FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 7 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 2 underwater (not deep DD) | 6 skipped (CSV) | 0 uncapped above water | 32 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $53,380/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $28,130/mo ⚡ $2,240/mo of that is earnings-blocked (1 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $1,339,103 locked in if all 23 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				TUNED	RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Tuned	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
CLSK ↗⚡ER 10d RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	25	$13.09	$16.99	25 × $15.50 $125 cyc · $1,250/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:14%hist 5%	20 × $15 $160 cyc · $1,600/mo 89% survhist 99% · T:22%hist 13%	🎯 18 × $14.50 $234 cyc · $2,340/mo 83% survhist 99% · T:35%hist 18%	22 × $14 $484 cyc · $4,840/mo 74% survhist 96% · T:53%hist 43%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$4,250 (45.5% IC)	29.9%
ENPH ↗⚡ER TMRW RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	10	$36.53	$58.88	10 × $45 $320 cyc · $3,200/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%	9 × $46 $144 cyc · $1,440/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:14%hist 5%	🎯⚡ 7 × $45 $224 cyc · $2,240/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%	10 × $43.50 $430 cyc · $4,300/mo 88% survhist 99% · T:26%hist 13%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,164	-$9,492 (130.0% IC)	61.2%
INTC ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$86.95	$117.58	5 × $99 $245 cyc · $2,450/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:19%hist 5%	5 × $102 $140 cyc · $1,400/mo 95% survhist 100% · T:11%hist 5%	🎯 5 × $100 $205 cyc · $2,050/mo 92% survhist 100% · T:16%hist 5%	5 × $96 $420 cyc · $4,200/mo 85% survhist 99% · T:30%hist 18%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,071	-$8,584 (59.2% IC)	35.2%
IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	20	$34.56	$49.63	—	19 × $42 $437 cyc · $4,370/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:15%hist 5%	🎯 16 × $40 $656 cyc · $6,560/mo 87% survhist 99% · T:28%hist 13%	20 × $38.50 $1,300 cyc · $13,000/mo 80% survhist 96% · T:42%hist 28%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$14,752 (46.1% IC)	43.6%
IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	20	$34.56	$49.63	—	19 × $42 $437 cyc · $4,370/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:15%hist 5%	🎯 16 × $40 $656 cyc · $6,560/mo 87% survhist 99% · T:28%hist 13%	20 × $38.50 $1,300 cyc · $13,000/mo 80% survhist 96% · T:42%hist 28%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$14,752 (46.1% IC)	43.6%
MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 10d Main:1299 · This Fri	200	$10.96	$14.18	200 × $1410d $2,000 cyc · $6,000/mo 92% survhist 100% · T:17%hist 5%	158 × $12.50 $948 cyc · $9,480/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:21%hist 13%	🎯 103 × $12 $1,442 cyc · $14,420/mo 82% survhist 99% · T:38%hist 18%	115 × $11.50 $2,875 cyc · $28,750/mo 69% survhist 80% · T:64%hist 51%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$21,047 (191.3% IC)	29.4%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗⚡ER 8d Main:1299 · This Fri	125	$21.26	$33.86	125 × $2710d $2,625 cyc · $7,875/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 5%	75 × $23.50 $1,275 cyc · $12,750/mo 85% survhist 99% · T:31%hist 18%	🎯 113 × $23.50 $1,921 cyc · $19,210/mo 85% survhist 99% · T:31%hist 18%	94 × $22.50 $3,854 cyc · $38,540/mo 73% survhist 96% · T:56%hist 43%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$879	-$115,192 (417.0% IC)	59.3%
TOTAL (7)	405	following every 🎯 $5,338 cyc · $53,380/mo		$5,315 cyc · $20,775/mo 5 of 7	$3,541 cyc · $35,410/mo	$5,338 cyc · $53,380/mo	$10,663 cyc · $106,630/mo		$5,115	-$188,069

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.46/sh	+$1,154 cycle +$1,279 [+$1,102…+$1,452] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$1,839 NOT cap gain +$6,236
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$269 cycle +$394 [-$36…+$457] · 73% credit	74% surv 66%	-$846 NOT cap gain +$7,229
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.14/sh	+$355 cycle +$480 [-$72…+$580] · 73% credit	81% surv 77%	+$3,344 SAFE cap gain +$11,419
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$19	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.03/sh	-$76 cycle +$49 [-$596…+$142] · 43% credit	85% surv 83%	+$4,967 SAFE cap gain +$13,042
budget: banked $125 debit $76 (61% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$49 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $1,845/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $15-15.56	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $15.56	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$15.50 (1.9σ)	$125	$-2,993	+$5,082	+$100
+2.5%	$15.89 (2.2σ)	$-844	$-3,167	+$4,908	-$869
+5%	$16.28 (2.5σ)	$-1,813	$-3,340	+$4,735	-$1,838
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (6.1σ)	$-12,975	$-5,338	+$2,737	-$13,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$15	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.44/sh	+$876 cycle +$1,036 [+$755…+$1,017] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$3,104 NOT cap gain +$4,971
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.23/sh	+$466 cycle +$626 [+$161…+$596] · 84% credit	80% surv 75%	+$1,443 SAFE cap gain +$9,518
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$174 cycle +$334 [-$83…+$284] · 64% credit	74% surv 67%	-$1,927 NOT cap gain +$6,148
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.10/sh	+$207 cycle +$367 [-$161…+$329] · 59% credit	82% surv 78%	+$2,211 SAFE cap gain +$10,286
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$19	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.06/sh	-$123 cycle +$37 [-$574…-$18] · 24% credit	86% surv 84%	+$3,933 SAFE cap gain +$12,008
budget: banked $160 debit $123 (77% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$37 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,319/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $15-15.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $15.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$15.00 (1.5σ)	$160	$-3,979	+$4,096	+$140
+2.5%	$15.37 (1.8σ)	$-590	$-3,960	+$4,115	-$610
+5%	$15.75 (2.1σ)	$-1,340	$-3,940	+$4,135	-$1,360
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (6.1σ)	$-11,320	$-3,678	+$4,397	-$11,340

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$14	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.41/sh	+$747 cycle +$981 [+$628…+$864] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%	-$4,183 NOT cap gain +$3,892
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$344 cycle +$578 [+$25…+$411] · 77% credit	80% surv 76%	+$371 SAFE cap gain +$8,446
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$15	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.07/sh	+$121 cycle +$355 [-$150…+$174] · 50% credit	75% surv 67%	-$2,930 NOT cap gain +$5,145
Max even-money escape in the band	~$17	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$121 cycle +$355 [-$260…+$169] · 43% credit	82% surv 79%	+$1,175 SAFE cap gain +$9,250
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$18	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.09/sh	-$163 cycle +$71 [-$619…-$141] · 10% credit	86% surv 85%	+$2,943 SAFE cap gain +$11,018
budget: banked $234 debit $163 (70% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,054/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.36	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $14-14.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $14.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$14.50 (1.1σ)	$234	$-4,930	+$3,145	+$216
+2.5%	$14.86 (1.4σ)	$-418	$-4,838	+$3,237	-$436
+5%	$15.23 (1.7σ)	$-1,071	$-4,747	+$3,328	-$1,089
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (6.1σ)	$-10,998	$-3,354	+$4,721	-$11,016

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (22 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$14	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.39/sh	+$864 cycle +$1,348 [+$683…+$974] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%	-$4,846 NOT cap gain +$3,229
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$16	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$332 cycle +$816 [-$181…+$341] · 62% credit	81% surv 77%	-$421 NOT cap gain +$7,654
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$15	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$107 cycle +$591 [-$311…+$106] · 33% credit	75% surv 68%	-$3,725 NOT cap gain +$4,350
Max even-money escape in the band	~$17	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$74 cycle +$558 [-$513…+$42] · 28% credit	83% surv 80%	+$347 SAFE cap gain +$8,422
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$18	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.12/sh	-$257 cycle +$227 [-$950…-$335] · 5% credit	87% surv 85%	+$2,068 SAFE cap gain +$10,143
budget: banked $484 debit $257 (53% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$227 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $1,133/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $14-14.28	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $14.28	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$14.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$484	$-5,710	+$2,365	+$462
+2.5%	$14.35 (1.0σ)	$-286	$-5,762	+$2,313	-$308
+5%	$14.70 (1.3σ)	$-1,056	$-5,813	+$2,262	-$1,078
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (6.1σ)	$-14,344	$-6,704	+$1,371	-$14,366

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (7 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$14	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.37/sh	+$259 cycle +$497 [+$186…+$266] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%	-$6,708 NOT cap gain +$1,367
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$15	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.22/sh	+$157 cycle +$395 [-$19…+$114] · 71% credit	79% surv 74%	-$2,879 NOT cap gain +$5,196
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$14	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$21 cycle +$259 [-$138…-$18] · 20% credit	76% surv 69%	-$5,068 NOT cap gain +$3,007
Max even-money escape in the band	~$16	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.00/sh	+$1 cycle +$239 [-$227…-$51] · 15% credit	84% surv 81%	-$983 NOT cap gain +$7,092
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$18	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.27/sh	-$192 cycle +$46 [-$507…-$262]	91% surv 91%	+$2,929 SAFE cap gain +$11,004
budget: banked $238 debit $192 (81% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $187/mo while parked; 18 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.37	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $13-14.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $14.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$13.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$238	$-6,967	+$1,108	+$231
+2.5%	$13.84 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2	$-6,511	+$1,564	-$5
+5%	$14.18 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-235	$-6,054	+$2,021	-$242
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (6.1σ)	$-4,830	$2,825	+$10,900	-$4,837

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$13	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.35/sh	+$175 cycle +$465	68% surv 53%	-$7,590 NOT cap gain +$485
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$14	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$66 cycle +$356	72% surv 62%	-$6,847 NOT cap gain +$1,228
Max even-money escape in the band	~$16	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.06/sh	+$30 cycle +$320	83% surv 79%	-$2,778 NOT cap gain +$5,297
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$18	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.29/sh	-$144 cycle +$146	92% surv 92%	+$2,180 SAFE cap gain +$10,255
budget: banked $290 debit $144 (49% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$146 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $108/mo while parked; 20 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $12.87	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $13-13.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $13.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$13.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$290	$-7,765	+$310	+$285
+2.5%	$13.32 (≤1σ, normal week)	$128	$-7,435	+$640	+$122
+5%	$13.65 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-35	$-6,930	+$1,145	-$40
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (6.1σ)	$-3,580	$4,077	+$12,152	-$3,585

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.57/sh	+$570 cycle +$890 [-$441…+$918] · 62% credit	69% surv 60%	-$12,406 NOT cap gain +$11,924
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.17/sh	+$169 cycle +$489 [-$415…+$555] · 57% credit	68% surv 53%	-$14,439 NOT cap gain +$9,891
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$170 cycle +$490 [-$972…+$503] · 47% credit	71% surv 63%	-$11,697 NOT cap gain +$12,633
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.06/sh	-$56 cycle +$264 [-$1,265…+$263] · 39% credit	73% surv 66%	-$10,812 NOT cap gain +$13,518
budget: banked $320 debit $56 (17% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$264 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,705/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.39	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.39	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (2.1σ)	$320	$-14,608	+$9,722	+$300
+2.5%	$46.12 (2.4σ)	$-805	$-14,485	+$9,845	-$825
+5%	$47.25 (2.7σ)	$-1,930	$-14,361	+$9,969	-$1,950
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-10,830	$-13,382	+$10,948	-$10,700

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.65/sh	+$587 cycle +$731 [-$542…+$938] · 61% credit	68% surv 58%	-$12,009 NOT cap gain +$12,321
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$129 cycle +$273 [-$518…+$484] · 56% credit	68% surv 53%	-$13,543 NOT cap gain +$10,787
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$136 cycle +$280 [-$1,124…+$467] · 44% credit	71% surv 63%	-$10,794 NOT cap gain +$13,536
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.07/sh	-$67 cycle +$77 [-$1,384…+$258] · 36% credit	73% surv 66%	-$9,888 NOT cap gain +$14,442
budget: banked $144 debit $67 (47% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$77 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,387/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (2.4σ)	$144	$-13,672	+$10,658	+$126
+2.5%	$47.15 (2.7σ)	$-891	$-13,431	+$10,899	-$909
+5%	$48.30 (3.0σ)	$-1,926	$-13,189	+$11,141	-$1,944
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-8,991	$-11,556	+$12,774	-$8,874

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (7 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.67/sh	+$468 cycle +$692 [-$468…+$699] · 62% credit	68% surv 58%	-$13,154 NOT cap gain +$11,176
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.17/sh	+$118 cycle +$342 [-$448…+$370] · 51% credit	68% surv 53%	-$14,580 NOT cap gain +$9,750
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$119 cycle +$343 [-$912…+$336] · 41% credit	71% surv 63%	-$11,838 NOT cap gain +$12,492
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.06/sh	-$39 cycle +$185 [-$1,115…+$166] · 35% credit	73% surv 66%	-$10,886 NOT cap gain +$13,444
budget: banked $224 debit $39 (17% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$185 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $2,593/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.39	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.39	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (2.1σ)	$224	$-14,698	+$9,632	+$210
+2.5%	$46.12 (2.4σ)	$-563	$-14,237	+$10,093	-$577
+5%	$47.25 (2.7σ)	$-1,351	$-13,776	+$10,554	-$1,365
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-7,581	$-10,172	+$14,158	-$7,490

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$44	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.69/sh	+$690 cycle +$1,120 [-$428…+$1,001] · 61% credit	69% surv 59%	-$14,397 NOT cap gain +$9,933
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.21/sh	+$206 cycle +$636 [-$529…+$554] · 52% credit	68% surv 53%	-$15,958 NOT cap gain +$8,372
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$195 cycle +$625 [-$1,020…+$478] · 40% credit	71% surv 63%	-$13,227 NOT cap gain +$11,103
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.42/sh	-$425 cycle +$5 [-$1,806…-$187] · 18% credit	74% surv 69%	-$11,627 NOT cap gain +$12,703
budget: banked $430 debit $425 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,075/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.06	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $43-44.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $44.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 33 active short call(s) 1 watch · 3 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$309.54

$331.10

$4.88

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MARA-LC20-1299

Main:1299

200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$10.91

$16.07

$0.01

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$164.84

$210.57

$0.74

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$67.22

$100.20

$0.31

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPY

Neville:0865

12x $750C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$738.09

$751.66

$1.08

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$327.36

$341.21

$1.41

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$327.36

$340.91

$1.41

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

APP

RetireInc:7291

1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$412.25

$441.92

$6.70

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

20x $80.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$75.73

$81.08

$0.40

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$230.73

$257.58

$1.23

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$161.04

$181.89

$2.10

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RKLB

RetireInc:7291

6x $72C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$63.27

$72.75

$0.45

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$109.08

$126.30

$1.05

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC45

Neville:0865

20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$34.28

$41.13

$0.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC50

RetireInc:7291

20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$34.28

$41.08

$0.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HIMS

Main:1299

15x $35C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$29.55

$35.26

$0.07

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$831.70

$1,007.92

$2.79

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1020C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$831.70

$1,026.25

$1.96

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

5x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$327.36

$344.61

$2.69

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $637.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$597.57

$654.07

$13.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$195.00

$211.74

$1.22

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$161.04

$187.68

$3.08

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NEM

Main:1299

5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$91.79

$107.00

$0.69

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC10

RetireInc:7291

50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$16.96

$20.75

$0.17

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC23-1299

Main:1299

75x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$16.96

$21.20

$0.21

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC23-1782

Joint:1782

88x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$16.96

$21.20

$0.21

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

$96.06

$113.05

$2.48

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

$96.06

$113.08

$2.48

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC145

RetireInc:7291

3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

$161.04

$198.70

$2.86

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UAMY

RetireInc:7291

25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

$5.20

$7.35

$0.15

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)

$369.54

$396.32

$2.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)

$386.22

$505.00

$9.18

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (52d)

$107.48

$124.07

$5.05

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress

Acct

Price

CC-SS

↑ whole

Sell strike

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income @ strike

Normal income

Action

IGV ↗

Main:1299

$90.90

$86.41

0.0%

$94 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 82% survhist 99%

37%hist 18%

$420

$4,200/mo (71%)

$5,929/mo

sell 12x $94 CC SIM ▾

RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 8d

Joint:1782

$20.77

$21.22

2.2%

$23 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 82% survhist 99% LAST CLEAN

38%hist 18%

$1,200

$12,000/mo (83%)

$14,471/mo

sell 50x $23 CC SIM ▾

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 6 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	62	$16.96	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 44.0% below BE SS · 88 of 150 capped · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$16.96	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.13	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 18.5% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$35.74	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$10.91	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$10.91	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 58.7% below BE SS

CAPPED: 32 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.13	50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$39.13	75x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $80C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $342C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $35C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$22.69	200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)]
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $638C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1020C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (52d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $208C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $72C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $750C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.45	25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 1418 of 1782 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	130	55%	72%	+16pp
60-70%	196	64%	72%	+8pp
70-80%	259	76%	96%	+20pp
80-90%	305	84%	96%	+12pp
90-100%	528	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 28% touch rate over 1418 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 105 real buyback(s) recorded · 39 roll(s), net +$1.18/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 39 real rolls: buyback $4.31/sh, replacement credit financed 127% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.18/sh (27 of 39 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-07-28 21:35

Gross FIGHT income	$1,250/mo
vs 50% target ($2,327/mo)	-46%
vs normal income ($4,654/mo)	27% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,250/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,603
… as % of IC ($9,350)	38.5%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	13.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-8,100

Gross FIGHT income	$1,600/mo
vs 50% target ($2,327/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($4,654/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,615/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,823
… as % of IC ($9,350)	40.9%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	14.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-6,480

Gross FIGHT income	$2,340/mo
vs 50% target ($2,327/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($4,654/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,361/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,250
… as % of IC ($9,350)	45.5%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	15.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-5,868

Gross FIGHT income	$4,840/mo
vs 50% target ($2,327/mo)	+108%
vs normal income ($4,654/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,849/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,097
… as % of IC ($9,350)	65.2%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	22.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)	$-7,238

Gross FIGHT income	$2,380/mo
vs 50% target ($2,327/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($4,654/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,434/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,206
… as % of IC ($9,350)	23.6%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	8.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (7 ct)	$-2,440

Gross FIGHT income	$2,900/mo
vs 50% target ($2,327/mo)	+25%
vs normal income ($4,654/mo)	62% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,960/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,706
… as % of IC ($9,350)	18.2%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	6.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-1,640

Gross FIGHT income	$3,200/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	+58%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	79% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,698/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,560
… as % of IC ($7,300)	185.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	28.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,400

Gross FIGHT income	$1,440/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$942/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,448
… as % of IC ($7,300)	156.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	24.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-22,036

Gross FIGHT income	$2,240/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	+10%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,749/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,492
… as % of IC ($7,300)	130.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	20.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (7 ct)	$-17,080

Gross FIGHT income	$4,300/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,798/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,950
… as % of IC ($7,300)	204.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	31.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.7 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,495

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$43.50 (1.8σ)	$430	$-16,163	+$8,167	+$410
+2.5%	$44.59 (2.0σ)	$-657	$-16,044	+$8,286	-$677
+5%	$45.68 (2.3σ)	$-1,745	$-15,924	+$8,406	-$1,765
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-12,220	$-14,772	+$9,558	-$12,090

Gross FIGHT income	$600/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-70%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$98/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,320
… as % of IC ($7,300)	155.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	23.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,490

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.72	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.72	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.50 (2.8σ)	$60	$-12,093	+$12,237	+$40
+2.5%	$48.69 (3.1σ)	$-1,127	$-11,963	+$12,367	-$1,147
+5%	$49.88 (3.4σ)	$-2,315	$-11,832	+$12,498	-$2,335
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-8,590	$-11,142	+$13,188	-$8,460

Gross FIGHT income	$1,100/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-46%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	27% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$598/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,770
… as % of IC ($7,300)	161.2%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	24.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,475

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.26	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.26	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (2.6σ)	$110	$-12,598	+$11,732	+$90
+2.5%	$48.17 (2.9σ)	$-1,065	$-12,469	+$11,861	-$1,085
+5%	$49.35 (3.2σ)	$-2,240	$-12,340	+$11,990	-$2,260
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-9,040	$-11,592	+$12,738	-$8,910

Gross FIGHT income	$1,200/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-41%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	30% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$698/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,260
… as % of IC ($7,300)	167.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	25.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,485

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.03	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.50 (2.5σ)	$120	$-13,143	+$11,187	+$100
+2.5%	$47.66 (2.8σ)	$-1,042	$-13,015	+$11,315	-$1,062
+5%	$48.83 (3.1σ)	$-2,205	$-12,888	+$11,442	-$2,225
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-9,530	$-12,082	+$12,248	-$9,400

Gross FIGHT income	$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-1%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	49% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,498/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,180
… as % of IC ($7,300)	180.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	27.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,490