FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 5 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 4 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 1 uncapped above water | 23 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $17,149/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $5,897/mo · plus $23,640/mo CC-safe on 4 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $842,395 locked in if all 10 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
AMZN ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	5	$249.49	$270.32	5 × $275 23 Oct (22d) $450 cyc · $614/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14%	—	🎯 5 × $260 9 Oct (8d) $530 cyc · $1,988/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 33%	5 × $257.50 9 Oct (8d) $765 cyc · $2,869/mo 77% survhist 82% · T:47%hist 41%	5 × $252.50 9 Oct (8d) $1,500 cyc · $5,625/mo 62% survhist 64% · T:78%hist 68%	$1,422	-$4,631 (13.6% IC)	8.4%
APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	1	$286.68	$609.74	—	1 × $320 9 Oct (8d) $125 cyc · $469/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	🎯 1 × $310 9 Oct (8d) $250 cyc · $938/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 33%	1 × $302.50 9 Oct (8d) $350 cyc · $1,312/mo 75% survhist 82% · T:51%hist 46%	1 × $292.50 9 Oct (8d) $660 cyc · $2,475/mo 61% survhist 64% · T:80%hist 68%	$2,598	-$29,724 (232.2% IC)	112.7%
IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	20	$40.20	$57.82	20 × $58 23 Oct (22d) $300 cyc · $409/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:7%hist 3%	20 × $46.50 9 Oct (8d) $540 cyc · $2,025/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	🎯 19 × $45 9 Oct (8d) $798 cyc · $2,992/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 33%	19 × $43.50 9 Oct (8d) $1,273 cyc · $4,774/mo 78% survhist 82% · T:45%hist 41%	18 × $41 9 Oct (8d) $2,520 cyc · $9,450/mo 59% survhist 68% · T:84%hist 80%	$5,471	-$23,567 (392.8% IC)	43.9%
IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	20	$40.20	$66.43	20 × $65 23 Oct (22d) $140 cyc · $191/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3%	20 × $46.50 9 Oct (8d) $540 cyc · $2,025/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	🎯 19 × $45 9 Oct (8d) $798 cyc · $2,992/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 33%	19 × $43.50 9 Oct (8d) $1,273 cyc · $4,774/mo 78% survhist 82% · T:45%hist 41%	18 × $41 9 Oct (8d) $2,520 cyc · $9,450/mo 59% survhist 68% · T:84%hist 80%	$4,076	-$39,910 (291.3% IC)	65.3%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
CRCL ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$83.13	$90.45	🎯 5 × $91 9 Oct (8d) $520 cyc · $1,950/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 33% above floor +$275 · hole 1.9mo	5 × $96 9 Oct (8d) $215 cyc · $806/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14% above floor +$2,775 · hole 4.5mo	5 × $92 9 Oct (8d) $425 cyc · $1,594/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 33% above floor +$775 · hole 2.3mo	5 × $90 9 Oct (8d) $610 cyc · $2,288/mo 79% survhist 82% · T:43%hist 41% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 1.6mo	5 × $85 9 Oct (8d) $1,355 cyc · $5,081/mo 61% survhist 64% · T:81%hist 80% locks −$1,370 · hole 0.7mo	$280	+$275 whole if assigned	8.8% whole ~27 Nov on 🎯
DELL ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	3	$532.40	$570.70	🎯 3 × $572.50 9 Oct (8d) $1,710 cyc · $6,412/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 33% above floor +$541 · hole 1.8mo	3 × $595 9 Oct (8d) $783 cyc · $2,936/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 25% above floor +$7,291 · hole 3.9mo	3 × $580 9 Oct (8d) $1,335 cyc · $5,006/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 33% above floor +$2,791 · hole 2.3mo	3 × $567.50 9 Oct (8d) $2,025 cyc · $7,594/mo 78% survhist 82% · T:45%hist 41% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 1.5mo	3 × $542.50 9 Oct (8d) $4,290 cyc · $16,088/mo 60% survhist 64% · T:82%hist 80% locks −$4,169 · hole 0.7mo	$1,059	+$541 whole if assigned	7.2% whole ~24 Nov on 🎯
HOOD ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	10	$113.16	$119.67	🎯 10 × $122 9 Oct (8d) $1,290 cyc · $4,838/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 33% above floor +$2,327 · hole 1.3mo	10 × $126 9 Oct (8d) $720 cyc · $2,700/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% above floor +$6,327 · hole 2.4mo	9 × $123 9 Oct (8d) $999 cyc · $3,746/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 33% above floor +$2,994 · hole 1.7mo	9 × $120 9 Oct (8d) $1,539 cyc · $5,771/mo 76% survhist 82% · T:49%hist 41% above floor +$294 · hole 1.1mo	10 × $116 9 Oct (8d) $2,960 cyc · $11,100/mo 63% survhist 64% · T:76%hist 68% locks −$713 · hole 0.6mo	$523	+$2,327 whole if assigned	5.8% whole ~11 Nov on 🎯
SPY ↗ ⚐ ▼ DOWN -0.5% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	12	$763.36	$702.66	🎯 12 × $771 5 Oct (4d) $1,392 cyc · $10,440/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 33% above floor +$82,004	12 × $780 9 Oct (8d) $936 cyc · $3,510/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14% above floor +$92,804	12 × $776 9 Oct (8d) $1,800 cyc · $6,750/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 33% above floor +$88,004	12 × $773 9 Oct (8d) $2,784 cyc · $10,440/mo 76% survhist 82% · T:48%hist 41% above floor +$84,404	12 × $767 9 Oct (8d) $5,712 cyc · $21,420/mo 60% survhist 64% · T:80%hist 80% above floor +$77,204	$5,995	+$82,004 whole if assigned	0.0%
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ETHA Main:1299	50	$20.33	$17.33 BE	+17.3% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 19d Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$22.74	$35.08	25 × $35 16 Oct (15d) $50 cyc · $100/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:2%hist 3%	25 × $27 9 Oct (8d) $150 cyc · $562/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	22 × $25.50 9 Oct (8d) $616 cyc · $2,310/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 33%	🎯 24 × $25 9 Oct (8d) $912 cyc · $3,420/mo 79% survhist 82% · T:43%hist 41%	23 × $23.50 9 Oct (8d) $1,840 cyc · $6,900/mo 63% survhist 64% · T:78%hist 68%	$6,095	-$23,284 (421.4% IC)	54.3%
TOTAL (9)	101	following every 🎯 $8,200 cyc · $35,970/mo		$5,852 cyc · $24,954/mo 8 of 9	$4,009 cyc · $15,034/mo 8 of 9	$7,551 cyc · $28,316/mo	$11,531 cyc · $43,241/mo	$23,357 cyc · $87,589/mo	$27,519	-$121,117

Spot \ Time	≥ 12d left	3-11d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $272.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $272-275.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $275.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$275.00 (1.5σ)	$450	$3,107	+$14,162	+$3,995
+2.5%	$281.88 (1.8σ)	$-2,988	$3,364	+$14,419	+$3,995
+5%	$288.75 (2.2σ)	$-6,425	$3,622	+$14,677	+$3,995

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$261	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$2.80/sh	+$1,399 cycle +$1,929 [+$1,170…+$1,605] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$3,203 NOT cap gain +$7,852
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$260	12 Oct 2026	7d left	+$0.22/sh	+$109 cycle +$639 [-$38…+$258] · 65% credit	66% surv 51%	-$4,767 NOT cap gain +$6,288
Max even-money escape in the band	~$266	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.47/sh	+$237 cycle +$767 [-$144…+$336] · 57% credit	73% surv 64%	-$1,677 NOT cap gain +$9,378
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$261	12 Oct 2026	7d left	+$0.02/sh	+$10 cycle +$540 [-$151…+$130] · 43% credit	67% surv 53%	-$4,591 NOT cap gain +$6,464
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$271	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.82/sh	-$412 cycle +$118 [-$918…-$341] · 9% credit	79% surv 75%	+$362 SAFE cap gain +$11,417
budget: banked $530 debit $412 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,112/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $257.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $257-261.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $261.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$260.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$530	$-4,876	+$6,179	+$325
+2.5%	$266.50 (1.6σ)	$-2,720	$-4,632	+$6,423	-$2,925
+5%	$273.00 (2.2σ)	$-5,970	$-4,388	+$6,667	-$3,425

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$258	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$2.86/sh	+$1,429 cycle +$2,194 [+$1,148…+$1,518] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$4,281 NOT cap gain +$6,774
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$258	12 Oct 2026	7d left	+$0.27/sh	+$135 cycle +$900 [-$44…+$203] · 63% credit	66% surv 51%	-$5,849 NOT cap gain +$5,206
Max even-money escape in the band	~$263	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.53/sh	+$267 cycle +$1,032 [-$207…+$243] · 52% credit	72% surv 64%	-$2,756 NOT cap gain +$8,299
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$258	12 Oct 2026	7d left	+$0.07/sh	+$37 cycle +$802 [-$157…+$84] · 38% credit	67% surv 53%	-$5,673 NOT cap gain +$5,382
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$268	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.77/sh	-$383 cycle +$382 [-$1,000…-$467] · 9% credit	79% surv 75%	-$719 NOT cap gain +$10,336
budget: banked $765 debit $383 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$382 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,132/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $254.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $255-259.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $259.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$257.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$765	$-5,985	+$5,070	+$560
+2.5%	$263.94 (1.4σ)	$-2,454	$-5,743	+$5,312	-$2,659
+5%	$270.38 (2.0σ)	$-5,672	$-5,502	+$5,553	-$4,440

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$253	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$2.97/sh	+$1,487 cycle +$2,987 [+$1,126…+$1,367] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,176 NOT cap gain +$4,879
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$252	12 Oct 2026	7d left	+$0.37/sh	+$187 cycle +$1,687 [-$47…+$111] · 56% credit	66% surv 51%	-$7,750 NOT cap gain +$3,305
Max even-money escape in the band	~$258	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.65/sh	+$323 cycle +$1,823 [-$260…+$102] · 39% credit	72% surv 64%	-$4,652 NOT cap gain +$6,403
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$253	12 Oct 2026	7d left	+$0.18/sh	+$89 cycle +$1,589 [-$157…+$2] · 25% credit	67% surv 53%	-$7,574 NOT cap gain +$3,481
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$273	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$2.31/sh	-$1,153 cycle +$347 [-$2,130…-$1,509]	91% surv 90%	+$1,934 SAFE cap gain +$12,989
budget: banked $1,500 debit $1,153 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$347 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $796/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $249.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $250-255.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $255.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$252.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,500	$-7,937	+$3,118	+$1,295
+2.5%	$258.81 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,656	$-7,700	+$3,355	-$1,861
+5%	$265.12 (1.5σ)	$-4,812	$-7,464	+$3,591	-$5,018
SS (= V-bounce)	$267.92 (1.7σ)	$-6,210	$-7,359	+$3,696	-$6,205

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$320	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$2.76/sh	+$276 cycle +$401 [+$209…+$409] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$30,485 NOT cap gain +$4,080
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$328	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.87/sh	+$87 cycle +$212 [-$87…+$224] · 61% credit	70% surv 61%	-$29,756 NOT cap gain +$4,809
Max even-money escape in the band	~$333	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.72/sh	+$72 cycle +$197 [-$93…+$198] · 59% credit	74% surv 66%	-$29,219 NOT cap gain +$5,346
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$326	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.47/sh	+$47 cycle +$172 [-$69…+$156] · 58% credit	71% surv 60%	-$30,072 NOT cap gain +$4,493
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$338	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.67/sh	-$67 cycle +$58 [-$261…+$47] · 30% credit	77% surv 71%	-$28,806 NOT cap gain +$5,759
budget: banked $125 debit $67 (53% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,248/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $316.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $317-321.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $321.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$320.00 (1.4σ)	$125	$-30,761	+$3,804	+$120
+2.5%	$328.00 (1.7σ)	$-675	$-30,678	+$3,887	-$680
+5%	$336.00 (2.1σ)	$-1,475	$-30,595	+$3,970	-$1,480
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (12.7σ)	$-26,675	$-27,974	+$6,591	-$9,880

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$313	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$4.50/sh	+$450 cycle +$700 [+$307…+$559] · 98% credit	69% surv 56%	-$30,924 NOT cap gain +$3,641
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$310	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$2.96/sh	+$296 cycle +$546 [+$188…+$396] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$31,444 NOT cap gain +$3,121
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$316	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.68/sh	+$68 cycle +$318 [-$82…+$121] · 53% credit	71% surv 60%	-$31,030 NOT cap gain +$3,535
Max even-money escape in the band	~$323	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.91/sh	+$91 cycle +$341 [-$113…+$154] · 51% credit	74% surv 66%	-$30,179 NOT cap gain +$4,386
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$333	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.80/sh	-$180 cycle +$70 [-$442…-$140] · 14% credit	80% surv 75%	-$29,346 NOT cap gain +$5,219
budget: banked $250 debit $180 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,016/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $306.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $307-312.73	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $312.73	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$310.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$250	$-31,740	+$2,825	+$245
+2.5%	$317.75 (1.3σ)	$-525	$-31,660	+$2,905	-$530
+5%	$325.50 (1.6σ)	$-1,300	$-31,579	+$2,986	-$1,305
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (12.7σ)	$-27,550	$-28,849	+$5,716	-$10,755

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$306	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$4.63/sh	+$463 cycle +$813 [+$293…+$505] · 99% credit	69% surv 56%	-$31,639 NOT cap gain +$2,926
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$302	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$3.10/sh	+$310 cycle +$660 [+$183…+$352] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$32,158 NOT cap gain +$2,407
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$308	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.82/sh	+$82 cycle +$432 [-$84…+$93] · 48% credit	71% surv 60%	-$31,744 NOT cap gain +$2,821
Max even-money escape in the band	~$316	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.05/sh	+$105 cycle +$455 [-$122…+$109] · 47% credit	74% surv 66%	-$30,893 NOT cap gain +$3,672
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$331	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$3.28/sh	-$328 cycle +$22 [-$656…-$358] · 1% credit	82% surv 79%	-$29,670 NOT cap gain +$4,895
budget: banked $350 debit $328 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$22 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $739/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $299.48	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $299-306.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $306.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$302.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$350	$-32,468	+$2,097	+$345
+2.5%	$310.06 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-406	$-32,390	+$2,175	-$411
+5%	$317.62 (1.3σ)	$-1,162	$-32,311	+$2,254	-$1,168
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (12.7σ)	$-28,200	$-29,499	+$5,066	-$11,405

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$296	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$4.78/sh	+$478 cycle +$1,138 [+$262…+$394] · 98% credit	69% surv 56%	-$32,418 NOT cap gain +$2,147
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$292	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$3.27/sh	+$327 cycle +$987 [+$165…+$265] · 97% credit	67% surv 52%	-$32,935 NOT cap gain +$1,630
Max even-money escape in the band	~$306	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.21/sh	+$121 cycle +$781 [-$159…+$9] · 27% credit	74% surv 67%	-$31,671 NOT cap gain +$2,894
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$301	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.02/sh	+$2 cycle +$662 [-$231…-$89] · 11% credit	72% surv 63%	-$32,342 NOT cap gain +$2,223
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$341	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$5.72/sh	-$572 cycle +$88 [-$1,080…-$761]	91% surv 90%	-$28,500 NOT cap gain +$6,065
budget: banked $660 debit $572 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $289/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $289.57	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $290-299.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $299.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$292.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$660	$-33,262	+$1,303	+$655
+2.5%	$299.81 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-71	$-33,186	+$1,379	-$76
+5%	$307.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-802	$-33,110	+$1,455	-$808
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (12.7σ)	$-28,890	$-30,189	+$4,376	-$12,095

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$91	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.20/sh	+$601 cycle +$1,121 [+$415…+$730] · 98% credit	67% surv 52%	+$1,479 SAFE cap gain +$5,304
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$93	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.37/sh	+$187 cycle +$707 [-$75…+$272] · 64% credit	71% surv 59%	+$2,058 SAFE cap gain +$5,883
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$95	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$257 cycle +$777 [-$114…+$351] · 62% credit	73% surv 64%	+$3,192 SAFE cap gain +$7,017
Max even-money escape in the band	~$96	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.26/sh	+$131 cycle +$651 [-$263…+$215] · 44% credit	74% surv 67%	+$3,598 SAFE cap gain +$7,423
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$101	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.94/sh	-$472 cycle +$48 [-$994…-$445] · 5% credit	82% surv 79%	+$5,652 SAFE cap gain +$9,477
budget: banked $520 debit $472 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,586/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $90.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $90-92.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $92.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$91.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$520	$878	+$4,703	+$995
+2.5%	$93.27 (1.2σ)	$-617	$950	+$4,775	+$995
+5%	$95.55 (1.5σ)	$-1,755	$1,021	+$4,846	+$995

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.11/sh	+$553 cycle +$768 [+$494…+$851] · 98% credit	67% surv 52%	+$3,784 SAFE cap gain +$7,609
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$98	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.28/sh	+$138 cycle +$353 [-$0…+$371] · 74% credit	71% surv 59%	+$4,362 SAFE cap gain +$8,187
Max even-money escape in the band	~$101	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.18/sh	+$88 cycle +$303 [-$145…+$351] · 62% credit	74% surv 66%	+$5,907 SAFE cap gain +$9,732
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$103	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.33/sh	-$165 cycle +$50 [-$446…+$79] · 29% credit	77% surv 71%	+$6,716 SAFE cap gain +$10,541
budget: banked $215 debit $165 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,228/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $95-96.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $96.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 24 active short call(s) 1 watch · 5 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
SPCX	Neville:0865	5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)	$151.42	$156.11	$0.66	$0.66	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.58 OTM = 2.4% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $0.66 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$532 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $36.90/sh BELOW the $191.90 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $18,452 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $156.11 (breakeven).
COPX	Joint:1782	20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)	$82.98	$90.65	$0.05	$0.05	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.02 OTM = 8.5% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $0.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,206 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $89.55 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
CRWV	Neville:0865	5x $95C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)	$87.06	$96.03	$0.19	$0.19	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.94 OTM = 9.1% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $0.19 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$492 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $96.03 (breakeven).
AAPL	RetireInc:7291	5x $360C 5 Oct 2026 (4d)	$331.87	$360.14	$0.03	$0.03	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.13 OTM = 8.5% (5.1x a typical daily move). The $0.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$45 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $360.14 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (15d)	$40.22	$55.88	$0.15	$0.15	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.78 OTM = 36.8% (6.5x a typical daily move). The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (15d)	$40.22	$55.88	$0.15	$0.15	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.78 OTM = 36.8% (6.5x a typical daily move). The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven).
SNDK	Neville:0865	1x $1850C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)	$1,742.13	$1,861.43	$5.85	$5.85	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 107.87 OTM = 6.2% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $5.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,138 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,861.43 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)	$29.53	$32.28	$0.09	$0.09	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.47 OTM = 8.4% (1.3x a typical daily move). The $0.09 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$345 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $32.28 (breakeven).
GLXY	Main:1299	100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)	$22.74	$26.26	$0.08	$0.08	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.26 OTM = 14.3% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,131 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $25.87 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
NVDA	Main:1299	10x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (8d)	$230.49	$242.02	$1.14	$1.14	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.51 OTM = 4.1% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $1.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $242.02 (breakeven).
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (8d)	$70.19	$85.75	$0.23	$0.23	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.81 OTM = 21.1% (4.2x a typical daily move). The $0.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$422 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $85.75 (breakeven).
IGV	Main:1299	12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (15d)	$107.75	$112.23	$1.65	$1.65	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.25 OTM = 3.0% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $1.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (15d)	$342.55	$359.26	$4.30	$4.30	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.45 OTM = 3.6% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $4.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15x $367.5C 16 Oct 2026 (15d)	$342.55	$370.19	$1.86	$1.86	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 24.95 OTM = 7.3% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $1.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,955 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $370.19 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5x $367.5C 16 Oct 2026 (15d)	$342.55	$370.19	$1.86	$1.86	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 24.95 OTM = 7.3% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $1.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,318 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $370.19 (breakeven).
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (22d)	$1,048.92	$1,284.32	$9.22	$9.22	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 201.08 OTM = 19.2% (5.5x a typical daily move). The $9.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,854 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,284.32 (breakeven).
INTC	Neville:0865	5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (22d)	$119.21	$162.09	$0.95	$0.95	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 40.79 OTM = 34.2% (6.6x a typical daily move). The $0.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,019 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $162.09 (breakeven).
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (29d)	$190.39	$245.47	$2.48	$2.48	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 49.61 OTM = 26.1% (5.8x a typical daily move). The $2.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,548 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $245.47 (breakeven).
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (50d)	$157.63	$180.96	$11.75	$11.75	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.37 OTM = 7.8% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $11.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven).
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (50d)	$157.63	$180.95	$11.75	$11.75	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.37 OTM = 7.8% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $11.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven).
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (50d)	$183.41	$224.53	$4.35	$4.35	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 36.59 OTM = 19.9% (5.8x a typical daily move). The $4.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven).
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (50d)	$1,048.92	$1,376.43	$15.62	$15.62	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 301.08 OTM = 28.7% (7.9x a typical daily move). The $15.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,188 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,376.43 (breakeven).
GLD	Main:1299	10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (78d)	$381.40	$419.00	$6.12	$6.12	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.60 OTM = 8.3% (5.9x a typical daily move). The $6.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,949 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $419.00 (breakeven).
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (78d)	$190.39	$278.82	$4.83	$4.83	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 79.61 OTM = 41.8% (9.7x a typical daily move). The $4.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven).

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$27.09	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$27.09	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 25.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$27.09	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 58.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.77	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 38.5% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$32.05	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.9% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$47.49	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$11.28	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$11.28	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 72.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 23 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AAPL	RetireInc:7291	5	$334.64	5x $360C 5 Oct 2026 (4d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (78d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (29d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $95C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (78d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $368C 16 Oct 2026 (15d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $367.5C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (15d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $368C 16 Oct 2026 (15d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $367.5C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (15d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (22d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (15d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (15d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (50d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (50d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (50d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (22d)
NVDA	Main:1299	10	$264.80	10x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (8d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (50d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (8d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1850C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (1d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2914 of 3070 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	207	56%	61%	+5pp
60-70%	381	64%	61%	-3pp
70-80%	519	76%	82%	+6pp
80-90%	682	85%	84%	-0pp
90-100%	1125	94%	95%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2914 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 12 graded weeks; last week 1.36x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 167 real buyback(s) recorded · 84 roll(s), net +$0.58/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 84 real rolls: buyback $6.69/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.58/sh (58 of 84 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-10-01 21:47

Gross FIGHT income	$614/mo
vs 50% target ($2,712/mo)	-77%
vs normal income ($5,423/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$-229/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($33,960)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-11,095

Gross FIGHT income	$1,988/mo
vs 50% target ($2,712/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($5,423/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,144/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,631
… as % of IC ($33,960)	13.6%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	9.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-11,080

Gross FIGHT income	$2,869/mo
vs 50% target ($2,712/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($5,423/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,026/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,646
… as % of IC ($33,960)	16.6%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	11.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-11,085

Gross FIGHT income	$5,625/mo
vs 50% target ($2,712/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($5,423/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,782/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,411
… as % of IC ($33,960)	21.8%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	14.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-11,118

Gross FIGHT income	$469/mo
vs 50% target ($1,182/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($2,364/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$358/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,849
… as % of IC ($12,800)	225.4%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	59.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	12.2 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-34,580

Gross FIGHT income	$938/mo
vs 50% target ($1,182/mo)	-21%
vs normal income ($2,364/mo)	40% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$826/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$29,724
… as % of IC ($12,800)	232.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	61.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	12.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-34,588

Gross FIGHT income	$1,312/mo
vs 50% target ($1,182/mo)	+11%
vs normal income ($2,364/mo)	56% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,202/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,374
… as % of IC ($12,800)	237.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	62.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	12.8 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-34,620

Gross FIGHT income	$2,475/mo
vs 50% target ($1,182/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($2,364/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,364/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,064
… as % of IC ($12,800)	242.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	64.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	13.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-34,625

Gross FIGHT income	$1,950/mo
vs 50% target ($2,260/mo)	-14%
vs normal income ($4,520/mo)	43% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,881/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($21,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($33,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-3,860

Gross FIGHT income	$806/mo
vs 50% target ($2,260/mo)	-64%
vs normal income ($4,520/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$737/mo

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.00 (1.6σ)	$215	$3,230	+$7,055	+$3,190
+2.5%	$98.40 (1.8σ)	$-985	$3,306	+$7,131	+$3,190
+5%	$100.80 (2.1σ)	$-2,185	$3,382	+$7,207	+$3,190

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.18/sh	+$592 cycle +$1,017 [+$445…+$797] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	+$1,907 SAFE cap gain +$5,732
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$94	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.35/sh	+$177 cycle +$602 [-$31…+$325] · 69% credit	71% surv 59%	+$2,486 SAFE cap gain +$6,311
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$96	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.50/sh	+$250 cycle +$675 [-$51…+$417] · 68% credit	73% surv 64%	+$3,621 SAFE cap gain +$7,446
Max even-money escape in the band	~$97	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.25/sh	+$123 cycle +$548 [-$199…+$274] · 52% credit	74% surv 67%	+$4,026 SAFE cap gain +$7,851
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$101	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.77/sh	-$384 cycle +$41 [-$817…-$272] · 11% credit	80% surv 76%	+$5,645 SAFE cap gain +$9,470
budget: banked $425 debit $384 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$41 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,760/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$1,594/mo
vs 50% target ($2,260/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($4,520/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,524/mo

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $91.08	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $91-92.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $92.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$92.00 (1.1σ)	$425	$1,314	+$5,139	+$1,400
+2.5%	$94.30 (1.3σ)	$-725	$1,387	+$5,212	+$1,400
+5%	$96.60 (1.6σ)	$-1,875	$1,459	+$5,284	+$1,400

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$90	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.22/sh	+$610 cycle +$1,220 [+$398…+$702] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%	+$1,046 SAFE cap gain +$4,871
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$92	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.39/sh	+$195 cycle +$805 [-$96…+$241] · 61% credit	71% surv 60%	+$1,626 SAFE cap gain +$5,451
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$94	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.53/sh	+$265 cycle +$875 [-$150…+$310] · 61% credit	73% surv 64%	+$2,758 SAFE cap gain +$6,583
Max even-money escape in the band	~$95	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.28/sh	+$139 cycle +$749 [-$300…+$165] · 42% credit	74% surv 67%	+$3,164 SAFE cap gain +$6,989
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$101	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.19/sh	-$596 cycle +$14 [-$1,189…-$620] · 1% credit	84% surv 81%	+$5,618 SAFE cap gain +$9,443
budget: banked $610 debit $596 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,354/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$2,288/mo
vs 50% target ($2,260/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($4,520/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,218/mo

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $89.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $89-91.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $91.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$90.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$610	$436	+$4,261	+$585
+2.5%	$92.25 (1.1σ)	$-515	$507	+$4,332	+$585
+5%	$94.50 (1.4σ)	$-1,640	$578	+$4,403	+$585

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$85	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.30/sh	+$648 cycle +$2,003 [+$374…+$529] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%	-$828 NOT cap gain +$2,997
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$88	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.85/sh	+$425 cycle +$1,780 [-$70…+$219] · 66% credit	71% surv 62%	+$474 SAFE cap gain +$4,299
Max even-money escape in the band	~$90	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.34/sh	+$171 cycle +$1,526 [-$365…-$50] · 20% credit	75% surv 67%	+$1,283 SAFE cap gain +$5,108
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$88	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.04/sh	+$19 cycle +$1,374 [-$401…-$155] · 11% credit	73% surv 63%	+$68 SAFE cap gain +$3,893
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$101	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.73/sh	-$866 cycle +$489 [-$1,680…-$1,180]	90% surv 89%	+$6,093 SAFE cap gain +$9,918
budget: banked $1,355 debit $866 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$489 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $773/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Gross FIGHT income	$5,081/mo
vs 50% target ($2,260/mo)	+125%
vs normal income ($4,520/mo)	112% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,012/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,370
… as % of IC ($21,000)	6.5%
… as % of ML ($33,500)	4.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-3,872

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $84.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $84-87.81	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $87.81	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$85.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,355	$-1,476	+$2,349	-$170
+2.5%	$87.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$293	$-1,409	+$2,416	-$1,170
+5%	$89.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-770	$-1,342	+$2,483	-$1,170

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$572	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$7.02/sh	+$2,106 cycle +$3,816 [+$1,514…+$2,472] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	+$4,605 SAFE cap gain +$16,074
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$590	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$4.78/sh	+$1,435 cycle +$3,145 [+$279…+$1,673] · 82% credit	72% surv 62%	+$9,315 SAFE cap gain +$20,784
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$585	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.41/sh	+$422 cycle +$2,132 [-$504…+$583] · 50% credit	72% surv 61%	+$6,773 SAFE cap gain +$18,242
Max even-money escape in the band	~$600	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.29/sh	+$387 cycle +$2,097 [-$964…+$524] · 41% credit	75% surv 67%	+$11,324 SAFE cap gain +$22,793
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$620	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$4.68/sh	-$1,405 cycle +$305 [-$3,216…-$1,429] · 6% credit	80% surv 76%	+$15,646 SAFE cap gain +$27,115
budget: banked $1,710 debit $1,405 (82% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $5,608/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$6,412/mo
vs 50% target ($7,500/mo)	-15%
vs normal income ($15,000/mo)	43% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,903/mo