FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $30,100/mo (51% of normal target)
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | TUNED | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Tuned | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| ENPH ↗⚡ER 7d RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 10 | $40.11 | $59.19 | 10 × $44.50 $130 cyc · $1,950/mo 92% surv · T:16% | 7 × $44 $140 cyc · $2,100/mo 90% surv · T:21% | 🎯 10 × $43.50 $230 cyc · $3,450/mo 87% surv · T:16% | 10 × $42 $470 cyc · $7,050/mo 75% surv · T:52% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $2,164 | -$15,455 (211.7% IC) | 47.6% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗⚡ER 14d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 125 | $25.11 | $33.33 | 125 × $31 $2,375 cyc · $7,917/mo 90% surv · T:20% | 101 × $28.50 $5,252 cyc · $17,507/mo 80% surv · T:42% | 🎯 123 × $28 $7,995 cyc · $26,650/mo 76% surv · T:37% | 115 × $25.50 $15,985 cyc · $53,283/mo 57% surv · T:92% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $879 | -$57,617 (208.6% IC) | 32.8% |
| TOTAL (2) | 135 | following every 🎯 $8,225 cyc · $30,100/mo | $2,505 cyc · $9,867/mo | $5,392 cyc · $19,607/mo | $8,225 cyc · $30,100/mo | $16,455 cyc · $60,333/mo | $3,043 | -$73,072 | |||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.91/sh | +$1,907 cycle +$2,037 [+$1,581…+$1,969] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$13,815 NOT cap gain +$6,910 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$417 cycle +$547 [-$277…+$487] · 62% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$6,547 NOT cap gain +$14,178 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$130 cycle +$260 [-$576…+$119] · 38% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$9,055 NOT cap gain +$11,670 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$59 cycle +$189 [-$760…+$113] · 35% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$4,686 NOT cap gain +$16,039 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.10/sh | -$97 cycle +$33 [-$891…-$41] · 19% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$3,732 NOT cap gain +$16,993 |
| budget: banked $130 debit $97 (75% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,351/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | -39% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,872/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,555 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 199.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 30.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-20,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.50 (1.4σ) | $130 | $-15,722 | +$5,003 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $45.61 (1.7σ) | $-982 | $-15,600 | +$5,125 | -$992 |
| +5% | $46.73 (2.1σ) | $-2,095 | $-15,477 | +$5,248 | -$2,105 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-11,520 | $-14,441 | +$6,284 | -$11,380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.90/sh | +$1,329 cycle +$1,469 [+$957…+$1,312] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$14,936 NOT cap gain +$5,789 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.59/sh | +$411 cycle +$551 [-$294…+$353] · 63% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$8,205 NOT cap gain +$12,520 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.12/sh | +$87 cycle +$227 [-$639…+$0] · 25% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$9,639 NOT cap gain +$11,086 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$39 cycle +$179 [-$812…-$40] · 18% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$5,247 NOT cap gain +$15,478 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.10/sh | -$69 cycle +$71 [-$892…-$145] · 10% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$4,245 NOT cap gain +$16,480 |
| budget: banked $140 debit $69 (49% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $933/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,028/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,490 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 143.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 22.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-14,518 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (1.2σ) | $140 | $-16,264 | +$4,461 | +$133 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (1.6σ) | $-630 | $-15,813 | +$4,912 | -$637 |
| +5% | $46.20 (1.9σ) | $-1,400 | $-15,362 | +$5,363 | -$1,407 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-8,365 | $-11,328 | +$9,397 | -$8,267 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.89/sh | +$1,888 cycle +$2,118 [+$1,496…+$1,867] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$14,844 NOT cap gain +$5,881 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.58/sh | +$581 cycle +$811 [-$223…+$506] · 64% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$8,503 NOT cap gain +$12,222 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.12/sh | +$119 cycle +$349 [-$694…+$9] · 25% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$10,075 NOT cap gain +$10,650 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$53 cycle +$283 [-$925…-$58] · 22% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$5,701 NOT cap gain +$15,024 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.10/sh | -$100 cycle +$130 [-$1,049…-$206] · 13% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$4,744 NOT cap gain +$15,981 |
| budget: banked $230 debit $100 (44% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$130 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,314/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,372/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,455 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 211.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 32.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-20,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.06 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.50 (1.1σ) | $230 | $-16,732 | +$3,993 | +$220 |
| +2.5% | $44.59 (1.4σ) | $-857 | $-16,612 | +$4,113 | -$867 |
| +5% | $45.68 (1.7σ) | $-1,945 | $-16,493 | +$4,232 | -$1,955 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-12,420 | $-15,341 | +$5,384 | -$12,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.86/sh | +$1,859 cycle +$2,329 [+$1,369…+$1,832] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$16,299 NOT cap gain +$4,426 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.09/sh | +$1,095 cycle +$1,565 [+$223…+$1,028] · 81% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$11,635 NOT cap gain +$9,090 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$103 cycle +$573 [-$868…-$10] · 24% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$11,516 NOT cap gain +$9,209 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$43 cycle +$513 [-$1,163…-$75] · 16% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$7,136 NOT cap gain +$13,589 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$56 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.43/sh | -$428 cycle +$42 [-$1,696…-$554] | 91% surv 90% | -$3,167 NOT cap gain +$17,558 |
| budget: banked $470 debit $428 (91% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $817/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | +122% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,972/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,715 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 229.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 35.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-20,810 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $470 | $-18,157 | +$2,568 | +$460 |
| +2.5% | $43.05 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-580 | $-18,042 | +$2,683 | -$590 |
| +5% | $44.10 (1.2σ) | $-1,630 | $-17,926 | +$2,799 | -$1,640 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-13,680 | $-16,601 | +$4,124 | -$13,540 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.93/sh | +$1,933 cycle +$1,983 [+$1,616…+$1,971] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$12,204 NOT cap gain +$8,521 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.61/sh | +$610 cycle +$660 [-$29…+$628] · 69% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$5,880 NOT cap gain +$14,845 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$143 cycle +$193 [-$554…+$141] · 41% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$7,456 NOT cap gain +$13,269 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$66 cycle +$116 [-$725…+$62] · 31% credit | 81% surv 79% | -$3,093 NOT cap gain +$17,632 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 7 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.04/sh | -$41 cycle +$9 [-$772…-$44] · 24% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$5,420 NOT cap gain +$15,305 |
| budget: banked $50 debit $41 (82% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,167/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $672/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,135 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 179.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 27.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-20,770 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (1.8σ) | $50 | $-14,137 | +$6,588 | +$40 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.2σ) | $-1,100 | $-14,011 | +$6,714 | -$1,110 |
| +5% | $48.30 (2.6σ) | $-2,250 | $-13,884 | +$6,841 | -$2,260 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-10,100 | $-13,021 | +$7,704 | -$9,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.92/sh | +$1,924 cycle +$1,984 [+$1,718…+$1,965] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$12,758 NOT cap gain +$7,967 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.43/sh | +$426 cycle +$486 [-$41…+$444] · 72% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$5,498 NOT cap gain +$15,227 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$139 cycle +$199 [-$370…+$98] · 42% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$8,005 NOT cap gain +$12,720 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$64 cycle +$124 [-$500…+$57] · 37% credit | 81% surv 79% | -$3,640 NOT cap gain +$17,085 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 7 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.04/sh | -$42 cycle +$18 [-$567…-$53] · 22% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$5,966 NOT cap gain +$14,759 |
| budget: banked $60 debit $42 (70% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$18 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,141/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | -72% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $822/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,625 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 186.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 28.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-20,760 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.50 (1.7σ) | $60 | $-14,682 | +$6,043 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $46.64 (2.0σ) | $-1,077 | $-14,557 | +$6,168 | -$1,087 |
| +5% | $47.77 (2.4σ) | $-2,215 | $-14,432 | +$6,293 | -$2,225 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-10,590 | $-13,511 | +$7,214 | -$10,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.92/sh | +$1,916 cycle +$2,006 [+$1,592…+$1,970] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$13,291 NOT cap gain +$7,434 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$422 cycle +$512 [-$288…+$471] · 62% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$6,028 NOT cap gain +$14,697 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$134 cycle +$224 [-$575…+$108] · 41% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$8,535 NOT cap gain +$12,190 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$61 cycle +$151 [-$777…+$92] · 35% credit | 81% surv 80% | -$4,168 NOT cap gain +$16,557 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 7 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.04/sh | -$43 cycle +$47 [-$819…-$20] · 19% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$6,492 NOT cap gain +$14,233 |
| budget: banked $90 debit $43 (48% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$47 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,114/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,350/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | -58% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,272/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,095 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 193.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 29.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-20,760 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.5σ) | $90 | $-15,207 | +$5,518 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (1.9σ) | $-1,035 | $-15,083 | +$5,642 | -$1,045 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.2σ) | $-2,160 | $-14,960 | +$5,765 | -$2,170 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-11,060 | $-13,981 | +$6,744 | -$10,920 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.88/sh | +$1,503 cycle +$1,735 [+$1,174…+$1,498] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$15,780 NOT cap gain +$4,945 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.57/sh | +$460 cycle +$692 [-$188…+$435] · 65% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$9,175 NOT cap gain +$11,550 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.11/sh | +$91 cycle +$323 [-$582…+$35] · 31% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$10,654 NOT cap gain +$10,071 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$40 cycle +$272 [-$748…+$1] · 25% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$6,265 NOT cap gain +$14,460 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 7 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.24/sh | -$195 cycle +$37 [-$966…-$245] | 89% surv 88% | -$5,390 NOT cap gain +$15,335 |
| budget: banked $232 debit $195 (84% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$37 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,292/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,406/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,716 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 174.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 26.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-16,660 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $232 | $-17,283 | +$3,442 | +$224 |
| +2.5% | $44.07 (1.2σ) | $-628 | $-16,950 | +$3,775 | -$636 |
| +5% | $45.15 (1.6σ) | $-1,488 | $-16,617 | +$4,108 | -$1,496 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-10,288 | $-13,237 | +$7,488 | -$10,176 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.87/sh | +$1,121 cycle +$1,343 [+$862…+$1,110] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$16,725 NOT cap gain +$4,000 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.57/sh | +$341 cycle +$563 [-$183…+$301] · 64% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$9,857 NOT cap gain +$10,868 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.11/sh | +$65 cycle +$287 [-$458…+$6] · 27% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$11,243 NOT cap gain +$9,482 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$28 cycle +$250 [-$606…-$27] · 19% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$6,840 NOT cap gain +$13,885 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 7 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.25/sh | -$147 cycle +$75 [-$758…-$205] | 89% surv 88% | -$5,905 NOT cap gain +$14,820 |
| budget: banked $222 debit $147 (66% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $952/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,330/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,260/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,789 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 134.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 20.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-12,480 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $222 | $-17,846 | +$2,879 | +$216 |
| +2.5% | $43.56 (1.1σ) | $-415 | $-17,304 | +$3,421 | -$421 |
| +5% | $44.62 (1.4σ) | $-1,053 | $-16,762 | +$3,963 | -$1,059 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-7,968 | $-10,945 | +$9,780 | -$7,884 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.85/sh | +$739 cycle +$975 [+$540…+$724] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$18,201 NOT cap gain +$2,524 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.08/sh | +$434 cycle +$670 [+$88…+$397] · 82% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$13,079 NOT cap gain +$7,646 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$47 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$39 cycle +$275 [-$354…-$14] · 20% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$12,363 NOT cap gain +$8,362 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$16 cycle +$252 [-$462…-$44] · 13% credit | 82% surv 81% | -$7,946 NOT cap gain +$12,779 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.43/sh | -$171 cycle +$65 [-$673…-$236] | 91% surv 90% | -$3,693 NOT cap gain +$17,032 |
| budget: banked $236 debit $171 (72% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$65 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $321/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,540/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | +11% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,474/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,838 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 93.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 14.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-8,336 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-42.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $236 | $-18,940 | +$1,785 | +$232 |
| +2.5% | $42.54 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-179 | $-18,203 | +$2,522 | -$183 |
| +5% | $43.58 (1.1σ) | $-594 | $-17,467 | +$3,258 | -$598 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-5,624 | $-8,629 | +$12,096 | -$5,568 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.84/sh | +$551 cycle +$776 [+$388…+$534] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$18,954 NOT cap gain +$1,771 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.07/sh | +$322 cycle +$547 [+$33…+$282] · 78% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$13,755 NOT cap gain +$6,970 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$47 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$27 cycle +$252 [-$290…-$25] · 17% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$12,940 NOT cap gain +$7,785 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$11 cycle +$236 [-$386…-$52] · 11% credit | 82% surv 81% | -$8,516 NOT cap gain +$12,209 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.43/sh | -$128 cycle +$97 [-$544…-$194] | 91% surv 90% | -$4,215 NOT cap gain +$16,510 |
| budget: banked $225 debit $128 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $236/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,311/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,231 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 71.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 11.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-6,255 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $225 | $-19,505 | +$1,220 | +$222 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-82 | $-18,675 | +$2,050 | -$86 |
| +5% | $43.05 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-390 | $-17,845 | +$2,880 | -$393 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-4,320 | $-7,339 | +$13,386 | -$4,278 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.83/sh | +$548 cycle +$833 [+$365…+$525] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$19,452 NOT cap gain +$1,273 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.06/sh | +$318 cycle +$603 [-$3…+$267] · 75% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$14,254 NOT cap gain +$6,471 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.08/sh | +$25 cycle +$310 [-$325…-$40] · 13% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$13,437 NOT cap gain +$7,288 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.03/sh | +$10 cycle +$295 [-$431…-$68] · 8% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$9,013 NOT cap gain +$11,712 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.42/sh | -$127 cycle +$158 [-$589…-$211] | 91% surv 90% | -$4,709 NOT cap gain +$16,016 |
| budget: banked $285 debit $127 (45% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$158 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $231/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,275/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | +35% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 67% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,211/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,321 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 72.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 11.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-6,256 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-41.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $285 | $-20,000 | +$725 | +$282 |
| +2.5% | $41.51 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-19 | $-19,180 | +$1,545 | -$22 |
| +5% | $42.52 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-322 | $-18,360 | +$2,365 | -$326 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-4,410 | $-7,429 | +$13,296 | -$4,368 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.81/sh | +$363 cycle +$601 | 68% surv 54% | -$20,116 NOT cap gain +$609 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.06/sh | +$11 cycle +$249 | 84% surv 80% | -$13,930 NOT cap gain +$6,795 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.02/sh | +$3 cycle +$241 | 83% surv 81% | -$9,498 NOT cap gain +$11,227 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.38/sh | -$77 cycle +$161 | 90% surv 89% | -$6,248 NOT cap gain +$14,477 |
| budget: banked $238 debit $77 (32% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$161 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $162/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,570/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | +12% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,507/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,599 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 49.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 7.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-4,171 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-41.32 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.32 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $238 | $-20,479 | +$246 | +$236 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $38 | $-19,691 | +$1,034 | +$36 |
| +5% | $42.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-162 | $-18,781 | +$1,944 | -$164 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-2,992 | $-6,025 | +$14,700 | -$2,964 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$1.80/sh | +$361 cycle +$655 | 68% surv 54% | -$20,062 NOT cap gain +$663 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$45 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$15 cycle +$309 | 82% surv 79% | -$14,980 NOT cap gain +$5,745 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$11 cycle +$305 | 85% surv 83% | -$10,544 NOT cap gain +$10,181 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 7 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.33/sh | -$66 cycle +$228 | 91% surv 90% | -$8,401 NOT cap gain +$12,324 |
| budget: banked $294 debit $66 (22% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$228 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $255/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,410/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,178/mo) | +39% |
| vs normal income ($6,356/mo) | 69% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,347/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,643 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 49.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 7.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-4,170 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-41.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $294 | $-20,423 | +$302 | +$292 |
| +2.5% | $40.49 (≤1σ, normal week) | $97 | $-20,201 | +$524 | +$94 |
| +5% | $41.48 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-101 | $-19,303 | +$1,422 | -$103 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.0σ) | $-3,036 | $-6,069 | +$14,656 | -$3,008 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$31 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.03/sh | +$12,891 cycle +$15,266 [+$12,941…+$16,053] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$9,686 NOT cap gain +$77,627 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$3,044 cycle +$5,419 [+$407…+$6,653] · 79% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$11,065 SAFE cap gain +$98,377 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$725 cycle +$3,100 [-$2,249…+$4,140] · 55% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$19,333 SAFE cap gain +$106,646 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$33 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.04/sh | +$444 cycle +$2,819 [-$1,868…+$2,882] · 52% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$3,171 SAFE cap gain +$90,483 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.13/sh | -$1,567 cycle +$808 [-$4,827…+$1,725] · 36% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$27,628 SAFE cap gain +$114,941 |
| budget: banked $2,375 debit $1,567 (66% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$808 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $32,128/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,917/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | -70% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,917/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,804 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 97.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 9.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-89,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $30.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-31.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $31.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.00 (1.4σ) | $2,375 | $-22,577 | +$64,735 | +$1,000 |
| +2.5% | $31.77 (1.6σ) | $-7,312 | $-24,059 | +$63,253 | -$8,687 |
| +5% | $32.55 (1.8σ) | $-17,000 | $-25,542 | +$61,771 | -$18,375 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-106,500 | $-39,235 | +$48,077 | -$74,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (101 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.91/sh | +$9,190 cycle +$14,442 [+$8,448…+$10,678] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$36,715 NOT cap gain +$50,597 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$5,897 cycle +$11,149 [+$3,557…+$7,215] · 97% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$19,998 NOT cap gain +$67,315 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.12/sh | +$1,208 cycle +$6,460 [-$1,048…+$1,705] · 52% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$24,686 NOT cap gain +$62,626 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$1,182 cycle +$6,434 [-$2,075…+$2,046] · 45% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$14,125 NOT cap gain +$73,187 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.49/sh | -$4,915 cycle +$337 [-$9,345…-$4,560] · 5% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$11,541 SAFE cap gain +$98,853 |
| budget: banked $5,252 debit $4,915 (94% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$337 cash · rolled 101 ct earn ≈ $16,503/mo while parked; 24 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $17,507/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $18,002/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,575 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 157.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 15.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (101 ct) | $-71,104 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $28.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-29.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,252 | $-45,905 | +$41,408 | +$4,141 |
| +2.5% | $29.21 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,944 | $-45,558 | +$41,755 | -$3,055 |
| +5% | $29.93 (1.1σ) | $-9,141 | $-45,210 | +$42,102 | -$10,252 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-107,969 | $-46,944 | +$40,368 | -$81,709 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (123 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.89/sh | +$10,902 cycle +$18,897 [+$9,956…+$12,281] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$37,795 NOT cap gain +$49,517 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$6,784 cycle +$14,779 [+$3,766…+$7,788] · 98% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$21,903 NOT cap gain +$65,410 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.10/sh | +$1,242 cycle +$9,237 [-$1,691…+$1,334] · 41% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$27,445 NOT cap gain +$59,867 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,145 cycle +$9,140 [-$3,023…+$1,523] · 35% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$16,954 NOT cap gain +$70,358 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.50/sh | -$6,170 cycle +$1,825 [-$11,991…-$6,541] · 4% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$7,493 SAFE cap gain +$94,806 |
| budget: banked $7,995 debit $6,170 (77% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,825 cash · rolled 123 ct earn ≈ $18,996/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $26,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $26,691/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$57,617 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 208.6% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 20.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (123 ct) | $-86,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-28.73 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.73 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7,995 | $-48,698 | +$38,615 | +$6,642 |
| +2.5% | $28.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-615 | $-49,896 | +$37,416 | -$1,968 |
| +5% | $29.40 (1.0σ) | $-9,225 | $-51,095 | +$36,217 | -$10,578 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-136,038 | $-69,293 | +$18,020 | -$104,058 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (115 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.77/sh | +$8,889 cycle +$24,874 [+$7,446…+$8,140] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$58,199 NOT cap gain +$29,113 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.40/sh | +$4,572 cycle +$20,557 [+$437…+$2,393] · 81% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$42,506 NOT cap gain +$44,806 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.01/sh | +$145 cycle +$16,130 [-$3,716…-$1,622] · 7% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$46,933 NOT cap gain +$40,379 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.01/sh | +$145 cycle +$16,130 [-$3,716…-$1,622] · 7% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$46,933 NOT cap gain +$40,379 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.81/sh | -$9,348 cycle +$6,637 [-$18,449…-$13,122] | 90% surv 89% | +$7,099 SAFE cap gain +$94,412 |
| budget: banked $15,985 debit $9,348 (58% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6,637 cash · rolled 115 ct earn ≈ $8,217/mo while parked; 10 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $53,283/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $53,490/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$74,110 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 268.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 26.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (115 ct) | $-81,190 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-26.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $15,985 | $-67,088 | +$20,224 | +$14,720 |
| +2.5% | $26.14 (≤1σ, normal week) | $8,654 | $-67,670 | +$19,642 | +$7,389 |
| +5% | $26.78 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,322 | $-68,252 | +$19,061 | +$57 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-147,430 | $-82,765 | +$4,548 | -$117,530 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.16/sh | +$14,492 cycle +$15,367 [+$15,319…+$20,398] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$16,884 SAFE cap gain +$104,197 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,150 cycle +$2,025 [+$144…+$4,890] · 76% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$34,140 SAFE cap gain +$121,452 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$162 cycle +$1,037 [-$1,539…+$5,087] · 66% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$54,327 SAFE cap gain +$141,639 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,917/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,917/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-100,312 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-34.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $34.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.50 (2.0σ) | $875 | $2,392 | +$89,704 | -$500 |
| +2.5% | $34.34 (2.2σ) | $-9,594 | $790 | +$88,102 | -$10,969 |
| +5% | $35.18 (2.4σ) | $-20,063 | $-812 | +$86,501 | -$21,438 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-76,750 | $-9,485 | +$77,827 | -$44,250 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.13/sh | +$14,166 cycle +$15,166 [+$15,731…+$20,140] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$11,388 SAFE cap gain +$98,701 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$2,117 cycle +$3,117 [+$1,683…+$8,022] · 81% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$40,525 SAFE cap gain +$127,838 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.07/sh | +$835 cycle +$1,835 [+$228…+$5,000] · 76% credit | 77% surv 69% | +$28,656 SAFE cap gain +$115,969 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$201 cycle +$799 [-$923…+$5,446] · 66% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$48,795 SAFE cap gain +$136,108 |
| budget: banked $1,000 debit $201 (20% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$799 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $37,922/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,333/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,333/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,179 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 11.5% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 1.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-95,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-33.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.00 (1.9σ) | $1,000 | $-2,777 | +$84,535 | -$375 |
| +2.5% | $33.82 (2.1σ) | $-9,312 | $-4,355 | +$82,958 | -$10,687 |
| +5% | $34.65 (2.3σ) | $-19,625 | $-5,933 | +$81,380 | -$21,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-82,875 | $-15,610 | +$71,702 | -$50,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$32 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.06/sh | +$13,205 cycle +$15,080 [+$13,711…+$18,531] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$4,579 NOT cap gain +$82,734 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,063 cycle +$2,938 [-$950…+$5,659] · 67% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$24,465 SAFE cap gain +$111,777 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.05/sh | +$679 cycle +$2,554 [-$927…+$3,995] · 64% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$8,200 SAFE cap gain +$95,512 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$1,239 cycle +$636 [-$3,348…+$3,162] · 45% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$32,751 SAFE cap gain +$120,063 |
| budget: banked $1,875 debit $1,239 (66% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$636 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $33,540/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,054 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 76.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 7.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-89,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $31.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-31.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $31.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.50 (1.5σ) | $1,875 | $-17,783 | +$69,529 | +$500 |
| +2.5% | $32.29 (1.7σ) | $-7,969 | $-19,289 | +$68,023 | -$9,344 |
| +5% | $33.08 (1.9σ) | $-17,813 | $-20,796 | +$66,517 | -$19,188 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-100,750 | $-33,485 | +$53,827 | -$68,250 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.01/sh | +$12,581 cycle +$15,081 [+$12,278…+$15,642] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$15,165 NOT cap gain +$72,148 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$2,716 cycle +$5,216 [-$275…+$5,499] · 71% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$5,568 SAFE cap gain +$92,880 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$395 cycle +$2,895 [-$2,875…+$2,811] · 46% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$13,834 SAFE cap gain +$101,147 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$33 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.02/sh | +$213 cycle +$2,713 [-$2,393…+$1,795] · 43% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$2,229 NOT cap gain +$85,084 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.15/sh | -$1,887 cycle +$613 [-$5,581…+$307] · 28% credit | 80% surv 76% | +$22,140 SAFE cap gain +$109,453 |
| budget: banked $2,500 debit $1,887 (75% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$613 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $30,740/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,333/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | -69% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,333/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,929 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 119.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 11.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-88,625 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $30.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $30-30.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $30.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $30.50 (1.3σ) | $2,500 | $-27,746 | +$59,567 | +$1,125 |
| +2.5% | $31.26 (1.5σ) | $-7,031 | $-29,204 | +$58,108 | -$8,406 |
| +5% | $32.02 (1.7σ) | $-16,562 | $-30,662 | +$56,650 | -$17,937 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-112,625 | $-45,360 | +$41,952 | -$80,125 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.98/sh | +$12,274 cycle +$16,399 [+$11,954…+$15,234] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$19,141 NOT cap gain +$68,172 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.18/sh | +$2,219 cycle +$6,344 [+$10…+$3,745] · 75% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$9,185 NOT cap gain +$78,127 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$2,394 cycle +$6,519 [-$579…+$4,696] · 69% credit | 75% surv 69% | +$1,577 SAFE cap gain +$88,889 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$72 cycle +$4,197 [-$3,238…+$2,208] · 43% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$9,843 SAFE cap gain +$97,155 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$2,197 cycle +$1,928 [-$5,948…-$209] · 23% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$18,161 SAFE cap gain +$105,473 |
| budget: banked $4,125 debit $2,197 (53% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,928 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $29,377/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | -48% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,554 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 135.9% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 13.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-88,188 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $30-30.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $30.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $30.00 (1.2σ) | $4,125 | $-31,415 | +$55,898 | +$2,750 |
| +2.5% | $30.75 (1.3σ) | $-5,250 | $-32,849 | +$54,464 | -$6,625 |
| +5% | $31.50 (1.5σ) | $-14,625 | $-34,283 | +$53,029 | -$16,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-117,250 | $-49,985 | +$37,327 | -$84,750 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.96/sh | +$11,970 cycle +$16,845 [+$11,605…+$14,869] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$23,988 NOT cap gain +$63,325 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.16/sh | +$1,974 cycle +$6,849 [-$386…+$3,379] · 69% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$13,974 NOT cap gain +$73,339 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$2,077 cycle +$6,952 [-$1,245…+$4,251] · 61% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$3,283 NOT cap gain +$84,029 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.20/sh | -$2,499 cycle +$2,376 [-$6,420…-$766] · 20% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$13,316 SAFE cap gain +$100,628 |
| budget: banked $4,875 debit $2,499 (51% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,376 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $28,039/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | -39% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,054 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 155.9% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 15.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-87,938 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.50 (1.0σ) | $4,875 | $-35,958 | +$51,354 | +$3,500 |
| +2.5% | $30.24 (1.2σ) | $-4,344 | $-37,369 | +$49,944 | -$5,719 |
| +5% | $30.98 (1.4σ) | $-13,563 | $-38,779 | +$48,533 | -$14,938 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-122,750 | $-55,485 | +$31,827 | -$90,250 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.93/sh | +$11,670 cycle +$16,670 [+$10,777…+$14,328] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$29,457 NOT cap gain +$57,856 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.62/sh | +$7,707 cycle +$12,707 [+$5,159…+$9,611] · 99% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$13,409 NOT cap gain +$73,903 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,733 cycle +$6,733 [-$780…+$2,680] · 61% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$19,384 NOT cap gain +$67,929 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,767 cycle +$6,767 [-$1,846…+$3,308] · 53% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$8,762 NOT cap gain +$78,550 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.22/sh | -$2,790 cycle +$2,210 [-$7,002…-$1,777] · 16% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$7,856 SAFE cap gain +$95,168 |
| budget: banked $5,000 debit $2,790 (56% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,210 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $26,727/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,667/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | -37% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,667/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,179 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 178.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 17.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-88,812 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $28.71 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,000 | $-41,127 | +$46,185 | +$3,625 |
| +2.5% | $29.72 (1.1σ) | $-4,062 | $-42,514 | +$44,799 | -$5,437 |
| +5% | $30.45 (1.3σ) | $-13,125 | $-43,900 | +$43,412 | -$14,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-128,875 | $-61,610 | +$25,702 | -$96,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (109 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.86/sh | +$9,408 cycle +$17,365 [+$8,256…+$10,234] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$44,467 NOT cap gain +$42,846 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.52/sh | +$5,666 cycle +$13,623 [+$2,689…+$5,714] · 97% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$28,199 NOT cap gain +$59,113 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.08/sh | +$901 cycle +$8,858 [-$1,889…+$390] · 31% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$32,964 NOT cap gain +$54,348 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$760 cycle +$8,717 [-$3,285…+$176] · 27% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$22,517 NOT cap gain +$64,795 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$5,621 cycle +$2,336 [-$11,082…-$6,855] · 2% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$2,864 SAFE cap gain +$90,176 |
| budget: banked $7,957 debit $5,621 (71% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,336 cash · rolled 109 ct earn ≈ $15,882/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $26,523/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $26,853/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$55,637 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 201.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 20.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (109 ct) | $-76,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-28.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7,957 | $-53,875 | +$33,437 | +$6,758 |
| +2.5% | $28.19 (≤1σ, normal week) | $463 | $-54,090 | +$33,222 | -$736 |
| +5% | $28.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-7,030 | $-54,305 | +$33,007 | -$8,230 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-125,132 | $-62,027 | +$25,286 | -$96,792 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (90 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$27 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.84/sh | +$7,562 cycle +$15,572 [+$6,598…+$7,872] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$51,345 NOT cap gain +$35,967 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.49/sh | +$4,396 cycle +$12,406 [+$1,841…+$4,005] · 96% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$34,500 NOT cap gain +$52,812 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$581 cycle +$8,591 [-$1,837…-$40] · 25% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$38,315 NOT cap gain +$48,997 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$422 cycle +$8,432 [-$3,093…-$298] · 20% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$27,887 NOT cap gain +$59,425 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.81/sh | -$7,283 cycle +$727 [-$12,885…-$8,888] | 89% surv 88% | +$17,345 SAFE cap gain +$104,658 |
| budget: banked $8,010 debit $7,283 (91% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$727 cash · rolled 90 ct earn ≈ $8,144/mo while parked; 35 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $26,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $27,422/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,999 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 177.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 17.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (90 ct) | $-63,315 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $8,010 | $-58,907 | +$28,405 | +$7,020 |
| +2.5% | $27.67 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,935 | $-57,836 | +$29,477 | +$945 |
| +5% | $28.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-4,140 | $-56,764 | +$30,549 | -$5,130 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-106,380 | $-48,215 | +$39,098 | -$82,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (78 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.82/sh | +$6,377 cycle +$14,333 [+$5,371…+$6,393] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$57,746 NOT cap gain +$29,566 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.46/sh | +$3,570 cycle +$11,526 [+$1,164…+$2,859] · 93% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$40,543 NOT cap gain +$46,770 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.05/sh | +$366 cycle +$8,322 [-$1,906…-$428] · 18% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$43,747 NOT cap gain +$43,566 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$191 cycle +$8,147 [-$3,090…-$920] · 15% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$33,334 NOT cap gain +$53,979 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$34 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | -$1.01/sh | -$7,898 cycle +$58 [-$13,488…-$9,715] | 91% surv 90% | +$6,221 SAFE cap gain +$93,533 |
| budget: banked $7,956 debit $7,898 (99% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 78 ct earn ≈ $5,894/mo while parked; 47 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $26,520/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $27,489/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,352 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 164.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 16.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (78 ct) | $-54,990 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-27.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7,956 | $-64,123 | +$23,190 | +$7,098 |
| +2.5% | $27.16 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,789 | $-62,276 | +$25,036 | +$1,931 |
| +5% | $27.83 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,379 | $-60,429 | +$26,883 | -$3,237 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-95,082 | $-40,037 | +$47,276 | -$74,802 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (70 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.80/sh | +$5,566 cycle +$13,616 [+$4,675…+$5,382] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$63,669 NOT cap gain +$23,644 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$2,992 cycle +$11,042 [+$720…+$2,007] · 88% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$46,233 NOT cap gain +$41,080 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.03/sh | +$207 cycle +$8,257 [-$1,940…-$706] · 11% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$49,017 NOT cap gain +$38,295 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$19 cycle +$8,069 [-$3,125…-$1,347] · 11% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$38,618 NOT cap gain +$48,695 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | -$1.00/sh | -$7,009 cycle +$1,041 [-$12,306…-$9,026] | 91% surv 90% | +$1,998 SAFE cap gain +$89,310 |
| budget: banked $8,050 debit $7,009 (87% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,041 cash · rolled 70 ct earn ≈ $4,841/mo while parked; 55 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $26,833/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $27,968/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,290 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 156.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 15.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (70 ct) | $-50,190 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-27.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $8,050 | $-69,235 | +$18,078 | +$7,280 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,500 | $-66,903 | +$20,410 | +$2,730 |
| +5% | $27.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,050 | $-64,571 | +$22,742 | -$1,820 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-87,920 | $-34,955 | +$52,358 | -$69,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.75/sh | +$3,755 cycle +$11,805 | 69% surv 54% | -$74,682 NOT cap gain +$12,630 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.14/sh | +$690 cycle +$8,740 | 74% surv 66% | -$63,031 NOT cap gain +$24,281 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,666 cycle +$9,716 | 75% surv 67% | -$56,761 NOT cap gain +$30,551 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.82/sh | -$4,110 cycle +$3,940 | 91% surv 90% | +$988 SAFE cap gain +$88,301 |
| budget: banked $8,050 debit $4,110 (51% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3,940 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $3,198/mo while parked; 75 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $26,833/mo |
| vs 50% target ($26,484/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($52,969/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $28,380/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,622 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 121.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 12.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-35,325 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-26.69 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.69 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $8,050 | $-78,438 | +$8,875 | +$7,500 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,925 | $-76,110 | +$11,203 | +$4,375 |
| +5% | $26.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,800 | $-72,618 | +$14,695 | +$1,250 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-65,500 | $-17,735 | +$69,578 | -$52,500 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $212.5C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) | $209.53 | $213.74 | $1.56 | $1.56 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.97 OTM. The $1.56 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$596 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $213.74 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , NVDA is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers NVDA. | ||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (5d) | $748.00 | $758.65 | $0.41 | $0.41 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.00 OTM. The $0.41 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$719 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $758.65 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , SPY is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers SPY. | ||||||||
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $629.12 | $653.94 | $29.90 | $29.90 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.88 OTM. The $29.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,167 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $653.94 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , META is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers META. | ||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (30d) | $380.96 | $396.32 | $6.03 | $6.03 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.04 OTM. The $6.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,268 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $396.32 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , GLD is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers GLD. | ||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) | $971.45 | $1,047.99 | $9.60 | $9.60 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 68.55 OTM. The $9.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,588 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,047.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) | $105.94 | $117.62 | $2.93 | $2.93 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.06 OTM. The $2.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$784 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $117.62 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $80.24 | $85.40 | $0.82 | $0.82 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.76 OTM. The $0.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$705 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $85.40 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $347.68 | $385.01 | $4.15 | $4.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 22.32 OTM. The $4.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$22,444 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $385.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $301.23 | $331.10 | $6.45 | $6.45 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.77 OTM. The $6.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$605 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $331.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $971.45 | $1,069.99 | $40.83 | $40.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 78.55 OTM. The $40.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,069.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10x $265C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $244.01 | $267.79 | $2.77 | $2.77 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 20.99 OTM. The $2.77 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,736 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $267.79 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25x $6.5C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $5.97 | $6.67 | $0.23 | $0.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.53 OTM. The $0.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$309 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $6.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $465C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $416.42 | $475.80 | $5.15 | $5.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 48.58 OTM. The $5.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,075 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $475.80 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $83C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $71.55 | $84.05 | $1.02 | $1.02 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.45 OTM. The $1.02 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$602 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.05 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $51C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $42.43 | $51.96 | $0.92 | $0.92 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.57 OTM. The $0.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,813 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $51.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $39.5C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $32.37 | $40.17 | $0.52 | $0.52 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.13 OTM. The $0.52 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$923 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $40.17 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $98.36 | $125.99 | $0.39 | $0.39 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 26.64 OTM. The $0.39 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$942 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $125.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) | $42.43 | $55.50 | $0.45 | $0.45 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.57 OTM. The $0.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$905 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.50 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) | $96.19 | $107.00 | $1.23 | $1.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.81 OTM. The $1.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$476 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $107.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) | $17.66 | $20.75 | $0.38 | $0.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.84 OTM. The $0.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,013 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $20.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) | $83.20 | $100.20 | $3.20 | $3.20 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.80 OTM. The $3.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,577 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.20 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) | $177.64 | $210.57 | $3.14 | $3.14 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 29.86 OTM. The $3.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,510 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $210.57 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) | $42.43 | $55.87 | $1.07 | $1.07 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.57 OTM. The $1.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,638 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.87 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) | $42.43 | $55.85 | $1.07 | $1.07 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.57 OTM. The $1.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,610 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.85 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $130C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) | $98.36 | $131.32 | $0.65 | $0.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.64 OTM. The $0.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$509 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $131.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) | $123.01 | $167.67 | $1.95 | $1.95 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 41.99 OTM. The $1.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,308 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $167.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (23d) | $169.29 | $216.23 | $3.28 | $3.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 40.71 OTM. The $3.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$15,443 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $216.23 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $215C 14 Aug 2026 (23d) | $169.29 | $220.23 | $2.70 | $2.70 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 45.71 OTM. The $2.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,553 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $220.23 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (30d) | $444.27 | $505.00 | $31.43 | $31.43 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 30.73 OTM. The $31.43 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,985 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $505.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (30d) | $169.29 | $210.42 | $6.03 | $6.03 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 30.71 OTM. The $6.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,298 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $210.42 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER TMRW | Neville:0865 | 5 | $347.74 | $375.75 | 8.1% | $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 99% surv | 2% | $660 | $9,900/mo (80%) | $12,384/mo | sell 5x $377.50 CC |
| NOW ↗⚡ER TMRW | Main:1299 | 10 | $97.11 | $113.00 | 16.4% | $113 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 87% surv | 28% | $1,350 | $20,250/mo (151%) | $13,388/mo | sell 10x $113 CC |
| RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 9d | Joint:1782 | 50 | $22.49 | $20.86 | 0.0% | $24.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 85% surv | 31% | $800 | $12,000/mo (63%) | $18,938/mo | sell 50x $24.50 CC |
| IGV ↗ | Main:1299 | 12 | $89.63 | $86.98 | 0.0% | $92.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 83% surv | 35% | $300 | $4,500/mo (74%) | $6,120/mo | sell 12x $92.50 CC |
| MARA-LC40 ↗⚡ER 7d | Main:1299 | 200 | $12.56 | $14.99 | 19.3% | $15 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · 83% surv | 36% | $6,000 | $11,250/mo (30%) | $37,688/mo | sell 200x $15 CC |
| CLSK ↗⚡ER 16d | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $15.31 | $17.18 | 12.2% | $17.50 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · 82% surv | 38% | $675 | $2,250/mo (40%) | $5,672/mo | sell 25x $17.50 CC |
| GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER TMRW | Joint:1782 | 5 | $347.74 | $339.25 | 0.0% | $367.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 81% surv | 39% | $1,465 | $21,975/mo (177%) | $12,384/mo | sell 5x $367.50 CC |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $17.66 | $39.13 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 54.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $17.66 | $30.29 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 41.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $17.66 | $44.46 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 60.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| ETHA | Main:1299 | 50 | $14.59 | $17.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 15.8% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $37.27 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200 | $12.57 | $22.69 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 44.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| MARA-LC20-1782 | Joint:1782 | 50 | $12.57 | $24.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250 | $12.57 | $26.40 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.4% below BE SS |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10 | $256.25 | 10x $265C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $465C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50 | $17.13 | 50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $215C 14 Aug 2026 (23d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (30d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (23d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (30d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (30d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $51C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $130C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $212C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $208C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $83C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (5d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $12.45 | 25x $6C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 71 | 55% | 85% | +29pp |
| 60-70% | 115 | 64% | 88% | +24pp |
| 70-80% | 162 | 77% | 98% | +22pp |
| 80-90% | 199 | 84% | 99% | +15pp |
| 90-100% | 340 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 86 real buyback(s) recorded · 27 roll(s), net +$0.90/sh avg.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.