FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 8 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 4 underwater (not deep DD) | 1 uncapped above water | 34 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $45,325/mo (51% of normal target)

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	50	$15.61	$19.85	50 × $18 $500 cyc · $2,500/mo 91% surv · T:18%	45 × $17.50 $675 cyc · $3,375/mo 87% surv · T:27%	🎯 45 × $17 $1,035 cyc · $5,175/mo 81% surv · T:27%	42 × $16 $2,058 cyc · $10,290/mo 62% surv · T:80%	-	-$11,781 (37.7% IC)	27.2%
COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	20	$73.17	$95.14	20 × $79 $500 cyc · $2,500/mo 91% surv · T:18%	15 × $77 $750 cyc · $3,750/mo 82% surv · T:37%	🎯 19 × $76.50 $1,140 cyc · $5,700/mo 79% surv · T:32%	17 × $74 $2,295 cyc · $11,475/mo 59% surv · T:84%	$795	-$34,282 (60.4% IC)	30.0%
ETHA ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	50	$13.90	$18.13	🎯 50 × $15 $250 cyc · $1,250/mo 90% surv · T:33%	29 × $14.50 $348 cyc · $1,740/mo 78% surv · T:45%	44 × $14.50 $528 cyc · $2,640/mo 78% surv · T:45%	36 × $14 $1,044 cyc · $5,220/mo 56% surv · T:89%	-	-$15,380 (71.0% IC)	30.4%
MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 11d Main:1299 · Next Fri	200	$10.66	$13.53	200 × $12.50 $1,400 cyc · $7,000/mo 92% surv · T:16%	🎯 160 × $12 $2,080 cyc · $10,400/mo 85% surv · T:38%	143 × $11.50 $3,146 cyc · $15,730/mo 76% surv · T:49%	166 × $11 $6,308 cyc · $31,540/mo 63% surv · T:77%	-	-$22,327 (203.0% IC)	26.9%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
BMNR-LC23-1299 ↗ ⚐ Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$15.61	$36.90	25 × $18 $250 cyc · $1,250/mo 91% surv · T:18%	23 × $17.50 $345 cyc · $1,725/mo 87% surv · T:27%	🎯 23 × $17 $529 cyc · $2,645/mo 81% surv · T:27%	21 × $16 $1,029 cyc · $5,145/mo 62% surv · T:80%	-	-$45,232 (0.0% IC)	136.4%
BMNR-LC23-1782 ↗ ⚐ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	50	$15.61	$20.81	50 × $18 $500 cyc · $2,500/mo 91% surv · T:18%	45 × $17.50 $675 cyc · $3,375/mo 87% surv · T:27%	🎯 45 × $17 $1,035 cyc · $5,175/mo 81% surv · T:27%	42 × $16 $2,058 cyc · $10,290/mo 62% surv · T:80%	-	-$16,096 (0.0% IC)	33.3%
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 11d Joint:1782 · Next Fri	10	$10.66	$18.98	10 × $12.50 $70 cyc · $350/mo 92% surv · T:16%	🎯 8 × $12 $104 cyc · $520/mo 85% surv · T:36%	8 × $11.50 $176 cyc · $880/mo 76% surv · T:49%	9 × $11 $342 cyc · $1,710/mo 63% surv · T:77%	-	-$5,478 (126.5% IC)	78.0%
MSTR-LC180 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 13d Joint:1782 · Next Fri	10	$94.16	$147.99	10 × $108 $620 cyc · $3,100/mo 91% surv · T:19%	🎯 10 × $105 $960 cyc · $4,800/mo 86% surv · T:37%	9 × $101 $1,476 cyc · $7,380/mo 77% surv · T:48%	10 × $97 $2,840 cyc · $14,200/mo 63% surv · T:77%	$373	-$42,026 (79.3% IC)	57.2%
TOTAL (8)	415	following every 🎯 $7,133 cyc · $35,665/mo		$4,090 cyc · $20,450/mo	$5,937 cyc · $29,685/mo	$9,065 cyc · $45,325/mo	$17,974 cyc · $89,870/mo	$1,168	-$192,603

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.33/sh	+$1,630 cycle +$2,130 [+$1,400…+$2,163] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$8,284 NOT cap gain +$15,841
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.16/sh	+$793 cycle +$1,293 [+$388…+$1,188] · 89% credit	71% surv 59%	-$6,860 NOT cap gain +$17,265
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$750 cycle +$1,250 [-$65…+$1,121] · 73% credit	79% surv 73%	+$1,686 SAFE cap gain +$25,811
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$194 cycle +$694 [-$734…+$518] · 50% credit	81% surv 77%	+$3,991 SAFE cap gain +$28,116

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$500	$-9,914	+$14,211	+$3,100
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.8σ)	$-1,750	$-9,587	+$14,538	+$3,100
+5%	$18.90 (2.1σ)	$-4,000	$-9,261	+$14,864	+$3,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (45 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.33/sh	+$1,493 cycle +$2,168 [+$1,278…+$1,947] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$11,118 NOT cap gain +$13,007
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.16/sh	+$740 cycle +$1,415 [+$398…+$1,051] · 92% credit	71% surv 60%	-$9,807 NOT cap gain +$14,318
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$688 cycle +$1,363 [+$36…+$989] · 77% credit	79% surv 73%	-$2,022 NOT cap gain +$22,103
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$190 cycle +$865 [-$548…+$477] · 46% credit	81% surv 77%	+$93 SAFE cap gain +$24,218
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.13/sh	-$575 cycle +$100 [-$1,449…-$325] · 15% credit	86% surv 84%	+$4,553 SAFE cap gain +$28,678
budget: banked $675 debit $575 (85% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$100 cash · rolled 45 ct earn ≈ $2,332/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$675	$-12,611	+$11,514	+$765
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.5σ)	$-1,294	$-12,294	+$11,831	+$765
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-3,262	$-11,977	+$12,148	+$765

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (45 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.34/sh	+$1,516 cycle +$2,551 [+$1,192…+$1,714] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$13,348 NOT cap gain +$10,777
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$696 cycle +$1,731 [-$112…+$763] · 70% credit	79% surv 74%	-$4,267 NOT cap gain +$19,858
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$202 cycle +$1,237 [-$695…+$207] · 35% credit	82% surv 78%	-$2,148 NOT cap gain +$21,977
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.00/sh	+$3 cycle +$1,038 [-$622…+$19] · 26% credit	76% surv 68%	-$10,184 NOT cap gain +$13,941
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.19/sh	-$862 cycle +$173 [-$2,018…-$929] · 5% credit	88% surv 86%	+$4,626 SAFE cap gain +$28,751
budget: banked $1,035 debit $862 (83% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$173 cash · rolled 45 ct earn ≈ $1,886/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.24	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.24	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,035	$-14,864	+$9,261	-$1,125
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.1σ)	$-877	$-14,556	+$9,569	-$1,125
+5%	$17.85 (1.4σ)	$-2,790	$-14,247	+$9,878	-$1,125

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (42 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.34/sh	+$1,446 cycle +$3,504 [+$1,020…+$1,295] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$17,976 NOT cap gain +$6,149
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.30/sh	+$1,267 cycle +$3,325 [+$364…+$954] · 88% credit	77% surv 70%	-$10,485 NOT cap gain +$13,640
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.05/sh	+$197 cycle +$2,255 [-$952…-$212] · 16% credit	82% surv 78%	-$6,629 NOT cap gain +$17,496
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.01/sh	+$41 cycle +$2,099 [-$743…-$240] · 12% credit	76% surv 68%	-$14,257 NOT cap gain +$9,868
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	7 Aug 2026	17d left	-$0.31/sh	-$1,284 cycle +$774 [-$2,810…-$1,785]	91% surv 90%	-$723 NOT cap gain +$23,402
budget: banked $2,058 debit $1,284 (62% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$774 cash · rolled 42 ct earn ≈ $1,409/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,058	$-19,422	+$4,703	+$42
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$378	$-18,812	+$5,313	-$1,638
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,302	$-18,202	+$5,923	-$3,318
SS (= V-bounce)	$17.13 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,688	$-17,802	+$6,323	-$4,158

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.33/sh	+$815 cycle +$1,065 [+$776…+$1,146] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$49,365 NOT cap gain +$7,160
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.16/sh	+$396 cycle +$646 [+$265…+$675] · 91% credit	71% surv 59%	-$48,778 NOT cap gain +$7,747
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$375 cycle +$625 [+$68…+$689] · 80% credit	79% surv 73%	-$44,982 NOT cap gain +$11,543
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$97 cycle +$347 [-$268…+$387] · 54% credit	81% surv 77%	-$43,988 NOT cap gain +$12,537
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$250	$-50,180	+$6,345	+$75
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.8σ)	$-875	$-50,159	+$6,366	-$1,050
+5%	$18.90 (2.1σ)	$-2,000	$-50,139	+$6,386	-$2,175
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.7σ)	$-52,575	$-49,229	+$7,296	-$12,425

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.33/sh	+$763 cycle +$1,108 [+$658…+$1,000] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$50,580 NOT cap gain +$5,945
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.16/sh	+$378 cycle +$723 [+$215…+$544] · 90% credit	71% surv 60%	-$49,960 NOT cap gain +$6,565
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$352 cycle +$697 [+$34…+$514] · 77% credit	79% surv 73%	-$46,169 NOT cap gain +$10,356
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$97 cycle +$442 [-$250…+$247] · 47% credit	81% surv 77%	-$45,151 NOT cap gain +$11,374
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.13/sh	-$294 cycle +$51 [-$698…-$160] · 16% credit	86% surv 84%	-$42,997 NOT cap gain +$13,528
budget: banked $345 debit $294 (85% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $1,192/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$345	$-51,343	+$5,182	+$184
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.5σ)	$-661	$-51,236	+$5,289	-$822
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-1,668	$-51,129	+$5,396	-$1,828
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.7σ)	$-49,404	$-49,270	+$7,255	-$12,466

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.34/sh	+$775 cycle +$1,304 [+$616…+$889] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$51,657 NOT cap gain +$4,868
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$356 cycle +$885 [-$42…+$424] · 71% credit	79% surv 74%	-$47,253 NOT cap gain +$9,272
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$103 cycle +$632 [-$337…+$140] · 39% credit	82% surv 78%	-$46,233 NOT cap gain +$10,292
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.00/sh	+$2 cycle +$531 [-$305…+$27] · 29% credit	76% surv 68%	-$50,152 NOT cap gain +$6,373
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.19/sh	-$441 cycle +$88 [-$1,004…-$450] · 3% credit	88% surv 86%	-$42,960 NOT cap gain +$13,565
budget: banked $529 debit $441 (83% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $964/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.24	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.24	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$529	$-52,432	+$4,093	+$368
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.1σ)	$-448	$-52,328	+$4,197	-$609
+5%	$17.85 (1.4σ)	$-1,426	$-52,223	+$4,302	-$1,587
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.7σ)	$-50,370	$-50,236	+$6,289	-$13,432

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (21 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.34/sh	+$723 cycle +$1,752 [+$518…+$654] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$53,740 NOT cap gain +$2,785
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.30/sh	+$633 cycle +$1,662 [+$209…+$485] · 89% credit	77% surv 70%	-$50,279 NOT cap gain +$6,246
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.05/sh	+$99 cycle +$1,128 [-$443…-$92] · 16% credit	82% surv 78%	-$48,269 NOT cap gain +$8,256
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.01/sh	+$20 cycle +$1,049 [-$350…-$112] · 13% credit	76% surv 68%	-$52,165 NOT cap gain +$4,360
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	7 Aug 2026	17d left	-$0.31/sh	-$642 cycle +$387 [-$1,357…-$882]	91% surv 90%	-$45,192 NOT cap gain +$11,333
budget: banked $1,029 debit $642 (62% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$387 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $705/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,029	$-54,463	+$2,062	+$882
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$189	$-54,285	+$2,240	+$42
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-651	$-54,107	+$2,418	-$798
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.7σ)	$-47,544	$-50,622	+$5,903	-$13,818

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.33/sh	+$1,630 cycle +$2,130 [+$1,400…+$2,163] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$10,280 NOT cap gain +$14,320
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.16/sh	+$793 cycle +$1,293 [+$388…+$1,188] · 89% credit	71% surv 59%	-$9,106 NOT cap gain +$15,494
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$750 cycle +$1,250 [-$65…+$1,121] · 73% credit	79% surv 73%	-$1,513 NOT cap gain +$23,087
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$194 cycle +$694 [-$734…+$518] · 50% credit	81% surv 77%	+$475 SAFE cap gain +$25,075
SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$500	$-11,909	+$12,691	+$150
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.8σ)	$-1,750	$-11,869	+$12,731	-$2,100
+5%	$18.90 (2.1σ)	$-4,000	$-11,828	+$12,772	-$4,350
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (9.2σ)	$-60,950	$-10,803	+$13,797	-$24,850

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (45 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.33/sh	+$1,493 cycle +$2,168 [+$1,278…+$1,947] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$12,751 NOT cap gain +$11,849
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.16/sh	+$740 cycle +$1,415 [+$398…+$1,051] · 92% credit	71% surv 60%	-$11,494 NOT cap gain +$13,106
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$688 cycle +$1,363 [+$36…+$989] · 77% credit	79% surv 73%	-$3,911 NOT cap gain +$20,689
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$190 cycle +$865 [-$548…+$477] · 46% credit	81% surv 77%	-$1,864 NOT cap gain +$22,736
SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.13/sh	-$575 cycle +$100 [-$1,449…-$325] · 15% credit	86% surv 84%	+$2,461 SAFE cap gain +$27,061
budget: banked $675 debit $575 (85% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$100 cash · rolled 45 ct earn ≈ $2,332/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 37 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 1 watch

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

META

Main:1299

3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)

$644.02

$653.94

$41.55

$27.10

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$367.47

$378.34

$1.05

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IBIT

Joint:1782

50x $37.5C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$36.31

$37.62

$0.21

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $96.5C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$92.80

$97.00

$0.53

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$170.97

$181.61

$2.85

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC23-1299

Main:1299

50x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$15.63

$16.67

$0.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC23-1782

Joint:1782

100x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$15.63

$16.67

$0.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$203.20

$219.51

$0.70

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NEM

Main:1299

5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$89.88

$97.96

$0.80

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$157.49

$172.10

$2.27

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

ENPH

RetireInc:7291

10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$41.66

$45.56

$0.75

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $432.5C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$399.31

$438.65

$6.97

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CLSK

RetireInc:7291

25x $14C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$12.90

$14.21

$0.30

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RKLB

RetireInc:7291

6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$67.71

$76.39

$1.16

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$94.25

$106.34

$0.99

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$313.62

$355.09

$2.25

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC25

Main:1299

50x $17.5C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$15.63

$17.57

$0.16

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MARA-LC20-1782

Joint:1782

40x $12C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$10.69

$12.14

$0.15

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

APP

RetireInc:7291

1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$423.51

$486.90

$2.33

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$73.22

$84.96

$0.87

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$33.60

$39.60

$0.74

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$33.60

$39.59

$0.74

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RIOT

Joint:1782

50x $21.5C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$18.39

$21.78

$0.16

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$157.49

$188.61

$0.43

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$867.25

$1,047.99

$6.83

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HIMS

Main:1299

15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$33.24

$41.03

$0.43

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$124.22

$151.58

$0.68

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$95.94

$117.62

$1.62

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MARA-LC20-1299

Main:1299

200x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$10.69

$13.05

$0.06

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MARA-LC25

Neville:0865

250x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$10.69

$13.04

$0.06

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLXY

Main:1299

125x $27C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$21.70

$27.12

$0.14

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC45

Neville:0865

20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$33.60

$42.67

$0.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC50

RetireInc:7291

20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

$33.60

$42.67

$0.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)

$345.03

$385.01

$4.55

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)

$247.34

$283.10

$1.54

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC145

RetireInc:7291

3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)

$157.49

$193.34

$2.46

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)

$867.25

$1,069.99

$18.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER 5d	Neville:0865	5	$344.93	$375.64	8.9%	$377.50 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · 90% surv	21%	$890	$4,450/mo (30%)	$14,885/mo	sell 5x $377.50 CC
GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER 5d	Joint:1782	5	$344.93	$338.45	0.0%	$367.50 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · 82% surv	38%	$1,675	$8,375/mo (56%)	$14,885/mo	sell 5x $367.50 CC
SPY ↗	Neville:0865	12	$742.98	$692.09	0.0%	$753 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · 81% surv	39%	$1,980	$9,900/mo (37%)	$26,418/mo	sell 12x $753 CC
NOW ↗⚡ER 5d	Main:1299	10	$103.46	$112.94	9.2%	$114 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · 81% surv	39%	$2,700	$13,500/mo (84%)	$16,131/mo	sell 10x $114 CC

UNCAPPED, ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner)

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Headroom
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$17.32	$15.75	+10.0%

CAPPED: 34 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$44.46	50x $18C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$20.74	25x $14C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $188C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $432C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$56.15	10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
GLXY	Main:1299	125	$39.71	125x $27C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$70.58	50x $38C 24 Jul 2026 (6d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $96C 24 Jul 2026 (6d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$22.69	200x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (6d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)]
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$26.40	250x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (13d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
RIOT	Joint:1782	50	$23.65	50x $22C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (6d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 887 of 1492 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	71	55%	85%	+29pp
60-70%	115	64%	88%	+24pp
70-80%	162	77%	98%	+22pp
80-90%	199	84%	99%	+15pp
90-100%	340	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 59 real buyback(s) recorded · 14 roll(s), net +$0.98/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-18 03:37

Gross FIGHT income	$2,500/mo
vs 50% target ($5,106/mo)	-51%
vs normal income ($10,212/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,794/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,740
… as % of IC ($31,250)	28.0%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	12.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)	$-24,150

Gross FIGHT income	$3,375/mo
vs 50% target ($5,106/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($10,212/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,223/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,891
… as % of IC ($31,250)	31.7%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	13.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (45 ct)	$-21,758

Gross FIGHT income	$5,175/mo
vs 50% target ($5,106/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($10,212/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,023/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,781
… as % of IC ($31,250)	37.7%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	16.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (45 ct)	$-21,758

Gross FIGHT income	$10,290/mo
vs 50% target ($5,106/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($10,212/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,470/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,103
… as % of IC ($31,250)	45.1%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	19.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (42 ct)	$-20,328

Gross FIGHT income	$1,250/mo
vs 50% target ($2,553/mo)	-51%
vs normal income ($5,106/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,250/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$46,990
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($25,320)	185.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.2 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-56,538

Gross FIGHT income	$1,725/mo
vs 50% target ($2,553/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($5,106/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,746/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,266
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($25,320)	174.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.7 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-52,026

Gross FIGHT income	$2,645/mo
vs 50% target ($2,553/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($5,106/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,666/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$45,232
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($25,320)	178.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.9 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-52,026

Gross FIGHT income	$5,145/mo
vs 50% target ($2,553/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($5,106/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,187/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$42,853
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($25,320)	169.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.4 mo
Surgical close (21 ct)	$-47,512

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,535
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($52,353)	25.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)	$-24,625

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,206
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($52,353)	27.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (45 ct)	$-22,185

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,096
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($52,353)	30.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (45 ct)	$-22,185

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$18,131
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($52,353)	34.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (42 ct)	$-20,727

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$79	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.87/sh	+$1,749 cycle +$2,249 [+$1,464…+$2,483] · 99% credit	66% surv 52%	-$29,017 NOT cap gain +$12,883
Max even-money escape in the band	~$84	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$417 cycle +$917 [-$236…+$1,168] · 66% credit	78% surv 72%	-$20,627 NOT cap gain +$21,273
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$81	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.01/sh	+$15 cycle +$515 [-$500…+$566] · 50% credit	74% surv 65%	-$26,502 NOT cap gain +$15,398
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$86	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.11/sh	-$217 cycle +$283 [-$951…+$487] · 42% credit	81% surv 77%	-$18,526 NOT cap gain +$23,374
budget: banked $500 debit $217 (43% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$283 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,884/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$2,500/mo
vs 50% target ($5,492/mo)	-54%
vs normal income ($10,985/mo)	23% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,500/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,786
… as % of IC ($56,800)	56.0%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	31.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-42,050

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $78.21	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $78-79.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $79.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$79.00 (1.4σ)	$500	$-30,766	+$11,134	+$300
+2.5%	$80.97 (1.9σ)	$-3,450	$-31,114	+$10,786	-$3,650
+5%	$82.95 (2.3σ)	$-7,400	$-31,461	+$10,439	-$7,600
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (4.8σ)	$-28,300	$-33,300	+$8,600	-$21,700

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$77	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.83/sh	+$1,245 cycle +$1,995 [+$893…+$1,467] · 99% credit	66% surv 52%	-$32,869 NOT cap gain +$9,031
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$81	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.43/sh	+$646 cycle +$1,396 [-$9…+$850] · 74% credit	76% surv 69%	-$25,570 NOT cap gain +$16,330
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$79	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.11/sh	+$171 cycle +$921 [-$343…+$308] · 44% credit	73% surv 63%	-$30,605 NOT cap gain +$11,295
Max even-money escape in the band	~$82	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.12/sh	+$181 cycle +$931 [-$561…+$355] · 42% credit	78% surv 73%	-$24,211 NOT cap gain +$17,689
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$85	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.40/sh	-$598 cycle +$152 [-$1,496…-$472] · 10% credit	83% surv 80%	-$20,430 NOT cap gain +$21,470
budget: banked $750 debit $598 (80% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$152 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $2,206/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$3,750/mo
vs 50% target ($5,492/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($10,985/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,825/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,464
… as % of IC ($56,800)	46.6%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	26.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)	$-31,537

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $76.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $76-77.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $77.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$77.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$750	$-34,114	+$7,786	+$600
+2.5%	$78.92 (1.4σ)	$-2,137	$-33,490	+$8,410	-$2,287
+5%	$80.85 (1.8σ)	$-5,025	$-32,867	+$9,033	-$5,175
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (4.8σ)	$-23,850	$-30,500	+$11,400	-$18,900

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (19 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$76	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.82/sh	+$1,556 cycle +$2,696 [+$1,071…+$1,764] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$33,120 NOT cap gain +$8,780
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$81	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.41/sh	+$773 cycle +$1,913 [-$109…+$909] · 69% credit	76% surv 70%	-$26,005 NOT cap gain +$15,895
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$78	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.10/sh	+$197 cycle +$1,337 [-$494…+$279] · 37% credit	73% surv 63%	-$31,141 NOT cap gain +$10,759
Max even-money escape in the band	~$82	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.10/sh	+$189 cycle +$1,329 [-$793…+$277] · 34% credit	78% surv 73%	-$24,765 NOT cap gain +$17,135
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$85	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.57/sh	-$1,083 cycle +$57 [-$2,339…-$1,106] · 3% credit	86% surv 83%	-$19,653 NOT cap gain +$22,247
budget: banked $1,140 debit $1,083 (95% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$57 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,335/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$5,700/mo
vs 50% target ($5,492/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($10,985/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,715/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$34,282
… as % of IC ($56,800)	60.4%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	34.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.1 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)	$-39,947

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $75.73	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $76-77.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $77.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$76.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,140	$-34,676	+$7,224	+$950
+2.5%	$78.41 (1.2σ)	$-2,494	$-34,821	+$7,079	-$2,684
+5%	$80.33 (1.7σ)	$-6,128	$-34,967	+$6,933	-$6,318
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (4.8σ)	$-30,970	$-36,300	+$5,600	-$24,700