FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $43,560/mo (45% of normal target)
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | TUNED | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Tuned | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 50 | $15.69 | $19.89 | 50 × $18 $550 cyc · $3,300/mo 93% surv · T:15% | 37 × $17.50 $592 cyc · $3,552/mo 88% surv · T:24% | 🎯 37 × $17 $888 cyc · $5,328/mo 82% surv · T:26% | 48 × $16.50 $1,776 cyc · $10,656/mo 72% surv · T:57% | — | - | -$9,791 (31.3% IC) | 26.7% |
| COPX ↗ 🎯 hedge 1 × $84 Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 20 | $73.35 | $93.99 | 20 × $80 $200 cyc · $1,200/mo 95% surv · T:9% | — | — | — | — | $795 | -$994 (1.8% IC) | 28.1% |
| ETHA ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 50 | $13.91 | $17.52 | 50 × $15.5012d $400 cyc · $1,000/mo 91% surv · T:18% | 29 × $14.50 $319 cyc · $1,914/mo 81% surv · T:40% | 🎯 44 × $14.50 $484 cyc · $2,904/mo 81% surv · T:28% | 35 × $14 $980 cyc · $5,880/mo 56% surv · T:89% | — | - | -$12,802 (59.1% IC) | 25.9% |
| MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 10d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 200 | $11.42 | $13.81 | 200 × $14.5012d $1,200 cyc · $3,000/mo 94% surv · T:13% | 🎯 152 × $12.50 $1,216 cyc · $7,296/mo 81% surv · T:46% | 131 × $12 $1,834 cyc · $11,004/mo 70% surv · T:63% | 147 × $11.50 $3,675 cyc · $22,050/mo 55% surv · T:94% | — | - | -$18,760 (170.5% IC) | 21.0% |
| SPY ↗ ⚐ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 12 | $750.72 | $690.55 | 12 × $764 $108 cyc · $648/mo 93% surv · T:14% | 10 × $756 $810 cyc · $4,860/mo 69% surv · T:62% | 🎯 12 × $755 $1,212 cyc · $7,272/mo 66% surv · T:51% | 12 × $751 $2,532 cyc · $15,192/mo 51% surv · T:98% | — | $617 | -$0 (0.0% IC) | 0.0% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1299 ↗ ⚐ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 25 | $15.69 | $40.74 | 25 × $18 $275 cyc · $1,650/mo 93% surv · T:15% | 19 × $17.50 $304 cyc · $1,824/mo 88% surv · T:24% | 🎯 19 × $17 $456 cyc · $2,736/mo 82% surv · T:26% | 24 × $16.50 $888 cyc · $5,328/mo 72% surv · T:57% | — | - | -$44,642 (0.0% IC) | 159.6% |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 ↗ ⚐ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 50 | $15.69 | $22.20 | 50 × $18 $550 cyc · $3,300/mo 93% surv · T:15% | 37 × $17.50 $592 cyc · $3,552/mo 88% surv · T:24% | 🎯 37 × $17 $888 cyc · $5,328/mo 82% surv · T:26% | 48 × $16.50 $1,776 cyc · $10,656/mo 72% surv · T:57% | — | - | -$18,334 (0.0% IC) | 41.5% |
| MARA-LC20-1782 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 10d Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 10 | $11.42 | $19.24 | 10 × $14.5012d $60 cyc · $150/mo 94% surv · T:13% | 🎯 8 × $12.50 $64 cyc · $384/mo 81% surv · T:47% | 7 × $12 $98 cyc · $588/mo 70% surv · T:63% | 8 × $11.50 $200 cyc · $1,200/mo 55% surv · T:94% | — | - | -$5,324 (123.0% IC) | 68.4% |
| MSTR-LC180 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 12d Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 10 | $94.85 | $150.00 | 10 × $107 $760 cyc · $4,560/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 10 × $106 $910 cyc · $5,460/mo 89% surv · T:29% | 9 × $102 $1,395 cyc · $8,370/mo 80% surv · T:42% | 10 × $98 $2,810 cyc · $16,860/mo 66% surv · T:71% | — | $373 | -$43,090 (81.3% IC) | 58.1% |
| TOTAL (9) | 427 | following every 🎯 $6,123 cyc · $36,738/mo | $4,103 cyc · $18,808/mo | $4,807 cyc · $28,842/mo 8 of 9 | $7,255 cyc · $43,530/mo 8 of 9 | $14,637 cyc · $87,822/mo 8 of 9 | $1,785 | -$153,738 | |||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,673 cycle +$2,223 [+$1,517…+$2,292] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$11,032 NOT cap gain +$12,618 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$326 cycle +$876 [-$272…+$935] · 65% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$1,984 NOT cap gain +$21,666 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$34 cycle +$584 [-$381…+$526] · 56% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$9,026 NOT cap gain +$14,624 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -38% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,845/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,881 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 28.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 12.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-23,675 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.00 (1.6σ) | $550 | $-12,705 | +$10,945 | +$3,100 |
| +2.5% | $18.45 (1.9σ) | $-1,700 | $-12,930 | +$10,720 | +$3,100 |
| +5% | $18.90 (2.2σ) | $-3,950 | $-13,155 | +$10,495 | +$3,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (37 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.34/sh | +$1,260 cycle +$1,852 [+$1,007…+$1,577] · 99% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$13,666 NOT cap gain +$9,984 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$626 cycle +$1,218 [-$44…+$788] · 72% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$8,508 NOT cap gain +$15,142 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$253 cycle +$845 [-$493…+$399] · 51% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$7,281 NOT cap gain +$16,369 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$49 cycle +$641 [-$486…+$176] · 39% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$12,285 NOT cap gain +$11,365 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.13/sh | -$474 cycle +$118 [-$1,318…-$344] · 13% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$8,008 NOT cap gain +$15,642 |
| budget: banked $592 debit $474 (80% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $2,953/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,552/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,690/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,237 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 26.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 11.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (37 ct) | $-17,557 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.2σ) | $592 | $-14,926 | +$8,724 | +$629 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.5σ) | $-1,027 | $-15,145 | +$8,505 | +$629 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.8σ) | $-2,646 | $-15,364 | +$8,287 | +$629 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (37 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,278 cycle +$2,166 [+$947…+$1,439] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$14,952 NOT cap gain +$8,698 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$632 cycle +$1,520 [-$108…+$727] · 70% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$9,806 NOT cap gain +$13,844 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$261 cycle +$1,149 [-$545…+$334] · 46% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$8,577 NOT cap gain +$15,073 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$70 cycle +$958 [-$510…+$135] · 34% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$13,568 NOT cap gain +$10,082 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.21/sh | -$778 cycle +$110 [-$1,748…-$777] · 2% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$8,016 NOT cap gain +$15,634 |
| budget: banked $888 debit $778 (88% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $2,273/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,328/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,466/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,791 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 31.3% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 13.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (37 ct) | $-17,557 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $888 | $-16,230 | +$7,420 | -$925 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (1.2σ) | $-684 | $-16,442 | +$7,208 | -$925 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.5σ) | $-2,257 | $-16,655 | +$6,995 | -$925 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (48 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,678 cycle +$3,454 [+$1,110…+$1,676] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,453 NOT cap gain +$7,197 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,582 cycle +$3,358 [+$518…+$1,394] · 87% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$10,816 NOT cap gain +$12,834 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$343 cycle +$2,119 [-$977…+$102] · 29% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$7,755 NOT cap gain +$15,895 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$114 cycle +$1,890 [-$830…-$65] · 22% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$14,434 NOT cap gain +$9,216 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.33/sh | -$1,606 cycle +$170 [-$3,381…-$1,968] | 91% surv 90% | -$3,254 NOT cap gain +$20,396 |
| budget: banked $1,776 debit $1,606 (90% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 48 ct earn ≈ $1,688/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,446/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,478 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 46.3% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 20.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (48 ct) | $-22,776 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,776 | $-18,131 | +$5,519 | -$576 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-204 | $-18,255 | +$5,395 | -$2,556 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.1σ) | $-2,184 | $-18,444 | +$5,207 | -$2,976 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$836 cycle +$1,111 [+$726…+$1,140] · 99% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$50,316 NOT cap gain +$6,309 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$163 cycle +$438 [-$196…+$459] · 62% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$45,792 NOT cap gain +$10,833 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$17 cycle +$292 [-$237…+$252] · 51% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$49,313 NOT cap gain +$7,312 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | -38% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,650/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$56,565 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 223.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.6 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-56,638 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.00 (1.6σ) | $275 | $-51,152 | +$5,472 | +$200 |
| +2.5% | $18.45 (1.9σ) | $-850 | $-51,265 | +$5,360 | -$925 |
| +5% | $18.90 (2.2σ) | $-1,975 | $-51,378 | +$5,248 | -$2,050 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-52,550 | $-56,435 | +$190 | -$12,300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.34/sh | +$647 cycle +$951 [+$514…+$813] · 97% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$51,584 NOT cap gain +$5,041 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$321 cycle +$625 [-$24…+$413] · 73% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$47,837 NOT cap gain +$8,788 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$130 cycle +$434 [-$249…+$208] · 51% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$46,903 NOT cap gain +$9,722 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$25 cycle +$329 [-$253…+$87] · 39% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$50,383 NOT cap gain +$6,242 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.13/sh | -$243 cycle +$61 [-$676…-$182] · 12% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$47,276 NOT cap gain +$9,349 |
| budget: banked $304 debit $243 (80% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$61 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,516/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,824/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,852/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,844 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 173.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.3 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-43,064 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.2σ) | $304 | $-52,230 | +$4,394 | +$247 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.5σ) | $-527 | $-52,077 | +$4,548 | -$584 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.8σ) | $-1,358 | $-51,924 | +$4,701 | -$1,416 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-40,793 | $-54,338 | +$2,287 | -$10,203 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$656 cycle +$1,112 [+$469…+$757] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$52,547 NOT cap gain +$4,078 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$324 cycle +$780 [-$95…+$373] · 67% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$48,807 NOT cap gain +$7,818 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$134 cycle +$590 [-$322…+$169] · 44% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$47,872 NOT cap gain +$8,753 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$36 cycle +$492 [-$291…+$69] · 35% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$51,345 NOT cap gain +$5,280 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.21/sh | -$400 cycle +$56 [-$951…-$383] · 2% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$47,281 NOT cap gain +$9,344 |
| budget: banked $456 debit $400 (88% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,167/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,736/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,764/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,642 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 176.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.4 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-43,064 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $456 | $-53,204 | +$3,422 | +$399 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (1.2σ) | $-351 | $-53,055 | +$3,570 | -$408 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.5σ) | $-1,159 | $-52,906 | +$3,719 | -$1,216 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-41,591 | $-55,136 | +$1,489 | -$11,001 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$839 cycle +$1,727 [+$565…+$869] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$53,072 NOT cap gain +$3,553 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$411 cycle +$1,299 [-$165…+$322] · 61% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$49,428 NOT cap gain +$7,197 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$172 cycle +$1,060 [-$445…+$73] · 32% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$48,542 NOT cap gain +$8,083 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$57 cycle +$945 [-$384…-$16] · 23% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$52,032 NOT cap gain +$4,593 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.33/sh | -$803 cycle +$85 [-$1,632…-$963] | 91% surv 90% | -$46,142 NOT cap gain +$10,483 |
| budget: banked $888 debit $803 (90% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $844/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,328/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,333/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$57,278 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 226.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.8 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-54,396 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $888 | $-53,912 | +$2,714 | +$816 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-102 | $-53,973 | +$2,652 | -$174 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.1σ) | $-1,092 | $-54,035 | +$2,590 | -$1,164 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-53,424 | $-58,919 | -$2,294 | -$14,784 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,673 cycle +$2,223 [+$1,517…+$2,292] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$12,182 NOT cap gain +$12,618 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$326 cycle +$876 [-$272…+$935] · 65% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$3,134 NOT cap gain +$21,666 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$34 cycle +$584 [-$381…+$526] · 56% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$10,176 NOT cap gain +$14,624 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -38% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,426 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 39.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-24,825 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.00 (1.6σ) | $550 | $-13,855 | +$10,945 | +$400 |
| +2.5% | $18.45 (1.9σ) | $-1,700 | $-14,080 | +$10,720 | -$1,850 |
| +5% | $18.90 (2.2σ) | $-3,950 | $-14,305 | +$10,495 | -$4,100 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-60,900 | $-20,000 | +$4,800 | -$24,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (37 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.34/sh | +$1,260 cycle +$1,852 [+$1,007…+$1,577] · 99% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$14,764 NOT cap gain +$10,036 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$626 cycle +$1,218 [-$44…+$788] · 72% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$7,253 NOT cap gain +$17,547 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$253 cycle +$845 [-$493…+$399] · 51% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$5,376 NOT cap gain +$19,424 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$49 cycle +$641 [-$486…+$176] · 39% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$12,330 NOT cap gain +$12,470 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.13/sh | -$474 cycle +$118 [-$1,318…-$344] · 13% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$6,103 NOT cap gain +$18,697 |
| budget: banked $592 debit $474 (80% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $2,953/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,552/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,614/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,780 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 32.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (37 ct) | $-18,408 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.2σ) | $592 | $-16,024 | +$8,776 | +$481 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.5σ) | $-1,027 | $-15,674 | +$9,126 | -$1,138 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.8σ) | $-2,646 | $-15,324 | +$9,476 | -$2,756 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-46,731 | $-15,269 | +$9,531 | -$19,869 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (37 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,278 cycle +$2,166 [+$947…+$1,439] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,700 NOT cap gain +$8,100 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$632 cycle +$1,520 [-$108…+$727] · 70% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$9,201 NOT cap gain +$15,599 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$261 cycle +$1,149 [-$545…+$334] · 46% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$7,322 NOT cap gain +$17,478 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$70 cycle +$958 [-$510…+$135] · 34% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$14,263 NOT cap gain +$10,537 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.21/sh | -$778 cycle +$110 [-$1,748…-$777] · 2% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$6,111 NOT cap gain +$18,689 |
| budget: banked $888 debit $778 (88% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $2,273/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,328/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,390/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,334 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 35.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (37 ct) | $-18,408 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $888 | $-17,978 | +$6,822 | +$777 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (1.2σ) | $-684 | $-17,638 | +$7,162 | -$795 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.5σ) | $-2,257 | $-17,298 | +$7,502 | -$2,368 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-48,285 | $-16,823 | +$7,977 | -$21,423 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (48 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,678 cycle +$3,454 [+$1,110…+$1,676] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$17,695 NOT cap gain +$7,105 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,582 cycle +$3,358 [+$518…+$1,394] · 87% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$11,896 NOT cap gain +$12,904 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$343 cycle +$2,119 [-$977…+$102] · 29% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$8,635 NOT cap gain +$16,165 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$114 cycle +$1,890 [-$830…-$65] · 22% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$15,614 NOT cap gain +$9,186 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.33/sh | -$1,606 cycle +$170 [-$3,381…-$1,968] | 91% surv 90% | -$3,834 NOT cap gain +$20,966 |
| budget: banked $1,776 debit $1,606 (90% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 48 ct earn ≈ $1,688/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,665/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,561 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 48.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (48 ct) | $-23,880 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,776 | $-19,373 | +$5,427 | +$1,632 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-204 | $-19,497 | +$5,303 | -$348 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.1σ) | $-2,184 | $-19,621 | +$5,180 | -$2,328 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-64,416 | $-24,968 | -$168 | -$29,568 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -80% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,200/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,787 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 48.9% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 27.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-39,430 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.13/sh | +$659 cycle +$1,059 [+$590…+$1,057] · 99% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$9,781 NOT cap gain +$8,619 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.13/sh | +$652 cycle +$1,052 [+$569…+$1,079] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$10,193 NOT cap gain +$8,207 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 20d left | +$0.04/sh | +$183 cycle +$583 [+$7…+$638] · 75% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$8,007 NOT cap gain +$10,393 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | -$0.08/sh | -$399 cycle +$1 [-$619…-$112] · 21% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$8,589 NOT cap gain +$9,811 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $399 (100% used ≈ 1.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $4,491/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,875/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($5,750/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $292/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,698 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 44.8% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 18.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-18,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 7d left | 3-6d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (1.4σ) | $400 | $-10,845 | +$7,555 | +$300 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (1.7σ) | $-1,537 | $-11,039 | +$7,361 | -$1,637 |
| +5% | $16.28 (2.1σ) | $-3,475 | $-11,232 | +$7,168 | -$3,575 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (3.0σ) | $-8,750 | $-11,760 | +$6,640 | -$7,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (29 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$495 cycle +$814 [+$369…+$540] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$14,484 NOT cap gain +$3,916 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$499 cycle +$818 [+$358…+$547] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$14,885 NOT cap gain +$3,515 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.19/sh | +$550 cycle +$869 [+$343…+$599] · 96% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$12,179 NOT cap gain +$6,221 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.10/sh | +$302 cycle +$621 [+$80…+$337] · 83% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$12,427 NOT cap gain +$5,973 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.06/sh | -$161 cycle +$158 [-$484…-$151] · 11% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$8,390 NOT cap gain +$10,010 |
| budget: banked $319 debit $161 (51% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$158 cash · rolled 29 ct earn ≈ $794/mo while parked; 21 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,914/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,875/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($5,750/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,311/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,438 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 39.0% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 16.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (29 ct) | $-10,701 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $319 | $-15,384 | +$3,016 | +$261 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.3σ) | $-732 | $-14,804 | +$3,596 | -$790 |
| +5% | $15.23 (1.8σ) | $-1,784 | $-14,224 | +$4,176 | -$1,842 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (4.7σ) | $-7,888 | $-11,549 | +$6,851 | -$6,989 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (44 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$750 cycle +$1,234 [+$541…+$836] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$14,094 NOT cap gain +$4,306 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$757 cycle +$1,241 [+$520…+$845] · 97% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$14,492 NOT cap gain +$3,908 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.19/sh | +$835 cycle +$1,319 [+$486…+$925] · 93% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$11,759 NOT cap gain +$6,641 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.10/sh | +$458 cycle +$942 [+$96…+$528] · 81% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$12,136 NOT cap gain +$6,264 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.06/sh | -$245 cycle +$239 [-$767…-$204] · 13% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$8,339 NOT cap gain +$10,061 |
| budget: banked $484 debit $245 (51% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$239 cash · rolled 44 ct earn ≈ $1,204/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,904/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,875/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($5,750/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,226/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,802 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 59.1% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 24.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (44 ct) | $-16,236 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $484 | $-15,249 | +$3,151 | +$396 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.3σ) | $-1,111 | $-15,213 | +$3,187 | -$1,199 |
| +5% | $15.23 (1.8σ) | $-2,706 | $-15,176 | +$3,224 | -$2,794 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (4.7σ) | $-11,968 | $-15,164 | +$3,236 | -$10,604 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (35 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.16/sh | +$546 cycle +$1,526 [+$280…+$441] · 96% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$16,034 NOT cap gain +$2,366 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.16/sh | +$562 cycle +$1,542 [+$263…+$445] · 94% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$16,423 NOT cap gain +$1,977 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.16/sh | +$566 cycle +$1,546 [+$121…+$396] · 84% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$13,764 NOT cap gain +$4,636 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.08/sh | +$291 cycle +$1,271 [-$159…+$131] · 54% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$14,039 NOT cap gain +$4,361 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.19/sh | -$664 cycle +$316 [-$1,458…-$914] | 92% surv 92% | -$8,244 NOT cap gain +$10,156 |
| budget: banked $980 debit $664 (68% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$316 cash · rolled 35 ct earn ≈ $423/mo while parked; 15 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,880/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,875/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($5,750/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,247/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,339 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 52.4% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 22.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (35 ct) | $-12,915 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $980 | $-16,985 | +$1,415 | +$910 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-245 | $-16,635 | +$1,765 | -$315 |
| +5% | $14.70 (1.1σ) | $-1,470 | $-16,285 | +$2,115 | -$1,540 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (4.7σ) | $-10,675 | $-14,150 | +$4,250 | -$9,590 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.23/sh | +$230 cycle +$290 [+$234…+$330] · 100% credit | 64% surv 54% | -$2,958 NOT cap gain +$3,062 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 20d left | +$0.36/sh | +$362 cycle +$422 [+$383…+$497] · 100% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$2,304 NOT cap gain +$3,716 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.06/sh | +$59 cycle +$119 [+$34…+$146] · 90% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$2,607 NOT cap gain +$3,413 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.06/sh | +$59 cycle +$119 [+$34…+$146] · 90% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$2,607 NOT cap gain +$3,413 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | -$0.05/sh | -$47 cycle +$13 [-$88…+$28] · 36% credit | 72% surv 67% | -$2,263 NOT cap gain +$3,757 |
| budget: banked $60 debit $47 (79% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,141/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($550/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($1,100/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $150/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,675 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 108.0% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 41.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-6,025 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 7d left | 3-6d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (1.6σ) | $60 | $-3,188 | +$2,832 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.8σ) | $-302 | $-3,224 | +$2,796 | -$312 |
| +5% | $15.23 (2.0σ) | $-665 | $-3,261 | +$2,760 | -$675 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (6.8σ) | $-9,770 | $-4,171 | +$1,849 | -$6,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.22/sh | +$177 cycle +$241 [+$169…+$208] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$4,805 NOT cap gain +$1,215 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.08/sh | +$64 cycle +$128 [+$35…+$73] · 92% credit | 70% surv 64% | -$4,396 NOT cap gain +$1,624 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.08/sh | +$64 cycle +$128 [+$12…+$71] · 80% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$2,596 NOT cap gain +$3,424 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.07/sh | -$57 cycle +$7 [-$123…-$58] · 5% credit | 89% surv 88% | -$2,267 NOT cap gain +$3,753 |
| budget: banked $64 debit $57 (89% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $237/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $384/mo |
| vs 50% target ($550/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($1,100/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $389/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,324 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 123.0% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 47.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-4,820 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $64 | $-4,982 | +$1,038 | +$56 |
| +2.5% | $12.81 (1.1σ) | $-186 | $-4,951 | +$1,069 | -$194 |
| +5% | $13.12 (1.4σ) | $-436 | $-4,920 | +$1,100 | -$444 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (10.6σ) | $-9,400 | $-4,465 | +$1,555 | -$6,744 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.21/sh | +$145 cycle +$243 [+$129…+$154] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$5,252 NOT cap gain +$768 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$47 cycle +$145 [+$16…+$46] · 90% credit | 70% surv 65% | -$4,828 NOT cap gain +$1,192 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.08/sh | +$54 cycle +$152 [-$3…+$44] · 73% credit | 79% surv 77% | -$3,471 NOT cap gain +$2,549 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$40 cycle +$138 [-$18…+$29] · 59% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$3,035 NOT cap gain +$2,985 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.08/sh | -$59 cycle +$39 [-$129…-$75] · 0% credit | 90% surv 90% | -$2,684 NOT cap gain +$3,336 |
| budget: banked $98 debit $59 (60% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$39 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $171/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $588/mo |
| vs 50% target ($550/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($1,100/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $596/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,967 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 114.7% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 43.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-4,218 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $98 | $-5,397 | +$623 | +$91 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-112 | $-5,337 | +$683 | -$119 |
| +5% | $12.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-322 | $-5,277 | +$743 | -$329 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (10.6σ) | $-8,533 | $-3,930 | +$2,090 | -$6,209 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$156 cycle +$356 [+$137…+$149] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$5,590 NOT cap gain +$430 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$13 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.14/sh | +$115 cycle +$315 [+$64…+$92] · 97% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$4,659 NOT cap gain +$1,361 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$45 cycle +$245 [-$5…+$24] · 69% credit | 70% surv 66% | -$5,179 NOT cap gain +$841 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$28 cycle +$228 [-$67…-$5] · 19% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$3,396 NOT cap gain +$2,624 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.10/sh | -$76 cycle +$124 [-$192…-$115] | 92% surv 91% | -$3,050 NOT cap gain +$2,970 |
| budget: banked $200 debit $76 (38% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $159/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($550/mo) | +118% |
| vs normal income ($1,100/mo) | 109% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,205/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,988 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 138.3% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 52.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.4 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-4,820 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.76 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.76 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $200 | $-5,746 | +$274 | +$192 |
| +2.5% | $11.79 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-30 | $-5,717 | +$303 | -$38 |
| +5% | $12.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-260 | $-5,689 | +$332 | -$268 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (10.6σ) | $-10,064 | $-5,129 | +$891 | -$7,408 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,596 cycle +$5,796 [+$4,604…+$6,602] · 100% credit | 64% surv 54% | +$56,236 SAFE cap gain +$61,236 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 20d left | +$0.36/sh | +$7,243 cycle +$8,443 [+$7,645…+$9,588] · 100% credit | 70% surv 61% | +$69,323 SAFE cap gain +$74,323 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,173 cycle +$2,373 [+$564…+$2,800] · 88% credit | 68% surv 62% | +$63,253 SAFE cap gain +$68,253 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,173 cycle +$2,373 [+$564…+$2,800] · 88% credit | 68% surv 62% | +$63,253 SAFE cap gain +$68,253 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | -$0.05/sh | -$947 cycle +$253 [-$1,847…+$443] · 32% credit | 72% surv 67% | +$70,133 SAFE cap gain +$75,133 |
| budget: banked $1,200 debit $947 (79% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$253 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $22,828/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,000/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($22,000/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-5,100 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 7d left | 3-6d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (1.6σ) | $1,200 | $51,640 | +$56,640 | +$1,000 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.8σ) | $-6,050 | $50,915 | +$55,915 | -$6,250 |
| +5% | $15.23 (2.0σ) | $-13,300 | $50,190 | +$55,190 | -$13,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (15.4σ) | $-519,800 | $-460 | +$4,540 | -$129,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (152 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.22/sh | +$3,366 cycle +$4,582 [+$3,216…+$3,876] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | +$19,070 SAFE cap gain +$24,070 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,218 cycle +$2,434 [+$668…+$1,372] · 93% credit | 70% surv 64% | +$27,362 SAFE cap gain +$32,362 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,220 cycle +$2,436 [+$217…+$1,358] · 81% credit | 82% surv 80% | +$63,364 SAFE cap gain +$68,364 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.07/sh | -$1,083 cycle +$133 [-$2,387…-$1,108] · 3% credit | 89% surv 88% | +$70,061 SAFE cap gain +$75,061 |
| budget: banked $1,216 debit $1,083 (89% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 152 ct earn ≈ $4,507/mo while parked; 48 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,296/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,000/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($22,000/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,416/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,760 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 170.5% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 170.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (152 ct) | $-3,876 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,216 | $15,704 | +$20,704 | +$1,064 |
| +2.5% | $12.81 (1.1σ) | $-3,534 | $16,579 | +$21,579 | -$3,686 |
| +5% | $13.12 (1.4σ) | $-8,284 | $17,454 | +$22,454 | -$8,436 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (23.9σ) | $-425,144 | $404 | +$5,404 | -$128,136 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (131 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.21/sh | +$2,722 cycle +$4,556 [+$2,421…+$2,886] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | +$10,065 SAFE cap gain +$15,065 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$887 cycle +$2,721 [+$283…+$834] · 89% credit | 70% surv 65% | +$18,670 SAFE cap gain +$23,670 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,006 cycle +$2,840 [-$98…+$814] · 71% credit | 79% surv 77% | +$45,789 SAFE cap gain +$50,789 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$743 cycle +$2,577 [-$373…+$539] · 57% credit | 83% surv 81% | +$54,526 SAFE cap gain +$59,526 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.08/sh | -$1,108 cycle +$726 [-$2,482…-$1,387] · 0% credit | 90% surv 90% | +$61,675 SAFE cap gain +$66,675 |
| budget: banked $1,834 debit $1,108 (60% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$726 cash · rolled 131 ct earn ≈ $3,207/mo while parked; 69 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,004/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,000/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($22,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,177/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,932 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 199.4% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 199.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (131 ct) | $-3,341 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,834 | $7,343 | +$12,343 | +$1,703 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,096 | $8,813 | +$13,813 | -$2,227 |
| +5% | $12.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-6,026 | $10,283 | +$15,283 | -$6,157 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (23.9σ) | $-372,171 | $12,343 | +$17,343 | -$116,197 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (147 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$2,859 cycle +$6,534 [+$2,513…+$2,739] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | +$3,027 SAFE cap gain +$8,027 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$13 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.14/sh | +$2,104 cycle +$5,779 [+$1,145…+$1,687] · 98% credit | 75% surv 71% | +$21,712 SAFE cap gain +$26,712 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$820 cycle +$4,495 [-$120…+$447] · 68% credit | 70% surv 66% | +$11,428 SAFE cap gain +$16,428 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$514 cycle +$4,189 [-$1,271…-$99] · 18% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$47,122 SAFE cap gain +$52,122 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.10/sh | -$1,405 cycle +$2,270 [-$3,577…-$2,118] | 92% surv 91% | +$54,203 SAFE cap gain +$59,203 |
| budget: banked $3,675 debit $1,405 (38% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,270 cash · rolled 147 ct earn ≈ $2,916/mo while parked; 53 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $22,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,000/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($22,000/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $22,182/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,343 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 275.8% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 275.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (147 ct) | $-3,749 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.76 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.76 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,675 | $168 | +$5,168 | +$3,528 |
| +2.5% | $11.79 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-551 | $1,117 | +$6,117 | -$698 |
| +5% | $12.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-4,778 | $2,066 | +$7,066 | -$4,925 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (23.9σ) | $-423,360 | $-7,582 | -$2,582 | -$136,122 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$107 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.95/sh | +$2,947 cycle +$3,707 [+$2,662…+$3,636] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,618 NOT cap gain +$14,642 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$122 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.82/sh | +$823 cycle +$1,583 [-$136…+$1,468] · 72% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$5,107 NOT cap gain +$26,153 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$113 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.28/sh | +$284 cycle +$1,044 [-$496…+$767] · 54% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$13,746 NOT cap gain +$17,514 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$127 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.18/sh | -$184 cycle +$576 [-$1,328…+$399] · 33% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$1,614 NOT cap gain +$29,646 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $184 (24% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$576 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,391/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,560/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -40% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 30% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,560/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,240 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 79.7% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 79.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,305 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $105.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $106-107.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $107.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $107.00 (1.3σ) | $760 | $-19,565 | +$11,695 | +$740 |
| +2.5% | $109.67 (1.6σ) | $-1,915 | $-19,832 | +$11,428 | -$1,935 |
| +5% | $112.35 (1.8σ) | $-4,590 | $-20,100 | +$11,160 | -$4,610 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-125,240 | $-32,165 | -$905 | -$117,260 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$106 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.90/sh | +$2,905 cycle +$3,815 [+$2,589…+$3,587] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$17,410 NOT cap gain +$13,850 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$121 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.75/sh | +$755 cycle +$1,665 [-$205…+$1,385] · 68% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$5,925 NOT cap gain +$25,335 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$112 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.25/sh | +$250 cycle +$1,160 [-$552…+$691] · 50% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$14,530 NOT cap gain +$16,730 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$131 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.82/sh | -$819 cycle +$91 [-$2,083…-$312] · 19% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$1,501 SAFE cap gain +$32,761 |
| budget: banked $910 debit $819 (90% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,526/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,460/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -28% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,460/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,090 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 81.3% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 81.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $104.94 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $105-106.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $106.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $106.00 (1.2σ) | $910 | $-20,315 | +$10,945 | +$890 |
| +2.5% | $108.65 (1.5σ) | $-1,740 | $-20,580 | +$10,680 | -$1,760 |
| +5% | $111.30 (1.7σ) | $-4,390 | $-20,845 | +$10,415 | -$4,410 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-126,090 | $-33,015 | -$1,755 | -$118,110 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$102 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.74/sh | +$2,464 cycle +$3,859 [+$2,028…+$2,694] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$20,964 NOT cap gain +$10,296 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$115 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.85/sh | +$763 cycle +$2,158 [-$291…+$878] · 63% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$10,830 NOT cap gain +$20,430 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$117 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.49/sh | +$443 cycle +$1,838 [-$640…+$549] · 46% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$9,350 NOT cap gain +$21,910 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$108 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.12/sh | +$105 cycle +$1,500 [-$739…+$163] · 33% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$17,788 NOT cap gain +$13,472 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$127 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.01/sh | -$912 cycle +$483 [-$2,243…-$891] · 5% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$1,705 NOT cap gain +$29,555 |
| budget: banked $1,395 debit $912 (65% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$483 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $2,703/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,370/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,375/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,805 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 78.9% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 78.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-28,224 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $100.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $101-103.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $103.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $102.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,395 | $-23,428 | +$7,832 | +$1,377 |
| +2.5% | $104.55 (1.0σ) | $-900 | $-23,428 | +$7,832 | -$918 |
| +5% | $107.10 (1.3σ) | $-3,195 | $-23,428 | +$7,832 | -$3,213 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-116,505 | $-24,228 | +$7,032 | -$109,323 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.57/sh | +$2,575 cycle +$5,385 [+$1,924…+$2,520] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$23,040 NOT cap gain +$8,220 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$109 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.20/sh | +$1,201 cycle +$4,011 [-$223…+$914] · 67% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$14,379 NOT cap gain +$16,881 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$103 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.56/sh | +$559 cycle +$3,369 [-$467…+$332] · 48% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$20,421 NOT cap gain +$10,839 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$113 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.25/sh | +$247 cycle +$3,057 [-$1,372…-$102] · 21% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$11,733 NOT cap gain +$19,527 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$128 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.90/sh | -$1,900 cycle +$910 [-$4,131…-$2,457] | 91% surv 91% | -$380 NOT cap gain +$30,880 |
| budget: banked $2,810 debit $1,900 (68% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$910 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,623/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | +121% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,860/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,190 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 92.8% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 92.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,320 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $97-100.87 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $100.87 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,810 | $-25,615 | +$5,645 | +$2,790 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (≤1σ, normal week) | $360 | $-25,860 | +$5,400 | +$340 |
| +5% | $102.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,090 | $-26,105 | +$5,155 | -$2,110 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-132,190 | $-39,115 | -$7,855 | -$124,210 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$764 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.58/sh | +$697 cycle +$805 [+$617…+$987] · 100% credit | 58% surv 50% | +$72,747 SAFE cap gain +$15,147 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$773 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$2.45/sh | +$2,943 cycle +$3,051 [+$2,669…+$3,328] · 100% credit | 72% surv 66% | +$85,016 SAFE cap gain +$27,416 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$765 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.14/sh | +$174 cycle +$282 [-$71…+$401] · 67% credit | 62% surv 55% | +$73,606 SAFE cap gain +$16,006 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$782 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$74 cycle +$182 [-$719…+$337] · 42% credit | 82% surv 80% | +$91,867 SAFE cap gain +$34,267 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $648/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,260/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($14,520/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $648/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $57,594 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $756.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $756-764.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $764.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $764.00 (1.2σ) | $108 | $72,050 | +$14,450 | -$456 |
| +2.5% | $783.10 (3.0σ) | $-22,812 | $69,758 | +$12,158 | -$456 |
| +5% | $802.20 (4.8σ) | $-45,732 | $67,466 | +$9,866 | -$456 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$756 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.66/sh | +$658 cycle +$1,468 [+$512…+$710] · 100% credit | 58% surv 50% | +$64,865 SAFE cap gain +$7,265 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$765 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$2.63/sh | +$2,627 cycle +$3,437 [+$2,325…+$2,664] · 100% credit | 71% surv 65% | +$76,599 SAFE cap gain +$18,999 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$757 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.22/sh | +$220 cycle +$1,030 [-$45…+$209] · 67% credit | 61% surv 55% | +$65,809 SAFE cap gain +$8,209 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$774 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.20/sh | +$195 cycle +$1,005 [-$556…+$65] · 30% credit | 82% surv 80% | +$82,088 SAFE cap gain +$24,488 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$781 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.79/sh | -$786 cycle +$24 [-$1,807…-$984] | 89% surv 88% | +$87,267 SAFE cap gain +$29,667 |
| budget: banked $810 debit $786 (97% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $995/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,260/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($14,520/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,142/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $47,990 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $748.44 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $748-756.82 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $756.82 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $756.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $810 | $64,206 | +$6,606 | +$340 |
| +2.5% | $774.90 (2.3σ) | $-18,090 | $63,538 | +$5,938 | -$7,660 |
| +5% | $793.80 (4.0σ) | $-36,990 | $61,270 | +$3,670 | -$7,660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$755 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.67/sh | +$801 cycle +$2,013 [+$619…+$849] · 100% credit | 58% surv 50% | +$64,236 SAFE cap gain +$6,636 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$764 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$2.65/sh | +$3,178 cycle +$4,390 [+$2,792…+$3,173] · 100% credit | 71% surv 65% | +$76,634 SAFE cap gain +$19,034 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$756 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.23/sh | +$275 cycle +$1,487 [-$61…+$208] · 64% credit | 61% surv 55% | +$65,092 SAFE cap gain +$7,492 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$773 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.21/sh | +$254 cycle +$1,466 [-$700…+$19] · 26% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$83,431 SAFE cap gain +$25,831 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$782 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.95/sh | -$1,138 cycle +$74 [-$2,495…-$1,485] | 91% surv 90% | +$91,759 SAFE cap gain +$34,159 |
| budget: banked $1,212 debit $1,138 (94% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $948/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,272/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,260/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($14,520/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,272/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $57,588 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $747.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $747-756.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $756.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $755.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,212 | $63,434 | +$5,834 | +$648 |
| +2.5% | $773.87 (2.2σ) | $-21,438 | $61,169 | +$3,569 | -$10,152 |
| +5% | $792.75 (3.9σ) | $-44,088 | $58,904 | +$1,304 | -$10,152 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$751 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.71/sh | +$847 cycle +$3,379 [+$618…+$739] · 100% credit | 58% surv 50% | +$61,281 SAFE cap gain +$3,681 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$760 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$2.73/sh | +$3,280 cycle +$5,812 [+$2,763…+$3,030] · 100% credit | 71% surv 65% | +$73,737 SAFE cap gain +$16,137 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$752 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.27/sh | +$319 cycle +$2,851 [-$123…+$132] · 57% credit | 61% surv 55% | +$62,136 SAFE cap gain +$4,536 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$769 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.28/sh | +$334 cycle +$2,866 [-$930…-$83] · 17% credit | 81% surv 79% | +$80,510 SAFE cap gain +$22,910 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$778 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.91/sh | -$1,087 cycle +$1,445 [-$2,891…-$1,644] | 90% surv 90% | +$88,810 SAFE cap gain +$31,210 |
| budget: banked $2,532 debit $1,087 (43% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,445 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $999/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,192/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,260/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($14,520/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,192/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $57,576 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $743.49 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $743-753.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $753.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $751.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,532 | $60,434 | +$2,834 | +$1,968 |
| +2.5% | $769.77 (1.8σ) | $-19,998 | $58,181 | +$581 | -$13,632 |
| +5% | $788.55 (3.5σ) | $-42,528 | $55,928 | -$1,672 | -$13,632 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $664.54 | $653.94 | $55.05 | $20.51 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸ |
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $34.54/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $20.51 is live theta (~$6,153). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs. | ||||||||
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50x $37.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $36.39 | $37.62 | $0.29 | $0.29 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.11 OTM. The $0.29 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$362 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $37.62 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , IBIT is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers IBIT. | ||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $364.96 | $378.34 | $1.03 | $1.03 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.04 OTM. The $1.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,292 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $378.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $96.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $92.80 | $97.00 | $0.90 | $0.90 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.70 OTM. The $0.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$543 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $97.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $171.78 | $181.61 | $3.06 | $3.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.22 OTM. The $3.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$778 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $181.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $207.40 | $219.51 | $1.50 | $1.50 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.10 OTM. The $1.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$978 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $219.51 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MARA-LC20-1782 | Joint:1782 | 40x $12C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $11.42 | $12.14 | $0.38 | $0.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.58 OTM. The $0.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$341 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $12.14 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 50x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $15.69 | $16.67 | $0.33 | $0.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.81 OTM. The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$612 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $16.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 100x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $15.69 | $16.67 | $0.33 | $0.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.81 OTM. The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,224 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $16.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $160.49 | $172.10 | $3.28 | $3.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.51 OTM. The $3.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,640 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $172.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25x $14C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $13.03 | $14.21 | $0.37 | $0.37 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.97 OTM. The $0.37 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$406 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $14.21 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $89.70 | $97.96 | $1.18 | $1.18 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.30 OTM. The $1.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$456 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $97.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $41.57 | $45.56 | $0.83 | $0.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.43 OTM. The $0.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$506 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $45.56 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $432.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $396.34 | $438.65 | $6.42 | $6.42 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 36.16 OTM. The $6.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,831 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $438.65 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $434.48 | $486.90 | $4.82 | $4.82 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 45.52 OTM. The $4.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$685 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $486.90 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $94.85 | $106.34 | $1.25 | $1.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.15 OTM. The $1.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$517 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $106.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $67.35 | $76.39 | $1.21 | $1.21 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.65 OTM. The $1.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$801 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $76.39 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50x $17.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $15.69 | $17.57 | $0.16 | $0.16 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.81 OTM. The $0.16 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$120 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $17.57 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $312.33 | $355.09 | $6.04 | $6.04 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 37.67 OTM. The $6.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$504 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $355.09 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $11.42 | $13.05 | $0.15 | $0.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.58 OTM. The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$0 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $13.05 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $11.42 | $13.04 | $0.15 | $0.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.58 OTM. The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$0 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $13.04 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $131.11 | $151.58 | $1.13 | $1.13 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.89 OTM. The $1.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$766 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $151.58 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $73.21 | $84.96 | $0.87 | $0.87 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.79 OTM. The $0.87 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $33.62 | $39.60 | $1.14 | $1.14 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.38 OTM. The $1.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,094 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $39.60 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $33.62 | $39.59 | $1.14 | $1.14 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.38 OTM. The $1.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,085 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $39.59 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $160.49 | $188.61 | $0.79 | $0.79 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 27.01 OTM. The $0.79 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,641 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $188.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| RIOT | Joint:1782 | 50x $21.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $18.26 | $21.78 | $0.25 | $0.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.24 OTM. The $0.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,150 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $21.78 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $96.98 | $117.62 | $1.89 | $1.89 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.02 OTM. The $1.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$784 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $117.62 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $32.84 | $41.03 | $0.58 | $0.58 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.16 OTM. The $0.58 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,473 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $41.03 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $848.95 | $1,047.99 | $6.20 | $6.20 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 191.05 OTM. The $6.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,588 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,047.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 125x $27C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $21.63 | $27.12 | $0.21 | $0.21 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.37 OTM. The $0.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$875 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $27.12 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $33.62 | $42.67 | $0.54 | $0.54 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.38 OTM. The $0.54 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $33.62 | $42.67 | $0.54 | $0.54 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.38 OTM. The $0.54 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $346.12 | $385.01 | $7.87 | $7.87 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.88 OTM. The $7.87 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$22,444 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $385.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $249.89 | $283.10 | $1.98 | $1.98 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 30.11 OTM. The $1.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,048 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $283.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $160.49 | $193.34 | $3.04 | $3.04 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 29.51 OTM. The $3.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$988 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $193.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $848.95 | $1,069.99 | $16.46 | $16.46 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 201.05 OTM. The $16.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,069.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER 4d | Neville:0865 | 5 | $346.12 | $367.78 | 6.3% | $370 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · 85% surv | 32% | $1,650 | $9,900/mo (63%) | $15,600/mo | sell 5x $370 CC |
| GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER 4d | Joint:1782 | 5 | $346.12 | $329.86 | 0.0% | $367.50 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · 82% surv | 37% | $1,875 | $11,250/mo (72%) | $15,600/mo | sell 5x $367.50 CC |
| NOW ↗⚡ER 4d | Main:1299 | 10 | $103.24 | $112.33 | 8.8% | $115 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · 81% surv | 39% | $2,430 | $14,580/mo (80%) | $18,150/mo | sell 10x $115 CC |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Headroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | RetireInc:7291 | 35 | $17.32 | $15.75 | +10.0% |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10 | $256.25 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $44.46 | 50x $18C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $20.74 | 25x $14C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $188C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $432C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $56.15 | 10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 125 | $39.71 | 125x $27C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $70.58 | 50x $38C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $96C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200 | $22.69 | 200x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)] |
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250 | $26.40 | 250x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| RIOT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $23.65 | 50x $22C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 71 | 55% | 85% | +29pp |
| 60-70% | 115 | 64% | 88% | +24pp |
| 70-80% | 162 | 77% | 98% | +22pp |
| 80-90% | 199 | 84% | 99% | +15pp |
| 90-100% | 340 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 59 real buyback(s) recorded · 14 roll(s), net +$0.98/sh avg.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.