FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $42,528/mo (51% of normal target)
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | TUNED | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Tuned | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 50 | $15.69 | $19.89 | 50 × $18 $550 cyc · $3,300/mo 93% surv · T:15% | 37 × $17.50 $592 cyc · $3,552/mo 88% surv · T:24% | 🎯 37 × $17 $888 cyc · $5,328/mo 82% surv · T:26% | 48 × $16.50 $1,776 cyc · $10,656/mo 72% surv · T:57% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$9,791 (31.3% IC) | 26.7% |
| COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 20 | $73.35 | $94.04 | 20 × $79 $500 cyc · $3,000/mo 92% surv · T:17% | 19 × $78 $665 cyc · $3,990/mo 88% surv · T:25% | 🎯 19 × $77 $1,045 cyc · $6,270/mo 82% surv · T:24% | 20 × $75 $2,100 cyc · $12,600/mo 67% surv · T:66% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $795 | -$31,329 (55.2% IC) | 28.2% |
| ETHA ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 50 | $13.91 | $17.52 | 🎯 50 × $15.5012d $400 cyc · $1,000/mo 90% surv · T:32% | 29 × $14.50 $319 cyc · $1,914/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 44 × $14.50 $484 cyc · $2,904/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 35 × $14 $980 cyc · $5,880/mo 56% surv · T:90% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$9,698 (44.8% IC) | 25.9% |
| MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 10d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 200 | $11.42 | $13.81 | 200 × $14.5012d $1,200 cyc · $3,000/mo 92% surv · T:16% | 🎯 152 × $12.50 $1,216 cyc · $7,296/mo 81% surv · T:46% | 131 × $12 $1,834 cyc · $11,004/mo 70% surv · T:63% | 147 × $11.50 $3,675 cyc · $22,050/mo 55% surv · T:94% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$18,760 (170.5% IC) | 21.0% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1299 ↗ ⚐ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 25 | $15.69 | $40.74 | 25 × $18 $275 cyc · $1,650/mo 93% surv · T:15% | 19 × $17.50 $304 cyc · $1,824/mo 88% surv · T:24% | 🎯 19 × $17 $456 cyc · $2,736/mo 82% surv · T:26% | 24 × $16.50 $888 cyc · $5,328/mo 72% surv · T:57% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$44,642 (0.0% IC) | 159.6% |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 ↗ ⚐ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 50 | $15.69 | $22.20 | 50 × $18 $550 cyc · $3,300/mo 93% surv · T:15% | 37 × $17.50 $592 cyc · $3,552/mo 88% surv · T:24% | 🎯 37 × $17 $888 cyc · $5,328/mo 82% surv · T:26% | 48 × $16.50 $1,776 cyc · $10,656/mo 72% surv · T:57% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$18,334 (0.0% IC) | 41.5% |
| MARA-LC20-1782 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 10d Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 10 | $11.42 | $19.24 | 10 × $14.5012d $60 cyc · $150/mo 92% surv · T:16% | 🎯 8 × $12.50 $64 cyc · $384/mo 81% surv · T:47% | 7 × $12 $98 cyc · $588/mo 70% surv · T:63% | 8 × $11.50 $200 cyc · $1,200/mo 55% surv · T:94% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$5,324 (123.0% IC) | 68.4% |
| MSTR-LC180 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 12d Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 10 | $94.85 | $150.00 | 10 × $107 $760 cyc · $4,560/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 10 × $106 $910 cyc · $5,460/mo 89% surv · T:29% | 9 × $102 $1,395 cyc · $8,370/mo 80% surv · T:42% | 10 × $98 $2,810 cyc · $16,860/mo 66% surv · T:71% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $373 | -$43,090 (81.3% IC) | 58.1% |
| TOTAL (8) | 415 | following every 🎯 $5,867 cyc · $33,802/mo | $4,295 cyc · $19,960/mo | $4,662 cyc · $27,972/mo | $7,088 cyc · $42,528/mo | $14,205 cyc · $85,230/mo | $1,168 | -$180,968 | |||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,673 cycle +$2,223 [+$1,517…+$2,292] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$11,032 NOT cap gain +$12,618 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$326 cycle +$876 [-$272…+$935] · 65% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$1,984 NOT cap gain +$21,666 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$34 cycle +$584 [-$381…+$526] · 56% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$9,026 NOT cap gain +$14,624 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -38% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,845/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,881 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 28.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 12.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-23,675 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.00 (1.6σ) | $550 | $-12,705 | +$10,945 | +$3,100 |
| +2.5% | $18.45 (1.9σ) | $-1,700 | $-12,930 | +$10,720 | +$3,100 |
| +5% | $18.90 (2.2σ) | $-3,950 | $-13,155 | +$10,495 | +$3,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (37 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.34/sh | +$1,260 cycle +$1,852 [+$1,007…+$1,577] · 99% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$13,666 NOT cap gain +$9,984 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$626 cycle +$1,218 [-$44…+$788] · 72% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$8,508 NOT cap gain +$15,142 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$253 cycle +$845 [-$493…+$399] · 51% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$7,281 NOT cap gain +$16,369 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$49 cycle +$641 [-$486…+$176] · 39% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$12,285 NOT cap gain +$11,365 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.13/sh | -$474 cycle +$118 [-$1,318…-$344] · 13% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$8,008 NOT cap gain +$15,642 |
| budget: banked $592 debit $474 (80% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $2,953/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,552/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,690/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,237 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 26.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 11.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (37 ct) | $-17,557 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.2σ) | $592 | $-14,926 | +$8,724 | +$629 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.5σ) | $-1,027 | $-15,145 | +$8,505 | +$629 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.8σ) | $-2,646 | $-15,364 | +$8,287 | +$629 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (37 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,278 cycle +$2,166 [+$947…+$1,439] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$14,952 NOT cap gain +$8,698 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$632 cycle +$1,520 [-$108…+$727] · 70% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$9,806 NOT cap gain +$13,844 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$261 cycle +$1,149 [-$545…+$334] · 46% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$8,577 NOT cap gain +$15,073 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$70 cycle +$958 [-$510…+$135] · 34% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$13,568 NOT cap gain +$10,082 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.21/sh | -$778 cycle +$110 [-$1,748…-$777] · 2% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$8,016 NOT cap gain +$15,634 |
| budget: banked $888 debit $778 (88% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $2,273/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,328/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,466/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,791 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 31.3% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 13.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (37 ct) | $-17,557 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $888 | $-16,230 | +$7,420 | -$925 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (1.2σ) | $-684 | $-16,442 | +$7,208 | -$925 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.5σ) | $-2,257 | $-16,655 | +$6,995 | -$925 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (48 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,678 cycle +$3,454 [+$1,110…+$1,676] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,453 NOT cap gain +$7,197 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,582 cycle +$3,358 [+$518…+$1,394] · 87% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$10,816 NOT cap gain +$12,834 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$343 cycle +$2,119 [-$977…+$102] · 29% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$7,755 NOT cap gain +$15,895 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$114 cycle +$1,890 [-$830…-$65] · 22% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$14,434 NOT cap gain +$9,216 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.33/sh | -$1,606 cycle +$170 [-$3,381…-$1,968] | 91% surv 90% | -$3,254 NOT cap gain +$20,396 |
| budget: banked $1,776 debit $1,606 (90% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 48 ct earn ≈ $1,688/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,446/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,478 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 46.3% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 20.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (48 ct) | $-22,776 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,776 | $-18,131 | +$5,519 | -$576 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-204 | $-18,255 | +$5,395 | -$2,556 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.1σ) | $-2,184 | $-18,444 | +$5,207 | -$2,976 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.32/sh | +$1,601 cycle +$1,851 [+$1,603…+$2,307] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$6,904 NOT cap gain +$16,746 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$911 cycle +$1,161 [+$825…+$1,523] · 91% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$6,199 NOT cap gain +$17,451 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$278 cycle +$528 [-$218…+$894] · 66% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$2,168 SAFE cap gain +$25,818 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -72% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,045/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,181 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 13.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 5.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-23,750 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $19-19.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $19.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $19.00 (2.3σ) | $250 | $-8,505 | +$15,145 | +$7,800 |
| +2.5% | $19.47 (2.6σ) | $-2,125 | $-8,742 | +$14,908 | +$7,800 |
| +5% | $19.95 (2.9σ) | $-4,500 | $-8,980 | +$14,670 | +$7,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,639 cycle +$1,989 [+$1,440…+$2,282] · 96% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$9,016 NOT cap gain +$14,634 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$950 cycle +$1,300 [+$632…+$1,532] · 87% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$8,310 NOT cap gain +$15,340 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.16/sh | +$812 cycle +$1,162 [+$80…+$1,445] · 78% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$1,698 NOT cap gain +$21,952 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$305 cycle +$655 [-$484…+$918] · 58% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$45 SAFE cap gain +$23,695 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -60% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,645/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,581 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 21.1% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 9.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-23,675 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.9σ) | $350 | $-10,655 | +$12,995 | +$5,400 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (2.2σ) | $-1,962 | $-10,886 | +$12,764 | +$5,400 |
| +5% | $19.43 (2.6σ) | $-4,275 | $-11,118 | +$12,533 | +$5,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$635 cycle +$1,571 [+$386…+$562] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$19,116 NOT cap gain +$4,534 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.33/sh | +$590 cycle +$1,526 [+$123…+$438] · 85% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$14,258 NOT cap gain +$9,392 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$129 cycle +$1,065 [-$445…-$54] · 19% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$13,419 NOT cap gain +$10,231 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$50 cycle +$986 [-$357…-$83] · 14% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$16,056 NOT cap gain +$7,594 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.33/sh | -$588 cycle +$348 [-$1,351…-$816] | 91% surv 90% | -$12,186 NOT cap gain +$11,464 |
| budget: banked $936 debit $588 (63% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$348 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $606/mo while parked; 32 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,616/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,081/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,059 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 19.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 8.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-8,541 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.54 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.54 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $936 | $-19,751 | +$3,899 | +$54 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $216 | $-18,671 | +$4,979 | -$666 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-504 | $-17,591 | +$6,059 | -$1,386 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.13 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,098 | $-17,116 | +$6,534 | -$1,746 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.36/sh | +$426 cycle +$1,326 | 68% surv 53% | -$20,462 NOT cap gain +$3,188 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$165 cycle +$1,065 | 72% surv 62% | -$19,328 NOT cap gain +$4,322 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$32 cycle +$932 | 83% surv 79% | -$14,261 NOT cap gain +$9,389 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.27/sh | -$329 cycle +$571 | 90% surv 89% | -$13,922 NOT cap gain +$9,728 |
| budget: banked $900 debit $329 (37% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$571 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $487/mo while parked; 38 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,600/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,363 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 14.0% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 6.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-5,718 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-16.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $900 | $-20,888 | +$2,762 | +$312 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (≤1σ, normal week) | $435 | $-20,464 | +$3,186 | -$153 |
| +5% | $16.28 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-30 | $-19,185 | +$4,465 | -$618 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.13 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,056 | $-16,858 | +$6,792 | -$1,488 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$836 cycle +$1,111 [+$726…+$1,140] · 99% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$50,316 NOT cap gain +$6,309 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$163 cycle +$438 [-$196…+$459] · 62% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$45,792 NOT cap gain +$10,833 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$17 cycle +$292 [-$237…+$252] · 51% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$49,313 NOT cap gain +$7,312 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | -38% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,650/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$56,565 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 223.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.6 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-56,638 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.00 (1.6σ) | $275 | $-51,152 | +$5,472 | +$200 |
| +2.5% | $18.45 (1.9σ) | $-850 | $-51,265 | +$5,360 | -$925 |
| +5% | $18.90 (2.2σ) | $-1,975 | $-51,378 | +$5,248 | -$2,050 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-52,550 | $-56,435 | +$190 | -$12,300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.34/sh | +$647 cycle +$951 [+$514…+$813] · 97% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$51,584 NOT cap gain +$5,041 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$321 cycle +$625 [-$24…+$413] · 73% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$47,837 NOT cap gain +$8,788 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$130 cycle +$434 [-$249…+$208] · 51% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$46,903 NOT cap gain +$9,722 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$25 cycle +$329 [-$253…+$87] · 39% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$50,383 NOT cap gain +$6,242 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.13/sh | -$243 cycle +$61 [-$676…-$182] · 12% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$47,276 NOT cap gain +$9,349 |
| budget: banked $304 debit $243 (80% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$61 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,516/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,824/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,852/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,844 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 173.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.3 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-43,064 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.2σ) | $304 | $-52,230 | +$4,394 | +$247 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.5σ) | $-527 | $-52,077 | +$4,548 | -$584 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.8σ) | $-1,358 | $-51,924 | +$4,701 | -$1,416 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-40,793 | $-54,338 | +$2,287 | -$10,203 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$656 cycle +$1,112 [+$469…+$757] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$52,547 NOT cap gain +$4,078 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$324 cycle +$780 [-$95…+$373] · 67% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$48,807 NOT cap gain +$7,818 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$134 cycle +$590 [-$322…+$169] · 44% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$47,872 NOT cap gain +$8,753 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$36 cycle +$492 [-$291…+$69] · 35% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$51,345 NOT cap gain +$5,280 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.21/sh | -$400 cycle +$56 [-$951…-$383] · 2% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$47,281 NOT cap gain +$9,344 |
| budget: banked $456 debit $400 (88% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,167/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,736/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,764/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,642 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 176.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.4 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-43,064 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $456 | $-53,204 | +$3,422 | +$399 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (1.2σ) | $-351 | $-53,055 | +$3,570 | -$408 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.5σ) | $-1,159 | $-52,906 | +$3,719 | -$1,216 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-41,591 | $-55,136 | +$1,489 | -$11,001 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$839 cycle +$1,727 [+$565…+$869] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$53,072 NOT cap gain +$3,553 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$411 cycle +$1,299 [-$165…+$322] · 61% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$49,428 NOT cap gain +$7,197 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$172 cycle +$1,060 [-$445…+$73] · 32% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$48,542 NOT cap gain +$8,083 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$57 cycle +$945 [-$384…-$16] · 23% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$52,032 NOT cap gain +$4,593 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.33/sh | -$803 cycle +$85 [-$1,632…-$963] | 91% surv 90% | -$46,142 NOT cap gain +$10,483 |
| budget: banked $888 debit $803 (90% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $844/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,328/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,333/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$57,278 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 226.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.8 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-54,396 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $888 | $-53,912 | +$2,714 | +$816 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-102 | $-53,973 | +$2,652 | -$174 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.1σ) | $-1,092 | $-54,035 | +$2,590 | -$1,164 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-53,424 | $-58,919 | -$2,294 | -$14,784 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.32/sh | +$800 cycle +$925 [+$812…+$1,130] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$48,252 NOT cap gain +$8,373 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$456 cycle +$581 [+$351…+$749] · 91% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$47,899 NOT cap gain +$8,726 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$139 cycle +$264 [-$193…+$415] · 67% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$43,716 NOT cap gain +$12,909 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | -72% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$54,215 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 214.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.2 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-56,675 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $19-19.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $19.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $19.00 (2.3σ) | $125 | $-49,052 | +$7,572 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $19.47 (2.6σ) | $-1,062 | $-49,171 | +$7,454 | -$1,137 |
| +5% | $19.95 (2.9σ) | $-2,250 | $-49,290 | +$7,335 | -$2,325 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-50,200 | $-54,085 | +$2,540 | -$9,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$820 cycle +$995 [+$747…+$1,142] · 98% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$49,308 NOT cap gain +$7,317 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$475 cycle +$650 [+$324…+$769] · 89% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$48,955 NOT cap gain +$7,670 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$152 cycle +$327 [-$215…+$470] · 65% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$44,778 NOT cap gain +$11,847 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | -60% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,050/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$55,415 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 218.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.4 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-56,638 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.9σ) | $175 | $-50,128 | +$6,498 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (2.2σ) | $-981 | $-50,243 | +$6,382 | -$1,056 |
| +5% | $19.43 (2.6σ) | $-2,138 | $-50,359 | +$6,266 | -$2,212 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-51,400 | $-55,285 | +$1,340 | -$11,150 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$318 cycle +$786 [+$190…+$280] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$55,094 NOT cap gain +$1,531 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.33/sh | +$295 cycle +$763 [+$59…+$217] · 84% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$52,169 NOT cap gain +$4,456 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$64 cycle +$532 [-$226…-$27] · 18% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$50,150 NOT cap gain +$6,475 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$25 cycle +$493 [-$181…-$42] · 14% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$53,564 NOT cap gain +$3,061 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.33/sh | -$294 cycle +$174 [-$683…-$406] | 91% surv 90% | -$47,133 NOT cap gain +$9,492 |
| budget: banked $468 debit $294 (63% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$174 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $303/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,808/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,884/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,794 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 86.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-20,398 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.54 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.54 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $468 | $-55,412 | +$1,214 | +$441 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $108 | $-54,872 | +$1,754 | +$81 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-252 | $-54,332 | +$2,294 | -$279 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-20,349 | $-49,994 | +$6,631 | -$5,859 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.36/sh | +$213 cycle +$663 | 68% surv 53% | -$55,905 NOT cap gain +$720 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$83 cycle +$533 | 72% surv 62% | -$55,338 NOT cap gain +$1,287 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$16 cycle +$466 | 83% surv 79% | -$50,904 NOT cap gain +$5,721 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.27/sh | -$165 cycle +$285 | 90% surv 89% | -$48,835 NOT cap gain +$7,790 |
| budget: banked $450 debit $165 (37% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$285 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $243/mo while parked; 19 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,656/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($5,313/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,790/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,692 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($25,320) | 58.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-13,611 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-16.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $450 | $-56,118 | +$507 | +$432 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (≤1σ, normal week) | $218 | $-55,906 | +$719 | +$200 |
| +5% | $16.28 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-15 | $-55,267 | +$1,358 | -$33 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (16.1σ) | $-13,728 | $-48,203 | +$8,422 | -$4,068 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,673 cycle +$2,223 [+$1,517…+$2,292] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$12,182 NOT cap gain +$12,618 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$326 cycle +$876 [-$272…+$935] · 65% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$3,134 NOT cap gain +$21,666 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$34 cycle +$584 [-$381…+$526] · 56% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$10,176 NOT cap gain +$14,624 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -38% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,426 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 39.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-24,825 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.00 (1.6σ) | $550 | $-13,855 | +$10,945 | +$400 |
| +2.5% | $18.45 (1.9σ) | $-1,700 | $-14,080 | +$10,720 | -$1,850 |
| +5% | $18.90 (2.2σ) | $-3,950 | $-14,305 | +$10,495 | -$4,100 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-60,900 | $-20,000 | +$4,800 | -$24,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (37 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.34/sh | +$1,260 cycle +$1,852 [+$1,007…+$1,577] · 99% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$14,764 NOT cap gain +$10,036 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$626 cycle +$1,218 [-$44…+$788] · 72% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$7,253 NOT cap gain +$17,547 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$253 cycle +$845 [-$493…+$399] · 51% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$5,376 NOT cap gain +$19,424 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$49 cycle +$641 [-$486…+$176] · 39% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$12,330 NOT cap gain +$12,470 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.13/sh | -$474 cycle +$118 [-$1,318…-$344] · 13% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$6,103 NOT cap gain +$18,697 |
| budget: banked $592 debit $474 (80% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $2,953/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,552/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,614/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,780 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 32.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (37 ct) | $-18,408 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.2σ) | $592 | $-16,024 | +$8,776 | +$481 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.5σ) | $-1,027 | $-15,674 | +$9,126 | -$1,138 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.8σ) | $-2,646 | $-15,324 | +$9,476 | -$2,756 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-46,731 | $-15,269 | +$9,531 | -$19,869 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (37 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,278 cycle +$2,166 [+$947…+$1,439] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,700 NOT cap gain +$8,100 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$632 cycle +$1,520 [-$108…+$727] · 70% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$9,201 NOT cap gain +$15,599 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$261 cycle +$1,149 [-$545…+$334] · 46% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$7,322 NOT cap gain +$17,478 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$70 cycle +$958 [-$510…+$135] · 34% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$14,263 NOT cap gain +$10,537 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.21/sh | -$778 cycle +$110 [-$1,748…-$777] · 2% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$6,111 NOT cap gain +$18,689 |
| budget: banked $888 debit $778 (88% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $2,273/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,328/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,390/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,334 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 35.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (37 ct) | $-18,408 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $888 | $-17,978 | +$6,822 | +$777 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (1.2σ) | $-684 | $-17,638 | +$7,162 | -$795 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.5σ) | $-2,257 | $-17,298 | +$7,502 | -$2,368 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-48,285 | $-16,823 | +$7,977 | -$21,423 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (48 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,678 cycle +$3,454 [+$1,110…+$1,676] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$17,695 NOT cap gain +$7,105 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,582 cycle +$3,358 [+$518…+$1,394] · 87% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$11,896 NOT cap gain +$12,904 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$343 cycle +$2,119 [-$977…+$102] · 29% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$8,635 NOT cap gain +$16,165 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$114 cycle +$1,890 [-$830…-$65] · 22% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$15,614 NOT cap gain +$9,186 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.33/sh | -$1,606 cycle +$170 [-$3,381…-$1,968] | 91% surv 90% | -$3,834 NOT cap gain +$20,966 |
| budget: banked $1,776 debit $1,606 (90% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 48 ct earn ≈ $1,688/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,665/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,561 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 48.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (48 ct) | $-23,880 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,776 | $-19,373 | +$5,427 | +$1,632 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-204 | $-19,497 | +$5,303 | -$348 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.1σ) | $-2,184 | $-19,621 | +$5,180 | -$2,328 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-64,416 | $-24,968 | -$168 | -$29,568 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.32/sh | +$1,601 cycle +$1,851 [+$1,603…+$2,307] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$8,054 NOT cap gain +$16,746 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$911 cycle +$1,161 [+$825…+$1,523] · 91% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$7,349 NOT cap gain +$17,451 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$278 cycle +$528 [-$218…+$894] · 66% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$1,018 SAFE cap gain +$25,818 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -72% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,726 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 30.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-24,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $19-19.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $19.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $19.00 (2.3σ) | $250 | $-9,655 | +$15,145 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $19.47 (2.6σ) | $-2,125 | $-9,893 | +$14,908 | -$2,275 |
| +5% | $19.95 (2.9σ) | $-4,500 | $-10,130 | +$14,670 | -$4,650 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-56,200 | $-15,300 | +$9,500 | -$19,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,639 cycle +$1,989 [+$1,440…+$2,282] · 96% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$10,166 NOT cap gain +$14,634 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$950 cycle +$1,300 [+$632…+$1,532] · 87% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$9,460 NOT cap gain +$15,340 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.16/sh | +$812 cycle +$1,162 [+$80…+$1,445] · 78% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$2,848 NOT cap gain +$21,952 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$305 cycle +$655 [-$484…+$918] · 58% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$1,105 NOT cap gain +$23,695 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | -60% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,100/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,126 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 34.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-24,825 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.9σ) | $350 | $-11,805 | +$12,995 | +$200 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (2.2σ) | $-1,962 | $-12,036 | +$12,764 | -$2,112 |
| +5% | $19.43 (2.6σ) | $-4,275 | $-12,268 | +$12,533 | -$4,425 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-58,600 | $-17,700 | +$7,100 | -$22,300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.35/sh | +$635 cycle +$1,571 [+$386…+$562] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$21,738 NOT cap gain +$3,062 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.33/sh | +$590 cycle +$1,526 [+$123…+$438] · 85% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$15,888 NOT cap gain +$8,912 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$129 cycle +$1,065 [-$445…-$54] · 19% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$11,849 NOT cap gain +$12,951 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$50 cycle +$986 [-$357…-$83] · 14% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$18,678 NOT cap gain +$6,122 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.33/sh | -$588 cycle +$348 [-$1,351…-$816] | 91% surv 90% | -$5,816 NOT cap gain +$18,984 |
| budget: banked $936 debit $588 (63% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$348 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $606/mo while parked; 32 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,616/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,768/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,215 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 19.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-8,955 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.54 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.54 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $936 | $-22,373 | +$2,427 | +$882 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $216 | $-21,293 | +$3,507 | +$162 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-504 | $-20,213 | +$4,587 | -$558 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-24,786 | $-7,118 | +$17,682 | -$11,718 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.36/sh | +$426 cycle +$1,326 | 68% surv 53% | -$23,360 NOT cap gain +$1,440 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$165 cycle +$1,065 | 72% surv 62% | -$22,226 NOT cap gain +$2,574 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$32 cycle +$932 | 83% surv 79% | -$13,359 NOT cap gain +$11,441 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.27/sh | -$329 cycle +$571 | 90% surv 89% | -$9,220 NOT cap gain +$15,580 |
| budget: banked $900 debit $329 (37% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$571 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $487/mo while parked; 38 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,313/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($10,625/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,580/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,134 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 13.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-5,994 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-16.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $900 | $-23,786 | +$1,014 | +$864 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (≤1σ, normal week) | $435 | $-23,362 | +$1,438 | +$399 |
| +5% | $16.28 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-30 | $-22,084 | +$2,717 | -$66 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (10.0σ) | $-16,848 | $-3,536 | +$21,264 | -$8,136 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,791 cycle +$2,291 [+$1,495…+$2,427] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$26,819 NOT cap gain +$12,461 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.85/sh | +$1,703 cycle +$2,203 [+$1,403…+$2,322] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$26,637 NOT cap gain +$12,643 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$575 cycle +$1,075 [-$163…+$1,170] · 68% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$18,765 NOT cap gain +$20,515 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.22/sh | -$437 cycle +$63 [-$1,372…+$100] · 26% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$17,077 NOT cap gain +$22,203 |
| budget: banked $500 debit $437 (87% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$63 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,580/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -50% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 25% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,578 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 52.1% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 29.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-39,430 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-79.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (1.5σ) | $500 | $-28,610 | +$10,670 | +$300 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (2.0σ) | $-3,450 | $-29,005 | +$10,275 | -$3,650 |
| +5% | $82.95 (2.5σ) | $-7,400 | $-29,400 | +$9,880 | -$7,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-28,300 | $-31,490 | +$7,790 | -$21,700 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.87/sh | +$1,656 cycle +$2,321 [+$1,246…+$2,254] · 97% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$28,579 NOT cap gain +$10,701 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.83/sh | +$1,571 cycle +$2,236 [+$1,154…+$2,153] · 97% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$28,394 NOT cap gain +$10,886 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.24/sh | +$457 cycle +$1,122 [-$441…+$986] · 60% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$20,508 NOT cap gain +$18,772 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.25/sh | -$477 cycle +$188 [-$1,590…-$4] · 25% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$18,742 NOT cap gain +$20,538 |
| budget: banked $665 debit $477 (72% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$188 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $3,220/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,990/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,006/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,809 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 52.5% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 29.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-37,458 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.2σ) | $665 | $-30,235 | +$9,045 | +$475 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.7σ) | $-3,040 | $-30,430 | +$8,850 | -$3,230 |
| +5% | $81.90 (2.2σ) | $-6,745 | $-30,625 | +$8,655 | -$6,935 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-28,595 | $-32,115 | +$7,165 | -$22,325 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$77 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.85/sh | +$1,611 cycle +$2,656 [+$1,143…+$2,036] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$30,044 NOT cap gain +$9,236 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$77 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.80/sh | +$1,525 cycle +$2,570 [+$1,054…+$1,938] · 98% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$29,860 NOT cap gain +$9,420 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.35/sh | +$668 cycle +$1,713 [-$220…+$952] · 66% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$22,617 NOT cap gain +$16,663 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.20/sh | +$371 cycle +$1,416 [-$568…+$622] · 52% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$22,014 NOT cap gain +$17,266 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.38/sh | -$727 cycle +$318 [-$1,898…-$531] · 11% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$18,612 NOT cap gain +$20,668 |
| budget: banked $1,045 debit $727 (70% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$318 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,804/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,270/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,286/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,329 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 55.2% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 31.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-37,458 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-77.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,045 | $-31,655 | +$7,625 | +$855 |
| +2.5% | $78.92 (1.5σ) | $-2,612 | $-31,847 | +$7,433 | -$2,802 |
| +5% | $80.85 (2.0σ) | $-6,270 | $-32,040 | +$7,240 | -$6,460 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-30,115 | $-33,635 | +$5,645 | -$23,845 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$75 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.80/sh | +$1,604 cycle +$3,704 [+$843…+$1,508] · 96% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$32,606 NOT cap gain +$6,674 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$75 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.75/sh | +$1,510 cycle +$3,610 [+$742…+$1,405] · 95% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$32,430 NOT cap gain +$6,850 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.76/sh | +$1,517 cycle +$3,617 [+$322…+$1,296] · 85% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$27,023 NOT cap gain +$12,257 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.11/sh | +$217 cycle +$2,317 [-$1,260…-$89] · 20% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$24,723 NOT cap gain +$14,557 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.04/sh | -$2,078 cycle +$22 [-$4,208…-$2,583] | 91% surv 91% | -$13,518 NOT cap gain +$25,762 |
| budget: banked $2,100 debit $2,078 (99% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$22 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,099/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +110% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,600/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,978 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 63.3% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 35.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-39,430 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $74.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $74-76.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $75.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,100 | $-34,210 | +$5,070 | +$1,900 |
| +2.5% | $76.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,650 | $-34,585 | +$4,695 | -$1,850 |
| +5% | $78.75 (1.4σ) | $-5,400 | $-34,960 | +$4,320 | -$5,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-34,700 | $-37,890 | +$1,390 | -$28,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$84 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$1.02/sh | +$2,038 cycle +$2,138 | 67% surv 52% | -$17,972 NOT cap gain +$21,308 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$84 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.98/sh | +$1,959 cycle +$2,059 | 67% surv 53% | -$17,781 NOT cap gain +$21,499 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.16/sh | +$324 cycle +$424 | 78% surv 72% | -$8,616 NOT cap gain +$30,664 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $600/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,978 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 35.2% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 19.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-39,530 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $83.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $83-84.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $84.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $84.00 (2.8σ) | $100 | $-20,010 | +$19,270 | -$100 |
| +2.5% | $86.10 (3.3σ) | $-4,100 | $-20,430 | +$18,850 | -$4,300 |
| +5% | $88.20 (3.9σ) | $-8,300 | $-20,850 | +$18,430 | -$8,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-18,700 | $-21,890 | +$17,390 | -$12,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$83 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.99/sh | +$1,987 cycle +$2,087 | 67% surv 52% | -$19,823 NOT cap gain +$19,457 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$83 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.95/sh | +$1,906 cycle +$2,006 | 67% surv 53% | -$19,634 NOT cap gain +$19,646 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$89 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.12/sh | +$235 cycle +$335 | 78% surv 73% | -$10,505 NOT cap gain +$28,775 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $600/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,978 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 38.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 21.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-39,430 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $82.17 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $82-83.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $83.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $83.00 (2.5σ) | $100 | $-21,810 | +$17,470 | -$100 |
| +2.5% | $85.07 (3.1σ) | $-4,050 | $-22,225 | +$17,055 | -$4,250 |
| +5% | $87.15 (3.6σ) | $-8,200 | $-22,640 | +$16,640 | -$8,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-20,700 | $-23,890 | +$15,390 | -$14,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$81 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.94/sh | +$1,888 cycle +$1,988 [+$1,733…+$2,685] · 97% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$23,522 NOT cap gain +$15,758 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,803 cycle +$1,903 [+$1,642…+$2,588] · 97% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$23,337 NOT cap gain +$15,943 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$66 cycle +$166 [-$572…+$979] · 63% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$14,274 NOT cap gain +$25,006 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $600/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,978 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 45.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 25.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-39,530 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.19 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-81.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.00 (2.0σ) | $100 | $-25,410 | +$13,870 | -$100 |
| +2.5% | $83.02 (2.5σ) | $-3,950 | $-25,815 | +$13,465 | -$4,150 |
| +5% | $85.05 (3.1σ) | $-8,000 | $-26,220 | +$13,060 | -$8,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-24,700 | $-27,890 | +$11,390 | -$18,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.92/sh | +$1,839 cycle +$2,039 [+$1,601…+$2,581] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$25,271 NOT cap gain +$14,009 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$80 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.88/sh | +$1,753 cycle +$1,953 [+$1,513…+$2,487] · 97% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$25,087 NOT cap gain +$14,193 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.34/sh | +$670 cycle +$870 [-$45…+$1,489] · 75% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$17,170 NOT cap gain +$22,110 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.01/sh | -$15 cycle +$185 [-$833…+$788] · 51% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$16,055 NOT cap gain +$23,225 |
| budget: banked $200 debit $15 (8% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$185 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,218/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -80% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,200/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,878 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 49.1% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 27.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-39,430 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-80.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.00 (1.7σ) | $200 | $-27,110 | +$12,170 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $82.00 (2.3σ) | $-3,800 | $-27,510 | +$11,770 | -$4,000 |
| +5% | $84.00 (2.8σ) | $-7,800 | $-27,910 | +$11,370 | -$8,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-26,600 | $-29,790 | +$9,490 | -$20,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$76 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.84/sh | +$1,422 cycle +$2,442 [+$927…+$1,674] · 97% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$31,138 NOT cap gain +$8,142 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$77 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.79/sh | +$1,344 cycle +$2,364 [+$846…+$1,580] · 96% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$30,946 NOT cap gain +$8,334 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.43/sh | +$729 cycle +$1,749 [-$160…+$904] · 68% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$24,361 NOT cap gain +$14,919 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$294 cycle +$1,314 [-$670…+$449] · 44% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$22,996 NOT cap gain +$16,284 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.40/sh | -$677 cycle +$343 [-$1,845…-$558] · 10% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$19,467 NOT cap gain +$19,813 |
| budget: banked $1,020 debit $677 (66% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$343 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,431/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,167/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,796 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 50.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 28.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-33,558 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-77.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $76.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,020 | $-32,560 | +$6,720 | +$850 |
| +2.5% | $78.41 (1.3σ) | $-2,231 | $-32,369 | +$6,911 | -$2,401 |
| +5% | $80.33 (1.8σ) | $-5,483 | $-32,177 | +$7,103 | -$5,653 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-27,710 | $-31,890 | +$7,390 | -$22,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$76 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.82/sh | +$1,237 cycle +$2,287 [+$746…+$1,325] · 97% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$32,173 NOT cap gain +$7,107 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$76 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.78/sh | +$1,168 cycle +$2,218 [+$676…+$1,253] · 97% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$31,972 NOT cap gain +$7,308 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.51/sh | +$758 cycle +$1,808 [-$145…+$732] · 69% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$26,082 NOT cap gain +$13,198 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.15/sh | +$227 cycle +$1,277 [-$764…+$163] · 33% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$23,913 NOT cap gain +$15,367 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$83 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.67/sh | -$1,003 cycle +$47 [-$2,284…-$1,204] · 0% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$22,443 NOT cap gain +$16,837 |
| budget: banked $1,050 debit $1,003 (96% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$47 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $2,397/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,379/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,008 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 45.8% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 25.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-29,722 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.24 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $75-76.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $76.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,050 | $-33,410 | +$5,870 | +$900 |
| +2.5% | $77.90 (1.2σ) | $-1,800 | $-32,840 | +$6,440 | -$1,950 |
| +5% | $79.80 (1.7σ) | $-4,650 | $-32,270 | +$7,010 | -$4,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-25,050 | $-29,890 | +$9,390 | -$20,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.78/sh | +$546 cycle +$1,561 [+$228…+$439] · 93% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$36,419 NOT cap gain +$2,861 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$74 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.73/sh | +$512 cycle +$1,527 [+$193…+$403] · 91% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$36,183 NOT cap gain +$3,097 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.71/sh | +$494 cycle +$1,509 [-$10…+$312] · 74% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$30,801 NOT cap gain +$8,479 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$47 cycle +$1,062 [-$571…-$170] · 12% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$27,648 NOT cap gain +$11,632 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.04/sh | -$727 cycle +$288 [-$1,631…-$1,014] | 92% surv 91% | -$14,922 NOT cap gain +$24,358 |
| budget: banked $1,015 debit $727 (72% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$288 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $348/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,090/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,295/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,012 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 22.9% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 12.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-13,853 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $73.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-75.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $74.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,015 | $-36,965 | +$2,315 | +$945 |
| +2.5% | $75.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-280 | $-34,930 | +$4,350 | -$350 |
| +5% | $77.70 (1.1σ) | $-1,575 | $-32,895 | +$6,385 | -$1,645 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-12,565 | $-20,045 | +$19,235 | -$10,255 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.77/sh | +$461 cycle +$1,481 [+$153…+$331] · 90% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$37,389 NOT cap gain +$1,891 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$74 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.72/sh | +$432 cycle +$1,452 [+$122…+$303] · 88% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$37,148 NOT cap gain +$2,132 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.68/sh | +$408 cycle +$1,428 [-$82…+$224] · 66% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$31,772 NOT cap gain +$7,508 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$28 cycle +$1,048 [-$578…-$185] · 9% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$28,552 NOT cap gain +$10,728 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.04/sh | -$623 cycle +$397 [-$1,505…-$899] | 92% surv 92% | -$15,703 NOT cap gain +$23,577 |
| budget: banked $1,020 debit $623 (61% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$397 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $283/mo while parked; 14 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,341/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,303 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 19.9% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 11.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-11,844 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-75.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,020 | $-37,850 | +$1,430 | +$960 |
| +2.5% | $75.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-82 | $-35,645 | +$3,635 | -$142 |
| +5% | $77.17 (1.0σ) | $-1,185 | $-33,440 | +$5,840 | -$1,245 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-10,920 | $-18,730 | +$20,550 | -$8,940 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$73 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.76/sh | +$454 cycle +$1,624 | 67% surv 51% | -$37,516 NOT cap gain +$1,764 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$74 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.54/sh | +$324 cycle +$1,494 | 69% surv 55% | -$37,376 NOT cap gain +$1,904 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.08/sh | +$46 cycle +$1,216 | 79% surv 74% | -$29,554 NOT cap gain +$9,726 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.97/sh | -$585 cycle +$585 | 90% surv 89% | -$19,385 NOT cap gain +$19,895 |
| budget: banked $1,170 debit $585 (50% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$585 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $316/mo while parked; 14 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,020/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +17% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 58% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,241/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,453 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 20.2% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 11.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-11,874 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-75.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,170 | $-37,970 | +$1,310 | +$1,110 |
| +2.5% | $74.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $75 | $-36,410 | +$2,870 | +$15 |
| +5% | $76.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,020 | $-34,220 | +$5,060 | -$1,080 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-11,070 | $-18,880 | +$20,400 | -$9,090 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$72 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.74/sh | +$294 cycle +$1,314 | 67% surv 51% | -$37,806 NOT cap gain +$1,474 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$74 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.09/sh | +$35 cycle +$1,055 | 72% surv 63% | -$37,795 NOT cap gain +$1,485 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.19/sh | +$75 cycle +$1,095 | 78% surv 73% | -$32,355 NOT cap gain +$6,925 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.05/sh | -$419 cycle +$601 | 92% surv 92% | -$19,349 NOT cap gain +$19,931 |
| budget: banked $1,020 debit $419 (41% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$601 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $155/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,373/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,796 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 13.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 7.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-7,916 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $71.28 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $71-74.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $72.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,020 | $-38,100 | +$1,180 | +$980 |
| +2.5% | $73.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $300 | $-38,010 | +$1,270 | +$260 |
| +5% | $75.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-420 | $-35,490 | +$3,790 | -$460 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (5.2σ) | $-7,540 | $-16,010 | +$23,270 | -$6,220 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.14/sh | +$681 cycle +$1,081 [+$620…+$1,031] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$9,759 NOT cap gain +$8,641 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.13/sh | +$674 cycle +$1,074 [+$597…+$1,039] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$10,171 NOT cap gain +$8,229 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 20d left | +$0.03/sh | +$174 cycle +$574 [-$35…+$531] · 70% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$8,016 NOT cap gain +$10,384 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | -$0.08/sh | -$377 cycle +$23 [-$590…-$130] · 17% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$8,567 NOT cap gain +$9,833 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $377 (94% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $4,491/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,875/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($5,750/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $292/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,698 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 44.8% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 18.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-18,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 7d left | 3-6d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (1.3σ) | $400 | $-10,845 | +$7,555 | +$300 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (1.7σ) | $-1,537 | $-11,039 | +$7,361 | -$1,637 |
| +5% | $16.28 (2.0σ) | $-3,475 | $-11,232 | +$7,168 | -$3,575 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (2.9σ) | $-8,750 | $-11,760 | +$6,640 | -$7,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (29 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$513 cycle +$832 [+$412…+$557] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$14,466 NOT cap gain +$3,934 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$517 cycle +$836 [+$402…+$564] · 100% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$14,867 NOT cap gain +$3,533 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.19/sh | +$565 cycle +$884 [+$368…+$611] · 97% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$12,164 NOT cap gain +$6,236 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$152 cycle +$471 [-$105…+$175] · 54% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$10,327 NOT cap gain +$8,073 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.05/sh | -$147 cycle +$172 [-$462…-$145] · 12% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$8,376 NOT cap gain +$10,024 |
| budget: banked $319 debit $147 (46% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$172 cash · rolled 29 ct earn ≈ $785/mo while parked; 21 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,914/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,875/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($5,750/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,311/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,438 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 39.0% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 16.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (29 ct) | $-10,701 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $319 | $-15,384 | +$3,016 | +$261 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.2σ) | $-732 | $-14,804 | +$3,596 | -$790 |
| +5% | $15.23 (1.7σ) | $-1,784 | $-14,224 | +$4,176 | -$1,842 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (4.4σ) | $-7,888 | $-11,549 | +$6,851 | -$6,989 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (44 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$778 cycle +$1,262 [+$615…+$887] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$14,066 NOT cap gain +$4,334 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$785 cycle +$1,269 [+$597…+$886] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$14,464 NOT cap gain +$3,936 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.19/sh | +$857 cycle +$1,341 [+$546…+$938] · 96% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$11,737 NOT cap gain +$6,663 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$231 cycle +$715 [-$176…+$288] · 54% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$10,113 NOT cap gain +$8,287 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.05/sh | -$223 cycle +$261 [-$721…-$184] · 13% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$8,317 NOT cap gain +$10,083 |
| budget: banked $484 debit $223 (46% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$261 cash · rolled 44 ct earn ≈ $1,192/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,904/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,875/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($5,750/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,226/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,802 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 59.1% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 24.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (44 ct) | $-16,236 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $484 | $-15,249 | +$3,151 | +$396 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.2σ) | $-1,111 | $-15,213 | +$3,187 | -$1,199 |
| +5% | $15.23 (1.7σ) | $-2,706 | $-15,176 | +$3,224 | -$2,794 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (4.4σ) | $-11,968 | $-15,164 | +$3,236 | -$10,604 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (35 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.16/sh | +$566 cycle +$1,546 [+$373…+$493] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$16,014 NOT cap gain +$2,386 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$581 cycle +$1,561 [+$353…+$495] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$16,404 NOT cap gain +$1,996 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$586 cycle +$1,566 [+$190…+$424] · 89% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$13,744 NOT cap gain +$4,656 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$104 cycle +$1,084 [-$401…-$80] · 15% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$11,976 NOT cap gain +$6,424 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.17/sh | -$599 cycle +$381 [-$1,358…-$846] | 92% surv 92% | -$5,929 NOT cap gain +$12,471 |
| budget: banked $980 debit $599 (61% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$381 cash · rolled 35 ct earn ≈ $340/mo while parked; 15 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,880/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,875/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($5,750/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,247/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,339 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 52.4% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 22.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (35 ct) | $-12,915 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $980 | $-16,985 | +$1,415 | +$910 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-245 | $-16,635 | +$1,765 | -$315 |
| +5% | $14.70 (1.0σ) | $-1,470 | $-16,285 | +$2,115 | -$1,540 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (4.4σ) | $-10,675 | $-14,150 | +$4,250 | -$9,590 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.23/sh | +$227 cycle +$287 [+$226…+$327] · 100% credit | 64% surv 54% | -$2,961 NOT cap gain +$3,059 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.06/sh | +$61 cycle +$121 [+$40…+$146] · 92% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$2,605 NOT cap gain +$3,415 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.06/sh | +$61 cycle +$121 [+$40…+$146] · 92% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$2,605 NOT cap gain +$3,415 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | -$0.04/sh | -$45 cycle +$15 [-$81…+$28] · 38% credit | 72% surv 67% | -$2,261 NOT cap gain +$3,759 |
| budget: banked $60 debit $45 (75% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,141/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($550/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($1,100/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $150/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,675 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 108.0% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 41.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-6,025 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 7d left | 3-6d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (1.6σ) | $60 | $-3,188 | +$2,832 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.8σ) | $-302 | $-3,224 | +$2,796 | -$312 |
| +5% | $15.23 (2.0σ) | $-665 | $-3,261 | +$2,760 | -$675 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (6.7σ) | $-9,770 | $-4,171 | +$1,849 | -$5,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.22/sh | +$177 cycle +$241 [+$164…+$204] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$4,805 NOT cap gain +$1,215 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.08/sh | +$64 cycle +$128 [+$32…+$72] · 90% credit | 69% surv 64% | -$4,396 NOT cap gain +$1,624 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.07/sh | +$59 cycle +$123 [+$13…+$67] · 81% credit | 78% surv 75% | -$3,501 NOT cap gain +$2,519 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.02/sh | +$17 cycle +$81 [-$37…+$22] · 39% credit | 81% surv 79% | -$3,093 NOT cap gain +$2,927 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.08/sh | -$64 cycle +$0 [-$149…-$67] · 5% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$1,374 NOT cap gain +$4,646 |
| budget: banked $64 debit $64 (100% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$0 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $150/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $384/mo |
| vs 50% target ($550/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($1,100/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $387/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,324 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 123.0% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 47.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-4,820 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $64 | $-4,982 | +$1,038 | +$56 |
| +2.5% | $12.81 (1.1σ) | $-186 | $-4,951 | +$1,069 | -$194 |
| +5% | $13.12 (1.4σ) | $-436 | $-4,920 | +$1,100 | -$444 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (10.3σ) | $-9,400 | $-4,665 | +$1,355 | -$5,944 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.21/sh | +$145 cycle +$243 [+$128…+$154] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$5,252 NOT cap gain +$768 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$47 cycle +$145 [+$14…+$45] · 88% credit | 70% surv 65% | -$4,828 NOT cap gain +$1,192 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.06/sh | +$39 cycle +$137 [-$11…+$30] · 63% credit | 78% surv 76% | -$3,936 NOT cap gain +$2,084 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.01/sh | +$4 cycle +$102 [-$54…-$8] · 20% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$3,521 NOT cap gain +$2,499 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.10/sh | -$67 cycle +$31 [-$147…-$86] | 91% surv 90% | -$2,242 NOT cap gain +$3,778 |
| budget: banked $98 debit $67 (69% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $156/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $588/mo |
| vs 50% target ($550/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($1,100/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $593/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,967 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 114.7% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 43.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-4,218 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $98 | $-5,397 | +$623 | +$91 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-112 | $-5,337 | +$683 | -$119 |
| +5% | $12.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-322 | $-5,277 | +$743 | -$329 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (10.3σ) | $-8,533 | $-4,230 | +$1,790 | -$5,509 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$156 cycle +$356 [+$133…+$148] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$5,590 NOT cap gain +$430 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$13 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.14/sh | +$115 cycle +$315 [+$64…+$92] · 97% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$4,659 NOT cap gain +$1,361 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$45 cycle +$245 [-$9…+$24] · 66% credit | 70% surv 65% | -$5,179 NOT cap gain +$841 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.04/sh | +$31 cycle +$231 [-$52…+$1] · 27% credit | 79% surv 77% | -$4,293 NOT cap gain +$1,727 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.10/sh | -$77 cycle +$123 [-$219…-$122] | 90% surv 90% | -$2,151 NOT cap gain +$3,869 |
| budget: banked $200 debit $77 (38% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$123 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $105/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($550/mo) | +118% |
| vs normal income ($1,100/mo) | 109% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,203/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,988 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 138.3% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 52.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.4 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-4,820 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.76 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.76 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $200 | $-5,746 | +$274 | +$192 |
| +2.5% | $11.79 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-30 | $-5,717 | +$303 | -$38 |
| +5% | $12.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-260 | $-5,689 | +$332 | -$268 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (10.3σ) | $-10,064 | $-5,329 | +$691 | -$6,608 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$235 cycle +$285 [+$231…+$285] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$4,313 NOT cap gain +$1,707 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.04/sh | +$40 cycle +$90 [-$5…+$78] · 72% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$2,636 NOT cap gain +$3,384 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$10 cycle +$60 [-$28…+$40] · 53% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$3,566 NOT cap gain +$2,454 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($550/mo) | -45% |
| vs normal income ($1,100/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,185 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 142.8% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 54.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.6 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-6,025 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.3σ) | $50 | $-4,548 | +$1,472 | +$40 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.5σ) | $-275 | $-4,581 | +$1,440 | -$285 |
| +5% | $13.65 (1.8σ) | $-600 | $-4,613 | +$1,407 | -$610 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (10.3σ) | $-11,280 | $-5,681 | +$339 | -$6,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,543 cycle +$5,743 [+$4,498…+$6,521] · 100% credit | 64% surv 54% | +$56,183 SAFE cap gain +$61,183 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,225 cycle +$2,425 [+$659…+$2,991] · 91% credit | 68% surv 62% | +$63,305 SAFE cap gain +$68,305 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,225 cycle +$2,425 [+$659…+$2,991] · 91% credit | 68% surv 62% | +$63,305 SAFE cap gain +$68,305 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 13d left | -$0.04/sh | -$895 cycle +$305 [-$1,702…+$612] · 36% credit | 72% surv 67% | +$70,185 SAFE cap gain +$75,185 |
| budget: banked $1,200 debit $895 (75% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $22,828/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,000/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($22,000/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-5,100 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 7d left | 3-6d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (1.6σ) | $1,200 | $51,640 | +$56,640 | +$1,000 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.8σ) | $-6,050 | $50,915 | +$55,915 | -$6,250 |
| +5% | $15.23 (2.0σ) | $-13,300 | $50,190 | +$55,190 | -$13,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (15.0σ) | $-519,800 | $-460 | +$4,540 | -$109,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (152 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.22/sh | +$3,357 cycle +$4,573 [+$3,148…+$3,794] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | +$19,061 SAFE cap gain +$24,061 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,210 cycle +$2,426 [+$623…+$1,355] · 93% credit | 69% surv 64% | +$27,354 SAFE cap gain +$32,354 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.07/sh | +$1,126 cycle +$2,342 [+$238…+$1,265] · 81% credit | 78% surv 75% | +$45,270 SAFE cap gain +$50,270 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.02/sh | +$331 cycle +$1,547 [-$747…+$406] · 40% credit | 81% surv 79% | +$53,475 SAFE cap gain +$58,475 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.08/sh | -$1,214 cycle +$2 [-$2,903…-$1,294] · 3% credit | 88% surv 87% | +$87,930 SAFE cap gain +$92,930 |
| budget: banked $1,216 debit $1,214 (100% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 152 ct earn ≈ $2,841/mo while parked; 48 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,296/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,000/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($22,000/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,372/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,760 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 170.5% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 170.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (152 ct) | $-3,876 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,216 | $15,704 | +$20,704 | +$1,064 |
| +2.5% | $12.81 (1.1σ) | $-3,534 | $16,579 | +$21,579 | -$3,686 |
| +5% | $13.12 (1.4σ) | $-8,284 | $17,454 | +$22,454 | -$8,436 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (23.3σ) | $-425,144 | $-4,396 | +$604 | -$112,936 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (131 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.21/sh | +$2,718 cycle +$4,552 [+$2,395…+$2,870] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | +$10,061 SAFE cap gain +$15,061 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$886 cycle +$2,720 [+$236…+$812] · 86% credit | 70% surv 65% | +$18,669 SAFE cap gain +$23,669 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.06/sh | +$730 cycle +$2,564 [-$251…+$555] · 62% credit | 78% surv 76% | +$36,513 SAFE cap gain +$41,513 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.01/sh | +$67 cycle +$1,901 [-$1,083…-$157] · 20% credit | 82% surv 80% | +$44,850 SAFE cap gain +$49,850 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.10/sh | -$1,260 cycle +$574 [-$2,825…-$1,588] | 91% surv 90% | +$70,523 SAFE cap gain +$75,523 |
| budget: banked $1,834 debit $1,260 (69% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$574 cash · rolled 131 ct earn ≈ $2,922/mo while parked; 69 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,004/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,000/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($22,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,113/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,932 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 199.4% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 199.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (131 ct) | $-3,341 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,834 | $7,343 | +$12,343 | +$1,703 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,096 | $8,813 | +$13,813 | -$2,227 |
| +5% | $12.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-6,026 | $10,283 | +$15,283 | -$6,157 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (23.3σ) | $-372,171 | $5,443 | +$10,443 | -$103,097 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (147 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$2,858 cycle +$6,533 [+$2,441…+$2,723] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | +$3,026 SAFE cap gain +$8,026 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$13 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.14/sh | +$2,104 cycle +$5,779 [+$1,145…+$1,687] · 98% credit | 75% surv 71% | +$21,712 SAFE cap gain +$26,712 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$824 cycle +$4,499 [-$182…+$440] · 65% credit | 70% surv 65% | +$11,432 SAFE cap gain +$16,432 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.04/sh | +$566 cycle +$4,241 [-$993…+$22] · 27% credit | 79% surv 77% | +$29,174 SAFE cap gain +$34,174 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.10/sh | -$1,414 cycle +$2,261 [-$4,083…-$2,253] | 90% surv 90% | +$72,194 SAFE cap gain +$77,194 |
| budget: banked $3,675 debit $1,414 (38% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,261 cash · rolled 147 ct earn ≈ $1,932/mo while parked; 53 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $22,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,000/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($22,000/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $22,134/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,343 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 275.8% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 275.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (147 ct) | $-3,749 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.76 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.76 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,675 | $168 | +$5,168 | +$3,528 |
| +2.5% | $11.79 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-551 | $1,117 | +$6,117 | -$698 |
| +5% | $12.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-4,778 | $2,066 | +$7,066 | -$4,925 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (23.3σ) | $-423,360 | $-12,882 | -$7,882 | -$121,422 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,693 cycle +$5,693 [+$4,491…+$5,682] · 100% credit | 62% surv 53% | +$29,133 SAFE cap gain +$34,133 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.04/sh | +$795 cycle +$1,795 [-$382…+$1,407] · 67% credit | 81% surv 78% | +$62,675 SAFE cap gain +$67,675 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$192 cycle +$1,192 [-$776…+$681] · 48% credit | 75% surv 71% | +$44,072 SAFE cap gain +$49,072 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,000/mo) | -45% |
| vs normal income ($22,000/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,284 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 138.9% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 138.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-5,100 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.3σ) | $1,000 | $24,440 | +$29,440 | +$800 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.5σ) | $-5,500 | $23,790 | +$28,790 | -$5,700 |
| +5% | $13.65 (1.8σ) | $-12,000 | $23,140 | +$28,140 | -$12,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (23.3σ) | $-550,000 | $-30,660 | -$25,660 | -$139,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$107 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.95/sh | +$2,947 cycle +$3,707 [+$2,662…+$3,636] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,618 NOT cap gain +$14,642 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$122 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.82/sh | +$823 cycle +$1,583 [-$136…+$1,468] · 72% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$5,107 NOT cap gain +$26,153 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$113 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.28/sh | +$284 cycle +$1,044 [-$496…+$767] · 54% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$13,746 NOT cap gain +$17,514 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$127 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.18/sh | -$184 cycle +$576 [-$1,327…+$400] · 33% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$1,614 NOT cap gain +$29,646 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $184 (24% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$576 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,392/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,560/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -40% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 30% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,560/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,240 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 79.7% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 79.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,305 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $105.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $106-107.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $107.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $107.00 (1.3σ) | $760 | $-19,565 | +$11,695 | +$740 |
| +2.5% | $109.67 (1.6σ) | $-1,915 | $-19,832 | +$11,428 | -$1,935 |
| +5% | $112.35 (1.8σ) | $-4,590 | $-20,100 | +$11,160 | -$4,610 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-125,240 | $-32,165 | -$905 | -$117,260 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$106 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.90/sh | +$2,905 cycle +$3,815 [+$2,589…+$3,587] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$17,410 NOT cap gain +$13,850 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$121 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.75/sh | +$755 cycle +$1,665 [-$205…+$1,385] · 68% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$5,925 NOT cap gain +$25,335 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$112 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.25/sh | +$250 cycle +$1,160 [-$552…+$691] · 50% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$14,530 NOT cap gain +$16,730 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$131 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.82/sh | -$819 cycle +$91 [-$2,083…-$312] · 19% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$1,501 SAFE cap gain +$32,761 |
| budget: banked $910 debit $819 (90% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,526/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,460/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -28% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,460/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,090 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 81.3% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 81.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $104.94 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $105-106.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $106.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $106.00 (1.2σ) | $910 | $-20,315 | +$10,945 | +$890 |
| +2.5% | $108.65 (1.5σ) | $-1,740 | $-20,580 | +$10,680 | -$1,760 |
| +5% | $111.30 (1.7σ) | $-4,390 | $-20,845 | +$10,415 | -$4,410 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-126,090 | $-33,015 | -$1,755 | -$118,110 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$102 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.74/sh | +$2,464 cycle +$3,859 [+$2,028…+$2,694] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$20,964 NOT cap gain +$10,296 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$115 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.85/sh | +$767 cycle +$2,162 [-$277…+$889] · 64% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$10,826 NOT cap gain +$20,434 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$117 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.49/sh | +$443 cycle +$1,838 [-$640…+$549] · 46% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$9,350 NOT cap gain +$21,910 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$108 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.12/sh | +$105 cycle +$1,500 [-$739…+$163] · 33% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$17,788 NOT cap gain +$13,472 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$127 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.01/sh | -$912 cycle +$483 [-$2,243…-$891] · 5% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$1,705 NOT cap gain +$29,555 |
| budget: banked $1,395 debit $912 (65% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$483 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $2,703/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,370/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,375/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,805 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 78.9% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 78.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-28,224 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $100.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $101-103.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $103.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $102.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,395 | $-23,428 | +$7,832 | +$1,377 |
| +2.5% | $104.55 (1.0σ) | $-900 | $-23,428 | +$7,832 | -$918 |
| +5% | $107.10 (1.3σ) | $-3,195 | $-23,428 | +$7,832 | -$3,213 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-116,505 | $-24,228 | +$7,032 | -$109,323 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.57/sh | +$2,575 cycle +$5,385 [+$1,924…+$2,520] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$23,040 NOT cap gain +$8,220 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$109 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.20/sh | +$1,201 cycle +$4,011 [-$223…+$914] · 67% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$14,379 NOT cap gain +$16,881 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$103 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.56/sh | +$559 cycle +$3,369 [-$467…+$332] · 48% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$20,421 NOT cap gain +$10,839 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$113 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.25/sh | +$247 cycle +$3,057 [-$1,372…-$102] · 21% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$11,733 NOT cap gain +$19,527 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$123 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$2.00/sh | -$1,995 cycle +$815 [-$4,156…-$2,539] | 92% surv 91% | -$4,975 NOT cap gain +$26,285 |
| budget: banked $2,810 debit $1,995 (71% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$815 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,256/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | +121% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,860/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,190 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 92.8% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 92.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,320 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $97-100.87 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $100.87 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,810 | $-25,615 | +$5,645 | +$2,790 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (≤1σ, normal week) | $360 | $-25,860 | +$5,400 | +$340 |
| +5% | $102.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,090 | $-26,105 | +$5,155 | -$2,110 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-132,190 | $-39,115 | -$7,855 | -$124,210 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$128 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.90/sh | +$3,904 cycle +$3,964 | 68% surv 53% | +$2,539 SAFE cap gain +$33,799 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$137 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.32/sh | +$322 cycle +$382 | 76% surv 69% | +$7,192 SAFE cap gain +$38,452 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$153 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.69/sh | +$694 cycle +$754 | 83% surv 79% | +$21,964 SAFE cap gain +$53,224 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $360/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $360/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,940 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 41.4% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 41.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,280 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $126.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $127-128.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $128.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $128.00 (3.5σ) | $60 | $-1,365 | +$29,895 | +$40 |
| +2.5% | $131.20 (3.8σ) | $-3,140 | $-1,685 | +$29,575 | -$3,160 |
| +5% | $134.40 (4.2σ) | $-6,340 | $-2,005 | +$29,255 | -$6,360 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-104,940 | $-11,865 | +$19,395 | -$96,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$123 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.67/sh | +$3,665 cycle +$3,735 | 68% surv 53% | -$2,190 NOT cap gain +$29,070 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$132 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.11/sh | +$114 cycle +$184 | 77% surv 70% | +$2,494 SAFE cap gain +$33,754 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$148 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$288 cycle +$358 | 84% surv 80% | +$17,068 SAFE cap gain +$48,328 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $420/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $420/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,930 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 50.8% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 50.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,365 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $121.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $122-123.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $123.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $123.00 (3.0σ) | $70 | $-5,855 | +$25,405 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $126.07 (3.3σ) | $-3,005 | $-6,162 | +$25,098 | -$3,025 |
| +5% | $129.15 (3.6σ) | $-6,080 | $-6,470 | +$24,790 | -$6,100 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-109,930 | $-16,855 | +$14,405 | -$101,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$122 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.62/sh | +$3,618 cycle +$3,728 | 68% surv 53% | -$3,097 NOT cap gain +$28,163 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$131 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$73 cycle +$183 | 77% surv 70% | +$1,593 SAFE cap gain +$32,853 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$147 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.21/sh | +$211 cycle +$321 | 84% surv 81% | +$16,131 SAFE cap gain +$47,391 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $660/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $660/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,890 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 52.6% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 52.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,355 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $120.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $121-122.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $122.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $122.00 (2.9σ) | $110 | $-6,715 | +$24,545 | +$90 |
| +2.5% | $125.05 (3.2σ) | $-2,940 | $-7,020 | +$24,240 | -$2,960 |
| +5% | $128.10 (3.5σ) | $-5,990 | $-7,325 | +$23,935 | -$6,010 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-110,890 | $-17,815 | +$13,445 | -$102,910 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$121 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.57/sh | +$3,572 cycle +$3,702 | 68% surv 53% | -$4,023 NOT cap gain +$27,237 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$130 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$34 cycle +$164 | 77% surv 70% | +$674 SAFE cap gain +$31,934 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$146 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.14/sh | +$136 cycle +$266 | 84% surv 81% | +$15,176 SAFE cap gain +$46,436 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $780/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $780/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,870 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 54.5% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 54.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,340 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $119.79 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $120-121.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $121.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $121.00 (2.8σ) | $130 | $-7,595 | +$23,665 | +$110 |
| +2.5% | $124.02 (3.1σ) | $-2,895 | $-7,897 | +$23,363 | -$2,915 |
| +5% | $127.05 (3.4σ) | $-5,920 | $-8,200 | +$23,060 | -$5,940 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-111,870 | $-18,795 | +$12,465 | -$103,890 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$120 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.53/sh | +$3,525 cycle +$3,675 | 68% surv 53% | -$4,950 NOT cap gain +$26,310 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$128 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$166 cycle +$316 | 76% surv 69% | -$974 NOT cap gain +$30,286 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$145 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$62 cycle +$212 | 84% surv 81% | +$14,222 SAFE cap gain +$45,482 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $900/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,850 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 56.3% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 56.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,270 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $118.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $119-120.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $120.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $120.00 (2.7σ) | $150 | $-8,475 | +$22,785 | +$130 |
| +2.5% | $123.00 (3.0σ) | $-2,850 | $-8,775 | +$22,485 | -$2,870 |
| +5% | $126.00 (3.3σ) | $-5,850 | $-9,075 | +$22,185 | -$5,870 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-112,850 | $-19,775 | +$11,485 | -$104,870 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$119 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.48/sh | +$3,479 cycle +$3,579 | 68% surv 53% | -$5,946 NOT cap gain +$25,314 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$127 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.13/sh | +$129 cycle +$229 | 76% surv 69% | -$1,961 NOT cap gain +$29,299 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$139 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.59/sh | +$592 cycle +$692 | 81% surv 77% | +$9,302 SAFE cap gain +$40,562 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$144 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.01/sh | -$11 cycle +$89 | 84% surv 81% | +$13,199 SAFE cap gain +$44,459 |
| budget: banked $100 debit $11 (11% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$89 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,505/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $600/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,900 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 58.3% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 58.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,315 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $117.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $118-119.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $119.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $119.00 (2.6σ) | $100 | $-9,425 | +$21,835 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $121.97 (2.9σ) | $-2,875 | $-9,722 | +$21,538 | -$2,895 |
| +5% | $124.95 (3.2σ) | $-5,850 | $-10,020 | +$21,240 | -$5,870 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-113,900 | $-20,825 | +$10,435 | -$105,920 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$118 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.43/sh | +$3,433 cycle +$3,613 | 68% surv 53% | -$6,812 NOT cap gain +$24,448 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$126 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.09/sh | +$92 cycle +$272 | 76% surv 69% | -$2,818 NOT cap gain +$28,442 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$138 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.52/sh | +$521 cycle +$701 | 81% surv 78% | +$8,411 SAFE cap gain +$39,671 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$143 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.08/sh | -$82 cycle +$98 | 85% surv 82% | +$12,308 SAFE cap gain +$43,568 |
| budget: banked $180 debit $82 (46% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$98 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,338/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,080/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,080/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,820 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 60.0% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 60.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,280 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $116.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $117-118.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $118.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $118.00 (2.4σ) | $180 | $-10,245 | +$21,015 | +$160 |
| +2.5% | $120.95 (2.8σ) | $-2,770 | $-10,540 | +$20,720 | -$2,790 |
| +5% | $123.90 (3.1σ) | $-5,720 | $-10,835 | +$20,425 | -$5,740 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-114,820 | $-21,745 | +$9,515 | -$106,840 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$117 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.39/sh | +$3,387 cycle +$3,497 | 68% surv 53% | -$7,828 NOT cap gain +$23,432 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$125 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$55 cycle +$165 | 76% surv 69% | -$3,825 NOT cap gain +$27,435 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$137 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.45/sh | +$451 cycle +$561 | 82% surv 78% | +$7,371 SAFE cap gain +$38,631 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $660/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $660/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,890 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 62.1% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 62.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,380 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $115.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $116-117.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $117.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $117.00 (2.3σ) | $110 | $-11,215 | +$20,045 | +$90 |
| +2.5% | $119.92 (2.6σ) | $-2,815 | $-11,507 | +$19,753 | -$2,835 |
| +5% | $122.85 (3.0σ) | $-5,740 | $-11,800 | +$19,460 | -$5,760 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-115,890 | $-22,815 | +$8,445 | -$107,910 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$116 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.34/sh | +$3,342 cycle +$3,502 [+$3,644…+$4,412] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$8,723 NOT cap gain +$22,537 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$136 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.38/sh | +$382 cycle +$542 [+$18…+$1,571] · 77% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$6,452 SAFE cap gain +$37,712 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$124 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$19 cycle +$179 [-$360…+$885] · 68% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$4,711 NOT cap gain +$26,549 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $960/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $960/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,840 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 63.8% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 63.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,350 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $114.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $115-116.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $116.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $116.00 (2.2σ) | $160 | $-12,065 | +$19,195 | +$140 |
| +2.5% | $118.90 (2.5σ) | $-2,740 | $-12,355 | +$18,905 | -$2,760 |
| +5% | $121.80 (2.8σ) | $-5,640 | $-12,645 | +$18,615 | -$5,660 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-116,840 | $-23,765 | +$7,495 | -$108,860 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.30/sh | +$3,297 cycle +$3,557 [+$3,524…+$4,350] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$9,568 NOT cap gain +$21,692 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$135 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.31/sh | +$315 cycle +$575 [-$105…+$1,512] · 73% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$5,585 SAFE cap gain +$36,845 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$122 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.25/sh | +$249 cycle +$509 [-$157…+$1,178] · 70% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$6,181 NOT cap gain +$25,079 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,560/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -80% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,560/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,740 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 65.5% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 65.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,275 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $113.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $114-115.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $115.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $115.00 (2.1σ) | $260 | $-12,865 | +$18,395 | +$240 |
| +2.5% | $117.87 (2.4σ) | $-2,615 | $-13,152 | +$18,108 | -$2,635 |
| +5% | $120.75 (2.7σ) | $-5,490 | $-13,440 | +$17,820 | -$5,510 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-117,740 | $-24,665 | +$6,595 | -$109,760 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$114 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.25/sh | +$3,252 cycle +$3,532 [+$3,367…+$4,154] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$10,493 NOT cap gain +$20,767 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$121 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.21/sh | +$213 cycle +$493 [-$73…+$966] · 72% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$7,097 NOT cap gain +$24,163 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$134 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.25/sh | +$248 cycle +$528 [-$126…+$1,216] · 72% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$4,638 SAFE cap gain +$35,898 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,680/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,680/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,720 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 67.4% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 67.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,320 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $112.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $113-114.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $114.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $114.00 (2.0σ) | $280 | $-13,745 | +$17,515 | +$260 |
| +2.5% | $116.85 (2.3σ) | $-2,570 | $-14,030 | +$17,230 | -$2,590 |
| +5% | $119.70 (2.6σ) | $-5,420 | $-14,315 | +$16,945 | -$5,440 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-118,720 | $-25,645 | +$5,615 | -$110,740 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$113 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.21/sh | +$3,208 cycle +$3,518 [+$3,218…+$4,089] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$11,407 NOT cap gain +$19,853 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$120 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$178 cycle +$488 [-$374…+$998] · 64% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$8,002 NOT cap gain +$23,258 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$133 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$183 cycle +$493 [-$560…+$1,236] · 64% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$3,703 SAFE cap gain +$34,963 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,860/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$36,690 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 69.2% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 69.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,335 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $111.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $112-113.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $113.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $113.00 (1.9σ) | $310 | $-14,615 | +$16,645 | +$290 |
| +2.5% | $115.82 (2.2σ) | $-2,515 | $-14,897 | +$16,363 | -$2,535 |
| +5% | $118.65 (2.5σ) | $-5,340 | $-15,180 | +$16,080 | -$5,360 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-119,690 | $-26,615 | +$4,645 | -$111,710 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$112 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.16/sh | +$3,164 cycle +$3,554 [+$3,231…+$4,151] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$12,271 NOT cap gain +$18,989 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$119 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$142 cycle +$532 [-$327…+$951] · 63% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$8,858 NOT cap gain +$22,402 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$132 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.12/sh | +$119 cycle +$509 [-$468…+$1,233] · 63% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$2,819 SAFE cap gain +$34,079 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,340/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -69% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,340/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,610 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 71.0% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 71.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,305 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $110.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $111-112.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $112.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $112.00 (1.8σ) | $390 | $-15,435 | +$15,825 | +$370 |
| +2.5% | $114.80 (2.1σ) | $-2,410 | $-15,715 | +$15,545 | -$2,430 |
| +5% | $117.60 (2.4σ) | $-5,210 | $-15,995 | +$15,265 | -$5,230 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-120,610 | $-27,535 | +$3,725 | -$112,630 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$111 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.12/sh | +$3,120 cycle +$3,550 [+$3,005…+$3,895] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$13,175 NOT cap gain +$18,085 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$126 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.11/sh | +$1,107 cycle +$1,537 [+$574…+$1,851] · 84% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$1,553 NOT cap gain +$29,707 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$118 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.11/sh | +$108 cycle +$538 [-$432…+$602] · 56% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$9,752 NOT cap gain +$21,508 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$131 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$56 cycle +$486 [-$647…+$717] · 55% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$1,896 SAFE cap gain +$33,156 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,580/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -66% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,580/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,570 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 72.8% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 72.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,295 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $109.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $110-111.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $111.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $111.00 (1.7σ) | $430 | $-16,295 | +$14,965 | +$410 |
| +2.5% | $113.77 (2.0σ) | $-2,345 | $-16,572 | +$14,688 | -$2,365 |
| +5% | $116.55 (2.3σ) | $-5,120 | $-16,850 | +$14,410 | -$5,140 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-121,570 | $-28,495 | +$2,765 | -$113,590 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$110 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.08/sh | +$3,076 cycle +$3,596 [+$2,892…+$3,916] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$14,029 NOT cap gain +$17,231 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$125 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.03/sh | +$1,035 cycle +$1,555 [+$360…+$2,038] · 84% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$2,435 NOT cap gain +$28,825 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$117 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$73 cycle +$593 [-$584…+$808] · 51% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$10,597 NOT cap gain +$20,663 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$130 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.01/sh | -$6 cycle +$514 [-$843…+$981] · 48% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$1,024 SAFE cap gain +$32,284 |
| budget: banked $520 debit $6 (1% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$514 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,831/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,120/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,480 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 74.5% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 74.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,285 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $108.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $109-110.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $110.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $110.00 (1.6σ) | $520 | $-17,105 | +$14,155 | +$500 |
| +2.5% | $112.75 (1.9σ) | $-2,230 | $-17,380 | +$13,880 | -$2,250 |
| +5% | $115.50 (2.2σ) | $-4,980 | $-17,655 | +$13,605 | -$5,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-122,480 | $-29,405 | +$1,855 | -$114,500 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$109 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.03/sh | +$3,033 cycle +$3,583 [+$2,840…+$3,807] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$14,942 NOT cap gain +$16,318 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$124 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.96/sh | +$963 cycle +$1,513 [+$265…+$1,809] · 80% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$3,377 NOT cap gain +$27,883 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$116 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.04/sh | +$39 cycle +$589 [-$647…+$620] · 48% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$11,501 NOT cap gain +$19,759 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$129 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.07/sh | -$66 cycle +$484 [-$917…+$723] · 45% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$94 SAFE cap gain +$31,354 |
| budget: banked $550 debit $66 (12% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$484 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,682/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -57% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,450 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 76.3% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 76.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,345 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $107.91 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $108-109.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $109.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $109.00 (1.5σ) | $550 | $-17,975 | +$13,285 | +$530 |
| +2.5% | $111.72 (1.8σ) | $-2,175 | $-18,247 | +$13,013 | -$2,195 |
| +5% | $114.45 (2.1σ) | $-4,900 | $-18,520 | +$12,740 | -$4,920 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-123,450 | $-30,375 | +$885 | -$115,470 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$108 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.99/sh | +$2,990 cycle +$3,640 [+$2,683…+$3,714] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$15,785 NOT cap gain +$15,475 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$123 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.89/sh | +$893 cycle +$1,543 [-$51…+$1,620] · 74% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$4,247 NOT cap gain +$27,013 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$115 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$6 cycle +$656 [-$926…+$506] · 42% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$12,334 NOT cap gain +$18,926 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$128 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.13/sh | -$126 cycle +$524 [-$1,201…+$532] · 39% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$766 NOT cap gain +$30,494 |
| budget: banked $650 debit $126 (19% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$524 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,536/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -49% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,900/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,350 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 78.0% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 78.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,310 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $106.92 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $107-108.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $108.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $108.00 (1.4σ) | $650 | $-18,775 | +$12,485 | +$630 |
| +2.5% | $110.70 (1.7σ) | $-2,050 | $-19,045 | +$12,215 | -$2,070 |
| +5% | $113.40 (2.0σ) | $-4,750 | $-19,315 | +$11,945 | -$4,770 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-124,350 | $-31,275 | -$15 | -$116,370 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$105 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.86/sh | +$2,862 cycle +$3,912 [+$2,496…+$3,350] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$18,213 NOT cap gain +$13,047 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$119 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.84/sh | +$841 cycle +$1,891 [-$164…+$1,082] · 67% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$7,499 NOT cap gain +$23,761 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$120 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.69/sh | +$687 cycle +$1,737 [-$353…+$926] · 60% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$6,753 NOT cap gain +$24,507 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$111 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.22/sh | +$216 cycle +$1,266 [-$641…+$375] · 43% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$15,324 NOT cap gain +$15,936 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$130 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.87/sh | -$870 cycle +$180 [-$2,224…-$680] · 13% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$690 SAFE cap gain +$31,950 |
| budget: banked $1,050 debit $870 (83% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$180 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,392/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -17% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 41% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,950 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 82.9% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 82.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,295 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $103.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $104-106.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $106.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $105.00 (1.1σ) | $1,050 | $-21,075 | +$10,185 | +$1,030 |
| +2.5% | $107.62 (1.3σ) | $-1,575 | $-21,337 | +$9,923 | -$1,595 |
| +5% | $110.25 (1.6σ) | $-4,200 | $-21,600 | +$9,660 | -$4,220 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-126,950 | $-33,875 | -$2,615 | -$118,970 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$104 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.82/sh | +$2,820 cycle +$3,940 [+$2,394…+$3,295] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$19,085 NOT cap gain +$12,175 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$118 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.77/sh | +$775 cycle +$1,895 [-$378…+$1,043] · 65% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$8,395 NOT cap gain +$22,865 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$119 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.62/sh | +$621 cycle +$1,741 [-$557…+$886] · 58% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$7,649 NOT cap gain +$23,611 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$110 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$182 cycle +$1,302 [-$746…+$328] · 41% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$16,188 NOT cap gain +$15,072 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$129 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.92/sh | -$919 cycle +$201 [-$2,387…-$751] · 9% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$189 NOT cap gain +$31,071 |
| budget: banked $1,120 debit $919 (82% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$201 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,260/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,720/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -12% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 44% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,720/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,880 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 84.7% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 84.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,350 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $102.96 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $103-105.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $105.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $104.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,120 | $-21,905 | +$9,355 | +$1,100 |
| +2.5% | $106.60 (1.2σ) | $-1,480 | $-22,165 | +$9,095 | -$1,500 |
| +5% | $109.20 (1.5σ) | $-4,080 | $-22,425 | +$8,835 | -$4,100 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-127,880 | $-34,805 | -$3,545 | -$119,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$103 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.78/sh | +$2,779 cycle +$4,049 [+$2,317…+$3,283] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$19,876 NOT cap gain +$11,384 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$117 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.71/sh | +$709 cycle +$1,979 [-$380…+$978] · 60% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$9,211 NOT cap gain +$22,049 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$118 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.56/sh | +$556 cycle +$1,826 [-$553…+$816] · 54% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$8,464 NOT cap gain +$22,796 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$109 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$149 cycle +$1,419 [-$735…+$328] · 38% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$16,971 NOT cap gain +$14,289 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$128 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.97/sh | -$967 cycle +$303 [-$2,356…-$783] · 9% credit | 87% surv 86% | -$987 NOT cap gain +$30,273 |
| budget: banked $1,270 debit $967 (76% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$303 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,130/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | -0% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,620/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,730 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 86.3% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 86.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-31,405 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $101.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $102-104.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $104.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $103.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,270 | $-22,655 | +$8,605 | +$1,250 |
| +2.5% | $105.57 (1.1σ) | $-1,305 | $-22,912 | +$8,348 | -$1,325 |
| +5% | $108.15 (1.4σ) | $-3,880 | $-23,170 | +$8,090 | -$3,900 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-128,730 | $-35,655 | -$4,395 | -$120,750 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$101 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.70/sh | +$2,157 cycle +$3,597 [+$1,746…+$2,291] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$22,124 NOT cap gain +$9,136 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$113 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.10/sh | +$881 cycle +$2,321 [-$56…+$913] · 72% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$12,465 NOT cap gain +$18,795 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$116 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.43/sh | +$343 cycle +$1,783 [-$687…+$336] · 38% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$10,303 NOT cap gain +$20,957 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$107 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.08/sh | +$68 cycle +$1,508 [-$724…+$34] · 26% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$18,678 NOT cap gain +$12,582 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$126 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.06/sh | -$846 cycle +$594 [-$2,099…-$964] · 4% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$2,492 NOT cap gain +$28,768 |
| budget: banked $1,440 debit $846 (59% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$594 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $2,303/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,640/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,650/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,760 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 71.2% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 71.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-25,084 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.99 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $100-102.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $102.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $101.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,440 | $-24,281 | +$6,979 | +$1,424 |
| +2.5% | $103.52 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-580 | $-24,028 | +$7,232 | -$596 |
| +5% | $106.05 (1.2σ) | $-2,600 | $-23,776 | +$7,484 | -$2,616 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-104,160 | $-12,681 | +$18,579 | -$97,776 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$100 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.66/sh | +$1,593 cycle +$2,895 [+$1,246…+$1,674] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$23,722 NOT cap gain +$7,538 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$112 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.03/sh | +$620 cycle +$1,922 [-$178…+$583] · 64% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$13,760 NOT cap gain +$17,500 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$115 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.37/sh | +$220 cycle +$1,522 [-$660…+$155] · 32% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$11,460 NOT cap gain +$19,800 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$106 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$32 cycle +$1,334 [-$650…-$51] · 23% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$19,748 NOT cap gain +$11,512 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$125 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$1.97/sh | -$1,183 cycle +$119 [-$2,387…-$1,382] | 91% surv 90% | -$3,863 NOT cap gain +$27,397 |
| budget: banked $1,302 debit $1,183 (91% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$119 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,502/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,812/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,832/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,698 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 54.1% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 54.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-18,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $99-102.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $102.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $100.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,302 | $-25,315 | +$5,945 | +$1,290 |
| +2.5% | $102.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-198 | $-24,565 | +$6,695 | -$210 |
| +5% | $105.00 (1.1σ) | $-1,698 | $-23,815 | +$7,445 | -$1,710 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-78,498 | $11,385 | +$42,645 | -$73,710 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$99 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.61/sh | +$1,569 cycle +$3,027 [+$1,206…+$1,592] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$24,490 NOT cap gain +$6,770 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$111 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.97/sh | +$580 cycle +$2,038 [-$248…+$417] · 60% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$14,544 NOT cap gain +$16,716 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$114 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.31/sh | +$184 cycle +$1,642 [-$724…+$0] · 25% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$12,240 NOT cap gain +$19,020 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$105 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$13 cycle +$1,471 [-$678…-$141] · 18% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$20,511 NOT cap gain +$10,749 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$124 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$1.98/sh | -$1,190 cycle +$268 [-$2,409…-$1,497] | 91% surv 91% | -$4,614 NOT cap gain +$26,646 |
| budget: banked $1,458 debit $1,190 (82% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$268 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,427/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,748/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | +15% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,768/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,142 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 55.0% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 55.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-18,852 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $98.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $98-101.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $101.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $99.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,458 | $-26,059 | +$5,201 | +$1,446 |
| +2.5% | $101.47 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-27 | $-25,316 | +$5,944 | -$39 |
| +5% | $103.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,512 | $-24,574 | +$6,686 | -$1,524 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-78,942 | $10,941 | +$42,201 | -$74,154 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$2.59/sh | +$1,557 cycle +$3,051 [+$1,161…+$1,545] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$24,916 NOT cap gain +$6,344 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$110 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.24/sh | +$742 cycle +$2,236 [-$130…+$571] · 70% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$15,696 NOT cap gain +$15,564 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$114 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.28/sh | +$166 cycle +$1,660 [-$833…-$39] · 22% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$12,672 NOT cap gain +$18,588 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$105 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$1,497 [-$760…-$158] · 15% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$20,935 NOT cap gain +$10,325 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$124 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$1.99/sh | -$1,194 cycle +$300 [-$2,522…-$1,498] | 92% surv 91% | -$5,032 NOT cap gain +$26,228 |
| budget: banked $1,494 debit $1,194 (80% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$300 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,390/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,964/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,625/mo) | +18% |
| vs normal income ($15,250/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,984/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,406 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 55.5% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 55.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-18,849 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $98-101.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $101.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,494 | $-26,473 | +$4,787 | +$1,482 |
| +2.5% | $100.96 (≤1σ, normal week) | $17 | $-25,734 | +$5,526 | +$5 |
| +5% | $103.43 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,461 | $-24,995 | +$6,265 | -$1,473 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (14.6σ) | $-79,206 | $10,677 | +$41,937 | -$74,418 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $664.54 | $653.94 | $55.05 | $20.51 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸ |
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $34.54/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $20.51 is live theta (~$6,153). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs. | ||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $368.41 | $378.34 | $1.03 | $1.03 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.59 OTM. The $1.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,292 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $378.34 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , GLD is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers GLD. | ||||||||
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50x $37.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $36.35 | $37.62 | $0.29 | $0.29 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.15 OTM. The $0.29 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$362 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $37.62 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $96.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $92.80 | $97.00 | $0.90 | $0.90 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.70 OTM. The $0.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$543 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $97.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $171.78 | $181.61 | $3.06 | $3.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.22 OTM. The $3.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$778 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $181.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $207.40 | $219.51 | $1.50 | $1.50 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.10 OTM. The $1.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$978 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $219.51 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MARA-LC20-1782 | Joint:1782 | 40x $12C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $11.42 | $12.14 | $0.38 | $0.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.58 OTM. The $0.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$341 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $12.14 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 50x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $15.69 | $16.67 | $0.33 | $0.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.81 OTM. The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$612 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $16.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 100x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $15.69 | $16.67 | $0.33 | $0.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.81 OTM. The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,224 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $16.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $160.49 | $172.10 | $3.28 | $3.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.51 OTM. The $3.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,640 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $172.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25x $14C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $13.03 | $14.21 | $0.37 | $0.37 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.97 OTM. The $0.37 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$406 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $14.21 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $89.70 | $97.96 | $1.18 | $1.18 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.30 OTM. The $1.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$456 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $97.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $41.57 | $45.56 | $0.83 | $0.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.43 OTM. The $0.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$506 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $45.56 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $432.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $396.34 | $438.65 | $6.42 | $6.42 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 36.16 OTM. The $6.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,831 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $438.65 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $434.48 | $486.90 | $4.82 | $4.82 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 45.52 OTM. The $4.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$685 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $486.90 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $94.85 | $106.34 | $1.25 | $1.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.15 OTM. The $1.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$517 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $106.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $67.62 | $76.39 | $1.21 | $1.21 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.38 OTM. The $1.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$801 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $76.39 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50x $17.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $15.69 | $17.57 | $0.16 | $0.16 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.81 OTM. The $0.16 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$120 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $17.57 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $312.33 | $355.09 | $6.04 | $6.04 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 37.67 OTM. The $6.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$504 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $355.09 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $11.42 | $13.05 | $0.15 | $0.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.58 OTM. The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$0 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $13.05 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $11.42 | $13.04 | $0.15 | $0.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.58 OTM. The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$0 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $13.04 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $131.11 | $151.58 | $1.13 | $1.13 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.89 OTM. The $1.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$766 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $151.58 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $73.21 | $84.96 | $0.87 | $0.87 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.79 OTM. The $0.87 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $33.62 | $39.60 | $1.14 | $1.14 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.38 OTM. The $1.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,094 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $39.60 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $33.62 | $39.59 | $1.14 | $1.14 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.38 OTM. The $1.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,085 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $39.59 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $160.49 | $188.61 | $0.79 | $0.79 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 27.01 OTM. The $0.79 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,641 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $188.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| RIOT | Joint:1782 | 50x $21.5C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $18.26 | $21.78 | $0.25 | $0.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.24 OTM. The $0.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,150 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $21.78 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $96.98 | $117.62 | $1.89 | $1.89 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.02 OTM. The $1.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$784 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $117.62 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $32.84 | $41.03 | $0.58 | $0.58 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.16 OTM. The $0.58 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,473 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $41.03 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $853.20 | $1,047.99 | $6.20 | $6.20 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 186.80 OTM. The $6.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,588 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,047.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 125x $27C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $21.63 | $27.12 | $0.21 | $0.21 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.37 OTM. The $0.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$875 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $27.12 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $33.62 | $42.67 | $0.54 | $0.54 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.38 OTM. The $0.54 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) | $33.62 | $42.67 | $0.54 | $0.54 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.38 OTM. The $0.54 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $353.81 | $385.01 | $7.87 | $7.87 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.19 OTM. The $7.87 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$22,444 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $385.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $249.89 | $283.10 | $1.98 | $1.98 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 30.11 OTM. The $1.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,048 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $283.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $160.49 | $193.34 | $3.04 | $3.04 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 29.51 OTM. The $3.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$988 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $193.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) | $853.20 | $1,069.99 | $16.46 | $16.46 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 196.80 OTM. The $16.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,069.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER 4d | Neville:0865 | 5 | $353.81 | $375.19 | 6.0% | $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · 84% surv | 33% | $1,025 | $6,150/mo (104%) | $5,938/mo | sell 5x $377.50 CC |
| SPY ↗ | Neville:0865 | 12 | $743.29 | $681.08 | 0.0% | $752 23 Jul 2026 (4d) · 83% surv | 34% | $1,536 | $11,520/mo (52%) | $22,200/mo | sell 12x $752 CC |
| GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER 4d | Joint:1782 | 5 | $353.81 | $337.93 | 0.0% | $375 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · 81% surv | 38% | $1,105 | $6,630/mo (112%) | $5,938/mo | sell 5x $375 CC |
| NOW ↗⚡ER 4d | Main:1299 | 10 | $103.24 | $112.33 | 8.8% | $115 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · 81% surv | 39% | $2,430 | $14,580/mo (80%) | $18,150/mo | sell 10x $115 CC |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Headroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | RetireInc:7291 | 35 | $17.28 | $15.75 | +9.7% |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10 | $256.25 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $44.46 | 50x $18C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $20.74 | 25x $14C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $188C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $432C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $56.15 | 10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 125 | $39.71 | 125x $27C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $70.58 | 50x $38C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $96C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200 | $22.69 | 200x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)] |
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250 | $26.40 | 250x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (12d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| RIOT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $23.65 | 50x $22C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (5d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 71 | 55% | 85% | +29pp |
| 60-70% | 115 | 64% | 88% | +24pp |
| 70-80% | 162 | 77% | 98% | +22pp |
| 80-90% | 199 | 84% | 99% | +15pp |
| 90-100% | 340 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 59 real buyback(s) recorded · 14 roll(s), net +$0.98/sh avg.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.