FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $38,780/mo (50% of normal target)
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | TUNED | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Tuned | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 50 | $16.79 | $20.64 | 50 × $18.50 $400 cyc · $4,000/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 37 × $18.50 $296 cyc · $2,960/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 32 × $18 $448 cyc · $4,480/mo 83% surv · T:23% | 38 × $17.50 $912 cyc · $9,120/mo 72% surv · T:57% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$7,998 (25.6% IC) | 23.0% |
| COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri | 20 | $74.87 | $96.11 | 20 × $80 $200 cyc · $2,000/mo 93% surv · T:14% | 12 × $78 $300 cyc · $3,000/mo 83% surv · T:35% | 🎯 17 × $78 $425 cyc · $4,250/mo 83% surv · T:22% | 16 × $76.50 $880 cyc · $8,800/mo 69% surv · T:62% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $795 | -$30,361 (53.5% IC) | 28.4% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗⚡ER 7d Main:1299 · This Fri | 125 | $23.93 | $35.41 | 125 × $27.50 $1,875 cyc · $18,750/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 106 × $27.50 $1,590 cyc · $15,900/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 120 × $26.50 $2,400 cyc · $24,000/mo 84% surv · T:19% | 98 × $25 $4,802 cyc · $48,020/mo 68% surv · T:66% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $879 | -$104,468 (378.2% IC) | 48.0% |
| MSTR-LC180 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 10d Joint:1782 · This Fri | 10 | $99.10 | $153.44 | 🎯 10 × $111 $450 cyc · $4,500/mo 91% surv · T:31% | 9 × $111 $405 cyc · $4,050/mo 91% surv · T:17% | 5 × $105 $605 cyc · $6,050/mo 77% surv · T:47% | 10 × $105 $1,210 cyc · $12,100/mo 77% surv · T:47% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $373 | -$41,991 (79.2% IC) | 54.8% |
| TOTAL (4) | 205 | following every 🎯 $3,723 cyc · $37,230/mo | $2,925 cyc · $29,250/mo | $2,591 cyc · $25,910/mo | $3,878 cyc · $38,780/mo | $7,804 cyc · $78,040/mo | $2,047 | -$184,817 | |||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.38/sh | +$1,921 cycle +$2,321 [+$1,592…+$2,186] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$11,761 NOT cap gain +$10,039 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.17/sh | +$875 cycle +$1,275 [-$195…+$1,067] · 71% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$2,840 NOT cap gain +$18,960 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$428 cycle +$828 [-$357…+$610] · 63% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$10,037 NOT cap gain +$11,763 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$267 cycle +$667 [-$962…+$440] · 46% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$1,198 NOT cap gain +$20,602 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.04/sh | -$189 cycle +$211 [-$1,542…-$42] · 22% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$596 SAFE cap gain +$22,396 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $189 (47% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$211 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $2,634/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,456/mo) | -10% |
| vs normal income ($8,912/mo) | 45% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,516/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,296 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 32.9% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 14.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-21,825 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.4σ) | $400 | $-13,682 | +$8,118 | +$4,200 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (1.8σ) | $-1,912 | $-13,914 | +$7,886 | +$4,200 |
| +5% | $19.43 (2.2σ) | $-4,225 | $-14,145 | +$7,655 | +$4,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (37 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.38/sh | +$1,422 cycle +$1,718 [+$1,098…+$1,604] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$13,353 NOT cap gain +$8,447 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.17/sh | +$647 cycle +$943 [-$270…+$774] · 67% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$7,039 NOT cap gain +$14,761 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$317 cycle +$613 [-$347…+$436] · 59% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$12,170 NOT cap gain +$9,630 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$197 cycle +$493 [-$848…+$302] · 44% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$5,889 NOT cap gain +$15,911 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.04/sh | -$140 cycle +$156 [-$1,287…-$60] · 21% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$4,627 NOT cap gain +$17,173 |
| budget: banked $296 debit $140 (47% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$156 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $1,949/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,960/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,456/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($8,912/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,362/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,619 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 24.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 10.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (37 ct) | $-16,150 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.4σ) | $296 | $-14,774 | +$7,026 | +$3,108 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (1.8σ) | $-1,415 | $-15,006 | +$6,794 | +$3,108 |
| +5% | $19.43 (2.2σ) | $-3,127 | $-15,237 | +$6,563 | +$3,108 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (32 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.39/sh | +$1,236 cycle +$1,684 [+$986…+$1,378] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$15,116 NOT cap gain +$6,684 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.17/sh | +$557 cycle +$1,005 [-$113…+$626] · 71% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$9,815 NOT cap gain +$11,985 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$284 cycle +$732 [-$204…+$355] · 59% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$14,138 NOT cap gain +$7,662 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$173 cycle +$621 [-$587…+$218] · 37% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$8,849 NOT cap gain +$12,951 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.14/sh | -$436 cycle +$12 [-$1,330…-$424] · 1% credit | 89% surv 88% | -$5,408 NOT cap gain +$16,392 |
| budget: banked $448 debit $436 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 32 ct earn ≈ $1,207/mo while parked; 18 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,456/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($8,912/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,992/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,998 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 25.6% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 11.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (32 ct) | $-13,984 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $448 | $-16,352 | +$5,448 | +$1,280 |
| +2.5% | $18.45 (1.4σ) | $-992 | $-16,577 | +$5,222 | +$1,280 |
| +5% | $18.90 (1.7σ) | $-2,432 | $-16,802 | +$4,997 | +$1,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (38 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.39/sh | +$1,474 cycle +$2,386 [+$1,079…+$1,546] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$15,909 NOT cap gain +$5,891 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.27/sh | +$1,035 cycle +$1,947 [+$124…+$934] · 79% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$10,688 NOT cap gain +$11,112 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$347 cycle +$1,259 [-$377…+$266] · 48% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$14,676 NOT cap gain +$7,124 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$204 cycle +$1,116 [-$928…+$18] · 26% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$8,219 NOT cap gain +$13,581 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$23 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.23/sh | -$877 cycle +$35 [-$2,331…-$1,128] | 92% surv 91% | -$1,050 NOT cap gain +$20,750 |
| budget: banked $912 debit $877 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$35 cash · rolled 38 ct earn ≈ $884/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,456/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($8,912/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,017 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 35.3% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 15.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (38 ct) | $-16,644 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.76 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.76 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $912 | $-17,382 | +$4,418 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-750 | $-17,601 | +$4,199 | +$0 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.3σ) | $-2,413 | $-17,820 | +$3,980 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.39/sh | +$466 cycle +$946 [+$306…+$419] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$17,074 NOT cap gain +$4,726 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.27/sh | +$323 cycle +$803 [-$32…+$241] · 71% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$16,017 NOT cap gain +$5,783 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$112 cycle +$592 [-$170…+$44] · 42% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$16,928 NOT cap gain +$4,872 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$63 cycle +$543 [-$369…-$34] · 17% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$15,577 NOT cap gain +$6,223 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.23/sh | -$271 cycle +$209 [-$824…-$393] | 92% surv 91% | -$14,161 NOT cap gain +$7,639 |
| budget: banked $480 debit $271 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$209 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $268/mo while parked; 38 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,456/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($8,912/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,752/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,887 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 12.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 5.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-5,256 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $480 | $-17,540 | +$4,260 | -$408 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-30 | $-17,753 | +$4,047 | -$408 |
| +5% | $17.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-540 | $-17,966 | +$3,834 | -$408 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.39/sh | +$311 cycle +$815 | 67% surv 52% | -$17,877 NOT cap gain +$3,923 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$8 cycle +$512 | 77% surv 71% | -$17,062 NOT cap gain +$4,738 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.00/sh | +$2 cycle +$506 | 85% surv 82% | -$16,468 NOT cap gain +$5,332 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.16/sh | -$127 cycle +$377 | 90% surv 90% | -$16,147 NOT cap gain +$5,653 |
| budget: banked $504 debit $127 (25% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$377 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $240/mo while parked; 42 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,040/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,456/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($8,912/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,880/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,807 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 9.0% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 3.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-3,504 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-17.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $504 | $-18,188 | +$3,612 | -$88 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (≤1σ, normal week) | $174 | $-17,944 | +$3,856 | -$418 |
| +5% | $17.32 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-156 | $-17,783 | +$4,017 | -$488 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.87/sh | +$1,731 cycle +$1,931 [+$1,513…+$2,097] · 98% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$29,540 NOT cap gain +$11,400 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.40/sh | +$805 cycle +$1,005 [+$281…+$1,110] · 82% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$20,998 NOT cap gain +$19,942 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$262 cycle +$462 [-$252…+$499] · 61% credit | 70% surv 62% | -$27,994 NOT cap gain +$12,946 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.08/sh | +$164 cycle +$364 [-$497…+$425] · 51% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$17,950 NOT cap gain +$22,990 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | -53% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,019 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 56.4% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 31.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-40,990 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-80.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.00 (1.7σ) | $200 | $-31,271 | +$9,669 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $82.00 (2.3σ) | $-3,800 | $-31,583 | +$9,357 | -$3,900 |
| +5% | $84.00 (3.0σ) | $-7,800 | $-31,895 | +$9,045 | -$4,900 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-26,600 | $-33,361 | +$7,579 | -$4,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.82/sh | +$982 cycle +$1,282 [+$776…+$1,114] · 99% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$33,837 NOT cap gain +$7,103 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.32/sh | +$383 cycle +$683 [-$81…+$467] · 68% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$25,475 NOT cap gain +$15,465 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$80 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$118 cycle +$418 [-$291…+$191] · 44% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$31,686 NOT cap gain +$9,254 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$10 cycle +$310 [-$534…+$74] · 32% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$23,760 NOT cap gain +$17,180 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | -29% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,120/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,431 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 37.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 21.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-24,594 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.0σ) | $300 | $-34,819 | +$6,121 | +$240 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.7σ) | $-2,040 | $-33,563 | +$7,377 | -$2,100 |
| +5% | $81.90 (2.3σ) | $-4,380 | $-32,307 | +$8,633 | -$4,440 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-18,180 | $-33,621 | +$7,319 | -$5,160 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.82/sh | +$1,391 cycle +$1,816 [+$1,081…+$1,579] · 99% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$33,328 NOT cap gain +$7,612 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.32/sh | +$543 cycle +$968 [-$186…+$651] · 65% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$24,898 NOT cap gain +$16,042 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$80 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$168 cycle +$593 [-$461…+$246] · 41% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$31,536 NOT cap gain +$9,404 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$14 cycle +$439 [-$835…+$81] · 30% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$22,339 NOT cap gain +$18,601 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,295/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,361 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 53.5% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 30.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-34,842 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.0σ) | $425 | $-34,719 | +$6,221 | +$340 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.7σ) | $-2,890 | $-34,438 | +$6,502 | -$2,975 |
| +5% | $81.90 (2.3σ) | $-6,205 | $-34,157 | +$6,783 | -$6,290 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-25,755 | $-35,771 | +$5,169 | -$7,310 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$76 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.78/sh | +$1,254 cycle +$2,134 [+$856…+$1,337] · 98% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$35,771 NOT cap gain +$5,169 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.51/sh | +$817 cycle +$1,697 [+$17…+$759] · 76% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$29,505 NOT cap gain +$11,435 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.26/sh | +$416 cycle +$1,296 [-$467…+$311] · 51% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$27,140 NOT cap gain +$13,800 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.08/sh | +$120 cycle +$1,000 [-$638…+$22] · 26% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$33,890 NOT cap gain +$7,050 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.45/sh | -$723 cycle +$157 [-$1,956…-$959] | 88% surv 87% | -$20,713 NOT cap gain +$20,227 |
| budget: banked $880 debit $723 (82% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$157 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $1,130/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,860/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,495 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 53.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 30.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-32,832 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-77.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $76.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $880 | $-37,025 | +$3,915 | +$800 |
| +2.5% | $78.41 (1.2σ) | $-2,180 | $-36,558 | +$4,382 | -$2,260 |
| +5% | $80.33 (1.8σ) | $-5,240 | $-36,092 | +$4,848 | -$5,320 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-26,160 | $-37,261 | +$3,679 | -$8,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$81 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.89/sh | +$1,779 cycle +$1,879 [+$1,568…+$2,149] · 98% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$27,748 NOT cap gain +$13,192 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$83 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.15/sh | +$296 cycle +$396 [-$334…+$557] · 66% credit | 70% surv 62% | -$26,216 NOT cap gain +$14,724 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$242 cycle +$342 [-$552…+$534] · 60% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$16,128 NOT cap gain +$24,812 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,119 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 53.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 29.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-40,990 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.19 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-81.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.00 (2.0σ) | $100 | $-29,527 | +$11,413 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $83.02 (2.7σ) | $-3,950 | $-29,843 | +$11,097 | -$3,000 |
| +5% | $85.05 (3.3σ) | $-8,000 | $-30,159 | +$10,781 | -$3,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-24,700 | $-31,461 | +$9,479 | -$3,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.88/sh | +$1,755 cycle +$1,855 [+$1,476…+$2,005] · 98% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$28,694 NOT cap gain +$12,246 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$847 cycle +$947 [+$136…+$1,038] · 78% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$20,133 NOT cap gain +$20,807 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$279 cycle +$379 [-$351…+$422] · 53% credit | 70% surv 62% | -$27,155 NOT cap gain +$13,785 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.10/sh | +$203 cycle +$303 [-$649…+$351] · 46% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$17,089 NOT cap gain +$23,851 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,119 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 54.8% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 30.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-41,040 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-80.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.50 (1.8σ) | $100 | $-30,449 | +$10,491 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $82.51 (2.5σ) | $-3,925 | $-30,763 | +$10,177 | -$4,000 |
| +5% | $84.53 (3.2σ) | $-7,950 | $-31,077 | +$9,863 | -$4,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-25,700 | $-32,461 | +$8,479 | -$4,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.84/sh | +$1,683 cycle +$1,883 [+$1,379…+$1,944] · 98% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$31,432 NOT cap gain +$9,508 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.36/sh | +$720 cycle +$920 [+$4…+$950] · 75% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$22,926 NOT cap gain +$18,014 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.11/sh | +$229 cycle +$429 [-$413…+$417] · 50% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$29,871 NOT cap gain +$11,069 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$89 cycle +$289 [-$760…+$287] · 43% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$19,869 NOT cap gain +$21,071 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | -53% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,019 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 59.9% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 33.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-41,040 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-79.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (1.4σ) | $200 | $-33,115 | +$7,825 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (2.0σ) | $-3,750 | $-33,423 | +$7,517 | -$3,850 |
| +5% | $82.95 (2.6σ) | $-7,700 | $-33,731 | +$7,209 | -$6,900 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-28,600 | $-35,361 | +$5,579 | -$6,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$77 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.80/sh | +$875 cycle +$1,315 [+$606…+$949] · 98% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$35,643 NOT cap gain +$5,297 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.53/sh | +$584 cycle +$1,024 [+$43…+$569] · 77% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$29,231 NOT cap gain +$11,709 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.28/sh | +$307 cycle +$747 [-$291…+$269] · 52% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$26,742 NOT cap gain +$14,198 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.08/sh | +$91 cycle +$531 [-$417…+$60] · 28% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$33,412 NOT cap gain +$7,528 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.03/sh | -$29 cycle +$411 [-$716…-$101] · 19% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$24,862 NOT cap gain +$16,078 |
| budget: banked $440 debit $29 (7% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$411 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $1,434/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,535/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,580 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 36.2% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 20.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-22,600 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-77.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $440 | $-36,518 | +$4,422 | +$385 |
| +2.5% | $78.92 (1.3σ) | $-1,677 | $-35,086 | +$5,854 | -$1,732 |
| +5% | $80.85 (2.0σ) | $-3,795 | $-33,654 | +$7,286 | -$3,850 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-17,600 | $-34,126 | +$6,814 | -$5,665 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$76 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.77/sh | +$541 cycle +$996 [+$344…+$526] · 97% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$37,786 NOT cap gain +$3,154 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.49/sh | +$344 cycle +$799 [-$50…+$249] · 69% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$31,280 NOT cap gain +$9,660 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.24/sh | +$168 cycle +$623 [-$262…+$67] · 39% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$28,690 NOT cap gain +$12,250 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$47 cycle +$502 [-$319…-$40] · 19% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$35,265 NOT cap gain +$5,675 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.46/sh | -$322 cycle +$133 [-$923…-$452] | 88% surv 87% | -$24,686 NOT cap gain +$16,254 |
| budget: banked $455 debit $322 (71% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $475/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,550/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,745/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,621 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 24.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 13.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-14,382 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.24 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $75-76.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $76.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $455 | $-38,327 | +$2,613 | +$420 |
| +2.5% | $77.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-875 | $-36,153 | +$4,787 | -$910 |
| +5% | $79.80 (1.6σ) | $-2,205 | $-33,980 | +$6,960 | -$2,240 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-11,725 | $-32,591 | +$8,349 | -$4,130 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$75 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.75/sh | +$375 cycle +$875 [+$187…+$321] · 95% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$39,741 NOT cap gain +$1,199 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.74/sh | +$372 cycle +$872 [+$50…+$293] · 81% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$33,964 NOT cap gain +$6,976 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.20/sh | +$101 cycle +$601 [-$306…+$4] · 26% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$30,546 NOT cap gain +$10,394 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$77 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$26 cycle +$526 [-$316…-$56] · 13% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$37,075 NOT cap gain +$3,865 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.71/sh | -$353 cycle +$147 [-$993…-$501] | 90% surv 90% | -$25,388 NOT cap gain +$15,552 |
| budget: banked $500 debit $353 (71% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$147 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $155/mo while parked; 15 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | +18% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,225/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,055 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 17.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 10.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-10,298 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $74.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $74-76.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $75.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $500 | $-40,116 | +$824 | +$475 |
| +2.5% | $76.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-438 | $-37,596 | +$3,344 | -$462 |
| +5% | $78.75 (1.3σ) | $-1,375 | $-35,076 | +$5,864 | -$1,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-8,700 | $-31,736 | +$9,204 | -$3,275 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.73/sh | +$218 cycle +$653 | 64% surv 51% | -$40,202 NOT cap gain +$738 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$76 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.19/sh | +$56 cycle +$491 | 71% surv 63% | -$39,193 NOT cap gain +$1,747 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$2 cycle +$437 | 81% surv 78% | -$30,949 NOT cap gain +$9,991 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.56/sh | -$167 cycle +$268 | 91% surv 90% | -$26,148 NOT cap gain +$14,792 |
| budget: banked $435 debit $167 (38% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$268 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $143/mo while parked; 17 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,350/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,605/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,198 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 10.9% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 6.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-6,178 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $73.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-75.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $74.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $435 | $-40,420 | +$520 | +$420 |
| +2.5% | $75.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-120 | $-39,159 | +$1,781 | -$135 |
| +5% | $77.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-675 | $-36,302 | +$4,638 | -$690 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-5,385 | $-30,591 | +$10,349 | -$2,130 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.72/sh | +$215 cycle +$725 | 64% surv 51% | -$40,130 NOT cap gain +$810 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$76 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$11 cycle +$521 | 74% surv 67% | -$39,163 NOT cap gain +$1,777 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.11/sh | +$34 cycle +$544 | 78% surv 75% | -$33,608 NOT cap gain +$7,332 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.59/sh | -$177 cycle +$333 | 90% surv 90% | -$26,227 NOT cap gain +$14,713 |
| budget: banked $510 debit $177 (35% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$333 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $125/mo while parked; 17 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,235/mo) | +20% |
| vs normal income ($8,471/mo) | 60% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,355/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,273 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 11.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 6.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-6,178 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-75.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $510 | $-40,345 | +$595 | +$495 |
| +2.5% | $75.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-41 | $-40,025 | +$915 | -$56 |
| +5% | $77.17 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-592 | $-37,188 | +$3,752 | -$608 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (6.1σ) | $-5,460 | $-30,666 | +$10,274 | -$2,205 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.87/sh | +$10,828 cycle +$12,703 [+$8,271…+$12,584] · 95% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$73,035 NOT cap gain +$49,965 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.43/sh | +$5,387 cycle +$7,262 [+$224…+$7,397] · 76% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$46,433 NOT cap gain +$76,567 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$1,197 cycle +$3,072 [-$3,644…+$2,626] · 50% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$66,279 NOT cap gain +$56,721 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$771 cycle +$2,646 [-$5,233…+$2,665] · 46% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$30,174 NOT cap gain +$92,826 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $18,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | -22% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $18,750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$96,946 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 350.9% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 34.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-123,750 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.50 (1.4σ) | $1,875 | $-83,863 | +$39,137 | +$1,750 |
| +2.5% | $28.19 (1.7σ) | $-6,719 | $-85,281 | +$37,719 | -$6,844 |
| +5% | $28.88 (2.0σ) | $-15,312 | $-86,699 | +$36,301 | -$15,438 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-150,750 | $-109,046 | +$13,954 | -$142,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (106 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.87/sh | +$9,182 cycle +$10,772 [+$6,769…+$10,659] · 96% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$74,947 NOT cap gain +$48,053 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.43/sh | +$4,568 cycle +$6,158 [-$374…+$5,979] · 73% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$47,518 NOT cap gain +$75,482 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$1,015 cycle +$2,605 [-$3,671…+$2,097] · 50% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$66,727 NOT cap gain +$56,273 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$654 cycle +$2,244 [-$5,141…+$1,972] · 46% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$30,557 NOT cap gain +$92,443 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,957/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$82,210 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 297.6% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 29.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (106 ct) | $-104,940 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.50 (1.4σ) | $1,590 | $-84,129 | +$38,871 | +$1,484 |
| +2.5% | $28.19 (1.7σ) | $-5,697 | $-84,241 | +$38,759 | -$5,803 |
| +5% | $28.88 (2.0σ) | $-12,985 | $-84,353 | +$38,647 | -$13,091 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-127,836 | $-87,462 | +$35,538 | -$120,416 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (120 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.82/sh | +$9,846 cycle +$12,246 [+$6,995…+$11,143] · 96% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$83,924 NOT cap gain +$39,076 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.37/sh | +$4,382 cycle +$6,782 [-$1,418…+$5,440] · 69% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$57,346 NOT cap gain +$65,654 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$28 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$789 cycle +$3,189 [-$4,916…+$1,421] · 38% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$76,595 NOT cap gain +$46,405 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.00/sh | +$47 cycle +$2,447 [-$6,735…+$726] · 30% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$40,805 NOT cap gain +$82,195 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $24,015/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$104,468 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 378.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 37.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (120 ct) | $-119,280 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.50 (1.0σ) | $2,400 | $-93,771 | +$29,229 | +$2,280 |
| +2.5% | $27.16 (1.3σ) | $-5,550 | $-94,806 | +$28,194 | -$5,670 |
| +5% | $27.83 (1.6σ) | $-13,500 | $-95,841 | +$27,159 | -$13,620 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-156,120 | $-114,766 | +$8,234 | -$147,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (98 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.75/sh | +$7,389 cycle +$12,191 [+$4,085…+$6,991] · 93% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$99,614 NOT cap gain +$23,386 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.55/sh | +$5,355 cycle +$10,157 [-$164…+$4,089] · 74% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$80,042 NOT cap gain +$42,958 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$224 cycle +$5,026 [-$5,441…-$1,034] · 17% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$90,392 NOT cap gain +$32,608 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.01/sh | +$68 cycle +$4,870 [-$6,561…-$1,380] · 16% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$74,892 NOT cap gain +$48,108 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.42/sh | -$4,117 cycle +$685 [-$12,388…-$5,921] | 87% surv 86% | -$37,327 NOT cap gain +$85,673 |
| budget: banked $4,802 debit $4,117 (86% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$685 cash · rolled 98 ct earn ≈ $7,193/mo while parked; 27 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $48,020/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $48,101/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$97,173 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 351.8% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 35.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (98 ct) | $-97,706 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,802 | $-107,003 | +$15,997 | +$4,704 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,323 | $-106,604 | +$16,396 | -$1,421 |
| +5% | $26.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-7,448 | $-106,206 | +$16,794 | -$7,546 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-139,356 | $-99,542 | +$23,458 | -$132,496 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$29 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.94/sh | +$11,709 cycle +$12,584 [+$9,945…+$14,772] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$57,498 NOT cap gain +$65,502 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.53/sh | +$6,681 cycle +$7,556 [+$2,354…+$10,275] · 79% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$30,482 NOT cap gain +$92,518 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,786 cycle +$2,661 [-$2,491…+$4,406] · 63% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$51,034 NOT cap gain +$71,966 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.15/sh | +$1,936 cycle +$2,811 [-$3,238…+$5,303] · 59% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$14,353 NOT cap gain +$108,647 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$79,196 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 286.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 28.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-123,312 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $28.71 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.00 (2.0σ) | $875 | $-69,207 | +$53,793 | +$750 |
| +2.5% | $29.72 (2.3σ) | $-8,187 | $-70,702 | +$52,298 | -$8,312 |
| +5% | $30.45 (2.6σ) | $-17,250 | $-72,198 | +$50,802 | -$17,375 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-133,000 | $-91,296 | +$31,704 | -$124,250 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (96 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.80/sh | +$7,662 cycle +$10,062 [+$5,059…+$8,477] · 96% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$91,304 NOT cap gain +$31,696 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.33/sh | +$3,199 cycle +$5,599 [-$1,825…+$3,628] · 62% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$63,723 NOT cap gain +$59,277 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$28 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$491 cycle +$2,891 [-$4,107…+$681] · 32% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$82,088 NOT cap gain +$40,912 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.05/sh | +$462 cycle +$2,862 [-$4,917…+$672] · 30% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$66,461 NOT cap gain +$56,539 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$226 cycle +$2,174 [-$5,933…-$12] · 25% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$46,273 NOT cap gain +$76,727 |
| budget: banked $2,400 debit $226 (9% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,174 cash · rolled 96 ct earn ≈ $12,971/mo while parked; 29 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $24,087/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$87,894 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 318.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 31.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (96 ct) | $-95,424 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,400 | $-98,965 | +$24,035 | +$2,304 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (1.1σ) | $-3,840 | $-98,421 | +$24,579 | -$3,936 |
| +5% | $27.30 (1.4σ) | $-10,080 | $-97,877 | +$25,123 | -$10,176 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-129,216 | $-89,542 | +$33,458 | -$122,496 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (75 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.78/sh | +$5,819 cycle +$8,219 [+$3,598…+$6,161] · 95% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$98,344 NOT cap gain +$24,656 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.58/sh | +$4,357 cycle +$6,757 [+$637…+$4,353] · 80% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$78,201 NOT cap gain +$44,799 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$276 cycle +$2,676 [-$3,549…-$25] · 25% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$87,500 NOT cap gain +$35,500 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.03/sh | +$204 cycle +$2,604 [-$4,285…-$188] · 23% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$71,916 NOT cap gain +$51,084 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$32 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.32/sh | -$2,382 cycle +$18 [-$7,317…-$3,017] · 0% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$43,189 NOT cap gain +$79,811 |
| budget: banked $2,400 debit $2,382 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$18 cash · rolled 75 ct earn ≈ $9,403/mo while parked; 50 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $24,150/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$71,892 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 260.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 25.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (75 ct) | $-74,925 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,400 | $-104,163 | +$18,837 | +$2,325 |
| +2.5% | $26.14 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,381 | $-102,290 | +$20,710 | -$2,456 |
| +5% | $26.78 (1.1σ) | $-7,163 | $-100,418 | +$22,582 | -$7,238 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-104,175 | $-65,971 | +$57,029 | -$98,925 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (42 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.73/sh | +$3,076 cycle +$5,512 [+$1,386…+$2,664] · 92% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$111,456 NOT cap gain +$11,544 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.51/sh | +$2,153 cycle +$4,589 [-$656…+$1,555] · 66% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$90,773 NOT cap gain +$32,227 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.24/sh | +$1,014 cycle +$3,450 [-$2,102…+$369] · 36% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$81,474 NOT cap gain +$41,526 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$38 cycle +$2,474 [-$2,783…-$539] · 14% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$98,107 NOT cap gain +$24,893 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.43/sh | -$1,811 cycle +$625 [-$5,896…-$2,641] | 87% surv 86% | -$42,550 NOT cap gain +$80,450 |
| budget: banked $2,436 debit $1,811 (74% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$625 cash · rolled 42 ct earn ≈ $2,861/mo while parked; 83 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,360/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $24,609/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,368 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 157.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 15.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (42 ct) | $-42,210 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-25.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,436 | $-114,532 | +$8,468 | +$2,394 |
| +2.5% | $25.11 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-136 | $-110,711 | +$12,289 | -$178 |
| +5% | $25.73 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,709 | $-106,891 | +$16,109 | -$2,751 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-61,446 | $-25,552 | +$97,448 | -$58,506 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (31 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.71/sh | +$2,204 cycle +$4,622 [+$772…+$1,854] · 88% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$117,553 NOT cap gain +$5,447 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.57/sh | +$1,765 cycle +$4,183 [-$304…+$1,299] · 69% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$101,605 NOT cap gain +$21,395 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.26/sh | +$808 cycle +$3,226 [-$1,106…+$369] · 42% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$107,781 NOT cap gain +$15,219 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$658 cycle +$3,076 [-$1,975…+$57] · 27% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$87,056 NOT cap gain +$35,944 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.59/sh | -$1,816 cycle +$602 [-$5,494…-$2,633] | 92% surv 91% | -$26,906 NOT cap gain +$96,094 |
| budget: banked $2,418 debit $1,816 (75% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$602 cash · rolled 31 ct earn ≈ $1,343/mo while parked; 94 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,180/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $24,462/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,940 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 119.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 11.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (31 ct) | $-31,202 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.76 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-25.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,418 | $-119,757 | +$3,243 | +$2,387 |
| +2.5% | $24.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $558 | $-115,355 | +$7,645 | +$527 |
| +5% | $25.20 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,302 | $-110,952 | +$12,048 | -$1,333 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-46,283 | $-11,159 | +$111,841 | -$44,113 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.69/sh | +$1,656 cycle +$4,104 | 68% surv 53% | -$118,795 NOT cap gain +$4,205 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$242 cycle +$2,690 | 75% surv 67% | -$109,041 NOT cap gain +$13,959 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.09/sh | +$227 cycle +$2,675 | 79% surv 75% | -$88,181 NOT cap gain +$34,819 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.62/sh | -$1,477 cycle +$971 | 93% surv 92% | -$27,260 NOT cap gain +$95,740 |
| budget: banked $2,448 debit $1,477 (60% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$971 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $856/mo while parked; 101 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,934/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($47,868/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $24,783/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,126 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 94.6% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 9.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-24,228 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $23-24.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $23.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,448 | $-120,451 | +$2,549 | +$2,424 |
| +2.5% | $24.09 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,038 | $-120,217 | +$2,783 | +$1,014 |
| +5% | $24.68 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-372 | $-115,495 | +$7,505 | -$396 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-36,456 | $-1,822 | +$121,178 | -$34,776 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$111 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$2.91/sh | +$2,911 cycle +$3,361 [+$2,674…+$3,399] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$16,699 NOT cap gain +$14,071 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$127 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.09/sh | +$1,092 cycle +$1,542 [+$273…+$1,454] · 83% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$4,208 NOT cap gain +$26,562 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$132 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$161 cycle +$611 [-$865…+$460] · 48% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$639 NOT cap gain +$30,131 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$119 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$134 cycle +$584 [-$644…+$356] · 47% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$12,366 NOT cap gain +$18,404 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -23% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,991 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 79.2% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 79.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,810 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $109.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $110-111.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $111.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $111.00 (1.5σ) | $450 | $-19,610 | +$11,160 | +$440 |
| +2.5% | $113.77 (1.9σ) | $-2,325 | $-19,887 | +$10,883 | -$2,335 |
| +5% | $116.55 (2.2σ) | $-5,100 | $-20,165 | +$10,605 | -$5,110 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-121,550 | $-31,810 | -$1,040 | -$88,560 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$111 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$2.91/sh | +$2,620 cycle +$3,025 [+$2,404…+$3,096] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$17,034 NOT cap gain +$13,736 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$127 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.09/sh | +$983 cycle +$1,388 [+$296…+$1,378] · 82% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$4,361 NOT cap gain +$26,409 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$132 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$145 cycle +$550 [-$745…+$515] · 51% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$699 NOT cap gain +$30,071 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$119 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$121 cycle +$526 [-$541…+$408] · 50% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$12,423 NOT cap gain +$18,347 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,053/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,792 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 71.3% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 71.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-27,729 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $109.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $110-111.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $111.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $111.00 (1.5σ) | $405 | $-19,654 | +$11,116 | +$396 |
| +2.5% | $113.77 (1.9σ) | $-2,092 | $-19,654 | +$11,116 | -$2,101 |
| +5% | $116.55 (2.2σ) | $-4,590 | $-19,654 | +$11,116 | -$4,599 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-109,395 | $-22,954 | +$7,816 | -$79,704 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$105 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$2.66/sh | +$1,331 cycle +$1,936 [+$1,106…+$1,471] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$23,519 NOT cap gain +$7,251 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$116 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.90/sh | +$950 cycle +$1,555 [+$442…+$1,026] · 95% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$14,090 NOT cap gain +$16,680 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$121 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.70/sh | +$348 cycle +$953 [-$331…+$365] · 55% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$10,192 NOT cap gain +$20,578 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$112 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.26/sh | +$128 cycle +$733 [-$401…+$137] · 35% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$18,512 NOT cap gain +$12,258 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$131 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.77/sh | -$384 cycle +$221 [-$1,269…-$449] · 2% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$1,924 NOT cap gain +$28,846 |
| budget: banked $605 debit $384 (64% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$221 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,341/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,065/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,615 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 44.6% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 44.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,408 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $103.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $104-106.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $106.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $105.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $605 | $-24,850 | +$5,920 | +$600 |
| +2.5% | $107.62 (1.1σ) | $-707 | $-23,800 | +$6,970 | -$712 |
| +5% | $110.25 (1.4σ) | $-2,020 | $-22,750 | +$8,020 | -$2,025 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-63,395 | $9,850 | +$40,620 | -$46,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$105 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$2.66/sh | +$2,663 cycle +$3,873 [+$2,209…+$2,954] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$21,587 NOT cap gain +$9,183 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$116 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.90/sh | +$1,899 cycle +$3,109 [+$909…+$2,068] · 95% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$12,541 NOT cap gain +$18,229 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$121 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.70/sh | +$697 cycle +$1,907 [-$573…+$769] · 56% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$9,243 NOT cap gain +$21,527 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$112 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.26/sh | +$255 cycle +$1,465 [-$760…+$309] · 35% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$17,785 NOT cap gain +$12,985 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$131 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.77/sh | -$768 cycle +$442 [-$2,465…-$836] · 4% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$1,708 NOT cap gain +$29,062 |
| budget: banked $1,210 debit $768 (64% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$442 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,681/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,100/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,231 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 89.1% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 89.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,815 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $103.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $104-106.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $106.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $105.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,210 | $-24,250 | +$6,520 | +$1,200 |
| +2.5% | $107.62 (1.1σ) | $-1,415 | $-24,512 | +$6,258 | -$1,425 |
| +5% | $110.25 (1.4σ) | $-4,040 | $-24,775 | +$5,995 | -$4,050 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-126,790 | $-37,050 | -$6,280 | -$93,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$125 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.53/sh | +$3,530 cycle +$3,580 | 67% surv 53% | -$3,880 NOT cap gain +$26,890 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$136 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$57 | 79% surv 73% | +$2,407 SAFE cap gain +$33,177 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$151 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.28/sh | +$284 cycle +$334 | 84% surv 81% | +$16,184 SAFE cap gain +$46,954 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,391 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 53.6% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 53.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,785 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $123.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $124-125.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $125.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $125.00 (3.3σ) | $50 | $-7,410 | +$23,360 | +$40 |
| +2.5% | $128.12 (3.7σ) | $-3,075 | $-7,722 | +$23,048 | -$3,085 |
| +5% | $131.25 (4.1σ) | $-6,200 | $-8,035 | +$22,735 | -$6,210 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-107,950 | $-18,210 | +$12,560 | -$74,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$124 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.48/sh | +$3,484 cycle +$3,534 | 67% surv 53% | -$4,826 NOT cap gain +$25,944 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$134 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$128 cycle +$178 | 78% surv 72% | +$728 SAFE cap gain +$31,498 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$150 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.22/sh | +$220 cycle +$270 | 84% surv 82% | +$15,220 SAFE cap gain +$45,990 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,391 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 55.5% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 55.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $122.76 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $123-124.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $124.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $124.00 (3.2σ) | $50 | $-8,310 | +$22,460 | +$40 |
| +2.5% | $127.10 (3.6σ) | $-3,050 | $-8,620 | +$22,150 | -$3,060 |
| +5% | $130.20 (4.0σ) | $-6,150 | $-8,930 | +$21,840 | -$6,160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-108,950 | $-19,210 | +$11,560 | -$75,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$123 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.44/sh | +$3,438 cycle +$3,488 | 67% surv 53% | -$5,772 NOT cap gain +$24,998 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$133 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$91 cycle +$141 | 78% surv 72% | -$209 NOT cap gain +$30,561 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$149 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$157 cycle +$207 | 84% surv 82% | +$14,257 SAFE cap gain +$45,027 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,391 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 57.3% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 57.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,835 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $121.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $122-123.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $123.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $123.00 (3.0σ) | $50 | $-9,210 | +$21,560 | +$40 |
| +2.5% | $126.07 (3.4σ) | $-3,025 | $-9,517 | +$21,253 | -$3,035 |
| +5% | $129.15 (3.8σ) | $-6,100 | $-9,825 | +$20,945 | -$6,110 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-109,950 | $-20,210 | +$10,560 | -$76,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$121 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.35/sh | +$3,347 cycle +$3,427 | 67% surv 53% | -$7,633 NOT cap gain +$23,137 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$131 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$19 cycle +$99 | 78% surv 73% | -$2,051 NOT cap gain +$28,719 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$147 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.03/sh | +$34 cycle +$114 | 85% surv 82% | +$12,364 SAFE cap gain +$43,134 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $800/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,361 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 61.1% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 61.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,805 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $119.79 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $120-121.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $121.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $121.00 (2.8σ) | $80 | $-10,980 | +$19,790 | +$70 |
| +2.5% | $124.02 (3.2σ) | $-2,945 | $-11,282 | +$19,488 | -$2,955 |
| +5% | $127.05 (3.6σ) | $-5,970 | $-11,585 | +$19,185 | -$5,980 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-111,920 | $-22,180 | +$8,590 | -$78,930 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$120 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.30/sh | +$3,302 cycle +$3,402 | 67% surv 53% | -$8,558 NOT cap gain +$22,212 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$129 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$180 cycle +$280 | 77% surv 71% | -$3,670 NOT cap gain +$27,100 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$141 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.73/sh | +$726 cycle +$826 | 82% surv 79% | +$7,676 SAFE cap gain +$38,446 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$146 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.03/sh | -$26 cycle +$74 | 85% surv 83% | +$11,424 SAFE cap gain +$42,194 |
| budget: banked $100 debit $26 (26% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,570/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -83% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,341 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 62.9% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 62.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,795 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $118.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $119-120.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $120.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $120.00 (2.7σ) | $100 | $-11,860 | +$18,910 | +$90 |
| +2.5% | $123.00 (3.0σ) | $-2,900 | $-12,160 | +$18,610 | -$2,910 |
| +5% | $126.00 (3.4σ) | $-5,900 | $-12,460 | +$18,310 | -$5,910 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-112,900 | $-23,160 | +$7,610 | -$79,910 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$118 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.21/sh | +$3,213 cycle +$3,343 [+$3,223…+$3,903] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$10,417 NOT cap gain +$20,353 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$139 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.59/sh | +$592 cycle +$722 [-$206…+$1,279] · 64% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$5,772 SAFE cap gain +$36,542 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$127 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.11/sh | +$109 cycle +$239 [-$670…+$586] · 51% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$5,511 NOT cap gain +$25,259 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,311 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 66.6% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 66.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,810 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $116.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $117-118.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $118.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $118.00 (2.4σ) | $130 | $-13,630 | +$17,140 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $120.95 (2.8σ) | $-2,820 | $-13,925 | +$16,845 | -$2,830 |
| +5% | $123.90 (3.2σ) | $-5,770 | $-14,220 | +$16,550 | -$5,780 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-114,870 | $-25,130 | +$5,640 | -$81,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$117 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.17/sh | +$3,169 cycle +$3,309 [+$3,022…+$3,817] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$11,351 NOT cap gain +$19,419 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$138 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.53/sh | +$527 cycle +$667 [-$533…+$1,151] · 66% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$4,817 SAFE cap gain +$35,587 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$126 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$75 cycle +$215 [-$822…+$500] · 54% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$6,435 NOT cap gain +$24,335 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,400/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$36,301 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 68.5% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 68.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,820 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $115.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $116-117.19 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $117.19 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $117.00 (2.3σ) | $140 | $-14,520 | +$16,250 | +$130 |
| +2.5% | $119.92 (2.6σ) | $-2,785 | $-14,812 | +$15,958 | -$2,795 |
| +5% | $122.85 (3.0σ) | $-5,710 | $-15,105 | +$15,665 | -$5,720 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-115,860 | $-26,120 | +$4,650 | -$82,870 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$116 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.13/sh | +$3,126 cycle +$3,296 [+$3,252…+$3,808] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$12,264 NOT cap gain +$18,506 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$137 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.46/sh | +$463 cycle +$633 [-$92…+$997] · 70% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$3,883 SAFE cap gain +$34,653 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$125 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$41 cycle +$211 [-$441…+$391] · 53% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$7,339 NOT cap gain +$23,431 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,700/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,271 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 70.3% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 70.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,820 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $114.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $115-116.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $116.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $116.00 (2.1σ) | $170 | $-15,390 | +$15,380 | +$160 |
| +2.5% | $118.90 (2.5σ) | $-2,730 | $-15,680 | +$15,090 | -$2,740 |
| +5% | $121.80 (2.9σ) | $-5,630 | $-15,970 | +$14,800 | -$5,640 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-116,830 | $-27,090 | +$3,680 | -$83,840 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.08/sh | +$3,082 cycle +$3,322 [+$3,006…+$3,738] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$13,138 NOT cap gain +$17,632 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$136 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.40/sh | +$401 cycle +$641 [-$547…+$1,044] · 61% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$2,991 SAFE cap gain +$33,761 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$124 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$247 [-$908…+$461] · 47% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$8,203 NOT cap gain +$22,567 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,400/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,201 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 72.1% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 72.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $113.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $114-115.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $115.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $115.00 (2.0σ) | $240 | $-16,220 | +$14,550 | +$230 |
| +2.5% | $117.87 (2.4σ) | $-2,635 | $-16,507 | +$14,263 | -$2,645 |
| +5% | $120.75 (2.8σ) | $-5,510 | $-16,795 | +$13,975 | -$5,520 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-117,760 | $-28,020 | +$2,750 | -$84,770 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$114 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.04/sh | +$3,039 cycle +$3,259 [+$3,057…+$3,660] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$14,101 NOT cap gain +$16,669 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$122 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.24/sh | +$237 cycle +$457 [-$372…+$601] · 60% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$9,793 NOT cap gain +$20,977 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$135 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.34/sh | +$339 cycle +$559 [-$492…+$782] · 60% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$2,009 SAFE cap gain +$32,779 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,200/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,221 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 74.0% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 74.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,830 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $112.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $113-114.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $114.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $114.00 (1.9σ) | $220 | $-17,140 | +$13,630 | +$210 |
| +2.5% | $116.85 (2.3σ) | $-2,630 | $-17,425 | +$13,345 | -$2,640 |
| +5% | $119.70 (2.6σ) | $-5,480 | $-17,710 | +$13,060 | -$5,490 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-118,780 | $-29,040 | +$1,730 | -$85,790 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$113 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$3.00/sh | +$2,996 cycle +$3,276 [+$2,918…+$3,596] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$14,984 NOT cap gain +$15,786 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$129 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.23/sh | +$1,232 cycle +$1,512 [+$564…+$1,737] · 85% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$2,438 NOT cap gain +$28,332 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$121 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.20/sh | +$202 cycle +$482 [-$555…+$566] · 57% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$10,668 NOT cap gain +$20,102 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$134 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.28/sh | +$278 cycle +$558 [-$680…+$731] · 56% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$1,108 SAFE cap gain +$31,878 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,800/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,161 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 75.8% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 75.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,830 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $111.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $112-113.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $113.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $113.00 (1.8σ) | $280 | $-17,980 | +$12,790 | +$270 |
| +2.5% | $115.82 (2.1σ) | $-2,545 | $-18,262 | +$12,508 | -$2,555 |
| +5% | $118.65 (2.5σ) | $-5,370 | $-18,545 | +$12,225 | -$5,380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-119,720 | $-29,980 | +$790 | -$86,730 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$112 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$2.95/sh | +$2,953 cycle +$3,333 [+$2,690…+$3,450] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$15,827 NOT cap gain +$14,943 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$128 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.16/sh | +$1,162 cycle +$1,542 [+$164…+$1,533] · 81% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$3,308 NOT cap gain +$27,462 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$120 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.17/sh | +$168 cycle +$548 [-$764…+$419] · 49% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$11,502 NOT cap gain +$19,268 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$133 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.22/sh | +$219 cycle +$599 [-$1,008…+$518] · 48% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$249 SAFE cap gain +$31,019 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -35% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,800/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,061 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 77.5% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 77.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,805 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $110.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $111-112.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $112.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $112.00 (1.6σ) | $380 | $-18,780 | +$11,990 | +$370 |
| +2.5% | $114.80 (2.0σ) | $-2,420 | $-19,060 | +$11,710 | -$2,430 |
| +5% | $117.60 (2.4σ) | $-5,220 | $-19,340 | +$11,430 | -$5,230 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-120,620 | $-30,880 | -$110 | -$87,630 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$110 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$2.87/sh | +$2,869 cycle +$3,389 [+$2,532…+$3,401] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$17,571 NOT cap gain +$13,199 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$126 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.02/sh | +$1,024 cycle +$1,544 [+$69…+$1,465] · 77% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$5,106 NOT cap gain +$25,664 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$118 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$101 cycle +$621 [-$794…+$437] · 47% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$13,229 NOT cap gain +$17,541 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$131 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.10/sh | +$104 cycle +$624 [-$1,063…+$503] · 44% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$1,526 NOT cap gain +$29,244 |
| SS $233 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,868/mo) | -11% |
| vs normal income ($11,735/mo) | 44% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,200/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,921 |
| … as % of IC ($53,000) | 81.0% |
| … as % of ML ($53,000) | 81.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-30,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $108.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $109-110.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $110.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $110.00 (1.4σ) | $520 | $-20,440 | +$10,330 | +$510 |
| +2.5% | $112.75 (1.7σ) | $-2,230 | $-20,715 | +$10,055 | -$2,240 |
| +5% | $115.50 (2.1σ) | $-4,980 | $-20,990 | +$9,780 | -$4,990 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $233.00 (17.0σ) | $-122,480 | $-32,740 | -$1,970 | -$89,490 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) | $646.88 | $653.94 | $42.23 | $25.35 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $16.88/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $25.35 is live theta (~$7,605). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. Rolling $630→$647.5 banks +$0.07/sh (+$22) and sells fatter forward theta, you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it. ▸ Gate on price: hold while META is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $647.5, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 3x $630C at ~$40.85 ($12,255), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $370.75 | $378.34 | $1.16 | $1.16 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.25 OTM. The $1.16 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,292 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $375.12 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. 🚪 Escape paths deferred , GLD is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers GLD. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (6d) | $743.95 | $758.65 | $0.87 | $0.87 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.05 OTM. The $0.87 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$719 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $758.65 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , SPY is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers SPY. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $96.5C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $93.28 | $97.00 | $0.53 | $0.53 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.22 OTM. The $0.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$543 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $97.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $212.5C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $203.83 | $213.74 | $1.39 | $1.39 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.67 OTM. The $1.39 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$596 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $213.74 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $172.66 | $181.61 | $3.07 | $3.07 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.34 OTM. The $3.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$778 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $181.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $162.24 | $172.10 | $2.06 | $2.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.76 OTM. The $2.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,640 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $169.15 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $99.10 | $106.34 | $1.08 | $1.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.90 OTM. The $1.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$517 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $104.47 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $90.47 | $97.96 | $0.76 | $0.76 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.53 OTM. The $0.76 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$456 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $96.52 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $325.00 | $355.09 | $1.89 | $1.89 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 25.00 OTM. The $1.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$504 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $355.09 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $386.38 | $425.13 | $9.74 | $9.74 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 33.62 OTM. The $9.74 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,525 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $425.13 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $134C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $121.00 | $135.04 | $2.03 | $2.03 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.00 OTM. The $2.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$496 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $135.04 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $162.24 | $180.52 | $0.79 | $0.79 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.76 OTM. The $0.79 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,175 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $179.10 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $74.78 | $84.96 | $0.88 | $0.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.22 OTM. The $0.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $66.61 | $76.39 | $1.07 | $1.07 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.39 OTM. The $1.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$801 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $76.39 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $424.60 | $486.90 | $2.44 | $2.44 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 55.40 OTM. The $2.44 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$685 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $486.90 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $39.65 | $45.56 | $0.77 | $0.77 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.35 OTM. The $0.77 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$506 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $45.56 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $99.43 | $117.62 | $1.48 | $1.48 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.57 OTM. The $1.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$784 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $117.62 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) | $888.84 | $1,047.99 | $5.67 | $5.67 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 151.16 OTM. The $5.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,588 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,047.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) | $353.63 | $385.01 | $4.89 | $4.89 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.37 OTM. The $4.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$22,444 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $385.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) | $250.12 | $283.10 | $1.54 | $1.54 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 29.88 OTM. The $1.54 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,048 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $283.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) | $162.24 | $193.34 | $2.38 | $2.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 27.76 OTM. The $2.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$988 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $193.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) | $888.84 | $1,069.99 | $17.05 | $17.05 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 161.16 OTM. The $17.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,069.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d) | $41.67 | $55.87 | $0.39 | $0.39 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.33 OTM. The $0.39 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,638 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.87 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d) | $41.67 | $55.85 | $0.39 | $0.39 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.33 OTM. The $0.39 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,610 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.85 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOW ↗⚡ER 2d | Main:1299 | 10 | $104.55 | $113.43 | 8.5% | $114 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · 88% surv | 24% | $2,860 | $28,600/mo (208%) | $13,765/mo | sell 10x $114 CC |
| IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ | Main:1299 | 20 | $41.67 | $55.15 | 32.4% | $56 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · 87% surv | 29% | $1,200 | $2,118/mo (15%) | $14,471/mo | sell 20x $56 CC |
| IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ | Joint:1782 | 20 | $41.67 | $55.15 | 32.4% | $56 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · 87% surv | 29% | $1,200 | $2,118/mo (15%) | $14,471/mo | sell 20x $56 CC |
| CLSK ↗⚡ER 17d | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $14.59 | $18.71 | 28.2% | $19 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · 86% surv | 29% | $800 | $1,000/mo (19%) | $5,294/mo | sell 25x $19 CC |
| GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER 2d | Neville:0865 | 5 | $353.66 | $381.97 | 8.0% | $385 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · 86% surv | 30% | $1,180 | $3,540/mo (34%) | $10,491/mo | sell 5x $385 CC |
| MARA-LC40 ↗⚡ER 8d | Main:1299 | 200 | $11.77 | $14.65 | 24.5% | $15 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · 86% surv | 31% | $5,600 | $7,000/mo (23%) | $31,059/mo | sell 200x $15 CC |
| GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER 2d | Joint:1782 | 5 | $353.66 | $346.12 | 0.0% | $380 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · 82% surv | 37% | $1,500 | $4,500/mo (43%) | $10,491/mo | sell 5x $380 CC |
| RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 10d | Joint:1782 | 50 | $20.08 | $22.94 | 14.2% | $23 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · 80% surv | 42% | $2,300 | $6,900/mo (46%) | $14,912/mo | sell 50x $23 CC |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Headroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $32.70 | $17.47 | +87.2% |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $16.79 | $39.13 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 57.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $16.79 | $30.29 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 44.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $16.79 | $44.46 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 62.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| ETHA | Main:1299 | 50 | $14.48 | $17.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 16.4% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $37.05 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200 | $11.77 | $22.69 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| MARA-LC20-1782 | Joint:1782 | 50 | $11.77 | $24.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 51.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250 | $11.77 | $26.40 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.4% below BE SS |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10 | $256.25 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $56.15 | 10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $96C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d) |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (10d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $212C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $134C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (6d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 71 | 55% | 85% | +29pp |
| 60-70% | 115 | 64% | 88% | +24pp |
| 70-80% | 162 | 77% | 98% | +22pp |
| 80-90% | 199 | 84% | 99% | +15pp |
| 90-100% | 340 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 75 real buyback(s) recorded · 18 roll(s), net +$0.84/sh avg.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.