FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

42 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 8 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 3 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 2 uncapped above water | 21 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $46,402/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $13,471/mo · plus $21,210/mo CC-safe on 3 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $56,976 locked in if all 4 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 1 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
SPCX ↗ ▲ UP +2.7% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$151.43	$190.07	5 × $195 2 Oct (22d) $295 cyc · $402/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:6%hist 3%	5 × $170 18 Sep (8d) $400 cyc · $1,500/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13%	🎯 5 × $165 18 Sep (8d) $665 cyc · $2,494/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 31%	4 × $160 18 Sep (8d) $896 cyc · $3,360/mo 75% survhist 83% · T:51%hist 44%	5 × $155 18 Sep (8d) $1,850 cyc · $6,938/mo 62% survhist 65% · T:78%hist 64%	$3,445	-$11,870 (87.9% IC)	25.5%
AMZN ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	5	$250.88	$270.08	5 × $275 2 Oct (22d) $625 cyc · $852/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:22%hist 26%	5 × $267.50 18 Sep (8d) $305 cyc · $1,144/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13%	🎯 5 × $262.50 18 Sep (8d) $610 cyc · $2,288/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 31%	5 × $260 18 Sep (8d) $880 cyc · $3,300/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:43%hist 39%	4 × $252.50 18 Sep (8d) $1,700 cyc · $6,375/mo 57% survhist 70% · T:88%hist 79%	$980	-$3,182 (9.4% IC)	7.7%
APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	1	$307.22	$612.31	—	1 × $345 18 Sep (8d) $115 cyc · $431/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	🎯 1 × $332.50 18 Sep (8d) $250 cyc · $938/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 31%	1 × $325 18 Sep (8d) $410 cyc · $1,537/mo 76% survhist 83% · T:50%hist 39%	1 × $312.50 18 Sep (8d) $790 cyc · $2,962/mo 60% survhist 70% · T:83%hist 79%	$2,348	-$27,731 (216.7% IC)	99.3%
GOOG-LC340 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$326.83	$383.65	5 × $385 2 Oct (22d) $215 cyc · $293/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:6%hist 3%	5 × $347.50 18 Sep (8d) $400 cyc · $1,500/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13%	5 × $340 18 Sep (8d) $810 cyc · $3,038/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 31%	🎯 5 × $337.50 18 Sep (8d) $1,055 cyc · $3,956/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:47%hist 39%	5 × $330 18 Sep (8d) $2,175 cyc · $8,156/mo 59% survhist 70% · T:83%hist 79%	$24,503	-$22,021 (86.4% IC)	17.4%
IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	20	$43.85	$66.61	20 × $65 18 Sep (8d) $40 cyc · $150/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:2%hist 3%	20 × $52 18 Sep (8d) $640 cyc · $2,400/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	🎯 19 × $50 18 Sep (8d) $1,045 cyc · $3,919/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 26%	18 × $48 18 Sep (8d) $1,584 cyc · $5,940/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:45%hist 39%	20 × $45.50 18 Sep (8d) $3,160 cyc · $11,850/mo 64% survhist 65% · T:75%hist 64%	$3,610	-$30,505 (222.7% IC)	51.9%
RKLB ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	6	$64.43	$149.30	—	6 × $75 18 Sep (8d) $222 cyc · $832/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13%	🎯 6 × $72 18 Sep (8d) $366 cyc · $1,372/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 31%	6 × $70 18 Sep (8d) $534 cyc · $2,002/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:44%hist 39%	6 × $66 18 Sep (8d) $1,116 cyc · $4,185/mo 61% survhist 65% · T:81%hist 79%	$2,212	-$46,016 (288.9% IC)	131.7%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
GOOG-LC300 ↗ BORDERLINE 29% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	15	$326.83	$344.91	🎯 15 × $345 25 Sep (15d) $3,270 cyc · $6,540/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 31% above floor +$137 · hole 4.1mo	15 × $347.50 18 Sep (8d) $1,200 cyc · $4,500/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$3,887 · hole 6.0mo	13 × $340 18 Sep (8d) $2,106 cyc · $7,898/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 31% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 3.4mo	15 × $337.50 18 Sep (8d) $3,165 cyc · $11,869/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:47%hist 39% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 2.3mo	14 × $330 18 Sep (8d) $6,090 cyc · $22,838/mo 59% survhist 70% · T:83%hist 79% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 1.2mo	$31,054	+$137 whole if assigned	5.5% whole ~13 Jan on 🎯
NVDA ↗ ▼ DOWN -2.3% Main:1299 · Next Fri	10	$218.48	$227.71	🎯 10 × $230 18 Sep (8d) $1,080 cyc · $4,050/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 31% above floor +$2,294 · hole 2.3mo	10 × $235 18 Sep (8d) $510 cyc · $1,912/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 13% above floor +$7,294 · hole 4.8mo	🎯 10 × $230 18 Sep (8d) $1,080 cyc · $4,050/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 31% above floor +$2,294 · hole 2.3mo	8 × $225 18 Sep (8d) $1,752 cyc · $6,570/mo 72% survhist 83% · T:56%hist 44% locks −$413 · hole 1.4mo	8 × $220 18 Sep (8d) $3,240 cyc · $12,150/mo 56% survhist 70% · T:89%hist 79% locks −$2,925 · hole 0.8mo	$403	+$2,294 whole if assigned	4.2% whole ~18 Nov on 🎯
SPY ↗ ⚐ ▼ DOWN -0.5% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	12	$758.21	$703.43	🎯 12 × $766 14 Sep (4d) $1,416 cyc · $10,620/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 31% above floor +$75,088	12 × $776 18 Sep (8d) $816 cyc · $3,060/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$87,088	11 × $771 18 Sep (8d) $1,705 cyc · $6,394/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 31% above floor +$74,331	12 × $769 18 Sep (8d) $2,496 cyc · $9,360/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:45%hist 39% above floor +$78,688	12 × $763 18 Sep (8d) $5,256 cyc · $19,710/mo 63% survhist 65% · T:75%hist 64% above floor +$71,488	$5,271	+$75,088 whole if assigned	0.0%
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ETHA Main:1299	50	$18.28	$17.33 BE	+5.5% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
HIMS Main:1299	15	$27.53	$17.47 BE	+57.6% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
COIN-LC500 ↗ ▼ DOWN -2.6% Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$171.27	$351.02	25 × $350 18 Sep (8d) $25 cyc · $94/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 3%	25 × $197.50 18 Sep (8d) $2,575 cyc · $9,656/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	🎯 21 × $190 18 Sep (8d) $3,864 cyc · $14,490/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 31%	22 × $185 18 Sep (8d) $5,940 cyc · $22,275/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:45%hist 39%	21 × $175 18 Sep (8d) $11,655 cyc · $43,706/mo 60% survhist 65% · T:82%hist 79%	$12,888	-$334,275 (212.2% IC)	105.0%
GLXY ↗ ⚐ ▼ DOWN -4.2% Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$24.12	$34.70	25 × $33.50 25 Sep (15d) $25 cyc · $50/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:8%hist 3%	25 × $28.50 18 Sep (8d) $500 cyc · $1,875/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 13%	25 × $27.50 18 Sep (8d) $700 cyc · $2,625/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:36%hist 31%	🎯 25 × $26.50 18 Sep (8d) $1,075 cyc · $4,031/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:47%hist 39%	25 × $25 18 Sep (8d) $2,125 cyc · $7,969/mo 63% survhist 65% · T:77%hist 64%	$4,837	-$19,414 (351.4% IC)	43.8%
TOTAL (11)	129	following every 🎯 $14,696 cyc · $54,698/mo		$6,991 cyc · $23,051/mo 9 of 11	$7,683 cyc · $28,811/mo	$13,201 cyc · $49,504/mo	$19,787 cyc · $74,201/mo	$39,157 cyc · $146,839/mo	$91,550	-$495,015

Spot \ Time	≥ 12d left	3-11d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $193.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $193-195.61	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $195.61	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$195.00 (2.1σ)	$295	$1,536	+$21,448	+$4,995
+2.5%	$199.87 (2.3σ)	$-2,142	$1,465	+$21,378	+$4,995
+5%	$204.75 (2.5σ)	$-4,580	$1,394	+$21,307	+$4,995

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$170	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$1.72/sh	+$860 cycle +$1,260 [+$764…+$1,269] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$9,637 NOT cap gain +$10,276
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$176	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.94/sh	+$470 cycle +$870 [+$166…+$820] · 85% credit	73% surv 64%	-$7,080 NOT cap gain +$12,833
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$174	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$0.29/sh	+$147 cycle +$547 [-$82…+$443] · 68% credit	71% surv 61%	-$8,616 NOT cap gain +$11,296
Max even-money escape in the band	~$179	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.11/sh	+$53 cycle +$453 [-$320…+$384] · 52% credit	76% surv 69%	-$6,284 NOT cap gain +$13,629
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$181	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.58/sh	-$290 cycle +$110 [-$733…+$13] · 26% credit	78% surv 73%	-$5,412 NOT cap gain +$14,500
budget: banked $400 debit $290 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,066/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $168.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $168-170.81	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $170.81	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$170.00 (1.5σ)	$400	$-10,497	+$9,416	+$100
+2.5%	$174.25 (1.8σ)	$-1,725	$-10,558	+$9,354	-$2,025
+5%	$178.50 (2.1σ)	$-3,850	$-10,620	+$9,292	-$4,150
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (2.7σ)	$-7,600	$-10,729	+$9,184	-$7,400

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$165	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$1.82/sh	+$909 cycle +$1,574 [+$722…+$1,194] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$11,750 NOT cap gain +$8,163
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$171	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.03/sh	+$517 cycle +$1,182 [+$106…+$695] · 81% credit	73% surv 64%	-$9,195 NOT cap gain +$10,718
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$169	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$0.39/sh	+$197 cycle +$862 [-$113…+$349] · 61% credit	71% surv 61%	-$10,729 NOT cap gain +$9,184
Max even-money escape in the band	~$174	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.20/sh	+$101 cycle +$766 [-$382…+$260] · 42% credit	76% surv 69%	-$8,398 NOT cap gain +$11,515
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$179	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.10/sh	-$550 cycle +$115 [-$1,180…-$437] · 11% credit	81% surv 77%	-$6,621 NOT cap gain +$13,291
budget: banked $665 debit $550 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$115 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,527/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $163.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $163-166.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $166.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$165.00 (1.1σ)	$665	$-12,659	+$7,253	+$365
+2.5%	$169.12 (1.4σ)	$-1,397	$-12,719	+$7,193	-$1,697
+5%	$173.25 (1.7σ)	$-3,460	$-12,779	+$7,134	-$3,760
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (2.7σ)	$-9,835	$-12,964	+$6,949	-$9,635

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$160	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$1.91/sh	+$764 cycle +$1,660 [+$552…+$853] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$14,032 NOT cap gain +$5,880
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$166	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.12/sh	+$447 cycle +$1,343 [+$56…+$466] · 81% credit	73% surv 64%	-$11,402 NOT cap gain +$8,511
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$164	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$0.48/sh	+$194 cycle +$1,090 [-$101…+$213] · 55% credit	72% surv 61%	-$12,869 NOT cap gain +$7,044
Max even-money escape in the band	~$169	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$115 cycle +$1,011 [-$337…+$100] · 33% credit	76% surv 69%	-$10,520 NOT cap gain +$9,393
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$179	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.90/sh	-$760 cycle +$136 [-$1,437…-$870] · 0% credit	86% surv 83%	-$6,540 NOT cap gain +$13,372
budget: banked $896 debit $760 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$136 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,405/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $158.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $158-162.26	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $162.26	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$160.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$896	$-14,796	+$5,117	+$656
+2.5%	$164.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-704	$-14,454	+$5,459	-$944
+5%	$168.00 (1.3σ)	$-2,304	$-14,112	+$5,801	-$2,544
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (2.7σ)	$-9,504	$-12,673	+$7,240	-$9,344

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$155	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$1.99/sh	+$995 cycle +$2,845 [+$677…+$886] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$15,334 NOT cap gain +$4,578
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$161	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.19/sh	+$595 cycle +$2,445 [-$21…+$350] · 73% credit	73% surv 65%	-$12,787 NOT cap gain +$7,125
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$159	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$0.57/sh	+$283 cycle +$2,133 [-$175…+$97] · 44% credit	72% surv 61%	-$14,313 NOT cap gain +$5,600
Max even-money escape in the band	~$164	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.36/sh	+$182 cycle +$2,032 [-$536…-$98] · 19% credit	76% surv 69%	-$11,986 NOT cap gain +$7,926
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$184	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$2.89/sh	-$1,446 cycle +$404 [-$2,704…-$1,907]	93% surv 92%	-$3,905 NOT cap gain +$16,007
budget: banked $1,850 debit $1,446 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$404 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $825/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $153.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $153-158.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $158.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$155.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,850	$-16,329	+$3,583	+$1,550
+2.5%	$158.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-88	$-16,385	+$3,527	-$388
+5%	$162.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,025	$-16,442	+$3,471	-$2,325
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (2.7σ)	$-13,650	$-16,779	+$3,134	-$13,450

Spot \ Time	≥ 12d left	3-11d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $272.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $272-276.32	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $276.32	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$275.00 (1.3σ)	$625	$3,367	+$13,252	+$4,020
+2.5%	$281.88 (1.7σ)	$-2,812	$3,528	+$13,413	+$4,020
+5%	$288.75 (2.1σ)	$-6,250	$3,690	+$13,575	+$4,020

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$272	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.22/sh	+$610 cycle +$915 [+$366…+$1,010] · 90% credit	72% surv 61%	+$1,888 SAFE cap gain +$11,773
reaches SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$268	21 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.09/sh	+$43 cycle +$348 [-$19…+$419] · 71% credit	67% surv 51%	-$836 NOT cap gain +$9,049
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$277	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.60/sh	-$301 cycle +$4 [-$702…+$7] · 26% credit	78% surv 72%	+$3,594 SAFE cap gain +$13,479
budget: banked $305 debit $301 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,848/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $264.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $265-268.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $268.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$267.50 (1.5σ)	$305	$-879	+$9,006	-$50
+2.5%	$274.19 (2.1σ)	$-3,039	$-722	+$9,163	-$50
+5%	$280.88 (2.7σ)	$-6,382	$-565	+$9,320	-$50

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$267	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.36/sh	+$681 cycle +$1,291 [+$302…+$851] · 90% credit	72% surv 61%	-$354 NOT cap gain +$9,531
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$262	21 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.21/sh	+$105 cycle +$715 [-$52…+$302] · 64% credit	67% surv 51%	-$3,087 NOT cap gain +$6,798
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$272	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.46/sh	-$232 cycle +$378 [-$826…-$114] · 19% credit	78% surv 71%	+$1,350 SAFE cap gain +$11,235
budget: banked $610 debit $232 (38% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$378 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,899/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $259.88	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $260-263.78	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $263.78	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$262.50 (1.0σ)	$610	$-3,192	+$6,693	+$255
+2.5%	$269.06 (1.6σ)	$-2,671	$-3,038	+$6,847	-$2,245
+5%	$275.62 (2.2σ)	$-5,952	$-2,883	+$7,002	-$2,245

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$264	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.43/sh	+$715 cycle +$1,595 [+$267…+$803] · 90% credit	72% surv 61%	-$1,359 NOT cap gain +$8,526
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$260	21 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.27/sh	+$135 cycle +$1,015 [-$77…+$238] · 58% credit	67% surv 51%	-$4,096 NOT cap gain +$5,789
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$274	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.68/sh	-$839 cycle +$41 [-$1,611…-$899] · 1% credit	83% surv 80%	+$2,322 SAFE cap gain +$12,207
budget: banked $880 debit $839 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$41 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,857/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $257.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $257-261.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $261.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$260.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$880	$-4,231	+$5,654	+$525
+2.5%	$266.50 (1.4σ)	$-2,370	$-4,078	+$5,807	-$2,725
+5%	$273.00 (2.0σ)	$-5,620	$-3,925	+$5,960	-$3,225

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$257	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.62/sh	+$650 cycle +$2,350 [+$127…+$410] · 87% credit	72% surv 61%	-$4,460 NOT cap gain +$5,425
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$252	21 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.44/sh	+$177 cycle +$1,877 [-$74…+$56] · 43% credit	67% surv 51%	-$7,089 NOT cap gain +$2,796
Max even-money escape in the band	~$257	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$0.09/sh	+$37 cycle +$1,737 [-$438…-$173] · 9% credit	73% surv 63%	-$5,072 NOT cap gain +$4,813
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$269	25 Sep 2026	11d left	-$2.89/sh	-$1,157 cycle +$543 [-$2,167…-$1,535]	90% surv 89%	+$115 SAFE cap gain +$10,000
budget: banked $1,700 debit $1,157 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$543 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $982/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $249.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $250-256.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $256.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 22 active short call(s) 2 watch · 3 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (15d)

$524.14

$565.44

$16.38

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (71d)

$650.71

$687.21

$47.15

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (8d)

$89.00

$101.31

$0.33

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC45

Neville:0865

20x $60C 18 Sep 2026 (8d)

$43.91

$60.40

$0.08

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (22d)

$171.01

$229.43

$1.41

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLXY

Main:1299

100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 (1d)

$24.12

$30.13

$0.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC670

Joint:1782

1x $1100C 25 Sep 2026 (15d)

$995.68

$1,125.39

$14.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (22d)

$101.81

$118.98

$2.29

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)

$133.31

$155.41

$6.55

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)

$326.93

$359.26

$4.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)

$101.67

$112.23

$0.94

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)

$43.91

$55.88

$1.60

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)

$43.91

$55.88

$1.60

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)

$89.29

$127.58

$1.43

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMD

Neville:0865

2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (43d)

$509.56

$593.17

$15.82

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SNDK

Neville:0865

1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (43d)

$1,710.77

$2,085.25

$98.45

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (43d)

$995.68

$1,252.67

$27.90

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (43d)

$995.68

$1,284.32

$22.27

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (71d)

$172.78

$224.53

$3.70

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (71d)

$129.37

$180.96

$6.92

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (71d)

$129.37

$180.95

$6.92

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (99d)

$400.24

$476.90

$4.85

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$24.07	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 54.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$24.07	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$24.07	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 63.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.64	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.0% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$35.84	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.2% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$43.52	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 38.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$11.27	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$11.27	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 72.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 21 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMD	Neville:0865	2	$489.91	2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (43d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (22d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (8d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (15d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (99d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (36d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (36d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (22d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $60C 18 Sep 2026 (8d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (71d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (71d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (71d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC670	Joint:1782	1	$792.36	1x $1100C 25 Sep 2026 (15d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (43d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (43d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (36d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (71d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (43d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2590 of 2752 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	180	56%	63%	+7pp
60-70%	362	64%	62%	-3pp
70-80%	460	76%	82%	+6pp
80-90%	600	85%	84%	-0pp
90-100%	988	94%	95%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2590 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 9 graded weeks; last week 0.93x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 165 real buyback(s) recorded · 83 roll(s), net +$0.59/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 83 real rolls: buyback $6.77/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.59/sh (58 of 83 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-09-10 21:51

Gross FIGHT income	$402/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-87%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$402/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($13,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-19,923

Gross FIGHT income	$1,500/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-52%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,500/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,635
… as % of IC ($13,500)	71.4%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	22.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-19,918

Gross FIGHT income	$2,494/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-21%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	40% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,494/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,870
… as % of IC ($13,500)	87.9%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	27.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-19,923

Gross FIGHT income	$3,360/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,480/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,132
… as % of IC ($13,500)	82.5%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	25.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-15,940

Gross FIGHT income	$6,938/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	+120%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	110% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,938/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,685
… as % of IC ($13,500)	116.2%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	36.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-19,938

Gross FIGHT income	$852/mo
vs 50% target ($3,098/mo)	-72%
vs normal income ($6,196/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$60/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($33,960)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-9,920

Gross FIGHT income	$1,144/mo
vs 50% target ($3,098/mo)	-63%
vs normal income ($6,196/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$351/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$987
… as % of IC ($33,960)	2.9%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	1.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-9,908

Gross FIGHT income	$2,288/mo
vs 50% target ($3,098/mo)	-26%
vs normal income ($6,196/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,495/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,182
… as % of IC ($33,960)	9.4%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	6.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-9,915

Gross FIGHT income	$3,300/mo
vs 50% target ($3,098/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($6,196/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,508/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,162
… as % of IC ($33,960)	12.3%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	8.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-9,903

Gross FIGHT income	$6,375/mo
vs 50% target ($3,098/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($6,196/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,776/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,333
… as % of IC ($33,960)	15.7%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	10.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-7,958

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$252.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,700	$-7,266	+$2,619	+$1,416
+2.5%	$258.81 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-825	$-6,486	+$3,399	-$1,109
+5%	$265.12 (1.3σ)	$-3,350	$-5,707	+$4,178	-$3,634
SS (= V-bounce)	$267.92 (1.5σ)	$-4,468	$-5,404	+$4,481	-$4,584

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$345	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$2.98/sh	+$298 cycle +$413 [+$231…+$451] · 97% credit	66% surv 52%	-$28,013 NOT cap gain +$4,534
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$350	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$0.56/sh	+$56 cycle +$171 [-$57…+$192] · 63% credit	69% surv 58%	-$27,679 NOT cap gain +$4,869
Max even-money escape in the band	~$358	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.67/sh	+$67 cycle +$182 [-$90…+$214] · 59% credit	73% surv 64%	-$26,849 NOT cap gain +$5,699
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Gross FIGHT income	$431/mo
vs 50% target ($1,350/mo)	-68%
vs normal income ($2,700/mo)	16% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$349/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,616
… as % of IC ($12,800)	207.9%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	55.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.9 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-32,573

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $341.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $342-346.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $346.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$345.00 (1.4σ)	$115	$-28,311	+$4,237	+$110
+2.5%	$353.62 (1.8σ)	$-747	$-28,232	+$4,315	-$752
+5%	$362.25 (2.1σ)	$-1,610	$-28,154	+$4,394	-$1,615
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (10.8σ)	$-24,185	$-26,099	+$6,448	-$6,890

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$335	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$5.33/sh	+$533 cycle +$783 [+$396…+$653] · 99% credit	68% surv 55%	-$28,703 NOT cap gain +$3,845
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$332	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$3.23/sh	+$323 cycle +$573 [+$217…+$432] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$29,217 NOT cap gain +$3,331
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$338	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$0.82/sh	+$82 cycle +$332 [-$73…+$152] · 58% credit	70% surv 59%	-$28,882 NOT cap gain +$3,666
Max even-money escape in the band	~$345	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.92/sh	+$92 cycle +$342 [-$126…+$160] · 51% credit	73% surv 65%	-$28,053 NOT cap gain +$4,494
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$355	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.64/sh	-$164 cycle +$86 [-$434…-$107] · 14% credit	78% surv 73%	-$27,218 NOT cap gain +$5,329
budget: banked $250 debit $164 (66% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,174/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$938/mo
vs 50% target ($1,350/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($2,700/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$855/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,731
… as % of IC ($12,800)	216.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	57.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.3 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-32,593

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $329.18	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $329-335.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $335.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$332.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$250	$-29,539	+$3,008	+$245
+2.5%	$340.81 (1.3σ)	$-581	$-29,464	+$3,084	-$586
+5%	$349.12 (1.6σ)	$-1,412	$-29,388	+$3,159	-$1,418
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (10.8σ)	$-25,300	$-27,214	+$5,333	-$8,005

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$328	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$5.46/sh	+$546 cycle +$956 [+$361…+$571] · 99% credit	68% surv 55%	-$29,349 NOT cap gain +$3,199
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$325	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$3.36/sh	+$336 cycle +$746 [+$191…+$364] · 97% credit	66% surv 52%	-$29,861 NOT cap gain +$2,686
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$330	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$0.96/sh	+$96 cycle +$506 [-$93…+$93] · 47% credit	70% surv 59%	-$29,526 NOT cap gain +$3,022
Max even-money escape in the band	~$338	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.05/sh	+$105 cycle +$515 [-$159…+$93] · 42% credit	73% surv 65%	-$28,698 NOT cap gain +$3,850
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$358	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$3.83/sh	-$383 cycle +$27 [-$764…-$432] · 1% credit	83% surv 80%	-$27,005 NOT cap gain +$5,543
budget: banked $410 debit $383 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$27 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $776/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$1,537/mo
vs 50% target ($1,350/mo)	+14%
vs normal income ($2,700/mo)	57% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,455/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,321
… as % of IC ($12,800)	221.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	58.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-32,563

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $321.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $322-329.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $329.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.