FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 8 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 5 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 1 uncapped above water | 25 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $54,600/mo (51% of normal target)

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				TUNED	RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Tuned	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	50	$16.86	$20.71	50 × $2010d $550 cyc · $1,650/mo 91% surv · T:19%	37 × $18.50 $296 cyc · $2,960/mo 90% surv · T:21%	🎯 32 × $18 $448 cyc · $4,480/mo 82% surv · T:24%	38 × $17.50 $912 cyc · $9,120/mo 70% surv · T:61%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$8,231 (26.3% IC)	22.8%
CLSK ↗⚡ER 17d RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	25	$14.70	$18.82	25 × $17 $175 cyc · $1,750/mo 91% surv · T:18%	23 × $17 $161 cyc · $1,610/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯 21 × $16.50 $252 cyc · $2,520/mo 86% surv · T:17%	25 × $16 $500 cyc · $5,000/mo 80% surv · T:42%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$4,621 (49.4% IC)	28.0%
COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	20	$75.29	$96.47	20 × $80 $200 cyc · $2,000/mo 91% surv · T:18%	9 × $78 $225 cyc · $2,250/mo 81% surv · T:37%	🎯 14 × $78 $350 cyc · $3,500/mo 81% surv · T:25%	17 × $77 $680 cyc · $6,800/mo 72% surv · T:57%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$795	-$25,513 (44.9% IC)	28.1%
IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	20	$42.45	$55.62	—	19 × $49 $437 cyc · $4,370/mo 89% surv · T:23%	🎯 19 × $47.50 $665 cyc · $6,650/mo 83% surv · T:22%	20 × $45.50 $1,320 cyc · $13,200/mo 73% surv · T:56%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$14,768 (46.2% IC)	31.0%
IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	20	$42.45	$55.62	—	19 × $49 $437 cyc · $4,370/mo 89% surv · T:23%	🎯 19 × $47.50 $665 cyc · $6,650/mo 83% surv · T:22%	20 × $45.50 $1,320 cyc · $13,200/mo 73% surv · T:56%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$14,768 (46.2% IC)	31.0%
UAMY ↗⚡ER 25d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	25	$5.37	$13.03	🎯 25 × $7.5024d $250 cyc · $312/mo 90% surv · T:42%	13 × $6 $195 cyc · $585/mo 75% surv · T:52%	20 × $6 $300 cyc · $900/mo 75% surv · T:52%	20 × $5.50 $600 cyc · $1,800/mo 59% surv · T:89%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$13,565 (226.1% IC)	142.6%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗⚡ER 7d Main:1299 · This Fri	125	$23.93	$35.46	125 × $27.50 $1,875 cyc · $18,750/mo 91% surv · T:19%	106 × $27.50 $1,590 cyc · $15,900/mo 91% surv · T:19%	🎯 120 × $26.50 $2,400 cyc · $24,000/mo 84% surv · T:19%	98 × $25 $4,802 cyc · $48,020/mo 68% surv · T:66%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$879	-$105,114 (380.5% IC)	48.2%
MSTR-LC180 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 10d Joint:1782 · This Fri	10	$99.38	$153.74	10 × $110 $520 cyc · $5,200/mo 90% surv · T:19%	10 × $112 $380 cyc · $3,800/mo 94% surv · T:13%	🎯 10 × $109 $590 cyc · $5,900/mo 88% surv · T:14%	10 × $105 $1,210 cyc · $12,100/mo 76% surv · T:49%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$373	-$44,146 (83.3% IC)	54.7%
TOTAL (8)	295	following every 🎯 $5,620 cyc · $54,012/mo		$3,570 cyc · $29,662/mo 6 of 8	$3,721 cyc · $35,845/mo	$5,670 cyc · $54,600/mo	$11,344 cyc · $109,240/mo		$2,047	-$230,726

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$20	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,037 cycle +$1,587 [+$838…+$1,646] · 99% credit	66% surv 53%	-$6,083 NOT cap gain +$15,717
Max even-money escape in the band	~$21	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.10/sh	+$518 cycle +$1,068 [+$71…+$1,117] · 78% credit	74% surv 66%	-$1,472 NOT cap gain +$20,328
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$21	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.01/sh	+$51 cycle +$601 [-$331…+$527] · 52% credit	71% surv 62%	-$4,189 NOT cap gain +$17,611
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$22	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.07/sh	-$366 cycle +$184 [-$993…+$175] · 32% credit	77% surv 71%	-$106 NOT cap gain +$21,694
budget: banked $550 debit $366 (66% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$184 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $5,000/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $19.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $20-20.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $20.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$20.00 (1.4σ)	$550	$-7,120	+$14,680	+$11,850
+2.5%	$20.50 (1.6σ)	$-1,950	$-7,370	+$14,430	+$11,850
+5%	$21.00 (1.9σ)	$-4,450	$-7,620	+$14,180	+$11,850

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (37 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.32/sh	+$1,186 cycle +$1,482 [+$853…+$1,359] · 96% credit	65% surv 52%	-$13,926 NOT cap gain +$7,874
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.21/sh	+$762 cycle +$1,058 [+$10…+$872] · 76% credit	80% surv 75%	-$7,502 NOT cap gain +$14,298
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$19	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$438 cycle +$734 [-$86…+$548] · 69% credit	73% surv 64%	-$12,626 NOT cap gain +$9,174
Max even-money escape in the band	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$313 cycle +$609 [-$562…+$405] · 53% credit	82% surv 79%	-$6,351 NOT cap gain +$15,449
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$22	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.01/sh	-$24 cycle +$272 [-$989…+$47] · 28% credit	84% surv 82%	-$5,088 NOT cap gain +$16,712
budget: banked $296 debit $24 (8% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$272 cash · rolled 37 ct earn ≈ $1,942/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $18.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.50 (1.3σ)	$296	$-15,112	+$6,688	+$3,108
+2.5%	$18.96 (1.7σ)	$-1,415	$-15,343	+$6,457	+$3,108
+5%	$19.43 (2.1σ)	$-3,127	$-15,574	+$6,226	+$3,108

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (32 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.32/sh	+$1,033 cycle +$1,481 [+$746…+$1,136] · 98% credit	65% surv 52%	-$15,657 NOT cap gain +$6,143
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.20/sh	+$654 cycle +$1,102 [+$22…+$685] · 76% credit	80% surv 75%	-$10,258 NOT cap gain +$11,542
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$19	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$387 cycle +$835 [-$48…+$434] · 71% credit	73% surv 64%	-$14,575 NOT cap gain +$7,225
Max even-money escape in the band	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$270 cycle +$718 [-$449…+$275] · 46% credit	82% surv 79%	-$9,292 NOT cap gain +$12,508
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$22	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.11/sh	-$337 cycle +$111 [-$1,203…-$370] · 3% credit	88% surv 87%	-$5,849 NOT cap gain +$15,951
budget: banked $448 debit $337 (75% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 32 ct earn ≈ $1,201/mo while parked; 18 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$448	$-16,690	+$5,110	+$1,280
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.3σ)	$-992	$-16,915	+$4,885	+$1,280
+5%	$18.90 (1.7σ)	$-2,432	$-17,140	+$4,660	+$1,280

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (38 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.32/sh	+$1,233 cycle +$2,145 [+$788…+$1,263] · 97% credit	65% surv 52%	-$16,487 NOT cap gain +$5,313
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.20/sh	+$767 cycle +$1,679 [-$144…+$619] · 68% credit	80% surv 76%	-$9,891 NOT cap gain +$11,909
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$467 cycle +$1,379 [-$174…+$387] · 63% credit	73% surv 64%	-$15,141 NOT cap gain +$6,659
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$317 cycle +$1,229 [-$727…+$132] · 38% credit	82% surv 79%	-$8,691 NOT cap gain +$13,109
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$23	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.20/sh	-$762 cycle +$150 [-$2,151…-$1,004]	91% surv 91%	-$1,520 NOT cap gain +$20,280
budget: banked $912 debit $762 (84% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$150 cash · rolled 38 ct earn ≈ $879/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.76	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.76	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$912	$-17,720	+$4,080	+$0
+2.5%	$17.94 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-750	$-17,939	+$3,861	+$0
+5%	$18.38 (1.2σ)	$-2,413	$-18,157	+$3,643	+$0

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$391 cycle +$871 [+$211…+$340] · 96% credit	65% surv 52%	-$17,487 NOT cap gain +$4,313
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.30/sh	+$357 cycle +$837 [+$26…+$277] · 78% credit	77% surv 71%	-$16,373 NOT cap gain +$5,427
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$149 cycle +$629 [-$106…+$85] · 54% credit	73% surv 65%	-$17,281 NOT cap gain +$4,519
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$98 cycle +$578 [-$314…+$1] · 25% credit	83% surv 80%	-$15,932 NOT cap gain +$5,868
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$22	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.20/sh	-$236 cycle +$244 [-$775…-$362]	92% surv 91%	-$14,516 NOT cap gain +$7,284
budget: banked $480 debit $236 (49% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$244 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $266/mo while parked; 38 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$480	$-17,878	+$3,922	-$408
+2.5%	$17.42 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-30	$-18,090	+$3,710	-$408
+5%	$17.85 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-540	$-18,303	+$3,497	-$408

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.48/sh	+$1,197 cycle +$1,372 [+$1,130…+$1,437] · 99% credit	67% surv 53%	-$1,728 NOT cap gain +$6,547
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$422 cycle +$597 [+$36…+$597] · 76% credit	81% surv 78%	+$4,922 SAFE cap gain +$13,197
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$125 cycle +$300 [-$191…+$253] · 58% credit	76% surv 70%	+$125 SAFE cap gain +$8,400
Max even-money escape in the band	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.06/sh	+$142 cycle +$317 [-$304…+$297] · 52% credit	83% surv 81%	+$5,767 SAFE cap gain +$14,042
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.03/sh	-$80 cycle +$95 [-$571…+$60] · 33% credit	85% surv 83%	+$6,670 SAFE cap gain +$14,945
budget: banked $175 debit $80 (46% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$95 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $1,683/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (1.6σ)	$175	$-2,925	+$5,350	+$50
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.9σ)	$-887	$-3,031	+$5,244	-$1,012
+5%	$17.85 (2.2σ)	$-1,950	$-3,137	+$5,138	-$2,075
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.3σ)	$-9,175	$-3,860	+$4,415	-$9,300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.48/sh	+$1,101 cycle +$1,262 [+$1,003…+$1,304] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$1,828 NOT cap gain +$6,447
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$388 cycle +$549 [+$23…+$530] · 76% credit	81% surv 78%	+$4,884 SAFE cap gain +$13,159
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$115 cycle +$276 [-$185…+$231] · 55% credit	76% surv 70%	+$111 SAFE cap gain +$8,386
Max even-money escape in the band	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.06/sh	+$130 cycle +$291 [-$307…+$264] · 52% credit	83% surv 81%	+$5,751 SAFE cap gain +$14,026
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.03/sh	-$74 cycle +$87 [-$572…+$51] · 30% credit	85% surv 83%	+$6,612 SAFE cap gain +$14,887
budget: banked $161 debit $74 (46% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$87 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $1,548/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (1.6σ)	$161	$-2,929	+$5,346	+$46
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.9σ)	$-816	$-2,950	+$5,325	-$931
+5%	$17.85 (2.2σ)	$-1,794	$-2,971	+$5,304	-$1,909
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.3σ)	$-8,441	$-3,116	+$5,159	-$8,556

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (21 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.46/sh	+$959 cycle +$1,211 [+$836…+$1,092] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$2,994 NOT cap gain +$5,281
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.13/sh	+$279 cycle +$531 [-$155…+$379] · 65% credit	82% surv 79%	+$3,751 SAFE cap gain +$12,026
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$66 cycle +$318 [-$274…+$151] · 46% credit	77% surv 71%	-$962 NOT cap gain +$7,313
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$56 cycle +$308 [-$438…+$146] · 41% credit	84% surv 81%	+$4,653 SAFE cap gain +$12,928
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.06/sh	-$121 cycle +$131 [-$654…-$39] · 20% credit	85% surv 84%	+$5,601 SAFE cap gain +$13,876
budget: banked $252 debit $121 (48% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $1,276/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.34	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.50 (1.3σ)	$252	$-3,953	+$4,322	+$147
+2.5%	$16.91 (1.6σ)	$-614	$-3,891	+$4,384	-$719
+5%	$17.32 (1.9σ)	$-1,480	$-3,829	+$4,446	-$1,585
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.3σ)	$-8,652	$-3,317	+$4,958	-$8,757

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.44/sh	+$1,088 cycle +$1,588 [+$913…+$1,225] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$3,762 NOT cap gain +$4,513
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.18/sh	+$462 cycle +$962 [-$77…+$516] · 71% credit	80% surv 77%	+$1,912 SAFE cap gain +$10,187
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.10/sh	+$248 cycle +$748 [-$337…+$281] · 49% credit	83% surv 80%	+$2,823 SAFE cap gain +$11,098
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.01/sh	+$34 cycle +$534 [-$422…+$53] · 31% credit	77% surv 71%	-$1,891 NOT cap gain +$6,384
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$0.16/sh	-$409 cycle +$91 [-$1,160…-$451]	87% surv 85%	+$3,291 SAFE cap gain +$11,566
budget: banked $500 debit $409 (82% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $1,489/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$500	$-4,850	+$3,425	+$375
+2.5%	$16.40 (1.2σ)	$-500	$-4,950	+$3,325	-$625
+5%	$16.80 (1.5σ)	$-1,500	$-5,050	+$3,225	-$1,625
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.3σ)	$-11,350	$-6,035	+$2,240	-$11,475

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.50/sh	+$1,253 cycle +$1,378 [+$1,185…+$1,536] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$597 NOT cap gain +$7,678
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.21/sh	+$515 cycle +$640 [+$140…+$747] · 78% credit	81% surv 77%	+$6,090 SAFE cap gain +$14,365
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$19	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.07/sh	+$173 cycle +$298 [-$148…+$340] · 64% credit	76% surv 70%	+$1,248 SAFE cap gain +$9,523
Max even-money escape in the band	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.09/sh	+$221 cycle +$346 [-$230…+$431] · 59% credit	83% surv 80%	+$6,921 SAFE cap gain +$15,196
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$22	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.00/sh	-$12 cycle +$113 [-$525…+$186] · 43% credit	84% surv 82%	+$7,813 SAFE cap gain +$16,088
budget: banked $125 debit $12 (10% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$113 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $1,854/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 25 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 2 watch

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

META

Main:1299

3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$646.10

$653.94

$42.23

$26.41

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$371.20

$378.34

$1.16

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPY

Neville:0865

12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (6d)

$744.89

$758.65

$0.87

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$173.76

$181.61

$3.07

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $96.5C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$93.01

$97.00

$0.53

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $212.5C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$204.80

$213.74

$1.39

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$162.70

$172.10

$2.06

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$99.34

$106.34

$1.08

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NEM

Main:1299

5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$90.72

$97.96

$0.76

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$390.84

$425.13

$9.74

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$322.23

$355.09

$1.89

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $134C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$121.21

$135.04

$2.03

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$162.70

$180.52

$0.79

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$75.59

$84.96

$0.88

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RKLB

RetireInc:7291

6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$66.90

$76.39

$1.07

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

ENPH

RetireInc:7291

10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$40.02

$45.56

$0.77

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

APP

RetireInc:7291

1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$425.73

$486.90

$2.44

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$101.39

$117.62

$1.48

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$904.00

$1,047.99

$5.67

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$354.32

$385.01

$4.89

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$250.19

$283.10

$1.54

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$904.00

$1,069.99

$17.05

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC145

RetireInc:7291

3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$162.70

$193.34

$2.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC45

Neville:0865

20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d)

$42.43

$55.87

$0.39

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC50

RetireInc:7291

20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d)

$42.43

$55.85

$0.39

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER 2d	Neville:0865	5	$354.32	$382.57	8.0%	$385 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · 91% surv	18%	$615	$6,150/mo (58%)	$10,588/mo	sell 5x $385 CC
MARA-LC40 ↗⚡ER 8d	Main:1299	200	$11.82	$14.54	23.0%	$15 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · 85% surv	33%	$5,600	$7,000/mo (23%)	$31,059/mo	sell 200x $15 CC
GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER 2d	Joint:1782	5	$354.32	$346.80	0.0%	$375 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · 83% surv	35%	$1,275	$12,750/mo (120%)	$10,588/mo	sell 5x $375 CC
RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 10d	Joint:1782	50	$20.22	$23.07	14.1%	$23.50 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · 82% surv	37%	$1,900	$5,700/mo (42%)	$13,676/mo	sell 50x $23.50 CC
NOW ↗⚡ER 2d	Main:1299	10	$104.22	$113.12	8.5%	$116 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · 82% surv	38%	$2,370	$23,700/mo (167%)	$14,171/mo	sell 10x $116 CC

UNCAPPED, ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner)

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Headroom
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$32.87	$17.47	+88.2%

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$16.86	$39.13	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$16.86	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 44.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$16.86	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 62.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.53	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 16.2% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$37.11	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$11.82	$22.69	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$11.82	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 51.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$11.82	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.2% below BE SS

CAPPED: 25 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$56.15	10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $96C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $212C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $134C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (6d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 887 of 1601 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	71	55%	85%	+29pp
60-70%	115	64%	88%	+24pp
70-80%	162	77%	98%	+22pp
80-90%	199	84%	99%	+15pp
90-100%	340	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 75 real buyback(s) recorded · 18 roll(s), net +$0.84/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 --all | 2026-07-21 11:59

Gross FIGHT income	$1,650/mo
vs 50% target ($4,456/mo)	-63%
vs normal income ($8,912/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,166/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,010
… as % of IC ($31,250)	9.6%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	4.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)	$-21,875

Gross FIGHT income	$2,960/mo
vs 50% target ($4,456/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($8,912/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,362/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,889
… as % of IC ($31,250)	25.2%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	11.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (37 ct)	$-16,150

Gross FIGHT income	$4,480/mo
vs 50% target ($4,456/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($8,912/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,992/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,231
… as % of IC ($31,250)	26.3%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	11.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (32 ct)	$-13,984

Gross FIGHT income	$9,120/mo
vs 50% target ($4,456/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($8,912/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,300/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,294
… as % of IC ($31,250)	36.1%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	15.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (38 ct)	$-16,644

Gross FIGHT income	$4,800/mo
vs 50% target ($4,456/mo)	+8%
vs normal income ($8,912/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,752/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,974
… as % of IC ($31,250)	12.7%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	5.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$-5,256

Gross FIGHT income	$1,750/mo
vs 50% target ($2,404/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($4,809/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,750/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,377
… as % of IC ($9,350)	46.8%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	16.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-8,362

Gross FIGHT income	$1,610/mo
vs 50% target ($2,404/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($4,809/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,628/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,027
… as % of IC ($9,350)	43.1%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	15.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-7,693

Gross FIGHT income	$2,520/mo
vs 50% target ($2,404/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($4,809/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,555/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,621
… as % of IC ($9,350)	49.4%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	17.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (21 ct)	$-7,024

Gross FIGHT income	$5,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,404/mo)	+108%
vs normal income ($4,809/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,000/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,552
… as % of IC ($9,350)	70.1%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	24.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-8,337

Gross FIGHT income	$1,250/mo
vs 50% target ($2,404/mo)	-48%
vs normal income ($4,809/mo)	26% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,250/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,177
… as % of IC ($9,350)	34.0%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	11.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-8,325

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (2.0σ)	$125	$-1,850	+$6,425	+$0
+2.5%	$17.94 (2.3σ)	$-969	$-1,959	+$6,316	-$1,094
+5%	$18.38 (2.6σ)	$-2,062	$-2,069	+$6,206	-$2,188
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.3σ)	$-7,975	$-2,660	+$5,615	-$8,100

Gross FIGHT income	$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($2,404/mo)	+12%
vs normal income ($4,809/mo)	56% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,841/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,719
… as % of IC ($9,350)	29.1%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	10.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-3,010

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $15-15.84	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $15.84	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$15.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$270	$-6,125	+$2,150	+$225
+2.5%	$15.89 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-79	$-5,602	+$2,673	-$124
+5%	$16.28 (1.1σ)	$-428	$-5,079	+$3,196	-$473
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.3σ)	$-4,446	$949	+$9,224	-$4,491

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$15	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.39/sh	+$236 cycle +$506 [+$168…+$224] · 99% credit	66% surv 53%	-$6,999 NOT cap gain +$1,276
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.24/sh	+$142 cycle +$412 [-$26…+$102] · 69% credit	79% surv 75%	-$1,918 NOT cap gain +$6,357
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$54 cycle +$324 [-$82…+$21] · 39% credit	73% surv 66%	-$5,381 NOT cap gain +$2,894
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$22 cycle +$292 [-$189…-$26] · 16% credit	84% surv 81%	+$212 SAFE cap gain +$8,487
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.28/sh	-$169 cycle +$101 [-$472…-$237]	93% surv 93%	+$6,201 SAFE cap gain +$14,476
budget: banked $270 debit $169 (63% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$101 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $128/mo while parked; 19 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,022
… as % of IC ($9,350)	21.6%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	7.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-2,001

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $15-15.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $15.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$15.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$270	$-7,235	+$1,040	+$240
+2.5%	$15.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$45	$-6,616	+$1,659	+$15
+5%	$15.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-180	$-5,997	+$2,278	-$210
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.3σ)	$-3,174	$2,236	+$10,511	-$3,204

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$14	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.37/sh	+$149 cycle +$405	66% surv 53%	-$7,765 NOT cap gain +$510
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.02/sh	+$8 cycle +$264	76% surv 70%	-$6,106 NOT cap gain +$2,169
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$21 cycle +$277	83% surv 80%	-$1,593 NOT cap gain +$6,682
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$0.30/sh	-$118 cycle +$138	91% surv 90%	-$1,732 NOT cap gain +$6,543
budget: banked $256 debit $118 (46% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$138 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $183/mo while parked; 21 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$2,560/mo
vs 50% target ($2,404/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($4,809/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,745/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,472
… as % of IC ($9,350)	15.7%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	5.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-1,336

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.36	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $14-15.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $15.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$14.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$256	$-7,914	+$361	+$236
+2.5%	$14.86 (≤1σ, normal week)	$111	$-7,693	+$582	+$91
+5%	$15.23 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-34	$-7,023	+$1,252	-$54
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.3σ)	$-2,240	$3,180	+$11,455	-$2,260

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$80	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.82/sh	+$1,631 cycle +$1,831 [+$1,419…+$1,913] · 98% credit	63% surv 51%	-$30,424 NOT cap gain +$10,516
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$81	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.27/sh	+$543 cycle +$743 [+$144…+$767] · 80% credit	67% surv 60%	-$29,281 NOT cap gain +$11,659
Max even-money escape in the band	~$87	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.21/sh	+$417 cycle +$617 [-$105…+$675] · 72% credit	80% surv 77%	-$19,265 NOT cap gain +$21,675
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder