FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 4 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 9 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 1 uncapped above water | 25 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $32,610/mo (51% of normal target)

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				TUNED	RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Tuned	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	20	$76.71	$94.96	20 × $9024d $300 cyc · $375/mo 91% surv · T:18%	17 × $80.50 $1,020 cyc · $3,060/mo 75% surv · T:50%	🎯 18 × $79.50 $1,530 cyc · $4,590/mo 70% surv · T:49%	19 × $77.50 $2,945 cyc · $8,835/mo 57% surv · T:89%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$795	-$26,305 (46.3% IC)	23.8%
UAMY ↗⚡ER 25d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	25	$5.55	$13.02	25 × $7 $125 cyc · $375/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 22 × $6.50 $220 cyc · $660/mo 82% surv · T:53%	17 × $6 $340 cyc · $1,020/mo 69% surv · T:65%	23 × $5.50 $690 cyc · $2,070/mo 52% surv · T:99+%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$14,124 (235.4% IC)	134.6%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗⚡ER 7d Main:1299 · This Fri	125	$25.12	$34.00	125 × $30 $875 cyc · $8,750/mo 96% surv · T:7%	67 × $27.50 $1,340 cyc · $13,400/mo 83% surv · T:36%	🎯 101 × $27.50 $2,020 cyc · $20,200/mo 83% surv · T:24%	78 × $26.50 $4,056 cyc · $40,560/mo 72% surv · T:58%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$879	-$63,582 (230.2% IC)	35.3%
MSTR-LC180 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 10d Joint:1782 · This Fri	10	$101.19	$150.06	10 × $12210d $960 cyc · $2,880/mo 91% surv · T:18%	10 × $114 $470 cyc · $4,700/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯 10 × $112 $680 cyc · $6,800/mo 88% surv · T:15%	10 × $108 $1,390 cyc · $13,900/mo 78% surv · T:45%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$373	-$37,377 (70.5% IC)	48.3%
TOTAL (4)	180	following every 🎯 $4,450 cyc · $32,250/mo		$2,260 cyc · $12,380/mo	$3,050 cyc · $21,820/mo	$4,570 cyc · $32,610/mo	$9,081 cyc · $65,365/mo		$2,047	-$141,388

Spot \ Time	≥ 13d left	3-12d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $89.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $89-90.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $90.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$90.00 (1.5σ)	$300	$-9,995	+$25,205	+$100
+2.5%	$92.25 (1.8σ)	$-4,200	$-10,278	+$24,922	+$100
+5%	$94.50 (2.0σ)	$-8,700	$-10,562	+$24,638	+$100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (17 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$81	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.68/sh	+$1,160 cycle +$2,180 [+$433…+$1,271] · 92% credit	67% surv 56%	-$24,407 NOT cap gain +$10,793
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$80	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.37/sh	+$636 cycle +$1,656 [+$22…+$726] · 76% credit	65% surv 52%	-$26,412 NOT cap gain +$8,788
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$81	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.20/sh	+$346 cycle +$1,366 [-$322…+$397] · 46% credit	66% surv 53%	-$26,158 NOT cap gain +$9,042
Max even-money escape in the band	~$82	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.04/sh	+$64 cycle +$1,084 [-$895…+$58] · 27% credit	69% surv 60%	-$23,629 NOT cap gain +$11,571
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$84	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.22/sh	-$368 cycle +$652 [-$1,350…-$400] · 14% credit	73% surv 66%	-$21,250 NOT cap gain +$13,950
budget: banked $1,020 debit $368 (36% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$652 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $4,846/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $79.69	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $80-81.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $81.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$80.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,020	$-27,048	+$8,152	+$850
+2.5%	$82.51 (1.0σ)	$-2,401	$-26,697	+$8,503	-$2,571
+5%	$84.53 (1.4σ)	$-5,823	$-26,347	+$8,853	-$5,993
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-20,910	$-25,823	+$9,377	-$15,300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$80	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.66/sh	+$1,182 cycle +$2,712 [+$330…+$1,055] · 90% credit	67% surv 56%	-$25,759 NOT cap gain +$9,441
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$80	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.36/sh	+$655 cycle +$2,185 [-$62…+$547] · 68% credit	65% surv 52%	-$27,766 NOT cap gain +$7,434
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$80	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.19/sh	+$351 cycle +$1,881 [-$428…+$201] · 36% credit	66% surv 53%	-$27,527 NOT cap gain +$7,673
Max even-money escape in the band	~$81	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.02/sh	+$39 cycle +$1,569 [-$1,075…-$205] · 19% credit	69% surv 60%	-$25,028 NOT cap gain +$10,172
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$84	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.81/sh	-$1,455 cycle +$75 [-$2,940…-$1,810] · 2% credit	75% surv 71%	-$21,837 NOT cap gain +$13,363
budget: banked $1,530 debit $1,455 (95% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $3,300/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $78.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $79-80.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $80.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$79.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,530	$-28,422	+$6,778	+$1,350
+2.5%	$81.49 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,047	$-28,274	+$6,926	-$2,227
+5%	$83.48 (1.2σ)	$-5,625	$-28,127	+$7,073	-$5,805
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-23,490	$-28,073	+$7,127	-$17,550

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (19 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$78	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.61/sh	+$1,151 cycle +$4,096 [+$6…+$567] · 75% credit	67% surv 56%	-$28,133 NOT cap gain +$7,067
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$78	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.34/sh	+$655 cycle +$3,600 [-$306…+$166] · 43% credit	65% surv 52%	-$30,110 NOT cap gain +$5,090
Max even-money escape in the band	~$79	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.23/sh	+$436 cycle +$3,381 [-$923…-$229] · 17% credit	68% surv 58%	-$27,911 NOT cap gain +$7,289
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$78	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.18/sh	+$338 cycle +$3,283 [-$709…-$181] · 17% credit	66% surv 53%	-$29,883 NOT cap gain +$5,317
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$86	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.48/sh	-$2,810 cycle +$135 [-$5,333…-$3,901]	85% surv 84%	-$18,040 NOT cap gain +$17,160
budget: banked $2,945 debit $2,810 (95% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$135 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,160/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $76.72	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $77-79.28	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $79.28	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$77.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,945	$-30,765	+$4,435	+$2,755
+2.5%	$79.44 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-736	$-30,815	+$4,385	-$926
+5%	$81.38 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-4,418	$-30,865	+$4,335	-$4,608
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-27,265	$-31,518	+$3,682	-$20,995

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$84	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.41/sh	+$830 cycle +$930 [+$486…+$1,680] · 91% credit	65% surv 52%	-$19,672 NOT cap gain +$15,528
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$86	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.37/sh	+$730 cycle +$830 [+$206…+$1,672] · 81% credit	68% surv 58%	-$17,354 NOT cap gain +$17,846
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$85	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.24/sh	+$478 cycle +$578 [+$74…+$1,285] · 79% credit	66% surv 53%	-$19,481 NOT cap gain +$15,719
Max even-money escape in the band	~$87	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.06/sh	+$124 cycle +$224 [-$477…+$1,017] · 56% credit	70% surv 61%	-$16,086 NOT cap gain +$19,114
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $83.66	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $84-84.90	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $84.90	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$84.50 (1.4σ)	$100	$-20,502	+$14,698	-$100
+2.5%	$86.61 (1.7σ)	$-4,125	$-20,768	+$14,432	-$4,325
+5%	$88.73 (2.1σ)	$-8,350	$-21,034	+$14,166	-$8,550
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-17,700	$-21,623	+$13,577	-$11,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$84	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.41/sh	+$819 cycle +$919 [+$497…+$1,637] · 93% credit	65% surv 52%	-$20,619 NOT cap gain +$14,581
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$85	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.36/sh	+$710 cycle +$810 [+$201…+$1,614] · 80% credit	68% surv 58%	-$18,311 NOT cap gain +$16,889
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$84	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.23/sh	+$468 cycle +$568 [+$82…+$1,267] · 78% credit	66% surv 53%	-$20,427 NOT cap gain +$14,773
Max even-money escape in the band	~$86	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.05/sh	+$104 cycle +$204 [-$502…+$940] · 54% credit	70% surv 62%	-$17,043 NOT cap gain +$18,157
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $83.16	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $83-84.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $84.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$84.00 (1.3σ)	$100	$-21,439	+$13,761	-$100
+2.5%	$86.10 (1.7σ)	$-4,100	$-21,703	+$13,497	-$4,300
+5%	$88.20 (2.0σ)	$-8,300	$-21,968	+$13,232	-$8,500
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-18,700	$-22,623	+$12,577	-$12,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$84	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.40/sh	+$809 cycle +$909 [+$377…+$1,603] · 90% credit	65% surv 52%	-$21,567 NOT cap gain +$13,633
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$85	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.34/sh	+$690 cycle +$790 [+$42…+$1,572] · 77% credit	68% surv 58%	-$19,268 NOT cap gain +$15,932
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$84	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.23/sh	+$459 cycle +$559 [-$27…+$1,211] · 73% credit	66% surv 53%	-$21,373 NOT cap gain +$13,827
Max even-money escape in the band	~$86	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.04/sh	+$84 cycle +$184 [-$647…+$919] · 49% credit	70% surv 62%	-$18,000 NOT cap gain +$17,200
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $82.67	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $83-83.90	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $83.90	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$83.50 (1.2σ)	$100	$-22,376	+$12,824	-$100
+2.5%	$85.59 (1.6σ)	$-4,075	$-22,639	+$12,561	-$4,275
+5%	$87.67 (1.9σ)	$-8,250	$-22,902	+$12,298	-$8,450
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-19,700	$-23,623	+$11,577	-$13,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$83	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.40/sh	+$798 cycle +$998 [+$265…+$1,352] · 87% credit	65% surv 52%	-$22,414 NOT cap gain +$12,786
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$84	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.33/sh	+$670 cycle +$870 [-$101…+$1,286] · 72% credit	68% surv 58%	-$20,125 NOT cap gain +$15,075
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$83	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.23/sh	+$451 cycle +$651 [-$150…+$963] · 69% credit	66% surv 53%	-$22,219 NOT cap gain +$12,981
Max even-money escape in the band	~$85	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.03/sh	+$65 cycle +$265 [-$793…+$646] · 44% credit	70% surv 62%	-$18,856 NOT cap gain +$16,344
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $82.17	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $82-83.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $83.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$83.00 (1.1σ)	$200	$-23,213	+$11,987	+$0
+2.5%	$85.07 (1.5σ)	$-3,950	$-23,474	+$11,726	-$4,150
+5%	$87.15 (1.8σ)	$-8,100	$-23,735	+$11,465	-$8,300
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-20,600	$-24,523	+$10,677	-$14,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$82	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.39/sh	+$788 cycle +$1,188 [+$282…+$1,248] · 87% credit	65% surv 52%	-$23,161 NOT cap gain +$12,039
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$84	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.33/sh	+$650 cycle +$1,050 [-$87…+$1,162] · 71% credit	68% surv 58%	-$20,882 NOT cap gain +$14,318
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$83	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.22/sh	+$442 cycle +$842 [-$125…+$895] · 68% credit	66% surv 53%	-$22,964 NOT cap gain +$12,236
Max even-money escape in the band	~$85	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.02/sh	+$46 cycle +$446 [-$784…+$521] · 41% credit	70% surv 62%	-$19,612 NOT cap gain +$15,588
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$86	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.18/sh	-$354 cycle +$46 [-$1,221…+$70] · 27% credit	73% surv 66%	-$18,138 NOT cap gain +$17,062
budget: banked $400 debit $354 (88% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,167/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $81.67	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $82-83.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $83.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$82.50 (1.0σ)	$400	$-23,950	+$11,250	+$200
+2.5%	$84.56 (1.4σ)	$-3,725	$-24,209	+$10,991	-$3,925
+5%	$86.62 (1.7σ)	$-7,850	$-24,469	+$10,731	-$8,050
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-21,400	$-25,323	+$9,877	-$14,800

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$82	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.39/sh	+$778 cycle +$1,278 [+$208…+$1,095] · 86% credit	65% surv 52%	-$24,009 NOT cap gain +$11,191
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$83	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.32/sh	+$630 cycle +$1,130 [-$185…+$913] · 66% credit	68% surv 58%	-$21,739 NOT cap gain +$13,461
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$82	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.22/sh	+$433 cycle +$933 [-$195…+$704] · 62% credit	66% surv 53%	-$23,810 NOT cap gain +$11,390
Max even-money escape in the band	~$84	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.01/sh	+$27 cycle +$527 [-$851…+$286] · 33% credit	70% surv 62%	-$20,468 NOT cap gain +$14,732
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$85	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.19/sh	-$374 cycle +$126 [-$1,294…-$133] · 21% credit	73% surv 66%	-$18,995 NOT cap gain +$16,205
budget: banked $500 debit $374 (75% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$126 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,049/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $81.18	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $81-82.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $82.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 25 active short call(s) 2 TRIPPED · 4 watch · 1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$174.88

$172.10

$8.65

$3.82

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$645.68

$653.94

$39.42

$24.56

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$372.14

$378.34

$1.21

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $212.5C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$207.34

$213.74

$1.24

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$174.88

$180.52

$4.08

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPY

Neville:0865

12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (6d)

$746.20

$758.65

$0.46

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

APP

RetireInc:7291

1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$432.29

$486.90

$1.27

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$101.24

$106.34

$2.15

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $96.5C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$92.87

$97.00

$0.23

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$172.50

$181.61

$2.28

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$398.68

$425.13

$7.15

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NEM

Main:1299

5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$91.50

$97.96

$0.75

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$324.83

$355.09

$2.88

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $134C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$121.29

$135.04

$0.88

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$937.90

$1,047.99

$8.80

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$75.60

$84.96

$0.78

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$102.74

$117.62

$2.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RKLB

RetireInc:7291

6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$66.40

$76.39

$0.46

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

ENPH

RetireInc:7291

10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)

$39.34

$45.56

$0.17

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$348.93

$385.01

$4.70

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC145

RetireInc:7291

3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$174.83

$193.34

$6.10

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$937.90

$1,069.99

$30.75

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)

$248.73

$283.10

$1.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC45

Neville:0865

20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d)

$40.73

$55.87

$1.00

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC50

RetireInc:7291

20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d)

$40.73

$55.85

$1.00

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER 2d	Neville:0865	5	$349.28	$375.99	7.6%	$377.50 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · 96% surv	9%	$825	$8,250/mo (71%)	$11,559/mo	sell 5x $377.50 CC
NOW ↗⚡ER 2d	Main:1299	10	$103.46	$113.65	9.8%	$115 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · 85% surv	30%	$2,250	$22,500/mo (171%)	$13,129/mo	sell 10x $115 CC
BMNR-LC10 ↗	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.01	$20.05	17.9%	$21 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · 86% surv	30%	$1,050	$1,312/mo (13%)	$9,882/mo	sell 50x $21 CC
CLSK ↗⚡ER 17d	RetireInc:7291	25	$14.82	$17.19	16.0%	$17.50 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · 85% surv	32%	$550	$1,650/mo (31%)	$5,250/mo	sell 25x $17.50 CC
RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 10d	Joint:1782	50	$20.41	$21.26	4.2%	$22.50 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · 84% surv	32%	$850	$8,500/mo (59%)	$14,294/mo	sell 50x $22.50 CC
GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER 2d	Joint:1782	5	$349.28	$338.16	0.0%	$365 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · 84% surv	33%	$2,000	$20,000/mo (173%)	$11,559/mo	sell 5x $365 CC
MARA-LC40 ↗⚡ER 8d	Main:1299	200	$11.99	$14.39	20.0%	$14.50 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · 84% surv	34%	$5,800	$10,235/mo (29%)	$34,941/mo	sell 200x $14.50 CC
IREN-LC25-1299 ↗	Main:1299	20	$41.02	$48.76	18.9%	$49 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · 82% surv	39%	$2,260	$6,780/mo (42%)	$15,988/mo	sell 20x $49 CC
IREN-LC25-1782 ↗	Joint:1782	20	$41.02	$48.76	18.9%	$49 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · 82% surv	39%	$2,260	$6,780/mo (42%)	$15,988/mo	sell 20x $49 CC

UNCAPPED, ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner)

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Headroom
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$33.38	$17.47	+91.1%

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$16.98	$39.13	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$16.98	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 43.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$16.98	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.60	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 15.8% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$37.66	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 46.6% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$11.96	$22.69	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$11.96	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 50.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$11.96	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 54.7% below BE SS

CAPPED: 25 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$56.15	10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $96C 24 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (17d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (10d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $212C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $134C 24 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (6d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 887 of 1616 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	71	55%	85%	+29pp
60-70%	115	64%	88%	+24pp
70-80%	162	77%	98%	+22pp
80-90%	199	84%	99%	+15pp
90-100%	340	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 75 real buyback(s) recorded · 18 roll(s), net +$0.84/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 --all | 2026-07-21 21:43

Gross FIGHT income	$375/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	-91%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$375/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,628
… as % of IC ($56,800)	17.0%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	9.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-36,050

Gross FIGHT income	$3,060/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,113/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,569
… as % of IC ($56,800)	41.5%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	23.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.7 mo
Surgical close (17 ct)	$-30,472

Gross FIGHT income	$4,590/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,625/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,305
… as % of IC ($56,800)	46.3%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	26.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-32,310

Gross FIGHT income	$8,835/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,853/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,237
… as % of IC ($56,800)	53.2%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	30.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.4 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)	$-33,867

Gross FIGHT income	$300/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$300/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,828
… as % of IC ($56,800)	36.7%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	20.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,900

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,828
… as % of IC ($56,800)	38.4%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	21.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,750

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,828
… as % of IC ($56,800)	40.2%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	22.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,900

Gross FIGHT income	$600/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	-86%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	7% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$600/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,728
… as % of IC ($56,800)	41.8%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	23.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.7 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,900

Gross FIGHT income	$1,200/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	-73%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,200/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,528
… as % of IC ($56,800)	43.2%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	24.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,900

Gross FIGHT income	$1,500/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	-66%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	17% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,500/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,428
… as % of IC ($56,800)	44.8%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	25.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,950

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$82.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$500	$-24,787	+$10,413	+$300
+2.5%	$84.05 (1.3σ)	$-3,600	$-25,045	+$10,155	-$3,800
+5%	$86.10 (1.7σ)	$-7,700	$-25,303	+$9,897	-$7,900
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-22,300	$-26,223	+$8,977	-$15,700

Gross FIGHT income	$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	-52%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,100/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,228
… as % of IC ($56,800)	46.2%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	26.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,900

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $80.69	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $81-82.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $82.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$81.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$700	$-25,524	+$9,676	+$500
+2.5%	$83.54 (1.2σ)	$-3,375	$-25,780	+$9,420	-$3,575
+5%	$85.58 (1.6σ)	$-7,450	$-26,037	+$9,163	-$7,650
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-23,100	$-27,023	+$8,177	-$16,500

Gross FIGHT income	$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	-39%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	31% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,700/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,028
… as % of IC ($56,800)	47.6%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	26.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.1 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,950

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $80.19	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $80-81.83	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $81.83	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$81.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$900	$-26,261	+$8,939	+$700
+2.5%	$83.02 (1.1σ)	$-3,150	$-26,516	+$8,684	-$3,350
+5%	$85.05 (1.5σ)	$-7,200	$-26,771	+$8,429	-$7,400
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-23,900	$-27,823	+$7,377	-$17,300

Gross FIGHT income	$4,200/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	-4%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	48% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,200/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,528
… as % of IC ($56,800)	50.2%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	28.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.2 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,950

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $79.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $79-81.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $81.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$80.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,400	$-27,635	+$7,565	+$1,200
+2.5%	$82.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,600	$-27,887	+$7,313	-$2,800
+5%	$84.00 (1.3σ)	$-6,600	$-28,139	+$7,061	-$6,800
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-25,400	$-29,323	+$5,877	-$18,800

Gross FIGHT income	$4,560/mo
vs 50% target ($4,394/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($8,788/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,631/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,023
… as % of IC ($56,800)	42.3%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	23.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.7 mo
Surgical close (16 ct)	$-28,760

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $78.21	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $78-80.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $80.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$79.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,520	$-29,349	+$5,851	+$1,360
+2.5%	$80.97 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,640	$-28,807	+$6,393	-$1,800
+5%	$82.95 (1.1σ)	$-4,800	$-28,266	+$6,934	-$4,960
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (2.9σ)	$-21,520	$-26,763	+$8,437	-$16,240