FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

42 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 8 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 4 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 3 uncapped above water | 19 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $49,650/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $16,670/mo · plus $18,327/mo CC-safe on 4 shallow row(s) ⓘ ⚠ 1 negative E[net]
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $58,123 locked in if all 3 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 1 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
GOOG-LC340 ↗ ▲ UP +1.6% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$335.87	$383.91	5 × $385 9 Oct (28d) $415 cyc · $445/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 13%	5 × $355 18 Sep (7d) $345 cyc · $1,479/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	🎯 5 × $350 18 Sep (7d) $555 cyc · $2,379/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 31%	5 × $345 18 Sep (7d) $970 cyc · $4,157/mo 76% survhist 83% · T:49%hist 39%	5 × $340 18 Sep (7d) $1,650 cyc · $7,071/mo 63% survhist 65% · T:74%hist 64%	$24,503	-$16,399 (64.3% IC)	14.3%
APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	1	$312.89	$606.69	—	1 × $345 18 Sep (7d) $120 cyc · $514/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13%	🎯 1 × $335 18 Sep (7d) $255 cyc · $1,093/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 31%	1 × $330 18 Sep (7d) $350 cyc · $1,500/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:46%hist 39%	1 × $317.50 18 Sep (7d) $750 cyc · $3,214/mo 59% survhist 70% · T:84%hist 79%	$2,348	-$26,914 (210.3% IC)	93.9%
IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	20	$43.88	$58.40	20 × $60 9 Oct (28d) $1,000 cyc · $1,071/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13%	20 × $51 18 Sep (7d) $520 cyc · $2,229/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13%	🎯 18 × $49 18 Sep (7d) $900 cyc · $3,857/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 31%	18 × $47.50 18 Sep (7d) $1,296 cyc · $5,554/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:45%hist 39%	18 × $45 18 Sep (7d) $2,646 cyc · $11,340/mo 61% survhist 65% · T:80%hist 79%	$5,005	-$16,015 (266.9% IC)	33.1%
IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	20	$43.88	$66.78	20 × $65 18 Sep (7d) $40 cyc · $171/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3%	20 × $51 18 Sep (7d) $520 cyc · $2,229/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13%	🎯 18 × $49 18 Sep (7d) $900 cyc · $3,857/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 31%	18 × $47.50 18 Sep (7d) $1,296 cyc · $5,554/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:45%hist 39%	18 × $45 18 Sep (7d) $2,646 cyc · $11,340/mo 61% survhist 65% · T:80%hist 79%	$3,610	-$31,096 (227.0% IC)	52.2%
RKLB ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	6	$64.03	$149.71	—	6 × $73 18 Sep (7d) $186 cyc · $797/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13%	🎯 6 × $70 18 Sep (7d) $402 cyc · $1,723/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 31%	5 × $68 18 Sep (7d) $530 cyc · $2,271/mo 75% survhist 83% · T:51%hist 44%	5 × $65 18 Sep (7d) $1,030 cyc · $4,414/mo 58% survhist 70% · T:86%hist 79%	$2,212	-$47,422 (297.7% IC)	133.8%
SPCX ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$148.22	$189.05	5 × $190 9 Oct (28d) $280 cyc · $300/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:9%hist 3%	5 × $165 18 Sep (7d) $255 cyc · $1,093/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 13%	🎯 5 × $160 18 Sep (7d) $495 cyc · $2,121/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:26%hist 26%	4 × $155 18 Sep (7d) $768 cyc · $3,291/mo 75% survhist 83% · T:51%hist 44%	5 × $150 18 Sep (7d) $1,750 cyc · $7,500/mo 58% survhist 70% · T:86%hist 79%	$3,445	-$14,031 (103.9% IC)	27.5%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
AMZN ↗ BORDERLINE 26% ▲ UP +1.8% Joint:1782 · Next Fri	5	$255.84	$270.27	🎯 5 × $275 9 Oct (28d) $1,205 cyc · $1,291/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31% above floor +$2,364 · hole 5.6mo	5 × $270 18 Sep (7d) $250 cyc · $1,071/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 6.7mo	5 × $265 18 Sep (7d) $565 cyc · $2,421/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:36%hist 31% locks −$2,071 · hole 3.0mo	5 × $262.50 18 Sep (7d) $830 cyc · $3,557/mo 75% survhist 83% · T:50%hist 44% locks −$3,056 · hole 2.0mo	5 × $257.50 18 Sep (7d) $1,675 cyc · $7,179/mo 57% survhist 70% · T:87%hist 79% locks −$4,711 · hole 1.0mo	$980	+$2,364 whole if assigned	5.6% whole ~26 Feb on 🎯
COPX ↗ ▲ UP +1.5% Joint:1782 · Next Fri	20	$89.72	$95.49	🎯 20 × $96 18 Sep (7d) $800 cyc · $3,429/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 26% above floor +$1,028 · hole 3.4mo	20 × $100 18 Sep (7d) $200 cyc · $857/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:11%hist 13% above floor +$9,028 · hole 13.5mo	16 × $95 18 Sep (7d) $880 cyc · $3,771/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 31% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 3.1mo	19 × $94 18 Sep (7d) $1,330 cyc · $5,700/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:46%hist 39% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 2.0mo	17 × $91 18 Sep (7d) $2,550 cyc · $10,929/mo 60% survhist 65% · T:82%hist 79% locks −$5,076 · hole 1.1mo	$2,500	+$1,028 whole if assigned	6.4% whole ~21 Dec on 🎯
GOOG-LC300 ↗ ▲ UP +1.6% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	15	$335.87	$344.70	🎯 15 × $347.50 18 Sep (7d) $2,085 cyc · $8,936/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 31% above floor +$4,204 · hole 1.5mo	15 × $355 18 Sep (7d) $1,035 cyc · $4,436/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% above floor +$15,454 · hole 3.0mo	15 × $350 18 Sep (7d) $1,665 cyc · $7,136/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 31% above floor +$7,954 · hole 1.9mo	13 × $345 18 Sep (7d) $2,522 cyc · $10,809/mo 76% survhist 83% · T:49%hist 39% above floor +$394 · hole 1.2mo	15 × $340 18 Sep (7d) $4,950 cyc · $21,214/mo 63% survhist 65% · T:74%hist 64% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 0.6mo	$31,054	+$4,204 whole if assigned	2.6% whole ~26 Oct on 🎯
NVDA ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	10	$221.01	$228.64	🎯 10 × $230 18 Sep (7d) $1,090 cyc · $4,671/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31% above floor +$1,358 · hole 1.6mo	10 × $235 18 Sep (7d) $430 cyc · $1,843/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 13% above floor +$6,358 · hole 4.1mo	9 × $230 18 Sep (7d) $981 cyc · $4,204/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31% above floor +$1,222 · hole 1.8mo	9 × $227.50 18 Sep (7d) $1,485 cyc · $6,364/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:48%hist 39% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 1.2mo	8 × $222.50 18 Sep (7d) $2,760 cyc · $11,829/mo 57% survhist 70% · T:87%hist 79% locks −$2,154 · hole 0.6mo	$403	+$1,358 whole if assigned	3.5% whole ~30 Oct on 🎯
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ETHA Main:1299	50	$19.62	$17.33 BE	+13.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
HIMS Main:1299	15	$26.98	$17.47 BE	+54.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
SPY Neville:0865	12	$765.67	$764.00 BE	+0.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
COIN-LC500 ↗ ▲ UP +3.7% Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$178.75	$355.43	—	25 × $202.50 18 Sep (7d)alt tenor $3,650 cyc · $15,643/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 13%	25 × $202.50 18 Sep (7d) $3,650 cyc · $15,643/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 13%	🎯 22 × $195 18 Sep (7d) $5,368 cyc · $23,006/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 31%	22 × $185 18 Sep (7d) $10,780 cyc · $46,200/mo 66% survhist 65% · T:71%hist 64%	$12,888	-$347,570 (220.7% IC)	98.8%
GLXY ↗ ⚐ ▲ UP +6.1% Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$25.54	$35.36	25 × $35 9 Oct (28d) $100 cyc · $107/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13%	25 × $30 18 Sep (7d) $325 cyc · $1,393/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13%	23 × $28 18 Sep (7d) $667 cyc · $2,859/mo 80% survhist 83% · T:42%hist 39%	🎯 19 × $27 18 Sep (7d) $1,007 cyc · $4,316/mo 70% survhist 83% · T:62%hist 59%	23 × $26 18 Sep (7d) $2,047 cyc · $8,773/mo 58% survhist 70% · T:87%hist 79%	$4,837	-$14,869 (269.1% IC)	38.4%
TOTAL (12)	157	following every 🎯 $15,062 cyc · $60,678/mo		$7,015 cyc · $20,421/mo 9 of 12	$7,836 cyc · $33,583/mo	$11,915 cyc · $51,064/mo	$17,752 cyc · $76,080/mo	$35,234 cyc · $151,003/mo	$93,784	-$514,315

Spot \ Time	≥ 15d left	3-14d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $272.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $272-277.49	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $277.49	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$275.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,205	$3,988	+$11,456	+$4,475
+2.5%	$281.88 (1.3σ)	$-2,232	$4,229	+$11,696	+$4,475
+5%	$288.75 (1.7σ)	$-5,670	$4,469	+$11,937	+$4,475

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$270	21 Sep 2026	6d left	+$0.31/sh	+$153 cycle +$403 [+$88…+$409] · 90% credit	66% surv 51%	+$511 SAFE cap gain +$7,979
Max even-money escape in the band	~$279	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.92/sh	+$458 cycle +$708 [+$177…+$715] · 86% credit	78% surv 71%	+$5,717 SAFE cap gain +$13,184
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$284	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.42/sh	-$208 cycle +$42 [-$598…+$4] · 25% credit	84% surv 80%	+$7,726 SAFE cap gain +$15,194
budget: banked $250 debit $208 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,743/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $267.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $267-270.51	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $270.51	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$270.00 (1.5σ)	$250	$358	+$7,826	+$1,020
+2.5%	$276.75 (2.2σ)	$-3,125	$594	+$8,062	+$1,020
+5%	$283.50 (2.9σ)	$-6,500	$831	+$8,298	+$1,020

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$265	21 Sep 2026	6d left	+$0.41/sh	+$205 cycle +$770 [+$65…+$362] · 86% credit	66% surv 51%	-$1,797 NOT cap gain +$5,671
Max even-money escape in the band	~$274	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$1.07/sh	+$534 cycle +$1,099 [+$144…+$694] · 84% credit	78% surv 71%	+$3,433 SAFE cap gain +$10,900
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$279	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.27/sh	-$136 cycle +$429 [-$643…-$47] · 24% credit	83% surv 79%	+$5,438 SAFE cap gain +$12,905
budget: banked $565 debit $136 (24% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$429 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,795/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $262.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $262-266.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $266.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$265.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$565	$-2,002	+$5,466	+$85
+2.5%	$271.62 (1.6σ)	$-2,748	$-1,770	+$5,697	-$1,165
+5%	$278.25 (2.3σ)	$-6,060	$-1,538	+$5,929	-$1,165

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$262	21 Sep 2026	6d left	+$0.46/sh	+$230 cycle +$1,060 [+$44…+$273] · 84% credit	66% surv 51%	-$2,844 NOT cap gain +$4,623
Max even-money escape in the band	~$272	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$1.14/sh	+$571 cycle +$1,401 [+$109…+$572] · 82% credit	78% surv 71%	+$2,397 SAFE cap gain +$9,864
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$282	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$1.21/sh	-$604 cycle +$226 [-$1,304…-$703] · 2% credit	88% surv 86%	+$6,572 SAFE cap gain +$14,040
budget: banked $830 debit $604 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$226 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,192/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $259.88	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $260-264.19	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $264.19	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$262.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$830	$-3,074	+$4,393	+$350
+2.5%	$269.06 (1.4σ)	$-2,451	$-2,845	+$4,623	-$2,150
+5%	$275.62 (2.0σ)	$-5,732	$-2,615	+$4,852	-$2,150

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$258	21 Sep 2026	6d left	+$0.56/sh	+$279 cycle +$1,954 [+$28…+$167] · 82% credit	67% surv 51%	-$4,625 NOT cap gain +$2,842
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$267	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$1.28/sh	+$640 cycle +$2,315 [+$27…+$370] · 77% credit	78% surv 71%	+$637 SAFE cap gain +$8,104
Max even-money escape in the band	~$267	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.04/sh	+$18 cycle +$1,693 [-$636…-$251] · 10% credit	79% surv 73%	+$14 SAFE cap gain +$7,482
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$282	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$1.80/sh	-$901 cycle +$774 [-$1,955…-$1,297]	92% surv 91%	+$7,120 SAFE cap gain +$14,587
budget: banked $1,675 debit $901 (54% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$774 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $783/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $254.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $255-260.93	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $260.93	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$257.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,675	$-4,904	+$2,563	+$1,195
+2.5%	$263.94 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,544	$-4,679	+$2,788	-$2,024
+5%	$270.38 (1.5σ)	$-4,762	$-4,454	+$3,014	-$3,805

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$202	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$3.13/sh	+$7,821 cycle +$11,471 [+$7,114…+$11,495] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$160,979 NOT cap gain +$28,271
Max even-money escape in the band	~$224	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.62/sh	+$1,542 cycle +$5,192 [-$1,147…+$4,573] · 67% credit	79% surv 73%	-$152,228 NOT cap gain +$37,022
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$211	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$226 cycle +$3,876 [-$1,611…+$2,423] · 55% credit	75% surv 66%	-$162,387 NOT cap gain +$26,863
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$229	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.73/sh	-$1,816 cycle +$1,834 [-$5,204…+$917] · 33% credit	81% surv 77%	-$152,049 NOT cap gain +$37,201
budget: banked $3,650 debit $1,816 (50% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,834 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $18,741/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $200.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $200-204.01	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $204.01	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$202.50 (1.5σ)	$3,650	$-168,800	+$20,450	+$3,450
+2.5%	$207.56 (1.8σ)	$-9,006	$-177,875	+$11,375	-$9,206
+5%	$212.62 (2.1σ)	$-21,662	$-186,949	+$2,301	-$21,862
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (23.7σ)	$-897,600	$-814,997	-$625,747	-$240,300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$202	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$3.13/sh	+$7,821 cycle +$11,471 [+$7,114…+$11,495] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$160,979 NOT cap gain +$28,271
Max even-money escape in the band	~$224	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.62/sh	+$1,542 cycle +$5,192 [-$1,147…+$4,573] · 67% credit	79% surv 73%	-$152,228 NOT cap gain +$37,022
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$211	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$226 cycle +$3,876 [-$1,611…+$2,423] · 55% credit	75% surv 66%	-$162,387 NOT cap gain +$26,863
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$229	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.73/sh	-$1,816 cycle +$1,834 [-$5,204…+$917] · 33% credit	81% surv 77%	-$152,049 NOT cap gain +$37,201
budget: banked $3,650 debit $1,816 (50% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,834 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $18,741/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $200.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $200-204.01	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $204.01	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$202.50 (1.5σ)	$3,650	$-168,800	+$20,450	+$3,450
+2.5%	$207.56 (1.8σ)	$-9,006	$-177,875	+$11,375	-$9,206
+5%	$212.62 (2.1σ)	$-21,662	$-186,949	+$2,301	-$21,862
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (23.7σ)	$-897,600	$-814,997	-$625,747	-$240,300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (22 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$195	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$2.92/sh	+$6,421 cycle +$11,789 [+$5,000…+$8,230] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$165,944 NOT cap gain +$23,306
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$206	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$2.66/sh	+$5,844 cycle +$11,212 [+$3,004…+$7,889] · 96% credit	74% surv 66%	-$158,565 NOT cap gain +$30,685
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$201	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.93/sh	+$2,055 cycle +$7,423 [+$128…+$3,482] · 77% credit	73% surv 63%	-$165,892 NOT cap gain +$23,358
Max even-money escape in the band	~$216	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$463 cycle +$5,831 [-$3,285…+$2,051] · 39% credit	79% surv 74%	-$156,871 NOT cap gain +$32,379
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$221	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$2.29/sh	-$5,041 cycle +$327 [-$9,744…-$4,044] · 5% credit	83% surv 81%	-$158,837 NOT cap gain +$30,413
budget: banked $5,368 debit $5,041 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$327 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $14,680/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $193.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $193-197.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $197.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$195.00 (1.0σ)	$5,368	$-172,365	+$16,885	+$5,192
+2.5%	$199.87 (1.3σ)	$-5,357	$-179,641	+$9,609	-$5,533
+5%	$204.75 (1.6σ)	$-16,082	$-186,917	+$2,333	-$16,258
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (23.7σ)	$-804,232	$-800,505	-$611,255	-$225,808

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (22 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$185	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$2.65/sh	+$5,829 cycle +$16,609 [+$3,666…+$5,596] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$168,198 NOT cap gain +$21,052
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$196	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$2.07/sh	+$4,563 cycle +$15,343 [+$490…+$3,581] · 81% credit	74% surv 67%	-$161,508 NOT cap gain +$27,742
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$191	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.62/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$12,138 [-$1,313…+$657] · 38% credit	74% surv 64%	-$168,251 NOT cap gain +$20,999
Max even-money escape in the band	~$201	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.13/sh	+$280 cycle +$11,060 [-$4,873…-$1,124] · 18% credit	77% surv 72%	-$162,254 NOT cap gain +$26,996
SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$214	25 Sep 2026	10d left	-$4.18/sh	-$9,196 cycle +$1,584 [-$15,506…-$11,182]	92% surv 91%	-$162,886 NOT cap gain +$26,364
budget: banked $10,780 debit $9,196 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,584 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $10,327/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $183.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $183-190.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $190.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$185.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$10,780	$-174,028	+$15,222	+$10,604
+2.5%	$189.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$605	$-180,930	+$8,320	+$429
+5%	$194.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-9,570	$-187,833	+$1,417	-$9,746
SS (= V-bounce)	$563.00 (23.7σ)	$-820,820	$-817,093	-$627,843	-$242,396

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.73/sh	+$1,465 cycle +$2,265 [+$945…+$2,049] · 97% credit	66% surv 52%	+$3,485 SAFE cap gain +$14,885
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$101	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.45/sh	+$904 cycle +$1,704 [-$50…+$1,524] · 73% credit	74% surv 67%	+$12,532 SAFE cap gain +$23,932
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$98	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.17/sh	+$336 cycle +$1,136 [-$304…+$814] · 58% credit	71% surv 61%	+$5,941 SAFE cap gain +$17,341
Max even-money escape in the band	~$102	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$295 cycle +$1,095 [-$746…+$886] · 50% credit	77% surv 72%	+$14,935 SAFE cap gain +$26,335
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.28/sh	-$564 cycle +$236 [-$1,749…-$14] · 25% credit	79% surv 75%	+$17,089 SAFE cap gain +$28,489
budget: banked $800 debit $564 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$236 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,494/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $95-96.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $96.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 20 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 1 watch · 2 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (14d)

$552.00

$565.44

$28.20

$26.20

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (70d)

$654.75

$687.21

$47.12

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLXY

Main:1299

100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 (0d)

$25.48

$30.13

$0.02

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (21d)

$178.60

$229.43

$1.92

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC670

Joint:1782

1x $1100C 25 Sep 2026 (14d)

$973.48

$1,125.39

$8.15

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (21d)

$104.19

$118.98

$2.42

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)

$134.00

$155.41

$6.42

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)

$335.81

$359.26

$5.58

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)

$102.55

$112.23

$0.99

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)

$43.78

$55.88

$1.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)

$43.78

$55.88

$1.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)

$90.63

$127.58

$1.33

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMD

Neville:0865

2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (42d)

$515.34

$593.17

$13.82

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SNDK

Neville:0865

1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (42d)

$1,640.24

$2,085.25

$68.55

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (42d)

$973.48

$1,252.67

$21.40

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (42d)

$973.48

$1,284.32

$16.62

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (70d)

$183.15

$224.53

$5.92

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (70d)

$135.25

$180.96

$8.55

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (70d)

$135.25

$180.95

$8.55

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (98d)

$402.34

$476.90

$5.03

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$26.14	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 50.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$26.14	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 28.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$26.14	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 60.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$13.48	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.0% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$37.32	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.5% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$44.60	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.8% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$12.12	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 27.6% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$12.12	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 70.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 19 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMD	Neville:0865	2	$489.91	2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (42d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (21d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (14d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (98d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (35d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (35d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (21d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (70d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (70d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (70d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC670	Joint:1782	1	$792.36	1x $1100C 25 Sep 2026 (14d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (42d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (42d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (35d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (70d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (42d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2590 of 2796 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	180	56%	63%	+7pp
60-70%	362	64%	62%	-3pp
70-80%	460	76%	82%	+6pp
80-90%	600	85%	84%	-0pp
90-100%	988	94%	95%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2590 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 9 graded weeks; last week 0.93x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 165 real buyback(s) recorded · 83 roll(s), net +$0.59/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 83 real rolls: buyback $6.77/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.59/sh (58 of 83 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-09-11 22:01

Gross FIGHT income	$1,291/mo
vs 50% target ($2,979/mo)	-57%
vs normal income ($5,957/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$653/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($33,960)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-7,505

Gross FIGHT income	$1,071/mo
vs 50% target ($2,979/mo)	-64%
vs normal income ($5,957/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$433/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($33,960)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-7,473

Gross FIGHT income	$2,421/mo
vs 50% target ($2,979/mo)	-19%
vs normal income ($5,957/mo)	41% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,783/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,071
… as % of IC ($33,960)	6.1%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	4.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-7,478

Gross FIGHT income	$3,557/mo
vs 50% target ($2,979/mo)	+19%
vs normal income ($5,957/mo)	60% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,919/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,056
… as % of IC ($33,960)	9.0%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	5.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-7,485

Gross FIGHT income	$7,179/mo
vs 50% target ($2,979/mo)	+141%
vs normal income ($5,957/mo)	121% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,540/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,711
… as % of IC ($33,960)	13.9%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	9.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-7,505

Gross FIGHT income	$15,643/mo
vs 50% target ($22,768/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($45,536/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,643/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$378,666
… as % of IC ($157,500)	240.4%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	162.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.3 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-189,387

Gross FIGHT income	$23,006/mo
vs 50% target ($22,768/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($45,536/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$23,040/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$347,570
… as % of IC ($157,500)	220.7%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	149.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.6 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)	$-166,749

Gross FIGHT income	$46,200/mo
vs 50% target ($22,768/mo)	+103%
vs normal income ($45,536/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$46,234/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$364,158
… as % of IC ($157,500)	231.2%
… as % of ML ($232,500)	156.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.0 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)	$-166,760

Gross FIGHT income	$3,429/mo
vs 50% target ($5,432/mo)	-37%
vs normal income ($10,864/mo)	32% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,429/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($56,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-11,600

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.00 (1.1σ)	$800	$2,020	+$13,420	+$2,000
+2.5%	$98.40 (1.5σ)	$-4,000	$2,039	+$13,439	+$2,000
+5%	$100.80 (2.0σ)	$-8,800	$2,059	+$13,459	+$2,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.80/sh	+$1,600 cycle +$1,800 [+$1,388…+$2,708] · 96% credit	66% surv 52%	+$11,052 SAFE cap gain +$22,452
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$102	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.25/sh	+$499 cycle +$699 [+$225…+$1,485] · 81% credit	71% surv 60%	+$13,535 SAFE cap gain +$24,935
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$106	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.31/sh	+$629 cycle +$829 [+$81…+$1,817] · 78% credit	76% surv 70%	+$22,701 SAFE cap gain +$34,101
Max even-money escape in the band	~$107	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.03/sh	+$65 cycle +$265 [-$572…+$1,225] · 57% credit	78% surv 73%	+$24,145 SAFE cap gain +$35,545

Gross FIGHT income	$857/mo
vs 50% target ($5,432/mo)	-84%
vs normal income ($10,864/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$857/mo

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $99-100.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $100.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$100.00 (1.8σ)	$200	$9,452	+$20,852	+$9,400
+2.5%	$102.50 (2.3σ)	$-4,800	$9,472	+$20,872	+$9,400
+5%	$105.00 (2.7σ)	$-9,800	$9,492	+$20,892	+$9,400

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (16 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.72/sh	+$1,146 cycle +$2,026 [+$661…+$1,524] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	+$1,398 SAFE cap gain +$12,798
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$100	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.41/sh	+$658 cycle +$1,538 [-$154…+$986] · 67% credit	74% surv 68%	+$8,605 SAFE cap gain +$20,005
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$97	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.15/sh	+$238 cycle +$1,118 [-$314…+$508] · 53% credit	71% surv 61%	+$3,360 SAFE cap gain +$14,760
Max even-money escape in the band	~$101	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.11/sh	+$173 cycle +$1,053 [-$686…+$444] · 43% credit	77% surv 72%	+$10,531 SAFE cap gain +$21,931
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.47/sh	-$749 cycle +$131 [-$1,790…-$581] · 12% credit	81% surv 78%	+$13,629 SAFE cap gain +$25,029
budget: banked $880 debit $749 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $3,132/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$3,771/mo
vs 50% target ($5,432/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($10,864/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,857/mo

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $94-95.83	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $95.83	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$95.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$880	$252	+$11,652	+$240
+2.5%	$97.37 (1.4σ)	$-2,920	$271	+$11,671	+$240
+5%	$99.75 (1.8σ)	$-6,720	$290	+$11,690	+$240

Gross FIGHT income	$5,700/mo
vs 50% target ($5,432/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($10,864/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,971/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,494
… as % of IC ($56,800)	2.6%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	1.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.1 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)	$-11,352

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $93.06	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $93-94.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $94.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$94.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,330	$-1,326	+$10,074	-$1,330
+2.5%	$96.35 (1.2σ)	$-3,135	$-1,307	+$10,093	-$1,330
+5%	$98.70 (1.6σ)	$-7,600	$-1,288	+$10,112	-$1,330

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (17 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$91	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.65/sh	+$1,109 cycle +$3,659 [+$273…+$787] · 89% credit	65% surv 52%	-$4,591 NOT cap gain +$6,809
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$95	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.83/sh	+$1,411 cycle +$3,961 [+$306…+$993] · 87% credit	75% surv 67%	+$3,780 SAFE cap gain +$15,180
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$93	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.07/sh	+$125 cycle +$2,675 [-$828…-$226] · 16% credit	72% surv 62%	-$1,990 NOT cap gain +$9,410
Max even-money escape in the band	~$96	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.11/sh	+$188 cycle +$2,738 [-$1,309…-$331] · 15% credit	76% surv 70%	+$4,265 SAFE cap gain +$15,665
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$106	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$1.34/sh	-$2,270 cycle +$280 [-$4,558…-$3,076]	91% surv 90%	+$18,887 SAFE cap gain +$30,287
budget: banked $2,550 debit $2,270 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$280 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $1,114/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Gross FIGHT income	$10,929/mo
vs 50% target ($5,432/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($10,864/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,743/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,076
… as % of IC ($56,800)	8.9%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	5.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (17 ct)	$-10,115

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $90.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $90-92.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $92.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.