FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 6 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 6 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 0 uncapped above water | 27 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $47,250/mo (51% of normal target)

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				TUNED	RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Tuned	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
ENPH ↗⚡ER 6d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	10	$37.93	$58.14	10 × $47.50 $320 cyc · $1,200/mo 90% surv · T:21%	10 × $46 $560 cyc · $2,100/mo 87% surv · T:28%	🎯⚡ 10 × $44 $880 cyc · $3,300/mo 81% surv · T:29%	9 × $40 $1,737 cyc · $6,514/mo 65% surv · T:76%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,164	-$13,257 (181.6% IC)	53.3%
GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER TODAY Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$318.10	$377.63	5 × $342.50 $490 cyc · $1,838/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯⚡ 5 × $337.50 $750 cyc · $2,812/mo 85% surv · T:30%	5 × $332.50 $1,160 cyc · $4,350/mo 79% surv · T:42%	5 × $322.50 $2,550 cyc · $9,562/mo 61% surv · T:80%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$25,239	-$19,314 (75.7% IC)	18.7%
MSTR-LC125 ↗⚡ER 8d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	4	$92.75	$167.22	4 × $109 $264 cyc · $990/mo 91% surv · T:20%	🎯⚡ 4 × $104 $508 cyc · $1,905/mo 83% surv · T:39%	4 × $101 $760 cyc · $2,850/mo 77% surv · T:47%	4 × $95 $1,500 cyc · $5,625/mo 60% surv · T:84%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$401	-$24,779 (516.2% IC)	80.3%
NOW ↗⚡ER TODAY Main:1299 · Next Fri	10	$94.05	$113.99	—	🎯⚡ 9 × $103 $837 cyc · $3,139/mo 83% surv · T:33%	10 × $101 $1,270 cyc · $4,762/mo 78% surv · T:45%	10 × $96 $2,630 cyc · $9,862/mo 60% surv · T:82%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$1,504	-$9,058 (32.5% IC)	21.2%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗⚡ER 13d Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$23.86	$31.94	125 × $29 $2,000 cyc · $7,500/mo 91% surv · T:19%	100 × $27 $4,500 cyc · $16,875/mo 81% surv · T:39%	🎯 124 × $26.50 $6,820 cyc · $25,575/mo 78% surv · T:34%	122 × $24.50 $13,664 cyc · $51,240/mo 60% surv · T:85%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$879	-$60,580 (219.3% IC)	33.8%
MSTR-LC180 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 8d Joint:1782 · Next Fri	10	$92.75	$148.34	10 × $109 $660 cyc · $2,475/mo 91% surv · T:20%	🎯⚡ 9 × $104 $1,143 cyc · $4,286/mo 83% surv · T:37%	9 × $101 $1,710 cyc · $6,412/mo 77% surv · T:47%	9 × $95 $3,375 cyc · $12,656/mo 60% surv · T:84%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$1,166	-$38,763 (73.1% IC)	59.9%
TOTAL (6)	164	following every 🎯 $10,938 cyc · $41,018/mo		$3,734 cyc · $14,002/mo 5 of 6	$8,298 cyc · $31,118/mo	$12,600 cyc · $47,250/mo	$25,456 cyc · $95,460/mo		$31,352	-$165,751

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.34/sh	+$342 cycle +$662 [+$53…+$833] · 80% credit	68% surv 53%	-$10,684 NOT cap gain +$11,256
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$49	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.48/sh	+$480 cycle +$800 [-$79…+$987] · 72% credit	69% surv 58%	-$9,362 NOT cap gain +$12,578
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.15/sh	+$150 cycle +$470 [-$164…+$617] · 63% credit	69% surv 56%	-$10,245 NOT cap gain +$11,695
Max even-money escape in the band	~$50	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.13/sh	+$130 cycle +$450 [-$478…+$600] · 53% credit	70% surv 62%	-$8,605 NOT cap gain +$13,335
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$51	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.29/sh	-$289 cycle +$31 [-$841…+$215] · 30% credit	74% surv 66%	-$7,916 NOT cap gain +$14,024
budget: banked $320 debit $289 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,076/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-48.26	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.26	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.50 (1.5σ)	$320	$-11,026	+$10,914	+$200
+2.5%	$48.69 (1.6σ)	$-867	$-10,899	+$11,041	-$987
+5%	$49.88 (1.8σ)	$-2,055	$-10,772	+$11,168	-$2,175
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-8,330	$-10,100	+$11,840	-$8,300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.38/sh	+$379 cycle +$939 [+$67…+$811] · 83% credit	68% surv 53%	-$12,067 NOT cap gain +$9,873
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$47	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$505 cycle +$1,065 [-$59…+$876] · 72% credit	69% surv 59%	-$10,757 NOT cap gain +$11,183
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$47	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.19/sh	+$188 cycle +$748 [-$154…+$587] · 61% credit	69% surv 56%	-$11,628 NOT cap gain +$10,312
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.16/sh	+$157 cycle +$717 [-$468…+$482] · 47% credit	71% surv 62%	-$9,998 NOT cap gain +$11,942
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.56/sh	-$556 cycle +$4 [-$1,199…-$245] · 17% credit	77% surv 70%	-$8,497 NOT cap gain +$13,443
budget: banked $560 debit $556 (99% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,487/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (1.2σ)	$560	$-12,447	+$9,493	+$440
+2.5%	$47.15 (1.4σ)	$-590	$-12,323	+$9,617	-$710
+5%	$48.30 (1.6σ)	$-1,740	$-12,200	+$9,740	-$1,860
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-9,590	$-11,360	+$10,580	-$9,560

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.42/sh	+$424 cycle +$1,304 [+$43…+$616] · 79% credit	68% surv 53%	-$13,916 NOT cap gain +$8,024
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$45	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.53/sh	+$534 cycle +$1,414 [-$99…+$690] · 68% credit	69% surv 59%	-$12,622 NOT cap gain +$9,318
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.23/sh	+$232 cycle +$1,112 [-$180…+$408] · 55% credit	69% surv 56%	-$13,477 NOT cap gain +$8,463
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.19/sh	+$188 cycle +$1,068 [-$510…+$318] · 37% credit	71% surv 62%	-$11,861 NOT cap gain +$10,079
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.85/sh	-$855 cycle +$25 [-$1,666…-$782] · 6% credit	79% surv 74%	-$9,583 NOT cap gain +$12,357
budget: banked $880 debit $855 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$25 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,796/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.56	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-45.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$880	$-14,341	+$7,599	+$760
+2.5%	$45.10 (1.1σ)	$-220	$-14,223	+$7,717	-$340
+5%	$46.20 (1.3σ)	$-1,320	$-14,105	+$7,835	-$1,440
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-11,270	$-13,040	+$8,900	-$11,240

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$40	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.02/sh	+$918 cycle +$2,655 [+$240…+$722] · 89% credit	67% surv 55%	-$16,904 NOT cap gain +$5,036
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$40	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.50/sh	+$448 cycle +$2,185 [-$23…+$315] · 71% credit	68% surv 54%	-$17,451 NOT cap gain +$4,489
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$41	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.30/sh	+$273 cycle +$2,010 [-$218…+$129] · 37% credit	70% surv 57%	-$16,995 NOT cap gain +$4,945
Max even-money escape in the band	~$42	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.23/sh	+$211 cycle +$1,948 [-$613…-$41] · 23% credit	71% surv 63%	-$15,398 NOT cap gain +$6,542
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$52	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.82/sh	-$1,637 cycle +$100 [-$3,016…-$2,081]	91% surv 90%	-$6,175 NOT cap gain +$15,765
budget: banked $1,737 debit $1,637 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$100 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $726/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $39.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $40-42.13	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $42.13	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$40.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,737	$-17,900	+$4,040	+$1,629
+2.5%	$41.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$837	$-17,693	+$4,247	+$729
+5%	$42.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-63	$-17,486	+$4,454	-$171
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-12,798	$-14,571	+$7,369	-$12,771

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$54	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.14/sh	+$142 cycle +$202 [+$243…+$1,131] · 87% credit	67% surv 53%	-$3,949 NOT cap gain +$17,991
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$54	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.13/sh	+$127 cycle +$187 [+$227…+$1,113] · 87% credit	68% surv 53%	-$3,886 NOT cap gain +$18,054
Max even-money escape in the band	~$55	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.33/sh	+$330 cycle +$390 [+$174…+$1,268] · 83% credit	68% surv 58%	-$2,576 NOT cap gain +$19,364
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$56	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.03/sh	-$27 cycle +$33 [-$233…+$853] · 62% credit	70% surv 61%	-$1,826 NOT cap gain +$20,114
budget: banked $60 debit $27 (45% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,136/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $53.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $53-54.22	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $54.22	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$54.00 (2.5σ)	$60	$-4,091	+$17,849	-$60
+2.5%	$55.35 (2.7σ)	$-1,290	$-3,946	+$17,994	-$1,410
+5%	$56.70 (2.9σ)	$-2,640	$-3,802	+$18,138	-$2,060

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$53	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.18/sh	+$176 cycle +$276 [+$143…+$1,100] · 82% credit	67% surv 53%	-$4,981 NOT cap gain +$16,959
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$53	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.16/sh	+$162 cycle +$262 [+$125…+$1,079] · 81% credit	68% surv 53%	-$4,918 NOT cap gain +$17,022
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$54	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.36/sh	+$357 cycle +$457 [-$3…+$1,207] · 74% credit	68% surv 58%	-$3,616 NOT cap gain +$18,324
Max even-money escape in the band	~$55	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.00/sh	+$1 cycle +$101 [-$443…+$788] · 57% credit	70% surv 61%	-$2,865 NOT cap gain +$19,075
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $52.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $52-53.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $53.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$53.00 (2.3σ)	$100	$-5,158	+$16,782	-$20
+2.5%	$54.32 (2.5σ)	$-1,225	$-5,016	+$16,924	-$1,345
+5%	$55.65 (2.7σ)	$-2,550	$-4,874	+$17,066	-$2,670
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-3,050	$-4,820	+$17,120	-$3,020

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$52	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.21/sh	+$210 cycle +$350 [+$190…+$1,095] · 86% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,015 NOT cap gain +$15,925
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$53	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.38/sh	+$383 cycle +$523 [+$54…+$1,277] · 79% credit	68% surv 58%	-$4,657 NOT cap gain +$17,283
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$53	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.02/sh	+$20 cycle +$160 [-$25…+$871] · 71% credit	69% surv 56%	-$5,574 NOT cap gain +$16,366
Max even-money escape in the band	~$54	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.03/sh	+$28 cycle +$168 [-$395…+$870] · 59% credit	70% surv 61%	-$3,905 NOT cap gain +$18,035
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $51.48	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $51-52.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $52.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$52.00 (2.2σ)	$140	$-6,225	+$15,715	+$20
+2.5%	$53.30 (2.4σ)	$-1,160	$-6,085	+$15,855	-$1,280
+5%	$54.60 (2.6σ)	$-2,460	$-5,946	+$15,994	-$2,580
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-4,010	$-5,780	+$16,160	-$3,980

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$51	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$241 cycle +$391 [+$121…+$865] · 83% credit	68% surv 53%	-$7,080 NOT cap gain +$14,860
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$52	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.41/sh	+$407 cycle +$557 [-$11…+$984] · 73% credit	68% surv 58%	-$5,730 NOT cap gain +$16,210
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$52	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.05/sh	+$51 cycle +$201 [-$120…+$617] · 67% credit	69% surv 56%	-$6,639 NOT cap gain +$15,301
Max even-money escape in the band	~$53	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$53 cycle +$203 [-$449…+$599] · 50% credit	70% surv 61%	-$4,977 NOT cap gain +$16,963
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $50.49	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-51.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $51.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$51.00 (2.0σ)	$150	$-7,322	+$14,618	+$30
+2.5%	$52.27 (2.2σ)	$-1,125	$-7,185	+$14,755	-$1,245
+5%	$53.55 (2.4σ)	$-2,400	$-7,049	+$14,891	-$2,520
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-5,000	$-6,770	+$15,170	-$4,970

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.27/sh	+$272 cycle +$472 [+$148…+$863] · 82% credit	68% surv 53%	-$8,107 NOT cap gain +$13,833
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$51	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.43/sh	+$430 cycle +$630 [-$11…+$966] · 75% credit	68% surv 58%	-$6,764 NOT cap gain +$15,176
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$51	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.08/sh	+$81 cycle +$281 [-$86…+$600] · 69% credit	69% surv 56%	-$7,666 NOT cap gain +$14,274
Max even-money escape in the band	~$52	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.08/sh	+$77 cycle +$277 [-$436…+$583] · 58% credit	70% surv 61%	-$6,010 NOT cap gain +$15,930
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-50.28	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $50.28	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$50.00 (1.9σ)	$200	$-8,379	+$13,561	+$80
+2.5%	$51.25 (2.0σ)	$-1,050	$-8,245	+$13,695	-$1,170
+5%	$52.50 (2.2σ)	$-2,300	$-8,111	+$13,829	-$2,420
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-5,950	$-7,720	+$14,220	-$5,920

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.29/sh	+$286 cycle +$436 [+$104…+$814] · 83% credit	68% surv 53%	-$8,696 NOT cap gain +$13,244
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$51	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.44/sh	+$440 cycle +$590 [-$23…+$986] · 73% credit	68% surv 58%	-$7,357 NOT cap gain +$14,583
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.10/sh	+$96 cycle +$246 [-$113…+$595] · 66% credit	69% surv 56%	-$8,255 NOT cap gain +$13,685
Max even-money escape in the band	~$52	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.09/sh	+$88 cycle +$238 [-$437…+$613] · 50% credit	70% surv 62%	-$6,602 NOT cap gain +$15,338
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $49-49.94	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.94	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 28 active short call(s) all quiet, theta working

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$985.01	$1,069.99	$40.45	$40.45	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 64.99 OTM = 6.6% (0.9x a typical daily move). The $40.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,069.99 (breakeven).
IGV	Main:1299	12x $93.5C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$86.86	$94.30	$0.40	$0.40	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.64 OTM = 7.6% (3.2x a typical daily move). The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$899 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $94.30 (breakeven).
COPX	Joint:1782	20x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$77.91	$85.40	$0.33	$0.33	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.09 OTM = 9.1% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$705 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $85.40 (breakeven).
APP	RetireInc:7291	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$398.44	$441.92	$5.70	$5.70	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 36.56 OTM = 9.2% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $5.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$687 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $441.92 (breakeven).
MDB	Neville:0865	1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$297.56	$331.10	$4.28	$4.28	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 27.44 OTM = 9.2% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $4.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$605 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $331.10 (breakeven).
AMZN	Joint:1782	10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$232.70	$257.58	$2.32	$2.32	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 22.30 OTM = 9.6% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $2.32 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,534 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $257.58 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $35.5C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$31.93	$36.42	$0.95	$0.95	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.57 OTM = 11.2% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $0.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,306 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $36.42 (breakeven).
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2x $1125C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$985.01	$1,146.25	$20.90	$20.90	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 139.99 OTM = 14.2% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $20.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,240 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,146.25 (breakeven).
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	40x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$12.63	$14.71	$0.17	$0.17	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.87 OTM = 14.8% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$640 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $14.71 (breakeven).
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6x $83C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$67.99	$84.05	$0.42	$0.42	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.01 OTM = 22.1% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $0.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$602 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.05 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20x $51C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$41.40	$51.96	$0.62	$0.62	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.60 OTM = 23.2% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $0.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,813 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $51.96 (breakeven).
RIOT	Joint:1782	50x $30C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$24.23	$30.21	$0.21	$0.21	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.77 OTM = 23.8% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $0.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $30.21 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)	$41.40	$55.50	$0.30	$0.30	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.60 OTM = 32.8% (4.1x a typical daily move). The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$905 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.50 (breakeven).
NVDA	Neville:0865	5x $220C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)	$207.19	$224.27	$2.22	$2.22	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.81 OTM = 6.2% (2.6x a typical daily move). The $2.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,110 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.27 (breakeven).
META	Main:1299	3x $637.5C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)	$597.76	$654.07	$16.50	$16.50	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 39.74 OTM = 6.6% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $16.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,955 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $654.07 (breakeven).
NEM	Main:1299	5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)	$93.66	$107.00	$0.93	$0.93	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.34 OTM = 13.2% (4.1x a typical daily move). The $0.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$476 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $107.00 (breakeven).
CRWV	Neville:0865	5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)	$81.45	$100.20	$2.46	$2.46	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.55 OTM = 19.1% (2.8x a typical daily move). The $2.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,577 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.20 (breakeven).
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)	$168.84	$210.57	$1.53	$1.53	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 38.66 OTM = 22.9% (4.5x a typical daily move). The $1.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,510 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $210.57 (breakeven).
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)	$16.44	$20.75	$0.20	$0.20	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.06 OTM = 24.7% (4.4x a typical daily move). The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,013 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $20.75 (breakeven).
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)	$41.40	$55.87	$0.82	$0.82	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.60 OTM = 32.8% (4.3x a typical daily move). The $0.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,638 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.87 (breakeven).
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)	$41.40	$55.85	$0.82	$0.82	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.60 OTM = 32.8% (4.3x a typical daily move). The $0.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,610 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.85 (breakeven).
SPCX	Neville:0865	5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)	$113.00	$167.67	$1.60	$1.60	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 52.00 OTM = 46.0% (5.3x a typical daily move). The $1.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,308 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $167.67 (breakeven).
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (22d)	$159.53	$198.70	$3.20	$3.20	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 35.47 OTM = 22.2% (4.2x a typical daily move). The $3.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,095 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $198.70 (breakeven).
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (22d)	$5.51	$7.35	$0.25	$0.25	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.49 OTM = 26.9% (3.8x a typical daily move). The $0.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $7.35 (breakeven).
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (22d)	$159.53	$216.23	$1.78	$1.78	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 50.47 OTM = 31.6% (6.0x a typical daily move). The $1.78 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$15,443 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $216.23 (breakeven).
GLD	Main:1299	10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (29d)	$371.49	$396.32	$3.22	$3.22	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.51 OTM = 5.0% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $3.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,268 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $396.32 (breakeven).
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (29d)	$439.89	$505.00	$28.23	$28.23	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 35.11 OTM = 8.0% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $28.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,985 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $505.00 (breakeven).
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (29d)	$159.53	$210.42	$3.62	$3.62	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 40.47 OTM = 25.4% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $3.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,298 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $210.42 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress

Acct

Price

CC-SS

↑ whole

Sell strike

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income @ strike

Normal income

Action

GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER TODAY

Joint:1782

$318.10

$340.37

7.0%

$342.50 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · 85% surv

30%

$985

$1,970/mo (23%)

$8,400/mo

sell 5x $342.50 CC SIM ▾

INTC ↗⚡ER TMRW

Neville:0865

$100.64

$116.29

15.5%

$117 27 Jul 2026 (4d) · 85% surv

32%

$825

$6,188/mo (69%)

$8,942/mo

sell 5x $117 CC SIM ▾

CLSK ↗⚡ER 15d

RetireInc:7291

$15.68

$17.17

9.5%

$18 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · 84% surv

34%

$600

$2,250/mo (37%)

$6,025/mo

sell 25x $18 CC SIM ▾

GOOG-LC300 ↗⚡ER TODAY

Neville:0865

$318.10

$339.30

6.7%

$340 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · 83% surv

35%

$3,540

$7,080/mo (28%)

$25,200/mo

sell 15x $340 CC SIM ▾

MARA-LC40 ↗⚡ER 15d

Main:1299

200

$12.63

$14.94

18.3%

$15 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · 83% surv

36%

$6,200

$12,400/mo (32%)

$39,204/mo

sell 200x $15 CC SIM ▾

SPY ↗

Neville:0865

$736.65

$691.97

0.0%

$745 27 Jul 2026 (4d) · 80% surv

39%

$1,452

$10,890/mo (43%)

$25,200/mo

sell 12x $745 CC SIM ▾

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$16.44	$39.13	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 58.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$16.44	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 45.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$16.44	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 63.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.26	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 17.7% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$36.71	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.0% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	160	$12.63	$22.69	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 44.3% below BE SS · 40 of 200 capped · also tagged: Half Max [CC_AMBIGUOUS(40c lot fits 2 fortresses)]
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$12.63	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$12.63	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.2% below BE SS

CAPPED: 27 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.13	50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (22d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (29d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (22d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (29d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (29d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $36C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $94C 31 Jul 2026 (8d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $51C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $638C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1125C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $220C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $208C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)
RIOT	Joint:1782	50	$23.65	50x $30C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $83C 31 Jul 2026 (8d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (15d)
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.45	25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (22d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 887 of 1715 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	71	55%	85%	+29pp
60-70%	115	64%	88%	+24pp
70-80%	162	77%	98%	+22pp
80-90%	199	84%	99%	+15pp
90-100%	340	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 99 real buyback(s) recorded · 34 roll(s), net +$1.35/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 --all | 2026-07-23 23:50

Gross FIGHT income	$1,200/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-62%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,005/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,317
… as % of IC ($7,300)	141.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	21.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,375

Gross FIGHT income	$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,905/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,577
… as % of IC ($7,300)	158.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	24.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,025

Gross FIGHT income	$3,300/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,105/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,257
… as % of IC ($7,300)	181.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	28.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,150

Gross FIGHT income	$6,514/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,343/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,586
… as % of IC ($7,300)	199.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	30.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-19,931

Gross FIGHT income	$225/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,077
… as % of IC ($7,300)	55.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	8.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,095

Gross FIGHT income	$375/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-88%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$180/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,037
… as % of IC ($7,300)	69.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	10.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,010

Gross FIGHT income	$525/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-83%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$330/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,997
… as % of IC ($7,300)	82.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	12.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,150

Gross FIGHT income	$562/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-82%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	9% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$368/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,987
… as % of IC ($7,300)	95.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	14.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,235

Gross FIGHT income	$750/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-76%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	12% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$555/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,937
… as % of IC ($7,300)	108.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	16.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,020

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,487
… as % of IC ($7,300)	116.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	17.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,225

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$49.50 (1.8σ)	$150	$-8,982	+$12,958	+$30
+2.5%	$50.74 (2.0σ)	$-1,087	$-8,850	+$13,090	-$1,207
+5%	$51.98 (2.2σ)	$-2,325	$-8,717	+$13,223	-$2,445
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-6,500	$-8,270	+$13,670	-$6,470

Gross FIGHT income	$1,125/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-64%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$930/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,837
… as % of IC ($7,300)	121.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	18.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,035

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $48.51	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $49-49.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$49.00 (1.7σ)	$300	$-9,386	+$12,554	+$180
+2.5%	$50.22 (1.9σ)	$-925	$-9,254	+$12,686	-$1,045
+5%	$51.45 (2.1σ)	$-2,150	$-9,123	+$12,817	-$2,270
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-6,850	$-8,620	+$13,320	-$6,820

Gross FIGHT income	$1,163/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-63%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$968/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,327
… as % of IC ($7,300)	127.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	19.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,315

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $48.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-49.19	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.19	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.50 (1.6σ)	$310	$-9,929	+$12,011	+$190
+2.5%	$49.71 (1.8σ)	$-902	$-9,799	+$12,141	-$1,022
+5%	$50.93 (2.0σ)	$-2,115	$-9,670	+$12,270	-$2,235
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-7,340	$-9,110	+$12,830	-$7,310

Gross FIGHT income	$975/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-69%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$780/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,877
… as % of IC ($7,300)	135.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	20.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,170

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.49	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.49	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (1.5σ)	$260	$-10,533	+$11,407	+$140
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.7σ)	$-940	$-10,404	+$11,536	-$1,060
+5%	$50.40 (1.9σ)	$-2,140	$-10,276	+$11,664	-$2,260
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.8σ)	$-7,890	$-9,660	+$12,280	-$7,860

Gross FIGHT income	$1,500/mo
vs 50% target ($3,150/mo)	-52%
vs normal income ($6,300/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,305/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,737
… as % of IC ($7,300)	147.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	22.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,140

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.