FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 6 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 6 underwater (not deep DD) | 7 skipped (CSV) | 0 uncapped above water | 28 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $43,899/mo (51% of normal target)

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				TUNED	RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Tuned	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
ENPH ↗⚡ER 5d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	10	$38.36	$58.93	10 × $48 $290 cyc · $1,243/mo 92% surv · T:17%	9 × $46 $477 cyc · $2,044/mo 87% surv · T:26%	🎯⚡ 10 × $45 $670 cyc · $2,871/mo 85% surv · T:22%	10 × $41.50 $1,420 cyc · $6,086/mo 71% surv · T:62%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,164	-$13,260 (181.6% IC)	53.6%
GOOG-LC340 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$319.89	$377.54	5 × $342.50 $395 cyc · $1,693/mo 92% surv · T:17%	🎯 5 × $335 $810 cyc · $3,471/mo 84% surv · T:37%	4 × $330 $1,084 cyc · $4,646/mo 75% surv · T:50%	5 × $322.50 $2,550 cyc · $10,929/mo 58% surv · T:86%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$25,239	-$20,462 (80.2% IC)	18.0%
MSTR-LC125 ↗⚡ER 7d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	4	$93.17	$168.03	4 × $108 $232 cyc · $994/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯⚡ 4 × $104 $416 cyc · $1,783/mo 85% surv · T:35%	4 × $101 $600 cyc · $2,571/mo 78% surv · T:46%	4 × $96 $1,180 cyc · $5,057/mo 63% surv · T:78%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$401	-$25,195 (524.9% IC)	80.3%
NOW ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	10	$96.74	$114.32	—	9 × $106 $738 cyc · $3,163/mo 88% surv · T:25%	🎯 10 × $104 $1,100 cyc · $4,714/mo 80% surv · T:29%	9 × $99 $2,277 cyc · $9,759/mo 62% surv · T:78%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$1,504	-$9,216 (33.1% IC)	18.2%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗⚡ER 12d Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$23.88	$33.72	125 × $3114d $3,000 cyc · $6,429/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 125 × $27 $3,500 cyc · $15,000/mo 83% surv · T:49%	123 × $25.50 $5,289 cyc · $22,667/mo 70% surv · T:62%	121 × $24.50 $10,648 cyc · $45,634/mo 60% surv · T:85%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$879	-$80,497 (291.4% IC)	41.2%
MSTR-LC180 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 7d Joint:1782 · Next Fri	10	$93.17	$150.23	10 × $108 $580 cyc · $2,486/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯⚡ 10 × $104 $1,040 cyc · $4,457/mo 85% surv · T:34%	10 × $101 $1,500 cyc · $6,429/mo 78% surv · T:46%	10 × $96 $2,950 cyc · $12,643/mo 63% surv · T:78%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$1,166	-$45,187 (85.3% IC)	61.2%
TOTAL (6)	164	following every 🎯 $7,536 cyc · $32,297/mo		$4,497 cyc · $12,844/mo 5 of 6	$6,981 cyc · $29,919/mo	$10,243 cyc · $43,899/mo	$21,025 cyc · $90,107/mo		$31,352	-$193,818

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.46/sh	+$465 cycle +$755 [-$117…+$1,429] · 72% credit	68% surv 55%	-$10,765 NOT cap gain +$11,615
Max even-money escape in the band	~$50	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$55 cycle +$345 [-$647…+$914] · 54% credit	70% surv 60%	-$9,508 NOT cap gain +$12,872
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.61/sh	-$614 cycle -$324 [-$1,178…+$196] · 29% credit	67% surv 53%	-$11,996 NOT cap gain +$10,384

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (1.7σ)	$290	$-11,383	+$10,997	+$250
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.9σ)	$-910	$-11,250	+$11,130	-$950
+5%	$50.40 (2.2σ)	$-2,110	$-11,116	+$11,264	-$2,150
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-7,860	$-10,478	+$11,902	-$7,750

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.54/sh	+$482 cycle +$959 [-$173…+$1,046] · 65% credit	68% surv 55%	-$12,779 NOT cap gain +$9,601
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.11/sh	+$103 cycle +$580 [-$706…+$590] · 43% credit	70% surv 60%	-$11,492 NOT cap gain +$10,888
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.50/sh	-$454 cycle +$23 [-$1,395…-$4] · 25% credit	73% surv 65%	-$10,382 NOT cap gain +$11,998
budget: banked $477 debit $454 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,051/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.53/sh	-$478 cycle -$1 [-$1,132…-$21] · 24% credit	67% surv 53%	-$13,891 NOT cap gain +$8,489

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.74	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.74	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (1.4σ)	$477	$-13,414	+$8,966	+$441
+2.5%	$47.15 (1.6σ)	$-558	$-13,171	+$9,209	-$594
+5%	$48.30 (1.8σ)	$-1,593	$-12,928	+$9,452	-$1,629
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-8,658	$-11,287	+$11,093	-$8,559

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$45	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.57/sh	+$567 cycle +$1,237 [-$371…+$1,136] · 61% credit	68% surv 55%	-$13,616 NOT cap gain +$8,764
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.14/sh	+$141 cycle +$811 [-$950…+$644] · 42% credit	70% surv 61%	-$12,376 NOT cap gain +$10,004
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.47/sh	-$474 cycle +$196 [-$1,703…-$33] · 24% credit	73% surv 65%	-$11,324 NOT cap gain +$11,056
budget: banked $670 debit $474 (71% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$196 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,341/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.49/sh	-$491 cycle +$179 [-$1,398…-$32] · 24% credit	67% surv 53%	-$14,827 NOT cap gain +$7,553

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (1.2σ)	$670	$-14,336	+$8,044	+$630
+2.5%	$46.12 (1.4σ)	$-455	$-14,211	+$8,169	-$495
+5%	$47.25 (1.6σ)	$-1,580	$-14,086	+$8,294	-$1,620
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-10,480	$-13,098	+$9,282	-$10,370

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$44	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$20 cycle +$1,440 [-$1,349…-$263] · 19% credit	72% surv 63%	-$15,080 NOT cap gain +$7,300
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$42	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.36/sh	-$363 cycle +$1,057 [-$1,450…-$581] · 12% credit	67% surv 53%	-$17,837 NOT cap gain +$4,543
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	24d left	-$1.36/sh	-$1,360 cycle +$60 [-$3,085…-$1,740] · 1% credit	80% surv 77%	-$10,905 NOT cap gain +$11,475
budget: banked $1,420 debit $1,360 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$60 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,927/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $41.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $41-43.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $43.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$41.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,420	$-17,474	+$4,906	+$1,380
+2.5%	$42.54 (≤1σ, normal week)	$383	$-17,359	+$5,021	+$343
+5%	$43.58 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-655	$-17,244	+$5,136	-$695
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-13,230	$-15,848	+$6,532	-$13,120

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$52	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.30/sh	+$301 cycle +$401 [-$93…+$1,571] · 73% credit	68% surv 55%	-$6,675 NOT cap gain +$15,705
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$53	21 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.06/sh	-$57 cycle +$43 [-$499…+$1,190] · 62% credit	70% surv 58%	-$5,922 NOT cap gain +$16,458
budget: banked $100 debit $57 (57% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,473/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$52	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.79/sh	-$794 cycle -$694 [-$1,220…+$321] · 35% credit	67% surv 53%	-$7,923 NOT cap gain +$14,457

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $51.48	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $51-52.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $52.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$52.00 (2.4σ)	$100	$-7,129	+$15,251	+$60
+2.5%	$53.30 (2.7σ)	$-1,200	$-6,984	+$15,396	-$1,240
+5%	$54.60 (2.9σ)	$-2,500	$-6,840	+$15,540	-$2,540
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-4,050	$-6,668	+$15,712	-$3,940

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.34/sh	+$345 cycle +$425 [-$262…+$1,540] · 70% credit	68% surv 55%	-$7,762 NOT cap gain +$14,618
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$52	21 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.01/sh	-$13 cycle +$67 [-$716…+$1,126] · 61% credit	70% surv 58%	-$7,009 NOT cap gain +$15,371
budget: banked $80 debit $13 (16% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,441/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$51	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.75/sh	-$747 cycle -$667 [-$1,406…+$246] · 36% credit	67% surv 53%	-$9,007 NOT cap gain +$13,373

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $50.49	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-51.24	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $51.24	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$51.00 (2.3σ)	$80	$-8,260	+$14,120	+$40
+2.5%	$52.27 (2.5σ)	$-1,195	$-8,118	+$14,262	-$1,235
+5%	$53.55 (2.7σ)	$-2,470	$-7,977	+$14,403	-$2,510
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-5,070	$-7,688	+$14,692	-$4,960

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.39/sh	+$387 cycle +$577 [-$46…+$1,303] · 74% credit	68% surv 55%	-$8,721 NOT cap gain +$13,659
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.03/sh	+$29 cycle +$219 [-$447…+$900] · 58% credit	70% surv 58%	-$7,968 NOT cap gain +$14,412
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.70/sh	-$701 cycle -$511 [-$1,198…+$47] · 26% credit	67% surv 53%	-$9,962 NOT cap gain +$12,418

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-50.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $50.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$50.00 (2.1σ)	$190	$-9,261	+$13,119	+$150
+2.5%	$51.25 (2.3σ)	$-1,060	$-9,122	+$13,258	-$1,100
+5%	$52.50 (2.5σ)	$-2,310	$-8,983	+$13,397	-$2,350
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-5,960	$-8,578	+$13,802	-$5,850

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.41/sh	+$407 cycle +$597 [-$71…+$1,106] · 73% credit	68% surv 55%	-$9,256 NOT cap gain +$13,124
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.01/sh	+$6 cycle +$196 [-$646…+$660] · 52% credit	70% surv 60%	-$7,991 NOT cap gain +$14,389
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.68/sh	-$679 cycle -$489 [-$1,195…-$86] · 22% credit	67% surv 53%	-$10,495 NOT cap gain +$11,885

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $49-49.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$49.50 (2.0σ)	$190	$-9,816	+$12,564	+$150
+2.5%	$50.74 (2.2σ)	$-1,047	$-9,679	+$12,701	-$1,087
+5%	$51.98 (2.4σ)	$-2,285	$-9,542	+$12,838	-$2,325
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-6,460	$-9,078	+$13,302	-$6,350

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.43/sh	+$427 cycle +$657 [-$157…+$1,406] · 71% credit	68% surv 55%	-$9,752 NOT cap gain +$12,628
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$23 cycle +$253 [-$676…+$831] · 52% credit	70% surv 60%	-$8,489 NOT cap gain +$13,891
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$49	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.66/sh	-$657 cycle -$427 [-$1,202…+$115] · 27% credit	67% surv 53%	-$10,989 NOT cap gain +$11,391

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $48.51	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $49-49.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$49.00 (1.9σ)	$230	$-10,332	+$12,048	+$190
+2.5%	$50.22 (2.1σ)	$-995	$-10,196	+$12,184	-$1,035
+5%	$51.45 (2.3σ)	$-2,220	$-10,060	+$12,320	-$2,260
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-6,920	$-9,538	+$12,842	-$6,810

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.45/sh	+$446 cycle +$526 [-$218…+$1,452] · 70% credit	68% surv 55%	-$10,438 NOT cap gain +$11,942
Max even-money escape in the band	~$50	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$39 cycle +$119 [-$836…+$879] · 50% credit	70% surv 60%	-$9,179 NOT cap gain +$13,201
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.64/sh	-$635 cycle -$555 [-$1,328…+$161] · 26% credit	67% surv 53%	-$11,672 NOT cap gain +$10,708

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $48.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.93	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.93	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 29 active short call(s) 2 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$12.65	$16.07	$0.04	$0.04	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.35 OTM = 26.4% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $0.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$400 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $16.07 (breakeven).
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (21d)	$158.10	$216.23	$1.54	$1.54	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 51.90 OTM = 32.8% (6.2x a typical daily move). The $1.54 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$15,443 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $216.23 (breakeven).
IGV	Main:1299	12x $93.5C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$88.31	$94.30	$0.35	$0.35	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.19 OTM = 5.9% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $0.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$899 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $94.30 (breakeven).
MDB	Neville:0865	1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$299.24	$331.10	$4.90	$4.90	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 25.76 OTM = 8.6% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $4.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$605 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $331.10 (breakeven).
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$964.10	$1,069.99	$26.40	$26.40	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 85.90 OTM = 8.9% (1.3x a typical daily move). The $26.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,069.99 (breakeven).
COPX	Joint:1782	20x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$77.92	$85.40	$0.47	$0.47	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.08 OTM = 9.1% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $0.47 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$705 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $85.40 (breakeven).
AMZN	Joint:1782	10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$233.55	$257.58	$2.04	$2.04	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.45 OTM = 9.2% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $2.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,534 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $257.58 (breakeven).
APP	RetireInc:7291	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$398.37	$441.92	$4.55	$4.55	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 36.63 OTM = 9.2% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $4.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$687 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $441.92 (breakeven).
MARA-LC40	Main:1299	100x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$12.65	$14.71	$0.14	$0.14	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.85 OTM = 14.6% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $0.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,600 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $14.71 (breakeven).
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2x $1125C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$964.10	$1,146.25	$11.70	$11.70	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 160.90 OTM = 16.7% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $11.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,240 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,146.25 (breakeven).
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6x $83C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$68.69	$84.05	$0.43	$0.43	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.31 OTM = 20.8% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $0.43 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$602 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.05 (breakeven).
RIOT	Joint:1782	50x $30C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$23.56	$30.21	$0.19	$0.19	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.44 OTM = 27.3% (3.8x a typical daily move). The $0.19 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $30.21 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20x $51C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$39.72	$51.96	$0.29	$0.29	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.28 OTM = 28.4% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $0.29 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,813 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $51.96 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)	$39.72	$55.50	$0.22	$0.22	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.28 OTM = 38.5% (4.7x a typical daily move). The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$905 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.50 (breakeven).
META	Main:1299	3x $637.5C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)	$604.98	$654.07	$17.48	$17.48	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.52 OTM = 5.4% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $17.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,955 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $654.07 (breakeven).
NVDA	Neville:0865	5x $220C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)	$208.33	$224.27	$2.24	$2.24	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.67 OTM = 5.6% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $2.24 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,110 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.27 (breakeven).
NEM	Main:1299	5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)	$93.48	$107.00	$1.42	$1.42	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.52 OTM = 13.4% (4.2x a typical daily move). The $1.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$476 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $107.00 (breakeven).
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)	$170.43	$210.57	$1.56	$1.56	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 37.07 OTM = 21.8% (4.4x a typical daily move). The $1.56 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,510 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $210.57 (breakeven).
CRWV	Neville:0865	5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)	$78.76	$100.20	$1.69	$1.69	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.24 OTM = 23.2% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $1.69 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,577 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.20 (breakeven).
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)	$16.34	$20.75	$0.18	$0.18	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.16 OTM = 25.4% (4.5x a typical daily move). The $0.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,013 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $20.75 (breakeven).
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)	$39.72	$55.87	$0.55	$0.55	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.28 OTM = 38.5% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,638 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.87 (breakeven).
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)	$39.72	$55.85	$0.55	$0.55	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.28 OTM = 38.5% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,610 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.85 (breakeven).
SPCX	Neville:0865	5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)	$115.61	$167.67	$1.75	$1.75	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 49.39 OTM = 42.7% (4.9x a typical daily move). The $1.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,308 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $167.67 (breakeven).
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (21d)	$158.10	$198.70	$4.17	$4.17	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 36.90 OTM = 23.3% (4.5x a typical daily move). The $4.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,095 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $198.70 (breakeven).
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (21d)	$5.47	$7.35	$0.20	$0.20	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.53 OTM = 28.0% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $7.35 (breakeven).
GLD	Main:1299	10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (28d)	$371.55	$396.32	$2.92	$2.92	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.45 OTM = 5.0% (3.7x a typical daily move). The $2.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,268 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $396.32 (breakeven).
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (28d)	$446.23	$505.00	$29.48	$29.48	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.77 OTM = 6.4% (1.3x a typical daily move). The $29.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,985 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $505.00 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $42C 21 Aug 2026 (28d)	$33.66	$44.35	$1.75	$1.75	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.34 OTM = 24.8% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $1.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,450 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $44.35 (breakeven).
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (28d)	$158.10	$210.42	$3.35	$3.35	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 41.90 OTM = 26.5% (5.1x a typical daily move). The $3.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,298 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $210.42 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress

Acct

Price

CC-SS

↑ whole

Sell strike

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income @ strike

Normal income

Action

MARA-LC40 ↗⚡ER 14d

Main:1299

100

$12.68

$15.18

19.8%

$15.50 7 Aug 2026 (14d) · 87% surv

28%

$1,300

$2,786/mo (21%)

$12,964/mo

sell 100x $15.50 CC SIM ▾

GOOG-LC310 ↗

Joint:1782

$319.89

$341.05

6.6%

$342.50 7 Aug 2026 (14d) · 86% surv

29%

$885

$1,896/mo (21%)

$9,054/mo

sell 5x $342.50 CC SIM ▾

GOOG-LC300 ↗

Neville:0865

$319.89

$340.35

6.4%

$342.50 7 Aug 2026 (14d) · 86% surv

29%

$2,655

$5,689/mo (21%)

$27,161/mo

sell 15x $342.50 CC SIM ▾

CLSK ↗⚡ER 14d

RetireInc:7291

$15.32

$17.42

13.6%

$17.50 31 Jul 2026 (7d) · 84% surv

34%

$350

$1,500/mo (29%)

$5,089/mo

sell 25x $17.50 CC SIM ▾

INTC ↗

Neville:0865

$100.44

$116.08

15.6%

$117 7 Aug 2026 (14d) · 83% surv

35%

$790

$1,693/mo (28%)

$6,118/mo

sell 5x $117 CC SIM ▾

SPY ↗

Neville:0865

$739.45

$693.17

0.0%

$749 29 Jul 2026 (5d) · 82% surv

37%

$1,404

$8,424/mo (35%)

$24,249/mo

sell 12x $749 CC SIM ▾

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 7 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$16.34	$39.13	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 58.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$16.34	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 46.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$16.34	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 63.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.05	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 18.9% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$36.39	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$12.65	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$12.65	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.1% below BE SS

CAPPED: 28 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.13	50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (21d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (28d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (21d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (28d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (28d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $42C 21 Aug 2026 (28d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $94C 31 Jul 2026 (7d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $51C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$22.69	200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (7d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)]
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $638C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1125C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $220C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $208C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)
RIOT	Joint:1782	50	$23.65	50x $30C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $83C 31 Jul 2026 (7d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (14d)
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.45	25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (21d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 887 of 1737 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	71	55%	85%	+29pp
60-70%	115	64%	88%	+24pp
70-80%	162	77%	98%	+22pp
80-90%	199	84%	99%	+15pp
90-100%	340	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 100 real buyback(s) recorded · 35 roll(s), net +$1.31/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 --all | 2026-07-24 21:40

Gross FIGHT income	$1,243/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-57%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,098/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,640
… as % of IC ($7,300)	145.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	22.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,570

Gross FIGHT income	$2,044/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,908/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,160
… as % of IC ($7,300)	152.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	23.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-20,331

Gross FIGHT income	$2,871/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,727/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,260
… as % of IC ($7,300)	181.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	28.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,515

Gross FIGHT income	$6,086/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,941/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,010
… as % of IC ($7,300)	219.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	33.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,550

Gross FIGHT income	$429/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-85%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	7% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$284/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,830
… as % of IC ($7,300)	93.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	14.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,475

Gross FIGHT income	$343/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-88%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$198/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,850
… as % of IC ($7,300)	107.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	16.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,545

Gross FIGHT income	$814/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-72%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$670/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,740
… as % of IC ($7,300)	119.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	18.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,485

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,240
… as % of IC ($7,300)	126.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	19.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,545

Gross FIGHT income	$986/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-66%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	17% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$841/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,700
… as % of IC ($7,300)	132.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	20.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,545

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,350
… as % of IC ($7,300)	141.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	21.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,730

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.50 (1.8σ)	$80	$-11,037	+$11,343	+$40
+2.5%	$49.71 (2.0σ)	$-1,132	$-10,903	+$11,477	-$1,172
+5%	$50.93 (2.2σ)	$-2,345	$-10,768	+$11,612	-$2,385
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-7,570	$-10,188	+$12,192	-$7,460

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,240
… as % of IC ($7,300)	154.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	23.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,670

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.50 (1.6σ)	$190	$-12,038	+$10,342	+$150
+2.5%	$48.69 (1.8σ)	$-997	$-11,906	+$10,474	-$1,037
+5%	$49.88 (2.1σ)	$-2,185	$-11,775	+$10,605	-$2,225
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-8,460	$-11,078	+$11,302	-$8,350

Gross FIGHT income	$1,114/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-61%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$970/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,670
… as % of IC ($7,300)	159.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	24.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,640

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (1.5σ)	$260	$-12,524	+$9,856	+$220
+2.5%	$48.17 (1.8σ)	$-915	$-12,393	+$9,987	-$955
+5%	$49.35 (2.0σ)	$-2,090	$-12,263	+$10,117	-$2,130
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-8,890	$-11,508	+$10,872	-$8,780

Gross FIGHT income	$1,371/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-52%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,227/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,110
… as % of IC ($7,300)	165.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	25.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,650

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.03	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-47.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.50 (1.5σ)	$320	$-13,019	+$9,361	+$280
+2.5%	$47.66 (1.7σ)	$-842	$-12,890	+$9,490	-$882
+5%	$48.83 (1.9σ)	$-2,005	$-12,761	+$9,619	-$2,045
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-9,330	$-11,948	+$10,432	-$9,220

Gross FIGHT income	$2,229/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-22%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	39% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,084/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,910
… as % of IC ($7,300)	176.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	27.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,635

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-46.27	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.27	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.50 (1.3σ)	$520	$-13,930	+$8,450	+$480
+2.5%	$46.64 (1.5σ)	$-617	$-13,804	+$8,576	-$657
+5%	$47.77 (1.7σ)	$-1,755	$-13,678	+$8,702	-$1,795
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-10,130	$-12,748	+$9,632	-$10,020

Gross FIGHT income	$3,129/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	+9%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,984/mo