FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

46 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 13 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 2 uncapped above water | 23 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $97,650/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $6,366/mo ⚠ 4 negative E[net] ⚡ $27,728/mo of that is earnings-blocked (4 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $321,890 locked in if all 13 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST					RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	1	$349.16	$609.47	1 × $600 28 Aug (22d) $10 cyc · $14/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:0%hist 1%	1 × $407.50 14 Aug (8d) $190 cyc · $712/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 6%	🎯 1 × $390 14 Aug (8d) $370 cyc · $1,388/mo 84% survhist 95% · T:34%hist 22%	1 × $375 14 Aug (8d) $630 cyc · $2,362/mo 75% survhist 92% · T:53%hist 43%	1 × $357.50 14 Aug (8d) $1,130 cyc · $4,238/mo 60% survhist 78% · T:83%hist 81%	$2,111	-$21,577 (168.6% IC)	74.6%
CLSK ↗⚡ER TODAY RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	25	$12.91	$17.28	25 × $17.50 21 Aug (15d)⚡ $275 cyc · $550/mo 93% survhist 99% · T:16%hist 6%	25 × $16 14 Aug (8d) $325 cyc · $1,219/mo 93% survhist 99% · T:14%hist 6%	🎯⚡ 22 × $15 14 Aug (8d) $528 cyc · $1,980/mo 83% survhist 95% · T:37%hist 22%	24 × $14 14 Aug (8d) $768 cyc · $2,880/mo 71% survhist 92% · T:62%hist 55%	24 × $13.50 14 Aug (8d) $1,560 cyc · $5,850/mo 64% survhist 78% · T:75%hist 59%	-	-$4,480 (47.9% IC)	33.8%
COIN-LC145 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	3	$147.44	$189.37	3 × $190 21 Aug (15d) $207 cyc · $414/mo 95% survhist 99% · T:11%hist 6%	3 × $170 14 Aug (8d) $288 cyc · $1,080/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:16%hist 6%	🎯 3 × $165 14 Aug (8d) $483 cyc · $1,811/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:30%hist 18%	3 × $160 14 Aug (8d) $762 cyc · $2,858/mo 79% survhist 92% · T:44%hist 32%	3 × $152.50 14 Aug (8d) $1,245 cyc · $4,669/mo 64% survhist 78% · T:74%hist 59%	$1,491	-$6,827 (114.9% IC)	28.4%
CRWV ↗⚡ER 5d Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$85.92	$128.37	5 × $130 21 Aug (15d)⚡ $260 cyc · $520/mo 96% survhist 99% · T:8%hist 1%	5 × $110 14 Aug (8d) $600 cyc · $2,250/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 6%	5 × $105 14 Aug (8d) $905 cyc · $3,394/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:29%hist 18%	🎯⚡ 5 × $100 14 Aug (8d) $1,330 cyc · $4,988/mo 80% survhist 95% · T:42%hist 32%	5 × $92 14 Aug (8d) $2,300 cyc · $8,625/mo 67% survhist 78% · T:71%hist 59%	$301	-$12,855 (125.7% IC)	49.4%
ENPH ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	10	$37.80	$58.99	10 × $60 21 Aug (15d) $20 cyc · $40/mo 99% survhist 99% · T:3%hist 1%	10 × $47 14 Aug (8d) $80 cyc · $300/mo 96% survhist 99% · T:7%hist 1%	🎯 9 × $42 14 Aug (8d) $405 cyc · $1,519/mo 82% survhist 95% · T:38%hist 22%	9 × $41 14 Aug (8d) $594 cyc · $2,228/mo 76% survhist 92% · T:50%hist 32%	9 × $39 14 Aug (8d) $1,170 cyc · $4,388/mo 62% survhist 78% · T:79%hist 59%	$2,164	-$14,882 (203.9% IC)	56.0%
IREN-LC25-1299 ↗⚡ER 21d Main:1299 · Next Fri	20	$37.32	$49.67	20 × $50 21 Aug (15d) $1,200 cyc · $2,400/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6%	—	19 × $45 14 Aug (8d) $1,254 cyc · $4,702/mo 87% survhist 95% · T:27%hist 18%	🎯 20 × $43 14 Aug (8d) $1,920 cyc · $7,200/mo 81% survhist 95% · T:39%hist 22%	20 × $39.50 14 Aug (8d) $3,960 cyc · $14,850/mo 66% survhist 78% · T:72%hist 59%	-	-$11,415 (35.7% IC)	33.1%
IREN-LC25-1782 ↗⚡ER 21d Joint:1782 · Next Fri	20	$37.32	$49.67	20 × $50 21 Aug (15d) $1,200 cyc · $2,400/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6%	—	19 × $45 14 Aug (8d) $1,254 cyc · $4,702/mo 87% survhist 95% · T:27%hist 18%	🎯 20 × $43 14 Aug (8d) $1,920 cyc · $7,200/mo 81% survhist 95% · T:39%hist 22%	20 × $39.50 14 Aug (8d) $3,960 cyc · $14,850/mo 66% survhist 78% · T:72%hist 59%	-	-$11,415 (35.7% IC)	33.1%
IREN-LC45 ↗⚡ER 21d Neville:0865 · Next Fri	20	$37.32	$58.90	20 × $60 21 Aug (15d) $200 cyc · $400/mo 98% survhist 99% · T:4%hist 1%	20 × $47 14 Aug (8d) $740 cyc · $2,775/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6%	19 × $45 14 Aug (8d) $1,254 cyc · $4,702/mo 87% survhist 95% · T:27%hist 18%	🎯 20 × $43 14 Aug (8d) $1,920 cyc · $7,200/mo 81% survhist 95% · T:39%hist 22%	20 × $39.50 14 Aug (8d) $3,960 cyc · $14,850/mo 66% survhist 78% · T:72%hist 59%	$2,054	-$29,880 (498.0% IC)	57.8%
IREN-LC50 ↗⚡ER 21d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	20	$37.32	$67.38	20 × $70 21 Aug (15d) $120 cyc · $240/mo 99% survhist 99% · T:2%hist 1%	20 × $47 14 Aug (8d) $740 cyc · $2,775/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6%	19 × $45 14 Aug (8d) $1,254 cyc · $4,702/mo 87% survhist 95% · T:27%hist 18%	🎯 20 × $43 14 Aug (8d) $1,920 cyc · $7,200/mo 81% survhist 95% · T:39%hist 22%	20 × $39.50 14 Aug (8d) $3,960 cyc · $14,850/mo 66% survhist 78% · T:72%hist 59%	$853	-$46,847 (341.9% IC)	80.6%
MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER TODAY Main:1299 · Next Fri	200	$10.83	$14.92	200 × $15 28 Aug (22d)⚡ $3,000 cyc · $4,091/mo 93% survhist 99% · T:15%hist 6%	200 × $13.50 14 Aug (8d) $1,800 cyc · $6,750/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6%	181 × $13 14 Aug (8d) $2,715 cyc · $10,181/mo 88% survhist 95% · T:25%hist 18%	🎯⚡ 187 × $12.50 14 Aug (8d) $4,114 cyc · $15,428/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:30%hist 22%	187 × $11.50 14 Aug (8d) $8,228 cyc · $30,855/mo 69% survhist 78% · T:66%hist 55%	$714	-$41,146 (374.1% IC)	37.8%
RKLB ↗⚡ER 4d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	6	$72.95	$148.21	6 × $150 21 Aug (15d)⚡ $12 cyc · $24/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:1%hist 1%	6 × $88 14 Aug (8d) $846 cyc · $3,172/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:21%hist 18%	6 × $89 14 Aug (8d) $762 cyc · $2,858/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6%	🎯⚡ 6 × $85 14 Aug (8d) $1,182 cyc · $4,432/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:30%hist 22%	6 × $77 14 Aug (8d) $2,400 cyc · $9,000/mo 65% survhist 78% · T:74%hist 59%	$1,314	-$36,741 (230.6% IC)	103.1%
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
HIMS Main:1299	15	$30.71	$17.47 BE	+75.8% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
SPY Neville:0865	12	$769.78	$764.00 BE	+0.8% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
COIN-LC500 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$147.44	$340.76	—	25 × $170 14 Aug (8d) $2,400 cyc · $9,000/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:16%hist 6%	🎯 21 × $165 14 Aug (8d) $3,381 cyc · $12,679/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:30%hist 18%	20 × $160 14 Aug (8d) $5,080 cyc · $19,050/mo 79% survhist 92% · T:44%hist 32%	25 × $152.50 14 Aug (8d) $10,375 cyc · $38,906/mo 64% survhist 78% · T:74%hist 59%	$6,995	-$365,705 (232.2% IC)	131.1%
GLXY ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$18.73	$33.50	125 × $34 14 Aug (8d) $125 cyc · $469/mo 99% survhist 99% · T:1%hist 1%	🎯 125 × $24 21 Aug (15d)alt tenor $1,625 cyc · $3,250/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 6%	66 × $20.50 14 Aug (8d) $2,574 cyc · $9,652/mo 75% survhist 92% · T:52%hist 43%	100 × $20.50 14 Aug (8d) $3,900 cyc · $14,625/mo 75% survhist 92% · T:52%hist 43%	103 × $19 14 Aug (8d) $7,828 cyc · $29,355/mo 57% survhist 77% · T:92%hist 89%	$879	-$117,121 (424.0% IC)	78.9%
TOTAL (13)	480	following every 🎯 $21,098 cyc · $76,274/mo		$6,629 cyc · $11,561/mo 12 of 13	$9,634 cyc · $33,284/mo 11 of 13	$17,139 cyc · $64,271/mo	$26,040 cyc · $97,650/mo	$52,076 cyc · $195,285/mo	$18,875	-$720,892

Spot \ Time	≥ 12d left	3-11d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $594.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $594-601.95	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $601.95	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$600.00 (3.7σ)	$10	$-736	+$26,574	+$7,000
+2.5%	$615.00 (3.9σ)	$-1,490	$-648	+$26,662	+$7,000
+5%	$630.00 (4.2σ)	$-2,990	$-559	+$26,751	+$7,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$408	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$3.38/sh	+$338 cycle +$528 [+$180…+$600] · 89% credit	66% surv 52%	-$20,604 NOT cap gain +$6,706
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$408	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$3.02/sh	+$302 cycle +$492 [+$138…+$562] · 87% credit	67% surv 53%	-$20,551 NOT cap gain +$6,759
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$413	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.96/sh	+$296 cycle +$486 [+$50…+$598] · 77% credit	67% surv 57%	-$20,027 NOT cap gain +$7,283
Max even-money escape in the band	~$418	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.03/sh	+$103 cycle +$293 [-$192…+$384] · 57% credit	69% surv 60%	-$19,691 NOT cap gain +$7,619
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$423	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.96/sh	-$96 cycle +$94 [-$432…+$178] · 38% credit	70% surv 63%	-$19,360 NOT cap gain +$7,950
budget: banked $190 debit $96 (51% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$94 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,379/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $403.43	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $403-411.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $411.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$407.50 (1.4σ)	$190	$-20,942	+$6,368	+$180
+2.5%	$417.69 (1.7σ)	$-829	$-20,882	+$6,428	-$839
+5%	$427.88 (1.9σ)	$-1,848	$-20,822	+$6,488	-$1,858
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (5.9σ)	$-17,860	$-19,877	+$7,433	-$12,070

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$3.73/sh	+$373 cycle +$743 [+$152…+$528] · 89% credit	66% surv 53%	-$22,242 NOT cap gain +$5,068
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$391	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$3.37/sh	+$337 cycle +$707 [+$112…+$488] · 85% credit	67% surv 53%	-$22,189 NOT cap gain +$5,121
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$396	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$3.31/sh	+$331 cycle +$701 [-$1…+$482] · 75% credit	67% surv 57%	-$21,666 NOT cap gain +$5,644
Max even-money escape in the band	~$401	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.37/sh	+$137 cycle +$507 [-$244…+$258] · 49% credit	69% surv 60%	-$21,330 NOT cap gain +$5,980
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$411	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$2.46/sh	-$246 cycle +$124 [-$703…-$146] · 17% credit	72% surv 66%	-$20,654 NOT cap gain +$6,656
budget: banked $370 debit $246 (66% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,020/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $386.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $386-394.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $394.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$390.00 (1.0σ)	$370	$-22,615	+$4,695	+$360
+2.5%	$399.75 (1.2σ)	$-605	$-22,558	+$4,752	-$615
+5%	$409.50 (1.5σ)	$-1,580	$-22,500	+$4,810	-$1,590
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (5.9σ)	$-19,430	$-21,447	+$5,863	-$13,640

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$375	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$4.00/sh	+$400 cycle +$1,030 [+$129…+$398] · 90% credit	66% surv 53%	-$23,544 NOT cap gain +$3,766
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$381	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$3.57/sh	+$357 cycle +$987 [-$36…+$327] · 69% credit	68% surv 57%	-$22,968 NOT cap gain +$4,342
Max even-money escape in the band	~$386	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.63/sh	+$163 cycle +$793 [-$280…+$110] · 35% credit	69% surv 60%	-$22,633 NOT cap gain +$4,677
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$381	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.06/sh	+$6 cycle +$636 [-$357…-$38] · 21% credit	68% surv 57%	-$23,319 NOT cap gain +$3,991
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$411	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$6.28/sh	-$628 cycle +$2 [-$1,239…-$757] · 2% credit	77% surv 73%	-$20,776 NOT cap gain +$6,534
budget: banked $630 debit $628 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,290/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $371.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $371-382.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $382.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$375.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$630	$-23,944	+$3,366	+$620
+2.5%	$384.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-307	$-23,888	+$3,422	-$317
+5%	$393.75 (1.1σ)	$-1,245	$-23,833	+$3,477	-$1,255
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (5.9σ)	$-20,670	$-22,687	+$4,623	-$14,880

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$358	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$7.64/sh	+$764 cycle +$1,894 [+$327…+$580] · 97% credit	67% surv 54%	-$24,444 NOT cap gain +$2,866
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$358	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$4.27/sh	+$427 cycle +$1,557 [+$65…+$276] · 84% credit	67% surv 53%	-$24,870 NOT cap gain +$2,440
Max even-money escape in the band	~$368	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.88/sh	+$188 cycle +$1,318 [-$402…-$48] · 20% credit	69% surv 60%	-$23,961 NOT cap gain +$3,349
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$363	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.37/sh	+$37 cycle +$1,167 [-$443…-$155] · 13% credit	68% surv 57%	-$24,641 NOT cap gain +$2,669
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$408	21 Aug 2026	11d left	-$9.92/sh	-$992 cycle +$138 [-$1,831…-$1,303]	87% surv 85%	-$20,904 NOT cap gain +$6,406
budget: banked $1,130 debit $992 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$138 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $940/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $353.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $354-370.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $370.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$357.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,130	$-25,297	+$2,013	+$1,120
+2.5%	$366.44 (≤1σ, normal week)	$236	$-25,244	+$2,066	+$226
+5%	$375.38 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-658	$-25,191	+$2,119	-$668
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (5.9σ)	$-21,920	$-23,937	+$3,373	-$16,130

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	28 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.12/sh	-$293 cycle -$18 [-$598…+$421] · 42% credit	67% surv 55%	+$319 SAFE cap gain +$9,357

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.91	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.91	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.7σ)	$275	$613	+$9,650	+$150
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.9σ)	$-819	$412	+$9,450	-$944
+5%	$18.38 (2.0σ)	$-1,912	$212	+$9,250	-$2,038
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (2.9σ)	$-7,825	$-870	+$8,168	-$6,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.29/sh	+$720 cycle +$1,045 [+$524…+$1,305] · 94% credit	69% surv 54%	-$1,681 NOT cap gain +$7,357
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$123 cycle +$448 [-$290…+$715] · 62% credit	70% surv 61%	-$1,073 NOT cap gain +$7,965
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.02/sh	+$61 cycle +$386 [-$291…+$509] · 59% credit	72% surv 61%	-$1,135 NOT cap gain +$7,903
Max even-money escape in the band	~$17	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.02/sh	+$61 cycle +$386 [-$291…+$509] · 59% credit	72% surv 61%	-$1,135 NOT cap gain +$7,903
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.21	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.21	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (1.6σ)	$325	$-2,401	+$6,636	+$200
+2.5%	$16.40 (1.8σ)	$-675	$-2,584	+$6,453	-$800
+5%	$16.80 (2.0σ)	$-1,675	$-2,767	+$6,270	-$1,800
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.0σ)	$-11,525	$-4,570	+$4,468	-$9,800

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (22 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$15	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.26/sh	+$581 cycle +$1,109 [+$314…+$850] · 94% credit	70% surv 55%	-$3,461 NOT cap gain +$5,577
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$15	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.26/sh	+$575 cycle +$1,103 [+$292…+$849] · 93% credit	69% surv 54%	-$3,651 NOT cap gain +$5,386
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.00/sh	+$5 cycle +$533 [-$424…+$165] · 36% credit	72% surv 61%	-$3,016 NOT cap gain +$6,022
Max even-money escape in the band	~$16	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.00/sh	+$5 cycle +$533 [-$424…+$165] · 36% credit	72% surv 61%	-$3,016 NOT cap gain +$6,022
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$17	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.23/sh	-$495 cycle +$33 [-$1,078…-$321] · 15% credit	80% surv 74%	-$452 NOT cap gain +$8,585
budget: banked $528 debit $495 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $2,742/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $15-15.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $15.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$15.00 (1.1σ)	$528	$-4,226	+$4,812	+$418
+2.5%	$15.37 (1.2σ)	$-297	$-4,285	+$4,753	-$407
+5%	$15.75 (1.4σ)	$-1,122	$-4,344	+$4,694	-$1,232
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.0σ)	$-12,100	$-5,352	+$3,686	-$10,582

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (24 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$14	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.23/sh	+$560 cycle +$1,328 [+$136…+$561] · 86% credit	70% surv 55%	-$5,294 NOT cap gain +$3,743
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$14	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$565 cycle +$1,333 [+$117…+$562] · 84% credit	69% surv 54%	-$5,473 NOT cap gain +$3,564
Max even-money escape in the band	~$15	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.00/sh	+$11 cycle +$779 [-$777…-$80] · 21% credit	71% surv 62%	-$4,823 NOT cap gain +$4,215
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$16	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.26/sh	-$619 cycle +$149 [-$1,467…-$763] · 5% credit	81% surv 76%	-$2,388 NOT cap gain +$6,649
budget: banked $768 debit $619 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$149 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $2,475/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $14-14.49	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $14.49	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$14.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$768	$-6,038	+$2,999	+$648
+2.5%	$14.35 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-72	$-6,163	+$2,874	-$192
+5%	$14.70 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-912	$-6,288	+$2,749	-$1,032
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.0σ)	$-15,408	$-8,522	+$516	-$13,752

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (24 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$14	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.22/sh	+$525 cycle +$2,085 [+$54…+$371] · 81% credit	70% surv 55%	-$5,559 NOT cap gain +$3,479
Max even-money escape in the band	~$14	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.22/sh	+$525 cycle +$2,085 [+$54…+$371] · 81% credit	70% surv 55%	-$5,559 NOT cap gain +$3,479
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$14	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.22/sh	+$535 cycle +$2,095 [+$39…+$375] · 79% credit	69% surv 54%	-$5,732 NOT cap gain +$3,305
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$17	21 Aug 2026	11d left	-$0.62/sh	-$1,499 cycle +$61 [-$2,667…-$1,908]	89% surv 87%	-$1,455 NOT cap gain +$7,583
budget: banked $1,560 debit $1,499 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$61 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $1,346/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.37	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $13-14.26	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $14.26	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 23 active short call(s) 2 TRIPPED · 6 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $215C 28 Aug 2026 (22d)

$221.22

$221.08

$13.38

$7.16

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$359.69

$371.32

$19.62

$14.94

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $108C 7 Aug 2026 (1d)

$95.77

$108.71

$0.13

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $131C 7 Aug 2026 (1d)

$106.82

$132.04

$0.26

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1050C 10 Aug 2026 (4d)

$828.12

$1,056.30

$0.39

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (8d)

$96.44

$113.05

$0.76

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (8d)

$96.44

$113.08

$0.76

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1000C 14 Aug 2026 (8d)

$828.12

$1,026.04

$5.80

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC10

RetireInc:7291

50x $19C 7 Aug 2026 (1d)

$17.92

$19.17

$0.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $160C 7 Aug 2026 (1d)

$148.04

$160.78

$0.40

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UAMY

RetireInc:7291

25x $8.5C 28 Aug 2026 (22d)

$6.17

$8.69

$0.15

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $400C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$389.68

$408.96

$9.00

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$359.69

$374.80

$12.27

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $610C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$588.72

$635.49

$23.88

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$113.73

$124.07

$6.90

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $105C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$98.22

$107.05

$2.06

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $410C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$367.47

$430.48

$23.57

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$86.29

$101.31

$1.60

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NEM

Main:1299

5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$104.19

$125.40

$1.21

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $540C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$431.85

$575.95

$22.18

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC670

Joint:1782

1x $1200C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$828.12

$1,234.20

$16.23

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $230C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)

$156.22

$231.04

$0.71

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $375C 16 Oct 2026 (71d)

$359.69

$391.81

$16.05

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$17.92	$39.13	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 54.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$17.92	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 40.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$17.92	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 59.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.29	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 17.5% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$36.31	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$10.84	$22.69	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$10.84	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$10.84	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 58.9% below BE SS

CAPPED: 23 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.13	50x $19C 7 Aug 2026 (1d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $160C 7 Aug 2026 (1d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $540C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $400C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $375C 16 Oct 2026 (71d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (43d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $105C 18 Sep 2026 (43d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $108C 7 Aug 2026 (1d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $410C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $610C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (8d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (8d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC670	Joint:1782	1	$792.36	1x $1200C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1000C 14 Aug 2026 (8d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1050C 10 Aug 2026 (4d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $215C 28 Aug 2026 (22d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $230C 18 Sep 2026 (43d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $131C 7 Aug 2026 (1d)
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.45	25x $8C 28 Aug 2026 (22d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 1674 of 2156 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	145	55%	70%	+14pp
60-70%	224	64%	71%	+7pp
70-80%	301	76%	91%	+15pp
80-90%	367	85%	92%	+8pp
90-100%	637	94%	98%	+4pp

Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 29% touch rate over 1674 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 118 real buyback(s) recorded · 49 roll(s), net +$0.94/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 49 real rolls: buyback $4.73/sh, replacement credit financed 120% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.94/sh (34 of 49 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-08-06 21:36

Gross FIGHT income	$14/mo
vs 50% target ($2,000/mo)	-99%
vs normal income ($4,000/mo)	0% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$-139/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$937
… as % of IC ($12,800)	7.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	1.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-27,495

Gross FIGHT income	$712/mo
vs 50% target ($2,000/mo)	-64%
vs normal income ($4,000/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$560/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,007
… as % of IC ($12,800)	156.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	41.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-27,550

Gross FIGHT income	$1,388/mo
vs 50% target ($2,000/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($4,000/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,235/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,577
… as % of IC ($12,800)	168.6%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	44.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-27,395

Gross FIGHT income	$2,362/mo
vs 50% target ($2,000/mo)	+18%
vs normal income ($4,000/mo)	59% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,210/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,817
… as % of IC ($12,800)	178.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	47.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-27,445

Gross FIGHT income	$4,238/mo
vs 50% target ($2,000/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($4,000/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,085/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,067
… as % of IC ($12,800)	188.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	49.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-27,460

Gross FIGHT income	$550/mo
vs 50% target ($2,875/mo)	-81%
vs normal income ($5,750/mo)	10% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$550/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($9,350)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-9,800

Gross FIGHT income	$1,219/mo
vs 50% target ($2,875/mo)	-58%
vs normal income ($5,750/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,219/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,866
… as % of IC ($9,350)	30.7%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	10.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-9,250

Gross FIGHT income	$1,980/mo
vs 50% target ($2,875/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($5,750/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,010/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,480
… as % of IC ($9,350)	47.9%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	16.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)	$-8,459

Gross FIGHT income	$2,880/mo
vs 50% target ($2,875/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($5,750/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,890/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,095
… as % of IC ($9,350)	75.9%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	26.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (24 ct)	$-9,096

Gross FIGHT income	$5,850/mo
vs 50% target ($2,875/mo)	+103%
vs normal income ($5,750/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,860/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,503
… as % of IC ($9,350)	80.2%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	27.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (24 ct)	$-8,940

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$13.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,560	$-6,267	+$2,770	+$1,440
+2.5%	$13.84 (≤1σ, normal week)	$750	$-6,388	+$2,649	+$630
+5%	$14.18 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-60	$-6,509	+$2,529	-$180
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.0σ)	$-15,816	$-8,930	+$108	-$14,160

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$193	28 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.66/sh	+$498 cycle +$705 [+$528…+$1,173] · 100% credit	70% surv 56%	+$2,102 SAFE cap gain +$16,082
Max even-money escape in the band	~$193	28 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.66/sh	+$498 cycle +$705 [+$528…+$1,173] · 100% credit	70% surv 56%	+$2,102 SAFE cap gain +$16,082
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$190	28 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.68/sh	+$503 cycle +$710 [+$538…+$1,256] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%	+$1,234 SAFE cap gain +$15,214
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$195	28 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.49/sh	-$146 cycle +$61 [-$152…+$571] · 62% credit	71% surv 60%	+$2,310 SAFE cap gain +$16,290

Gross FIGHT income	$414/mo
vs 50% target ($2,268/mo)	-82%
vs normal income ($4,536/mo)	9% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$308/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($5,940)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($43,440)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-14,003

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $188.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $188-190.76	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $190.76	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$190.00 (2.0σ)	$207	$731	+$14,711	+$2,166
+2.5%	$194.75 (2.2σ)	$-1,218	$925	+$14,905	+$2,166
+5%	$199.50 (2.5σ)	$-2,643	$1,119	+$15,099	+$2,166

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$170	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.94/sh	+$581 cycle +$869 [+$425…+$919] · 95% credit	67% surv 53%	-$5,423 NOT cap gain +$8,557
Max even-money escape in the band	~$180	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.46/sh	+$139 cycle +$427 [-$149…+$498] · 60% credit	74% surv 66%	-$2,436 NOT cap gain +$11,544
SS $182 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$175	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.11/sh	+$33 cycle +$321 [-$198…+$330] · 52% credit	72% surv 61%	-$4,246 NOT cap gain +$9,734
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$183	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.35/sh	-$105 cycle +$183 [-$432…+$228] · 41% credit	76% surv 69%	-$1,828 NOT cap gain +$12,152
budget: banked $288 debit $105 (36% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$183 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,272/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Gross FIGHT income	$1,080/mo
vs 50% target ($2,268/mo)	-52%
vs normal income ($4,536/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$974/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,522
… as % of IC ($5,940)	93.0%
… as % of ML ($43,440)	12.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-14,030

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $168.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $168-171.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $171.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$170.00 (1.5σ)	$288	$-6,004	+$7,976	-$3
+2.5%	$174.25 (1.7σ)	$-987	$-5,830	+$8,150	-$1,278
+5%	$178.50 (2.0σ)	$-2,262	$-5,657	+$8,323	-$2,553
SS (= V-bounce)	$182.40 (2.3σ)	$-3,432	$-5,498	+$8,482	-$3,723

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$165	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.84/sh	+$551 cycle +$1,034 [+$325…+$857] · 96% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,962 NOT cap gain +$7,018
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$173	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.39/sh	+$416 cycle +$899 [+$107…+$743] · 82% credit	73% surv 64%	-$4,520 NOT cap gain +$9,460
Max even-money escape in the band	~$175	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.27/sh	+$82 cycle +$565 [-$285…+$378] · 48% credit	74% surv 67%	-$4,002 NOT cap gain +$9,978
SS $182 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$170	21 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.01/sh	+$2 cycle +$485 [-$289…+$250] · 42% credit	72% surv 61%	-$5,786 NOT cap gain +$8,194
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$180	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.33/sh	-$399 cycle +$84 [-$857…-$158] · 17% credit	78% surv 72%	-$2,779 NOT cap gain +$11,201
budget: banked $483 debit $399 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$84 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,609/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$1,811/mo
vs 50% target ($2,268/mo)	-20%
vs normal income ($4,536/mo)	40% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,705/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,827
… as % of IC ($5,940)	114.9%
… as % of ML ($43,440)	15.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-14,021

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $163.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $163-166.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $166.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.