FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

42 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 12 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 1 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 3 uncapped above water | 18 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $85,250/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $54,608/mo · plus $18,450/mo CC-safe on 1 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $9,174 locked in if all 4 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 1 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
RKLB ↗ ▲ UP +3.5% RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	6	$64.44	$148.58	—	6 × $76 25 Sep (10d)alt tenor $228 cyc · $684/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	6 × $72 18 Sep (3d) $132 cyc · $1,320/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	🎯 5 × $70 18 Sep (3d) $200 cyc · $2,000/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 26%	5 × $68 18 Sep (3d) $360 cyc · $3,600/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:47%hist 39%	$2,602	-$39,092 (245.4% IC)	130.6%
AMZN ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	5	$253.00	$270.26	5 × $272.50 2 Oct (17d) $570 cyc · $1,006/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:25%hist 26%	5 × $265 18 Sep (3d) $160 cyc · $1,600/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14%	4 × $262.50 18 Sep (3d) $212 cyc · $2,120/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:24%hist 26%	🎯 4 × $260 18 Sep (3d) $360 cyc · $3,600/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 30%	4 × $257.50 18 Sep (3d) $580 cyc · $5,800/mo 72% survhist 84% · T:56%hist 44%	$980	-$3,743 (11.0% IC)	6.8%
APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	1	$330.71	$611.40	—	1 × $372.50 25 Sep (10d)alt tenor $205 cyc · $615/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	1 × $357.50 18 Sep (3d) $110 cyc · $1,100/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14%	🎯 1 × $355 18 Sep (3d) $145 cyc · $1,450/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:24%hist 26%	1 × $345 18 Sep (3d) $370 cyc · $3,700/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:48%hist 39%	$2,598	-$25,495 (199.2% IC)	84.9%
COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	20	$85.00	$96.16	20 × $96.50 9 Oct (24d) $1,300 cyc · $1,625/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:26%hist 26%	20 × $91.50 18 Sep (3d) $200 cyc · $2,000/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:7%hist 3%	14 × $90 18 Sep (3d) $350 cyc · $3,500/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:25%hist 26%	🎯 16 × $89 18 Sep (3d) $560 cyc · $5,600/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 30%	20 × $88 18 Sep (3d) $1,100 cyc · $11,000/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:47%hist 39%	$2,500	-$10,893 (19.2% IC)	13.1%
GOOG-LC340 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$343.27	$382.86	5 × $385 9 Oct (24d) $485 cyc · $606/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 14%	5 × $360 18 Sep (3d) $220 cyc · $2,200/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14%	4 × $357.50 18 Sep (3d) $244 cyc · $2,440/mo 90% survhist 86% · T:21%hist 26%	🎯 5 × $355 18 Sep (3d) $435 cyc · $4,350/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 26%	5 × $350 18 Sep (3d) $875 cyc · $8,750/mo 74% survhist 84% · T:52%hist 44%	$24,503	-$13,495 (52.9% IC)	11.5%
IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	20	$42.81	$58.57	20 × $60 9 Oct (24d) $680 cyc · $850/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 14%	20 × $48 18 Sep (3d) $400 cyc · $4,000/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	17 × $48 18 Sep (3d) $340 cyc · $3,400/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	🎯 17 × $47 18 Sep (3d) $510 cyc · $5,100/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 26%	18 × $45.50 18 Sep (3d) $1,008 cyc · $10,080/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:47%hist 39%	$5,005	-$19,158 (319.3% IC)	36.8%
IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	20	$42.81	$66.88	20 × $65 2 Oct (17d) $200 cyc · $353/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:4%hist 3%	20 × $48 18 Sep (3d) $400 cyc · $4,000/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	17 × $48 18 Sep (3d) $340 cyc · $3,400/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	🎯 17 × $47 18 Sep (3d) $510 cyc · $5,100/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 26%	18 × $45.50 18 Sep (3d) $1,008 cyc · $10,080/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:47%hist 39%	$3,610	-$33,286 (243.0% IC)	56.2%
NVDA ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	10	$213.49	$229.47	10 × $230 9 Oct (24d) $1,850 cyc · $2,312/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 30%	10 × $225 18 Sep (3d) $260 cyc · $2,600/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 14%	8 × $222.50 18 Sep (3d) $376 cyc · $3,760/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:22%hist 26%	🎯 6 × $220 18 Sep (3d) $510 cyc · $5,100/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 30%	8 × $217.50 18 Sep (3d) $1,152 cyc · $11,520/mo 71% survhist 84% · T:58%hist 44%	$403	-$5,172 (10.4% IC)	7.5%
SPY ↗ ⚐ Neville:0865 · This Fri	12	$759.87	$704.01	12 × $769 18 Sep (3d) $996 cyc · $9,960/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:26%hist 26%	12 × $780 25 Sep (10d)alt tenor $396 cyc · $1,188/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	12 × $771 18 Sep (3d) $612 cyc · $6,120/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	🎯 11 × $769 18 Sep (3d) $913 cyc · $9,130/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:26%hist 26%	12 × $766 18 Sep (3d) $1,896 cyc · $18,960/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:45%hist 39%	$5,271	-$0 (0.0% IC)	0.0%
SPCX ↗ ▼ DOWN -1.2% Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$146.44	$189.38	5 × $190 9 Oct (24d) $160 cyc · $200/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:5%hist 3%	5 × $165 25 Sep (10d)alt tenor $305 cyc · $915/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14%	5 × $157.50 18 Sep (3d) $205 cyc · $2,050/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	🎯 4 × $155 18 Sep (3d) $272 cyc · $2,720/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 26%	5 × $152.50 18 Sep (3d) $555 cyc · $5,550/mo 78% survhist 84% · T:44%hist 39%	$3,947	-$13,480 (99.9% IC)	29.3%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
GOOG-LC300 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	15	$343.27	$345.38	🎯 15 × $352.50 18 Sep (3d) $1,845 cyc · $18,450/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 30% above floor +$10,683 · hole 0.2mo	15 × $360 18 Sep (3d) $660 cyc · $6,600/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14% above floor +$21,933 · hole 0.5mo	12 × $357.50 18 Sep (3d) $732 cyc · $7,320/mo 90% survhist 86% · T:21%hist 26% above floor +$14,547 · hole 0.4mo	13 × $355 18 Sep (3d) $1,131 cyc · $11,310/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 26% above floor +$12,509 · hole 0.3mo	13 × $350 18 Sep (3d) $2,275 cyc · $22,750/mo 74% survhist 84% · T:52%hist 44% above floor +$6,009 · hole 0.1mo	$31,054	+$10,683 whole if assigned	0.6% whole ~21 Sep on 🎯
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ETHA Main:1299	50	$18.46	$17.33 BE	+6.5% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
HIMS Main:1299	15	$28.93	$17.47 BE	+65.6% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
MU-LC670 Joint:1782	1	$931.33	$792.36 BE	+17.5% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
COIN-LC500 ↗ ▼ DOWN -6.2% Main:1299 · This Fri	25	$180.01	$351.31	—	25 × $202.50 18 Sep (3d) $2,125 cyc · $21,250/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	23 × $205 18 Sep (3d) $1,541 cyc · $15,410/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14%	🎯 22 × $200 18 Sep (3d) $2,310 cyc · $23,100/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 26%	24 × $192.50 18 Sep (3d) $4,728 cyc · $47,280/mo 79% survhist 84% · T:42%hist 39%	$15,088	-$330,570 (209.9% IC)	95.2%
GLXY ↗ ▼ DOWN -4.5% Main:1299 · This Fri	125	$23.07	$34.81	—	125 × $27.50 18 Sep (3d) $625 cyc · $6,250/mo 95% survhist 96% · T:10%hist 3%	118 × $26 18 Sep (3d) $1,180 cyc · $11,800/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 26%	🎯 72 × $25 18 Sep (3d) $1,800 cyc · $18,000/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 39%	106 × $24.50 18 Sep (3d) $3,604 cyc · $36,040/mo 75% survhist 84% · T:52%hist 44%	$6,095	-$68,850 (249.2% IC)	50.9%
TOTAL (13)	269	following every 🎯 $10,370 cyc · $103,700/mo		$8,086 cyc · $35,363/mo 9 of 13	$6,184 cyc · $53,902/mo	$6,374 cyc · $63,740/mo	$9,656 cyc · $96,560/mo	$19,511 cyc · $195,110/mo	$103,654	-$563,233

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$76	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.70/sh	+$419 cycle +$647 [+$354…+$717] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$45,032 NOT cap gain +$7,624
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$79	9 Oct 2026	19d left	+$0.42/sh	+$250 cycle +$478 [+$101…+$592] · 82% credit	72% surv 62%	-$43,655 NOT cap gain +$9,001
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$78	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.03/sh	+$17 cycle +$245 [-$112…+$295] · 60% credit	70% surv 59%	-$44,492 NOT cap gain +$8,164
Max even-money escape in the band	~$80	9 Oct 2026	19d left	+$0.07/sh	+$42 cycle +$270 [-$150…+$362] · 59% credit	73% surv 65%	-$43,260 NOT cap gain +$9,396
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$81	9 Oct 2026	19d left	-$0.28/sh	-$169 cycle +$59 [-$399…+$145] · 34% credit	75% surv 69%	-$42,867 NOT cap gain +$9,789
budget: banked $228 debit $169 (74% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,165/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $75.24	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $75-76.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $76.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$76.00 (1.5σ)	$228	$-45,450	+$7,206	+$222
+2.5%	$77.90 (1.8σ)	$-912	$-45,444	+$7,212	-$918
+5%	$79.80 (2.0σ)	$-2,052	$-45,437	+$7,219	-$2,058
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (10.3σ)	$-39,102	$-45,214	+$7,442	-$20,178

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$72	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$1.21/sh	+$727 cycle +$859 [+$629…+$878] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$47,234 NOT cap gain +$5,422
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$79	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.62/sh	+$370 cycle +$502 [+$10…+$478] · 75% credit	79% surv 73%	-$43,631 NOT cap gain +$9,025
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$75	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.23/sh	+$139 cycle +$271 [-$122…+$235] · 59% credit	74% surv 66%	-$46,276 NOT cap gain +$6,380
Max even-money escape in the band	~$82	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.02/sh	+$13 cycle +$145 [-$451…+$107] · 40% credit	83% surv 80%	-$42,178 NOT cap gain +$10,478
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$83	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.09/sh	-$54 cycle +$78 [-$538…+$39] · 31% credit	85% surv 82%	-$41,641 NOT cap gain +$11,015
budget: banked $132 debit $54 (41% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,153/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $71.28	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $71-72.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $72.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$72.00 (1.8σ)	$132	$-47,961	+$4,695	+$126
+2.5%	$73.80 (2.3σ)	$-948	$-47,954	+$4,702	-$954
+5%	$75.60 (2.7σ)	$-2,028	$-47,948	+$4,708	-$2,034
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (18.8σ)	$-41,598	$-47,710	+$4,946	-$22,674

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$70	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$1.23/sh	+$614 cycle +$814 [+$527…+$703] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$48,485 NOT cap gain +$4,171
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$78	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.38/sh	+$188 cycle +$388 [-$165…+$233] · 60% credit	80% surv 76%	-$44,347 NOT cap gain +$8,309
Max even-money escape in the band	~$80	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$18 cycle +$218 [-$380…+$45] · 34% credit	84% surv 81%	-$43,311 NOT cap gain +$9,345
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$74	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.00/sh	+$1 cycle +$201 [-$278…+$35] · 34% credit	77% surv 71%	-$46,950 NOT cap gain +$5,706
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$82	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.28/sh	-$142 cycle +$58 [-$588…-$123] · 12% credit	86% surv 84%	-$42,264 NOT cap gain +$10,392
budget: banked $200 debit $142 (71% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $800/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $69.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $69-70.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $70.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$70.00 (1.4σ)	$200	$-49,099	+$3,557	+$195
+2.5%	$71.75 (1.8σ)	$-675	$-48,918	+$3,738	-$680
+5%	$73.50 (2.2σ)	$-1,550	$-48,736	+$3,920	-$1,555
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (18.8σ)	$-35,575	$-44,841	+$7,815	-$19,805

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$68	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$1.24/sh	+$621 cycle +$981 [+$496…+$694] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$49,526 NOT cap gain +$3,130
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$75	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.63/sh	+$317 cycle +$677 [-$79…+$330] · 70% credit	79% surv 74%	-$45,870 NOT cap gain +$6,786
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$72	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.02/sh	+$9 cycle +$369 [-$326…+$11] · 26% credit	77% surv 71%	-$47,989 NOT cap gain +$4,667
Max even-money escape in the band	~$78	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$23 cycle +$383 [-$458…+$11] · 26% credit	84% surv 81%	-$44,353 NOT cap gain +$8,303
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$79	2 Oct 2026	16d left	-$0.60/sh	-$298 cycle +$62 [-$836…-$335]	88% surv 86%	-$44,070 NOT cap gain +$8,586
budget: banked $360 debit $298 (83% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $768/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $67.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $67-68.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $68.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$68.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$360	$-50,146	+$2,510	+$355
+2.5%	$69.70 (1.3σ)	$-490	$-49,970	+$2,686	-$495
+5%	$71.40 (1.7σ)	$-1,340	$-49,794	+$2,862	-$1,345
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (18.8σ)	$-36,415	$-45,681	+$6,975	-$20,645

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$272	9 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.97/sh	+$484 cycle +$1,054 [+$363…+$845] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%	+$2,434 SAFE cap gain +$11,369
Max even-money escape in the band	~$270	9 Oct 2026	16d left	+$2.53/sh	+$1,263 cycle +$1,833 [+$1,245…+$1,774] · 100% credit	63% surv 43%	+$1,627 SAFE cap gain +$10,562
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$274	9 Oct 2026	16d left	-$0.02/sh	-$10 cycle +$560 [-$204…+$311] · 46% credit	69% surv 56%	+$2,999 SAFE cap gain +$11,934
budget: banked $570 debit $10 (2% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$560 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,938/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 9d left	3-8d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $269.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $270-273.69	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $273.69	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$272.50 (1.2σ)	$570	$1,950	+$10,886	+$2,615
+2.5%	$279.31 (1.6σ)	$-2,836	$2,148	+$11,083	+$2,615
+5%	$286.12 (2.0σ)	$-6,242	$2,346	+$11,281	+$2,615

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$265	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.57/sh	+$285 cycle +$445 [+$192…+$422] · 91% credit	66% surv 51%	-$2,142 NOT cap gain +$6,793
Max even-money escape in the band	~$277	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.68/sh	+$338 cycle +$498 [-$123…+$507] · 68% credit	80% surv 75%	+$4,259 SAFE cap gain +$13,194
reaches SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $262.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $262-265.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $265.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$265.00 (1.7σ)	$160	$-2,427	+$6,508	-$295
+2.5%	$271.62 (2.7σ)	$-3,152	$-2,235	+$6,700	-$1,545
+5%	$278.25 (3.7σ)	$-6,465	$-2,043	+$6,892	-$1,545

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$262	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.61/sh	+$244 cycle +$456 [+$121…+$343] · 86% credit	66% surv 51%	-$3,363 NOT cap gain +$5,572
Max even-money escape in the band	~$274	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.73/sh	+$291 cycle +$503 [-$192…+$375] · 62% credit	80% surv 75%	+$2,333 SAFE cap gain +$11,268
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$280	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.41/sh	-$163 cycle +$49 [-$770…-$100] · 14% credit	85% surv 82%	+$4,023 SAFE cap gain +$12,958
budget: banked $212 debit $163 (77% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$49 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,091/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $259.88	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $260-263.06	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $263.06	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$262.50 (1.4σ)	$212	$-3,607	+$5,328	-$152
+2.5%	$269.06 (2.3σ)	$-2,413	$-2,916	+$6,019	-$2,152
+5%	$275.62 (3.3σ)	$-5,038	$-2,726	+$6,209	-$2,152

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$260	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.65/sh	+$259 cycle +$619 [+$122…+$338] · 91% credit	66% surv 51%	-$4,522 NOT cap gain +$4,413
Max even-money escape in the band	~$272	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.78/sh	+$312 cycle +$672 [-$155…+$345] · 61% credit	80% surv 75%	+$1,429 SAFE cap gain +$10,364
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$277	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.36/sh	-$145 cycle +$215 [-$725…-$141] · 11% credit	85% surv 82%	+$3,117 SAFE cap gain +$12,052
budget: banked $360 debit $145 (40% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$215 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,103/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $257.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $257-260.93	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $260.93	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$260.00 (1.0σ)	$360	$-4,781	+$4,154	-$4
+2.5%	$266.50 (2.0σ)	$-2,240	$-3,943	+$4,993	-$2,604
+5%	$273.00 (2.9σ)	$-4,840	$-3,654	+$5,281	-$3,004

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$258	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.68/sh	+$274 cycle +$854 [+$92…+$323] · 88% credit	66% surv 51%	-$5,610 NOT cap gain +$3,325
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$264	2 Oct 2026	16d left	+$1.12/sh	+$448 cycle +$1,028 [-$5…+$428] · 75% credit	75% surv 68%	-$1,732 NOT cap gain +$7,203
Max even-money escape in the band	~$270	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.83/sh	+$332 cycle +$912 [-$226…+$280] · 58% credit	80% surv 75%	+$596 SAFE cap gain +$9,531
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$277	2 Oct 2026	16d left	-$1.41/sh	-$562 cycle +$18 [-$1,336…-$696]	90% surv 89%	+$2,920 SAFE cap gain +$11,855
budget: banked $580 debit $562 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$18 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $717/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $254.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $255-259.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $259.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$257.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$580	$-5,884	+$3,052	+$216
+2.5%	$263.94 (1.6σ)	$-1,995	$-5,053	+$3,882	-$2,359
+5%	$270.38 (2.5σ)	$-4,570	$-4,510	+$4,425	-$3,784

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$372	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$2.64/sh	+$264 cycle +$469 [+$179…+$490] · 96% credit	68% surv 52%	-$25,760 NOT cap gain +$4,230
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$377	9 Oct 2026	19d left	+$3.52/sh	+$352 cycle +$557 [+$214…+$611] · 94% credit	69% surv 56%	-$25,286 NOT cap gain +$4,704
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$377	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.56/sh	+$56 cycle +$261 [-$62…+$262] · 61% credit	70% surv 57%	-$25,581 NOT cap gain +$4,409
Max even-money escape in the band	~$377	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.56/sh	+$56 cycle +$261 [-$62…+$262] · 61% credit	70% surv 57%	-$25,581 NOT cap gain +$4,409
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$382	2 Oct 2026	12d left	-$1.52/sh	-$152 cycle +$53 [-$304…+$35] · 27% credit	73% surv 62%	-$25,340 NOT cap gain +$4,650
budget: banked $205 debit $152 (74% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,562/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $368.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $369-374.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $374.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 18 active short call(s) 3 TRIPPED · 4 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (10d)

$558.00

$565.44

$28.02

$20.02

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)

$141.50

$155.41

$9.88

$8.38

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (66d)

$674.76

$687.21

$56.45

$46.69

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (17d)

$179.82

$229.43

$1.79

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)

$83.52

$127.58

$0.56

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (38d)

$931.33

$1,252.67

$10.03

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (38d)

$931.33

$1,284.32

$8.00

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (17d)

$99.72

$118.98

$1.22

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)

$343.57

$359.26

$7.50

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)

$105.96

$112.23

$1.92

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)

$42.78

$55.88

$1.04

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)

$42.78

$55.88

$1.04

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMD

Neville:0865

2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (38d)

$505.67

$593.17

$10.55

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SNDK

Neville:0865

1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (38d)

$1,549.47

$2,085.25

$37.95

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (66d)

$188.08

$224.53

$7.25

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (66d)

$130.72

$180.96

$6.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (66d)

$130.72

$180.95

$6.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (94d)

$393.28

$476.90

$3.50

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$24.27	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 54.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$24.27	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$24.27	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 63.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$13.04	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 37.1% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$36.88	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 34.3% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$43.23	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 38.8% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$11.35	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$11.35	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 72.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 18 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMD	Neville:0865	2	$489.91	2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (38d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (17d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (10d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (94d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (31d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (31d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (17d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (66d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (66d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (66d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (38d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (38d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (31d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (66d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (38d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2674 of 2847 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	187	56%	62%	+6pp
60-70%	366	64%	61%	-3pp
70-80%	475	76%	83%	+6pp
80-90%	619	85%	84%	-0pp
90-100%	1027	94%	95%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2674 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 10 graded weeks; last week 1.04x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 165 real buyback(s) recorded · 83 roll(s), net +$0.59/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 83 real rolls: buyback $6.77/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.59/sh (58 of 83 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-09-15 21:51

Gross FIGHT income	$684/mo
vs 50% target ($1,779/mo)	-62%
vs normal income ($3,558/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$297/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$43,323
… as % of IC ($15,930)	272.0%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	62.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	12.2 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-52,683

Gross FIGHT income	$1,320/mo
vs 50% target ($1,779/mo)	-26%
vs normal income ($3,558/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$933/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$45,819
… as % of IC ($15,930)	287.6%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	65.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	12.9 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-52,665

Gross FIGHT income	$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($1,779/mo)	+12%
vs normal income ($3,558/mo)	56% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,616/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$39,092
… as % of IC ($15,930)	245.4%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	55.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-43,893

Gross FIGHT income	$3,600/mo
vs 50% target ($1,779/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($3,558/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,216/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$39,932
… as % of IC ($15,930)	250.7%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	57.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-43,895

Gross FIGHT income	$1,006/mo
vs 50% target ($2,827/mo)	-64%
vs normal income ($5,654/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$245/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($33,960)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-8,960

Gross FIGHT income	$1,600/mo
vs 50% target ($2,827/mo)	-43%
vs normal income ($5,654/mo)	28% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$839/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,469
… as % of IC ($33,960)	7.3%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	4.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-8,943

Gross FIGHT income	$2,120/mo
vs 50% target ($2,827/mo)	-25%
vs normal income ($5,654/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,632/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,891
… as % of IC ($33,960)	8.5%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	5.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-7,158

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,743
… as % of IC ($33,960)	11.0%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	7.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-7,160

Gross FIGHT income	$5,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,827/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($5,654/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,312/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,523
… as % of IC ($33,960)	13.3%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	8.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-7,166

Gross FIGHT income	$615/mo
vs 50% target ($1,446/mo)	-57%
vs normal income ($2,892/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$567/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,685
… as % of IC ($12,800)	185.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	49.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.2 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-30,020

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$372.50 (1.4σ)	$205	$-26,024	+$3,966	+$200
+2.5%	$381.81 (1.7σ)	$-726	$-26,117	+$3,873	-$731
+5%	$391.12 (2.0σ)	$-1,658	$-26,210	+$3,780	-$1,662
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (8.5σ)	$-21,345	$-28,179	+$1,811	-$5,050

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$358	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$4.84/sh	+$484 cycle +$594 [+$380…+$583] · 95% credit	69% surv 52%	-$26,985 NOT cap gain +$3,005
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$377	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.94/sh	+$294 cycle +$404 [+$3…+$381] · 75% credit	76% surv 68%	-$25,439 NOT cap gain +$4,551
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$367	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.89/sh	+$89 cycle +$199 [-$103…+$168] · 55% credit	75% surv 64%	-$26,544 NOT cap gain +$3,446
Max even-money escape in the band	~$377	2 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.67/sh	+$67 cycle +$177 [-$225…+$149] · 46% credit	77% surv 70%	-$25,666 NOT cap gain +$4,324
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$387	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.05/sh	-$5 cycle +$105 [-$359…+$76] · 34% credit	80% surv 75%	-$24,837 NOT cap gain +$5,153
budget: banked $110 debit $5 (4% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$105 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,053/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$1,100/mo
vs 50% target ($1,446/mo)	-24%
vs normal income ($2,892/mo)	38% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,052/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,280
… as % of IC ($12,800)	197.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	52.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-30,017

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $353.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $354-358.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $358.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$357.50 (1.6σ)	$110	$-27,469	+$2,521	+$105
+2.5%	$366.44 (2.1σ)	$-784	$-27,558	+$2,432	-$789
+5%	$375.38 (2.7σ)	$-1,678	$-27,648	+$2,342	-$1,682
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (15.5σ)	$-22,940	$-29,774	+$216	-$6,645

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$355	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$4.88/sh	+$488 cycle +$633 [+$374…+$589] · 97% credit	69% surv 52%	-$27,171 NOT cap gain +$2,819
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$374	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.98/sh	+$298 cycle +$443 [-$6…+$377] · 75% credit	76% surv 68%	-$25,625 NOT cap gain +$4,365
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$364	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.93/sh	+$93 cycle +$238 [-$117…+$165] · 56% credit	75% surv 64%	-$26,730 NOT cap gain +$3,260
Max even-money escape in the band	~$374	2 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.71/sh	+$71 cycle +$216 [-$230…+$143] · 45% credit	77% surv 70%	-$25,852 NOT cap gain +$4,138
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$389	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$1.19/sh	-$119 cycle +$26 [-$515…-$60] · 14% credit	82% surv 78%	-$24,692 NOT cap gain +$5,298
budget: banked $145 debit $119 (82% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $889/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$1,450/mo
vs 50% target ($1,446/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($2,892/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,402/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,495
… as % of IC ($12,800)	199.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	52.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.8 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-30,020

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $351-356.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $356.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$355.00 (1.5σ)	$145	$-27,659	+$2,331	+$140
+2.5%	$363.87 (2.0σ)	$-742	$-27,748	+$2,242	-$747
+5%	$372.75 (2.5σ)	$-1,630	$-27,836	+$2,154	-$1,635
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (15.5σ)	$-23,155	$-29,989	+$1	-$6,860

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$345	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$5.02/sh	+$502 cycle +$872 [+$344…+$573] · 97% credit	69% surv 52%	-$27,832 NOT cap gain +$2,158
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$364	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$3.11/sh	+$311 cycle +$681 [-$66…+$322] · 69% credit	76% surv 68%	-$26,287 NOT cap gain +$3,703
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$357	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$9 cycle +$379 [-$290…+$19] · 28% credit	77% surv 68%	-$27,263 NOT cap gain +$2,727
Max even-money escape in the band	~$374	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.14/sh	+$14 cycle +$384 [-$437…-$1] · 25% credit	80% surv 75%	-$25,684 NOT cap gain +$4,306
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$394	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$3.30/sh	-$330 cycle +$40 [-$873…-$374]	88% surv 86%	-$24,228 NOT cap gain +$5,762
budget: banked $370 debit $330 (89% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $572/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$3,700/mo
vs 50% target ($1,446/mo)	+156%
vs normal income ($2,892/mo)	128% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,652/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,270
… as % of IC ($12,800)	205.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	54.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-30,015

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $341.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $342-348.95	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $348.95	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$345.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$370	$-28,334	+$1,656	+$365
+2.5%	$353.62 (1.4σ)	$-492	$-28,420	+$1,570	-$497
+5%	$362.25 (1.9σ)	$-1,355	$-28,506	+$1,484	-$1,360
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (15.5σ)	$-23,930	$-30,764	-$774	-$7,635