FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

42 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 11 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 2 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 3 uncapped above water | 18 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $78,030/mo (53% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $56,634/mo · plus $39,870/mo CC-safe on 2 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $10,230 locked in if all 4 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 1 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
SPCX ↗ ▲ UP +3.5% Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$148.45	$190.06	5 × $195 9 Oct (23d) $160 cyc · $209/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:5%hist 3%	5 × $160 18 Sep (2d) $205 cyc · $3,075/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:5%hist 3%	4 × $160 18 Sep (2d) $164 cyc · $2,460/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:5%hist 3%	🎯 4 × $157.50 18 Sep (2d) $280 cyc · $4,200/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 26%	4 × $155 18 Sep (2d) $460 cyc · $6,900/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 30%	$3,947	-$12,743 (94.4% IC)	28.0%
AMZN ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	5	$247.34	$270.37	5 × $275 9 Oct (23d) $450 cyc · $587/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	5 × $257.50 18 Sep (2d)alt tenor $140 cyc · $2,100/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14%	5 × $257.50 18 Sep (2d) $140 cyc · $2,100/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14%	🎯 4 × $255 18 Sep (2d) $216 cyc · $3,240/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:26%hist 26%	5 × $252.50 18 Sep (2d) $485 cyc · $7,275/mo 78% survhist 84% · T:44%hist 39%	$980	-$5,933 (17.5% IC)	9.3%
APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	1	$330.49	$604.73	—	1 × $372.50 25 Sep (9d)alt tenor $130 cyc · $433/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	1 × $355 18 Sep (2d) $60 cyc · $900/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	🎯 1 × $350 18 Sep (2d) $120 cyc · $1,800/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 26%	1 × $342.50 18 Sep (2d) $200 cyc · $3,000/mo 75% survhist 84% · T:51%hist 44%	$2,598	-$25,353 (198.1% IC)	83.0%
COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	20	$85.45	$95.21	20 × $95.50 9 Oct (23d) $1,600 cyc · $2,087/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 30%	20 × $95 18 Sep (2d) $100 cyc · $1,500/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 3%	10 × $90 18 Sep (2d) $250 cyc · $3,750/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 26%	🎯 15 × $90 18 Sep (2d) $375 cyc · $5,625/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 26%	15 × $88 18 Sep (2d) $750 cyc · $11,250/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 30%	$2,500	-$7,433 (13.1% IC)	11.4%
GOOG-LC340 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$340.99	$383.80	5 × $385 9 Oct (23d) $380 cyc · $496/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:11%hist 14%	5 × $362.50 25 Sep (9d)alt tenor $450 cyc · $1,500/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 26%	5 × $355 18 Sep (2d) $215 cyc · $3,225/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 14%	🎯 4 × $352.50 18 Sep (2d) $264 cyc · $3,960/mo 90% survhist 86% · T:20%hist 26%	4 × $347.50 18 Sep (2d) $596 cyc · $8,940/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:46%hist 39%	$24,503	-$12,256 (48.1% IC)	12.6%
IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	20	$42.35	$58.15	20 × $60 9 Oct (23d) $620 cyc · $809/mo 95% survhist 96% · T:11%hist 14%	20 × $51 25 Sep (9d)alt tenor $580 cyc · $1,933/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	18 × $47.50 18 Sep (2d) $252 cyc · $3,780/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 14%	🎯 20 × $47 18 Sep (2d) $380 cyc · $5,700/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	20 × $45.50 18 Sep (2d) $760 cyc · $11,400/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 30%	$5,005	-$21,927 (365.4% IC)	37.3%
IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	20	$42.35	$66.50	20 × $65 25 Sep (9d) $60 cyc · $200/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3%	20 × $51 25 Sep (9d)alt tenor $580 cyc · $1,933/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	18 × $47.50 18 Sep (2d) $252 cyc · $3,780/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 14%	🎯 20 × $47 18 Sep (2d) $380 cyc · $5,700/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	20 × $45.50 18 Sep (2d) $760 cyc · $11,400/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 30%	$3,610	-$38,621 (281.9% IC)	57.0%
NVDA ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	10	$214.07	$229.66	10 × $230 9 Oct (23d) $2,090 cyc · $2,726/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 30%	10 × $230 25 Sep (9d)alt tenor $550 cyc · $1,833/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	6 × $222.50 18 Sep (2d) $246 cyc · $3,690/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	🎯 10 × $222.50 18 Sep (2d) $410 cyc · $6,150/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	10 × $220 18 Sep (2d) $760 cyc · $11,400/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 30%	$403	-$6,751 (13.6% IC)	7.3%
RKLB ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	6	$63.29	$149.05	—	6 × $69 18 Sep (2d) $210 cyc · $3,150/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14%	4 × $70 18 Sep (2d) $104 cyc · $1,560/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 14%	🎯 6 × $70 18 Sep (2d) $156 cyc · $2,340/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 14%	6 × $68 18 Sep (2d) $288 cyc · $4,320/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:27%hist 26%	$2,602	-$47,272 (296.7% IC)	135.5%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
GOOG-LC300 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	15	$340.99	$345.76	🎯 15 × $350 18 Sep (2d) $1,470 cyc · $22,050/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 30% above floor +$6,359 · hole 0.3mo	15 × $355 18 Sep (2d) $645 cyc · $9,675/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 14% above floor +$13,859 · hole 0.7mo	13 × $355 18 Sep (2d) $559 cyc · $8,385/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 14% above floor +$12,011 · hole 0.9mo	12 × $352.50 18 Sep (2d) $792 cyc · $11,880/mo 90% survhist 86% · T:20%hist 26% above floor +$8,087 · hole 0.6mo	11 × $347.50 18 Sep (2d) $1,639 cyc · $24,585/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:46%hist 39% above floor +$1,913 · hole 0.3mo	$31,054	+$6,359 whole if assigned	1.4% whole ~26 Sep on 🎯
SPY ↗ ⚐ Neville:0865 · This Fri	12	$758.88	$703.64	🎯 12 × $767 18 Sep (2d) $1,188 cyc · $17,820/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:36%hist 30% above floor +$76,029	12 × $771 18 Sep (2d) $444 cyc · $6,660/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14% above floor +$80,829	10 × $770 18 Sep (2d) $480 cyc · $7,200/mo 90% survhist 86% · T:20%hist 26% above floor +$66,358	12 × $769 18 Sep (2d) $744 cyc · $11,160/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:25%hist 26% above floor +$78,429	12 × $766 18 Sep (2d) $1,476 cyc · $22,140/mo 79% survhist 84% · T:43%hist 39% above floor +$74,829	$5,271	+$76,029 whole if assigned	0.0%
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ETHA Main:1299	50	$18.06	$17.33 BE	+4.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
HIMS Main:1299	15	$27.67	$17.47 BE	+58.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
MU-LC670 Joint:1782	1	$927.24	$792.36 BE	+17.0% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
COIN-LC500 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	25	$171.48	$355.12	—	25 × $187.50 18 Sep (2d) $1,225 cyc · $18,375/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14%	19 × $187.50 18 Sep (2d) $931 cyc · $13,965/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14%	🎯 20 × $185 18 Sep (2d) $1,400 cyc · $21,000/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 26%	20 × $180 18 Sep (2d) $2,800 cyc · $42,000/mo 79% survhist 84% · T:43%hist 39%	$15,088	-$338,833 (215.1% IC)	107.1%
GLXY ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	125	$22.55	$34.97	—	125 × $27.50 25 Sep (9d)alt tenor $1,375 cyc · $4,583/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	73 × $24.50 18 Sep (2d) $803 cyc · $12,045/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 30%	🎯 111 × $24.50 18 Sep (2d) $1,221 cyc · $18,315/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 30%	81 × $23.50 18 Sep (2d) $2,430 cyc · $36,450/mo 70% survhist 84% · T:61%hist 59%	$6,095	-$114,952 (416.1% IC)	55.1%
TOTAL (13)	269	following every 🎯 $7,860 cyc · $117,900/mo		$8,018 cyc · $46,983/mo 9 of 13	$6,634 cyc · $56,752/mo	$4,456 cyc · $66,840/mo	$6,738 cyc · $101,070/mo	$13,404 cyc · $201,060/mo	$103,654	-$632,074

Spot \ Time	≥ 12d left	3-11d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $193.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $193-195.34	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $195.34	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$195.00 (2.4σ)	$160	$1,245	+$22,970	+$4,990
+2.5%	$199.87 (2.6σ)	$-2,277	$1,196	+$22,921	+$4,990
+5%	$204.75 (2.9σ)	$-4,715	$1,147	+$22,872	+$4,990

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$160	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$2.74/sh	+$1,368 cycle +$1,573 [+$1,212…+$1,540] · 99% credit	69% surv 51%	-$14,492 NOT cap gain +$7,233
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$172	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.05/sh	+$526 cycle +$731 [-$140…+$618] · 69% credit	80% surv 74%	-$9,675 NOT cap gain +$12,050
Max even-money escape in the band	~$174	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.45/sh	+$227 cycle +$432 [-$513…+$301] · 48% credit	82% surv 78%	-$8,749 NOT cap gain +$12,976
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$167	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$56 cycle +$261 [-$538…+$96] · 38% credit	78% surv 71%	-$12,595 NOT cap gain +$9,130
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$177	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.08/sh	-$41 cycle +$164 [-$851…+$17] · 27% credit	84% surv 81%	-$7,792 NOT cap gain +$13,933
budget: banked $205 debit $41 (20% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$164 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,826/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $158.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $158-160.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $160.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$160.00 (2.0σ)	$205	$-15,860	+$5,865	+$35
+2.5%	$164.00 (2.7σ)	$-1,795	$-15,900	+$5,825	-$1,965
+5%	$168.00 (3.4σ)	$-3,795	$-15,940	+$5,785	-$3,965
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (6.5σ)	$-12,795	$-16,120	+$5,605	-$12,465

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$160	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$2.74/sh	+$1,095 cycle +$1,259 [+$936…+$1,217] · 100% credit	69% surv 51%	-$14,773 NOT cap gain +$6,952
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$172	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.05/sh	+$421 cycle +$585 [-$221…+$448] · 67% credit	80% surv 74%	-$9,787 NOT cap gain +$11,938
Max even-money escape in the band	~$174	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.45/sh	+$182 cycle +$346 [-$526…+$191] · 46% credit	82% surv 78%	-$8,801 NOT cap gain +$12,924
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$167	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$45 cycle +$209 [-$535…+$41] · 34% credit	78% surv 71%	-$12,613 NOT cap gain +$9,112
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$177	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.08/sh	-$33 cycle +$131 [-$804…-$34] · 21% credit	84% surv 81%	-$7,791 NOT cap gain +$13,934
budget: banked $164 debit $33 (20% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,461/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $158.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $158-160.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $160.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$160.00 (2.0σ)	$164	$-15,867	+$5,858	+$28
+2.5%	$164.00 (2.7σ)	$-1,436	$-15,507	+$6,218	-$1,572
+5%	$168.00 (3.4σ)	$-3,036	$-15,147	+$6,578	-$3,172
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (6.5σ)	$-10,236	$-13,627	+$8,098	-$9,972

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$158	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$2.77/sh	+$1,107 cycle +$1,387 [+$938…+$1,194] · 99% credit	69% surv 51%	-$15,870 NOT cap gain +$5,855
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$169	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.08/sh	+$434 cycle +$714 [-$190…+$424] · 65% credit	80% surv 74%	-$10,883 NOT cap gain +$10,842
Max even-money escape in the band	~$172	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.49/sh	+$195 cycle +$475 [-$493…+$172] · 46% credit	82% surv 78%	-$9,897 NOT cap gain +$11,828
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$164	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$56 cycle +$336 [-$505…+$33] · 29% credit	78% surv 71%	-$13,711 NOT cap gain +$8,014
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$177	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.50/sh	-$200 cycle +$80 [-$1,000…-$237] · 3% credit	86% surv 84%	-$7,842 NOT cap gain +$13,883
budget: banked $280 debit $200 (72% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,208/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $155.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $156-158.21	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $158.21	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$157.50 (1.6σ)	$280	$-16,976	+$4,749	+$144
+2.5%	$161.44 (2.2σ)	$-1,295	$-16,622	+$5,103	-$1,431
+5%	$165.38 (2.9σ)	$-2,870	$-16,268	+$5,457	-$3,006
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (6.5σ)	$-11,120	$-14,511	+$7,214	-$10,856

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$155	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$2.80/sh	+$1,118 cycle +$1,578 [+$899…+$1,144] · 99% credit	69% surv 52%	-$16,903 NOT cap gain +$4,822
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$167	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.11/sh	+$445 cycle +$905 [-$307…+$364] · 62% credit	80% surv 74%	-$11,917 NOT cap gain +$9,808
Max even-money escape in the band	~$169	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.52/sh	+$207 cycle +$667 [-$611…+$107] · 38% credit	82% surv 78%	-$10,930 NOT cap gain +$10,795
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$162	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.17/sh	+$67 cycle +$527 [-$577…-$15] · 23% credit	78% surv 71%	-$14,745 NOT cap gain +$6,980
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$177	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.84/sh	-$336 cycle +$124 [-$1,326…-$472]	88% surv 86%	-$7,798 NOT cap gain +$13,927
budget: banked $460 debit $336 (73% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $999/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $153.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $153-156.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $156.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$155.00 (1.1σ)	$460	$-18,021	+$3,704	+$324
+2.5%	$158.88 (1.8σ)	$-1,090	$-17,673	+$4,052	-$1,226
+5%	$162.75 (2.5σ)	$-2,640	$-17,324	+$4,401	-$2,776
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (6.5σ)	$-11,940	$-15,331	+$6,394	-$11,676

Spot \ Time	≥ 12d left	3-11d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $272.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $272-275.96	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $275.96	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$275.00 (1.5σ)	$450	$2,909	+$14,819	+$4,045
+2.5%	$281.88 (1.8σ)	$-2,988	$3,043	+$14,953	+$4,045
+5%	$288.75 (2.2σ)	$-6,425	$3,177	+$15,087	+$4,045

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$265	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.23/sh	+$1,115 cycle +$1,255 [+$684…+$1,225] · 93% credit	75% surv 67%	-$1,398 NOT cap gain +$10,512
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$258	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.74/sh	+$368 cycle +$508 [+$226…+$450] · 90% credit	66% surv 51%	-$6,124 NOT cap gain +$5,786
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$258	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.65/sh	+$324 cycle +$464 [+$163…+$401] · 88% credit	67% surv 51%	-$6,085 NOT cap gain +$5,825
Max even-money escape in the band	~$270	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.85/sh	+$426 cycle +$566 [-$143…+$506] · 70% credit	81% surv 76%	+$511 SAFE cap gain +$12,421
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$275	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.25/sh	-$126 cycle +$14 [-$822…-$68] · 18% credit	86% surv 83%	+$2,556 SAFE cap gain +$14,466
budget: banked $140 debit $126 (90% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,323/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $254.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $255-257.81	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $257.81	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$257.50 (1.8σ)	$140	$-6,492	+$5,418	-$15
+2.5%	$263.94 (3.0σ)	$-3,079	$-6,366	+$5,544	-$3,234
+5%	$270.38 (4.1σ)	$-6,298	$-6,241	+$5,669	-$5,015

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$265	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.23/sh	+$1,115 cycle +$1,255 [+$684…+$1,225] · 93% credit	75% surv 67%	-$1,398 NOT cap gain +$10,512
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$258	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.74/sh	+$368 cycle +$508 [+$226…+$450] · 90% credit	66% surv 51%	-$6,124 NOT cap gain +$5,786
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$258	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.65/sh	+$324 cycle +$464 [+$163…+$401] · 88% credit	67% surv 51%	-$6,085 NOT cap gain +$5,825
Max even-money escape in the band	~$270	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.85/sh	+$426 cycle +$566 [-$143…+$506] · 70% credit	81% surv 76%	+$511 SAFE cap gain +$12,421
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$275	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.25/sh	-$126 cycle +$14 [-$822…-$68] · 18% credit	86% surv 83%	+$2,556 SAFE cap gain +$14,466
budget: banked $140 debit $126 (90% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,323/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $254.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $255-257.81	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $257.81	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$257.50 (1.8σ)	$140	$-6,492	+$5,418	-$15
+2.5%	$263.94 (3.0σ)	$-3,079	$-6,366	+$5,544	-$3,234
+5%	$270.38 (4.1σ)	$-6,298	$-6,241	+$5,669	-$5,015

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$263	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.28/sh	+$913 cycle +$1,129 [+$422…+$912] · 90% credit	75% surv 67%	-$2,792 NOT cap gain +$9,118
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$255	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.77/sh	+$309 cycle +$525 [+$130…+$337] · 87% credit	66% surv 51%	-$7,375 NOT cap gain +$4,535
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$255	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.68/sh	+$274 cycle +$490 [+$78…+$295] · 81% credit	67% surv 51%	-$7,327 NOT cap gain +$4,583
Max even-money escape in the band	~$268	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.90/sh	+$361 cycle +$577 [-$258…+$337] · 62% credit	81% surv 76%	-$762 NOT cap gain +$11,148
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$273	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.21/sh	-$83 cycle +$133 [-$826…-$124] · 12% credit	86% surv 83%	+$891 SAFE cap gain +$12,801
budget: banked $216 debit $83 (39% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,071/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $252.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $252-255.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $255.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$255.00 (1.4σ)	$216	$-7,684	+$4,226	+$92
+2.5%	$261.38 (2.5σ)	$-2,334	$-6,922	+$4,988	-$2,458
+5%	$267.75 (3.6σ)	$-4,884	$-6,185	+$5,725	-$4,908
SS (= V-bounce)	$267.92 (3.7σ)	$-4,952	$-6,182	+$5,728	-$4,908

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$260	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.33/sh	+$1,166 cycle +$1,651 [+$480…+$1,089] · 88% credit	75% surv 67%	-$3,599 NOT cap gain +$8,311
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$252	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.81/sh	+$404 cycle +$889 [+$147…+$385] · 85% credit	66% surv 51%	-$8,340 NOT cap gain +$3,570
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$253	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.72/sh	+$360 cycle +$845 [+$82…+$337] · 81% credit	67% surv 51%	-$8,301 NOT cap gain +$3,609
Max even-money escape in the band	~$265	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.95/sh	+$475 cycle +$960 [-$387…+$357] · 56% credit	81% surv 76%	-$1,693 NOT cap gain +$10,217
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$275	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.92/sh	-$459 cycle +$26 [-$1,609…-$634]	90% surv 88%	+$2,569 SAFE cap gain +$14,479
budget: banked $485 debit $459 (95% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $840/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $249.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $250-253.51	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $253.51	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 18 active short call(s) 3 TRIPPED · 4 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (9d)

$567.55

$565.44

$32.90

$15.35

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)

$140.87

$155.41

$9.38

$8.50

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (65d)

$681.09

$687.21

$61.10

$45.01

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (16d)

$171.10

$229.43

$0.73

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SNDK

Neville:0865

1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (37d)

$1,527.51

$2,085.25

$29.70

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (37d)

$927.24

$1,252.67

$9.45

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (37d)

$927.24

$1,284.32

$6.55

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (16d)

$103.68

$118.98

$1.86

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)

$341.11

$359.26

$6.30

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)

$105.54

$112.23

$1.56

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)

$42.23

$55.88

$0.95

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)

$42.23

$55.88

$0.95

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)

$83.66

$127.58

$0.69

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMD

Neville:0865

2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (37d)

$521.38

$593.17

$14.65

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (65d)

$189.03

$224.53

$7.53

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (65d)

$128.87

$180.96

$5.78

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (65d)

$128.87

$180.95

$5.78

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (93d)

$398.24

$476.90

$4.08

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$23.44	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$23.44	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$23.44	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 64.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.80	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 38.3% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$36.29	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.4% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$42.80	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$11.29	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.6% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$11.29	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 72.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 18 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMD	Neville:0865	2	$489.91	2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (37d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (16d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (9d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (93d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (30d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (30d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (16d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (65d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (65d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (65d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (37d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (37d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (30d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (65d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (37d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2674 of 2864 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	187	56%	62%	+6pp
60-70%	366	64%	61%	-3pp
70-80%	475	76%	83%	+6pp
80-90%	619	85%	84%	-0pp
90-100%	1027	94%	95%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2674 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 10 graded weeks; last week 1.04x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 165 real buyback(s) recorded · 83 roll(s), net +$0.59/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 83 real rolls: buyback $6.77/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.59/sh (58 of 83 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-09-16 21:50

Gross FIGHT income	$209/mo
vs 50% target ($3,258/mo)	-94%
vs normal income ($6,516/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$209/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($13,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-21,732

Gross FIGHT income	$3,075/mo
vs 50% target ($3,258/mo)	-6%
vs normal income ($6,516/mo)	47% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,075/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,824
… as % of IC ($13,500)	109.8%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	34.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-21,730

Gross FIGHT income	$2,460/mo
vs 50% target ($3,258/mo)	-24%
vs normal income ($6,516/mo)	38% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,524/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,859
… as % of IC ($13,500)	87.8%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	27.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-17,384

Gross FIGHT income	$4,200/mo
vs 50% target ($3,258/mo)	+29%
vs normal income ($6,516/mo)	64% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,264/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,743
… as % of IC ($13,500)	94.4%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	29.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-17,384

Gross FIGHT income	$6,900/mo
vs 50% target ($3,258/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($6,516/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,964/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,563
… as % of IC ($13,500)	100.5%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	31.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-17,386

Gross FIGHT income	$587/mo
vs 50% target ($3,134/mo)	-81%
vs normal income ($6,268/mo)	9% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$-336/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($33,960)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-11,940

Gross FIGHT income	$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($3,134/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($6,268/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,177/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,296
… as % of IC ($33,960)	18.5%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	12.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-11,927

Gross FIGHT income	$3,240/mo
vs 50% target ($3,134/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($6,268/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,394/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,933
… as % of IC ($33,960)	17.5%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	11.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-9,540

Gross FIGHT income	$7,275/mo
vs 50% target ($3,134/mo)	+132%
vs normal income ($6,268/mo)	116% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,352/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,451
… as % of IC ($33,960)	24.9%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	16.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-11,930

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$252.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$485	$-8,744	+$3,166	+$330
+2.5%	$258.81 (2.1σ)	$-2,671	$-8,621	+$3,289	-$2,826
+5%	$265.12 (3.2σ)	$-5,828	$-8,498	+$3,412	-$5,982
SS (= V-bounce)	$267.92 (3.7σ)	$-7,225	$-8,444	+$3,466	-$7,170

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$372	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$3.48/sh	+$348 cycle +$478 [+$321…+$497] · 100% credit	65% surv 52%	-$24,195 NOT cap gain +$5,125
Max even-money escape in the band	~$387	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.13/sh	+$113 cycle +$243 [-$11…+$254] · 73% credit	73% surv 65%	-$22,826 NOT cap gain +$6,494
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$380	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.56/sh	+$56 cycle +$186 [-$29…+$178] · 67% credit	69% surv 60%	-$23,713 NOT cap gain +$5,607
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$392	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.33/sh	-$33 cycle +$97 [-$187…+$88] · 41% credit	75% surv 69%	-$22,419 NOT cap gain +$6,901
budget: banked $130 debit $33 (26% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,391/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$433/mo
vs 50% target ($1,285/mo)	-66%
vs normal income ($2,571/mo)	17% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$359/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,093
… as % of IC ($12,800)	180.4%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	47.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-29,348

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $368.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $369-374.07	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $374.07	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$372.50 (1.4σ)	$130	$-24,544	+$4,776	+$125
+2.5%	$381.81 (1.7σ)	$-801	$-24,445	+$4,875	-$806
+5%	$391.12 (2.0σ)	$-1,732	$-24,346	+$4,974	-$1,738
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (8.3σ)	$-21,420	$-22,259	+$7,061	-$9,625

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$355	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$3.79/sh	+$379 cycle +$439 [+$255…+$407] · 94% credit	63% surv 52%	-$26,170 NOT cap gain +$3,150
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$385	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.96/sh	+$196 cycle +$256 [-$68…+$190] · 68% credit	79% surv 75%	-$23,089 NOT cap gain +$6,231
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$367	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$12 cycle +$72 [-$225…-$0] · 25% credit	73% surv 67%	-$25,209 NOT cap gain +$4,111
Max even-money escape in the band	~$395	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$7 cycle +$67 [-$307…-$10] · 23% credit	83% surv 80%	-$22,173 NOT cap gain +$7,147
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Gross FIGHT income	$900/mo
vs 50% target ($1,285/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($2,571/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$826/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,913
… as % of IC ($12,800)	194.6%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	51.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-29,342

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $351-355.82	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $355.82	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$355.00 (1.7σ)	$60	$-26,549	+$2,771	+$55
+2.5%	$363.87 (2.3σ)	$-827	$-26,455	+$2,865	-$832
+5%	$372.75 (2.9σ)	$-1,715	$-26,361	+$2,959	-$1,720
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (17.7σ)	$-23,240	$-24,079	+$5,241	-$11,445

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$350	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$3.83/sh	+$383 cycle +$503 [+$215…+$385] · 92% credit	63% surv 52%	-$26,659 NOT cap gain +$2,661
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$380	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.00/sh	+$200 cycle +$320 [-$119…+$180] · 63% credit	79% surv 75%	-$23,578 NOT cap gain +$5,742
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$362	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.17/sh	+$17 cycle +$137 [-$270…-$4] · 24% credit	73% surv 67%	-$25,697 NOT cap gain +$3,623
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.11/sh	+$11 cycle +$131 [-$363…-$17] · 21% credit	83% surv 80%	-$22,661 NOT cap gain +$6,659
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.68/sh	-$68 cycle +$52 [-$467…-$101] · 8% credit	85% surv 83%	-$22,188 NOT cap gain +$7,132
budget: banked $120 debit $68 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$52 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $598/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($1,285/mo)	+40%
vs normal income ($2,571/mo)	70% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,726/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,353
… as % of IC ($12,800)	198.1%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	52.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.9 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-29,332

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $346.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $346-351.32	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $351.32	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$350.00 (1.3σ)	$120	$-27,042	+$2,278	+$115
+2.5%	$358.75 (1.9σ)	$-755	$-26,949	+$2,371	-$760
+5%	$367.50 (2.5σ)	$-1,630	$-26,857	+$2,463	-$1,635
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (17.7σ)	$-23,680	$-24,519	+$4,801	-$11,885

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$342	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$3.89/sh	+$389 cycle +$589 [+$153…+$378] · 89% credit	63% surv 52%	-$27,403 NOT cap gain +$1,917
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$367	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$3.04/sh	+$304 cycle +$504 [-$102…+$273] · 68% credit	77% surv 72%	-$24,777 NOT cap gain +$4,543
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$355	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.23/sh	+$23 cycle +$223 [-$364…-$12] · 21% credit	73% surv 67%	-$26,441 NOT cap gain +$2,879
Max even-money escape in the band	~$382	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$17 cycle +$217 [-$491…-$31] · 17% credit	83% surv 81%	-$23,405 NOT cap gain +$5,915
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$397	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$1.80/sh	-$180 cycle +$20 [-$766…-$241]	88% surv 87%	-$21,943 NOT cap gain +$7,377
budget: banked $200 debit $180 (90% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $431/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell