FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

40 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 10 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 2 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 3 uncapped above water | 17 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $69,131/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $1,366/mo · plus $14,850/mo CC-safe on 2 shallow row(s) ⓘ ⚠ 2 negative E[net]
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $24,306 locked in if all 4 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
AMZN ↗ ▲ UP +2.1% Joint:1782 · Next Fri	5	$250.84	$270.33	5 × $275 9 Oct (22d) $430 cyc · $586/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 26%	—	🎯 4 × $260 25 Sep (8d) $472 cyc · $1,770/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 30%	5 × $257.50 25 Sep (8d) $845 cyc · $3,169/mo 74% survhist 84% · T:53%hist 44%	5 × $252.50 25 Sep (8d) $1,650 cyc · $6,188/mo 57% survhist 70% · T:87%hist 79%	$980	-$3,662 (10.8% IC)	7.8%
COPX ↗ ▲ UP +2.8% Joint:1782 · Next Fri	20	$86.31	$95.93	20 × $96 9 Oct (22d) $1,400 cyc · $1,909/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 30%	20 × $94 25 Sep (8d) $500 cyc · $1,875/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 26%	🎯 20 × $92 25 Sep (8d) $1,000 cyc · $3,750/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 30%	18 × $90 25 Sep (8d) $1,530 cyc · $5,738/mo 75% survhist 84% · T:52%hist 44%	20 × $87.50 25 Sep (8d) $3,000 cyc · $11,250/mo 59% survhist 70% · T:83%hist 79%	$2,500	-$6,868 (12.1% IC)	11.2%
RKLB ↗ ▲ UP +6.1% RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	6	$66.97	$149.16	—	6 × $77 25 Sep (8d) $210 cyc · $788/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14%	🎯 6 × $74 25 Sep (8d) $444 cyc · $1,665/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 30%	6 × $72 25 Sep (8d) $630 cyc · $2,362/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:47%hist 39%	6 × $68 25 Sep (8d) $1,380 cyc · $5,175/mo 58% survhist 70% · T:87%hist 79%	$2,602	-$44,653 (280.3% IC)	122.7%
APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	1	$320.26	$602.72	—	1 × $360 25 Sep (8d) $140 cyc · $525/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14%	🎯 1 × $347.50 25 Sep (8d) $245 cyc · $919/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 30%	1 × $340 25 Sep (8d) $380 cyc · $1,425/mo 76% survhist 84% · T:48%hist 39%	1 × $325 25 Sep (8d) $770 cyc · $2,888/mo 58% survhist 70% · T:86%hist 79%	$2,598	-$25,277 (197.5% IC)	88.2%
COIN-LC165 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	8	$166.53	$214.18	8 × $215 9 Oct (22d) $680 cyc · $927/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 14%	8 × $190 25 Sep (8d) $656 cyc · $2,460/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	🎯 7 × $182.50 25 Sep (8d) $1,092 cyc · $4,095/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 30%	7 × $177.50 25 Sep (8d) $1,722 cyc · $6,458/mo 76% survhist 84% · T:49%hist 39%	8 × $170 25 Sep (8d) $3,600 cyc · $13,500/mo 61% survhist 65% · T:81%hist 79%	$9,752	-$21,084 (156.9% IC)	28.6%
GOOG-LC340 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$342.39	$383.75	5 × $385 9 Oct (22d) $370 cyc · $505/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 14%	5 × $365 25 Sep (8d) $285 cyc · $1,069/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14%	5 × $355 25 Sep (8d) $820 cyc · $3,075/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 39%	🎯 5 × $352.50 25 Sep (8d) $1,075 cyc · $4,031/mo 75% survhist 84% · T:50%hist 39%	5 × $345 25 Sep (8d) $2,275 cyc · $8,531/mo 58% survhist 70% · T:86%hist 79%	$24,503	-$14,548 (57.1% IC)	12.1%
IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	20	$42.98	$57.66	20 × $60 9 Oct (22d) $640 cyc · $873/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 14%	20 × $51 25 Sep (8d) $560 cyc · $2,100/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	🎯 19 × $48.50 25 Sep (8d) $1,007 cyc · $3,776/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 30%	19 × $47 25 Sep (8d) $1,501 cyc · $5,629/mo 78% survhist 84% · T:46%hist 39%	19 × $44 25 Sep (8d) $3,135 cyc · $11,756/mo 60% survhist 70% · T:84%hist 79%	$5,005	-$16,390 (273.2% IC)	34.1%
IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	20	$42.98	$66.22	20 × $65 25 Sep (8d) $20 cyc · $75/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3%	20 × $51 25 Sep (8d) $560 cyc · $2,100/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	🎯 19 × $48.50 25 Sep (8d) $1,007 cyc · $3,776/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 30%	19 × $47 25 Sep (8d) $1,501 cyc · $5,629/mo 78% survhist 84% · T:46%hist 39%	19 × $44 25 Sep (8d) $3,135 cyc · $11,756/mo 60% survhist 70% · T:84%hist 79%	$3,610	-$32,667 (238.4% IC)	54.1%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
SPY ↗ ⚐ BORDERLINE 26% ▲ UP +1.0% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	12	$761.02	$704.25	🎯 12 × $771 25 Sep (8d) $1,500 cyc · $5,625/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 39% above floor +$80,098	12 × $776 25 Sep (8d) $588 cyc · $2,205/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% above floor +$86,098	🎯 12 × $771 25 Sep (8d) $1,500 cyc · $5,625/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 39% above floor +$80,098	11 × $768 25 Sep (8d) $2,266 cyc · $8,498/mo 72% survhist 84% · T:57%hist 44% above floor +$70,123	11 × $763 25 Sep (8d) $4,510 cyc · $16,912/mo 56% survhist 70% · T:88%hist 79% above floor +$64,623	$5,271	+$80,098 whole if assigned	0.0%
GOOG-LC300 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	15	$342.39	$346.06	🎯 15 × $355 25 Sep (8d) $2,460 cyc · $9,225/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 39% above floor +$13,413 · hole 0.6mo	15 × $365 25 Sep (8d) $855 cyc · $3,206/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14% above floor +$28,413 · hole 1.7mo	13 × $355 25 Sep (8d) $2,132 cyc · $7,995/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 39% above floor +$11,624 · hole 0.7mo	15 × $352.50 25 Sep (8d) $3,225 cyc · $12,094/mo 75% survhist 84% · T:50%hist 39% above floor +$9,663 · hole 0.5mo	14 × $345 25 Sep (8d) $6,370 cyc · $23,888/mo 58% survhist 70% · T:86%hist 79% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 0.2mo	$31,054	+$13,413 whole if assigned	1.1% whole ~5 Oct on 🎯
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ETHA Main:1299	50	$18.37	$17.33 BE	+6.0% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
HIMS Main:1299	15	$28.66	$17.47 BE	+64.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
MU-LC670 Joint:1782	1	$974.33	$792.36 BE	+23.0% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
COIN-LC500 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$166.53	$354.47	—	25 × $190 25 Sep (8d) $2,050 cyc · $7,688/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	🎯 22 × $182.50 25 Sep (8d) $3,432 cyc · $12,870/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 30%	21 × $177.50 25 Sep (8d) $5,166 cyc · $19,372/mo 76% survhist 84% · T:49%hist 39%	23 × $170 25 Sep (8d) $10,350 cyc · $38,812/mo 61% survhist 65% · T:81%hist 79%	$15,088	-$374,896 (238.0% IC)	112.9%
GLXY ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$22.58	$34.38	—	125 × $27 25 Sep (8d) $1,625 cyc · $6,094/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14%	🎯 117 × $25.50 25 Sep (8d) $2,691 cyc · $10,091/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 30%	95 × $24.50 25 Sep (8d) $4,085 cyc · $15,319/mo 75% survhist 84% · T:52%hist 44%	118 × $23.50 25 Sep (8d) $8,142 cyc · $30,532/mo 65% survhist 65% · T:74%hist 67%	$6,095	-$101,152 (366.2% IC)	52.2%
TOTAL (12)	262	following every 🎯 $16,425 cyc · $61,594/mo		$7,500 cyc · $19,725/mo 8 of 12	$8,029 cyc · $30,109/mo 11 of 12	$15,842 cyc · $59,408/mo	$23,926 cyc · $89,722/mo	$48,317 cyc · $181,189/mo	$109,056	-$641,197

Spot \ Time	≥ 12d left	3-11d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $272.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $272-275.94	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $275.94	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$275.00 (1.4σ)	$430	$3,074	+$13,247	+$3,995
+2.5%	$281.88 (1.8σ)	$-3,008	$3,284	+$13,457	+$3,995
+5%	$288.75 (2.2σ)	$-6,445	$3,494	+$13,666	+$3,995

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$264	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.32/sh	+$528 cycle +$1,000 [+$299…+$581] · 97% credit	72% surv 62%	-$2,070 NOT cap gain +$8,103
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$260	28 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.31/sh	+$125 cycle +$597 [-$4…+$176] · 74% credit	64% surv 51%	-$4,679 NOT cap gain +$5,493
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$269	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.31/sh	-$123 cycle +$349 [-$494…-$132] · 15% credit	78% surv 73%	-$234 NOT cap gain +$9,939
budget: banked $472 debit $123 (26% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$349 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,841/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $257.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $257-261.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $261.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$260.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$472	$-4,804	+$5,368	+$324
+2.5%	$266.50 (1.5σ)	$-2,128	$-3,956	+$6,217	-$2,276
+5%	$273.00 (2.1σ)	$-4,728	$-3,658	+$6,515	-$2,676

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$262	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.38/sh	+$690 cycle +$1,535 [+$381…+$692] · 97% credit	72% surv 62%	-$2,897 NOT cap gain +$7,275
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$258	28 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.36/sh	+$180 cycle +$1,025 [-$3…+$204] · 74% credit	64% surv 51%	-$5,615 NOT cap gain +$4,558
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$272	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.31/sh	-$655 cycle +$190 [-$1,268…-$748] · 1% credit	85% surv 82%	+$1,063 SAFE cap gain +$11,235
budget: banked $845 debit $655 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$190 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,442/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $254.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $255-259.24	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $259.24	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$257.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$845	$-5,794	+$4,378	+$660
+2.5%	$263.94 (1.3σ)	$-2,374	$-5,598	+$4,574	-$2,559
+5%	$270.38 (1.9σ)	$-5,592	$-5,402	+$4,771	-$4,340

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$257	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.50/sh	+$749 cycle +$2,399 [+$332…+$554] · 97% credit	72% surv 62%	-$4,686 NOT cap gain +$5,487
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$252	28 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.45/sh	+$226 cycle +$1,876 [-$20…+$109] · 69% credit	64% surv 51%	-$7,416 NOT cap gain +$2,756
Max even-money escape in the band	~$257	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.08/sh	+$41 cycle +$1,691 [-$373…-$149] · 11% credit	73% surv 64%	-$5,394 NOT cap gain +$4,778
SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$269	2 Oct 2026	11d left	-$2.39/sh	-$1,196 cycle +$454 [-$2,151…-$1,571]	92% surv 91%	+$1 SAFE cap gain +$10,173
budget: banked $1,650 debit $1,196 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$454 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $803/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $249.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $250-255.93	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $255.93	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$252.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,650	$-7,642	+$2,531	+$1,465
+2.5%	$258.81 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,506	$-7,449	+$2,723	-$1,691
+5%	$265.12 (1.4σ)	$-4,662	$-7,257	+$2,916	-$4,848
SS (= V-bounce)	$267.92 (1.6σ)	$-6,060	$-7,172	+$3,001	-$6,035

Spot \ Time	≥ 12d left	3-11d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $95-97.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $97.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.00 (1.0σ)	$1,400	$1,719	+$20,819	+$5,100
+2.5%	$98.40 (1.3σ)	$-3,400	$1,728	+$20,828	+$5,100
+5%	$100.80 (1.5σ)	$-8,200	$1,738	+$20,838	+$5,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$96	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.57/sh	+$1,140 cycle +$1,640 [+$282…+$2,096] · 83% credit	69% surv 59%	+$1,338 SAFE cap gain +$20,438
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$94	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.39/sh	+$773 cycle +$1,273 [-$50…+$1,607] · 74% credit	65% surv 52%	-$2,417 NOT cap gain +$16,683
Max even-money escape in the band	~$97	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.16/sh	+$319 cycle +$819 [-$663…+$1,266] · 59% credit	71% surv 62%	+$2,520 SAFE cap gain +$21,620
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$95	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.09/sh	+$188 cycle +$688 [-$668…+$1,013] · 53% credit	67% surv 55%	-$1,619 NOT cap gain +$17,481

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $93.06	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $93-94.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $94.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$94.00 (1.3σ)	$500	$-3,189	+$15,911	+$200
+2.5%	$96.35 (1.7σ)	$-4,200	$-3,180	+$15,920	+$200
+5%	$98.70 (2.2σ)	$-8,900	$-3,170	+$15,930	+$200

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$94	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.52/sh	+$1,032 cycle +$2,032 [-$2…+$1,678] · 75% credit	70% surv 59%	-$2,279 NOT cap gain +$16,821
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.37/sh	+$746 cycle +$1,746 [-$201…+$1,285] · 70% credit	65% surv 52%	-$5,951 NOT cap gain +$13,149
Max even-money escape in the band	~$95	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.11/sh	+$222 cycle +$1,222 [-$910…+$805] · 46% credit	72% surv 63%	-$1,085 NOT cap gain +$18,015
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$93	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.08/sh	+$161 cycle +$1,161 [-$833…+$664] · 45% credit	67% surv 55%	-$5,153 NOT cap gain +$13,947
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$96	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.35/sh	-$701 cycle +$299 [-$1,980…-$195] · 22% credit	73% surv 66%	-$4 NOT cap gain +$19,096
budget: banked $1,000 debit $701 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$299 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,847/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $91.08	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $91-92.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $92.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$92.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,000	$-6,697	+$12,403	-$300
+2.5%	$94.30 (1.4σ)	$-3,600	$-6,688	+$12,412	-$3,300
+5%	$96.60 (1.8σ)	$-8,200	$-6,679	+$12,421	-$3,300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$91	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.86/sh	+$1,552 cycle +$3,082 [+$510…+$1,703] · 89% credit	67% surv 55%	-$7,110 NOT cap gain +$11,990
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$90	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.36/sh	+$648 cycle +$2,178 [-$378…+$708] · 55% credit	65% surv 52%	-$9,397 NOT cap gain +$9,703
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$91	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.07/sh	+$121 cycle +$1,651 [-$982…+$112] · 30% credit	67% surv 55%	-$8,541 NOT cap gain +$10,559
Max even-money escape in the band	~$93	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.06/sh	+$115 cycle +$1,645 [-$1,144…+$131] · 29% credit	72% surv 63%	-$4,540 NOT cap gain +$14,560
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$96	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.83/sh	-$1,500 cycle +$30 [-$3,080…-$1,596] · 4% credit	78% surv 74%	-$581 NOT cap gain +$18,519
budget: banked $1,530 debit $1,500 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$30 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $4,386/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $89.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $89-91.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $91.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$90.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,530	$-10,045	+$9,055	+$360
+2.5%	$92.25 (1.0σ)	$-2,520	$-9,586	+$9,514	-$3,690
+5%	$94.50 (1.4σ)	$-6,570	$-9,327	+$9,773	-$5,940

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$88	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.80/sh	+$1,594 cycle +$4,594 [-$11…+$933] · 75% credit	67% surv 55%	-$10,739 NOT cap gain +$8,361
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$88	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.34/sh	+$688 cycle +$3,688 [-$877…+$75] · 28% credit	65% surv 52%	-$13,027 NOT cap gain +$6,073
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$88	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.05/sh	+$103 cycle +$3,103 [-$1,551…-$557] · 12% credit	67% surv 55%	-$12,230 NOT cap gain +$6,870
Max even-money escape in the band	~$90	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.01/sh	+$14 cycle +$3,014 [-$1,899…-$746] · 11% credit	72% surv 64%	-$8,310 NOT cap gain +$10,790
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$96	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.46/sh	-$2,920 cycle +$80 [-$5,787…-$4,016]	85% surv 84%	+$780 SAFE cap gain +$19,880
budget: banked $3,000 debit $2,920 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,341/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $86.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $87-89.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $89.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$87.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,000	$-13,715	+$5,385	+$1,700
+2.5%	$89.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,375	$-13,706	+$5,394	-$2,675
+5%	$91.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-5,750	$-13,698	+$5,402	-$7,050
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (1.2σ)	$-8,800	$-13,692	+$5,408	-$10,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$77	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.96/sh	+$576 cycle +$786 [+$495…+$858] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%	-$44,621 NOT cap gain +$6,946
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$80	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.41/sh	+$247 cycle +$457 [+$4…+$513] · 75% credit	72% surv 64%	-$43,088 NOT cap gain +$8,479
Max even-money escape in the band	~$81	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.12/sh	+$72 cycle +$282 [-$203…+$325] · 56% credit	74% surv 67%	-$42,649 NOT cap gain +$8,918
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$79	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.04/sh	+$23 cycle +$233 [-$174…+$239] · 53% credit	72% surv 62%	-$43,925 NOT cap gain +$7,642
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$82	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.18/sh	-$107 cycle +$103 [-$415…+$141] · 34% credit	76% surv 70%	-$42,214 NOT cap gain +$9,353
budget: banked $210 debit $107 (51% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$103 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,195/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $76.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $76-77.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $77.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 17 active short call(s) 2 watch · 1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

DELL

Main:1299

3x $595C 18 Sep 2026 (1d)

$573.37

$598.53

$3.05

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Main:1299

10x $222.5C 21 Sep 2026 (4d)

$218.13

$223.26

$1.00

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (29d)

$80.82

$127.58

$0.43

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 (8d)

$153.54

$166.40

$1.59

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (15d)

$106.14

$118.98

$2.17

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (29d)

$342.27

$359.26

$6.43

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (29d)

$105.49

$112.23

$1.54

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (29d)

$42.96

$55.88

$1.00

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (29d)

$42.96

$55.88

$1.00

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMD

Neville:0865

2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (36d)

$532.94

$593.17

$17.70

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SNDK

Neville:0865

1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (36d)

$1,601.86

$2,085.25

$41.25

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (36d)

$974.33

$1,252.67

$13.80

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (36d)

$974.33

$1,284.32

$10.23

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (64d)

$191.90

$224.53

$7.15

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (64d)

$128.32

$180.96

$4.83

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (64d)

$128.32

$180.95

$4.83

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (92d)

$399.75

$476.90

$3.75

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$23.32	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$23.32	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$23.32	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 64.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.88	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 37.9% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$36.15	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.6% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$43.05	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.0% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$11.03	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 34.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$11.03	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 73.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 17 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMD	Neville:0865	2	$489.91	2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (36d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (29d)
DELL	Main:1299	3	$562.50	3x $595C 18 Sep 2026 (1d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (92d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (29d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (29d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (15d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (29d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (29d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (64d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (64d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (36d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (36d)
NVDA	Main:1299	10	$264.80	10x $222C 21 Sep 2026 (4d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (64d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (36d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 (8d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2674 of 2916 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	187	56%	62%	+6pp
60-70%	366	64%	61%	-3pp
70-80%	475	76%	83%	+6pp
80-90%	619	85%	84%	-0pp
90-100%	1027	94%	95%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2674 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 10 graded weeks; last week 1.04x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 166 real buyback(s) recorded · 83 roll(s), net +$0.59/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 83 real rolls: buyback $6.77/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.59/sh (58 of 83 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-09-17 21:49

Gross FIGHT income	$586/mo
vs 50% target ($2,631/mo)	-78%
vs normal income ($5,262/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$-222/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($33,960)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-10,213

Gross FIGHT income	$1,770/mo
vs 50% target ($2,631/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($5,262/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,062/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,662
… as % of IC ($33,960)	10.8%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	7.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-8,146

Gross FIGHT income	$3,169/mo
vs 50% target ($2,631/mo)	+20%
vs normal income ($5,262/mo)	60% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,360/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,572
… as % of IC ($33,960)	16.4%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	10.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-10,198

Gross FIGHT income	$6,188/mo
vs 50% target ($2,631/mo)	+135%
vs normal income ($5,262/mo)	118% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,379/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,267
… as % of IC ($33,960)	21.4%
… as % of ML ($51,460)	14.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-10,235

Gross FIGHT income	$1,909/mo
vs 50% target ($5,500/mo)	-65%
vs normal income ($11,000/mo)	17% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,909/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($56,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-19,800

Gross FIGHT income	$1,875/mo
vs 50% target ($5,500/mo)	-66%
vs normal income ($11,000/mo)	17% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,875/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,368
… as % of IC ($56,800)	5.9%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	3.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-19,350

Gross FIGHT income	$3,750/mo
vs 50% target ($5,500/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($11,000/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,750/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,868
… as % of IC ($56,800)	12.1%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	6.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-19,450

Gross FIGHT income	$5,738/mo
vs 50% target ($5,500/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($11,000/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,998/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,151
… as % of IC ($56,800)	16.1%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	9.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-17,595

Gross FIGHT income	$11,250/mo
vs 50% target ($5,500/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($11,000/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,250/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,868
… as % of IC ($56,800)	24.4%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	13.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-19,900

Gross FIGHT income	$788/mo
vs 50% target ($2,220/mo)	-65%
vs normal income ($4,440/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$431/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$43,087
… as % of IC ($15,930)	270.5%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	61.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.7 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-51,612

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$77.00 (1.5σ)	$210	$-45,198	+$6,369	+$204
+2.5%	$78.92 (1.7σ)	$-945	$-45,171	+$6,396	-$951
+5%	$80.85 (2.0σ)	$-2,100	$-45,144	+$6,423	-$2,106
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (10.9σ)	$-38,520	$-44,307	+$7,260	-$19,596

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$74	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.01/sh	+$609 cycle +$1,053 [+$472…+$781] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$46,196 NOT cap gain +$5,371
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$77	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.46/sh	+$277 cycle +$721 [-$42…+$388] · 72% credit	72% surv 64%	-$44,665 NOT cap gain +$6,902
Max even-money escape in the band	~$78	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.17/sh	+$103 cycle +$547 [-$243…+$198] · 46% credit	74% surv 67%	-$44,225 NOT cap gain +$7,342
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$76	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.10/sh	+$57 cycle +$501 [-$192…+$146] · 44% credit	72% surv 62%	-$45,498 NOT cap gain +$6,069
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$81	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.62/sh	-$369 cycle +$75 [-$813…-$296] · 9% credit	80% surv 76%	-$42,856 NOT cap gain +$8,711
budget: banked $444 debit $369 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,665/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$1,665/mo
vs 50% target ($2,220/mo)	-25%
vs normal income ($4,440/mo)	38% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,309/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,653
… as % of IC ($15,930)	280.3%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	63.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.1 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-51,585

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $73.26	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $73-74.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $74.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$74.00 (1.0σ)	$444	$-46,805	+$4,762	+$438
+2.5%	$75.85 (1.3σ)	$-666	$-46,779	+$4,788	-$672
+5%	$77.70 (1.6σ)	$-1,776	$-46,754	+$4,813	-$1,782
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (10.9σ)	$-40,086	$-45,873	+$5,694	-$21,162

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$72	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.05/sh	+$628 cycle +$1,258 [+$446…+$704] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$47,218 NOT cap gain +$4,349
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$75	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.49/sh	+$294 cycle +$924 [-$66…+$332] · 66% credit	72% surv 64%	-$45,689 NOT cap gain +$5,878
Max even-money escape in the band	~$76	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.20/sh	+$121 cycle +$751 [-$273…+$139] · 36% credit	75% surv 67%	-$45,249 NOT cap gain +$6,318
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$74	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.13/sh	+$78 cycle +$708 [-$208…+$100] · 35% credit	72% surv 62%	-$46,520 NOT cap gain +$5,047
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$81	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.96/sh	-$576 cycle +$54 [-$1,157…-$623] · 2% credit	83% surv 81%	-$42,876 NOT cap gain +$8,691
budget: banked $630 debit $576 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,260/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$2,362/mo
vs 50% target ($2,220/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($4,440/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,006/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$45,667
… as % of IC ($15,930)	286.7%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	65.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.3 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-51,606

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $71.28	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $71-73.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $73.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$72.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$630	$-47,847	+$3,720	+$624
+2.5%	$73.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-450	$-47,822	+$3,745	-$456
+5%	$75.60 (1.3σ)	$-1,530	$-47,797	+$3,770	-$1,536
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (10.9σ)	$-41,100	$-46,887	+$4,680	-$22,176

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$68	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.10/sh	+$661 cycle +$2,041 [+$418…+$541] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$48,891 NOT cap gain +$2,676
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$70	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.88/sh	+$529 cycle +$1,909 [+$83…+$327] · 82% credit	71% surv 61%	-$47,773 NOT cap gain +$3,794
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$70	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.19/sh	+$113 cycle +$1,493 [-$266…-$56] · 16% credit	72% surv 62%	-$48,190 NOT cap gain +$3,377
Max even-money escape in the band	~$72	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.25/sh	+$150 cycle +$1,530 [-$378…-$80] · 15% credit	75% surv 68%	-$46,925 NOT cap gain +$4,642
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$79	2 Oct 2026	11d left	-$1.63/sh	-$980 cycle +$400 [-$1,829…-$1,296]	91% surv 90%	-$43,758 NOT cap gain +$7,809
budget: banked $1,380 debit $980 (71% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$400 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $757/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$5,175/mo
vs 50% target ($2,220/mo)	+133%
vs normal income ($4,440/mo)	117% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,819/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$47,317
… as % of IC ($15,930)	297.0%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	67.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.7 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-51,612

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $67.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $67-70.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $70.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.