FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s)  |  12 deep drawdown (FIGHT)  |  5 underwater (not deep DD)  |  0 uncapped above water  |  24 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $84,892/mo (51% of normal target)

GENERATED2026-07-16 03:39
⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these
BMNR 2026-07-16 · TODAYNEM 2026-07-24 · 8dGLXY 2026-07-28 · 12dENPH 2026-07-29 · 13dMARA 2026-07-29 · 13dMSTR 2026-07-31 · 15dRIOT 2026-07-31 · 15d
Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped   click a fortress for the full decision dashboard

FortressAcctCtPriceCC-SS↑ whole🎯 RecommendedChal oddsPer cycleIncome/moFloorNet/moBankedPOPCap @ CC-SSRec (mo)
NEM ↗Main:12995$95.56$118.5624.1%Sell 5 x $104 (8d) [Next Fri]26%$385$1,44473%$1,245$40889%-$6,897 (51.0% IC)1.7
BMNR ↗RetireInc:729150$15.81$19.3222.2%Sell 47 x $18 (8d) [Next Fri]28%$846$3,17267%$3,110-88%-$5,347 (17.1% IC)0.6
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗Joint:178250$12.21$19.2958.0%Sell 43 x $14 (8d) [Next Fri]29%$688$2,58067%$2,608-88%-$22,066 (101.9% IC)2.9
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗Main:1299200$12.21$17.8246.0%Sell 170 x $14 (8d) [Next Fri]29%$2,720$10,20066%$10,320-88%-$62,292 (819.6% IC)2.0
RKLB ↗RetireInc:72916$76.38$148.0893.9%Sell 6 x $87 (8d) [Next Fri]30%$612$2,29574%$1,966-88%-$36,037 (226.2% IC)5.8
MSTR ↗RetireInc:72914$97.00$166.7071.9%Sell 4 x $110 (8d) [Next Fri]30%$500$1,87567%$1,582-87%-$22,181 (462.1% IC)4.0
MU-LC970 ↗Neville:08652$907.44$1,250.2437.8%Sell 2 x $1055 (8d) [Next Fri]30%$2,800$10,50068%$10,040$2,44987%-$36,247 (72.5% IC)1.2
CRWV ↗Neville:08655$77.25$129.2167.3%Sell 5 x $88 (8d) [Next Fri]33%$570$2,13773%$1,934$1,31187%-$20,035 (195.9% IC)3.4
ETHA ↗Main:129950$14.53$17.9323.4%Sell 48 x $15.50 (8d) [Next Fri]33%$480$1,80067%$1,425-86%-$11,166 (51.6% IC)2.1
GLXY ↗Main:1299125$24.44$33.2536.0%Sell 105 x $27.50 (8d) [Next Fri]42%$4,620$17,32566%$17,365$1,75484%-$55,727 (201.7% IC)1.1
COPX ↗ Joint:17821$77.38$95.0822.9%Sell 1 x $80.50 (8d) [Next Fri]42%$80$300111%$300$3579%-$1,378 (48.5% IC)2.6
ENPH ↗RetireInc:729110$43.77$58.7134.1%Sell 10 x $47 (8d) [Next Fri]44%$1,080$4,050107%$3,952$80679%-$10,630 (145.6% IC)1.4
TOTAL (12)508$15,381$57,67969%$55,846$6,762-$290,005

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 25 active short call(s)   4 TRIPPED  ·  4 watch  ·  1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

FortressAcctCallSpotBreakevenMarkTime valueStatusAction
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$368.93$361.87$10.40$1.32TRIPPED ▸🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸
GOOG-LC340Neville:086515x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$368.93$361.87$10.40$1.32TRIPPED ▸🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸
GOOG-LC310Main:129910x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$368.93$361.80$10.40$1.32TRIPPED ▸🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸
METAMain:12993x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (15d)$676.05$653.94$63.88$17.44TRIPPED ▸🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸
GOOG-LC310Joint:17825x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$368.93$370.65$3.67$3.67WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GLDMain:129910x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$372.25$379.86$0.56$0.56WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SPYNeville:086512x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (5d)$753.84$764.39$0.34$0.34WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NVDANeville:08655x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)$211.38$219.51$2.80$2.80WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SPCXNeville:08655x $155C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$134.94$155.80$0.17$0.17HARVEST ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
DELLRetireInc:72913x $425C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$409.98$429.66$6.67$6.67OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC165Main:12998x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$166.12$176.27$1.27$1.27OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COPXJoint:178219x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$77.36$81.90$0.12$0.12OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
QCOMRetireInc:72915x $190C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$178.71$191.30$0.62$0.62OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
APPRetireInc:72911x $490C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$451.46$493.00$1.45$1.45OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NOWMain:129910x $115C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$105.11$115.42$0.14$0.14OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC45Neville:086520x $43C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$38.56$43.30$0.22$0.22OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC50RetireInc:729120x $43C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)$38.56$43.31$0.22$0.22OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IGVMain:129912x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)$93.84$100.97$0.35$0.35OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
HIMSMain:129915x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)$37.12$41.03$1.50$1.50OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
INTCNeville:08655x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)$102.24$124.00$2.30$2.30OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC25Main:129920x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)$38.56$48.42$0.41$0.41OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC25Joint:178220x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)$38.56$48.44$0.41$0.41OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
AMZNJoint:178210x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (15d)$254.09$283.10$2.75$2.75OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC145RetireInc:72913x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (15d)$166.12$193.34$3.83$3.83OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SOFIRetireInc:729135x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (15d)$17.94$23.27$0.12$0.12OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown   sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

FortressAcctCtPriceCC-SS↑ wholeSell strikeTouch oddsPer cycleIncome @ strikeNormal incomeAction
MARA-LC25 ↗Neville:0865250$12.21$14.6620.0%$15 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · 89% surv24%$4,000$8,000/mo (21%)$38,500/mosell 250x $15 CC
CLSK ↗RetireInc:729125$14.11$17.1921.9%$17.50 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · 88% surv25%$525$1,050/mo (20%)$5,125/mosell 25x $17.50 CC
MDB ↗Neville:08651$334.32$383.2414.6%$385 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · 86% surv29%$385$770/mo (22%)$3,580/mosell 1x $385 CC
RIOT ↗Joint:178250$20.14$21.446.4%$22.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · 81% surv39%$1,700$6,375/mo (43%)$15,000/mosell 50x $22.50 CC
MU-LC880 ↗Main:12995$907.44$1,059.6216.8%$1060 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · 80% surv43%$13,975$27,950/mo (36%)$76,858/mosell 5x $1060 CC
CAPPED: 24 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope
FortressAcctCtBE SSActive short calls
AMZNJoint:178210$256.2510x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (15d)
APPRetireInc:72911$588.001x $490C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
COIN-LC145RetireInc:72913$182.403x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (15d)
COIN-LC165Main:12998$210.908x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
DELLRetireInc:72913$398.003x $425C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
GLDMain:129910$456.0010x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515$373.0015x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
GOOG-LC310Joint:17825$392.505x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC310Main:129910$392.5010x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340Neville:08655$398.0015x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
HIMSMain:129915$17.4715x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)
IGVMain:129912$96.5012x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTCNeville:08655$114.005x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)
IREN-LC25Main:129920$44.0020x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)
IREN-LC25Joint:178220$44.0020x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)
IREN-LC45Neville:086520$56.5020x $43C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
IREN-LC50RetireInc:729120$63.4320x $43C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
METAMain:12993$601.503x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (15d)
NOWMain:129910$108.9310x $115C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
NVDANeville:08655$199.605x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (8d)
QCOMRetireInc:72915$224.005x $190C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
SOFIRetireInc:729135$15.7535x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (15d)
SPCXNeville:08655$186.005x $155C 17 Jul 2026 (1d)
SPYNeville:086512$764.0012x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (5d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 327 of 1156 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?
Predicted survivalNAvg predictedRealized OTM rateGap
0-60%1458%57%-1pp
60-70%4664%72%+8pp
70-80%6177%95%+18pp
80-90%7685%99%+14pp
90-100%13095%100%+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 35% avg vs realized 24% touch rate over 327 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 48 real buyback(s) recorded · 13 roll(s), net +$1.01/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all  |  2026-07-16 03:39