FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

45 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 16 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 5 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 24 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $151,826/mo (51% of normal target)

⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these

GOOG 2026-07-23 · 6dNOW 2026-07-23 · 6dNEM 2026-07-24 · 7dGLXY 2026-07-28 · 11dENPH 2026-07-29 · 12dMARA 2026-07-29 · 12dQCOM 2026-07-30 · 13dCLSK 2026-08-07 · 21dRKLB 2026-08-07 · 21d

Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	50	$15.53	$19.55	50 × $18 $550 cyc · $2,357/mo 91% surv · T:19%	🎯 46 × $17.50 $782 cyc · $3,351/mo 87% surv · T:42%	35 × $16.50 $1,190 cyc · $5,100/mo 73% surv · T:55%	48 × $16 $2,352 cyc · $10,080/mo 63% surv · T:76%	-	-$8,669 (27.7% IC)	26.0%
CLSK ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	25	$13.14	$17.35	25 × $15.50 $325 cyc · $1,393/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 19 × $15 $380 cyc · $1,629/mo 85% surv · T:32%	19 × $14.50 $570 cyc · $2,443/mo 79% surv · T:44%	20 × $13.50 $1,160 cyc · $4,971/mo 60% surv · T:83%	-	-$4,077 (43.6% IC)	32.0%
COPX ↗ ⚐ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	1	$74.65	$95.37	1 × $81 $15 cyc · $64/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯 1 × $79 $50 cyc · $214/mo 83% surv · T:35%	1 × $78 $65 cyc · $279/mo 77% surv · T:46%	1 × $76 $130 cyc · $557/mo 63% surv · T:76%	$35	-$1,587 (55.9% IC)	27.8%
ENPH ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	10	$41.34	$58.13	10 × $48.50 $220 cyc · $943/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯 10 × $45.50 $610 cyc · $2,614/mo 81% surv · T:44%	9 × $44 $873 cyc · $3,741/mo 72% surv · T:57%	9 × $41.50 $1,755 cyc · $7,521/mo 54% surv · T:97%	$806	-$12,022 (164.7% IC)	40.6%
ETHA ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	50	$14.08	$17.82	50 × $15.50 $250 cyc · $1,071/mo 92% surv · T:16%	🎯 42 × $15 $420 cyc · $1,800/mo 83% surv · T:52%	29 × $14.50 $638 cyc · $2,734/mo 68% surv · T:66%	30 × $14 $1,260 cyc · $5,400/mo 48% surv · T:99+%	-	-$11,429 (52.8% IC)	26.6%
MU-LC880 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	5	$843.73	$1,050.20	5 × $1000 $4,325 cyc · $18,536/mo 90% surv · T:20%	5 × $975 $5,875 cyc · $25,179/mo 87% surv · T:27%	🎯 5 × $940 $8,900 cyc · $38,143/mo 80% surv · T:31%	5 × $880 $17,700 cyc · $75,857/mo 64% surv · T:75%	$9,776	-$46,200 (62.2% IC)	24.5%
MU-LC970 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	2	$843.73	$1,240.95	2 × $1000 $1,730 cyc · $7,414/mo 90% surv · T:20%	2 × $975 $2,350 cyc · $10,071/mo 87% surv · T:27%	🎯 2 × $940 $3,560 cyc · $15,257/mo 80% surv · T:30%	2 × $880 $7,080 cyc · $30,343/mo 64% surv · T:75%	$2,449	-$56,630 (113.3% IC)	47.1%
NEM ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	5	$91.45	$117.57	5 × $102 $215 cyc · $921/mo 91% surv · T:18%	5 × $100 $325 cyc · $1,393/mo 87% surv · T:27%	🎯 5 × $98 $490 cyc · $2,100/mo 81% surv · T:30%	5 × $94 $1,055 cyc · $4,521/mo 64% surv · T:73%	$408	-$9,294 (68.7% IC)	28.6%
QCOM ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	5	$170.97	$227.97	5 × $192.50 $505 cyc · $2,164/mo 91% surv · T:19%	🎯 5 × $185 $995 cyc · $4,264/mo 82% surv · T:42%	5 × $180 $1,500 cyc · $6,429/mo 73% surv · T:55%	5 × $172.50 $2,875 cyc · $12,321/mo 56% surv · T:92%	$1,446	-$20,491 (120.5% IC)	33.3%
RKLB ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	6	$67.09	$149.11	6 × $79 $330 cyc · $1,414/mo 90% surv · T:20%	6 × $77 $486 cyc · $2,083/mo 87% surv · T:27%	🎯 6 × $75 $678 cyc · $2,906/mo 82% surv · T:27%	6 × $70 $1,446 cyc · $6,197/mo 65% surv · T:72%	-	-$43,790 (274.9% IC)	122.3%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
BMNR-LC23-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	75	$15.53	$37.01	75 × $18 $825 cyc · $3,536/mo 91% surv · T:19%	🎯 69 × $17.50 $1,173 cyc · $5,027/mo 87% surv · T:40%	52 × $16.50 $1,768 cyc · $7,577/mo 73% surv · T:55%	72 × $16 $3,528 cyc · $15,120/mo 63% surv · T:76%	-	-$133,442 (0.0% IC)	138.4%
BMNR-LC23-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	150	$15.53	$20.89	150 × $18 $1,650 cyc · $7,071/mo 91% surv · T:19%	🎯 137 × $17.50 $2,329 cyc · $9,981/mo 87% surv · T:43%	104 × $16.50 $3,536 cyc · $15,154/mo 73% surv · T:55%	144 × $16 $7,056 cyc · $30,240/mo 63% surv · T:76%	-	-$44,129 (0.0% IC)	34.6%
BMNR-LC25 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	50	$15.53	$54.19	50 × $18 $550 cyc · $2,357/mo 91% surv · T:19%	🎯 46 × $17.50 $782 cyc · $3,351/mo 87% surv · T:42%	35 × $16.50 $1,190 cyc · $5,100/mo 73% surv · T:55%	48 × $16 $2,352 cyc · $10,080/mo 63% surv · T:76%	-	-$168,009 (177.7% IC)	249.1%
GLXY ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$22.59	$33.81	125 × $27 $2,250 cyc · $9,643/mo 91% surv · T:18%	94 × $25.50 $3,572 cyc · $15,309/mo 83% surv · T:36%	🎯 109 × $25 $5,450 cyc · $23,357/mo 79% surv · T:33%	108 × $23 $10,908 cyc · $46,749/mo 58% surv · T:89%	$1,754	-$90,528 (327.7% IC)	49.6%
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	200	$11.48	$18.12	200 × $13.50 $2,000 cyc · $8,571/mo 91% surv · T:20%	🎯 166 × $13 $2,656 cyc · $11,383/mo 85% surv · T:36%	154 × $12.50 $4,004 cyc · $17,160/mo 76% surv · T:49%	200 × $12 $8,000 cyc · $34,286/mo 66% surv · T:72%	-	-$82,351 (1083.6% IC)	57.8%
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	50	$11.48	$19.18	50 × $13.50 $500 cyc · $2,143/mo 91% surv · T:20%	🎯 42 × $13 $672 cyc · $2,880/mo 85% surv · T:36%	39 × $12.50 $1,014 cyc · $4,346/mo 76% surv · T:49%	50 × $12 $2,000 cyc · $8,571/mo 66% surv · T:72%	-	-$25,286 (116.8% IC)	67.0%
TOTAL (16)	809	following every 🎯 $29,927 cyc · $128,259/mo		$16,240 cyc · $69,600/mo	$23,457 cyc · $100,530/mo	$35,426 cyc · $151,826/mo	$70,657 cyc · $302,816/mo	$16,673	-$757,935

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$1,908 [+$1,182…+$2,077] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$6,848 NOT cap gain +$16,102
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.19/sh	+$962 cycle +$1,512 [+$469…+$1,704] · 88% credit	77% surv 70%	+$1,215 SAFE cap gain +$24,165
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.07/sh	+$353 cycle +$903 [-$1…+$953] · 75% credit	72% surv 61%	-$5,129 NOT cap gain +$17,821
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$107 cycle +$657 [-$545…+$799] · 53% credit	80% surv 75%	+$3,228 SAFE cap gain +$26,178
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.04/sh	-$207 cycle +$343 [-$914…+$450] · 39% credit	83% surv 79%	+$5,782 SAFE cap gain +$28,732
budget: banked $550 debit $207 (38% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$343 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $3,515/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$550	$-8,206	+$14,744	+$3,300
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.8σ)	$-1,700	$-7,875	+$15,075	+$3,300
+5%	$18.90 (2.0σ)	$-3,950	$-7,544	+$15,406	+$3,300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (46 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$1,285 cycle +$2,067 [+$975…+$1,627] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$9,576 NOT cap gain +$13,374
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$907 cycle +$1,689 [+$199…+$1,215] · 81% credit	77% surv 70%	-$2,085 NOT cap gain +$20,865
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$362 cycle +$1,144 [-$142…+$612] · 67% credit	72% surv 61%	-$7,966 NOT cap gain +$14,984
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.03/sh	+$127 cycle +$909 [-$723…+$406] · 40% credit	80% surv 75%	-$197 NOT cap gain +$22,753
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$663 cycle +$119 [-$1,681…-$427] · 13% credit	85% surv 83%	+$4,347 SAFE cap gain +$27,297
budget: banked $782 debit $663 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$119 cash · rolled 46 ct earn ≈ $2,546/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.68	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.68	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$782	$-10,861	+$12,089	+$1,012
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.5σ)	$-1,230	$-10,540	+$12,410	+$1,012
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-3,243	$-10,218	+$12,732	+$1,012

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (35 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.29/sh	+$1,024 cycle +$2,214 [+$689…+$1,067] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$14,470 NOT cap gain +$8,480
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$711 cycle +$1,901 [+$40…+$655] · 78% credit	78% surv 71%	-$7,786 NOT cap gain +$15,164
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$323 cycle +$1,513 [-$147…+$289] · 58% credit	72% surv 61%	-$12,446 NOT cap gain +$10,504
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$130 cycle +$1,320 [-$667…+$32] · 27% credit	80% surv 75%	-$6,250 NOT cap gain +$16,700
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.27/sh	-$934 cycle +$256 [-$1,953…-$1,096] · 0% credit	90% surv 89%	+$1,157 SAFE cap gain +$24,107
budget: banked $1,190 debit $934 (78% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$256 cash · rolled 35 ct earn ≈ $1,254/mo while parked; 15 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.34	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.86	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.86	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,190	$-15,493	+$7,457	-$385
+2.5%	$16.91 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-254	$-14,571	+$8,379	-$1,829
+5%	$17.32 (1.1σ)	$-1,697	$-14,137	+$8,813	-$2,135

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (48 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.30/sh	+$1,429 cycle +$3,781 [+$887…+$1,278] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%	-$16,355 NOT cap gain +$6,595
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$981 cycle +$3,333 [-$78…+$626] · 71% credit	78% surv 71%	-$8,439 NOT cap gain +$14,511
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.10/sh	+$469 cycle +$2,821 [-$265…+$220] · 51% credit	72% surv 62%	-$14,591 NOT cap gain +$8,359
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$192 cycle +$2,544 [-$1,042…-$228] · 17% credit	80% surv 76%	-$6,460 NOT cap gain +$16,490
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.26/sh	-$1,247 cycle +$1,105 [-$2,841…-$1,773] · 0% credit	90% surv 89%	+$3,171 SAFE cap gain +$26,121
budget: banked $2,352 debit $1,247 (53% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,105 cash · rolled 48 ct earn ≈ $1,662/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,352	$-17,784	+$5,166	+$192
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$432	$-17,410	+$5,540	-$1,728
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,488	$-17,036	+$5,914	-$3,648
SS (= V-bounce)	$17.13 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-3,072	$-16,753	+$6,197	-$4,608

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (75 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$2,037 cycle +$2,862 [+$1,692…+$2,889] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$148,958 NOT cap gain +$21,555
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.19/sh	+$1,443 cycle +$2,268 [+$557…+$2,216] · 84% credit	77% surv 70%	-$138,412 NOT cap gain +$32,101
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.07/sh	+$529 cycle +$1,354 [-$103…+$1,126] · 72% credit	72% surv 61%	-$146,878 NOT cap gain +$23,634
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$160 cycle +$985 [-$938…+$896] · 49% credit	80% surv 75%	-$135,918 NOT cap gain +$34,594
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.04/sh	-$310 cycle +$515 [-$1,453…+$394] · 36% credit	83% surv 79%	-$132,613 NOT cap gain +$37,900
budget: banked $825 debit $310 (38% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$515 cash · rolled 75 ct earn ≈ $5,273/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$825	$-150,995	+$19,517	+$750
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.8σ)	$-2,550	$-150,971	+$19,541	-$2,625
+5%	$18.90 (2.0σ)	$-5,925	$-150,948	+$19,565	-$6,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-157,650	$-149,886	+$20,627	-$36,750

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (69 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$1,928 cycle +$3,101 [+$1,505…+$2,499] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$152,489 NOT cap gain +$18,023
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$1,361 cycle +$2,534 [+$372…+$1,894] · 84% credit	77% surv 70%	-$141,916 NOT cap gain +$28,596
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$543 cycle +$1,716 [-$153…+$976] · 69% credit	72% surv 61%	-$150,287 NOT cap gain +$20,225
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.03/sh	+$191 cycle +$1,364 [-$1,008…+$689] · 43% credit	80% surv 75%	-$139,310 NOT cap gain +$31,203
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$995 cycle +$178 [-$2,432…-$586] · 13% credit	85% surv 83%	-$132,943 NOT cap gain +$37,569
budget: banked $1,173 debit $995 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$178 cash · rolled 69 ct earn ≈ $3,820/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.68	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.68	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$1,173	$-154,417	+$16,095	+$1,104
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.5σ)	$-1,846	$-154,132	+$16,381	-$1,915
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-4,864	$-153,846	+$16,666	-$4,934
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-148,074	$-149,982	+$20,531	-$36,846

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (52 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.29/sh	+$1,521 cycle +$3,289 [+$1,026…+$1,583] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$159,837 NOT cap gain +$10,675
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$1,056 cycle +$2,824 [+$92…+$985] · 79% credit	78% surv 71%	-$149,161 NOT cap gain +$21,351
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$480 cycle +$2,248 [-$194…+$432] · 59% credit	72% surv 61%	-$157,291 NOT cap gain +$13,222
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$193 cycle +$1,961 [-$944…+$33] · 27% credit	80% surv 75%	-$146,249 NOT cap gain +$24,264
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.27/sh	-$1,388 cycle +$380 [-$2,866…-$1,646] · 0% credit	90% surv 89%	-$132,724 NOT cap gain +$37,788
budget: banked $1,768 debit $1,388 (78% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$380 cash · rolled 52 ct earn ≈ $1,863/mo while parked; 23 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.34	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.86	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.86	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,768	$-161,358	+$9,155	+$1,716
+2.5%	$16.91 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-377	$-160,387	+$10,125	-$429
+5%	$17.32 (1.1σ)	$-2,522	$-159,417	+$11,096	-$2,574
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-115,908	$-145,220	+$25,293	-$32,084

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (72 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.30/sh	+$2,143 cycle +$5,671 [+$1,337…+$1,918] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%	-$161,251 NOT cap gain +$9,261
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$1,471 cycle +$4,999 [-$90…+$944] · 72% credit	78% surv 71%	-$150,783 NOT cap gain +$19,729
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.10/sh	+$704 cycle +$4,232 [-$381…+$333] · 50% credit	72% surv 62%	-$159,103 NOT cap gain +$11,410
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$289 cycle +$3,817 [-$1,542…-$315] · 17% credit	80% surv 76%	-$148,189 NOT cap gain +$22,323
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.26/sh	-$1,870 cycle +$1,658 [-$4,208…-$2,653] · 0% credit	90% surv 89%	-$135,243 NOT cap gain +$35,269
budget: banked $3,528 debit $1,870 (53% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,658 cash · rolled 72 ct earn ≈ $2,492/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,528	$-163,394	+$7,118	+$3,456
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$648	$-163,253	+$7,259	+$576
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,232	$-163,112	+$7,400	-$2,304
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-163,008	$-160,080	+$10,433	-$46,944

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (150 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$4,074 cycle +$5,724 [+$3,394…+$5,449] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$32,566 NOT cap gain +$43,109
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.19/sh	+$2,886 cycle +$4,536 [+$1,169…+$4,314] · 85% credit	77% surv 70%	-$11,474 NOT cap gain +$64,201
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.07/sh	+$1,058 cycle +$2,708 [-$138…+$2,205] · 72% credit	72% surv 61%	-$28,407 NOT cap gain +$47,268
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$321 cycle +$1,971 [-$1,830…+$1,623] · 46% credit	80% surv 75%	-$6,487 NOT cap gain +$69,188
SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.04/sh	-$620 cycle +$1,030 [-$2,980…+$564] · 31% credit	83% surv 79%	+$125 SAFE cap gain +$75,800
budget: banked $1,650 debit $620 (38% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,030 cash · rolled 150 ct earn ≈ $10,546/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$1,650	$-36,640	+$39,035	+$1,500
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.8σ)	$-5,100	$-36,593	+$39,082	-$5,250
+5%	$18.90 (2.0σ)	$-11,850	$-36,546	+$39,129	-$12,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-182,700	$-35,350	+$40,325	-$73,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (137 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$3,828 cycle +$6,157 [+$3,052…+$4,890] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$39,672 NOT cap gain +$36,003
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$2,702 cycle +$5,031 [+$911…+$3,851] · 85% credit	77% surv 70%	-$18,518 NOT cap gain +$57,157
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$1,077 cycle +$3,406 [-$183…+$1,991] · 71% credit	72% surv 61%	-$35,248 NOT cap gain +$40,427
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.03/sh	+$380 cycle +$2,709 [-$1,776…+$1,435] · 44% credit	80% surv 75%	-$13,289 NOT cap gain +$62,386
SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$1,975 cycle +$354 [-$4,540…-$1,113] · 16% credit	85% surv 83%	-$538 NOT cap gain +$75,137
budget: banked $2,329 debit $1,975 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$354 cash · rolled 137 ct earn ≈ $7,584/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.68	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.68	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 25 active short call(s) 2 TRIPPED · 1 watch · 2 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress Acct Call Spot Breakeven Mark Time value Status Action

META Main:1299 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) $669.48 $653.94 $56.97 $18.10 TRIPPED ▸ 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy

$38.87/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $18.10 is live theta (~$5,431). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss.

▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs.

GOOG-LC300 Neville:0865 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) $370.60 $385.01 $14.65 $13.84 TRIPPED ▸ 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you

$0.81/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GOOG 1:1); only $13.84 is live theta (~$20,760). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. Rolling $370→$375 banks +$2.89/sh (+$4,331) and sells fatter forward theta, you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it.

▸ Gate on price: hold while GOOG is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $375, above which this credit door closes.

🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 15x $370C at ~$14.64 ($21,956), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask

CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (15 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$375 21 Aug 2026 (35d)	$15.99	+$1.35	+$2,025	+$51,090	54%	OUT+UP
$375 28 Aug 2026 (42d)	$17.53	+$2.89	+$4,331	+$53,397	54%	OUT+UP
$380 28 Aug 2026 (42d)	$15.03	+$0.39	+$581	+$56,269	58%	OUT+UP

SPY Neville:0865 12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (4d) $752.01 $764.39 $0.17 $0.17 WATCH ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

11.99 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$411 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $764.39 (breakeven).

🚪 Escape paths deferred , SPY is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers SPY.

COIN-LC165 Main:1299 8x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (0d) $162.66 $176.27 $0.28 $0.28 HARVEST ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

12.34 OTM. The $0.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$976 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $174.12 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.

COPX Joint:1782 19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (0d) $74.51 $81.90 $0.05 $0.05 HARVEST ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

6.99 OTM. The $0.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$665 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $81.09 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.

DELL RetireInc:7291 3x $425C 17 Jul 2026 (0d) $400.24 $429.66 $1.50 $1.50 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

24.76 OTM. The $1.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,383 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $429.66 (breakeven).

GLD Main:1299 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $365.44 $378.34 $1.21 $1.21 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

11.56 OTM. The $1.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,292 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $378.34 (breakeven).

NVDA Neville:0865 5x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $206.90 $219.51 $1.39 $1.39 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

10.60 OTM. The $1.39 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$978 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $219.51 (breakeven).

MDB Neville:0865 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $330.08 $355.09 $6.67 $6.67 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

19.92 OTM. The $6.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$504 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $355.09 (breakeven).

APP RetireInc:7291 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $439.49 $486.90 $6.00 $6.00 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

40.51 OTM. The $6.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$685 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $486.90 (breakeven).

MSTR RetireInc:7291 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $94.25 $106.34 $1.32 $1.32 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

10.75 OTM. The $1.32 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$517 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $106.34 (breakeven).

SPCX Neville:0865 5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $131.41 $151.58 $1.20 $1.20 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

18.59 OTM. The $1.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$766 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $151.58 (breakeven).

HIMS Main:1299 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $34.81 $41.03 $0.79 $0.79 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

5.19 OTM. The $0.79 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,473 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $41.03 (breakeven).

COIN-LC500 Main:1299 25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $162.66 $188.61 $1.05 $1.05 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

24.84 OTM. The $1.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,641 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $188.61 (breakeven).

CRWV Neville:0865 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $72.64 $84.96 $0.83 $0.83 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

11.36 OTM. The $0.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.96 (breakeven).

RIOT Joint:1782 50x $21.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $18.43 $21.78 $0.21 $0.21 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

3.07 OTM. The $0.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,150 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $21.78 (breakeven).

IREN-LC45 Neville:0865 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $34.76 $42.67 $0.53 $0.53 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

7.24 OTM. The $0.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven).

IREN-LC50 RetireInc:7291 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $34.76 $42.67 $0.53 $0.53 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

7.24 OTM. The $0.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven).

INTC Neville:0865 5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $96.27 $124.00 $1.21 $1.21 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

24.73 OTM. The $1.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,475 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.00 (breakeven).

IREN-LC25-1299 Main:1299 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $34.76 $48.42 $0.13 $0.13 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

13.24 OTM. The $0.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$746 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.42 (breakeven).

IREN-LC25-1782 Joint:1782 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) $34.76 $48.44 $0.13 $0.13 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

13.24 OTM. The $0.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$786 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.44 (breakeven).

GOOG-LC310 Joint:1782 5x $390C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) $370.81 $397.40 $6.80 $6.80 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

19.19 OTM. The $6.80 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,675 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $397.40 (breakeven).

AMZN Joint:1782 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) $255.74 $283.10 $2.92 $2.92 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

24.26 OTM. The $2.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,048 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $283.10 (breakeven).

COIN-LC145 RetireInc:7291 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) $162.66 $193.34 $3.42 $3.42 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

27.34 OTM. The $3.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$988 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $193.34 (breakeven).

SOFI RetireInc:7291 35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) $17.41 $23.27 $0.08 $0.08 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

5.59 OTM. The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$770 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.27 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
GOOG-LC340 ↗	Neville:0865	5	$370.60	$373.15	0.7%	$390 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 83% surv	34%	$2,525	$10,821/mo (74%)	$14,679/mo	sell 5x $390 CC
MARA-LC25 ↗	Neville:0865	250	$11.48	$14.18	23.5%	$14.50 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · 84% surv	35%	$9,250	$9,911/mo (23%)	$42,857/mo	sell 250x $14.50 CC
IGV ↗	Main:1299	12	$93.82	$87.07	0.0%	$97.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv	39%	$660	$2,829/mo (44%)	$6,429/mo	sell 12x $97.50 CC
NOW ↗	Main:1299	10	$104.20	$112.59	8.1%	$117 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv	41%	$2,360	$10,114/mo (63%)	$16,071/mo	sell 10x $117 CC
MARA-LC40 ↗	Main:1299	200	$11.48	$13.80	20.1%	$14 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · 81% surv	42%	$8,800	$9,429/mo (27%)	$34,286/mo	sell 200x $14 CC

CAPPED: 24 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (0d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $188C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $425C 17 Jul 2026 (0d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $390C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
MSTR	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
RIOT	Joint:1782	50	$23.65	50x $22C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$15.75	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (4d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 327 of 1408 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	14	58%	57%	-1pp
60-70%	46	64%	72%	+8pp
70-80%	61	77%	95%	+18pp
80-90%	76	85%	99%	+14pp
90-100%	130	95%	100%	+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 35% avg vs realized 24% touch rate over 327 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 54 real buyback(s) recorded · 13 roll(s), net +$1.01/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-17 01:37

Gross FIGHT income	$2,357/mo
vs 50% target ($5,009/mo)	-53%
vs normal income ($10,018/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,929/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,223
… as % of IC ($31,250)	23.1%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	10.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)	$-23,025

Gross FIGHT income	$3,351/mo
vs 50% target ($5,009/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($10,018/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,309/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,669
… as % of IC ($31,250)	27.7%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	12.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-21,137

Gross FIGHT income	$5,100/mo
vs 50% target ($5,009/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($10,018/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,118/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,501
… as % of IC ($31,250)	30.4%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	13.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (35 ct)	$-16,152

Gross FIGHT income	$10,080/mo
vs 50% target ($5,009/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($10,018/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,844/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,710
… as % of IC ($31,250)	47.1%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	20.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (48 ct)	$-22,224

Gross FIGHT income	$3,536/mo
vs 50% target ($7,513/mo)	-53%
vs normal income ($15,027/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,536/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$141,746
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	186.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.4 mo
Surgical close (75 ct)	$-170,625

Gross FIGHT income	$5,027/mo
vs 50% target ($7,513/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($15,027/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,040/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$133,442
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	175.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.9 mo
Surgical close (69 ct)	$-156,906

Gross FIGHT income	$7,577/mo
vs 50% target ($7,513/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($15,027/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,626/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$104,881
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	138.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.0 mo
Surgical close (52 ct)	$-118,352

Gross FIGHT income	$15,120/mo
vs 50% target ($7,513/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($15,027/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,126/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$147,740
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	194.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.8 mo
Surgical close (72 ct)	$-163,980

Gross FIGHT income	$7,071/mo
vs 50% target ($15,027/mo)	-53%
vs normal income ($30,054/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,071/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,716
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	26.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (150 ct)	$-75,900

Gross FIGHT income	$9,981/mo
vs 50% target ($15,027/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($30,054/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,009/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,129
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	28.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (137 ct)	$-69,185

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$2,329	$-43,501	+$32,174	+$2,192
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.5σ)	$-3,665	$-42,886	+$32,789	-$3,802
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-9,658	$-42,271	+$33,404	-$9,796
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-172,894	$-35,008	+$40,667	-$73,158

Gross FIGHT income	$15,154/mo
vs 50% target ($15,027/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($30,054/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,253/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$42,131
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	26.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (104 ct)	$-52,728

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,536	$-57,366	+$18,309	+$3,432
+2.5%	$16.91 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-754	$-55,425	+$20,250	-$858
+5%	$17.32 (1.1σ)	$-5,044	$-53,484	+$22,191	-$5,148
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-139,880	$-26,018	+$49,657	-$64,168

Gross FIGHT income	$30,240/mo
vs 50% target ($15,027/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($30,054/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30,253/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$63,375
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	40.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (144 ct)	$-73,224

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,056	$-61,438	+$14,237	+$6,912
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,296	$-61,156	+$14,519	+$1,152
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-4,464	$-60,874	+$14,801	-$4,608
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-198,720	$-55,738	+$19,937	-$93,888

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$180,418
… as % of IC ($94,550)	190.8%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	73.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	18.0 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)	$-196,125

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$168,009
… as % of IC ($94,550)	177.7%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	68.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	16.8 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-180,389

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$130,738
… as % of IC ($94,550)	138.3%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	53.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	13.1 mo
Surgical close (35 ct)	$-137,322

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$180,977
… as % of IC ($94,550)	191.4%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	74.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	18.1 mo
Surgical close (48 ct)	$-188,400

Gross FIGHT income	$1,393/mo
vs 50% target ($2,424/mo)	-43%
vs normal income ($4,848/mo)	29% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,393/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,290
… as % of IC ($9,350)	45.9%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	16.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-8,775

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $15-15.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $15.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$15.50 (1.3σ)	$325	$-3,602	+$5,123	+$275
+2.5%	$15.89 (1.6σ)	$-644	$-3,781	+$4,944	-$694
+5%	$16.28 (1.8σ)	$-1,613	$-3,960	+$4,765	-$1,663
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.3σ)	$-12,775	$-6,025	+$2,700	-$10,975