FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 13 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 4 underwater (not deep DD) | 7 skipped (CSV) | 2 uncapped above water | 21 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $115,280/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $54,839/mo ⚠ 2 negative E[net] ⚡ $5,625/mo of that is earnings-blocked (1 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $1,009,215 locked in if all 13 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				TUNED	RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Tuned	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	20	$76.05	$94.68	20 × $82 $200 cyc · $3,000/mo 95% survhist 100% · T:10%hist 5%	16 × $79 $240 cyc · $3,600/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:39%hist 18%	🎯 15 × $78.50 $375 cyc · $5,625/mo 77% survhist 96% · T:47%hist 28%	11 × $76 $770 cyc · $11,550/mo 50% survhist 79% · T:100%hist 90%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$1,334	-$23,898 (42.1% IC)	24.5%
CRWV ↗⚡ER 14d Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$66.44	$129.74	5 × $74 $295 cyc · $4,425/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%	5 × $77 $140 cyc · $2,100/mo 97% survhist 100% · T:7%hist 1%	🎯 4 × $75 $196 cyc · $2,940/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:13%hist 5%	5 × $72 $475 cyc · $7,125/mo 85% survhist 99% · T:31%hist 18%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$301	-$21,699 (212.2% IC)	95.3%
ENPH ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	10	$37.78	$58.30	10 × $42 $330 cyc · $4,950/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:13%hist 5%	9 × $45 $99 cyc · $1,485/mo 99% survhist 100% · T:1%hist 1%	🎯 7 × $43 $147 cyc · $2,205/mo 97% survhist 100% · T:7%hist 1%	9 × $42 $297 cyc · $4,455/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:13%hist 5%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,164	-$10,566 (144.7% IC)	54.3%
INTC ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$86.89	$117.00	5 × $96 $270 cyc · $4,050/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:12%hist 5%	5 × $100 $110 cyc · $1,650/mo 95% survhist 100% · T:9%hist 1%	🎯 3 × $96 $162 cyc · $2,430/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:12%hist 5%	5 × $95 $340 cyc · $5,100/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:28%hist 13%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,071	-$6,137 (42.3% IC)	34.6%
IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	20	$33.88	$47.78	—	19 × $40.50 $304 cyc · $4,560/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:15%hist 5%	🎯 18 × $39.50 $450 cyc · $6,750/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:21%hist 13%	20 × $38 $900 cyc · $13,500/mo 84% survhist 99% · T:34%hist 18%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$14,452 (45.2% IC)	41.0%
IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	20	$33.88	$47.78	—	19 × $40.50 $304 cyc · $4,560/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:15%hist 5%	🎯 18 × $39.50 $450 cyc · $6,750/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:21%hist 13%	20 × $38 $900 cyc · $13,500/mo 84% survhist 99% · T:34%hist 18%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$14,452 (45.2% IC)	41.0%
MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 9d Main:1299 · This Fri	200	$11.38	$14.80	200 × $159d $1,000 cyc · $3,333/mo 95% survhist 100% · T:10%hist 5%	85 × $12.50 $680 cyc · $10,200/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:29%hist 13%	🎯 129 × $12.50 $1,032 cyc · $15,480/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:29%hist 13%	121 × $12 $2,057 cyc · $30,855/mo 73% survhist 96% · T:55%hist 43%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$28,688 (260.8% IC)	30.0%
MU-LC880 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	5	$839.85	$1,059.41	5 × $940 $1,800 cyc · $27,000/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 5%	5 × $952.50 $1,375 cyc · $20,625/mo 92% survhist 100% · T:15%hist 5%	🎯 5 × $935 $2,025 cyc · $30,375/mo 89% survhist 99% · T:22%hist 13%	5 × $900 $4,275 cyc · $64,125/mo 79% survhist 96% · T:43%hist 28%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$12,776	-$60,178 (81.0% IC)	26.1%
MU-LC970 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	2	$839.85	$1,248.92	2 × $940 $720 cyc · $10,800/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 5%	2 × $952.50 $550 cyc · $8,250/mo 92% survhist 100% · T:15%hist 5%	🎯 2 × $935 $810 cyc · $12,150/mo 89% survhist 99% · T:22%hist 13%	2 × $900 $1,710 cyc · $25,650/mo 79% survhist 96% · T:43%hist 28%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$4,427	-$61,974 (123.9% IC)	48.7%
NEM ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	5	$90.73	$117.56	5 × $100 $125 cyc · $417/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%	4 × $95 $244 cyc · $813/mo 75% survhist 96% · T:52%hist 43%	🎯 4 × $94 $420 cyc · $1,400/mo 70% survhist 80% · T:62%hist 51%	4 × $90 $740 cyc · $2,467/mo 47% surv · T:100%hist 90%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$442	-$9,003 (66.6% IC)	29.6%
QCOM ↗⚡ER TMRW RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	5	$162.10	$228.74	5 × $185 $500 cyc · $7,500/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%	5 × $192.50 $205 cyc · $3,075/mo 99+% survhist 100% · T:1%hist 1%	🎯⚡ 5 × $187.50 $375 cyc · $5,625/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:14%hist 5%	5 × $182.50 $640 cyc · $9,600/mo 89% survhist 99% · T:23%hist 13%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$644	-$20,247 (119.1% IC)	41.1%
RKLB ↗⚡ER 13d RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	6	$62.97	$149.28	6 × $71 $228 cyc · $3,420/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%	6 × $72 $162 cyc · $2,430/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:14%hist 5%	🎯 5 × $70 $240 cyc · $3,600/mo 89% survhist 99% · T:23%hist 13%	6 × $68 $504 cyc · $7,560/mo 82% survhist 99% · T:38%hist 18%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$863	-$39,401 (247.3% IC)	137.1%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗⚡ER 7d Main:1299 · This Fri	125	$20.90	$33.34	125 × $26.509d $2,125 cyc · $7,083/mo 92% survhist 100% · T:16%hist 5%	97 × $23 $873 cyc · $13,095/mo 88% survhist 99% · T:24%hist 13%	🎯 70 × $22.50 $1,330 cyc · $19,950/mo 82% survhist 99% · T:37%hist 18%	88 × $22 $2,640 cyc · $39,600/mo 74% survhist 96% · T:53%hist 43%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$879	-$74,557 (269.9% IC)	59.5%
TOTAL (13)	428	following every 🎯 $8,012 cyc · $115,280/mo		$7,593 cyc · $75,978/mo 11 of 13	$5,286 cyc · $76,443/mo	$8,012 cyc · $115,280/mo	$16,248 cyc · $235,087/mo		$25,902	-$385,254

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$84	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.48/sh	+$952 cycle +$1,152 [-$1,373…+$1,407] · 61% credit	71% surv 62%	-$19,023 NOT cap gain +$16,877
Max even-money escape in the band	~$86	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$380 cycle +$580 [-$2,019…+$809] · 46% credit	74% surv 67%	-$16,787 NOT cap gain +$19,113
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$82	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$225 cycle +$425 [-$1,974…+$601] · 43% credit	65% surv 52%	-$24,337 NOT cap gain +$11,563

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $81.18	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $81-82.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $82.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$82.00 (2.1σ)	$200	$-24,562	+$11,338	-$100
+2.5%	$84.05 (2.9σ)	$-3,900	$-24,824	+$11,076	-$4,200
+5%	$86.10 (3.6σ)	$-8,000	$-25,086	+$10,814	-$8,300
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-22,600	$-26,021	+$9,879	-$16,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (16 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$80	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.07/sh	+$1,712 cycle +$1,952 [-$234…+$1,576] · 72% credit	68% surv 56%	-$26,587 NOT cap gain +$9,313
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$79	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$151 cycle +$391 [-$1,737…-$6] · 25% credit	65% surv 52%	-$29,927 NOT cap gain +$5,973
Max even-money escape in the band	~$83	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$110 cycle +$350 [-$2,015…-$70] · 22% credit	75% surv 68%	-$22,574 NOT cap gain +$13,326
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $78.21	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $78-79.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $79.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$79.00 (1.1σ)	$240	$-30,078	+$5,822	+$0
+2.5%	$80.97 (1.8σ)	$-2,920	$-29,540	+$6,360	-$3,160
+5%	$82.95 (2.5σ)	$-6,080	$-29,003	+$6,897	-$6,320
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-22,800	$-27,521	+$8,379	-$17,600

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$79	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.05/sh	+$1,575 cycle +$1,950 [-$777…+$1,371] · 63% credit	68% surv 56%	-$27,510 NOT cap gain +$8,390
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$78	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$137 cycle +$512 [-$2,175…-$81] · 21% credit	65% surv 52%	-$30,726 NOT cap gain +$5,174
Max even-money escape in the band	~$82	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$74 cycle +$449 [-$2,494…-$177] · 18% credit	75% surv 68%	-$23,396 NOT cap gain +$12,504
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $77.72	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $78-79.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $79.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$78.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$375	$-30,864	+$5,036	+$150
+2.5%	$80.46 (1.6σ)	$-2,569	$-30,134	+$5,766	-$2,794
+5%	$82.42 (2.3σ)	$-5,512	$-29,404	+$6,497	-$5,737
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-21,975	$-27,021	+$8,879	-$17,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$76	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$85 cycle +$855	65% surv 51%	-$34,910 NOT cap gain +$990
Max even-money escape in the band	~$80	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.14/sh	+$150 cycle +$920	75% surv 67%	-$28,387 NOT cap gain +$7,513
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$82	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.60/sh	-$656 cycle +$114	80% surv 76%	-$24,513 NOT cap gain +$11,387
budget: banked $770 debit $656 (85% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$114 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $1,913/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $75.24	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $75-77.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $77.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$76.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$770	$-34,995	+$905	+$605
+2.5%	$77.90 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,320	$-33,622	+$2,278	-$1,485
+5%	$79.80 (1.3σ)	$-3,410	$-32,155	+$3,745	-$3,575
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-18,370	$-24,716	+$11,184	-$14,795

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$83	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.70/sh	+$1,408 cycle +$1,608 [-$569…+$1,843] · 66% credit	70% surv 60%	-$21,375 NOT cap gain +$14,525
Max even-money escape in the band	~$85	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$297 cycle +$497 [-$1,864…+$681] · 46% credit	75% surv 67%	-$18,742 NOT cap gain +$17,158
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$81	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$213 cycle +$413 [-$1,756…+$551] · 44% credit	65% surv 52%	-$26,221 NOT cap gain +$9,679

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $80.19	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $80-81.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $81.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$81.00 (1.8σ)	$200	$-26,434	+$9,466	-$100
+2.5%	$83.02 (2.5σ)	$-3,850	$-26,693	+$9,207	-$4,150
+5%	$85.05 (3.2σ)	$-7,900	$-26,952	+$8,948	-$8,200
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-24,600	$-28,021	+$7,879	-$18,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$80	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.09/sh	+$2,180 cycle +$2,380 [-$388…+$2,036] · 70% credit	68% surv 56%	-$25,283 NOT cap gain +$10,617
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$80	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.10/sh	+$195 cycle +$395 [-$2,377…+$7] · 25% credit	65% surv 52%	-$29,047 NOT cap gain +$6,853
Max even-money escape in the band	~$83	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.09/sh	+$176 cycle +$376 [-$2,667…-$37] · 24% credit	75% surv 68%	-$21,671 NOT cap gain +$14,229
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $78.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $79-79.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $79.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$79.50 (1.2σ)	$200	$-29,242	+$6,658	-$100
+2.5%	$81.49 (1.9σ)	$-3,775	$-29,496	+$6,404	-$4,075
+5%	$83.48 (2.6σ)	$-7,750	$-29,750	+$6,150	-$8,050
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-27,600	$-31,021	+$4,879	-$21,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$79	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.03/sh	+$1,133 cycle +$1,518 [-$686…+$954] · 62% credit	68% surv 56%	-$28,818 NOT cap gain +$7,082
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$78	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$97 cycle +$482 [-$1,671…-$86] · 20% credit	65% surv 52%	-$31,632 NOT cap gain +$4,268
Max even-money escape in the band	~$82	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$33 cycle +$418 [-$1,948…-$179] · 15% credit	75% surv 68%	-$24,302 NOT cap gain +$11,598
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$83	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.28/sh	-$304 cycle +$81 [-$2,389…-$529] · 6% credit	77% surv 72%	-$22,767 NOT cap gain +$13,133
budget: banked $385 debit $304 (79% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$81 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,532/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $77.22	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $77-78.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $78.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$78.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$385	$-31,730	+$4,170	+$220
+2.5%	$79.95 (1.4σ)	$-1,760	$-30,224	+$5,676	-$1,925
+5%	$81.90 (2.1σ)	$-3,905	$-28,719	+$7,181	-$4,070
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-16,555	$-22,901	+$12,999	-$12,980

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$80	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$231 cycle +$591 [-$2,204…-$81] · 22% credit	74% surv 67%	-$26,952 NOT cap gain +$8,948
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$77	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$99 cycle +$459 [-$2,143…-$189] · 15% credit	65% surv 52%	-$33,542 NOT cap gain +$2,358

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $76.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $76-78.22	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $78.22	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$77.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$360	$-33,642	+$2,258	+$180
+2.5%	$78.92 (1.0σ)	$-1,950	$-32,348	+$3,552	-$2,130
+5%	$80.85 (1.7σ)	$-4,260	$-31,054	+$4,846	-$4,440
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-19,320	$-25,341	+$10,559	-$15,420

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$80	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$207 cycle +$567 [-$2,535…-$185] · 17% credit	75% surv 67%	-$27,912 NOT cap gain +$7,988
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$76	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$96 cycle +$456 [-$2,417…-$257] · 12% credit	65% surv 51%	-$34,482 NOT cap gain +$1,418

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $75.73	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $76-77.95	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $77.95	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$76.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$360	$-34,578	+$1,322	+$180
+2.5%	$78.41 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,935	$-33,292	+$2,608	-$2,115
+5%	$80.33 (1.5σ)	$-4,230	$-32,007	+$3,893	-$4,410
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-19,920	$-25,941	+$9,959	-$16,020

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$76	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.07/sh	+$30 cycle +$430	65% surv 51%	-$35,230 NOT cap gain +$670
Max even-money escape in the band	~$78	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$28 cycle +$428	73% surv 65%	-$30,646 NOT cap gain +$5,254
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$83	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.93/sh	-$373 cycle +$27	84% surv 81%	-$22,623 NOT cap gain +$13,277
budget: banked $400 debit $373 (93% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$27 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $500/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $74.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $75-77.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $77.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 21 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 1 watch · 1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)

$325.43

$331.10

$9.25

$8.82

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

APP

RetireInc:7291

1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)

$418.00

$441.92

$3.50

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MARA-LC20-1299

Main:1299

200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)

$11.38

$16.07

$0.01

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)

$168.19

$181.89

$3.53

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)

$114.53

$126.30

$1.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC45

Neville:0865

20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)

$33.79

$41.13

$0.23

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC50

RetireInc:7291

20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)

$33.79

$41.08

$0.23

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)

$333.02

$352.35

$1.85

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)

$333.02

$352.31

$1.85

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)

$195.68

$211.74

$1.14

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $637.5C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)

$590.04

$654.07

$10.97

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)

$168.19

$187.68

$4.30

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC10

RetireInc:7291

50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)

$17.46

$20.75

$0.25

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (16d)

$97.00

$113.05

$2.30

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (16d)

$97.00

$113.08

$2.30

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC145

RetireInc:7291

3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (16d)

$168.19

$198.70

$3.85

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UAMY

RetireInc:7291

25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (16d)

$5.16

$7.35

$0.10

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (23d)

$368.16

$396.32

$1.95

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (23d)

$392.77

$505.00

$9.50

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (51d)

$110.41

$124.07

$6.10

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (51d)

$333.02

$374.80

$4.33

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress

Acct

Price

CC-SS

↑ whole

Sell strike

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income @ strike

Normal income

Action

CLSK ↗ BORDERLINE 22%⚡ER 9d

RetireInc:7291

$13.21

$17.33

31.1%

$17 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · 99% survhist 100% $0.33 BELOW FLOOR LAST CLEAN

2%hist 1%

$25

$375/mo (9%)

$4,289/mo

sell 25x $17 CC SIM ▾

SPY ↗

Neville:0865

$739.58

$695.58

0.0%

$749 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · 81% survhist 99%

37%hist 18%

$1,680

$25,200/mo (102%)

$24,789/mo

sell 12x $749 CC SIM ▾

AMZN ↗⚡ER 2d

Joint:1782

$228.97

$242.30

5.8%

$245 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · 81% survhist 99% ⚡ CROSSES EARNINGS

39%hist 18%

$2,690

$40,350/mo (213%)

$18,964/mo

sell 10x $245 CC SIM ▾

IGV ↗

Main:1299

$92.33

$86.64

0.0%

$95 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · 81% survhist 99%

39%hist 18%

$360

$5,400/mo (96%)

$5,625/mo

sell 12x $95 CC SIM ▾

UNCAPPED, ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner)

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Headroom
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$28.85	$17.47	+65.1%
MU-LC670	Joint:1782	1	$835.46	$792.36	+5.4%

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 7 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$17.46	$39.13	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$17.46	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$17.46	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 60.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.38	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 17.0% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$36.39	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$11.38	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 53.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$11.38	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.9% below BE SS

CAPPED: 21 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.13	50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (16d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (23d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (23d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (9d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (51d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$22.69	200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (2d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)]
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $638C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (16d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (16d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (51d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (9d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (2d)
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.45	25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (16d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 1418 of 1828 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	130	55%	72%	+16pp
60-70%	196	64%	72%	+8pp
70-80%	259	76%	96%	+20pp
80-90%	305	84%	96%	+12pp
90-100%	528	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 28% touch rate over 1418 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 109 real buyback(s) recorded · 42 roll(s), net +$1.08/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 42 real rolls: buyback $4.25/sh, replacement credit financed 126% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.08/sh (28 of 42 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-07-29 21:41

Gross FIGHT income	$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	-43%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	29% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,000/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,164
… as % of IC ($56,800)	44.3%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	25.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-36,700

Gross FIGHT income	$3,600/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,712/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,852
… as % of IC ($56,800)	43.8%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	24.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (16 ct)	$-29,480

Gross FIGHT income	$5,625/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,766/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,898
… as % of IC ($56,800)	42.1%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	23.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)	$-27,488

Gross FIGHT income	$11,550/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	+120%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	110% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,803/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$19,780
… as % of IC ($56,800)	34.8%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	19.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$-20,845

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,164
… as % of IC ($56,800)	47.8%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	26.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-36,650

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,164
… as % of IC ($56,800)	53.1%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	29.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-36,650

Gross FIGHT income	$5,775/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	+10%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,028/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$17,965
… as % of IC ($56,800)	31.6%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$-20,130

Gross FIGHT income	$5,400/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,625/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,859
… as % of IC ($56,800)	36.7%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	20.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$-22,650

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,459
… as % of IC ($56,800)	37.8%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	21.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$-22,920

Gross FIGHT income	$6,000/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	+14%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	57% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,450/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,273
… as % of IC ($56,800)	12.8%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	7.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-7,580

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$75.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$400	$-35,260	+$640	+$340
+2.5%	$77.39 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-355	$-33,511	+$2,389	-$415
+5%	$79.28 (1.1σ)	$-1,110	$-30,733	+$5,167	-$1,170
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-6,760	$-15,381	+$20,519	-$5,460

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$75	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.07/sh	+$29 cycle +$429	65% surv 51%	-$35,231 NOT cap gain +$669
Max even-money escape in the band	~$78	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.12/sh	+$48 cycle +$448	73% surv 66%	-$31,562 NOT cap gain +$4,338
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$82	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.82/sh	-$327 cycle +$73	83% surv 80%	-$24,449 NOT cap gain +$11,451
budget: banked $400 debit $327 (82% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$73 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $550/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,473
… as % of IC ($56,800)	13.2%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	7.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-7,660

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $74.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $74-77.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $77.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$75.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$400	$-35,260	+$640	+$340
+2.5%	$76.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-350	$-34,466	+$1,434	-$410
+5%	$78.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,100	$-31,706	+$4,194	-$1,160
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (6.2σ)	$-6,960	$-15,581	+$20,319	-$5,660

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$74	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$2.13/sh	+$1,067 cycle +$1,362 [+$541…+$1,097] · 89% credit	68% surv 53%	-$27,299 NOT cap gain +$5,168
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$87	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.26/sh	+$630 cycle +$925 [-$240…+$610] · 66% credit	81% surv 76%	-$21,412 NOT cap gain +$11,056
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$80	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$43 cycle +$338 [-$738…+$6] · 26% credit	77% surv 71%	-$25,524 NOT cap gain +$6,944
Max even-money escape in the band	~$94	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.00/sh	+$2 cycle +$297 [-$998…-$39] · 21% credit	86% surv 84%	-$18,516 NOT cap gain +$13,952
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$95	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.22/sh	-$110 cycle +$185 [-$1,134…-$153] · 15% credit	87% surv 86%	-$17,872 NOT cap gain +$14,596
budget: banked $295 debit $110 (37% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$185 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,484/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$4,425/mo
vs 50% target ($2,864/mo)	+55%
vs normal income ($5,728/mo)	77% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,049/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,573
… as % of IC ($10,225)	269.7%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	54.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-32,498

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $73.26	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $73-74.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $74.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$74.00 (1.4σ)	$295	$-28,366	+$4,101	+$275
+2.5%	$75.85 (1.7σ)	$-630	$-28,360	+$4,108	-$650
+5%	$77.70 (2.1σ)	$-1,555	$-28,353	+$4,114	-$1,575
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (10.9σ)	$-25,430	$-28,186	+$4,282	-$25,225

Gross FIGHT income	$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($2,864/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($5,728/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,724/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,228
… as % of IC ($10,225)	256.5%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	52.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-32,490

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$77.00 (1.9σ)	$140	$-27,011	+$5,457	+$120
+2.5%	$78.92 (2.3σ)	$-822	$-27,004	+$5,464	-$842
+5%	$80.85 (2.6σ)	$-1,785	$-26,997	+$5,470	-$1,805
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (10.9σ)	$-24,085	$-26,841	+$5,627	-$23,880

Gross FIGHT income	$2,940/mo
vs 50% target ($2,864/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($5,728/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,571/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,699
… as % of IC ($10,225)	212.2%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	43.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.8 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-25,986

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$75.00 (1.6σ)	$196	$-27,958	+$4,510	+$180
+2.5%	$76.88 (1.9σ)	$-554	$-27,763	+$4,704	-$570
+5%	$78.75 (2.3σ)	$-1,304	$-27,569	+$4,898	-$1,320
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (10.9σ)	$-19,984	$-22,781	+$9,687	-$19,820

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$72	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$2.13/sh	+$1,063 cycle +$1,538 [+$473…+$1,049] · 88% credit	68% surv 53%	-$28,130 NOT cap gain +$4,337
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$85	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.22/sh	+$612 cycle +$1,087 [-$351…+$563] · 62% credit	81% surv 77%	-$22,257 NOT cap gain +$10,210
Max even-money escape in the band	~$91	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$86 cycle +$561 [-$996…+$21] · 28% credit	86% surv 84%	-$19,762 NOT cap gain +$12,706
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$78	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$43 cycle +$518 [-$830…-$13] · 22% credit	77% surv 71%	-$26,350 NOT cap gain +$6,117
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$98	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.92/sh	-$461 cycle +$14 [-$1,683…-$545]	91% surv 90%	-$16,533 NOT cap gain +$15,934
budget: banked $475 debit $461 (97% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $960/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$7,125/mo
vs 50% target ($2,864/mo)	+149%
vs normal income ($5,728/mo)	124% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,749/mo