FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $76,310/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $32,584/mo · plus $28,809/mo CC-safe on 5 shallow row(s) ⓘ ⚠ 1 negative E[net] ⚡ $26,360/mo of that is earnings-blocked (3 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $455,261 locked in if all 16 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| APP ↗⚡ER TMRW RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 1 | $422.29 | $605.84 | 1 × $610 21 Aug (17d)⚡ $110 cyc · $194/mo 98% survhist 99% · T:5%hist 1% | 1 × $510 7 Aug (3d) $235 cyc · $2,350/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:16%hist 6% | 1 × $515 7 Aug (3d) $195 cyc · $1,950/mo 93% survhist 99% · T:14%hist 6% | 🎯⚡ 1 × $500 7 Aug (3d) $330 cyc · $3,300/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:21%hist 18% | 1 × $475 7 Aug (3d) $670 cyc · $6,700/mo 82% survhist 95% · T:38%hist 22% | $2,111 | -$10,254 (80.1% IC) | 43.5% |
| COIN-LC145 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 3 | $150.43 | $190.34 | 3 × $192.50 28 Aug (24d) $435 cyc · $544/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6% | 3 × $177.50 14 Aug (10d)alt tenor $351 cyc · $1,053/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 6% | 3 × $170 7 Aug (3d) $201 cyc · $2,010/mo 93% survhist 99% · T:15%hist 6% | 🎯 3 × $167.50 7 Aug (3d) $261 cyc · $2,610/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% | 3 × $160 7 Aug (3d) $648 cyc · $6,480/mo 78% survhist 92% · T:44%hist 32% | $1,491 | -$6,590 (110.9% IC) | 26.5% |
| CRWV ↗⚡ER 7d Neville:0865 · This Fri | 5 | $88.82 | $129.09 | 5 × $125 7 Aug (3d) $5 cyc · $50/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:0%hist 1% | 5 × $103 7 Aug (3d) $395 cyc · $3,950/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6% | 5 × $105 7 Aug (3d) $290 cyc · $2,900/mo 94% survhist 99% · T:13%hist 6% | 🎯 5 × $102 7 Aug (3d) $455 cyc · $4,550/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:21%hist 18% | 5 × $97 7 Aug (3d) $915 cyc · $9,150/mo 80% survhist 92% · T:42%hist 32% | $301 | -$13,088 (128.0% IC) | 45.3% |
| IREN-LC45 ↗⚡ER 23d Neville:0865 · This Fri | 20 | $41.02 | $59.15 | 20 × $60 21 Aug (17d) $980 cyc · $1,729/mo 94% survhist 99% · T:13%hist 6% | 20 × $48 7 Aug (3d) $760 cyc · $7,600/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% | 15 × $48 7 Aug (3d) $570 cyc · $5,700/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% | 🎯 16 × $47 7 Aug (3d) $848 cyc · $8,480/mo 87% survhist 95% · T:27%hist 18% | 17 × $45 7 Aug (3d) $1,649 cyc · $16,490/mo 78% survhist 92% · T:45%hist 32% | $2,054 | -$18,599 (310.0% IC) | 44.2% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗⚡ER 23d RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 20 | $41.02 | $67.93 | 20 × $70 21 Aug (17d) $300 cyc · $529/mo 98% survhist 99% · T:4%hist 1% | 20 × $48 7 Aug (3d) $760 cyc · $7,600/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% | 15 × $48 7 Aug (3d) $570 cyc · $5,700/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% | 🎯 16 × $47 7 Aug (3d) $848 cyc · $8,480/mo 87% survhist 95% · T:27%hist 18% | 17 × $45 7 Aug (3d) $1,649 cyc · $16,490/mo 78% survhist 92% · T:45%hist 32% | $853 | -$32,648 (238.3% IC) | 65.6% |
| RKLB ↗⚡ER 6d RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 6 | $74.40 | $149.14 | 6 × $150 21 Aug (17d)⚡ $12 cyc · $21/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:0%hist 1% | 6 × $86 7 Aug (3d) $312 cyc · $3,120/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6% | 5 × $86 7 Aug (3d) $260 cyc · $2,600/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6% | 🎯 6 × $85 7 Aug (3d) $408 cyc · $4,080/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:21%hist 18% | 6 × $81 7 Aug (3d) $798 cyc · $7,980/mo 80% survhist 92% · T:42%hist 32% | $1,314 | -$38,077 (239.0% IC) | 100.5% |
| SPCX ↗⚡ER TODAY Neville:0865 · This Fri | 5 | $118.62 | $183.45 | 5 × $185 7 Aug (3d)⚡ $505 cyc · $5,050/mo 97% survhist 99% · T:7%hist 1% | 5 × $138 7 Aug (3d) $2,325 cyc · $23,250/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6% | 4 × $177.50 7 Aug (3d) $464 cyc · $4,640/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:0%hist 1% | 🎯⚡ 5 × $170 7 Aug (3d) $725 cyc · $7,250/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:0%hist 1% | 3 × $138 7 Aug (3d) $1,395 cyc · $13,950/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6% | $1,593 | -$5,998 (44.4% IC) | 54.7% |
| SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock | |||||||||||
| CLSK ↗⚡ER 2d RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 25 | $14.41 | $16.84 | 🎯⚡ 25 × $17 21 Aug (17d)⚡ $1,325 cyc · $2,338/mo 82% survhist 95% · T:37%hist 22% above floor +$403 · hole 2.6mo | 25 × $18.50 14 Aug (10d)alt tenor $275 cyc · $825/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:16%hist 6% above floor +$4,153 · hole 7.4mo | 25 × $17 7 Aug (3d) $200 cyc · $2,000/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6% above floor +$403 · hole 3.0mo | 16 × $16.50 7 Aug (3d) $304 cyc · $3,040/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:28%hist 18% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 2.0mo | 19 × $16 7 Aug (3d) $608 cyc · $6,080/mo 80% survhist 95% · T:41%hist 32% locks −$986 · hole 1.0mo | - | +$403 whole if assigned | 16.9% whole ~21 Oct on 🎯 |
| IREN-LC25-1299 ↗⚡ER 23d Main:1299 · This Fri | 20 | $41.02 | $49.14 | 🎯 20 × $50 21 Aug (17d) $3,440 cyc · $6,071/mo 81% survhist 95% · T:41%hist 32% above floor +$1,712 · hole 2.7mo | 20 × $48 7 Aug (3d) $760 cyc · $7,600/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 2.1mo | 15 × $48 7 Aug (3d) $570 cyc · $5,700/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 2.9mo | 16 × $47 7 Aug (3d) $848 cyc · $8,480/mo 87% survhist 95% · T:27%hist 18% locks −$2,582 · hole 1.9mo | 17 × $45 7 Aug (3d) $1,649 cyc · $16,490/mo 78% survhist 92% · T:45%hist 32% locks −$5,396 · hole 1.0mo | - | +$1,712 whole if assigned | 19.8% whole ~24 Oct on 🎯 |
| IREN-LC25-1782 ↗⚡ER 23d Joint:1782 · This Fri | 20 | $41.02 | $49.14 | 🎯 20 × $50 21 Aug (17d) $3,440 cyc · $6,071/mo 81% survhist 95% · T:41%hist 32% above floor +$1,712 · hole 2.7mo | 20 × $48 7 Aug (3d) $760 cyc · $7,600/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 2.1mo | 15 × $48 7 Aug (3d) $570 cyc · $5,700/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 2.9mo | 16 × $47 7 Aug (3d) $848 cyc · $8,480/mo 87% survhist 95% · T:27%hist 18% locks −$2,582 · hole 1.9mo | 17 × $45 7 Aug (3d) $1,649 cyc · $16,490/mo 78% survhist 92% · T:45%hist 32% locks −$5,396 · hole 1.0mo | - | +$1,712 whole if assigned | 19.8% whole ~24 Oct on 🎯 |
| MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 2d BORDERLINE 22% Main:1299 · This Fri | 200 | $11.73 | $15.04 | 🎯⚡ 200 × $16 21 Aug (17d)⚡ $2,000 cyc · $3,529/mo 93% survhist 99% · T:14%hist 6% above floor +$19,219 · hole 18.8mo | 200 × $14 7 Aug (3d) $1,400 cyc · $14,000/mo 97% survhist 99% · T:7%hist 1% locks −$19,381 · hole 4.7mo | 159 × $14 7 Aug (3d) $1,113 cyc · $11,130/mo 97% survhist 99% · T:7%hist 1% locks −$15,408 · hole 5.9mo | 140 × $13.50 7 Aug (3d) $1,680 cyc · $16,800/mo 89% survhist 95% · T:24%hist 18% locks −$19,867 · hole 3.9mo | 177 × $13 7 Aug (3d) $3,363 cyc · $33,630/mo 82% survhist 95% · T:38%hist 22% locks −$32,729 · hole 2.0mo | $714 | +$19,219 whole if assigned | 28.2% whole ~18 Feb on 🎯 |
| SPY ↗ ⚐ Neville:0865 · This Fri | 12 | $761.74 | $696.18 | 🎯 12 × $769 7 Aug (3d) $1,080 cyc · $10,800/mo 82% survhist 95% · T:35%hist 22% above floor +$87,381 | 12 × $780 14 Aug (10d)alt tenor $792 cyc · $2,376/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6% above floor +$100,581 | 12 × $772 7 Aug (3d) $552 cyc · $5,520/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6% above floor +$90,981 | 12 × $770 7 Aug (3d) $876 cyc · $8,760/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:29%hist 18% above floor +$88,581 | 12 × $767 7 Aug (3d) $1,656 cyc · $16,560/mo 75% survhist 92% · T:50%hist 32% above floor +$84,981 | $3,323 | +$87,381 whole if assigned | 0.0% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| HIMS Main:1299 | 15 | $31.24 | $17.47 BE | +78.8% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $150.43 | $339.46 | — | 25 × $177.50 14 Aug (10d)alt tenor $2,925 cyc · $8,775/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 6% | 22 × $170 7 Aug (3d) $1,474 cyc · $14,740/mo 93% survhist 99% · T:15%hist 6% | 🎯 25 × $167.50 7 Aug (3d) $2,175 cyc · $21,750/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18% | 20 × $160 7 Aug (3d) $4,320 cyc · $43,200/mo 78% survhist 92% · T:44%hist 32% | $6,995 | -$427,731 (271.6% IC) | 125.7% |
| GLXY ↗⚡ER TMRW Main:1299 · This Fri | 125 | $22.34 | $34.04 | 125 × $40 21 Aug (17d)⚡ $375 cyc · $662/mo 99% survhist 99% · T:2%hist 1% | 125 × $26 7 Aug (3d) $1,375 cyc · $13,750/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:16%hist 6% | 105 × $27 7 Aug (3d) $1,050 cyc · $10,500/mo 96% survhist 99% · T:8%hist 1% | 🎯⚡ 93 × $25.50 7 Aug (3d) $1,581 cyc · $15,810/mo 89% survhist 95% · T:22%hist 18% | 58 × $24.50 7 Aug (3d) $3,190 cyc · $31,900/mo 81% survhist 95% · T:39%hist 22% | $879 | -$77,813 (281.7% IC) | 52.4% |
| TOTAL (14) | 487 | following every 🎯 $18,916 cyc · $105,119/mo | $14,007 cyc · $37,588/mo 13 of 14 | $13,425 cyc · $103,849/mo | $8,079 cyc · $80,790/mo | $12,187 cyc · $121,870/mo | $24,159 cyc · $241,590/mo | $21,627 | -$630,797 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$610 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$5.94/sh | -$594 cycle -$484 [-$426…+$448] · 52% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$467 SAFE cap gain +$19,882 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $194/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,912/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($5,824/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $141/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-19,520 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $603.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $604-612.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $612.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $610.00 (1.9σ) | $110 | $1,062 | +$20,477 | +$2,090 |
| +2.5% | $625.25 (2.1σ) | $-1,415 | $1,191 | +$20,606 | +$2,090 |
| +5% | $640.50 (2.3σ) | $-2,940 | $1,321 | +$20,736 | +$2,090 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$510 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$5.16/sh | +$516 cycle +$751 [+$192…+$861] · 85% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$9,148 NOT cap gain +$10,267 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$533 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$5.18/sh | +$518 cycle +$753 [-$115…+$869] · 72% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$6,681 NOT cap gain +$12,734 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$518 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$1.86/sh | +$186 cycle +$421 [-$231…+$506] · 64% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$8,641 NOT cap gain +$10,774 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$548 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.20/sh | +$20 cycle +$255 [-$764…+$317] · 47% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$5,552 NOT cap gain +$13,863 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,350/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,912/mo) | -19% |
| vs normal income ($5,824/mo) | 40% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,297/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,349 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 73.0% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 19.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-19,503 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $504.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $505-513.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $513.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $510.00 (2.2σ) | $235 | $-9,663 | +$9,752 | +$215 |
| +2.5% | $522.75 (2.5σ) | $-1,040 | $-9,555 | +$9,860 | -$1,060 |
| +5% | $535.50 (2.8σ) | $-2,315 | $-9,447 | +$9,968 | -$2,335 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (4.1σ) | $-7,565 | $-9,000 | +$10,415 | -$7,585 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$515 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$5.07/sh | +$507 cycle +$702 [+$176…+$902] · 83% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$8,654 NOT cap gain +$10,761 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$523 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$1.77/sh | +$177 cycle +$372 [-$237…+$517] · 62% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$8,148 NOT cap gain +$11,267 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$543 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$3.00/sh | +$300 cycle +$495 [-$346…+$671] · 60% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$5,855 NOT cap gain +$13,560 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$553 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.10/sh | +$10 cycle +$205 [-$686…+$363] · 48% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$5,060 NOT cap gain +$14,355 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,912/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($5,824/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,897/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,889 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 69.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 18.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-19,458 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $509.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $510-517.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $517.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $515.00 (2.3σ) | $195 | $-9,161 | +$10,254 | +$175 |
| +2.5% | $527.88 (2.6σ) | $-1,092 | $-9,052 | +$10,363 | -$1,112 |
| +5% | $540.75 (2.9σ) | $-2,380 | $-8,942 | +$10,473 | -$2,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (4.1σ) | $-7,105 | $-8,540 | +$10,875 | -$7,125 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$500 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$5.33/sh | +$533 cycle +$863 [+$113…+$832] · 79% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$10,121 NOT cap gain +$9,294 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$523 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$5.36/sh | +$536 cycle +$866 [-$126…+$814] · 68% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$7,653 NOT cap gain +$11,762 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$513 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$10 cycle +$340 [-$535…+$257] · 46% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$9,265 NOT cap gain +$10,150 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$538 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.41/sh | +$41 cycle +$371 [-$790…+$276] · 41% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$6,521 NOT cap gain +$12,894 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,912/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($5,824/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,247/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,254 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 80.1% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 21.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-19,475 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $495.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $495-503.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $503.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $500.00 (1.9σ) | $330 | $-10,653 | +$8,762 | +$310 |
| +2.5% | $512.50 (2.2σ) | $-920 | $-10,547 | +$8,868 | -$940 |
| +5% | $525.00 (2.5σ) | $-2,170 | $-10,441 | +$8,974 | -$2,190 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (4.1σ) | $-8,470 | $-9,905 | +$9,510 | -$8,490 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$475 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$5.70/sh | +$570 cycle +$1,240 [+$100…+$824] · 81% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$12,456 NOT cap gain +$6,959 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$498 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$5.74/sh | +$574 cycle +$1,244 [-$162…+$788] · 67% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$9,987 NOT cap gain +$9,428 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$488 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.50/sh | +$50 cycle +$720 [-$561…+$245] · 39% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$11,597 NOT cap gain +$7,818 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$513 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.84/sh | +$84 cycle +$754 [-$800…+$258] · 36% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$8,850 NOT cap gain +$10,565 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,912/mo) | +130% |
| vs normal income ($5,824/mo) | 115% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,647/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,414 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 97.0% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 25.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-19,600 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $470.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $470-483.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $483.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $475.00 (1.3σ) | $670 | $-13,026 | +$6,389 | +$650 |
| +2.5% | $486.87 (1.6σ) | $-517 | $-12,925 | +$6,490 | -$537 |
| +5% | $498.75 (1.9σ) | $-1,705 | $-12,824 | +$6,591 | -$1,725 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (4.1σ) | $-10,630 | $-12,065 | +$7,350 | -$10,650 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.27/sh | -$683 cycle +$642 [-$1,392…-$634] · 10% credit | 65% surv 55% | +$1,031 SAFE cap gain +$6,068 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$18 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.48/sh | -$1,192 cycle +$133 [-$1,981…-$1,200] · 4% credit | 69% surv 60% | +$1,758 SAFE cap gain +$6,795 |
| budget: banked $1,325 debit $1,192 (90% used ≈ 2.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $4,456/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,338/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,022/mo) | -23% |
| vs normal income ($6,044/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,338/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-5,137 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,325 | $1,714 | +$6,751 | +$1,200 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (≤1σ, normal week) | $263 | $1,541 | +$6,579 | +$138 |
| +5% | $17.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-800 | $1,369 | +$6,407 | -$925 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (1.8σ) | $-8,025 | $199 | +$5,236 | -$8,150 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 21 Aug 2026 | 12d left | -$0.01/sh | -$35 cycle +$240 [-$624…+$769] · 50% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$3,771 SAFE cap gain +$8,808 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,022/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($6,044/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $825/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-5,175 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.66 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.66 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.5σ) | $275 | $3,806 | +$8,844 | +$150 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (1.7σ) | $-881 | $3,619 | +$8,656 | -$1,006 |
| +5% | $19.43 (1.8σ) | $-2,038 | $3,431 | +$8,469 | -$2,163 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (2.3σ) | $-5,325 | $2,899 | +$7,936 | -$5,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.36/sh | +$903 cycle +$1,103 [+$540…+$1,265] · 92% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$1,492 SAFE cap gain +$6,529 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.16/sh | +$390 cycle +$590 [-$48…+$689] · 72% credit | 73% surv 61% | +$2,215 SAFE cap gain +$7,252 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.17/sh | +$420 cycle +$620 [-$206…+$739] · 68% credit | 76% surv 68% | +$4,340 SAFE cap gain +$9,378 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.07/sh | -$166 cycle +$34 [-$649…+$157] · 41% credit | 83% surv 78% | +$5,848 SAFE cap gain +$10,886 |
| budget: banked $200 debit $166 (83% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,932/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,022/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($6,044/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-5,137 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (1.7σ) | $200 | $589 | +$5,626 | +$75 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (2.0σ) | $-862 | $416 | +$5,454 | -$987 |
| +5% | $17.85 (2.3σ) | $-1,925 | $244 | +$5,282 | -$2,050 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.2σ) | $-9,150 | $-926 | +$4,111 | -$9,275 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.34/sh | +$549 cycle +$853 [+$262…+$703] · 89% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$239 SAFE cap gain +$5,276 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.28/sh | +$452 cycle +$756 [+$27…+$584] · 76% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$2,425 SAFE cap gain +$7,463 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$217 cycle +$521 [-$125…+$345] · 61% credit | 73% surv 61% | +$1,144 SAFE cap gain +$6,181 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.14/sh | +$219 cycle +$523 [-$259…+$335] · 55% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$3,240 SAFE cap gain +$8,277 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.11/sh | -$174 cycle +$130 [-$564…-$47] · 19% credit | 84% surv 79% | +$4,942 SAFE cap gain +$9,980 |
| budget: banked $304 debit $174 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$130 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $2,282/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,040/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,022/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($6,044/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,119/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$238 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 2.5% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 0.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-3,272 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (1.4σ) | $304 | $-310 | +$4,728 | +$224 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (1.7σ) | $-356 | $-106 | +$4,932 | -$436 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.9σ) | $-1,016 | $98 | +$5,136 | -$1,096 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.2σ) | $-6,480 | $1,789 | +$6,826 | -$6,560 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.33/sh | +$618 cycle +$1,226 [+$248…+$779] · 87% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$451 NOT cap gain +$4,587 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.25/sh | +$476 cycle +$1,084 [-$88…+$596] · 71% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$1,691 SAFE cap gain +$6,728 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.12/sh | +$221 cycle +$829 [-$228…+$343] · 52% credit | 73% surv 62% | +$389 SAFE cap gain +$5,426 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.11/sh | +$202 cycle +$810 [-$428…+$301] · 41% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$2,464 SAFE cap gain +$7,502 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.15/sh | -$281 cycle +$327 [-$813…-$171] · 8% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$4,077 SAFE cap gain +$9,114 |
| budget: banked $608 debit $281 (46% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$327 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,444/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,080/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,022/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($6,044/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,133/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$986 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 10.5% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 3.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-3,857 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (1.1σ) | $608 | $-1,068 | +$3,969 | +$513 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (1.3σ) | $-152 | $-990 | +$4,047 | -$247 |
| +5% | $16.80 (1.6σ) | $-912 | $-912 | +$4,125 | -$1,007 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.2σ) | $-8,398 | $-144 | +$4,893 | -$8,493 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $544/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,561/mo) | -79% |
| vs normal income ($5,122/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $440/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,940) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($43,440) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-13,491 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 13d left | 3-12d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $190.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $191-194.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $194.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $192.50 (1.5σ) | $435 | $1,608 | +$15,014 | +$3,189 |
| +2.5% | $197.31 (1.6σ) | $-1,009 | $1,832 | +$15,238 | +$3,189 |
| +5% | $202.12 (1.8σ) | $-2,452 | $2,056 | +$15,462 | +$3,189 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$2.75/sh | +$826 cycle +$1,177 [+$718…+$1,257] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$2,847 NOT cap gain +$10,558 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$182 | 21 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.69/sh | +$207 cycle +$558 [+$27…+$550] · 77% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$1,881 NOT cap gain +$11,525 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$187 | 28 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.70/sh | +$210 cycle +$561 [-$76…+$636] · 69% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$145 NOT cap gain +$13,260 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$192 | 28 Aug 2026 | 19d left | -$1.05/sh | -$314 cycle +$37 [-$688…+$38] · 29% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$1,063 SAFE cap gain +$14,468 |
| budget: banked $351 debit $314 (90% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$37 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,383/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,053/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,561/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($5,122/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $949/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,500 |
| … as % of IC ($5,940) | 58.9% |
| … as % of ML ($43,440) | 8.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-13,446 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $175.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $176-178.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $178.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $177.50 (1.5σ) | $351 | $-3,673 | +$9,732 | +$105 |
| +2.5% | $181.94 (1.7σ) | $-980 | $-3,467 | +$9,939 | -$1,226 |
| +5% | $186.38 (1.9σ) | $-2,312 | $-3,260 | +$10,145 | -$1,395 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.60/sh | +$1,081 cycle +$1,282 [+$980…+$1,425] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$5,341 NOT cap gain +$8,064 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$190 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.84/sh | +$252 cycle +$453 [-$257…+$580] · 65% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$613 SAFE cap gain +$14,018 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$192 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.25/sh | +$74 cycle +$275 [-$460…+$395] · 54% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$1,301 SAFE cap gain +$14,707 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$180 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$11 cycle +$212 [-$364…+$256] · 52% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$3,093 NOT cap gain +$10,312 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$195 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.29/sh | -$87 cycle +$114 [-$664…+$225] · 41% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$2,007 SAFE cap gain +$15,412 |
| budget: banked $201 debit $87 (43% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$114 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,001/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,010/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,561/mo) | -22% |
| vs normal income ($5,122/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,906/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,900 |
| … as % of IC ($5,940) | 99.3% |
| … as % of ML ($43,440) | 13.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-13,419 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $168.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $168-170.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $170.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $170.00 (1.9σ) | $201 | $-6,422 | +$6,984 | -$45 |
| +2.5% | $174.25 (2.3σ) | $-1,074 | $-6,224 | +$7,181 | -$1,320 |
| +5% | $178.50 (2.7σ) | $-2,349 | $-6,027 | +$7,379 | -$2,595 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $182.40 (3.1σ) | $-3,519 | $-5,845 | +$7,560 | -$3,765 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$168 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.50/sh | +$1,051 cycle +$1,312 [+$873…+$1,291] · 98% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$6,177 NOT cap gain +$7,229 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$185 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.23/sh | +$370 cycle +$631 [-$178…+$564] · 68% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$941 NOT cap gain +$12,464 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$175 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.49/sh | +$148 cycle +$409 [-$263…+$314] · 54% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$4,628 NOT cap gain +$8,777 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$190 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.11/sh | +$32 cycle +$293 [-$579…+$216] · 45% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$453 SAFE cap gain +$13,858 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$195 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.82/sh | -$247 cycle +$14 [-$939…-$77] · 17% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$1,907 SAFE cap gain +$15,312 |
| budget: banked $261 debit $247 (94% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $1,733/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,610/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,561/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($5,122/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,506/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,590 |
| … as % of IC ($5,940) | 110.9% |
| … as % of ML ($43,440) | 15.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-13,425 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $165.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $166-168.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $168.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $167.50 (1.7σ) | $261 | $-7,228 | +$6,177 | +$15 |
| +2.5% | $171.69 (2.1σ) | $-995 | $-7,033 | +$6,372 | -$1,241 |
| +5% | $175.88 (2.5σ) | $-2,252 | $-6,839 | +$6,567 | -$2,498 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $182.40 (3.1σ) | $-4,209 | $-6,535 | +$6,870 | -$4,455 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$160 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.22/sh | +$967 cycle +$1,615 [+$667…+$1,102] · 98% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$8,473 NOT cap gain +$4,932 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$172 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$2.32/sh | +$695 cycle +$1,343 [+$78…+$753] · 78% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$4,561 NOT cap gain +$8,845 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$167 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.25/sh | +$74 cycle +$722 [-$463…+$92] · 30% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$6,914 NOT cap gain +$6,491 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$180 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.28/sh | +$83 cycle +$731 [-$685…+$68] · 29% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$2,574 NOT cap gain +$10,831 |
| SS $182 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$195 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$2.13/sh | -$638 cycle +$10 [-$1,627…-$730] | 88% surv 87% | +$1,903 SAFE cap gain +$15,308 |
| budget: banked $648 debit $638 (98% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$10 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $1,055/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,561/mo) | +153% |
| vs normal income ($5,122/mo) | 127% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,376/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,453 |
| … as % of IC ($5,940) | 142.3% |
| … as % of ML ($43,440) | 19.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-13,423 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $158.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $158-162.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $162.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $160.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $648 | $-9,440 | +$3,966 | +$402 |
| +2.5% | $164.00 (1.3σ) | $-552 | $-9,254 | +$4,152 | -$798 |
| +5% | $168.00 (1.7σ) | $-1,752 | $-9,068 | +$4,338 | -$1,998 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $182.40 (3.1σ) | $-6,072 | $-8,398 | +$5,007 | -$6,318 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$2.75/sh | +$6,880 cycle +$9,805 [+$6,032…+$11,006] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$170,538 NOT cap gain +$26,524 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$182 | 21 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.69/sh | +$1,723 cycle +$4,648 [+$291…+$5,401] · 78% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$172,870 NOT cap gain +$24,192 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$187 | 28 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.70/sh | +$1,749 cycle +$4,674 [-$459…+$6,385] · 71% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$169,757 NOT cap gain +$27,306 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$192 | 28 Aug 2026 | 19d left | -$1.05/sh | -$2,619 cycle +$306 [-$5,566…+$1,922] · 35% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$171,038 NOT cap gain +$26,024 |
| budget: banked $2,925 debit $2,619 (90% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$306 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $28,189/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,775/mo |
| vs 50% target ($21,342/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($42,684/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,775/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$401,981 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 255.2% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 172.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.4 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-197,400 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $175.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $176-178.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $178.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $177.50 (1.5σ) | $2,925 | $-177,419 | +$19,644 | +$2,900 |
| +2.5% | $181.94 (1.7σ) | $-8,169 | $-185,772 | +$11,290 | -$8,194 |
| +5% | $186.38 (1.9σ) | $-19,262 | $-194,126 | +$2,937 | -$19,288 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (22.1σ) | $-960,825 | $-903,122 | -$706,060 | -$303,350 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (22 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.60/sh | +$7,924 cycle +$9,398 [+$6,610…+$9,427] · 98% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$175,574 NOT cap gain +$21,489 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$187 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.39/sh | +$3,049 cycle +$4,523 [-$1,035…+$4,444] · 69% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$169,905 NOT cap gain +$27,158 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$192 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.25/sh | +$543 cycle +$2,017 [-$3,999…+$1,799] · 42% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$169,324 NOT cap gain +$27,739 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$180 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$79 cycle +$1,553 [-$3,203…+$1,104] · 40% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$177,506 NOT cap gain +$19,556 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$195 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.29/sh | -$635 cycle +$839 [-$5,450…+$489] · 28% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$168,958 NOT cap gain +$28,105 |
| budget: banked $1,474 debit $635 (43% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$839 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $14,672/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,740/mo |
| vs 50% target ($21,342/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($42,684/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,745/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$371,343 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 235.8% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 159.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.7 mo |
| Surgical close (22 ct) | $-173,514 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $168.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $168-170.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $170.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $170.00 (1.9σ) | $1,474 | $-183,498 | +$13,565 | +$1,452 |
| +2.5% | $174.25 (2.3σ) | $-7,876 | $-190,224 | +$6,839 | -$7,898 |
| +5% | $178.50 (2.7σ) | $-17,226 | $-196,949 | +$113 | -$17,248 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (40.4σ) | $-863,126 | $-884,320 | -$687,258 | -$284,548 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$168 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.50/sh | +$8,762 cycle +$10,937 [+$7,183…+$10,694] · 99% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$175,581 NOT cap gain +$21,481 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$185 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.23/sh | +$3,084 cycle +$5,259 [-$1,290…+$4,699] · 68% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$170,716 NOT cap gain +$26,347 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$175 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.49/sh | +$1,234 cycle +$3,409 [-$2,027…+$2,581] · 55% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$178,741 NOT cap gain +$18,322 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$190 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.11/sh | +$263 cycle +$2,438 [-$4,550…+$1,742] · 42% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$170,449 NOT cap gain +$26,614 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$195 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.82/sh | -$2,055 cycle +$120 [-$7,472…-$665] · 18% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$169,680 NOT cap gain +$27,382 |
| budget: banked $2,175 debit $2,055 (94% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$120 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $14,444/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $21,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($21,342/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($42,684/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $21,750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$427,731 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 271.6% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 184.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-197,225 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $165.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $166-168.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $168.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $167.50 (1.7σ) | $2,175 | $-184,344 | +$12,719 | +$2,150 |
| +2.5% | $171.69 (2.1σ) | $-8,294 | $-192,227 | +$4,836 | -$8,319 |
| +5% | $175.88 (2.5σ) | $-18,762 | $-200,110 | -$3,047 | -$18,788 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (40.4σ) | $-986,575 | $-928,872 | -$731,810 | -$329,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$160 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.22/sh | +$6,444 cycle +$10,764 [+$4,447…+$7,315] · 98% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$180,381 NOT cap gain +$16,682 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$175 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.48/sh | +$2,958 cycle +$7,278 [-$1,711…+$3,111] · 61% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$174,867 NOT cap gain +$22,195 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$167 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.25/sh | +$493 cycle +$4,813 [-$3,188…+$640] · 30% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$181,963 NOT cap gain +$15,099 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$180 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.28/sh | +$553 cycle +$4,873 [-$4,697…+$484] · 28% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$174,185 NOT cap gain +$22,878 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$195 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$2.13/sh | -$4,253 cycle +$67 [-$10,857…-$4,829] | 88% surv 87% | -$169,728 NOT cap gain +$27,334 |
| budget: banked $4,320 debit $4,253 (98% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,034/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $43,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($21,342/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($42,684/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $43,209/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$354,604 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 225.1% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 152.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-157,770 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $158.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $158-162.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $162.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $160.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,320 | $-186,825 | +$10,238 | +$4,300 |
| +2.5% | $164.00 (1.3σ) | $-3,680 | $-192,355 | +$4,708 | -$3,700 |
| +5% | $168.00 (1.7σ) | $-11,680 | $-197,885 | -$822 | -$11,700 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (40.4σ) | $-801,680 | $-875,472 | -$678,410 | -$275,700 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$125 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$5.28/sh | +$2,641 cycle +$2,646 | 70% surv 54% | +$788 SAFE cap gain +$21,623 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$136 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.75/sh | +$375 cycle +$380 | 79% surv 71% | +$4,385 SAFE cap gain +$25,220 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$146 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$82 cycle +$87 | 82% surv 78% | +$9,337 SAFE cap gain +$30,172 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $50/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,103/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($8,206/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-97/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,038 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 19.9% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 4.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-20,842 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $123.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $124-125.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $125.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $125.00 (3.6σ) | $5 | $-1,854 | +$18,981 | -$445 |
| +2.5% | $128.12 (3.9σ) | $-1,558 | $-1,777 | +$19,058 | -$445 |
| +5% | $131.25 (4.2σ) | $-3,120 | $-1,700 | +$19,135 | -$445 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$103 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$5.05/sh | +$2,526 cycle +$2,921 [+$2,273…+$2,777] · 100% credit | 71% surv 54% | -$10,477 NOT cap gain +$10,358 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$119 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.39/sh | +$693 cycle +$1,088 [-$190…+$925] · 67% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$3,823 NOT cap gain +$17,012 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$114 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.65/sh | +$324 cycle +$719 [-$506…+$471] · 51% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$6,815 NOT cap gain +$14,020 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$124 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.22/sh | +$111 cycle +$506 [-$926…+$324] · 40% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$1,783 NOT cap gain +$19,052 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,103/mo) | -4% |
| vs normal income ($8,206/mo) | 48% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,803/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,648 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 123.7% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 25.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-20,862 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $101.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $102-103.84 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $103.84 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $103.00 (1.4σ) | $395 | $-13,003 | +$7,832 | -$55 |
| +2.5% | $105.57 (1.7σ) | $-892 | $-12,940 | +$7,895 | -$1,342 |
| +5% | $108.15 (1.9σ) | $-2,180 | $-12,876 | +$7,959 | -$2,630 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (3.6σ) | $-10,830 | $-12,453 | +$8,382 | -$11,055 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$105 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$5.08/sh | +$2,542 cycle +$2,832 [+$2,264…+$2,847] · 100% credit | 71% surv 54% | -$9,516 NOT cap gain +$11,319 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$121 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.40/sh | +$702 cycle +$992 [-$200…+$951] · 68% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$2,870 NOT cap gain +$17,965 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$116 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.67/sh | +$334 cycle +$624 [-$435…+$477] · 55% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$5,861 NOT cap gain +$14,974 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$126 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.23/sh | +$115 cycle +$405 [-$937…+$337] · 44% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$835 NOT cap gain +$20,000 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,103/mo) | -29% |
| vs normal income ($8,206/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,753/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,753 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 114.9% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 23.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-20,858 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $103.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $104-105.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $105.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $105.00 (1.6σ) | $290 | $-12,059 | +$8,776 | -$160 |
| +2.5% | $107.62 (1.9σ) | $-1,022 | $-11,994 | +$8,841 | -$1,472 |
| +5% | $110.25 (2.1σ) | $-2,335 | $-11,930 | +$8,905 | -$2,785 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (3.6σ) | $-9,935 | $-11,558 | +$9,277 | -$10,160 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$102 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$5.03/sh | +$2,517 cycle +$2,972 [+$2,180…+$2,752] · 100% credit | 71% surv 54% | -$10,950 NOT cap gain +$9,885 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$118 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.38/sh | +$688 cycle +$1,143 [-$379…+$856] · 64% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$4,293 NOT cap gain +$16,542 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$113 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.64/sh | +$319 cycle +$774 [-$608…+$396] · 50% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$7,284 NOT cap gain +$13,551 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$123 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.22/sh | +$108 cycle +$563 [-$1,130…+$235] · 38% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$2,250 NOT cap gain +$18,585 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,550/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,103/mo) | +11% |
| vs normal income ($8,206/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,403/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,088 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 128.0% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 26.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-20,865 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $100.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $101-102.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $102.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $102.00 (1.3σ) | $455 | $-13,467 | +$7,368 | +$5 |
| +2.5% | $104.55 (1.6σ) | $-820 | $-13,405 | +$7,430 | -$1,270 |
| +5% | $107.10 (1.8σ) | $-2,095 | $-13,342 | +$7,493 | -$2,545 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (3.6σ) | $-11,270 | $-12,893 | +$7,942 | -$11,495 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$97 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$4.94/sh | +$2,468 cycle +$3,383 [+$2,069…+$2,626] · 100% credit | 71% surv 54% | -$13,162 NOT cap gain +$7,673 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$108 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$2.74/sh | +$1,372 cycle +$2,287 [+$344…+$1,383] · 83% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$8,394 NOT cap gain +$12,441 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$108 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.58/sh | +$289 cycle +$1,204 [-$727…+$198] · 41% credit | 81% surv 74% | -$9,477 NOT cap gain +$11,358 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$118 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.18/sh | +$91 cycle +$1,006 [-$1,275…-$26] · 24% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$4,430 NOT cap gain +$16,405 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$128 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.44/sh | -$719 cycle +$196 [-$2,344…-$928] · 0% credit | 89% surv 88% | +$6 SAFE cap gain +$20,841 |
| budget: banked $915 debit $719 (79% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$196 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,787/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,103/mo) | +123% |
| vs normal income ($8,206/mo) | 112% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,003/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,128 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 147.9% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 30.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-20,862 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $96.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $96-98.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $98.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $97.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $915 | $-15,630 | +$5,205 | +$465 |
| +2.5% | $99.42 (1.1σ) | $-297 | $-15,570 | +$5,265 | -$747 |
| +5% | $101.85 (1.3σ) | $-1,510 | $-15,511 | +$5,324 | -$1,960 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (3.6σ) | $-13,310 | $-14,933 | +$5,902 | -$13,535 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.73/sh | -$9,104 cycle -$8,729 | 66% surv 56% | +$49,529 SAFE cap gain +$172,779 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $662/mo |
| vs 50% target ($15,772/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($31,544/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $662/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-124,813 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (3.0σ) | $375 | $58,633 | +$181,883 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (3.1σ) | $-12,125 | $56,408 | +$179,658 | +$0 |
| +5% | $42.00 (3.3σ) | $-24,625 | $54,183 | +$177,433 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.52/sh | +$6,448 cycle +$7,823 [+$2,761…+$8,915] · 88% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$76,073 NOT cap gain +$47,177 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.30/sh | +$3,765 cycle +$5,140 [-$1,360…+$6,034] · 68% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$80,452 NOT cap gain +$42,798 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.38/sh | +$4,748 cycle +$6,123 [-$2,668…+$6,943] · 66% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$72,636 NOT cap gain +$50,614 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($15,772/mo) | -13% |
| vs normal income ($31,544/mo) | 44% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$99,087 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 358.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 35.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-126,188 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (1.5σ) | $1,375 | $-84,217 | +$39,033 | +$1,000 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (1.7σ) | $-6,750 | $-85,663 | +$37,587 | -$7,125 |
| +5% | $27.30 (2.0σ) | $-14,875 | $-87,110 | +$36,140 | -$15,250 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.9σ) | $-170,000 | $-114,722 | +$8,528 | -$170,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (105 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.56/sh | +$5,849 cycle +$6,899 [+$3,278…+$8,259] · 90% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$66,663 NOT cap gain +$56,587 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.33/sh | +$3,422 cycle +$4,472 [-$382…+$5,737] · 73% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$70,785 NOT cap gain +$52,465 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.42/sh | +$4,420 cycle +$5,470 [-$805…+$6,659] · 70% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$62,954 NOT cap gain +$60,296 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($15,772/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($31,544/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,606/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$72,838 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 263.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 26.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (105 ct) | $-105,105 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.00 (1.9σ) | $1,050 | $-74,207 | +$49,043 | +$735 |
| +2.5% | $27.67 (2.1σ) | $-6,037 | $-74,359 | +$48,891 | -$6,352 |
| +5% | $28.35 (2.4σ) | $-13,125 | $-74,511 | +$48,739 | -$13,440 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.9σ) | $-132,405 | $-77,067 | +$46,183 | -$132,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (93 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.50/sh | +$4,611 cycle +$6,192 [+$1,688…+$6,396] · 88% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$82,746 NOT cap gain +$40,504 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.29/sh | +$2,689 cycle +$4,270 [-$1,302…+$4,366] · 63% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$86,363 NOT cap gain +$36,887 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.36/sh | +$3,346 cycle +$4,927 [-$2,169…+$4,839] · 60% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$78,874 NOT cap gain +$44,376 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.11/sh | -$1,046 cycle +$535 [-$8,126…+$69] · 25% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$72,990 NOT cap gain +$50,260 |
| budget: banked $1,581 debit $1,046 (66% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$535 cash · rolled 93 ct earn ≈ $17,794/mo while parked; 32 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,810/mo |
| vs 50% target ($15,772/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($31,544/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,979/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$77,813 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 281.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 28.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (93 ct) | $-94,209 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.50 (1.3σ) | $1,581 | $-89,053 | +$34,197 | +$1,302 |
| +2.5% | $26.14 (1.5σ) | $-4,348 | $-88,431 | +$34,819 | -$4,627 |
| +5% | $26.78 (1.8σ) | $-10,277 | $-87,810 | +$35,440 | -$10,556 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.9σ) | $-130,572 | $-75,198 | +$48,052 | -$130,851 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (58 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.46/sh | +$2,649 cycle +$5,839 [+$679…+$3,473] · 84% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$93,269 NOT cap gain +$29,981 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.27/sh | +$1,542 cycle +$4,732 [-$1,191…+$2,123] · 54% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$96,072 NOT cap gain +$27,178 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.32/sh | +$1,860 cycle +$5,050 [-$1,966…+$2,238] · 50% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$88,921 NOT cap gain +$34,329 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$28 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.45/sh | -$2,627 cycle +$563 [-$7,877…-$2,780] · 4% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$62,583 NOT cap gain +$60,667 |
| budget: banked $3,190 debit $2,627 (82% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$563 cash · rolled 58 ct earn ≈ $7,796/mo while parked; 67 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $31,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($15,772/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($31,544/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $32,255/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$52,124 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 188.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 18.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (58 ct) | $-58,145 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-25.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,190 | $-97,614 | +$25,636 | +$3,016 |
| +2.5% | $25.11 (1.1σ) | $-362 | $-94,873 | +$28,377 | -$536 |
| +5% | $25.73 (1.3σ) | $-3,915 | $-92,132 | +$31,118 | -$4,089 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.9σ) | $-85,028 | $-29,549 | +$93,701 | -$85,202 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.91/sh | +$1,821 cycle +$5,261 [+$988…+$2,312] · 99% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$6,835 SAFE cap gain +$20,985 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$51 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.62/sh | +$1,233 cycle +$4,673 [+$426…+$1,648] · 93% credit | 71% surv 58% | +$7,971 SAFE cap gain +$22,121 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.10/sh | +$202 cycle +$3,642 [-$764…+$499] · 37% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$8,690 SAFE cap gain +$22,840 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$52 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.10/sh | +$202 cycle +$3,642 [-$764…+$499] · 37% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$8,690 SAFE cap gain +$22,840 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$1.57/sh | -$3,135 cycle +$305 [-$4,627…-$3,229] · 1% credit | 79% surv 73% | +$14,102 SAFE cap gain +$28,252 |
| budget: banked $3,440 debit $3,135 (91% used ≈ 2.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $11,870/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,071/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -25% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,427/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-14,290 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.79 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.79 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,440 | $5,014 | +$19,164 | +$10,460 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $940 | $4,701 | +$18,851 | +$10,460 |
| +5% | $52.50 (1.0σ) | $-1,560 | $4,389 | +$18,539 | +$10,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.14/sh | +$4,282 cycle +$5,042 [+$3,756…+$4,866] · 99% credit | 70% surv 54% | +$3,116 SAFE cap gain +$17,266 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$58 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,433 cycle +$2,193 [-$336…+$1,871] · 72% credit | 82% surv 77% | +$17,740 SAFE cap gain +$31,890 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.30/sh | +$595 cycle +$1,355 [-$1,432…+$991] · 48% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$20,403 SAFE cap gain +$34,553 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$37 cycle +$797 [-$1,545…+$375] · 36% credit | 79% surv 72% | +$7,595 SAFE cap gain +$21,745 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$35 cycle +$725 [-$2,211…+$333] · 33% credit | 86% surv 83% | +$23,272 SAFE cap gain +$37,422 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $35 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$725 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,306/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -6% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,956/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,528 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 4.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 2.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-14,230 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.5σ) | $760 | $-1,166 | +$12,984 | +$3,780 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.7σ) | $-1,640 | $-1,466 | +$12,684 | +$3,780 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.0σ) | $-4,040 | $-1,766 | +$12,384 | +$3,780 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.14/sh | +$3,212 cycle +$3,782 [+$2,814…+$3,653] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | +$1,100 SAFE cap gain +$15,250 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$58 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,075 cycle +$1,645 [-$53…+$1,393] · 74% credit | 82% surv 77% | +$11,445 SAFE cap gain +$25,595 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.30/sh | +$447 cycle +$1,017 [-$802…+$736] · 51% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$13,317 SAFE cap gain +$27,467 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$28 cycle +$598 [-$998…+$241] · 37% credit | 79% surv 72% | +$4,148 SAFE cap gain +$18,298 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$26 cycle +$544 [-$1,363…+$218] · 33% credit | 86% surv 83% | +$15,344 SAFE cap gain +$29,494 |
| budget: banked $570 debit $26 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$544 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $4,729/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,791/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,146 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 3.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 2.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-10,672 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.5σ) | $570 | $-2,111 | +$12,039 | +$2,835 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.7σ) | $-1,230 | $-2,411 | +$11,739 | +$2,835 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.0σ) | $-3,030 | $-2,711 | +$11,439 | +$2,835 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.08/sh | +$3,322 cycle +$4,170 [+$2,846…+$3,758] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | +$290 SAFE cap gain +$14,440 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.62/sh | +$989 cycle +$1,837 [-$604…+$1,229] · 64% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$11,436 SAFE cap gain +$25,586 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.29/sh | +$457 cycle +$1,305 [-$761…+$668] · 47% credit | 77% surv 69% | +$2,804 SAFE cap gain +$16,954 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$333 cycle +$1,181 [-$1,405…+$518] · 38% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$13,480 SAFE cap gain +$27,630 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$61 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.10/sh | -$162 cycle +$686 [-$2,068…-$8] · 25% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$15,686 SAFE cap gain +$29,836 |
| budget: banked $848 debit $162 (19% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$686 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $4,718/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,824/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,582 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 8.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 4.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-11,392 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (1.3σ) | $848 | $-3,032 | +$11,118 | +$1,664 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (1.5σ) | $-1,032 | $-3,326 | +$10,824 | +$1,664 |
| +5% | $49.35 (1.8σ) | $-2,912 | $-3,620 | +$10,530 | +$1,664 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$1.95/sh | +$3,313 cycle +$4,962 [+$2,765…+$3,725] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$1,767 NOT cap gain +$12,383 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$54 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,462 cycle +$3,111 [-$3…+$1,622] · 75% credit | 82% surv 77% | +$9,410 SAFE cap gain +$23,560 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$309 cycle +$1,958 [-$1,019…+$384] · 34% credit | 78% surv 70% | +$1,007 SAFE cap gain +$15,157 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$65 cycle +$1,714 [-$1,804…+$86] · 26% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$12,363 SAFE cap gain +$26,513 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$64 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.94/sh | -$1,598 cycle +$51 [-$4,072…-$1,804] | 91% surv 90% | +$20,850 SAFE cap gain +$35,000 |
| budget: banked $1,649 debit $1,598 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,765/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,490/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,087/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,396 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 16.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 9.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-12,095 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-46.01 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.01 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,649 | $-5,080 | +$9,070 | -$884 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (1.1σ) | $-263 | $-5,361 | +$8,788 | -$884 |
| +5% | $47.25 (1.3σ) | $-2,176 | $-5,643 | +$8,507 | -$884 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.91/sh | +$1,821 cycle +$5,261 [+$988…+$2,312] · 99% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$6,835 SAFE cap gain +$20,985 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$51 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.62/sh | +$1,233 cycle +$4,673 [+$426…+$1,648] · 93% credit | 71% surv 58% | +$7,971 SAFE cap gain +$22,121 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.10/sh | +$202 cycle +$3,642 [-$764…+$499] · 37% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$8,690 SAFE cap gain +$22,840 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$52 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.10/sh | +$202 cycle +$3,642 [-$764…+$499] · 37% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$8,690 SAFE cap gain +$22,840 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$1.57/sh | -$3,135 cycle +$305 [-$4,627…-$3,229] · 1% credit | 79% surv 73% | +$14,102 SAFE cap gain +$28,252 |
| budget: banked $3,440 debit $3,135 (91% used ≈ 2.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $11,870/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,071/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -25% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,427/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-14,290 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.79 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.79 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,440 | $5,014 | +$19,164 | +$10,460 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $940 | $4,701 | +$18,851 | +$10,460 |
| +5% | $52.50 (1.0σ) | $-1,560 | $4,389 | +$18,539 | +$10,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.14/sh | +$4,282 cycle +$5,042 [+$3,756…+$4,866] · 99% credit | 70% surv 54% | +$3,116 SAFE cap gain +$17,266 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$58 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,433 cycle +$2,193 [-$336…+$1,871] · 72% credit | 82% surv 77% | +$17,740 SAFE cap gain +$31,890 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.30/sh | +$595 cycle +$1,355 [-$1,432…+$991] · 48% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$20,403 SAFE cap gain +$34,553 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$37 cycle +$797 [-$1,545…+$375] · 36% credit | 79% surv 72% | +$7,595 SAFE cap gain +$21,745 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$35 cycle +$725 [-$2,211…+$333] · 33% credit | 86% surv 83% | +$23,272 SAFE cap gain +$37,422 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $35 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$725 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,306/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -6% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,956/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,528 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 4.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 2.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-14,230 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.5σ) | $760 | $-1,166 | +$12,984 | +$3,780 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.7σ) | $-1,640 | $-1,466 | +$12,684 | +$3,780 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.0σ) | $-4,040 | $-1,766 | +$12,384 | +$3,780 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.14/sh | +$3,212 cycle +$3,782 [+$2,814…+$3,653] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | +$1,100 SAFE cap gain +$15,250 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$58 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,075 cycle +$1,645 [-$53…+$1,393] · 74% credit | 82% surv 77% | +$11,445 SAFE cap gain +$25,595 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.30/sh | +$447 cycle +$1,017 [-$802…+$736] · 51% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$13,317 SAFE cap gain +$27,467 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$28 cycle +$598 [-$998…+$241] · 37% credit | 79% surv 72% | +$4,148 SAFE cap gain +$18,298 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$26 cycle +$544 [-$1,363…+$218] · 33% credit | 86% surv 83% | +$15,344 SAFE cap gain +$29,494 |
| budget: banked $570 debit $26 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$544 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $4,729/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,791/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,146 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 3.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 2.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-10,672 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.5σ) | $570 | $-2,111 | +$12,039 | +$2,835 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.7σ) | $-1,230 | $-2,411 | +$11,739 | +$2,835 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.0σ) | $-3,030 | $-2,711 | +$11,439 | +$2,835 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.08/sh | +$3,322 cycle +$4,170 [+$2,846…+$3,758] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | +$290 SAFE cap gain +$14,440 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.62/sh | +$989 cycle +$1,837 [-$604…+$1,229] · 64% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$11,436 SAFE cap gain +$25,586 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.29/sh | +$457 cycle +$1,305 [-$761…+$668] · 47% credit | 77% surv 69% | +$2,804 SAFE cap gain +$16,954 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$333 cycle +$1,181 [-$1,405…+$518] · 38% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$13,480 SAFE cap gain +$27,630 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$61 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.10/sh | -$162 cycle +$686 [-$2,068…-$8] · 25% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$15,686 SAFE cap gain +$29,836 |
| budget: banked $848 debit $162 (19% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$686 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $4,718/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,824/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,582 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 8.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 4.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-11,392 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (1.3σ) | $848 | $-3,032 | +$11,118 | +$1,664 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (1.5σ) | $-1,032 | $-3,326 | +$10,824 | +$1,664 |
| +5% | $49.35 (1.8σ) | $-2,912 | $-3,620 | +$10,530 | +$1,664 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$1.95/sh | +$3,313 cycle +$4,962 [+$2,765…+$3,725] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$1,767 NOT cap gain +$12,383 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$54 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,462 cycle +$3,111 [-$3…+$1,622] · 75% credit | 82% surv 77% | +$9,410 SAFE cap gain +$23,560 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$309 cycle +$1,958 [-$1,019…+$384] · 34% credit | 78% surv 70% | +$1,007 SAFE cap gain +$15,157 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$65 cycle +$1,714 [-$1,804…+$86] · 26% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$12,363 SAFE cap gain +$26,513 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$64 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.94/sh | -$1,598 cycle +$51 [-$4,072…-$1,804] | 91% surv 90% | +$20,850 SAFE cap gain +$35,000 |
| budget: banked $1,649 debit $1,598 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,765/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,490/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,087/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,396 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 16.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 9.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-12,095 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-46.01 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.01 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,649 | $-5,080 | +$9,070 | -$884 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (1.1σ) | $-263 | $-5,361 | +$8,788 | -$884 |
| +5% | $47.25 (1.3σ) | $-2,176 | $-5,643 | +$8,507 | -$884 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$60 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$1.18/sh | +$2,365 cycle +$3,345 [+$2,000…+$4,437] · 100% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$5,319 SAFE cap gain +$43,669 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.38/sh | +$769 cycle +$1,749 [+$209…+$2,654] · 83% credit | 72% surv 60% | +$7,939 SAFE cap gain +$46,289 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.38/sh | +$769 cycle +$1,749 [+$209…+$2,654] · 83% credit | 72% surv 60% | +$7,939 SAFE cap gain +$46,289 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$64 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.27/sh | -$536 cycle +$444 [-$1,252…+$1,115] · 44% credit | 74% surv 64% | +$10,882 SAFE cap gain +$49,232 |
| budget: banked $980 debit $536 (55% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$444 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $22,195/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,729/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -79% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $735/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-38,470 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $59.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $59-60.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $60.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $60.00 (1.7σ) | $980 | $2,954 | +$41,304 | +$10,240 |
| +2.5% | $61.50 (1.8σ) | $-2,020 | $3,140 | +$41,490 | +$10,240 |
| +5% | $63.00 (1.9σ) | $-5,020 | $3,326 | +$41,676 | +$10,240 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.14/sh | +$4,282 cycle +$5,042 [+$3,756…+$4,866] · 99% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$18,472 NOT cap gain +$19,878 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$58 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,433 cycle +$2,193 [-$336…+$1,871] · 72% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$113 NOT cap gain +$38,237 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.30/sh | +$595 cycle +$1,355 [-$1,432…+$991] · 48% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$3,298 SAFE cap gain +$41,648 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$37 cycle +$797 [-$1,545…+$375] · 36% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$12,128 NOT cap gain +$26,222 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$35 cycle +$725 [-$2,211…+$333] · 33% credit | 86% surv 83% | +$6,915 SAFE cap gain +$45,265 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $35 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$725 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,306/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -6% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,605/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,548 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 359.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 22.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-38,430 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.5σ) | $760 | $-22,754 | +$15,596 | +$20 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.7σ) | $-1,640 | $-22,605 | +$15,745 | -$2,380 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.0σ) | $-4,040 | $-22,456 | +$15,894 | -$4,780 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.3σ) | $-16,240 | $-21,700 | +$16,650 | -$13,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.14/sh | +$3,212 cycle +$3,782 [+$2,814…+$3,653] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$19,547 NOT cap gain +$18,803 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$58 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,075 cycle +$1,645 [-$53…+$1,393] · 74% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$1,969 NOT cap gain +$36,381 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.30/sh | +$447 cycle +$1,017 [-$802…+$736] · 51% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$651 SAFE cap gain +$39,001 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$28 cycle +$598 [-$998…+$241] · 37% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$12,143 NOT cap gain +$26,207 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$26 cycle +$544 [-$1,363…+$218] · 33% credit | 86% surv 83% | +$3,427 SAFE cap gain +$41,777 |
| budget: banked $570 debit $26 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$544 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $4,729/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,260/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,161 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 269.4% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 17.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-28,822 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.5σ) | $570 | $-22,759 | +$15,591 | +$15 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.7σ) | $-1,230 | $-22,010 | +$16,340 | -$1,785 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.0σ) | $-3,030 | $-21,261 | +$17,089 | -$3,585 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.3σ) | $-12,180 | $-18,205 | +$20,145 | -$10,485 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.08/sh | +$3,322 cycle +$4,170 [+$2,846…+$3,758] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$21,320 NOT cap gain +$17,030 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.62/sh | +$989 cycle +$1,837 [-$604…+$1,229] · 64% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$3,239 NOT cap gain +$35,111 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.29/sh | +$457 cycle +$1,305 [-$761…+$668] · 47% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$15,721 NOT cap gain +$22,629 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$333 cycle +$1,181 [-$1,405…+$518] · 38% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$447 NOT cap gain +$37,903 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$61 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.10/sh | -$162 cycle +$686 [-$2,068…-$8] · 25% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$2,507 SAFE cap gain +$40,857 |
| budget: banked $848 debit $162 (19% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$686 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $4,718/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,929/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,599 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 310.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 19.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-30,752 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (1.3σ) | $848 | $-24,642 | +$13,708 | +$256 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (1.5σ) | $-1,032 | $-24,026 | +$14,324 | -$1,624 |
| +5% | $49.35 (1.8σ) | $-2,912 | $-23,410 | +$14,940 | -$3,504 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.3σ) | $-14,352 | $-20,264 | +$18,086 | -$12,544 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$1.95/sh | +$3,313 cycle +$4,962 [+$2,765…+$3,725] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$24,813 NOT cap gain +$13,537 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$54 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,462 cycle +$3,111 [-$3…+$1,622] · 75% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$7,580 NOT cap gain +$30,770 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$309 cycle +$1,958 [-$1,019…+$384] · 34% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$19,353 NOT cap gain +$18,997 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$65 cycle +$1,714 [-$1,804…+$86] · 26% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$3,200 NOT cap gain +$35,150 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$64 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.94/sh | -$1,598 cycle +$51 [-$4,072…-$1,804] | 91% surv 90% | +$7,904 SAFE cap gain +$46,254 |
| budget: banked $1,649 debit $1,598 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,765/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,490/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,828/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,413 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 373.6% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 23.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-32,665 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-46.01 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.01 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,649 | $-28,126 | +$10,224 | +$1,020 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (1.1σ) | $-263 | $-27,649 | +$10,701 | -$892 |
| +5% | $47.25 (1.3σ) | $-2,176 | $-27,172 | +$11,178 | -$2,805 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.3σ) | $-17,901 | $-23,700 | +$14,650 | -$15,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$70 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$1.48/sh | +$2,967 cycle +$3,267 [+$3,610…+$7,004] · 100% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$7,403 SAFE cap gain +$64,773 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$74 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.08/sh | +$163 cycle +$463 [+$391…+$3,525] · 84% credit | 74% surv 63% | +$13,055 SAFE cap gain +$70,425 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$74 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.08/sh | +$163 cycle +$463 [+$391…+$3,525] · 84% credit | 74% surv 63% | +$13,055 SAFE cap gain +$70,425 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $529/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-724/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-57,420 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $69.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $69-70.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $70.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $70.00 (2.6σ) | $300 | $4,436 | +$61,806 | +$10,280 |
| +2.5% | $71.75 (2.7σ) | $-3,200 | $4,650 | +$62,020 | +$10,280 |
| +5% | $73.50 (2.9σ) | $-6,700 | $4,863 | +$62,233 | +$10,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.14/sh | +$4,282 cycle +$5,042 [+$3,756…+$4,866] · 99% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$37,506 NOT cap gain +$19,864 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$58 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,433 cycle +$2,193 [-$336…+$1,871] · 72% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$19,167 NOT cap gain +$38,203 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.30/sh | +$595 cycle +$1,355 [-$1,432…+$991] · 48% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$15,760 NOT cap gain +$41,610 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$37 cycle +$797 [-$1,545…+$375] · 36% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$31,172 NOT cap gain +$26,198 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$35 cycle +$725 [-$2,211…+$333] · 33% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$12,147 NOT cap gain +$45,223 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $35 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$725 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,306/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -6% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,347/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,110 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 285.5% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 36.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-57,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.5σ) | $760 | $-41,788 | +$15,582 | +$740 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.7σ) | $-1,640 | $-41,641 | +$15,729 | -$1,660 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.0σ) | $-4,040 | $-41,495 | +$15,875 | -$4,060 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.7σ) | $-30,100 | $-39,905 | +$17,465 | -$30,120 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.14/sh | +$3,212 cycle +$3,782 [+$2,814…+$3,653] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$38,761 NOT cap gain +$18,609 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$58 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,075 cycle +$1,645 [-$53…+$1,393] · 74% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$19,710 NOT cap gain +$37,660 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.30/sh | +$447 cycle +$1,017 [-$802…+$736] · 51% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$16,094 NOT cap gain +$41,276 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$28 cycle +$598 [-$998…+$241] · 37% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$31,367 NOT cap gain +$26,003 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$62 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$26 cycle +$544 [-$1,363…+$218] · 33% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$12,323 NOT cap gain +$45,047 |
| budget: banked $570 debit $26 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$544 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $4,729/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,462/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,332 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 214.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 27.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-43,087 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.5σ) | $570 | $-41,973 | +$15,397 | +$555 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.7σ) | $-1,230 | $-41,226 | +$16,144 | -$1,245 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.0σ) | $-3,030 | $-40,480 | +$16,890 | -$3,045 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.7σ) | $-22,575 | $-32,375 | +$24,995 | -$22,590 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$2.08/sh | +$3,322 cycle +$4,170 [+$2,846…+$3,758] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$40,496 NOT cap gain +$16,874 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.62/sh | +$989 cycle +$1,837 [-$604…+$1,229] · 64% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$21,641 NOT cap gain +$35,729 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.29/sh | +$457 cycle +$1,305 [-$761…+$668] · 47% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$34,905 NOT cap gain +$22,465 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$333 cycle +$1,181 [-$1,405…+$518] · 38% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$18,053 NOT cap gain +$39,317 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$61 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.10/sh | -$162 cycle +$686 [-$2,068…-$8] · 25% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$14,303 NOT cap gain +$43,067 |
| budget: banked $848 debit $162 (19% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$686 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $4,718/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,239/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,648 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 238.3% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 30.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-45,968 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (1.3σ) | $848 | $-43,818 | +$13,552 | +$832 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (1.5σ) | $-1,032 | $-43,204 | +$14,166 | -$1,048 |
| +5% | $49.35 (1.8σ) | $-2,912 | $-42,591 | +$14,779 | -$2,928 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.7σ) | $-25,440 | $-35,241 | +$22,129 | -$25,456 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$1.95/sh | +$3,313 cycle +$4,962 [+$2,765…+$3,725] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$43,949 NOT cap gain +$13,421 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$54 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,462 cycle +$3,111 [-$3…+$1,622] · 75% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$26,734 NOT cap gain +$30,636 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$309 cycle +$1,958 [-$1,019…+$384] · 34% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$38,497 NOT cap gain +$18,873 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$65 cycle +$1,714 [-$1,804…+$86] · 26% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$21,764 NOT cap gain +$35,606 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$64 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.94/sh | -$1,598 cycle +$51 [-$4,072…-$1,804] | 91% surv 90% | -$8,574 NOT cap gain +$48,796 |
| budget: banked $1,649 debit $1,598 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,765/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,490/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,091/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($16,182/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,246/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,340 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 272.6% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 34.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-48,832 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-46.01 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.01 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,649 | $-47,262 | +$10,108 | +$1,632 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (1.1σ) | $-263 | $-46,787 | +$10,583 | -$280 |
| +5% | $47.25 (1.3σ) | $-2,176 | $-46,312 | +$11,058 | -$2,193 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.7σ) | $-29,682 | $-39,484 | +$17,886 | -$29,699 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.36/sh | +$7,182 cycle +$9,182 [+$6,441…+$11,417] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$9,081 SAFE cap gain +$15,081 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.18/sh | +$3,618 cycle +$5,618 [+$2,624…+$7,622] · 94% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$5,852 SAFE cap gain +$11,852 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,529/mo |
| vs 50% target ($16,765/mo) | -79% |
| vs normal income ($33,529/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,529/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-6,500 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (1.5σ) | $2,000 | $2,234 | +$8,234 | +$1,800 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (1.7σ) | $-6,000 | $-5,182 | +$818 | -$6,200 |
| +5% | $16.80 (1.8σ) | $-14,000 | $-12,598 | -$6,598 | -$14,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (10.4σ) | $-489,000 | $-452,923 | -$446,923 | -$178,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.45/sh | +$9,034 cycle +$10,434 [+$8,533…+$11,664] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$7,749 SAFE cap gain +$13,749 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,616 cycle +$3,016 [-$948…+$3,276] · 68% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$1,455 SAFE cap gain +$7,455 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.11/sh | +$2,212 cycle +$3,612 [-$1,421…+$4,196] · 67% credit | 77% surv 72% | +$3,511 SAFE cap gain +$9,511 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.01/sh | -$289 cycle +$1,111 [-$5,034…+$1,390] · 42% credit | 78% surv 75% | +$1,739 SAFE cap gain +$7,739 |
| budget: banked $1,400 debit $289 (21% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,111 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $16,453/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($16,765/mo) | -16% |
| vs normal income ($33,529/mo) | 42% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,381 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 176.2% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 176.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-6,100 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (1.9σ) | $1,400 | $-1,286 | +$4,714 | +$1,200 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (2.2σ) | $-5,600 | $-7,775 | -$1,775 | -$5,800 |
| +5% | $14.70 (2.5σ) | $-12,600 | $-14,264 | -$8,264 | -$12,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (24.7σ) | $-529,600 | $-493,523 | -$487,523 | -$218,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (159 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.45/sh | +$7,182 cycle +$8,295 [+$6,115…+$9,138] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$5,651 SAFE cap gain +$11,651 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,285 cycle +$2,398 [-$1,382…+$2,533] · 63% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$877 SAFE cap gain +$6,877 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.11/sh | +$1,759 cycle +$2,872 [-$2,208…+$3,245] · 63% credit | 77% surv 72% | +$2,811 SAFE cap gain +$8,811 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.01/sh | -$230 cycle +$883 [-$5,040…+$1,037] · 40% credit | 78% surv 75% | +$1,553 SAFE cap gain +$7,553 |
| budget: banked $1,113 debit $230 (21% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$883 cash · rolled 159 ct earn ≈ $13,080/mo while parked; 41 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,130/mo |
| vs 50% target ($16,765/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($33,529/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,202/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,408 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 140.1% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 140.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (159 ct) | $-4,850 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (1.9σ) | $1,113 | $-1,532 | +$4,468 | +$954 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (2.2σ) | $-4,452 | $-6,586 | -$586 | -$4,611 |
| +5% | $14.70 (2.5σ) | $-10,017 | $-11,640 | -$5,640 | -$10,176 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (24.7σ) | $-421,032 | $-448,669 | -$442,669 | -$173,946 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (140 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.43/sh | +$5,962 cycle +$7,642 [+$5,088…+$7,038] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | +$4,287 SAFE cap gain +$10,287 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.35/sh | +$4,961 cycle +$6,641 [+$2,972…+$6,103] · 92% credit | 76% surv 68% | +$5,139 SAFE cap gain +$11,139 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.06/sh | +$838 cycle +$2,518 [-$1,238…+$1,652] · 55% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$287 SAFE cap gain +$6,287 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,097 cycle +$2,777 [-$1,917…+$2,005] · 53% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$2,005 SAFE cap gain +$8,005 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.04/sh | -$531 cycle +$1,149 [-$4,166…+$201] · 28% credit | 79% surv 75% | +$1,108 SAFE cap gain +$7,108 |
| budget: banked $1,680 debit $531 (32% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,149 cash · rolled 140 ct earn ≈ $10,484/mo while parked; 60 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($16,765/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($33,529/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,906/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,867 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 180.6% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 180.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (140 ct) | $-4,270 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.50 (1.5σ) | $1,680 | $-1,676 | +$4,324 | +$1,540 |
| +2.5% | $13.84 (1.8σ) | $-3,045 | $-5,908 | +$92 | -$3,185 |
| +5% | $14.18 (2.1σ) | $-7,770 | $-10,140 | -$4,140 | -$7,910 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (24.7σ) | $-377,020 | $-434,183 | -$428,183 | -$159,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (177 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.40/sh | +$7,093 cycle +$10,456 [+$5,744…+$8,284] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | +$6,334 SAFE cap gain +$12,334 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.31/sh | +$5,459 cycle +$8,822 [+$2,535…+$6,400] · 91% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$6,553 SAFE cap gain +$12,553 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$705 cycle +$4,068 [-$2,292…+$1,252] · 38% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$1,069 SAFE cap gain +$7,069 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$844 cycle +$4,207 [-$3,491…+$1,334] · 35% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$2,669 SAFE cap gain +$8,669 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.15/sh | -$2,694 cycle +$669 [-$7,581…-$2,541] · 5% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$140 NOT cap gain +$5,860 |
| budget: banked $3,363 debit $2,694 (80% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$669 cash · rolled 177 ct earn ≈ $13,436/mo while parked; 23 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $33,630/mo |
| vs 50% target ($16,765/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($33,529/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $33,671/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,729 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 297.5% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 297.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (177 ct) | $-5,664 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.1σ) | $3,363 | $-760 | +$5,240 | +$3,186 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.4σ) | $-2,389 | $-6,038 | -$38 | -$2,566 |
| +5% | $13.65 (1.6σ) | $-8,142 | $-11,316 | -$5,316 | -$8,319 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (24.7σ) | $-484,272 | $-483,937 | -$477,937 | -$209,214 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$150 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$2.56/sh | -$1,537 cycle -$1,525 | 67% surv 53% | -$1,279 NOT cap gain +$45,377 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $21/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,865/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($7,729/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-327/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-46,713 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $148.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $148-150.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $150.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $150.00 (4.0σ) | $12 | $258 | +$46,914 | +$5,982 |
| +2.5% | $153.75 (4.2σ) | $-2,238 | $335 | +$46,991 | +$5,982 |
| +5% | $157.50 (4.4σ) | $-4,488 | $411 | +$47,067 | +$5,982 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.16/sh | +$1,898 cycle +$2,210 [+$1,583…+$2,126] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$37,250 NOT cap gain +$9,406 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$98 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.99/sh | +$595 cycle +$907 [-$351…+$742] · 61% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$31,356 NOT cap gain +$15,300 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$94 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.17/sh | +$104 cycle +$416 [-$708…+$208] · 38% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$34,329 NOT cap gain +$12,327 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$102 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$319 [-$975…+$148] · 33% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$29,462 NOT cap gain +$17,194 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$104 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.17/sh | -$103 cycle +$209 [-$1,113…+$34] · 26% credit | 85% surv 81% | -$28,331 NOT cap gain +$18,325 |
| budget: banked $312 debit $103 (33% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$209 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,569/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,865/mo) | -19% |
| vs normal income ($7,729/mo) | 40% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,772/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,573 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 235.9% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 53.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-46,704 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $85.14 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $85-86.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $86.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $86.00 (1.5σ) | $312 | $-39,147 | +$7,509 | +$282 |
| +2.5% | $88.15 (1.7σ) | $-978 | $-39,104 | +$7,552 | -$1,008 |
| +5% | $90.30 (2.0σ) | $-2,268 | $-39,060 | +$7,596 | -$2,298 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.4σ) | $-33,018 | $-38,014 | +$8,642 | -$32,118 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.16/sh | +$1,581 cycle +$1,841 [+$1,299…+$1,766] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$37,613 NOT cap gain +$9,043 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$98 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.99/sh | +$496 cycle +$756 [-$303…+$641] · 64% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$31,502 NOT cap gain +$15,154 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$94 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.17/sh | +$86 cycle +$346 [-$620…+$195] · 44% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$34,393 NOT cap gain +$12,263 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$102 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$6 cycle +$266 [-$819…+$148] · 39% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$29,510 NOT cap gain +$17,146 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$104 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.17/sh | -$86 cycle +$174 [-$929…+$52] · 29% credit | 85% surv 81% | -$28,361 NOT cap gain +$18,295 |
| budget: banked $260 debit $86 (33% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$174 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,141/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,865/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($7,729/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,261/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,311 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 196.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 44.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,920 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $85.14 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $85-86.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $86.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $86.00 (1.5σ) | $260 | $-39,194 | +$7,462 | +$235 |
| +2.5% | $88.15 (1.7σ) | $-815 | $-38,936 | +$7,720 | -$840 |
| +5% | $90.30 (2.0σ) | $-1,890 | $-38,677 | +$7,979 | -$1,915 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.4σ) | $-27,515 | $-32,661 | +$13,995 | -$26,765 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.16/sh | +$1,893 cycle +$2,301 [+$1,526…+$2,107] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$37,778 NOT cap gain +$8,878 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$97 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.98/sh | +$591 cycle +$999 [-$417…+$758] · 63% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$31,885 NOT cap gain +$14,771 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$93 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.17/sh | +$103 cycle +$511 [-$779…+$213] · 38% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$34,854 NOT cap gain +$11,802 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$101 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$8 cycle +$416 [-$1,038…+$165] · 34% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$29,986 NOT cap gain +$16,670 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$103 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.17/sh | -$103 cycle +$305 [-$1,176…+$44] · 28% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$28,855 NOT cap gain +$17,801 |
| budget: banked $408 debit $103 (25% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,538/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,080/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,865/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($7,729/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,732/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,077 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 239.0% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 54.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-46,668 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $84.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-85.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $85.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $85.00 (1.3σ) | $408 | $-39,672 | +$6,984 | +$378 |
| +2.5% | $87.12 (1.6σ) | $-867 | $-39,628 | +$7,028 | -$897 |
| +5% | $89.25 (1.9σ) | $-2,142 | $-39,585 | +$7,071 | -$2,172 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.4σ) | $-33,522 | $-38,518 | +$8,138 | -$32,622 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.12/sh | +$1,872 cycle +$2,670 [+$1,380…+$2,037] · 99% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$39,891 NOT cap gain +$6,765 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$92 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$1.21/sh | +$723 cycle +$1,521 [-$476…+$777] · 62% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$34,464 NOT cap gain +$12,192 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$89 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.16/sh | +$96 cycle +$894 [-$942…+$109] · 30% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$36,952 NOT cap gain +$9,704 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$4 cycle +$802 [-$1,270…+$40] · 27% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$32,081 NOT cap gain +$14,575 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$1.31/sh | -$787 cycle +$11 [-$2,270…-$814] | 87% surv 86% | -$29,770 NOT cap gain +$16,886 |
| budget: banked $798 debit $787 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,034/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,980/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,865/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($7,729/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,632/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,087 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 251.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 57.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.2 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-46,701 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.19 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-82.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $798 | $-41,763 | +$4,893 | +$768 |
| +2.5% | $83.02 (1.1σ) | $-417 | $-41,722 | +$4,934 | -$447 |
| +5% | $85.05 (1.3σ) | $-1,632 | $-41,681 | +$4,975 | -$1,662 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.4σ) | $-35,532 | $-40,528 | +$6,128 | -$34,632 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$185 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.44/sh | +$1,720 cycle +$2,225 | 70% surv 54% | -$1,182 NOT cap gain +$26,255 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$193 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.23/sh | +$113 cycle +$618 | 74% surv 63% | +$245 SAFE cap gain +$27,682 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$203 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.23/sh | +$114 cycle +$619 | 77% surv 69% | +$3,866 SAFE cap gain +$31,303 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$207 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.82/sh | -$408 cycle +$97 | 79% surv 72% | +$4,792 SAFE cap gain +$32,229 |
| budget: banked $505 debit $408 (81% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,874/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,309/mo) | -20% |
| vs normal income ($12,618/mo) | 40% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,050/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-27,445 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $183.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $183-186.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $186.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $185.00 (4.6σ) | $505 | $-2,902 | +$24,535 | -$435 |
| +2.5% | $189.62 (5.0σ) | $-1,807 | $-3,540 | +$23,897 | -$435 |
| +5% | $194.25 (5.3σ) | $-4,120 | $-4,179 | +$23,259 | -$435 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$138 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$4.00/sh | +$1,999 cycle +$4,324 [+$1,207…+$2,496] · 96% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$16,097 NOT cap gain +$11,340 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$150 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$2.69/sh | +$1,344 cycle +$3,669 [-$321…+$1,580] · 67% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$12,270 NOT cap gain +$15,167 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$148 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$33 cycle +$2,358 [-$1,426…+$175] · 29% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$14,304 NOT cap gain +$13,133 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$159 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.15/sh | +$77 cycle +$2,402 [-$2,075…+$97] · 27% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$10,279 NOT cap gain +$17,159 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$187 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$4.41/sh | -$2,204 cycle +$121 [-$5,461…-$2,659] | 89% surv 87% | -$2,605 NOT cap gain +$24,832 |
| budget: banked $2,325 debit $2,204 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$121 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,283/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $23,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,309/mo) | +269% |
| vs normal income ($12,618/mo) | 184% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $23,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,398 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 151.1% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 46.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-27,462 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $136.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $137-142.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $142.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $138.00 (1.4σ) | $2,325 | $-18,096 | +$9,341 | +$1,385 |
| +2.5% | $141.45 (1.6σ) | $600 | $-18,572 | +$8,865 | -$340 |
| +5% | $144.90 (1.8σ) | $-1,125 | $-19,048 | +$8,389 | -$2,065 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.7σ) | $-21,675 | $-24,720 | +$2,717 | -$22,115 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$178 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.59/sh | +$1,438 cycle +$1,902 [+$1,519…+$2,549] · 94% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$4,032 NOT cap gain +$23,405 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$187 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$5 cycle +$469 [-$657…+$809] · 65% credit | 75% surv 64% | -$2,257 NOT cap gain +$25,180 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$196 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.44/sh | +$174 cycle +$638 [-$855…+$1,053] · 62% credit | 77% surv 70% | +$270 SAFE cap gain +$27,708 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$197 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$65 cycle +$529 [-$1,018…+$924] · 59% credit | 78% surv 70% | +$423 SAFE cap gain +$27,861 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$202 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.11/sh | -$442 cycle +$22 [-$1,789…+$320] · 37% credit | 80% surv 73% | +$1,226 SAFE cap gain +$28,663 |
| budget: banked $464 debit $442 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$22 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $5,868/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,640/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,309/mo) | -26% |
| vs normal income ($12,618/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,204/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,914 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 14.2% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 4.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-21,968 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $175.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $176-178.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $178.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $177.50 (4.1σ) | $464 | $-5,470 | +$21,967 | -$288 |
| +2.5% | $181.94 (4.4σ) | $-1,311 | $-5,639 | +$21,799 | -$2,063 |
| +5% | $186.38 (4.7σ) | $-3,086 | $-5,945 | +$21,493 | -$3,288 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$3.72/sh | +$1,862 cycle +$2,587 [+$1,781…+$3,214] · 93% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$6,250 NOT cap gain +$21,188 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$182 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$2.42/sh | +$1,211 cycle +$1,936 [+$50…+$2,478] · 75% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$2,419 NOT cap gain +$25,018 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$179 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$71 cycle +$796 [-$893…+$1,065] · 53% credit | 75% surv 64% | -$4,645 NOT cap gain +$22,793 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$190 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$32 cycle +$757 [-$1,737…+$1,099] · 50% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$702 NOT cap gain +$26,735 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$196 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.37/sh | -$683 cycle +$42 [-$2,796…+$259] · 38% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$755 SAFE cap gain +$28,193 |
| budget: banked $725 debit $683 (94% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,816/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,309/mo) | +15% |
| vs normal income ($12,618/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,998 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 44.4% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 13.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-27,445 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $168.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $168-171.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $171.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $170.00 (3.6σ) | $725 | $-8,112 | +$19,325 | -$215 |
| +2.5% | $174.25 (3.9σ) | $-1,400 | $-8,699 | +$18,739 | -$2,340 |
| +5% | $178.50 (4.2σ) | $-3,525 | $-9,285 | +$18,152 | -$4,465 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.7σ) | $-7,275 | $-10,320 | +$17,117 | -$7,715 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$138 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$4.00/sh | +$1,199 cycle +$2,594 [+$711…+$1,536] · 97% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$17,451 NOT cap gain +$9,987 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$150 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$2.69/sh | +$806 cycle +$2,201 [-$178…+$1,035] · 68% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$13,362 NOT cap gain +$14,076 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$148 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$20 cycle +$1,415 [-$853…+$178] · 32% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$14,872 NOT cap gain +$12,566 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$159 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.15/sh | +$46 cycle +$1,441 [-$1,221…+$165] · 30% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$10,863 NOT cap gain +$16,574 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$187 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$4.41/sh | -$1,323 cycle +$72 [-$3,188…-$1,423] | 89% surv 87% | -$2,654 NOT cap gain +$24,784 |
| budget: banked $1,395 debit $1,323 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$72 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $1,970/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,309/mo) | +121% |
| vs normal income ($12,618/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,078/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,239 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 90.7% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 28.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-16,478 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $136.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $137-142.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $142.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $138.00 (1.4σ) | $1,395 | $-18,650 | +$8,787 | +$831 |
| +2.5% | $141.45 (1.6σ) | $360 | $-18,436 | +$9,001 | -$204 |
| +5% | $144.90 (1.8σ) | $-675 | $-18,222 | +$9,215 | -$1,239 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.7σ) | $-13,005 | $-15,874 | +$11,563 | -$13,269 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$769 | 10 Aug 2026 | 4d left | +$0.98/sh | +$1,177 cycle +$2,257 [+$859…+$1,432] · 99% credit | 68% surv 50% | +$72,639 SAFE cap gain +$9,471 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$782 | 31 Aug 2026 | 26d left | +$2.08/sh | +$2,496 cycle +$3,576 [+$1,101…+$2,530] · 89% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$87,133 SAFE cap gain +$23,965 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$770 | 10 Aug 2026 | 4d left | +$0.36/sh | +$430 cycle +$1,510 [-$399…+$477] · 53% credit | 68% surv 56% | +$73,143 SAFE cap gain +$9,975 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$789 | 31 Aug 2026 | 26d left | +$0.16/sh | +$196 cycle +$1,276 [-$1,597…+$92] · 28% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$91,788 SAFE cap gain +$28,620 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$795 | 31 Aug 2026 | 26d left | -$0.89/sh | -$1,066 cycle +$14 [-$3,152…-$1,252] · 0% credit | 89% surv 88% | +$96,487 SAFE cap gain +$33,319 |
| budget: banked $1,080 debit $1,066 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,278/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,267/mo) | +31% |
| vs normal income ($16,534/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,800/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $63,156 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $761.31 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $761-769.91 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $769.91 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $769.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,080 | $71,462 | +$8,294 | +$984 |
| +2.5% | $788.22 (3.4σ) | $-21,990 | $67,493 | +$4,325 | +$984 |
| +5% | $807.45 (5.9σ) | $-45,060 | $63,525 | +$357 | +$984 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$780 | 17 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.47/sh | +$565 cycle +$1,357 [+$388…+$1,210] · 98% credit | 67% surv 50% | +$82,668 SAFE cap gain +$19,500 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$788 | 31 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,113 cycle +$1,905 [+$286…+$1,814] · 83% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$91,423 SAFE cap gain +$28,255 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$790 | 31 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$148 cycle +$940 [-$821…+$839] · 47% credit | 77% surv 69% | +$92,446 SAFE cap gain +$29,278 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$792 | 31 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.58/sh | -$700 cycle +$92 [-$1,804…-$36] · 24% credit | 79% surv 73% | +$93,584 SAFE cap gain +$30,416 |
| budget: banked $792 debit $700 (88% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,556/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,376/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,267/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($16,534/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,376/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $63,150 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $772.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $772-780.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $780.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $780.00 (1.3σ) | $792 | $82,103 | +$18,935 | +$13,896 |
| +2.5% | $799.50 (2.7σ) | $-22,608 | $78,078 | +$14,910 | +$13,896 |
| +5% | $819.00 (4.0σ) | $-46,008 | $74,054 | +$10,886 | +$13,896 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$772 | 10 Aug 2026 | 4d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,113 cycle +$1,665 [+$849…+$1,425] · 100% credit | 68% surv 50% | +$75,028 SAFE cap gain +$11,860 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$788 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.69/sh | +$831 cycle +$1,383 [-$547…+$1,022] · 61% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$90,902 SAFE cap gain +$27,734 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$773 | 10 Aug 2026 | 4d left | +$0.31/sh | +$374 cycle +$926 [-$309…+$552] · 57% credit | 68% surv 56% | +$75,541 SAFE cap gain +$12,373 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$792 | 31 Aug 2026 | 26d left | +$0.08/sh | +$93 cycle +$645 [-$1,462…+$266] · 36% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$94,138 SAFE cap gain +$30,970 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$793 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.42/sh | -$507 cycle +$45 [-$2,167…-$363] · 12% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$94,531 SAFE cap gain +$31,363 |
| budget: banked $552 debit $507 (92% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$45 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,470/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,520/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,267/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($16,534/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,520/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $63,156 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $764.28 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $764-772.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $772.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $772.00 (1.3σ) | $552 | $73,914 | +$10,746 | +$4,056 |
| +2.5% | $791.30 (3.8σ) | $-22,608 | $69,931 | +$6,763 | +$4,056 |
| +5% | $810.60 (6.3σ) | $-45,768 | $65,947 | +$2,779 | +$4,056 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$770 | 10 Aug 2026 | 4d left | +$0.96/sh | +$1,156 cycle +$2,032 [+$832…+$1,448] · 98% credit | 68% surv 50% | +$73,407 SAFE cap gain +$10,239 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$783 | 31 Aug 2026 | 26d left | +$2.05/sh | +$2,456 cycle +$3,332 [+$1,013…+$2,639] · 87% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$87,882 SAFE cap gain +$24,714 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$771 | 10 Aug 2026 | 4d left | +$0.34/sh | +$411 cycle +$1,287 [-$451…+$544] · 54% credit | 68% surv 56% | +$73,915 SAFE cap gain +$10,747 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$790 | 31 Aug 2026 | 26d left | +$0.13/sh | +$162 cycle +$1,038 [-$1,749…+$238] · 32% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$92,543 SAFE cap gain +$29,375 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$793 | 28 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.72/sh | -$865 cycle +$11 [-$3,016…-$856] · 4% credit | 88% surv 87% | +$94,497 SAFE cap gain +$31,329 |
| budget: banked $876 debit $865 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,971/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,760/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,267/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($16,534/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,760/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $63,162 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $762.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $762-770.74 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $770.74 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $770.00 (1.1σ) | $876 | $72,251 | +$9,083 | +$1,980 |
| +2.5% | $789.25 (3.5σ) | $-22,224 | $68,278 | +$5,110 | +$1,980 |
| +5% | $808.50 (6.0σ) | $-45,324 | $64,305 | +$1,137 | +$1,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$767 | 10 Aug 2026 | 4d left | +$1.02/sh | +$1,220 cycle +$2,876 [+$842…+$1,436] · 99% credit | 68% surv 50% | +$71,270 SAFE cap gain +$8,102 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$780 | 31 Aug 2026 | 26d left | +$2.15/sh | +$2,577 cycle +$4,233 [+$974…+$2,474] · 87% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$85,802 SAFE cap gain +$22,634 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$768 | 10 Aug 2026 | 4d left | +$0.39/sh | +$466 cycle +$2,122 [-$493…+$422] · 52% credit | 68% surv 56% | +$71,769 SAFE cap gain +$8,601 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$788 | 31 Aug 2026 | 26d left | +$0.01/sh | +$12 cycle +$1,668 [-$2,093…-$273] · 18% credit | 86% surv 83% | +$91,186 SAFE cap gain +$28,018 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$795 | 31 Aug 2026 | 26d left | -$1.11/sh | -$1,331 cycle +$325 [-$3,766…-$1,740] | 90% surv 89% | +$96,799 SAFE cap gain +$33,631 |
| budget: banked $1,656 debit $1,331 (80% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$325 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,963/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,560/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,267/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($16,534/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,560/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $63,162 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $759.33 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $759-768.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $768.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $767.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,656 | $70,050 | +$6,882 | -$840 |
| +2.5% | $786.17 (3.1σ) | $-21,354 | $66,093 | +$2,925 | -$840 |
| +5% | $805.35 (5.6σ) | $-44,364 | $62,135 | -$1,033 | -$840 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) | $369.87 | $371.36 | $26.77 | $11.90 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $14.87/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GOOG 1:1); only $11.90 is live theta (~$17,857). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its CC-SS ($369.87), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) | $369.87 | $371.32 | $26.77 | $11.90 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $14.87/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GOOG 1:1); only $11.90 is live theta (~$5,952). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its CC-SS ($369.87), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $85C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $82.85 | $85.34 | $0.93 | $0.93 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.15 OTM = 2.6% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $0.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$586 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $9.98/sh BELOW the $94.98 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $19,952 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $84.58 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 20x $85C at ~$1.32 ($2,650), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $100C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $97.27 | $100.60 | $0.80 | $0.80 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.73 OTM = 2.8% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $0.80 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$273 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $17.22/sh BELOW the $117.22 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $8,610 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $99.50 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $100C at ~$0.99 ($497), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10x $41C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $39.76 | $41.38 | $0.99 | $0.99 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.24 OTM = 3.1% (0.5x a typical daily move). The $0.99 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$330 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $17.62/sh BELOW the $58.62 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $17,624 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $41.38 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $41C at ~$1.45 ($1,445), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $215C 28 Aug 2026 (24d) | $211.50 | $221.08 | $8.50 | $8.50 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.50 OTM = 1.7% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $8.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,013 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $221.08 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $215C at ~$8.49 ($4,244), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) | $369.87 | $374.80 | $18.10 | $18.10 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.13 OTM = 0.0% (0.0x a typical daily move). The $18.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,375 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $4.93/sh BELOW the $374.93 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $2,464 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $374.80 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $370C at ~$18.91 ($9,456), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| NOW | Main:1299 | 10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) | $115.16 | $124.07 | $8.05 | $8.05 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.84 OTM = 4.2% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $8.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,022 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.07 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1x $915C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $868.12 | $924.99 | $20.35 | $20.35 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 46.88 OTM = 5.4% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $20.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$994 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $924.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $155.60 | $166.66 | $1.06 | $1.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.40 OTM = 6.0% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $1.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$806 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $166.66 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $160C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $150.17 | $160.78 | $1.88 | $1.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.83 OTM = 6.5% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $1.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$581 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $159.20 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $930C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $868.12 | $938.00 | $16.15 | $16.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 61.88 OTM = 7.1% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $16.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,973 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $938.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50x $19C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $17.60 | $19.17 | $0.16 | $0.16 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.40 OTM = 8.0% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $0.16 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$600 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $19.17 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $108C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $95.67 | $108.71 | $0.57 | $0.57 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.33 OTM = 12.9% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $0.57 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$328 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $108.71 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $985C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) | $868.12 | $1,001.62 | $6.65 | $6.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 116.88 OTM = 13.5% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $6.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,313 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,001.62 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (10d) | $94.84 | $113.05 | $0.85 | $0.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.16 OTM = 16.0% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,200 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $113.05 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (10d) | $94.84 | $113.08 | $0.85 | $0.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.16 OTM = 16.0% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,028 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $113.08 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (10d) | $5.97 | $7.35 | $0.12 | $0.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.03 OTM = 17.2% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $7.35 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $386C 21 Aug 2026 (17d) | $374.04 | $387.97 | $2.83 | $2.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.96 OTM = 3.2% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $2.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,920 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $387.97 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (17d) | $446.18 | $505.00 | $16.30 | $16.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.82 OTM = 6.5% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $16.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,985 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $505.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $610C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) | $581.86 | $635.49 | $20.73 | $20.73 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.14 OTM = 4.8% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $20.73 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,631 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $635.49 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $105C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) | $99.45 | $107.05 | $2.62 | $2.62 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.55 OTM = 5.6% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $2.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,400 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $107.05 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $410C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) | $363.42 | $430.48 | $23.58 | $23.58 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 46.58 OTM = 12.8% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $23.58 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,043 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $430.48 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $17.60 | $39.13 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $17.60 | $30.29 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 41.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $17.60 | $44.46 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 60.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| ETHA | Main:1299 | 50 | $14.12 | $17.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 18.5% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $36.22 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200 | $11.70 | $22.69 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| MARA-LC20-1782 | Joint:1782 | 50 | $11.70 | $24.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 51.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250 | $11.70 | $26.40 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.7% below BE SS |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50 | $17.13 | 50x $19C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $160C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $85C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (17d) |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $56.15 | 10x $41C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $386C 21 Aug 2026 (17d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $105C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $108C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $410C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $610C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (10d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $792.36 | 1x $915C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $930C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $985C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 5x $100C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10 | $108.93 | 10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (45d) |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $215C 28 Aug 2026 (24d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (3d) |
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $12.45 | 25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (10d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 145 | 55% | 70% | +14pp |
| 60-70% | 224 | 64% | 71% | +7pp |
| 70-80% | 301 | 76% | 91% | +15pp |
| 80-90% | 367 | 85% | 92% | +8pp |
| 90-100% | 637 | 94% | 98% | +4pp |
Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 29% touch rate over 1674 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 116 real buyback(s) recorded · 48 roll(s), net +$1.04/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 48 real rolls: buyback $4.40/sh, replacement credit financed 124% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.04/sh (34 of 48 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.