FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 10 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 5 underwater (not deep DD) | 7 skipped (CSV) | 2 uncapped above water | 23 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $84,167/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $-334/mo ⚠ 2 negative E[net] ⚡ $41,049/mo of that is earnings-blocked (3 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $420,621 locked in if all 15 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				TUNED	RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Tuned	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
APP ↗⚡ER 5d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	1	$393.62	$607.88	1 × $490 $300 cyc · $1,286/mo 92% survhist 100% · T:17%hist 5%	1 × $465 $490 cyc · $2,100/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:29%hist 13%	🎯⚡ 1 × $450 $800 cyc · $3,429/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:40%hist 18%	1 × $420 $1,370 cyc · $5,871/mo 68% survhist 80% · T:68%hist 51%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,111	-$14,988 (117.1% IC)	54.4%
COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	20	$79.20	$95.03	20 × $87 $100 cyc · $429/mo 92% survhist 100% · T:17%hist 5%	18 × $83 $810 cyc · $3,471/mo 76% survhist 96% · T:48%hist 28%	🎯 15 × $82 $1,200 cyc · $5,143/mo 71% survhist 96% · T:60%hist 51%	20 × $80.50 $2,400 cyc · $10,286/mo 61% survhist 80% · T:81%hist 80%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$1,334	-$18,350 (32.3% IC)	20.0%
CRWV ↗⚡ER 11d Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$77.00	$128.75	5 × $92 $220 cyc · $943/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 13%	🎯 5 × $86 $550 cyc · $2,357/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28%	5 × $83 $825 cyc · $3,536/mo 73% survhist 96% · T:57%hist 43%	5 × $78 $1,525 cyc · $6,536/mo 56% survhist 79% · T:92%hist 90%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$301	-$20,823 (203.6% IC)	67.2%
INTC ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$97.20	$118.13	5 × $115 $255 cyc · $1,093/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:19%hist 5%	🎯 5 × $110 $490 cyc · $2,100/mo 85% survhist 99% · T:32%hist 18%	5 × $106 $800 cyc · $3,429/mo 77% survhist 96% · T:48%hist 28%	5 × $100 $1,550 cyc · $6,643/mo 61% survhist 80% · T:81%hist 80%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,071	-$3,575 (24.7% IC)	21.5%
IREN-LC45 ↗⚡ER 27d Neville:0865 · Next Fri	20	$39.88	$58.62	20 × $50 $400 cyc · $1,714/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:19%hist 5%	14 × $45 $910 cyc · $3,900/mo 78% survhist 96% · T:47%hist 28%	🎯 17 × $44 $1,377 cyc · $5,901/mo 74% survhist 96% · T:55%hist 43%	18 × $41 $2,754 cyc · $11,803/mo 60% survhist 79% · T:86%hist 80%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$792	-$23,485 (391.4% IC)	47.0%
IREN-LC50 ↗⚡ER 27d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	20	$39.88	$66.82	—	14 × $45 $910 cyc · $3,900/mo 78% survhist 96% · T:47%hist 28%	🎯 17 × $44 $1,377 cyc · $5,901/mo 74% survhist 96% · T:55%hist 43%	18 × $41 $2,754 cyc · $11,803/mo 60% survhist 79% · T:86%hist 80%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$37,413 (273.1% IC)	67.5%
MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 6d Main:1299 · Next Fri	200	$11.90	$15.18	200 × $15 $1,400 cyc · $6,000/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:14%hist 5%	🎯⚡ 141 × $13.50 $2,820 cyc · $12,086/mo 84% survhist 99% · T:33%hist 18%	138 × $13 $4,278 cyc · $18,334/mo 77% survhist 96% · T:49%hist 28%	194 × $12.50 $8,536 cyc · $36,583/mo 66% survhist 80% · T:73%hist 59%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$20,884 (189.9% IC)	27.6%
RKLB ↗⚡ER 10d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	6	$67.25	$149.78	6 × $8614d $492 cyc · $1,054/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:19%hist 5%	🎯 6 × $75 $522 cyc · $2,237/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28%	6 × $73 $720 cyc · $3,086/mo 74% survhist 96% · T:53%hist 43%	6 × $68.50 $1,434 cyc · $6,146/mo 58% survhist 79% · T:89%hist 80%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$863	-$44,346 (278.4% IC)	122.7%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
COIN-LC500 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$148.84	$331.87	25 × $170 $1,475 cyc · $6,321/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 13%	🎯 20 × $162.50 $2,500 cyc · $10,714/mo 83% survhist 99% · T:36%hist 18%	22 × $160 $3,762 cyc · $16,123/mo 77% survhist 96% · T:47%hist 28%	22 × $152.50 $7,700 cyc · $33,000/mo 61% survhist 80% · T:80%hist 80%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,266	-$336,242 (213.5% IC)	123.0%
GLXY ↗⚡ER 5d Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$22.09	$33.73	125 × $28 $1,500 cyc · $6,429/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 5%	🎯⚡ 110 × $26 $2,970 cyc · $12,729/mo 83% survhist 99% · T:36%hist 18%	90 × $24.50 $4,500 cyc · $19,286/mo 74% survhist 96% · T:55%hist 43%	122 × $23.50 $9,028 cyc · $38,691/mo 67% survhist 80% · T:71%hist 59%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$879	-$82,060 (297.0% IC)	52.7%
TOTAL (10)	427	following every 🎯 $14,606 cyc · $62,597/mo		$6,142 cyc · $25,269/mo 9 of 10	$12,972 cyc · $55,594/mo	$19,639 cyc · $84,167/mo	$39,051 cyc · $167,361/mo		$10,616	-$602,166

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$490	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$2.88/sh	+$288 cycle +$588 [+$75…+$849] · 80% credit	67% surv 53%	-$11,616 NOT cap gain +$11,055
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$504	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.77/sh	+$177 cycle +$477 [-$197…+$711] · 63% credit	70% surv 60%	-$10,219 NOT cap gain +$12,452
Max even-money escape in the band	~$511	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.46/sh	+$146 cycle +$446 [-$306…+$670] · 57% credit	71% surv 62%	-$9,436 NOT cap gain +$13,235
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$496	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.49/sh	+$49 cycle +$349 [-$225…+$531] · 57% credit	69% surv 56%	-$11,162 NOT cap gain +$11,509
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$521	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$2.26/sh	-$226 cycle +$74 [-$761…+$252] · 35% credit	73% surv 66%	-$8,722 NOT cap gain +$13,949
budget: banked $300 debit $226 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,718/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $485.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $485-493.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $493.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$490.00 (1.8σ)	$300	$-11,904	+$10,767	+$295
+2.5%	$502.25 (2.0σ)	$-925	$-11,799	+$10,872	-$930
+5%	$514.50 (2.2σ)	$-2,150	$-11,693	+$10,978	-$2,155
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-9,500	$-11,061	+$11,610	-$9,505

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$465	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$3.46/sh	+$346 cycle +$836 [+$72…+$677] · 80% credit	67% surv 53%	-$14,083 NOT cap gain +$8,588
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$479	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.34/sh	+$234 cycle +$724 [-$182…+$582] · 63% credit	70% surv 60%	-$12,687 NOT cap gain +$9,984
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$474	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.53/sh	+$53 cycle +$543 [-$270…+$352] · 49% credit	70% surv 58%	-$13,412 NOT cap gain +$9,259
Max even-money escape in the band	~$491	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.55/sh	+$55 cycle +$545 [-$506…+$395] · 45% credit	73% surv 65%	-$11,509 NOT cap gain +$11,162
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$511	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$4.88/sh	-$488 cycle +$2 [-$1,172…-$209] · 16% credit	77% surv 72%	-$9,881 NOT cap gain +$12,790
budget: banked $490 debit $488 (100% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,237/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $460.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $460-472.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $472.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$465.00 (1.3σ)	$490	$-14,429	+$8,242	+$485
+2.5%	$476.62 (1.5σ)	$-672	$-14,329	+$8,342	-$677
+5%	$488.25 (1.7σ)	$-1,835	$-14,229	+$8,442	-$1,840
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-11,810	$-13,371	+$9,300	-$11,815

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$461	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$5.85/sh	+$585 cycle +$1,385 [+$27…+$849] · 78% credit	69% surv 59%	-$13,927 NOT cap gain +$8,744
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$450	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$3.76/sh	+$376 cycle +$1,176 [+$11…+$631] · 76% credit	67% surv 53%	-$15,372 NOT cap gain +$7,299
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$459	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.83/sh	+$83 cycle +$883 [-$330…+$275] · 43% credit	70% surv 58%	-$14,701 NOT cap gain +$7,970
Max even-money escape in the band	~$476	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.88/sh	+$88 cycle +$888 [-$557…+$263] · 38% credit	73% surv 65%	-$12,796 NOT cap gain +$9,875
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$499	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$7.55/sh	-$755 cycle +$45 [-$1,521…-$694] · 6% credit	79% surv 74%	-$11,195 NOT cap gain +$11,476
budget: banked $800 debit $755 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$45 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,415/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $445.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $446-458.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $458.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$450.00 (1.0σ)	$800	$-15,748	+$6,923	+$795
+2.5%	$461.25 (1.2σ)	$-325	$-15,651	+$7,020	-$330
+5%	$472.50 (1.5σ)	$-1,450	$-15,555	+$7,116	-$1,455
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-13,000	$-14,561	+$8,110	-$13,005

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$420	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$4.29/sh	+$429 cycle +$1,799 [-$39…+$346] · 68% credit	67% surv 53%	-$18,007 NOT cap gain +$4,664
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$431	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$6.34/sh	+$634 cycle +$2,004 [-$67…+$501] · 68% credit	70% surv 59%	-$16,566 NOT cap gain +$6,105
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$429	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.34/sh	+$134 cycle +$1,504 [-$386…+$34] · 28% credit	70% surv 58%	-$17,337 NOT cap gain +$5,334
Max even-money escape in the band	~$446	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.41/sh	+$141 cycle +$1,511 [-$670…-$25] · 23% credit	73% surv 65%	-$15,430 NOT cap gain +$7,241
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$506	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$13.67/sh	-$1,367 cycle +$3 [-$2,606…-$1,715]	87% surv 86%	-$10,422 NOT cap gain +$12,249
budget: banked $1,370 debit $1,367 (100% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,151/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $415.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $416-435.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $435.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$420.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,370	$-18,436	+$4,235	+$1,365
+2.5%	$430.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$320	$-18,346	+$4,325	+$315
+5%	$441.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-730	$-18,256	+$4,415	-$735
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-15,430	$-16,991	+$5,680	-$15,435

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$585	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.00/sh	+$0 cycle +$5	67% surv 53%	-$1,882 NOT cap gain +$20,789
Max even-money escape in the band	~$596	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.68/sh	+$168 cycle +$173	69% surv 58%	-$479 NOT cap gain +$22,192
reaches SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $579.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $579-585.92	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $585.92	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$585.00 (3.5σ)	$5	$-1,882	+$20,789	+$0
+2.5%	$599.62 (3.8σ)	$-1,458	$-1,756	+$20,915	-$500
+5%	$614.25 (4.1σ)	$-2,920	$-1,631	+$21,040	-$500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$586	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.10/sh	+$210 cycle +$230 [+$346…+$1,317] · 94% credit	69% surv 58%	-$1,507 NOT cap gain +$21,164
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$575	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.36/sh	+$36 cycle +$56 [+$174…+$972] · 92% credit	67% surv 53%	-$2,917 NOT cap gain +$19,754
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$599	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$4.36/sh	-$436 cycle -$416 [-$326…+$610] · 63% credit	72% surv 63%	-$796 NOT cap gain +$21,875

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $569.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $569-576.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $576.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$575.00 (3.3σ)	$20	$-2,953	+$19,718	+$15
+2.5%	$589.38 (3.6σ)	$-1,418	$-2,830	+$19,841	-$1,422
+5%	$603.75 (3.9σ)	$-2,855	$-2,706	+$19,965	-$1,485

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$550	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.19/sh	+$119 cycle +$169 [+$3…+$888] · 75% credit	67% surv 53%	-$5,519 NOT cap gain +$17,152
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$551	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.74/sh	+$74 cycle +$124 [-$60…+$835] · 72% credit	67% surv 53%	-$5,414 NOT cap gain +$17,257
Max even-money escape in the band	~$566	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.98/sh	+$98 cycle +$148 [-$205…+$939] · 68% credit	70% surv 60%	-$3,761 NOT cap gain +$18,910
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$564	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.00/sh	+$0 cycle +$50 [-$238…+$806] · 65% credit	69% surv 59%	-$4,130 NOT cap gain +$18,541
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$571	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.48/sh	-$48 cycle +$2 [-$402…+$778] · 57% credit	71% surv 62%	-$3,364 NOT cap gain +$19,307
budget: banked $50 debit $48 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,308/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $544.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $544-551.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $551.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$550.00 (2.9σ)	$50	$-5,638	+$17,033	+$45
+2.5%	$563.75 (3.1σ)	$-1,325	$-5,520	+$17,151	-$1,330
+5%	$577.50 (3.4σ)	$-2,700	$-5,402	+$17,269	-$2,705
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-3,750	$-5,311	+$17,360	-$3,755

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$545	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.35/sh	+$135 cycle +$175 [+$181…+$979] · 89% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,056 NOT cap gain +$16,615
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$546	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.90/sh	+$90 cycle +$130 [+$132…+$930] · 84% credit	67% surv 54%	-$5,951 NOT cap gain +$16,720
Max even-money escape in the band	~$561	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.17/sh	+$117 cycle +$157 [+$80…+$1,090] · 75% credit	70% surv 60%	-$4,296 NOT cap gain +$18,375
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$566	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.29/sh	-$29 cycle +$11 [-$96…+$937] · 66% credit	71% surv 62%	-$3,898 NOT cap gain +$18,773
budget: banked $40 debit $29 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,301/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $539.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $540-546.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $546.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$545.00 (2.8σ)	$40	$-6,191	+$16,480	+$35
+2.5%	$558.62 (3.0σ)	$-1,322	$-6,074	+$16,597	-$1,328
+5%	$572.25 (3.3σ)	$-2,685	$-5,957	+$16,714	-$2,690
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-4,260	$-5,821	+$16,850	-$4,265

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$540	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.51/sh	+$151 cycle +$196 [+$18…+$1,008] · 77% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,578 NOT cap gain +$16,093
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$541	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.06/sh	+$106 cycle +$151 [-$27…+$960] · 75% credit	67% surv 54%	-$6,474 NOT cap gain +$16,197
Max even-money escape in the band	~$556	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.35/sh	+$135 cycle +$180 [-$122…+$1,107] · 72% credit	70% surv 60%	-$4,816 NOT cap gain +$17,855
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$561	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.11/sh	-$11 cycle +$34 [-$308…+$955] · 65% credit	71% surv 62%	-$4,418 NOT cap gain +$18,253
budget: banked $45 debit $11 (24% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,293/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $534.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $535-541.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $541.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$540.00 (2.7σ)	$45	$-6,729	+$15,942	+$40
+2.5%	$553.50 (2.9σ)	$-1,305	$-6,613	+$16,058	-$1,310
+5%	$567.00 (3.2σ)	$-2,655	$-6,497	+$16,174	-$2,660
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-4,755	$-6,316	+$16,355	-$4,760

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$535	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.66/sh	+$166 cycle +$221 [+$91…+$827] · 82% credit	67% surv 53%	-$7,096 NOT cap gain +$15,575
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$536	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.21/sh	+$121 cycle +$176 [+$29…+$772] · 78% credit	67% surv 54%	-$6,992 NOT cap gain +$15,679
Max even-money escape in the band	~$556	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$7 cycle +$62 [-$311…+$655] · 60% credit	71% surv 62%	-$4,933 NOT cap gain +$17,738
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $529.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $530-537.83	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $537.83	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 23 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 3 watch · 4 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

MU-LC670

Joint:1782

1x $900C 3 Aug 2026 (3d)

$929.82

$910.99

$47.62

$17.80

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$341.84

$352.35

$3.38

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$341.84

$352.31

$3.38

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $570C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$555.70

$573.49

$7.95

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (0d)

$112.24

$126.30

$0.17

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$148.00

$187.68

$0.33

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UAMY

RetireInc:7291

25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (14d)

$5.35

$7.35

$0.08

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC145

RetireInc:7291

3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (14d)

$148.00

$198.70

$0.85

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MARA-LC20-1299

Main:1299

200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (0d)

$11.87

$16.07

expiring OTM, penny buyback at the close, then re-sell

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $205C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$197.75

$206.21

$1.75

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$93.20

$97.52

$0.60

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $985C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$929.82

$1,001.62

$31.78

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NEM

Main:1299

5x $100C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$94.12

$100.60

$0.68

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

ENPH

RetireInc:7291

10x $41C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$37.72

$41.38

$0.72

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$150.62

$166.66

$1.18

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC10

RetireInc:7291

50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)

$17.58

$20.75

$0.11

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $355C 14 Aug 2026 (14d)

$328.00

$362.70

$8.88

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (14d)

$93.76

$113.05

$1.25

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (14d)

$93.76

$113.08

$1.25

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (21d)

$370.52

$396.32

$2.02

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (21d)

$429.75

$505.00

$17.27

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (49d)

$341.84

$374.80

$6.33

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (49d)

$106.81

$124.07

$4.80

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress

Acct

Price

CC-SS

↑ whole

Sell strike

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income @ strike

Normal income

Action

CLSK ↗⚡ER 6d

RetireInc:7291

$14.82

$17.07

15.2%

$17.50 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · 88% survhist 99% ⚡ CROSSES EARNINGS

26%hist 13%

$325

$1,393/mo (28%)

$5,036/mo

sell 25x $17.50 CC SIM ▾

MU-LC880 ↗

Main:1299

$929.18

$1,059.44

14.0%

$1060 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · 84% survhist 99%

33%hist 18%

$4,525

$19,393/mo (33%)

$59,143/mo

sell 5x $1060 CC SIM ▾

SPY ↗ BORDERLINE 21%

Neville:0865

$746.05

$696.30

0.0%

$756 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · 81% survhist 99%

37%hist 18%

$1,044

$4,474/mo (25%)

$18,154/mo

sell 12x $756 CC SIM ▾

IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ BORDERLINE 25%⚡ER 27d

Main:1299

$39.88

$49.25

23.5%

$50 21 Aug 2026 (21d) · 82% survhist 99% LAST CLEAN

38%hist 18%

$2,220

$3,171/mo (27%)

$11,786/mo

sell 20x $50 CC SIM ▾

IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ BORDERLINE 25%⚡ER 27d

Joint:1782

$39.88

$49.25

23.5%

$50 21 Aug 2026 (21d) · 82% survhist 99% LAST CLEAN

38%hist 18%

$2,220

$3,171/mo (27%)

$11,786/mo

sell 20x $50 CC SIM ▾

UNCAPPED, ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner)

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Headroom
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$265.50	$256.25	+3.6%
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$28.70	$17.47	+64.3%

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 7 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$17.58	$39.13	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$17.58	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 41.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$17.58	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 60.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.20	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 18.1% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$35.97	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.0% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$11.87	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 51.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$11.87	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.0% below BE SS

CAPPED: 23 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.13	50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (14d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (21d)
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$56.15	10x $41C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (21d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (7d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (49d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (7d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$22.69	200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (0d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)]
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $355C 14 Aug 2026 (14d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $570C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (14d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC670	Joint:1782	1	$792.36	1x $900C 3 Aug 2026 (3d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $985C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $100C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (49d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $205C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (7d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (0d)
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.45	25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (14d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 1418 of 2008 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	130	55%	72%	+16pp
60-70%	196	64%	72%	+8pp
70-80%	259	76%	96%	+20pp
80-90%	305	84%	96%	+12pp
90-100%	528	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 28% touch rate over 1418 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 111 real buyback(s) recorded · 43 roll(s), net +$1.07/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 43 real rolls: buyback $4.16/sh, replacement credit financed 126% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.07/sh (29 of 43 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-07-31 21:46

Gross FIGHT income	$1,286/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-55%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,237/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,488
… as % of IC ($12,800)	89.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	23.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,706

Gross FIGHT income	$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,051/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,798
… as % of IC ($12,800)	107.8%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	28.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,921

Gross FIGHT income	$3,429/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	+19%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	60% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,380/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,988
… as % of IC ($12,800)	117.1%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	31.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,736

Gross FIGHT income	$5,871/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,822/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$17,418
… as % of IC ($12,800)	136.1%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	36.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,851

Gross FIGHT income	$21/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-99%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	0% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$-28/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,283
… as % of IC ($12,800)	17.8%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	4.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,758

Gross FIGHT income	$86/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$37/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,268
… as % of IC ($12,800)	25.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	6.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,766

Gross FIGHT income	$214/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$165/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,738
… as % of IC ($12,800)	44.8%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	11.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,778

Gross FIGHT income	$171/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-94%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$122/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,248
… as % of IC ($12,800)	48.8%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	12.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,736

Gross FIGHT income	$193/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$144/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,743
… as % of IC ($12,800)	52.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	14.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,744

Gross FIGHT income	$236/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-92%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$187/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,233
… as % of IC ($12,800)	56.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	15.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,898

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$535.00 (2.6σ)	$55	$-7,262	+$15,409	+$50
+2.5%	$548.38 (2.8σ)	$-1,282	$-7,147	+$15,524	-$1,288
+5%	$561.75 (3.1σ)	$-2,620	$-7,032	+$15,639	-$2,625
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-5,245	$-6,806	+$15,865	-$5,250

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$530	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.81/sh	+$181 cycle +$186 [+$64…+$931] · 79% credit	67% surv 53%	-$7,674 NOT cap gain +$14,997
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$531	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.35/sh	+$135 cycle +$140 [+$10…+$879] · 75% credit	67% surv 54%	-$7,570 NOT cap gain +$15,101
Max even-money escape in the band	~$551	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.24/sh	+$24 cycle +$29 [-$301…+$846] · 61% credit	71% surv 62%	-$5,509 NOT cap gain +$17,162
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,783
… as % of IC ($12,800)	60.8%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	16.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,898

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $524.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $525-532.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $532.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$530.00 (2.5σ)	$5	$-7,855	+$14,816	+$0
+2.5%	$543.25 (2.8σ)	$-1,320	$-7,741	+$14,930	-$1,325
+5%	$556.50 (3.0σ)	$-2,645	$-7,627	+$15,044	-$2,650
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-5,795	$-7,356	+$15,315	-$5,800

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$525	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.95/sh	+$195 cycle +$200 [+$220…+$996] · 91% credit	67% surv 53%	-$8,203 NOT cap gain +$14,468
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$526	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.50/sh	+$150 cycle +$155 [+$170…+$944] · 87% credit	67% surv 54%	-$8,098 NOT cap gain +$14,573
Max even-money escape in the band	~$546	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.41/sh	+$41 cycle +$46 [-$100…+$958] · 67% credit	71% surv 62%	-$6,035 NOT cap gain +$16,636
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,283
… as % of IC ($12,800)	64.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	17.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,794

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $519.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $520-526.27	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $526.27	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$525.00 (2.4σ)	$5	$-8,398	+$14,273	+$0
+2.5%	$538.12 (2.7σ)	$-1,308	$-8,285	+$14,386	-$1,312
+5%	$551.25 (2.9σ)	$-2,620	$-8,172	+$14,499	-$2,625
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-6,295	$-7,856	+$14,815	-$6,300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$520	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$2.10/sh	+$210 cycle +$315 [+$146…+$990] · 81% credit	67% surv 53%	-$8,632 NOT cap gain +$14,039
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$521	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.64/sh	+$164 cycle +$269 [+$92…+$939] · 78% credit	67% surv 54%	-$8,527 NOT cap gain +$14,144
Max even-money escape in the band	~$541	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.57/sh	+$57 cycle +$162 [-$257…+$953] · 69% credit	71% surv 62%	-$6,462 NOT cap gain +$16,209
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$546	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.99/sh	-$99 cycle +$6 [-$460…+$785] · 59% credit	72% surv 64%	-$6,075 NOT cap gain +$16,596
budget: banked $105 debit $99 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,061/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$450/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-84%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$401/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,683
… as % of IC ($12,800)	67.8%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	18.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,918

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $514.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $515-523.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $523.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$520.00 (2.3σ)	$105	$-8,841	+$13,830	+$100
+2.5%	$533.00 (2.6σ)	$-1,195	$-8,729	+$13,942	-$1,200
+5%	$546.00 (2.8σ)	$-2,495	$-8,618	+$14,053	-$2,500
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-6,695	$-8,256	+$14,415	-$6,700

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$515	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$2.23/sh	+$223 cycle +$343 [+$172…+$983] · 83% credit	67% surv 53%	-$9,146 NOT cap gain +$13,525
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$516	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.78/sh	+$178 cycle +$298 [+$117…+$924] · 81% credit	67% surv 54%	-$9,041 NOT cap gain +$13,630
Max even-money escape in the band	~$536	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.73/sh	+$73 cycle +$193 [-$222…+$911] · 67% credit	71% surv 62%	-$6,974 NOT cap gain +$15,697
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$541	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.83/sh	-$83 cycle +$37 [-$416…+$745] · 56% credit	72% surv 64%	-$6,587 NOT cap gain +$16,084
budget: banked $120 debit $83 (69% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$37 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,050/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell