FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

46 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 13 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 2 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 2 uncapped above water | 21 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $104,070/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $57,316/mo · plus $8,250/mo CC-safe on 2 shallow row(s) ⓘ ⚠ 1 negative E[net] ⚡ $36,825/mo of that is earnings-blocked (4 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $307,290 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST					RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
APP ↗⚡ER TODAY RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	1	$427.89	$601.11	1 × $610 21 Aug (16d)⚡ $140 cyc · $262/mo 97% survhist 99% · T:7%hist 1%	1 × $505 7 Aug (2d) $390 cyc · $5,850/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:21%hist 18%	1 × $535 7 Aug (2d) $180 cyc · $2,700/mo 96% survhist 99% · T:9%hist 1%	🎯⚡ 1 × $525 7 Aug (2d) $225 cyc · $3,375/mo 94% survhist 99% · T:12%hist 6%	1 × $500 7 Aug (2d) $490 cyc · $7,350/mo 89% survhist 95% · T:24%hist 18%	$2,111	-$7,386 (57.7% IC)	40.5%
CLSK ↗⚡ER TMRW RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	25	$14.02	$17.25	25 × $17.50 7 Aug (2d)⚡ $75 cyc · $1,125/mo 96% survhist 99% · T:7%hist 1%	25 × $16.50 7 Aug (2d) $200 cyc · $3,000/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6%	15 × $16.50 7 Aug (2d) $120 cyc · $1,800/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6%	🎯⚡ 23 × $16.50 7 Aug (2d) $184 cyc · $2,760/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6%	25 × $16 7 Aug (2d) $375 cyc · $5,625/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:29%hist 18%	-	-$1,543 (16.5% IC)	23.0%
COIN-LC145 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	3	$148.52	$188.09	3 × $190 21 Aug (16d) $276 cyc · $518/mo 94% survhist 99% · T:13%hist 6%	3 × $175 14 Aug (9d)alt tenor $285 cyc · $950/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6%	3 × $165 7 Aug (2d) $147 cyc · $2,205/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:15%hist 6%	🎯 3 × $162.50 7 Aug (2d) $228 cyc · $3,420/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:21%hist 18%	3 × $160 7 Aug (2d) $330 cyc · $4,950/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:29%hist 18%	$1,491	-$7,450 (125.4% IC)	26.6%
CRWV ↗⚡ER 6d Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$91.87	$127.70	5 × $130 7 Aug (2d) $5 cyc · $75/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:0%hist 1%	5 × $120 14 Aug (9d)alt tenor $550 cyc · $1,833/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18%	5 × $105 7 Aug (2d) $210 cyc · $3,150/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 18%	🎯 5 × $103 7 Aug (2d) $295 cyc · $4,425/mo 87% survhist 95% · T:27%hist 18%	5 × $99 7 Aug (2d) $595 cyc · $8,925/mo 78% survhist 92% · T:46%hist 32%	$301	-$12,055 (117.9% IC)	39.0%
ENPH ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	10	$39.38	$58.48	10 × $57 28 Aug (23d) $10 cyc · $13/mo 95% survhist 99% · T:10%hist 1%	10 × $44 7 Aug (2d) $200 cyc · $3,000/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 6%	10 × $45 7 Aug (2d) $120 cyc · $1,800/mo 94% survhist 99% · T:13%hist 6%	🎯 9 × $44 7 Aug (2d) $180 cyc · $2,700/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 6%	7 × $42 7 Aug (2d) $364 cyc · $5,460/mo 79% survhist 92% · T:44%hist 32%	$2,164	-$12,852 (176.1% IC)	48.5%
IREN-LC45 ↗⚡ER 22d Neville:0865 · This Fri	20	$40.23	$58.87	20 × $60 21 Aug (16d) $520 cyc · $975/mo 95% survhist 99% · T:10%hist 6%	20 × $47 7 Aug (2d) $360 cyc · $5,400/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:17%hist 6%	17 × $47 7 Aug (2d) $306 cyc · $4,590/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:17%hist 6%	🎯 14 × $45 7 Aug (2d) $476 cyc · $7,140/mo 85% survhist 95% · T:31%hist 22%	19 × $44 7 Aug (2d) $931 cyc · $13,965/mo 80% survhist 95% · T:41%hist 32%	$2,054	-$18,939 (315.6% IC)	46.3%
IREN-LC50 ↗⚡ER 22d RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	20	$40.23	$67.36	20 × $65 14 Aug (9d) $60 cyc · $200/mo 99% survhist 99% · T:2%hist 1%	20 × $47 7 Aug (2d) $360 cyc · $5,400/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:17%hist 6%	17 × $47 7 Aug (2d) $306 cyc · $4,590/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:17%hist 6%	🎯 14 × $45 7 Aug (2d) $476 cyc · $7,140/mo 85% survhist 95% · T:31%hist 22%	19 × $44 7 Aug (2d) $931 cyc · $13,965/mo 80% survhist 95% · T:41%hist 32%	$853	-$30,826 (225.0% IC)	67.4%
MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER TMRW Main:1299 · This Fri	200	$11.60	$15.44	200 × $16 21 Aug (16d)⚡ $2,000 cyc · $3,750/mo 93% survhist 99% · T:14%hist 6%	200 × $13.50 7 Aug (2d) $1,400 cyc · $21,000/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 6%	182 × $14 7 Aug (2d) $728 cyc · $10,920/mo 94% survhist 99% · T:12%hist 6%	🎯⚡ 158 × $13.50 7 Aug (2d) $1,106 cyc · $16,590/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:20%hist 6%	184 × $13 7 Aug (2d) $2,208 cyc · $33,120/mo 85% survhist 95% · T:32%hist 22%	$714	-$29,561 (268.7% IC)	33.1%
MU-LC970 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	2	$897.67	$1,252.44	2 × $1260 28 Aug (23d) $1,730 cyc · $2,257/mo 94% survhist 99% · T:13%hist 6%	2 × $982.50 7 Aug (2d) $1,510 cyc · $22,650/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6%	2 × $1030 7 Aug (2d) $590 cyc · $8,850/mo 94% survhist 99% · T:12%hist 6%	🎯 2 × $1010 7 Aug (2d) $880 cyc · $13,200/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:18%hist 6%	2 × $977.50 7 Aug (2d) $1,670 cyc · $25,050/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:21%hist 18%	$5,088	-$47,608 (95.2% IC)	39.5%
RKLB ↗⚡ER 5d RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	6	$74.18	$147.48	6 × $150 21 Aug (16d)⚡ $12 cyc · $22/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:1%hist 1%	6 × $95 14 Aug (9d)alt tenor $492 cyc · $1,640/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:21%hist 18%	6 × $84 7 Aug (2d) $162 cyc · $2,430/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:17%hist 6%	🎯 6 × $82 7 Aug (2d) $270 cyc · $4,050/mo 88% survhist 95% · T:25%hist 18%	6 × $79 7 Aug (2d) $564 cyc · $8,460/mo 78% survhist 92% · T:46%hist 32%	$1,314	-$39,018 (244.9% IC)	98.8%
SPCX ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$110.14	$184.01	5 × $190 7 Aug (2d) $30 cyc · $450/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:0%hist 1%	5 × $129 7 Aug (2d) $580 cyc · $8,700/mo 91% survhist 99% · T:19%hist 6%	5 × $139 7 Aug (2d) $245 cyc · $3,675/mo 99+% survhist 99% · T:0%hist 1%	🎯 5 × $136 7 Aug (2d) $310 cyc · $4,650/mo 95% survhist 99% · T:10%hist 1%	5 × $128 7 Aug (2d) $640 cyc · $9,600/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:21%hist 18%	$1,593	-$23,696 (175.5% IC)	67.1%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
IREN-LC25-1299 ↗⚡ER 22d Main:1299 · This Fri	20	$40.23	$49.36	🎯 20 × $50 21 Aug (16d) $2,200 cyc · $4,125/mo 84% survhist 95% · T:35%hist 22% above floor +$1,285 · hole 4.4mo	—	17 × $47 7 Aug (2d) $306 cyc · $4,590/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:17%hist 6% locks −$3,702 · hole 4.0mo	14 × $45 7 Aug (2d) $476 cyc · $7,140/mo 85% survhist 95% · T:31%hist 22% locks −$5,625 · hole 2.6mo	19 × $44 7 Aug (2d) $931 cyc · $13,965/mo 80% survhist 95% · T:41%hist 32% locks −$9,248 · hole 1.3mo	-	+$1,285 whole if assigned	22.7% whole ~16 Dec on 🎯
IREN-LC25-1782 ↗⚡ER 22d Joint:1782 · This Fri	20	$40.23	$49.36	🎯 20 × $50 21 Aug (16d) $2,200 cyc · $4,125/mo 84% survhist 95% · T:35%hist 22% above floor +$1,285 · hole 4.4mo	—	17 × $47 7 Aug (2d) $306 cyc · $4,590/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:17%hist 6% locks −$3,702 · hole 4.0mo	14 × $45 7 Aug (2d) $476 cyc · $7,140/mo 85% survhist 95% · T:31%hist 22% locks −$5,625 · hole 2.6mo	19 × $44 7 Aug (2d) $931 cyc · $13,965/mo 80% survhist 95% · T:41%hist 32% locks −$9,248 · hole 1.3mo	-	+$1,285 whole if assigned	22.7% whole ~16 Dec on 🎯
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
HIMS Main:1299	15	$31.66	$17.47 BE	+81.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
SPY Neville:0865	12	$775.30	$764.00 BE	+1.5% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
COIN-LC500 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	25	$148.52	$339.26	—	25 × $165 7 Aug (2d) $1,225 cyc · $18,375/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:15%hist 6%	18 × $165 7 Aug (2d) $882 cyc · $13,230/mo 92% survhist 99% · T:15%hist 6%	🎯 18 × $162.50 7 Aug (2d) $1,368 cyc · $20,520/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:21%hist 18%	25 × $160 7 Aug (2d) $2,750 cyc · $41,250/mo 86% survhist 95% · T:29%hist 18%	$6,995	-$316,797 (201.1% IC)	128.4%
GLXY ↗⚡ER TODAY Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$19.34	$33.14	125 × $34 14 Aug (9d)⚡ $125 cyc · $417/mo 99% survhist 99% · T:2%hist 1%	125 × $27 14 Aug (9d) $625 cyc · $2,083/mo 99% survhist 99% · T:3%hist 1%	🎯⚡ 122 × $22.50 14 Aug (9d) $2,806 cyc · $9,353/mo 85% survhist 95% · T:30%hist 22%	90 × $21.50 14 Aug (9d) $4,230 cyc · $14,100/mo 78% survhist 92% · T:47%hist 32%	121 × $20 14 Aug (9d) $8,470 cyc · $28,233/mo 62% survhist 78% · T:82%hist 81%	$879	-$126,989 (459.7% IC)	71.3%
TOTAL (15)	487	following every 🎯 $13,204 cyc · $107,573/mo		$9,383 cyc · $18,314/mo 14 of 15	$8,177 cyc · $99,882/mo 13 of 15	$7,414 cyc · $78,473/mo	$11,180 cyc · $118,350/mo	$22,180 cyc · $233,883/mo	$25,556	-$674,719

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$610	28 Aug 2026	15d left	-$5.76/sh	-$576 cycle -$436 [-$635…+$597] · 44% credit	67% surv 53%	+$828 SAFE cap gain +$18,995

Spot \ Time	≥ 9d left	3-8d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $603.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $604-613.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $613.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$610.00 (2.0σ)	$140	$1,404	+$19,571	+$1,930
+2.5%	$625.25 (2.1σ)	$-1,385	$1,506	+$19,673	+$1,930
+5%	$640.50 (2.3σ)	$-2,910	$1,608	+$19,775	+$1,930

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$505	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$5.60/sh	+$560 cycle +$950 [-$73…+$796] · 72% credit	67% surv 53%	-$8,990 NOT cap gain +$9,178
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$522	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$7.61/sh	+$761 cycle +$1,151 [-$196…+$970] · 69% credit	71% surv 60%	-$6,963 NOT cap gain +$11,204
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$517	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.81/sh	+$181 cycle +$571 [-$572…+$352] · 49% credit	71% surv 59%	-$8,077 NOT cap gain +$10,091
Max even-money escape in the band	~$542	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.71/sh	+$71 cycle +$461 [-$1,121…+$183] · 33% credit	75% surv 67%	-$5,519 NOT cap gain +$12,648
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$557	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$3.67/sh	-$367 cycle +$23 [-$1,728…-$321] · 12% credit	78% surv 72%	-$4,357 NOT cap gain +$13,811
budget: banked $390 debit $367 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,821/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $499.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $500-509.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $509.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$505.00 (2.3σ)	$390	$-9,550	+$8,618	+$180
+2.5%	$517.62 (2.7σ)	$-872	$-9,465	+$8,702	-$1,082
+5%	$530.25 (3.1σ)	$-2,135	$-9,381	+$8,787	-$2,345
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (4.9σ)	$-7,910	$-8,994	+$9,174	-$8,120

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$535	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$5.08/sh	+$508 cycle +$688 [+$85…+$846] · 76% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,051 NOT cap gain +$12,116
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$557	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$4.52/sh	+$452 cycle +$632 [-$250…+$765] · 62% credit	72% surv 62%	-$3,748 NOT cap gain +$14,420
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$547	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.31/sh	+$131 cycle +$311 [-$359…+$416] · 53% credit	71% surv 59%	-$5,135 NOT cap gain +$13,032
Max even-money escape in the band	~$572	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$7 cycle +$187 [-$807…+$272] · 33% credit	75% surv 67%	-$2,592 NOT cap gain +$15,575
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $529.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $530-537.02	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $537.02	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$535.00 (3.3σ)	$180	$-6,559	+$11,609	-$30
+2.5%	$548.38 (3.7σ)	$-1,158	$-6,469	+$11,698	-$1,368
+5%	$561.75 (4.1σ)	$-2,495	$-6,380	+$11,788	-$2,705
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (4.9σ)	$-5,120	$-6,204	+$11,964	-$5,330

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$525	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$5.26/sh	+$526 cycle +$751 [-$100…+$761] · 73% credit	67% surv 53%	-$7,055 NOT cap gain +$11,113
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$547	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$4.74/sh	+$474 cycle +$699 [-$614…+$634] · 65% credit	72% surv 62%	-$4,748 NOT cap gain +$13,420
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$537	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.49/sh	+$149 cycle +$374 [-$618…+$317] · 50% credit	71% surv 59%	-$6,140 NOT cap gain +$12,028
Max even-money escape in the band	~$562	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.30/sh	+$30 cycle +$255 [-$1,233…+$126] · 31% credit	75% surv 67%	-$3,591 NOT cap gain +$14,576
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $519.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $520-527.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $527.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$525.00 (3.0σ)	$225	$-7,581	+$10,587	+$15
+2.5%	$538.12 (3.4σ)	$-1,088	$-7,493	+$10,675	-$1,298
+5%	$551.25 (3.8σ)	$-2,400	$-7,405	+$10,763	-$2,610
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (4.9σ)	$-6,075	$-7,159	+$11,009	-$6,285

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$500	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$5.68/sh	+$568 cycle +$1,058 [-$140…+$735] · 71% credit	67% surv 53%	-$9,415 NOT cap gain +$8,752
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$522	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$5.21/sh	+$521 cycle +$1,011 [-$619…+$592] · 61% credit	72% surv 62%	-$7,104 NOT cap gain +$11,064
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$512	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.88/sh	+$188 cycle +$678 [-$629…+$282] · 49% credit	71% surv 59%	-$8,503 NOT cap gain +$9,664
Max even-money escape in the band	~$537	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.80/sh	+$80 cycle +$570 [-$1,232…+$80] · 32% credit	75% surv 68%	-$5,944 NOT cap gain +$12,224
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$557	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$4.61/sh	-$461 cycle +$29 [-$1,991…-$497] · 7% credit	79% surv 74%	-$4,350 NOT cap gain +$13,817
budget: banked $490 debit $461 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$29 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,661/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $495.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $495-505.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $505.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$500.00 (2.2σ)	$490	$-9,983	+$8,184	+$280
+2.5%	$512.50 (2.6σ)	$-760	$-9,900	+$8,268	-$970
+5%	$525.00 (3.0σ)	$-2,010	$-9,816	+$8,352	-$2,220
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (4.9σ)	$-8,310	$-9,394	+$8,774	-$8,520

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.46/sh	+$1,153 cycle +$1,228 [+$675…+$1,326] · 84% credit	66% surv 55%	+$1,728 SAFE cap gain +$8,453
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.16/sh	+$394 cycle +$469 [-$202…+$596] · 69% credit	78% surv 73%	+$6,116 SAFE cap gain +$12,841
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.17/sh	+$423 cycle +$498 [-$290…+$531] · 62% credit	68% surv 59%	+$1,989 SAFE cap gain +$8,714

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (2.3σ)	$75	$574	+$7,299	-$50
+2.5%	$17.94 (2.6σ)	$-1,019	$389	+$7,114	-$1,144
+5%	$18.38 (2.9σ)	$-2,112	$205	+$6,930	-$2,238
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.5σ)	$-8,025	$-795	+$5,930	-$8,150

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.42/sh	+$1,056 cycle +$1,256 [+$429…+$1,182] · 85% credit	66% surv 55%	-$323 NOT cap gain +$6,402
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	21 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.31/sh	+$779 cycle +$979 [+$161…+$954] · 79% credit	72% surv 64%	+$1,432 SAFE cap gain +$8,157
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$355 cycle +$555 [-$523…+$408] · 53% credit	68% surv 59%	-$31 NOT cap gain +$6,694
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$207 cycle +$407 [-$617…+$335] · 46% credit	79% surv 74%	+$3,976 SAFE cap gain +$10,701
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.34	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.50 (1.7σ)	$200	$-1,378	+$5,347	+$75
+2.5%	$16.91 (1.9σ)	$-831	$-1,552	+$5,173	-$956
+5%	$17.32 (2.2σ)	$-1,862	$-1,727	+$4,998	-$1,987
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.5σ)	$-10,400	$-3,170	+$3,555	-$10,525

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.42/sh	+$633 cycle +$753 [+$294…+$691] · 86% credit	66% surv 55%	-$775 NOT cap gain +$5,950
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	21 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.31/sh	+$467 cycle +$587 [+$139…+$554] · 81% credit	72% surv 64%	+$1,090 SAFE cap gain +$7,815
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$213 cycle +$333 [-$266…+$222] · 55% credit	68% surv 59%	-$203 NOT cap gain +$6,522
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$124 cycle +$244 [-$323…+$177] · 49% credit	79% surv 74%	+$3,863 SAFE cap gain +$10,588
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.34	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.50 (1.7σ)	$120	$-1,408	+$5,317	+$45
+2.5%	$16.91 (1.9σ)	$-499	$-1,170	+$5,555	-$574
+5%	$17.32 (2.2σ)	$-1,117	$-932	+$5,793	-$1,192
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.5σ)	$-6,240	$1,040	+$7,765	-$6,315

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.42/sh	+$971 cycle +$1,155 [+$291…+$1,057] · 84% credit	66% surv 55%	-$413 NOT cap gain +$6,312
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	21 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.31/sh	+$717 cycle +$901 [+$49…+$846] · 77% credit	72% surv 64%	+$1,363 SAFE cap gain +$8,088
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$327 cycle +$511 [-$593…+$335] · 54% credit	68% surv 59%	-$66 NOT cap gain +$6,659
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$190 cycle +$374 [-$688…+$267] · 46% credit	79% surv 74%	+$3,953 SAFE cap gain +$10,678
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.34	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.50 (1.7σ)	$184	$-1,384	+$5,341	+$69
+2.5%	$16.91 (1.9σ)	$-765	$-1,476	+$5,249	-$880
+5%	$17.32 (2.2σ)	$-1,713	$-1,568	+$5,157	-$1,828
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.5σ)	$-9,568	$-2,328	+$4,397	-$9,683

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.40/sh	+$1,008 cycle +$1,383 [+$375…+$1,004] · 87% credit	66% surv 54%	-$1,234 NOT cap gain +$5,491
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	21 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.28/sh	+$701 cycle +$1,076 [+$36…+$723] · 78% credit	73% surv 64%	+$489 SAFE cap gain +$7,214
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$323 cycle +$698 [-$559…+$295] · 52% credit	68% surv 60%	-$927 NOT cap gain +$5,798
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$119 cycle +$494 [-$750…+$102] · 37% credit	79% surv 75%	+$3,024 SAFE cap gain +$9,749
SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 21 active short call(s) 4 TRIPPED · 4 watch

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $215C 28 Aug 2026 (23d)

$218.61

$221.08

$12.43

$8.81

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$378.39

$371.36

$32.35

$8.96

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$378.39

$371.32

$32.35

$8.96

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$378.39

$374.80

$23.08

$14.69

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $386C 21 Aug 2026 (16d)

$385.29

$387.97

$7.45

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$119.24

$124.07

$10.15

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $105C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$103.16

$107.05

$4.70

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $610C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$595.68

$635.49

$27.10

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC10

RetireInc:7291

50x $19C 7 Aug 2026 (2d)

$17.75

$19.17

$0.16

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $160C 7 Aug 2026 (2d)

$148.07

$160.78

$1.00

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $108C 7 Aug 2026 (2d)

$99.67

$108.71

$0.90

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UAMY

RetireInc:7291

25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (9d)

$6.28

$7.35

$0.22

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1000C 14 Aug 2026 (9d)

$891.86

$1,026.04

$21.07

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (9d)

$96.44

$113.05

$0.98

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (9d)

$96.44

$113.08

$0.98

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $410C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$385.78

$430.48

$34.00

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$86.63

$101.31

$1.88

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $540C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$463.90

$575.95

$37.10

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NEM

Main:1299

5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$103.77

$125.40

$1.03

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC670

Joint:1782

1x $1200C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$891.86

$1,234.20

$30.70

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $230C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)

$160.20

$231.04

$1.00

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$17.75	$39.13	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 54.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$17.75	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 41.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$17.75	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 60.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.02	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 19.1% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$36.19	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$11.46	$22.69	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$11.46	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$11.46	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.6% below BE SS

CAPPED: 21 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.13	50x $19C 7 Aug 2026 (2d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $160C 7 Aug 2026 (2d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $540C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $386C 21 Aug 2026 (16d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 18 Sep 2026 (44d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $105C 18 Sep 2026 (44d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $108C 7 Aug 2026 (2d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $410C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $610C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (9d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (9d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC670	Joint:1782	1	$792.36	1x $1200C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1000C 14 Aug 2026 (9d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $215C 28 Aug 2026 (23d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $230C 18 Sep 2026 (44d)
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.45	25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (9d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 1674 of 2096 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	145	55%	70%	+14pp
60-70%	224	64%	71%	+7pp
70-80%	301	76%	91%	+15pp
80-90%	367	85%	92%	+8pp
90-100%	637	94%	98%	+4pp

Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 29% touch rate over 1674 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 117 real buyback(s) recorded · 48 roll(s), net +$1.04/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 48 real rolls: buyback $4.40/sh, replacement credit financed 124% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.04/sh (34 of 48 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-08-05 21:42

Gross FIGHT income	$262/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	-91%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$194/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($12,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,352

Gross FIGHT income	$5,850/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	+94%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	97% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,781/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,221
… as % of IC ($12,800)	72.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	19.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,242

Gross FIGHT income	$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	-11%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	45% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,631/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,431
… as % of IC ($12,800)	50.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	13.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,190

Gross FIGHT income	$3,375/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	+12%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	56% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,306/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,386
… as % of IC ($12,800)	57.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	15.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,210

Gross FIGHT income	$7,350/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	+143%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	122% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,281/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,621
… as % of IC ($12,800)	75.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	19.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,198

Gross FIGHT income	$1,125/mo
vs 50% target ($2,713/mo)	-59%
vs normal income ($5,425/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,125/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($9,350)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-6,812

Gross FIGHT income	$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,713/mo)	+11%
vs normal income ($5,425/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,000/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,678
… as % of IC ($9,350)	17.9%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	6.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-6,850

Gross FIGHT income	$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,713/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($5,425/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,894/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,007
… as % of IC ($9,350)	10.8%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	3.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)	$-4,110

Gross FIGHT income	$2,760/mo
vs 50% target ($2,713/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($5,425/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,779/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,543
… as % of IC ($9,350)	16.5%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	5.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-6,302

Gross FIGHT income	$5,625/mo
vs 50% target ($2,713/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($5,425/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,625/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,753
… as % of IC ($9,350)	29.4%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	10.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-6,837

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (1.3σ)	$375	$-2,242	+$4,483	+$250
+2.5%	$16.40 (1.6σ)	$-625	$-2,411	+$4,314	-$750
+5%	$16.80 (1.9σ)	$-1,625	$-2,580	+$4,145	-$1,750
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.5σ)	$-11,475	$-4,245	+$2,480	-$11,600

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$190	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$2.22/sh	+$666 cycle +$942 [+$661…+$1,344] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	+$1,883 SAFE cap gain +$15,078
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$194	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.26/sh	+$78 cycle +$354 [-$31…+$672] · 71% credit	70% surv 58%	+$2,651 SAFE cap gain +$15,847
Max even-money escape in the band	~$194	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.26/sh	+$78 cycle +$354 [-$31…+$672] · 71% credit	70% surv 58%	+$2,651 SAFE cap gain +$15,847
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$196	28 Aug 2026	15d left	-$0.86/sh	-$258 cycle +$18 [-$402…+$298] · 42% credit	71% surv 61%	+$3,167 SAFE cap gain +$16,363
budget: banked $276 debit $258 (94% used ≈ 2.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$18 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $5,963/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$518/mo
vs 50% target ($2,377/mo)	-78%
vs normal income ($4,753/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$409/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($5,940)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($43,440)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-13,214

Spot \ Time	≥ 9d left	3-8d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $188.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $188-190.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $190.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$190.00 (1.8σ)	$276	$1,217	+$14,412	+$2,133
+2.5%	$194.75 (2.0σ)	$-1,149	$1,411	+$14,606	+$2,133
+5%	$199.50 (2.2σ)	$-2,574	$1,604	+$14,800	+$2,133

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$175	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$2.31/sh	+$693 cycle +$978 [+$611…+$1,172] · 99% credit	67% surv 53%	-$3,194 NOT cap gain +$10,002
Max even-money escape in the band	~$186	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.14/sh	+$343 cycle +$628 [+$168…+$803] · 87% credit	75% surv 67%	+$369 SAFE cap gain +$13,565
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$181	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.53/sh	+$158 cycle +$443 [+$2…+$513] · 75% credit	72% surv 62%	-$1,520 NOT cap gain +$11,675
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$191	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.87/sh	-$260 cycle +$25 [-$572…+$180] · 37% credit	78% surv 72%	+$1,470 SAFE cap gain +$14,666
budget: banked $285 debit $260 (91% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$25 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,248/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Gross FIGHT income	$950/mo
vs 50% target ($2,377/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($4,753/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$841/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,643
… as % of IC ($5,940)	61.3%
… as % of ML ($43,440)	8.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-13,226

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $173.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $173-176.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $176.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$175.00 (1.5σ)	$285	$-3,886	+$9,309	-$108
+2.5%	$179.37 (1.8σ)	$-1,027	$-3,708	+$9,488	-$1,420
+5%	$183.75 (2.0σ)	$-2,340	$-3,529	+$9,666	-$2,358

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$165	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$3.86/sh	+$1,157 cycle +$1,304 [+$1,000…+$1,295] · 98% credit	67% surv 52%	-$6,275 NOT cap gain +$6,921
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$186	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.49/sh	+$447 cycle +$594 [-$36…+$541] · 73% credit	81% surv 76%	+$335 SAFE cap gain +$13,530
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$174	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.70/sh	+$210 cycle +$357 [-$198…+$265] · 61% credit	76% surv 69%	-$4,161 NOT cap gain +$9,034
Max even-money escape in the band	~$191	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.24/sh	+$71 cycle +$218 [-$509…+$142] · 40% credit	83% surv 80%	+$1,664 SAFE cap gain +$14,859
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$194	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.08/sh	-$23 cycle +$124 [-$635…+$40] · 30% credit	84% surv 82%	+$2,421 SAFE cap gain +$15,617
budget: banked $147 debit $23 (16% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $1,594/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Gross FIGHT income	$2,205/mo
vs 50% target ($2,377/mo)	-7%
vs normal income ($4,753/mo)	46% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,096/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,781
… as % of IC ($5,940)	114.2%
… as % of ML ($43,440)	15.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-13,210

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $163.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $163-165.54	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $165.54	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.