FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 12 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 6 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 22 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $86,220/mo (51% of normal target)

⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these

BMNR 2026-07-16 · TOMGLXY 2026-07-28 · 13dENPH 2026-07-29 · 14dMARA 2026-07-29 · 14dCOIN 2026-07-31 · 16dMSTR 2026-07-31 · 16dRIOT 2026-07-31 · 16d

Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped click a fortress for the full decision dashboard

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	🎯 Recommended	Chal odds	Per cycle	Income/mo	Floor	Net/mo	Banked	POP	Cap @ CC-SS	Rec (mo)
ETHA ↗	Main:1299	50	$14.15	$17.91	26.6%	Sell 50 x $15 (2d) [This Fri]	5%	$150	$2,250	94%	$1,702	-	96%	-$14,410 (66.6% IC)	3.0
MSTR ↗	RetireInc:7291	4	$96.88	$168.37	73.8%	Sell 4 x $108 (2d) [This Fri]	5%	$204	$3,060	109%	$2,741	-	96%	-$23,943 (498.8% IC)	4.3
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗	Main:1299	200	$11.93	$17.93	50.3%	Sell 196 x $13.50 (2d) [This Fri]	5%	$1,176	$17,640	100%	$17,655	-	95%	-$85,562 (1125.8% IC)	2.4
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗	Joint:1782	50	$11.93	$18.80	57.6%	Sell 49 x $13.50 (2d) [This Fri]	5%	$294	$4,410	100%	$4,414	-	95%	-$25,675 (118.6% IC)	2.9
GLXY ↗	Main:1299	125	$23.92	$33.67	40.8%	Sell 125 x $27 (2d) [This Fri]	6%	$1,625	$24,375	100%	$24,375	$1,754	95%	-$81,734 (295.9% IC)	1.7
CRWV ↗	Neville:0865	5	$80.03	$128.78	60.9%	Sell 5 x $89 (2d) [This Fri]	6%	$225	$3,375	110%	$3,193	$1,311	95%	-$19,664 (192.3% IC)	3.2
BMNR ↗	RetireInc:7291	50	$16.15	$19.49	20.7%	Sell 38 x $18 (2d) [This Fri]	7%	$342	$5,130	102%	$6,444	-	94%	-$5,324 (17.0% IC)	0.5
RKLB ↗	RetireInc:7291	6	$78.72	$147.15	86.9%	Sell 6 x $87.50 (2d) [This Fri]	7%	$246	$3,690	111%	$3,360	-	95%	-$35,543 (223.1% IC)	5.4
CLSK ↗	RetireInc:7291	25	$13.19	$16.80	27.4%	Sell 19 x $15 (2d) [This Fri]	7%	$171	$2,565	103%	$2,599	-	94%	-$3,254 (34.8% IC)	0.7
ENPH ↗	RetireInc:7291	10	$44.58	$58.38	30.9%	Sell 9 x $49 (2d) [This Fri]	9%	$261	$3,915	108%	$4,035	$806	90%	-$8,177 (112.0% IC)	1.1
IREN-LC50 ↗	RetireInc:7291	20	$38.15	$67.53	77.0%	Sell 17 x $43 (2d) [This Fri]	10%	$527	$7,905	104%	$6,424	$451	93%	-$41,168 (300.5% IC)	2.7
IREN-LC45 ↗	Neville:0865	20	$38.15	$58.94	54.5%	Sell 17 x $43 (2d) [This Fri]	10%	$527	$7,905	104%	$6,910	$1,473	93%	-$26,570 (442.8% IC)	1.7
TOTAL (12)		565						$5,748	$86,220	102%	$83,851	$5,795		-$371,025

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 22 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 4 watch

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
META	Main:1299	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (16d)	$659.82	$653.94	$51.85	$21.80	TRIPPED ▸	🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $30.05/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $21.80 is live theta (~$6,539). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs.
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$357.10	$361.87	$3.25	$3.25	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.95 OTM. The $3.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,730 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $361.87 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	15x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$357.10	$361.87	$3.25	$3.25	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.95 OTM. The $3.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,730 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $361.87 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC310	Main:1299	10x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$357.10	$361.80	$3.25	$3.25	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.95 OTM. The $3.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,750 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $361.80 (breakeven).
GLD	Main:1299	10x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$371.44	$379.86	$0.93	$0.93	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.48 OTM. The $0.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$810 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $377.11 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3x $465C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$450.45	$475.03	$8.85	$8.85	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.55 OTM. The $8.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,995 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $475.03 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$357.05	$370.65	$0.85	$0.85	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.95 OTM. The $0.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$300 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $370.65 (breakeven).
COPX	Joint:1782	20x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$78.53	$81.90	$0.50	$0.50	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.97 OTM. The $0.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$700 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $81.09 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
AMZN	Joint:1782	10x $257.5C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$247.91	$258.45	$0.69	$0.69	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.59 OTM. The $0.69 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $258.45 (breakeven).
NEM	Main:1299	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$94.44	$100.66	$0.24	$0.24	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.56 OTM. The $0.24 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$306 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $99.50 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5x $190C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$177.72	$191.30	$1.21	$1.21	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.28 OTM. The $1.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$625 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $191.30 (breakeven).
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2x $1060C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$977.17	$1,068.05	$9.60	$9.60	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 82.83 OTM. The $9.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,600 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,068.05 (breakeven).
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$160.40	$176.27	$1.00	$1.00	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.60 OTM. The $1.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$976 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $174.12 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
NOW	Main:1299	10x $115C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$105.23	$115.42	$0.33	$0.33	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.77 OTM. The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$370 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $115.42 (breakeven).
APP	RetireInc:7291	1x $490C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$448.08	$493.00	$2.15	$2.15	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 41.92 OTM. The $2.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$295 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $493.00 (breakeven).
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5x $1075C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$977.17	$1,081.00	$7.25	$7.25	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 97.83 OTM. The $7.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,975 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,081.00 (breakeven).
SPCX	Neville:0865	5x $155C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)	$137.89	$155.80	$0.43	$0.43	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.11 OTM. The $0.43 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$375 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $155.80 (breakeven).
NVDA	Neville:0865	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)	$211.08	$226.60	$1.31	$1.31	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.92 OTM. The $1.31 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$775 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $226.60 (breakeven).
IGV	Main:1299	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)	$93.61	$100.97	$0.38	$0.38	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.39 OTM. The $0.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,104 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.97 (breakeven).
INTC	Neville:0865	5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)	$107.51	$124.00	$3.85	$3.85	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.49 OTM. The $3.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,475 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.00 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)	$34.62	$41.03	$0.92	$0.92	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.38 OTM. The $0.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,473 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $41.03 (breakeven).
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (16d)	$18.48	$23.27	$0.15	$0.15	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.52 OTM. The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$770 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.27 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
RIOT ↗	Joint:1782	50	$19.95	$20.72	3.8%	$22 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · 90% surv	20%	$750	$11,250/mo (71%)	$15,750/mo	sell 50x $22 CC
IREN-LC25 ↗	Main:1299, Joint:1782	40	$38.15	$48.20	26.4%	$50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · 88% surv	26%	$3,400	$6,375/mo (21%)	$30,375/mo	sell 40x $50 CC
MARA-LC25 ↗	Neville:0865	250	$11.93	$14.41	20.8%	$14.50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · 86% surv	29%	$6,500	$12,188/mo (28%)	$44,062/mo	sell 250x $14.50 CC
MDB ↗	Neville:0865	1	$340.98	$375.82	10.2%	$377.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · 83% surv	34%	$420	$1,400/mo (37%)	$3,744/mo	sell 1x $377.50 CC
COIN-LC145 ↗	RetireInc:7291	3	$160.18	$185.51	15.8%	$187.50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · 83% surv	35%	$990	$1,856/mo (30%)	$6,142/mo	sell 3x $187.50 CC
SPY ↗	Neville:0865	12	$751.81	$693.23	0.0%	$757 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · 80% surv	39%	$1,452	$21,780/mo (124%)	$17,530/mo	sell 12x $757 CC

CAPPED: 22 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $258C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $490C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $82C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $465C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC310	Main:1299	10	$392.50	10x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	15x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (9d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (16d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1075C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1060C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $115C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $190C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$15.75	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (16d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $155C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 609 of 2015 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	21	58%	57%	-1pp
60-70%	67	64%	69%	+5pp
70-80%	111	77%	94%	+17pp
80-90%	161	85%	99%	+14pp
90-100%	249	95%	100%	+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 32% avg vs realized 16% touch rate over 609 resolved (daily-close proxy, undercounts intraday touches).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 46 real buyback(s) recorded · 12 roll(s), net +$1.04/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-15 03:39