FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s)  |  10 deep drawdown (FIGHT)  |  8 underwater (not deep DD)  |  0 uncapped above water  |  22 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $70,280/mo (51% of normal target)

GENERATED2026-07-15 21:39
⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these
BMNR 2026-07-16 · TOMGLXY 2026-07-28 · 13dENPH 2026-07-29 · 14dMARA 2026-07-29 · 14dCOIN 2026-07-31 · 16dMSTR 2026-07-31 · 16dRIOT 2026-07-31 · 16d
Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped   click a fortress for the full decision dashboard

FortressAcctCtPriceCC-SS↑ whole🎯 RecommendedChal oddsPer cycleIncome/moFloorNet/moBankedPOPCap @ CC-SSRec (mo)
ETHA ↗Main:129950$14.63$17.9622.7%Sell 50 x $15.50 (2d) [This Fri]5%$150$2,25099%$1,734-96%-$12,148 (56.1% IC)2.7
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗Joint:178250$12.18$19.1857.4%Sell 29 x $13.50 (2d) [This Fri]7%$261$3,915103%$3,954-95%-$16,200 (74.8% IC)2.1
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗Main:1299200$12.18$18.1649.1%Sell 113 x $13.50 (2d) [This Fri]7%$1,017$15,255100%$15,418-95%-$51,669 (679.9% IC)1.7
MSTR ↗RetireInc:72914$100.99$168.2766.6%Sell 4 x $112 (2d) [This Fri]9%$204$3,060109%$2,761-91%-$22,305 (464.7% IC)4.0
RKLB ↗RetireInc:72916$80.50$149.8286.1%Sell 6 x $88.50 (2d) [This Fri]11%$252$3,780112%$3,448-91%-$36,538 (229.4% IC)5.4
GLXY ↗Main:1299125$24.97$33.6334.7%Sell 87 x $27 (2d) [This Fri]17%$1,392$20,880100%$21,165$1,75487%-$56,265 (203.7% IC)1.3
CRWV ↗Neville:08655$79.70$129.0461.9%Sell 4 x $86 (2d) [This Fri]18%$228$3,420118%$3,195$1,31187%-$16,989 (166.1% IC)2.9
IREN-LC50 ↗RetireInc:729120$39.37$67.9672.6%Sell 13 x $43 (2d) [This Fri]20%$494$7,410101%$5,981$45187%-$31,954 (233.2% IC)2.2
IREN-LC45 ↗Neville:086520$39.37$59.7251.7%Sell 13 x $43 (2d) [This Fri]20%$494$7,410101%$6,241$1,47387%-$21,237 (354.0% IC)1.5
ENPH ↗RetireInc:729110$45.57$59.9831.6%Sell 10 x $52 (9d) [Next Fri]32%$580$1,93369%$1,813$80687%-$7,397 (101.3% IC)1.3
TOTAL (10)490$5,072$69,313101%$65,710$5,795-$272,702

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 22 active short call(s)   1 TRIPPED  ·  6 watch

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

FortressAcctCallSpotBreakevenMarkTime valueStatusAction
METAMain:12993x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (16d)$658.64$653.94$52.33$21.63TRIPPED ▸🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$359.96$361.87$2.90$2.90WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC340Neville:086515x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$359.96$361.87$2.90$2.90WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC310Main:129910x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$359.96$361.80$2.90$2.90WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
DELLRetireInc:72913x $465C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$458.97$475.03$11.70$11.70WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GLDMain:129910x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$372.53$379.86$0.66$0.66WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
AMZNJoint:178210x $257.5C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$252.47$258.45$1.46$1.46WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COPXJoint:178220x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$78.65$81.90$0.45$0.45OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC310Joint:17825x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$356.90$370.65$0.70$0.70OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NEMMain:12995x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$95.22$100.66$0.73$0.73OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC165Main:12998x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$166.08$176.27$1.82$1.82OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
QCOMRetireInc:72915x $190C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$180.22$191.30$1.31$1.31OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
APPRetireInc:72911x $490C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$456.85$493.00$2.90$2.90OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NOWMain:129910x $115C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$107.12$115.42$0.48$0.48OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MU-LC970Neville:08652x $1060C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$971.02$1,068.05$6.88$6.88OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MU-LC880Main:12995x $1075C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$971.02$1,081.00$5.53$5.53OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SPCXNeville:08655x $155C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)$137.37$155.80$0.32$0.32OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IGVMain:129912x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)$94.84$100.97$0.50$0.50OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NVDANeville:08655x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)$211.58$226.60$1.25$1.25OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
HIMSMain:129915x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)$35.96$41.03$1.17$1.17OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
INTCNeville:08655x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)$108.35$124.00$4.03$4.03OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SOFIRetireInc:729135x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (16d)$18.94$23.27$0.19$0.19OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown   sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

FortressAcctCtPriceCC-SS↑ wholeSell strikeTouch oddsPer cycleIncome @ strikeNormal incomeAction
MARA-LC25 ↗Neville:0865250$12.18$14.0515.4%$14.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · 89% surv23%$3,500$11,667/mo (31%)$37,978/mosell 250x $14.50 CC
BMNR ↗RetireInc:729150$16.84$19.5916.3%$20 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · 86% surv30%$1,150$2,156/mo (23%)$9,469/mosell 50x $20 CC
CLSK ↗RetireInc:729125$14.49$17.0617.8%$17.50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · 84% surv33%$800$1,500/mo (26%)$5,719/mosell 25x $17.50 CC
RIOT ↗Joint:178250$20.34$21.184.2%$22 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · 84% surv33%$750$11,250/mo (82%)$13,688/mosell 50x $22 CC
COIN-LC145 ↗RetireInc:72913$166.96$188.9813.2%$195 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · 84% surv34%$864$1,620/mo (28%)$5,766/mosell 3x $195 CC
IREN-LC25 ↗Main:1299, Joint:178240$39.37$48.9024.2%$49 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · 84% surv35%$4,360$8,175/mo (28%)$29,250/mosell 40x $49 CC
SPY ↗Neville:086512$754.75$693.690.0%$760 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · 81% surv39%$1,032$15,480/mo (80%)$19,414/mosell 12x $760 CC
MDB ↗Neville:08651$351.99$381.548.4%$385 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · 81% surv39%$310$1,033/mo (32%)$3,272/mosell 1x $385 CC
CAPPED: 22 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope
FortressAcctCtBE SSActive short calls
AMZNJoint:178210$256.2510x $258C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
APPRetireInc:72911$588.001x $490C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
COIN-LC165Main:12998$210.908x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
COPXJoint:178220$93.4020x $82C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
DELLRetireInc:72913$398.003x $465C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
GLDMain:129910$456.0010x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515$373.0015x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
GOOG-LC310Joint:17825$392.505x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC310Main:129910$392.5010x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340Neville:08655$398.0015x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
HIMSMain:129915$17.4715x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)
IGVMain:129912$96.5012x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (9d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTCNeville:08655$114.005x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)
METAMain:12993$601.503x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (16d)
MU-LC880Main:12995$1,028.605x $1075C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
MU-LC970Neville:08652$1,220.002x $1060C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
NEMMain:12995$114.545x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
NOWMain:129910$108.9310x $115C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
NVDANeville:08655$199.605x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (9d)
QCOMRetireInc:72915$224.005x $190C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)
SOFIRetireInc:729135$15.7535x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (16d)
SPCXNeville:08655$186.005x $155C 17 Jul 2026 (2d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 325 of 1082 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?
Predicted survivalNAvg predictedRealized OTM rateGap
0-60%1458%57%-1pp
60-70%4664%72%+8pp
70-80%6177%95%+18pp
80-90%7585%99%+14pp
90-100%12995%100%+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 35% avg vs realized 24% touch rate over 325 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 46 real buyback(s) recorded · 12 roll(s), net +$1.04/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all  |  2026-07-15 21:39