FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

45 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 17 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 6 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 22 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $145,676/mo (51% of normal target)

⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these

GOOG 2026-07-23 · 6dNOW 2026-07-23 · 6dNEM 2026-07-24 · 7dGLXY 2026-07-28 · 11dENPH 2026-07-29 · 12dMARA 2026-07-29 · 12dQCOM 2026-07-30 · 13dCOIN 2026-07-31 · 14dCLSK 2026-08-07 · 21dRKLB 2026-08-07 · 21d

Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	50	$15.57	$19.57	50 × $18 $550 cyc · $2,357/mo 90% surv · T:20%	46 × $17.50 $736 cyc · $3,154/mo 86% surv · T:28%	🎯 49 × $17 $1,127 cyc · $4,830/mo 80% surv · T:29%	46 × $16 $2,254 cyc · $9,660/mo 62% surv · T:79%	-	-$11,465 (36.7% IC)	25.6%
CLSK ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	25	$12.99	$17.26	25 × $15.50 $275 cyc · $1,179/mo 92% surv · T:17%	25 × $15 $400 cyc · $1,714/mo 87% surv · T:26%	🎯 24 × $14.50 $600 cyc · $2,571/mo 81% surv · T:31%	24 × $13.50 $1,224 cyc · $5,246/mo 64% surv · T:76%	-	-$6,021 (64.4% IC)	32.9%
COIN-LC165 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	8	$161.63	$217.27	8 × $187.50 $568 cyc · $2,434/mo 93% surv · T:14%	🎯 8 × $177.50 $1,536 cyc · $6,583/mo 80% surv · T:44%	8 × $172.50 $2,336 cyc · $10,011/mo 73% surv · T:56%	7 × $162.50 $4,515 cyc · $19,350/mo 54% surv · T:96%	$1,352	-$30,278 (225.3% IC)	34.4%
COPX ↗ ⚐ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	1	$74.45	$95.02	1 × $81.50 $15 cyc · $64/mo 92% surv · T:15%	🎯 1 × $79 $45 cyc · $193/mo 83% surv · T:34%	1 × $78 $65 cyc · $279/mo 78% surv · T:45%	1 × $75 $160 cyc · $686/mo 56% surv · T:90%	$35	-$1,557 (54.8% IC)	27.6%
ENPH ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	10	$41.34	$58.28	10 × $48.50 $210 cyc · $900/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯 10 × $45.50 $630 cyc · $2,700/mo 80% surv · T:53%	10 × $44 $920 cyc · $3,943/mo 72% surv · T:58%	9 × $41 $1,899 cyc · $8,139/mo 51% surv · T:99+%	$806	-$12,145 (166.4% IC)	41.0%
ETHA ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	50	$14.13	$17.87	50 × $15.50 $250 cyc · $1,071/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯 39 × $15 $390 cyc · $1,671/mo 83% surv · T:52%	26 × $14.50 $598 cyc · $2,563/mo 67% surv · T:68%	26 × $14 $1,170 cyc · $5,014/mo 45% surv · T:99+%	-	-$10,812 (49.9% IC)	26.4%
MARA-LC25 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	250	$11.49	$14.57	250 × $13.50 $2,500 cyc · $10,714/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 214 × $13 $3,424 cyc · $14,674/mo 85% surv · T:36%	200 × $12.50 $5,200 cyc · $22,286/mo 77% surv · T:48%	173 × $11.50 $10,380 cyc · $44,486/mo 53% surv · T:99%	$6	-$30,122 (86.1% IC)	26.8%
MU-LC970 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	2	$847.80	$1,248.60	2 × $1005 $1,730 cyc · $7,414/mo 90% surv · T:20%	2 × $980 $2,370 cyc · $10,157/mo 87% surv · T:28%	🎯 2 × $945 $3,610 cyc · $15,471/mo 80% surv · T:31%	2 × $885 $7,210 cyc · $30,900/mo 65% surv · T:75%	$2,449	-$57,110 (114.2% IC)	47.3%
NEM ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	5	$90.93	$117.03	5 × $101 $230 cyc · $986/mo 90% surv · T:20%	5 × $99 $345 cyc · $1,479/mo 90% surv · T:21%	🎯 5 × $97 $520 cyc · $2,229/mo 83% surv · T:25%	5 × $94 $925 cyc · $3,964/mo 70% surv · T:62%	$408	-$9,493 (70.2% IC)	28.7%
QCOM ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	5	$170.63	$228.88	5 × $192.50 $445 cyc · $1,907/mo 91% surv · T:19%	🎯 5 × $185 $895 cyc · $3,836/mo 82% surv · T:41%	5 × $180 $1,430 cyc · $6,129/mo 74% surv · T:54%	5 × $172.50 $2,675 cyc · $11,464/mo 57% surv · T:90%	$1,446	-$21,047 (123.8% IC)	34.1%
RKLB ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	6	$67.17	$149.17	6 × $79 $360 cyc · $1,543/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 6 × $77 $492 cyc · $2,109/mo 87% surv · T:32%	6 × $74 $816 cyc · $3,497/mo 79% surv · T:43%	6 × $70 $1,476 cyc · $6,326/mo 65% surv · T:73%	-	-$42,809 (268.7% IC)	122.1%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
BMNR-LC23-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	75	$15.57	$37.00	75 × $18 $825 cyc · $3,536/mo 90% surv · T:20%	69 × $17.50 $1,104 cyc · $4,731/mo 86% surv · T:28%	🎯 73 × $17 $1,679 cyc · $7,196/mo 80% surv · T:28%	68 × $16 $3,332 cyc · $14,280/mo 62% surv · T:79%	-	-$144,303 (0.0% IC)	137.5%
BMNR-LC23-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	150	$15.57	$20.91	150 × $18 $1,650 cyc · $7,071/mo 90% surv · T:20%	137 × $17.50 $2,192 cyc · $9,394/mo 86% surv · T:28%	🎯 145 × $17 $3,335 cyc · $14,293/mo 80% surv · T:28%	136 × $16 $6,664 cyc · $28,560/mo 62% surv · T:79%	-	-$53,294 (0.0% IC)	34.2%
BMNR-LC25 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	50	$15.57	$54.24	50 × $18 $550 cyc · $2,357/mo 90% surv · T:20%	46 × $17.50 $736 cyc · $3,154/mo 86% surv · T:28%	🎯 49 × $17 $1,127 cyc · $4,830/mo 80% surv · T:29%	46 × $16 $2,254 cyc · $9,660/mo 62% surv · T:79%	-	-$181,356 (191.8% IC)	248.3%
GLXY ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$22.59	$33.81	125 × $27 $2,250 cyc · $9,643/mo 91% surv · T:19%	92 × $25.50 $3,588 cyc · $15,377/mo 82% surv · T:36%	🎯 118 × $25 $5,428 cyc · $23,263/mo 79% surv · T:34%	103 × $23 $10,918 cyc · $46,791/mo 58% surv · T:89%	$1,754	-$98,487 (356.5% IC)	49.7%
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	200	$11.49	$18.13	200 × $13.50 $2,000 cyc · $8,571/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 172 × $13 $2,752 cyc · $11,794/mo 85% surv · T:36%	160 × $12.50 $4,160 cyc · $17,829/mo 77% surv · T:48%	139 × $11.50 $8,340 cyc · $35,743/mo 53% surv · T:99%	-	-$85,527 (1125.3% IC)	57.8%
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	50	$11.49	$19.06	50 × $13.50 $500 cyc · $2,143/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 43 × $13 $688 cyc · $2,949/mo 85% surv · T:36%	40 × $12.50 $1,040 cyc · $4,457/mo 77% surv · T:48%	35 × $11.50 $2,100 cyc · $9,000/mo 53% surv · T:99%	-	-$25,367 (117.2% IC)	65.9%
TOTAL (17)	1062	following every 🎯 $28,278 cyc · $121,191/mo		$14,908 cyc · $63,891/mo	$22,323 cyc · $95,670/mo	$33,991 cyc · $145,676/mo	$67,496 cyc · $289,269/mo	$8,255	-$821,192

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.26/sh	+$1,322 cycle +$1,872 [+$1,166…+$2,030] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$6,959 NOT cap gain +$15,791
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$385 cycle +$935 [+$48…+$946] · 78% credit	71% surv 60%	-$5,456 NOT cap gain +$17,294
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$291 cycle +$841 [-$339…+$912] · 62% credit	79% surv 74%	+$3,060 SAFE cap gain +$25,810
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.05/sh	-$259 cycle +$291 [-$988…+$308] · 34% credit	82% surv 78%	+$5,380 SAFE cap gain +$28,130
budget: banked $550 debit $259 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$291 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $3,350/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$550	$-8,281	+$14,470	+$3,350
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.7σ)	$-1,700	$-7,948	+$14,802	+$3,350
+5%	$18.90 (2.0σ)	$-3,950	$-7,614	+$15,136	+$3,350

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (46 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$1,252 cycle +$1,988 [+$957…+$1,574] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$9,736 NOT cap gain +$13,014
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$935 cycle +$1,671 [+$225…+$1,185] · 83% credit	77% surv 70%	-$2,444 NOT cap gain +$20,306
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$391 cycle +$1,127 [-$87…+$614] · 70% credit	71% surv 60%	-$8,328 NOT cap gain +$14,422
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$292 cycle +$1,028 [-$535…+$504] · 50% credit	79% surv 74%	-$417 NOT cap gain +$22,333
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$663 cycle +$73 [-$1,675…-$515] · 12% credit	84% surv 81%	+$3,968 SAFE cap gain +$26,718
budget: banked $736 debit $663 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$73 cash · rolled 46 ct earn ≈ $2,458/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$736	$-10,988	+$11,762	+$1,012
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.4σ)	$-1,276	$-10,665	+$12,085	+$1,012
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-3,289	$-10,341	+$12,409	+$1,012

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (49 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$1,368 cycle +$2,495 [+$979…+$1,553] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$12,032 NOT cap gain +$10,718
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,011 cycle +$2,138 [+$205…+$1,094] · 82% credit	77% surv 70%	-$4,351 NOT cap gain +$18,399
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$452 cycle +$1,579 [-$92…+$526] · 68% credit	71% surv 60%	-$10,550 NOT cap gain +$12,200
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$331 cycle +$1,458 [-$618…+$376] · 41% credit	79% surv 74%	-$2,211 NOT cap gain +$20,539
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.18/sh	-$873 cycle +$254 [-$2,080…-$901] · 5% credit	86% surv 84%	+$5,044 SAFE cap gain +$27,794
budget: banked $1,127 debit $873 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$254 cash · rolled 49 ct earn ≈ $2,309/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,127	$-13,400	+$9,351	-$1,029
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.1σ)	$-955	$-13,085	+$9,665	-$1,029
+5%	$17.85 (1.4σ)	$-3,038	$-12,770	+$9,980	-$1,029

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (46 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.29/sh	+$1,336 cycle +$3,590 [+$813…+$1,151] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$16,544 NOT cap gain +$6,206
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$962 cycle +$3,216 [-$126…+$603] · 69% credit	77% surv 70%	-$8,909 NOT cap gain +$13,841
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.10/sh	+$480 cycle +$2,734 [-$252…+$231] · 53% credit	72% surv 61%	-$14,961 NOT cap gain +$7,789
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$335 cycle +$2,589 [-$899…-$56] · 20% credit	80% surv 75%	-$6,866 NOT cap gain +$15,884
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.26/sh	-$1,204 cycle +$1,050 [-$2,873…-$1,753] · 0% credit	90% surv 89%	+$4,945 SAFE cap gain +$27,695
budget: banked $2,254 debit $1,204 (53% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,050 cash · rolled 46 ct earn ≈ $1,499/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,254	$-17,880	+$4,870	+$230
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$414	$-17,424	+$5,326	-$1,610
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,426	$-16,968	+$5,782	-$3,450
SS (= V-bounce)	$17.13 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,944	$-16,644	+$6,106	-$4,370

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (75 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.26/sh	+$1,982 cycle +$2,807 [+$1,581…+$2,857] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$149,166 NOT cap gain +$21,159
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$1,491 cycle +$2,316 [+$527…+$2,228] · 83% credit	76% surv 69%	-$138,874 NOT cap gain +$31,451
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$577 cycle +$1,402 [-$54…+$1,208] · 73% credit	71% surv 60%	-$147,356 NOT cap gain +$22,969
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$436 cycle +$1,261 [-$709…+$1,121] · 57% credit	79% surv 74%	-$136,145 NOT cap gain +$34,180
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.05/sh	-$389 cycle +$436 [-$1,701…+$265] · 31% credit	82% surv 78%	-$133,186 NOT cap gain +$37,139
budget: banked $825 debit $389 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$436 cash · rolled 75 ct earn ≈ $5,026/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$825	$-151,149	+$19,176	+$750
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.7σ)	$-2,550	$-151,118	+$19,207	-$2,625
+5%	$18.90 (2.0σ)	$-5,925	$-151,088	+$19,237	-$6,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-157,650	$-149,723	+$20,602	-$51,750

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (69 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$1,878 cycle +$2,982 [+$1,484…+$2,407] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$152,770 NOT cap gain +$17,555
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$1,402 cycle +$2,506 [+$436…+$1,924] · 85% credit	77% surv 70%	-$142,462 NOT cap gain +$27,863
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$587 cycle +$1,691 [-$49…+$1,025] · 73% credit	71% surv 60%	-$150,845 NOT cap gain +$19,480
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$438 cycle +$1,542 [-$703…+$901] · 50% credit	79% surv 74%	-$139,642 NOT cap gain +$30,683
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$994 cycle +$110 [-$2,459…-$673] · 13% credit	84% surv 81%	-$133,507 NOT cap gain +$36,818
budget: banked $1,104 debit $994 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 69 ct earn ≈ $3,687/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$1,104	$-154,648	+$15,677	+$1,035
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.4σ)	$-1,915	$-154,356	+$15,969	-$1,984
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-4,934	$-154,064	+$16,262	-$5,002
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-148,143	$-148,688	+$21,637	-$50,715

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (73 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$2,038 cycle +$3,717 [+$1,476…+$2,484] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$155,822 NOT cap gain +$14,503
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,506 cycle +$3,185 [+$303…+$1,728] · 83% credit	77% surv 70%	-$145,570 NOT cap gain +$24,755
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$674 cycle +$2,353 [-$137…+$888] · 68% credit	71% surv 60%	-$153,970 NOT cap gain +$16,355
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$494 cycle +$2,173 [-$904…+$670] · 43% credit	79% surv 74%	-$142,799 NOT cap gain +$27,526
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.18/sh	-$1,301 cycle +$378 [-$3,063…-$1,290] · 6% credit	86% surv 84%	-$133,243 NOT cap gain +$37,082
budget: banked $1,679 debit $1,301 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$378 cash · rolled 73 ct earn ≈ $3,440/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,679	$-157,860	+$12,465	+$1,606
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.1σ)	$-1,423	$-157,747	+$12,578	-$1,496
+5%	$17.85 (1.4σ)	$-4,526	$-157,633	+$12,692	-$4,599
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-159,870	$-154,767	+$15,558	-$56,794

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (68 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.29/sh	+$1,976 cycle +$5,308 [+$1,219…+$1,659] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$161,794 NOT cap gain +$8,531
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,423 cycle +$4,755 [-$142…+$850] · 70% credit	77% surv 70%	-$151,564 NOT cap gain +$18,761
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.10/sh	+$710 cycle +$4,042 [-$340…+$311] · 51% credit	72% surv 61%	-$159,844 NOT cap gain +$10,481
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$495 cycle +$3,827 [-$1,285…-$156] · 19% credit	80% surv 75%	-$148,708 NOT cap gain +$21,617
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.26/sh	-$1,781 cycle +$1,551 [-$4,214…-$2,632]	90% surv 89%	-$132,064 NOT cap gain +$38,261
budget: banked $3,332 debit $1,781 (53% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,551 cash · rolled 68 ct earn ≈ $2,216/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,332	$-163,770	+$6,555	+$3,264
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$612	$-163,463	+$6,862	+$544
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,108	$-163,156	+$7,169	-$2,176
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-153,952	$-155,909	+$14,416	-$57,936

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (150 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.26/sh	+$3,965 cycle +$5,615 [+$3,297…+$5,226] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$32,983 NOT cap gain +$42,317
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$2,982 cycle +$4,632 [+$1,242…+$4,258] · 85% credit	76% surv 69%	-$12,398 NOT cap gain +$62,902
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$1,154 cycle +$2,804 [-$4…+$2,255] · 75% credit	71% surv 60%	-$29,361 NOT cap gain +$45,939
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$873 cycle +$2,523 [-$1,175…+$2,058] · 54% credit	79% surv 74%	-$6,940 NOT cap gain +$68,360
SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.05/sh	-$778 cycle +$872 [-$3,093…+$384] · 29% credit	82% surv 78%	-$1,023 NOT cap gain +$74,277
budget: banked $1,650 debit $778 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$872 cash · rolled 150 ct earn ≈ $10,051/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$1,650	$-36,948	+$38,352	+$1,500
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.7σ)	$-5,100	$-36,887	+$38,413	-$5,250
+5%	$18.90 (2.0σ)	$-11,850	$-36,826	+$38,474	-$12,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-182,700	$-35,288	+$40,012	-$103,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (137 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$3,729 cycle +$5,921 [+$2,960…+$4,881] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$40,231 NOT cap gain +$35,069
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$2,784 cycle +$4,976 [+$913…+$3,915] · 85% credit	77% surv 70%	-$19,609 NOT cap gain +$55,691
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$1,165 cycle +$3,357 [-$59…+$2,088] · 73% credit	71% surv 60%	-$36,363 NOT cap gain +$38,937
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$869 cycle +$3,061 [-$1,289…+$1,914] · 53% credit	79% surv 74%	-$13,956 NOT cap gain +$61,344
SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$1,974 cycle +$218 [-$4,757…-$1,007] · 15% credit	84% surv 81%	-$1,664 NOT cap gain +$73,636
budget: banked $2,192 debit $1,974 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$218 cash · rolled 137 ct earn ≈ $7,321/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 23 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 1 watch · 1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

META

Main:1299

3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)

$662.60

$653.94

$53.75

$20.58

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

SPY

Neville:0865

12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (4d)

$748.83

$764.39

$0.11

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (0d)

$74.54

$81.90

$0.05

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$364.89

$378.34

$1.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$206.37

$219.51

$1.33

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$328.43

$355.09

$6.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

APP

RetireInc:7291

1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$437.50

$486.90

$5.20

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR

RetireInc:7291

4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$95.03

$106.34

$1.44

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RIOT

Joint:1782

50x $21.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$18.93

$21.78

$0.24

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$131.62

$151.58

$1.17

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$73.46

$84.96

$0.95

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$161.82

$188.61

$0.85

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HIMS

Main:1299

15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$33.88

$41.03

$0.58

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC45

Neville:0865

20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$35.42

$42.67

$0.64

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC50

RetireInc:7291

20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$35.42

$42.67

$0.64

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$96.35

$124.00

$1.23

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$35.42

$48.42

$0.16

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)

$35.42

$48.44

$0.16

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)

$353.75

$385.01

$8.03

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $390C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)

$353.75

$397.40

$3.30

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)

$251.37

$283.10

$2.26

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC145

RetireInc:7291

3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)

$161.82

$193.34

$3.20

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SOFI

RetireInc:7291

35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)

$17.38

$23.27

$0.08

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
NOW ↗	Main:1299	10	$104.23	$112.76	8.2%	$117 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 84% surv	33%	$2,430	$10,414/mo (65%)	$16,007/mo	sell 10x $117 CC
MU-LC880 ↗	Main:1299	5	$847.80	$1,056.55	24.6%	$1060 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · 82% surv	38%	$14,100	$15,107/mo (20%)	$76,286/mo	sell 5x $1060 CC
IGV ↗	Main:1299	12	$93.56	$86.79	0.0%	$97.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv	39%	$660	$2,829/mo (42%)	$6,789/mo	sell 12x $97.50 CC
DELL ↗	RetireInc:7291	3	$394.58	$409.77	3.8%	$435 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv	39%	$1,860	$7,971/mo (47%)	$16,875/mo	sell 3x $435 CC
GOOG-LC340 ↗	Neville:0865	5	$353.52	$374.77	6.0%	$377.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 80% surv	40%	$1,950	$8,357/mo (57%)	$14,598/mo	sell 5x $377.50 CC
MARA-LC40 ↗	Main:1299	200	$11.49	$13.86	20.7%	$14 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · 81% surv	42%	$9,600	$10,286/mo (29%)	$35,571/mo	sell 200x $14 CC

CAPPED: 22 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $188C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $390C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
MSTR	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
RIOT	Joint:1782	50	$23.65	50x $22C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$15.75	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (4d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 327 of 1429 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	14	58%	57%	-1pp
60-70%	46	64%	72%	+8pp
70-80%	61	77%	95%	+18pp
80-90%	76	85%	99%	+14pp
90-100%	130	95%	100%	+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 35% avg vs realized 24% touch rate over 327 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 56 real buyback(s) recorded · 13 roll(s), net +$1.01/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-17 03:39

Gross FIGHT income	$2,357/mo
vs 50% target ($4,741/mo)	-50%
vs normal income ($9,482/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,800/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,299
… as % of IC ($31,250)	23.4%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	10.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)	$-22,775

Gross FIGHT income	$3,154/mo
vs 50% target ($4,741/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($9,482/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,974/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,785
… as % of IC ($31,250)	28.1%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	12.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-20,976

Gross FIGHT income	$4,830/mo
vs 50% target ($4,741/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($9,482/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,367/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,465
… as % of IC ($31,250)	36.7%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	16.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (49 ct)	$-22,393

Gross FIGHT income	$9,660/mo
vs 50% target ($4,741/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($9,482/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,480/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,167
… as % of IC ($31,250)	45.3%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	19.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-21,068

Gross FIGHT income	$3,536/mo
vs 50% target ($7,112/mo)	-50%
vs normal income ($14,223/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,536/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$141,657
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	186.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.0 mo
Surgical close (75 ct)	$-170,362

Gross FIGHT income	$4,731/mo
vs 50% target ($7,112/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($14,223/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,744/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$133,429
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	175.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.4 mo
Surgical close (69 ct)	$-156,768

Gross FIGHT income	$7,196/mo
vs 50% target ($7,112/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($14,223/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,200/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$144,303
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	190.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.1 mo
Surgical close (73 ct)	$-165,929

Gross FIGHT income	$14,280/mo
vs 50% target ($7,112/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($14,223/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,295/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$139,452
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	183.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.8 mo
Surgical close (68 ct)	$-154,632

Gross FIGHT income	$7,071/mo
vs 50% target ($14,223/mo)	-50%
vs normal income ($28,446/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,071/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,932
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	26.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (150 ct)	$-75,375

Gross FIGHT income	$9,394/mo
vs 50% target ($14,223/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($28,446/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,422/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,463
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	28.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (137 ct)	$-68,911

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$2,192	$-43,960	+$31,340	+$2,055
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.4σ)	$-3,802	$-43,332	+$31,968	-$3,939
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-9,796	$-42,705	+$32,596	-$9,932
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-173,031	$-32,483	+$42,817	-$100,695

Gross FIGHT income	$14,293/mo
vs 50% target ($14,223/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($28,446/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,304/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$53,294
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	33.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (145 ct)	$-73,080

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,335	$-50,393	+$24,907	+$3,190
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.1σ)	$-2,827	$-50,123	+$25,177	-$2,972
+5%	$17.85 (1.4σ)	$-8,990	$-49,853	+$25,447	-$9,135
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-189,370	$-44,598	+$30,702	-$112,810

Gross FIGHT income	$28,560/mo
vs 50% target ($14,223/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($28,446/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$28,590/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$60,050
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	38.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (136 ct)	$-68,680

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,664	$-62,190	+$13,110	+$6,528
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,224	$-61,576	+$13,724	+$1,088
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-4,216	$-60,962	+$14,338	-$4,352
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-187,680	$-47,660	+$27,640	-$115,872

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$180,657
… as % of IC ($94,550)	191.1%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	73.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	19.1 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)	$-196,450

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$168,274
… as % of IC ($94,550)	178.0%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	68.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	17.7 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-180,757

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$181,356
… as % of IC ($94,550)	191.8%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	74.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	19.1 mo
Surgical close (49 ct)	$-192,594

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$173,656
… as % of IC ($94,550)	183.7%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	71.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	18.3 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-180,849

Gross FIGHT income	$1,179/mo
vs 50% target ($2,518/mo)	-53%
vs normal income ($5,036/mo)	23% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,179/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,122
… as % of IC ($9,350)	44.1%
… as % of ML ($26,850)	15.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-8,900

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $15-15.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $15.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$15.50 (1.5σ)	$275	$-3,448	+$5,402	+$225
+2.5%	$15.89 (1.7σ)	$-694	$-3,626	+$5,224	-$744
+5%	$16.28 (1.9σ)	$-1,663	$-3,803	+$5,047	-$1,713
SS (= V-bounce)	$20.74 (4.5σ)	$-12,825	$-5,846	+$3,004	-$11,025