FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

45 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 16 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 7 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 22 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $138,647/mo (51% of normal target)

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	50	$15.57	$19.40	50 × $18 $550 cyc · $2,357/mo 90% surv · T:20%	46 × $17.50 $736 cyc · $3,154/mo 86% surv · T:28%	🎯 49 × $17 $1,127 cyc · $4,830/mo 80% surv · T:29%	46 × $16 $2,254 cyc · $9,660/mo 62% surv · T:79%	-	-$10,610 (34.0% IC)	24.5%
COIN-LC165 ↗⚡ER 14d Main:1299 · Next Fri	8	$161.63	$211.00	8 × $187.50 $568 cyc · $2,434/mo 93% surv · T:14%	🎯 8 × $177.50 $1,536 cyc · $6,583/mo 80% surv · T:44%	8 × $172.50 $2,336 cyc · $10,011/mo 73% surv · T:56%	7 × $162.50 $4,515 cyc · $19,350/mo 54% surv · T:96%	$1,352	-$25,264 (188.0% IC)	30.5%
COPX ↗ ⚐ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	1	$74.45	$91.96	1 × $81.50 $15 cyc · $64/mo 92% surv · T:15%	🎯 1 × $79 $45 cyc · $193/mo 83% surv · T:34%	1 × $78 $65 cyc · $279/mo 78% surv · T:45%	1 × $75 $160 cyc · $686/mo 56% surv · T:90%	$35	-$1,251 (44.1% IC)	23.5%
ENPH ↗⚡ER 12d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	10	$41.34	$56.37	10 × $48.50 $210 cyc · $900/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯 10 × $45.50 $630 cyc · $2,700/mo 80% surv · T:53%	10 × $44 $920 cyc · $3,943/mo 72% surv · T:58%	9 × $41 $1,899 cyc · $8,139/mo 51% surv · T:99+%	$806	-$10,243 (140.3% IC)	36.4%
ETHA ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	50	$14.13	$17.58	50 × $15.50 $250 cyc · $1,071/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯 39 × $15 $390 cyc · $1,671/mo 83% surv · T:52%	26 × $14.50 $598 cyc · $2,563/mo 67% surv · T:68%	26 × $14 $1,170 cyc · $5,014/mo 45% surv · T:99+%	-	-$9,690 (44.8% IC)	24.4%
MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 12d Main:1299 · Next Fri	200	$11.49	$40.55	200 × $13.50 $2,000 cyc · $8,571/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 172 × $13 $2,752 cyc · $11,794/mo 85% surv · T:36%	160 × $12.50 $4,160 cyc · $17,829/mo 77% surv · T:48%	139 × $11.50 $8,340 cyc · $35,743/mo 53% surv · T:99%	-	-$471,108 (4282.8% IC)	252.9%
MU-LC970 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	2	$847.80	$1,187.76	2 × $1005 $1,730 cyc · $7,414/mo 90% surv · T:20%	2 × $980 $2,370 cyc · $10,157/mo 87% surv · T:28%	🎯 2 × $945 $3,610 cyc · $15,471/mo 80% surv · T:31%	2 × $885 $7,210 cyc · $30,900/mo 65% surv · T:75%	$2,449	-$44,942 (89.9% IC)	40.1%
NEM ↗⚡ER 7d Main:1299 · Next Fri	5	$90.93	$114.71	5 × $101 $230 cyc · $986/mo 90% surv · T:20%	5 × $99 $345 cyc · $1,479/mo 90% surv · T:21%	🎯⚡ 5 × $97 $520 cyc · $2,229/mo 83% surv · T:25%	5 × $94 $925 cyc · $3,964/mo 70% surv · T:62%	$408	-$8,336 (61.7% IC)	26.2%
QCOM ↗⚡ER 13d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	5	$170.63	$220.88	5 × $192.50 $445 cyc · $1,907/mo 91% surv · T:19%	🎯 5 × $185 $895 cyc · $3,836/mo 82% surv · T:41%	5 × $180 $1,430 cyc · $6,129/mo 74% surv · T:54%	5 × $172.50 $2,675 cyc · $11,464/mo 57% surv · T:90%	$1,446	-$17,044 (100.3% IC)	29.4%
RKLB ↗⚡ER 21d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	6	$67.17	$139.63	6 × $79 $360 cyc · $1,543/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 6 × $77 $492 cyc · $2,109/mo 87% surv · T:32%	6 × $74 $816 cyc · $3,497/mo 79% surv · T:43%	6 × $70 $1,476 cyc · $6,326/mo 65% surv · T:73%	-	-$37,085 (232.8% IC)	107.9%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
BMNR-LC23-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	75	$15.57	$39.13	75 × $18 $825 cyc · $3,536/mo 90% surv · T:20%	69 × $17.50 $1,104 cyc · $4,731/mo 86% surv · T:28%	🎯 73 × $17 $1,679 cyc · $7,196/mo 80% surv · T:28%	68 × $16 $3,332 cyc · $14,280/mo 62% surv · T:79%	-	-$159,870 (0.0% IC)	151.2%
BMNR-LC23-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri	150	$15.57	$30.29	150 × $18 $1,650 cyc · $7,071/mo 90% surv · T:20%	137 × $17.50 $2,192 cyc · $9,394/mo 86% surv · T:28%	🎯 145 × $17 $3,335 cyc · $14,293/mo 80% surv · T:28%	136 × $16 $6,664 cyc · $28,560/mo 62% surv · T:79%	-	-$189,370 (0.0% IC)	94.5%
BMNR-LC25 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	50	$15.57	$59.30	50 × $18 $550 cyc · $2,357/mo 90% surv · T:20%	46 × $17.50 $736 cyc · $3,154/mo 86% surv · T:28%	🎯 49 × $17 $1,127 cyc · $4,830/mo 80% surv · T:29%	46 × $16 $2,254 cyc · $9,660/mo 62% surv · T:79%	-	-$206,129 (218.0% IC)	280.7%
GLXY ↗⚡ER 11d Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$22.59	$31.77	125 × $27 $2,250 cyc · $9,643/mo 91% surv · T:19%	92 × $25.50 $3,588 cyc · $15,377/mo 82% surv · T:36%	🎯 118 × $25 $5,428 cyc · $23,263/mo 79% surv · T:34%	103 × $23 $10,918 cyc · $46,791/mo 58% surv · T:89%	$1,754	-$74,481 (269.6% IC)	40.6%
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗⚡ER 12d Main:1299 · Next Fri	200	$11.49	$17.57	200 × $13.50 $2,000 cyc · $8,571/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 172 × $13 $2,752 cyc · $11,794/mo 85% surv · T:36%	160 × $12.50 $4,160 cyc · $17,829/mo 77% surv · T:48%	139 × $11.50 $8,340 cyc · $35,743/mo 53% surv · T:99%	-	-$75,874 (998.3% IC)	52.9%
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗⚡ER 12d Joint:1782 · Next Fri	50	$11.49	$18.80	50 × $13.50 $500 cyc · $2,143/mo 90% surv · T:20%	🎯 43 × $13 $688 cyc · $2,949/mo 85% surv · T:36%	40 × $12.50 $1,040 cyc · $4,457/mo 77% surv · T:48%	35 × $11.50 $2,100 cyc · $9,000/mo 53% surv · T:99%	-	-$24,251 (112.0% IC)	63.6%
TOTAL (16)	987	following every 🎯 $27,006 cyc · $115,740/mo		$14,133 cyc · $60,570/mo	$21,251 cyc · $91,076/mo	$32,351 cyc · $138,647/mo	$64,232 cyc · $275,280/mo	$8,249	-$1,365,550

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.26/sh	+$1,322 cycle +$1,872 [+$1,166…+$2,030] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$5,995 NOT cap gain +$15,755
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$385 cycle +$935 [+$48…+$946] · 78% credit	71% surv 60%	-$4,499 NOT cap gain +$17,251
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$291 cycle +$841 [-$339…+$912] · 62% credit	79% surv 74%	+$3,995 SAFE cap gain +$25,745
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.05/sh	-$259 cycle +$291 [-$988…+$308] · 34% credit	82% surv 78%	+$6,307 SAFE cap gain +$28,057
budget: banked $550 debit $259 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$291 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $3,350/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$550	$-7,317	+$14,433	+$3,350
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.7σ)	$-1,700	$-6,991	+$14,759	+$3,350
+5%	$18.90 (2.0σ)	$-3,950	$-6,664	+$15,086	+$3,350

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (46 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$1,252 cycle +$1,988 [+$957…+$1,574] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$8,765 NOT cap gain +$12,985
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$935 cycle +$1,671 [+$225…+$1,185] · 83% credit	77% surv 70%	-$1,495 NOT cap gain +$20,255
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$391 cycle +$1,127 [-$87…+$614] · 70% credit	71% surv 60%	-$7,363 NOT cap gain +$14,387
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$292 cycle +$1,028 [-$535…+$504] · 50% credit	79% surv 74%	+$525 SAFE cap gain +$22,275
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$663 cycle +$73 [-$1,675…-$515] · 12% credit	84% surv 81%	+$4,895 SAFE cap gain +$26,645
budget: banked $736 debit $663 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$73 cash · rolled 46 ct earn ≈ $2,458/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$736	$-10,017	+$11,733	+$1,012
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.4σ)	$-1,276	$-9,700	+$12,050	+$1,012
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-3,289	$-9,383	+$12,367	+$1,012

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (49 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$1,368 cycle +$2,495 [+$979…+$1,553] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$11,053 NOT cap gain +$10,697
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,011 cycle +$2,138 [+$205…+$1,094] · 82% credit	77% surv 70%	-$3,394 NOT cap gain +$18,356
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$452 cycle +$1,579 [-$92…+$526] · 68% credit	71% surv 60%	-$9,578 NOT cap gain +$12,172
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$331 cycle +$1,458 [-$618…+$376] · 41% credit	79% surv 74%	-$1,261 NOT cap gain +$20,489
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.18/sh	-$873 cycle +$254 [-$2,080…-$901] · 5% credit	86% surv 84%	+$5,971 SAFE cap gain +$27,721
budget: banked $1,127 debit $873 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$254 cash · rolled 49 ct earn ≈ $2,309/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,127	$-12,421	+$9,329	-$1,029
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.1σ)	$-955	$-12,113	+$9,637	-$1,029
+5%	$17.85 (1.4σ)	$-3,038	$-11,805	+$9,945	-$1,029

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (46 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.29/sh	+$1,336 cycle +$3,590 [+$813…+$1,151] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	-$15,551 NOT cap gain +$6,199
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$962 cycle +$3,216 [-$126…+$603] · 69% credit	77% surv 70%	-$7,936 NOT cap gain +$13,814
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.10/sh	+$480 cycle +$2,734 [-$252…+$231] · 53% credit	72% surv 61%	-$13,974 NOT cap gain +$7,776
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$335 cycle +$2,589 [-$899…-$56] · 20% credit	80% surv 75%	-$5,902 NOT cap gain +$15,848
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.26/sh	-$1,204 cycle +$1,050 [-$2,873…-$1,753] · 0% credit	90% surv 89%	+$5,872 SAFE cap gain +$27,622
budget: banked $2,254 debit $1,204 (53% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,050 cash · rolled 46 ct earn ≈ $1,499/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,254	$-16,887	+$4,863	+$230
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$414	$-16,437	+$5,313	-$1,610
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,426	$-15,987	+$5,763	-$3,450
SS (= V-bounce)	$17.13 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,944	$-15,668	+$6,082	-$4,370

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (75 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.26/sh	+$1,982 cycle +$2,807 [+$1,581…+$2,857] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	+$19,176 SAFE cap gain +$19,176
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$1,491 cycle +$2,316 [+$527…+$2,228] · 83% credit	76% surv 69%	+$28,303 SAFE cap gain +$28,303
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$577 cycle +$1,402 [-$54…+$1,208] · 73% credit	71% surv 60%	+$20,639 SAFE cap gain +$20,639
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$436 cycle +$1,261 [-$709…+$1,121] · 57% credit	79% surv 74%	+$30,624 SAFE cap gain +$30,624
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.05/sh	-$389 cycle +$436 [-$1,701…+$265] · 31% credit	82% surv 78%	+$33,174 SAFE cap gain +$33,174
budget: banked $825 debit $389 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$436 cash · rolled 75 ct earn ≈ $5,026/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$825	$17,194	+$17,194	+$750
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.7σ)	$-2,550	$16,856	+$16,856	-$2,625
+5%	$18.90 (2.0σ)	$-5,925	$16,519	+$16,519	-$6,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-157,650	$1,346	+$1,346	-$51,750

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (69 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$1,878 cycle +$2,982 [+$1,484…+$2,407] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	+$15,982 SAFE cap gain +$15,982
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$1,402 cycle +$2,506 [+$436…+$1,924] · 85% credit	77% surv 70%	+$25,124 SAFE cap gain +$25,124
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$587 cycle +$1,691 [-$49…+$1,025] · 73% credit	71% surv 60%	+$17,559 SAFE cap gain +$17,559
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$438 cycle +$1,542 [-$703…+$901] · 50% credit	79% surv 74%	+$27,535 SAFE cap gain +$27,535
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$994 cycle +$110 [-$2,459…-$673] · 13% credit	84% surv 81%	+$32,853 SAFE cap gain +$32,853
budget: banked $1,104 debit $994 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 69 ct earn ≈ $3,687/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$1,104	$14,104	+$14,104	+$1,035
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.4σ)	$-1,915	$14,038	+$14,038	-$1,984
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-4,934	$13,973	+$13,973	-$5,002
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-148,143	$2,381	+$2,381	-$50,715

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (73 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$2,038 cycle +$3,717 [+$1,476…+$2,484] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	+$13,338 SAFE cap gain +$13,338
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,506 cycle +$3,185 [+$303…+$1,728] · 83% credit	77% surv 70%	+$22,425 SAFE cap gain +$22,425
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$17	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$674 cycle +$2,353 [-$137…+$888] · 68% credit	71% surv 60%	+$14,842 SAFE cap gain +$14,842
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$494 cycle +$2,173 [-$904…+$670] · 43% credit	79% surv 74%	+$24,787 SAFE cap gain +$24,787
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.18/sh	-$1,301 cycle +$378 [-$3,063…-$1,290] · 6% credit	86% surv 84%	+$33,117 SAFE cap gain +$33,117
budget: banked $1,679 debit $1,301 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$378 cash · rolled 73 ct earn ≈ $3,440/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,679	$11,300	+$11,300	+$1,606
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.1σ)	$-1,423	$11,066	+$11,066	-$1,496
+5%	$17.85 (1.4σ)	$-4,526	$10,832	+$10,832	-$4,599
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-159,870	$-3,698	-$3,698	-$56,794

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (68 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.29/sh	+$1,976 cycle +$5,308 [+$1,219…+$1,659] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	+$8,183 SAFE cap gain +$8,183
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,423 cycle +$4,755 [-$142…+$850] · 70% credit	77% surv 70%	+$17,249 SAFE cap gain +$17,249
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.10/sh	+$710 cycle +$4,042 [-$340…+$311] · 51% credit	72% surv 61%	+$9,786 SAFE cap gain +$9,786
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$495 cycle +$3,827 [-$1,285…-$156] · 19% credit	80% surv 75%	+$19,696 SAFE cap gain +$19,696
SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.26/sh	-$1,781 cycle +$1,551 [-$4,214…-$2,632]	90% surv 89%	+$34,296 SAFE cap gain +$34,296
budget: banked $3,332 debit $1,781 (53% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,551 cash · rolled 68 ct earn ≈ $2,216/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $16-16.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $16.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,332	$6,208	+$6,208	+$3,264
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$612	$6,188	+$6,188	+$544
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,108	$6,168	+$6,168	-$2,176
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.13 (14.2σ)	$-153,952	$-4,840	-$4,840	-$57,936

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (150 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.26/sh	+$3,965 cycle +$5,615 [+$3,297…+$5,226] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	+$38,352 SAFE cap gain +$38,352
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$2,982 cycle +$4,632 [+$1,242…+$4,258] · 85% credit	76% surv 69%	+$56,607 SAFE cap gain +$56,607
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$1,154 cycle +$2,804 [-$4…+$2,255] · 75% credit	71% surv 60%	+$41,279 SAFE cap gain +$41,279
Max even-money escape in the band	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$873 cycle +$2,523 [-$1,175…+$2,058] · 54% credit	79% surv 74%	+$61,248 SAFE cap gain +$61,248
SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.05/sh	-$778 cycle +$872 [-$3,093…+$384] · 29% credit	82% surv 78%	+$66,347 SAFE cap gain +$66,347
budget: banked $1,650 debit $778 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$872 cash · rolled 150 ct earn ≈ $10,051/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $18-18.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $18.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$18.00 (1.5σ)	$1,650	$34,388	+$34,388	+$1,500
+2.5%	$18.45 (1.7σ)	$-5,100	$33,713	+$33,713	-$5,250
+5%	$18.90 (2.0σ)	$-11,850	$33,038	+$33,038	-$12,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-182,700	$15,952	+$15,952	-$103,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (137 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$3,729 cycle +$5,921 [+$2,960…+$4,881] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	+$31,921 SAFE cap gain +$31,921
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$2,784 cycle +$4,976 [+$913…+$3,915] · 85% credit	77% surv 70%	+$50,214 SAFE cap gain +$50,214
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$18	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$1,165 cycle +$3,357 [-$59…+$2,088] · 73% credit	71% surv 60%	+$35,095 SAFE cap gain +$35,095
Max even-money escape in the band	~$19	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$869 cycle +$3,061 [-$1,289…+$1,914] · 53% credit	79% surv 74%	+$55,049 SAFE cap gain +$55,049
SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$1,974 cycle +$218 [-$4,757…-$1,007] · 15% credit	84% surv 81%	+$65,706 SAFE cap gain +$65,706
budget: banked $2,192 debit $1,974 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$218 cash · rolled 137 ct earn ≈ $7,321/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $17-17.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $17.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 23 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 2 watch

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
META	Main:1299	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)	$662.60	$653.94	$67.61	$35.90	TRIPPED ▸	🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $31.71/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $35.90 is live theta (~$10,770). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs.
SPY	Neville:0865	12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (4d)	$747.29	$764.39	$0.34	$0.34	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.71 OTM. The $0.34 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$411 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $764.39 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , SPY is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run `fortress_fight.py --tickers SPY`.
GLD	Main:1299	10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$365.84	$378.34	$3.14	$3.14	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.16 OTM. The $3.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,292 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $378.34 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , GLD is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run `fortress_fight.py --tickers GLD`.
COPX	Joint:1782	19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (0d)	$74.00	$81.90	$0.18	$0.18	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.50 OTM. The $0.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$665 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $81.09 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
NVDA	Neville:0865	5x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$204.65	$219.51	$3.22	$3.22	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.85 OTM. The $3.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$978 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $219.51 (breakeven).
MDB	Neville:0865	1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$327.86	$355.09	$8.42	$8.42	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 22.14 OTM. The $8.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$504 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $355.09 (breakeven).
APP	RetireInc:7291	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$434.65	$486.90	$11.07	$11.07	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 45.35 OTM. The $11.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$685 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $486.90 (breakeven).
MSTR	RetireInc:7291	4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$92.63	$106.34	$2.38	$2.38	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.37 OTM. The $2.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$517 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $106.34 (breakeven).
RIOT	Joint:1782	50x $21.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$18.58	$21.78	$0.67	$0.67	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.92 OTM. The $0.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,150 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $21.78 (breakeven).
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$158.93	$188.61	$1.96	$1.96	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.57 OTM. The $1.96 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,641 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $188.61 (breakeven).
CRWV	Neville:0865	5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$71.16	$84.96	$1.99	$1.99	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.84 OTM. The $1.99 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.96 (breakeven).
SPCX	Neville:0865	5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$126.45	$151.58	$1.58	$1.58	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.55 OTM. The $1.58 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$766 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $151.58 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$33.16	$41.03	$1.58	$1.58	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.84 OTM. The $1.58 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,473 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $41.03 (breakeven).
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$34.05	$42.67	$1.45	$1.45	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.95 OTM. The $1.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven).
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$34.05	$42.67	$1.45	$1.45	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.95 OTM. The $1.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven).
INTC	Neville:0865	5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$94.01	$124.00	$2.50	$2.50	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 26.99 OTM. The $2.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,475 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.00 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$34.05	$48.42	$0.40	$0.40	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.95 OTM. The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$746 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.42 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)	$34.05	$48.44	$0.40	$0.40	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.95 OTM. The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$786 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.44 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)	$352.90	$385.01	$14.85	$14.85	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.10 OTM. The $14.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$22,444 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $385.01 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5x $390C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)	$352.90	$397.40	$6.95	$6.95	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 37.10 OTM. The $6.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,675 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $397.40 (breakeven).
AMZN	Joint:1782	10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)	$249.14	$283.10	$2.88	$2.88	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 30.86 OTM. The $2.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,048 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $283.10 (breakeven).
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)	$158.93	$193.34	$3.97	$3.97	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.07 OTM. The $3.97 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$988 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $193.34 (breakeven).
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)	$17.22	$23.27	$0.11	$0.11	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.78 OTM. The $0.11 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$770 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.27 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
NOW ↗⚡ER 6d	Main:1299	10	$104.23	$110.79	6.3%	$117 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 84% surv	33%	$2,430	$10,414/mo (65%)	$16,007/mo	sell 10x $117 CC
MU-LC880 ↗	Main:1299	5	$847.80	$997.83	17.7%	$1000 31 Jul 2026 (14d) · 82% surv	37%	$11,550	$24,750/mo (32%)	$76,286/mo	sell 5x $1000 CC
IGV ↗	Main:1299	12	$93.56	$86.43	0.0%	$97.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv	39%	$660	$2,829/mo (42%)	$6,789/mo	sell 12x $97.50 CC
DELL ↗	RetireInc:7291	3	$394.58	$391.32	0.0%	$435 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv	39%	$1,860	$7,971/mo (47%)	$16,875/mo	sell 3x $435 CC
GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER 6d	Neville:0865	5	$353.52	$358.58	1.4%	$377.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 80% surv	40%	$1,950	$8,357/mo (57%)	$14,598/mo	sell 5x $377.50 CC
CLSK ↗⚡ER 21d	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.99	$15.62	20.3%	$16 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · 81% surv	41%	$1,250	$1,339/mo (27%)	$5,036/mo	sell 25x $16 CC
MARA-LC25 ↗⚡ER 12d	Neville:0865	250	$11.49	$13.94	21.3%	$14 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · 81% surv	42%	$12,000	$12,857/mo (29%)	$44,464/mo	sell 250x $14 CC

CAPPED: 22 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $188C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $390C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
MSTR	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
RIOT	Joint:1782	50	$23.65	50x $22C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$15.75	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (14d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (4d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 327 of 1429 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	14	58%	57%	-1pp
60-70%	46	64%	72%	+8pp
70-80%	61	77%	95%	+18pp
80-90%	76	85%	99%	+14pp
90-100%	130	95%	100%	+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 35% avg vs realized 24% touch rate over 327 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 56 real buyback(s) recorded · 13 roll(s), net +$1.01/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-17 09:48

Gross FIGHT income	$2,357/mo
vs 50% target ($4,741/mo)	-50%
vs normal income ($9,482/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,800/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,426
… as % of IC ($31,250)	20.6%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	9.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)	$-21,775

Gross FIGHT income	$3,154/mo
vs 50% target ($4,741/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($9,482/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,974/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,982
… as % of IC ($31,250)	25.5%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	11.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-20,056

Gross FIGHT income	$4,830/mo
vs 50% target ($4,741/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($9,482/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,367/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,610
… as % of IC ($31,250)	34.0%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	14.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (49 ct)	$-21,413

Gross FIGHT income	$9,660/mo
vs 50% target ($4,741/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($9,482/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,480/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,364
… as % of IC ($31,250)	42.8%
… as % of ML ($71,250)	18.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-20,148

Gross FIGHT income	$3,536/mo
vs 50% target ($7,112/mo)	-50%
vs normal income ($14,223/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,536/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$157,650
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	207.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.1 mo
Surgical close (75 ct)	$-37

Gross FIGHT income	$4,731/mo
vs 50% target ($7,112/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($14,223/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,744/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$148,143
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	195.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.4 mo
Surgical close (69 ct)	$-69

Gross FIGHT income	$7,196/mo
vs 50% target ($7,112/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($14,223/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,200/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$159,870
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	210.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.2 mo
Surgical close (73 ct)	$-146

Gross FIGHT income	$14,280/mo
vs 50% target ($7,112/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($14,223/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,295/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$153,952
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($75,959)	202.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.8 mo
Surgical close (68 ct)	$-204

Gross FIGHT income	$7,071/mo
vs 50% target ($14,223/mo)	-50%
vs normal income ($28,446/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,071/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$182,700
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	116.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.4 mo
Surgical close (150 ct)	$-75

Gross FIGHT income	$9,394/mo
vs 50% target ($14,223/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($28,446/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,422/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$173,031
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	110.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.1 mo
Surgical close (137 ct)	$-137

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.50 (1.2σ)	$2,192	$28,193	+$28,193	+$2,055
+2.5%	$17.94 (1.4σ)	$-3,802	$28,105	+$28,105	-$3,939
+5%	$18.38 (1.7σ)	$-9,796	$28,018	+$28,018	-$9,932
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-173,031	$18,758	+$18,758	-$100,695

Gross FIGHT income	$14,293/mo
vs 50% target ($14,223/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($28,446/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,304/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$189,370
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	120.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.7 mo
Surgical close (145 ct)	$-290

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$17.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,335	$22,578	+$22,578	+$3,190
+2.5%	$17.42 (1.1σ)	$-2,827	$22,153	+$22,153	-$2,972
+5%	$17.85 (1.4σ)	$-8,990	$21,728	+$21,728	-$9,135
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-189,370	$6,642	+$6,642	-$112,810

Gross FIGHT income	$28,560/mo
vs 50% target ($14,223/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($28,446/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$28,590/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$187,680
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($157,060)	119.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.6 mo
Surgical close (136 ct)	$-408

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,664	$12,416	+$12,416	+$6,528
+2.5%	$16.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,224	$12,376	+$12,376	+$1,088
+5%	$16.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-4,216	$12,336	+$12,336	-$4,352
SS (= V-bounce)	$30.29 (8.9σ)	$-187,680	$3,581	+$3,581	-$115,872

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$205,936
… as % of IC ($94,550)	217.8%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	84.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	21.7 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)	$-196,775

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$191,531
… as % of IC ($94,550)	202.6%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	78.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	20.2 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-181,056

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$206,129
… as % of IC ($94,550)	218.0%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	84.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	21.7 mo
Surgical close (49 ct)	$-192,913

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$196,913
… as % of IC ($94,550)	208.3%
… as % of ML ($244,550)	80.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	20.8 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)	$-181,148

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$188	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$5.92/sh	+$4,733 cycle +$5,301 [+$4,947…+$5,943] · 100% credit	69% surv 53%	-$15,308 NOT cap gain +$28,956
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$213	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.38/sh	+$1,108 cycle +$1,676 [+$505…+$2,314] · 88% credit	80% surv 75%	+$4,723 SAFE cap gain +$48,987
Max even-money escape in the band	~$221	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.11/sh	+$88 cycle +$656 [-$640…+$1,177] · 52% credit	83% surv 80%	+$10,562 SAFE cap gain +$54,826
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$203	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$75 cycle +$643 [-$415…+$669] · 51% credit	79% surv 72%	-$5,454 NOT cap gain +$38,810
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$226	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.64/sh	-$515 cycle +$53 [-$1,322…+$511] · 37% credit	85% surv 83%	+$14,530 SAFE cap gain +$58,794
budget: banked $568 debit $515 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $5,762/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Gross FIGHT income	$2,434/mo
vs 50% target ($9,429/mo)	-74%
vs normal income ($18,857/mo)	13% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,023/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$18,232
… as % of IC ($13,440)	135.7%
… as % of ML ($137,440)	13.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-44,380

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $185.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $186-188.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $188.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.