FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $129,280/mo (51% of normal target)
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| ENPH ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 10 | $43.90 | $58.80 | 10 × $47 $1,090 cyc · $4,088/mo 91% surv · T:18% | 9 × $48.50 $720 cyc · $2,700/mo 97% surv · T:5% | 🎯 10 × $47.50 $1,050 cyc · $3,938/mo 94% surv · T:8% | — | $806 | -$10,250 (140.4% IC) | 33.9% |
| NEM ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 5 | $94.56 | $118.04 | 5 × $104 $300 cyc · $1,125/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 5 × $103 $435 cyc · $1,631/mo 88% surv · T:24% | 🎯 5 × $101 $635 cyc · $2,381/mo 82% surv · T:27% | 5 × $97 $1,280 cyc · $4,800/mo 65% surv · T:72% | $408 | -$7,885 (58.3% IC) | 24.8% |
| RKLB ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 6 | $75.01 | $147.06 | 6 × $90 $384 cyc · $1,440/mo 91% surv · T:18% | 🎯 6 × $87 $600 cyc · $2,250/mo 87% surv · T:34% | 5 × $83 $875 cyc · $3,281/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 6 × $79 $1,764 cyc · $6,615/mo 67% surv · T:70% | - | -$35,435 (222.4% IC) | 96.1% |
| CRWV ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $76.20 | $128.88 | 5 × $90 $418 cyc · $1,568/mo 90% surv · T:20% | 5 × $88 $551 cyc · $2,066/mo 87% surv · T:27% | 🎯 5 × $85 $841 cyc · $3,153/mo 81% surv · T:30% | 5 × $79 $1,750 cyc · $6,562/mo 63% surv · T:78% | $1,311 | -$21,098 (206.3% IC) | 69.1% |
| BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 50 | $15.59 | $19.41 | 50 × $18.50 $600 cyc · $2,250/mo 92% surv · T:17% | 🎯 39 × $17.50 $975 cyc · $3,656/mo 85% surv · T:34% | 42 × $17 $1,470 cyc · $5,512/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 44 × $16 $2,992 cyc · $11,220/mo 61% surv · T:82% | - | -$6,466 (20.7% IC) | 24.5% |
| MU-LC970 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 2 | $887.98 | $1,227.92 | 2 × $1065 $2,350 cyc · $8,812/mo 90% surv · T:21% | 2 × $1040 $3,100 cyc · $11,625/mo 87% surv · T:27% | 🎯 2 × $1000 $4,790 cyc · $17,962/mo 81% surv · T:32% | 2 × $925 $9,760 cyc · $36,600/mo 63% surv · T:78% | $2,449 | -$40,795 (81.6% IC) | 38.3% |
| MSTR ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 4 | $96.15 | $167.33 | 4 × $113 $352 cyc · $1,320/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 4 × $109 $572 cyc · $2,145/mo 86% surv · T:30% | 🎯 4 × $106 $812 cyc · $3,045/mo 80% surv · T:33% | 4 × $99 $1,680 cyc · $6,300/mo 62% surv · T:80% | - | -$23,722 (494.2% IC) | 74.0% |
| COPX ↗ ⚐ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 1 | $77.07 | $94.33 | 1 × $84.50 $10 cyc · $38/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 1 × $81.50 $50 cyc · $188/mo 80% surv · T:41% | 🎯 1 × $80.50 $80 cyc · $300/mo 75% surv · T:39% | 1 × $78 $175 cyc · $656/mo 58% surv · T:86% | $35 | -$1,303 (45.9% IC) | 22.4% |
| MDB ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 1 | $333.00 | $380.73 | 1 × $380 $236 cyc · $883/mo 91% surv · T:18% | 🎯 1 × $362.50 $430 cyc · $1,612/mo 81% surv · T:44% | 1 × $352.50 $655 cyc · $2,456/mo 73% surv · T:57% | 1 × $340 $1,070 cyc · $4,012/mo 60% surv · T:83% | - | -$1,393 (15.0% IC) | 14.3% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | ||||||||||
| MARA-LC20-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 50 | $12.09 | $19.39 | 50 × $14.50 $600 cyc · $2,250/mo 92% surv · T:17% | 32 × $13.50 $832 cyc · $3,120/mo 82% surv · T:38% | 🎯 49 × $13.50 $1,274 cyc · $4,778/mo 82% surv · T:27% | 43 × $12.50 $2,537 cyc · $9,514/mo 63% surv · T:79% | - | -$27,568 (127.3% IC) | 60.3% |
| COIN-LC500 ↗ ⚐ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 17 | $164.97 | $332.59 | 17 × $190 $2,652 cyc · $9,945/mo 90% surv · T:20% | 🎯 16 × $185 $3,648 cyc · $13,680/mo 86% surv · T:31% | 17 × $180 $5,695 cyc · $21,356/mo 80% surv · T:42% | 17 × $170 $11,220 cyc · $42,075/mo 63% surv · T:77% | - | -$232,499 (217.1% IC) | 101.6% |
| MARA-LC20-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 200 | $12.09 | $18.53 | 200 × $14.50 $2,400 cyc · $9,000/mo 92% surv · T:17% | 128 × $13.50 $3,328 cyc · $12,480/mo 82% surv · T:38% | 🎯 193 × $13.50 $5,018 cyc · $18,818/mo 82% surv · T:29% | 170 × $12.50 $10,030 cyc · $37,612/mo 63% surv · T:79% | - | -$92,131 (1212.2% IC) | 53.3% |
| GLXY ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 125 | $24.50 | $33.57 | 125 × $30 $1,625 cyc · $6,094/mo 92% surv · T:16% | 84 × $29 $2,100 cyc · $7,875/mo 89% surv · T:23% | 🎯 71 × $27.50 $3,195 cyc · $11,981/mo 80% surv · T:30% | 112 × $26.50 $6,384 cyc · $23,940/mo 73% surv · T:57% | $1,754 | -$39,874 (144.3% IC) | 37.0% |
| BMNR-LC25 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 50 | $15.59 | $59.31 | 50 × $18.50 $600 cyc · $2,250/mo 92% surv · T:17% | 🎯 39 × $17.50 $975 cyc · $3,656/mo 85% surv · T:34% | 42 × $17 $1,470 cyc · $5,512/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 44 × $16 $2,992 cyc · $11,220/mo 61% surv · T:82% | - | -$162,093 (171.4% IC) | 280.5% |
| BMNR-LC23-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 75 | $15.59 | $39.75 | 75 × $18.50 $900 cyc · $3,375/mo 92% surv · T:17% | 🎯 59 × $17.50 $1,475 cyc · $5,531/mo 85% surv · T:36% | 63 × $17 $2,205 cyc · $8,269/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 65 × $16 $4,420 cyc · $16,575/mo 61% surv · T:82% | - | -$129,781 (0.0% IC) | 155.0% |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 150 | $15.59 | $21.35 | 150 × $18.50 $1,800 cyc · $6,750/mo 92% surv · T:17% | 🎯 117 × $17.50 $2,925 cyc · $10,969/mo 85% surv · T:34% | 126 × $17 $4,410 cyc · $16,538/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 130 × $16 $8,840 cyc · $33,150/mo 61% surv · T:82% | - | -$42,076 (0.0% IC) | 36.9% |
| TOTAL (16) | 751 | following every 🎯 $28,723 cyc · $107,710/mo | $16,317 cyc · $61,187/mo | $22,716 cyc · $85,185/mo | $34,475 cyc · $129,280/mo | $66,894 cyc · $250,852/mo 15 of 16 | $6,762 | -$874,367 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$47 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$19 cycle +$1,109 [-$940…+$724] · 43% credit | 88% surv 53% | -$11,570 NOT cap gain +$4,700 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.55/sh | -$545 cycle +$545 [-$1,556…+$44] · 27% credit | 90% surv 64% | -$11,013 NOT cap gain +$5,257 |
| budget: banked $1,090 debit $545 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$545 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,634/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$0.78/sh | -$782 cycle +$308 [-$1,691…-$156] · 22% credit | 88% surv 51% | -$12,484 NOT cap gain +$3,786 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,088/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,088/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,710 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 146.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 22.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-16,510 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-48.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (1.4σ) | $1,090 | $-11,702 | +$4,568 | +$430 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (1.9σ) | $-85 | $-11,558 | +$4,712 | -$745 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.4σ) | $-1,260 | $-11,415 | +$4,855 | -$1,920 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.4σ) | $-8,060 | $-10,585 | +$5,685 | -$8,570 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$49 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.15/sh | -$139 cycle +$581 [-$488…+$1,132] · 62% credit | 88% surv 53% | -$10,350 NOT cap gain +$5,920 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.73/sh | -$658 cycle +$62 [-$1,133…+$488] · 46% credit | 90% surv 64% | -$9,747 NOT cap gain +$6,523 |
| budget: banked $720 debit $658 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $4,979/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$0.94/sh | -$850 cycle -$130 [-$1,218…+$307] · 39% credit | 88% surv 51% | -$11,173 NOT cap gain +$5,097 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,832/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,550 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 117.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 18.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-15,048 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-49.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.50 (2.0σ) | $720 | $-10,323 | +$5,947 | +$126 |
| +2.5% | $49.71 (2.6σ) | $-371 | $-10,054 | +$6,216 | -$965 |
| +5% | $50.93 (3.1σ) | $-1,463 | $-9,784 | +$6,486 | -$2,057 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.4σ) | $-6,165 | $-8,639 | +$7,631 | -$6,624 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.61/sh | -$606 cycle +$444 [-$1,451…+$124] · 30% credit | 90% surv 64% | -$10,553 NOT cap gain +$5,717 |
| budget: banked $1,050 debit $606 (58% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$444 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,603/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$0.84/sh | -$835 cycle +$215 [-$1,635…-$105] · 22% credit | 88% surv 51% | -$12,016 NOT cap gain +$4,254 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,938/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,938/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,250 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 140.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 21.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-16,370 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-48.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.50 (1.6σ) | $1,050 | $-11,181 | +$5,089 | +$390 |
| +2.5% | $48.69 (2.1σ) | $-137 | $-11,036 | +$5,234 | -$797 |
| +5% | $49.88 (2.6σ) | $-1,325 | $-10,891 | +$5,379 | -$1,985 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.4σ) | $-7,600 | $-10,125 | +$6,145 | -$8,110 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.37/sh | +$1,849 cycle +$2,449 [+$1,791…+$2,674] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$14,806 NOT cap gain +$13,294 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$910 cycle +$1,510 [+$691…+$1,548] · 97% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$13,900 NOT cap gain +$14,200 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$346 cycle +$946 [-$178…+$1,042] · 67% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$9,964 NOT cap gain +$18,136 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,700/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($9,400/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,830 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 110.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,650) | 42.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-28,150 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (1.5σ) | $600 | $-16,655 | +$11,445 | +$500 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.7σ) | $-1,212 | $-16,836 | +$11,264 | -$1,312 |
| +5% | $15.23 (2.0σ) | $-3,025 | $-17,017 | +$11,082 | -$3,125 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (7.7σ) | $-48,550 | $-21,570 | +$6,530 | -$37,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (32 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,056 cycle +$1,888 [+$823…+$1,252] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$19,831 NOT cap gain +$8,269 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$829 cycle +$1,661 [+$434…+$976] · 95% credit | 76% surv 66% | -$15,963 NOT cap gain +$12,137 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$451 cycle +$1,283 [+$153…+$575] · 89% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$18,591 NOT cap gain +$9,509 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$50 cycle +$882 [-$499…+$144] · 34% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$14,492 NOT cap gain +$13,608 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.19/sh | -$621 cycle +$211 [-$1,291…-$585] · 7% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$10,663 NOT cap gain +$17,437 |
| budget: banked $832 debit $621 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$211 cash · rolled 32 ct earn ≈ $2,576/mo while parked; 18 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,700/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($9,400/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,192/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,004 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 83.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,650) | 31.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (32 ct) | $-18,032 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $832 | $-20,887 | +$7,213 | +$768 |
| +2.5% | $13.84 (1.1σ) | $-248 | $-20,448 | +$7,652 | -$312 |
| +5% | $14.18 (1.3σ) | $-1,328 | $-20,009 | +$8,090 | -$1,392 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (7.7σ) | $-33,824 | $-11,002 | +$17,098 | -$26,432 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (49 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,617 cycle +$2,891 [+$1,296…+$2,036] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$18,862 NOT cap gain +$9,238 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$1,269 cycle +$2,543 [+$719…+$1,575] · 96% credit | 76% surv 66% | -$15,115 NOT cap gain +$12,985 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$690 cycle +$1,964 [+$280…+$940] · 91% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$17,944 NOT cap gain +$10,156 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$76 cycle +$1,350 [-$709…+$255] · 36% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$14,058 NOT cap gain +$14,042 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.19/sh | -$951 cycle +$323 [-$1,922…-$829] · 9% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$10,585 NOT cap gain +$17,515 |
| budget: banked $1,274 debit $951 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$323 cash · rolled 49 ct earn ≈ $3,945/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,778/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,700/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($9,400/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,782/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,568 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 127.3% |
| … as % of ML ($56,650) | 48.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (49 ct) | $-27,611 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,274 | $-20,479 | +$7,621 | +$1,176 |
| +2.5% | $13.84 (1.1σ) | $-380 | $-20,614 | +$7,486 | -$478 |
| +5% | $14.18 (1.3σ) | $-2,034 | $-20,749 | +$7,351 | -$2,132 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (7.7σ) | $-51,793 | $-25,044 | +$3,056 | -$40,474 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (43 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$1,258 cycle +$3,795 [+$831…+$1,111] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$22,446 NOT cap gain +$5,654 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$818 cycle +$3,355 [+$100…+$523] · 82% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$18,791 NOT cap gain +$9,309 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$440 cycle +$2,977 [-$93…+$222] · 62% credit | 73% surv 61% | -$21,419 NOT cap gain +$6,681 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.47/sh | -$2,008 cycle +$529 [-$3,663…-$2,679] | 92% surv 91% | -$8,117 NOT cap gain +$19,983 |
| budget: banked $2,537 debit $2,008 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$529 cash · rolled 43 ct earn ≈ $951/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,514/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,700/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($9,400/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,542/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,073 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 125.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,650) | 47.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (43 ct) | $-24,187 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-13.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,537 | $-23,704 | +$4,396 | +$2,451 |
| +2.5% | $12.81 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,193 | $-23,641 | +$4,458 | +$1,107 |
| +5% | $13.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-150 | $-23,579 | +$4,521 | -$236 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (7.7σ) | $-48,332 | $-22,969 | +$5,131 | -$38,399 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$104 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$380 cycle +$680 [+$142…+$677] · 88% credit | 69% surv 52% | -$6,995 NOT cap gain +$5,650 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$106 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$289 cycle +$589 [-$25…+$601] · 72% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$5,801 NOT cap gain +$6,844 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$107 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$85 cycle +$385 [-$252…+$377] · 52% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$5,478 NOT cap gain +$7,167 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$105 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$34 cycle +$334 [-$234…+$289] · 48% credit | 71% surv 58% | -$6,583 NOT cap gain +$6,062 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$109 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$259 cycle +$41 [-$628…-$7] · 24% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$4,769 NOT cap gain +$7,876 |
| budget: banked $300 debit $259 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$41 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,726/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,075/mo) | -46% |
| vs normal income ($4,150/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $879/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,720 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 49.7% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 23.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-12,738 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $102.96 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $103-104.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $104.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $104.00 (1.3σ) | $300 | $-7,375 | +$5,270 | +$48 |
| +2.5% | $106.60 (1.7σ) | $-1,000 | $-7,306 | +$5,339 | -$1,252 |
| +5% | $109.20 (2.1σ) | $-2,300 | $-7,237 | +$5,408 | -$2,552 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (2.9σ) | $-4,970 | $-7,096 | +$5,549 | -$4,952 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$103 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.75/sh | +$373 cycle +$808 [+$128…+$678] · 85% credit | 69% surv 52% | -$7,393 NOT cap gain +$5,252 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$105 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$273 cycle +$708 [-$56…+$606] · 69% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$6,209 NOT cap gain +$6,436 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$106 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$70 cycle +$505 [-$289…+$399] · 53% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$5,885 NOT cap gain +$6,760 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$104 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$26 cycle +$461 [-$265…+$304] · 50% credit | 72% surv 58% | -$6,982 NOT cap gain +$5,663 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$108 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.54/sh | -$272 cycle +$163 [-$694…+$43] · 27% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$5,175 NOT cap gain +$7,470 |
| budget: banked $435 debit $272 (63% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$163 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,643/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,631/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,075/mo) | -21% |
| vs normal income ($4,150/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,385/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,085 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 52.4% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 24.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-13,158 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $101.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $102-104.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $104.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $103.00 (1.2σ) | $435 | $-7,766 | +$4,879 | +$183 |
| +2.5% | $105.57 (1.6σ) | $-852 | $-7,698 | +$4,947 | -$1,104 |
| +5% | $108.15 (1.9σ) | $-2,140 | $-7,630 | +$5,015 | -$2,392 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (2.9σ) | $-5,335 | $-7,461 | +$5,184 | -$5,317 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$102 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.94/sh | +$468 cycle +$1,103 [+$56…+$690] · 79% credit | 71% surv 57% | -$7,393 NOT cap gain +$5,252 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$101 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.72/sh | +$359 cycle +$994 [+$33…+$559] · 78% credit | 69% surv 52% | -$8,261 NOT cap gain +$4,384 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$40 cycle +$675 [-$422…+$220] · 39% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$6,769 NOT cap gain +$5,876 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$102 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$11 cycle +$646 [-$359…+$170] · 37% credit | 72% surv 58% | -$7,850 NOT cap gain +$4,795 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$107 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.09/sh | -$547 cycle +$88 [-$1,137…-$402] · 9% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$5,776 NOT cap gain +$6,869 |
| budget: banked $635 debit $547 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,066/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,381/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,075/mo) | +15% |
| vs normal income ($4,150/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,135/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,885 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 58.3% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 27.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-12,848 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.99 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $100-102.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $102.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $101.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $635 | $-8,619 | +$4,026 | +$383 |
| +2.5% | $103.52 (1.3σ) | $-627 | $-8,552 | +$4,093 | -$879 |
| +5% | $106.05 (1.6σ) | $-1,890 | $-8,486 | +$4,159 | -$2,142 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (2.9σ) | $-6,135 | $-8,261 | +$4,384 | -$6,117 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$97 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.31/sh | +$654 cycle +$1,934 [+$132…+$484] · 87% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$9,194 NOT cap gain +$3,451 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$97 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.66/sh | +$331 cycle +$1,611 [-$115…+$183] · 56% credit | 69% surv 52% | -$9,749 NOT cap gain +$2,896 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$97 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.42/sh | +$210 cycle +$1,490 [-$252…+$48] · 32% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$9,639 NOT cap gain +$3,006 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$99 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$181 cycle +$1,461 [-$412…-$31] · 23% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$8,615 NOT cap gain +$4,030 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$109 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.38/sh | -$1,189 cycle +$91 [-$2,150…-$1,520] | 88% surv 87% | -$4,719 NOT cap gain +$7,926 |
| budget: banked $1,280 debit $1,189 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $766/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,075/mo) | +131% |
| vs normal income ($4,150/mo) | 116% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,554/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,240 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 68.3% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 32.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-12,755 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $96.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $96-99.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $99.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $97.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,280 | $-10,080 | +$2,565 | +$1,028 |
| +2.5% | $99.42 (≤1σ, normal week) | $68 | $-10,016 | +$2,629 | -$184 |
| +5% | $101.85 (1.0σ) | $-1,145 | $-9,952 | +$2,693 | -$1,397 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (2.9σ) | $-7,490 | $-9,616 | +$3,029 | -$7,472 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.49/sh | +$296 cycle +$680 [-$57…+$703] · 72% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$35,794 NOT cap gain +$8,774 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$347 cycle +$731 [-$157…+$697] · 66% credit | 77% surv 68% | -$31,968 NOT cap gain +$12,600 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$93 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$5 cycle +$389 [-$422…+$317] · 42% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$34,470 NOT cap gain +$10,098 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$101 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.59/sh | -$357 cycle +$27 [-$1,023…-$96] · 21% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$30,512 NOT cap gain +$14,056 |
| budget: banked $384 debit $357 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$27 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,687/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,440/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,054/mo) | -53% |
| vs normal income ($6,108/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,074/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,851 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 212.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 48.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.5 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-44,586 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-90.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (1.4σ) | $384 | $-36,089 | +$8,479 | +$378 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (1.6σ) | $-966 | $-36,224 | +$8,344 | -$972 |
| +5% | $94.50 (1.8σ) | $-2,316 | $-36,359 | +$8,209 | -$2,322 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (6.3σ) | $-30,546 | $-39,182 | +$5,386 | -$29,622 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$87 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.57/sh | +$341 cycle +$941 [-$48…+$627] · 71% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$37,153 NOT cap gain +$7,415 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$94 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.61/sh | +$366 cycle +$966 [-$174…+$555] · 64% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$33,353 NOT cap gain +$11,215 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$90 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$40 cycle +$640 [-$426…+$205] · 38% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$35,839 NOT cap gain +$8,729 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$98 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.55/sh | -$331 cycle +$269 [-$1,010…-$187] · 20% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$31,890 NOT cap gain +$12,678 |
| budget: banked $600 debit $331 (55% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$269 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,586/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,054/mo) | -26% |
| vs normal income ($6,108/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,884/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,435 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 222.4% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 50.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.8 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-44,616 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $86.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $86-88.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $88.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $87.00 (1.1σ) | $600 | $-37,493 | +$7,075 | +$594 |
| +2.5% | $89.17 (1.3σ) | $-705 | $-37,624 | +$6,944 | -$711 |
| +5% | $91.35 (1.5σ) | $-2,010 | $-37,754 | +$6,814 | -$2,016 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (6.3σ) | $-32,130 | $-40,766 | +$3,802 | -$31,206 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$88 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.11/sh | +$554 cycle +$1,429 [+$76…+$589] · 81% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$36,129 NOT cap gain +$8,439 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$83 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.66/sh | +$329 cycle +$1,204 [-$66…+$423] · 67% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$39,049 NOT cap gain +$5,519 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.64/sh | +$319 cycle +$1,194 [-$179…+$319] · 56% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$35,283 NOT cap gain +$9,285 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$86 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$67 cycle +$942 [-$362…+$68] · 31% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$37,696 NOT cap gain +$6,872 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$98 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.47/sh | -$735 cycle +$140 [-$1,482…-$829] · 2% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$32,018 NOT cap gain +$12,550 |
| budget: banked $875 debit $735 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$140 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,065/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,281/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,054/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($6,108/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,918/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,154 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 195.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 44.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-37,178 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $82.17 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $82-84.83 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $84.83 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $83.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $875 | $-39,377 | +$5,191 | +$870 |
| +2.5% | $85.07 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-162 | $-39,294 | +$5,274 | -$167 |
| +5% | $87.15 (1.1σ) | $-1,200 | $-39,211 | +$5,357 | -$1,205 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (6.3σ) | $-28,400 | $-37,190 | +$7,378 | -$27,630 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.12/sh | +$673 cycle +$2,437 [-$16…+$483] · 73% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$37,282 NOT cap gain +$7,286 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.74/sh | +$442 cycle +$2,206 [-$139…+$291] · 57% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$40,208 NOT cap gain +$4,360 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.65/sh | +$392 cycle +$2,156 [-$332…+$184] · 41% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$36,483 NOT cap gain +$8,085 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$114 cycle +$1,878 [-$505…-$61] · 20% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$38,921 NOT cap gain +$5,647 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$2.74/sh | -$1,642 cycle +$122 [-$2,828…-$2,019] | 90% surv 89% | -$34,197 NOT cap gain +$10,371 |
| budget: banked $1,764 debit $1,642 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,671/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,615/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,054/mo) | +117% |
| vs normal income ($6,108/mo) | 108% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,249/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,071 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 245.3% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 55.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.4 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-44,616 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-82.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,764 | $-40,649 | +$3,919 | +$1,758 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $579 | $-40,768 | +$3,800 | +$573 |
| +5% | $82.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-606 | $-40,886 | +$3,682 | -$612 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (6.3σ) | $-35,766 | $-44,402 | +$166 | -$34,842 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$190 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$4.62/sh | +$7,847 cycle +$10,499 [+$7,617…+$11,070] · 100% credit | 71% surv 53% | -$100,547 NOT cap gain +$23,434 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$213 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$419 cycle +$3,071 [-$1,238…+$2,887] · 61% credit | 82% surv 76% | -$96,331 NOT cap gain +$27,650 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$200 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.28/sh | +$471 cycle +$3,123 [-$1,057…+$2,391] · 60% credit | 76% surv 66% | -$102,739 NOT cap gain +$21,242 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$215 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.60/sh | -$1,022 cycle +$1,630 [-$2,907…+$1,337] · 40% credit | 83% surv 78% | -$96,480 NOT cap gain +$27,501 |
| budget: banked $2,652 debit $1,022 (39% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,630 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $22,508/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,945/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,570/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($41,140/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,945/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$239,754 |
| … as % of IC ($107,100) | 223.9% |
| … as % of ML ($158,100) | 151.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.8 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-124,083 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $188-191.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $191.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (1.4σ) | $2,652 | $-108,393 | +$15,588 | +$2,329 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (1.6σ) | $-5,423 | $-114,014 | +$9,967 | -$5,746 |
| +5% | $199.50 (1.9σ) | $-13,498 | $-119,634 | +$4,347 | -$13,821 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (21.9σ) | $-631,448 | $-549,727 | -$425,746 | -$99,671 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$185 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$4.41/sh | +$7,059 cycle +$10,707 [+$6,378…+$8,926] · 100% credit | 71% surv 53% | -$102,903 NOT cap gain +$21,078 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$200 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.11/sh | +$3,380 cycle +$7,028 [+$1,919…+$5,101] · 94% credit | 79% surv 70% | -$98,815 NOT cap gain +$25,166 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$205 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.44/sh | +$701 cycle +$4,349 [-$1,177…+$2,095] · 54% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$98,910 NOT cap gain +$25,071 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$195 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$158 cycle +$3,806 [-$1,697…+$1,054] · 41% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$104,621 NOT cap gain +$19,360 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$215 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.01/sh | -$3,216 cycle +$432 [-$5,814…-$2,241] · 12% credit | 86% surv 82% | -$97,659 NOT cap gain +$26,322 |
| budget: banked $3,648 debit $3,216 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$432 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $16,416/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,680/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,570/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($41,140/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,718/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$232,499 |
| … as % of IC ($107,100) | 217.1% |
| … as % of ML ($158,100) | 147.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.7 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-116,832 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $183.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $183-187.37 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $187.37 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $185.00 (1.1σ) | $3,648 | $-109,962 | +$14,019 | +$3,344 |
| +2.5% | $189.62 (1.4σ) | $-3,752 | $-114,972 | +$9,009 | -$4,056 |
| +5% | $194.25 (1.6σ) | $-11,152 | $-119,982 | +$3,999 | -$11,456 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (21.9σ) | $-601,152 | $-550,712 | -$426,731 | -$100,656 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$180 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$4.21/sh | +$7,161 cycle +$12,856 [+$5,930…+$8,761] · 100% credit | 71% surv 53% | -$103,357 NOT cap gain +$20,624 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$195 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.73/sh | +$2,939 cycle +$8,634 [+$689…+$3,901] · 85% credit | 79% surv 71% | -$99,812 NOT cap gain +$24,169 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$188 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.58/sh | +$988 cycle +$6,683 [-$1,062…+$1,717] · 51% credit | 75% surv 64% | -$105,639 NOT cap gain +$18,342 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$200 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$146 cycle +$5,841 [-$2,611…+$931] · 35% credit | 82% surv 75% | -$100,021 NOT cap gain +$23,960 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$215 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.30/sh | -$5,617 cycle +$78 [-$9,692…-$5,219] · 1% credit | 89% surv 86% | -$98,032 NOT cap gain +$25,949 |
| budget: banked $5,695 debit $5,617 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $12,726/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $21,356/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,570/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($41,140/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $21,356/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$253,711 |
| … as % of IC ($107,100) | 236.9% |
| … as % of ML ($158,100) | 160.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.2 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-124,109 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $178.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $178-183.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $183.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $180.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,695 | $-110,518 | +$13,463 | +$5,372 |
| +2.5% | $184.50 (1.1σ) | $-1,955 | $-115,843 | +$8,138 | -$2,278 |
| +5% | $189.00 (1.3σ) | $-9,605 | $-121,167 | +$2,814 | -$9,928 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (21.9σ) | $-645,405 | $-563,684 | -$439,703 | -$113,628 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$3.83/sh | +$6,506 cycle +$17,726 [+$4,767…+$5,865] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$103,655 NOT cap gain +$20,326 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$183 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.81/sh | +$3,072 cycle +$14,292 [+$33…+$1,775] · 76% credit | 78% surv 69% | -$100,614 NOT cap gain +$23,367 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$185 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.01/sh | +$1,715 cycle +$12,935 [-$1,562…+$317] · 32% credit | 80% surv 72% | -$100,679 NOT cap gain +$23,302 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$178 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.22/sh | +$371 cycle +$11,591 [-$2,438…-$807] · 14% credit | 76% surv 65% | -$105,899 NOT cap gain +$18,082 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$205 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.69/sh | -$6,265 cycle +$4,955 [-$11,831…-$8,494] | 90% surv 88% | -$98,323 NOT cap gain +$25,658 |
| budget: banked $11,220 debit $6,265 (56% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,955 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $9,618/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $42,075/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,570/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($41,140/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $42,075/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$265,186 |
| … as % of IC ($107,100) | 247.6% |
| … as % of ML ($158,100) | 167.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.4 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-124,194 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $168.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $168-176.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $176.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $170.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $11,220 | $-110,161 | +$13,820 | +$10,897 |
| +2.5% | $174.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,995 | $-115,190 | +$8,791 | +$3,672 |
| +5% | $178.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,230 | $-120,219 | +$3,762 | -$3,553 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (21.9σ) | $-656,880 | $-575,159 | -$451,178 | -$125,103 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.37/sh | +$7,395 cycle +$9,795 [+$7,142…+$11,257] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$45,425 NOT cap gain +$53,175 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$3,640 cycle +$6,040 [+$2,818…+$7,096] · 96% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$41,800 NOT cap gain +$56,800 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$1,382 cycle +$3,782 [-$489…+$5,135] · 69% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$26,058 NOT cap gain +$72,542 |
| SS $23 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,800/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($37,600/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$78,272 |
| … as % of IC ($7,600) | 1029.9% |
| … as % of ML ($207,600) | 37.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-98,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (1.5σ) | $2,400 | $-52,820 | +$45,780 | +$2,000 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.7σ) | $-4,850 | $-53,545 | +$45,055 | -$5,250 |
| +5% | $15.23 (2.0σ) | $-12,100 | $-54,270 | +$44,330 | -$12,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $22.69 (6.6σ) | $-161,400 | $-69,200 | +$29,400 | -$148,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (128 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$4,225 cycle +$7,553 [+$3,373…+$5,186] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$65,523 NOT cap gain +$33,077 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$3,314 cycle +$6,642 [+$1,866…+$3,986] · 96% credit | 76% surv 66% | -$50,054 NOT cap gain +$48,546 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,803 cycle +$5,131 [+$699…+$2,350] · 91% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$60,565 NOT cap gain +$38,035 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$200 cycle +$3,528 [-$1,877…+$684] · 36% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$44,168 NOT cap gain +$54,432 |
| SS $23 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.19/sh | -$2,485 cycle +$843 [-$5,105…-$2,210] · 8% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$28,853 NOT cap gain +$69,747 |
| budget: banked $3,328 debit $2,485 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$843 cash · rolled 128 ct earn ≈ $10,305/mo while parked; 72 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,800/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($37,600/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,768/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$61,102 |
| … as % of IC ($7,600) | 804.0% |
| … as % of ML ($207,600) | 29.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (128 ct) | $-63,296 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,328 | $-69,748 | +$28,852 | +$3,072 |
| +2.5% | $13.84 (1.1σ) | $-992 | $-67,993 | +$30,607 | -$1,248 |
| +5% | $14.18 (1.3σ) | $-5,312 | $-66,238 | +$32,362 | -$5,568 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $22.69 (6.6σ) | $-114,304 | $-26,928 | +$71,672 | -$105,728 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (193 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$6,371 cycle +$11,389 [+$5,065…+$7,872] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$61,817 NOT cap gain +$36,783 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$4,998 cycle +$10,016 [+$2,781…+$6,031] · 95% credit | 76% surv 66% | -$46,810 NOT cap gain +$51,790 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$2,718 cycle +$7,736 [+$1,035…+$3,659] · 91% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$58,090 NOT cap gain +$40,510 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$301 cycle +$5,319 [-$2,771…+$1,110] · 37% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$42,507 NOT cap gain +$56,093 |
| SS $23 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.19/sh | -$3,747 cycle +$1,271 [-$7,645…-$3,198] · 7% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$28,555 NOT cap gain +$70,045 |
| budget: banked $5,018 debit $3,747 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,271 cash · rolled 193 ct earn ≈ $15,539/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $18,818/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,800/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($37,600/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $18,846/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$92,131 |
| … as % of IC ($7,600) | 1212.2% |
| … as % of ML ($207,600) | 44.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (193 ct) | $-95,439 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,018 | $-68,188 | +$30,412 | +$4,632 |
| +2.5% | $13.84 (1.1σ) | $-1,496 | $-68,627 | +$29,973 | -$1,882 |
| +5% | $14.18 (1.3σ) | $-8,010 | $-69,066 | +$29,534 | -$8,396 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $22.69 (6.6σ) | $-172,349 | $-80,618 | +$17,982 | -$159,418 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (170 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$4,972 cycle +$15,002 [+$3,295…+$4,418] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$76,158 NOT cap gain +$22,442 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$3,234 cycle +$13,264 [+$306…+$2,119] · 80% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$61,516 NOT cap gain +$37,084 |
| SS $23 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$1,739 cycle +$11,769 [-$420…+$934] · 61% credit | 73% surv 61% | -$72,011 NOT cap gain +$26,589 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.47/sh | -$7,938 cycle +$2,092 [-$14,976…-$10,396] | 92% surv 91% | -$18,688 NOT cap gain +$79,912 |
| budget: banked $10,030 debit $7,938 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,092 cash · rolled 170 ct earn ≈ $3,761/mo while parked; 30 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $37,612/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,800/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($37,600/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $37,732/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$92,542 |
| … as % of IC ($7,600) | 1217.7% |
| … as % of ML ($207,600) | 44.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (170 ct) | $-83,895 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-13.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $10,030 | $-81,130 | +$17,470 | +$9,690 |
| +2.5% | $12.81 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,718 | $-80,818 | +$17,782 | +$4,378 |
| +5% | $13.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-595 | $-80,505 | +$18,095 | -$935 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $22.69 (6.6σ) | $-163,200 | $-73,010 | +$25,590 | -$151,810 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.31/sh | +$16,414 cycle +$18,039 [+$14,839…+$23,270] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$20,755 NOT cap gain +$75,995 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$3,528 cycle +$5,153 [+$353…+$8,936] · 77% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$7,297 NOT cap gain +$89,453 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$3,528 cycle +$5,153 [+$353…+$8,936] · 77% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$7,297 NOT cap gain +$89,453 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,094/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,875/mo) | -49% |
| vs normal income ($23,750/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,094/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,951 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 155.5% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 15.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-97,812 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $30-30.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $30.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $30.00 (1.5σ) | $1,625 | $-37,169 | +$59,581 | +$1,500 |
| +2.5% | $30.75 (1.7σ) | $-7,750 | $-38,641 | +$58,109 | -$7,875 |
| +5% | $31.50 (1.9σ) | $-17,125 | $-40,112 | +$56,638 | -$17,250 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (4.2σ) | $-119,750 | $-56,225 | +$40,525 | -$111,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (84 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.25/sh | +$10,467 cycle +$12,567 [+$9,145…+$13,382] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$36,723 NOT cap gain +$60,027 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$1,849 cycle +$3,949 [-$428…+$4,221] · 70% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$18,997 NOT cap gain +$77,753 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$1,849 cycle +$3,949 [-$428…+$4,221] · 70% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$18,997 NOT cap gain +$77,753 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,875/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($23,750/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,957/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$36,255 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 131.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 13.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (84 ct) | $-65,646 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $28.71 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.32 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.32 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.00 (1.2σ) | $2,100 | $-47,190 | +$49,560 | +$2,016 |
| +2.5% | $29.72 (1.4σ) | $-3,990 | $-45,641 | +$51,109 | -$4,074 |
| +5% | $30.45 (1.6σ) | $-10,080 | $-44,091 | +$52,659 | -$10,164 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (4.2σ) | $-87,864 | $-27,209 | +$69,541 | -$81,984 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (71 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.15/sh | +$8,155 cycle +$11,350 [+$6,159…+$9,328] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$53,734 NOT cap gain +$43,016 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$2,179 cycle +$5,374 [-$495…+$2,880] · 67% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$38,635 NOT cap gain +$58,115 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$934 cycle +$4,129 [-$1,942…+$1,522] · 44% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$34,611 NOT cap gain +$62,139 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$934 cycle +$4,129 [-$1,942…+$1,522] · 44% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$34,611 NOT cap gain +$62,139 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$31 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.39/sh | -$2,737 cycle +$458 [-$6,583…-$2,571] · 9% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$27,744 NOT cap gain +$69,006 |
| budget: banked $3,195 debit $2,737 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$458 cash · rolled 71 ct earn ≈ $14,886/mo while parked; 54 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,981/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,875/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($23,750/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,089/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,874 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 144.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 14.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (71 ct) | $-56,977 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-28.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,195 | $-61,888 | +$34,862 | +$3,124 |
| +2.5% | $28.19 (1.0σ) | $-1,686 | $-59,525 | +$37,225 | -$1,757 |
| +5% | $28.88 (1.2σ) | $-6,568 | $-57,162 | +$39,588 | -$6,638 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (4.2σ) | $-83,496 | $-23,751 | +$72,999 | -$78,526 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (112 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.09/sh | +$12,158 cycle +$18,542 [+$8,560…+$12,139] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$57,120 NOT cap gain +$39,630 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.44/sh | +$4,930 cycle +$11,314 [+$537…+$4,544] · 81% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$48,541 NOT cap gain +$48,209 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$845 cycle +$7,229 [-$4,202…+$36] · 25% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$42,089 NOT cap gain +$54,661 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$845 cycle +$7,229 [-$4,202…+$36] · 25% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$42,089 NOT cap gain +$54,661 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.50/sh | -$5,550 cycle +$834 [-$12,230…-$7,001] · 4% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$32,678 NOT cap gain +$64,072 |
| budget: banked $6,384 debit $5,550 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$834 cash · rolled 112 ct earn ≈ $19,743/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $23,940/mo |
| vs 50% target ($11,875/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($23,750/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $23,966/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$72,757 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 263.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 26.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (112 ct) | $-89,824 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-27.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $6,384 | $-69,278 | +$27,472 | +$6,272 |
| +2.5% | $27.16 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,036 | $-69,717 | +$27,033 | -$1,148 |
| +5% | $27.83 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-8,456 | $-70,156 | +$26,594 | -$8,568 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (4.2σ) | $-141,568 | $-78,953 | +$17,797 | -$133,728 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$1.53/sh | +$767 cycle +$1,185 [+$586…+$1,108] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$19,510 NOT cap gain +$7,395 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$97 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.78/sh | +$390 cycle +$808 [+$54…+$704] · 80% credit | 77% surv 68% | -$16,827 NOT cap gain +$10,078 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$99 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$109 cycle +$527 [-$273…+$393] · 52% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$16,208 NOT cap gain +$10,697 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$102 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.69/sh | -$345 cycle +$73 [-$820…-$91] · 21% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$15,312 NOT cap gain +$11,593 |
| budget: banked $418 debit $345 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$73 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,931/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,568/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,000/mo) | -48% |
| vs normal income ($6,000/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,352/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,021 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 186.0% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 37.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-26,927 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-90.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (1.3σ) | $418 | $-20,277 | +$6,628 | +$403 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (1.5σ) | $-707 | $-20,390 | +$6,516 | -$722 |
| +5% | $94.50 (1.7σ) | $-1,832 | $-20,502 | +$6,403 | -$1,847 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (4.7σ) | $-17,307 | $-22,050 | +$4,855 | -$17,097 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$1.57/sh | +$784 cycle +$1,335 [+$547…+$1,034] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$20,260 NOT cap gain +$6,645 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$95 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.80/sh | +$400 cycle +$951 [+$16…+$594] · 76% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$17,584 NOT cap gain +$9,321 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$119 cycle +$670 [-$320…+$284] · 43% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$16,965 NOT cap gain +$9,940 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$101 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.91/sh | -$456 cycle +$95 [-$1,021…-$319] · 13% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$15,740 NOT cap gain +$11,165 |
| budget: banked $551 debit $456 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$95 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,668/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,066/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,000/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($6,000/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,851/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,888 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 194.5% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 39.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-26,934 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $87.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $87-89.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $88.00 (1.1σ) | $551 | $-21,044 | +$5,861 | +$536 |
| +2.5% | $90.20 (1.3σ) | $-549 | $-21,154 | +$5,751 | -$564 |
| +5% | $92.40 (1.5σ) | $-1,649 | $-21,264 | +$5,641 | -$1,664 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (4.7σ) | $-18,174 | $-22,917 | +$3,988 | -$17,964 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$85 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$1.61/sh | +$805 cycle +$1,646 [+$496…+$954] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$21,299 NOT cap gain +$5,606 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$92 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$411 cycle +$1,251 [-$86…+$516] · 67% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$18,634 NOT cap gain +$8,271 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$94 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$132 cycle +$972 [-$412…+$208] · 39% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$18,013 NOT cap gain +$8,892 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$101 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.56/sh | -$780 cycle +$60 [-$1,570…-$781] · 2% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$15,775 NOT cap gain +$11,130 |
| budget: banked $841 debit $780 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$60 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,010/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,153/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,000/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($6,000/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,937/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,098 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 206.3% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 42.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-26,949 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $84.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-86.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $86.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $85.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $841 | $-22,104 | +$4,801 | +$826 |
| +2.5% | $87.12 (1.0σ) | $-222 | $-22,210 | +$4,694 | -$237 |
| +5% | $89.25 (1.2σ) | $-1,284 | $-22,317 | +$4,588 | -$1,299 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (4.7σ) | $-19,384 | $-24,127 | +$2,778 | -$19,174 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$1.68/sh | +$838 cycle +$2,588 [+$439…+$691] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$23,057 NOT cap gain +$3,848 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.01/sh | +$503 cycle +$2,253 [-$101…+$267] · 64% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$20,782 NOT cap gain +$6,123 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$143 cycle +$1,893 [-$512…-$117] · 17% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$19,792 NOT cap gain +$7,113 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$100 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.24/sh | -$1,122 cycle +$628 [-$2,177…-$1,525] | 91% surv 89% | -$15,657 NOT cap gain +$11,248 |
| budget: banked $1,750 debit $1,122 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$628 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,207/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,000/mo) | +119% |
| vs normal income ($6,000/mo) | 109% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,347/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,189 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 226.8% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 46.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-26,968 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-82.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,750 | $-23,895 | +$3,010 | +$1,735 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $763 | $-23,994 | +$2,911 | +$748 |
| +5% | $82.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-225 | $-24,092 | +$2,812 | -$240 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (4.7σ) | $-21,475 | $-26,218 | +$688 | -$21,265 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$1,319 cycle +$1,919 [+$1,079…+$2,209] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$181,736 NOT cap gain +$15,014 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$651 cycle +$1,251 [+$18…+$1,418] · 77% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$178,309 NOT cap gain +$18,441 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$323 cycle +$923 [-$87…+$977] · 69% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$180,887 NOT cap gain +$15,863 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.04/sh | -$206 cycle +$394 [-$1,033…+$512] · 39% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$176,916 NOT cap gain +$19,834 |
| budget: banked $600 debit $206 (34% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$394 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $6,266/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,500/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($11,000/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$203,461 |
| … as % of IC ($94,550) | 215.2% |
| … as % of ML ($244,550) | 83.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 18.5 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-196,825 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.5σ) | $600 | $-183,055 | +$13,695 | +$350 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (1.8σ) | $-1,712 | $-183,286 | +$13,464 | -$1,962 |
| +5% | $19.43 (2.0σ) | $-4,025 | $-183,518 | +$13,232 | -$4,275 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.46 (15.4σ) | $-129,200 | $-196,035 | +$715 | -$17,150 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (39 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.28/sh | +$1,111 cycle +$2,086 [+$736…+$1,420] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$186,014 NOT cap gain +$10,736 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$571 cycle +$1,546 [-$141…+$735] · 67% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$182,459 NOT cap gain +$14,291 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$336 cycle +$1,311 [-$174…+$505] · 61% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$184,944 NOT cap gain +$11,806 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$701 cycle +$274 [-$1,706…-$633] · 8% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$179,231 NOT cap gain +$17,519 |
| budget: banked $975 debit $701 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$274 cash · rolled 39 ct earn ≈ $3,707/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,500/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($11,000/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,766/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$162,093 |
| … as % of IC ($94,550) | 171.4% |
| … as % of ML ($244,550) | 66.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 14.7 mo |
| Surgical close (39 ct) | $-153,524 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.0σ) | $975 | $-187,125 | +$9,625 | +$780 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.2σ) | $-731 | $-186,862 | +$9,888 | -$926 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.5σ) | $-2,438 | $-186,600 | +$10,150 | -$2,632 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.46 (15.4σ) | $-104,169 | $-195,655 | +$1,095 | -$16,770 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (42 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$1,235 cycle +$2,705 [+$771…+$1,363] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$187,660 NOT cap gain +$9,090 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$642 cycle +$2,112 [-$245…+$594] · 62% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$184,158 NOT cap gain +$12,592 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$401 cycle +$1,871 [-$228…+$396] · 56% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$186,649 NOT cap gain +$10,101 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.29/sh | -$1,239 cycle +$231 [-$2,599…-$1,465] · 2% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$179,289 NOT cap gain +$17,461 |
| budget: banked $1,470 debit $1,239 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$231 cash · rolled 42 ct earn ≈ $3,036/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,512/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,500/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($11,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,592/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$176,241 |
| … as % of IC ($94,550) | 186.4% |
| … as % of ML ($244,550) | 72.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 16.0 mo |
| Surgical close (42 ct) | $-165,375 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,470 | $-188,895 | +$7,855 | +$1,260 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-315 | $-188,768 | +$7,982 | -$525 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.2σ) | $-2,100 | $-188,640 | +$8,110 | -$2,310 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.46 (15.4σ) | $-113,862 | $-198,625 | -$1,875 | -$19,740 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (44 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.31/sh | +$1,360 cycle +$4,352 [+$748…+$1,083] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$190,523 NOT cap gain +$6,227 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$1,588 cycle +$4,580 [+$633…+$1,179] · 94% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$188,450 NOT cap gain +$8,300 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$713 cycle +$3,705 [-$398…+$259] · 48% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$187,075 NOT cap gain +$9,675 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$489 cycle +$3,481 [-$295…+$158] · 43% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$189,549 NOT cap gain +$7,201 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$0.50/sh | -$2,202 cycle +$790 [-$3,987…-$2,876] | 90% surv 89% | -$180,990 NOT cap gain +$15,760 |
| budget: banked $2,992 debit $2,202 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$790 cash · rolled 44 ct earn ≈ $2,227/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,220/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,500/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($11,000/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,280/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$187,582 |
| … as % of IC ($94,550) | 198.4% |
| … as % of ML ($244,550) | 76.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 17.1 mo |
| Surgical close (44 ct) | $-173,272 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,992 | $-191,883 | +$4,867 | +$2,772 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,232 | $-191,843 | +$4,907 | +$1,012 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-528 | $-191,803 | +$4,947 | -$748 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.46 (15.4σ) | $-122,232 | $-202,513 | -$5,763 | -$23,628 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (75 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$1,979 cycle +$2,879 [+$1,599…+$3,239] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$143,754 NOT cap gain +$22,521 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$977 cycle +$1,877 [-$8…+$2,052] · 75% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$138,613 NOT cap gain +$27,662 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$485 cycle +$1,385 [-$188…+$1,454] · 68% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$142,480 NOT cap gain +$23,795 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.04/sh | -$309 cycle +$591 [-$1,571…+$690] · 41% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$136,524 NOT cap gain +$29,751 |
| budget: banked $900 debit $309 (34% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$591 cash · rolled 75 ct earn ≈ $9,399/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,250/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($16,500/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,375/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$158,450 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 208.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.6 mo |
| Surgical close (75 ct) | $-166,388 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.5σ) | $900 | $-145,732 | +$20,542 | +$525 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (1.8σ) | $-2,569 | $-146,079 | +$20,196 | -$2,944 |
| +5% | $19.43 (2.0σ) | $-6,038 | $-146,426 | +$19,849 | -$6,412 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (12.5σ) | $-153,825 | $-161,205 | +$5,070 | -$25,725 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (59 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.28/sh | +$1,681 cycle +$3,156 [+$1,156…+$2,223] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$150,146 NOT cap gain +$16,129 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$864 cycle +$2,339 [-$153…+$1,206] · 69% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$144,821 NOT cap gain +$21,454 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$509 cycle +$1,984 [-$209…+$829] · 63% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$148,551 NOT cap gain +$17,724 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$1,061 cycle +$414 [-$2,473…-$825] · 13% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$139,996 NOT cap gain +$26,279 |
| budget: banked $1,475 debit $1,061 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$414 cash · rolled 59 ct earn ≈ $5,609/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,531/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,250/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($16,500/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,691/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$129,781 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 170.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.9 mo |
| Surgical close (59 ct) | $-130,892 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.0σ) | $1,475 | $-151,828 | +$14,448 | +$1,180 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.2σ) | $-1,106 | $-151,456 | +$14,819 | -$1,401 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.5σ) | $-3,688 | $-151,084 | +$15,191 | -$3,982 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (12.5σ) | $-126,142 | $-160,850 | +$5,425 | -$25,370 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (63 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$1,852 cycle +$4,057 [+$1,182…+$2,113] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$152,640 NOT cap gain +$13,635 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$963 cycle +$3,168 [-$227…+$1,016] · 66% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$147,387 NOT cap gain +$18,888 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$602 cycle +$2,807 [-$238…+$709] · 60% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$151,123 NOT cap gain +$15,152 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.29/sh | -$1,858 cycle +$347 [-$3,674…-$2,025] · 3% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$140,083 NOT cap gain +$26,192 |
| budget: banked $2,205 debit $1,858 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$347 cash · rolled 63 ct earn ≈ $4,555/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,269/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,250/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($16,500/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,389/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$141,099 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 185.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.6 mo |
| Surgical close (63 ct) | $-139,828 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,205 | $-154,492 | +$11,782 | +$1,890 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-472 | $-154,301 | +$11,974 | -$787 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.2σ) | $-3,150 | $-154,110 | +$12,165 | -$3,465 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (12.5σ) | $-137,214 | $-165,090 | +$1,185 | -$29,610 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (65 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.31/sh | +$2,009 cycle +$6,429 [+$1,083…+$1,664] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$157,029 NOT cap gain +$9,246 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$2,346 cycle +$6,766 [+$900…+$1,766] · 94% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$153,924 NOT cap gain +$12,351 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$1,053 cycle +$5,473 [-$642…+$388] · 49% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$151,842 NOT cap gain +$14,433 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$723 cycle +$5,143 [-$468…+$244] · 45% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$155,547 NOT cap gain +$10,728 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$0.50/sh | -$3,252 cycle +$1,168 [-$5,969…-$4,211] | 90% surv 89% | -$142,647 NOT cap gain +$23,628 |
| budget: banked $4,420 debit $3,252 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,168 cash · rolled 65 ct earn ≈ $3,289/mo while parked; 10 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,575/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,250/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($16,500/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,675/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$149,934 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 197.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.1 mo |
| Surgical close (65 ct) | $-144,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,420 | $-159,038 | +$7,238 | +$4,095 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,820 | $-158,938 | +$7,338 | +$1,495 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-780 | $-158,838 | +$7,438 | -$1,105 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (12.5σ) | $-145,925 | $-170,385 | -$4,110 | -$34,905 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (150 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$3,957 cycle +$5,757 [+$3,432…+$6,845] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$22,158 NOT cap gain +$45,042 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$1,954 cycle +$3,754 [+$360…+$4,391] · 78% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$11,876 NOT cap gain +$55,324 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$970 cycle +$2,770 [-$112…+$3,243] · 72% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$19,610 NOT cap gain +$47,590 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.04/sh | -$618 cycle +$1,182 [-$2,698…+$1,698] · 41% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$7,698 NOT cap gain +$59,502 |
| budget: banked $1,800 debit $618 (34% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,182 cash · rolled 150 ct earn ≈ $18,797/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($16,500/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($33,000/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,893 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($157,060) | 26.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (150 ct) | $-67,425 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.5σ) | $1,800 | $-26,115 | +$41,085 | +$1,050 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (1.8σ) | $-5,137 | $-26,809 | +$40,391 | -$5,887 |
| +5% | $19.43 (2.0σ) | $-12,075 | $-27,503 | +$39,698 | -$12,825 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (7.8σ) | $-175,050 | $-43,800 | +$23,400 | -$51,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (117 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.28/sh | +$3,334 cycle +$6,259 [+$2,265…+$4,443] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$34,991 NOT cap gain +$32,209 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$1,713 cycle +$4,638 [-$453…+$2,532] · 68% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$24,327 NOT cap gain +$42,873 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,009 cycle +$3,934 [-$476…+$1,835] · 62% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$31,781 NOT cap gain +$35,419 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$2,104 cycle +$821 [-$5,112…-$1,557] · 12% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$14,644 NOT cap gain +$52,556 |
| budget: banked $2,925 debit $2,104 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$821 cash · rolled 117 ct earn ≈ $11,122/mo while parked; 33 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,969/mo |
| vs 50% target ($16,500/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($33,000/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,299/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,076 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($157,060) | 26.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (117 ct) | $-52,592 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.0σ) | $2,925 | $-38,325 | +$28,875 | +$2,340 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.2σ) | $-2,194 | $-37,538 | +$29,662 | -$2,779 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.5σ) | $-7,312 | $-36,750 | +$30,450 | -$7,898 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (7.8σ) | $-146,718 | $-42,660 | +$24,540 | -$50,310 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (126 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$3,704 cycle +$8,114 [+$2,354…+$4,243] · 100% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$39,931 NOT cap gain +$27,269 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$1,925 cycle +$6,335 [-$464…+$2,115] · 64% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$29,425 NOT cap gain +$37,775 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$1,204 cycle +$5,614 [-$504…+$1,462] · 57% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$36,896 NOT cap gain +$30,304 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.29/sh | -$3,717 cycle +$693 [-$7,348…-$4,049] · 2% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$14,817 NOT cap gain +$52,383 |
| budget: banked $4,410 debit $3,717 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$693 cash · rolled 126 ct earn ≈ $9,109/mo while parked; 24 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,538/mo |
| vs 50% target ($16,500/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($33,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,778/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,352 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($157,060) | 32.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (126 ct) | $-56,763 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,410 | $-43,635 | +$23,565 | +$3,780 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-945 | $-43,253 | +$23,948 | -$1,575 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.2σ) | $-6,300 | $-42,870 | +$24,330 | -$6,930 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (7.8σ) | $-163,044 | $-51,570 | +$15,630 | -$59,220 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (130 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.31/sh | +$4,017 cycle +$12,857 [+$2,136…+$3,272] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$48,708 NOT cap gain +$18,492 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$4,691 cycle +$13,531 [+$1,779…+$3,492] · 94% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$42,499 NOT cap gain +$24,701 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$2,106 cycle +$10,946 [-$1,282…+$738] · 47% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$38,334 NOT cap gain +$28,866 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$1,445 cycle +$10,285 [-$942…+$461] · 43% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$45,745 NOT cap gain +$21,455 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$0.50/sh | -$6,504 cycle +$2,336 [-$11,977…-$8,470] | 90% surv 89% | -$19,944 NOT cap gain +$47,256 |
| budget: banked $8,840 debit $6,504 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,336 cash · rolled 130 ct earn ≈ $6,579/mo while parked; 20 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $33,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($16,500/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($33,000/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $33,350/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$60,661 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($157,060) | 38.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (130 ct) | $-58,630 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $8,840 | $-52,725 | +$14,475 | +$8,190 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,640 | $-52,525 | +$14,675 | +$2,990 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,560 | $-52,325 | +$14,875 | -$2,210 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (7.8σ) | $-176,930 | $-62,160 | +$5,040 | -$69,810 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$1,319 cycle +$1,919 [+$1,079…+$2,209] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$3,142 NOT cap gain +$18,608 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$651 cycle +$1,251 [+$18…+$1,418] · 77% credit | 74% surv 64% | +$1,409 SAFE cap gain +$23,159 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$323 cycle +$923 [-$87…+$977] · 69% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$1,787 NOT cap gain +$19,963 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.04/sh | -$206 cycle +$394 [-$1,033…+$512] · 39% credit | 77% surv 70% | +$3,419 SAFE cap gain +$25,169 |
| budget: banked $600 debit $206 (34% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$394 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $6,266/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,500/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($11,000/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,833/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,939 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 12.6% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 5.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-21,825 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $18-18.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $18.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $18.50 (1.5σ) | $600 | $-4,461 | +$17,289 | +$5,100 |
| +2.5% | $18.96 (1.8σ) | $-1,712 | $-4,121 | +$17,629 | +$5,100 |
| +5% | $19.43 (2.0σ) | $-4,025 | $-3,781 | +$17,969 | +$5,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (39 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.28/sh | +$1,111 cycle +$2,086 [+$736…+$1,420] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$8,600 NOT cap gain +$13,150 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$571 cycle +$1,546 [-$141…+$735] · 67% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$4,922 NOT cap gain +$16,828 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$336 cycle +$1,311 [-$174…+$505] · 61% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$7,474 NOT cap gain +$14,276 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$701 cycle +$274 [-$1,706…-$633] · 8% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$1,560 NOT cap gain +$20,190 |
| budget: banked $975 debit $701 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$274 cash · rolled 39 ct earn ≈ $3,707/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,500/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($11,000/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,560/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,466 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 20.7% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 9.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (39 ct) | $-17,023 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.0σ) | $975 | $-9,711 | +$12,039 | +$585 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.2σ) | $-731 | $-9,390 | +$12,360 | +$585 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.5σ) | $-2,438 | $-9,068 | +$12,682 | +$585 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (42 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$1,235 cycle +$2,705 [+$771…+$1,363] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$10,479 NOT cap gain +$11,271 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$642 cycle +$2,112 [-$245…+$594] · 62% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$6,581 NOT cap gain +$15,169 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$401 cycle +$1,871 [-$228…+$396] · 56% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$9,289 NOT cap gain +$12,461 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.29/sh | -$1,239 cycle +$231 [-$2,599…-$1,465] · 2% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$1,059 NOT cap gain +$20,691 |
| budget: banked $1,470 debit $1,239 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$231 cash · rolled 42 ct earn ≈ $3,036/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,512/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,500/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($11,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,056/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,643 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 27.7% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 12.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (42 ct) | $-18,375 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,470 | $-11,714 | +$10,036 | -$1,050 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-315 | $-11,401 | +$10,349 | -$1,050 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.2σ) | $-2,100 | $-11,089 | +$10,661 | -$1,050 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (44 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.31/sh | +$1,360 cycle +$4,352 [+$748…+$1,083] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$14,687 NOT cap gain +$7,063 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$1,588 cycle +$4,580 [+$633…+$1,179] · 94% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$12,107 NOT cap gain +$9,643 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$713 cycle +$3,705 [-$398…+$259] · 48% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$10,115 NOT cap gain +$11,635 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$489 cycle +$3,481 [-$295…+$158] · 43% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$13,206 NOT cap gain +$8,544 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$0.50/sh | -$2,202 cycle +$790 [-$3,987…-$2,876] | 90% surv 89% | -$2,705 NOT cap gain +$19,045 |
| budget: banked $2,992 debit $2,202 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$790 cash · rolled 44 ct earn ≈ $2,227/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,220/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,500/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($11,000/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,523/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,003 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 38.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 16.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (44 ct) | $-19,272 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,992 | $-16,047 | +$5,703 | +$352 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,232 | $-15,513 | +$6,237 | -$1,408 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-528 | $-14,979 | +$6,771 | -$3,168 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.13 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,980 | $-14,616 | +$7,134 | -$4,048 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,137 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.27/sh | +$1,255 cycle +$3,605 [-$792…+$3,305] · 64% credit | 76% surv 66% | -$21,556 NOT cap gain +$48,432 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,065 | 27 Jul 2026 | 7d left | +$1.08/sh | +$216 cycle +$2,566 [-$743…+$1,790] · 59% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$35,558 NOT cap gain +$34,430 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,152 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$11 cycle +$2,361 [-$2,375…+$1,940] · 45% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$20,100 NOT cap gain +$49,888 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,187 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$10.66/sh | -$2,131 cycle +$219 [-$4,995…-$406] · 22% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$15,942 NOT cap gain +$54,046 |
| budget: banked $2,350 debit $2,131 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$219 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $16,443/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,812/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,527/mo) | -50% |
| vs normal income ($35,054/mo) | 25% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,353/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,235 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 60.5% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 15.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-70,188 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,054.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,054-1,077.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,077.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,065.00 (1.3σ) | $2,350 | $-35,774 | +$34,214 | +$2,064 |
| +2.5% | $1,091.62 (1.5σ) | $-2,975 | $-36,307 | +$33,681 | -$3,261 |
| +5% | $1,118.25 (1.7σ) | $-8,300 | $-36,839 | +$33,149 | -$8,586 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (2.5σ) | $-28,650 | $-38,874 | +$31,114 | -$28,936 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,107 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$8.22/sh | +$1,644 cycle +$4,744 [-$811…+$2,860] · 65% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$25,817 NOT cap gain +$44,171 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,040 | 27 Jul 2026 | 7d left | +$1.77/sh | +$354 cycle +$3,454 [-$816…+$1,513] · 55% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$39,170 NOT cap gain +$30,818 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,042 | 27 Jul 2026 | 7d left | +$0.69/sh | +$137 cycle +$3,237 [-$1,094…+$1,229] · 49% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$39,024 NOT cap gain +$30,964 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,127 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$91 cycle +$3,191 [-$2,641…+$1,108] · 39% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$23,770 NOT cap gain +$46,218 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,177 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$14.43/sh | -$2,886 cycle +$214 [-$6,211…-$2,073] · 11% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$17,747 NOT cap gain +$52,241 |
| budget: banked $3,100 debit $2,886 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$214 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $14,714/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,527/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($35,054/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,165/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,485 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 69.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 17.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-70,203 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,029.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,030-1,056.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,056.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,040.00 (1.1σ) | $3,100 | $-39,524 | +$30,464 | +$2,814 |
| +2.5% | $1,066.00 (1.3σ) | $-2,100 | $-40,044 | +$29,944 | -$2,386 |
| +5% | $1,092.00 (1.5σ) | $-7,300 | $-40,564 | +$29,424 | -$7,586 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (2.5σ) | $-32,900 | $-43,124 | +$26,864 | -$33,186 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,062 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$10.69/sh | +$2,137 cycle +$6,927 [-$589…+$2,704] · 65% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$31,733 NOT cap gain +$38,255 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,000 | 27 Jul 2026 | 7d left | +$2.81/sh | +$561 cycle +$5,351 [-$864…+$1,100] · 46% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$44,473 NOT cap gain +$25,515 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,002 | 27 Jul 2026 | 7d left | +$1.72/sh | +$344 cycle +$5,134 [-$1,118…+$861] · 41% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$44,326 NOT cap gain +$25,662 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,087 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.99/sh | +$198 cycle +$4,988 [-$2,906…+$531] · 31% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$29,173 NOT cap gain +$40,815 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,177 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$23.84/sh | -$4,767 cycle +$23 [-$9,013…-$4,871] · 2% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$17,938 NOT cap gain +$52,050 |
| budget: banked $4,790 debit $4,767 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,829/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $17,962/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,527/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($35,054/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $17,503/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,795 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 81.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 20.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-70,193 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $990.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $990-1,024.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,024.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,000.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,790 | $-45,034 | +$24,954 | +$4,504 |
| +2.5% | $1,025.00 (1.0σ) | $-210 | $-45,534 | +$24,454 | -$496 |
| +5% | $1,050.00 (1.2σ) | $-5,210 | $-46,034 | +$23,954 | -$5,496 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (2.5σ) | $-39,210 | $-49,434 | +$20,554 | -$39,496 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$977 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$14.84/sh | +$2,968 cycle +$12,728 [-$544…+$1,647] · 65% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$41,233 NOT cap gain +$28,755 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$925 | 27 Jul 2026 | 7d left | +$4.51/sh | +$901 cycle +$10,661 [-$1,025…+$238] · 31% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$52,663 NOT cap gain +$17,325 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$932 | 27 Jul 2026 | 7d left | +$0.73/sh | +$145 cycle +$9,905 [-$1,814…-$547] · 16% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$52,156 NOT cap gain +$17,832 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,017 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$67 cycle +$9,827 [-$4,088…-$1,449] · 12% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$36,933 NOT cap gain +$33,055 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,187 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$35.06/sh | -$7,013 cycle +$2,747 [-$13,523…-$9,358] | 91% surv 89% | -$13,414 NOT cap gain +$56,574 |
| budget: banked $9,760 debit $7,013 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,747 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,678/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $36,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,527/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($35,054/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $36,140/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,825 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 101.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 25.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-70,228 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $915.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $916-975.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $975.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $925.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $9,760 | $-53,564 | +$16,424 | +$9,474 |
| +2.5% | $948.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,135 | $-54,027 | +$15,961 | +$4,849 |
| +5% | $971.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $510 | $-54,489 | +$15,499 | +$224 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (2.5σ) | $-49,240 | $-59,464 | +$10,524 | -$49,526 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$113 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$2.97/sh | +$1,190 cycle +$1,542 [+$1,130…+$1,627] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$22,545 NOT cap gain +$9,111 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$124 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.88/sh | +$351 cycle +$703 [+$78…+$751] · 80% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$18,510 NOT cap gain +$13,146 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$119 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$99 cycle +$451 [-$164…+$406] · 60% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$21,008 NOT cap gain +$10,648 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$126 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$9 cycle +$361 [-$347…+$391] · 50% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$17,954 NOT cap gain +$13,702 |
| SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,320/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,040/mo) | -57% |
| vs normal income ($6,080/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,028/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,382 |
| … as % of IC ($4,800) | 445.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,800) | 37.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-31,706 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $111.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $112-114.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $114.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $113.00 (1.4σ) | $352 | $-23,735 | +$7,921 | +$320 |
| +2.5% | $115.82 (1.6σ) | $-778 | $-23,596 | +$8,060 | -$810 |
| +5% | $118.65 (1.8σ) | $-1,908 | $-23,457 | +$8,199 | -$1,940 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $161.00 (5.2σ) | $-18,848 | $-21,373 | +$10,283 | -$16,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$109 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$2.81/sh | +$1,126 cycle +$1,698 [+$956…+$1,409] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$24,186 NOT cap gain +$7,470 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$120 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.62/sh | +$247 cycle +$819 [-$130…+$485] · 63% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$20,191 NOT cap gain +$11,465 |
| SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$115 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$43 cycle +$615 [-$280…+$218] · 43% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$22,641 NOT cap gain +$9,015 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$123 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.29/sh | -$115 cycle +$457 [-$553…+$98] · 30% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$19,205 NOT cap gain +$12,451 |
| budget: banked $572 debit $115 (20% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$457 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $3,276/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,145/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,040/mo) | -29% |
| vs normal income ($6,080/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,852/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,762 |
| … as % of IC ($4,800) | 474.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,800) | 40.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-31,708 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $107.91 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $108-110.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $110.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $109.00 (1.0σ) | $572 | $-25,312 | +$6,344 | +$540 |
| +2.5% | $111.72 (1.2σ) | $-518 | $-25,178 | +$6,478 | -$550 |
| +5% | $114.45 (1.5σ) | $-1,608 | $-25,044 | +$6,612 | -$1,640 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $161.00 (5.2σ) | $-20,228 | $-22,753 | +$8,903 | -$17,860 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$106 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$2.70/sh | +$1,078 cycle +$1,890 [+$860…+$1,206] · 100% credit | 70% surv 53% | -$25,341 NOT cap gain +$6,315 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$114 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.40/sh | +$562 cycle +$1,374 [+$177…+$667] · 87% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$22,332 NOT cap gain +$9,324 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$117 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$172 cycle +$984 [-$275…+$237] · 43% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$21,374 NOT cap gain +$10,282 |
| SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$112 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$2 cycle +$814 [-$379…+$30] · 27% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$23,790 NOT cap gain +$7,866 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$125 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.82/sh | -$730 cycle +$82 [-$1,403…-$748] · 3% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$18,682 NOT cap gain +$12,974 |
| budget: banked $812 debit $730 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,099/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,045/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,040/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($6,080/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,752/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,722 |
| … as % of IC ($4,800) | 494.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,800) | 41.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-31,704 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $104.94 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $105-108.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $108.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $106.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $812 | $-26,419 | +$5,237 | +$780 |
| +2.5% | $108.65 (1.0σ) | $-248 | $-26,289 | +$5,367 | -$280 |
| +5% | $111.30 (1.2σ) | $-1,308 | $-26,159 | +$5,497 | -$1,340 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $161.00 (5.2σ) | $-21,188 | $-23,713 | +$7,943 | -$18,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$99 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$2.43/sh | +$972 cycle +$2,652 [+$669…+$862] · 100% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$27,724 NOT cap gain +$3,932 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$106 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.31/sh | +$523 cycle +$2,203 [-$1…+$308] · 75% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$25,096 NOT cap gain +$6,560 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$104 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$68 cycle +$1,748 [-$408…-$121] · 15% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$26,450 NOT cap gain +$5,206 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$110 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$9 cycle +$1,689 [-$627…-$240] · 11% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$23,813 NOT cap gain +$7,843 |
| SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$119 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$3.26/sh | -$1,305 cycle +$375 [-$2,324…-$1,684] | 90% surv 89% | -$21,084 NOT cap gain +$10,572 |
| budget: banked $1,680 debit $1,305 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$375 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,300/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,040/mo) | +107% |
| vs normal income ($6,080/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,008/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,654 |
| … as % of IC ($4,800) | 534.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,800) | 45.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.2 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-31,726 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $98.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $98-103.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $103.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $99.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,680 | $-28,696 | +$2,960 | +$1,648 |
| +2.5% | $101.47 (≤1σ, normal week) | $690 | $-28,574 | +$3,082 | +$658 |
| +5% | $103.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-300 | $-28,452 | +$3,204 | -$332 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $161.00 (5.2σ) | $-23,120 | $-25,645 | +$6,011 | -$20,752 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$84 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.69/sh | +$69 cycle +$79 [+$55…+$112] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$883 NOT cap gain +$777 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$12 cycle +$22 [-$17…+$56] · 65% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$665 NOT cap gain +$995 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$86 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$3 cycle +$13 [-$20…+$40] · 57% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$815 NOT cap gain +$845 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $38/mo |
| vs 50% target ($283/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($566/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $38/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$973 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 34.3% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 19.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-1,680 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $83.66 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-84.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $84.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $84.50 (1.4σ) | $10 | $-952 | +$708 | -$25 |
| +2.5% | $86.61 (1.8σ) | $-201 | $-965 | +$695 | -$175 |
| +5% | $88.73 (2.2σ) | $-413 | $-978 | +$682 | -$175 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (3.1σ) | $-880 | $-1,007 | +$653 | -$175 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$82 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.64/sh | +$64 cycle +$114 [+$33…+$79] · 95% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$1,130 NOT cap gain +$530 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$83 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.65/sh | +$65 cycle +$115 [+$22…+$81] · 90% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$995 NOT cap gain +$665 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.38/sh | +$38 cycle +$88 [+$3…+$52] · 79% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$1,115 NOT cap gain +$545 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$4 cycle +$54 [-$49…+$18] · 32% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$915 NOT cap gain +$745 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.42/sh | -$42 cycle +$8 [-$104…-$32] · 13% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$820 NOT cap gain +$840 |
| budget: banked $50 debit $42 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $282/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($283/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($566/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $188/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,233 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 43.4% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 24.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-1,688 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $81-82.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $50 | $-1,194 | +$466 | +$15 |
| +2.5% | $83.54 (1.2σ) | $-154 | $-1,206 | +$454 | -$189 |
| +5% | $85.58 (1.6σ) | $-358 | $-1,219 | +$441 | -$393 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (3.1σ) | $-1,140 | $-1,267 | +$393 | -$435 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.62/sh | +$62 cycle +$142 [+$26…+$72] · 94% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$1,195 NOT cap gain +$465 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$82 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.61/sh | +$61 cycle +$141 [+$13…+$67] · 86% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$1,062 NOT cap gain +$598 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.37/sh | +$37 cycle +$117 [-$4…+$42] · 70% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$1,181 NOT cap gain +$479 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$1 cycle +$81 [-$58…+$1] · 26% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$982 NOT cap gain +$678 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$85 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.44/sh | -$44 cycle +$36 [-$112…-$47] · 9% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$886 NOT cap gain +$774 |
| budget: banked $80 debit $44 (55% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$36 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $270/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($283/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($566/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,303 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 45.9% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 25.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-1,698 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-81.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $80 | $-1,258 | +$402 | +$45 |
| +2.5% | $82.51 (1.0σ) | $-121 | $-1,270 | +$390 | -$156 |
| +5% | $84.53 (1.4σ) | $-323 | $-1,282 | +$378 | -$358 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (3.1σ) | $-1,210 | $-1,337 | +$323 | -$505 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.58/sh | +$58 cycle +$233 [+$9…+$35] · 84% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$1,339 NOT cap gain +$321 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$79 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.64/sh | +$64 cycle +$239 [-$3…+$34] · 72% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$1,246 NOT cap gain +$414 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$33 cycle +$208 [-$23…+$8] · 38% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$1,324 NOT cap gain +$336 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$1 cycle +$176 [-$83…-$36] · 9% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$1,169 NOT cap gain +$491 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$1.70/sh | -$170 cycle +$5 [-$317…-$227] | 91% surv 91% | -$730 NOT cap gain +$930 |
| budget: banked $175 debit $170 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $60/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($283/mo) | +132% |
| vs normal income ($566/mo) | 116% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $656/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,458 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 51.3% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 28.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-1,683 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-79.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $175 | $-1,398 | +$262 | +$140 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-20 | $-1,410 | +$250 | -$55 |
| +5% | $81.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-215 | $-1,421 | +$239 | -$250 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (3.1σ) | $-1,365 | $-1,492 | +$168 | -$660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$380 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$4.42/sh | +$442 cycle +$677 [+$348…+$678] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$148 NOT cap gain +$4,907 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$397 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.79/sh | +$179 cycle +$415 [-$35…+$400] · 72% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$1,120 SAFE cap gain +$6,175 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$390 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$17 cycle +$253 [-$153…+$203] · 52% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$283 SAFE cap gain +$5,338 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$402 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.08/sh | -$8 cycle +$227 [-$250…+$193] · 46% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$1,382 SAFE cap gain +$6,437 |
| budget: banked $236 debit $8 (4% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$227 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,121/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $883/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,890/mo) | -53% |
| vs normal income ($3,780/mo) | 23% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $782/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($9,290) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($28,290) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-5,067 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $376.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $376-382.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $382.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $380.00 (1.4σ) | $236 | $-589 | +$4,466 | +$1,316 |
| +2.5% | $389.50 (1.6σ) | $-714 | $-684 | +$4,371 | +$1,316 |
| +5% | $399.00 (1.9σ) | $-1,664 | $-779 | +$4,276 | +$1,316 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$362 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$4.75/sh | +$475 cycle +$905 [+$286…+$551] · 98% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$1,495 NOT cap gain +$3,560 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$374 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$3.93/sh | +$393 cycle +$823 [+$102…+$452] · 84% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$497 NOT cap gain +$4,558 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$372 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.53/sh | +$53 cycle +$483 [-$202…+$91] · 36% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$1,062 NOT cap gain +$3,993 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$384 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$23 cycle +$453 [-$335…+$55] · 30% credit | 76% surv 68% | +$33 SAFE cap gain +$5,088 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$394 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.95/sh | -$295 cycle +$135 [-$724…-$294] · 9% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$615 SAFE cap gain +$5,670 |
| budget: banked $430 debit $295 (69% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$135 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,546/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,612/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,890/mo) | -15% |
| vs normal income ($3,780/mo) | 43% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,511/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,393 |
| … as % of IC ($9,290) | 15.0% |
| … as % of ML ($28,290) | 4.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-5,135 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $358.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $359-367.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $367.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $362.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $430 | $-1,970 | +$3,085 | -$240 |
| +2.5% | $371.56 (1.1σ) | $-476 | $-2,061 | +$2,994 | -$240 |
| +5% | $380.62 (1.4σ) | $-1,382 | $-2,151 | +$2,904 | -$240 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$352 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$4.92/sh | +$492 cycle +$1,147 [+$278…+$489] · 98% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$2,153 NOT cap gain +$2,902 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$364 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$4.06/sh | +$406 cycle +$1,061 [+$70…+$369] · 84% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$1,159 NOT cap gain +$3,896 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$362 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.70/sh | +$70 cycle +$725 [-$222…+$23] · 28% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$1,720 NOT cap gain +$3,335 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$374 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.39/sh | +$39 cycle +$694 [-$370…-$35] · 22% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$626 NOT cap gain +$4,429 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$400 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$6.12/sh | -$612 cycle +$43 [-$1,185…-$739] | 84% surv 82% | +$973 SAFE cap gain +$6,028 |
| budget: banked $655 debit $612 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $960/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,456/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,890/mo) | +30% |
| vs normal income ($3,780/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,355/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,168 |
| … as % of IC ($9,290) | 23.3% |
| … as % of ML ($28,290) | 7.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-5,183 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $348.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $349-360.32 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $360.32 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $352.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $655 | $-2,645 | +$2,410 | -$15 |
| +2.5% | $361.31 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-226 | $-2,733 | +$2,322 | -$896 |
| +5% | $370.12 (1.1σ) | $-1,108 | $-2,821 | +$2,234 | -$1,015 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$340 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$5.10/sh | +$510 cycle +$1,580 [+$251…+$393] · 98% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$2,845 NOT cap gain +$2,210 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$352 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$4.21/sh | +$421 cycle +$1,491 [+$14…+$249] · 77% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$1,854 NOT cap gain +$3,201 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$362 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$55 cycle +$1,125 [-$437…-$150] · 11% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$1,320 NOT cap gain +$3,735 |
| SS $363 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$352 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$5 cycle +$1,075 [-$363…-$150] · 9% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$2,270 NOT cap gain +$2,785 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$392 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$9.28/sh | -$928 cycle +$142 [-$1,710…-$1,220] | 90% surv 90% | +$397 SAFE cap gain +$5,452 |
| budget: banked $1,070 debit $928 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$142 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $594/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,012/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,890/mo) | +112% |
| vs normal income ($3,780/mo) | 106% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,911/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,003 |
| … as % of IC ($9,290) | 32.3% |
| … as % of ML ($28,290) | 10.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-5,178 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $336.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $337-351.93 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $351.93 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $340.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,070 | $-3,355 | +$1,700 | +$400 |
| +2.5% | $348.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $220 | $-3,440 | +$1,615 | -$450 |
| +5% | $357.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-630 | $-3,525 | +$1,530 | -$1,300 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $362.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,220 | $-3,584 | +$1,471 | -$1,850 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $371.52 | $361.87 | $11.18 | $-1.42 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $12.60/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GOOG 1:1); only $0.00 is live theta (~$0). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. Rolling $360→$380 banks +$3.37/sh (+$5,051) and sells fatter forward theta, you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it. ▸ Gate on price: hold while GOOG is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $380, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 15x $360C at ~$11.57 ($17,355), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 15x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $371.52 | $361.87 | $11.18 | $-1.42 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $12.60/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GOOG 1:1); only $0.00 is live theta (~$0). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. Rolling $360→$380 banks +$3.37/sh (+$5,051) and sells fatter forward theta (still $18 below BE SS $398, a partial recovery), you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it. ▸ Gate on price: hold while GOOG is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $380, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 15x $360C at ~$11.57 ($17,355), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310-1299 | Main:1299 | 10x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $371.52 | $361.79 | $11.18 | $-1.42 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $12.60/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GOOG 1:1); only $0.00 is live theta (~$0). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. Rolling $360→$380 banks +$3.37/sh (+$3,368) and sells fatter forward theta (still $12 below BE SS $392, a partial recovery), you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it. ▸ Gate on price: hold while GOOG is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $380, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $360C at ~$11.57 ($11,570), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310-1782 | Joint:1782 | 5x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $371.52 | $370.64 | $4.16 | $1.56 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $2.60/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GOOG 1:1); only $1.56 is live theta (~$780). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. Rolling $370→$372.5 banks +$7.14/sh (+$3,568) and sells fatter forward theta (still $20 below BE SS $392, a partial recovery), you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it. ▸ Gate on price: hold while GOOG is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $372.5, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $370C at ~$4.26 ($2,132), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (15d) | $679.72 | $653.94 | $67.61 | $16.11 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $51.50/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $16.11 is live theta (~$4,833). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $369.69 | $379.86 | $0.56 | $0.56 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.31 OTM. The $0.56 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$810 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $377.11 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. 🚪 Escape paths deferred , GLD is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers GLD. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (5d) | $753.23 | $764.39 | $0.34 | $0.34 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.77 OTM. The $0.34 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$411 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $764.39 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , SPY is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers SPY. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $155C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $135.34 | $155.80 | $0.17 | $0.17 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.66 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$375 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $155.80 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $164.80 | $176.26 | $1.48 | $1.48 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.20 OTM. The $1.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$970 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $174.12 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 8x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $164.80 | $176.26 | $1.48 | $1.48 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.20 OTM. The $1.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$970 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $174.12 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $76.72 | $81.90 | $0.18 | $0.18 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.78 OTM. The $0.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$665 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $81.09 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $425C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $399.00 | $429.66 | $7.36 | $7.36 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 26.00 OTM. The $7.36 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,383 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $429.66 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $490C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $454.28 | $493.00 | $1.31 | $1.31 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 35.72 OTM. The $1.31 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$295 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $493.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $190C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $175.58 | $191.30 | $0.49 | $0.49 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.42 OTM. The $0.49 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$625 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $191.30 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10x $115C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $106.25 | $115.42 | $0.13 | $0.13 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.75 OTM. The $0.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$370 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $115.42 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $43C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $38.00 | $43.30 | $0.19 | $0.19 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.00 OTM. The $0.19 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$505 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $42.78 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $43C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) | $38.00 | $43.31 | $0.19 | $0.19 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.00 OTM. The $0.19 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$514 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $42.78 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) | $209.91 | $219.51 | $3.22 | $3.22 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.59 OTM. The $3.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$978 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $219.51 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) | $94.44 | $100.97 | $0.38 | $0.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.56 OTM. The $0.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,104 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.97 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) | $36.90 | $41.03 | $1.58 | $1.58 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.10 OTM. The $1.58 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,473 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $41.03 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) | $101.20 | $124.00 | $2.50 | $2.50 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.80 OTM. The $2.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,475 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) | $38.00 | $48.42 | $0.40 | $0.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.00 OTM. The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$746 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.42 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) | $38.00 | $48.44 | $0.40 | $0.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.00 OTM. The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$786 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.44 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (15d) | $256.38 | $283.10 | $2.88 | $2.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.62 OTM. The $2.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,048 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $283.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (15d) | $164.80 | $193.34 | $3.97 | $3.97 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 25.20 OTM. The $3.97 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$988 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $193.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SOFI | RetireInc:7291 | 35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (15d) | $17.97 | $23.27 | $0.11 | $0.11 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.03 OTM. The $0.11 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$770 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.27 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETHA ↗ | Main:1299 | 50 | $14.38 | $17.78 | 23.6% | $18 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · 98% surv | 4% | $50 | $100/mo (33%) | $300/mo | sell 50x $18 CC |
| MU-LC880 ↗ | Main:1299 | 5 | $887.98 | $1,037.72 | 16.9% | $1040 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · 87% surv | 27% | $7,750 | $29,062/mo (33%) | $87,635/mo | sell 5x $1040 CC |
| RIOT ↗BBC | Joint:1782 | 50 | $19.89 | $21.00 | 5.6% | $22.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · 84% surv | 34% | $1,600 | $6,000/mo (37%) | $16,400/mo | sell 50x $22.50 CC |
| CLSK ↗ | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $13.88 | $16.51 | 18.9% | $17 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · 83% surv | 36% | $1,175 | $1,602/mo (28%) | $5,700/mo | sell 25x $17 CC |
| MARA-LC40 ↗ | Main:1299 | 200 | $12.09 | $14.00 | 15.8% | $14.50 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · 81% surv | 40% | $8,400 | $11,455/mo (30%) | $37,600/mo | sell 200x $14.50 CC |
| MARA-LC25 ↗ | Neville:0865 | 250 | $12.09 | $14.45 | 19.5% | $14.50 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · 81% surv | 40% | $10,500 | $14,318/mo (30%) | $47,000/mo | sell 250x $14.50 CC |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10 | $256.25 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (15d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $490C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (15d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $425C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| GOOG-LC310-1299 | Main:1299 | 10 | $392.50 | 10x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC310-1782 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 15x $360C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $43C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $43C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (15d) |
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10 | $108.93 | 10x $115C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (8d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $190C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| SOFI | RetireInc:7291 | 35 | $15.75 | 35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (15d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $155C 17 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (5d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 14 | 58% | 57% | -1pp |
| 60-70% | 46 | 64% | 72% | +8pp |
| 70-80% | 61 | 77% | 95% | +18pp |
| 80-90% | 76 | 85% | 99% | +14pp |
| 90-100% | 130 | 95% | 100% | +5pp |
Touch odds: predicted 35% avg vs realized 24% touch rate over 327 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 48 real buyback(s) recorded · 13 roll(s), net +$1.01/sh avg.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.