FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $178,496/mo (52% of normal target)
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 50 | $14.97 | $19.66 | 50 × $17.50 $450 cyc · $1,929/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 34 × $16.50 $680 cyc · $2,914/mo 82% surv · T:40% | 39 × $16 $1,014 cyc · $4,346/mo 74% surv · T:54% | 48 × $15.50 $2,064 cyc · $8,846/mo 64% surv · T:74% | - | -$10,073 (32.2% IC) | 31.3% |
| CLSK ↗⚡ER 21d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 25 | $12.52 | $17.95 | 25 × $15 $150 cyc · $643/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 20 × $14 $360 cyc · $1,543/mo 81% surv · T:59% | 13 × $13 $546 cyc · $2,340/mo 63% surv · T:77% | 25 × $13 $1,050 cyc · $4,500/mo 63% surv · T:77% | - | -$7,536 (80.6% IC) | 43.4% |
| COIN-LC165 ↗⚡ER 14d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 8 | $154.31 | $218.42 | 8 × $177.50 $672 cyc · $2,880/mo 91% surv · T:18% | 🎯 8 × $170 $1,464 cyc · $6,274/mo 84% surv · T:36% | 8 × $165 $2,304 cyc · $9,874/mo 76% surv · T:50% | 7 × $155 $4,375 cyc · $18,750/mo 54% surv · T:96% | $1,352 | -$37,274 (277.3% IC) | 41.5% |
| COPX ↗ ⚐ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 1 | $72.06 | $94.68 | 1 × $79 $10 cyc · $43/mo 93% surv · T:13% | 1 × $75 $40 cyc · $171/mo 75% surv · T:52% | 🎯 1 × $74 $60 cyc · $257/mo 67% surv · T:52% | 1 × $72 $125 cyc · $536/mo 51% surv · T:99+% | $35 | -$2,008 (70.7% IC) | 31.4% |
| ENPH ↗⚡ER 12d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 10 | $40.68 | $59.23 | 10 × $53 $60 cyc · $257/mo 97% surv · T:5% | 9 × $44 $495 cyc · $2,121/mo 76% surv · T:49% | 🎯 9 × $43 $765 cyc · $3,279/mo 67% surv · T:53% | 9 × $40.50 $1,485 cyc · $6,364/mo 52% surv · T:99+% | $806 | -$13,839 (189.6% IC) | 45.6% |
| ETHA ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 50 | $13.70 | $18.00 | — | 31 × $14.50 $310 cyc · $1,329/mo 82% surv · T:37% | 🎯 46 × $14.50 $460 cyc · $1,971/mo 82% surv · T:30% | 40 × $14 $920 cyc · $3,943/mo 65% surv · T:72% | - | -$15,627 (72.2% IC) | 31.4% |
| MARA-LC25 ↗⚡ER 12d Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 250 | $10.96 | $14.32 | 🎯 250 × $13 $2,000 cyc · $8,571/mo 90% surv · T:33% | 146 × $12 $2,774 cyc · $11,889/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 221 × $12 $4,199 cyc · $17,996/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 171 × $11 $8,379 cyc · $35,910/mo 54% surv · T:98% | $6 | -$31,101 (88.9% IC) | 30.7% |
| MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 12d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 200 | $10.96 | $13.59 | 🎯 200 × $13 $1,600 cyc · $6,857/mo 90% surv · T:34% | 117 × $12 $2,223 cyc · $9,527/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 177 × $12 $3,363 cyc · $14,413/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 137 × $11 $6,713 cyc · $28,770/mo 54% surv · T:98% | - | -$10,140 (92.2% IC) | 24.0% |
| MU-LC880 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 5 | $828.53 | $1,058.78 | 5 × $990 $3,300 cyc · $14,143/mo 90% surv · T:20% | 🎯 5 × $950 $5,500 cyc · $23,571/mo 85% surv · T:35% | 5 × $915 $8,750 cyc · $37,500/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 5 × $855 $17,225 cyc · $73,821/mo 61% surv · T:82% | $9,776 | -$48,888 (65.8% IC) | 27.8% |
| MU-LC970 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 2 | $828.53 | $1,249.92 | 2 × $990 $1,320 cyc · $5,657/mo 90% surv · T:20% | 🎯 2 × $950 $2,200 cyc · $9,429/mo 85% surv · T:35% | 2 × $915 $3,500 cyc · $15,000/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 2 × $855 $6,890 cyc · $29,529/mo 61% surv · T:82% | $2,449 | -$57,785 (115.6% IC) | 50.9% |
| NEM ↗⚡ER 7d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 5 | $89.00 | $117.30 | 5 × $100 $200 cyc · $857/mo 95% surv · T:11% | 5 × $96 $275 cyc · $1,179/mo 82% surv · T:36% | 🎯⚡ 5 × $95 $375 cyc · $1,607/mo 79% surv · T:30% | 5 × $93 $800 cyc · $3,429/mo 71% surv · T:59% | $408 | -$10,774 (79.7% IC) | 31.8% |
| QCOM ↗⚡ER 13d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 5 | $166.28 | $229.56 | 5 × $187.50 $420 cyc · $1,800/mo 90% surv · T:20% | 🎯 5 × $180 $875 cyc · $3,750/mo 81% surv · T:43% | 5 × $175 $1,415 cyc · $6,064/mo 72% surv · T:57% | 5 × $167.50 $2,500 cyc · $10,714/mo 55% surv · T:93% | $1,446 | -$23,904 (140.6% IC) | 38.1% |
| RKLB ↗⚡ER 21d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 6 | $66.25 | $148.63 | 6 × $79 $240 cyc · $1,029/mo 92% surv · T:17% | 🎯 6 × $75 $486 cyc · $2,083/mo 84% surv · T:34% | 6 × $73 $672 cyc · $2,880/mo 79% surv · T:44% | 6 × $69 $1,344 cyc · $5,760/mo 65% surv · T:74% | - | -$43,692 (274.3% IC) | 124.3% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | ||||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 75 | $14.97 | $36.93 | 75 × $17.50 $675 cyc · $2,893/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 51 × $16.50 $1,020 cyc · $4,371/mo 82% surv · T:39% | 59 × $16 $1,534 cyc · $6,574/mo 74% surv · T:54% | 71 × $15.50 $3,053 cyc · $13,084/mo 64% surv · T:74% | - | -$103,176 (0.0% IC) | 146.7% |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 150 | $14.97 | $20.82 | 150 × $17.50 $1,350 cyc · $5,786/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 101 × $16.50 $2,020 cyc · $8,657/mo 82% surv · T:39% | 117 × $16 $3,042 cyc · $13,037/mo 74% surv · T:54% | 142 × $15.50 $6,106 cyc · $26,169/mo 64% surv · T:74% | - | -$41,637 (0.0% IC) | 39.1% |
| BMNR-LC25 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 50 | $14.97 | $54.86 | 50 × $17.50 $450 cyc · $1,929/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 34 × $16.50 $680 cyc · $2,914/mo 82% surv · T:40% | 39 × $16 $1,014 cyc · $4,346/mo 74% surv · T:54% | 48 × $15.50 $2,064 cyc · $8,846/mo 64% surv · T:74% | - | -$129,731 (137.2% IC) | 266.4% |
| GLXY ↗⚡ER 11d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 125 | $21.59 | $33.98 | 125 × $27 $1,000 cyc · $4,286/mo 95% surv · T:10% | 101 × $24 $2,929 cyc · $12,553/mo 79% surv · T:43% | 🎯 94 × $23.50 $4,418 cyc · $18,934/mo 75% surv · T:39% | 112 × $22 $8,848 cyc · $37,920/mo 58% surv · T:89% | $1,754 | -$94,118 (340.7% IC) | 57.4% |
| MARA-LC20-1299 ↗⚡ER 12d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 200 | $10.96 | $18.15 | 🎯 200 × $13 $1,600 cyc · $6,857/mo 90% surv · T:34% | 117 × $12 $2,223 cyc · $9,527/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 177 × $12 $3,363 cyc · $14,413/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 137 × $11 $6,713 cyc · $28,770/mo 54% surv · T:98% | - | -$101,309 (1333.0% IC) | 65.6% |
| MARA-LC20-1782 ↗⚡ER 12d Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 50 | $10.96 | $19.04 | 🎯 50 × $13 $400 cyc · $1,714/mo 90% surv · T:34% | 30 × $12 $570 cyc · $2,443/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 45 × $12 $855 cyc · $3,664/mo 78% surv · T:47% | 35 × $11 $1,715 cyc · $7,350/mo 54% surv · T:98% | - | -$29,808 (137.7% IC) | 73.7% |
| TOTAL (19) | 1267 | following every 🎯 $26,963 cyc · $115,556/mo | $15,897 cyc · $68,130/mo 18 of 19 | $27,124 cyc · $116,246/mo | $41,649 cyc · $178,496/mo | $82,369 cyc · $353,010/mo | $18,032 | -$812,420 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$743 cycle +$1,193 [+$421…+$1,408] · 90% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$11,061 NOT cap gain +$15,614 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$737 cycle +$1,187 [+$420…+$1,395] · 90% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$10,896 NOT cap gain +$15,779 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$831 cycle +$1,281 [+$150…+$1,480] · 81% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$5,102 NOT cap gain +$21,573 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.04/sh | +$214 cycle +$664 [-$563…+$759] · 54% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$19 NOT cap gain +$26,656 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,929/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $600/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,363 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 33.2% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 14.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-26,825 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.5σ) | $450 | $-11,804 | +$14,871 | +$1,450 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.8σ) | $-1,738 | $-11,498 | +$15,177 | +$1,450 |
| +5% | $18.38 (2.1σ) | $-3,925 | $-11,192 | +$15,483 | +$1,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (34 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$562 cycle +$1,242 [+$215…+$713] · 90% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$16,061 NOT cap gain +$10,614 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$567 cycle +$1,247 [+$215…+$720] · 90% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$16,227 NOT cap gain +$10,448 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$603 cycle +$1,283 [-$1…+$699] · 75% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$11,168 NOT cap gain +$15,507 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$177 cycle +$857 [-$486…+$246] · 40% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$7,494 NOT cap gain +$19,181 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.18/sh | -$609 cycle +$71 [-$1,468…-$563] · 10% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$6,230 NOT cap gain +$20,445 |
| budget: banked $680 debit $609 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 34 ct earn ≈ $1,644/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,914/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,614/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,073 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 32.2% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 14.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (34 ct) | $-18,190 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $680 | $-16,794 | +$9,881 | -$340 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (1.2σ) | $-722 | $-15,845 | +$10,830 | -$1,742 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.4σ) | $-2,125 | $-15,417 | +$11,258 | -$2,040 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (39 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$675 cycle +$1,689 [+$209…+$691] · 88% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$18,614 NOT cap gain +$8,061 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$681 cycle +$1,695 [+$208…+$697] · 88% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$18,779 NOT cap gain +$7,896 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$707 cycle +$1,721 [-$62…+$630] · 72% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$12,915 NOT cap gain +$13,760 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$215 cycle +$1,229 [-$629…+$102] · 32% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$8,807 NOT cap gain +$17,868 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.23/sh | -$899 cycle +$115 [-$2,028…-$1,076] · 2% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$5,321 NOT cap gain +$21,354 |
| budget: banked $1,014 debit $899 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$115 cash · rolled 39 ct earn ≈ $1,552/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,346/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,724/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,270 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 42.5% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 18.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (39 ct) | $-20,982 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,014 | $-19,460 | +$7,215 | -$156 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-546 | $-18,740 | +$7,935 | -$1,716 |
| +5% | $16.80 (1.1σ) | $-2,106 | $-18,020 | +$8,655 | -$3,276 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.13 (1.3σ) | $-3,393 | $-17,569 | +$9,106 | -$4,056 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (48 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$864 cycle +$2,928 [+$183…+$633] · 85% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$20,495 NOT cap gain +$6,180 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$872 cycle +$2,936 [+$180…+$639] · 85% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$20,658 NOT cap gain +$6,017 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$883 cycle +$2,947 [-$251…+$494] · 62% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$14,776 NOT cap gain +$11,899 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$273 cycle +$2,337 [-$923…-$152] · 18% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$9,792 NOT cap gain +$16,883 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.41/sh | -$1,983 cycle +$81 [-$3,873…-$2,664] | 90% surv 90% | +$1,702 SAFE cap gain +$28,377 |
| budget: banked $2,064 debit $1,983 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$81 cash · rolled 48 ct earn ≈ $711/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,846/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,646/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,916 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 57.3% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 25.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (48 ct) | $-25,728 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,064 | $-21,530 | +$5,145 | +$624 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (≤1σ, normal week) | $204 | $-21,181 | +$5,494 | -$1,236 |
| +5% | $16.28 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,656 | $-20,833 | +$5,842 | -$3,096 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.13 (1.3σ) | $-5,760 | $-20,089 | +$6,586 | -$6,576 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (75 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$1,115 cycle +$1,790 [+$645…+$2,137] · 90% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$152,973 NOT cap gain +$20,727 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$1,106 cycle +$1,781 [+$642…+$2,115] · 90% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$152,757 NOT cap gain +$20,943 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,247 cycle +$1,922 [+$258…+$2,225] · 82% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$145,132 NOT cap gain +$28,568 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.04/sh | +$320 cycle +$995 [-$796…+$1,118] · 55% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$138,573 NOT cap gain +$35,127 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,893/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,509/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($13,018/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,893/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$145,054 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 191.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.1 mo |
| Surgical close (75 ct) | $-173,925 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.5σ) | $675 | $-154,088 | +$19,612 | +$525 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.8σ) | $-2,606 | $-154,095 | +$19,605 | -$2,756 |
| +5% | $18.38 (2.1σ) | $-5,888 | $-154,101 | +$19,599 | -$6,038 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (14.7σ) | $-161,550 | $-154,412 | +$19,288 | -$33,225 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (51 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$850 cycle +$1,870 [+$337…+$1,180] · 89% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$160,330 NOT cap gain +$13,370 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$843 cycle +$1,863 [+$337…+$1,169] · 89% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$160,112 NOT cap gain +$13,588 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$904 cycle +$1,924 [+$68…+$1,166] · 76% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$152,566 NOT cap gain +$21,134 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$266 cycle +$1,286 [-$670…+$408] · 43% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$145,720 NOT cap gain +$27,980 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.18/sh | -$914 cycle +$106 [-$2,090…-$804] · 8% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$143,157 NOT cap gain +$30,543 |
| budget: banked $1,020 debit $914 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$106 cash · rolled 51 ct earn ≈ $2,466/mo while parked; 24 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,371/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,509/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($13,018/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,474/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$103,176 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 135.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.9 mo |
| Surgical close (51 ct) | $-118,192 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,020 | $-161,180 | +$12,520 | +$918 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (1.2σ) | $-1,084 | $-160,196 | +$13,504 | -$1,186 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.4σ) | $-3,187 | $-159,212 | +$14,488 | -$3,290 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (14.7σ) | $-114,393 | $-148,319 | +$25,381 | -$27,132 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (59 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,021 cycle +$2,555 [+$321…+$1,085] · 88% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$163,179 NOT cap gain +$10,521 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,030 cycle +$2,564 [+$320…+$1,095] · 88% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$163,395 NOT cap gain +$10,305 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$1,069 cycle +$2,603 [-$113…+$995] · 71% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$155,646 NOT cap gain +$18,054 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$325 cycle +$1,859 [-$950…+$184] · 32% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$148,905 NOT cap gain +$24,795 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.23/sh | -$1,360 cycle +$174 [-$3,081…-$1,600] · 2% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$143,105 NOT cap gain +$30,595 |
| budget: banked $1,534 debit $1,360 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$174 cash · rolled 59 ct earn ≈ $2,347/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,574/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,509/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($13,018/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,643/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$121,956 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 160.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.4 mo |
| Surgical close (59 ct) | $-136,909 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,534 | $-164,424 | +$9,276 | +$1,416 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-826 | $-163,790 | +$9,910 | -$944 |
| +5% | $16.80 (1.1σ) | $-3,186 | $-163,156 | +$10,544 | -$3,304 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (14.7σ) | $-134,933 | $-155,171 | +$18,529 | -$33,984 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (71 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$1,278 cycle +$4,331 [+$272…+$985] · 86% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$165,170 NOT cap gain +$8,530 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$1,289 cycle +$4,342 [+$268…+$992] · 85% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$165,383 NOT cap gain +$8,317 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$1,307 cycle +$4,360 [-$349…+$746] · 62% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$157,656 NOT cap gain +$16,044 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$404 cycle +$3,457 [-$1,358…-$174] · 20% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$151,073 NOT cap gain +$22,627 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.41/sh | -$2,933 cycle +$120 [-$5,717…-$3,812] | 90% surv 90% | -$135,698 NOT cap gain +$38,002 |
| budget: banked $3,053 debit $2,933 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$120 cash · rolled 71 ct earn ≈ $1,052/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,084/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,509/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($13,018/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,101/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$149,104 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 196.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.5 mo |
| Surgical close (71 ct) | $-164,613 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,053 | $-166,672 | +$7,028 | +$2,911 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (≤1σ, normal week) | $302 | $-166,523 | +$7,177 | +$160 |
| +5% | $16.28 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,450 | $-166,374 | +$7,326 | -$2,592 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (14.7σ) | $-164,720 | $-164,426 | +$9,274 | -$43,239 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (150 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$2,229 cycle +$3,579 [+$1,120…+$3,876] · 89% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$40,597 NOT cap gain +$41,453 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$2,212 cycle +$3,562 [+$1,116…+$3,844] · 89% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$40,165 NOT cap gain +$41,885 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$2,493 cycle +$3,843 [+$354…+$4,026] · 77% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$24,913 NOT cap gain +$57,137 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.04/sh | +$641 cycle +$1,991 [-$1,928…+$1,978] · 52% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$11,796 NOT cap gain +$70,254 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,786/mo |
| vs 50% target ($13,018/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($26,036/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,786/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,487 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($157,060) | 30.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (150 ct) | $-82,500 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.5σ) | $1,350 | $-42,826 | +$39,224 | +$1,050 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.8σ) | $-5,212 | $-42,839 | +$39,211 | -$5,512 |
| +5% | $18.38 (2.1σ) | $-11,775 | $-42,852 | +$39,198 | -$12,075 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (9.3σ) | $-190,500 | $-43,210 | +$38,840 | -$66,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (101 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,670 cycle +$3,690 [+$690…+$2,267] · 90% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$54,909 NOT cap gain +$27,141 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,684 cycle +$3,704 [+$689…+$2,288] · 89% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$55,344 NOT cap gain +$26,706 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$1,791 cycle +$3,811 [+$83…+$2,275] · 76% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$39,818 NOT cap gain +$42,232 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$526 cycle +$2,546 [-$1,335…+$815] · 44% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$26,113 NOT cap gain +$55,937 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.18/sh | -$1,810 cycle +$210 [-$4,191…-$1,589] · 8% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$20,963 NOT cap gain +$61,087 |
| budget: banked $2,020 debit $1,810 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$210 cash · rolled 101 ct earn ≈ $4,883/mo while parked; 49 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,657/mo |
| vs 50% target ($13,018/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($26,036/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,867/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,637 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($157,060) | 26.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (101 ct) | $-55,398 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,020 | $-57,028 | +$25,022 | +$1,818 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (1.2σ) | $-2,146 | $-55,019 | +$27,031 | -$2,348 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.4σ) | $-6,312 | $-53,010 | +$29,040 | -$6,514 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (9.3σ) | $-137,259 | $-30,492 | +$51,558 | -$53,732 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (117 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$2,042 cycle +$5,084 [+$607…+$2,040] · 87% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$61,480 NOT cap gain +$20,570 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$2,025 cycle +$5,067 [+$609…+$2,022] · 87% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$61,049 NOT cap gain +$21,001 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$2,120 cycle +$5,162 [-$239…+$1,765] · 71% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$45,984 NOT cap gain +$36,066 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$644 cycle +$3,686 [-$1,880…+$227] · 30% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$32,490 NOT cap gain +$49,560 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.23/sh | -$2,697 cycle +$345 [-$6,100…-$3,355] · 2% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$20,861 NOT cap gain +$61,189 |
| budget: banked $3,042 debit $2,697 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$345 cash · rolled 117 ct earn ≈ $4,655/mo while parked; 33 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,037/mo |
| vs 50% target ($13,018/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($26,036/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,179/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$53,381 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($157,060) | 34.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (117 ct) | $-64,525 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,042 | $-63,523 | +$18,527 | +$2,808 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,638 | $-62,215 | +$19,835 | -$1,872 |
| +5% | $16.80 (1.1σ) | $-6,318 | $-60,907 | +$21,143 | -$6,552 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (9.3σ) | $-164,151 | $-44,152 | +$37,898 | -$67,392 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (142 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$2,556 cycle +$8,662 [+$455…+$1,948] · 85% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$64,989 NOT cap gain +$17,061 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$2,579 cycle +$8,685 [+$447…+$1,963] · 84% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$65,415 NOT cap gain +$16,635 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$2,613 cycle +$8,719 [-$834…+$1,496] · 61% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$49,962 NOT cap gain +$32,088 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$808 cycle +$6,914 [-$2,837…-$350] · 20% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$36,797 NOT cap gain +$45,253 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.41/sh | -$5,867 cycle +$239 [-$11,630…-$7,713] | 90% surv 90% | -$6,046 NOT cap gain +$76,004 |
| budget: banked $6,106 debit $5,867 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$239 cash · rolled 142 ct earn ≈ $2,103/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $26,169/mo |
| vs 50% target ($13,018/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($26,036/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $26,203/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$69,473 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($157,060) | 44.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (142 ct) | $-78,029 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $6,106 | $-67,994 | +$14,056 | +$5,822 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (≤1σ, normal week) | $604 | $-67,696 | +$14,354 | +$320 |
| +5% | $16.28 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-4,899 | $-67,397 | +$14,653 | -$5,183 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (9.3σ) | $-203,912 | $-63,238 | +$18,812 | -$86,478 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$743 cycle +$1,193 [+$421…+$1,408] · 90% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$187,455 NOT cap gain +$13,970 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$737 cycle +$1,187 [+$420…+$1,395] · 90% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$187,310 NOT cap gain +$14,115 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$831 cycle +$1,281 [+$150…+$1,480] · 81% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$182,166 NOT cap gain +$19,259 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.04/sh | +$214 cycle +$664 [-$563…+$759] · 54% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$177,733 NOT cap gain +$23,692 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,929/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,929/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$186,331 |
| … as % of IC ($94,550) | 197.1% |
| … as % of ML ($244,550) | 76.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 21.5 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-201,575 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.5σ) | $450 | $-188,198 | +$13,226 | +$350 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.8σ) | $-1,738 | $-188,177 | +$13,248 | -$1,838 |
| +5% | $18.38 (2.1σ) | $-3,925 | $-188,155 | +$13,270 | -$4,025 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.46 (17.9σ) | $-134,350 | $-186,850 | +$14,575 | -$22,150 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (34 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$562 cycle +$1,242 [+$215…+$713] · 90% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$192,273 NOT cap gain +$9,152 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$567 cycle +$1,247 [+$215…+$720] · 90% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$192,420 NOT cap gain +$9,005 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$603 cycle +$1,283 [-$1…+$699] · 75% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$187,182 NOT cap gain +$14,243 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$177 cycle +$857 [-$486…+$246] · 40% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$182,558 NOT cap gain +$18,867 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.18/sh | -$609 cycle +$71 [-$1,468…-$563] · 10% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$180,819 NOT cap gain +$20,606 |
| budget: banked $680 debit $609 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 34 ct earn ≈ $1,644/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,914/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,983/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$129,731 |
| … as % of IC ($94,550) | 137.2% |
| … as % of ML ($244,550) | 53.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 14.9 mo |
| Surgical close (34 ct) | $-137,020 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $680 | $-192,986 | +$8,438 | +$612 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (1.2σ) | $-722 | $-192,306 | +$9,119 | -$790 |
| +5% | $17.32 (1.4σ) | $-2,125 | $-191,625 | +$9,800 | -$2,193 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.46 (17.9σ) | $-94,384 | $-182,788 | +$18,637 | -$18,088 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (39 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$675 cycle +$1,689 [+$209…+$691] · 88% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$194,361 NOT cap gain +$7,064 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$681 cycle +$1,695 [+$208…+$697] · 88% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$194,507 NOT cap gain +$6,918 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$707 cycle +$1,721 [-$62…+$630] · 72% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$189,279 NOT cap gain +$12,146 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$215 cycle +$1,229 [-$629…+$102] · 32% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$184,721 NOT cap gain +$16,704 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.23/sh | -$899 cycle +$115 [-$2,028…-$1,076] · 2% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$180,785 NOT cap gain +$20,640 |
| budget: banked $1,014 debit $899 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$115 cash · rolled 39 ct earn ≈ $1,552/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,346/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,393/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$150,525 |
| … as % of IC ($94,550) | 159.2% |
| … as % of ML ($244,550) | 61.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 17.3 mo |
| Surgical close (39 ct) | $-157,287 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,014 | $-195,187 | +$6,238 | +$936 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-546 | $-194,727 | +$6,698 | -$624 |
| +5% | $16.80 (1.1σ) | $-2,106 | $-194,267 | +$7,158 | -$2,184 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.46 (17.9σ) | $-109,980 | $-187,164 | +$14,261 | -$22,464 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (48 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$864 cycle +$2,928 [+$183…+$633] · 85% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$195,665 NOT cap gain +$5,760 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$872 cycle +$2,936 [+$180…+$639] · 85% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$195,809 NOT cap gain +$5,616 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$883 cycle +$2,947 [-$251…+$494] · 62% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$190,596 NOT cap gain +$10,829 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$273 cycle +$2,337 [-$923…-$152] · 18% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$186,156 NOT cap gain +$15,269 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.41/sh | -$1,983 cycle +$81 [-$3,873…-$2,664] | 90% surv 90% | -$175,787 NOT cap gain +$25,638 |
| budget: banked $2,064 debit $1,983 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$81 cash · rolled 48 ct earn ≈ $711/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,846/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,854/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$186,845 |
| … as % of IC ($94,550) | 197.6% |
| … as % of ML ($244,550) | 76.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 21.5 mo |
| Surgical close (48 ct) | $-193,488 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,064 | $-196,680 | +$4,744 | +$1,968 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (≤1σ, normal week) | $204 | $-196,584 | +$4,841 | +$108 |
| +5% | $16.28 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,656 | $-196,487 | +$4,938 | -$1,752 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.46 (17.9σ) | $-136,944 | $-193,932 | +$7,493 | -$29,232 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.54/sh | +$1,338 cycle +$1,488 [+$1,127…+$1,716] · 100% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$2,793 NOT cap gain +$8,495 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$569 cycle +$719 [+$361…+$866] · 95% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$5,547 NOT cap gain +$5,741 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.08/sh | +$189 cycle +$339 [-$84…+$448] · 70% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$4,955 NOT cap gain +$6,333 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $643/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,223/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($4,446/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $643/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,219 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 77.2% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 26.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-11,375 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.00 (1.5σ) | $150 | $-6,116 | +$5,172 | +$125 |
| +2.5% | $15.37 (1.7σ) | $-787 | $-6,294 | +$4,994 | -$812 |
| +5% | $15.75 (1.9σ) | $-1,725 | $-6,472 | +$4,816 | -$1,750 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.8σ) | $-14,200 | $-8,842 | +$2,446 | -$12,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.45/sh | +$894 cycle +$1,254 [+$622…+$1,033] · 99% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$5,047 NOT cap gain +$6,241 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$409 cycle +$769 [+$170…+$511] · 91% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$7,516 NOT cap gain +$3,771 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$100 cycle +$460 [-$172…+$157] · 48% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$6,853 NOT cap gain +$4,434 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,543/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,223/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($4,446/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,554/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,536 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 80.6% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 28.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-9,170 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $360 | $-7,926 | +$3,362 | +$340 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (1.1σ) | $-340 | $-7,917 | +$3,371 | -$360 |
| +5% | $14.70 (1.3σ) | $-1,040 | $-7,908 | +$3,380 | -$1,060 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.8σ) | $-13,120 | $-8,127 | +$3,161 | -$11,660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (13 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.36/sh | +$473 cycle +$1,019 [+$232…+$395] · 97% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$7,300 NOT cap gain +$3,988 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$238 cycle +$784 [+$33…+$171] · 82% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$9,520 NOT cap gain +$1,768 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$34 cycle +$580 [-$199…-$50] · 16% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$8,751 NOT cap gain +$2,536 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.40/sh | -$520 cycle +$26 [-$1,018…-$695] | 91% surv 90% | -$1,206 NOT cap gain +$10,082 |
| budget: banked $546 debit $520 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $310/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,340/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,223/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($4,446/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,366/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,886 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 63.0% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 21.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (13 ct) | $-5,980 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $546 | $-9,758 | +$1,530 | +$533 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (≤1σ, normal week) | $124 | $-9,522 | +$1,766 | +$111 |
| +5% | $13.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-299 | $-9,286 | +$2,001 | -$312 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.8σ) | $-9,516 | $-5,034 | +$6,254 | -$8,567 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.36/sh | +$910 cycle +$1,960 [+$434…+$750] · 96% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$6,371 NOT cap gain +$4,917 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$457 cycle +$1,507 [+$52…+$320] · 81% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$8,808 NOT cap gain +$2,479 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$66 cycle +$1,116 [-$397…-$96] · 17% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$8,228 NOT cap gain +$3,060 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.40/sh | -$1,000 cycle +$50 [-$1,979…-$1,333] | 91% surv 90% | -$1,194 NOT cap gain +$10,094 |
| budget: banked $1,050 debit $1,000 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $596/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,223/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($4,446/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,319 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 121.1% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 42.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-11,500 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,050 | $-9,266 | +$2,022 | +$1,025 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (≤1σ, normal week) | $238 | $-9,420 | +$1,868 | +$213 |
| +5% | $13.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-575 | $-9,574 | +$1,713 | -$600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.8σ) | $-18,300 | $-12,942 | -$1,654 | -$16,475 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$178 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$4.81/sh | +$3,845 cycle +$4,517 [+$3,512…+$4,837] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$31,810 NOT cap gain +$25,662 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$203 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.73/sh | +$585 cycle +$1,257 [-$430…+$1,619] · 63% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$11,645 NOT cap gain +$45,827 |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$191 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.31/sh | +$249 cycle +$921 [-$729…+$820] · 53% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$23,382 NOT cap gain +$34,090 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,880/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,957/mo) | -68% |
| vs normal income ($17,914/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,353/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,066 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 238.6% |
| … as % of ML ($137,440) | 23.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-57,836 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $175.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $176-178.79 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $178.79 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $177.50 (1.4σ) | $672 | $-35,655 | +$21,817 | +$168 |
| +2.5% | $181.94 (1.6σ) | $-2,878 | $-35,158 | +$22,314 | -$3,382 |
| +5% | $186.38 (1.9σ) | $-6,428 | $-34,661 | +$22,811 | -$6,932 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (3.3σ) | $-26,048 | $-31,914 | +$25,558 | -$25,832 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$4.52/sh | +$3,615 cycle +$5,079 [+$3,015…+$4,098] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$38,088 NOT cap gain +$19,384 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$186 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$2.25/sh | +$1,804 cycle +$3,268 [+$598…+$2,306] · 85% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$25,595 NOT cap gain +$31,877 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$196 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.25/sh | +$198 cycle +$1,662 [-$1,180…+$577] · 40% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$18,080 NOT cap gain +$39,392 |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$183 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$22 cycle +$1,486 [-$1,098…+$162] · 31% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$29,657 NOT cap gain +$27,815 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$196 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.43/sh | -$1,146 cycle +$318 [-$2,640…-$897] · 11% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$19,424 NOT cap gain +$38,048 |
| budget: banked $1,464 debit $1,146 (78% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$318 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $6,532/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,274/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,957/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($17,914/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,747/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,274 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 277.3% |
| … as % of ML ($137,440) | 27.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-57,632 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $168.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $168-172.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $172.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $170.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,464 | $-41,703 | +$15,769 | +$960 |
| +2.5% | $174.25 (1.2σ) | $-1,936 | $-41,227 | +$16,245 | -$2,440 |
| +5% | $178.50 (1.4σ) | $-5,336 | $-40,751 | +$16,721 | -$5,840 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (3.3σ) | $-31,256 | $-37,122 | +$20,350 | -$31,040 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$165 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$4.33/sh | +$3,465 cycle +$5,769 [+$2,783…+$3,608] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$41,958 NOT cap gain +$15,514 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$181 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.93/sh | +$1,546 cycle +$3,850 [+$152…+$1,612] · 79% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$29,572 NOT cap gain +$27,900 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$173 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.83/sh | +$663 cycle +$2,967 [-$486…+$606] · 52% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$37,295 NOT cap gain +$20,177 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$183 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$0 cycle +$2,304 [-$1,458…-$33] · 24% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$28,838 NOT cap gain +$28,634 |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$196 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.50/sh | -$1,998 cycle +$306 [-$3,895…-$2,209] · 1% credit | 87% surv 84% | -$19,437 NOT cap gain +$38,035 |
| budget: banked $2,304 debit $1,998 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$306 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $4,693/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,874/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,957/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($17,914/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,347/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,434 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 300.8% |
| … as % of ML ($137,440) | 29.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-57,600 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $163.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $163-168.04 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $168.04 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $165.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,304 | $-45,423 | +$12,049 | +$1,800 |
| +2.5% | $169.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-996 | $-44,961 | +$12,511 | -$1,500 |
| +5% | $173.25 (1.1σ) | $-4,296 | $-44,499 | +$12,973 | -$4,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (3.3σ) | $-34,416 | $-40,282 | +$17,190 | -$34,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$155 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.97/sh | +$2,776 cycle +$7,151 [+$1,787…+$2,332] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$49,633 NOT cap gain +$7,839 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$163 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.55/sh | +$1,783 cycle +$6,158 [+$291…+$1,126] · 84% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$43,161 NOT cap gain +$14,311 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$163 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.52/sh | +$366 cycle +$4,741 [-$1,227…-$197] · 13% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$44,579 NOT cap gain +$12,893 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$171 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$114 cycle +$4,489 [-$1,829…-$648] · 8% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$37,990 NOT cap gain +$19,482 |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$191 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.21/sh | -$2,245 cycle +$2,130 [-$5,075…-$3,250] | 91% surv 89% | -$22,110 NOT cap gain +$35,362 |
| budget: banked $4,375 debit $2,245 (51% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,130 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $2,572/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $18,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,957/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($17,914/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $18,358/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,021 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 297.8% |
| … as % of ML ($137,440) | 29.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-50,620 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $153.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $153-161.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $161.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $155.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,375 | $-52,409 | +$5,063 | +$3,934 |
| +2.5% | $158.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,662 | $-51,588 | +$5,884 | +$1,222 |
| +5% | $162.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,050 | $-50,766 | +$6,706 | -$1,491 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (3.3σ) | $-34,755 | $-40,648 | +$16,824 | -$34,566 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.32/sh | +$32 cycle +$42 [-$20…+$94] · 66% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$1,390 NOT cap gain +$755 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.12/sh | +$12 cycle +$22 [-$43…+$72] · 56% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$1,366 NOT cap gain +$779 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.37/sh | -$37 cycle -$27 [-$88…+$16] · 30% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$1,545 NOT cap gain +$600 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $43/mo |
| vs 50% target ($208/mo) | -79% |
| vs normal income ($417/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $43/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,558 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 54.9% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 30.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-2,175 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-79.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (1.6σ) | $10 | $-1,508 | +$637 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (2.0σ) | $-187 | $-1,527 | +$618 | -$197 |
| +5% | $82.95 (2.4σ) | $-385 | $-1,546 | +$599 | -$395 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (4.8σ) | $-1,430 | $-1,648 | +$497 | -$1,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$5 cycle +$45 [-$85…-$2] · 24% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$1,703 NOT cap gain +$442 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.35/sh | -$35 cycle +$5 [-$133…-$47] · 13% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$1,654 NOT cap gain +$491 |
| budget: banked $40 debit $35 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $230/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$75 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.33/sh | -$33 cycle +$7 [-$114…-$41] · 12% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$1,872 NOT cap gain +$273 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $171/mo |
| vs 50% target ($208/mo) | -18% |
| vs normal income ($417/mo) | 41% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $171/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,928 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 67.9% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 38.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.6 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-2,202 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $74.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $74-75.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $75.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $40 | $-1,839 | +$306 | +$30 |
| +2.5% | $76.88 (1.1σ) | $-148 | $-1,857 | +$288 | -$158 |
| +5% | $78.75 (1.5σ) | $-335 | $-1,875 | +$270 | -$345 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (4.8σ) | $-1,800 | $-2,018 | +$127 | -$1,470 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.04/sh | +$4 cycle +$64 [-$94…-$19] · 18% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$1,775 NOT cap gain +$370 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.32/sh | -$32 cycle +$28 [-$120…-$53] · 9% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$1,942 NOT cap gain +$203 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.56/sh | -$56 cycle +$4 [-$166…-$82] · 5% credit | 71% surv 65% | -$1,699 NOT cap gain +$446 |
| budget: banked $60 debit $56 (93% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $197/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $257/mo |
| vs 50% target ($208/mo) | +23% |
| vs normal income ($417/mo) | 62% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $257/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,008 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 70.7% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 39.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-2,208 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $73.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-75.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $74.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $60 | $-1,909 | +$236 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $75.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-125 | $-1,927 | +$218 | -$135 |
| +5% | $77.70 (1.3σ) | $-310 | $-1,945 | +$200 | -$320 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (4.8σ) | $-1,880 | $-2,098 | +$47 | -$1,550 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$72 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.31/sh | -$31 cycle +$94 | 64% surv 52% | -$2,051 NOT cap gain +$94 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$73 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$18 cycle +$143 | 67% surv 57% | -$1,916 NOT cap gain +$229 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.20/sh | -$120 cycle +$5 | 79% surv 76% | -$1,648 NOT cap gain +$497 |
| budget: banked $125 debit $120 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $103/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $536/mo |
| vs 50% target ($208/mo) | +157% |
| vs normal income ($417/mo) | 129% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $536/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,143 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 75.5% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 42.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-2,228 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $71.28 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $71-74.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $72.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $125 | $-2,020 | +$125 | +$115 |
| +2.5% | $73.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-55 | $-2,042 | +$103 | -$65 |
| +5% | $75.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-235 | $-2,060 | +$85 | -$245 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (4.8σ) | $-2,015 | $-2,233 | -$88 | -$1,685 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$53 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.46/sh | +$455 cycle +$515 [+$460…+$1,156] · 91% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$5,986 NOT cap gain +$14,104 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$54 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.16/sh | +$165 cycle +$225 [+$137…+$779] · 77% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$4,820 NOT cap gain +$15,270 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.16/sh | +$156 cycle +$216 [+$28…+$917] · 76% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$1,520 NOT cap gain +$18,570 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $257/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,021/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($6,043/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $129/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,167 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 84.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 13.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-20,215 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $52.47 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $52-53.19 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $53.19 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $53.00 (2.0σ) | $60 | $-6,441 | +$13,649 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $54.32 (2.2σ) | $-1,265 | $-6,305 | +$13,785 | -$1,275 |
| +5% | $55.65 (2.5σ) | $-2,590 | $-6,168 | +$13,922 | -$2,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (2.5σ) | $-3,090 | $-6,117 | +$13,973 | -$2,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.60/sh | +$542 cycle +$1,037 [+$72…+$532] · 82% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$15,390 NOT cap gain +$4,700 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.59/sh | +$527 cycle +$1,022 [-$158…+$455] · 62% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$11,743 NOT cap gain +$8,347 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.12/sh | +$104 cycle +$599 [-$422…+$31] · 27% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$13,820 NOT cap gain +$6,270 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.04/sh | +$40 cycle +$535 [-$736…-$75] · 22% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$10,024 NOT cap gain +$10,066 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,121/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,021/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($6,043/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,995/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,209 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 180.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 27.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-18,374 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $495 | $-15,932 | +$4,158 | +$486 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-495 | $-15,709 | +$4,381 | -$504 |
| +5% | $46.20 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,485 | $-15,485 | +$4,605 | -$1,494 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (2.5σ) | $-10,440 | $-13,481 | +$6,609 | -$10,314 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.61/sh | +$552 cycle +$1,317 [+$22…+$417] · 77% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$16,213 NOT cap gain +$3,877 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.83/sh | +$748 cycle +$1,513 [+$10…+$556] · 76% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$13,458 NOT cap gain +$6,632 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$45 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.12/sh | +$112 cycle +$877 [-$489…-$66] · 20% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$14,645 NOT cap gain +$5,445 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$45 cycle +$810 [-$843…-$218] · 16% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$10,852 NOT cap gain +$9,238 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.66/sh | -$595 cycle +$170 [-$1,586…-$880] · 3% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$10,389 NOT cap gain +$9,701 |
| budget: banked $765 debit $595 (78% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $2,031/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,279/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,021/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($6,043/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,152/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,839 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 189.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 29.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-18,360 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-44.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $765 | $-16,765 | +$3,325 | +$756 |
| +2.5% | $44.07 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-202 | $-16,547 | +$3,543 | -$211 |
| +5% | $45.15 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,170 | $-16,329 | +$3,761 | -$1,179 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (2.5σ) | $-11,070 | $-14,111 | +$5,979 | -$10,944 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.63/sh | +$571 cycle +$2,056 | 67% surv 54% | -$18,033 NOT cap gain +$2,057 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.08/sh | +$74 cycle +$1,559 | 73% surv 64% | -$16,523 NOT cap gain +$3,567 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.02/sh | +$14 cycle +$1,499 | 78% surv 73% | -$12,722 NOT cap gain +$7,368 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.49/sh | -$1,337 cycle +$148 | 93% surv 93% | -$4,146 NOT cap gain +$15,944 |
| budget: banked $1,485 debit $1,337 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$148 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $619/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,364/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,021/mo) | +111% |
| vs normal income ($6,043/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,238/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,369 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 210.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 32.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-18,594 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-42.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,485 | $-18,604 | +$1,486 | +$1,476 |
| +2.5% | $41.51 (≤1σ, normal week) | $574 | $-18,597 | +$1,493 | +$565 |
| +5% | $42.52 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-337 | $-18,391 | +$1,699 | -$346 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (2.5σ) | $-12,600 | $-15,641 | +$4,449 | -$12,474 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (31 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$437 cycle +$747 [+$283…+$520] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$17,190 NOT cap gain +$4,885 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$95 cycle +$405 [-$102…+$134] · 50% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$15,986 NOT cap gain +$6,089 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$95 cycle +$405 [-$102…+$134] · 50% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$15,986 NOT cap gain +$6,089 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,329/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,955/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($3,911/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $824/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,531 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 48.6% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 20.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (31 ct) | $-13,702 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $310 | $-17,627 | +$4,448 | +$217 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.2σ) | $-814 | $-16,913 | +$5,162 | -$907 |
| +5% | $15.23 (1.6σ) | $-1,938 | $-16,198 | +$5,877 | -$2,031 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (3.9σ) | $-8,463 | $-12,052 | +$10,023 | -$8,556 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (46 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$648 cycle +$1,108 [+$416…+$767] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$16,873 NOT cap gain +$5,202 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$141 cycle +$601 [-$149…+$194] · 52% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$15,835 NOT cap gain +$6,240 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$141 cycle +$601 [-$149…+$194] · 52% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$15,835 NOT cap gain +$6,240 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,971/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,955/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($3,911/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,371/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,627 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 72.2% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 30.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (46 ct) | $-20,332 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $460 | $-17,522 | +$4,553 | +$322 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.2σ) | $-1,207 | $-17,351 | +$4,724 | -$1,345 |
| +5% | $15.23 (1.6σ) | $-2,875 | $-17,181 | +$4,894 | -$3,013 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (3.9σ) | $-12,558 | $-16,192 | +$5,883 | -$12,696 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (40 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.13/sh | +$526 cycle +$1,446 [+$229…+$450] · 95% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$19,053 NOT cap gain +$3,022 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$83 cycle +$1,003 [-$292…-$42] · 21% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$17,949 NOT cap gain +$4,126 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$83 cycle +$1,003 [-$292…-$42] · 21% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$17,949 NOT cap gain +$4,126 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.22/sh | -$888 cycle +$32 [-$1,627…-$1,127] | 88% surv 87% | -$13,850 NOT cap gain +$8,225 |
| budget: banked $920 debit $888 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 40 ct earn ≈ $1,079/mo while parked; 10 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,943/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,955/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($3,911/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,381/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,069 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 69.6% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 29.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (40 ct) | $-17,700 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $920 | $-19,579 | +$2,496 | +$800 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-480 | $-19,204 | +$2,871 | -$600 |
| +5% | $14.70 (1.1σ) | $-1,880 | $-18,830 | +$3,245 | -$2,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (3.9σ) | $-12,400 | $-16,016 | +$6,059 | -$12,520 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$27 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.22/sh | +$2,798 cycle +$3,798 [+$589…+$7,552] · 80% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$71,213 NOT cap gain +$58,912 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.11/sh | +$1,388 cycle +$2,388 [-$870…+$5,956] · 71% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$68,446 NOT cap gain +$61,679 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.12/sh | +$1,490 cycle +$2,490 [-$1,478…+$6,943] · 67% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$47,968 NOT cap gain +$82,157 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,286/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,884/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($37,768/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,286/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$86,282 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 312.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 31.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-132,000 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.00 (1.8σ) | $1,000 | $-74,011 | +$56,114 | +$875 |
| +2.5% | $27.67 (2.0σ) | $-7,437 | $-75,572 | +$54,553 | -$7,562 |
| +5% | $28.35 (2.2σ) | $-15,875 | $-77,132 | +$52,992 | -$16,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.9σ) | $-157,875 | $-103,402 | +$26,722 | -$130,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (101 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.38/sh | +$3,832 cycle +$6,761 [-$267…+$4,482] · 72% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$84,424 NOT cap gain +$45,701 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$1,907 cycle +$4,836 [-$1,441…+$2,435] · 55% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$100,714 NOT cap gain +$29,411 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$673 cycle +$3,602 [-$2,718…+$1,154] · 37% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$97,771 NOT cap gain +$32,354 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.00/sh | -$21 cycle +$2,908 [-$4,846…+$395] · 28% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$78,089 NOT cap gain +$52,036 |
| budget: banked $2,929 debit $21 (1% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,908 cash · rolled 101 ct earn ≈ $16,457/mo while parked; 24 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,553/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,884/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($37,768/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,604/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$97,895 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 354.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 35.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (101 ct) | $-107,110 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.76 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,929 | $-102,620 | +$27,505 | +$2,828 |
| +2.5% | $24.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,131 | $-102,568 | +$27,557 | -$3,232 |
| +5% | $25.20 (1.2σ) | $-9,191 | $-102,515 | +$27,610 | -$9,292 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.9σ) | $-155,742 | $-106,550 | +$23,576 | -$133,522 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (94 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.35/sh | +$3,325 cycle +$7,743 [-$779…+$3,513] · 64% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$88,528 NOT cap gain +$41,597 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$1,722 cycle +$6,140 [-$1,579…+$1,881] · 46% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$104,496 NOT cap gain +$25,629 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$560 cycle +$4,978 [-$2,770…+$683] · 30% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$101,481 NOT cap gain +$28,644 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.43/sh | -$4,063 cycle +$355 [-$8,389…-$4,589] · 3% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$90,823 NOT cap gain +$39,302 |
| budget: banked $4,418 debit $4,063 (92% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$355 cash · rolled 94 ct earn ≈ $23,476/mo while parked; 31 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $18,934/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,884/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($37,768/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,001/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$94,118 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 340.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 33.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (94 ct) | $-99,311 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $23-24.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $23.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,418 | $-106,218 | +$23,907 | +$4,324 |
| +2.5% | $24.09 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,104 | $-105,755 | +$24,370 | -$1,198 |
| +5% | $24.68 (1.0σ) | $-6,627 | $-105,293 | +$24,832 | -$6,721 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.9σ) | $-147,956 | $-100,304 | +$29,822 | -$127,276 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (112 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.81/sh | +$9,082 cycle +$17,930 [+$3,877…+$6,891] · 95% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$103,829 NOT cap gain +$26,296 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.28/sh | +$3,131 cycle +$11,979 [-$3,491…+$261] · 30% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$99,592 NOT cap gain +$30,533 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,868 cycle +$10,716 [-$3,405…-$408] · 21% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$115,219 NOT cap gain +$14,906 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.04/sh | +$439 cycle +$9,287 [-$4,879…-$1,856] · 11% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$112,472 NOT cap gain +$17,653 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.69/sh | -$7,749 cycle +$1,099 [-$17,749…-$11,477] | 85% surv 83% | -$69,722 NOT cap gain +$60,403 |
| budget: banked $8,848 debit $7,749 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,099 cash · rolled 112 ct earn ≈ $6,350/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $37,920/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,884/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($37,768/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $37,948/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$125,357 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 453.8% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 45.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (112 ct) | $-119,728 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $21.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $22-23.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $23.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $22.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $8,848 | $-117,087 | +$13,038 | +$8,736 |
| +2.5% | $22.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,688 | $-117,644 | +$12,481 | +$2,576 |
| +5% | $23.10 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,472 | $-118,201 | +$11,924 | -$3,584 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.9σ) | $-189,504 | $-137,892 | -$7,766 | -$164,864 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,598 cycle +$6,198 [+$3,850…+$6,628] · 99% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$76,778 NOT cap gain +$36,022 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$987 cycle +$2,587 [-$945…+$2,852] · 63% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$50,564 NOT cap gain +$62,236 |
| SS $23 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$909 cycle +$2,509 [-$1,154…+$2,177] · 61% credit | 69% surv 62% | -$72,572 NOT cap gain +$40,228 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,857/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,857/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$101,309 |
| … as % of IC ($7,600) | 1333.0% |
| … as % of ML ($207,600) | 48.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-112,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.4σ) | $1,600 | $-81,375 | +$31,425 | +$1,400 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.6σ) | $-4,900 | $-83,124 | +$29,676 | -$5,100 |
| +5% | $13.65 (1.9σ) | $-11,400 | $-84,872 | +$27,928 | -$11,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $22.69 (8.1σ) | $-192,200 | $-133,507 | -$20,707 | -$178,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (117 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$3,393 cycle +$5,616 [+$2,263…+$3,714] · 99% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$76,692 NOT cap gain +$36,108 |
| SS $23 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$2,383 cycle +$4,606 [+$1,518…+$2,666] · 98% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$92,906 NOT cap gain +$19,894 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$327 cycle +$2,550 [-$1,166…+$304] · 34% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$87,067 NOT cap gain +$25,733 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.17/sh | -$1,963 cycle +$260 [-$4,095…-$2,026] · 4% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$52,808 NOT cap gain +$59,992 |
| budget: banked $2,223 debit $1,963 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$260 cash · rolled 117 ct earn ≈ $4,323/mo while parked; 83 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,527/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,705/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$69,679 |
| … as % of IC ($7,600) | 916.8% |
| … as % of ML ($207,600) | 33.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (117 ct) | $-66,105 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,223 | $-95,289 | +$17,511 | +$2,106 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,287 | $-94,413 | +$18,387 | -$1,404 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.1σ) | $-4,797 | $-93,537 | +$19,263 | -$4,914 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $22.69 (8.1σ) | $-122,850 | $-69,801 | +$42,999 | -$114,894 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (177 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$5,133 cycle +$8,496 [+$3,460…+$5,756] · 99% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$73,872 NOT cap gain +$38,928 |
| SS $23 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$3,605 cycle +$6,968 [+$2,321…+$4,166] · 98% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$90,604 NOT cap gain +$22,196 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$495 cycle +$3,858 [-$1,655…+$546] · 35% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$85,820 NOT cap gain +$26,980 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.17/sh | -$2,970 cycle +$393 [-$6,091…-$2,964] · 4% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$52,734 NOT cap gain +$60,066 |
| budget: banked $3,363 debit $2,970 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$393 cash · rolled 177 ct earn ≈ $6,540/mo while parked; 23 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,413/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,462/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$105,412 |
| … as % of IC ($7,600) | 1387.0% |
| … as % of ML ($207,600) | 50.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (177 ct) | $-100,005 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,363 | $-94,209 | +$18,591 | +$3,186 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,947 | $-95,133 | +$17,667 | -$2,124 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.1σ) | $-7,257 | $-96,057 | +$16,743 | -$7,434 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $22.69 (8.1σ) | $-185,850 | $-128,721 | -$15,921 | -$173,814 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (137 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$11 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$2,450 cycle +$9,163 [+$820…+$1,618] · 92% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$102,989 NOT cap gain +$9,811 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.21/sh | +$2,943 cycle +$9,656 [+$693…+$1,837] · 88% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$87,291 NOT cap gain +$25,509 |
| SS $23 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$156 cycle +$6,869 [-$2,595…-$900] · 6% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$97,389 NOT cap gain +$15,411 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$4,603 cycle +$2,110 [-$9,627…-$6,473] | 95% surv 95% | -$43,667 NOT cap gain +$69,133 |
| budget: banked $6,713 debit $4,603 (69% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,110 cash · rolled 137 ct earn ≈ $1,573/mo while parked; 63 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $28,770/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $28,905/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$91,180 |
| … as % of IC ($7,600) | 1199.7% |
| … as % of ML ($207,600) | 43.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (137 ct) | $-77,679 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $6,713 | $-105,439 | +$7,361 | +$6,576 |
| +2.5% | $11.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,946 | $-105,186 | +$7,614 | +$2,809 |
| +5% | $11.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-822 | $-104,933 | +$7,867 | -$959 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $22.69 (8.1σ) | $-153,440 | $-99,031 | +$13,769 | -$144,124 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$1,149 cycle +$1,549 [+$948…+$1,722] · 99% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$22,347 NOT cap gain +$8,853 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$247 cycle +$647 [-$191…+$795] · 67% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$15,947 NOT cap gain +$15,253 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$227 cycle +$627 [-$203…+$580] · 61% credit | 69% surv 62% | -$21,336 NOT cap gain +$9,864 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,714/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,589/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($7,179/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,714/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,808 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 137.7% |
| … as % of ML ($56,650) | 52.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.2 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-31,225 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.4σ) | $400 | $-23,497 | +$7,703 | +$350 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.6σ) | $-1,225 | $-23,958 | +$7,242 | -$1,275 |
| +5% | $13.65 (1.9σ) | $-2,850 | $-24,420 | +$6,780 | -$2,900 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (9.3σ) | $-56,250 | $-39,585 | -$8,385 | -$44,650 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (30 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$870 cycle +$1,440 [+$574…+$977] · 98% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$22,294 NOT cap gain +$8,906 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$611 cycle +$1,181 [+$384…+$708] · 97% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$26,276 NOT cap gain +$4,924 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$84 cycle +$654 [-$312…+$96] · 35% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$24,870 NOT cap gain +$6,330 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.17/sh | -$503 cycle +$67 [-$1,068…-$492] · 5% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$16,507 NOT cap gain +$14,693 |
| budget: banked $570 debit $503 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 30 ct earn ≈ $1,108/mo while parked; 20 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,443/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,589/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($7,179/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,486/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,555 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 94.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,650) | 36.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (30 ct) | $-18,750 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $570 | $-26,887 | +$4,313 | +$540 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-330 | $-26,713 | +$4,487 | -$360 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.1σ) | $-1,230 | $-26,539 | +$4,661 | -$1,260 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (9.3σ) | $-36,420 | $-24,395 | +$6,805 | -$29,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (45 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$1,305 cycle +$2,160 [+$861…+$1,403] · 99% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$21,589 NOT cap gain +$9,611 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$916 cycle +$1,771 [+$576…+$1,010] · 98% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$25,700 NOT cap gain +$5,500 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$126 cycle +$981 [-$475…+$120] · 31% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$24,558 NOT cap gain +$6,642 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.17/sh | -$755 cycle +$100 [-$1,602…-$772] · 4% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$16,489 NOT cap gain +$14,711 |
| budget: banked $855 debit $755 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$100 cash · rolled 45 ct earn ≈ $1,663/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,664/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,589/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($7,179/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,675/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,832 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 142.4% |
| … as % of ML ($56,650) | 54.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (45 ct) | $-28,125 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $855 | $-26,617 | +$4,583 | +$810 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-495 | $-26,893 | +$4,307 | -$540 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.1σ) | $-1,845 | $-27,169 | +$4,031 | -$1,890 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (9.3σ) | $-54,630 | $-39,125 | -$7,925 | -$44,190 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (35 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$11 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$626 cycle +$2,341 [+$202…+$414] · 92% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$28,701 NOT cap gain +$2,499 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.21/sh | +$752 cycle +$2,467 [+$169…+$471] · 87% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$24,852 NOT cap gain +$6,348 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$40 cycle +$1,755 [-$677…-$230] · 7% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$27,354 NOT cap gain +$3,846 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$1,176 cycle +$539 [-$2,482…-$1,651] | 95% surv 95% | -$14,249 NOT cap gain +$16,951 |
| budget: banked $1,715 debit $1,176 (69% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$539 cash · rolled 35 ct earn ≈ $402/mo while parked; 15 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,350/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,589/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($7,179/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,382/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,431 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 122.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,650) | 46.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (35 ct) | $-21,945 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,715 | $-29,327 | +$1,873 | +$1,680 |
| +2.5% | $11.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $753 | $-29,305 | +$1,895 | +$718 |
| +5% | $11.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-210 | $-29,283 | +$1,917 | -$245 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (9.3σ) | $-44,940 | $-31,755 | -$555 | -$36,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$5,747 cycle +$7,747 [+$5,009…+$8,877] · 99% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$8,460 NOT cap gain +$27,790 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$1,233 cycle +$3,233 [-$636…+$4,558] · 68% credit | 79% surv 75% | +$7,069 SAFE cap gain +$43,319 |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$1,136 cycle +$3,136 [-$728…+$3,400] · 65% credit | 69% surv 62% | -$7,766 NOT cap gain +$28,484 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,571/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,946/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($35,893/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,571/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,101 |
| … as % of IC ($35,000) | 88.9% |
| … as % of ML ($85,000) | 36.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (250 ct) | $-36,375 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.4σ) | $2,000 | $-14,207 | +$22,043 | +$1,750 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.6σ) | $-6,125 | $-19,139 | +$17,111 | -$6,375 |
| +5% | $13.65 (1.9σ) | $-14,250 | $-24,071 | +$12,179 | -$14,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $26.40 (10.7σ) | $-333,000 | $-217,552 | -$181,302 | -$223,250 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (146 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$4,234 cycle +$7,008 [+$2,790…+$4,570] · 99% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$8,702 NOT cap gain +$27,548 |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$2,973 cycle +$5,747 [+$1,868…+$3,295] · 98% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$20,181 NOT cap gain +$16,069 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$408 cycle +$3,182 [-$1,524…+$301] · 33% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$17,441 NOT cap gain +$18,809 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.17/sh | -$2,450 cycle +$324 [-$5,181…-$2,643] · 4% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$4,264 SAFE cap gain +$40,514 |
| budget: banked $2,774 debit $2,450 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$324 cash · rolled 146 ct earn ≈ $5,394/mo while parked; 104 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,889/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,946/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($35,893/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,111/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,157 |
| … as % of IC ($35,000) | 89.0% |
| … as % of ML ($85,000) | 36.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (146 ct) | $-21,316 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,774 | $-23,154 | +$13,096 | +$2,628 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,606 | $-24,587 | +$11,664 | -$1,752 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.1σ) | $-5,986 | $-26,019 | +$10,231 | -$6,132 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $26.40 (10.7σ) | $-207,466 | $-137,674 | -$101,424 | -$143,372 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (221 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$6,409 cycle +$10,608 [+$4,102…+$7,125] · 98% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$5,177 NOT cap gain +$31,073 |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$4,501 cycle +$8,700 [+$2,746…+$5,155] · 98% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$17,303 NOT cap gain +$18,947 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$618 cycle +$4,817 [-$2,525…+$613] · 32% credit | 70% surv 63% | -$15,881 NOT cap gain +$20,369 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.17/sh | -$3,708 cycle +$491 [-$8,220…-$3,754] · 5% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$4,356 SAFE cap gain +$40,606 |
| budget: banked $4,199 debit $3,708 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$491 cash · rolled 221 ct earn ≈ $8,166/mo while parked; 29 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $17,996/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,946/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($35,893/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $18,058/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,163 |
| … as % of IC ($35,000) | 134.8% |
| … as % of ML ($85,000) | 55.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (221 ct) | $-32,266 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,199 | $-21,804 | +$14,446 | +$3,978 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,431 | $-25,487 | +$10,764 | -$2,652 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.1σ) | $-9,061 | $-29,169 | +$7,081 | -$9,282 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $26.40 (10.7σ) | $-314,041 | $-211,324 | -$175,074 | -$217,022 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (171 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$11 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$3,058 cycle +$11,437 [+$972…+$2,024] · 91% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$24,341 NOT cap gain +$11,909 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.21/sh | +$3,673 cycle +$12,052 [+$807…+$2,295] · 87% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$13,508 NOT cap gain +$22,742 |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$194 cycle +$8,573 [-$3,319…-$1,127] · 7% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$21,899 NOT cap gain +$14,351 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$5,745 cycle +$2,634 [-$12,143…-$8,085] | 95% surv 95% | +$11,462 SAFE cap gain +$47,712 |
| budget: banked $8,379 debit $5,745 (69% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,634 cash · rolled 171 ct earn ≈ $1,963/mo while parked; 79 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $35,910/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,946/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($35,893/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $36,079/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,462 |
| … as % of IC ($35,000) | 138.5% |
| … as % of ML ($85,000) | 57.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (171 ct) | $-25,308 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $8,379 | $-27,399 | +$8,851 | +$8,208 |
| +2.5% | $11.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,677 | $-29,400 | +$6,850 | +$3,506 |
| +5% | $11.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,026 | $-31,400 | +$4,850 | -$1,197 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $26.40 (10.7σ) | $-254,961 | $-174,194 | -$137,944 | -$179,892 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,598 cycle +$6,198 [+$3,850…+$6,628] · 99% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$4,584 SAFE cap gain +$9,584 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$987 cycle +$2,587 [-$945…+$2,852] · 63% credit | 79% surv 75% | +$4,359 SAFE cap gain +$9,359 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$909 cycle +$2,509 [-$1,154…+$2,177] · 61% credit | 69% surv 62% | +$1,791 SAFE cap gain +$6,791 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,857/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,857/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,140 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 92.2% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 92.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-5,100 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.4σ) | $1,600 | $-14 | +$4,986 | +$1,400 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.6σ) | $-4,900 | $-5,974 | -$974 | -$5,100 |
| +5% | $13.65 (1.9σ) | $-11,400 | $-11,935 | -$6,935 | -$11,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (20.5σ) | $-549,400 | $-505,281 | -$500,281 | -$178,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (117 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$3,393 cycle +$5,616 [+$2,263…+$3,714] · 99% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$4,152 SAFE cap gain +$9,152 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$2,383 cycle +$4,606 [+$1,518…+$2,666] · 98% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$1,415 SAFE cap gain +$6,415 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$327 cycle +$2,550 [-$1,166…+$304] · 34% credit | 70% surv 63% | +$256 SAFE cap gain +$5,256 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.17/sh | -$1,963 cycle +$260 [-$4,095…-$2,026] · 4% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$2,116 SAFE cap gain +$7,116 |
| budget: banked $2,223 debit $1,963 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$260 cash · rolled 117 ct earn ≈ $4,323/mo while parked; 83 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,527/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,705/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,345 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 148.6% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 148.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (117 ct) | $-3,042 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,223 | $-968 | +$4,032 | +$2,106 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,287 | $-3,980 | +$1,020 | -$1,404 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.1σ) | $-4,797 | $-6,992 | -$1,992 | -$4,914 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (20.5σ) | $-331,812 | $-441,575 | -$436,575 | -$114,894 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (177 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$5,133 cycle +$8,496 [+$3,460…+$5,756] · 99% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$6,971 SAFE cap gain +$11,971 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$3,605 cycle +$6,968 [+$2,321…+$4,166] · 98% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$3,717 SAFE cap gain +$8,717 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.03/sh | +$495 cycle +$3,858 [-$1,655…+$546] · 35% credit | 70% surv 63% | +$1,503 SAFE cap gain +$6,503 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.17/sh | -$2,970 cycle +$393 [-$6,091…-$2,964] · 4% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$2,189 SAFE cap gain +$7,189 |
| budget: banked $3,363 debit $2,970 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$393 cash · rolled 177 ct earn ≈ $6,540/mo while parked; 23 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,413/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,462/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,727 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 224.8% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 224.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (177 ct) | $-4,602 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,363 | $112 | +$5,112 | +$3,186 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,947 | $-4,700 | +$300 | -$2,124 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.1σ) | $-7,257 | $-9,512 | -$4,512 | -$7,434 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (20.5σ) | $-501,972 | $-500,495 | -$495,495 | -$173,814 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (137 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$11 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$2,450 cycle +$9,163 [+$820…+$1,618] · 92% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$4,293 SAFE cap gain +$9,293 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.21/sh | +$2,943 cycle +$9,656 [+$693…+$1,837] · 88% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$6,512 SAFE cap gain +$11,512 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$156 cycle +$6,869 [-$2,595…-$900] · 6% credit | 71% surv 64% | +$2,895 SAFE cap gain +$7,895 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$4,603 cycle +$2,110 [-$9,627…-$6,473] | 95% surv 95% | +$4,776 SAFE cap gain +$9,776 |
| budget: banked $6,713 debit $4,603 (69% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,110 cash · rolled 137 ct earn ≈ $1,573/mo while parked; 63 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $28,770/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $28,905/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,729 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 261.2% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 261.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (137 ct) | $-3,836 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $6,713 | $1,842 | +$6,842 | +$6,576 |
| +2.5% | $11.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,946 | $-1,469 | +$3,531 | +$2,809 |
| +5% | $11.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-822 | $-4,780 | +$220 | -$959 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (20.5σ) | $-398,122 | $-470,805 | -$465,805 | -$144,124 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,051 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$8.47/sh | +$4,233 cycle +$7,533 [-$149…+$7,740] · 74% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$5,651 SAFE cap gain +$124,576 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$990 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.26/sh | +$128 cycle +$3,428 [-$2,204…+$3,095] · 54% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$30,726 NOT cap gain +$88,199 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,116 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.14/sh | +$69 cycle +$3,369 [-$5,415…+$3,508] · 44% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$35,612 SAFE cap gain +$154,537 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,136 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$4.07/sh | -$2,035 cycle +$1,265 [-$7,900…+$1,369] · 32% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$44,008 SAFE cap gain +$162,933 |
| budget: banked $3,300 debit $2,035 (62% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,265 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $25,088/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,143/mo |
| vs 50% target ($35,357/mo) | -60% |
| vs normal income ($70,714/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,381/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,088 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 41.8% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 7.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-119,238 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $980.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $980-997.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $997.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $990.00 (1.3σ) | $3,300 | $-30,853 | +$88,072 | +$1,820 |
| +2.5% | $1,014.75 (1.6σ) | $-9,075 | $-30,234 | +$88,691 | -$10,555 |
| +5% | $1,039.50 (1.8σ) | $-21,450 | $-29,616 | +$89,309 | -$18,180 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,011 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$8.77/sh | +$4,387 cycle +$9,887 [-$1,205…+$5,425] · 66% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$12,995 NOT cap gain +$105,930 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$950 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$1.13/sh | +$567 cycle +$6,067 [-$2,474…+$1,872] · 42% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$49,086 NOT cap gain +$69,839 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$951 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.33/sh | +$164 cycle +$5,664 [-$3,007…+$1,342] · 37% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$48,718 NOT cap gain +$70,207 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,076 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.51/sh | +$257 cycle +$5,757 [-$6,704…+$1,112] · 32% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$17,000 SAFE cap gain +$135,925 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,121 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$9.10/sh | -$4,548 cycle +$952 [-$12,478…-$4,002] · 13% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$35,820 SAFE cap gain +$154,745 |
| budget: banked $5,500 debit $4,548 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$952 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $20,830/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $23,571/mo |
| vs 50% target ($35,357/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($70,714/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $22,810/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,888 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 65.8% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 11.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-119,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $940.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $940-961.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $961.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $950.00 (1.0σ) | $5,500 | $-49,653 | +$69,272 | +$4,020 |
| +2.5% | $973.75 (1.2σ) | $-6,375 | $-49,059 | +$69,866 | -$7,855 |
| +5% | $997.50 (1.4σ) | $-18,250 | $-48,466 | +$70,459 | -$19,730 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (1.7σ) | $-33,800 | $-47,688 | +$71,237 | -$35,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$976 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$8.95/sh | +$4,474 cycle +$13,224 [-$1,747…+$4,460] · 62% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$28,032 NOT cap gain +$90,893 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$915 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$1.84/sh | +$921 cycle +$9,671 [-$2,494…+$1,300] · 38% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$63,857 NOT cap gain +$55,068 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$916 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$1.04/sh | +$520 cycle +$9,270 [-$2,993…+$862] · 32% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$63,487 NOT cap gain +$55,438 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,041 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.74/sh | +$372 cycle +$9,122 [-$7,490…-$120] · 25% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$1,990 SAFE cap gain +$120,915 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,136 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$17.34/sh | -$8,668 cycle +$82 [-$18,673…-$9,910] · 2% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$42,825 SAFE cap gain +$161,750 |
| budget: banked $8,750 debit $8,668 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $14,703/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $37,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($35,357/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($70,714/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $36,738/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$63,138 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 85.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 15.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-119,525 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $905.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $906-933.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $933.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $915.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $8,750 | $-64,778 | +$54,147 | +$7,270 |
| +2.5% | $937.87 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,687 | $-64,206 | +$54,719 | -$4,167 |
| +5% | $960.75 (1.1σ) | $-14,125 | $-63,634 | +$55,291 | -$15,605 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (1.7σ) | $-48,050 | $-61,938 | +$56,987 | -$49,530 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$911 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$22.43/sh | +$11,214 cycle +$28,439 [+$2,928…+$8,119] · 87% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$46,942 NOT cap gain +$71,983 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$855 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$2.92/sh | +$1,462 cycle +$18,687 [-$3,102…-$253] · 21% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$86,342 NOT cap gain +$32,583 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$861 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.29/sh | +$147 cycle +$17,372 [-$4,731…-$1,705] · 12% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$84,259 NOT cap gain +$34,666 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$981 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.92/sh | +$462 cycle +$17,687 [-$9,777…-$3,286] · 11% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$20,945 NOT cap gain +$97,980 |
| SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,131 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$24.13/sh | -$12,066 cycle +$5,159 [-$26,379…-$17,101] | 90% surv 89% | +$45,277 SAFE cap gain +$164,202 |
| budget: banked $17,225 debit $12,066 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,159 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,781/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $73,821/mo |
| vs 50% target ($35,357/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($70,714/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $73,060/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$84,663 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 113.9% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 20.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-120,438 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $846.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $846-892.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $892.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $855.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $17,225 | $-87,803 | +$31,122 | +$15,745 |
| +2.5% | $876.37 (≤1σ, normal week) | $6,538 | $-87,269 | +$31,656 | +$5,058 |
| +5% | $897.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-4,150 | $-86,734 | +$32,191 | -$5,630 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (1.7σ) | $-69,575 | $-83,463 | +$35,462 | -$71,055 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,051 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$8.47/sh | +$1,693 cycle +$3,013 [-$4…+$3,087] · 75% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$37,289 NOT cap gain +$49,251 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$990 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.26/sh | +$51 cycle +$1,371 [-$824…+$1,228] · 52% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$51,680 NOT cap gain +$34,860 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,116 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.14/sh | +$28 cycle +$1,348 [-$2,244…+$1,418] · 42% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$25,474 NOT cap gain +$61,066 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,136 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$4.07/sh | -$814 cycle +$506 [-$3,271…+$558] · 31% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$22,167 NOT cap gain +$64,373 |
| budget: banked $1,320 debit $814 (62% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$506 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,035/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,657/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,143/mo) | -60% |
| vs normal income ($28,286/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,130/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,665 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 101.3% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 25.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-86,665 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $980.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $980-997.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $997.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $990.00 (1.3σ) | $1,320 | $-51,731 | +$34,809 | +$1,318 |
| +2.5% | $1,014.75 (1.6σ) | $-3,630 | $-51,548 | +$34,992 | -$3,632 |
| +5% | $1,039.50 (1.8σ) | $-8,580 | $-51,365 | +$35,175 | -$8,582 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.3σ) | $-44,680 | $-50,029 | +$36,511 | -$44,682 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,011 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$8.77/sh | +$1,755 cycle +$3,955 [-$420…+$2,369] · 68% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$44,644 NOT cap gain +$41,896 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$950 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$1.13/sh | +$227 cycle +$2,427 [-$929…+$923] · 45% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$58,920 NOT cap gain +$27,620 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$951 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.33/sh | +$66 cycle +$2,266 [-$1,118…+$714] · 41% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$58,777 NOT cap gain +$27,763 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,076 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.51/sh | +$103 cycle +$2,303 [-$2,644…+$589] · 34% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$32,814 NOT cap gain +$53,726 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,121 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$9.10/sh | -$1,819 cycle +$381 [-$4,980…-$1,439] · 13% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$25,404 NOT cap gain +$61,136 |
| budget: banked $2,200 debit $1,819 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$381 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,332/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,429/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,143/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($28,286/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,901/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$57,785 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 115.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 29.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-86,690 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $940.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $940-961.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $961.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $950.00 (1.0σ) | $2,200 | $-59,147 | +$27,393 | +$2,198 |
| +2.5% | $973.75 (1.2σ) | $-2,550 | $-58,971 | +$27,569 | -$2,552 |
| +5% | $997.50 (1.4σ) | $-7,300 | $-58,796 | +$27,744 | -$7,302 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.3σ) | $-51,800 | $-57,149 | +$29,391 | -$51,802 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$976 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$8.95/sh | +$1,790 cycle +$5,290 [-$757…+$1,883] · 60% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$50,568 NOT cap gain +$35,972 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$915 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$1.84/sh | +$369 cycle +$3,869 [-$1,024…+$579] · 38% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$64,738 NOT cap gain +$21,802 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$916 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$1.04/sh | +$208 cycle +$3,708 [-$1,222…+$399] · 34% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$64,593 NOT cap gain +$21,947 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,041 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.74/sh | +$149 cycle +$3,649 [-$3,061…+$69] · 26% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$38,728 NOT cap gain +$47,812 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,136 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$17.34/sh | -$3,467 cycle +$33 [-$7,510…-$3,787] · 2% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$22,640 NOT cap gain +$63,900 |
| budget: banked $3,500 debit $3,467 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,881/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,143/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($28,286/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,473/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$63,485 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 127.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 32.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-86,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $905.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $906-933.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $933.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $915.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,500 | $-65,106 | +$21,434 | +$3,498 |
| +2.5% | $937.87 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,075 | $-64,937 | +$21,603 | -$1,077 |
| +5% | $960.75 (1.1σ) | $-5,650 | $-64,768 | +$21,772 | -$5,652 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.3σ) | $-57,500 | $-62,849 | +$23,691 | -$57,502 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$911 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$22.43/sh | +$4,486 cycle +$11,376 [+$1,131…+$3,239] · 88% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$57,963 NOT cap gain +$28,577 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$855 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$2.92/sh | +$585 cycle +$7,475 [-$1,256…-$114] · 21% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$73,575 NOT cap gain +$12,965 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$861 | 27 Jul 2026 | 6d left | +$0.29/sh | +$59 cycle +$6,949 [-$1,912…-$681] · 13% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$72,759 NOT cap gain +$13,781 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$981 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.92/sh | +$185 cycle +$7,075 [-$3,953…-$1,344] · 11% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$47,746 NOT cap gain +$38,794 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,131 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$24.13/sh | -$4,826 cycle +$2,064 [-$10,628…-$6,900] | 90% surv 89% | -$21,647 NOT cap gain +$64,893 |
| budget: banked $6,890 debit $4,826 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,064 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,512/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $29,529/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,143/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($28,286/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $29,001/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$72,095 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 144.2% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 36.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-87,145 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $846.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $846-892.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $892.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $855.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $6,890 | $-74,160 | +$12,380 | +$6,888 |
| +2.5% | $876.37 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,615 | $-74,002 | +$12,538 | +$2,613 |
| +5% | $897.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,660 | $-73,844 | +$12,696 | -$1,662 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.3σ) | $-66,110 | $-71,459 | +$15,081 | -$66,112 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$101 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$18 cycle +$218 [-$318…+$481] · 55% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$8,748 NOT cap gain +$6,242 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$100 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.89/sh | -$445 cycle -$245 [-$813…-$41] · 24% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$9,713 NOT cap gain +$5,277 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $857/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,548/mo) | -45% |
| vs normal income ($3,096/mo) | 28% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $381/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,449 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 62.5% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 29.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,065 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $99-100.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $100.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $100.00 (1.7σ) | $200 | $-9,268 | +$5,722 | +$195 |
| +2.5% | $102.50 (2.1σ) | $-1,050 | $-9,263 | +$5,727 | -$1,055 |
| +5% | $105.00 (2.5σ) | $-2,300 | $-9,258 | +$5,732 | -$2,305 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.9σ) | $-7,070 | $-9,239 | +$5,751 | -$7,075 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$278 [-$517…+$259] · 36% credit | 62% surv 49% | -$11,700 NOT cap gain +$3,290 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.01/sh | -$7 cycle +$268 [-$499…+$238] · 36% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$10,706 NOT cap gain +$4,284 |
| budget: banked $275 debit $7 (2% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$268 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,104/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$96 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.84/sh | -$419 cycle -$144 [-$928…-$216] · 16% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$11,620 NOT cap gain +$3,370 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,179/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,548/mo) | -24% |
| vs normal income ($3,096/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $702/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,374 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 76.7% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 36.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,227 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $95.04 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $95-97.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $97.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $96.00 (1.1σ) | $275 | $-11,201 | +$3,789 | +$270 |
| +2.5% | $98.40 (1.4σ) | $-925 | $-11,196 | +$3,794 | -$930 |
| +5% | $100.80 (1.8σ) | $-2,125 | $-11,191 | +$3,799 | -$2,130 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.9σ) | $-8,995 | $-11,164 | +$3,826 | -$9,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$94 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$4 cycle +$379 [-$622…+$36] · 27% credit | 61% surv 49% | -$12,101 NOT cap gain +$2,889 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.72/sh | -$361 cycle +$14 [-$1,043…-$365] · 11% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$10,960 NOT cap gain +$4,030 |
| budget: banked $375 debit $361 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,454/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$95 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.82/sh | -$412 cycle -$37 [-$1,029…-$412] · 10% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$12,015 NOT cap gain +$2,975 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,607/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,548/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($3,096/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,131/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,774 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 79.7% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 37.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,225 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $94.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $94-96.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $95.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $375 | $-11,603 | +$3,387 | +$370 |
| +2.5% | $97.37 (1.3σ) | $-812 | $-11,598 | +$3,392 | -$817 |
| +5% | $99.75 (1.6σ) | $-2,000 | $-11,593 | +$3,396 | -$2,005 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.9σ) | $-9,395 | $-11,564 | +$3,426 | -$9,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$92 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$807 [-$699…-$116] · 20% credit | 61% surv 49% | -$12,677 NOT cap gain +$2,313 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$93 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$0.80/sh | -$400 cycle +$400 [-$1,080…-$531] · 7% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$12,582 NOT cap gain +$2,408 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.80/sh | -$401 cycle +$399 [-$1,113…-$541] · 7% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$10,575 NOT cap gain +$4,415 |
| budget: banked $800 debit $401 (50% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$399 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,269/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,429/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,548/mo) | +121% |
| vs normal income ($3,096/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,952/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,349 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 83.9% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 39.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,140 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $92.07 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $92-94.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $93.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $800 | $-12,182 | +$2,808 | +$795 |
| +2.5% | $95.32 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-362 | $-12,177 | +$2,813 | -$367 |
| +5% | $97.65 (1.3σ) | $-1,525 | $-12,173 | +$2,817 | -$1,530 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.9σ) | $-9,970 | $-12,139 | +$2,851 | -$9,975 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$188 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.61/sh | +$1,806 cycle +$2,226 [+$1,543…+$2,228] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$19,517 NOT cap gain +$13,305 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$201 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.36/sh | +$681 cycle +$1,101 [+$61…+$1,133] · 78% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$13,477 NOT cap gain +$19,345 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$196 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.37/sh | +$183 cycle +$603 [-$354…+$440] · 49% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$16,586 NOT cap gain +$16,237 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$206 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.02/sh | +$8 cycle +$428 [-$718…+$426] · 39% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$11,541 NOT cap gain +$21,282 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,955/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($9,911/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,607/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,609 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 121.2% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 26.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-32,868 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $185.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $186-188.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $188.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $187.50 (1.2σ) | $420 | $-21,323 | +$11,499 | +$200 |
| +2.5% | $192.19 (1.5σ) | $-1,924 | $-21,220 | +$11,603 | -$2,144 |
| +5% | $196.88 (1.8σ) | $-4,268 | $-21,117 | +$11,706 | -$4,488 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (3.4σ) | $-17,830 | $-20,520 | +$12,302 | -$18,050 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$180 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.67/sh | +$1,836 cycle +$2,711 [+$1,463…+$1,997] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$22,947 NOT cap gain +$9,876 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$194 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.45/sh | +$723 cycle +$1,598 [-$75…+$842] · 72% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$16,896 NOT cap gain +$15,927 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$189 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.44/sh | +$220 cycle +$1,095 [-$415…+$248] · 42% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$20,009 NOT cap gain +$12,814 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$199 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.11/sh | +$56 cycle +$931 [-$860…+$140] · 32% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$14,952 NOT cap gain +$17,870 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$204 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.47/sh | -$734 cycle +$141 [-$1,813…-$678] · 7% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$13,133 NOT cap gain +$19,690 |
| budget: banked $875 debit $734 (84% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$141 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,318/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,955/mo) | -24% |
| vs normal income ($9,911/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,557/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,904 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 140.6% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 31.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-32,912 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $178.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $178-181.93 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $181.93 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $180.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $875 | $-24,783 | +$8,039 | +$655 |
| +2.5% | $184.50 (1.1σ) | $-1,375 | $-24,684 | +$8,138 | -$1,595 |
| +5% | $189.00 (1.3σ) | $-3,625 | $-24,585 | +$8,237 | -$3,845 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (3.4σ) | $-21,125 | $-23,815 | +$9,007 | -$21,345 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$175 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.70/sh | +$1,852 cycle +$3,267 [+$1,412…+$1,813] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$25,001 NOT cap gain +$7,821 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$189 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.49/sh | +$744 cycle +$2,159 [-$197…+$588] · 64% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$18,944 NOT cap gain +$13,878 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$184 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.48/sh | +$240 cycle +$1,655 [-$497…+$71] · 31% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$22,059 NOT cap gain +$10,764 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$194 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$83 cycle +$1,498 [-$987…-$121] · 20% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$16,996 NOT cap gain +$15,827 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$214 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$2.75/sh | -$1,377 cycle +$38 [-$2,772…-$1,701] | 90% surv 89% | -$8,015 NOT cap gain +$24,807 |
| budget: banked $1,415 debit $1,377 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$38 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,425/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,064/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,955/mo) | +22% |
| vs normal income ($9,911/mo) | 61% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,871/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,864 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 152.1% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 33.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-32,978 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $173.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $173-178.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $178.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $175.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,415 | $-26,853 | +$5,969 | +$1,195 |
| +2.5% | $179.37 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-772 | $-26,757 | +$6,066 | -$992 |
| +5% | $183.75 (1.0σ) | $-2,960 | $-26,661 | +$6,162 | -$3,180 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (3.4σ) | $-23,085 | $-25,775 | +$7,047 | -$23,305 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$168 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$3.74/sh | +$1,868 cycle +$4,368 [+$1,278…+$1,602] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$27,815 NOT cap gain +$5,008 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$176 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$3.15/sh | +$1,574 cycle +$4,074 [+$488…+$1,094] · 90% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$23,554 NOT cap gain +$9,268 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$176 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.53/sh | +$263 cycle +$2,763 [-$684…-$80] · 15% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$24,865 NOT cap gain +$7,957 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$186 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.23/sh | +$114 cycle +$2,614 [-$1,306…-$449] · 7% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$19,795 NOT cap gain +$13,028 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$206 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$2.64/sh | -$1,319 cycle +$1,181 [-$3,170…-$2,008] | 90% surv 89% | -$10,788 NOT cap gain +$22,035 |
| budget: banked $2,500 debit $1,319 (53% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,181 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,362/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,714/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,955/mo) | +116% |
| vs normal income ($9,911/mo) | 108% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,521/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,529 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 167.8% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 37.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-33,110 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $165.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $166-173.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $173.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $167.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,500 | $-29,683 | +$3,139 | +$2,280 |
| +2.5% | $171.69 (≤1σ, normal week) | $406 | $-29,591 | +$3,232 | +$186 |
| +5% | $175.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,688 | $-29,499 | +$3,324 | -$1,908 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (3.4σ) | $-25,750 | $-28,440 | +$4,382 | -$25,970 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$1.20/sh | +$723 cycle +$963 [+$571…+$1,066] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$42,258 NOT cap gain +$8,475 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.70/sh | +$418 cycle +$658 [+$10…+$711] · 77% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$38,586 NOT cap gain +$12,147 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$36 cycle +$276 [-$257…+$278] · 47% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$41,324 NOT cap gain +$9,409 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$31 cycle +$271 [-$472…+$279] · 40% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$35,438 NOT cap gain +$15,295 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,029/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,796/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($5,593/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $371/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,538 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 260.8% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 59.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.4 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-50,781 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-79.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (1.5σ) | $240 | $-42,981 | +$7,752 | +$234 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (1.7σ) | $-945 | $-43,002 | +$7,731 | -$951 |
| +5% | $82.95 (1.9σ) | $-2,130 | $-43,023 | +$7,710 | -$2,136 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.6σ) | $-37,290 | $-43,656 | +$7,077 | -$36,366 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$75 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$1.25/sh | +$753 cycle +$1,239 [+$483…+$887] · 97% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$44,339 NOT cap gain +$6,394 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.72/sh | +$433 cycle +$919 [-$174…+$487] · 61% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$40,682 NOT cap gain +$10,051 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.12/sh | +$71 cycle +$557 [-$366…+$113] · 35% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$43,400 NOT cap gain +$7,333 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$39 cycle +$525 [-$673…+$51] · 27% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$37,540 NOT cap gain +$13,193 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$91 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.75/sh | -$449 cycle +$37 [-$1,289…-$460] · 9% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$36,261 NOT cap gain +$14,472 |
| budget: banked $486 debit $449 (92% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$37 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,616/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,083/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,796/mo) | -26% |
| vs normal income ($5,593/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,426/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,692 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 274.3% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 62.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.8 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-50,775 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $74.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $74-75.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $75.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $486 | $-45,092 | +$5,642 | +$480 |
| +2.5% | $76.88 (1.2σ) | $-639 | $-45,112 | +$5,621 | -$645 |
| +5% | $78.75 (1.4σ) | $-1,764 | $-45,132 | +$5,601 | -$1,770 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.6σ) | $-39,444 | $-45,810 | +$4,923 | -$38,520 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$73 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$1.28/sh | +$765 cycle +$1,437 [+$488…+$849] · 98% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$45,319 NOT cap gain +$5,414 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.73/sh | +$437 cycle +$1,109 [-$158…+$458] · 63% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$41,670 NOT cap gain +$9,063 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$76 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$85 cycle +$757 [-$342…+$103] · 33% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$44,378 NOT cap gain +$6,355 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$40 cycle +$712 [-$643…+$26] · 26% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$38,532 NOT cap gain +$12,201 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$90 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.97/sh | -$580 cycle +$92 [-$1,423…-$633] · 5% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$36,795 NOT cap gain +$13,938 |
| budget: banked $672 debit $580 (86% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,394/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,880/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,796/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($5,593/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,223/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,706 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 280.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 63.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-50,796 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-74.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $672 | $-46,084 | +$4,649 | +$666 |
| +2.5% | $74.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-423 | $-46,104 | +$4,629 | -$429 |
| +5% | $76.65 (1.2σ) | $-1,518 | $-46,123 | +$4,610 | -$1,524 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.6σ) | $-40,458 | $-46,824 | +$3,909 | -$39,534 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$69 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$1.31/sh | +$784 cycle +$2,128 [+$448…+$688] · 98% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$46,984 NOT cap gain +$3,749 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$1.12/sh | +$673 cycle +$2,017 [+$31…+$452] · 77% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$43,708 NOT cap gain +$7,025 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$72 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.18/sh | +$110 cycle +$1,454 [-$382…-$58] · 19% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$46,039 NOT cap gain +$4,694 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$36 cycle +$1,380 [-$731…-$220] · 13% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$40,220 NOT cap gain +$10,513 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$98 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$1.75/sh | -$1,051 cycle +$293 [-$2,118…-$1,401] | 93% surv 93% | -$31,880 NOT cap gain +$18,853 |
| budget: banked $1,344 debit $1,051 (78% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$293 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $690/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,760/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,796/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($5,593/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,103/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,434 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 291.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 66.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.3 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-50,793 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $68.31 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $68-71.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $71.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $69.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,344 | $-47,769 | +$2,964 | +$1,338 |
| +2.5% | $70.72 (≤1σ, normal week) | $309 | $-47,787 | +$2,946 | +$303 |
| +5% | $72.45 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-726 | $-47,806 | +$2,927 | -$732 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.6σ) | $-42,186 | $-48,552 | +$2,181 | -$41,262 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $647.30 | $653.94 | $42.67 | $27.53 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸ |
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $15.15/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $27.53 is live theta (~$8,258). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs. | ||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (4d) | $742.27 | $764.39 | $0.04 | $0.04 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.73 OTM. The $0.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$411 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $764.39 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| SOFI | RetireInc:7291 | 35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $16.83 | $23.27 | $0.07 | $0.07 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.17 OTM. The $0.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$770 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.27 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (0d) | $72.36 | $81.90 | - | - | OK | expiring OTM, penny buyback at the close, then re-sell |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $364.12 | $378.34 | $0.89 | $0.89 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.88 OTM. The $0.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,292 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $378.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $202.82 | $219.51 | $0.86 | $0.86 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.68 OTM. The $0.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$978 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $219.51 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $321.54 | $355.09 | $3.98 | $3.98 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.46 OTM. The $3.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$504 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $355.09 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $422.76 | $486.90 | $2.67 | $2.67 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 57.24 OTM. The $2.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$685 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $486.90 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $91.90 | $106.34 | $0.93 | $0.93 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.10 OTM. The $0.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$517 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $106.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $127.42 | $151.58 | $0.75 | $0.75 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 22.58 OTM. The $0.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$766 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $151.58 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| RIOT | Joint:1782 | 50x $21.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $18.23 | $21.78 | $0.18 | $0.18 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.27 OTM. The $0.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,150 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $21.78 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $71.00 | $84.96 | $0.73 | $0.73 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.00 OTM. The $0.73 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $154.05 | $188.61 | $0.92 | $0.92 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 33.45 OTM. The $0.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,641 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $188.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $32.43 | $41.03 | $0.38 | $0.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.57 OTM. The $0.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,473 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $41.03 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $33.90 | $42.67 | $0.44 | $0.44 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.10 OTM. The $0.44 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $33.90 | $42.67 | $0.44 | $0.44 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.10 OTM. The $0.44 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $93.60 | $124.00 | $0.94 | $0.94 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 27.40 OTM. The $0.94 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,475 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $122C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $91.90 | $122.50 | $0.26 | $0.26 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 30.10 OTM. The $0.26 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $122.50 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $33.90 | $48.42 | $0.40 | $0.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.10 OTM. The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$746 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.42 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $33.90 | $48.44 | $0.40 | $0.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.10 OTM. The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$786 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.44 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $346.56 | $385.01 | $5.65 | $5.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.44 OTM. The $5.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$22,444 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $385.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $390C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $346.56 | $397.40 | $2.38 | $2.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 43.44 OTM. The $2.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,675 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $397.40 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $244.53 | $283.10 | $1.46 | $1.46 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 35.47 OTM. The $1.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,048 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $283.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $154.05 | $193.34 | $1.85 | $1.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 35.95 OTM. The $1.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$988 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $193.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER 6d | Neville:0865 | 5 | $347.14 | $375.60 | 8.2% | $380 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 91% surv | 19% | $1,070 | $4,586/mo (34%) | $13,446/mo | sell 5x $380 CC |
| IGV ↗ | Main:1299 | 12 | $93.03 | $87.42 | 0.0% | $97 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv | 38% | $360 | $1,543/mo (28%) | $5,464/mo | sell 12x $97 CC |
| NOW ↗⚡ER 6d | Main:1299 | 10 | $105.05 | $113.18 | 7.7% | $119 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv | 39% | $2,060 | $8,829/mo (56%) | $15,643/mo | sell 10x $119 CC |
| IBIT ↗BBC | Joint:1782 | 50 | $35.59 | $35.59 | 0.0% | $37 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 80% surv | 40% | $1,000 | $4,286/mo (42%) | $10,287/mo | sell 50x $37 CC |
| DELL ↗ | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $381.91 | $400.06 | 4.8% | $420 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 80% surv | 41% | $1,350 | $5,786/mo (40%) | $14,400/mo | sell 3x $420 CC |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10 | $256.25 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $188C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $390C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $121C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $122C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| RIOT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $23.65 | 50x $22C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| SOFI | RetireInc:7291 | 35 | $15.75 | 35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $764C 21 Jul 2026 (4d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 14 | 58% | 57% | -1pp |
| 60-70% | 46 | 64% | 72% | +8pp |
| 70-80% | 61 | 77% | 95% | +18pp |
| 80-90% | 76 | 85% | 99% | +14pp |
| 90-100% | 130 | 95% | 100% | +5pp |
Touch odds: predicted 35% avg vs realized 24% touch rate over 327 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 56 real buyback(s) recorded · 13 roll(s), net +$1.01/sh avg.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.