FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $137,299/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $-208/mo ⚠ 5 negative E[net] ⚡ $39,105/mo of that is earnings-blocked (4 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $903,222 locked in if all 10 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | TUNED | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Tuned | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| APP ↗⚡ER 6d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 1 | $392.30 | $606.95 | 1 × $480 $360 cyc · $1,350/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 13% | 🎯⚡ 1 × $470 $580 cyc · $2,175/mo 88% survhist 99% · T:25%hist 13% | 1 × $445 $890 cyc · $3,338/mo 80% survhist 96% · T:42%hist 28% | 1 × $415 $1,920 cyc · $7,200/mo 68% survhist 80% · T:68%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $2,111 | -$13,115 (102.5% IC) | 54.7% |
| CLSK ↗⚡ER 7d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 25 | $13.26 | $17.74 | 25 × $16 $350 cyc · $1,312/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 5% | 20 × $15.50 $440 cyc · $1,650/mo 87% survhist 99% · T:28%hist 13% | 🎯⚡ 22 × $15 $660 cyc · $2,475/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:39%hist 18% | 23 × $14 $1,334 cyc · $5,002/mo 67% survhist 80% · T:70%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$5,365 (57.4% IC) | 33.8% |
| COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 20 | $78.50 | $94.79 | 20 × $88 $100 cyc · $375/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:11%hist 5% | 18 × $83 $1,080 cyc · $4,050/mo 79% survhist 96% · T:44%hist 28% | 🎯 19 × $82 $1,615 cyc · $6,056/mo 74% survhist 96% · T:54%hist 43% | 19 × $79.50 $3,230 cyc · $12,112/mo 58% survhist 79% · T:86%hist 80% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $1,334 | -$22,695 (40.0% IC) | 20.8% |
| CRWV ↗⚡ER 12d Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $68.93 | $129.18 | 5 × $84 $250 cyc · $938/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5% | 🎯 5 × $79 $580 cyc · $2,175/mo 83% survhist 99% · T:35%hist 18% | 5 × $76 $900 cyc · $3,375/mo 76% survhist 96% · T:50%hist 28% | 5 × $70 $1,975 cyc · $7,406/mo 57% survhist 79% · T:91%hist 90% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $301 | -$24,511 (239.7% IC) | 87.4% |
| ENPH ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 10 | $35.59 | $59.02 | 10 × $42 $160 cyc · $600/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5% | 8 × $41.50 $184 cyc · $690/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:21%hist 13% | 🎯 10 × $41 $290 cyc · $1,087/mo 88% survhist 99% · T:25%hist 13% | 8 × $39 $560 cyc · $2,100/mo 78% survhist 96% · T:45%hist 28% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $2,164 | -$17,727 (242.8% IC) | 65.8% |
| INTC ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $87.38 | $117.78 | 5 × $104 $315 cyc · $1,181/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:19%hist 5% | 5 × $100 $515 cyc · $1,931/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:30%hist 13% | 🎯 5 × $97 $750 cyc · $2,812/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28% | 5 × $91 $1,500 cyc · $5,625/mo 65% survhist 80% · T:73%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $2,071 | -$9,641 (66.5% IC) | 34.8% |
| IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 20 | $33.47 | $49.04 | — | 18 × $41 $1,296 cyc · $4,860/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:29%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $39 $1,998 cyc · $7,493/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:42%hist 28% | 20 × $36 $4,000 cyc · $15,000/mo 68% survhist 80% · T:70%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$16,074 (50.2% IC) | 46.5% |
| IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 20 | $33.47 | $49.04 | — | 18 × $41 $1,296 cyc · $4,860/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:29%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $39 $1,998 cyc · $7,493/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:42%hist 28% | 20 × $36 $4,000 cyc · $15,000/mo 68% survhist 80% · T:70%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$16,074 (50.2% IC) | 46.5% |
| IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 20 | $33.47 | $59.67 | 20 × $44 $800 cyc · $3,000/mo 92% survhist 100% · T:17%hist 5% | 18 × $41 $1,296 cyc · $4,860/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:29%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $39 $1,998 cyc · $7,493/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:42%hist 28% | 20 × $36 $4,000 cyc · $15,000/mo 68% survhist 80% · T:70%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $792 | -$35,213 (586.9% IC) | 78.3% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 20 | $33.47 | $68.12 | — | 18 × $41 $1,296 cyc · $4,860/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:29%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $39 $1,998 cyc · $7,493/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:42%hist 28% | 20 × $36 $4,000 cyc · $15,000/mo 68% survhist 80% · T:70%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$50,415 (368.0% IC) | 103.5% |
| MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 8d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 200 | $10.68 | $14.41 | 200 × $13 $2,400 cyc · $9,000/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:21%hist 13% | 🎯⚡ 148 × $12.50 $2,516 cyc · $9,435/mo 85% survhist 99% · T:32%hist 18% | 146 × $12 $3,796 cyc · $14,235/mo 79% survhist 96% · T:45%hist 28% | 200 × $11.50 $7,600 cyc · $28,500/mo 70% survhist 96% · T:63%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$25,735 (234.0% IC) | 34.9% |
| MU-LC880 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 5 | $796.60 | $1,057.05 | 5 × $960 $3,800 cyc · $14,250/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 13% | 5 × $930 $5,700 cyc · $21,375/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:29%hist 13% | 🎯 5 × $895 $8,925 cyc · $33,469/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28% | 5 × $835 $17,775 cyc · $66,656/mo 65% survhist 80% · T:74%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $12,776 | -$72,102 (97.0% IC) | 32.7% |
| MU-LC970 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 2 | $796.60 | $1,247.73 | 2 × $960 $1,520 cyc · $5,700/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 13% | 2 × $930 $2,280 cyc · $8,550/mo 86% survhist 99% · T:29%hist 13% | 🎯 2 × $895 $3,570 cyc · $13,388/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28% | 2 × $835 $7,110 cyc · $26,662/mo 65% survhist 80% · T:74%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $4,427 | -$66,977 (134.0% IC) | 56.6% |
| NEM ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 5 | $92.45 | $117.98 | — | 3 × $98 $183 cyc · $686/mo 82% survhist 99% · T:36%hist 18% | 🎯 5 × $98 $305 cyc · $1,144/mo 82% survhist 99% · T:36%hist 18% | 5 × $95 $585 cyc · $2,194/mo 67% survhist 80% · T:66%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $442 | -$9,687 (71.7% IC) | 27.6% |
| QCOM ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 5 | $148.64 | $228.76 | 5 × $167.50 $545 cyc · $2,044/mo 92% survhist 100% · T:17%hist 5% | 5 × $165 $755 cyc · $2,831/mo 89% survhist 99% · T:22%hist 13% | 🎯 4 × $160 $944 cyc · $3,540/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:39%hist 18% | 5 × $155 $1,875 cyc · $7,031/mo 70% survhist 80% · T:62%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $644 | -$26,562 (156.2% IC) | 53.9% |
| RKLB ↗⚡ER 11d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 6 | $60.52 | $149.23 | 6 × $74 $306 cyc · $1,148/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:19%hist 5% | 🎯 6 × $70 $630 cyc · $2,362/mo 84% survhist 99% · T:33%hist 18% | 6 × $67.50 $894 cyc · $3,352/mo 78% survhist 96% · T:46%hist 28% | 6 × $63 $1,752 cyc · $6,570/mo 63% survhist 80% · T:78%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $863 | -$46,910 (294.5% IC) | 146.6% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗⚡ER 6d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 125 | $19.53 | $34.12 | 125 × $25 $625 cyc · $2,344/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5% | 102 × $23 $3,366 cyc · $12,622/mo 83% survhist 99% · T:35%hist 18% | 🎯⚡ 121 × $22.50 $5,082 cyc · $19,058/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28% | 112 × $21 $10,192 cyc · $38,220/mo 69% survhist 80% · T:66%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $879 | -$135,501 (490.5% IC) | 74.7% |
| TOTAL (17) | 494 | following every 🎯 $34,439 cyc · $129,146/mo | $11,531 cyc · $43,241/mo 13 of 17 | $23,993 cyc · $89,974/mo | $36,613 cyc · $137,299/mo | $73,408 cyc · $275,280/mo | $28,804 | -$594,303 | |||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$485 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.72/sh | +$272 cycle +$632 [-$173…+$851] · 64% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$11,983 NOT cap gain +$10,731 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$480 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.41/sh | +$41 cycle +$401 [-$317…+$559] · 51% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$12,779 NOT cap gain +$9,935 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$480 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$33 cycle +$393 [-$327…+$550] · 50% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$12,765 NOT cap gain +$9,949 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$490 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.67/sh | +$67 cycle +$427 [-$413…+$611] · 49% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$11,644 NOT cap gain +$11,070 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$498 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.39/sh | -$339 cycle +$21 [-$904…+$188] · 29% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$11,235 NOT cap gain +$11,479 |
| budget: banked $360 debit $339 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,300/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,350/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,302/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,335 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 96.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 25.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,834 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $475.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $475-484.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $484.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $480.00 (1.5σ) | $360 | $-12,820 | +$9,894 | +$355 |
| +2.5% | $492.00 (1.8σ) | $-840 | $-12,716 | +$9,998 | -$845 |
| +5% | $504.00 (2.0σ) | $-2,040 | $-12,612 | +$10,102 | -$2,045 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-10,440 | $-11,881 | +$10,833 | -$10,445 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$473 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$4.27/sh | +$427 cycle +$1,007 [-$186…+$880] · 65% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$12,966 NOT cap gain +$9,748 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$470 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.74/sh | +$74 cycle +$654 [-$389…+$505] · 50% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$13,614 NOT cap gain +$9,100 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$470 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.65/sh | +$65 cycle +$645 [-$399…+$496] · 50% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$13,600 NOT cap gain +$9,114 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$480 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.99/sh | +$99 cycle +$679 [-$504…+$557] · 49% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$12,479 NOT cap gain +$10,235 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$493 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$5.08/sh | -$508 cycle +$72 [-$1,224…-$133] · 21% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$11,728 NOT cap gain +$10,986 |
| budget: banked $580 debit $508 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$72 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,917/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,175/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,127/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,115 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 102.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 27.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,809 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $465.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $465-476.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $476.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $470.00 (1.4σ) | $580 | $-13,687 | +$9,027 | +$575 |
| +2.5% | $481.75 (1.6σ) | $-595 | $-13,585 | +$9,129 | -$600 |
| +5% | $493.50 (1.8σ) | $-1,770 | $-13,483 | +$9,231 | -$1,775 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-11,220 | $-12,661 | +$10,053 | -$11,225 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$445 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.89/sh | +$689 cycle +$1,579 [-$6…+$890] · 75% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$15,384 NOT cap gain +$7,330 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$445 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.48/sh | +$148 cycle +$1,038 [-$416…+$333] · 40% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$15,947 NOT cap gain +$6,767 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$458 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.69/sh | +$69 cycle +$959 [-$679…+$235] · 33% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$14,645 NOT cap gain +$8,069 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$448 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.37/sh | +$37 cycle +$927 [-$546…+$209] · 32% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$15,764 NOT cap gain +$6,950 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$480 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$8.03/sh | -$803 cycle +$87 [-$1,770…-$782] · 9% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$13,071 NOT cap gain +$9,643 |
| budget: banked $890 debit $803 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$87 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,172/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,338/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,290/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,305 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 119.6% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 31.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,899 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $440.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $441-455.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $455.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $445.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $890 | $-16,095 | +$6,619 | +$885 |
| +2.5% | $456.12 (1.1σ) | $-222 | $-15,998 | +$6,716 | -$227 |
| +5% | $467.25 (1.3σ) | $-1,335 | $-15,901 | +$6,813 | -$1,340 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-13,410 | $-14,851 | +$7,863 | -$13,415 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$415 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$7.47/sh | +$747 cycle +$2,667 [-$107…+$498] · 68% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$17,557 NOT cap gain +$5,157 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$415 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.26/sh | +$226 cycle +$2,146 [-$476…+$19] · 26% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$18,100 NOT cap gain +$4,614 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$418 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.15/sh | +$115 cycle +$2,035 [-$606…-$98] · 20% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$17,917 NOT cap gain +$4,797 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$428 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.41/sh | +$141 cycle +$2,061 [-$769…-$133] · 19% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$16,804 NOT cap gain +$5,910 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$503 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$18.85/sh | -$1,885 cycle +$35 [-$3,471…-$2,400] | 88% surv 86% | -$10,678 NOT cap gain +$12,036 |
| budget: banked $1,920 debit $1,885 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$35 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,065/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | +132% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 116% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,152/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,275 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 135.0% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 35.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,864 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $410.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $411-435.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $435.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $415.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,920 | $-18,326 | +$4,388 | +$1,915 |
| +2.5% | $425.37 (≤1σ, normal week) | $883 | $-18,236 | +$4,478 | +$878 |
| +5% | $435.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-155 | $-18,145 | +$4,569 | -$160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-15,380 | $-16,821 | +$5,893 | -$15,385 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$563 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.16/sh | +$116 cycle +$136 [-$187…+$1,294] · 69% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$4,054 NOT cap gain +$18,660 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$565 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.42/sh | -$42 cycle -$22 [-$255…+$1,155] · 63% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$3,941 NOT cap gain +$18,773 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$560 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$2.68/sh | -$268 cycle -$248 [-$437…+$818] · 57% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$4,733 NOT cap gain +$17,981 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $75/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $27/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,675 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 36.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 9.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,874 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $554.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $554-561.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $561.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $560.00 (3.0σ) | $20 | $-4,464 | +$18,250 | +$15 |
| +2.5% | $574.00 (3.2σ) | $-1,380 | $-4,343 | +$18,371 | -$1,385 |
| +5% | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-2,780 | $-4,221 | +$18,493 | -$2,785 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$558 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.37/sh | +$137 cycle +$152 [+$158…+$1,257] · 79% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$4,582 NOT cap gain +$18,132 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$555 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$2.46/sh | -$246 cycle -$231 [-$115…+$811] · 66% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$5,259 NOT cap gain +$17,455 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$568 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.32/sh | -$332 cycle -$317 [-$320…+$775] · 62% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$3,964 NOT cap gain +$18,750 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $56/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,180 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 40.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 10.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,786 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $549.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $549-555.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $555.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $555.00 (2.9σ) | $15 | $-5,013 | +$17,701 | +$10 |
| +2.5% | $568.88 (3.1σ) | $-1,372 | $-4,892 | +$17,822 | -$1,378 |
| +5% | $582.75 (3.4σ) | $-2,760 | $-4,772 | +$17,942 | -$2,765 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-3,285 | $-4,726 | +$17,988 | -$3,290 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$555 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$3 cycle +$18 [+$97…+$1,243] · 75% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$4,988 NOT cap gain +$17,726 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$558 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.01/sh | -$101 cycle -$86 [-$17…+$1,122] · 74% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$4,820 NOT cap gain +$17,894 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$550 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$2.25/sh | -$225 cycle -$210 [-$126…+$893] · 62% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$5,781 NOT cap gain +$16,933 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $56/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,680 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 44.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 11.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,789 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $544.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $544-550.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $550.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $550.00 (2.8σ) | $15 | $-5,556 | +$17,158 | +$10 |
| +2.5% | $563.75 (3.0σ) | $-1,360 | $-5,437 | +$17,277 | -$1,365 |
| +5% | $577.50 (3.3σ) | $-2,735 | $-5,317 | +$17,397 | -$2,740 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-3,785 | $-5,226 | +$17,488 | -$3,790 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$550 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$25 cycle +$45 [-$204…+$987] · 65% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$5,504 NOT cap gain +$17,210 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$553 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.79/sh | -$79 cycle -$59 [-$349…+$859] · 62% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$5,336 NOT cap gain +$17,378 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$545 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$2.03/sh | -$203 cycle -$183 [-$390…+$676] · 58% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$6,298 NOT cap gain +$16,416 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $75/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $27/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,175 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 48.2% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 12.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,786 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $539.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $540-545.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $545.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $545.00 (2.7σ) | $20 | $-6,095 | +$16,619 | +$15 |
| +2.5% | $558.62 (2.9σ) | $-1,342 | $-5,976 | +$16,738 | -$1,348 |
| +5% | $572.25 (3.2σ) | $-2,705 | $-5,858 | +$16,856 | -$2,710 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-4,280 | $-5,721 | +$16,993 | -$4,285 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$545 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.47/sh | +$47 cycle +$127 [-$5…+$1,221] · 74% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$5,966 NOT cap gain +$16,748 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$550 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.61/sh | -$161 cycle -$81 [-$273…+$998] · 65% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$5,630 NOT cap gain +$17,084 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$540 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.83/sh | -$183 cycle -$103 [-$171…+$876] · 63% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$6,761 NOT cap gain +$15,953 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $252/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,615 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 51.7% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 13.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,859 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $534.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $535-542.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $542.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $540.00 (2.6σ) | $80 | $-6,578 | +$16,136 | +$75 |
| +2.5% | $553.50 (2.8σ) | $-1,270 | $-6,461 | +$16,253 | -$1,275 |
| +5% | $567.00 (3.1σ) | $-2,620 | $-6,344 | +$16,370 | -$2,625 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-4,720 | $-6,161 | +$16,553 | -$4,725 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$540 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.68/sh | +$68 cycle +$163 [-$36…+$1,081] · 71% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$6,473 NOT cap gain +$16,241 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$535 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.62/sh | -$162 cycle -$67 [-$230…+$764] · 61% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$7,269 NOT cap gain +$15,445 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$545 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.39/sh | -$139 cycle -$44 [-$261…+$849] · 60% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$6,137 NOT cap gain +$16,577 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $356/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $308/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,100 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 55.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 14.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,862 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $529.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $530-537.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $537.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $535.00 (2.5σ) | $95 | $-7,107 | +$15,607 | +$90 |
| +2.5% | $548.38 (2.8σ) | $-1,242 | $-6,991 | +$15,723 | -$1,248 |
| +5% | $561.75 (3.0σ) | $-2,580 | $-6,874 | +$15,840 | -$2,585 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-5,205 | $-6,646 | +$16,068 | -$5,210 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$535 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.89/sh | +$89 cycle +$199 [-$85…+$1,122] · 73% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$6,981 NOT cap gain +$15,733 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$530 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.42/sh | -$142 cycle -$32 [-$262…+$792] · 64% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$7,777 NOT cap gain +$14,937 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$540 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.18/sh | -$118 cycle -$8 [-$318…+$874] · 63% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$6,644 NOT cap gain +$16,070 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $412/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $364/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,585 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 59.3% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 15.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,794 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $524.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $525-531.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $531.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $530.00 (2.4σ) | $110 | $-7,635 | +$15,079 | +$105 |
| +2.5% | $543.25 (2.7σ) | $-1,215 | $-7,520 | +$15,194 | -$1,220 |
| +5% | $556.50 (2.9σ) | $-2,540 | $-7,405 | +$15,309 | -$2,545 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-5,690 | $-7,131 | +$15,583 | -$5,695 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$533 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$6 cycle +$136 [-$214…+$1,128] · 68% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$7,316 NOT cap gain +$15,398 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$525 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.22/sh | -$122 cycle +$8 [-$242…+$895] · 66% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$8,281 NOT cap gain +$14,433 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$538 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.01/sh | -$201 cycle -$71 [-$440…+$901] · 62% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$6,979 NOT cap gain +$15,735 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $488/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -84% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $440/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,065 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 63.0% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 16.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,754 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $519.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $520-526.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $526.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $525.00 (2.3σ) | $130 | $-8,159 | +$14,555 | +$125 |
| +2.5% | $538.12 (2.6σ) | $-1,182 | $-8,045 | +$14,669 | -$1,188 |
| +5% | $551.25 (2.8σ) | $-2,495 | $-7,931 | +$14,783 | -$2,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-6,170 | $-7,611 | +$15,103 | -$6,175 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$528 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$26 cycle +$171 [-$297…+$1,000] · 62% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$7,824 NOT cap gain +$14,890 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$520 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.02/sh | -$102 cycle +$43 [-$345…+$794] · 58% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$8,790 NOT cap gain +$13,924 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $544/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -82% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $496/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,550 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 66.8% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 17.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,776 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $514.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $515-522.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $522.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $520.00 (2.3σ) | $145 | $-8,687 | +$14,027 | +$140 |
| +2.5% | $533.00 (2.5σ) | $-1,155 | $-8,574 | +$14,140 | -$1,160 |
| +5% | $546.00 (2.7σ) | $-2,455 | $-8,461 | +$14,253 | -$2,460 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-6,655 | $-8,096 | +$14,618 | -$6,660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$523 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$45 cycle +$225 [-$229…+$1,007] · 69% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$8,313 NOT cap gain +$14,401 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$515 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.83/sh | -$83 cycle +$97 [-$236…+$801] · 65% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$9,279 NOT cap gain +$13,435 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$525 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$58 cycle +$122 [-$342…+$883] · 63% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$8,145 NOT cap gain +$14,569 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$528 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.61/sh | -$161 cycle +$19 [-$465…+$759] · 58% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$7,976 NOT cap gain +$14,738 |
| budget: banked $180 debit $161 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,952/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $675/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $627/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,015 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 70.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 18.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,762 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $509.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $510-517.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $517.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $515.00 (2.2σ) | $180 | $-9,196 | +$13,518 | +$175 |
| +2.5% | $527.88 (2.4σ) | $-1,108 | $-9,084 | +$13,630 | -$1,112 |
| +5% | $540.75 (2.6σ) | $-2,395 | $-8,972 | +$13,742 | -$2,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-7,120 | $-8,561 | +$14,153 | -$7,125 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$518 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.64/sh | +$64 cycle +$274 [-$148…+$949] · 66% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$8,808 NOT cap gain +$13,906 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$510 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.64/sh | -$64 cycle +$146 [-$230…+$758] · 63% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$9,774 NOT cap gain +$12,940 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$520 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.39/sh | -$39 cycle +$171 [-$260…+$832] · 61% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$8,639 NOT cap gain +$14,075 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$523 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.42/sh | -$142 cycle +$68 [-$381…+$715] · 55% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$8,470 NOT cap gain +$14,244 |
| budget: banked $210 debit $142 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$68 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,933/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $788/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -75% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $740/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,485 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 74.1% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 19.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,764 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $504.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $505-512.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $512.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $510.00 (2.1σ) | $210 | $-9,709 | +$13,005 | +$205 |
| +2.5% | $522.75 (2.3σ) | $-1,065 | $-9,599 | +$13,115 | -$1,070 |
| +5% | $535.50 (2.5σ) | $-2,340 | $-9,488 | +$13,226 | -$2,345 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-7,590 | $-9,031 | +$13,683 | -$7,595 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$513 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.83/sh | +$83 cycle +$323 [-$155…+$1,042] · 66% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$9,302 NOT cap gain +$13,412 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$505 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.46/sh | -$46 cycle +$194 [-$202…+$833] · 61% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$10,269 NOT cap gain +$12,445 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$518 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.23/sh | -$123 cycle +$117 [-$432…+$813] · 57% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$8,965 NOT cap gain +$13,749 |
| budget: banked $240 debit $123 (51% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,914/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $852/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,955 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 77.8% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 20.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,769 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $499.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $500-507.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $507.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $505.00 (2.0σ) | $240 | $-10,223 | +$12,491 | +$235 |
| +2.5% | $517.62 (2.2σ) | $-1,022 | $-10,113 | +$12,601 | -$1,028 |
| +5% | $530.25 (2.4σ) | $-2,285 | $-10,003 | +$12,711 | -$2,290 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-8,060 | $-9,501 | +$13,213 | -$8,065 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$508 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.01/sh | +$101 cycle +$351 [-$307…+$1,014] · 65% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$9,818 NOT cap gain +$12,896 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$500 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.28/sh | -$28 cycle +$222 [-$336…+$811] · 61% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$10,784 NOT cap gain +$11,930 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$513 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.05/sh | -$105 cycle +$145 [-$565…+$769] · 56% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$9,480 NOT cap gain +$13,234 |
| budget: banked $250 debit $105 (42% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,894/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $938/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -70% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $890/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,445 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 81.6% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 21.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,779 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $495.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $495-503.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $503.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $500.00 (1.9σ) | $250 | $-10,756 | +$11,958 | +$245 |
| +2.5% | $512.50 (2.1σ) | $-1,000 | $-10,648 | +$12,066 | -$1,005 |
| +5% | $525.00 (2.3σ) | $-2,250 | $-10,539 | +$12,175 | -$2,255 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-8,550 | $-9,991 | +$12,723 | -$8,555 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$500 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.22/sh | +$222 cycle +$522 [-$206…+$1,039] · 64% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$10,463 NOT cap gain +$12,251 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$495 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.10/sh | -$10 cycle +$290 [-$362…+$739] · 54% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$11,260 NOT cap gain +$11,454 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$505 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$16 cycle +$316 [-$455…+$803] · 52% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$10,125 NOT cap gain +$12,589 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,077/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,895 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 85.1% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 22.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,794 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $490.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $490-498.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $498.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $495.00 (1.8σ) | $300 | $-11,250 | +$11,464 | +$295 |
| +2.5% | $507.37 (2.0σ) | $-937 | $-11,142 | +$11,572 | -$942 |
| +5% | $519.75 (2.2σ) | $-2,175 | $-11,035 | +$11,679 | -$2,180 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-9,000 | $-10,441 | +$12,273 | -$9,005 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$495 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.39/sh | +$239 cycle +$579 [-$203…+$910] · 65% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$10,949 NOT cap gain +$11,765 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$490 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$8 cycle +$348 [-$346…+$630] · 55% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$11,746 NOT cap gain +$10,968 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$500 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$34 cycle +$374 [-$446…+$695] · 54% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$10,611 NOT cap gain +$12,103 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,275/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,227/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,355 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 88.7% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 23.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,919 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $485.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $485-495.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $495.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $490.00 (1.7σ) | $340 | $-11,753 | +$10,961 | +$335 |
| +2.5% | $502.25 (1.9σ) | $-885 | $-11,647 | +$11,067 | -$890 |
| +5% | $514.50 (2.2σ) | $-2,110 | $-11,540 | +$11,174 | -$2,115 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-9,460 | $-10,901 | +$11,813 | -$9,465 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$493 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.53/sh | +$153 cycle +$463 [-$267…+$783] · 61% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$11,336 NOT cap gain +$11,378 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$485 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$25 cycle +$335 [-$298…+$579] · 56% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$12,302 NOT cap gain +$10,412 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$485 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$16 cycle +$326 [-$307…+$570] · 55% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$12,288 NOT cap gain +$10,426 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$495 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$51 cycle +$361 [-$401…+$672] · 54% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$11,167 NOT cap gain +$11,547 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,162/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -62% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,114/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,885 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 92.9% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 24.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,829 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $480.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $480-489.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $489.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $485.00 (1.6σ) | $310 | $-12,327 | +$10,387 | +$305 |
| +2.5% | $497.12 (1.9σ) | $-902 | $-12,221 | +$10,493 | -$907 |
| +5% | $509.25 (2.1σ) | $-2,115 | $-12,116 | +$10,598 | -$2,120 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-9,990 | $-11,431 | +$11,283 | -$9,995 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$478 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$4.14/sh | +$414 cycle +$824 [-$163…+$964] · 65% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$12,606 NOT cap gain +$10,108 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$475 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.58/sh | +$58 cycle +$468 [-$377…+$558] · 48% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$13,256 NOT cap gain +$9,458 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$475 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.49/sh | +$49 cycle +$459 [-$386…+$549] · 47% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$13,242 NOT cap gain +$9,472 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$485 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.83/sh | +$83 cycle +$493 [-$479…+$632] · 47% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$12,122 NOT cap gain +$10,592 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$493 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.22/sh | -$322 cycle +$88 [-$975…+$187] · 30% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$11,711 NOT cap gain +$11,003 |
| budget: banked $410 debit $322 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,278/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,537/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -50% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 25% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,489/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,785 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 99.9% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 26.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-23,004 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $470.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $470-482.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $482.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $475.00 (1.5σ) | $410 | $-13,314 | +$9,400 | +$405 |
| +2.5% | $486.87 (1.7σ) | $-777 | $-13,211 | +$9,503 | -$782 |
| +5% | $498.75 (1.9σ) | $-1,965 | $-13,107 | +$9,607 | -$1,970 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-10,890 | $-12,331 | +$10,383 | -$10,895 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$470 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$3.18/sh | +$318 cycle +$858 [-$229…+$758] · 60% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$13,387 NOT cap gain +$9,327 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$465 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.89/sh | +$89 cycle +$629 [-$346…+$495] · 49% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$14,182 NOT cap gain +$8,532 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$465 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.81/sh | +$81 cycle +$621 [-$357…+$486] · 48% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$14,168 NOT cap gain +$8,546 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$478 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$12 cycle +$552 [-$587…+$387] · 39% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$12,878 NOT cap gain +$9,836 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$488 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$4.92/sh | -$492 cycle +$48 [-$1,205…-$204] · 21% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$12,295 NOT cap gain +$10,419 |
| budget: banked $540 debit $492 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,894/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -35% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,977/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,655 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 106.7% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 28.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,909 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $460.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $460-472.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $472.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $465.00 (1.3σ) | $540 | $-14,271 | +$8,443 | +$535 |
| +2.5% | $476.62 (1.5σ) | $-622 | $-14,170 | +$8,544 | -$627 |
| +5% | $488.25 (1.7σ) | $-1,785 | $-14,069 | +$8,645 | -$1,790 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-11,760 | $-13,201 | +$9,513 | -$11,765 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$463 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$4.54/sh | +$454 cycle +$1,034 [-$195…+$831] · 63% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$14,027 NOT cap gain +$8,687 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$460 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.05/sh | +$105 cycle +$685 [-$382…+$464] · 49% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$14,670 NOT cap gain +$8,044 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$460 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.96/sh | +$96 cycle +$676 [-$391…+$454] · 49% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$14,656 NOT cap gain +$8,058 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$473 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$27 cycle +$607 [-$627…+$393] · 41% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$13,366 NOT cap gain +$9,348 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$485 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$5.76/sh | -$576 cycle +$4 [-$1,386…-$297] · 15% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$12,611 NOT cap gain +$10,103 |
| budget: banked $580 debit $576 (99% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,703/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,175/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,127/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,115 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 110.3% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 29.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,894 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $455.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $455-467.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $467.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $460.00 (1.2σ) | $580 | $-14,774 | +$7,940 | +$575 |
| +2.5% | $471.50 (1.4σ) | $-570 | $-14,674 | +$8,040 | -$575 |
| +5% | $483.00 (1.6σ) | $-1,720 | $-14,574 | +$8,140 | -$1,725 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-12,220 | $-13,661 | +$9,053 | -$12,225 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$458 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$4.66/sh | +$466 cycle +$1,096 [-$247…+$721] · 61% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$14,508 NOT cap gain +$8,206 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$455 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.20/sh | +$120 cycle +$750 [-$417…+$385] · 46% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$15,148 NOT cap gain +$7,566 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$458 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$8 cycle +$638 [-$550…+$253] · 37% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$14,966 NOT cap gain +$7,748 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$468 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.41/sh | +$41 cycle +$671 [-$678…+$294] · 37% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$13,845 NOT cap gain +$8,869 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$480 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$5.60/sh | -$560 cycle +$70 [-$1,431…-$376] · 15% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$13,088 NOT cap gain +$9,626 |
| budget: banked $630 debit $560 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,679/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,362/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -24% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,314/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,565 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 113.8% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 30.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,989 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $450.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $450-464.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $464.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $455.00 (1.1σ) | $630 | $-15,268 | +$7,446 | +$625 |
| +2.5% | $466.37 (1.3σ) | $-507 | $-15,169 | +$7,545 | -$512 |
| +5% | $477.75 (1.5σ) | $-1,645 | $-15,070 | +$7,644 | -$1,650 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-12,670 | $-14,111 | +$8,603 | -$12,675 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$450 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.78/sh | +$678 cycle +$1,468 [+$22…+$924] · 76% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$14,952 NOT cap gain +$7,762 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$450 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.34/sh | +$134 cycle +$924 [-$411…+$359] · 43% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$15,517 NOT cap gain +$7,197 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$453 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$23 cycle +$813 [-$532…+$235] · 35% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$15,335 NOT cap gain +$7,379 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$463 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$55 cycle +$845 [-$648…+$287] · 34% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$14,215 NOT cap gain +$8,499 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$483 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$7.77/sh | -$777 cycle +$13 [-$1,690…-$637] · 11% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$12,873 NOT cap gain +$9,841 |
| budget: banked $790 debit $777 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,267/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,962/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -4% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 48% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,914/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,905 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 116.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 30.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,869 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $445.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $446-459.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $459.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $450.00 (1.0σ) | $790 | $-15,651 | +$7,063 | +$785 |
| +2.5% | $461.25 (1.2σ) | $-335 | $-15,554 | +$7,160 | -$340 |
| +5% | $472.50 (1.4σ) | $-1,460 | $-15,456 | +$7,258 | -$1,465 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-13,010 | $-14,451 | +$8,263 | -$13,015 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$443 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.94/sh | +$694 cycle +$1,594 [+$14…+$871] · 76% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$15,640 NOT cap gain +$7,074 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$442 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.55/sh | +$155 cycle +$1,055 [-$408…+$322] · 41% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,201 NOT cap gain +$6,513 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$445 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.44/sh | +$44 cycle +$944 [-$535…+$196] · 33% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$16,019 NOT cap gain +$6,695 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$455 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.76/sh | +$76 cycle +$976 [-$651…+$223] · 33% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$14,900 NOT cap gain +$7,814 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$478 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$7.95/sh | -$795 cycle +$105 [-$1,744…-$797] · 8% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$13,325 NOT cap gain +$9,389 |
| budget: banked $900 debit $795 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$105 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,160/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,327/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,545 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 121.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 32.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-23,004 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $438.07 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $438-454.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $454.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $442.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $900 | $-16,357 | +$6,357 | +$895 |
| +2.5% | $453.56 (1.1σ) | $-206 | $-16,260 | +$6,454 | -$211 |
| +5% | $464.62 (1.3σ) | $-1,312 | $-16,164 | +$6,550 | -$1,318 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-13,650 | $-15,091 | +$7,623 | -$13,655 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$440 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.99/sh | +$699 cycle +$1,609 [+$12…+$860] · 76% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$15,897 NOT cap gain +$6,817 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$440 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.62/sh | +$162 cycle +$1,072 [-$401…+$306] · 38% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,456 NOT cap gain +$6,258 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$443 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.51/sh | +$51 cycle +$961 [-$530…+$186] · 32% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$16,274 NOT cap gain +$6,440 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$453 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$82 cycle +$992 [-$653…+$202] · 31% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$15,155 NOT cap gain +$7,559 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$475 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$7.88/sh | -$788 cycle +$122 [-$1,734…-$803] · 8% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$13,579 NOT cap gain +$9,135 |
| budget: banked $910 debit $788 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,147/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,412/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,364/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,785 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 123.3% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 32.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,969 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $435.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $436-451.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $451.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $440.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $910 | $-16,618 | +$6,096 | +$905 |
| +2.5% | $451.00 (1.0σ) | $-190 | $-16,523 | +$6,191 | -$195 |
| +5% | $462.00 (1.2σ) | $-1,290 | $-16,427 | +$6,287 | -$1,295 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-13,890 | $-15,331 | +$7,383 | -$13,895 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$438 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$7.05/sh | +$705 cycle +$1,725 [+$7…+$719] · 76% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$16,053 NOT cap gain +$6,661 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$438 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.69/sh | +$169 cycle +$1,189 [-$407…+$204] · 36% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,611 NOT cap gain +$6,103 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$440 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.58/sh | +$58 cycle +$1,078 [-$535…+$67] · 30% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$16,429 NOT cap gain +$6,285 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$450 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.89/sh | +$89 cycle +$1,109 [-$660…+$72] · 29% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$15,311 NOT cap gain +$7,403 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$478 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$9.48/sh | -$948 cycle +$72 [-$1,932…-$1,046] · 4% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$13,358 NOT cap gain +$9,356 |
| budget: banked $1,020 debit $948 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$72 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,855/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | +23% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 62% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,777/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,925 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 124.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 33.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,964 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $433.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $433-450.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $450.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $437.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,020 | $-16,780 | +$5,934 | +$1,015 |
| +2.5% | $448.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-74 | $-16,685 | +$6,029 | -$79 |
| +5% | $459.38 (1.2σ) | $-1,168 | $-16,590 | +$6,124 | -$1,172 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.5σ) | $-14,030 | $-15,471 | +$7,243 | -$14,035 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$622 cycle +$972 [+$285…+$1,099] · 87% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$1,206 NOT cap gain +$8,144 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$521 cycle +$871 [+$238…+$939] · 86% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$2,838 NOT cap gain +$6,512 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$234 cycle +$584 [-$92…+$644] · 66% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$2,622 NOT cap gain +$6,728 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$18 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.12/sh | -$304 cycle +$46 [-$795…+$117] · 28% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$77 NOT cap gain +$9,273 |
| budget: banked $350 debit $304 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,754/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,312/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,425/mo) | -46% |
| vs normal income ($4,850/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,312/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,996 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 42.7% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 14.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-9,488 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (1.4σ) | $350 | $-3,359 | +$5,991 | +$325 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (1.6σ) | $-650 | $-3,537 | +$5,813 | -$675 |
| +5% | $16.80 (1.8σ) | $-1,650 | $-3,715 | +$5,635 | -$1,675 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (3.7σ) | $-11,500 | $-5,468 | +$3,882 | -$9,675 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$398 cycle +$838 [+$97…+$657] · 82% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$3,894 NOT cap gain +$5,456 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$446 cycle +$886 [+$90…+$733] · 81% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$2,314 NOT cap gain +$7,036 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$169 cycle +$609 [-$155…+$402] · 57% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$3,619 NOT cap gain +$5,731 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.14/sh | -$281 cycle +$159 [-$761…-$88] · 21% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$986 NOT cap gain +$8,364 |
| budget: banked $440 debit $281 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$159 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,779/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,425/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($4,850/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,660/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,037 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 43.2% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 15.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-7,550 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.76 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.76 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (1.1σ) | $440 | $-4,292 | +$5,058 | +$420 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (1.3σ) | $-335 | $-4,270 | +$5,080 | -$355 |
| +5% | $16.28 (1.5σ) | $-1,110 | $-4,249 | +$5,101 | -$1,130 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (3.7σ) | $-10,040 | $-4,373 | +$4,977 | -$8,580 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (22 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$417 cycle +$1,077 [+$17…+$563] · 77% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$4,684 NOT cap gain +$4,666 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$435 cycle +$1,095 [-$41…+$595] · 72% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$3,135 NOT cap gain +$6,215 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$166 cycle +$826 [-$265…+$296] · 47% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$4,432 NOT cap gain +$4,918 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.16/sh | -$347 cycle +$313 [-$957…-$233] · 15% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$1,862 NOT cap gain +$7,488 |
| budget: banked $660 debit $347 (53% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$313 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $2,819/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,475/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,425/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($4,850/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,481/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,365 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 57.4% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 20.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (22 ct) | $-8,338 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $660 | $-5,101 | +$4,249 | +$638 |
| +2.5% | $15.37 (1.1σ) | $-165 | $-5,155 | +$4,195 | -$187 |
| +5% | $15.75 (1.2σ) | $-990 | $-5,210 | +$4,140 | -$1,012 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (3.7σ) | $-11,968 | $-6,155 | +$3,195 | -$10,362 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (23 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$806 cycle +$2,140 [+$261…+$674] · 91% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$5,173 NOT cap gain +$4,177 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$393 cycle +$1,727 [-$113…+$264] · 61% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$6,090 NOT cap gain +$3,260 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$344 cycle +$1,678 [-$278…+$183] · 41% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$4,608 NOT cap gain +$4,742 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$134 cycle +$1,468 [-$422…-$15] · 24% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$5,846 NOT cap gain +$3,504 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$18 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.57/sh | -$1,321 cycle +$13 [-$2,418…-$1,666] | 88% surv 87% | -$108 NOT cap gain +$9,242 |
| budget: banked $1,334 debit $1,321 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $1,000/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,002/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,425/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($4,850/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,006/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,264 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 77.7% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 27.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (23 ct) | $-8,786 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.66 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.66 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,334 | $-6,483 | +$2,867 | +$1,311 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $529 | $-6,569 | +$2,781 | +$506 |
| +5% | $14.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-276 | $-6,655 | +$2,695 | -$299 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (3.7σ) | $-14,168 | $-8,282 | +$1,068 | -$12,489 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$689 cycle +$914 [+$438…+$1,316] · 90% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$237 NOT cap gain +$9,113 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.22/sh | +$546 cycle +$771 [+$332…+$1,112] · 90% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$1,911 NOT cap gain +$7,439 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$257 cycle +$482 [-$6…+$774] · 75% credit | 70% surv 57% | -$1,696 NOT cap gain +$7,654 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $844/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,425/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($4,850/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $844/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,871 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 30.7% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 10.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-9,475 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.50 (1.6σ) | $225 | $-2,457 | +$6,893 | +$200 |
| +2.5% | $16.91 (1.8σ) | $-806 | $-2,640 | +$6,710 | -$831 |
| +5% | $17.32 (2.0σ) | $-1,837 | $-2,824 | +$6,526 | -$1,862 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (3.7σ) | $-10,375 | $-4,343 | +$5,007 | -$8,550 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$294 cycle +$996 [+$37…+$172] · 82% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$7,332 NOT cap gain +$2,018 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$146 cycle +$848 [-$94…+$36] · 43% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$7,983 NOT cap gain +$1,367 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$114 cycle +$816 [-$181…-$24] · 21% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$6,484 NOT cap gain +$2,866 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$45 cycle +$747 [-$218…-$76] · 11% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$7,580 NOT cap gain +$1,770 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$18 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.63/sh | -$564 cycle +$138 [-$1,122…-$779] | 91% surv 90% | +$31 SAFE cap gain +$9,381 |
| budget: banked $702 debit $564 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$138 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $247/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,632/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,425/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($4,850/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,664/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,113 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 33.3% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 11.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-3,438 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-14.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $702 | $-8,129 | +$1,221 | +$693 |
| +2.5% | $13.84 (≤1σ, normal week) | $398 | $-7,739 | +$1,611 | +$389 |
| +5% | $14.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $94 | $-7,349 | +$2,001 | +$85 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (3.7σ) | $-5,814 | $-950 | +$8,400 | -$5,157 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$108 cycle +$808 | 68% surv 54% | -$8,524 NOT cap gain +$826 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$12 cycle +$712 | 75% surv 67% | -$7,089 NOT cap gain +$2,261 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$405 cycle +$295 | 91% surv 90% | -$1,341 NOT cap gain +$8,009 |
| budget: banked $700 debit $405 (58% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$295 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $197/mo while parked; 18 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,425/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($4,850/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,661/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,617 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 28.0% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 9.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-2,688 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-14.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $700 | $-8,632 | +$718 | +$693 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (≤1σ, normal week) | $473 | $-8,716 | +$634 | +$466 |
| +5% | $13.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $245 | $-8,275 | +$1,075 | +$238 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (3.7σ) | $-4,718 | $-0 | +$9,350 | -$4,207 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$529 cycle +$629 [-$306…+$1,988] · 67% credit | 68% surv 56% | -$10,942 NOT cap gain +$20,558 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$120 cycle +$220 [-$730…+$1,538] · 57% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$10,402 NOT cap gain +$21,098 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$58 cycle +$158 [-$662…+$1,383] · 57% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$13,311 NOT cap gain +$18,189 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $375/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,489 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 23.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 13.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $87.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $87-88.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $88.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $88.00 (1.6σ) | $100 | $-13,369 | +$18,131 | -$200 |
| +2.5% | $90.20 (2.0σ) | $-4,300 | $-13,593 | +$17,907 | -$4,200 |
| +5% | $92.40 (2.4σ) | $-8,700 | $-13,818 | +$17,682 | -$4,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-10,700 | $-13,920 | +$17,580 | -$4,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$344 cycle +$1,424 [-$1,100…+$672] · 40% credit | 68% surv 56% | -$19,607 NOT cap gain +$11,893 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$47 cycle +$1,127 [-$1,191…+$350] · 33% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$21,802 NOT cap gain +$9,698 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.46/sh | -$833 cycle +$247 [-$2,459…-$608] · 16% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$17,937 NOT cap gain +$13,563 |
| budget: banked $1,080 debit $833 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$247 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $7,151/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,110/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,150 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 35.5% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 20.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-28,935 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $82.17 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $82-83.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $83.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $83.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,080 | $-21,849 | +$9,651 | +$810 |
| +2.5% | $85.07 (1.1σ) | $-2,655 | $-21,646 | +$9,854 | -$2,925 |
| +5% | $87.15 (1.5σ) | $-6,390 | $-21,442 | +$10,058 | -$6,660 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-17,640 | $-21,510 | +$9,990 | -$11,790 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$337 cycle +$1,952 [-$1,487…+$276] · 30% credit | 68% surv 56% | -$20,992 NOT cap gain +$10,508 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$48 cycle +$1,663 [-$1,511…+$1] · 25% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$23,179 NOT cap gain +$8,321 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.67/sh | -$1,280 cycle +$335 [-$3,386…-$1,485] · 7% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$17,864 NOT cap gain +$13,636 |
| budget: banked $1,615 debit $1,280 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$335 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $6,665/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,056/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,086/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,695 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 40.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 22.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-30,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $81.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $81-83.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $83.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $82.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,615 | $-23,227 | +$8,273 | +$1,330 |
| +2.5% | $84.05 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,280 | $-23,231 | +$8,269 | -$2,565 |
| +5% | $86.10 (1.3σ) | $-6,175 | $-23,235 | +$8,265 | -$6,460 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-20,045 | $-23,590 | +$7,910 | -$13,870 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$271 cycle +$3,501 [-$2,099…-$828] · 11% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$24,188 NOT cap gain +$7,312 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$46 cycle +$3,276 [-$1,972…-$890] · 9% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$26,311 NOT cap gain +$5,189 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$2,857 cycle +$373 [-$6,042…-$4,197] | 81% surv 77% | -$16,877 NOT cap gain +$14,623 |
| budget: banked $3,230 debit $2,857 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$373 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $3,507/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,142/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,830 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 45.5% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 25.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-30,732 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-81.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,230 | $-26,357 | +$5,143 | +$2,945 |
| +2.5% | $81.49 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-546 | $-26,361 | +$5,139 | -$831 |
| +5% | $83.48 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-4,323 | $-26,365 | +$5,135 | -$4,608 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-23,180 | $-26,725 | +$4,775 | -$17,005 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$499 cycle +$599 [-$313…+$1,805] · 67% credit | 68% surv 56% | -$12,870 NOT cap gain +$18,630 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$57 cycle +$157 [-$634…+$1,210] · 56% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$15,210 NOT cap gain +$16,290 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$91 cycle +$191 [-$781…+$1,382] · 55% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$12,329 NOT cap gain +$19,171 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $375/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,489 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 27.3% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 15.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $86.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $86-87.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $87.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $87.00 (1.5σ) | $100 | $-15,267 | +$16,233 | -$200 |
| +2.5% | $89.17 (1.8σ) | $-4,250 | $-15,489 | +$16,011 | -$4,550 |
| +5% | $91.35 (2.2σ) | $-8,600 | $-15,711 | +$15,789 | -$6,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-12,700 | $-15,920 | +$15,580 | -$6,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$1,090 cycle +$1,390 [-$105…+$2,128] · 73% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$14,926 NOT cap gain +$16,574 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$56 cycle +$356 [-$1,072…+$961] · 43% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$16,909 NOT cap gain +$14,591 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$63 cycle +$363 [-$1,291…+$1,040] · 43% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$14,055 NOT cap gain +$17,445 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -81% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,125/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,289 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 30.4% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 17.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $85.14 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $85-86.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $86.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $86.00 (1.3σ) | $300 | $-16,965 | +$14,535 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $88.15 (1.7σ) | $-4,000 | $-17,184 | +$14,316 | -$4,300 |
| +5% | $90.30 (2.0σ) | $-8,300 | $-17,404 | +$14,096 | -$8,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-14,500 | $-17,720 | +$13,780 | -$8,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.53/sh | +$1,055 cycle +$1,755 [-$297…+$1,815] · 66% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$16,459 NOT cap gain +$15,041 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$54 cycle +$754 [-$1,207…+$644] · 38% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$18,409 NOT cap gain +$13,091 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$35 cycle +$735 [-$1,491…+$632] · 37% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$15,581 NOT cap gain +$15,919 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,625/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,889 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 33.3% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 18.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-31,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $84.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-85.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $85.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $85.00 (1.1σ) | $700 | $-18,463 | +$13,037 | +$400 |
| +2.5% | $87.12 (1.5σ) | $-3,550 | $-18,680 | +$12,820 | -$3,850 |
| +5% | $89.25 (1.9σ) | $-7,800 | $-18,897 | +$12,603 | -$8,100 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-16,100 | $-19,320 | +$12,180 | -$9,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$1,021 cycle +$1,921 [-$473…+$1,546] · 61% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$18,191 NOT cap gain +$13,309 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$53 cycle +$953 [-$1,317…+$506] · 35% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$20,108 NOT cap gain +$11,392 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$8 cycle +$908 [-$1,644…+$499] · 33% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$17,306 NOT cap gain +$14,194 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | -44% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 28% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,375/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,689 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 36.4% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 20.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $83.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $83-84.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $84.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $84.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $900 | $-20,161 | +$11,339 | +$600 |
| +2.5% | $86.10 (1.3σ) | $-3,300 | $-20,375 | +$11,125 | -$3,600 |
| +5% | $88.20 (1.7σ) | $-7,500 | $-20,589 | +$10,911 | -$7,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-17,900 | $-21,120 | +$10,380 | -$11,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$289 cycle +$1,904 [-$1,419…-$128] · 23% credit | 68% surv 56% | -$21,959 NOT cap gain +$9,541 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$43 cycle +$1,658 [-$1,414…-$303] · 19% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$24,103 NOT cap gain +$7,397 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.68/sh | -$1,153 cycle +$462 [-$3,099…-$1,647] · 6% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$18,656 NOT cap gain +$12,844 |
| budget: banked $1,615 debit $1,153 (71% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$462 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $5,854/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,056/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,146/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,986 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 36.9% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 20.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-27,795 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $81-83.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $83.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,615 | $-24,146 | +$7,354 | +$1,360 |
| +2.5% | $83.54 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,849 | $-23,743 | +$7,757 | -$2,104 |
| +5% | $85.58 (1.2σ) | $-5,313 | $-23,339 | +$8,161 | -$5,568 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-18,615 | $-22,810 | +$8,690 | -$13,090 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$229 cycle +$1,839 [-$1,177…-$115] · 22% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$22,928 NOT cap gain +$8,572 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$35 cycle +$1,645 [-$1,165…-$259] · 18% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$25,020 NOT cap gain +$6,480 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.03/sh | -$1,436 cycle +$174 [-$3,145…-$1,893] · 2% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$17,950 NOT cap gain +$13,550 |
| budget: banked $1,610 debit $1,436 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$174 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $3,933/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,038/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,218/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,702 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 31.2% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 17.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-22,855 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.19 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-82.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,610 | $-25,055 | +$6,445 | +$1,400 |
| +2.5% | $83.02 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,225 | $-24,047 | +$7,453 | -$1,435 |
| +5% | $85.05 (1.1σ) | $-4,060 | $-23,038 | +$8,462 | -$4,270 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-15,750 | $-20,920 | +$10,580 | -$11,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (13 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$203 cycle +$1,893 [-$1,167…-$240] · 17% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$23,808 NOT cap gain +$7,692 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$32 cycle +$1,722 [-$1,138…-$344] · 14% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$25,877 NOT cap gain +$5,623 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.27/sh | -$1,652 cycle +$38 [-$3,397…-$2,268] · 1% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$17,122 NOT cap gain +$14,378 |
| budget: banked $1,690 debit $1,652 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$38 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $3,048/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,338/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,548/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,893 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 29.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 16.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (13 ct) | $-21,320 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-82.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,690 | $-25,909 | +$5,591 | +$1,495 |
| +2.5% | $82.51 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-926 | $-24,706 | +$6,794 | -$1,121 |
| +5% | $84.53 (1.0σ) | $-3,543 | $-23,502 | +$7,998 | -$3,738 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-15,080 | $-20,575 | +$10,925 | -$10,855 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$164 cycle +$1,814 [-$1,062…-$325] · 15% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$24,806 NOT cap gain +$6,694 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$27 cycle +$1,677 [-$1,018…-$389] · 12% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$26,841 NOT cap gain +$4,659 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.27/sh | -$1,397 cycle +$253 [-$2,966…-$2,013] · 0% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$17,826 NOT cap gain +$13,674 |
| budget: banked $1,650 debit $1,397 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$253 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,519/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,458/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,624 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 25.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 14.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-17,792 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-81.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,650 | $-26,868 | +$4,632 | +$1,485 |
| +2.5% | $82.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-550 | $-25,272 | +$6,228 | -$715 |
| +5% | $84.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,750 | $-23,676 | +$7,824 | -$2,915 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-13,090 | $-19,235 | +$12,265 | -$9,515 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$122 cycle +$1,877 [-$1,091…-$435] · 9% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$26,611 NOT cap gain +$4,889 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$21 cycle +$1,776 [-$1,012…-$454] · 8% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$28,610 NOT cap gain +$2,890 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.90/sh | -$1,710 cycle +$45 [-$3,515…-$2,446] | 85% surv 83% | -$14,208 NOT cap gain +$17,292 |
| budget: banked $1,755 debit $1,710 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$45 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $1,017/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,581/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,911/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,460 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 21.9% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 12.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-14,782 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-81.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,755 | $-28,631 | +$2,869 | +$1,620 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-22 | $-26,660 | +$4,840 | -$157 |
| +5% | $82.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,800 | $-24,689 | +$6,811 | -$1,935 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-11,205 | $-18,000 | +$13,500 | -$8,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$19 cycle +$1,779 | 66% surv 52% | -$29,541 NOT cap gain +$1,959 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$103 cycle +$1,863 | 68% surv 57% | -$27,559 NOT cap gain +$3,941 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.14/sh | -$1,715 cycle +$45 | 89% surv 88% | -$11,346 NOT cap gain +$20,154 |
| budget: banked $1,760 debit $1,715 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$45 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $536/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,960/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,276 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 19.9% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 11.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-13,160 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-81.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,760 | $-29,560 | +$1,940 | +$1,640 |
| +2.5% | $80.46 (≤1σ, normal week) | $190 | $-27,405 | +$4,095 | +$70 |
| +5% | $82.42 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,380 | $-25,250 | +$6,250 | -$1,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-10,160 | $-17,280 | +$14,220 | -$7,560 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$16 cycle +$1,766 | 66% surv 52% | -$29,539 NOT cap gain +$1,961 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$145 cycle +$1,895 | 68% surv 57% | -$28,461 NOT cap gain +$3,039 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.16/sh | -$1,515 cycle +$235 | 90% surv 90% | -$11,141 NOT cap gain +$20,359 |
| budget: banked $1,750 debit $1,515 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$235 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $407/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,952/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,006 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 17.6% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 9.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-11,340 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-80.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,750 | $-29,555 | +$1,945 | +$1,645 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $385 | $-28,168 | +$3,332 | +$280 |
| +5% | $81.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-980 | $-25,832 | +$5,668 | -$1,085 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-9,030 | $-16,475 | +$15,025 | -$6,755 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$16 cycle +$1,836 | 66% surv 52% | -$29,469 NOT cap gain +$2,031 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$4 cycle +$1,824 | 70% surv 59% | -$28,532 NOT cap gain +$2,968 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.18/sh | -$1,526 cycle +$294 | 91% surv 91% | -$11,082 NOT cap gain +$20,418 |
| budget: banked $1,820 debit $1,526 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$294 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $351/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,215/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,286 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 18.1% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 10.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-11,410 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-80.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,820 | $-29,485 | +$2,015 | +$1,715 |
| +2.5% | $79.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $464 | $-29,062 | +$2,438 | +$359 |
| +5% | $81.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-892 | $-26,741 | +$4,759 | -$998 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-9,310 | $-16,755 | +$14,745 | -$7,035 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$14 cycle +$1,724 | 66% surv 52% | -$29,566 NOT cap gain +$1,934 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$78 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$142 cycle +$1,852 | 69% surv 57% | -$29,438 NOT cap gain +$2,062 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.10/sh | -$1,261 cycle +$449 | 90% surv 90% | -$12,810 NOT cap gain +$18,690 |
| budget: banked $1,710 debit $1,261 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$449 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $348/mo while parked; 14 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,412/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,000/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($12,000/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,832/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,967 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 15.8% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 8.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-10,005 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-80.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,710 | $-29,580 | +$1,920 | +$1,620 |
| +2.5% | $78.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $555 | $-29,928 | +$1,572 | +$465 |
| +5% | $80.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-600 | $-27,430 | +$4,070 | -$690 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-8,130 | $-15,900 | +$15,600 | -$6,180 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.06/sh | +$1,032 cycle +$1,282 [+$815…+$1,307] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$21,965 NOT cap gain +$8,960 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$92 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.49/sh | +$243 cycle +$493 [-$142…+$541] · 64% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$18,642 NOT cap gain +$12,283 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$89 cycle +$339 [-$321…+$376] · 49% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$18,287 NOT cap gain +$12,638 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$89 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$75 cycle +$325 [-$332…+$279] · 45% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$20,593 NOT cap gain +$10,332 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.24/sh | -$119 cycle +$131 [-$580…+$134] · 30% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$17,475 NOT cap gain +$13,450 |
| budget: banked $250 debit $119 (47% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,241/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $938/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -70% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $584/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,341 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 218.5% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 44.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,967 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $83.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $83-84.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $84.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $84.00 (1.4σ) | $250 | $-22,997 | +$7,928 | +$245 |
| +2.5% | $86.10 (1.6σ) | $-800 | $-22,977 | +$7,948 | -$805 |
| +5% | $88.20 (1.8σ) | $-1,850 | $-22,957 | +$7,968 | -$1,855 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-20,475 | $-22,603 | +$8,322 | -$20,255 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.09/sh | +$1,045 cycle +$1,625 [+$750…+$1,161] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$24,170 NOT cap gain +$6,755 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$410 cycle +$990 [-$46…+$526] · 72% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$21,203 NOT cap gain +$9,722 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$106 cycle +$686 [-$419…+$201] · 39% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$20,487 NOT cap gain +$10,438 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$0 cycle +$580 [-$524…+$45] · 28% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$22,631 NOT cap gain +$8,294 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.05/sh | -$526 cycle +$54 [-$1,257…-$485] · 8% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$18,572 NOT cap gain +$12,353 |
| budget: banked $580 debit $526 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,357/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,175/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,821/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,511 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 239.7% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 48.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,980 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-80.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $580 | $-25,214 | +$5,711 | +$575 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (1.1σ) | $-407 | $-25,196 | +$5,729 | -$412 |
| +5% | $82.95 (1.3σ) | $-1,395 | $-25,177 | +$5,748 | -$1,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-22,645 | $-24,773 | +$6,152 | -$22,425 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.10/sh | +$1,048 cycle +$1,948 [+$722…+$1,040] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$25,375 NOT cap gain +$5,550 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$411 cycle +$1,311 [-$82…+$369] · 68% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$22,410 NOT cap gain +$8,515 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$111 cycle +$1,011 [-$443…+$54] · 28% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$21,691 NOT cap gain +$9,234 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$11 cycle +$911 [-$529…-$64] · 20% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$23,829 NOT cap gain +$7,096 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.73/sh | -$866 cycle +$34 [-$1,720…-$1,002] · 0% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$18,082 NOT cap gain +$12,843 |
| budget: banked $900 debit $866 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,668/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,021/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,691 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 251.3% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 51.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,992 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.24 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $75-77.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $76.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $900 | $-26,423 | +$4,502 | +$895 |
| +2.5% | $77.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-50 | $-26,405 | +$4,520 | -$55 |
| +5% | $79.80 (1.0σ) | $-1,000 | $-26,387 | +$4,538 | -$1,005 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-23,825 | $-25,953 | +$4,972 | -$23,605 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$70 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.09/sh | +$1,045 cycle +$3,020 [+$593…+$840] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$27,360 NOT cap gain +$3,565 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$76 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.18/sh | +$592 cycle +$2,567 [-$36…+$310] · 72% credit | 77% surv 68% | -$24,720 NOT cap gain +$6,205 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$107 cycle +$2,082 [-$658…-$210] · 10% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$23,676 NOT cap gain +$7,249 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$24 cycle +$1,999 [-$696…-$245] · 7% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$25,798 NOT cap gain +$5,127 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.35/sh | -$1,173 cycle +$802 [-$2,505…-$1,671] | 91% surv 90% | -$17,569 NOT cap gain +$13,356 |
| budget: banked $1,975 debit $1,173 (59% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$802 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $911/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,406/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | +133% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 117% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,052/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,616 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 270.1% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 55.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,975 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $69.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $69-74.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $70.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,975 | $-28,405 | +$2,520 | +$1,970 |
| +2.5% | $71.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,100 | $-28,388 | +$2,537 | +$1,095 |
| +5% | $73.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $225 | $-28,372 | +$2,553 | +$220 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-25,750 | $-27,878 | +$3,047 | -$25,530 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$96 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.92/sh | +$961 cycle +$991 [+$934…+$1,481] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$16,142 NOT cap gain +$14,783 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$100 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$115 cycle +$145 [-$66…+$486] · 70% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$14,914 NOT cap gain +$16,011 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$106 cycle +$136 [-$88…+$624] · 70% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$12,631 NOT cap gain +$18,294 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.00/sh | -$2 cycle +$28 [-$206…+$504] · 65% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$12,484 NOT cap gain +$18,441 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-242/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,561 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 162.0% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 33.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-31,050 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $95.04 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $95-96.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $96.00 (2.5σ) | $30 | $-17,103 | +$13,822 | +$25 |
| +2.5% | $98.40 (2.7σ) | $-1,170 | $-17,080 | +$13,845 | -$1,175 |
| +5% | $100.80 (3.0σ) | $-2,370 | $-17,057 | +$13,868 | -$2,375 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-14,695 | $-16,823 | +$14,102 | -$14,475 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$95 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.94/sh | +$969 cycle +$1,004 [+$880…+$1,544] · 94% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$16,638 NOT cap gain +$14,287 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$99 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$124 cycle +$159 [-$202…+$620] · 68% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$15,409 NOT cap gain +$15,516 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$9 cycle +$44 [-$317…+$609] · 64% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$12,978 NOT cap gain +$17,947 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $131/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-223/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,056 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 166.8% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 34.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,995 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $94.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $94-95.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $95.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $95.00 (2.4σ) | $35 | $-17,607 | +$13,318 | +$30 |
| +2.5% | $97.37 (2.7σ) | $-1,152 | $-17,585 | +$13,340 | -$1,157 |
| +5% | $99.75 (2.9σ) | $-2,340 | $-17,562 | +$13,363 | -$2,345 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-15,190 | $-17,318 | +$13,607 | -$14,970 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$94 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.95/sh | +$977 cycle +$1,012 [+$974…+$1,476] · 96% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$17,140 NOT cap gain +$13,785 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$18 cycle +$53 [-$177…+$504] · 66% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$13,477 NOT cap gain +$17,448 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$99 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$4 cycle +$39 [-$237…+$372] · 62% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$15,785 NOT cap gain +$15,140 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $131/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-223/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,556 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 171.7% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 35.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-31,060 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $93.06 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $93-94.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $94.00 (2.3σ) | $35 | $-18,117 | +$12,808 | +$30 |
| +2.5% | $96.35 (2.6σ) | $-1,140 | $-18,095 | +$12,830 | -$1,145 |
| +5% | $98.70 (2.8σ) | $-2,315 | $-18,072 | +$12,853 | -$2,320 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-15,690 | $-17,818 | +$13,107 | -$15,470 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$93 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.97/sh | +$984 cycle +$1,024 [+$780…+$1,505] · 96% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$17,637 NOT cap gain +$13,288 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$28 cycle +$68 [-$349…+$563] · 61% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$13,973 NOT cap gain +$16,952 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$98 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$12 cycle +$52 [-$348…+$443] · 57% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$16,281 NOT cap gain +$14,644 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-204/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,051 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 176.5% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 35.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-31,015 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $92.07 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $92-93.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $93.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $93.00 (2.2σ) | $40 | $-18,621 | +$12,304 | +$35 |
| +2.5% | $95.32 (2.5σ) | $-1,122 | $-18,599 | +$12,326 | -$1,127 |
| +5% | $97.65 (2.7σ) | $-2,285 | $-18,577 | +$12,348 | -$2,290 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-16,185 | $-18,313 | +$12,612 | -$15,965 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.98/sh | +$991 cycle +$1,056 [+$918…+$1,444] · 97% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$18,115 NOT cap gain +$12,810 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$101 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$37 cycle +$102 [-$205…+$466] · 63% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$14,448 NOT cap gain +$16,477 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$97 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$21 cycle +$86 [-$251…+$345] · 59% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$16,757 NOT cap gain +$14,168 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $244/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-110/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,526 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 181.2% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 36.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,962 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $91.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $91-92.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $92.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $92.00 (2.1σ) | $65 | $-19,106 | +$11,819 | +$60 |
| +2.5% | $94.30 (2.4σ) | $-1,085 | $-19,084 | +$11,841 | -$1,090 |
| +5% | $96.60 (2.6σ) | $-2,235 | $-19,062 | +$11,863 | -$2,240 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-16,660 | $-18,788 | +$12,137 | -$16,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$91 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.99/sh | +$997 cycle +$1,077 [+$951…+$1,543] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$18,603 NOT cap gain +$12,322 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$45 cycle +$125 [-$131…+$630] · 69% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$14,934 NOT cap gain +$15,991 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$96 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$29 cycle +$109 [-$171…+$507] · 59% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$17,243 NOT cap gain +$13,682 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-54/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,011 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 185.9% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 37.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,957 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $90.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $90-91.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $91.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $91.00 (2.1σ) | $80 | $-19,600 | +$11,325 | +$75 |
| +2.5% | $93.27 (2.3σ) | $-1,057 | $-19,579 | +$11,346 | -$1,062 |
| +5% | $95.55 (2.5σ) | $-2,195 | $-19,557 | +$11,368 | -$2,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-17,145 | $-19,273 | +$11,652 | -$16,925 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.01/sh | +$1,003 cycle +$1,103 [+$855…+$1,510] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$19,087 NOT cap gain +$11,838 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.32/sh | +$158 cycle +$258 [-$107…+$680] · 66% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$15,566 NOT cap gain +$15,359 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$53 cycle +$153 [-$229…+$565] · 57% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$15,416 NOT cap gain +$15,509 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$95 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$36 cycle +$136 [-$264…+$425] · 53% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$17,725 NOT cap gain +$13,200 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $21/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,491 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 190.6% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 38.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,947 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-90.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (2.0σ) | $100 | $-20,090 | +$10,835 | +$95 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (2.2σ) | $-1,025 | $-20,069 | +$10,856 | -$1,030 |
| +5% | $94.50 (2.4σ) | $-2,150 | $-20,047 | +$10,878 | -$2,155 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-17,625 | $-19,753 | +$11,172 | -$17,405 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$89 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.02/sh | +$1,009 cycle +$1,119 [+$921…+$1,528] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$19,580 NOT cap gain +$11,345 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$98 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$60 cycle +$170 [-$196…+$607] · 61% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$15,908 NOT cap gain +$15,017 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$94 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$44 cycle +$154 [-$224…+$487] · 58% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$18,217 NOT cap gain +$12,708 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $412/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $58/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,981 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 195.4% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 39.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,955 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $88.11 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $88-89.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $89.00 (1.9σ) | $110 | $-20,589 | +$10,336 | +$105 |
| +2.5% | $91.22 (2.1σ) | $-1,002 | $-20,568 | +$10,357 | -$1,007 |
| +5% | $93.45 (2.3σ) | $-2,115 | $-20,547 | +$10,378 | -$2,120 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-18,115 | $-20,243 | +$10,682 | -$17,895 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.03/sh | +$1,014 cycle +$1,139 [+$857…+$1,524] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$20,070 NOT cap gain +$10,855 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$171 cycle +$296 [-$155…+$718] · 61% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$16,547 NOT cap gain +$14,378 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$67 cycle +$192 [-$290…+$610] · 55% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$16,396 NOT cap gain +$14,529 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$93 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$51 cycle +$176 [-$331…+$491] · 51% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$18,705 NOT cap gain +$12,220 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$98 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.13/sh | -$64 cycle +$61 [-$460…+$471] · 47% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$16,017 NOT cap gain +$14,908 |
| budget: banked $125 debit $64 (51% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$61 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,497/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $469/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -85% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $115/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,466 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 200.2% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 40.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,957 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $87.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $87-88.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $88.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $88.00 (1.8σ) | $125 | $-21,084 | +$9,841 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $90.20 (2.0σ) | $-975 | $-21,063 | +$9,862 | -$980 |
| +5% | $92.40 (2.2σ) | $-2,075 | $-21,042 | +$9,883 | -$2,080 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-18,600 | $-20,728 | +$10,197 | -$18,380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.04/sh | +$1,019 cycle +$1,189 [+$904…+$1,386] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$20,529 NOT cap gain +$10,396 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$96 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$177 cycle +$347 [-$69…+$555] · 68% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$17,005 NOT cap gain +$13,920 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$96 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$73 cycle +$243 [-$184…+$445] · 59% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$16,854 NOT cap gain +$14,071 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$57 cycle +$227 [-$207…+$349] · 55% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$19,163 NOT cap gain +$11,762 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$98 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.27/sh | -$136 cycle +$34 [-$425…+$217] · 39% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$16,044 NOT cap gain +$14,881 |
| budget: banked $170 debit $136 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,335/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $638/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -80% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $284/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,921 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 204.6% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 41.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $86.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $86-87.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $87.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $87.00 (1.7σ) | $170 | $-21,548 | +$9,377 | +$165 |
| +2.5% | $89.17 (1.9σ) | $-917 | $-21,528 | +$9,397 | -$922 |
| +5% | $91.35 (2.1σ) | $-2,005 | $-21,507 | +$9,418 | -$2,010 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-19,055 | $-21,183 | +$9,742 | -$18,835 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,024 cycle +$1,209 [+$834…+$1,326] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$21,019 NOT cap gain +$9,906 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$182 cycle +$367 [-$187…+$506] · 62% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$17,494 NOT cap gain +$13,431 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$79 cycle +$264 [-$311…+$396] · 53% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$17,343 NOT cap gain +$13,582 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$91 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$64 cycle +$249 [-$341…+$286] · 50% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$19,651 NOT cap gain +$11,274 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.26/sh | -$130 cycle +$55 [-$556…+$146] · 36% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$16,532 NOT cap gain +$14,393 |
| budget: banked $185 debit $130 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,305/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $694/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $340/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,406 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 209.3% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 42.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,957 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $85.14 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $85-86.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $86.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $86.00 (1.6σ) | $185 | $-22,043 | +$8,882 | +$180 |
| +2.5% | $88.15 (1.8σ) | $-890 | $-22,022 | +$8,903 | -$895 |
| +5% | $90.30 (2.0σ) | $-1,965 | $-22,002 | +$8,923 | -$1,970 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-19,540 | $-21,668 | +$9,257 | -$19,320 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.06/sh | +$1,028 cycle +$1,243 [+$834…+$1,331] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$21,495 NOT cap gain +$9,430 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.37/sh | +$187 cycle +$402 [-$161…+$527] · 63% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$17,969 NOT cap gain +$12,956 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$84 cycle +$299 [-$286…+$418] · 53% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$17,817 NOT cap gain +$13,108 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$90 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$70 cycle +$285 [-$296…+$315] · 51% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$20,124 NOT cap gain +$10,801 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$96 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.25/sh | -$124 cycle +$91 [-$539…+$184] · 36% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$17,006 NOT cap gain +$13,919 |
| budget: banked $215 debit $124 (58% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,273/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $806/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -75% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $452/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,876 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 213.9% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 43.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,962 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $84.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-85.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $85.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $85.00 (1.5σ) | $215 | $-22,522 | +$8,403 | +$210 |
| +2.5% | $87.12 (1.7σ) | $-847 | $-22,502 | +$8,423 | -$852 |
| +5% | $89.25 (1.9σ) | $-1,910 | $-22,482 | +$8,443 | -$1,915 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-20,010 | $-22,138 | +$8,787 | -$19,790 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.07/sh | +$1,035 cycle +$1,345 [+$820…+$1,322] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$22,411 NOT cap gain +$8,514 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$92 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.39/sh | +$195 cycle +$505 [-$163…+$515] · 60% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$18,885 NOT cap gain +$12,040 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$92 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$94 cycle +$404 [-$286…+$406] · 50% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$18,732 NOT cap gain +$12,193 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$81 cycle +$391 [-$289…+$323] · 48% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$21,037 NOT cap gain +$9,888 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.23/sh | -$114 cycle +$196 [-$533…+$187] · 37% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$17,920 NOT cap gain +$13,005 |
| budget: banked $310 debit $114 (37% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$196 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,208/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,163/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $809/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,781 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 222.8% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 45.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,972 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $82.17 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $82-83.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $83.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $83.00 (1.3σ) | $310 | $-23,446 | +$7,479 | +$305 |
| +2.5% | $85.07 (1.5σ) | $-727 | $-23,427 | +$7,498 | -$732 |
| +5% | $87.15 (1.7σ) | $-1,765 | $-23,407 | +$7,518 | -$1,770 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-20,915 | $-23,043 | +$7,882 | -$20,695 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.08/sh | +$1,038 cycle +$1,393 [+$826…+$1,261] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$22,873 NOT cap gain +$8,052 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.50/sh | +$251 cycle +$606 [-$120…+$454] · 64% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$19,549 NOT cap gain +$11,376 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$91 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$98 cycle +$453 [-$303…+$290] · 45% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$19,192 NOT cap gain +$11,733 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$86 cycle +$441 [-$288…+$212] · 42% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$21,497 NOT cap gain +$9,428 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.22/sh | -$110 cycle +$245 [-$539…+$61] · 28% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$18,380 NOT cap gain +$12,545 |
| budget: banked $355 debit $110 (31% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$245 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,174/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,331/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -58% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $977/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,236 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 227.2% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 46.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,960 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $81.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $81-82.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $82.00 (1.2σ) | $355 | $-23,911 | +$7,014 | +$350 |
| +2.5% | $84.05 (1.4σ) | $-670 | $-23,891 | +$7,034 | -$675 |
| +5% | $86.10 (1.6σ) | $-1,695 | $-23,872 | +$7,053 | -$1,700 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-21,370 | $-23,498 | +$7,427 | -$21,150 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.08/sh | +$1,041 cycle +$1,461 [+$778…+$1,236] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$23,315 NOT cap gain +$7,610 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.81/sh | +$406 cycle +$826 [+$15…+$595] · 76% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$20,347 NOT cap gain +$10,578 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$101 cycle +$521 [-$356…+$255] · 42% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$19,633 NOT cap gain +$11,292 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$90 cycle +$510 [-$350…+$198] · 40% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$21,937 NOT cap gain +$8,988 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.82/sh | -$411 cycle +$9 [-$1,038…-$290] · 12% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$18,108 NOT cap gain +$12,817 |
| budget: banked $420 debit $411 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,631/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,575/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -50% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 25% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,221/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,671 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 231.5% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 47.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,967 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.19 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-81.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.00 (1.1σ) | $420 | $-24,355 | +$6,570 | +$415 |
| +2.5% | $83.02 (1.3σ) | $-592 | $-24,336 | +$6,589 | -$597 |
| +5% | $85.05 (1.5σ) | $-1,605 | $-24,317 | +$6,608 | -$1,610 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-21,805 | $-23,933 | +$6,992 | -$21,585 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.09/sh | +$1,043 cycle +$1,553 [+$774…+$1,225] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$23,732 NOT cap gain +$7,193 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$408 cycle +$918 [-$6…+$569] · 74% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$20,764 NOT cap gain +$10,161 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$104 cycle +$614 [-$382…+$252] · 43% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$20,050 NOT cap gain +$10,875 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$94 cycle +$604 [-$370…+$205] · 41% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$22,352 NOT cap gain +$8,573 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.91/sh | -$457 cycle +$53 [-$1,125…-$330] · 12% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$18,318 NOT cap gain +$12,607 |
| budget: banked $510 debit $457 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,513/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,912/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -40% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 30% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,558/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,081 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 235.5% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 47.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,957 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-81.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.00 (1.0σ) | $510 | $-24,775 | +$6,150 | +$505 |
| +2.5% | $82.00 (1.2σ) | $-490 | $-24,756 | +$6,169 | -$495 |
| +5% | $84.00 (1.4σ) | $-1,490 | $-24,737 | +$6,188 | -$1,495 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-22,215 | $-24,343 | +$6,582 | -$21,995 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.09/sh | +$1,046 cycle +$1,731 [+$762…+$1,151] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$24,573 NOT cap gain +$6,352 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$411 cycle +$1,096 [-$21…+$491] · 73% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$21,606 NOT cap gain +$9,319 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$108 cycle +$793 [-$388…+$149] · 35% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$20,889 NOT cap gain +$10,036 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$4 cycle +$689 [-$486…+$3] · 25% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$23,032 NOT cap gain +$7,893 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.19/sh | -$597 cycle +$88 [-$1,308…-$614] · 6% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$18,538 NOT cap gain +$12,387 |
| budget: banked $685 debit $597 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,198/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,569/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -19% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 40% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,215/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,906 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 243.6% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 49.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,977 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-79.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $685 | $-25,619 | +$5,306 | +$680 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.0σ) | $-290 | $-25,600 | +$5,325 | -$295 |
| +5% | $81.90 (1.2σ) | $-1,265 | $-25,582 | +$5,343 | -$1,270 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-23,040 | $-25,168 | +$5,757 | -$22,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.09/sh | +$1,047 cycle +$1,832 [+$736…+$1,121] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$24,981 NOT cap gain +$5,944 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$411 cycle +$1,196 [-$61…+$446] · 69% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$22,015 NOT cap gain +$8,910 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$110 cycle +$895 [-$422…+$107] · 32% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$21,297 NOT cap gain +$9,628 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$8 cycle +$793 [-$504…-$25] · 23% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$23,437 NOT cap gain +$7,488 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.37/sh | -$685 cycle +$100 [-$1,455…-$753] · 3% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$18,526 NOT cap gain +$12,399 |
| budget: banked $785 debit $685 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$100 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,010/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,944/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | -7% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 46% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,590/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,306 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 247.5% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 50.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,977 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-78.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $785 | $-26,028 | +$4,897 | +$780 |
| +2.5% | $78.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-177 | $-26,010 | +$4,915 | -$182 |
| +5% | $80.85 (1.1σ) | $-1,140 | $-25,992 | +$4,933 | -$1,145 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-23,440 | $-25,568 | +$5,357 | -$23,220 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.10/sh | +$1,048 cycle +$2,088 [+$712…+$1,030] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$25,744 NOT cap gain +$5,181 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$410 cycle +$1,450 [-$100…+$348] · 65% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$22,780 NOT cap gain +$8,145 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$111 cycle +$1,151 [-$464…+$20] · 26% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$22,060 NOT cap gain +$8,865 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$14 cycle +$1,054 [-$531…-$92] · 18% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$24,195 NOT cap gain +$6,730 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.78/sh | -$892 cycle +$148 [-$1,775…-$1,065] | 87% surv 85% | -$18,224 NOT cap gain +$12,701 |
| budget: banked $1,040 debit $892 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$148 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,583/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | +23% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 61% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,546/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,051 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 254.8% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 51.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-30,987 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $74.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $74-77.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $75.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,040 | $-26,792 | +$4,133 | +$1,035 |
| +2.5% | $76.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $102 | $-26,775 | +$4,150 | +$98 |
| +5% | $78.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-835 | $-26,757 | +$4,168 | -$840 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-24,185 | $-26,313 | +$4,612 | -$23,965 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.10/sh | +$839 cycle +$1,803 [+$569…+$790] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$26,538 NOT cap gain +$4,387 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$327 cycle +$1,291 [-$81…+$230] · 63% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$23,447 NOT cap gain +$7,478 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$89 cycle +$1,053 [-$375…-$28] · 22% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$22,667 NOT cap gain +$8,258 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$13 cycle +$977 [-$425…-$101] · 16% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$24,780 NOT cap gain +$6,145 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.13/sh | -$852 cycle +$112 [-$1,616…-$1,058] | 89% surv 88% | -$17,494 NOT cap gain +$13,431 |
| budget: banked $964 debit $852 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$112 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,003/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,615/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,263/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,108 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 206.4% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 42.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-24,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $73.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-76.53 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.53 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $74.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $964 | $-27,377 | +$3,548 | +$960 |
| +2.5% | $75.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $224 | $-27,174 | +$3,751 | +$220 |
| +5% | $77.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-516 | $-26,972 | +$3,953 | -$520 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-19,616 | $-21,788 | +$9,137 | -$19,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.10/sh | +$839 cycle +$1,859 [+$561…+$764] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$26,737 NOT cap gain +$4,188 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$327 cycle +$1,347 [-$99…+$205] · 62% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$23,647 NOT cap gain +$7,278 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$89 cycle +$1,109 [-$385…-$50] · 21% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$22,865 NOT cap gain +$8,060 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$14 cycle +$1,034 [-$440…-$118] · 14% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$24,978 NOT cap gain +$5,947 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.43/sh | -$970 cycle +$50 [-$1,807…-$1,213] | 91% surv 90% | -$16,537 NOT cap gain +$14,388 |
| budget: banked $1,020 debit $970 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $790/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | +20% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 60% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,473/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,252 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 207.8% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 42.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-24,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-76.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,020 | $-27,576 | +$3,349 | +$1,016 |
| +2.5% | $75.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $285 | $-27,374 | +$3,551 | +$281 |
| +5% | $77.17 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-450 | $-27,173 | +$3,752 | -$454 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-19,760 | $-21,932 | +$8,993 | -$19,584 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$73 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.10/sh | +$838 cycle +$1,930 [+$544…+$764] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$26,920 NOT cap gain +$4,005 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.21/sh | +$482 cycle +$1,574 [+$74…+$373] · 82% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$24,183 NOT cap gain +$6,742 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$89 cycle +$1,181 [-$416…-$52] · 20% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$23,048 NOT cap gain +$7,877 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$15 cycle +$1,107 [-$459…-$126] · 14% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$25,160 NOT cap gain +$5,765 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.41/sh | -$966 cycle +$126 [-$1,836…-$1,219] | 91% surv 90% | -$16,715 NOT cap gain +$14,210 |
| budget: banked $1,092 debit $966 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$126 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $781/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,095/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | +29% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 64% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,743/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,380 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 209.1% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 42.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-24,804 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-75.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,092 | $-27,758 | +$3,167 | +$1,088 |
| +2.5% | $74.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $362 | $-27,559 | +$3,366 | +$358 |
| +5% | $76.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-368 | $-27,359 | +$3,566 | -$372 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-19,888 | $-22,060 | +$8,865 | -$19,712 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.10/sh | +$629 cycle +$1,499 [+$405…+$559] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$27,606 NOT cap gain +$3,319 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.20/sh | +$361 cycle +$1,231 [+$50…+$259] · 82% credit | 77% surv 68% | -$24,781 NOT cap gain +$6,144 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$66 cycle +$936 [-$317…-$63] · 17% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$23,547 NOT cap gain +$7,378 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$12 cycle +$882 [-$348…-$101] · 12% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$25,639 NOT cap gain +$5,286 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$96 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.40/sh | -$721 cycle +$149 [-$1,388…-$929] | 91% surv 90% | -$16,946 NOT cap gain +$13,979 |
| budget: banked $870 debit $721 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$149 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $579/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,262/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,912/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,134 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 157.8% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 32.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-18,600 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $71.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-75.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $72.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $870 | $-28,234 | +$2,691 | +$867 |
| +2.5% | $74.31 (≤1σ, normal week) | $326 | $-27,854 | +$3,071 | +$323 |
| +5% | $76.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-218 | $-27,475 | +$3,450 | -$220 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-15,015 | $-17,231 | +$13,694 | -$14,883 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.09/sh | +$628 cycle +$1,528 [+$400…+$549] · 99% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$27,831 NOT cap gain +$3,094 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$78 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.20/sh | +$360 cycle +$1,260 [+$43…+$242] · 81% credit | 77% surv 68% | -$25,006 NOT cap gain +$5,919 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$66 cycle +$966 [-$322…-$72] · 16% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$23,772 NOT cap gain +$7,153 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$13 cycle +$913 [-$354…-$113] · 11% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$25,863 NOT cap gain +$5,062 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$96 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.39/sh | -$717 cycle +$183 [-$1,391…-$950] | 91% surv 90% | -$17,167 NOT cap gain +$13,758 |
| budget: banked $900 debit $717 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$183 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $573/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,175/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($6,350/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,025/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,254 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 159.0% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 32.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-18,600 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $71.28 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $71-75.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $72.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $900 | $-28,459 | +$2,466 | +$897 |
| +2.5% | $73.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $360 | $-28,082 | +$2,843 | +$357 |
| +5% | $75.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-180 | $-27,705 | +$3,220 | -$183 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.3σ) | $-15,135 | $-17,351 | +$13,574 | -$15,003 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$70 cycle +$230 [-$421…+$448] · 47% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$17,728 NOT cap gain +$7,852 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.12/sh | -$1,115 cycle -$955 [-$1,795…-$792] · 3% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$19,376 NOT cap gain +$6,204 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | -40% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 30% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $270/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,857 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 230.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 35.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.4 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.37 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.37 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.00 (1.4σ) | $160 | $-18,261 | +$7,319 | +$150 |
| +2.5% | $43.05 (1.6σ) | $-890 | $-18,139 | +$7,441 | -$900 |
| +5% | $44.10 (1.9σ) | $-1,940 | $-18,017 | +$7,563 | -$1,950 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-13,990 | $-16,619 | +$8,961 | -$6,850 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$67 cycle +$251 [-$341…+$374] · 47% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$18,262 NOT cap gain +$7,318 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.16/sh | -$125 cycle +$59 [-$569…+$158] · 33% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$17,897 NOT cap gain +$7,683 |
| budget: banked $184 debit $125 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $2,750/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.09/sh | -$875 cycle -$691 [-$1,434…-$646] · 1% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$19,668 NOT cap gain +$5,912 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $690/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $364/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,830 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 189.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 29.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.9 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-20,568 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.86 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.86 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.50 (1.3σ) | $184 | $-18,793 | +$6,787 | +$176 |
| +2.5% | $42.54 (1.5σ) | $-646 | $-18,465 | +$7,115 | -$654 |
| +5% | $43.58 (1.8σ) | $-1,476 | $-18,137 | +$7,443 | -$1,484 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-11,536 | $-15,593 | +$9,987 | -$5,824 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$98 cycle +$388 [-$457…+$433] · 47% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$18,685 NOT cap gain +$6,895 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.14/sh | -$142 cycle +$148 [-$727…+$174] · 34% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$18,367 NOT cap gain +$7,213 |
| budget: banked $290 debit $142 (49% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$148 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,418/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.07/sh | -$1,073 cycle -$783 [-$1,823…-$803] · 2% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$20,320 NOT cap gain +$5,260 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,087/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $757/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,727 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 242.8% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 37.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,795 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.2σ) | $290 | $-19,247 | +$6,333 | +$280 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.4σ) | $-735 | $-19,128 | +$6,452 | -$745 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.6σ) | $-1,760 | $-19,009 | +$6,571 | -$1,770 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-14,860 | $-17,489 | +$8,091 | -$7,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$121 cycle +$681 [-$462…+$114] · 32% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$20,623 NOT cap gain +$4,957 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.55/sh | -$443 cycle +$117 [-$1,111…-$483] · 8% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$18,955 NOT cap gain +$6,625 |
| budget: banked $560 debit $443 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $2,041/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.99/sh | -$793 cycle -$233 [-$1,556…-$856] · 2% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$22,000 NOT cap gain +$3,580 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,774/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,454 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 211.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 32.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.7 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-20,544 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $560 | $-21,207 | +$4,373 | +$552 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-220 | $-20,899 | +$4,681 | -$228 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.2σ) | $-1,000 | $-20,591 | +$4,989 | -$1,008 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-13,160 | $-17,217 | +$8,363 | -$7,448 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$39 cycle +$109 [-$410…+$508] · 54% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$16,733 NOT cap gain +$8,847 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.16/sh | -$1,158 cycle -$1,088 [-$1,832…-$738] · 3% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$18,393 NOT cap gain +$7,187 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $262/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | -74% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-68/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,947 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 218.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 33.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.9 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,795 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.00 (1.6σ) | $70 | $-17,235 | +$8,345 | +$60 |
| +2.5% | $44.07 (1.9σ) | $-1,005 | $-17,110 | +$8,470 | -$1,015 |
| +5% | $45.15 (2.1σ) | $-2,080 | $-16,985 | +$8,595 | -$2,090 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-13,080 | $-15,709 | +$9,871 | -$5,940 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$54 cycle +$164 [-$387…+$516] · 51% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$17,235 NOT cap gain +$8,345 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.14/sh | -$1,137 cycle -$1,027 [-$1,730…-$745] · 3% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$18,890 NOT cap gain +$6,690 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $412/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $82/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,407 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 224.8% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 34.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.2 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.82 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.82 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.50 (1.5σ) | $110 | $-17,753 | +$7,827 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $43.56 (1.7σ) | $-952 | $-17,630 | +$7,950 | -$962 |
| +5% | $44.62 (2.0σ) | $-2,015 | $-17,506 | +$8,074 | -$2,025 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-13,540 | $-16,169 | +$9,411 | -$6,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$90 cycle +$370 [-$422…+$194] · 38% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$19,260 NOT cap gain +$6,320 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$254 cycle +$26 [-$833…-$180] · 18% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$18,488 NOT cap gain +$7,092 |
| budget: banked $280 debit $254 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $2,464/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.05/sh | -$842 cycle -$562 [-$1,518…-$807] · 2% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$20,655 NOT cap gain +$4,925 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $724/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,534 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 199.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 30.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.2 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-20,640 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-41.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.50 (1.1σ) | $280 | $-19,813 | +$5,767 | +$272 |
| +2.5% | $41.51 (1.3σ) | $-530 | $-19,493 | +$6,087 | -$538 |
| +5% | $42.52 (1.5σ) | $-1,340 | $-19,173 | +$6,407 | -$1,348 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-12,240 | $-16,297 | +$9,283 | -$6,528 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$126 cycle +$386 [-$573…+$263] · 38% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$19,804 NOT cap gain +$5,776 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.11/sh | -$113 cycle +$147 [-$862…-$2] · 25% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$19,485 NOT cap gain +$6,095 |
| budget: banked $260 debit $113 (44% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$147 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,376/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.03/sh | -$1,032 cycle -$772 [-$1,981…-$988] · 1% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$21,425 NOT cap gain +$4,155 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $975/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | -3% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 49% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $645/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,757 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 256.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 39.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $260 | $-20,393 | +$5,187 | +$250 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.2σ) | $-740 | $-20,277 | +$5,303 | -$750 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.4σ) | $-1,740 | $-20,161 | +$5,419 | -$1,750 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-15,890 | $-18,519 | +$7,061 | -$8,750 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$83 cycle +$377 [-$319…+$155] · 37% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$20,367 NOT cap gain +$5,213 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.41/sh | -$247 cycle +$47 [-$713…-$197] · 14% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$19,023 NOT cap gain +$6,557 |
| budget: banked $294 debit $247 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$47 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,700/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.01/sh | -$607 cycle -$313 [-$1,142…-$573] · 1% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$21,520 NOT cap gain +$4,060 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,102/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $780/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,416 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 156.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 24.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.7 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-15,489 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-40.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $294 | $-20,913 | +$4,667 | +$288 |
| +2.5% | $40.49 (1.1σ) | $-298 | $-20,403 | +$5,177 | -$304 |
| +5% | $41.48 (1.3σ) | $-891 | $-19,894 | +$5,686 | -$897 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-9,696 | $-15,181 | +$10,399 | -$5,412 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$82 cycle +$387 [-$285…+$65] · 30% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$21,472 NOT cap gain +$4,108 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.54/sh | -$270 cycle +$35 [-$688…-$312] · 7% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$19,592 NOT cap gain +$5,988 |
| budget: banked $305 debit $270 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$35 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,265/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.97/sh | -$486 cycle -$181 [-$965…-$540] · 1% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$22,502 NOT cap gain +$3,078 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,144/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $824/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,954 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 136.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 21.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-12,982 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $305 | $-22,017 | +$3,563 | +$300 |
| +2.5% | $39.46 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-176 | $-21,424 | +$4,156 | -$181 |
| +5% | $40.43 (1.1σ) | $-658 | $-20,831 | +$4,749 | -$663 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-8,520 | $-14,719 | +$10,861 | -$4,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$70 cycle +$370 [-$255…+$22] · 28% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$22,046 NOT cap gain +$3,534 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.72/sh | -$287 cycle +$13 [-$677…-$367] · 4% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$19,613 NOT cap gain +$5,967 |
| budget: banked $300 debit $287 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $876/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.95/sh | -$381 cycle -$81 [-$801…-$466] · 1% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$22,959 NOT cap gain +$2,621 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +12% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $807/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,107 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 111.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 17.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-10,332 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $300 | $-22,579 | +$3,001 | +$296 |
| +2.5% | $38.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-80 | $-21,899 | +$3,681 | -$84 |
| +5% | $39.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-460 | $-21,218 | +$4,362 | -$464 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-6,960 | $-13,873 | +$11,707 | -$4,104 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$56 cycle +$338 [-$184…-$9] · 23% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$22,635 NOT cap gain +$2,945 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.93/sh | -$280 cycle +$2 [-$586…-$371] · 0% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$23,433 NOT cap gain +$2,147 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.93/sh | -$279 cycle +$3 [-$575…-$370] · 0% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$18,505 NOT cap gain +$7,075 |
| budget: banked $282 debit $279 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $538/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,058/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $742/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,173 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 84.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 13.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-7,768 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.76 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.76 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $282 | $-23,154 | +$2,426 | +$279 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1 | $-22,389 | +$3,191 | -$2 |
| +5% | $39.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-280 | $-21,624 | +$3,956 | -$284 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-5,313 | $-12,940 | +$12,640 | -$3,171 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$59 cycle +$365 [-$208…-$38] · 18% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$23,166 NOT cap gain +$2,414 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.91/sh | -$274 cycle +$32 [-$617…-$394] · 1% credit | 60% surv 53% | -$23,962 NOT cap gain +$1,618 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.91/sh | -$274 cycle +$32 [-$608…-$393] · 0% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$19,035 NOT cap gain +$6,545 |
| budget: banked $306 debit $274 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $532/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,148/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $832/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,299 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 86.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 13.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-7,806 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $306 | $-23,688 | +$1,892 | +$303 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $29 | $-22,933 | +$2,647 | +$26 |
| +5% | $38.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-249 | $-22,178 | +$3,402 | -$252 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-5,439 | $-13,066 | +$12,514 | -$3,297 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$62 cycle +$425 [-$234…-$60] · 15% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$23,663 NOT cap gain +$1,917 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.89/sh | -$268 cycle +$95 [-$650…-$420] · 1% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$24,457 NOT cap gain +$1,123 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.20/sh | -$359 cycle +$4 [-$765…-$513] | 82% surv 80% | -$18,504 NOT cap gain +$7,076 |
| budget: banked $363 debit $359 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $378/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,361/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +35% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 68% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,045/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,392 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 87.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 13.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-7,785 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-38.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $363 | $-24,189 | +$1,391 | +$360 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $89 | $-23,444 | +$2,136 | +$86 |
| +5% | $38.33 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-185 | $-22,700 | +$2,880 | -$188 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-5,532 | $-13,159 | +$12,421 | -$3,390 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$44 cycle +$326 [-$168…-$50] · 11% credit | 68% surv 56% | -$24,320 NOT cap gain +$1,260 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.87/sh | -$175 cycle +$107 [-$446…-$287] · 0% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$25,002 NOT cap gain +$578 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.41/sh | -$282 cycle +$0 [-$588…-$403] | 87% surv 86% | -$16,833 NOT cap gain +$8,747 |
| budget: banked $282 debit $282 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$0 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $172/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,058/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $744/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,321 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 59.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 9.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-5,206 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-37.86 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.86 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $282 | $-24,827 | +$753 | +$280 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $102 | $-24,002 | +$1,578 | +$100 |
| +5% | $37.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-78 | $-23,178 | +$2,402 | -$80 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-3,748 | $-12,089 | +$13,491 | -$2,320 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.86/sh | -$171 cycle +$137 | 61% surv 53% | -$25,435 NOT cap gain +$145 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$39 cycle +$347 | 68% surv 57% | -$24,762 NOT cap gain +$818 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.52/sh | -$304 cycle +$4 | 89% surv 89% | -$16,177 NOT cap gain +$9,403 |
| budget: banked $308 debit $304 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $125/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,155/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +15% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $841/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,395 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 60.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 9.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-5,237 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $308 | $-25,264 | +$316 | +$306 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $131 | $-24,546 | +$1,034 | +$128 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-47 | $-23,733 | +$1,847 | -$49 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-3,822 | $-12,163 | +$13,417 | -$2,394 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.84/sh | -$167 cycle +$165 | 61% surv 53% | -$25,407 NOT cap gain +$173 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$6 cycle +$338 | 69% surv 60% | -$24,771 NOT cap gain +$809 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.54/sh | -$308 cycle +$24 | 90% surv 90% | -$16,157 NOT cap gain +$9,423 |
| budget: banked $332 debit $308 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $110/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,245/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,005/mo) | +24% |
| vs normal income ($2,010/mo) | 62% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $931/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,471 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 61.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 9.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-5,232 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $332 | $-25,240 | +$340 | +$330 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $157 | $-25,091 | +$489 | +$155 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-18 | $-24,290 | +$1,290 | -$20 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.5σ) | $-3,898 | $-12,239 | +$13,341 | -$2,470 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$293 cycle +$918 [-$2,476…+$5,168] · 58% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$96,250 NOT cap gain +$55,437 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$482 cycle +$1,107 [-$3,039…+$5,810] · 55% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$91,354 NOT cap gain +$60,334 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$260 cycle +$365 [-$3,731…+$4,989] · 51% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$87,114 NOT cap gain +$64,574 |
| budget: banked $625 debit $260 (42% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$365 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $38,536/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,344/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,344/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$113,355 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 410.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 40.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-154,375 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (1.7σ) | $625 | $-96,543 | +$55,145 | +$500 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (1.9σ) | $-7,187 | $-98,129 | +$53,559 | -$7,312 |
| +5% | $26.25 (2.1σ) | $-15,000 | $-99,715 | +$51,973 | -$15,125 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-183,250 | $-133,869 | +$17,818 | -$112,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (102 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$23 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$153 cycle +$3,519 [-$3,227…+$1,691] · 38% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$113,550 NOT cap gain +$38,137 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$108 cycle +$3,474 [-$4,329…+$1,600] · 36% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$108,889 NOT cap gain +$42,799 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$24 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.06/sh | -$614 cycle +$2,752 [-$5,045…+$844] · 31% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$104,629 NOT cap gain +$47,059 |
| budget: banked $3,366 debit $614 (18% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,752 cash · rolled 102 ct earn ≈ $27,136/mo while parked; 23 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,622/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,668/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$110,042 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 398.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 39.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (102 ct) | $-125,766 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $22.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $23-23.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $23.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $23.00 (1.1σ) | $3,366 | $-113,704 | +$37,984 | +$3,264 |
| +2.5% | $23.57 (1.3σ) | $-2,499 | $-113,840 | +$37,847 | -$2,601 |
| +5% | $24.15 (1.4σ) | $-8,364 | $-113,977 | +$37,711 | -$8,466 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-167,076 | $-130,805 | +$20,882 | -$108,936 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (121 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$159 cycle +$5,241 [-$4,282…+$1,291] · 33% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$116,829 NOT cap gain +$34,858 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$47 cycle +$5,129 [-$5,664…+$1,062] · 30% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$112,233 NOT cap gain +$39,454 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$24 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.35/sh | -$4,250 cycle +$832 [-$10,737…-$3,617] · 11% credit | 71% surv 65% | -$106,568 NOT cap gain +$45,120 |
| budget: banked $5,082 debit $4,250 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$832 cash · rolled 121 ct earn ≈ $25,278/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $19,058/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,066/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$135,501 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 490.5% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 48.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (121 ct) | $-149,253 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $22.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $22-23.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $23.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $22.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,082 | $-116,988 | +$34,700 | +$4,961 |
| +2.5% | $23.06 (1.1σ) | $-1,724 | $-118,190 | +$33,497 | -$1,845 |
| +5% | $23.62 (1.3σ) | $-8,530 | $-119,393 | +$32,295 | -$8,652 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-203,159 | $-156,058 | -$4,371 | -$134,189 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (112 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$264 cycle +$10,456 [-$4,688…-$946] · 20% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$126,822 NOT cap gain +$24,865 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$87 cycle +$10,279 [-$4,920…-$1,132] · 18% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$126,726 NOT cap gain +$24,962 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$25 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.90/sh | -$10,130 cycle +$62 [-$18,913…-$12,724] | 83% surv 81% | -$92,385 NOT cap gain +$59,302 |
| budget: banked $10,192 debit $10,130 (99% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 112 ct earn ≈ $10,250/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $38,220/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $38,246/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$136,734 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 495.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 49.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (112 ct) | $-137,312 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $20.79 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $21-22.04 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $22.04 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $21.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $10,192 | $-126,813 | +$24,875 | +$10,080 |
| +2.5% | $21.52 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,312 | $-127,462 | +$24,225 | +$4,200 |
| +5% | $22.05 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,568 | $-128,112 | +$23,575 | -$1,680 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-199,360 | $-157,389 | -$5,702 | -$135,520 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$265 cycle +$1,765 [-$2,484…+$4,262] · 52% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$100,384 NOT cap gain +$51,304 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$392 cycle +$1,892 [-$3,586…+$4,690] · 50% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$95,550 NOT cap gain +$56,138 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$25 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$387 cycle +$1,113 [-$4,371…+$3,768] · 45% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$91,347 NOT cap gain +$60,340 |
| budget: banked $1,500 debit $387 (26% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,113 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $37,188/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | -70% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,625/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$118,730 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 429.8% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 42.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-155,500 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.93 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.93 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.50 (1.5σ) | $1,500 | $-100,649 | +$51,039 | +$1,375 |
| +2.5% | $25.11 (1.7σ) | $-6,156 | $-102,203 | +$49,484 | -$6,281 |
| +5% | $25.73 (1.9σ) | $-13,813 | $-103,757 | +$47,930 | -$13,938 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-188,625 | $-139,244 | +$12,443 | -$117,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$213 cycle +$2,338 [-$3,741…+$3,190] · 45% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$109,774 NOT cap gain +$41,914 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$24 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$217 cycle +$2,342 [-$4,960…+$3,195] · 43% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$105,062 NOT cap gain +$46,625 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$24 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.05/sh | -$633 cycle +$1,492 [-$5,799…+$2,208] · 37% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$100,931 NOT cap gain +$50,757 |
| budget: banked $2,125 debit $633 (30% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,492 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $34,547/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,969/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | -58% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,969/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$130,605 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 472.8% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 47.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-156,000 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $23-24.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $23.50 (1.2σ) | $2,125 | $-109,986 | +$41,701 | +$2,000 |
| +2.5% | $24.09 (1.4σ) | $-5,219 | $-111,477 | +$40,210 | -$5,344 |
| +5% | $24.68 (1.6σ) | $-12,563 | $-112,968 | +$38,719 | -$12,688 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-200,500 | $-151,119 | +$568 | -$129,250 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (81 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$222 cycle +$5,325 [-$2,866…+$493] · 29% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$121,960 NOT cap gain +$29,727 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$91 cycle +$5,194 [-$3,029…+$333] · 28% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$121,817 NOT cap gain +$29,870 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$24 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.63/sh | -$5,087 cycle +$16 [-$9,214…-$5,278] · 2% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$107,344 NOT cap gain +$44,343 |
| budget: banked $5,103 debit $5,087 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$16 cash · rolled 81 ct earn ≈ $20,446/mo while parked; 44 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $19,136/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,224/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$93,056 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 336.9% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 33.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (81 ct) | $-100,318 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $21.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $22-22.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $22.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $22.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,103 | $-121,908 | +$29,779 | +$5,022 |
| +2.5% | $22.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $648 | $-120,884 | +$30,804 | +$567 |
| +5% | $23.10 (1.1σ) | $-3,807 | $-119,859 | +$31,828 | -$3,888 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-138,348 | $-114,047 | +$37,640 | -$92,178 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (82 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$209 cycle +$5,293 [-$3,120…-$8] · 25% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$126,975 NOT cap gain +$24,713 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$78 cycle +$5,162 [-$3,273…-$155] · 23% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$126,832 NOT cap gain +$24,856 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$24 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.51/sh | -$4,155 cycle +$929 [-$9,134…-$5,084] · 5% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$106,432 NOT cap gain +$45,255 |
| budget: banked $5,084 debit $4,155 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$929 cash · rolled 82 ct earn ≈ $13,619/mo while parked; 43 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $19,065/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,151/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$98,387 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 356.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 35.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (82 ct) | $-101,065 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $21.29 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $21-22.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $22.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $21.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,084 | $-126,909 | +$24,778 | +$5,002 |
| +2.5% | $22.04 (≤1σ, normal week) | $677 | $-125,962 | +$25,725 | +$595 |
| +5% | $22.57 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,731 | $-125,015 | +$26,673 | -$3,813 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-144,238 | $-119,367 | +$32,320 | -$97,498 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (64 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$140 cycle +$5,260 [-$2,898…-$999] · 15% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$136,952 NOT cap gain +$14,735 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$39 cycle +$5,159 [-$3,025…-$1,127] · 15% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$136,779 NOT cap gain +$14,909 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$23 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.76/sh | -$4,866 cycle +$254 [-$9,135…-$6,488] | 80% surv 76% | -$117,052 NOT cap gain +$34,636 |
| budget: banked $5,120 debit $4,866 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$254 cash · rolled 64 ct earn ≈ $11,245/mo while parked; 61 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $19,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,322/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$82,038 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 297.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 29.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (64 ct) | $-80,064 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $20.29 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $20-21.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $21.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $20.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,120 | $-136,818 | +$14,870 | +$5,056 |
| +2.5% | $21.01 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,840 | $-134,992 | +$16,695 | +$1,776 |
| +5% | $21.53 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,440 | $-133,166 | +$18,521 | -$1,504 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-117,824 | $-103,213 | +$48,474 | -$81,344 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (54 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$108 cycle +$5,238 [-$2,712…-$1,079] · 10% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$141,945 NOT cap gain +$9,743 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$25 cycle +$5,155 [-$2,820…-$1,167] · 9% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$141,755 NOT cap gain +$9,933 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$24 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.89/sh | -$4,793 cycle +$337 [-$9,895…-$6,744] | 84% surv 82% | -$102,015 NOT cap gain +$49,673 |
| budget: banked $5,130 debit $4,793 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$337 cash · rolled 54 ct earn ≈ $4,219/mo while parked; 71 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $19,238/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,380/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$71,110 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 257.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 25.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (54 ct) | $-67,203 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $19.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $20-21.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $21.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $20.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,130 | $-141,779 | +$9,908 | +$5,076 |
| +2.5% | $20.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,430 | $-139,498 | +$12,190 | +$2,376 |
| +5% | $21.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-270 | $-137,217 | +$14,471 | -$324 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-101,304 | $-92,393 | +$59,294 | -$70,524 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (44 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$13 cycle +$5,117 | 67% surv 54% | -$146,489 NOT cap gain +$5,198 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$32 cycle +$5,136 | 67% surv 54% | -$146,471 NOT cap gain +$5,217 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$24 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.12/sh | -$4,913 cycle +$191 | 91% surv 90% | -$101,877 NOT cap gain +$49,810 |
| budget: banked $5,104 debit $4,913 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$191 cash · rolled 44 ct earn ≈ $2,304/mo while parked; 81 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $19,140/mo |
| vs 50% target ($19,031/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($38,063/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,302/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$59,217 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 214.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 21.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (44 ct) | $-54,956 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $19.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $19-21.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $21.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $19.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,104 | $-146,502 | +$5,185 | +$5,060 |
| +2.5% | $19.99 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,959 | $-144,065 | +$7,623 | +$2,915 |
| +5% | $20.48 (≤1σ, normal week) | $814 | $-141,353 | +$10,334 | +$770 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-83,820 | $-80,609 | +$71,078 | -$58,740 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$110 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$290 cycle +$605 [-$59…+$695] · 71% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$3,469 NOT cap gain +$12,459 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$111 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$138 cycle +$453 [-$243…+$529] · 57% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$3,088 NOT cap gain +$12,840 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$114 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.63/sh | -$313 cycle +$2 [-$778…+$48] · 30% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$1,939 NOT cap gain +$13,988 |
| budget: banked $315 debit $313 (99% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,810/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$104 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.74/sh | -$868 cycle -$553 [-$1,353…-$519] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$7,622 NOT cap gain +$8,305 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,181/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -58% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,133/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,576 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 45.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 14.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,962 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $102.96 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $103-104.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $104.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $104.00 (1.5σ) | $315 | $-6,754 | +$9,173 | +$30 |
| +2.5% | $106.60 (1.8σ) | $-985 | $-6,668 | +$9,259 | -$1,270 |
| +5% | $109.20 (2.0σ) | $-2,285 | $-6,582 | +$9,345 | -$2,570 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-4,685 | $-6,424 | +$9,503 | -$4,970 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$106 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.64/sh | +$319 cycle +$834 [-$38…+$552] · 70% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$5,372 NOT cap gain +$10,556 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$108 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$18 cycle +$533 [-$399…+$224] · 41% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$4,606 NOT cap gain +$11,321 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.00/sh | -$501 cycle +$14 [-$1,048…-$343] · 12% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$2,994 NOT cap gain +$12,933 |
| budget: banked $515 debit $501 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,367/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$100 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.62/sh | -$809 cycle -$294 [-$1,317…-$642] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$9,495 NOT cap gain +$6,433 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,931/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,883/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,376 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 57.8% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 17.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,960 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $99-101.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $101.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $100.00 (1.2σ) | $515 | $-8,686 | +$7,241 | +$230 |
| +2.5% | $102.50 (1.4σ) | $-735 | $-8,604 | +$7,324 | -$1,020 |
| +5% | $105.00 (1.6σ) | $-1,985 | $-8,521 | +$7,406 | -$2,270 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-6,485 | $-8,224 | +$7,703 | -$6,770 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.67/sh | +$337 cycle +$1,087 [-$141…+$422] · 61% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$6,718 NOT cap gain +$9,210 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$38 cycle +$788 [-$504…+$99] · 31% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$5,951 NOT cap gain +$9,977 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$111 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.35/sh | -$676 cycle +$74 [-$1,390…-$674] · 4% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$3,467 NOT cap gain +$12,461 |
| budget: banked $750 debit $676 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,981/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$97 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.53/sh | -$765 cycle -$15 [-$1,413…-$737] · 2% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$10,815 NOT cap gain +$5,112 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,812/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,764/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,641 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 66.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 20.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,962 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $96.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $96-98.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $98.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $97.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $750 | $-10,050 | +$5,877 | +$465 |
| +2.5% | $99.42 (1.1σ) | $-462 | $-9,970 | +$5,957 | -$747 |
| +5% | $101.85 (1.3σ) | $-1,675 | $-9,890 | +$6,038 | -$1,960 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-7,750 | $-9,489 | +$6,438 | -$8,035 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$96 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.92/sh | +$460 cycle +$1,960 [-$123…+$248] · 61% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$9,309 NOT cap gain +$6,619 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$68 cycle +$1,568 [-$602…-$177] · 14% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$8,368 NOT cap gain +$7,559 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$91 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.36/sh | -$682 cycle +$818 [-$1,477…-$965] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$13,180 NOT cap gain +$2,747 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$113 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.40/sh | -$1,200 cycle +$300 [-$2,268…-$1,579] | 91% surv 90% | -$2,174 NOT cap gain +$13,753 |
| budget: banked $1,500 debit $1,200 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$300 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $916/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,577/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,891 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 82.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 25.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,990 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $90.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $90-94.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $91.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,500 | $-12,498 | +$3,429 | +$1,215 |
| +2.5% | $93.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $363 | $-12,423 | +$3,505 | +$78 |
| +5% | $95.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-775 | $-12,348 | +$3,580 | -$1,060 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-10,000 | $-11,739 | +$4,188 | -$10,285 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$120 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$2.26/sh | -$1,128 cycle -$1,088 | 60% surv 52% | +$371 SAFE cap gain +$16,298 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$126 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$114 cycle +$154 | 73% surv 65% | +$4,608 SAFE cap gain +$20,536 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $102/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,937 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $118.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $119-120.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $120.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $120.00 (3.0σ) | $40 | $1,499 | +$17,426 | +$2,755 |
| +2.5% | $123.00 (3.3σ) | $-1,460 | $1,598 | +$17,525 | +$2,755 |
| +5% | $126.00 (3.6σ) | $-2,960 | $1,697 | +$17,624 | +$2,755 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$119 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$2.22/sh | -$1,111 cycle -$1,071 | 60% surv 52% | -$145 NOT cap gain +$15,782 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$125 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$127 cycle +$167 | 73% surv 65% | +$4,089 SAFE cap gain +$20,016 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$126 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.05/sh | -$27 cycle +$13 | 74% surv 67% | +$4,467 SAFE cap gain +$20,395 |
| budget: banked $40 debit $27 (67% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,767/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $102/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,947 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $117.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $118-119.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $119.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $119.00 (2.9σ) | $40 | $966 | +$16,893 | +$2,255 |
| +2.5% | $121.97 (3.2σ) | $-1,447 | $1,064 | +$16,992 | +$2,255 |
| +5% | $124.95 (3.5σ) | $-2,935 | $1,162 | +$17,090 | +$2,255 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$118 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$2.19/sh | -$1,094 cycle -$1,049 | 60% surv 52% | -$656 NOT cap gain +$15,272 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$124 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$141 cycle +$186 | 73% surv 65% | +$3,574 SAFE cap gain +$19,502 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$125 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$13 cycle +$32 | 74% surv 67% | +$3,953 SAFE cap gain +$19,881 |
| budget: banked $45 debit $13 (30% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,757/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $169/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $121/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $116.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $117-118.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $118.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $118.00 (2.8σ) | $45 | $438 | +$16,365 | +$1,760 |
| +2.5% | $120.95 (3.1σ) | $-1,430 | $535 | +$16,463 | +$1,760 |
| +5% | $123.90 (3.4σ) | $-2,905 | $633 | +$16,560 | +$1,760 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$117 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$2.15/sh | -$1,077 cycle -$1,027 | 60% surv 52% | -$1,167 NOT cap gain +$14,761 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$123 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$154 cycle +$204 | 73% surv 65% | +$3,059 SAFE cap gain +$18,987 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$124 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.00/sh | -$0 cycle +$50 | 75% surv 67% | +$3,438 SAFE cap gain +$19,366 |
| budget: banked $50 debit $0 (0% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,747/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $139/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$341 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 2.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 0.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,952 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $115.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $116-117.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $117.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $117.00 (2.7σ) | $50 | $-90 | +$15,837 | +$1,265 |
| +2.5% | $119.92 (3.0σ) | $-1,412 | $6 | +$15,934 | +$1,265 |
| +5% | $122.85 (3.3σ) | $-2,875 | $103 | +$16,031 | +$1,265 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$116 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$2.12/sh | -$1,060 cycle -$995 | 60% surv 52% | -$1,668 NOT cap gain +$14,259 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$123 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$13 cycle +$78 | 75% surv 67% | +$2,933 SAFE cap gain +$18,861 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $244/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $196/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$826 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 5.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 1.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,947 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $114.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $115-116.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $116.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $116.00 (2.6σ) | $65 | $-608 | +$15,319 | +$780 |
| +2.5% | $118.90 (2.9σ) | $-1,385 | $-512 | +$15,415 | +$780 |
| +5% | $121.80 (3.2σ) | $-2,835 | $-417 | +$15,511 | +$780 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$122 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$25 cycle +$110 [-$241…+$548] · 62% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$2,432 SAFE cap gain +$18,360 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$2.09/sh | -$1,043 cycle -$958 [-$1,452…-$586] | 60% surv 52% | -$2,164 NOT cap gain +$13,763 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $319/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $271/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,306 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 9.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 2.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,945 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $113.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $114-115.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $115.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $115.00 (2.5σ) | $85 | $-1,121 | +$14,806 | +$300 |
| +2.5% | $117.87 (2.8σ) | $-1,352 | $-1,026 | +$14,901 | +$300 |
| +5% | $120.75 (3.1σ) | $-2,790 | $-931 | +$14,996 | +$300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$121 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$37 cycle +$122 [-$116…+$758] · 71% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$1,912 SAFE cap gain +$17,839 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$114 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$2.05/sh | -$1,027 cycle -$942 [-$1,278…-$318] | 60% surv 52% | -$2,681 NOT cap gain +$13,247 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $319/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $271/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,806 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 12.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 3.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $112.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $113-114.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $114.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $85 | $-1,654 | +$14,273 | -$200 |
| +2.5% | $116.85 (2.7σ) | $-1,340 | $-1,560 | +$14,368 | -$200 |
| +5% | $119.70 (3.0σ) | $-2,765 | $-1,466 | +$14,462 | -$200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$120 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$49 cycle +$149 [+$19…+$765] · 76% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$1,405 SAFE cap gain +$17,333 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$113 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$2.02/sh | -$1,010 cycle -$910 [-$1,156…-$319] | 60% surv 52% | -$3,182 NOT cap gain +$12,745 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $327/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,291 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 15.8% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 4.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $111.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $112-113.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $113.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $113.00 (2.4σ) | $100 | $-2,172 | +$13,755 | -$185 |
| +2.5% | $115.82 (2.6σ) | $-1,312 | $-2,079 | +$13,849 | -$685 |
| +5% | $118.65 (2.9σ) | $-2,725 | $-1,986 | +$13,942 | -$685 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$119 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$60 cycle +$175 [-$188…+$591] · 62% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$899 SAFE cap gain +$16,826 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$120 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.19/sh | -$93 cycle +$22 [-$369…+$422] · 53% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$1,279 SAFE cap gain +$17,206 |
| budget: banked $115 debit $93 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$22 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,433/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$112 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.99/sh | -$994 cycle -$879 [-$1,332…-$532] | 60% surv 52% | -$3,684 NOT cap gain +$12,243 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $431/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -85% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $383/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,776 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 19.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 5.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $110.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $111-112.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $112.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $112.00 (2.3σ) | $115 | $-2,690 | +$13,237 | -$170 |
| +2.5% | $114.80 (2.5σ) | $-1,285 | $-2,598 | +$13,330 | -$1,170 |
| +5% | $117.60 (2.8σ) | $-2,685 | $-2,505 | +$13,422 | -$1,170 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$118 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$71 cycle +$201 [-$179…+$672] · 61% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$392 SAFE cap gain +$16,319 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$119 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.16/sh | -$82 cycle +$48 [-$385…+$511] · 53% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$772 SAFE cap gain +$16,699 |
| budget: banked $130 debit $82 (63% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,420/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$111 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.96/sh | -$978 cycle -$848 [-$1,366…-$411] | 60% surv 52% | -$4,186 NOT cap gain +$11,742 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $488/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -83% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $439/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,261 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 22.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 6.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,952 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $109.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $110-111.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $111.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $111.00 (2.2σ) | $130 | $-3,208 | +$12,719 | -$155 |
| +2.5% | $113.77 (2.4σ) | $-1,257 | $-3,116 | +$12,811 | -$1,542 |
| +5% | $116.55 (2.7σ) | $-2,645 | $-3,025 | +$12,903 | -$1,655 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$117 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$82 cycle +$232 [-$38…+$673] · 74% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$111 NOT cap gain +$15,817 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$118 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.14/sh | -$71 cycle +$79 [-$216…+$508] · 58% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$270 SAFE cap gain +$16,197 |
| budget: banked $150 debit $71 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$79 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,406/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$110 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.92/sh | -$962 cycle -$812 [-$1,172…-$435] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$4,683 NOT cap gain +$11,245 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -80% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $514/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,741 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 25.8% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 8.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $108.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $109-110.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $110.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $110.00 (2.1σ) | $150 | $-3,721 | +$12,206 | -$135 |
| +2.5% | $112.75 (2.3σ) | $-1,225 | $-3,630 | +$12,297 | -$1,510 |
| +5% | $115.50 (2.6σ) | $-2,600 | $-3,540 | +$12,388 | -$2,135 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$116 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$92 cycle +$262 [+$27…+$738] · 77% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$613 NOT cap gain +$15,314 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$117 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.12/sh | -$60 cycle +$110 [-$155…+$582] · 69% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$233 NOT cap gain +$15,695 |
| budget: banked $170 debit $60 (35% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,391/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$109 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.89/sh | -$946 cycle -$776 [-$1,105…-$333] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$5,180 NOT cap gain +$10,748 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $638/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $589/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,221 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 29.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 9.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $107.91 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $108-109.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $109.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $109.00 (2.0σ) | $170 | $-4,234 | +$11,693 | -$115 |
| +2.5% | $111.72 (2.2σ) | $-1,192 | $-4,144 | +$11,783 | -$1,477 |
| +5% | $114.45 (2.5σ) | $-2,555 | $-4,054 | +$11,873 | -$2,615 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$115 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$102 cycle +$292 [-$231…+$519] · 63% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$1,117 NOT cap gain +$14,811 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$116 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$50 cycle +$140 [-$398…+$343] · 50% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$736 NOT cap gain +$15,192 |
| budget: banked $190 debit $50 (26% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$140 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,376/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$108 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.86/sh | -$930 cycle -$740 [-$1,365…-$543] | 60% surv 52% | -$5,677 NOT cap gain +$10,250 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $712/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -75% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $664/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,701 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 32.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 10.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $106.92 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $107-108.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $108.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $108.00 (1.9σ) | $190 | $-4,747 | +$11,180 | -$95 |
| +2.5% | $110.70 (2.2σ) | $-1,160 | $-4,658 | +$11,270 | -$1,445 |
| +5% | $113.40 (2.4σ) | $-2,510 | $-4,569 | +$11,359 | -$2,795 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-2,810 | $-4,549 | +$11,378 | -$3,095 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$114 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$112 cycle +$327 [-$158…+$514] · 64% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$1,615 NOT cap gain +$14,312 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$116 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.38/sh | -$192 cycle +$23 [-$539…+$202] · 37% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$852 NOT cap gain +$15,075 |
| budget: banked $215 debit $192 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,108/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$107 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.83/sh | -$914 cycle -$699 [-$1,306…-$534] | 60% surv 52% | -$6,170 NOT cap gain +$9,758 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $806/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $758/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,176 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 35.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 11.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,952 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $105.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $106-107.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $107.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $107.00 (1.8σ) | $215 | $-5,255 | +$10,672 | -$70 |
| +2.5% | $109.67 (2.1σ) | $-1,122 | $-5,167 | +$10,761 | -$1,407 |
| +5% | $112.35 (2.3σ) | $-2,460 | $-5,078 | +$10,849 | -$2,745 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-3,285 | $-5,024 | +$10,903 | -$3,570 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$273 cycle +$518 [-$46…+$648] · 71% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$2,490 NOT cap gain +$13,438 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$113 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$121 cycle +$366 [-$243…+$484] · 57% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$2,109 NOT cap gain +$13,819 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$115 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.36/sh | -$182 cycle +$63 [-$624…+$150] · 31% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$1,345 NOT cap gain +$14,582 |
| budget: banked $245 debit $182 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$63 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,092/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$106 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.80/sh | -$899 cycle -$654 [-$1,401…-$591] · 2% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$6,657 NOT cap gain +$9,271 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $919/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -67% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $871/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,646 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 38.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 12.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,952 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $104.94 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $105-106.54 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $106.54 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $106.00 (1.7σ) | $245 | $-5,758 | +$10,169 | -$40 |
| +2.5% | $108.65 (2.0σ) | $-1,080 | $-5,671 | +$10,257 | -$1,365 |
| +5% | $111.30 (2.2σ) | $-2,405 | $-5,583 | +$10,344 | -$2,690 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-3,755 | $-5,494 | +$10,433 | -$4,040 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$130 cycle +$410 [-$209…+$518] · 60% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$2,598 NOT cap gain +$13,329 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$114 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$172 cycle +$108 [-$572…+$205] · 37% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$1,834 NOT cap gain +$14,093 |
| budget: banked $280 debit $172 (62% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$108 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,076/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$105 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.77/sh | -$884 cycle -$604 [-$1,330…-$523] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$7,140 NOT cap gain +$8,788 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,002/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,111 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 42.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 13.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $103.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $104-105.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $105.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $105.00 (1.6σ) | $280 | $-6,256 | +$9,671 | -$5 |
| +2.5% | $107.62 (1.9σ) | $-1,032 | $-6,169 | +$9,758 | -$1,317 |
| +5% | $110.25 (2.1σ) | $-2,345 | $-6,083 | +$9,845 | -$2,630 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-4,220 | $-5,959 | +$9,968 | -$4,505 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$109 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.60/sh | +$298 cycle +$653 [-$86…+$603] · 71% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$3,954 NOT cap gain +$11,974 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$110 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$146 cycle +$501 [-$256…+$436] · 56% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$3,573 NOT cap gain +$12,355 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$113 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.71/sh | -$354 cycle +$1 [-$870…-$109] · 20% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$2,207 NOT cap gain +$13,720 |
| budget: banked $355 debit $354 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,709/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$103 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.71/sh | -$853 cycle -$498 [-$1,378…-$611] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$8,100 NOT cap gain +$7,827 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,331/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -53% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,283/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,036 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 48.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 15.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,955 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $101.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $102-103.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $103.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $103.00 (1.4σ) | $355 | $-7,247 | +$8,680 | +$70 |
| +2.5% | $105.57 (1.7σ) | $-932 | $-7,162 | +$8,765 | -$1,217 |
| +5% | $108.15 (1.9σ) | $-2,220 | $-7,077 | +$8,850 | -$2,505 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-5,145 | $-6,884 | +$9,043 | -$5,430 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$108 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.61/sh | +$305 cycle +$710 [-$82…+$605] · 70% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$4,429 NOT cap gain +$11,498 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$110 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$408 [-$432…+$283] · 40% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$3,665 NOT cap gain +$12,262 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.69/sh | -$346 cycle +$59 [-$866…-$103] · 20% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$2,682 NOT cap gain +$13,246 |
| budget: banked $405 debit $346 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,691/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$102 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.68/sh | -$838 cycle -$433 [-$1,364…-$601] · 2% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$8,568 NOT cap gain +$7,359 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,519/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -46% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,471/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,486 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 51.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 15.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,955 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $100.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $101-102.86 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $102.86 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $102.00 (1.3σ) | $405 | $-7,730 | +$8,197 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $104.55 (1.6σ) | $-870 | $-7,646 | +$8,282 | -$1,155 |
| +5% | $107.10 (1.8σ) | $-2,145 | $-7,562 | +$8,366 | -$2,430 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-5,595 | $-7,334 | +$8,593 | -$5,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.62/sh | +$312 cycle +$772 [-$51…+$632] · 71% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$4,900 NOT cap gain +$11,027 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$109 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$11 cycle +$471 [-$399…+$307] · 45% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$4,136 NOT cap gain +$11,792 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.82/sh | -$410 cycle +$50 [-$888…-$140] · 16% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$2,958 NOT cap gain +$12,970 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $410 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,551/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$101 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.65/sh | -$823 cycle -$363 [-$1,306…-$551] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$9,031 NOT cap gain +$6,896 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,725/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -39% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,677/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,931 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 54.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 16.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,955 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.99 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $100-101.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $101.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $101.00 (1.3σ) | $460 | $-8,208 | +$7,719 | +$175 |
| +2.5% | $103.52 (1.5σ) | $-802 | $-8,125 | +$7,803 | -$1,087 |
| +5% | $106.05 (1.7σ) | $-2,065 | $-8,041 | +$7,886 | -$2,350 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-6,040 | $-7,779 | +$8,148 | -$6,325 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.65/sh | +$325 cycle +$915 [-$95…+$482] · 67% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$5,823 NOT cap gain +$10,104 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$25 cycle +$615 [-$461…+$160] · 36% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$5,057 NOT cap gain +$10,870 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$111 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$493 cycle +$97 [-$1,091…-$391] · 10% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$3,444 NOT cap gain +$12,484 |
| budget: banked $590 debit $493 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,349/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$99 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.59/sh | -$794 cycle -$204 [-$1,373…-$684] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$9,938 NOT cap gain +$5,989 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,212/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -21% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,164/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,801 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 60.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 18.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,957 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $98.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $98-100.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $100.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $99.00 (1.1σ) | $590 | $-9,144 | +$6,783 | +$305 |
| +2.5% | $101.47 (1.3σ) | $-647 | $-9,062 | +$6,865 | -$932 |
| +5% | $103.95 (1.5σ) | $-1,885 | $-8,981 | +$6,947 | -$2,170 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-6,910 | $-8,649 | +$7,278 | -$7,195 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.66/sh | +$331 cycle +$1,001 [-$114…+$449] · 66% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$6,270 NOT cap gain +$9,657 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$106 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$32 cycle +$702 [-$465…+$115] · 33% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$5,504 NOT cap gain +$10,424 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$111 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.17/sh | -$587 cycle +$83 [-$1,226…-$552] · 6% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$3,458 NOT cap gain +$12,469 |
| budget: banked $670 debit $587 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,160/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.56/sh | -$780 cycle -$110 [-$1,374…-$727] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$10,377 NOT cap gain +$5,551 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,513/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | -11% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 45% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,464/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,221 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 63.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 19.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,957 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $97-99.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $99.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $670 | $-9,597 | +$6,330 | +$385 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (1.2σ) | $-555 | $-9,516 | +$6,411 | -$840 |
| +5% | $102.90 (1.4σ) | $-1,780 | $-9,435 | +$6,492 | -$2,065 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-7,330 | $-9,069 | +$6,858 | -$7,615 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.68/sh | +$342 cycle +$1,187 [-$138…+$411] · 61% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$7,150 NOT cap gain +$8,777 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$44 cycle +$889 [-$499…+$84] · 31% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$6,383 NOT cap gain +$9,545 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$111 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.55/sh | -$775 cycle +$70 [-$1,506…-$787] · 1% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$3,470 NOT cap gain +$12,457 |
| budget: banked $845 debit $775 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,784/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$96 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.50/sh | -$751 cycle +$94 [-$1,398…-$741] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$11,239 NOT cap gain +$4,688 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,169/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,121/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,046 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 69.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 21.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,965 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $95.04 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $95-97.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $97.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $96.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $845 | $-10,488 | +$5,439 | +$560 |
| +2.5% | $98.40 (1.0σ) | $-355 | $-10,409 | +$5,519 | -$640 |
| +5% | $100.80 (1.2σ) | $-1,555 | $-10,330 | +$5,598 | -$1,840 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-8,155 | $-9,894 | +$6,033 | -$8,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.89/sh | +$356 cycle +$1,124 [-$25…+$358] · 72% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$7,956 NOT cap gain +$7,972 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$40 cycle +$808 [-$403…+$23] · 26% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$6,940 NOT cap gain +$8,988 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$95 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.47/sh | -$590 cycle +$178 [-$1,116…-$629] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$11,631 NOT cap gain +$4,297 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.89/sh | -$755 cycle +$13 [-$1,397…-$844] | 86% surv 84% | -$2,938 NOT cap gain +$12,990 |
| budget: banked $768 debit $755 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,176/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,880/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,946/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,345 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 57.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 17.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-12,768 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $94.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $94-96.98 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.98 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $95.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $768 | $-11,041 | +$4,886 | +$540 |
| +2.5% | $97.37 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-182 | $-10,725 | +$5,202 | -$410 |
| +5% | $99.75 (1.1σ) | $-1,132 | $-10,409 | +$5,518 | -$1,360 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-6,832 | $-8,514 | +$7,413 | -$7,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.90/sh | +$360 cycle +$1,228 [-$54…+$338] · 70% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$8,385 NOT cap gain +$7,542 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$44 cycle +$912 [-$442…-$0] · 25% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$7,369 NOT cap gain +$8,559 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$94 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$1.45/sh | -$578 cycle +$290 [-$1,155…-$653] · 1% credit | 60% surv 52% | -$12,052 NOT cap gain +$3,875 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$113 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.15/sh | -$859 cycle +$9 [-$1,585…-$988] | 88% surv 86% | -$2,408 NOT cap gain +$13,519 |
| budget: banked $868 debit $859 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $978/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,255/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,810/mo) | +16% |
| vs normal income ($5,620/mo) | 58% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,321/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,645 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 59.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 18.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-12,778 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $93.06 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $93-96.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $94.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $868 | $-11,474 | +$4,453 | +$640 |
| +2.5% | $96.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-72 | $-11,161 | +$4,766 | -$300 |
| +5% | $98.70 (1.0σ) | $-1,012 | $-10,849 | +$5,079 | -$1,240 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.5σ) | $-7,132 | $-8,814 | +$7,113 | -$7,360 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,878 cycle +$3,174 [+$1,322…+$2,723] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$11,025 NOT cap gain +$14,775 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$921 cycle +$2,217 [+$98…+$1,678] · 79% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$4,742 NOT cap gain +$21,058 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$231 cycle +$1,527 [-$542…+$808] · 50% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$8,826 NOT cap gain +$16,974 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$93 cycle +$1,389 [-$865…+$773] · 44% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$3,589 NOT cap gain +$22,211 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$945 cycle +$351 [-$2,090…-$394] · 20% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$1,987 NOT cap gain +$23,813 |
| budget: banked $1,296 debit $945 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$351 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $7,593/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,559/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,176 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 41.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 23.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-23,328 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $1,296 | $-12,902 | +$12,898 | -$108 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.3σ) | $-549 | $-13,189 | +$12,611 | -$1,953 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.4σ) | $-2,394 | $-13,476 | +$12,324 | -$3,798 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-4,104 | $-13,742 | +$12,058 | -$5,508 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,745 cycle +$3,743 [+$1,003…+$2,042] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$13,495 NOT cap gain +$12,305 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$921 cycle +$2,919 [-$108…+$1,160] · 70% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$7,434 NOT cap gain +$18,366 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$638 cycle +$2,636 [-$436…+$848] · 53% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$6,963 NOT cap gain +$18,837 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$94 cycle +$2,092 [-$876…+$208] · 32% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$11,301 NOT cap gain +$14,499 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.06/sh | -$1,901 cycle +$97 [-$3,621…-$1,967] · 3% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$2,242 NOT cap gain +$23,558 |
| budget: banked $1,998 debit $1,901 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $5,381/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,493/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,074/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,074 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 50.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 28.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-23,337 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-40.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,998 | $-15,240 | +$10,560 | +$594 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $243 | $-15,513 | +$10,287 | -$1,161 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.1σ) | $-1,512 | $-15,786 | +$10,014 | -$2,916 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-7,002 | $-16,640 | +$9,160 | -$8,406 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,727 cycle +$5,727 [+$749…+$1,512] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$16,227 NOT cap gain +$9,573 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.89/sh | +$1,786 cycle +$5,786 [+$555…+$1,436] · 93% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$12,323 NOT cap gain +$13,477 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$416 cycle +$4,416 [-$670…+$72] · 28% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$14,452 NOT cap gain +$11,348 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$269 cycle +$4,269 [-$1,170…-$188] · 20% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$10,040 NOT cap gain +$15,760 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$52 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.81/sh | -$3,621 cycle +$379 [-$6,526…-$4,634] | 91% surv 91% | +$2,030 SAFE cap gain +$27,830 |
| budget: banked $4,000 debit $3,621 (91% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$379 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,472/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,269/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,080 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 69.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 39.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,910 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-38.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,000 | $-17,954 | +$7,846 | +$2,440 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,200 | $-18,386 | +$7,414 | +$640 |
| +5% | $37.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $400 | $-18,818 | +$6,982 | -$1,160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-12,000 | $-21,794 | +$4,006 | -$13,560 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.40/sh | +$2,806 cycle +$3,006 [+$3,207…+$5,209] · 100% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$2,332 SAFE cap gain +$28,132 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$327 cycle +$527 [+$309…+$2,579] · 82% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$5,219 SAFE cap gain +$31,019 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$276 cycle +$476 [+$259…+$2,923] · 82% credit | 80% surv 74% | +$12,768 SAFE cap gain +$38,568 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,981/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,910 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (2.5σ) | $200 | $-474 | +$25,326 | +$10,640 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (2.7σ) | $-2,300 | $-1,074 | +$24,726 | +$10,640 |
| +5% | $52.50 (2.8σ) | $-4,800 | $-1,674 | +$24,126 | +$10,640 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.36/sh | +$2,721 cycle +$2,941 [+$2,697…+$4,774] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% | +$747 SAFE cap gain +$26,547 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.12/sh | +$238 cycle +$458 [-$79…+$1,910] · 72% credit | 75% surv 65% | +$3,629 SAFE cap gain +$29,429 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$109 cycle +$329 [-$270…+$2,070] · 70% credit | 80% surv 74% | +$11,100 SAFE cap gain +$36,900 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,906/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.00 (2.3σ) | $220 | $-1,974 | +$23,826 | +$8,660 |
| +2.5% | $50.22 (2.5σ) | $-2,230 | $-2,562 | +$23,238 | +$8,660 |
| +5% | $51.45 (2.7σ) | $-4,680 | $-3,150 | +$22,650 | +$8,660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.32/sh | +$2,638 cycle +$2,918 [+$2,613…+$4,895] · 99% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$796 NOT cap gain +$25,004 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.30/sh | +$599 cycle +$879 [+$271…+$3,063] · 83% credit | 79% surv 73% | +$8,611 SAFE cap gain +$34,411 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$150 cycle +$430 [-$205…+$2,243] · 69% credit | 75% surv 65% | +$2,081 SAFE cap gain +$27,881 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$54 cycle +$226 [-$472…+$2,411] · 65% credit | 80% surv 74% | +$9,477 SAFE cap gain +$35,277 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,681/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,800 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 5.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 3.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,930 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (2.2σ) | $280 | $-3,434 | +$22,366 | +$6,720 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (2.4σ) | $-2,120 | $-4,010 | +$21,790 | +$6,720 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.5σ) | $-4,520 | $-4,586 | +$21,214 | +$6,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.28/sh | +$2,556 cycle +$2,996 [+$2,649…+$4,531] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$2,239 NOT cap gain +$23,561 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$430 cycle +$870 [+$113…+$2,386] · 78% credit | 80% surv 73% | +$7,081 SAFE cap gain +$32,881 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$64 cycle +$504 [-$292…+$1,622] · 66% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$635 SAFE cap gain +$26,435 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.11/sh | -$212 cycle +$228 [-$668…+$1,691] · 61% credit | 81% surv 75% | +$7,960 SAFE cap gain +$33,760 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,081/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,640 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 11.4% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 6.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,860 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.0σ) | $440 | $-4,794 | +$21,006 | +$4,880 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (2.2σ) | $-1,910 | $-5,358 | +$20,442 | +$4,880 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.4σ) | $-4,260 | $-5,922 | +$19,878 | +$4,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.24/sh | +$2,475 cycle +$2,935 [+$2,376…+$4,329] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$3,820 NOT cap gain +$21,980 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$668 cycle +$1,128 [+$273…+$2,207] · 82% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$1,781 NOT cap gain +$24,019 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$264 cycle +$724 [-$267…+$2,000] · 68% credit | 80% surv 73% | +$5,416 SAFE cap gain +$31,216 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$364 cycle +$96 [-$976…+$1,304] · 49% credit | 81% surv 75% | +$6,307 SAFE cap gain +$32,107 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $364 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $11,378/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,725/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,006/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,620 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 17.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 10.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (1.9σ) | $460 | $-6,294 | +$19,506 | +$2,900 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.0σ) | $-1,840 | $-6,846 | +$18,954 | +$2,900 |
| +5% | $48.30 (2.2σ) | $-4,140 | $-7,398 | +$18,402 | +$2,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.20/sh | +$2,395 cycle +$3,015 [+$2,211…+$4,097] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$5,260 NOT cap gain +$20,540 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$582 cycle +$1,202 [+$120…+$1,910] · 78% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$3,226 NOT cap gain +$22,574 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$104 cycle +$724 [-$543…+$1,610] · 61% credit | 80% surv 74% | +$3,895 SAFE cap gain +$29,695 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.26/sh | -$512 cycle +$108 [-$1,283…+$884] · 48% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$4,799 SAFE cap gain +$30,599 |
| budget: banked $620 debit $512 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$108 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,762/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,325/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -68% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-4,406/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,460 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 23.3% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 13.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,880 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $620 | $-7,654 | +$18,146 | +$1,060 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (1.9σ) | $-1,630 | $-8,194 | +$17,606 | +$1,060 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.1σ) | $-3,880 | $-8,734 | +$17,066 | +$1,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.16/sh | +$2,316 cycle +$3,116 [+$1,919…+$3,672] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$6,678 NOT cap gain +$19,122 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$499 cycle +$1,299 [-$107…+$1,554] · 70% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$4,650 NOT cap gain +$21,150 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$574 cycle +$1,374 [-$147…+$1,832] · 70% credit | 79% surv 72% | +$1,505 SAFE cap gain +$27,305 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.33/sh | -$655 cycle +$145 [-$1,599…+$532] · 34% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$3,316 SAFE cap gain +$29,116 |
| budget: banked $800 debit $655 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,160/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,731/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,280 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 29.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 16.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,880 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $800 | $-8,994 | +$16,806 | -$760 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (1.7σ) | $-1,400 | $-9,522 | +$16,278 | -$760 |
| +5% | $46.20 (1.9σ) | $-3,600 | $-10,050 | +$15,750 | -$760 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.12/sh | +$2,238 cycle +$2,758 [+$1,800…+$3,554] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$8,556 NOT cap gain +$17,244 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$416 cycle +$936 [-$287…+$1,437] · 66% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$6,533 NOT cap gain +$19,267 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$413 cycle +$933 [-$443…+$1,636] · 63% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$456 NOT cap gain +$25,344 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$202 cycle +$318 [-$1,144…+$989] · 45% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$449 SAFE cap gain +$26,249 |
| budget: banked $520 debit $202 (39% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$318 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,555/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-4,781/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,560 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 36.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 20.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-26,290 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.00 (1.4σ) | $520 | $-10,794 | +$15,006 | -$1,040 |
| +2.5% | $44.07 (1.6σ) | $-1,630 | $-11,310 | +$14,490 | -$3,040 |
| +5% | $45.15 (1.7σ) | $-3,780 | $-11,826 | +$13,974 | -$3,040 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.01/sh | +$2,012 cycle +$3,852 [+$1,314…+$2,843] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$12,022 NOT cap gain +$13,778 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$864 cycle +$2,704 [-$154…+$1,556] · 70% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$5,525 NOT cap gain +$20,275 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$179 cycle +$2,019 [-$739…+$647] · 46% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$10,009 NOT cap gain +$15,791 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$1,170 cycle +$670 [-$2,608…-$705] · 14% credit | 83% surv 78% | -$2,239 NOT cap gain +$23,561 |
| budget: banked $1,840 debit $1,170 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$670 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,891/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -5% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $169/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,240 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 50.7% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 29.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,880 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,840 | $-14,034 | +$11,766 | +$280 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $-160 | $-14,514 | +$11,286 | -$1,720 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.3σ) | $-2,160 | $-14,994 | +$10,806 | -$3,720 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,160 | $-15,954 | +$9,846 | -$7,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,401 cycle +$3,426 [+$750…+$1,592] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$15,099 NOT cap gain +$10,701 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,566 cycle +$3,591 [+$764…+$1,746] · 98% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$11,087 NOT cap gain +$14,713 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$418 cycle +$2,443 [-$504…+$439] · 44% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$8,436 NOT cap gain +$17,364 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$23 cycle +$2,048 [-$790…+$13] · 26% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$12,631 NOT cap gain +$13,169 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.29/sh | -$1,928 cycle +$97 [-$3,463…-$2,103] · 1% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$3,667 NOT cap gain +$22,133 |
| budget: banked $2,025 debit $1,928 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,660/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,594/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,643/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,535 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 45.4% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 26.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-19,493 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,025 | $-16,499 | +$9,301 | +$855 |
| +2.5% | $38.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $600 | $-16,480 | +$9,320 | -$570 |
| +5% | $39.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-825 | $-16,461 | +$9,339 | -$1,995 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,975 | $-16,379 | +$9,421 | -$8,145 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.92/sh | +$1,282 cycle +$3,368 [+$657…+$1,275] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$15,838 NOT cap gain +$9,962 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.01/sh | +$1,408 cycle +$3,494 [+$639…+$1,371] · 97% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$11,867 NOT cap gain +$13,933 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$378 cycle +$2,464 [-$302…+$292] · 41% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$13,657 NOT cap gain +$12,143 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$339 cycle +$2,425 [-$557…+$208] · 34% credit | 79% surv 71% | -$9,136 NOT cap gain +$16,664 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.45/sh | -$2,033 cycle +$53 [-$3,615…-$2,407] | 88% surv 87% | -$3,726 NOT cap gain +$22,074 |
| budget: banked $2,086 debit $2,033 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $2,911/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,822/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,028/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,070 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 44.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 25.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-18,263 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-39.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,086 | $-17,120 | +$8,680 | +$994 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $774 | $-17,008 | +$8,792 | -$318 |
| +5% | $39.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-539 | $-16,895 | +$8,905 | -$1,631 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-7,014 | $-16,340 | +$9,460 | -$8,106 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,078 cycle +$3,058 [+$539…+$1,056] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$16,752 NOT cap gain +$9,048 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,161 cycle +$3,141 [+$494…+$1,115] · 96% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$12,823 NOT cap gain +$12,977 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$299 cycle +$2,279 [-$307…+$216] · 38% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$14,446 NOT cap gain +$11,354 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$247 cycle +$2,227 [-$550…+$119] · 30% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$9,938 NOT cap gain +$15,862 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.46/sh | -$1,754 cycle +$226 [-$3,156…-$2,098] | 89% surv 87% | -$4,963 NOT cap gain +$20,837 |
| budget: banked $1,980 debit $1,754 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$226 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,377/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,942/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,468 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 39.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 22.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-15,564 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,980 | $-17,830 | +$7,970 | +$1,044 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $870 | $-17,534 | +$8,266 | -$66 |
| +5% | $38.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-240 | $-17,238 | +$8,562 | -$1,176 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,420 | $-15,590 | +$10,210 | -$7,356 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.88/sh | +$969 cycle +$2,960 [+$441…+$921] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$17,532 NOT cap gain +$8,268 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,023 cycle +$3,014 [+$371…+$948] · 94% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$13,633 NOT cap gain +$12,167 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$251 cycle +$2,242 [-$333…+$127] · 34% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$15,164 NOT cap gain +$10,636 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$187 cycle +$2,178 [-$584…+$6] · 26% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$10,669 NOT cap gain +$15,131 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.47/sh | -$1,618 cycle +$373 [-$2,988…-$2,021] | 89% surv 87% | -$5,601 NOT cap gain +$20,199 |
| budget: banked $1,991 debit $1,618 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$373 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,072/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,466/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,139/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,803 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 36.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 21.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-14,317 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-38.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,991 | $-18,501 | +$7,299 | +$1,133 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $987 | $-18,118 | +$7,682 | +$129 |
| +5% | $38.33 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-17 | $-17,735 | +$8,065 | -$875 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,259 | $-15,351 | +$10,449 | -$7,117 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.85/sh | +$846 cycle +$2,986 [+$352…+$693] · 96% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$18,948 NOT cap gain +$6,852 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.86/sh | +$856 cycle +$2,996 [+$226…+$660] · 91% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$15,093 NOT cap gain +$10,707 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$188 cycle +$2,328 [-$377…-$4] · 25% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$16,521 NOT cap gain +$9,279 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$100 cycle +$2,240 [-$656…-$159] · 19% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$12,049 NOT cap gain +$13,751 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.80/sh | -$1,804 cycle +$336 [-$3,316…-$2,329] | 92% surv 91% | -$5,023 NOT cap gain +$20,777 |
| budget: banked $2,140 debit $1,804 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$336 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,166/mo while parked; 10 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,854/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,400 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 35.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 20.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-12,980 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,140 | $-19,794 | +$6,006 | +$1,360 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,253 | $-19,333 | +$6,467 | +$473 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $365 | $-18,871 | +$6,929 | -$415 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,360 | $-15,374 | +$10,426 | -$7,140 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.83/sh | +$746 cycle +$2,861 [+$277…+$555] · 95% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$19,755 NOT cap gain +$6,045 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$737 cycle +$2,852 [+$133…+$476] · 86% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$15,918 NOT cap gain +$9,882 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$152 cycle +$2,267 [-$386…-$82] · 18% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$17,264 NOT cap gain +$8,536 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$59 cycle +$2,174 [-$663…-$246] · 13% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$12,797 NOT cap gain +$13,003 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.80/sh | -$1,617 cycle +$498 [-$3,059…-$2,168] | 92% surv 91% | -$5,696 NOT cap gain +$20,104 |
| budget: banked $2,115 debit $1,617 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$498 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $989/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,931/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,916/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,521 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 32.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 18.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-11,664 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,115 | $-20,501 | +$5,299 | +$1,413 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,328 | $-19,959 | +$5,841 | +$626 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $540 | $-19,416 | +$6,384 | -$162 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-5,985 | $-14,921 | +$10,879 | -$6,687 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.81/sh | +$650 cycle +$2,682 [+$219…+$437] · 94% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$20,616 NOT cap gain +$5,184 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.78/sh | +$627 cycle +$2,659 [+$73…+$359] · 82% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$16,794 NOT cap gain +$9,006 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$119 cycle +$2,151 [-$374…-$118] · 14% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$18,062 NOT cap gain +$7,738 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$26 cycle +$2,058 [-$640…-$290] · 10% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$13,595 NOT cap gain +$12,205 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.79/sh | -$1,431 cycle +$601 [-$2,755…-$1,957] | 92% surv 92% | -$6,328 NOT cap gain +$19,472 |
| budget: banked $2,032 debit $1,431 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$601 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $826/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,761/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,600 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 30.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 17.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-10,384 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-37.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,032 | $-21,266 | +$4,534 | +$1,408 |
| +2.5% | $35.36 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,342 | $-20,645 | +$5,155 | +$718 |
| +5% | $36.23 (≤1σ, normal week) | $652 | $-20,024 | +$5,776 | +$28 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-5,568 | $-14,426 | +$11,374 | -$6,192 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.80/sh | +$637 cycle +$2,861 [+$185…+$404] · 92% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$21,198 NOT cap gain +$4,602 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.75/sh | +$598 cycle +$2,822 [+$12…+$302] · 77% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$17,391 NOT cap gain +$8,409 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$104 cycle +$2,328 [-$419…-$159] · 12% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$18,645 NOT cap gain +$7,155 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$117 cycle +$2,341 [-$561…-$221] · 12% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$14,832 NOT cap gain +$10,968 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$1,199 cycle +$1,025 [-$2,431…-$1,692] | 90% surv 89% | -$7,024 NOT cap gain +$18,776 |
| budget: banked $2,224 debit $1,199 (54% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,025 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,150/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,340/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,481/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,808 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 30.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 17.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-10,380 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.66 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-36.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,224 | $-21,834 | +$3,966 | +$1,600 |
| +2.5% | $34.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,544 | $-21,222 | +$4,578 | +$920 |
| +5% | $35.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $864 | $-20,610 | +$5,190 | +$240 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-5,776 | $-14,634 | +$11,166 | -$6,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.78/sh | +$545 cycle +$2,645 [+$123…+$301] · 88% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$22,095 NOT cap gain +$3,705 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.71/sh | +$498 cycle +$2,598 [-$54…+$199] · 68% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$18,296 NOT cap gain +$7,504 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$77 cycle +$2,177 [-$421…-$168] · 9% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$19,477 NOT cap gain +$6,323 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$79 cycle +$2,179 [-$570…-$238] · 8% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$15,676 NOT cap gain +$10,124 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$1,051 cycle +$1,049 [-$2,241…-$1,522] | 91% surv 89% | -$7,285 NOT cap gain +$18,515 |
| budget: banked $2,100 debit $1,051 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,049 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $949/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,172/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,778 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 27.4% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 15.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-9,118 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-36.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,100 | $-22,640 | +$3,160 | +$1,554 |
| +2.5% | $34.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,514 | $-21,954 | +$3,846 | +$968 |
| +5% | $35.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $927 | $-21,267 | +$4,533 | +$381 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-5,250 | $-14,030 | +$11,770 | -$5,796 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$458 cycle +$2,438 | 69% surv 55% | -$22,270 NOT cap gain +$3,530 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$54 cycle +$2,034 | 74% surv 64% | -$20,348 NOT cap gain +$5,452 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$307 cycle +$2,287 | 76% surv 67% | -$18,575 NOT cap gain +$7,225 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.44/sh | -$866 cycle +$1,114 | 90% surv 89% | -$7,468 NOT cap gain +$18,332 |
| budget: banked $1,980 debit $866 (44% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,114 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $825/mo while parked; 14 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,878/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,644 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 23.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 13.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-7,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-36.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,980 | $-22,728 | +$3,072 | +$1,512 |
| +2.5% | $33.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,485 | $-22,683 | +$3,117 | +$1,017 |
| +5% | $34.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $990 | $-21,924 | +$3,876 | +$522 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-4,620 | $-13,322 | +$12,478 | -$5,088 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,878 cycle +$3,174 [+$1,322…+$2,723] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$11,025 NOT cap gain +$14,775 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$921 cycle +$2,217 [+$98…+$1,678] · 79% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$4,742 NOT cap gain +$21,058 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$231 cycle +$1,527 [-$542…+$808] · 50% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$8,826 NOT cap gain +$16,974 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$93 cycle +$1,389 [-$865…+$773] · 44% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$3,589 NOT cap gain +$22,211 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$945 cycle +$351 [-$2,090…-$394] · 20% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$1,987 NOT cap gain +$23,813 |
| budget: banked $1,296 debit $945 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$351 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $7,593/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,559/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,176 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 41.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 23.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-23,328 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $1,296 | $-12,902 | +$12,898 | -$108 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.3σ) | $-549 | $-13,189 | +$12,611 | -$1,953 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.4σ) | $-2,394 | $-13,476 | +$12,324 | -$3,798 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-4,104 | $-13,742 | +$12,058 | -$5,508 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,745 cycle +$3,743 [+$1,003…+$2,042] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$13,495 NOT cap gain +$12,305 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$921 cycle +$2,919 [-$108…+$1,160] · 70% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$7,434 NOT cap gain +$18,366 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$638 cycle +$2,636 [-$436…+$848] · 53% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$6,963 NOT cap gain +$18,837 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$94 cycle +$2,092 [-$876…+$208] · 32% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$11,301 NOT cap gain +$14,499 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.06/sh | -$1,901 cycle +$97 [-$3,621…-$1,967] · 3% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$2,242 NOT cap gain +$23,558 |
| budget: banked $1,998 debit $1,901 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $5,381/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,493/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,074/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,074 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 50.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 28.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-23,337 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-40.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,998 | $-15,240 | +$10,560 | +$594 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $243 | $-15,513 | +$10,287 | -$1,161 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.1σ) | $-1,512 | $-15,786 | +$10,014 | -$2,916 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-7,002 | $-16,640 | +$9,160 | -$8,406 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,727 cycle +$5,727 [+$749…+$1,512] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$16,227 NOT cap gain +$9,573 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.89/sh | +$1,786 cycle +$5,786 [+$555…+$1,436] · 93% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$12,323 NOT cap gain +$13,477 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$416 cycle +$4,416 [-$670…+$72] · 28% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$14,452 NOT cap gain +$11,348 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$269 cycle +$4,269 [-$1,170…-$188] · 20% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$10,040 NOT cap gain +$15,760 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$52 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.81/sh | -$3,621 cycle +$379 [-$6,526…-$4,634] | 91% surv 91% | +$2,030 SAFE cap gain +$27,830 |
| budget: banked $4,000 debit $3,621 (91% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$379 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,472/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,269/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,080 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 69.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 39.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,910 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-38.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,000 | $-17,954 | +$7,846 | +$2,440 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,200 | $-18,386 | +$7,414 | +$640 |
| +5% | $37.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $400 | $-18,818 | +$6,982 | -$1,160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-12,000 | $-21,794 | +$4,006 | -$13,560 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.40/sh | +$2,806 cycle +$3,006 [+$3,207…+$5,209] · 100% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$2,332 SAFE cap gain +$28,132 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$327 cycle +$527 [+$309…+$2,579] · 82% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$5,219 SAFE cap gain +$31,019 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$276 cycle +$476 [+$259…+$2,923] · 82% credit | 80% surv 74% | +$12,768 SAFE cap gain +$38,568 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,981/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,910 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (2.5σ) | $200 | $-474 | +$25,326 | +$10,640 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (2.7σ) | $-2,300 | $-1,074 | +$24,726 | +$10,640 |
| +5% | $52.50 (2.8σ) | $-4,800 | $-1,674 | +$24,126 | +$10,640 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.36/sh | +$2,721 cycle +$2,941 [+$2,697…+$4,774] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% | +$747 SAFE cap gain +$26,547 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.12/sh | +$238 cycle +$458 [-$79…+$1,910] · 72% credit | 75% surv 65% | +$3,629 SAFE cap gain +$29,429 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$109 cycle +$329 [-$270…+$2,070] · 70% credit | 80% surv 74% | +$11,100 SAFE cap gain +$36,900 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,906/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.00 (2.3σ) | $220 | $-1,974 | +$23,826 | +$8,660 |
| +2.5% | $50.22 (2.5σ) | $-2,230 | $-2,562 | +$23,238 | +$8,660 |
| +5% | $51.45 (2.7σ) | $-4,680 | $-3,150 | +$22,650 | +$8,660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.32/sh | +$2,638 cycle +$2,918 [+$2,613…+$4,895] · 99% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$796 NOT cap gain +$25,004 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.30/sh | +$599 cycle +$879 [+$271…+$3,063] · 83% credit | 79% surv 73% | +$8,611 SAFE cap gain +$34,411 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$150 cycle +$430 [-$205…+$2,243] · 69% credit | 75% surv 65% | +$2,081 SAFE cap gain +$27,881 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$54 cycle +$226 [-$472…+$2,411] · 65% credit | 80% surv 74% | +$9,477 SAFE cap gain +$35,277 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,681/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,800 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 5.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 3.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,930 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (2.2σ) | $280 | $-3,434 | +$22,366 | +$6,720 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (2.4σ) | $-2,120 | $-4,010 | +$21,790 | +$6,720 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.5σ) | $-4,520 | $-4,586 | +$21,214 | +$6,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.28/sh | +$2,556 cycle +$2,996 [+$2,649…+$4,531] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$2,239 NOT cap gain +$23,561 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$430 cycle +$870 [+$113…+$2,386] · 78% credit | 80% surv 73% | +$7,081 SAFE cap gain +$32,881 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$64 cycle +$504 [-$292…+$1,622] · 66% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$635 SAFE cap gain +$26,435 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.11/sh | -$212 cycle +$228 [-$668…+$1,691] · 61% credit | 81% surv 75% | +$7,960 SAFE cap gain +$33,760 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,081/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,640 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 11.4% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 6.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,860 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.0σ) | $440 | $-4,794 | +$21,006 | +$4,880 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (2.2σ) | $-1,910 | $-5,358 | +$20,442 | +$4,880 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.4σ) | $-4,260 | $-5,922 | +$19,878 | +$4,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.24/sh | +$2,475 cycle +$2,935 [+$2,376…+$4,329] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$3,820 NOT cap gain +$21,980 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$668 cycle +$1,128 [+$273…+$2,207] · 82% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$1,781 NOT cap gain +$24,019 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$264 cycle +$724 [-$267…+$2,000] · 68% credit | 80% surv 73% | +$5,416 SAFE cap gain +$31,216 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$364 cycle +$96 [-$976…+$1,304] · 49% credit | 81% surv 75% | +$6,307 SAFE cap gain +$32,107 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $364 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $11,378/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,725/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,006/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,620 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 17.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 10.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (1.9σ) | $460 | $-6,294 | +$19,506 | +$2,900 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.0σ) | $-1,840 | $-6,846 | +$18,954 | +$2,900 |
| +5% | $48.30 (2.2σ) | $-4,140 | $-7,398 | +$18,402 | +$2,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.20/sh | +$2,395 cycle +$3,015 [+$2,211…+$4,097] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$5,260 NOT cap gain +$20,540 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$582 cycle +$1,202 [+$120…+$1,910] · 78% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$3,226 NOT cap gain +$22,574 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$104 cycle +$724 [-$543…+$1,610] · 61% credit | 80% surv 74% | +$3,895 SAFE cap gain +$29,695 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.26/sh | -$512 cycle +$108 [-$1,283…+$884] · 48% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$4,799 SAFE cap gain +$30,599 |
| budget: banked $620 debit $512 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$108 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,762/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,325/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -68% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-4,406/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,460 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 23.3% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 13.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,880 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $620 | $-7,654 | +$18,146 | +$1,060 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (1.9σ) | $-1,630 | $-8,194 | +$17,606 | +$1,060 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.1σ) | $-3,880 | $-8,734 | +$17,066 | +$1,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.16/sh | +$2,316 cycle +$3,116 [+$1,919…+$3,672] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$6,678 NOT cap gain +$19,122 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$499 cycle +$1,299 [-$107…+$1,554] · 70% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$4,650 NOT cap gain +$21,150 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$574 cycle +$1,374 [-$147…+$1,832] · 70% credit | 79% surv 72% | +$1,505 SAFE cap gain +$27,305 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.33/sh | -$655 cycle +$145 [-$1,599…+$532] · 34% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$3,316 SAFE cap gain +$29,116 |
| budget: banked $800 debit $655 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,160/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,731/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,280 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 29.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 16.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,880 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $800 | $-8,994 | +$16,806 | -$760 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (1.7σ) | $-1,400 | $-9,522 | +$16,278 | -$760 |
| +5% | $46.20 (1.9σ) | $-3,600 | $-10,050 | +$15,750 | -$760 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.12/sh | +$2,238 cycle +$2,758 [+$1,800…+$3,554] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$8,556 NOT cap gain +$17,244 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$416 cycle +$936 [-$287…+$1,437] · 66% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$6,533 NOT cap gain +$19,267 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$413 cycle +$933 [-$443…+$1,636] · 63% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$456 NOT cap gain +$25,344 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$202 cycle +$318 [-$1,144…+$989] · 45% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$449 SAFE cap gain +$26,249 |
| budget: banked $520 debit $202 (39% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$318 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,555/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-4,781/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,560 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 36.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 20.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-26,290 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.00 (1.4σ) | $520 | $-10,794 | +$15,006 | -$1,040 |
| +2.5% | $44.07 (1.6σ) | $-1,630 | $-11,310 | +$14,490 | -$3,040 |
| +5% | $45.15 (1.7σ) | $-3,780 | $-11,826 | +$13,974 | -$3,040 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.01/sh | +$2,012 cycle +$3,852 [+$1,314…+$2,843] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$12,022 NOT cap gain +$13,778 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$864 cycle +$2,704 [-$154…+$1,556] · 70% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$5,525 NOT cap gain +$20,275 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$179 cycle +$2,019 [-$739…+$647] · 46% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$10,009 NOT cap gain +$15,791 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$1,170 cycle +$670 [-$2,608…-$705] · 14% credit | 83% surv 78% | -$2,239 NOT cap gain +$23,561 |
| budget: banked $1,840 debit $1,170 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$670 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,891/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -5% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $169/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,240 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 50.7% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 29.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,880 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,840 | $-14,034 | +$11,766 | +$280 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $-160 | $-14,514 | +$11,286 | -$1,720 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.3σ) | $-2,160 | $-14,994 | +$10,806 | -$3,720 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,160 | $-15,954 | +$9,846 | -$7,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,401 cycle +$3,426 [+$750…+$1,592] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$15,099 NOT cap gain +$10,701 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,566 cycle +$3,591 [+$764…+$1,746] · 98% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$11,087 NOT cap gain +$14,713 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$418 cycle +$2,443 [-$504…+$439] · 44% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$8,436 NOT cap gain +$17,364 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$23 cycle +$2,048 [-$790…+$13] · 26% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$12,631 NOT cap gain +$13,169 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.29/sh | -$1,928 cycle +$97 [-$3,463…-$2,103] · 1% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$3,667 NOT cap gain +$22,133 |
| budget: banked $2,025 debit $1,928 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,660/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,594/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,643/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,535 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 45.4% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 26.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-19,493 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,025 | $-16,499 | +$9,301 | +$855 |
| +2.5% | $38.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $600 | $-16,480 | +$9,320 | -$570 |
| +5% | $39.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-825 | $-16,461 | +$9,339 | -$1,995 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,975 | $-16,379 | +$9,421 | -$8,145 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.92/sh | +$1,282 cycle +$3,368 [+$657…+$1,275] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$15,838 NOT cap gain +$9,962 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.01/sh | +$1,408 cycle +$3,494 [+$639…+$1,371] · 97% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$11,867 NOT cap gain +$13,933 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$378 cycle +$2,464 [-$302…+$292] · 41% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$13,657 NOT cap gain +$12,143 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$339 cycle +$2,425 [-$557…+$208] · 34% credit | 79% surv 71% | -$9,136 NOT cap gain +$16,664 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.45/sh | -$2,033 cycle +$53 [-$3,615…-$2,407] | 88% surv 87% | -$3,726 NOT cap gain +$22,074 |
| budget: banked $2,086 debit $2,033 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $2,911/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,822/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,028/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,070 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 44.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 25.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-18,263 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-39.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,086 | $-17,120 | +$8,680 | +$994 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $774 | $-17,008 | +$8,792 | -$318 |
| +5% | $39.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-539 | $-16,895 | +$8,905 | -$1,631 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-7,014 | $-16,340 | +$9,460 | -$8,106 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,078 cycle +$3,058 [+$539…+$1,056] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$16,752 NOT cap gain +$9,048 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,161 cycle +$3,141 [+$494…+$1,115] · 96% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$12,823 NOT cap gain +$12,977 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$299 cycle +$2,279 [-$307…+$216] · 38% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$14,446 NOT cap gain +$11,354 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$247 cycle +$2,227 [-$550…+$119] · 30% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$9,938 NOT cap gain +$15,862 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.46/sh | -$1,754 cycle +$226 [-$3,156…-$2,098] | 89% surv 87% | -$4,963 NOT cap gain +$20,837 |
| budget: banked $1,980 debit $1,754 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$226 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,377/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,942/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,468 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 39.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 22.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-15,564 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,980 | $-17,830 | +$7,970 | +$1,044 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $870 | $-17,534 | +$8,266 | -$66 |
| +5% | $38.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-240 | $-17,238 | +$8,562 | -$1,176 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,420 | $-15,590 | +$10,210 | -$7,356 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.88/sh | +$969 cycle +$2,960 [+$441…+$921] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$17,532 NOT cap gain +$8,268 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,023 cycle +$3,014 [+$371…+$948] · 94% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$13,633 NOT cap gain +$12,167 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$251 cycle +$2,242 [-$333…+$127] · 34% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$15,164 NOT cap gain +$10,636 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$187 cycle +$2,178 [-$584…+$6] · 26% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$10,669 NOT cap gain +$15,131 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.47/sh | -$1,618 cycle +$373 [-$2,988…-$2,021] | 89% surv 87% | -$5,601 NOT cap gain +$20,199 |
| budget: banked $1,991 debit $1,618 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$373 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,072/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,466/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,139/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,803 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 36.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 21.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-14,317 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-38.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,991 | $-18,501 | +$7,299 | +$1,133 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $987 | $-18,118 | +$7,682 | +$129 |
| +5% | $38.33 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-17 | $-17,735 | +$8,065 | -$875 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,259 | $-15,351 | +$10,449 | -$7,117 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.85/sh | +$846 cycle +$2,986 [+$352…+$693] · 96% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$18,948 NOT cap gain +$6,852 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.86/sh | +$856 cycle +$2,996 [+$226…+$660] · 91% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$15,093 NOT cap gain +$10,707 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$188 cycle +$2,328 [-$377…-$4] · 25% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$16,521 NOT cap gain +$9,279 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$100 cycle +$2,240 [-$656…-$159] · 19% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$12,049 NOT cap gain +$13,751 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.80/sh | -$1,804 cycle +$336 [-$3,316…-$2,329] | 92% surv 91% | -$5,023 NOT cap gain +$20,777 |
| budget: banked $2,140 debit $1,804 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$336 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,166/mo while parked; 10 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,854/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,400 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 35.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 20.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-12,980 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,140 | $-19,794 | +$6,006 | +$1,360 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,253 | $-19,333 | +$6,467 | +$473 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $365 | $-18,871 | +$6,929 | -$415 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-6,360 | $-15,374 | +$10,426 | -$7,140 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.83/sh | +$746 cycle +$2,861 [+$277…+$555] · 95% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$19,755 NOT cap gain +$6,045 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$737 cycle +$2,852 [+$133…+$476] · 86% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$15,918 NOT cap gain +$9,882 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$152 cycle +$2,267 [-$386…-$82] · 18% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$17,264 NOT cap gain +$8,536 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$59 cycle +$2,174 [-$663…-$246] · 13% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$12,797 NOT cap gain +$13,003 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.80/sh | -$1,617 cycle +$498 [-$3,059…-$2,168] | 92% surv 91% | -$5,696 NOT cap gain +$20,104 |
| budget: banked $2,115 debit $1,617 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$498 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $989/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,931/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,916/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,521 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 32.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 18.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-11,664 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,115 | $-20,501 | +$5,299 | +$1,413 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,328 | $-19,959 | +$5,841 | +$626 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $540 | $-19,416 | +$6,384 | -$162 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-5,985 | $-14,921 | +$10,879 | -$6,687 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.81/sh | +$650 cycle +$2,682 [+$219…+$437] · 94% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$20,616 NOT cap gain +$5,184 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.78/sh | +$627 cycle +$2,659 [+$73…+$359] · 82% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$16,794 NOT cap gain +$9,006 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$119 cycle +$2,151 [-$374…-$118] · 14% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$18,062 NOT cap gain +$7,738 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$26 cycle +$2,058 [-$640…-$290] · 10% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$13,595 NOT cap gain +$12,205 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.79/sh | -$1,431 cycle +$601 [-$2,755…-$1,957] | 92% surv 92% | -$6,328 NOT cap gain +$19,472 |
| budget: banked $2,032 debit $1,431 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$601 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $826/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,761/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,600 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 30.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 17.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-10,384 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-37.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,032 | $-21,266 | +$4,534 | +$1,408 |
| +2.5% | $35.36 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,342 | $-20,645 | +$5,155 | +$718 |
| +5% | $36.23 (≤1σ, normal week) | $652 | $-20,024 | +$5,776 | +$28 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-5,568 | $-14,426 | +$11,374 | -$6,192 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.80/sh | +$637 cycle +$2,861 [+$185…+$404] · 92% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$21,198 NOT cap gain +$4,602 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.75/sh | +$598 cycle +$2,822 [+$12…+$302] · 77% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$17,391 NOT cap gain +$8,409 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$104 cycle +$2,328 [-$419…-$159] · 12% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$18,645 NOT cap gain +$7,155 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$117 cycle +$2,341 [-$561…-$221] · 12% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$14,832 NOT cap gain +$10,968 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$1,199 cycle +$1,025 [-$2,431…-$1,692] | 90% surv 89% | -$7,024 NOT cap gain +$18,776 |
| budget: banked $2,224 debit $1,199 (54% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,025 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,150/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,340/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,481/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,808 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 30.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 17.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-10,380 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.66 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-36.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,224 | $-21,834 | +$3,966 | +$1,600 |
| +2.5% | $34.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,544 | $-21,222 | +$4,578 | +$920 |
| +5% | $35.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $864 | $-20,610 | +$5,190 | +$240 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-5,776 | $-14,634 | +$11,166 | -$6,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.78/sh | +$545 cycle +$2,645 [+$123…+$301] · 88% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$22,095 NOT cap gain +$3,705 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.71/sh | +$498 cycle +$2,598 [-$54…+$199] · 68% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$18,296 NOT cap gain +$7,504 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$77 cycle +$2,177 [-$421…-$168] · 9% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$19,477 NOT cap gain +$6,323 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$79 cycle +$2,179 [-$570…-$238] · 8% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$15,676 NOT cap gain +$10,124 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$1,051 cycle +$1,049 [-$2,241…-$1,522] | 91% surv 89% | -$7,285 NOT cap gain +$18,515 |
| budget: banked $2,100 debit $1,051 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,049 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $949/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,172/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,778 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 27.4% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 15.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-9,118 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-36.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,100 | $-22,640 | +$3,160 | +$1,554 |
| +2.5% | $34.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,514 | $-21,954 | +$3,846 | +$968 |
| +5% | $35.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $927 | $-21,267 | +$4,533 | +$381 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-5,250 | $-14,030 | +$11,770 | -$5,796 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$458 cycle +$2,438 | 69% surv 55% | -$22,270 NOT cap gain +$3,530 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$54 cycle +$2,034 | 74% surv 64% | -$20,348 NOT cap gain +$5,452 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$307 cycle +$2,287 | 76% surv 67% | -$18,575 NOT cap gain +$7,225 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.44/sh | -$866 cycle +$1,114 | 90% surv 89% | -$7,468 NOT cap gain +$18,332 |
| budget: banked $1,980 debit $866 (44% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,114 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $825/mo while parked; 14 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,878/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,644 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 23.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 13.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-7,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-36.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,980 | $-22,728 | +$3,072 | +$1,512 |
| +2.5% | $33.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,485 | $-22,683 | +$3,117 | +$1,017 |
| +5% | $34.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $990 | $-21,924 | +$3,876 | +$522 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $-4,620 | $-13,322 | +$12,478 | -$5,088 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.16/sh | +$2,316 cycle +$3,116 [+$1,919…+$3,672] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$29,783 NOT cap gain +$24,197 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$499 cycle +$1,299 [-$107…+$1,554] · 70% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$26,535 NOT cap gain +$27,445 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$574 cycle +$1,374 [-$147…+$1,832] · 70% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$18,452 NOT cap gain +$35,528 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.33/sh | -$655 cycle +$145 [-$1,599…+$532] · 34% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$15,677 NOT cap gain +$38,303 |
| budget: banked $800 debit $655 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,160/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $938/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,545 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 509.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 32.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,060 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $800 | $-32,099 | +$21,881 | +$520 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (1.7σ) | $-1,400 | $-32,097 | +$21,883 | -$1,680 |
| +5% | $46.20 (1.9σ) | $-3,600 | $-32,095 | +$21,885 | -$3,880 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-24,200 | $-32,074 | +$21,906 | -$21,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,878 cycle +$3,174 [+$1,322…+$2,723] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$35,703 NOT cap gain +$18,277 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$921 cycle +$2,217 [+$98…+$1,678] · 79% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$26,590 NOT cap gain +$27,390 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$231 cycle +$1,527 [-$542…+$808] · 50% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$32,285 NOT cap gain +$21,695 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$93 cycle +$1,389 [-$865…+$773] · 44% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$24,414 NOT cap gain +$29,566 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$945 cycle +$351 [-$2,090…-$394] · 20% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$21,449 NOT cap gain +$32,531 |
| budget: banked $1,296 debit $945 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$351 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $7,593/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,854/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,315 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 538.6% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 34.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-48,690 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $1,296 | $-37,581 | +$16,399 | +$1,044 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.3σ) | $-549 | $-37,374 | +$16,606 | -$801 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.4σ) | $-2,394 | $-37,167 | +$16,813 | -$2,646 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-26,604 | $-34,750 | +$19,230 | -$24,156 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,745 cycle +$3,743 [+$1,003…+$2,042] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$39,138 NOT cap gain +$14,842 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$921 cycle +$2,919 [-$108…+$1,160] · 70% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$30,893 NOT cap gain +$23,087 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$638 cycle +$2,636 [-$436…+$848] · 53% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$30,175 NOT cap gain +$23,805 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$94 cycle +$2,092 [-$876…+$208] · 32% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$35,724 NOT cap gain +$18,256 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.06/sh | -$1,901 cycle +$97 [-$3,621…-$1,967] · 3% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$21,703 NOT cap gain +$32,277 |
| budget: banked $1,998 debit $1,901 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $5,381/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,493/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,487/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,213 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 586.9% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 37.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-48,699 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-40.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,998 | $-40,883 | +$13,097 | +$1,746 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $243 | $-40,686 | +$13,294 | -$9 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.1σ) | $-1,512 | $-40,489 | +$13,491 | -$1,764 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-29,502 | $-37,648 | +$16,332 | -$27,054 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,727 cycle +$5,727 [+$749…+$1,512] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$43,188 NOT cap gain +$10,792 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.89/sh | +$1,786 cycle +$5,786 [+$555…+$1,436] · 93% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$38,064 NOT cap gain +$15,916 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$416 cycle +$4,416 [-$670…+$72] · 28% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$40,434 NOT cap gain +$13,546 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$269 cycle +$4,269 [-$1,170…-$188] · 20% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$34,576 NOT cap gain +$19,404 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$52 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.81/sh | -$3,621 cycle +$379 [-$6,526…-$4,634] | 91% surv 91% | -$17,445 NOT cap gain +$36,535 |
| budget: banked $4,000 debit $3,621 (91% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$379 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,472/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,938/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,345 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 722.4% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 46.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,090 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-38.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,000 | $-44,915 | +$9,065 | +$3,720 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,200 | $-44,913 | +$9,067 | +$1,920 |
| +5% | $37.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $400 | $-44,911 | +$9,069 | +$120 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-37,000 | $-44,874 | +$9,106 | -$34,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.40/sh | +$2,806 cycle +$3,006 [+$3,207…+$5,209] · 100% credit | 70% surv 56% | -$17,881 NOT cap gain +$36,099 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$327 cycle +$527 [+$309…+$2,579] · 82% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$13,293 NOT cap gain +$40,687 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$276 cycle +$476 [+$259…+$2,923] · 82% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$3,334 NOT cap gain +$50,646 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,312/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,145 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 319.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 20.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,090 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (2.5σ) | $200 | $-20,687 | +$33,293 | -$80 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (2.7σ) | $-2,300 | $-20,684 | +$33,296 | -$2,580 |
| +5% | $52.50 (2.8σ) | $-4,800 | $-20,682 | +$33,298 | -$5,080 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-12,800 | $-20,674 | +$33,306 | -$10,080 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.36/sh | +$2,721 cycle +$2,941 [+$2,697…+$4,774] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$19,947 NOT cap gain +$34,033 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.12/sh | +$238 cycle +$458 [-$79…+$1,910] · 72% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$15,364 NOT cap gain +$38,616 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$109 cycle +$329 [-$270…+$2,070] · 70% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$5,483 NOT cap gain +$48,497 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,237/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,125 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 352.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 22.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,080 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.00 (2.3σ) | $220 | $-22,669 | +$31,311 | -$60 |
| +2.5% | $50.22 (2.5σ) | $-2,230 | $-22,666 | +$31,314 | -$2,510 |
| +5% | $51.45 (2.7σ) | $-4,680 | $-22,664 | +$31,316 | -$4,960 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-14,780 | $-22,654 | +$31,326 | -$12,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.32/sh | +$2,638 cycle +$2,918 [+$2,613…+$4,895] · 99% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$21,973 NOT cap gain +$32,007 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.30/sh | +$599 cycle +$879 [+$271…+$3,063] · 83% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$8,937 NOT cap gain +$45,043 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$150 cycle +$430 [-$205…+$2,243] · 69% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$17,394 NOT cap gain +$36,586 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$54 cycle +$226 [-$472…+$2,411] · 65% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$7,588 NOT cap gain +$46,392 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,012/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,065 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 384.4% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 24.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,110 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (2.2σ) | $280 | $-24,611 | +$29,369 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (2.4σ) | $-2,120 | $-24,609 | +$29,371 | -$2,400 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.5σ) | $-4,520 | $-24,606 | +$29,374 | -$4,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-16,720 | $-24,594 | +$29,386 | -$14,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.28/sh | +$2,556 cycle +$2,996 [+$2,649…+$4,531] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$23,897 NOT cap gain +$30,083 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$430 cycle +$870 [+$113…+$2,386] · 78% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$10,948 NOT cap gain +$43,032 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$64 cycle +$504 [-$292…+$1,622] · 66% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$19,322 NOT cap gain +$34,658 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.11/sh | -$212 cycle +$228 [-$668…+$1,691] · 61% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$9,587 NOT cap gain +$44,393 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-412/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,905 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 415.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 26.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,040 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.0σ) | $440 | $-26,453 | +$27,527 | +$160 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (2.2σ) | $-1,910 | $-26,451 | +$27,529 | -$2,190 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.4σ) | $-4,260 | $-26,448 | +$27,532 | -$4,540 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-18,560 | $-26,434 | +$27,546 | -$15,840 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.24/sh | +$2,475 cycle +$2,935 [+$2,376…+$4,329] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$25,960 NOT cap gain +$28,020 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$668 cycle +$1,128 [+$273…+$2,207] · 82% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$22,702 NOT cap gain +$31,278 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$264 cycle +$724 [-$267…+$2,000] · 68% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$13,095 NOT cap gain +$40,885 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$364 cycle +$96 [-$976…+$1,304] · 49% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$11,722 NOT cap gain +$42,258 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $364 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $11,378/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,725/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-337/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,885 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 448.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 28.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,080 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (1.9σ) | $460 | $-28,435 | +$25,545 | +$180 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.0σ) | $-1,840 | $-28,433 | +$25,547 | -$2,120 |
| +5% | $48.30 (2.2σ) | $-4,140 | $-28,430 | +$25,550 | -$4,420 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-20,540 | $-28,414 | +$25,566 | -$17,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.20/sh | +$2,395 cycle +$3,015 [+$2,211…+$4,097] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$27,882 NOT cap gain +$26,098 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$582 cycle +$1,202 [+$120…+$1,910] · 78% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$24,629 NOT cap gain +$29,351 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$104 cycle +$724 [-$543…+$1,610] · 61% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$15,098 NOT cap gain +$38,882 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.26/sh | -$512 cycle +$108 [-$1,283…+$884] · 48% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$13,712 NOT cap gain +$40,268 |
| budget: banked $620 debit $512 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$108 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,762/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,325/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -68% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $263/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,725 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 478.8% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 30.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,060 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $620 | $-30,277 | +$23,703 | +$340 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (1.9σ) | $-1,630 | $-30,275 | +$23,705 | -$1,910 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.1σ) | $-3,880 | $-30,272 | +$23,708 | -$4,160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-22,380 | $-30,254 | +$23,726 | -$19,660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.12/sh | +$2,238 cycle +$2,758 [+$1,800…+$3,554] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$32,143 NOT cap gain +$21,837 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$416 cycle +$936 [-$287…+$1,437] · 66% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$28,900 NOT cap gain +$25,080 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$413 cycle +$933 [-$443…+$1,636] · 63% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$20,895 NOT cap gain +$33,085 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$202 cycle +$318 [-$1,144…+$989] · 45% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$19,508 NOT cap gain +$34,472 |
| budget: banked $520 debit $202 (39% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$318 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,555/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-112/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,825 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 547.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 34.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,470 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.00 (1.4σ) | $520 | $-34,381 | +$19,599 | +$240 |
| +2.5% | $44.07 (1.6σ) | $-1,630 | $-34,379 | +$19,601 | -$1,910 |
| +5% | $45.15 (1.7σ) | $-3,780 | $-34,377 | +$19,603 | -$4,060 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-26,480 | $-34,354 | +$19,626 | -$23,760 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.01/sh | +$2,012 cycle +$3,852 [+$1,314…+$2,843] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$37,055 NOT cap gain +$16,925 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$864 cycle +$2,704 [-$154…+$1,556] · 70% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$28,133 NOT cap gain +$25,847 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$179 cycle +$2,019 [-$739…+$647] · 46% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$33,822 NOT cap gain +$20,158 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$1,170 cycle +$670 [-$2,608…-$705] · 14% credit | 83% surv 78% | -$23,160 NOT cap gain +$30,820 |
| budget: banked $1,840 debit $1,170 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$670 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,891/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -5% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,838/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,505 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 625.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 39.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-54,060 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,840 | $-39,067 | +$14,913 | +$1,560 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $-160 | $-39,065 | +$14,915 | -$440 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.3σ) | $-2,160 | $-39,063 | +$14,917 | -$2,440 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-31,160 | $-39,034 | +$14,946 | -$28,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,401 cycle +$3,426 [+$750…+$1,592] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$41,415 NOT cap gain +$12,565 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,566 cycle +$3,591 [+$764…+$1,746] · 98% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$36,184 NOT cap gain +$17,796 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$418 cycle +$2,443 [-$504…+$439] · 44% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$32,328 NOT cap gain +$21,652 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$23 cycle +$2,048 [-$790…+$13] · 26% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$37,728 NOT cap gain +$16,252 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.29/sh | -$1,928 cycle +$97 [-$3,463…-$2,103] · 1% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$21,661 NOT cap gain +$32,319 |
| budget: banked $2,025 debit $1,928 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,660/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,594/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,672/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,484 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 508.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 32.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-40,628 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,025 | $-42,816 | +$11,164 | +$1,815 |
| +2.5% | $38.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $600 | $-42,339 | +$11,641 | +$390 |
| +5% | $39.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-825 | $-41,862 | +$12,118 | -$1,035 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-25,725 | $-34,279 | +$19,701 | -$23,685 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.92/sh | +$1,282 cycle +$3,368 [+$657…+$1,275] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$42,460 NOT cap gain +$11,520 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.01/sh | +$1,408 cycle +$3,494 [+$639…+$1,371] · 97% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$37,269 NOT cap gain +$16,711 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$378 cycle +$2,464 [-$302…+$292] · 41% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$39,300 NOT cap gain +$14,680 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$339 cycle +$2,425 [-$557…+$208] · 34% credit | 79% surv 71% | -$33,333 NOT cap gain +$20,647 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.45/sh | -$2,033 cycle +$53 [-$3,615…-$2,407] | 88% surv 87% | -$20,690 NOT cap gain +$33,290 |
| budget: banked $2,086 debit $2,033 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $2,911/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,822/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,929/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,956 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 482.6% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 30.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-37,989 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-39.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,086 | $-43,742 | +$10,238 | +$1,890 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $774 | $-43,178 | +$10,802 | +$578 |
| +5% | $39.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-539 | $-42,613 | +$11,367 | -$735 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-24,514 | $-33,204 | +$20,776 | -$22,610 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,078 cycle +$3,058 [+$539…+$1,056] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$43,743 NOT cap gain +$10,237 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,161 cycle +$3,141 [+$494…+$1,115] · 96% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$38,595 NOT cap gain +$15,385 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$299 cycle +$2,279 [-$307…+$216] · 38% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$40,458 NOT cap gain +$13,522 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$247 cycle +$2,227 [-$550…+$119] · 30% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$34,504 NOT cap gain +$19,476 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.46/sh | -$1,754 cycle +$226 [-$3,156…-$2,098] | 89% surv 87% | -$21,490 NOT cap gain +$32,490 |
| budget: banked $1,980 debit $1,754 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$226 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,377/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,587/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,227 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 420.5% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 26.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-32,472 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,980 | $-44,821 | +$9,159 | +$1,812 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $870 | $-44,079 | +$9,901 | +$702 |
| +5% | $38.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-240 | $-43,337 | +$10,643 | -$408 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-21,420 | $-30,382 | +$23,598 | -$19,788 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.88/sh | +$969 cycle +$2,960 [+$441…+$921] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$44,828 NOT cap gain +$9,152 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,023 cycle +$3,014 [+$371…+$948] · 94% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$39,709 NOT cap gain +$14,271 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$251 cycle +$2,242 [-$333…+$127] · 34% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$41,482 NOT cap gain +$12,498 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$187 cycle +$2,178 [-$584…+$6] · 26% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$35,540 NOT cap gain +$18,440 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.47/sh | -$1,618 cycle +$373 [-$2,988…-$2,021] | 89% surv 87% | -$22,330 NOT cap gain +$31,650 |
| budget: banked $1,991 debit $1,618 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$373 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,072/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,466/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,657/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,499 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 391.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 25.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-29,816 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-38.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,991 | $-45,797 | +$8,183 | +$1,837 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $987 | $-44,974 | +$9,006 | +$833 |
| +5% | $38.33 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-17 | $-44,151 | +$9,829 | -$170 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-20,009 | $-29,107 | +$24,873 | -$18,513 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.85/sh | +$846 cycle +$2,986 [+$352…+$693] · 96% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$46,790 NOT cap gain +$7,190 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.86/sh | +$856 cycle +$2,996 [+$226…+$660] · 91% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$41,715 NOT cap gain +$12,265 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$188 cycle +$2,328 [-$377…-$4] · 25% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$43,384 NOT cap gain +$10,596 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$100 cycle +$2,240 [-$656…-$159] · 19% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$37,466 NOT cap gain +$16,514 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.80/sh | -$1,804 cycle +$336 [-$3,316…-$2,329] | 92% surv 91% | -$18,349 NOT cap gain +$35,631 |
| budget: banked $2,140 debit $1,804 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$336 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,166/mo while parked; 10 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,243/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,033 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 367.2% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 23.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-27,070 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,140 | $-47,636 | +$6,344 | +$2,000 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,253 | $-46,747 | +$7,233 | +$1,113 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $365 | $-45,857 | +$8,123 | +$225 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-18,860 | $-28,094 | +$25,886 | -$17,500 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.83/sh | +$746 cycle +$2,861 [+$277…+$555] · 95% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$47,902 NOT cap gain +$6,078 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$737 cycle +$2,852 [+$133…+$476] · 86% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$42,846 NOT cap gain +$11,134 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$152 cycle +$2,267 [-$386…-$82] · 18% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$44,432 NOT cap gain +$9,548 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$59 cycle +$2,174 [-$663…-$246] · 13% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$38,519 NOT cap gain +$15,461 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.80/sh | -$1,617 cycle +$498 [-$3,059…-$2,168] | 92% surv 91% | -$19,174 NOT cap gain +$34,806 |
| budget: banked $2,115 debit $1,617 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$498 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $989/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,931/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,178/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,090 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 334.8% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 21.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-24,345 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,115 | $-48,648 | +$5,332 | +$1,989 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,328 | $-47,684 | +$6,296 | +$1,202 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $540 | $-46,719 | +$7,261 | +$414 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-17,235 | $-26,605 | +$27,375 | -$16,011 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.81/sh | +$650 cycle +$2,682 [+$219…+$437] · 94% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$49,068 NOT cap gain +$4,912 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.78/sh | +$627 cycle +$2,659 [+$73…+$359] · 82% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$44,026 NOT cap gain +$9,954 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$119 cycle +$2,151 [-$374…-$118] · 14% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$45,535 NOT cap gain +$8,445 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$26 cycle +$2,058 [-$640…-$290] · 10% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$39,622 NOT cap gain +$14,358 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.79/sh | -$1,431 cycle +$601 [-$2,755…-$1,957] | 92% surv 92% | -$20,058 NOT cap gain +$33,922 |
| budget: banked $2,032 debit $1,431 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$601 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $826/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,894/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,106 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 301.8% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 19.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-21,656 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-37.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,032 | $-49,718 | +$4,262 | +$1,920 |
| +2.5% | $35.36 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,342 | $-48,681 | +$5,299 | +$1,230 |
| +5% | $36.23 (≤1σ, normal week) | $652 | $-47,644 | +$6,336 | +$540 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-15,568 | $-25,074 | +$28,906 | -$14,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.80/sh | +$637 cycle +$2,861 [+$185…+$404] · 92% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$49,890 NOT cap gain +$4,090 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.75/sh | +$598 cycle +$2,822 [+$12…+$302] · 77% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$44,864 NOT cap gain +$9,116 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$104 cycle +$2,328 [-$419…-$159] · 12% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$46,359 NOT cap gain +$7,621 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$117 cycle +$2,341 [-$561…-$221] · 12% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$41,341 NOT cap gain +$12,639 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$1,199 cycle +$1,025 [-$2,431…-$1,692] | 90% surv 89% | -$26,641 NOT cap gain +$27,339 |
| budget: banked $2,224 debit $1,199 (54% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,025 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,150/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,340/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,614/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,314 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 305.2% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 19.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-21,652 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.66 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-36.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,224 | $-50,527 | +$3,453 | +$2,112 |
| +2.5% | $34.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,544 | $-49,505 | +$4,475 | +$1,432 |
| +5% | $35.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $864 | $-48,484 | +$5,496 | +$752 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-15,776 | $-25,282 | +$28,698 | -$14,688 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.78/sh | +$545 cycle +$2,645 [+$123…+$301] · 88% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$51,093 NOT cap gain +$2,887 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.71/sh | +$498 cycle +$2,598 [-$54…+$199] · 68% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$46,074 NOT cap gain +$7,906 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$77 cycle +$2,177 [-$421…-$168] · 9% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$47,497 NOT cap gain +$6,483 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$79 cycle +$2,179 [-$570…-$238] · 8% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$42,490 NOT cap gain +$11,490 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$1,051 cycle +$1,049 [-$2,241…-$1,522] | 91% surv 89% | -$27,604 NOT cap gain +$26,376 |
| budget: banked $2,100 debit $1,051 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,049 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $949/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,177/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,221 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 270.3% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 17.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-18,980 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-36.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,100 | $-51,638 | +$2,342 | +$2,002 |
| +2.5% | $34.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,514 | $-50,548 | +$3,432 | +$1,416 |
| +5% | $35.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $927 | $-49,457 | +$4,523 | +$830 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-14,000 | $-23,642 | +$30,338 | -$13,048 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$458 cycle +$2,438 | 69% surv 55% | -$51,346 NOT cap gain +$2,634 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$54 cycle +$2,034 | 74% surv 64% | -$48,686 NOT cap gain +$5,294 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$307 cycle +$2,287 | 76% surv 67% | -$46,432 NOT cap gain +$7,548 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.44/sh | -$866 cycle +$1,114 | 90% surv 89% | -$29,586 NOT cap gain +$24,394 |
| budget: banked $1,980 debit $866 (44% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,114 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $825/mo while parked; 14 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,755/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,024 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 233.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 14.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-16,254 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-36.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,980 | $-51,804 | +$2,176 | +$1,896 |
| +2.5% | $33.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,485 | $-51,588 | +$2,392 | +$1,401 |
| +5% | $34.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $990 | $-50,432 | +$3,548 | +$906 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.4σ) | $-12,120 | $-21,898 | +$32,082 | -$11,304 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,878 cycle +$3,174 [+$1,322…+$2,723] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$53,811 NOT cap gain +$17,889 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$921 cycle +$2,217 [+$98…+$1,678] · 79% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$44,939 NOT cap gain +$26,761 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$231 cycle +$1,527 [-$542…+$808] · 50% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$50,514 NOT cap gain +$21,186 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$93 cycle +$1,389 [-$865…+$773] · 44% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$42,835 NOT cap gain +$28,865 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$945 cycle +$351 [-$2,090…-$394] · 20% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$39,965 NOT cap gain +$31,735 |
| budget: banked $1,296 debit $945 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$351 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $7,593/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,912/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,517 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 346.8% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 44.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-64,638 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $1,296 | $-55,688 | +$16,012 | +$1,278 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.3σ) | $-549 | $-55,531 | +$16,169 | -$567 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.4σ) | $-2,394 | $-55,373 | +$16,327 | -$2,412 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-39,078 | $-52,234 | +$19,466 | -$39,096 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,745 cycle +$3,743 [+$1,003…+$2,042] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$57,149 NOT cap gain +$14,551 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$921 cycle +$2,919 [-$108…+$1,160] · 70% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$49,122 NOT cap gain +$22,578 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$638 cycle +$2,636 [-$436…+$848] · 53% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$48,428 NOT cap gain +$23,272 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$94 cycle +$2,092 [-$876…+$208] · 32% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$53,857 NOT cap gain +$17,843 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.06/sh | -$1,901 cycle +$97 [-$3,621…-$1,967] · 3% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$40,220 NOT cap gain +$31,480 |
| budget: banked $1,998 debit $1,901 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $5,381/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,493/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,545/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,415 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 368.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 46.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-64,647 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-40.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,998 | $-58,894 | +$12,806 | +$1,980 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $243 | $-58,744 | +$12,956 | +$225 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.1σ) | $-1,512 | $-58,594 | +$13,106 | -$1,530 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-41,976 | $-55,132 | +$16,568 | -$41,994 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,727 cycle +$5,727 [+$749…+$1,512] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$61,029 NOT cap gain +$10,671 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.89/sh | +$1,786 cycle +$5,786 [+$555…+$1,436] · 93% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$56,027 NOT cap gain +$15,673 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$416 cycle +$4,416 [-$670…+$72] · 28% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$58,373 NOT cap gain +$13,327 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$269 cycle +$4,269 [-$1,170…-$188] · 20% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$52,659 NOT cap gain +$19,041 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$52 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.81/sh | -$3,621 cycle +$379 [-$6,526…-$4,634] | 91% surv 91% | -$36,032 NOT cap gain +$35,668 |
| budget: banked $4,000 debit $3,621 (91% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$379 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,472/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,048/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$60,237 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 439.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 55.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-71,810 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-38.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,000 | $-62,756 | +$8,944 | +$3,980 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,200 | $-62,798 | +$8,902 | +$2,180 |
| +5% | $37.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $400 | $-62,839 | +$8,861 | +$380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-50,860 | $-64,018 | +$7,682 | -$50,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.40/sh | +$2,806 cycle +$3,006 [+$3,207…+$5,209] · 100% credit | 70% surv 56% | -$36,394 NOT cap gain +$35,306 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$327 cycle +$527 [+$309…+$2,579] · 82% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$31,975 NOT cap gain +$39,725 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$276 cycle +$476 [+$259…+$2,923] · 82% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$22,256 NOT cap gain +$49,444 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,202/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$36,037 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 263.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 33.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-71,810 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (2.5σ) | $200 | $-39,200 | +$32,500 | +$180 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (2.7σ) | $-2,300 | $-39,258 | +$32,442 | -$2,320 |
| +5% | $52.50 (2.8σ) | $-4,800 | $-39,315 | +$32,385 | -$4,820 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-26,660 | $-39,818 | +$31,882 | -$26,680 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.36/sh | +$2,721 cycle +$2,941 [+$2,697…+$4,774] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$38,413 NOT cap gain +$33,287 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.12/sh | +$238 cycle +$458 [-$79…+$1,910] · 72% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$33,999 NOT cap gain +$37,701 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$109 cycle +$329 [-$270…+$2,070] · 70% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$24,358 NOT cap gain +$47,342 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,127/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,017 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 277.5% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 35.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-71,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.00 (2.3σ) | $220 | $-41,134 | +$30,566 | +$200 |
| +2.5% | $50.22 (2.5σ) | $-2,230 | $-41,191 | +$30,509 | -$2,250 |
| +5% | $51.45 (2.7σ) | $-4,680 | $-41,247 | +$30,453 | -$4,700 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-28,640 | $-41,798 | +$29,902 | -$28,660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.32/sh | +$2,638 cycle +$2,918 [+$2,613…+$4,895] · 99% credit | 70% surv 55% | -$40,390 NOT cap gain +$31,310 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.30/sh | +$599 cycle +$879 [+$271…+$3,063] · 83% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$27,715 NOT cap gain +$43,985 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$150 cycle +$430 [-$205…+$2,243] · 69% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$35,981 NOT cap gain +$35,719 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$54 cycle +$226 [-$472…+$2,411] · 65% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$26,414 NOT cap gain +$45,286 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,902/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,957 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 291.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 37.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-71,830 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (2.2σ) | $280 | $-43,028 | +$28,672 | +$260 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (2.4σ) | $-2,120 | $-43,084 | +$28,616 | -$2,140 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.5σ) | $-4,520 | $-43,139 | +$28,561 | -$4,540 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-30,580 | $-43,738 | +$27,962 | -$30,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.28/sh | +$2,556 cycle +$2,996 [+$2,649…+$4,531] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$42,267 NOT cap gain +$29,433 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$430 cycle +$870 [+$113…+$2,386] · 78% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$29,679 NOT cap gain +$42,021 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$64 cycle +$504 [-$292…+$1,622] · 66% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$37,861 NOT cap gain +$33,839 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.11/sh | -$212 cycle +$228 [-$668…+$1,691] · 61% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$28,366 NOT cap gain +$43,334 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,302/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,797 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 305.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 38.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-71,760 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.0σ) | $440 | $-44,822 | +$26,878 | +$420 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (2.2σ) | $-1,910 | $-44,876 | +$26,824 | -$1,930 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.4σ) | $-4,260 | $-44,930 | +$26,770 | -$4,280 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-32,420 | $-45,578 | +$26,122 | -$32,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.24/sh | +$2,475 cycle +$2,935 [+$2,376…+$4,329] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$44,282 NOT cap gain +$27,418 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$668 cycle +$1,128 [+$273…+$2,207] · 82% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$41,145 NOT cap gain +$30,555 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$264 cycle +$724 [-$267…+$2,000] · 68% credit | 80% surv 73% | -$31,778 NOT cap gain +$39,922 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$364 cycle +$96 [-$976…+$1,304] · 49% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$30,453 NOT cap gain +$41,247 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $364 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $11,378/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,725/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,227/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,777 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 319.5% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 40.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-71,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (1.9σ) | $460 | $-46,756 | +$24,944 | +$440 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.0σ) | $-1,840 | $-46,809 | +$24,891 | -$1,860 |
| +5% | $48.30 (2.2σ) | $-4,140 | $-46,862 | +$24,838 | -$4,160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-34,400 | $-47,558 | +$24,142 | -$34,420 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.20/sh | +$2,395 cycle +$3,015 [+$2,211…+$4,097] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$46,156 NOT cap gain +$25,544 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$582 cycle +$1,202 [+$120…+$1,910] · 78% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$43,024 NOT cap gain +$28,676 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$104 cycle +$724 [-$543…+$1,610] · 61% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$33,733 NOT cap gain +$37,967 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.26/sh | -$512 cycle +$108 [-$1,283…+$884] · 48% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$32,395 NOT cap gain +$39,305 |
| budget: banked $620 debit $512 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$108 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,762/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,325/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -68% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-627/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,617 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 333.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 42.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-71,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $620 | $-48,550 | +$23,150 | +$600 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (1.9σ) | $-1,630 | $-48,602 | +$23,098 | -$1,650 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.1σ) | $-3,880 | $-48,654 | +$23,046 | -$3,900 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-36,240 | $-49,398 | +$22,302 | -$36,260 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.16/sh | +$2,316 cycle +$3,116 [+$1,919…+$3,672] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$48,008 NOT cap gain +$23,692 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$499 cycle +$1,299 [-$107…+$1,554] · 70% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$44,882 NOT cap gain +$26,818 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$574 cycle +$1,374 [-$147…+$1,832] · 70% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$36,991 NOT cap gain +$34,709 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.33/sh | -$655 cycle +$145 [-$1,599…+$532] · 34% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$34,312 NOT cap gain +$37,388 |
| budget: banked $800 debit $655 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,160/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $48/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,437 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 346.3% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 44.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-71,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (1.6σ) | $800 | $-50,324 | +$21,376 | +$780 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (1.7σ) | $-1,400 | $-50,375 | +$21,325 | -$1,420 |
| +5% | $46.20 (1.9σ) | $-3,600 | $-50,426 | +$21,274 | -$3,620 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-38,060 | $-51,218 | +$20,482 | -$38,080 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.12/sh | +$2,238 cycle +$2,758 [+$1,800…+$3,554] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$50,320 NOT cap gain +$21,380 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$416 cycle +$936 [-$287…+$1,437] · 66% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$47,198 NOT cap gain +$24,502 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$413 cycle +$933 [-$443…+$1,636] · 63% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$39,386 NOT cap gain +$32,314 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$202 cycle +$318 [-$1,144…+$989] · 45% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$38,047 NOT cap gain +$33,653 |
| budget: banked $520 debit $202 (39% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$318 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,555/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,002/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,717 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 362.9% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 46.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-72,190 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.00 (1.4σ) | $520 | $-52,558 | +$19,142 | +$500 |
| +2.5% | $44.07 (1.6σ) | $-1,630 | $-52,608 | +$19,092 | -$1,650 |
| +5% | $45.15 (1.7σ) | $-3,780 | $-52,657 | +$19,043 | -$3,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-40,340 | $-53,498 | +$18,202 | -$40,360 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.01/sh | +$2,012 cycle +$3,852 [+$1,314…+$2,843] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$55,088 NOT cap gain +$16,612 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$864 cycle +$2,704 [-$154…+$1,556] · 70% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$46,408 NOT cap gain +$25,292 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$179 cycle +$2,019 [-$739…+$647] · 46% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$51,977 NOT cap gain +$19,723 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$1,170 cycle +$670 [-$2,608…-$705] · 14% credit | 83% surv 78% | -$41,603 NOT cap gain +$30,097 |
| budget: banked $1,840 debit $1,170 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$670 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,891/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | -5% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,948/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$54,397 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 397.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 50.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-71,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,840 | $-57,100 | +$14,600 | +$1,820 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $-160 | $-57,146 | +$14,554 | -$180 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.3σ) | $-2,160 | $-57,192 | +$14,508 | -$2,180 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-45,020 | $-58,178 | +$13,522 | -$45,040 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,401 cycle +$3,426 [+$750…+$1,592] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$59,418 NOT cap gain +$12,282 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,566 cycle +$3,591 [+$764…+$1,746] · 98% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$54,308 NOT cap gain +$17,392 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$418 cycle +$2,443 [-$504…+$439] · 44% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$50,572 NOT cap gain +$21,128 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$23 cycle +$2,048 [-$790…+$13] · 26% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$55,852 NOT cap gain +$15,848 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.29/sh | -$1,928 cycle +$97 [-$3,463…-$2,103] · 1% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$40,217 NOT cap gain +$31,483 |
| budget: banked $2,025 debit $1,928 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,660/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,594/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,652/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,153 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 315.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 40.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-53,918 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,025 | $-60,818 | +$10,882 | +$2,010 |
| +2.5% | $38.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $600 | $-60,387 | +$11,313 | +$585 |
| +5% | $39.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-825 | $-59,956 | +$11,744 | -$840 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-36,120 | $-49,273 | +$22,427 | -$36,135 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.92/sh | +$1,282 cycle +$3,368 [+$657…+$1,275] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$60,451 NOT cap gain +$11,249 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.01/sh | +$1,408 cycle +$3,494 [+$639…+$1,371] · 97% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$55,382 NOT cap gain +$16,318 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$378 cycle +$2,464 [-$302…+$292] · 41% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$57,389 NOT cap gain +$14,311 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$339 cycle +$2,425 [-$557…+$208] · 34% credit | 79% surv 71% | -$51,566 NOT cap gain +$20,134 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.45/sh | -$2,033 cycle +$53 [-$3,615…-$2,407] | 88% surv 87% | -$39,283 NOT cap gain +$32,417 |
| budget: banked $2,086 debit $2,033 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $2,911/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,822/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,882/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,780 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 297.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 37.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-50,393 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-39.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,086 | $-61,733 | +$9,967 | +$2,072 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $774 | $-61,214 | +$10,486 | +$760 |
| +5% | $39.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-539 | $-60,695 | +$11,005 | -$553 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-34,216 | $-47,368 | +$24,332 | -$34,230 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,078 cycle +$3,058 [+$539…+$1,056] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$61,736 NOT cap gain +$9,964 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,161 cycle +$3,141 [+$494…+$1,115] · 96% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$56,709 NOT cap gain +$14,991 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$299 cycle +$2,279 [-$307…+$216] · 38% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$58,549 NOT cap gain +$13,151 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$247 cycle +$2,227 [-$550…+$119] · 30% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$52,739 NOT cap gain +$18,961 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.46/sh | -$1,754 cycle +$226 [-$3,156…-$2,098] | 89% surv 87% | -$40,085 NOT cap gain +$31,615 |
| budget: banked $1,980 debit $1,754 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$226 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,377/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,489/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,362 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 258.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 32.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-43,104 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,980 | $-62,814 | +$8,886 | +$1,968 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $870 | $-62,117 | +$9,583 | +$858 |
| +5% | $38.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-240 | $-61,419 | +$10,281 | -$252 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-29,736 | $-42,886 | +$28,814 | -$29,748 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.88/sh | +$969 cycle +$2,960 [+$441…+$921] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$62,810 NOT cap gain +$8,890 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,023 cycle +$3,014 [+$371…+$948] · 94% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$57,813 NOT cap gain +$13,887 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$251 cycle +$2,242 [-$333…+$127] · 34% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$59,561 NOT cap gain +$12,139 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$187 cycle +$2,178 [-$584…+$6] · 26% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$53,764 NOT cap gain +$17,936 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.47/sh | -$1,618 cycle +$373 [-$2,988…-$2,021] | 89% surv 87% | -$40,914 NOT cap gain +$30,786 |
| budget: banked $1,991 debit $1,618 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$373 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,072/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,466/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,532/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,789 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 239.3% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 30.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-39,562 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-38.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,991 | $-63,779 | +$7,921 | +$1,980 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $987 | $-63,000 | +$8,700 | +$976 |
| +5% | $38.33 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-17 | $-62,221 | +$9,479 | -$28 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-27,632 | $-40,781 | +$30,919 | -$27,643 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.85/sh | +$846 cycle +$2,986 [+$352…+$693] · 96% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$64,737 NOT cap gain +$6,963 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.86/sh | +$856 cycle +$2,996 [+$226…+$660] · 91% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$59,784 NOT cap gain +$11,916 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$188 cycle +$2,328 [-$377…-$4] · 25% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$61,429 NOT cap gain +$10,271 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$100 cycle +$2,240 [-$656…-$159] · 19% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$55,655 NOT cap gain +$16,045 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.80/sh | -$1,804 cycle +$336 [-$3,316…-$2,329] | 92% surv 91% | -$37,042 NOT cap gain +$34,658 |
| budget: banked $2,140 debit $1,804 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$336 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,166/mo while parked; 10 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,093/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,479 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 222.5% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 28.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-35,930 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,140 | $-65,583 | +$6,117 | +$2,130 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,253 | $-64,737 | +$6,963 | +$1,243 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $365 | $-63,890 | +$7,810 | +$355 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-25,790 | $-38,938 | +$32,762 | -$25,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.83/sh | +$746 cycle +$2,861 [+$277…+$555] · 95% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$65,838 NOT cap gain +$5,862 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$737 cycle +$2,852 [+$133…+$476] · 86% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$60,903 NOT cap gain +$10,797 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$152 cycle +$2,267 [-$386…-$82] · 18% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$62,466 NOT cap gain +$9,234 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$59 cycle +$2,174 [-$663…-$246] · 13% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$56,697 NOT cap gain +$15,003 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.80/sh | -$1,617 cycle +$498 [-$3,059…-$2,168] | 92% surv 91% | -$37,856 NOT cap gain +$33,844 |
| budget: banked $2,115 debit $1,617 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$498 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $989/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,931/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,001/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,692 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 202.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 25.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-32,319 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,115 | $-66,584 | +$5,116 | +$2,106 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,328 | $-65,662 | +$6,038 | +$1,318 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $540 | $-64,740 | +$6,960 | +$531 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-23,472 | $-36,619 | +$35,081 | -$23,481 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.81/sh | +$650 cycle +$2,682 [+$219…+$437] · 94% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$66,993 NOT cap gain +$4,707 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.78/sh | +$627 cycle +$2,659 [+$73…+$359] · 82% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$62,073 NOT cap gain +$9,627 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$119 cycle +$2,151 [-$374…-$118] · 14% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$63,558 NOT cap gain +$8,142 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$26 cycle +$2,058 [-$640…-$290] · 10% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$57,789 NOT cap gain +$13,911 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.79/sh | -$1,431 cycle +$601 [-$2,755…-$1,957] | 92% surv 92% | -$38,729 NOT cap gain +$32,971 |
| budget: banked $2,032 debit $1,431 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$601 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $826/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,692/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,863 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 181.5% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 23.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-28,744 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-37.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,032 | $-67,643 | +$4,057 | +$2,024 |
| +2.5% | $35.36 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,342 | $-66,648 | +$5,052 | +$1,334 |
| +5% | $36.23 (≤1σ, normal week) | $652 | $-65,653 | +$6,047 | +$644 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-21,112 | $-34,258 | +$37,442 | -$21,120 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.80/sh | +$637 cycle +$2,861 [+$185…+$404] · 92% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$67,792 NOT cap gain +$3,908 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.75/sh | +$598 cycle +$2,822 [+$12…+$302] · 77% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$62,887 NOT cap gain +$8,813 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$104 cycle +$2,328 [-$419…-$159] · 12% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$64,358 NOT cap gain +$7,342 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$117 cycle +$2,341 [-$561…-$221] · 12% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$59,460 NOT cap gain +$12,240 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$1,199 cycle +$1,025 [-$2,431…-$1,692] | 90% surv 89% | -$45,144 NOT cap gain +$26,556 |
| budget: banked $2,224 debit $1,199 (54% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,025 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,150/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,340/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,412/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,071 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 183.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 23.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-28,740 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.66 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-36.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,224 | $-68,428 | +$3,272 | +$2,216 |
| +2.5% | $34.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,544 | $-67,447 | +$4,253 | +$1,536 |
| +5% | $35.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $864 | $-66,467 | +$5,233 | +$856 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-21,320 | $-34,466 | +$37,234 | -$21,328 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.78/sh | +$545 cycle +$2,645 [+$123…+$301] · 88% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$68,983 NOT cap gain +$2,717 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.71/sh | +$498 cycle +$2,598 [-$54…+$199] · 68% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$64,086 NOT cap gain +$7,614 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$77 cycle +$2,177 [-$421…-$168] · 9% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$65,484 NOT cap gain +$6,216 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$79 cycle +$2,179 [-$570…-$238] · 8% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$60,598 NOT cap gain +$11,102 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$1,051 cycle +$1,049 [-$2,241…-$1,522] | 91% surv 89% | -$46,096 NOT cap gain +$25,604 |
| budget: banked $2,100 debit $1,051 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,049 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $949/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,949/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,133 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 161.6% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 20.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-25,182 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-36.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,100 | $-69,528 | +$2,172 | +$2,093 |
| +2.5% | $34.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,514 | $-68,478 | +$3,222 | +$1,507 |
| +5% | $35.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $927 | $-67,428 | +$4,272 | +$920 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-18,851 | $-31,996 | +$39,704 | -$18,858 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$458 cycle +$2,438 | 69% surv 55% | -$69,248 NOT cap gain +$2,452 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$54 cycle +$2,034 | 74% surv 64% | -$66,662 NOT cap gain +$5,038 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$307 cycle +$2,287 | 76% surv 67% | -$64,455 NOT cap gain +$7,245 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.44/sh | -$866 cycle +$1,114 | 90% surv 89% | -$48,042 NOT cap gain +$23,658 |
| budget: banked $1,980 debit $866 (44% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,114 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $825/mo while parked; 14 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,300/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($14,600/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,501/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,091 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 139.4% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 17.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-21,570 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-36.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,980 | $-69,706 | +$1,994 | +$1,974 |
| +2.5% | $33.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,485 | $-69,507 | +$2,193 | +$1,479 |
| +5% | $34.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $990 | $-68,390 | +$3,310 | +$984 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.5σ) | $-16,278 | $-29,422 | +$42,278 | -$16,284 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$13 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$7,144 cycle +$9,544 [+$5,663…+$9,974] · 98% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$6,287 SAFE cap gain +$13,187 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$3,955 cycle +$6,355 [+$2,523…+$6,313] · 93% credit | 67% surv 54% | +$2,657 SAFE cap gain +$9,557 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$1,935 cycle +$4,335 [+$203…+$4,075] · 78% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$1,079 SAFE cap gain +$7,979 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$1,935 cycle +$4,335 [+$203…+$4,075] · 78% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$1,079 SAFE cap gain +$7,979 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$461 cycle +$1,939 [-$3,316…+$1,831] · 44% credit | 75% surv 69% | +$63 SAFE cap gain +$6,963 |
| budget: banked $2,400 debit $461 (19% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,939 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $24,424/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,200/mo) | -37% |
| vs normal income ($28,400/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,778 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 234.3% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 234.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-7,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.3σ) | $2,400 | $-1,298 | +$5,602 | +$2,200 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.5σ) | $-4,100 | $-7,350 | -$450 | -$4,300 |
| +5% | $13.65 (1.7σ) | $-10,600 | $-13,401 | -$6,501 | -$10,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (17.2σ) | $-548,600 | $-514,279 | -$507,379 | -$57,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (148 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$13 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$4,883 cycle +$7,399 [+$3,293…+$6,475] · 98% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$3,504 SAFE cap gain +$10,404 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$2,760 cycle +$5,276 [+$1,336…+$4,108] · 93% credit | 67% surv 54% | +$940 SAFE cap gain +$7,840 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,247 cycle +$3,763 [-$348…+$2,324] · 65% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$132 NOT cap gain +$6,768 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,247 cycle +$3,763 [-$348…+$2,324] · 65% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$132 NOT cap gain +$6,768 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.04/sh | -$616 cycle +$1,900 [-$3,086…+$347] · 29% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$615 NOT cap gain +$6,285 |
| budget: banked $2,516 debit $616 (24% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,900 cash · rolled 148 ct earn ≈ $16,552/mo while parked; 52 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,435/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,200/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($28,400/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,539/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,735 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 234.0% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 234.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (148 ct) | $-6,290 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.50 (1.0σ) | $2,516 | $-1,820 | +$5,080 | +$2,368 |
| +2.5% | $12.81 (1.2σ) | $-2,109 | $-6,014 | +$886 | -$2,257 |
| +5% | $13.12 (1.4σ) | $-6,734 | $-10,208 | -$3,308 | -$6,882 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (17.2σ) | $-412,624 | $-505,911 | -$499,011 | -$49,432 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (146 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$12 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.30/sh | +$4,430 cycle +$8,226 [+$2,382…+$5,205] · 97% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$3,643 SAFE cap gain +$10,543 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$2,563 cycle +$6,359 [+$767…+$3,197] · 88% credit | 67% surv 54% | +$1,334 SAFE cap gain +$8,234 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$1,053 cycle +$4,849 [-$902…+$1,571] · 51% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$267 SAFE cap gain +$7,167 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$1,053 cycle +$4,849 [-$902…+$1,571] · 51% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$267 SAFE cap gain +$7,167 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$13 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.06/sh | -$866 cycle +$2,930 [-$3,839…-$458] · 19% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$272 NOT cap gain +$6,628 |
| budget: banked $3,796 debit $866 (23% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,930 cash · rolled 146 ct earn ≈ $14,878/mo while parked; 54 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,235/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,200/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($28,400/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,343/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,374 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 285.2% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 285.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (146 ct) | $-5,402 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,796 | $-1,228 | +$5,672 | +$3,650 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-584 | $-5,194 | +$1,706 | -$730 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.1σ) | $-4,964 | $-9,160 | -$2,260 | -$5,110 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (17.2σ) | $-413,034 | $-511,229 | -$504,329 | -$54,750 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$12 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$5,553 cycle +$13,153 [+$2,412…+$5,107] · 95% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$7,826 SAFE cap gain +$14,726 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$3,297 cycle +$10,897 [+$548…+$2,875] · 84% credit | 67% surv 54% | +$5,128 SAFE cap gain +$12,028 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,208 cycle +$8,808 [-$1,801…+$571] · 33% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$3,481 SAFE cap gain +$10,381 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,208 cycle +$8,808 [-$1,801…+$571] · 33% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$3,481 SAFE cap gain +$10,381 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$13 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.38/sh | -$7,568 cycle +$32 [-$14,468…-$9,298] | 78% surv 76% | -$3,225 NOT cap gain +$3,675 |
| budget: banked $7,600 debit $7,568 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $8,381/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $28,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,200/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($28,400/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $28,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,578 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 459.8% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 459.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-7,600 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.91 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.91 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7,600 | $1,832 | +$8,732 | +$7,400 |
| +2.5% | $11.79 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,850 | $-3,522 | +$3,378 | +$1,650 |
| +5% | $12.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,900 | $-8,875 | -$1,975 | -$4,100 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (17.2σ) | $-573,400 | $-539,079 | -$532,179 | -$82,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.22/sh | +$4,423 cycle +$5,423 [+$3,629…+$8,235] · 98% credit | 67% surv 54% | +$3,105 SAFE cap gain +$10,005 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.12/sh | +$2,456 cycle +$3,456 [+$1,318…+$5,923] · 87% credit | 70% surv 58% | +$1,580 SAFE cap gain +$8,480 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$337 cycle +$1,337 [-$1,674…+$3,952] · 63% credit | 74% surv 68% | +$841 SAFE cap gain +$7,741 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,200/mo) | -74% |
| vs normal income ($28,400/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,178 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 65.3% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 65.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-7,500 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (1.9σ) | $1,000 | $-1,318 | +$5,582 | +$800 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (2.1σ) | $-6,000 | $-7,835 | -$935 | -$6,200 |
| +5% | $14.70 (2.3σ) | $-13,000 | $-14,352 | -$7,452 | -$13,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (17.2σ) | $-530,000 | $-495,679 | -$488,779 | -$39,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.39/sh | +$7,703 cycle +$9,103 [+$6,996…+$11,986] · 99% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$6,536 SAFE cap gain +$13,436 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$4,186 cycle +$5,586 [+$3,383…+$7,638] · 97% credit | 67% surv 54% | +$2,578 SAFE cap gain +$9,478 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$2,192 cycle +$3,592 [+$1,066…+$5,247] · 86% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$1,025 SAFE cap gain +$7,925 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$2,192 cycle +$3,592 [+$1,066…+$5,247] · 86% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$1,025 SAFE cap gain +$7,925 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.00/sh | -$70 cycle +$1,330 [-$1,992…+$3,237] · 56% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$143 SAFE cap gain +$7,043 |
| budget: banked $1,400 debit $70 (5% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,330 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $26,548/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,200/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($28,400/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,778 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 152.5% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 152.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-7,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.50 (1.6σ) | $1,400 | $-1,608 | +$5,292 | +$1,200 |
| +2.5% | $13.84 (1.8σ) | $-5,350 | $-7,893 | -$993 | -$5,550 |
| +5% | $14.18 (2.0σ) | $-12,100 | $-14,177 | -$7,277 | -$12,300 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (17.2σ) | $-539,600 | $-505,279 | -$498,379 | -$48,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (72 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$11 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$1,819 cycle +$5,635 [+$438…+$1,206] · 88% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$254 NOT cap gain +$6,646 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$11 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$1,112 cycle +$4,928 [-$86…+$588] · 71% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$1,402 NOT cap gain +$5,498 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$11 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$353 cycle +$4,169 [-$959…-$202] · 18% credit | 70% surv 60% | -$1,720 NOT cap gain +$5,180 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$11 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$353 cycle +$4,169 [-$959…-$202] · 18% credit | 70% surv 60% | -$1,720 NOT cap gain +$5,180 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.48/sh | -$3,452 cycle +$364 [-$6,405…-$4,525] | 91% surv 90% | -$2,075 NOT cap gain +$4,825 |
| budget: banked $3,816 debit $3,452 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$364 cash · rolled 72 ct earn ≈ $2,172/mo while parked; 128 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,310/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,200/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($28,400/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,566/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,728 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 188.4% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 188.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (72 ct) | $-2,880 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,816 | $-2,514 | +$4,386 | +$3,744 |
| +2.5% | $11.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,836 | $-4,115 | +$2,785 | +$1,764 |
| +5% | $11.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-144 | $-5,715 | +$1,185 | -$216 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (17.2σ) | $-208,944 | $-488,735 | -$481,835 | -$32,256 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$10 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$722 cycle +$4,572 | 67% surv 54% | -$2,178 NOT cap gain +$4,722 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$11 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$829 cycle +$4,679 | 72% surv 62% | -$1,629 NOT cap gain +$5,271 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.44/sh | -$2,200 cycle +$1,650 | 91% surv 90% | -$519 NOT cap gain +$6,381 |
| budget: banked $3,850 debit $2,200 (57% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,650 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $929/mo while parked; 150 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,438/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,200/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($28,400/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,738/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,694 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 142.7% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 142.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-2,050 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10.39 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $10-11.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $10.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,850 | $-2,900 | +$4,000 | +$3,800 |
| +2.5% | $10.76 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,538 | $-4,099 | +$2,801 | +$2,488 |
| +5% | $11.03 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,225 | $-5,049 | +$1,851 | +$1,175 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (17.2σ) | $-146,400 | $-480,179 | -$473,279 | -$23,700 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,008 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$9.43/sh | +$4,715 cycle +$8,515 [+$1,483…+$8,536] · 85% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$14,769 NOT cap gain +$120,668 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,033 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$143 cycle +$3,943 [-$3,844…+$3,675] · 44% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$6,104 NOT cap gain +$129,333 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,053 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$6.14/sh | -$3,070 cycle +$730 [-$7,654…+$241] · 26% credit | 79% surv 72% | +$1,273 SAFE cap gain +$136,711 |
| budget: banked $3,800 debit $3,070 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$730 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $34,115/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$960 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$20.72/sh | -$10,358 cycle -$6,558 [-$15,949…-$7,591] · 1% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$55,472 NOT cap gain +$79,965 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,683/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,727 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 60.2% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 10.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,700 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $950.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $950-968.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $968.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $960.00 (1.4σ) | $3,800 | $-45,115 | +$90,323 | -$500 |
| +2.5% | $984.00 (1.6σ) | $-8,200 | $-44,407 | +$91,031 | -$12,500 |
| +5% | $1,008.00 (1.8σ) | $-20,200 | $-43,699 | +$91,739 | -$24,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (2.0σ) | $-30,500 | $-43,091 | +$92,347 | -$34,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$978 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$9.86/sh | +$4,931 cycle +$10,631 [+$1,077…+$7,456] · 83% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$28,538 NOT cap gain +$106,899 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,003 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.78/sh | +$391 cycle +$6,091 [-$4,340…+$2,389] · 41% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$19,840 NOT cap gain +$115,597 |
| SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,043 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$11.12/sh | -$5,562 cycle +$138 [-$11,489…-$4,098] · 10% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$4,614 NOT cap gain +$130,824 |
| budget: banked $5,700 debit $5,562 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$138 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $28,735/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$930 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$19.65/sh | -$9,825 cycle -$4,125 [-$16,211…-$8,467] · 0% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$68,925 NOT cap gain +$66,513 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $21,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $20,808/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$57,827 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 77.8% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 13.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,725 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $920.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $921-941.98 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $941.98 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $930.00 (1.1σ) | $5,700 | $-59,100 | +$76,338 | +$1,400 |
| +2.5% | $953.25 (1.3σ) | $-5,925 | $-58,414 | +$77,024 | -$10,225 |
| +5% | $976.50 (1.5σ) | $-17,550 | $-57,728 | +$77,710 | -$21,850 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (2.0σ) | $-43,600 | $-56,191 | +$79,247 | -$47,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$943 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$10.26/sh | +$5,132 cycle +$14,057 [+$188…+$6,413] · 76% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$43,645 NOT cap gain +$91,792 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$968 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.27/sh | +$633 cycle +$9,558 [-$5,304…+$1,470] · 33% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$34,907 NOT cap gain +$100,531 |
| SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,038 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$17.61/sh | -$8,803 cycle +$122 [-$17,537…-$9,011] · 2% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$7,277 NOT cap gain +$128,160 |
| budget: banked $8,925 debit $8,803 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $21,904/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$895 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$18.44/sh | -$9,221 cycle -$296 [-$17,375…-$9,299] · 1% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$83,628 NOT cap gain +$51,809 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $33,469/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $32,902/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$72,102 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 97.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 17.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,750 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $886.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $886-913.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $913.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $895.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $8,925 | $-74,407 | +$61,030 | +$4,625 |
| +2.5% | $917.37 (1.0σ) | $-2,262 | $-73,747 | +$61,691 | -$6,562 |
| +5% | $939.75 (1.2σ) | $-13,450 | $-73,087 | +$62,351 | -$17,750 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (2.0σ) | $-57,875 | $-70,466 | +$64,972 | -$62,175 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$883 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$10.69/sh | +$5,347 cycle +$23,122 [-$545…+$3,135] · 69% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$66,350 NOT cap gain +$69,088 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$913 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$116 cycle +$17,891 [-$6,867…-$2,652] · 13% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$55,696 NOT cap gain +$79,742 |
| SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$835 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$16.46/sh | -$8,228 cycle +$9,547 [-$17,161…-$11,570] · 0% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$105,555 NOT cap gain +$29,882 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,048 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$27.44/sh | -$13,722 cycle +$4,053 [-$25,179…-$17,971] | 90% surv 89% | +$1,949 SAFE cap gain +$137,386 |
| budget: banked $17,775 debit $13,722 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,053 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,253/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $66,656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $66,089/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$93,252 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 125.5% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 22.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,875 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $826.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $827-871.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $871.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $835.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $17,775 | $-97,327 | +$38,110 | +$13,475 |
| +2.5% | $855.87 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7,338 | $-96,711 | +$38,726 | +$3,038 |
| +5% | $876.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,100 | $-96,095 | +$39,342 | -$7,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (2.0σ) | $-79,025 | $-91,616 | +$43,822 | -$83,325 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,280 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$33.75/sh | -$16,875 cycle -$16,825 | 60% surv 52% | +$103,700 SAFE cap gain +$239,138 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,323 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.77/sh | +$885 cycle +$935 | 73% surv 62% | +$144,443 SAFE cap gain +$279,881 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-380/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,562 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,267.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,267-1,280.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,280.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,280.00 (4.1σ) | $50 | $120,575 | +$256,013 | +$120,750 |
| +2.5% | $1,312.00 (4.4σ) | $-15,950 | $121,519 | +$256,957 | +$120,750 |
| +5% | $1,344.00 (4.6σ) | $-31,950 | $122,463 | +$257,901 | +$120,750 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,270 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$33.30/sh | -$16,648 cycle -$16,588 | 60% surv 52% | +$98,642 SAFE cap gain +$234,080 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,318 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$64 cycle +$124 | 73% surv 62% | +$140,985 SAFE cap gain +$276,423 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $225/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-342/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,558 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,257.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,257-1,270.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,270.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,270.00 (4.0σ) | $60 | $115,290 | +$250,728 | +$115,760 |
| +2.5% | $1,301.75 (4.3σ) | $-15,815 | $116,227 | +$251,665 | +$115,760 |
| +5% | $1,333.50 (4.5σ) | $-31,690 | $117,164 | +$252,601 | +$115,760 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,260 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$32.85/sh | -$16,423 cycle -$16,348 | 61% surv 52% | +$93,587 SAFE cap gain +$229,025 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,308 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.57/sh | +$283 cycle +$358 | 73% surv 63% | +$135,924 SAFE cap gain +$271,362 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $281/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-286/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,562 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,247.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,247-1,260.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,260.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,260.00 (3.9σ) | $75 | $110,010 | +$245,448 | +$110,775 |
| +2.5% | $1,291.50 (4.2σ) | $-15,675 | $110,940 | +$246,377 | +$110,775 |
| +5% | $1,323.00 (4.5σ) | $-31,425 | $111,869 | +$247,306 | +$110,775 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,250 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$32.40/sh | -$16,199 cycle -$16,109 | 61% surv 52% | +$88,531 SAFE cap gain +$223,969 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,298 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.00/sh | +$498 cycle +$588 | 73% surv 63% | +$130,859 SAFE cap gain +$266,296 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $338/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-230/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,518 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,237.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,238-1,250.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,250.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,250.00 (3.8σ) | $90 | $104,730 | +$240,168 | +$105,790 |
| +2.5% | $1,281.25 (4.1σ) | $-15,535 | $105,652 | +$241,090 | +$105,790 |
| +5% | $1,312.50 (4.4σ) | $-31,160 | $106,574 | +$242,012 | +$105,790 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,240 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$31.95/sh | -$15,977 cycle -$15,872 | 61% surv 52% | +$83,474 SAFE cap gain +$218,911 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,288 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.42/sh | +$708 cycle +$813 | 73% surv 63% | +$125,789 SAFE cap gain +$261,226 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $394/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-173/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,585 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,227.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,228-1,240.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,240.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,240.00 (3.8σ) | $105 | $99,450 | +$234,888 | +$100,805 |
| +2.5% | $1,271.00 (4.0σ) | $-15,395 | $100,365 | +$235,802 | +$100,805 |
| +5% | $1,302.00 (4.3σ) | $-30,895 | $101,279 | +$236,717 | +$100,805 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,230 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$31.51/sh | -$15,756 cycle -$15,636 | 61% surv 52% | +$78,415 SAFE cap gain +$213,852 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,278 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.83/sh | +$913 cycle +$1,033 | 73% surv 63% | +$120,714 SAFE cap gain +$256,152 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-117/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,585 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,217.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,218-1,230.54 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,230.54 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,230.00 (3.7σ) | $120 | $94,170 | +$229,608 | +$95,820 |
| +2.5% | $1,260.75 (3.9σ) | $-15,255 | $95,078 | +$230,515 | +$95,820 |
| +5% | $1,291.50 (4.2σ) | $-30,630 | $95,985 | +$231,422 | +$95,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,220 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$31.07/sh | -$15,536 cycle -$15,401 | 61% surv 52% | +$73,354 SAFE cap gain +$208,792 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,273 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$129 cycle +$264 | 74% surv 64% | +$117,297 SAFE cap gain +$252,735 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $506/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-61/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,560 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,207.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,208-1,220.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,220.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $135 | $88,890 | +$224,328 | +$90,835 |
| +2.5% | $1,250.50 (3.8σ) | $-15,115 | $89,790 | +$225,228 | +$90,835 |
| +5% | $1,281.00 (4.1σ) | $-30,365 | $90,690 | +$226,127 | +$90,835 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,210 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$30.64/sh | -$15,318 cycle -$15,178 | 61% surv 52% | +$68,282 SAFE cap gain +$203,720 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,263 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.65/sh | +$326 cycle +$466 | 74% surv 64% | +$112,204 SAFE cap gain +$247,642 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $525/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-42/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,590 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,197.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,198-1,210.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,210.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,210.00 (3.5σ) | $140 | $83,600 | +$219,038 | +$85,840 |
| +2.5% | $1,240.25 (3.8σ) | $-14,985 | $84,493 | +$219,930 | +$85,840 |
| +5% | $1,270.50 (4.0σ) | $-30,110 | $85,385 | +$220,823 | +$85,840 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,200 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$30.20/sh | -$15,102 cycle -$14,877 | 61% surv 52% | +$63,288 SAFE cap gain +$198,726 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,253 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.04/sh | +$519 cycle +$744 | 74% surv 64% | +$107,187 SAFE cap gain +$242,625 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $844/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $277/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,512 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,188.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,188-1,200.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,200.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,200.00 (3.4σ) | $225 | $78,390 | +$213,828 | +$80,925 |
| +2.5% | $1,230.00 (3.7σ) | $-14,775 | $79,275 | +$214,713 | +$80,925 |
| +5% | $1,260.00 (3.9σ) | $-29,775 | $80,160 | +$215,598 | +$80,925 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,190 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$29.77/sh | -$14,887 cycle -$14,712 | 61% surv 52% | +$58,158 SAFE cap gain +$193,596 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,243 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.41/sh | +$707 cycle +$882 | 74% surv 64% | +$102,030 SAFE cap gain +$237,468 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $89/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,592 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,178.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,178-1,190.66 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,190.66 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,190.00 (3.3σ) | $175 | $73,045 | +$208,483 | +$75,875 |
| +2.5% | $1,219.75 (3.6σ) | $-14,700 | $73,923 | +$209,361 | +$75,875 |
| +5% | $1,249.50 (3.8σ) | $-29,575 | $74,801 | +$210,238 | +$75,875 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,180 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$29.35/sh | -$14,674 cycle -$14,474 | 61% surv 52% | +$53,102 SAFE cap gain +$188,539 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,233 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.78/sh | +$890 cycle +$1,090 | 74% surv 64% | +$96,944 SAFE cap gain +$232,381 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $183/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,592 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,168.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,168-1,180.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,180.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,180.00 (3.2σ) | $200 | $67,775 | +$203,213 | +$70,900 |
| +2.5% | $1,209.50 (3.5σ) | $-14,550 | $68,646 | +$204,083 | +$70,900 |
| +5% | $1,239.00 (3.7σ) | $-29,300 | $69,516 | +$204,953 | +$70,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,170 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$28.92/sh | -$14,462 cycle -$14,232 | 61% surv 52% | +$48,049 SAFE cap gain +$183,486 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,228 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$88 cycle +$318 | 74% surv 65% | +$93,524 SAFE cap gain +$228,962 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $862/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $296/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,590 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,158.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,158-1,170.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,170.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,170.00 (3.2σ) | $230 | $62,510 | +$197,948 | +$65,930 |
| +2.5% | $1,199.25 (3.4σ) | $-14,395 | $63,373 | +$198,811 | +$65,930 |
| +5% | $1,228.50 (3.7σ) | $-29,020 | $64,236 | +$199,674 | +$65,930 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,160 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$28.50/sh | -$14,251 cycle -$13,991 | 61% surv 52% | +$42,994 SAFE cap gain +$178,432 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,218 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.53/sh | +$264 cycle +$524 | 74% surv 65% | +$88,435 SAFE cap gain +$223,872 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $975/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $408/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,578 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,148.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,148-1,160.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,160.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,160.00 (3.1σ) | $260 | $57,245 | +$192,683 | +$60,960 |
| +2.5% | $1,189.00 (3.3σ) | $-14,240 | $58,101 | +$193,538 | +$60,960 |
| +5% | $1,218.00 (3.6σ) | $-28,740 | $58,956 | +$194,394 | +$60,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,150 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$28.08/sh | -$14,042 cycle -$13,682 | 61% surv 52% | +$38,008 SAFE cap gain +$173,446 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,208 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.87/sh | +$435 cycle +$795 | 74% surv 65% | +$83,411 SAFE cap gain +$218,848 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,350/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $783/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,538 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,138.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,138-1,150.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,150.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,150.00 (3.0σ) | $360 | $52,050 | +$187,488 | +$56,060 |
| +2.5% | $1,178.75 (3.2σ) | $-14,015 | $52,899 | +$188,336 | +$56,060 |
| +5% | $1,207.50 (3.5σ) | $-28,390 | $53,747 | +$189,184 | +$56,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,140 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$27.67/sh | -$13,835 cycle -$13,500 | 61% surv 52% | +$32,895 SAFE cap gain +$168,333 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,198 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.20/sh | +$602 cycle +$937 | 74% surv 65% | +$78,257 SAFE cap gain +$213,695 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,256/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $689/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,572 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,128.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,129-1,140.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,140.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,140.00 (2.9σ) | $335 | $46,730 | +$182,168 | +$51,035 |
| +2.5% | $1,168.50 (3.1σ) | $-13,915 | $47,571 | +$183,009 | +$51,035 |
| +5% | $1,197.00 (3.4σ) | $-28,165 | $48,412 | +$183,849 | +$51,035 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,135 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$27.46/sh | -$13,732 cycle -$13,377 | 61% surv 52% | +$30,371 SAFE cap gain +$165,809 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,193 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.37/sh | +$683 cycle +$1,038 | 74% surv 65% | +$75,711 SAFE cap gain +$211,149 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,331/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $764/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,592 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,123.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,124-1,136.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,136.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,135.00 (2.9σ) | $355 | $44,103 | +$179,540 | +$48,555 |
| +2.5% | $1,163.38 (3.1σ) | $-13,832 | $44,940 | +$180,378 | +$48,555 |
| +5% | $1,191.75 (3.3σ) | $-28,020 | $45,777 | +$181,215 | +$48,555 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,130 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$27.26/sh | -$13,629 cycle -$13,249 | 61% surv 52% | +$27,851 SAFE cap gain +$163,289 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,188 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.53/sh | +$764 cycle +$1,144 | 74% surv 65% | +$73,169 SAFE cap gain +$208,607 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $858/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,592 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,118.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,119-1,131.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,131.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,130.00 (2.8σ) | $380 | $41,480 | +$176,918 | +$46,080 |
| +2.5% | $1,158.25 (3.1σ) | $-13,745 | $42,314 | +$177,751 | +$46,080 |
| +5% | $1,186.50 (3.3σ) | $-27,870 | $43,147 | +$178,585 | +$46,080 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,125 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$27.05/sh | -$13,527 cycle -$13,122 | 61% surv 52% | +$25,331 SAFE cap gain +$160,769 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,183 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.69/sh | +$843 cycle +$1,248 | 74% surv 65% | +$70,626 SAFE cap gain +$206,064 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,519/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $952/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,590 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,113.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,114-1,126.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,126.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,125.00 (2.8σ) | $405 | $38,858 | +$174,295 | +$43,605 |
| +2.5% | $1,153.12 (3.0σ) | $-13,658 | $39,688 | +$175,125 | +$43,605 |
| +5% | $1,181.25 (3.3σ) | $-27,720 | $40,517 | +$175,955 | +$43,605 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,120 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.85/sh | -$13,425 cycle -$12,995 | 61% surv 52% | +$22,811 SAFE cap gain +$158,248 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.84/sh | +$921 cycle +$1,351 | 74% surv 65% | +$68,082 SAFE cap gain +$203,519 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,612/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,046/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,575 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,108.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,109-1,121.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,121.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,120.00 (2.7σ) | $430 | $36,235 | +$171,673 | +$41,130 |
| +2.5% | $1,148.00 (3.0σ) | $-13,570 | $37,061 | +$172,499 | +$41,130 |
| +5% | $1,176.00 (3.2σ) | $-27,570 | $37,887 | +$173,325 | +$41,130 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,163 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$5.89/sh | +$2,943 cycle +$3,418 [+$2,346…+$11,720] · 83% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$62,206 SAFE cap gain +$197,643 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$50 cycle +$525 [-$1,270…+$8,390] · 66% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$67,256 SAFE cap gain +$202,694 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,115 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.65/sh | -$13,323 cycle -$12,848 [-$17,087…-$5,872] | 61% surv 52% | +$20,310 SAFE cap gain +$155,747 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,781/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,214/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,582 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,103.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,104-1,116.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,116.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,115.00 (2.7σ) | $475 | $33,633 | +$169,070 | +$38,675 |
| +2.5% | $1,142.88 (2.9σ) | $-13,462 | $34,455 | +$169,893 | +$38,675 |
| +5% | $1,170.75 (3.2σ) | $-27,400 | $35,278 | +$170,715 | +$38,675 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,158 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.03/sh | +$3,017 cycle +$3,512 [-$78…+$11,422] · 73% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$59,653 SAFE cap gain +$195,090 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,173 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$127 cycle +$622 [-$3,698…+$8,317] · 58% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$64,705 SAFE cap gain +$200,143 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,110 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.44/sh | -$13,222 cycle -$12,727 [-$19,722…-$5,884] | 61% surv 52% | +$17,784 SAFE cap gain +$153,221 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,856/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,289/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,562 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,098.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,099-1,111.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,111.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,110.00 (2.7σ) | $495 | $31,005 | +$166,443 | +$36,195 |
| +2.5% | $1,137.75 (2.9σ) | $-13,380 | $31,824 | +$167,262 | +$36,195 |
| +5% | $1,165.50 (3.1σ) | $-27,255 | $32,643 | +$168,080 | +$36,195 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,153 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.18/sh | +$3,090 cycle +$3,610 [+$3,300…+$12,238] · 89% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$57,104 SAFE cap gain +$192,541 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,168 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.40/sh | +$202 cycle +$722 [+$192…+$9,018] · 76% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$62,158 SAFE cap gain +$197,596 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,105 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.24/sh | -$13,121 cycle -$12,601 [-$15,157…-$4,870] | 61% surv 52% | +$15,262 SAFE cap gain +$150,700 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,383/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,568 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,093.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,094-1,106.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,106.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,105.00 (2.6σ) | $520 | $28,383 | +$163,820 | +$33,720 |
| +2.5% | $1,132.62 (2.8σ) | $-13,292 | $29,198 | +$164,635 | +$33,720 |
| +5% | $1,160.25 (3.1σ) | $-27,105 | $30,013 | +$165,450 | +$33,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,148 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.32/sh | +$3,162 cycle +$3,742 [+$1,703…+$11,420] · 83% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$54,588 SAFE cap gain +$190,026 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,163 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$277 cycle +$857 [-$1,781…+$8,068] · 67% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$59,645 SAFE cap gain +$195,083 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,100 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.04/sh | -$13,020 cycle -$12,440 [-$17,421…-$6,944] | 61% surv 52% | +$12,775 SAFE cap gain +$148,213 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,175/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,608/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,570 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,089.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,089-1,101.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,101.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,100.00 (2.6σ) | $580 | $25,795 | +$161,233 | +$31,280 |
| +2.5% | $1,127.50 (2.8σ) | $-13,170 | $26,607 | +$162,044 | +$31,280 |
| +5% | $1,155.00 (3.0σ) | $-26,920 | $27,418 | +$162,855 | +$31,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,143 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.47/sh | +$3,233 cycle +$3,828 [+$2,417…+$12,201] · 82% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$52,027 SAFE cap gain +$187,464 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,158 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.70/sh | +$350 cycle +$945 [-$1,134…+$9,196] · 68% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$57,086 SAFE cap gain +$192,523 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,095 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$25.84/sh | -$12,920 cycle -$12,325 [-$17,656…-$4,630] | 61% surv 52% | +$10,243 SAFE cap gain +$145,680 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,231/mo |
| vs 50% target ($32,027/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($64,055/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,664/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-135,588 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,084.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,084-1,096.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,096.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,095.00 (2.5σ) | $595 | $23,163 | +$158,600 | +$28,795 |
| +2.5% | $1,122.38 (2.8σ) | $-13,092 | $23,971 | +$159,408 | +$28,795 |
| +5% | $1,149.75 (3.0σ) | $-26,780 | $24,778 | +$160,216 | +$28,795 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,008 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$9.43/sh | +$1,886 cycle +$3,406 [+$706…+$3,434] · 86% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$45,673 NOT cap gain +$47,547 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,033 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$57 cycle +$1,577 [-$1,459…+$1,378] · 47% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$42,292 NOT cap gain +$50,928 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,053 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$6.14/sh | -$1,228 cycle +$292 [-$2,990…-$48] · 25% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$39,409 NOT cap gain +$53,811 |
| budget: banked $1,520 debit $1,228 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$292 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $13,646/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$960 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$20.72/sh | -$4,143 cycle -$2,623 [-$6,349…-$3,110] · 1% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$61,789 NOT cap gain +$31,431 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,204/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$56,027 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 112.1% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 28.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,325 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $950.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $950-968.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $968.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $960.00 (1.4σ) | $1,520 | $-57,646 | +$35,574 | +$1,214 |
| +2.5% | $984.00 (1.6σ) | $-3,280 | $-57,445 | +$35,775 | -$3,586 |
| +5% | $1,008.00 (1.8σ) | $-8,080 | $-57,243 | +$35,977 | -$8,386 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-50,480 | $-55,462 | +$37,758 | -$50,786 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$978 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$9.86/sh | +$1,972 cycle +$4,252 [+$386…+$3,076] · 82% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$51,078 NOT cap gain +$42,142 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,003 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.78/sh | +$157 cycle +$2,437 [-$1,784…+$957] · 38% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$47,684 NOT cap gain +$45,536 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,043 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$11.12/sh | -$2,225 cycle +$55 [-$4,698…-$1,536] · 12% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$41,730 NOT cap gain +$51,490 |
| budget: banked $2,280 debit $2,225 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $11,494/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$930 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$19.65/sh | -$3,930 cycle -$1,650 [-$6,606…-$3,304] · 2% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$67,068 NOT cap gain +$26,152 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,550/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,054/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$61,267 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 122.5% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 30.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,335 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $920.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $921-941.98 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $941.98 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $930.00 (1.1σ) | $2,280 | $-63,138 | +$30,082 | +$1,974 |
| +2.5% | $953.25 (1.3σ) | $-2,370 | $-62,943 | +$30,277 | -$2,676 |
| +5% | $976.50 (1.5σ) | $-7,020 | $-62,748 | +$30,472 | -$7,326 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-55,720 | $-60,702 | +$32,518 | -$56,026 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$943 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$10.26/sh | +$2,053 cycle +$5,623 [+$156…+$2,482] · 79% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$57,002 NOT cap gain +$36,218 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$968 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.27/sh | +$253 cycle +$3,823 [-$1,946…+$440] · 34% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$53,592 NOT cap gain +$39,628 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,038 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$17.61/sh | -$3,521 cycle +$49 [-$6,737…-$3,687] · 2% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$42,778 NOT cap gain +$50,442 |
| budget: banked $3,570 debit $3,521 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$49 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,761/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$895 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$18.44/sh | -$3,688 cycle -$118 [-$6,684…-$3,774] · 1% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$72,831 NOT cap gain +$20,389 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,388/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,891/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$66,977 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 134.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 33.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,345 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $886.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $886-913.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $913.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $895.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,570 | $-69,142 | +$24,078 | +$3,264 |
| +2.5% | $917.37 (1.0σ) | $-905 | $-68,954 | +$24,266 | -$1,211 |
| +5% | $939.75 (1.2σ) | $-5,380 | $-68,766 | +$24,454 | -$5,686 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-61,430 | $-66,412 | +$26,808 | -$61,736 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$883 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$10.69/sh | +$2,139 cycle +$9,249 [-$262…+$1,373] · 68% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$65,880 NOT cap gain +$27,340 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$913 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$46 cycle +$7,156 [-$2,871…-$966] · 14% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$61,720 NOT cap gain +$31,500 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$835 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$16.46/sh | -$3,291 cycle +$3,819 [-$7,029…-$4,525] · 1% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$81,398 NOT cap gain +$11,822 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,048 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$27.44/sh | -$5,489 cycle +$1,621 [-$10,326…-$7,101] | 90% surv 89% | -$39,122 NOT cap gain +$54,098 |
| budget: banked $7,110 debit $5,489 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,621 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,501/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $26,662/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $26,166/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$75,437 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 150.9% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 38.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,395 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $826.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $827-871.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $871.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $835.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7,110 | $-78,106 | +$15,114 | +$6,804 |
| +2.5% | $855.87 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,935 | $-77,931 | +$15,289 | +$2,629 |
| +5% | $876.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,240 | $-77,756 | +$15,464 | -$1,546 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-69,890 | $-74,872 | +$18,348 | -$70,196 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,280 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$33.75/sh | -$6,750 cycle -$6,730 | 60% surv 52% | +$791 SAFE cap gain +$94,011 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,323 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.77/sh | +$354 cycle +$374 | 73% surv 62% | +$16,941 SAFE cap gain +$110,161 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $75/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-421/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,270 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,267.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,267-1,280.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,280.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,280.00 (4.1σ) | $20 | $7,542 | +$100,762 | +$11,714 |
| +2.5% | $1,312.00 (4.4σ) | $-6,380 | $7,810 | +$101,030 | +$11,714 |
| +5% | $1,344.00 (4.6σ) | $-12,780 | $8,079 | +$101,299 | +$11,714 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,270 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$33.30/sh | -$6,659 cycle -$6,635 | 60% surv 52% | -$1,198 NOT cap gain +$92,022 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,318 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$26 cycle +$50 | 73% surv 62% | +$15,575 SAFE cap gain +$108,795 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $90/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-406/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,268 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,257.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,257-1,270.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,270.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,270.00 (4.0σ) | $24 | $5,462 | +$98,682 | +$9,718 |
| +2.5% | $1,301.75 (4.3σ) | $-6,326 | $5,728 | +$98,948 | +$9,718 |
| +5% | $1,333.50 (4.5σ) | $-12,676 | $5,995 | +$99,215 | +$9,718 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,260 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$32.85/sh | -$6,569 cycle -$6,539 | 61% surv 52% | -$3,186 NOT cap gain +$90,034 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,308 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.57/sh | +$113 cycle +$143 | 73% surv 63% | +$13,585 SAFE cap gain +$106,805 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-384/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,270 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,247.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,247-1,260.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,260.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,260.00 (3.9σ) | $30 | $3,384 | +$96,604 | +$7,724 |
| +2.5% | $1,291.50 (4.2σ) | $-6,270 | $3,648 | +$96,868 | +$7,724 |
| +5% | $1,323.00 (4.5σ) | $-12,570 | $3,913 | +$97,133 | +$7,724 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,250 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$32.40/sh | -$6,480 cycle -$6,444 | 61% surv 52% | -$5,174 NOT cap gain +$88,046 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,298 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.00/sh | +$199 cycle +$235 | 73% surv 63% | +$11,592 SAFE cap gain +$104,812 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $135/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-361/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,252 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,237.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,238-1,250.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,250.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,250.00 (3.8σ) | $36 | $1,306 | +$94,526 | +$5,730 |
| +2.5% | $1,281.25 (4.1σ) | $-6,214 | $1,568 | +$94,788 | +$5,730 |
| +5% | $1,312.50 (4.4σ) | $-12,464 | $1,831 | +$95,051 | +$5,730 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,240 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$31.95/sh | -$6,391 cycle -$6,349 | 61% surv 52% | -$7,163 NOT cap gain +$86,057 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,288 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.42/sh | +$283 cycle +$325 | 73% surv 63% | +$9,598 SAFE cap gain +$102,818 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $158/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-339/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,505 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 3.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 0.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,279 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,227.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,228-1,240.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,240.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,240.00 (3.8σ) | $42 | $-772 | +$92,448 | +$3,736 |
| +2.5% | $1,271.00 (4.0σ) | $-6,158 | $-512 | +$92,708 | +$3,736 |
| +5% | $1,302.00 (4.3σ) | $-12,358 | $-252 | +$92,968 | +$3,736 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,230 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$31.51/sh | -$6,302 cycle -$6,254 | 61% surv 52% | -$9,153 NOT cap gain +$84,067 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,278 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.83/sh | +$365 cycle +$413 | 73% surv 63% | +$7,603 SAFE cap gain +$100,823 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $180/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-316/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,499 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 7.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 1.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,279 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,217.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,218-1,230.54 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,230.54 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,230.00 (3.7σ) | $48 | $-2,850 | +$90,370 | +$1,742 |
| +2.5% | $1,260.75 (3.9σ) | $-6,102 | $-2,592 | +$90,628 | +$1,742 |
| +5% | $1,291.50 (4.2σ) | $-12,252 | $-2,334 | +$90,886 | +$1,742 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,220 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$31.07/sh | -$6,215 cycle -$6,161 | 61% surv 52% | -$11,143 NOT cap gain +$82,077 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,273 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$51 cycle +$105 | 74% surv 64% | +$6,253 SAFE cap gain +$99,473 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $203/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-294/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,493 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 11.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 2.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,269 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,207.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,208-1,220.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,220.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $54 | $-4,928 | +$88,292 | -$252 |
| +2.5% | $1,250.50 (3.8σ) | $-6,046 | $-4,672 | +$88,548 | -$252 |
| +5% | $1,281.00 (4.1σ) | $-12,146 | $-4,416 | +$88,804 | -$252 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,210 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$30.64/sh | -$6,127 cycle -$6,071 | 61% surv 52% | -$13,138 NOT cap gain +$80,082 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,263 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.65/sh | +$130 cycle +$186 | 74% surv 64% | +$4,250 SAFE cap gain +$97,470 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $210/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-286/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,491 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 15.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 3.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,281 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,197.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,198-1,210.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,210.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,210.00 (3.5σ) | $56 | $-7,010 | +$86,210 | -$250 |
| +2.5% | $1,240.25 (3.8σ) | $-5,994 | $-6,756 | +$86,464 | -$2,250 |
| +5% | $1,270.50 (4.0σ) | $-12,044 | $-6,502 | +$86,718 | -$2,250 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,200 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$30.20/sh | -$6,041 cycle -$5,951 | 61% surv 52% | -$15,101 NOT cap gain +$78,119 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,253 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.04/sh | +$207 cycle +$297 | 74% surv 64% | +$2,277 SAFE cap gain +$95,497 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $338/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-159/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,457 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 18.9% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 4.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,188.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,188-1,200.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,200.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,200.00 (3.4σ) | $90 | $-9,060 | +$84,160 | -$216 |
| +2.5% | $1,230.00 (3.7σ) | $-5,910 | $-8,808 | +$84,412 | -$4,216 |
| +5% | $1,260.00 (3.9σ) | $-11,910 | $-8,556 | +$84,664 | -$4,216 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,190 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$29.77/sh | -$5,955 cycle -$5,885 | 61% surv 52% | -$17,119 NOT cap gain +$76,101 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,243 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.41/sh | +$283 cycle +$353 | 74% surv 64% | +$248 SAFE cap gain +$93,468 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $262/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-234/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,477 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 23.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 5.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,282 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,178.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,178-1,190.66 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,190.66 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,190.00 (3.3σ) | $70 | $-11,164 | +$82,056 | -$236 |
| +2.5% | $1,219.75 (3.6σ) | $-5,880 | $-10,914 | +$82,306 | -$6,186 |
| +5% | $1,249.50 (3.8σ) | $-11,830 | $-10,665 | +$82,555 | -$6,236 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,180 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$29.35/sh | -$5,869 cycle -$5,789 | 61% surv 52% | -$19,108 NOT cap gain +$74,112 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,233 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.78/sh | +$356 cycle +$436 | 74% surv 64% | -$1,753 NOT cap gain +$91,467 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-196/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,467 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 26.9% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 6.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,282 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,168.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,168-1,180.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,180.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,180.00 (3.2σ) | $80 | $-13,238 | +$79,982 | -$226 |
| +2.5% | $1,209.50 (3.5σ) | $-5,820 | $-12,991 | +$80,229 | -$6,126 |
| +5% | $1,239.00 (3.7σ) | $-11,720 | $-12,743 | +$80,477 | -$8,226 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,170 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$28.92/sh | -$5,785 cycle -$5,693 | 61% surv 52% | -$21,095 NOT cap gain +$72,125 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,228 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$35 cycle +$127 | 74% surv 65% | -$3,104 NOT cap gain +$90,116 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $345/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-151/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,455 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 30.9% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 7.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,281 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,158.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,158-1,170.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,170.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,170.00 (3.2σ) | $92 | $-15,310 | +$77,910 | -$214 |
| +2.5% | $1,199.25 (3.4σ) | $-5,758 | $-15,065 | +$78,155 | -$6,064 |
| +5% | $1,228.50 (3.7σ) | $-11,608 | $-14,819 | +$78,401 | -$10,214 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,160 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$28.50/sh | -$5,701 cycle -$5,597 | 61% surv 52% | -$23,083 NOT cap gain +$70,137 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,218 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.53/sh | +$106 cycle +$210 | 74% surv 65% | -$5,105 NOT cap gain +$88,115 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $390/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-106/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,443 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 34.9% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 8.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,276 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,148.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,148-1,160.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,160.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,160.00 (3.1σ) | $104 | $-17,382 | +$75,838 | -$202 |
| +2.5% | $1,189.00 (3.3σ) | $-5,696 | $-17,139 | +$76,081 | -$6,002 |
| +5% | $1,218.00 (3.6σ) | $-11,496 | $-16,895 | +$76,325 | -$11,802 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-11,896 | $-16,878 | +$76,342 | -$12,202 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,150 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$28.08/sh | -$5,617 cycle -$5,473 | 61% surv 52% | -$25,043 NOT cap gain +$68,177 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,208 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.87/sh | +$174 cycle +$318 | 74% surv 65% | -$7,081 NOT cap gain +$86,139 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $540/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $44/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,403 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 38.8% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 9.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,260 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,138.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,138-1,150.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,150.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,150.00 (3.0σ) | $144 | $-19,426 | +$73,794 | -$162 |
| +2.5% | $1,178.75 (3.2σ) | $-5,606 | $-19,185 | +$74,035 | -$5,912 |
| +5% | $1,207.50 (3.5σ) | $-11,356 | $-18,943 | +$74,277 | -$11,662 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-13,856 | $-18,838 | +$74,382 | -$14,162 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,140 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$27.67/sh | -$5,534 cycle -$5,400 | 61% surv 52% | -$27,054 NOT cap gain +$66,166 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,198 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.20/sh | +$241 cycle +$375 | 74% surv 65% | -$9,108 NOT cap gain +$84,112 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $503/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,413 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 42.8% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 10.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,274 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,128.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,129-1,140.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,140.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,140.00 (2.9σ) | $134 | $-21,520 | +$71,700 | -$172 |
| +2.5% | $1,168.50 (3.1σ) | $-5,566 | $-21,281 | +$71,939 | -$5,872 |
| +5% | $1,197.00 (3.4σ) | $-11,266 | $-21,042 | +$72,178 | -$11,572 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-15,866 | $-20,848 | +$72,372 | -$16,172 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,135 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$27.46/sh | -$5,493 cycle -$5,351 | 61% surv 52% | -$28,047 NOT cap gain +$65,173 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,193 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.37/sh | +$273 cycle +$415 | 74% surv 65% | -$10,110 NOT cap gain +$83,110 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $532/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $36/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,405 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 44.8% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 11.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,282 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,123.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,124-1,136.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,136.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,135.00 (2.9σ) | $142 | $-22,554 | +$70,666 | -$164 |
| +2.5% | $1,163.38 (3.1σ) | $-5,533 | $-22,316 | +$70,904 | -$5,839 |
| +5% | $1,191.75 (3.3σ) | $-11,208 | $-22,078 | +$71,142 | -$11,514 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-16,858 | $-21,840 | +$71,380 | -$17,164 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,130 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$27.26/sh | -$5,452 cycle -$5,300 | 61% surv 52% | -$29,038 NOT cap gain +$64,182 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,188 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.53/sh | +$305 cycle +$457 | 74% surv 65% | -$11,109 NOT cap gain +$82,111 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $570/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $74/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,395 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 46.8% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 11.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,282 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,118.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,119-1,131.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,131.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,130.00 (2.8σ) | $152 | $-23,586 | +$69,634 | -$154 |
| +2.5% | $1,158.25 (3.1σ) | $-5,498 | $-23,349 | +$69,871 | -$5,804 |
| +5% | $1,186.50 (3.3σ) | $-11,148 | $-23,112 | +$70,108 | -$11,454 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-17,848 | $-22,830 | +$70,390 | -$18,154 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,183 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.69/sh | +$337 cycle +$499 [+$628…+$4,018] · 81% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$12,110 NOT cap gain +$81,110 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,203 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$5.61/sh | -$1,121 cycle -$959 [-$1,307…+$2,512] · 60% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$9,400 NOT cap gain +$83,820 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,125 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$27.05/sh | -$5,411 cycle -$5,249 [-$6,071…-$1,948] | 61% surv 52% | -$30,029 NOT cap gain +$63,191 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $608/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $111/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,385 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 48.8% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 12.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,281 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,113.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,114-1,126.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,126.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,125.00 (2.8σ) | $162 | $-24,618 | +$68,602 | -$144 |
| +2.5% | $1,153.12 (3.0σ) | $-5,463 | $-24,382 | +$68,838 | -$5,769 |
| +5% | $1,181.25 (3.3σ) | $-11,088 | $-24,146 | +$69,074 | -$11,394 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-18,838 | $-23,820 | +$69,400 | -$19,144 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,120 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.85/sh | -$5,370 cycle -$5,198 | 61% surv 52% | -$31,020 NOT cap gain +$62,200 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.84/sh | +$368 cycle +$540 | 74% surv 65% | -$13,110 NOT cap gain +$80,110 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $645/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $149/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,375 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 50.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 12.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,275 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,108.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,109-1,121.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,121.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,120.00 (2.7σ) | $172 | $-25,650 | +$67,570 | -$134 |
| +2.5% | $1,148.00 (3.0σ) | $-5,428 | $-25,415 | +$67,805 | -$5,734 |
| +5% | $1,176.00 (3.2σ) | $-11,028 | $-25,180 | +$68,040 | -$11,334 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-19,828 | $-24,810 | +$68,410 | -$20,134 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,115 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.65/sh | -$5,329 cycle -$5,139 | 61% surv 52% | -$32,004 NOT cap gain +$61,216 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$20 cycle +$210 | 75% surv 66% | -$13,441 NOT cap gain +$79,779 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $712/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $216/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,357 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 52.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 13.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,278 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,103.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,104-1,116.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,116.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,115.00 (2.7σ) | $190 | $-26,674 | +$66,546 | -$116 |
| +2.5% | $1,142.88 (2.9σ) | $-5,385 | $-26,440 | +$66,780 | -$5,691 |
| +5% | $1,170.75 (3.2σ) | $-10,960 | $-26,206 | +$67,014 | -$11,266 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-20,810 | $-25,792 | +$67,428 | -$21,116 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,158 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.03/sh | +$1,207 cycle +$1,405 [+$243…+$4,410] · 80% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$16,414 NOT cap gain +$76,806 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,173 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$51 cycle +$249 [-$1,106…+$3,052] · 60% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$14,444 NOT cap gain +$78,776 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,110 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.44/sh | -$5,289 cycle -$5,091 [-$7,515…-$3,019] | 61% surv 52% | -$32,997 NOT cap gain +$60,223 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $742/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $246/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,349 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 54.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 13.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,270 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,098.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,099-1,111.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,111.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,110.00 (2.7σ) | $198 | $-27,708 | +$65,512 | -$108 |
| +2.5% | $1,137.75 (2.9σ) | $-5,352 | $-27,475 | +$65,745 | -$5,658 |
| +5% | $1,165.50 (3.1σ) | $-10,902 | $-27,242 | +$65,978 | -$11,208 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-21,802 | $-26,784 | +$66,436 | -$22,108 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,168 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.40/sh | +$81 cycle +$289 [-$210…+$3,307] · 74% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$15,446 NOT cap gain +$77,774 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.23/sh | -$646 cycle -$438 [-$966…+$2,526] · 64% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$14,088 NOT cap gain +$79,132 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,105 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.24/sh | -$5,248 cycle -$5,040 [-$6,052…-$2,403] | 61% surv 52% | -$33,989 NOT cap gain +$59,231 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $780/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $284/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,339 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 56.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 14.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,272 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,093.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,094-1,106.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,106.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,105.00 (2.6σ) | $208 | $-28,740 | +$64,480 | -$98 |
| +2.5% | $1,132.62 (2.8σ) | $-5,317 | $-28,508 | +$64,712 | -$5,623 |
| +5% | $1,160.25 (3.1σ) | $-10,842 | $-28,276 | +$64,944 | -$11,148 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-22,792 | $-27,774 | +$65,446 | -$23,098 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,148 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.32/sh | +$1,265 cycle +$1,497 [+$808…+$4,210] · 83% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$18,406 NOT cap gain +$74,814 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,163 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$111 cycle +$343 [-$816…+$2,836] · 61% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$16,434 NOT cap gain +$76,786 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,100 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$26.04/sh | -$5,208 cycle -$4,976 [-$7,573…-$3,090] | 61% surv 52% | -$34,967 NOT cap gain +$58,253 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $870/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $374/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,315 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 58.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 14.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,273 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,089.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,089-1,101.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,101.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,100.00 (2.6σ) | $232 | $-29,758 | +$63,462 | -$74 |
| +2.5% | $1,127.50 (2.8σ) | $-5,268 | $-29,527 | +$63,693 | -$5,574 |
| +5% | $1,155.00 (3.0σ) | $-10,768 | $-29,296 | +$63,924 | -$11,074 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-23,768 | $-28,750 | +$64,470 | -$24,074 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,158 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.70/sh | +$140 cycle +$378 [-$308…+$3,529] · 69% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$17,441 NOT cap gain +$75,779 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,168 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.93/sh | -$585 cycle -$347 [-$1,295…+$2,767] · 64% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$16,082 NOT cap gain +$77,138 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,095 | 10 Aug 2026 | 7d left | -$25.84/sh | -$5,168 cycle -$4,930 [-$6,336…-$2,288] | 61% surv 52% | -$35,962 NOT cap gain +$57,258 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $892/mo |
| vs 50% target ($12,811/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($25,622/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $396/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,309 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 60.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 15.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-93,280 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,084.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,084-1,096.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,096.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,095.00 (2.5σ) | $238 | $-30,794 | +$62,426 | -$68 |
| +2.5% | $1,122.38 (2.8σ) | $-5,237 | $-30,564 | +$62,656 | -$5,543 |
| +5% | $1,149.75 (3.0σ) | $-10,712 | $-30,334 | +$62,886 | -$11,018 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.6σ) | $-24,762 | $-29,744 | +$63,476 | -$25,068 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$101 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.53/sh | +$159 cycle +$342 [+$32…+$223] · 83% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$9,209 NOT cap gain +$4,666 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$53 cycle +$236 [-$91…+$105] · 48% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$8,782 NOT cap gain +$5,093 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.13/sh | -$39 cycle +$144 [-$201…+$7] · 26% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$10,768 NOT cap gain +$3,107 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.59/sh | -$177 cycle +$6 [-$371…-$141] · 11% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$7,945 NOT cap gain +$5,930 |
| budget: banked $183 debit $177 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $803/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $686/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $459/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,812 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 43.0% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 20.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-8,352 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $97-98.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $98.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $183 | $-10,729 | +$3,146 | +$180 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (1.3σ) | $-552 | $-10,157 | +$3,718 | -$555 |
| +5% | $102.90 (1.7σ) | $-1,287 | $-9,585 | +$4,290 | -$1,290 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-4,779 | $-7,775 | +$6,100 | -$3,420 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$101 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.53/sh | +$265 cycle +$570 [+$49…+$356] · 82% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$8,983 NOT cap gain +$4,892 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$89 cycle +$394 [-$151…+$169] · 49% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$8,627 NOT cap gain +$5,248 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.13/sh | -$64 cycle +$241 [-$333…+$11] · 26% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$10,674 NOT cap gain +$3,201 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.59/sh | -$295 cycle +$10 [-$628…-$232] · 10% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$7,943 NOT cap gain +$5,932 |
| budget: banked $305 debit $295 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$10 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,339/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,144/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | +17% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $913/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,687 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 71.7% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 34.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-13,920 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $97-98.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $98.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $305 | $-10,609 | +$3,266 | +$300 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (1.3σ) | $-920 | $-10,527 | +$3,348 | -$925 |
| +5% | $102.90 (1.7σ) | $-2,145 | $-10,445 | +$3,430 | -$2,150 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-7,965 | $-10,055 | +$3,820 | -$5,700 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.56/sh | +$279 cycle +$864 [-$43…+$199] · 67% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$10,823 NOT cap gain +$3,052 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$46 cycle +$631 [-$296…-$42] · 21% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$9,990 NOT cap gain +$3,885 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$95 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.12/sh | -$60 cycle +$525 [-$436…-$155] · 12% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$11,990 NOT cap gain +$1,885 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.93/sh | -$465 cycle +$120 [-$941…-$598] · 1% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$8,367 NOT cap gain +$5,508 |
| budget: banked $585 debit $465 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$120 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $936/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,194/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | +125% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 113% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,963/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,907 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 80.7% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 38.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $94.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $94-96.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $95.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $585 | $-11,930 | +$1,945 | +$580 |
| +2.5% | $97.37 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-602 | $-11,850 | +$2,025 | -$607 |
| +5% | $99.75 (1.2σ) | $-1,790 | $-11,770 | +$2,105 | -$1,795 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-9,185 | $-11,275 | +$2,600 | -$6,920 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$106 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.30/sh | +$149 cycle +$199 [+$66…+$469] · 81% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$6,687 NOT cap gain +$7,188 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$102 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.14/sh | -$70 cycle -$20 [-$184…+$236] · 53% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$8,800 NOT cap gain +$5,075 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | -81% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-43/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,942 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 58.7% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 27.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $100.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $101-102.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $102.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $102.00 (1.6σ) | $50 | $-8,730 | +$5,145 | +$45 |
| +2.5% | $104.55 (2.0σ) | $-1,225 | $-8,645 | +$5,230 | -$1,230 |
| +5% | $107.10 (2.4σ) | $-2,500 | $-8,559 | +$5,316 | -$2,505 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-6,220 | $-8,310 | +$5,565 | -$3,955 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$118 cycle +$173 [-$56…+$301] · 66% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$7,780 NOT cap gain +$6,095 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$100 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.13/sh | -$67 cycle -$12 [-$267…+$104] · 37% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$9,859 NOT cap gain +$4,016 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $206/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | -79% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-25/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,937 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 66.1% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 31.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $99-100.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $100.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $100.00 (1.3σ) | $55 | $-9,792 | +$4,083 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $102.50 (1.7σ) | $-1,195 | $-9,708 | +$4,167 | -$1,200 |
| +5% | $105.00 (2.1σ) | $-2,445 | $-9,625 | +$4,250 | -$2,450 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-7,215 | $-9,305 | +$4,570 | -$4,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$103 cycle +$203 [-$78…+$262] · 63% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$8,283 NOT cap gain +$5,592 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$99 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.13/sh | -$66 cycle +$34 [-$262…+$83] · 38% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$10,346 NOT cap gain +$3,529 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | -62% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $144/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,392 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 69.5% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 32.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $98.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $98-99.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $99.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $99.00 (1.1σ) | $100 | $-10,281 | +$3,594 | +$95 |
| +2.5% | $101.47 (1.5σ) | $-1,137 | $-10,198 | +$3,677 | -$1,142 |
| +5% | $103.95 (1.9σ) | $-2,375 | $-10,115 | +$3,760 | -$2,380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-7,670 | $-9,760 | +$4,115 | -$5,405 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.50/sh | +$250 cycle +$545 [+$14…+$317] · 77% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$9,542 NOT cap gain +$4,333 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$101 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$74 cycle +$369 [-$191…+$131] · 42% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$9,185 NOT cap gain +$4,690 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$97 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.13/sh | -$63 cycle +$232 [-$357…-$11] · 23% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$11,216 NOT cap gain +$2,659 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.38/sh | -$192 cycle +$103 [-$510…-$151] · 13% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$8,650 NOT cap gain +$5,225 |
| budget: banked $295 debit $192 (65% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$103 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,470/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,106/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $875/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,197 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 75.4% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 35.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $96.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $96-97.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $97.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $97.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $295 | $-11,153 | +$2,722 | +$290 |
| +2.5% | $99.42 (1.2σ) | $-917 | $-11,071 | +$2,804 | -$922 |
| +5% | $101.85 (1.6σ) | $-2,130 | $-10,990 | +$2,885 | -$2,135 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-8,475 | $-10,565 | +$3,310 | -$6,210 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.47/sh | +$187 cycle +$527 [-$22…+$172] · 69% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$10,092 NOT cap gain +$3,783 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$48 cycle +$388 [-$186…+$20] · 28% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$9,698 NOT cap gain +$4,177 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$96 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.12/sh | -$49 cycle +$291 [-$307…-$84] · 17% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$11,689 NOT cap gain +$2,186 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.65/sh | -$262 cycle +$78 [-$556…-$323] · 4% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$8,408 NOT cap gain +$5,467 |
| budget: banked $340 debit $262 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $964/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,275/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | +31% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,046/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,454 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 62.5% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 29.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-11,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $95.04 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $95-97.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $97.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $96.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $340 | $-11,640 | +$2,235 | +$336 |
| +2.5% | $98.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-620 | $-11,320 | +$2,555 | -$624 |
| +5% | $100.80 (1.4σ) | $-1,580 | $-10,999 | +$2,876 | -$1,584 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-7,076 | $-9,619 | +$4,256 | -$5,264 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.98/sh | +$195 cycle +$505 [+$71…+$151] · 93% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$12,246 NOT cap gain +$1,629 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$98 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$13 cycle +$323 [-$137…-$44] · 14% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$10,828 NOT cap gain +$3,047 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$94 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.12/sh | -$24 cycle +$286 [-$187…-$84] · 8% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$12,759 NOT cap gain +$1,116 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$106 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.52/sh | -$305 cycle +$5 [-$566…-$398] | 89% surv 88% | -$6,878 NOT cap gain +$6,997 |
| budget: banked $310 debit $305 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $162/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,162/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | +19% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 60% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $938/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,487 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 33.2% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 15.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-5,625 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $93.06 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $93-95.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $95.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $94.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $310 | $-12,735 | +$1,140 | +$308 |
| +2.5% | $96.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-160 | $-11,951 | +$1,924 | -$162 |
| +5% | $98.70 (1.0σ) | $-630 | $-11,168 | +$2,707 | -$632 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-3,798 | $-7,247 | +$6,628 | -$2,892 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.95/sh | +$190 cycle +$588 [+$49…+$121] · 89% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$12,697 NOT cap gain +$1,178 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$8 cycle +$406 [-$165…-$71] · 8% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$11,279 NOT cap gain +$2,596 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$93 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.12/sh | -$23 cycle +$375 [-$212…-$107] · 5% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$13,204 NOT cap gain +$671 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$106 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.56/sh | -$312 cycle +$86 [-$615…-$431] | 91% surv 91% | -$6,797 NOT cap gain +$7,078 |
| budget: banked $398 debit $312 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $135/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,492/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | +53% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 77% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,268/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,599 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 34.0% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 16.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-5,625 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $92.07 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $92-95.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $95.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $93.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $398 | $-13,181 | +$694 | +$396 |
| +2.5% | $95.32 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-67 | $-12,405 | +$1,470 | -$69 |
| +5% | $97.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-532 | $-11,630 | +$2,245 | -$534 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-3,910 | $-7,359 | +$6,516 | -$3,004 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.11/sh | -$23 cycle +$427 | 62% surv 52% | -$13,445 NOT cap gain +$430 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$40 cycle +$490 | 73% surv 65% | -$12,022 NOT cap gain +$1,853 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.54/sh | -$307 cycle +$143 | 91% surv 90% | -$7,567 NOT cap gain +$6,308 |
| budget: banked $450 debit $307 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$143 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $127/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,688/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | +73% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 87% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,462/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,747 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 35.1% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 16.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-5,625 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $91.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $91-94.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $92.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $450 | $-13,422 | +$453 | +$448 |
| +2.5% | $94.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-10 | $-12,895 | +$980 | -$12 |
| +5% | $96.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-470 | $-12,128 | +$1,747 | -$472 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-4,058 | $-7,507 | +$6,368 | -$3,152 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$91 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.11/sh | -$11 cycle +$274 | 62% surv 51% | -$13,597 NOT cap gain +$278 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.37/sh | +$37 cycle +$322 | 70% surv 61% | -$13,256 NOT cap gain +$619 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.59/sh | -$159 cycle +$126 | 93% surv 92% | -$7,583 NOT cap gain +$6,292 |
| budget: banked $285 debit $159 (56% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$126 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $48/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,069/mo |
| vs 50% target ($975/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($1,950/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $846/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,413 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 17.9% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 8.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-2,835 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $90.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $90-94.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $91.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $285 | $-13,586 | +$289 | +$284 |
| +2.5% | $93.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $58 | $-13,373 | +$502 | +$56 |
| +5% | $95.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-170 | $-12,387 | +$1,488 | -$171 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.7σ) | $-2,069 | $-5,971 | +$7,904 | -$1,616 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$171 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.66/sh | +$329 cycle +$874 [-$205…+$918] · 66% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$28,883 NOT cap gain +$12,927 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$168 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$11 cycle +$556 [-$452…+$577] · 50% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$31,249 NOT cap gain +$10,561 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$174 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.29/sh | -$147 cycle +$398 [-$762…+$402] · 40% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$28,032 NOT cap gain +$13,778 |
| budget: banked $545 debit $147 (27% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$398 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,813/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,044/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -41% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 30% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,777/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,087 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 177.0% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 39.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,902 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $165.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $166-168.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $168.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $167.50 (1.4σ) | $545 | $-31,260 | +$10,550 | +$495 |
| +2.5% | $171.69 (1.8σ) | $-1,549 | $-31,132 | +$10,678 | -$1,599 |
| +5% | $175.88 (2.1σ) | $-3,642 | $-31,004 | +$10,806 | -$3,692 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-27,705 | $-29,537 | +$12,273 | -$25,755 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$169 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.73/sh | +$363 cycle +$1,118 [-$245…+$842] · 65% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$29,965 NOT cap gain +$11,845 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$165 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$48 cycle +$803 [-$476…+$520] · 49% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$32,328 NOT cap gain +$9,482 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$166 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$6 cycle +$761 [-$502…+$439] · 45% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$31,648 NOT cap gain +$10,162 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$174 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.11/sh | -$555 cycle +$200 [-$1,317…-$169] · 21% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$28,230 NOT cap gain +$13,580 |
| budget: banked $755 debit $555 (73% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$200 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,058/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,831/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -18% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 41% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,564/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,127 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 183.1% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 40.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,872 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $163.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $163-166.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $166.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $165.00 (1.2σ) | $755 | $-32,376 | +$9,434 | +$705 |
| +2.5% | $169.12 (1.6σ) | $-1,307 | $-32,250 | +$9,560 | -$1,357 |
| +5% | $173.25 (1.9σ) | $-3,370 | $-32,124 | +$9,686 | -$3,420 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-28,745 | $-30,577 | +$11,233 | -$26,795 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$161 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.91/sh | +$764 cycle +$1,708 [+$183…+$931] · 83% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$33,344 NOT cap gain +$8,466 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$164 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.85/sh | +$341 cycle +$1,285 [-$301…+$472] · 53% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$32,440 NOT cap gain +$9,370 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$160 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$95 cycle +$1,039 [-$473…+$233] · 38% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$34,735 NOT cap gain +$7,075 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$161 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$60 cycle +$1,004 [-$483…+$182] · 36% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$34,048 NOT cap gain +$7,762 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$171 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.71/sh | -$683 cycle +$261 [-$1,526…-$652] · 7% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$29,486 NOT cap gain +$12,324 |
| budget: banked $944 debit $683 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$261 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,727/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,540/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,293/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,562 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 156.2% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 34.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-33,530 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $158.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $158-162.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $162.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $160.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $944 | $-34,830 | +$6,980 | +$904 |
| +2.5% | $164.00 (1.2σ) | $-656 | $-34,308 | +$7,502 | -$696 |
| +5% | $168.00 (1.5σ) | $-2,256 | $-33,786 | +$8,024 | -$2,296 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-24,656 | $-26,878 | +$14,932 | -$23,096 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$156 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.02/sh | +$1,012 cycle +$2,887 [+$93…+$836] · 80% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$34,828 NOT cap gain +$6,982 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$155 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.37/sh | +$185 cycle +$2,060 [-$708…-$3] · 25% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$36,376 NOT cap gain +$5,434 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$156 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.28/sh | +$139 cycle +$2,014 [-$710…-$48] · 23% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$35,700 NOT cap gain +$6,110 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$161 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$13 cycle +$1,888 [-$1,072…-$241] · 16% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$33,174 NOT cap gain +$8,636 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$176 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.67/sh | -$1,837 cycle +$38 [-$3,394…-$2,238] | 88% surv 86% | -$27,067 NOT cap gain +$14,743 |
| budget: banked $1,875 debit $1,837 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$38 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,618/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,031/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,764/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,007 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 205.9% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 45.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-42,010 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $153.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $153-159.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $159.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $155.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,875 | $-36,561 | +$5,249 | +$1,825 |
| +2.5% | $158.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-62 | $-36,443 | +$5,367 | -$112 |
| +5% | $162.75 (1.1σ) | $-2,000 | $-36,325 | +$5,485 | -$2,050 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-32,625 | $-34,457 | +$7,353 | -$30,675 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$200 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.14/sh | -$572 cycle -$547 | 66% surv 52% | -$15,110 NOT cap gain +$26,700 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$201 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$277 cycle +$302 | 69% surv 55% | -$13,540 NOT cap gain +$28,270 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $94/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-173/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,357 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 84.5% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 18.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,822 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $198.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $198-200.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $200.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $200.00 (3.9σ) | $25 | $-14,539 | +$27,271 | -$25 |
| +2.5% | $205.00 (4.3σ) | $-2,475 | $-14,386 | +$27,424 | -$2,525 |
| +5% | $210.00 (4.7σ) | $-4,975 | $-14,234 | +$27,576 | -$5,025 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-11,975 | $-13,807 | +$28,003 | -$10,025 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$190 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.74/sh | -$372 cycle -$287 | 66% surv 52% | -$20,156 NOT cap gain +$21,654 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$191 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.97/sh | +$484 cycle +$569 | 69% surv 55% | -$18,578 NOT cap gain +$23,232 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$194 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$49 cycle +$36 | 71% surv 60% | -$17,785 NOT cap gain +$24,025 |
| budget: banked $85 debit $49 (58% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$36 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,655/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $319/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $52/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,297 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 113.5% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 25.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,828 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $188-190.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $190.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (3.2σ) | $85 | $-19,784 | +$22,026 | +$35 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (3.5σ) | $-2,290 | $-19,639 | +$22,171 | -$2,340 |
| +5% | $199.50 (3.9σ) | $-4,665 | $-19,494 | +$22,316 | -$4,715 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-16,915 | $-18,747 | +$23,063 | -$14,965 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$185 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.56/sh | -$279 cycle -$219 | 66% surv 52% | -$22,740 NOT cap gain +$19,070 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$189 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$46 cycle +$106 | 71% surv 60% | -$20,368 NOT cap gain +$21,442 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $225/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-42/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,822 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 128.4% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 28.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,935 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $183.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $183-185.37 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $185.37 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $185.00 (2.8σ) | $60 | $-22,461 | +$19,349 | +$10 |
| +2.5% | $189.62 (3.1σ) | $-2,252 | $-22,320 | +$19,490 | -$2,302 |
| +5% | $194.25 (3.5σ) | $-4,565 | $-22,179 | +$19,631 | -$4,615 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-19,440 | $-21,272 | +$20,538 | -$17,490 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$184 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$134 cycle +$304 [-$136…+$1,175] · 68% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$22,822 NOT cap gain +$18,988 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$180 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.38/sh | -$191 cycle -$21 [-$381…+$804] · 59% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$25,194 NOT cap gain +$16,616 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $638/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -82% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $371/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,212 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 142.4% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 31.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,850 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $178.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $178-180.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $180.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $180.00 (2.4σ) | $170 | $-25,004 | +$16,806 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $184.50 (2.7σ) | $-2,080 | $-24,866 | +$16,944 | -$2,130 |
| +5% | $189.00 (3.1σ) | $-4,330 | $-24,729 | +$17,081 | -$4,380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-21,830 | $-23,662 | +$18,148 | -$19,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$181 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$176 cycle +$396 [-$57…+$1,027] · 74% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$24,056 NOT cap gain +$17,754 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$178 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.30/sh | -$148 cycle +$72 [-$283…+$676] · 59% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$26,428 NOT cap gain +$15,382 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $558/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,412 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 149.5% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 33.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,852 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $175.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $176-178.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $178.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $177.50 (2.2σ) | $220 | $-26,280 | +$15,530 | +$170 |
| +2.5% | $181.94 (2.5σ) | $-1,999 | $-26,144 | +$15,666 | -$2,049 |
| +5% | $186.38 (2.9σ) | $-4,218 | $-26,009 | +$15,801 | -$4,268 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-23,030 | $-24,862 | +$16,948 | -$21,080 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$179 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$217 cycle +$517 [-$112…+$864] · 70% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$25,262 NOT cap gain +$16,548 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$175 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.21/sh | -$107 cycle +$193 [-$373…+$505] · 53% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$27,633 NOT cap gain +$14,177 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$181 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$260 cycle +$40 [-$666…+$347] · 42% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$24,412 NOT cap gain +$17,398 |
| budget: banked $300 debit $260 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,850/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -67% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $858/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,582 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 156.4% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 34.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,845 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $173.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $173-175.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $175.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $175.00 (2.0σ) | $300 | $-27,526 | +$14,284 | +$250 |
| +2.5% | $179.37 (2.3σ) | $-1,887 | $-27,393 | +$14,417 | -$1,937 |
| +5% | $183.75 (2.7σ) | $-4,075 | $-27,259 | +$14,551 | -$4,125 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-24,200 | $-26,032 | +$15,778 | -$22,250 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$176 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$255 cycle +$585 [-$121…+$1,195] · 70% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$26,519 NOT cap gain +$15,291 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$172 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.13/sh | -$66 cycle +$264 [-$362…+$830] · 61% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$28,889 NOT cap gain +$12,921 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$179 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.44/sh | -$221 cycle +$109 [-$691…+$681] · 44% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$25,669 NOT cap gain +$16,141 |
| budget: banked $330 debit $221 (67% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$109 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,840/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,238/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $970/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,802 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 163.5% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 36.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,885 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $170.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $171-173.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $173.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $172.50 (1.8σ) | $330 | $-28,822 | +$12,988 | +$280 |
| +2.5% | $176.81 (2.1σ) | $-1,826 | $-28,691 | +$13,119 | -$1,876 |
| +5% | $181.12 (2.5σ) | $-3,982 | $-28,559 | +$13,251 | -$4,032 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-25,420 | $-27,252 | +$14,558 | -$23,470 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$174 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.59/sh | +$293 cycle +$728 [-$181…+$922] · 67% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$27,703 NOT cap gain +$14,107 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.05/sh | -$27 cycle +$408 [-$410…+$572] · 51% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$30,071 NOT cap gain +$11,739 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$176 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.37/sh | -$183 cycle +$252 [-$738…+$425] · 43% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$26,853 NOT cap gain +$14,957 |
| budget: banked $435 debit $183 (42% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$252 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,828/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,631/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -53% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,364/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,947 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 170.3% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 37.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,882 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $168.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $168-171.01 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $171.01 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $170.00 (1.6σ) | $435 | $-30,044 | +$11,766 | +$385 |
| +2.5% | $174.25 (2.0σ) | $-1,690 | $-29,914 | +$11,896 | -$1,740 |
| +5% | $178.50 (2.3σ) | $-3,815 | $-29,784 | +$12,026 | -$3,865 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-26,565 | $-28,397 | +$13,413 | -$24,615 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$164 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.85/sh | +$924 cycle +$1,839 [+$195…+$1,284] · 83% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$31,897 NOT cap gain +$9,913 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$166 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.79/sh | +$396 cycle +$1,311 [-$401…+$698] · 56% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$31,099 NOT cap gain +$10,711 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$162 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$84 cycle +$999 [-$625…+$390] · 43% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$33,458 NOT cap gain +$8,352 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$164 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$41 cycle +$956 [-$636…+$318] · 39% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$32,779 NOT cap gain +$9,031 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$174 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.77/sh | -$887 cycle +$28 [-$1,961…-$639] · 10% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$28,403 NOT cap gain +$13,407 |
| budget: banked $915 debit $887 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,428/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,431/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | -1% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,164/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,217 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 189.5% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 41.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-41,908 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $160.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $161-164.53 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $164.53 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $162.50 (1.1σ) | $915 | $-33,542 | +$8,268 | +$865 |
| +2.5% | $166.56 (1.4σ) | $-1,116 | $-33,418 | +$8,392 | -$1,166 |
| +5% | $170.62 (1.7σ) | $-3,148 | $-33,294 | +$8,516 | -$3,197 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-29,835 | $-31,667 | +$10,143 | -$27,885 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$159 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.97/sh | +$787 cycle +$1,987 [+$166…+$844] · 85% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$34,391 NOT cap gain +$7,419 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$161 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.91/sh | +$365 cycle +$1,565 [-$312…+$376] · 47% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$33,487 NOT cap gain +$8,323 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$158 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.30/sh | +$122 cycle +$1,322 [-$478…+$146] · 34% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$35,778 NOT cap gain +$6,032 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$159 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.22/sh | +$86 cycle +$1,286 [-$486…+$105] · 32% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$35,092 NOT cap gain +$6,718 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$174 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.87/sh | -$1,149 cycle +$51 [-$2,137…-$1,265] · 0% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$28,370 NOT cap gain +$13,440 |
| budget: banked $1,200 debit $1,149 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,890/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | +30% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,253/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,306 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 160.6% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 35.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-33,588 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $155.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $156-160.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $160.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $157.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,200 | $-35,900 | +$5,910 | +$1,160 |
| +2.5% | $161.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-375 | $-35,386 | +$6,424 | -$415 |
| +5% | $165.38 (1.3σ) | $-1,950 | $-34,872 | +$6,938 | -$1,990 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-25,400 | $-27,622 | +$14,188 | -$23,840 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$154 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.08/sh | +$415 cycle +$1,345 [+$15…+$286] · 77% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$37,666 NOT cap gain +$4,144 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$152 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.43/sh | +$86 cycle +$1,016 [-$300…-$43] · 21% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$38,716 NOT cap gain +$3,094 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$154 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.34/sh | +$68 cycle +$998 [-$296…-$58] · 19% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$38,013 NOT cap gain +$3,797 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$159 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$16 cycle +$946 [-$450…-$147] · 14% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$35,412 NOT cap gain +$6,398 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$179 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$4.21/sh | -$841 cycle +$89 [-$1,561…-$1,088] | 90% surv 89% | -$25,660 NOT cap gain +$16,150 |
| budget: banked $930 debit $841 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$89 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $440/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,488/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,280/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,323 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 84.3% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 18.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-16,814 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $150.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $151-157.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $157.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $152.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $930 | $-38,802 | +$3,008 | +$910 |
| +2.5% | $156.31 (≤1σ, normal week) | $168 | $-37,542 | +$4,268 | +$148 |
| +5% | $160.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-595 | $-36,282 | +$5,528 | -$615 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-13,370 | $-16,372 | +$25,438 | -$12,590 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$151 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.12/sh | +$425 cycle +$1,555 [-$60…+$210] · 68% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$38,782 NOT cap gain +$3,028 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$150 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.49/sh | +$98 cycle +$1,228 [-$373…-$103] · 13% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$39,830 NOT cap gain +$1,980 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$151 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.40/sh | +$79 cycle +$1,209 [-$365…-$109] · 12% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$39,128 NOT cap gain +$2,682 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$156 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$26 cycle +$1,156 [-$542…-$205] · 9% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$36,528 NOT cap gain +$5,282 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$176 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$4.13/sh | -$827 cycle +$303 [-$1,710…-$1,150] | 91% surv 90% | -$26,771 NOT cap gain +$15,039 |
| budget: banked $1,130 debit $827 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$303 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $433/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,238/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,450/mo) | +23% |
| vs normal income ($6,900/mo) | 61% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,030/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,623 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 86.0% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 19.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-16,829 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $148.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $148-156.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $156.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $150.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,130 | $-39,929 | +$1,881 | +$1,110 |
| +2.5% | $153.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $380 | $-38,689 | +$3,121 | +$360 |
| +5% | $157.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-370 | $-37,450 | +$4,360 | -$390 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (5.8σ) | $-13,670 | $-16,672 | +$25,138 | -$12,890 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.33/sh | +$797 cycle +$1,103 [+$619…+$1,241] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$45,826 NOT cap gain +$8,765 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$260 cycle +$566 [-$180…+$669] · 64% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$43,246 NOT cap gain +$11,345 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$115 cycle +$421 [-$197…+$473] · 58% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$45,096 NOT cap gain +$9,495 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$75 cycle +$381 [-$391…+$466] · 51% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$42,863 NOT cap gain +$11,728 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.49/sh | -$295 cycle +$11 [-$847…+$64] · 29% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$42,097 NOT cap gain +$12,494 |
| budget: banked $306 debit $295 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,372/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,148/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $273/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,834 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 281.4% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 64.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.2 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,642 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $73.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-74.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $74.00 (1.4σ) | $306 | $-46,623 | +$7,968 | +$288 |
| +2.5% | $75.85 (1.6σ) | $-804 | $-46,682 | +$7,909 | -$822 |
| +5% | $77.70 (1.8σ) | $-1,914 | $-46,740 | +$7,851 | -$1,932 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-40,224 | $-48,771 | +$5,820 | -$26,112 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$70 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.39/sh | +$836 cycle +$1,466 [+$566…+$1,046] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$47,736 NOT cap gain +$6,855 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$74 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.83/sh | +$497 cycle +$1,127 [-$7…+$642] · 75% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$45,527 NOT cap gain +$9,064 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$73 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$36 cycle +$666 [-$396…+$154] · 37% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$46,839 NOT cap gain +$7,752 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$77 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$10 cycle +$640 [-$588…+$130] · 32% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$44,593 NOT cap gain +$9,998 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.90/sh | -$539 cycle +$91 [-$1,248…-$436] · 9% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$43,153 NOT cap gain +$11,438 |
| budget: banked $630 debit $539 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,758/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,362/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -24% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,488/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,910 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 294.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 67.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.5 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,630 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $69.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $69-71.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $71.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $70.00 (1.0σ) | $630 | $-48,572 | +$6,019 | +$612 |
| +2.5% | $71.75 (1.2σ) | $-420 | $-48,627 | +$5,964 | -$438 |
| +5% | $73.50 (1.4σ) | $-1,470 | $-48,683 | +$5,908 | -$1,488 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-42,300 | $-50,847 | +$3,744 | -$28,188 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$68 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.42/sh | +$855 cycle +$1,749 [+$535…+$970] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$48,873 NOT cap gain +$5,718 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$72 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.84/sh | +$504 cycle +$1,398 [-$54…+$550] · 71% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$46,676 NOT cap gain +$7,915 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$70 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$58 cycle +$952 [-$407…+$80] · 31% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$47,974 NOT cap gain +$6,617 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$74 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$22 cycle +$916 [-$633…+$14] · 26% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$45,738 NOT cap gain +$8,853 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.48/sh | -$890 cycle +$4 [-$1,738…-$949] · 1% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$42,956 NOT cap gain +$11,635 |
| budget: banked $894 debit $890 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,042/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,352/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,478/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,146 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 302.2% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 68.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.7 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,648 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $66.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $67-69.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $69.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $67.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $894 | $-49,728 | +$4,863 | +$876 |
| +2.5% | $69.19 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-118 | $-49,782 | +$4,809 | -$136 |
| +5% | $70.88 (1.1σ) | $-1,131 | $-49,835 | +$4,756 | -$1,149 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-43,536 | $-52,083 | +$2,508 | -$29,424 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$63 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.47/sh | +$880 cycle +$2,632 [+$467…+$760] · 99% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$50,547 NOT cap gain +$4,044 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$66 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.19/sh | +$716 cycle +$2,468 [+$41…+$480] · 77% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$48,731 NOT cap gain +$5,860 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$66 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$23 cycle +$1,775 [-$557…-$185] · 13% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$49,424 NOT cap gain +$5,167 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$70 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$34 cycle +$1,786 [-$782…-$251] · 13% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$47,424 NOT cap gain +$7,167 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.10/sh | -$1,260 cycle +$492 [-$2,457…-$1,654] | 90% surv 89% | -$42,184 NOT cap gain +$12,407 |
| budget: banked $1,752 debit $1,260 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$492 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,190/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,570/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +111% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,695/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,988 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 313.8% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 71.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,690 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $62.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $62-66.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $66.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $63.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,752 | $-51,427 | +$3,164 | +$1,734 |
| +2.5% | $64.57 (≤1σ, normal week) | $807 | $-51,477 | +$3,114 | +$789 |
| +5% | $66.15 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-138 | $-51,527 | +$3,064 | -$156 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-45,378 | $-53,925 | +$666 | -$31,266 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.85/sh | +$509 cycle +$539 | 69% surv 53% | -$36,162 NOT cap gain +$18,429 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$93 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.42/sh | +$252 cycle +$282 | 71% surv 57% | -$35,575 NOT cap gain +$19,016 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$27 cycle +$57 | 74% surv 65% | -$33,528 NOT cap gain +$21,063 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-762/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,310 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 215.4% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 49.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.5 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,762 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $91.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $91-92.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $92.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $92.00 (3.4σ) | $30 | $-36,671 | +$17,920 | +$12 |
| +2.5% | $94.30 (3.6σ) | $-1,350 | $-36,744 | +$17,847 | -$1,368 |
| +5% | $96.60 (3.9σ) | $-2,730 | $-36,818 | +$17,773 | -$2,748 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-29,700 | $-38,247 | +$16,344 | -$15,588 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.92/sh | +$550 cycle +$580 | 69% surv 53% | -$37,257 NOT cap gain +$17,334 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$91 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.49/sh | +$293 cycle +$323 | 71% surv 57% | -$36,671 NOT cap gain +$17,920 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$63 cycle +$93 | 74% surv 66% | -$34,628 NOT cap gain +$19,963 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-762/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,510 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 222.9% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 50.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.7 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,618 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-90.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (3.2σ) | $30 | $-37,808 | +$16,783 | +$12 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (3.4σ) | $-1,320 | $-37,879 | +$16,712 | -$1,338 |
| +5% | $94.50 (3.6σ) | $-2,670 | $-37,951 | +$16,640 | -$2,688 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-30,900 | $-39,447 | +$15,144 | -$16,788 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.20/sh | +$722 cycle +$824 [+$695…+$1,396] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$42,695 NOT cap gain +$11,896 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$112 cycle +$214 [-$199…+$732] · 67% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$39,905 NOT cap gain +$14,686 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$36 cycle +$138 [-$162…+$608] · 64% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$41,970 NOT cap gain +$12,621 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$18 cycle +$120 [-$310…+$630] · 59% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$39,715 NOT cap gain +$14,876 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $383/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-492/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,438 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 260.1% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 59.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.6 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,633 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-80.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.00 (2.1σ) | $102 | $-43,418 | +$11,173 | +$84 |
| +2.5% | $82.00 (2.3σ) | $-1,098 | $-43,481 | +$11,110 | -$1,116 |
| +5% | $84.00 (2.5σ) | $-2,298 | $-43,545 | +$11,046 | -$2,316 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-36,828 | $-45,375 | +$9,216 | -$22,716 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.23/sh | +$736 cycle +$844 [+$584…+$1,313] · 97% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$43,244 NOT cap gain +$11,347 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$123 cycle +$231 [-$313…+$609] · 62% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$40,456 NOT cap gain +$14,135 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$50 cycle +$158 [-$252…+$511] · 61% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$42,518 NOT cap gain +$12,073 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$29 cycle +$137 [-$431…+$515] · 55% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$40,266 NOT cap gain +$14,325 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $405/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-470/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,032 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 263.9% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 60.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.7 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,648 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-79.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (2.0σ) | $108 | $-43,980 | +$10,611 | +$90 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (2.2σ) | $-1,077 | $-44,043 | +$10,548 | -$1,095 |
| +5% | $82.95 (2.4σ) | $-2,262 | $-44,105 | +$10,486 | -$2,280 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-37,422 | $-45,969 | +$8,622 | -$23,310 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.25/sh | +$750 cycle +$882 [+$616…+$1,317] · 96% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$43,774 NOT cap gain +$10,817 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$133 cycle +$265 [-$248…+$605] · 61% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$40,990 NOT cap gain +$13,601 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$64 cycle +$196 [-$171…+$476] · 60% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$43,048 NOT cap gain +$11,543 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$39 cycle +$171 [-$370…+$512] · 55% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$40,800 NOT cap gain +$13,791 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $495/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -84% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-380/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,608 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 267.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 60.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.8 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,648 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.9σ) | $132 | $-44,524 | +$10,067 | +$114 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (2.1σ) | $-1,038 | $-44,586 | +$10,005 | -$1,056 |
| +5% | $81.90 (2.3σ) | $-2,208 | $-44,648 | +$9,943 | -$2,226 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-37,998 | $-46,545 | +$8,046 | -$23,886 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.29/sh | +$775 cycle +$979 [+$561…+$1,295] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$44,814 NOT cap gain +$9,777 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.41/sh | +$245 cycle +$449 [-$223…+$693] · 61% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$42,227 NOT cap gain +$12,364 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$91 cycle +$295 [-$248…+$487] · 56% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$44,086 NOT cap gain +$10,505 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$59 cycle +$263 [-$442…+$501] · 46% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$41,845 NOT cap gain +$12,746 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.26/sh | -$159 cycle +$45 [-$718…+$268] · 37% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$41,494 NOT cap gain +$13,097 |
| budget: banked $204 debit $159 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$45 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,704/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $765/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -75% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-110/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,736 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 274.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 62.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,639 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.24 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $75-76.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $76.00 (1.7σ) | $204 | $-45,588 | +$9,003 | +$186 |
| +2.5% | $77.90 (1.9σ) | $-936 | $-45,649 | +$8,942 | -$954 |
| +5% | $79.80 (2.1σ) | $-2,076 | $-45,709 | +$8,882 | -$2,094 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-39,126 | $-47,673 | +$6,918 | -$25,014 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.31/sh | +$786 cycle +$1,026 [+$669…+$1,174] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$45,334 NOT cap gain +$9,257 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$103 cycle +$343 [-$149…+$431] · 65% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$44,605 NOT cap gain +$9,986 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$160 cycle +$400 [-$201…+$523] · 62% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$42,560 NOT cap gain +$12,031 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$67 cycle +$307 [-$296…+$423] · 55% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$42,369 NOT cap gain +$12,222 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.35/sh | -$212 cycle +$28 [-$615…+$137] · 32% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$41,795 NOT cap gain +$12,796 |
| budget: banked $240 debit $212 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,564/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $25/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,300 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 278.1% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 63.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.1 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,648 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $74.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $74-75.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $75.00 (1.5σ) | $240 | $-46,121 | +$8,470 | +$222 |
| +2.5% | $76.88 (1.8σ) | $-885 | $-46,180 | +$8,411 | -$903 |
| +5% | $78.75 (2.0σ) | $-2,010 | $-46,240 | +$8,351 | -$2,028 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-39,690 | $-48,237 | +$6,354 | -$25,578 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$73 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.35/sh | +$808 cycle +$1,168 [+$611…+$1,178] · 97% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$46,329 NOT cap gain +$8,262 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$78 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$267 cycle +$627 [-$214…+$601] · 62% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$43,753 NOT cap gain +$10,838 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$83 cycle +$443 [-$442…+$409] · 48% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$43,370 NOT cap gain +$11,221 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$5 cycle +$365 [-$360…+$298] · 45% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$45,436 NOT cap gain +$9,155 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$350 cycle +$10 [-$947…-$75] · 22% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$42,098 NOT cap gain +$12,493 |
| budget: banked $360 debit $350 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$10 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,228/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,350/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -57% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $475/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,380 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 284.9% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 64.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.3 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,645 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-73.69 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $73.69 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.00 (1.3σ) | $360 | $-47,137 | +$7,454 | +$342 |
| +2.5% | $74.82 (1.5σ) | $-735 | $-47,195 | +$7,396 | -$753 |
| +5% | $76.65 (1.7σ) | $-1,830 | $-47,253 | +$7,338 | -$1,848 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-40,770 | $-49,317 | +$5,274 | -$26,658 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.36/sh | +$818 cycle +$1,262 [+$592…+$1,153] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$46,804 NOT cap gain +$7,787 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$77 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.46/sh | +$273 cycle +$717 [-$209…+$546] · 60% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$44,231 NOT cap gain +$10,360 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$78 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$89 cycle +$533 [-$430…+$327] · 46% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$43,847 NOT cap gain +$10,744 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$16 cycle +$460 [-$342…+$251] · 44% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$45,909 NOT cap gain +$8,682 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.57/sh | -$342 cycle +$102 [-$944…-$148] · 21% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$42,574 NOT cap gain +$12,017 |
| budget: banked $444 debit $342 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$102 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,189/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,665/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -47% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $790/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,896 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 288.1% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 65.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.4 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,633 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $71.28 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $71-72.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $72.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $72.00 (1.2σ) | $444 | $-47,621 | +$6,970 | +$426 |
| +2.5% | $73.80 (1.4σ) | $-636 | $-47,678 | +$6,913 | -$654 |
| +5% | $75.60 (1.6σ) | $-1,716 | $-47,736 | +$6,855 | -$1,734 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-41,286 | $-49,833 | +$4,758 | -$27,174 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$71 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.38/sh | +$827 cycle +$1,331 [+$559…+$1,104] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$47,303 NOT cap gain +$7,288 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$75 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$492 cycle +$996 [-$39…+$687] · 73% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$45,089 NOT cap gain +$9,502 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$74 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$26 cycle +$530 [-$414…+$184] · 37% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$46,407 NOT cap gain +$8,184 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$78 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$4 cycle +$508 [-$610…+$176] · 32% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$44,157 NOT cap gain +$10,434 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.56/sh | -$335 cycle +$169 [-$1,019…-$192] · 19% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$43,075 NOT cap gain +$11,516 |
| budget: banked $504 debit $335 (66% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$169 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,150/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,890/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -39% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 30% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,015/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,436 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 291.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 66.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.4 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,660 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $70.29 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $70-71.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $71.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $71.00 (1.1σ) | $504 | $-48,129 | +$6,462 | +$486 |
| +2.5% | $72.77 (1.3σ) | $-561 | $-48,186 | +$6,405 | -$579 |
| +5% | $74.55 (1.5σ) | $-1,626 | $-48,242 | +$6,349 | -$1,644 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-41,826 | $-50,373 | +$4,218 | -$27,714 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$69 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.41/sh | +$844 cycle +$1,552 [+$559…+$1,064] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$48,218 NOT cap gain +$6,373 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$73 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.83/sh | +$500 cycle +$1,208 [-$14…+$642] · 74% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$46,013 NOT cap gain +$8,578 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$46 cycle +$754 [-$372…+$158] · 37% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$47,320 NOT cap gain +$7,271 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$76 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$15 cycle +$723 [-$574…+$130] · 32% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$45,078 NOT cap gain +$9,513 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.10/sh | -$662 cycle +$46 [-$1,365…-$588] · 7% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$43,198 NOT cap gain +$11,393 |
| budget: banked $708 debit $662 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,500/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,655/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -15% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 43% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,780/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,432 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 297.7% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 67.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.6 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,639 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $68.31 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $68-70.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $70.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $69.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $708 | $-49,062 | +$5,529 | +$690 |
| +2.5% | $70.72 (1.1σ) | $-327 | $-49,117 | +$5,474 | -$345 |
| +5% | $72.45 (1.3σ) | $-1,362 | $-49,172 | +$5,419 | -$1,380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-42,822 | $-51,369 | +$3,222 | -$28,710 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$68 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.41/sh | +$848 cycle +$1,592 [+$548…+$1,053] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$48,462 NOT cap gain +$6,129 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$73 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.84/sh | +$501 cycle +$1,245 [-$60…+$633] · 71% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$46,260 NOT cap gain +$8,331 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$71 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$50 cycle +$794 [-$407…+$153] · 35% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$47,564 NOT cap gain +$7,027 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$75 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$17 cycle +$761 [-$637…+$119] · 30% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$45,324 NOT cap gain +$9,267 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.10/sh | -$657 cycle +$87 [-$1,443…-$598] · 7% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$43,442 NOT cap gain +$11,149 |
| budget: banked $744 debit $657 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$87 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,481/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,790/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -11% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 45% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,915/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,696 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 299.4% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 68.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.6 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,657 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $67.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $68-69.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $69.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $68.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $744 | $-49,310 | +$5,281 | +$726 |
| +2.5% | $70.21 (1.0σ) | $-283 | $-49,364 | +$5,227 | -$301 |
| +5% | $71.92 (1.2σ) | $-1,311 | $-49,419 | +$5,172 | -$1,329 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-43,086 | $-51,633 | +$2,958 | -$28,974 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$68 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.42/sh | +$851 cycle +$1,595 [+$537…+$993] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$48,743 NOT cap gain +$5,848 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$72 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.84/sh | +$503 cycle +$1,247 [-$40…+$576] · 72% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$46,543 NOT cap gain +$8,048 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$71 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$54 cycle +$798 [-$393…+$95] · 33% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$47,844 NOT cap gain +$6,747 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$75 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$20 cycle +$764 [-$606…+$40] · 27% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$45,606 NOT cap gain +$8,985 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.09/sh | -$653 cycle +$91 [-$1,407…-$676] · 9% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$43,721 NOT cap gain +$10,870 |
| budget: banked $744 debit $653 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,462/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,790/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | -11% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 45% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,915/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,996 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 301.3% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 68.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.7 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,693 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $67.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $67-69.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $69.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $68.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $744 | $-49,594 | +$4,997 | +$726 |
| +2.5% | $69.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-276 | $-49,648 | +$4,943 | -$294 |
| +5% | $71.40 (1.2σ) | $-1,296 | $-49,702 | +$4,889 | -$1,314 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-43,386 | $-51,933 | +$2,658 | -$29,274 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$67 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.43/sh | +$858 cycle +$1,818 [+$516…+$917] · 99% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$49,088 NOT cap gain +$5,503 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$71 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.84/sh | +$505 cycle +$1,465 [-$100…+$463] · 69% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$46,893 NOT cap gain +$7,698 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$70 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$62 cycle +$1,022 [-$431…+$23] · 26% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$48,188 NOT cap gain +$6,403 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$74 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$24 cycle +$984 [-$675…-$65] · 21% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$45,954 NOT cap gain +$8,637 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.47/sh | -$884 cycle +$76 [-$1,792…-$1,059] · 1% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$43,169 NOT cap gain +$11,422 |
| budget: banked $960 debit $884 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$76 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,024/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +15% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 58% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,725/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,380 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 303.7% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 69.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.8 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-54,654 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $66.33 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $66-68.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $68.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $67.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $960 | $-49,946 | +$4,645 | +$942 |
| +2.5% | $68.67 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-45 | $-49,999 | +$4,592 | -$63 |
| +5% | $70.35 (1.1σ) | $-1,050 | $-50,053 | +$4,538 | -$1,068 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-43,770 | $-52,317 | +$2,274 | -$29,658 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$66 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.44/sh | +$718 cycle +$1,583 [+$437…+$784] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$49,604 NOT cap gain +$4,987 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$71 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.84/sh | +$421 cycle +$1,286 [-$67…+$399] · 68% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$47,353 NOT cap gain +$7,238 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$69 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$55 cycle +$920 [-$342…+$31] · 27% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$48,571 NOT cap gain +$6,020 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$73 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$21 cycle +$886 [-$541…-$36] · 23% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$46,332 NOT cap gain +$8,259 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.63/sh | -$815 cycle +$50 [-$1,563…-$942] · 1% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$42,907 NOT cap gain +$11,684 |
| budget: banked $865 debit $815 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,535/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,244/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,375/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,501 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 254.2% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 57.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-45,542 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $65.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $66-68.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $68.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $66.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $865 | $-50,322 | +$4,269 | +$850 |
| +2.5% | $68.16 (≤1σ, normal week) | $34 | $-50,209 | +$4,382 | +$19 |
| +5% | $69.83 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-798 | $-50,096 | +$4,495 | -$812 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-36,660 | $-47,559 | +$7,032 | -$24,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$66 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.44/sh | +$721 cycle +$1,661 [+$419…+$743] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$49,811 NOT cap gain +$4,780 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$70 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.84/sh | +$422 cycle +$1,362 [-$105…+$378] · 66% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$47,561 NOT cap gain +$7,030 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$73 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$23 cycle +$963 [-$579…-$63] · 21% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$46,540 NOT cap gain +$8,051 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$69 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$943 [-$428…-$49] · 20% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$48,548 NOT cap gain +$6,043 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.62/sh | -$811 cycle +$129 [-$1,613…-$964] · 0% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$43,112 NOT cap gain +$11,479 |
| budget: banked $940 debit $811 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$129 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,521/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,525/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,656/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,676 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 255.3% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 58.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-45,540 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $65.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $65-67.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $67.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $66.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $940 | $-50,531 | +$4,060 | +$925 |
| +2.5% | $67.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $115 | $-50,419 | +$4,172 | +$100 |
| +5% | $69.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-710 | $-50,306 | +$4,285 | -$725 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-36,835 | $-47,734 | +$6,857 | -$25,075 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.45/sh | +$580 cycle +$1,448 [+$326…+$563] · 98% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$50,588 NOT cap gain +$4,003 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$69 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.85/sh | +$338 cycle +$1,206 [-$116…+$242] · 63% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$48,282 NOT cap gain +$6,309 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$72 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$20 cycle +$888 [-$501…-$98] · 17% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$47,180 NOT cap gain +$7,411 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$68 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$7 cycle +$875 [-$363…-$77] · 17% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$49,181 NOT cap gain +$5,410 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.15/sh | -$859 cycle +$9 [-$1,621…-$1,053] | 90% surv 89% | -$41,524 NOT cap gain +$13,067 |
| budget: banked $868 debit $859 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $832/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,255/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,392/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,825 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 206.1% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 46.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.3 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-36,434 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-67.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $67.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $868 | $-51,169 | +$3,422 | +$856 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $218 | $-50,895 | +$3,696 | +$206 |
| +5% | $68.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-432 | $-50,622 | +$3,969 | -$444 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-29,752 | $-43,003 | +$11,588 | -$20,344 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$64 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.46/sh | +$584 cycle +$1,544 [+$331…+$510] · 99% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$51,061 NOT cap gain +$3,530 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$67 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.20/sh | +$478 cycle +$1,438 [+$57…+$338] · 81% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$49,187 NOT cap gain +$5,404 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$71 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$21 cycle +$981 [-$484…-$160] · 13% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$47,654 NOT cap gain +$6,937 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$67 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$11 cycle +$971 [-$350…-$121] · 13% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$49,653 NOT cap gain +$4,938 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.12/sh | -$849 cycle +$111 [-$1,585…-$1,116] | 90% surv 89% | -$41,991 NOT cap gain +$12,600 |
| budget: banked $960 debit $849 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $812/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +15% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 58% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,737/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,133 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 208.0% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 47.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.3 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-36,458 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $63.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $63-66.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $66.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $64.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $960 | $-51,645 | +$2,946 | +$948 |
| +2.5% | $65.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $320 | $-51,376 | +$3,215 | +$308 |
| +5% | $67.20 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-320 | $-51,107 | +$3,484 | -$332 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-30,060 | $-43,311 | +$11,280 | -$20,652 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$64 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.46/sh | +$585 cycle +$1,669 [+$313…+$501] · 98% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$51,220 NOT cap gain +$3,371 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$67 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.19/sh | +$478 cycle +$1,562 [+$26…+$330] · 77% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$49,347 NOT cap gain +$5,244 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$67 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$13 cycle +$1,097 [-$380…-$123] · 14% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$49,812 NOT cap gain +$4,779 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$70 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$22 cycle +$1,106 [-$532…-$163] · 14% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$47,814 NOT cap gain +$6,777 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.11/sh | -$845 cycle +$239 [-$1,656…-$1,113] | 90% surv 89% | -$42,146 NOT cap gain +$12,445 |
| budget: banked $1,084 debit $845 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$239 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $803/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,065/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +30% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,202/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,209 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 208.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 47.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.3 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-36,462 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $62.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $63-66.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $66.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $63.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,084 | $-51,805 | +$2,786 | +$1,072 |
| +2.5% | $65.09 (≤1σ, normal week) | $449 | $-51,538 | +$3,053 | +$437 |
| +5% | $66.67 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-186 | $-51,271 | +$3,320 | -$198 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-30,136 | $-43,387 | +$11,204 | -$20,728 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$62 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.47/sh | +$441 cycle +$1,341 [+$233…+$350] · 98% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$52,113 NOT cap gain +$2,478 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$66 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.19/sh | +$358 cycle +$1,258 [+$5…+$215] · 76% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$50,216 NOT cap gain +$4,375 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$66 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$13 cycle +$913 [-$291…-$109] · 10% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$50,561 NOT cap gain +$4,030 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$69 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$17 cycle +$917 [-$410…-$151] · 9% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$48,568 NOT cap gain +$6,023 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.09/sh | -$627 cycle +$273 [-$1,251…-$858] | 90% surv 89% | -$42,678 NOT cap gain +$11,913 |
| budget: banked $900 debit $627 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$273 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $587/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,518/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,120 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 157.7% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 35.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-27,363 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $61.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $62-65.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $62.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $900 | $-52,554 | +$2,037 | +$891 |
| +2.5% | $64.06 (≤1σ, normal week) | $431 | $-52,135 | +$2,456 | +$422 |
| +5% | $65.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-38 | $-51,716 | +$2,875 | -$46 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-22,815 | $-38,418 | +$16,173 | -$15,759 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$62 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.47/sh | +$442 cycle +$1,432 [+$220…+$337] · 98% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$52,306 NOT cap gain +$2,285 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$65 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.19/sh | +$357 cycle +$1,347 [-$14…+$186] · 72% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$50,411 NOT cap gain +$4,180 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$65 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$14 cycle +$1,004 [-$303…-$124] · 9% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$50,754 NOT cap gain +$3,837 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$69 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$18 cycle +$1,008 [-$431…-$172] · 9% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$48,762 NOT cap gain +$5,829 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.08/sh | -$623 cycle +$367 [-$1,279…-$874] | 91% surv 89% | -$42,868 NOT cap gain +$11,723 |
| budget: banked $990 debit $623 (63% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$367 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $580/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,712/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +19% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,856/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,180 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 158.1% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 36.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-27,356 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $61.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $61-65.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $62.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $990 | $-52,748 | +$1,843 | +$981 |
| +2.5% | $63.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $525 | $-52,333 | +$2,258 | +$516 |
| +5% | $65.10 (≤1σ, normal week) | $60 | $-51,917 | +$2,674 | +$51 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-22,875 | $-38,478 | +$16,113 | -$15,819 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$61 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.48/sh | +$444 cycle +$1,554 [+$213…+$318] · 97% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$52,752 NOT cap gain +$1,839 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$64 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.19/sh | +$356 cycle +$1,466 [-$38…+$174] · 69% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$50,860 NOT cap gain +$3,731 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$64 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$16 cycle +$1,126 [-$320…-$129] · 6% credit | 75% surv 65% | -$51,200 NOT cap gain +$3,391 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$68 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$18 cycle +$1,128 [-$461…-$184] · 5% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$49,210 NOT cap gain +$5,381 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.06/sh | -$617 cycle +$493 [-$1,317…-$886] | 91% surv 90% | -$43,310 NOT cap gain +$11,281 |
| budget: banked $1,110 debit $617 (56% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$493 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $565/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,162/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +33% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 67% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,306/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,360 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 159.2% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 36.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-27,370 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $60.39 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $60-64.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $64.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $61.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,110 | $-53,196 | +$1,395 | +$1,101 |
| +2.5% | $62.52 (≤1σ, normal week) | $653 | $-52,787 | +$1,804 | +$644 |
| +5% | $64.05 (≤1σ, normal week) | $195 | $-52,378 | +$2,213 | +$186 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-23,055 | $-38,658 | +$15,933 | -$15,999 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$60 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.48/sh | +$445 cycle +$1,690 | 69% surv 54% | -$52,892 NOT cap gain +$1,699 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$63 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$51 cycle +$1,296 | 74% surv 64% | -$51,875 NOT cap gain +$2,716 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$67 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$17 cycle +$1,262 | 78% surv 72% | -$49,635 NOT cap gain +$4,956 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.09/sh | -$627 cycle +$618 | 91% surv 90% | -$43,461 NOT cap gain +$11,130 |
| budget: banked $1,245 debit $627 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$618 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $521/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,669/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,120/mo) | +50% |
| vs normal income ($6,240/mo) | 75% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,812/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,525 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 160.2% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 36.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-27,378 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $59.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $59-64.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $64.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $60.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,245 | $-53,337 | +$1,254 | +$1,236 |
| +2.5% | $61.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $795 | $-53,227 | +$1,364 | +$786 |
| +5% | $63.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $345 | $-52,825 | +$1,766 | +$336 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (8.7σ) | $-23,220 | $-38,823 | +$15,768 | -$16,164 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $637.5C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $528.20 | $654.07 | $0.33 | $0.33 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 109.30 OTM = 20.7% (5.7x a typical daily move). The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,955 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $654.07 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) | $116.57 | $126.30 | $1.23 | $1.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.43 OTM = 7.2% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $1.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$625 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $126.30 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) | $160.54 | $181.89 | $1.08 | $1.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.46 OTM = 12.1% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $1.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,604 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $179.10 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) | $10.63 | $16.07 | - | - | OK | expiring OTM, penny buyback at the close, then re-sell |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $331.57 | $352.35 | $1.40 | $1.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.43 OTM = 5.6% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $1.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,450 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $352.35 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $331.57 | $352.31 | $1.40 | $1.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.43 OTM = 5.6% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $1.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,132 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $352.31 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $192.13 | $211.74 | $0.52 | $0.52 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.87 OTM = 9.3% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $0.52 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$846 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $211.74 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $160.54 | $187.68 | $2.08 | $2.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 24.46 OTM = 15.2% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $2.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,108 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $187.68 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $17.13 | $20.75 | $0.17 | $0.17 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.37 OTM = 19.7% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,013 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $20.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $355C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $325.70 | $362.70 | $6.93 | $6.93 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 29.30 OTM = 9.0% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $6.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$765 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $362.70 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $94.70 | $113.05 | $1.81 | $1.81 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.30 OTM = 16.2% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $1.81 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,200 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $113.05 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $94.70 | $113.08 | $1.81 | $1.81 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.30 OTM = 16.2% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $1.81 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,028 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $113.08 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $160.54 | $198.70 | $2.06 | $2.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 34.46 OTM. The $2.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,095 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $198.70 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $5.06 | $7.35 | $0.12 | $0.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.94 OTM = 38.3% (4.8x a typical daily move). The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $7.35 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (22d) | $374.10 | $396.32 | $2.75 | $2.75 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.90 OTM = 4.3% (3.1x a typical daily move). The $2.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,268 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $396.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (22d) | $391.24 | $505.00 | $8.43 | $8.43 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 83.76 OTM = 21.4% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $8.43 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,985 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $505.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (50d) | $110.43 | $124.07 | $6.08 | $6.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.57 OTM = 8.7% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $6.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,022 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.07 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (50d) | $331.57 | $374.80 | $4.10 | $4.10 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 38.43 OTM = 11.6% (5.8x a typical daily move). The $4.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,375 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $374.80 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IGV ↗ BORDERLINE 21% | Main:1299 | 12 | $92.66 | $86.97 | 0.0% | $98 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · 84% survhist 99% | 32%hist 18% | $420 | $1,575/mo (27%) | $5,748/mo | sell 12x $98 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $86.97. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: banked so far already lowers the effective floor to $86.28; selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.35/sh → floor ~$85.93 next cycle, ~$85.58 the cycle after. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| AMZN ↗⚡ER TODAY | Joint:1782 | 10 | $232.28 | $243.15 | 4.7% | $250 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · 82% survhist 99% ⚡ CROSSES EARNINGS | 38%hist 18% | $2,420 | $18,150/mo (89%) | $20,300/mo | sell 10x $250 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $243.15. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: banked so far already lowers the effective floor to $238.40; selling the 🎯 banks ~$2.42/sh → floor ~$235.98 next cycle, ~$233.56 the cycle after. Whole ~18 Aug on the 🎯 income alone, never selling below the floor. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| SPY ↗ | Neville:0865 | 12 | $735.51 | $696.71 | 0.0% | $745 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · 81% survhist 99% | 39%hist 18% | $1,116 | $8,370/mo (35%) | $23,966/mo | sell 12x $745 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $696.71. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: banked so far already lowers the effective floor to $695.22; selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.93/sh → floor ~$694.29 next cycle, ~$693.36 the cycle after. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Headroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $24.34 | $17.47 | +39.3% |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $797.57 | $792.36 | +0.7% |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $17.13 | $39.13 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $17.13 | $30.29 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 43.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $17.13 | $44.46 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| ETHA | Main:1299 | 50 | $14.49 | $17.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 16.4% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $36.65 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC20-1782 | Joint:1782 | 50 | $10.63 | $24.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250 | $10.63 | $26.40 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 59.7% below BE SS |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50 | $17.13 | 50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (22d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (22d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (50d) |
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200 | $22.69 | 200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)] |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $355C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $638C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10 | $108.93 | 10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (50d) |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $12.45 | 25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 130 | 55% | 72% | +16pp |
| 60-70% | 196 | 64% | 72% | +8pp |
| 70-80% | 259 | 76% | 96% | +20pp |
| 80-90% | 305 | 84% | 96% | +12pp |
| 90-100% | 528 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 28% touch rate over 1418 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 110 real buyback(s) recorded · 42 roll(s), net +$1.08/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 42 real rolls: buyback $4.25/sh, replacement credit financed 126% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.08/sh (28 of 42 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.