FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $121,834/mo (55% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $27,381/mo ⚠ 4 negative E[net] ⚡ $33,619/mo of that is earnings-blocked (4 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $506,681 locked in if all 11 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | TUNED | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Tuned | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| APP ↗⚡ER 6d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 1 | $394.50 | $603.14 | 1 × $485 $460 cyc · $1,725/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:19%hist 5% | 1 × $460 $580 cyc · $2,175/mo 84% survhist 99% · T:33%hist 18% | 🎯⚡ 1 × $450 $930 cyc · $3,488/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:40%hist 18% | 1 × $422.50 $1,740 cyc · $6,525/mo 71% survhist 96% · T:61%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $2,111 | -$14,384 (112.4% IC) | 52.9% |
| CLSK ↗⚡ER 7d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 25 | $12.37 | $17.40 | 25 × $16 $125 cyc · $469/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:12%hist 5% | 19 × $14 $361 cyc · $1,354/mo 80% survhist 96% · T:42%hist 28% | 🎯⚡ 19 × $13.50 $551 cyc · $2,066/mo 73% survhist 96% · T:56%hist 43% | 19 × $12.50 $1,083 cyc · $4,061/mo 56% survhist 79% · T:94%hist 90% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$6,867 (73.4% IC) | 40.7% |
| COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 20 | $78.20 | $96.32 | 20 × $87 $200 cyc · $750/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:15%hist 5% | 15 × $82 $750 cyc · $2,812/mo 75% survhist 96% · T:51%hist 43% | 🎯 17 × $81 $1,105 cyc · $4,144/mo 69% survhist 80% · T:63%hist 51% | 17 × $78.50 $2,210 cyc · $8,288/mo 54% survhist 79% · T:96%hist 90% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $1,334 | -$24,937 (43.9% IC) | 23.2% |
| CRWV ↗⚡ER 12d Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $63.60 | $132.12 | — | 5 × $72 $500 cyc · $1,875/mo 80% survhist 96% · T:42%hist 28% | 🎯 5 × $69 $755 cyc · $2,831/mo 72% survhist 96% · T:60%hist 43% | 5 × $64 $1,490 cyc · $5,588/mo 55% survhist 79% · T:97%hist 90% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $301 | -$30,806 (301.3% IC) | 107.7% |
| ENPH ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 10 | $35.60 | $59.45 | 10 × $42.50 $150 cyc · $562/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:19%hist 5% | 9 × $39 $414 cyc · $1,552/mo 77% survhist 96% · T:48%hist 28% | 🎯 9 × $38 $603 cyc · $2,261/mo 71% survhist 96% · T:61%hist 51% | 9 × $36 $1,305 cyc · $4,894/mo 56% survhist 79% · T:93%hist 90% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $2,164 | -$18,699 (256.1% IC) | 67.0% |
| INTC ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $83.79 | $117.80 | 5 × $98 $365 cyc · $1,369/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 13% | 🎯 5 × $96 $465 cyc · $1,744/mo 87% survhist 99% · T:27%hist 13% | 5 × $92.50 $710 cyc · $2,662/mo 80% survhist 96% · T:42%hist 28% | 5 × $87 $1,350 cyc · $5,062/mo 64% survhist 80% · T:75%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $2,071 | -$10,436 (72.0% IC) | 40.6% |
| IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ 🎯 cover hedge 20 × $34 floor = hedge $8,164/mo Main:1299 · Next Fri | 20 | $31.40 | $51.33 | — | 15 × $37 $840 cyc · $3,150/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28% | 17 × $36 $1,275 cyc · $4,781/mo 77% survhist 96% · T:49%hist 28% | 19 × $33 $2,546 cyc · $9,548/mo 63% survhist 80% · T:80%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$32,486 (101.5% IC) | 63.5% |
| IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ 🎯 cover hedge 20 × $34 floor = hedge $8,164/mo Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 20 | $31.40 | $51.33 | — | 15 × $37 $840 cyc · $3,150/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28% | 17 × $36 $1,275 cyc · $4,781/mo 77% survhist 96% · T:49%hist 28% | 19 × $33 $2,546 cyc · $9,548/mo 63% survhist 80% · T:80%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$32,486 (101.5% IC) | 63.5% |
| IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 20 | $31.40 | $62.53 | — | 15 × $37 $840 cyc · $3,150/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28% | 🎯 17 × $36 $1,275 cyc · $4,781/mo 77% survhist 96% · T:49%hist 28% | 19 × $33 $2,546 cyc · $9,548/mo 63% survhist 80% · T:80%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $792 | -$43,828 (730.5% IC) | 99.1% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 20 | $31.40 | $72.10 | — | 15 × $37 $840 cyc · $3,150/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:41%hist 28% | 🎯 17 × $36 $1,275 cyc · $4,781/mo 77% survhist 96% · T:49%hist 28% | 19 × $33 $2,546 cyc · $9,548/mo 63% survhist 80% · T:80%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$60,102 (438.7% IC) | 129.6% |
| MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 7d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 200 | $10.45 | $14.56 | 200 × $13 $1,600 cyc · $6,000/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:14%hist 5% | 🎯⚡ 145 × $12 $2,465 cyc · $9,244/mo 84% survhist 99% · T:34%hist 18% | 163 × $11.50 $3,749 cyc · $14,059/mo 76% survhist 96% · T:51%hist 43% | 183 × $10.50 $7,503 cyc · $28,136/mo 54% survhist 79% · T:97%hist 90% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | - | -$34,680 (315.3% IC) | 39.3% |
| MU-LC880 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 5 | $752.99 | $1,070.67 | 5 × $915 $3,375 cyc · $12,656/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:21%hist 13% | 🎯 5 × $880 $5,275 cyc · $19,781/mo 85% survhist 99% · T:31%hist 18% | 5 × $850 $7,675 cyc · $28,781/mo 80% survhist 96% · T:43%hist 28% | 5 × $795 $14,750 cyc · $55,312/mo 66% survhist 80% · T:72%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $12,776 | -$90,058 (121.2% IC) | 42.2% |
| MU-LC970 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 2 | $752.99 | $1,261.98 | 2 × $915 $1,350 cyc · $5,062/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:21%hist 13% | 🎯 2 × $880 $2,110 cyc · $7,912/mo 85% survhist 99% · T:31%hist 18% | 2 × $850 $3,070 cyc · $11,512/mo 80% survhist 96% · T:43%hist 28% | 2 × $795 $5,900 cyc · $22,125/mo 66% survhist 80% · T:72%hist 59% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $4,427 | -$74,287 (148.6% IC) | 67.6% |
| NEM ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 5 | $92.51 | $118.11 | — | 🎯 5 × $98 $260 cyc · $975/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:38%hist 18% | 5 × $96 $360 cyc · $1,350/mo 72% survhist 96% · T:57%hist 43% | 4 × $93 $712 cyc · $2,670/mo 54% survhist 79% · T:93%hist 90% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $442 | -$9,794 (72.4% IC) | 27.7% |
| QCOM ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 5 | $149.13 | $221.94 | 🎯 5 × $1708d $1,550 cyc · $5,812/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 5% | 5 × $175 $1,115 cyc · $4,181/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:12%hist 5% | 🎯 5 × $170 $1,550 cyc · $5,812/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 5% | 5 × $157.50 $3,600 cyc · $13,500/mo 72% survhist 96% · T:59%hist 43% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $644 | -$24,420 (143.6% IC) | 48.8% |
| RKLB ↗⚡ER 11d RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 6 | $60.25 | $153.52 | — | 🎯 6 × $69 $558 cyc · $2,092/mo 81% survhist 99% · T:40%hist 18% | 6 × $66.50 $786 cyc · $2,948/mo 75% survhist 96% · T:53%hist 43% | 6 × $61 $1,692 cyc · $6,345/mo 56% survhist 79% · T:93%hist 90% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $863 | -$50,151 (314.8% IC) | 154.8% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗⚡ER 6d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 125 | $18.85 | $34.46 | 🎯⚡ 125 × $30.50 $1,425 cyc · $5,344/mo 99+% survhist 100% · T:0%hist 1% | 55 × $21.50 $2,475 cyc · $9,281/mo 79% survhist 96% · T:45%hist 28% | 83 × $21.50 $3,735 cyc · $14,006/mo 79% survhist 96% · T:45%hist 28% | 125 × $20.50 $7,500 cyc · $28,125/mo 71% survhist 96% · T:62%hist 51% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $879 | -$48,130 (174.2% IC) | 82.8% |
| TOTAL (17) | 494 | following every 🎯 $24,962 cyc · $93,608/mo | $10,600 cyc · $39,750/mo 10 of 17 | $20,688 cyc · $77,580/mo | $30,679 cyc · $115,046/mo | $61,019 cyc · $228,821/mo | $28,804 | -$606,553 | |||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$485 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.69/sh | +$269 cycle +$729 [-$78…+$820] · 70% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$13,124 NOT cap gain +$8,874 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$488 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.62/sh | +$162 cycle +$622 [-$220…+$690] · 64% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$12,961 NOT cap gain +$9,037 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$500 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.95/sh | +$195 cycle +$655 [-$276…+$779] · 62% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$11,803 NOT cap gain +$10,195 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$513 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.47/sh | -$347 cycle +$113 [-$937…+$203] · 36% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$11,220 NOT cap gain +$10,778 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $347 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$113 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,210/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,725/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -47% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,677/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,354 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 88.7% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 23.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,068 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $480.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $480-490.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $490.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $485.00 (1.6σ) | $460 | $-13,393 | +$8,605 | +$430 |
| +2.5% | $497.12 (1.8σ) | $-752 | $-13,514 | +$8,484 | -$782 |
| +5% | $509.25 (2.0σ) | $-1,965 | $-13,636 | +$8,362 | -$1,995 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-9,840 | $-14,423 | +$7,575 | -$9,570 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$468 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$5.49/sh | +$549 cycle +$1,129 [+$36…+$933] · 78% credit | 71% surv 57% | -$14,254 NOT cap gain +$7,744 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$460 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$3.40/sh | +$340 cycle +$920 [-$95…+$673] · 68% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$15,183 NOT cap gain +$6,815 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$466 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.47/sh | +$47 cycle +$627 [-$439…+$321] · 45% credit | 70% surv 56% | -$14,981 NOT cap gain +$7,017 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$478 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.63/sh | +$63 cycle +$643 [-$522…+$376] · 44% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$13,840 NOT cap gain +$8,158 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$490 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$4.33/sh | -$433 cycle +$147 [-$1,095…-$178] · 21% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$13,211 NOT cap gain +$8,787 |
| budget: banked $580 debit $433 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$147 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,821/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,175/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,127/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,734 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 107.3% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 28.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,198 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $455.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $455-467.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $467.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $460.00 (1.1σ) | $580 | $-15,523 | +$6,475 | +$550 |
| +2.5% | $471.50 (1.4σ) | $-570 | $-15,638 | +$6,360 | -$600 |
| +5% | $483.00 (1.6σ) | $-1,720 | $-15,753 | +$6,245 | -$1,750 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-12,220 | $-16,803 | +$5,195 | -$11,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$458 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$5.72/sh | +$572 cycle +$1,502 [-$49…+$809] · 71% credit | 71% surv 57% | -$14,781 NOT cap gain +$7,217 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$450 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$3.66/sh | +$366 cycle +$1,296 [-$163…+$568] · 62% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$15,707 NOT cap gain +$6,291 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$468 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.88/sh | +$88 cycle +$1,018 [-$617…+$303] · 38% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$14,365 NOT cap gain +$7,633 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$458 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$25 cycle +$955 [-$565…+$201] · 35% credit | 71% surv 58% | -$15,328 NOT cap gain +$6,670 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$496 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$8.12/sh | -$812 cycle +$118 [-$1,695…-$669] · 8% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$12,790 NOT cap gain +$9,208 |
| budget: banked $930 debit $812 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,090/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,488/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,440/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,384 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 112.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 29.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,133 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $445.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $446-460.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $460.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $450.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $930 | $-16,073 | +$5,925 | +$900 |
| +2.5% | $461.25 (1.2σ) | $-195 | $-16,185 | +$5,813 | -$225 |
| +5% | $472.50 (1.4σ) | $-1,320 | $-16,298 | +$5,700 | -$1,350 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-12,870 | $-17,453 | +$4,545 | -$12,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$430 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.26/sh | +$626 cycle +$2,366 [-$172…+$520] · 61% credit | 71% surv 58% | -$16,392 NOT cap gain +$5,606 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$422 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$4.30/sh | +$430 cycle +$2,170 [-$245…+$339] · 50% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$17,308 NOT cap gain +$4,690 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$440 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.48/sh | +$148 cycle +$1,888 [-$735…-$2] · 25% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$15,970 NOT cap gain +$6,028 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$430 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.89/sh | +$89 cycle +$1,829 [-$636…-$36] · 24% credit | 71% surv 58% | -$16,929 NOT cap gain +$5,069 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$513 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$17.35/sh | -$1,735 cycle +$5 [-$3,086…-$2,062] | 88% surv 87% | -$11,328 NOT cap gain +$10,670 |
| budget: banked $1,740 debit $1,735 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,280/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,525/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,477/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,324 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 127.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 33.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,233 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $418.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $418-442.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $442.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $422.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,740 | $-17,738 | +$4,260 | +$1,710 |
| +2.5% | $433.06 (≤1σ, normal week) | $684 | $-17,844 | +$4,154 | +$654 |
| +5% | $443.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-373 | $-17,949 | +$4,049 | -$402 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-14,810 | $-19,393 | +$2,605 | -$14,540 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$635 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$3.53/sh | -$353 cycle -$348 | 68% surv 53% | -$701 NOT cap gain +$21,297 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$636 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.96/sh | +$196 cycle +$201 | 69% surv 53% | -$107 NOT cap gain +$21,891 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $19/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-29/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,013 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $628.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $629-635.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $635.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $635.00 (4.2σ) | $5 | $-348 | +$21,650 | +$4,975 |
| +2.5% | $650.88 (4.5σ) | $-1,582 | $-507 | +$21,491 | +$4,975 |
| +5% | $666.75 (4.8σ) | $-3,170 | $-666 | +$21,332 | +$4,975 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$600 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.78/sh | -$178 cycle -$173 | 68% surv 53% | -$3,676 NOT cap gain +$18,322 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$608 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$27 cycle +$32 | 70% surv 56% | -$2,751 NOT cap gain +$19,247 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $19/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-29/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$309 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 2.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 0.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,020 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $594.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $594-600.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $600.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $600.00 (3.6σ) | $5 | $-3,498 | +$18,500 | +$1,475 |
| +2.5% | $615.00 (3.9σ) | $-1,495 | $-3,648 | +$18,350 | +$1,475 |
| +5% | $630.00 (4.1σ) | $-2,995 | $-3,798 | +$18,200 | +$1,475 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$590 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.32/sh | -$132 cycle -$127 | 68% surv 53% | -$4,530 NOT cap gain +$17,468 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$598 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.76/sh | +$76 cycle +$81 | 70% surv 57% | -$3,602 NOT cap gain +$18,396 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $19/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-29/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,309 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 10.2% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 2.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,028 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $584.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $584-590.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $590.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $590.00 (3.4σ) | $5 | $-4,398 | +$17,600 | +$475 |
| +2.5% | $604.75 (3.7σ) | $-1,470 | $-4,546 | +$17,452 | +$475 |
| +5% | $619.50 (3.9σ) | $-2,945 | $-4,693 | +$17,305 | +$475 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$585 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.09/sh | -$109 cycle -$104 | 68% surv 53% | -$4,957 NOT cap gain +$17,041 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$593 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.00/sh | +$100 cycle +$105 | 70% surv 57% | -$4,028 NOT cap gain +$17,970 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $19/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-29/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,809 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 14.1% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 3.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,030 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $579.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $579-585.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $585.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $585.00 (3.3σ) | $5 | $-4,848 | +$17,150 | -$25 |
| +2.5% | $599.62 (3.6σ) | $-1,458 | $-4,994 | +$17,004 | -$25 |
| +5% | $614.25 (3.9σ) | $-2,920 | $-5,140 | +$16,858 | -$25 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$580 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.86/sh | -$86 cycle -$76 | 68% surv 53% | -$5,379 NOT cap gain +$16,619 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$588 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.24/sh | +$124 cycle +$134 | 70% surv 57% | -$4,449 NOT cap gain +$17,549 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $38/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-10/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,304 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 18.0% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 4.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,030 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $574.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $574-580.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $580.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $580.00 (3.3σ) | $10 | $-5,293 | +$16,705 | -$20 |
| +2.5% | $594.50 (3.5σ) | $-1,440 | $-5,438 | +$16,560 | -$520 |
| +5% | $609.00 (3.8σ) | $-2,890 | $-5,583 | +$16,415 | -$520 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$575 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.64/sh | -$64 cycle -$49 | 68% surv 53% | -$5,802 NOT cap gain +$16,196 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$583 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.47/sh | +$147 cycle +$162 | 70% surv 57% | -$4,871 NOT cap gain +$17,127 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $56/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,799 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 21.9% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 5.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,030 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $569.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $569-575.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $575.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $575.00 (3.2σ) | $15 | $-5,738 | +$16,260 | -$15 |
| +2.5% | $589.38 (3.4σ) | $-1,422 | $-5,882 | +$16,116 | -$1,015 |
| +5% | $603.75 (3.7σ) | $-2,860 | $-6,026 | +$15,972 | -$1,015 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$570 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.43/sh | -$43 cycle +$7 | 68% surv 53% | -$6,196 NOT cap gain +$15,802 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$578 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.70/sh | +$170 cycle +$220 | 70% surv 57% | -$5,263 NOT cap gain +$16,735 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $140/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,264 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 25.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 6.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,023 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $564.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $564-570.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $570.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $570.00 (3.1σ) | $50 | $-6,153 | +$15,845 | +$20 |
| +2.5% | $584.25 (3.3σ) | $-1,375 | $-6,296 | +$15,702 | -$1,405 |
| +5% | $598.50 (3.6σ) | $-2,800 | $-6,438 | +$15,560 | -$1,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$560 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.00/sh | -$0 cycle +$40 | 68% surv 53% | -$7,063 NOT cap gain +$14,935 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$568 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.14/sh | +$214 cycle +$254 | 70% surv 57% | -$6,129 NOT cap gain +$15,869 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $102/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,274 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 33.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 8.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,030 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $554.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $554-560.73 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $560.73 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $560.00 (2.9σ) | $40 | $-7,063 | +$14,935 | +$10 |
| +2.5% | $574.00 (3.1σ) | $-1,360 | $-7,203 | +$14,795 | -$1,390 |
| +5% | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-2,760 | $-7,343 | +$14,655 | -$2,490 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$555 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$20 cycle +$70 | 68% surv 53% | -$7,483 NOT cap gain +$14,515 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$563 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.35/sh | +$235 cycle +$285 | 70% surv 57% | -$6,548 NOT cap gain +$15,450 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $140/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,764 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 37.2% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 9.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,053 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $549.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $549-556.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $556.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $555.00 (2.8σ) | $50 | $-7,503 | +$14,495 | +$20 |
| +2.5% | $568.88 (3.1σ) | $-1,338 | $-7,642 | +$14,356 | -$1,368 |
| +5% | $582.75 (3.3σ) | $-2,725 | $-7,780 | +$14,218 | -$2,755 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-3,250 | $-7,833 | +$14,165 | -$2,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$550 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.40/sh | +$40 cycle +$145 | 68% surv 53% | -$7,858 NOT cap gain +$14,140 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$550 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$8 cycle +$113 | 69% surv 53% | -$7,845 NOT cap gain +$14,153 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$560 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$5 cycle +$110 | 70% surv 58% | -$6,948 NOT cap gain +$15,050 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$566 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.35/sh | -$35 cycle +$70 | 72% surv 60% | -$6,538 NOT cap gain +$15,460 |
| budget: banked $105 debit $35 (34% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $5,372/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $394/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $346/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,209 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 40.7% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 10.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,016 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $544.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $544-551.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $551.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $550.00 (2.7σ) | $105 | $-7,898 | +$14,100 | +$75 |
| +2.5% | $563.75 (3.0σ) | $-1,270 | $-8,035 | +$13,963 | -$1,300 |
| +5% | $577.50 (3.2σ) | $-2,645 | $-8,173 | +$13,825 | -$2,675 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-3,695 | $-8,278 | +$13,720 | -$3,425 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$545 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.60/sh | +$60 cycle +$155 | 68% surv 53% | -$8,298 NOT cap gain +$13,700 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$546 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.28/sh | +$28 cycle +$123 | 69% surv 53% | -$8,285 NOT cap gain +$13,713 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$556 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$26 cycle +$121 | 70% surv 58% | -$7,387 NOT cap gain +$14,611 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$560 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.15/sh | -$15 cycle +$80 | 72% surv 60% | -$6,978 NOT cap gain +$15,020 |
| budget: banked $95 debit $15 (16% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $5,357/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $356/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $308/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,719 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 44.7% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 11.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,026 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $539.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $540-546.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $546.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $545.00 (2.6σ) | $95 | $-8,358 | +$13,640 | +$65 |
| +2.5% | $558.62 (2.9σ) | $-1,268 | $-8,494 | +$13,504 | -$1,298 |
| +5% | $572.25 (3.1σ) | $-2,630 | $-8,630 | +$13,368 | -$2,660 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-4,205 | $-8,788 | +$13,210 | -$3,935 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$540 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.80/sh | +$80 cycle +$200 [-$129…+$702] · 68% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$8,703 NOT cap gain +$13,295 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$540 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.47/sh | +$47 cycle +$167 [-$165…+$670] · 68% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$8,691 NOT cap gain +$13,307 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$556 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$5 cycle +$125 [-$260…+$702] · 64% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$7,383 NOT cap gain +$14,615 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $402/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,194 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 48.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 12.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,038 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $534.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $535-541.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $541.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $540.00 (2.6σ) | $120 | $-8,783 | +$13,215 | +$90 |
| +2.5% | $553.50 (2.8σ) | $-1,230 | $-8,918 | +$13,080 | -$1,260 |
| +5% | $567.00 (3.0σ) | $-2,580 | $-9,053 | +$12,945 | -$2,610 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-4,680 | $-9,263 | +$12,735 | -$4,410 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$535 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.99/sh | +$99 cycle +$224 [+$23…+$1,139] · 76% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$9,129 NOT cap gain +$12,869 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$536 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.66/sh | +$66 cycle +$191 [-$15…+$1,106] · 72% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$9,117 NOT cap gain +$12,881 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$550 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$25 cycle +$150 [-$124…+$1,184] · 70% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$7,808 NOT cap gain +$14,190 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $469/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $421/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,689 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 52.3% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 13.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,030 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $529.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $530-536.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $536.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $535.00 (2.5σ) | $125 | $-9,228 | +$12,770 | +$95 |
| +2.5% | $548.38 (2.7σ) | $-1,212 | $-9,362 | +$12,636 | -$1,242 |
| +5% | $561.75 (2.9σ) | $-2,550 | $-9,496 | +$12,502 | -$2,580 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-5,175 | $-9,758 | +$12,240 | -$4,905 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$530 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.17/sh | +$117 cycle +$267 [+$177…+$985] · 84% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$9,536 NOT cap gain +$12,462 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$533 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$11 cycle +$161 [+$47…+$863] · 75% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$9,372 NOT cap gain +$12,626 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$546 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.44/sh | +$44 cycle +$194 [+$44…+$988] · 75% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$8,214 NOT cap gain +$13,784 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -83% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $514/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,164 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 56.0% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 14.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,030 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $524.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $525-531.83 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $531.83 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $530.00 (2.4σ) | $150 | $-9,653 | +$12,345 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $543.25 (2.6σ) | $-1,175 | $-9,786 | +$12,212 | -$1,205 |
| +5% | $556.50 (2.8σ) | $-2,500 | $-9,918 | +$12,080 | -$2,530 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-5,650 | $-10,233 | +$11,765 | -$5,380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$525 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.36/sh | +$136 cycle +$286 [+$65…+$976] · 78% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$9,967 NOT cap gain +$12,031 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$540 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.63/sh | +$63 cycle +$213 [-$74…+$978] · 72% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$8,645 NOT cap gain +$13,353 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$528 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.30/sh | +$30 cycle +$180 [-$56…+$852] · 70% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$9,803 NOT cap gain +$12,195 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -83% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $514/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,664 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 59.9% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 15.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,040 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $519.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $520-526.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $526.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $525.00 (2.3σ) | $150 | $-10,103 | +$11,895 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $538.12 (2.5σ) | $-1,162 | $-10,234 | +$11,764 | -$1,192 |
| +5% | $551.25 (2.8σ) | $-2,475 | $-10,365 | +$11,633 | -$2,505 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-6,150 | $-10,733 | +$11,265 | -$5,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$520 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.54/sh | +$154 cycle +$334 [-$19…+$886] · 74% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$10,369 NOT cap gain +$11,629 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$523 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.48/sh | +$48 cycle +$228 [-$132…+$749] · 68% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$10,205 NOT cap gain +$11,793 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$536 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.81/sh | +$81 cycle +$261 [-$176…+$870] · 68% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$9,047 NOT cap gain +$12,951 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $675/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -79% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $627/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,134 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 63.6% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 16.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,040 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $514.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $515-522.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $522.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $520.00 (2.2σ) | $180 | $-10,523 | +$11,475 | +$150 |
| +2.5% | $533.00 (2.4σ) | $-1,120 | $-10,653 | +$11,345 | -$1,150 |
| +5% | $546.00 (2.7σ) | $-2,420 | $-10,783 | +$11,215 | -$2,450 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-6,620 | $-11,203 | +$10,795 | -$6,350 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$515 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.71/sh | +$171 cycle +$381 [+$32…+$941] · 75% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$10,772 NOT cap gain +$11,226 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$530 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.98/sh | +$98 cycle +$308 [-$171…+$929] · 72% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$9,450 NOT cap gain +$12,548 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$518 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.65/sh | +$65 cycle +$275 [-$114…+$816] · 71% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$10,608 NOT cap gain +$11,390 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $788/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $740/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,604 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 67.2% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 17.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,043 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $509.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $510-517.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $517.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $515.00 (2.1σ) | $210 | $-10,943 | +$11,055 | +$180 |
| +2.5% | $527.88 (2.3σ) | $-1,078 | $-11,072 | +$10,926 | -$1,108 |
| +5% | $540.75 (2.6σ) | $-2,365 | $-11,200 | +$10,798 | -$2,395 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-7,090 | $-11,673 | +$10,325 | -$6,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$510 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.88/sh | +$188 cycle +$438 [-$36…+$901] · 71% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$11,165 NOT cap gain +$10,833 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$513 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.82/sh | +$82 cycle +$332 [-$162…+$774] · 62% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$11,001 NOT cap gain +$10,997 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$526 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.16/sh | +$116 cycle +$366 [-$198…+$885] · 61% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$9,842 NOT cap gain +$12,156 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $938/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $890/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,064 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 70.8% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 18.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,048 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $504.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $505-513.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $513.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $510.00 (2.0σ) | $250 | $-11,353 | +$10,645 | +$220 |
| +2.5% | $522.75 (2.3σ) | $-1,025 | $-11,480 | +$10,518 | -$1,055 |
| +5% | $535.50 (2.5σ) | $-2,300 | $-11,608 | +$10,390 | -$2,330 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-7,550 | $-12,133 | +$9,865 | -$7,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$508 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$4.37/sh | +$437 cycle +$747 [+$11…+$1,128] · 75% credit | 71% surv 57% | -$11,036 NOT cap gain +$10,962 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$500 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.22/sh | +$222 cycle +$532 [-$143…+$840] · 67% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$11,971 NOT cap gain +$10,027 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$503 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.15/sh | +$115 cycle +$425 [-$275…+$711] · 57% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$11,808 NOT cap gain +$10,190 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$516 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.49/sh | +$149 cycle +$459 [-$357…+$799] · 57% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$10,649 NOT cap gain +$11,349 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,162/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,114/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,004 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 78.2% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 20.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,068 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $495.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $495-503.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $503.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $500.00 (1.9σ) | $310 | $-12,193 | +$9,805 | +$280 |
| +2.5% | $512.50 (2.1σ) | $-940 | $-12,318 | +$9,680 | -$970 |
| +5% | $525.00 (2.3σ) | $-2,190 | $-12,443 | +$9,555 | -$2,220 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-8,490 | $-13,073 | +$8,925 | -$8,220 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$495 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.38/sh | +$238 cycle +$383 [-$77…+$955] · 69% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$12,570 NOT cap gain +$9,428 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$510 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.65/sh | +$165 cycle +$310 [-$280…+$938] · 65% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$11,248 NOT cap gain +$10,750 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$498 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.31/sh | +$131 cycle +$276 [-$219…+$829] · 64% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$12,407 NOT cap gain +$9,591 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $544/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -83% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $496/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,669 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 83.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 22.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,220 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $490.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $490-498.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $498.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $495.00 (1.8σ) | $145 | $-12,808 | +$9,190 | +$115 |
| +2.5% | $507.37 (2.0σ) | $-1,092 | $-12,932 | +$9,066 | -$1,122 |
| +5% | $519.75 (2.2σ) | $-2,330 | $-13,056 | +$8,942 | -$2,360 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-9,155 | $-13,738 | +$8,260 | -$8,885 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$490 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.54/sh | +$254 cycle +$364 [-$113…+$825] · 67% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$13,039 NOT cap gain +$8,959 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$493 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.47/sh | +$147 cycle +$257 [-$232…+$691] · 63% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$12,876 NOT cap gain +$9,122 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$506 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.80/sh | +$180 cycle +$290 [-$287…+$808] · 63% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$11,718 NOT cap gain +$10,280 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $412/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $364/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,204 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 87.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 23.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,298 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $485.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $485-494.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $494.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $490.00 (1.7σ) | $110 | $-13,293 | +$8,705 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $502.25 (1.9σ) | $-1,115 | $-13,416 | +$8,582 | -$1,145 |
| +5% | $514.50 (2.1σ) | $-2,340 | $-13,538 | +$8,460 | -$2,370 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-9,690 | $-14,273 | +$7,725 | -$9,420 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$480 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.84/sh | +$284 cycle +$794 [-$76…+$806] · 71% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$13,509 NOT cap gain +$8,489 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$483 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.77/sh | +$177 cycle +$687 [-$196…+$694] · 63% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$13,346 NOT cap gain +$8,652 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$496 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.09/sh | +$209 cycle +$719 [-$240…+$798] · 62% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$12,189 NOT cap gain +$9,809 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$498 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$8 cycle +$518 [-$489…+$602] · 53% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$12,165 NOT cap gain +$9,833 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$510 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$4.93/sh | -$493 cycle +$17 [-$1,064…+$84] · 28% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$11,541 NOT cap gain +$10,457 |
| budget: banked $510 debit $493 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,919/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,912/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -41% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 29% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,864/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,804 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 92.2% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 24.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,058 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $475.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $475-485.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $485.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $480.00 (1.5σ) | $510 | $-13,793 | +$8,205 | +$480 |
| +2.5% | $492.00 (1.7σ) | $-690 | $-13,913 | +$8,085 | -$720 |
| +5% | $504.00 (1.9σ) | $-1,890 | $-14,033 | +$7,965 | -$1,920 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-10,290 | $-14,873 | +$7,125 | -$10,020 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$475 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.99/sh | +$299 cycle +$859 [-$113…+$734] · 70% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$13,894 NOT cap gain +$8,104 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$490 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.23/sh | +$223 cycle +$783 [-$301…+$704] · 60% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$12,575 NOT cap gain +$9,423 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$493 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$22 cycle +$582 [-$542…+$492] · 48% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$12,551 NOT cap gain +$9,447 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$480 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$4 cycle +$564 [-$462…+$407] · 48% credit | 70% surv 56% | -$13,694 NOT cap gain +$8,304 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$506 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$4.77/sh | -$477 cycle +$83 [-$1,161…-$40] · 24% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$11,925 NOT cap gain +$10,073 |
| budget: banked $560 debit $477 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,895/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -36% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,052/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,254 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 95.7% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 25.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,218 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $470.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $470-482.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $482.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $475.00 (1.4σ) | $560 | $-14,193 | +$7,805 | +$530 |
| +2.5% | $486.87 (1.6σ) | $-627 | $-14,312 | +$7,686 | -$657 |
| +5% | $498.75 (1.8σ) | $-1,815 | $-14,430 | +$7,568 | -$1,845 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-10,740 | $-15,323 | +$6,675 | -$10,470 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$470 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$3.13/sh | +$313 cycle +$813 [-$118…+$792] · 70% credit | 69% surv 53% | -$14,390 NOT cap gain +$7,608 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$486 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.36/sh | +$236 cycle +$736 [-$294…+$758] · 60% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$13,072 NOT cap gain +$8,926 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$488 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$36 cycle +$536 [-$535…+$543] · 46% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$13,047 NOT cap gain +$8,951 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$476 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$18 cycle +$518 [-$452…+$464] · 45% credit | 70% surv 56% | -$14,190 NOT cap gain +$7,808 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$500 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$4.62/sh | -$462 cycle +$38 [-$1,113…+$6] · 26% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$12,420 NOT cap gain +$9,578 |
| budget: banked $500 debit $462 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$38 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,871/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,260/mo) | -42% |
| vs normal income ($6,520/mo) | 29% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,827/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,814 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 100.1% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 26.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-22,258 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $465.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $465-477.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $477.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $470.00 (1.3σ) | $500 | $-14,703 | +$7,295 | +$470 |
| +2.5% | $481.75 (1.5σ) | $-675 | $-14,820 | +$7,178 | -$705 |
| +5% | $493.50 (1.7σ) | $-1,850 | $-14,938 | +$7,060 | -$1,880 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (3.4σ) | $-11,300 | $-15,883 | +$6,115 | -$11,030 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$419 cycle +$544 [+$155…+$997] · 83% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$121 NOT cap gain +$10,129 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$122 cycle +$247 [-$126…+$612] · 70% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$1,543 NOT cap gain +$8,707 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$92 cycle +$217 [-$171…+$589] · 67% credit | 65% surv 54% | -$1,866 NOT cap gain +$8,384 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.01/sh | -$37 cycle +$88 [-$353…+$478] · 55% credit | 72% surv 65% | +$548 SAFE cap gain +$10,798 |
| budget: banked $125 debit $37 (30% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,942/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $469/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,975/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($3,950/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $469/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,386 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 36.2% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 12.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-10,338 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (1.9σ) | $125 | $-1,958 | +$8,293 | +$30 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (2.1σ) | $-875 | $-2,058 | +$8,193 | -$970 |
| +5% | $16.80 (2.3σ) | $-1,875 | $-2,158 | +$8,093 | -$1,970 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.4σ) | $-11,725 | $-3,142 | +$7,108 | -$11,220 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$521 cycle +$882 [+$179…+$651] · 89% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$5,385 NOT cap gain +$4,865 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$190 cycle +$551 [-$190…+$302] · 52% credit | 70% surv 62% | -$4,591 NOT cap gain +$5,659 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$59 cycle +$420 [-$276…+$156] · 39% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$5,847 NOT cap gain +$4,403 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$57 cycle +$418 [-$294…+$158] · 38% credit | 65% surv 54% | -$6,142 NOT cap gain +$4,108 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.07/sh | -$130 cycle +$231 [-$567…-$37] · 22% credit | 73% surv 67% | -$3,786 NOT cap gain +$6,464 |
| budget: banked $361 debit $130 (36% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$231 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,267/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,354/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,975/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($3,950/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,399/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,107 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 65.3% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 22.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-7,895 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $361 | $-6,199 | +$4,051 | +$289 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (1.0σ) | $-304 | $-6,076 | +$4,174 | -$376 |
| +5% | $14.70 (1.2σ) | $-969 | $-5,954 | +$4,296 | -$1,041 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.4σ) | $-12,445 | $-3,984 | +$6,266 | -$12,061 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$489 cycle +$1,040 [+$90…+$470] · 83% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$6,352 NOT cap gain +$3,898 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$160 cycle +$711 [-$286…+$126] · 37% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$5,556 NOT cap gain +$4,694 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$54 cycle +$605 [-$352…+$23] · 27% credit | 65% surv 54% | -$7,080 NOT cap gain +$3,170 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$51 cycle +$602 [-$337…+$21] · 26% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$6,790 NOT cap gain +$3,460 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.24/sh | -$449 cycle +$102 [-$1,041…-$551] · 5% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$3,915 NOT cap gain +$6,335 |
| budget: banked $551 debit $449 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$102 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,602/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,066/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,975/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($3,950/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,112/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,867 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 73.4% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 25.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-7,885 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.84 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.84 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $551 | $-7,134 | +$3,116 | +$479 |
| +2.5% | $13.84 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-90 | $-7,016 | +$3,234 | -$162 |
| +5% | $14.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-732 | $-6,897 | +$3,353 | -$804 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.4σ) | $-13,205 | $-4,744 | +$5,506 | -$12,821 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$103 cycle +$1,186 [-$517…-$179] · 10% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$7,331 NOT cap gain +$2,919 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$48 cycle +$1,131 [-$511…-$205] · 8% credit | 65% surv 54% | -$8,803 NOT cap gain +$1,447 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$36 cycle +$1,119 [-$499…-$207] · 8% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$8,523 NOT cap gain +$1,727 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$987 cycle +$96 [-$2,010…-$1,387] | 92% surv 91% | -$547 NOT cap gain +$9,703 |
| budget: banked $1,083 debit $987 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $450/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,061/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,975/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($3,950/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,107/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,235 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 88.1% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 30.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-8,056 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-13.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,083 | $-8,852 | +$1,398 | +$1,011 |
| +2.5% | $12.81 (≤1σ, normal week) | $489 | $-8,742 | +$1,508 | +$417 |
| +5% | $13.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-105 | $-8,633 | +$1,617 | -$177 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.4σ) | $-14,573 | $-6,112 | +$4,138 | -$14,189 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$332 cycle +$582 [-$40…+$709] · 72% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$2,333 NOT cap gain +$7,917 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$99 cycle +$349 [-$235…+$421] · 54% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$3,691 NOT cap gain +$6,559 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$83 cycle +$333 [-$267…+$414] · 52% credit | 65% surv 54% | -$3,999 NOT cap gain +$6,251 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.04/sh | -$106 cycle +$144 [-$532…+$248] · 37% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$1,646 NOT cap gain +$8,604 |
| budget: banked $250 debit $106 (42% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$144 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,450/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $938/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,975/mo) | -53% |
| vs normal income ($3,950/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $938/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,761 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 61.6% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 21.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-10,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-15.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $15.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.00 (1.4σ) | $250 | $-4,082 | +$6,168 | +$155 |
| +2.5% | $15.37 (1.6σ) | $-687 | $-4,176 | +$6,074 | -$782 |
| +5% | $15.75 (1.8σ) | $-1,625 | $-4,270 | +$5,980 | -$1,720 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.4σ) | $-14,100 | $-5,517 | +$4,733 | -$13,595 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (13 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$13 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$313 cycle +$846 [-$1…+$217] · 75% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$7,648 NOT cap gain +$2,602 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$90 cycle +$623 [-$263…-$25] · 22% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$6,747 NOT cap gain +$3,503 |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$35 cycle +$568 [-$285…-$68] · 18% credit | 65% surv 54% | -$8,219 NOT cap gain +$2,031 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$30 cycle +$563 [-$276…-$70] · 17% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$7,932 NOT cap gain +$2,318 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.39/sh | -$510 cycle +$23 [-$1,019…-$684] | 83% surv 81% | -$2,846 NOT cap gain +$7,404 |
| budget: banked $533 debit $510 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $671/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,999/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,975/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($3,950/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,090/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,193 |
| … as % of IC ($9,350) | 55.5% |
| … as % of ML ($26,850) | 19.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (13 ct) | $-5,382 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $533 | $-8,254 | +$1,996 | +$484 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (≤1σ, normal week) | $111 | $-7,945 | +$2,305 | +$61 |
| +5% | $13.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-312 | $-7,636 | +$2,614 | -$361 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $20.74 (4.4σ) | $-9,529 | $-1,189 | +$9,061 | -$9,266 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.63/sh | +$1,260 cycle +$1,460 [+$1,069…+$2,029] · 100% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$17,204 NOT cap gain +$17,916 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.34/sh | +$672 cycle +$872 [+$402…+$1,371] · 92% credit | 64% surv 56% | -$16,296 NOT cap gain +$18,824 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$91 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$396 cycle +$596 [-$15…+$1,145] · 74% credit | 71% surv 66% | -$10,962 NOT cap gain +$24,158 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | -81% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,438 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 32.5% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 18.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-35,370 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $86.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $86-87.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $87.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $87.00 (1.5σ) | $200 | $-18,464 | +$16,656 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $89.17 (1.9σ) | $-4,150 | $-18,747 | +$16,373 | -$4,250 |
| +5% | $91.35 (2.3σ) | $-8,500 | $-19,029 | +$16,090 | -$8,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-12,600 | $-19,296 | +$15,824 | -$12,700 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.56/sh | +$840 cycle +$1,590 [+$501…+$950] · 99% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$26,399 NOT cap gain +$8,721 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.38/sh | +$566 cycle +$1,316 [+$104…+$647] · 83% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$20,502 NOT cap gain +$14,618 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$409 cycle +$1,159 [+$6…+$482] · 76% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$25,334 NOT cap gain +$9,786 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$119 cycle +$869 [-$458…+$145] · 34% credit | 72% surv 67% | -$20,014 NOT cap gain +$15,106 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$478 cycle +$272 [-$1,221…-$505] · 8% credit | 74% surv 71% | -$18,741 NOT cap gain +$16,379 |
| budget: banked $750 debit $478 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$272 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $2,839/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,812/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,862/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,729 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 36.5% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 20.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-26,715 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $81.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $81-82.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $82.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $750 | $-27,239 | +$7,881 | +$675 |
| +2.5% | $84.05 (1.0σ) | $-2,325 | $-26,480 | +$8,639 | -$2,400 |
| +5% | $86.10 (1.4σ) | $-5,400 | $-25,722 | +$9,398 | -$5,475 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-16,350 | $-23,021 | +$12,099 | -$16,425 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.55/sh | +$929 cycle +$2,034 [+$498…+$919] · 98% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$27,835 NOT cap gain +$7,285 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$591 cycle +$1,696 [-$4…+$523] · 75% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$22,002 NOT cap gain +$13,118 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$443 cycle +$1,548 [-$76…+$389] · 66% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$26,825 NOT cap gain +$8,295 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$97 cycle +$1,202 [-$646…-$20] · 24% credit | 73% surv 67% | -$21,561 NOT cap gain +$13,559 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$994 cycle +$111 [-$2,004…-$1,211] · 1% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$15,172 NOT cap gain +$19,948 |
| budget: banked $1,105 debit $994 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,365/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,144/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,174/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,937 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 43.9% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 24.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-30,192 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.19 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-81.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,105 | $-28,764 | +$6,356 | +$1,020 |
| +2.5% | $83.02 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,337 | $-28,420 | +$6,700 | -$2,422 |
| +5% | $85.05 (1.2σ) | $-5,780 | $-28,076 | +$7,044 | -$5,865 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-19,975 | $-26,656 | +$8,464 | -$20,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.51/sh | +$873 cycle +$3,083 [+$295…+$568] · 93% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$31,461 NOT cap gain +$3,659 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$985 cycle +$3,195 [+$240…+$588] · 89% credit | 68% surv 60% | -$27,983 NOT cap gain +$7,137 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$392 cycle +$2,602 [-$316…+$43] · 34% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$30,446 NOT cap gain +$4,674 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$5 cycle +$2,215 [-$1,019…-$463] · 7% credit | 73% surv 68% | -$25,223 NOT cap gain +$9,897 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.11/sh | -$1,894 cycle +$316 [-$3,833…-$2,647] | 90% surv 90% | -$12,162 NOT cap gain +$22,958 |
| budget: banked $2,210 debit $1,894 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$316 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $621/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,288/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | +107% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,318/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,082 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 49.4% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 27.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-30,404 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-80.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,210 | $-32,334 | +$2,786 | +$2,125 |
| +2.5% | $80.46 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,126 | $-32,000 | +$3,120 | -$1,211 |
| +5% | $82.42 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-4,462 | $-31,667 | +$3,453 | -$4,547 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-23,120 | $-29,801 | +$5,319 | -$23,205 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.64/sh | +$1,289 cycle +$1,389 [+$1,239…+$2,062] · 100% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$15,405 NOT cap gain +$19,715 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$89 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.35/sh | +$699 cycle +$799 [+$526…+$1,378] · 93% credit | 64% surv 56% | -$14,499 NOT cap gain +$20,621 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$92 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$446 cycle +$546 [+$150…+$1,174] · 79% credit | 71% surv 65% | -$9,142 NOT cap gain +$25,978 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $375/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,538 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 29.1% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 16.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-35,570 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $87.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $87-88.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $88.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $88.00 (1.7σ) | $100 | $-16,694 | +$18,426 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $90.20 (2.1σ) | $-4,300 | $-16,980 | +$18,140 | -$4,400 |
| +5% | $92.40 (2.4σ) | $-8,700 | $-17,266 | +$17,854 | -$8,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-10,700 | $-17,396 | +$17,724 | -$10,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.62/sh | +$1,232 cycle +$1,432 [+$985…+$1,745] · 99% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$19,102 NOT cap gain +$16,018 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.32/sh | +$646 cycle +$846 [+$293…+$1,124] · 90% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$18,192 NOT cap gain +$16,928 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$347 cycle +$547 [-$203…+$879] · 65% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$12,881 NOT cap gain +$22,239 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | -81% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,438 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 36.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 20.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-35,820 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $85.14 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $85-86.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $86.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $86.00 (1.3σ) | $200 | $-20,334 | +$14,786 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $88.15 (1.7σ) | $-4,100 | $-20,613 | +$14,506 | -$4,200 |
| +5% | $90.30 (2.1σ) | $-8,400 | $-20,893 | +$14,227 | -$8,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-14,600 | $-21,296 | +$13,824 | -$14,700 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.60/sh | +$1,203 cycle +$1,503 [+$904…+$1,658] · 99% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$20,901 NOT cap gain +$14,219 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.47/sh | +$941 cycle +$1,241 [+$504…+$1,420] · 93% credit | 71% surv 65% | -$14,992 NOT cap gain +$20,128 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.31/sh | +$621 cycle +$921 [+$224…+$1,036] · 88% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$19,987 NOT cap gain +$15,133 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$298 cycle +$598 [-$297…+$727] · 58% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$14,700 NOT cap gain +$20,420 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | -72% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,125/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,338 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 39.3% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 22.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-35,670 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $84.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-85.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $85.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $85.00 (1.2σ) | $300 | $-22,104 | +$13,016 | +$200 |
| +2.5% | $87.12 (1.5σ) | $-3,950 | $-22,380 | +$12,740 | -$4,050 |
| +5% | $89.25 (1.9σ) | $-8,200 | $-22,656 | +$12,463 | -$8,300 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-16,500 | $-23,196 | +$11,924 | -$16,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.59/sh | +$1,175 cycle +$1,875 [+$833…+$1,549] · 99% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$22,399 NOT cap gain +$12,721 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.44/sh | +$878 cycle +$1,578 [+$386…+$1,231] · 92% credit | 71% surv 65% | -$16,525 NOT cap gain +$18,595 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.30/sh | +$595 cycle +$1,295 [+$146…+$908] · 86% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$21,483 NOT cap gain +$13,637 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$251 cycle +$951 [-$394…+$557] · 50% credit | 72% surv 67% | -$16,217 NOT cap gain +$18,903 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.29/sh | -$586 cycle +$114 [-$1,427…-$317] · 15% credit | 74% surv 70% | -$15,184 NOT cap gain +$19,936 |
| budget: banked $700 debit $586 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$114 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,109/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,625/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,938 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 42.1% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 23.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-35,420 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $83.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $83-84.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $84.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $84.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $700 | $-23,574 | +$11,546 | +$600 |
| +2.5% | $86.10 (1.4σ) | $-3,500 | $-23,847 | +$11,273 | -$3,600 |
| +5% | $88.20 (1.7σ) | $-7,700 | $-24,120 | +$11,000 | -$7,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-18,100 | $-24,796 | +$10,324 | -$18,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.57/sh | +$1,148 cycle +$1,748 [+$746…+$1,338] · 99% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$24,396 NOT cap gain +$10,724 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.41/sh | +$816 cycle +$1,416 [+$237…+$954] · 88% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$18,557 NOT cap gain +$16,563 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.28/sh | +$570 cycle +$1,170 [+$59…+$696] · 80% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$23,478 NOT cap gain +$11,642 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$204 cycle +$804 [-$527…+$282] · 39% credit | 72% surv 67% | -$18,234 NOT cap gain +$16,886 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | -44% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 28% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,038 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 45.8% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 25.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-35,720 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $82.17 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $82-83.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $83.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $83.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $600 | $-25,544 | +$9,576 | +$500 |
| +2.5% | $85.07 (1.2σ) | $-3,550 | $-25,814 | +$9,306 | -$3,650 |
| +5% | $87.15 (1.5σ) | $-7,700 | $-26,083 | +$9,036 | -$7,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-20,200 | $-26,896 | +$8,224 | -$20,300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.55/sh | +$1,107 cycle +$1,907 [+$631…+$1,101] · 99% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$27,042 NOT cap gain +$8,078 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$725 cycle +$1,525 [+$65…+$657] · 79% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$21,253 NOT cap gain +$13,867 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$533 cycle +$1,333 [-$41…+$478] · 71% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$26,120 NOT cap gain +$9,000 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$136 cycle +$936 [-$691…+$18] · 26% credit | 73% surv 67% | -$20,907 NOT cap gain +$14,213 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$649 cycle +$151 [-$1,709…-$835] · 6% credit | 74% surv 71% | -$19,822 NOT cap gain +$15,298 |
| budget: banked $800 debit $649 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$151 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,707/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | -25% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,838 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 50.8% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 28.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-35,870 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $81-82.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $800 | $-28,149 | +$6,971 | +$700 |
| +2.5% | $83.54 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,275 | $-28,414 | +$6,706 | -$3,375 |
| +5% | $85.58 (1.3σ) | $-7,350 | $-28,679 | +$6,441 | -$7,450 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-23,000 | $-29,696 | +$5,424 | -$23,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.54/sh | +$810 cycle +$1,935 [+$407…+$736] · 97% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$28,859 NOT cap gain +$6,261 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$499 cycle +$1,624 [-$59…+$343] · 69% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$22,999 NOT cap gain +$12,121 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$381 cycle +$1,506 [-$102…+$249] · 60% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$27,792 NOT cap gain +$7,328 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$69 cycle +$1,194 [-$623…-$129] · 19% credit | 73% surv 68% | -$22,494 NOT cap gain +$12,626 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.59/sh | -$886 cycle +$239 [-$1,808…-$1,198] · 1% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$15,969 NOT cap gain +$19,151 |
| budget: banked $1,125 debit $886 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$239 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $2,028/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,219/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,269/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,604 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 39.8% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 22.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-26,752 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-81.53 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.53 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,125 | $-29,669 | +$5,451 | +$1,050 |
| +2.5% | $82.51 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,894 | $-28,924 | +$6,196 | -$1,969 |
| +5% | $84.53 (1.1σ) | $-4,913 | $-28,180 | +$6,940 | -$4,988 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-18,225 | $-24,896 | +$10,224 | -$18,300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (13 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.53/sh | +$693 cycle +$1,798 [+$326…+$583] · 97% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$29,921 NOT cap gain +$5,199 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.32/sh | +$413 cycle +$1,518 [-$93…+$239] · 61% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$24,030 NOT cap gain +$11,090 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$323 cycle +$1,428 [-$116…+$177] · 55% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$28,795 NOT cap gain +$6,325 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$45 cycle +$1,150 [-$583…-$184] · 15% credit | 73% surv 68% | -$23,463 NOT cap gain +$11,657 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.82/sh | -$1,070 cycle +$35 [-$2,051…-$1,418] | 84% surv 83% | -$15,228 NOT cap gain +$19,892 |
| budget: banked $1,105 debit $1,070 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$35 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $1,217/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,144/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,214/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,110 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 35.4% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 20.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (13 ct) | $-23,120 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-81.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,105 | $-30,614 | +$4,506 | +$1,040 |
| +2.5% | $82.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,495 | $-29,474 | +$5,646 | -$1,560 |
| +5% | $84.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-4,095 | $-28,334 | +$6,786 | -$4,160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-16,315 | $-22,976 | +$12,144 | -$16,380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.53/sh | +$579 cycle +$1,679 [+$255…+$444] · 96% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$30,965 NOT cap gain +$4,155 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.61/sh | +$668 cycle +$1,768 [+$254…+$488] · 94% credit | 68% surv 60% | -$27,510 NOT cap gain +$7,610 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$266 cycle +$1,366 [-$127…+$97] · 49% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$29,782 NOT cap gain +$5,338 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$27 cycle +$1,127 [-$539…-$209] · 12% credit | 73% surv 68% | -$24,411 NOT cap gain +$10,709 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.92/sh | -$1,014 cycle +$86 [-$1,913…-$1,372] | 89% surv 88% | -$12,362 NOT cap gain +$22,758 |
| budget: banked $1,100 debit $1,014 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $816/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,215/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,401 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 30.6% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 17.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-19,646 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-80.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,100 | $-31,544 | +$3,576 | +$1,045 |
| +2.5% | $81.49 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,086 | $-30,014 | +$5,106 | -$1,141 |
| +5% | $83.48 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,273 | $-28,483 | +$6,637 | -$3,328 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-14,190 | $-20,841 | +$14,279 | -$14,245 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.52/sh | +$572 cycle +$1,672 [+$222…+$406] · 95% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$31,907 NOT cap gain +$3,213 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.59/sh | +$653 cycle +$1,753 [+$205…+$440] · 92% credit | 68% surv 60% | -$28,460 NOT cap gain +$6,660 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$260 cycle +$1,360 [-$165…+$64] · 40% credit | 65% surv 56% | -$30,723 NOT cap gain +$4,397 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$15 cycle +$1,115 [-$603…-$268] · 9% credit | 73% surv 68% | -$25,358 NOT cap gain +$9,762 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.92/sh | -$1,014 cycle +$86 [-$2,009…-$1,409] | 89% surv 88% | -$13,297 NOT cap gain +$21,823 |
| budget: banked $1,100 debit $1,014 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $785/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,215/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,951 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 31.6% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 17.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-19,646 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-80.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,100 | $-32,479 | +$2,641 | +$1,045 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,072 | $-30,958 | +$4,162 | -$1,127 |
| +5% | $82.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,245 | $-29,437 | +$5,682 | -$3,300 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-14,740 | $-21,391 | +$13,729 | -$14,795 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.51/sh | +$406 cycle +$1,606 | 62% surv 52% | -$33,454 NOT cap gain +$1,666 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$134 cycle +$1,334 | 66% surv 58% | -$32,230 NOT cap gain +$2,890 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$170 cycle +$1,370 | 73% surv 67% | -$27,519 NOT cap gain +$7,601 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.11/sh | -$892 cycle +$308 | 91% surv 91% | -$12,686 NOT cap gain +$22,434 |
| budget: banked $1,200 debit $892 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$308 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $269/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,620/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,455 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 23.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 13.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-14,228 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-79.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,200 | $-33,860 | +$1,260 | +$1,160 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-360 | $-32,148 | +$2,972 | -$400 |
| +5% | $81.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,920 | $-30,061 | +$5,059 | -$1,960 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-11,120 | $-17,756 | +$17,364 | -$11,160 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.50/sh | +$350 cycle +$1,540 | 62% surv 52% | -$33,515 NOT cap gain +$1,605 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$20 cycle +$1,210 | 68% surv 60% | -$32,349 NOT cap gain +$2,771 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$57 cycle +$1,247 | 75% surv 69% | -$27,637 NOT cap gain +$7,483 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.97/sh | -$679 cycle +$511 | 91% surv 90% | -$14,348 NOT cap gain +$20,772 |
| budget: banked $1,190 debit $679 (57% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$511 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $385/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,462/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | +12% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,592/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,983 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 21.1% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 11.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-12,484 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-79.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,190 | $-33,865 | +$1,255 | +$1,155 |
| +2.5% | $79.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-166 | $-32,907 | +$2,213 | -$201 |
| +5% | $81.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,522 | $-30,640 | +$4,480 | -$1,558 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-9,940 | $-16,571 | +$18,549 | -$9,975 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.49/sh | +$297 cycle +$1,437 | 62% surv 52% | -$33,613 NOT cap gain +$1,507 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$34 cycle +$1,174 | 68% surv 61% | -$33,315 NOT cap gain +$1,805 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$137 cycle +$1,277 | 72% surv 66% | -$30,407 NOT cap gain +$4,713 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.00/sh | -$599 cycle +$541 | 92% surv 91% | -$14,313 NOT cap gain +$20,807 |
| budget: banked $1,140 debit $599 (53% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$541 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $285/mo while parked; 14 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,275/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,000/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($8,000/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,415/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,451 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 18.4% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 10.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-10,686 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-79.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,140 | $-33,910 | +$1,210 | +$1,110 |
| +2.5% | $78.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-15 | $-33,709 | +$1,411 | -$45 |
| +5% | $80.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,170 | $-31,264 | +$3,856 | -$1,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.6σ) | $-8,700 | $-15,326 | +$19,794 | -$8,730 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,024 cycle +$1,524 [+$925…+$1,184] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$29,394 NOT cap gain +$5,636 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.48/sh | +$240 cycle +$740 [-$92…+$295] · 62% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$26,066 NOT cap gain +$8,964 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$542 [-$342…+$79] · 33% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$25,530 NOT cap gain +$9,500 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$0 cycle +$500 [-$271…+$15] · 26% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$27,285 NOT cap gain +$7,745 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.91/sh | -$456 cycle +$44 [-$958…-$462] · 4% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$23,336 NOT cap gain +$11,694 |
| budget: banked $500 debit $456 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$44 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,541/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -26% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,287/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,561 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 289.1% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 58.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,055 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $71.28 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $71-73.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $73.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $72.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $500 | $-30,418 | +$4,612 | +$475 |
| +2.5% | $73.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-400 | $-30,437 | +$4,593 | -$425 |
| +5% | $75.60 (1.1σ) | $-1,300 | $-30,456 | +$4,574 | -$1,325 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-26,225 | $-30,979 | +$4,051 | -$26,025 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$69 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.04/sh | +$1,020 cycle +$1,775 [+$913…+$1,076] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$30,612 NOT cap gain +$4,418 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$76 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.67/sh | +$335 cycle +$1,090 [-$46…+$278] · 68% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$27,674 NOT cap gain +$7,356 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$41 cycle +$796 [-$415…-$47] · 20% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$26,745 NOT cap gain +$8,285 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$758 [-$309…-$62] · 17% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$28,496 NOT cap gain +$6,534 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.50/sh | -$752 cycle +$3 [-$1,437…-$892] | 89% surv 88% | -$21,908 NOT cap gain +$13,122 |
| budget: banked $755 debit $752 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $952/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,831/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | +12% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,243/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,806 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 301.3% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 61.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,087 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $68.31 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $68-70.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $70.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $69.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $755 | $-31,632 | +$3,398 | +$730 |
| +2.5% | $70.72 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-107 | $-31,650 | +$3,380 | -$132 |
| +5% | $72.45 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-970 | $-31,668 | +$3,362 | -$995 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-27,470 | $-32,224 | +$2,806 | -$27,270 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$64 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.01/sh | +$1,005 cycle +$2,495 [+$889…+$927] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$32,339 NOT cap gain +$2,691 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$69 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.17/sh | +$583 cycle +$2,073 [+$155…+$385] · 88% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$30,118 NOT cap gain +$4,912 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$74 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$31 cycle +$1,521 [-$560…-$208] · 7% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$28,467 NOT cap gain +$6,563 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$70 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$1 cycle +$1,491 [-$391…-$154] · 5% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$30,210 NOT cap gain +$4,820 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.44/sh | -$721 cycle +$769 [-$1,604…-$1,058] | 90% surv 89% | -$23,590 NOT cap gain +$11,440 |
| budget: banked $1,490 debit $721 (48% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$769 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $844/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,588/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | +121% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,571 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 318.5% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 64.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,110 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $63.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $63-67.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $67.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $64.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,490 | $-33,344 | +$1,686 | +$1,465 |
| +2.5% | $65.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $690 | $-33,361 | +$1,669 | +$665 |
| +5% | $67.20 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-110 | $-33,378 | +$1,652 | -$135 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-29,235 | $-33,989 | +$1,041 | -$29,035 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$95 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.89/sh | +$946 cycle +$971 | 66% surv 53% | -$18,689 NOT cap gain +$16,341 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$100 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$23 cycle +$48 | 73% surv 66% | -$16,968 NOT cap gain +$18,062 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$32 cycle +$57 | 76% surv 71% | -$15,001 NOT cap gain +$20,029 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $94/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-494/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,536 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 181.3% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 36.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,035 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $94.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $94-95.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $95.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $95.00 (2.8σ) | $25 | $-19,635 | +$15,395 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $97.37 (3.0σ) | $-1,162 | $-19,660 | +$15,370 | -$1,187 |
| +5% | $99.75 (3.2σ) | $-2,350 | $-19,685 | +$15,345 | -$2,375 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-15,200 | $-19,954 | +$15,076 | -$15,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$91 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.95/sh | +$974 cycle +$1,014 | 66% surv 53% | -$20,604 NOT cap gain +$14,426 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$96 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$55 cycle +$95 | 73% surv 66% | -$18,879 NOT cap gain +$16,151 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$61 cycle +$101 | 76% surv 71% | -$16,915 NOT cap gain +$18,115 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-438/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,521 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 200.7% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 40.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,032 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $90.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $90-91.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $91.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $91.00 (2.5σ) | $40 | $-21,578 | +$13,452 | +$15 |
| +2.5% | $93.27 (2.7σ) | $-1,097 | $-21,602 | +$13,428 | -$1,122 |
| +5% | $95.55 (2.9σ) | $-2,235 | $-21,625 | +$13,405 | -$2,260 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-17,185 | $-21,939 | +$13,091 | -$16,985 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.96/sh | +$980 cycle +$1,023 [+$1,134…+$1,433] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$21,085 NOT cap gain +$13,945 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$95 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.12/sh | +$62 cycle +$105 [-$42…+$408] · 71% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$19,359 NOT cap gain +$15,671 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$67 cycle +$110 [-$114…+$486] · 68% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$17,396 NOT cap gain +$17,634 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$12 cycle +$30 [-$213…+$401] · 63% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$17,231 NOT cap gain +$17,799 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $160/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-428/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,019 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 205.6% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 41.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,032 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-90.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (2.4σ) | $43 | $-22,064 | +$12,966 | +$18 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (2.6σ) | $-1,082 | $-22,088 | +$12,942 | -$1,107 |
| +5% | $94.50 (2.8σ) | $-2,207 | $-22,112 | +$12,918 | -$2,232 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-17,682 | $-22,437 | +$12,593 | -$17,482 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$89 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.97/sh | +$985 cycle +$1,028 [+$1,084…+$1,428] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$21,569 NOT cap gain +$13,461 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$94 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$69 cycle +$112 [+$5…+$411] · 75% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$19,842 NOT cap gain +$15,188 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$98 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$73 cycle +$116 [-$29…+$492] · 70% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$17,880 NOT cap gain +$17,150 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $160/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-428/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,519 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 210.5% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 42.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,032 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $88.11 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $88-89.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $89.00 (2.3σ) | $43 | $-22,554 | +$12,476 | +$18 |
| +2.5% | $91.22 (2.5σ) | $-1,070 | $-22,577 | +$12,453 | -$1,095 |
| +5% | $93.45 (2.7σ) | $-2,182 | $-22,601 | +$12,429 | -$2,207 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-18,182 | $-22,937 | +$12,093 | -$17,982 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.98/sh | +$991 cycle +$1,038 [+$1,079…+$1,427] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$22,048 NOT cap gain +$12,982 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$93 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$75 cycle +$123 [+$0…+$372] · 75% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$20,320 NOT cap gain +$14,710 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$79 cycle +$126 [-$41…+$465] · 66% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$18,359 NOT cap gain +$16,671 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $178/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-410/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,014 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 215.3% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 43.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,032 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $87.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $87-88.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $88.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $88.00 (2.2σ) | $48 | $-23,039 | +$11,991 | +$22 |
| +2.5% | $90.20 (2.4σ) | $-1,052 | $-23,062 | +$11,968 | -$1,077 |
| +5% | $92.40 (2.6σ) | $-2,153 | $-23,085 | +$11,945 | -$2,178 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-18,678 | $-23,432 | +$11,598 | -$18,478 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.99/sh | +$996 cycle +$1,026 [+$1,082…+$1,436] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$22,550 NOT cap gain +$12,480 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$82 cycle +$112 [-$74…+$409] · 66% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$20,821 NOT cap gain +$14,209 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$96 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$84 cycle +$114 [-$169…+$506] · 64% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$18,861 NOT cap gain +$16,169 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$5 cycle +$35 [-$271…+$421] · 58% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$18,695 NOT cap gain +$16,335 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-476/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,531 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 220.4% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 44.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,050 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $86.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $86-87.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $87.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $87.00 (2.1σ) | $30 | $-23,546 | +$11,484 | +$5 |
| +2.5% | $89.17 (2.3σ) | $-1,057 | $-23,569 | +$11,461 | -$1,082 |
| +5% | $91.35 (2.5σ) | $-2,145 | $-23,591 | +$11,439 | -$2,170 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-19,195 | $-23,949 | +$11,081 | -$18,995 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.01/sh | +$1,004 cycle +$1,029 [+$1,033…+$1,375] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$23,525 NOT cap gain +$11,505 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$90 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$93 cycle +$118 [-$129…+$293] · 63% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$21,794 NOT cap gain +$13,236 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$146 cycle +$171 [-$188…+$413] · 63% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$20,027 NOT cap gain +$15,003 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$14 cycle +$39 [-$366…+$278] · 51% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$19,669 NOT cap gain +$15,361 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $94/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-494/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,536 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 230.2% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 46.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,060 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $84.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-85.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $85.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $85.00 (1.9σ) | $25 | $-24,530 | +$10,500 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $87.12 (2.1σ) | $-1,037 | $-24,552 | +$10,478 | -$1,062 |
| +5% | $89.25 (2.3σ) | $-2,100 | $-24,574 | +$10,456 | -$2,125 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-20,200 | $-24,954 | +$10,076 | -$20,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.02/sh | +$1,008 cycle +$1,058 [+$1,063…+$1,425] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$23,986 NOT cap gain +$11,044 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$89 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$98 cycle +$148 [-$17…+$408] · 72% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$22,253 NOT cap gain +$12,777 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$97 cycle +$147 [-$89…+$483] · 68% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$20,296 NOT cap gain +$14,734 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$19 cycle +$69 [-$186…+$399] · 60% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$20,129 NOT cap gain +$14,901 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-400/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,011 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 234.8% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 47.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,055 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $83.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $83-84.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $84.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $84.00 (1.8σ) | $50 | $-24,994 | +$10,036 | +$25 |
| +2.5% | $86.10 (2.0σ) | $-1,000 | $-25,016 | +$10,014 | -$1,025 |
| +5% | $88.20 (2.2σ) | $-2,050 | $-25,038 | +$9,992 | -$2,075 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-20,675 | $-25,429 | +$9,601 | -$20,475 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.02/sh | +$1,011 cycle +$1,061 [+$1,037…+$1,385] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$24,472 NOT cap gain +$10,558 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$102 cycle +$152 [-$41…+$308] · 71% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$22,738 NOT cap gain +$12,292 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$92 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$100 cycle +$150 [-$104…+$381] · 68% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$20,782 NOT cap gain +$14,248 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$23 cycle +$73 [-$202…+$299] · 56% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$20,615 NOT cap gain +$14,415 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-400/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,511 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 239.7% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 48.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $82.17 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $82-83.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $83.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $83.00 (1.7σ) | $50 | $-25,484 | +$9,546 | +$25 |
| +2.5% | $85.07 (1.9σ) | $-987 | $-25,505 | +$9,525 | -$1,012 |
| +5% | $87.15 (2.1σ) | $-2,025 | $-25,527 | +$9,503 | -$2,050 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-21,175 | $-25,929 | +$9,101 | -$20,975 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.03/sh | +$1,014 cycle +$1,119 [+$1,015…+$1,351] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$24,904 NOT cap gain +$10,126 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$107 cycle +$211 [-$75…+$297] · 68% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$23,169 NOT cap gain +$11,861 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$91 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$156 cycle +$261 [-$102…+$405] · 67% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$21,406 NOT cap gain +$13,624 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$92 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$26 cycle +$131 [-$266…+$275] · 50% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$21,046 NOT cap gain +$13,984 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $392/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -84% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-196/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,957 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 244.1% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 49.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,035 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $81.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $81-82.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $82.00 (1.7σ) | $104 | $-25,919 | +$9,111 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $84.05 (1.8σ) | $-920 | $-25,940 | +$9,090 | -$946 |
| +5% | $86.10 (2.0σ) | $-1,946 | $-25,962 | +$9,068 | -$1,971 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-21,620 | $-26,375 | +$8,655 | -$21,420 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.03/sh | +$1,017 cycle +$1,132 [+$1,018…+$1,391] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$25,381 NOT cap gain +$9,649 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.22/sh | +$111 cycle +$226 [-$24…+$340] · 70% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$23,644 NOT cap gain +$11,386 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$106 cycle +$221 [-$107…+$397] · 62% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$21,690 NOT cap gain +$13,340 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$91 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$29 cycle +$144 [-$199…+$318] · 50% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$21,522 NOT cap gain +$13,508 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $431/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -83% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-157/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,446 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 248.9% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 50.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,045 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.19 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-81.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $81.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.00 (1.6σ) | $115 | $-26,398 | +$8,632 | +$90 |
| +2.5% | $83.02 (1.7σ) | $-897 | $-26,419 | +$8,611 | -$922 |
| +5% | $85.05 (1.9σ) | $-1,910 | $-26,440 | +$8,590 | -$1,935 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-22,110 | $-26,864 | +$8,166 | -$21,910 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.04/sh | +$1,019 cycle +$1,167 [+$1,016…+$1,268] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$25,836 NOT cap gain +$9,194 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.48/sh | +$239 cycle +$387 [-$53…+$459] · 69% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$22,504 NOT cap gain +$12,526 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$114 cycle +$262 [-$93…+$275] · 60% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$24,097 NOT cap gain +$10,933 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$32 cycle +$180 [-$311…+$236] · 47% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$21,977 NOT cap gain +$13,053 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$91 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.25/sh | -$127 cycle +$20 [-$506…+$59] · 30% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$21,402 NOT cap gain +$13,628 |
| budget: banked $147 debit $127 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,346/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $552/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-36/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,914 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 253.4% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 51.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,038 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-80.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.00 (1.5σ) | $147 | $-26,855 | +$8,175 | +$122 |
| +2.5% | $82.00 (1.7σ) | $-853 | $-26,876 | +$8,154 | -$878 |
| +5% | $84.00 (1.8σ) | $-1,853 | $-26,897 | +$8,133 | -$1,878 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-22,578 | $-27,332 | +$7,698 | -$22,378 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.04/sh | +$1,021 cycle +$1,192 [+$1,011…+$1,328] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$26,299 NOT cap gain +$8,731 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$118 cycle +$289 [-$61…+$297] · 65% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$24,560 NOT cap gain +$10,470 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$163 cycle +$334 [-$100…+$403] · 62% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$22,801 NOT cap gain +$12,229 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$35 cycle +$206 [-$253…+$261] · 45% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$22,440 NOT cap gain +$12,590 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$90 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.25/sh | -$124 cycle +$47 [-$442…+$100] · 31% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$21,864 NOT cap gain +$13,166 |
| budget: banked $171 debit $124 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$47 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,320/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $641/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -75% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $53/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,390 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 258.1% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 52.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,039 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-79.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (1.4σ) | $171 | $-27,321 | +$7,709 | +$146 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (1.6σ) | $-816 | $-27,341 | +$7,689 | -$841 |
| +5% | $82.95 (1.7σ) | $-1,804 | $-27,362 | +$7,668 | -$1,829 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-23,054 | $-27,808 | +$7,222 | -$22,854 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,023 cycle +$1,218 [+$1,004…+$1,298] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$26,763 NOT cap gain +$8,267 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$121 cycle +$316 [-$105…+$283] · 63% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$25,022 NOT cap gain +$10,008 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$164 cycle +$359 [-$168…+$382] · 61% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$23,265 NOT cap gain +$11,765 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$37 cycle +$232 [-$322…+$253] · 46% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$22,903 NOT cap gain +$12,127 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.24/sh | -$121 cycle +$74 [-$512…+$93] · 30% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$22,326 NOT cap gain +$12,704 |
| budget: banked $195 debit $121 (62% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,293/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $731/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $143/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,866 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 262.8% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 53.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,045 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.3σ) | $195 | $-27,786 | +$7,244 | +$170 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.5σ) | $-780 | $-27,807 | +$7,223 | -$805 |
| +5% | $81.90 (1.6σ) | $-1,755 | $-27,827 | +$7,203 | -$1,780 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-23,530 | $-28,284 | +$6,746 | -$23,330 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,024 cycle +$1,214 [+$962…+$1,220] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$27,257 NOT cap gain +$7,773 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.49/sh | +$243 cycle +$433 [-$74…+$371] · 68% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$23,926 NOT cap gain +$11,104 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$123 cycle +$313 [-$97…+$211] · 59% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$25,514 NOT cap gain +$9,516 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$39 cycle +$229 [-$319…+$156] · 42% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$23,396 NOT cap gain +$11,634 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.24/sh | -$118 cycle +$72 [-$498…-$5] · 25% credit | 79% surv 76% | -$22,818 NOT cap gain +$12,212 |
| budget: banked $190 debit $118 (62% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$72 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,265/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $712/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -72% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $124/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,371 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 267.7% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 54.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,065 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-77.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.00 (1.2σ) | $190 | $-28,281 | +$6,749 | +$165 |
| +2.5% | $78.92 (1.4σ) | $-772 | $-28,301 | +$6,729 | -$798 |
| +5% | $80.85 (1.5σ) | $-1,735 | $-28,321 | +$6,709 | -$1,760 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-24,035 | $-28,789 | +$6,241 | -$23,835 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,025 cycle +$1,290 [+$963…+$1,217] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$27,670 NOT cap gain +$7,360 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.49/sh | +$243 cycle +$508 [-$84…+$402] · 67% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$24,341 NOT cap gain +$10,689 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$126 cycle +$391 [-$110…+$239] · 58% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$25,926 NOT cap gain +$9,104 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$40 cycle +$305 [-$343…+$170] · 40% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$23,809 NOT cap gain +$11,221 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.42/sh | -$208 cycle +$57 [-$645…-$93] · 19% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$22,833 NOT cap gain +$12,197 |
| budget: banked $265 debit $208 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$57 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,083/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $994/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -61% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $406/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,796 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 271.8% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 55.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,050 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.24 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $75-76.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $76.00 (1.1σ) | $265 | $-28,695 | +$6,335 | +$240 |
| +2.5% | $77.90 (1.3σ) | $-685 | $-28,715 | +$6,315 | -$710 |
| +5% | $79.80 (1.5σ) | $-1,635 | $-28,735 | +$6,295 | -$1,660 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-24,460 | $-29,214 | +$5,816 | -$24,260 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,025 cycle +$1,325 [+$965…+$1,213] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$28,125 NOT cap gain +$6,905 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.49/sh | +$243 cycle +$543 [-$94…+$382] · 65% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$24,795 NOT cap gain +$10,235 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$128 cycle +$428 [-$113…+$226] · 57% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$26,379 NOT cap gain +$8,651 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$41 cycle +$341 [-$350…+$164] · 40% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$24,262 NOT cap gain +$10,768 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$292 cycle +$8 [-$764…-$187] · 12% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$22,882 NOT cap gain +$12,148 |
| budget: banked $300 debit $292 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,911/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -55% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $537/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,261 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 276.4% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 56.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,055 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $74.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $74-75.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $75.00 (1.0σ) | $300 | $-29,150 | +$5,880 | +$275 |
| +2.5% | $76.88 (1.2σ) | $-638 | $-29,169 | +$5,861 | -$662 |
| +5% | $78.75 (1.4σ) | $-1,575 | $-29,189 | +$5,841 | -$1,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-24,925 | $-29,679 | +$5,351 | -$24,725 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,025 cycle +$1,390 [+$960…+$1,205] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$28,549 NOT cap gain +$6,481 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.48/sh | +$242 cycle +$607 [-$90…+$322] · 64% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$25,220 NOT cap gain +$9,810 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$129 cycle +$494 [-$106…+$182] · 56% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$26,801 NOT cap gain +$8,229 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$407 [-$339…+$109] · 35% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$24,686 NOT cap gain +$10,344 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.73/sh | -$363 cycle +$2 [-$835…-$327] · 7% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$23,133 NOT cap gain +$11,897 |
| budget: banked $365 debit $363 (99% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,761/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,369/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -46% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $781/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,696 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 280.6% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 57.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,055 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $73.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-74.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $74.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $365 | $-29,574 | +$5,456 | +$340 |
| +2.5% | $75.85 (1.1σ) | $-560 | $-29,594 | +$5,436 | -$585 |
| +5% | $77.70 (1.3σ) | $-1,485 | $-29,613 | +$5,417 | -$1,510 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-25,360 | $-30,114 | +$4,916 | -$25,160 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,025 cycle +$1,430 [+$952…+$1,205] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$28,754 NOT cap gain +$6,276 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.48/sh | +$242 cycle +$647 [-$95…+$318] · 64% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$25,425 NOT cap gain +$9,605 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$130 cycle +$535 [-$107…+$180] · 54% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$27,006 NOT cap gain +$8,024 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$447 [-$345…+$102] · 34% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$24,891 NOT cap gain +$10,139 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.75/sh | -$373 cycle +$32 [-$852…-$350] · 11% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$23,103 NOT cap gain +$11,927 |
| budget: banked $405 debit $373 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,728/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,519/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -40% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 30% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $931/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,906 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 282.7% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 57.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,047 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-74.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $405 | $-29,779 | +$5,251 | +$380 |
| +2.5% | $75.34 (1.1σ) | $-514 | $-29,798 | +$5,232 | -$539 |
| +5% | $77.17 (1.2σ) | $-1,432 | $-29,818 | +$5,212 | -$1,458 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-25,570 | $-30,324 | +$4,706 | -$25,370 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$73 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,025 cycle +$1,450 [+$945…+$1,192] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$28,979 NOT cap gain +$6,051 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.48/sh | +$241 cycle +$666 [-$117…+$309] · 62% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$25,650 NOT cap gain +$9,380 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$131 cycle +$556 [-$122…+$176] · 55% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$27,230 NOT cap gain +$7,800 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$467 [-$367…+$96] · 34% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$25,115 NOT cap gain +$9,915 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.74/sh | -$371 cycle +$54 [-$882…-$351] · 8% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$23,326 NOT cap gain +$11,704 |
| budget: banked $425 debit $371 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,715/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,594/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -37% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,006/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,136 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 285.0% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 58.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,057 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-73.91 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $73.91 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $425 | $-30,004 | +$5,026 | +$400 |
| +2.5% | $74.82 (1.0σ) | $-487 | $-30,023 | +$5,007 | -$512 |
| +5% | $76.65 (1.2σ) | $-1,400 | $-30,042 | +$4,988 | -$1,425 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-25,800 | $-30,554 | +$4,476 | -$25,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,025 cycle +$1,415 [+$923…+$1,149] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$29,259 NOT cap gain +$5,771 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$292 cycle +$682 [-$65…+$291] · 69% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$26,125 NOT cap gain +$8,905 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$131 cycle +$521 [-$128…+$126] · 50% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$27,509 NOT cap gain +$7,521 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$432 [-$372…+$31] · 28% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$25,395 NOT cap gain +$9,635 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.74/sh | -$370 cycle +$20 [-$883…-$414] · 7% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$23,604 NOT cap gain +$11,426 |
| budget: banked $390 debit $370 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,702/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,462/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -42% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 29% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $874/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,421 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 287.7% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 58.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,090 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $71.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-73.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $73.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $72.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $390 | $-30,283 | +$4,747 | +$365 |
| +2.5% | $74.31 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-516 | $-30,302 | +$4,728 | -$541 |
| +5% | $76.12 (1.1σ) | $-1,422 | $-30,322 | +$4,708 | -$1,448 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-26,085 | $-30,839 | +$4,191 | -$25,885 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,024 cycle +$1,559 [+$925…+$1,134] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$29,604 NOT cap gain +$5,426 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$290 cycle +$825 [-$56…+$285] · 68% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$26,471 NOT cap gain +$8,559 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$577 [-$370…+$23] · 27% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$25,740 NOT cap gain +$9,290 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$1 cycle +$536 [-$291…-$21] · 23% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$27,494 NOT cap gain +$7,536 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.02/sh | -$509 cycle +$26 [-$1,066…-$571] · 2% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$23,110 NOT cap gain +$11,920 |
| budget: banked $535 debit $509 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,437/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,006/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -21% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 40% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,418/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,776 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 291.2% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 59.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,060 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $70.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $71-72.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $72.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $71.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $535 | $-30,628 | +$4,402 | +$510 |
| +2.5% | $73.29 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-359 | $-30,647 | +$4,383 | -$384 |
| +5% | $75.08 (1.0σ) | $-1,253 | $-30,665 | +$4,365 | -$1,278 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-26,440 | $-31,194 | +$3,836 | -$26,240 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$71 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,023 cycle +$1,598 [+$925…+$1,097] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$29,810 NOT cap gain +$5,220 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$289 cycle +$864 [-$97…+$262] · 64% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$26,676 NOT cap gain +$8,354 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$617 [-$413…-$9] · 24% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$25,945 NOT cap gain +$9,085 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$1 cycle +$576 [-$312…-$41] · 20% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$27,699 NOT cap gain +$7,331 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.01/sh | -$507 cycle +$68 [-$1,108…-$607] · 2% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$23,312 NOT cap gain +$11,718 |
| budget: banked $575 debit $507 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$68 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,424/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,156/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -15% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 43% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,568/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,986 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 293.3% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 59.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $70.29 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $70-72.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $72.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $71.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $575 | $-30,833 | +$4,197 | +$550 |
| +2.5% | $72.77 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-312 | $-30,851 | +$4,179 | -$337 |
| +5% | $74.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,200 | $-30,870 | +$4,160 | -$1,225 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-26,650 | $-31,404 | +$3,626 | -$26,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$70 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.04/sh | +$1,022 cycle +$1,692 [+$921…+$1,092] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$30,206 NOT cap gain +$4,824 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$78 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.57/sh | +$287 cycle +$957 [-$96…+$240] · 61% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$27,073 NOT cap gain +$7,957 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$712 [-$407…-$31] · 23% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$26,340 NOT cap gain +$8,690 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$2 cycle +$672 [-$308…-$56] · 18% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$28,092 NOT cap gain +$6,938 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.14/sh | -$571 cycle +$99 [-$1,185…-$691] · 1% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$23,281 NOT cap gain +$11,749 |
| budget: banked $670 debit $571 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,287/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,513/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -0% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,925/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,391 |
| … as % of IC ($10,225) | 297.2% |
| … as % of ML ($50,225) | 60.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-35,072 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $69.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $69-71.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $71.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $70.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $670 | $-31,227 | +$3,803 | +$645 |
| +2.5% | $71.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-205 | $-31,246 | +$3,784 | -$230 |
| +5% | $73.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,080 | $-31,264 | +$3,766 | -$1,105 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $125.45 (5.6σ) | $-27,055 | $-31,809 | +$3,221 | -$26,855 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.32/sh | +$318 cycle +$468 [+$120…+$621] · 88% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$19,082 NOT cap gain +$6,678 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$204 cycle +$354 [-$161…+$544] · 63% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$18,386 NOT cap gain +$7,374 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$32 cycle +$182 [-$367…+$353] · 49% credit | 69% surv 61% | -$18,108 NOT cap gain +$7,652 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$105 cycle +$45 [-$521…+$197] · 38% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$17,345 NOT cap gain +$8,415 |
| budget: banked $150 debit $105 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$45 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,694/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -74% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $436/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,796 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 230.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 35.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,925 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.50 (1.5σ) | $150 | $-19,400 | +$6,360 | +$140 |
| +2.5% | $43.56 (1.7σ) | $-912 | $-19,506 | +$6,254 | -$922 |
| +5% | $44.62 (1.9σ) | $-1,975 | $-19,612 | +$6,148 | -$1,985 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-13,500 | $-20,765 | +$4,995 | -$6,360 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$526 cycle +$940 [+$150…+$588] · 88% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$21,399 NOT cap gain +$4,361 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.38/sh | +$345 cycle +$759 [+$69…+$410] · 84% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$21,940 NOT cap gain +$3,820 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$0 cycle +$414 [-$462…+$7] · 26% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$20,575 NOT cap gain +$5,185 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.45/sh | -$403 cycle +$11 [-$937…-$428] · 7% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$18,728 NOT cap gain +$7,032 |
| budget: banked $414 debit $403 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $1,698/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,552/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -29% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,428/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,988 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 246.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 38.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-23,342 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $414 | $-22,285 | +$3,475 | +$405 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-463 | $-22,285 | +$3,475 | -$472 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.1σ) | $-1,341 | $-22,285 | +$3,475 | -$1,350 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-15,021 | $-23,000 | +$2,760 | -$8,595 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.60/sh | +$536 cycle +$1,139 [+$97…+$434] · 84% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$22,100 NOT cap gain +$3,660 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.40/sh | +$360 cycle +$963 [+$35…+$295] · 80% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$22,636 NOT cap gain +$3,124 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$13 cycle +$616 [-$532…-$126] · 16% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$21,273 NOT cap gain +$4,487 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.43/sh | -$389 cycle +$214 [-$1,002…-$559] · 4% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$19,425 NOT cap gain +$6,335 |
| budget: banked $603 debit $389 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$214 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $1,660/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,261/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,137/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,699 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 256.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 39.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-23,346 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-38.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $603 | $-22,996 | +$2,764 | +$594 |
| +2.5% | $38.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-252 | $-22,996 | +$2,764 | -$261 |
| +5% | $39.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,107 | $-22,996 | +$2,764 | -$1,116 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-15,732 | $-23,711 | +$2,049 | -$9,306 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.61/sh | +$552 cycle +$1,857 [-$13…+$286] · 74% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$23,182 NOT cap gain +$2,578 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.43/sh | +$384 cycle +$1,689 [-$29…+$184] · 71% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$23,710 NOT cap gain +$2,050 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$20 cycle +$1,325 [-$549…-$231] · 8% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$23,714 NOT cap gain +$2,046 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$35 cycle +$1,340 [-$660…-$263] · 8% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$22,349 NOT cap gain +$3,411 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.09/sh | -$984 cycle +$321 [-$2,016…-$1,374] | 91% surv 91% | -$16,168 NOT cap gain +$9,592 |
| budget: banked $1,305 debit $984 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$321 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $547/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,894/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | +123% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,770/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,797 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 271.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 41.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $-23,292 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-37.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,305 | $-24,094 | +$1,666 | +$1,296 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $495 | $-24,094 | +$1,666 | +$486 |
| +5% | $37.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-315 | $-24,094 | +$1,666 | -$324 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-16,830 | $-24,809 | +$951 | -$10,404 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$209 cycle +$259 [+$191…+$795] · 85% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$15,241 NOT cap gain +$10,519 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$103 cycle +$153 [+$12…+$757] · 75% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$14,537 NOT cap gain +$11,223 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $62/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,396 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 169.8% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 26.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,890 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.4σ) | $50 | $-15,450 | +$10,310 | +$40 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (2.7σ) | $-1,125 | $-15,568 | +$10,192 | -$1,135 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.9σ) | $-2,300 | $-15,685 | +$10,075 | -$1,960 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-9,100 | $-16,365 | +$9,395 | -$1,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.31/sh | +$307 cycle +$357 [+$143…+$621] · 84% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$18,743 NOT cap gain +$7,017 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$194 cycle +$244 [-$116…+$539] · 67% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$18,046 NOT cap gain +$7,714 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$22 cycle +$72 [-$313…+$357] · 49% credit | 69% surv 61% | -$17,768 NOT cap gain +$7,992 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $62/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,396 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 224.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 34.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,940 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.00 (1.6σ) | $50 | $-19,050 | +$6,710 | +$40 |
| +2.5% | $44.07 (1.8σ) | $-1,025 | $-19,158 | +$6,602 | -$1,035 |
| +5% | $45.15 (2.0σ) | $-2,100 | $-19,265 | +$6,495 | -$2,110 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-13,100 | $-20,365 | +$5,395 | -$5,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.33/sh | +$328 cycle +$508 [+$115…+$588] · 87% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$19,492 NOT cap gain +$6,268 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$214 cycle +$394 [-$157…+$462] · 63% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$18,796 NOT cap gain +$6,964 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$42 cycle +$222 [-$359…+$273] · 45% credit | 69% surv 61% | -$18,518 NOT cap gain +$7,242 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$95 cycle +$85 [-$511…+$121] · 33% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$17,755 NOT cap gain +$8,005 |
| budget: banked $180 debit $95 (53% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,676/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $675/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -69% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $549/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,266 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 236.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 36.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,935 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.00 (1.4σ) | $180 | $-19,820 | +$5,940 | +$170 |
| +2.5% | $43.05 (1.6σ) | $-870 | $-19,925 | +$5,835 | -$880 |
| +5% | $44.10 (1.8σ) | $-1,920 | $-20,030 | +$5,730 | -$1,930 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-13,970 | $-21,235 | +$4,525 | -$6,830 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$551 cycle +$671 [+$203…+$740] · 87% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$19,419 NOT cap gain +$6,341 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.34/sh | +$338 cycle +$458 [+$97…+$533] · 85% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$19,992 NOT cap gain +$5,768 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$52 cycle +$172 [-$400…+$194] · 41% credit | 69% surv 61% | -$19,018 NOT cap gain +$6,742 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.09/sh | -$86 cycle +$34 [-$558…+$31] · 29% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$18,256 NOT cap gain +$7,504 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $86 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,657/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -80% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $324/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,826 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 244.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 37.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,990 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.50 (1.3σ) | $120 | $-20,330 | +$5,430 | +$110 |
| +2.5% | $42.54 (1.5σ) | $-917 | $-20,434 | +$5,326 | -$927 |
| +5% | $43.58 (1.7σ) | $-1,955 | $-20,538 | +$5,222 | -$1,965 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-14,530 | $-21,795 | +$3,965 | -$7,390 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.35/sh | +$348 cycle +$518 [+$118…+$589] · 86% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$20,382 NOT cap gain +$5,378 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$232 cycle +$402 [-$158…+$453] · 62% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$19,688 NOT cap gain +$6,072 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$61 cycle +$231 [-$352…+$259] · 46% credit | 69% surv 61% | -$19,409 NOT cap gain +$6,351 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.08/sh | -$78 cycle +$92 [-$503…+$101] · 34% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$18,648 NOT cap gain +$7,112 |
| budget: banked $170 debit $78 (46% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,638/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $638/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $512/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,276 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 250.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 38.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.2 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,995 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $170 | $-20,730 | +$5,030 | +$160 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.4σ) | $-855 | $-20,832 | +$4,928 | -$865 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.6σ) | $-1,880 | $-20,935 | +$4,825 | -$1,890 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-14,980 | $-22,245 | +$3,515 | -$7,840 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.57/sh | +$565 cycle +$805 [+$235…+$746] · 91% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$20,185 NOT cap gain +$5,575 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.36/sh | +$358 cycle +$598 [+$116…+$542] · 87% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$20,752 NOT cap gain +$5,008 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$70 cycle +$310 [-$347…+$209] · 43% credit | 69% surv 61% | -$19,780 NOT cap gain +$5,980 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.07/sh | -$69 cycle +$171 [-$505…+$62] · 30% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$19,019 NOT cap gain +$6,741 |
| budget: banked $240 debit $69 (29% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$171 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,618/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $774/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,706 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 256.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 39.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,920 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.50 (1.0σ) | $240 | $-21,110 | +$4,650 | +$230 |
| +2.5% | $41.51 (1.3σ) | $-772 | $-21,211 | +$4,549 | -$782 |
| +5% | $42.52 (1.5σ) | $-1,785 | $-21,313 | +$4,447 | -$1,795 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-15,410 | $-22,675 | +$3,085 | -$8,270 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.57/sh | +$572 cycle +$872 [+$144…+$677] · 85% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$20,568 NOT cap gain +$5,192 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.37/sh | +$367 cycle +$667 [+$57…+$472] · 81% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$21,133 NOT cap gain +$4,627 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$78 cycle +$378 [-$466…+$143] · 36% credit | 69% surv 61% | -$20,162 NOT cap gain +$5,598 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.06/sh | -$61 cycle +$239 [-$614…-$22] · 24% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$19,401 NOT cap gain +$6,359 |
| budget: banked $300 debit $61 (20% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$239 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,598/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -49% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $999/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,146 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 262.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 40.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.4 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,925 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $300 | $-21,500 | +$4,260 | +$290 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $-700 | $-21,600 | +$4,160 | -$710 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.4σ) | $-1,700 | $-21,700 | +$4,060 | -$1,710 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-15,850 | $-23,115 | +$2,645 | -$8,710 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$579 cycle +$949 [+$170…+$681] · 87% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$20,941 NOT cap gain +$4,819 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.38/sh | +$375 cycle +$745 [+$73…+$481] · 84% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$21,505 NOT cap gain +$4,255 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$86 cycle +$456 [-$419…+$154] · 35% credit | 69% surv 61% | -$20,534 NOT cap gain +$5,226 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$322 cycle +$48 [-$906…-$303] · 11% credit | 73% surv 68% | -$19,592 NOT cap gain +$6,168 |
| budget: banked $370 debit $322 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,129/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,388/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -37% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,262/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,576 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 268.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 41.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,965 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-40.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $370 | $-21,880 | +$3,880 | +$360 |
| +2.5% | $40.49 (1.0σ) | $-617 | $-21,979 | +$3,781 | -$627 |
| +5% | $41.48 (1.2σ) | $-1,605 | $-22,078 | +$3,682 | -$1,615 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-16,280 | $-23,545 | +$2,215 | -$9,140 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.59/sh | +$591 cycle +$1,151 [+$138…+$578] · 86% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$21,639 NOT cap gain +$4,121 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.39/sh | +$392 cycle +$952 [+$59…+$400] · 82% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$22,198 NOT cap gain +$3,562 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$8 cycle +$568 [-$552…-$49] · 22% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$20,872 NOT cap gain +$4,888 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.44/sh | -$440 cycle +$120 [-$1,081…-$543] · 5% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$19,070 NOT cap gain +$6,690 |
| budget: banked $560 debit $440 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$120 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,866/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | -5% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 48% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,974/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,386 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 279.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 43.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.6 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-25,960 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $560 | $-22,590 | +$3,170 | +$550 |
| +2.5% | $39.46 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-402 | $-22,686 | +$3,074 | -$412 |
| +5% | $40.43 (1.0σ) | $-1,365 | $-22,782 | +$2,978 | -$1,375 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-17,090 | $-24,355 | +$1,405 | -$9,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.60/sh | +$481 cycle +$1,121 [+$90…+$386] · 84% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$22,567 NOT cap gain +$3,193 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.41/sh | +$326 cycle +$966 [+$37…+$267] · 81% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$23,082 NOT cap gain +$2,678 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$17 cycle +$657 [-$462…-$110] · 16% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$21,681 NOT cap gain +$4,079 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.75/sh | -$603 cycle +$37 [-$1,242…-$788] · 0% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$19,601 NOT cap gain +$6,159 |
| budget: banked $640 debit $603 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$37 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,021/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,278/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,917 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 231.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 35.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-20,764 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $640 | $-23,408 | +$2,352 | +$632 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-110 | $-23,314 | +$2,446 | -$118 |
| +5% | $39.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-860 | $-23,220 | +$2,540 | -$868 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-14,280 | $-22,973 | +$2,787 | -$8,568 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.61/sh | +$363 cycle +$1,065 [+$38…+$239] · 81% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$23,071 NOT cap gain +$2,689 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.41/sh | +$248 cycle +$950 [+$8…+$160] · 77% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$23,546 NOT cap gain +$2,214 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$17 cycle +$719 [-$384…-$134] · 12% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$22,067 NOT cap gain +$3,693 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$705 [-$325…-$121] · 12% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$23,431 NOT cap gain +$2,329 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.12/sh | -$671 cycle +$31 [-$1,268…-$883] | 91% surv 91% | -$15,555 NOT cap gain +$10,205 |
| budget: banked $702 debit $671 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $380/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,632/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | +20% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 60% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,514/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,766 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 174.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 27.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-15,504 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $702 | $-23,794 | +$1,966 | +$696 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $147 | $-23,517 | +$2,243 | +$141 |
| +5% | $38.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-408 | $-23,239 | +$2,521 | -$414 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-10,788 | $-20,909 | +$4,851 | -$6,504 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.61/sh | +$366 cycle +$1,032 [+$21…+$227] · 78% credit | 67% surv 56% | -$23,554 NOT cap gain +$2,206 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.42/sh | +$252 cycle +$918 [-$3…+$148] · 74% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$24,028 NOT cap gain +$1,732 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$20 cycle +$686 [-$403…-$142] · 11% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$22,550 NOT cap gain +$3,210 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$8 cycle +$674 [-$337…-$126] · 11% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$23,912 NOT cap gain +$1,848 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.11/sh | -$664 cycle +$2 [-$1,292…-$890] | 91% surv 91% | -$16,034 NOT cap gain +$9,726 |
| budget: banked $666 debit $664 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $372/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,498/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,380/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,102 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 179.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 27.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-15,567 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-37.80 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.80 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $666 | $-24,280 | +$1,480 | +$660 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $119 | $-24,006 | +$1,754 | +$113 |
| +5% | $38.33 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-429 | $-23,732 | +$2,028 | -$435 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-11,124 | $-21,245 | +$4,515 | -$6,840 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.43/sh | +$173 cycle +$773 | 66% surv 53% | -$24,981 NOT cap gain +$779 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$7 cycle +$607 | 71% surv 65% | -$23,437 NOT cap gain +$2,323 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.09/sh | -$436 cycle +$164 | 92% surv 91% | -$16,680 NOT cap gain +$9,080 |
| budget: banked $600 debit $436 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$164 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $233/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,136/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,979 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 123.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 19.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-10,422 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $600 | $-25,154 | +$606 | +$596 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $245 | $-24,800 | +$960 | +$241 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-110 | $-24,357 | +$1,403 | -$114 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-7,660 | $-19,209 | +$6,551 | -$4,804 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.44/sh | +$176 cycle +$864 | 66% surv 53% | -$24,890 NOT cap gain +$870 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.30/sh | +$118 cycle +$806 | 68% surv 57% | -$24,948 NOT cap gain +$812 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$55 cycle +$743 | 70% surv 62% | -$24,201 NOT cap gain +$1,559 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.11/sh | -$445 cycle +$243 | 93% surv 92% | -$16,601 NOT cap gain +$9,159 |
| budget: banked $688 debit $445 (65% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$243 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $203/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,580/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,199/mo) | +17% |
| vs normal income ($4,398/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,466/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,091 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 124.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 19.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-10,430 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-37.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $688 | $-25,066 | +$694 | +$684 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $338 | $-25,168 | +$592 | +$334 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-12 | $-24,731 | +$1,029 | -$16 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (4.4σ) | $-7,772 | $-19,321 | +$6,439 | -$4,916 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,344/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -62% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,344/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,130 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 174.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 17.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-162,075 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,281/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,421/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$68,829 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 249.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 24.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (55 ct) | $-71,748 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,006/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,090/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$103,870 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 376.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 37.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (83 ct) | $-108,274 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $28,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $28,125/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$167,055 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 604.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 60.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.0 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-163,625 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,672/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -81% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,672/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,093 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 18.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 1.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-162,038 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,672/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -81% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,672/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,343 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 41.1% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 4.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-162,038 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,117/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,117/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,474 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 63.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 6.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-162,044 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -75% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,562/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,605 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 85.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 8.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-162,050 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,008/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,008/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,737 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 107.6% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 10.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-162,056 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,453/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -68% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,453/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,868 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 129.8% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 12.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-162,062 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,898/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,898/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,999 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 152.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 15.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-162,069 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,344/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -83% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,344/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$117,680 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 426.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 42.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.2 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-164,188 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,688/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -67% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,688/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$123,305 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 446.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 44.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.4 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-164,125 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -53% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 23% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,562/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$154,055 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 557.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 55.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.5 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-167,188 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,062/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,162/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$97,233 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 352.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 35.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (75 ct) | $-98,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.37/sh | +$184 cycle +$549 [-$154…+$462] · 64% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$8,032 NOT cap gain +$9,738 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$57 cycle +$422 [-$301…+$319] · 50% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$7,709 NOT cap gain +$10,061 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.50/sh | -$250 cycle +$115 [-$591…+$20] · 26% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$11,260 NOT cap gain +$6,510 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$108 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.63/sh | -$317 cycle +$48 [-$755…-$78] · 22% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$6,733 NOT cap gain +$11,037 |
| budget: banked $365 debit $317 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,352/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,369/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -46% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,315/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,536 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 65.8% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 20.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,795 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $97-98.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $98.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (1.3σ) | $365 | $-11,011 | +$6,759 | +$175 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (1.6σ) | $-860 | $-11,133 | +$6,637 | -$1,050 |
| +5% | $102.90 (1.8σ) | $-2,085 | $-11,256 | +$6,514 | -$2,275 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-7,635 | $-11,811 | +$5,959 | -$7,825 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$101 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.69/sh | +$346 cycle +$811 [-$2…+$465] · 75% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$9,120 NOT cap gain +$8,650 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$70 cycle +$535 [-$327…+$164] · 42% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$8,496 NOT cap gain +$9,274 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$96 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.45/sh | -$227 cycle +$238 [-$606…-$122] · 17% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$12,038 NOT cap gain +$5,732 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.80/sh | -$402 cycle +$63 [-$905…-$350] · 9% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$7,168 NOT cap gain +$10,602 |
| budget: banked $465 debit $402 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$63 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,152/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,744/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,690/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,436 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 72.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 22.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,805 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $95.04 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $95-97.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $97.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $96.00 (1.1σ) | $465 | $-11,811 | +$5,959 | +$275 |
| +2.5% | $98.40 (1.4σ) | $-735 | $-11,931 | +$5,839 | -$925 |
| +5% | $100.80 (1.6σ) | $-1,935 | $-12,051 | +$5,719 | -$2,125 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-8,535 | $-12,711 | +$5,059 | -$8,725 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$98 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.73/sh | +$363 cycle +$1,073 [-$3…+$446] · 75% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$10,433 NOT cap gain +$7,337 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$15 cycle +$725 [-$407…+$75] · 31% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$9,656 NOT cap gain +$8,114 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$92 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.38/sh | -$189 cycle +$521 [-$577…-$115] · 17% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$13,330 NOT cap gain +$4,440 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.33/sh | -$664 cycle +$46 [-$1,222…-$668] · 3% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$7,410 NOT cap gain +$10,360 |
| budget: banked $710 debit $664 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,611/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,662/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,609/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,941 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 82.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 25.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,812 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $91.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $92-94.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $92.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $710 | $-13,141 | +$4,629 | +$520 |
| +2.5% | $94.81 (1.0σ) | $-446 | $-13,256 | +$4,514 | -$636 |
| +5% | $97.12 (1.2σ) | $-1,602 | $-13,372 | +$4,398 | -$1,792 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-10,040 | $-14,216 | +$3,554 | -$10,230 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$91 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.10/sh | +$551 cycle +$1,901 [+$77…+$385] · 81% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$12,530 NOT cap gain +$5,240 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$38 cycle +$1,388 [-$545…-$178] · 13% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$11,468 NOT cap gain +$6,302 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$87 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.27/sh | -$134 cycle +$1,216 [-$684…-$333] · 8% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$15,109 NOT cap gain +$2,661 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$108 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.04/sh | -$1,019 cycle +$331 [-$1,907…-$1,345] | 90% surv 90% | -$6,450 NOT cap gain +$11,320 |
| budget: banked $1,350 debit $1,019 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$331 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $858/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,062/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,009/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,051 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 96.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 29.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,830 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $86.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $86-89.82 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.82 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $87.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,350 | $-14,976 | +$2,794 | +$1,160 |
| +2.5% | $89.17 (≤1σ, normal week) | $263 | $-15,084 | +$2,686 | +$73 |
| +5% | $91.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-825 | $-15,193 | +$2,577 | -$1,015 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-12,150 | $-16,326 | +$1,444 | -$12,340 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$125 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$1.26/sh | -$628 cycle -$603 | 62% surv 52% | +$171 SAFE cap gain +$17,941 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$130 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$44 cycle +$69 | 72% surv 64% | +$3,188 SAFE cap gain +$20,958 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $94/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $40/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,778 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $123.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $124-125.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $125.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $125.00 (3.9σ) | $25 | $800 | +$18,570 | +$5,335 |
| +2.5% | $128.12 (4.1σ) | $-1,538 | $643 | +$18,413 | +$5,335 |
| +5% | $131.25 (4.4σ) | $-3,100 | $487 | +$18,257 | +$5,335 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$123 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$1.19/sh | -$596 cycle -$571 | 62% surv 52% | -$696 NOT cap gain +$17,074 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$128 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$74 cycle +$99 | 72% surv 64% | +$2,318 SAFE cap gain +$20,088 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $94/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $40/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $121.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $122-123.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $123.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $123.00 (3.7σ) | $25 | $-101 | +$17,669 | +$4,335 |
| +2.5% | $126.07 (4.0σ) | $-1,512 | $-254 | +$17,516 | +$4,335 |
| +5% | $129.15 (4.2σ) | $-3,050 | $-408 | +$17,362 | +$4,335 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$118 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$1.03/sh | -$517 cycle -$492 | 62% surv 52% | -$2,868 NOT cap gain +$14,902 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$123 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$144 cycle +$169 | 72% surv 64% | +$138 SAFE cap gain +$17,908 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$124 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$11 cycle +$14 | 73% surv 66% | +$433 SAFE cap gain +$18,203 |
| budget: banked $25 debit $11 (46% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,449/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $94/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $40/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $116.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $117-118.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $118.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $118.00 (3.2σ) | $25 | $-2,351 | +$15,419 | +$1,835 |
| +2.5% | $120.95 (3.5σ) | $-1,450 | $-2,498 | +$15,272 | +$1,835 |
| +5% | $123.90 (3.8σ) | $-2,925 | $-2,645 | +$15,124 | +$1,835 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$117 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$1.00/sh | -$502 cycle -$472 | 62% surv 52% | -$3,298 NOT cap gain +$14,472 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$123 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$2 cycle +$32 | 73% surv 66% | +$1 SAFE cap gain +$17,771 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $59/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$371 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 2.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 0.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $115.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $116-117.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $117.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $117.00 (3.1σ) | $30 | $-2,796 | +$14,974 | +$1,340 |
| +2.5% | $119.92 (3.4σ) | $-1,432 | $-2,942 | +$14,828 | +$1,340 |
| +5% | $122.85 (3.7σ) | $-2,895 | $-3,088 | +$14,682 | +$1,340 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$116 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.97/sh | -$487 cycle -$452 | 62% surv 52% | -$3,728 NOT cap gain +$14,042 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$122 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$14 cycle +$49 | 73% surv 66% | -$432 NOT cap gain +$17,338 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $131/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $77/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$866 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 6.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 1.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $114.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $115-116.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $116.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $116.00 (3.0σ) | $35 | $-3,241 | +$14,529 | +$845 |
| +2.5% | $118.90 (3.3σ) | $-1,415 | $-3,386 | +$14,384 | +$845 |
| +5% | $121.80 (3.6σ) | $-2,865 | $-3,531 | +$14,239 | +$845 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.94/sh | -$472 cycle -$427 | 62% surv 52% | -$4,153 NOT cap gain +$13,617 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$121 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$27 cycle +$72 | 73% surv 66% | -$859 NOT cap gain +$16,911 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $169/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $115/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,356 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 9.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 2.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,788 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $113.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $114-115.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $115.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $115.00 (2.9σ) | $45 | $-3,681 | +$14,089 | +$355 |
| +2.5% | $117.87 (3.2σ) | $-1,392 | $-3,824 | +$13,946 | +$355 |
| +5% | $120.75 (3.5σ) | $-2,830 | $-3,968 | +$13,802 | +$355 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$114 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.92/sh | -$458 cycle -$413 | 62% surv 52% | -$4,588 NOT cap gain +$13,182 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$120 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$39 cycle +$84 | 73% surv 66% | -$1,297 NOT cap gain +$16,473 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $169/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $115/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,856 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 12.8% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 3.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,792 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $112.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $113-114.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $114.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $45 | $-4,131 | +$13,639 | -$145 |
| +2.5% | $116.85 (3.1σ) | $-1,380 | $-4,273 | +$13,497 | -$145 |
| +5% | $119.70 (3.4σ) | $-2,805 | $-4,416 | +$13,354 | -$145 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$113 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.89/sh | -$443 cycle -$388 | 62% surv 52% | -$5,014 NOT cap gain +$12,756 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$119 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$50 cycle +$105 | 73% surv 66% | -$1,726 NOT cap gain +$16,044 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $206/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $152/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,346 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 16.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 5.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,792 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $111.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $112-113.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $113.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $113.00 (2.7σ) | $55 | $-4,571 | +$13,199 | -$135 |
| +2.5% | $115.82 (3.0σ) | $-1,357 | $-4,712 | +$13,058 | -$635 |
| +5% | $118.65 (3.3σ) | $-2,770 | $-4,853 | +$12,917 | -$635 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$112 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.86/sh | -$429 cycle -$364 | 62% surv 52% | -$5,440 NOT cap gain +$12,330 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$118 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$61 cycle +$126 | 73% surv 66% | -$2,155 NOT cap gain +$15,615 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $244/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $190/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,836 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 19.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 6.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $110.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $111-112.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $112.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $112.00 (2.6σ) | $65 | $-5,011 | +$12,759 | -$125 |
| +2.5% | $114.80 (2.9σ) | $-1,335 | $-5,150 | +$12,620 | -$1,125 |
| +5% | $117.60 (3.2σ) | $-2,735 | $-5,291 | +$12,479 | -$1,125 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$117 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$72 cycle +$142 [+$197…+$777] · 86% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$2,589 NOT cap gain +$15,181 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$118 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.11/sh | -$56 cycle +$14 [+$46…+$638] · 82% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$2,267 NOT cap gain +$15,503 |
| budget: banked $70 debit $56 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,169/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$119 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.42/sh | -$210 cycle -$140 [-$129…+$479] · 61% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$1,971 NOT cap gain +$15,799 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$111 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.83/sh | -$415 cycle -$345 [-$281…+$261] · 43% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$5,871 NOT cap gain +$11,899 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $262/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $209/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,331 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 23.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 7.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,792 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $109.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $110-111.19 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $111.19 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $111.00 (2.5σ) | $70 | $-5,456 | +$12,314 | -$120 |
| +2.5% | $113.77 (2.8σ) | $-1,317 | $-5,594 | +$12,176 | -$1,507 |
| +5% | $116.55 (3.1σ) | $-2,705 | $-5,733 | +$12,037 | -$1,620 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$110 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.80/sh | -$401 cycle -$316 | 62% surv 52% | -$6,292 NOT cap gain +$11,478 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$116 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$83 cycle +$168 | 73% surv 66% | -$3,013 NOT cap gain +$14,757 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$117 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.09/sh | -$45 cycle +$40 | 75% surv 68% | -$2,691 NOT cap gain +$15,079 |
| budget: banked $85 debit $45 (53% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,158/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $319/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $265/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,816 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 26.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 8.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,785 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $108.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $109-110.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $110.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $110.00 (2.5σ) | $85 | $-5,891 | +$11,879 | -$105 |
| +2.5% | $112.75 (2.7σ) | $-1,290 | $-6,028 | +$11,742 | -$1,480 |
| +5% | $115.50 (3.0σ) | $-2,665 | $-6,166 | +$11,604 | -$2,105 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$115 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$93 cycle +$188 [-$13…+$640] · 67% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$3,443 NOT cap gain +$14,327 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$116 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.07/sh | -$35 cycle +$60 [-$177…+$502] · 62% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$3,121 NOT cap gain +$14,649 |
| budget: banked $95 debit $35 (37% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$60 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,145/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$109 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.78/sh | -$388 cycle -$293 [-$487…+$142] · 40% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$6,718 NOT cap gain +$11,052 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $356/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $302/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,306 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 29.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 9.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,792 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $107.91 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $108-109.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $109.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $109.00 (2.4σ) | $95 | $-6,331 | +$11,439 | -$95 |
| +2.5% | $111.72 (2.6σ) | $-1,267 | $-6,467 | +$11,303 | -$1,457 |
| +5% | $114.45 (2.9σ) | $-2,630 | $-6,603 | +$11,167 | -$2,595 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$114 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$103 cycle +$183 [-$97…+$647] · 70% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$3,898 NOT cap gain +$13,872 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$115 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.05/sh | -$25 cycle +$55 [-$254…+$511] · 65% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$3,576 NOT cap gain +$14,194 |
| budget: banked $80 debit $25 (31% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,133/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$108 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.75/sh | -$374 cycle -$294 [-$546…+$153] · 40% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$7,170 NOT cap gain +$10,600 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $246/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,821 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 33.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 10.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,805 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $106.92 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $107-108.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $108.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $108.00 (2.3σ) | $80 | $-6,796 | +$10,974 | -$110 |
| +2.5% | $110.70 (2.5σ) | $-1,270 | $-6,931 | +$10,839 | -$1,460 |
| +5% | $113.40 (2.8σ) | $-2,620 | $-7,066 | +$10,704 | -$2,810 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-2,920 | $-7,096 | +$10,674 | -$3,110 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$113 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$113 cycle +$233 [-$76…+$641] · 68% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$4,298 NOT cap gain +$13,472 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$115 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$92 cycle +$28 [-$330…+$425] · 54% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$3,828 NOT cap gain +$13,942 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $92 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,992/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$107 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.72/sh | -$361 cycle -$241 [-$539…+$151] · 35% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$7,567 NOT cap gain +$10,203 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -82% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $396/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,281 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 36.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 11.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,795 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $105.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $106-107.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $107.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $107.00 (2.2σ) | $120 | $-7,206 | +$10,564 | -$70 |
| +2.5% | $109.67 (2.4σ) | $-1,217 | $-7,339 | +$10,431 | -$1,407 |
| +5% | $112.35 (2.7σ) | $-2,555 | $-7,473 | +$10,297 | -$2,745 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-3,380 | $-7,556 | +$10,214 | -$3,570 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$122 cycle +$262 [-$124…+$573] · 69% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$4,719 NOT cap gain +$13,051 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$114 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.16/sh | -$82 cycle +$58 [-$379…+$350] · 51% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$4,248 NOT cap gain +$13,522 |
| budget: banked $140 debit $82 (59% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,979/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$106 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.70/sh | -$348 cycle -$208 [-$591…+$90] · 27% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$7,983 NOT cap gain +$9,787 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $525/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -79% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $471/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,761 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 39.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 12.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,792 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $104.94 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $105-106.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $106.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $106.00 (2.1σ) | $140 | $-7,636 | +$10,134 | -$50 |
| +2.5% | $108.65 (2.3σ) | $-1,185 | $-7,768 | +$10,002 | -$1,375 |
| +5% | $111.30 (2.6σ) | $-2,510 | $-7,901 | +$9,869 | -$2,700 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-3,860 | $-8,036 | +$9,734 | -$4,050 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$111 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$131 cycle +$286 [+$5…+$563] · 75% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$5,145 NOT cap gain +$12,625 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$158 [-$150…+$422] · 58% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$4,823 NOT cap gain +$12,947 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$113 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.30/sh | -$149 cycle +$6 [-$326…+$258] · 41% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$4,525 NOT cap gain +$13,245 |
| budget: banked $155 debit $149 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,838/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$105 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.67/sh | -$335 cycle -$180 [-$462…+$85] · 33% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$8,406 NOT cap gain +$9,364 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $581/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $527/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,246 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 43.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 13.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $103.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $104-105.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $105.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $105.00 (2.0σ) | $155 | $-8,071 | +$9,699 | -$35 |
| +2.5% | $107.62 (2.2σ) | $-1,157 | $-8,202 | +$9,568 | -$1,347 |
| +5% | $110.25 (2.5σ) | $-2,470 | $-8,333 | +$9,437 | -$2,660 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-4,345 | $-8,521 | +$9,249 | -$4,535 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$110 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$139 cycle +$314 [-$102…+$589] · 68% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$5,567 NOT cap gain +$12,203 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$111 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$12 cycle +$187 [-$251…+$449] · 54% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$5,244 NOT cap gain +$12,526 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.28/sh | -$140 cycle +$35 [-$436…+$287] · 42% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$4,946 NOT cap gain +$12,824 |
| budget: banked $175 debit $140 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$35 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,824/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$104 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.64/sh | -$322 cycle -$147 [-$562…+$114] · 32% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$8,823 NOT cap gain +$8,947 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -74% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $602/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,726 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 46.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 14.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,798 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $102.96 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $103-104.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $104.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $104.00 (1.9σ) | $175 | $-8,501 | +$9,269 | -$15 |
| +2.5% | $106.60 (2.1σ) | $-1,125 | $-8,631 | +$9,139 | -$1,315 |
| +5% | $109.20 (2.4σ) | $-2,425 | $-8,761 | +$9,009 | -$2,615 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-4,825 | $-9,001 | +$8,769 | -$5,015 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$109 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.30/sh | +$148 cycle +$343 [-$137…+$551] · 63% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$5,988 NOT cap gain +$11,782 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$110 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$20 cycle +$215 [-$298…+$410] · 52% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$5,666 NOT cap gain +$12,104 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$112 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.36/sh | -$182 cycle +$13 [-$548…+$188] · 39% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$5,193 NOT cap gain +$12,577 |
| budget: banked $195 debit $182 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,724/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$103 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.62/sh | -$310 cycle -$115 [-$588…+$82] · 31% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$9,240 NOT cap gain +$8,530 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $731/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $677/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,206 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 49.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 15.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,798 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $101.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $102-103.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $103.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $103.00 (1.8σ) | $195 | $-8,931 | +$8,839 | +$5 |
| +2.5% | $105.57 (2.0σ) | $-1,092 | $-9,059 | +$8,711 | -$1,282 |
| +5% | $108.15 (2.3σ) | $-2,380 | $-9,188 | +$8,582 | -$2,570 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-5,305 | $-9,481 | +$8,289 | -$5,495 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$108 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$156 cycle +$376 [-$92…+$519] · 64% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$6,405 NOT cap gain +$11,365 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$109 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$28 cycle +$248 [-$250…+$378] · 53% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$6,083 NOT cap gain +$11,687 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$111 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.35/sh | -$174 cycle +$46 [-$492…+$176] · 35% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$5,610 NOT cap gain +$12,160 |
| budget: banked $220 debit $174 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,709/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$102 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.59/sh | -$297 cycle -$77 [-$546…+$56] · 29% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$9,653 NOT cap gain +$8,117 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -67% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $771/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,681 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 53.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 16.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $100.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $101-102.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $102.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $102.00 (1.7σ) | $220 | $-9,356 | +$8,414 | +$30 |
| +2.5% | $104.55 (1.9σ) | $-1,055 | $-9,483 | +$8,287 | -$1,245 |
| +5% | $107.10 (2.2σ) | $-2,330 | $-9,611 | +$8,159 | -$2,520 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-5,780 | $-9,956 | +$7,814 | -$5,970 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$106 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.63/sh | +$315 cycle +$565 [+$8…+$665] · 76% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$7,116 NOT cap gain +$10,654 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$108 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$36 cycle +$286 [-$326…+$371] · 51% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$6,495 NOT cap gain +$11,275 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$110 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.48/sh | -$240 cycle +$10 [-$684…+$70] · 31% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$5,871 NOT cap gain +$11,899 |
| budget: banked $250 debit $240 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$10 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,568/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$101 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.57/sh | -$285 cycle -$35 [-$615…+$53] · 29% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$10,061 NOT cap gain +$7,709 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $938/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $884/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,151 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 56.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 17.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.99 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $100-101.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $101.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $101.00 (1.6σ) | $250 | $-9,776 | +$7,994 | +$60 |
| +2.5% | $103.52 (1.8σ) | $-1,012 | $-9,902 | +$7,868 | -$1,202 |
| +5% | $106.05 (2.1σ) | $-2,275 | $-10,028 | +$7,742 | -$2,465 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-6,250 | $-10,426 | +$7,344 | -$6,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$106 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$170 cycle +$470 [-$176…+$451] · 63% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$7,211 NOT cap gain +$10,559 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$44 cycle +$344 [-$324…+$320] · 51% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$6,887 NOT cap gain +$10,883 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$109 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.46/sh | -$232 cycle +$68 [-$667…+$31] · 26% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$6,263 NOT cap gain +$11,507 |
| budget: banked $300 debit $232 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$68 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,552/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$100 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.55/sh | -$273 cycle +$27 [-$605…-$1] · 25% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$10,449 NOT cap gain +$7,321 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -55% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,071/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,601 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 59.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 18.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,795 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $99-100.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $100.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $100.00 (1.5σ) | $300 | $-10,176 | +$7,594 | +$110 |
| +2.5% | $102.50 (1.7σ) | $-950 | $-10,301 | +$7,469 | -$1,140 |
| +5% | $105.00 (2.0σ) | $-2,200 | $-10,426 | +$7,344 | -$2,390 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-6,700 | $-10,876 | +$6,894 | -$6,890 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$177 cycle +$497 [-$139…+$456] · 67% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$7,634 NOT cap gain +$10,136 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$106 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$51 cycle +$371 [-$281…+$311] · 53% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$7,310 NOT cap gain +$10,460 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$108 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.45/sh | -$224 cycle +$96 [-$610…+$26] · 27% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$6,685 NOT cap gain +$11,085 |
| budget: banked $320 debit $224 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,536/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$99 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.52/sh | -$261 cycle +$59 [-$575…+$12] · 25% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$10,867 NOT cap gain +$6,903 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,146/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,081 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 62.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 19.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,802 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $98.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $98-99.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $99.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $99.00 (1.4σ) | $320 | $-10,606 | +$7,164 | +$130 |
| +2.5% | $101.47 (1.7σ) | $-917 | $-10,729 | +$7,041 | -$1,107 |
| +5% | $103.95 (1.9σ) | $-2,155 | $-10,853 | +$6,917 | -$2,345 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-7,180 | $-11,356 | +$6,414 | -$7,370 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.68/sh | +$340 cycle +$675 [+$0…+$527] · 75% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$8,806 NOT cap gain +$8,964 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$64 cycle +$399 [-$325…+$223] · 43% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$8,182 NOT cap gain +$9,588 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$97 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.48/sh | -$238 cycle +$97 [-$606…-$70] · 20% credit | 62% surv 52% | -$11,729 NOT cap gain +$6,041 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.62/sh | -$310 cycle +$25 [-$779…-$181] · 16% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$7,206 NOT cap gain +$10,564 |
| budget: banked $335 debit $310 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$25 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,335/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,256/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -50% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 25% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,202/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,066 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 69.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 21.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,842 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $96.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $96-97.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $97.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $97.00 (1.2σ) | $335 | $-11,491 | +$6,279 | +$145 |
| +2.5% | $99.42 (1.5σ) | $-877 | $-11,612 | +$6,158 | -$1,067 |
| +5% | $101.85 (1.7σ) | $-2,090 | $-11,733 | +$6,037 | -$2,280 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-8,165 | $-12,341 | +$5,429 | -$8,355 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.70/sh | +$351 cycle +$876 [-$22…+$520] · 73% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$9,505 NOT cap gain +$8,265 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$1 cycle +$526 [-$448…+$141] · 33% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$8,730 NOT cap gain +$9,040 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$95 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$0.43/sh | -$216 cycle +$309 [-$614…-$69] · 22% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$12,416 NOT cap gain +$5,354 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.00/sh | -$502 cycle +$23 [-$1,094…-$385] · 8% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$7,208 NOT cap gain +$10,562 |
| budget: banked $525 debit $502 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,956/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,969/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,525/mo) | -22% |
| vs normal income ($5,050/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,915/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,876 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 75.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 23.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-17,802 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $94.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $94-96.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $95.00 (1.0σ) | $525 | $-12,201 | +$5,569 | +$335 |
| +2.5% | $97.37 (1.3σ) | $-662 | $-12,319 | +$5,451 | -$852 |
| +5% | $99.75 (1.5σ) | $-1,850 | $-12,438 | +$5,332 | -$2,040 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (2.8σ) | $-8,975 | $-13,151 | +$4,619 | -$9,165 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,458 cycle +$2,298 [+$1,346…+$1,840] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$19,582 NOT cap gain +$12,538 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.52/sh | +$786 cycle +$1,626 [+$380…+$993] · 95% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$12,880 NOT cap gain +$19,240 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$286 cycle +$1,126 [-$230…+$482] · 55% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$11,580 NOT cap gain +$20,540 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$61 cycle +$901 [-$416…+$236] · 40% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$18,105 NOT cap gain +$14,015 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.39/sh | -$585 cycle +$255 [-$1,287…-$469] · 9% credit | 81% surv 79% | -$6,949 NOT cap gain +$25,171 |
| budget: banked $840 debit $585 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$255 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,385/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -61% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-4,684/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,660 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 64.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 36.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-24,203 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-37.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $840 | $-21,040 | +$11,080 | +$345 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (1.0σ) | $-547 | $-20,763 | +$11,357 | -$1,042 |
| +5% | $38.85 (1.2σ) | $-1,935 | $-20,485 | +$11,635 | -$2,430 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-9,660 | $-18,940 | +$13,180 | -$10,155 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,589 cycle +$2,864 [+$1,369…+$1,939] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$20,883 NOT cap gain +$11,237 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.47/sh | +$796 cycle +$2,071 [+$273…+$964] · 92% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$14,301 NOT cap gain +$17,819 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$246 cycle +$1,521 [-$403…+$356] · 41% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$13,051 NOT cap gain +$19,069 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$41 cycle +$1,316 [-$554…+$136] · 31% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$19,556 NOT cap gain +$12,564 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.73/sh | -$1,244 cycle +$31 [-$2,347…-$1,316] · 1% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$6,920 NOT cap gain +$25,200 |
| budget: banked $1,275 debit $1,244 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,685/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,781/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -41% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,184/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,791 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 77.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 44.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-27,328 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-36.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,275 | $-22,471 | +$9,649 | +$714 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-255 | $-22,381 | +$9,739 | -$816 |
| +5% | $37.80 (1.0σ) | $-1,785 | $-22,291 | +$9,829 | -$2,346 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-12,325 | $-21,671 | +$10,449 | -$12,886 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.83/sh | +$1,569 cycle +$4,115 [+$1,245…+$1,523] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$25,098 NOT cap gain +$7,022 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.57/sh | +$1,088 cycle +$3,634 [+$679…+$936] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$24,504 NOT cap gain +$7,616 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$814 cycle +$3,360 [+$106…+$523] · 83% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$19,378 NOT cap gain +$12,742 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$29 cycle +$2,575 [-$928…-$374] · 11% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$17,463 NOT cap gain +$14,657 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,879 cycle +$667 [-$3,572…-$2,550] | 90% surv 90% | -$4,330 NOT cap gain +$27,790 |
| budget: banked $2,546 debit $1,879 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$667 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,594/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,548/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +17% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,450/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,287 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 100.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 57.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-30,647 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-34.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $34.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,546 | $-26,666 | +$5,454 | +$1,919 |
| +2.5% | $33.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $979 | $-26,749 | +$5,371 | +$352 |
| +5% | $34.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-589 | $-26,831 | +$5,289 | -$1,216 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-18,354 | $-27,766 | +$4,354 | -$18,981 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.56/sh | +$3,125 cycle +$3,225 | 66% surv 56% | +$6,380 SAFE cap gain +$38,500 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$472 cycle +$572 | 71% surv 65% | +$10,202 SAFE cap gain +$42,322 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$489 cycle +$589 | 77% surv 73% | +$19,218 SAFE cap gain +$51,338 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,789/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$566 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 1.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 1.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,270 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $50.49 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $51.00 (3.1σ) | $100 | $3,255 | +$35,375 | +$13,440 |
| +2.5% | $52.27 (3.3σ) | $-2,450 | $3,000 | +$35,120 | +$13,440 |
| +5% | $53.55 (3.5σ) | $-5,000 | $2,745 | +$34,865 | +$13,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.52/sh | +$3,033 cycle +$3,133 | 66% surv 56% | +$4,488 SAFE cap gain +$36,608 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$407 cycle +$507 | 71% surv 65% | +$8,336 SAFE cap gain +$40,456 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$379 cycle +$479 | 77% surv 73% | +$17,308 SAFE cap gain +$49,428 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,789/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,566 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 8.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 4.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,190 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (2.9σ) | $100 | $1,455 | +$33,575 | +$11,440 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (3.1σ) | $-2,400 | $1,205 | +$33,325 | +$11,440 |
| +5% | $52.50 (3.3σ) | $-4,900 | $955 | +$33,075 | +$11,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.47/sh | +$2,942 cycle +$3,102 [+$3,331…+$4,633] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | +$2,656 SAFE cap gain +$34,776 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$342 cycle +$502 [+$239…+$1,786] · 86% credit | 71% surv 65% | +$6,531 SAFE cap gain +$38,651 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$271 cycle +$431 [+$74…+$1,998] · 76% credit | 77% surv 73% | +$15,461 SAFE cap gain +$47,581 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,564/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,506 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 14.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 8.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,170 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.00 (2.8σ) | $160 | $-285 | +$31,835 | +$9,500 |
| +2.5% | $50.22 (2.9σ) | $-2,290 | $-530 | +$31,590 | +$9,500 |
| +5% | $51.45 (3.1σ) | $-4,740 | $-775 | +$31,345 | +$9,500 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.43/sh | +$2,852 cycle +$2,952 [+$3,587…+$4,257] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | +$706 SAFE cap gain +$32,826 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$279 cycle +$379 [+$333…+$1,632] · 87% credit | 72% surv 65% | +$4,608 SAFE cap gain +$36,728 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$167 cycle +$267 [+$178…+$1,771] · 82% credit | 78% surv 74% | +$13,496 SAFE cap gain +$45,616 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,789/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,566 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 20.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 11.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,370 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (2.6σ) | $100 | $-2,145 | +$29,975 | +$7,440 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (2.8σ) | $-2,300 | $-2,385 | +$29,735 | +$7,440 |
| +5% | $50.40 (3.0σ) | $-4,700 | $-2,625 | +$29,495 | +$7,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.38/sh | +$2,763 cycle +$2,863 [+$3,300…+$4,111] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$1,182 NOT cap gain +$30,938 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$217 cycle +$317 [+$214…+$1,342] · 84% credit | 72% surv 66% | +$2,746 SAFE cap gain +$34,866 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$65 cycle +$165 [+$55…+$1,419] · 78% credit | 78% surv 74% | +$11,594 SAFE cap gain +$43,714 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,789/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,566 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 26.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 15.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,310 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.4σ) | $100 | $-3,945 | +$28,175 | +$5,440 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (2.6σ) | $-2,250 | $-4,180 | +$27,940 | +$5,440 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.8σ) | $-4,600 | $-4,415 | +$27,705 | +$5,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.34/sh | +$2,676 cycle +$2,796 [+$2,995…+$3,981] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$3,050 NOT cap gain +$29,070 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$156 cycle +$276 [-$36…+$1,158] · 73% credit | 72% surv 66% | +$905 SAFE cap gain +$33,025 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$18 cycle +$138 [-$309…+$1,311] · 64% credit | 75% surv 71% | +$6,168 SAFE cap gain +$38,288 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$34 cycle +$86 [-$361…+$1,180] · 62% credit | 78% surv 74% | +$9,715 SAFE cap gain +$41,835 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $34 (28% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,834/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,714/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,546 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 33.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 18.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,220 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (2.3σ) | $120 | $-5,725 | +$26,395 | +$3,460 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.5σ) | $-2,180 | $-5,955 | +$26,165 | +$3,460 |
| +5% | $48.30 (2.6σ) | $-4,480 | $-6,185 | +$25,935 | +$3,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.29/sh | +$2,589 cycle +$2,709 [+$2,921…+$3,860] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$4,936 NOT cap gain +$27,184 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$546 cycle +$666 [+$276…+$1,828] · 83% credit | 74% surv 69% | +$3,095 SAFE cap gain +$35,215 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$97 cycle +$217 [-$124…+$1,136] · 73% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$954 NOT cap gain +$31,166 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$52 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$61 cycle +$59 [-$426…+$1,198] · 60% credit | 76% surv 72% | +$4,288 SAFE cap gain +$36,408 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $61 (51% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,546/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,714/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,546 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 39.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 22.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,260 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (2.1σ) | $120 | $-7,525 | +$24,595 | +$1,460 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.3σ) | $-2,130 | $-7,750 | +$24,370 | +$1,460 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.5σ) | $-4,380 | $-7,975 | +$24,145 | +$1,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.25/sh | +$2,504 cycle +$2,684 [+$2,778…+$3,720] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$6,761 NOT cap gain +$25,359 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$457 cycle +$637 [+$124…+$1,586] · 80% credit | 74% surv 70% | +$1,266 SAFE cap gain +$33,386 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$38 cycle +$218 [-$240…+$873] · 62% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$2,752 NOT cap gain +$29,368 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.07/sh | -$138 cycle +$42 [-$555…+$933] · 54% credit | 76% surv 72% | +$2,471 SAFE cap gain +$34,591 |
| budget: banked $180 debit $138 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,177/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $675/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,489/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,486 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 45.3% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 25.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,430 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $180 | $-9,265 | +$22,855 | -$480 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (2.1σ) | $-2,020 | $-9,485 | +$22,635 | -$480 |
| +5% | $46.20 (2.3σ) | $-4,220 | $-9,705 | +$22,415 | -$480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.17/sh | +$2,338 cycle +$2,738 [+$2,389…+$3,467] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$10,307 NOT cap gain +$21,813 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$285 cycle +$685 [-$267…+$1,281] · 64% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$2,285 NOT cap gain +$29,835 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$22 cycle +$422 [-$433…+$837] · 54% credit | 70% surv 64% | -$7,949 NOT cap gain +$24,171 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.20/sh | -$399 cycle +$1 [-$1,021…+$481] · 36% credit | 79% surv 76% | +$2,430 SAFE cap gain +$34,550 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $399 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,271/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -82% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-6,664/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,266 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 57.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 32.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,180 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.00 (1.7σ) | $400 | $-12,645 | +$19,475 | -$260 |
| +2.5% | $43.05 (1.8σ) | $-1,700 | $-12,855 | +$19,265 | -$2,360 |
| +5% | $44.10 (2.0σ) | $-3,800 | $-13,065 | +$19,055 | -$4,260 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.13/sh | +$2,257 cycle +$2,737 [+$2,304…+$3,291] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$12,109 NOT cap gain +$20,011 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$220 cycle +$700 [-$167…+$903] · 64% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$11,271 NOT cap gain +$20,849 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$203 cycle +$683 [-$313…+$963] · 62% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$4,088 NOT cap gain +$28,032 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$355 cycle +$125 [-$974…+$374] · 35% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$2,846 NOT cap gain +$29,274 |
| budget: banked $480 debit $355 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,113/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-6,364/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,186 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 63.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 36.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,180 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.5σ) | $480 | $-14,365 | +$17,755 | -$180 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.7σ) | $-1,570 | $-14,570 | +$17,550 | -$2,230 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.8σ) | $-3,620 | $-14,775 | +$17,345 | -$4,280 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-5,520 | $-14,965 | +$17,155 | -$6,180 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.09/sh | +$2,177 cycle +$2,817 [+$2,191…+$2,825] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$13,829 NOT cap gain +$18,291 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$672 cycle +$1,312 [+$174…+$1,313] · 83% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$6,159 NOT cap gain +$25,961 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$184 cycle +$824 [-$301…+$752] · 56% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$12,947 NOT cap gain +$19,173 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$122 cycle +$762 [-$495…+$756] · 51% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$5,809 NOT cap gain +$26,311 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.28/sh | -$562 cycle +$78 [-$1,273…-$13] · 25% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$1,093 NOT cap gain +$31,027 |
| budget: banked $640 debit $562 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,540/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,764/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,026 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 68.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 39.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,140 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (1.3σ) | $640 | $-16,005 | +$16,115 | -$20 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.5σ) | $-1,360 | $-16,205 | +$15,915 | -$2,020 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.7σ) | $-3,360 | $-16,405 | +$15,715 | -$4,020 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-7,360 | $-16,805 | +$15,315 | -$8,020 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.07/sh | +$2,137 cycle +$2,417 [+$2,059…+$2,925] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$15,128 NOT cap gain +$16,992 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$622 cycle +$902 [+$101…+$1,237] · 80% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$7,469 NOT cap gain +$24,651 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$167 cycle +$447 [-$353…+$696] · 51% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$14,224 NOT cap gain +$17,896 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$83 cycle +$363 [-$574…+$657] · 44% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$7,108 NOT cap gain +$25,012 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,114/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,386 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 73.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 41.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,570 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.87 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.87 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.50 (1.3σ) | $280 | $-17,265 | +$14,855 | -$380 |
| +2.5% | $40.49 (1.4σ) | $-1,695 | $-17,463 | +$14,657 | -$2,355 |
| +5% | $41.48 (1.6σ) | $-3,670 | $-17,660 | +$14,460 | -$4,330 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-8,720 | $-18,165 | +$13,955 | -$9,380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.05/sh | +$2,098 cycle +$2,378 [+$1,961…+$2,672] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$16,068 NOT cap gain +$16,052 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$572 cycle +$852 [-$38…+$1,137] · 73% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$8,418 NOT cap gain +$23,702 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$149 cycle +$429 [-$456…+$633] · 50% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$15,142 NOT cap gain +$16,978 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$44 cycle +$324 [-$737…+$542] · 42% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$8,047 NOT cap gain +$24,073 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,114/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,386 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 76.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 43.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,630 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (1.2σ) | $280 | $-18,165 | +$13,955 | -$380 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (1.3σ) | $-1,670 | $-18,360 | +$13,760 | -$2,330 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.5σ) | $-3,620 | $-18,555 | +$13,565 | -$4,280 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-9,720 | $-19,165 | +$12,955 | -$10,380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.03/sh | +$2,059 cycle +$2,819 [+$1,922…+$2,621] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$16,526 NOT cap gain +$15,594 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$524 cycle +$1,284 [-$65…+$1,025] · 71% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$8,887 NOT cap gain +$23,233 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$132 cycle +$892 [-$432…+$550] · 47% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$15,579 NOT cap gain +$16,541 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$6 cycle +$766 [-$721…+$424] · 37% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$8,505 NOT cap gain +$23,615 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$675 cycle +$85 [-$1,495…-$339] · 18% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$3,786 NOT cap gain +$28,334 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $675 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,016/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,850/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,314/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,906 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 77.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 44.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,440 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.04 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.04 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.50 (1.1σ) | $760 | $-18,585 | +$13,535 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $39.46 (1.3σ) | $-1,165 | $-18,778 | +$13,342 | -$1,825 |
| +5% | $40.43 (1.4σ) | $-3,090 | $-18,970 | +$13,150 | -$3,750 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-10,240 | $-19,685 | +$12,435 | -$10,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.99/sh | +$1,982 cycle +$2,522 [+$1,841…+$2,514] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$18,623 NOT cap gain +$13,497 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$428 cycle +$968 [-$203…+$710] · 60% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$11,003 NOT cap gain +$21,117 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$98 cycle +$638 [-$490…+$338] · 42% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$17,633 NOT cap gain +$14,487 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.25/sh | -$497 cycle +$43 [-$1,366…-$290] · 19% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$10,128 NOT cap gain +$21,992 |
| budget: banked $540 debit $497 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,093/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -75% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-6,139/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,126 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 84.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 48.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,640 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $540 | $-20,605 | +$11,515 | -$120 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (1.1σ) | $-1,335 | $-20,793 | +$11,327 | -$1,995 |
| +5% | $39.38 (1.2σ) | $-3,210 | $-20,980 | +$11,140 | -$3,870 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-12,460 | $-21,905 | +$10,215 | -$13,120 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.95/sh | +$1,906 cycle +$2,686 [+$1,645…+$2,300] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$20,259 NOT cap gain +$11,861 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.50/sh | +$992 cycle +$1,772 [+$398…+$1,185] · 95% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$13,799 NOT cap gain +$18,321 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$334 cycle +$1,114 [-$388…+$453] · 46% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$12,656 NOT cap gain +$19,464 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$65 cycle +$845 [-$608…+$164] · 32% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$19,226 NOT cap gain +$12,894 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$639 cycle +$141 [-$1,610…-$616] · 12% credit | 78% surv 75% | -$10,930 NOT cap gain +$21,190 |
| budget: banked $780 debit $639 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$141 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,641/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,925/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,239/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,886 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 90.3% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 51.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,500 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-37.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $780 | $-22,165 | +$9,955 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,045 | $-22,348 | +$9,772 | -$1,705 |
| +5% | $38.33 (1.1σ) | $-2,870 | $-22,530 | +$9,590 | -$3,530 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-14,220 | $-23,665 | +$8,455 | -$14,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.92/sh | +$1,832 cycle +$3,432 [+$1,567…+$2,064] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$21,314 NOT cap gain +$10,806 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.44/sh | +$881 cycle +$2,481 [+$242…+$905] · 89% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$14,889 NOT cap gain +$17,231 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$244 cycle +$1,844 [-$550…+$190] · 33% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$13,727 NOT cap gain +$18,393 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$32 cycle +$1,632 [-$693…-$21] · 24% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$20,238 NOT cap gain +$11,882 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.74/sh | -$1,476 cycle +$124 [-$2,794…-$1,759] · 1% credit | 83% surv 82% | -$7,347 NOT cap gain +$24,773 |
| budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,476 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,033/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -27% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,164/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,066 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 94.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 53.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,400 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-36.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,600 | $-23,145 | +$8,975 | +$940 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-175 | $-23,323 | +$8,797 | -$835 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,950 | $-23,500 | +$8,620 | -$2,610 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-15,400 | $-24,845 | +$7,275 | -$16,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,795 cycle +$3,555 [+$1,526…+$2,008] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$22,090 NOT cap gain +$10,030 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.41/sh | +$827 cycle +$2,587 [+$154…+$798] · 86% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$15,684 NOT cap gain +$16,436 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$200 cycle +$1,960 [-$638…+$93] · 28% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$14,511 NOT cap gain +$17,609 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$17 cycle +$1,777 [-$744…-$81] · 22% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$20,994 NOT cap gain +$11,126 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.87/sh | -$1,739 cycle +$21 [-$3,193…-$2,084] | 87% surv 86% | -$4,750 NOT cap gain +$27,370 |
| budget: banked $1,760 debit $1,739 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,489/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -19% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 72% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,564/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,906 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 96.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 55.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,230 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,760 | $-23,885 | +$8,235 | +$1,100 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $10 | $-24,060 | +$8,060 | -$650 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,740 | $-24,235 | +$7,885 | -$2,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-16,240 | $-25,685 | +$6,435 | -$16,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.88/sh | +$1,759 cycle +$3,259 [+$1,478…+$1,957] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$23,287 NOT cap gain +$8,833 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.39/sh | +$774 cycle +$2,274 [+$88…+$692] · 83% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$16,897 NOT cap gain +$15,223 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$156 cycle +$1,656 [-$692…-$34] · 24% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$15,714 NOT cap gain +$16,406 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$1 cycle +$1,501 [-$764…-$171] · 19% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$22,170 NOT cap gain +$9,950 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.75/sh | -$1,498 cycle +$2 [-$2,863…-$1,915] · 1% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$9,269 NOT cap gain +$22,851 |
| budget: banked $1,500 debit $1,498 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,786/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 61% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,539/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,166 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 100.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 57.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,620 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-35.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,500 | $-25,045 | +$7,075 | +$840 |
| +2.5% | $35.36 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-225 | $-25,218 | +$6,902 | -$885 |
| +5% | $36.23 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,950 | $-25,390 | +$6,730 | -$2,610 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-17,500 | $-26,945 | +$5,175 | -$18,160 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,722 cycle +$3,902 [+$1,376…+$1,836] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$23,543 NOT cap gain +$8,577 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.61/sh | +$1,211 cycle +$3,391 [+$793…+$1,201] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$22,980 NOT cap gain +$9,140 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$721 cycle +$2,901 [-$25…+$575] · 73% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$17,170 NOT cap gain +$14,950 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$114 cycle +$2,294 [-$818…-$125] · 21% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$15,977 NOT cap gain +$16,143 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,978 cycle +$202 [-$3,641…-$2,488] | 90% surv 89% | -$2,769 NOT cap gain +$29,351 |
| budget: banked $2,180 debit $1,978 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$202 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,882/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,175/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 89% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,486 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 101.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 58.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,390 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.66 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-35.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,180 | $-25,265 | +$6,855 | +$1,520 |
| +2.5% | $34.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $480 | $-25,435 | +$6,685 | -$180 |
| +5% | $35.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,220 | $-25,605 | +$6,515 | -$1,880 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-17,820 | $-27,265 | +$4,855 | -$18,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.84/sh | +$1,518 cycle +$3,696 [+$1,209…+$1,529] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$24,583 NOT cap gain +$7,537 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.59/sh | +$1,060 cycle +$3,238 [+$675…+$960] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$23,967 NOT cap gain +$8,153 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$602 cycle +$2,780 [-$105…+$359] · 64% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$18,125 NOT cap gain +$13,995 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$65 cycle +$2,243 [-$822…-$274] · 16% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$16,862 NOT cap gain +$15,258 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.12/sh | -$2,025 cycle +$153 [-$3,718…-$2,623] | 92% surv 92% | -$1,071 NOT cap gain +$31,049 |
| budget: banked $2,178 debit $2,025 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$153 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,193/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,167/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 89% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $136/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,922 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 93.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 53.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-29,034 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-34.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $34.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,178 | $-26,101 | +$6,019 | +$1,584 |
| +2.5% | $34.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $671 | $-26,101 | +$6,019 | +$77 |
| +5% | $35.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-837 | $-26,101 | +$6,019 | -$1,431 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-16,722 | $-26,101 | +$6,019 | -$17,316 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.79/sh | +$1,107 cycle +$3,389 [+$873…+$1,018] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$27,459 NOT cap gain +$4,661 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.54/sh | +$757 cycle +$3,039 [+$441…+$581] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$26,734 NOT cap gain +$5,386 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.38/sh | +$526 cycle +$2,808 [-$51…+$246] · 68% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$21,565 NOT cap gain +$10,555 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$362 cycle +$2,644 [-$263…+$61] · 33% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$20,828 NOT cap gain +$11,292 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,380 cycle +$902 [-$2,766…-$1,914] | 91% surv 90% | -$6,429 NOT cap gain +$25,691 |
| budget: banked $2,282 debit $1,380 (60% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$902 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $1,039/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,558/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 93% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $790/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,784 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 77.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 44.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-22,568 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $31.68 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $32-33.69 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.69 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $32.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,282 | $-28,565 | +$3,555 | +$1,820 |
| +2.5% | $32.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,162 | $-28,245 | +$3,875 | +$700 |
| +5% | $33.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $42 | $-27,925 | +$4,195 | -$420 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-14,518 | $-23,765 | +$8,355 | -$14,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.77/sh | +$1,160 cycle +$3,470 [+$912…+$993] · 100% credit | 65% surv 55% | -$28,311 NOT cap gain +$3,809 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.52/sh | +$787 cycle +$3,097 [+$431…+$577] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$27,609 NOT cap gain +$4,511 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$35 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.48/sh | +$714 cycle +$3,024 [+$104…+$378] · 84% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$23,182 NOT cap gain +$8,938 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$351 cycle +$2,661 [-$382…-$22] · 22% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$21,744 NOT cap gain +$10,376 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.98/sh | -$1,475 cycle +$835 [-$3,121…-$2,110] | 91% surv 91% | -$7,020 NOT cap gain +$25,100 |
| budget: banked $2,310 debit $1,475 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$835 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $1,045/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,662/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 94% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $829/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,440 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 85.7% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 49.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-24,390 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $31.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-33.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,310 | $-29,470 | +$2,650 | +$1,815 |
| +2.5% | $32.29 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,129 | $-29,234 | +$2,886 | +$634 |
| +5% | $33.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-53 | $-28,998 | +$3,122 | -$548 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-16,440 | $-25,720 | +$6,400 | -$16,935 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$832 cycle +$3,021 | 65% surv 55% | -$28,802 NOT cap gain +$3,318 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.39/sh | +$432 cycle +$2,621 | 68% surv 60% | -$28,128 NOT cap gain +$3,992 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$144 cycle +$2,333 | 77% surv 73% | -$22,115 NOT cap gain +$10,005 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.00/sh | -$1,102 cycle +$1,087 | 92% surv 92% | -$7,162 NOT cap gain +$24,958 |
| budget: banked $2,189 debit $1,102 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,087 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $678/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,209/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 89% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $639/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,178 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 63.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 36.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-17,743 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $30.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-33.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,189 | $-29,634 | +$2,486 | +$1,826 |
| +2.5% | $31.77 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,337 | $-29,817 | +$2,303 | +$974 |
| +5% | $32.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $484 | $-29,274 | +$2,846 | +$121 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-12,111 | $-21,259 | +$10,861 | -$12,474 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,458 cycle +$2,298 [+$1,346…+$1,840] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$19,582 NOT cap gain +$12,538 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.52/sh | +$786 cycle +$1,626 [+$380…+$993] · 95% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$12,880 NOT cap gain +$19,240 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$286 cycle +$1,126 [-$230…+$482] · 55% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$11,580 NOT cap gain +$20,540 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$61 cycle +$901 [-$416…+$236] · 40% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$18,105 NOT cap gain +$14,015 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.39/sh | -$585 cycle +$255 [-$1,287…-$469] · 9% credit | 81% surv 79% | -$6,949 NOT cap gain +$25,171 |
| budget: banked $840 debit $585 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$255 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,385/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -61% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-4,684/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,660 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 64.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 36.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-24,203 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-37.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $840 | $-21,040 | +$11,080 | +$345 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (1.0σ) | $-547 | $-20,763 | +$11,357 | -$1,042 |
| +5% | $38.85 (1.2σ) | $-1,935 | $-20,485 | +$11,635 | -$2,430 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-9,660 | $-18,940 | +$13,180 | -$10,155 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,589 cycle +$2,864 [+$1,369…+$1,939] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$20,883 NOT cap gain +$11,237 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.47/sh | +$796 cycle +$2,071 [+$273…+$964] · 92% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$14,301 NOT cap gain +$17,819 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$246 cycle +$1,521 [-$403…+$356] · 41% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$13,051 NOT cap gain +$19,069 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$41 cycle +$1,316 [-$554…+$136] · 31% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$19,556 NOT cap gain +$12,564 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.73/sh | -$1,244 cycle +$31 [-$2,347…-$1,316] · 1% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$6,920 NOT cap gain +$25,200 |
| budget: banked $1,275 debit $1,244 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,685/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,781/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -41% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,184/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,791 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 77.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 44.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-27,328 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-36.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,275 | $-22,471 | +$9,649 | +$714 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-255 | $-22,381 | +$9,739 | -$816 |
| +5% | $37.80 (1.0σ) | $-1,785 | $-22,291 | +$9,829 | -$2,346 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-12,325 | $-21,671 | +$10,449 | -$12,886 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.83/sh | +$1,569 cycle +$4,115 [+$1,245…+$1,523] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$25,098 NOT cap gain +$7,022 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.57/sh | +$1,088 cycle +$3,634 [+$679…+$936] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$24,504 NOT cap gain +$7,616 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$814 cycle +$3,360 [+$106…+$523] · 83% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$19,378 NOT cap gain +$12,742 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$29 cycle +$2,575 [-$928…-$374] · 11% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$17,463 NOT cap gain +$14,657 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,879 cycle +$667 [-$3,572…-$2,550] | 90% surv 90% | -$4,330 NOT cap gain +$27,790 |
| budget: banked $2,546 debit $1,879 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$667 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,594/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,548/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +17% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,450/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,287 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 100.9% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 57.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-30,647 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-34.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $34.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,546 | $-26,666 | +$5,454 | +$1,919 |
| +2.5% | $33.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $979 | $-26,749 | +$5,371 | +$352 |
| +5% | $34.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-589 | $-26,831 | +$5,289 | -$1,216 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-18,354 | $-27,766 | +$4,354 | -$18,981 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.56/sh | +$3,125 cycle +$3,225 | 66% surv 56% | +$6,380 SAFE cap gain +$38,500 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$472 cycle +$572 | 71% surv 65% | +$10,202 SAFE cap gain +$42,322 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$489 cycle +$589 | 77% surv 73% | +$19,218 SAFE cap gain +$51,338 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,789/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$566 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 1.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 1.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,270 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $50.49 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $51.00 (3.1σ) | $100 | $3,255 | +$35,375 | +$13,440 |
| +2.5% | $52.27 (3.3σ) | $-2,450 | $3,000 | +$35,120 | +$13,440 |
| +5% | $53.55 (3.5σ) | $-5,000 | $2,745 | +$34,865 | +$13,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.52/sh | +$3,033 cycle +$3,133 | 66% surv 56% | +$4,488 SAFE cap gain +$36,608 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$407 cycle +$507 | 71% surv 65% | +$8,336 SAFE cap gain +$40,456 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$379 cycle +$479 | 77% surv 73% | +$17,308 SAFE cap gain +$49,428 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,789/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,566 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 8.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 4.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,190 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (2.9σ) | $100 | $1,455 | +$33,575 | +$11,440 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (3.1σ) | $-2,400 | $1,205 | +$33,325 | +$11,440 |
| +5% | $52.50 (3.3σ) | $-4,900 | $955 | +$33,075 | +$11,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.47/sh | +$2,942 cycle +$3,102 [+$3,331…+$4,633] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | +$2,656 SAFE cap gain +$34,776 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$342 cycle +$502 [+$239…+$1,786] · 86% credit | 71% surv 65% | +$6,531 SAFE cap gain +$38,651 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$271 cycle +$431 [+$74…+$1,998] · 76% credit | 77% surv 73% | +$15,461 SAFE cap gain +$47,581 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,564/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,506 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 14.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 8.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,170 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.00 (2.8σ) | $160 | $-285 | +$31,835 | +$9,500 |
| +2.5% | $50.22 (2.9σ) | $-2,290 | $-530 | +$31,590 | +$9,500 |
| +5% | $51.45 (3.1σ) | $-4,740 | $-775 | +$31,345 | +$9,500 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.43/sh | +$2,852 cycle +$2,952 [+$3,587…+$4,257] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | +$706 SAFE cap gain +$32,826 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$279 cycle +$379 [+$333…+$1,632] · 87% credit | 72% surv 65% | +$4,608 SAFE cap gain +$36,728 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$167 cycle +$267 [+$178…+$1,771] · 82% credit | 78% surv 74% | +$13,496 SAFE cap gain +$45,616 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,789/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,566 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 20.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 11.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,370 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (2.6σ) | $100 | $-2,145 | +$29,975 | +$7,440 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (2.8σ) | $-2,300 | $-2,385 | +$29,735 | +$7,440 |
| +5% | $50.40 (3.0σ) | $-4,700 | $-2,625 | +$29,495 | +$7,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.38/sh | +$2,763 cycle +$2,863 [+$3,300…+$4,111] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$1,182 NOT cap gain +$30,938 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$217 cycle +$317 [+$214…+$1,342] · 84% credit | 72% surv 66% | +$2,746 SAFE cap gain +$34,866 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$65 cycle +$165 [+$55…+$1,419] · 78% credit | 78% surv 74% | +$11,594 SAFE cap gain +$43,714 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,789/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,566 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 26.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 15.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,310 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.4σ) | $100 | $-3,945 | +$28,175 | +$5,440 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (2.6σ) | $-2,250 | $-4,180 | +$27,940 | +$5,440 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.8σ) | $-4,600 | $-4,415 | +$27,705 | +$5,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.34/sh | +$2,676 cycle +$2,796 [+$2,995…+$3,981] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$3,050 NOT cap gain +$29,070 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$156 cycle +$276 [-$36…+$1,158] · 73% credit | 72% surv 66% | +$905 SAFE cap gain +$33,025 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$18 cycle +$138 [-$309…+$1,311] · 64% credit | 75% surv 71% | +$6,168 SAFE cap gain +$38,288 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$34 cycle +$86 [-$361…+$1,180] · 62% credit | 78% surv 74% | +$9,715 SAFE cap gain +$41,835 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $34 (28% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,834/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,714/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,546 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 33.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 18.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,220 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (2.3σ) | $120 | $-5,725 | +$26,395 | +$3,460 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.5σ) | $-2,180 | $-5,955 | +$26,165 | +$3,460 |
| +5% | $48.30 (2.6σ) | $-4,480 | $-6,185 | +$25,935 | +$3,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.29/sh | +$2,589 cycle +$2,709 [+$2,921…+$3,860] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$4,936 NOT cap gain +$27,184 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$546 cycle +$666 [+$276…+$1,828] · 83% credit | 74% surv 69% | +$3,095 SAFE cap gain +$35,215 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$97 cycle +$217 [-$124…+$1,136] · 73% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$954 NOT cap gain +$31,166 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$52 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$61 cycle +$59 [-$426…+$1,198] · 60% credit | 76% surv 72% | +$4,288 SAFE cap gain +$36,408 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $61 (51% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,546/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,714/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,546 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 39.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 22.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,260 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (2.1σ) | $120 | $-7,525 | +$24,595 | +$1,460 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.3σ) | $-2,130 | $-7,750 | +$24,370 | +$1,460 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.5σ) | $-4,380 | $-7,975 | +$24,145 | +$1,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.25/sh | +$2,504 cycle +$2,684 [+$2,778…+$3,720] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$6,761 NOT cap gain +$25,359 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$457 cycle +$637 [+$124…+$1,586] · 80% credit | 74% surv 70% | +$1,266 SAFE cap gain +$33,386 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$38 cycle +$218 [-$240…+$873] · 62% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$2,752 NOT cap gain +$29,368 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.07/sh | -$138 cycle +$42 [-$555…+$933] · 54% credit | 76% surv 72% | +$2,471 SAFE cap gain +$34,591 |
| budget: banked $180 debit $138 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,177/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $675/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,489/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,486 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 45.3% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 25.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,430 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $180 | $-9,265 | +$22,855 | -$480 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (2.1σ) | $-2,020 | $-9,485 | +$22,635 | -$480 |
| +5% | $46.20 (2.3σ) | $-4,220 | $-9,705 | +$22,415 | -$480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.17/sh | +$2,338 cycle +$2,738 [+$2,389…+$3,467] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$10,307 NOT cap gain +$21,813 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$285 cycle +$685 [-$267…+$1,281] · 64% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$2,285 NOT cap gain +$29,835 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$22 cycle +$422 [-$433…+$837] · 54% credit | 70% surv 64% | -$7,949 NOT cap gain +$24,171 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.20/sh | -$399 cycle +$1 [-$1,021…+$481] · 36% credit | 79% surv 76% | +$2,430 SAFE cap gain +$34,550 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $399 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,271/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -82% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-6,664/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,266 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 57.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 32.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,180 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.00 (1.7σ) | $400 | $-12,645 | +$19,475 | -$260 |
| +2.5% | $43.05 (1.8σ) | $-1,700 | $-12,855 | +$19,265 | -$2,360 |
| +5% | $44.10 (2.0σ) | $-3,800 | $-13,065 | +$19,055 | -$4,260 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.13/sh | +$2,257 cycle +$2,737 [+$2,304…+$3,291] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$12,109 NOT cap gain +$20,011 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$220 cycle +$700 [-$167…+$903] · 64% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$11,271 NOT cap gain +$20,849 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$203 cycle +$683 [-$313…+$963] · 62% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$4,088 NOT cap gain +$28,032 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$355 cycle +$125 [-$974…+$374] · 35% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$2,846 NOT cap gain +$29,274 |
| budget: banked $480 debit $355 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,113/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-6,364/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,186 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 63.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 36.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,180 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.5σ) | $480 | $-14,365 | +$17,755 | -$180 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.7σ) | $-1,570 | $-14,570 | +$17,550 | -$2,230 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.8σ) | $-3,620 | $-14,775 | +$17,345 | -$4,280 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-5,520 | $-14,965 | +$17,155 | -$6,180 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.09/sh | +$2,177 cycle +$2,817 [+$2,191…+$2,825] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$13,829 NOT cap gain +$18,291 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$672 cycle +$1,312 [+$174…+$1,313] · 83% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$6,159 NOT cap gain +$25,961 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$184 cycle +$824 [-$301…+$752] · 56% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$12,947 NOT cap gain +$19,173 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$122 cycle +$762 [-$495…+$756] · 51% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$5,809 NOT cap gain +$26,311 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.28/sh | -$562 cycle +$78 [-$1,273…-$13] · 25% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$1,093 NOT cap gain +$31,027 |
| budget: banked $640 debit $562 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,540/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,764/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,026 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 68.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 39.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,140 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (1.3σ) | $640 | $-16,005 | +$16,115 | -$20 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.5σ) | $-1,360 | $-16,205 | +$15,915 | -$2,020 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.7σ) | $-3,360 | $-16,405 | +$15,715 | -$4,020 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-7,360 | $-16,805 | +$15,315 | -$8,020 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.07/sh | +$2,137 cycle +$2,417 [+$2,059…+$2,925] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$15,128 NOT cap gain +$16,992 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$622 cycle +$902 [+$101…+$1,237] · 80% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$7,469 NOT cap gain +$24,651 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$167 cycle +$447 [-$353…+$696] · 51% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$14,224 NOT cap gain +$17,896 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$83 cycle +$363 [-$574…+$657] · 44% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$7,108 NOT cap gain +$25,012 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,114/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,386 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 73.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 41.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,570 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.87 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.87 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.50 (1.3σ) | $280 | $-17,265 | +$14,855 | -$380 |
| +2.5% | $40.49 (1.4σ) | $-1,695 | $-17,463 | +$14,657 | -$2,355 |
| +5% | $41.48 (1.6σ) | $-3,670 | $-17,660 | +$14,460 | -$4,330 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-8,720 | $-18,165 | +$13,955 | -$9,380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.05/sh | +$2,098 cycle +$2,378 [+$1,961…+$2,672] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$16,068 NOT cap gain +$16,052 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$572 cycle +$852 [-$38…+$1,137] · 73% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$8,418 NOT cap gain +$23,702 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$149 cycle +$429 [-$456…+$633] · 50% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$15,142 NOT cap gain +$16,978 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$44 cycle +$324 [-$737…+$542] · 42% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$8,047 NOT cap gain +$24,073 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-7,114/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,386 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 76.2% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 43.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,630 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (1.2σ) | $280 | $-18,165 | +$13,955 | -$380 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (1.3σ) | $-1,670 | $-18,360 | +$13,760 | -$2,330 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.5σ) | $-3,620 | $-18,555 | +$13,565 | -$4,280 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-9,720 | $-19,165 | +$12,955 | -$10,380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.03/sh | +$2,059 cycle +$2,819 [+$1,922…+$2,621] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$16,526 NOT cap gain +$15,594 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$524 cycle +$1,284 [-$65…+$1,025] · 71% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$8,887 NOT cap gain +$23,233 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$132 cycle +$892 [-$432…+$550] · 47% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$15,579 NOT cap gain +$16,541 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$6 cycle +$766 [-$721…+$424] · 37% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$8,505 NOT cap gain +$23,615 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$675 cycle +$85 [-$1,495…-$339] · 18% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$3,786 NOT cap gain +$28,334 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $675 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,016/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,850/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,314/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,906 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 77.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 44.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,440 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.04 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.04 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.50 (1.1σ) | $760 | $-18,585 | +$13,535 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $39.46 (1.3σ) | $-1,165 | $-18,778 | +$13,342 | -$1,825 |
| +5% | $40.43 (1.4σ) | $-3,090 | $-18,970 | +$13,150 | -$3,750 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-10,240 | $-19,685 | +$12,435 | -$10,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.99/sh | +$1,982 cycle +$2,522 [+$1,841…+$2,514] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$18,623 NOT cap gain +$13,497 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$428 cycle +$968 [-$203…+$710] · 60% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$11,003 NOT cap gain +$21,117 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$98 cycle +$638 [-$490…+$338] · 42% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$17,633 NOT cap gain +$14,487 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.25/sh | -$497 cycle +$43 [-$1,366…-$290] · 19% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$10,128 NOT cap gain +$21,992 |
| budget: banked $540 debit $497 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,093/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -75% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-6,139/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,126 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 84.8% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 48.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,640 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $540 | $-20,605 | +$11,515 | -$120 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (1.1σ) | $-1,335 | $-20,793 | +$11,327 | -$1,995 |
| +5% | $39.38 (1.2σ) | $-3,210 | $-20,980 | +$11,140 | -$3,870 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-12,460 | $-21,905 | +$10,215 | -$13,120 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.95/sh | +$1,906 cycle +$2,686 [+$1,645…+$2,300] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$20,259 NOT cap gain +$11,861 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.50/sh | +$992 cycle +$1,772 [+$398…+$1,185] · 95% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$13,799 NOT cap gain +$18,321 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$334 cycle +$1,114 [-$388…+$453] · 46% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$12,656 NOT cap gain +$19,464 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$65 cycle +$845 [-$608…+$164] · 32% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$19,226 NOT cap gain +$12,894 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$639 cycle +$141 [-$1,610…-$616] · 12% credit | 78% surv 75% | -$10,930 NOT cap gain +$21,190 |
| budget: banked $780 debit $639 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$141 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,641/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,925/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-5,239/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,886 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 90.3% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 51.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,500 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-37.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $780 | $-22,165 | +$9,955 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,045 | $-22,348 | +$9,772 | -$1,705 |
| +5% | $38.33 (1.1σ) | $-2,870 | $-22,530 | +$9,590 | -$3,530 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-14,220 | $-23,665 | +$8,455 | -$14,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.92/sh | +$1,832 cycle +$3,432 [+$1,567…+$2,064] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$21,314 NOT cap gain +$10,806 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.44/sh | +$881 cycle +$2,481 [+$242…+$905] · 89% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$14,889 NOT cap gain +$17,231 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$244 cycle +$1,844 [-$550…+$190] · 33% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$13,727 NOT cap gain +$18,393 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$32 cycle +$1,632 [-$693…-$21] · 24% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$20,238 NOT cap gain +$11,882 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.74/sh | -$1,476 cycle +$124 [-$2,794…-$1,759] · 1% credit | 83% surv 82% | -$7,347 NOT cap gain +$24,773 |
| budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,476 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,033/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -27% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,164/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,066 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 94.0% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 53.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,400 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-36.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,600 | $-23,145 | +$8,975 | +$940 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-175 | $-23,323 | +$8,797 | -$835 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,950 | $-23,500 | +$8,620 | -$2,610 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-15,400 | $-24,845 | +$7,275 | -$16,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,795 cycle +$3,555 [+$1,526…+$2,008] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$22,090 NOT cap gain +$10,030 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.41/sh | +$827 cycle +$2,587 [+$154…+$798] · 86% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$15,684 NOT cap gain +$16,436 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$200 cycle +$1,960 [-$638…+$93] · 28% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$14,511 NOT cap gain +$17,609 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$17 cycle +$1,777 [-$744…-$81] · 22% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$20,994 NOT cap gain +$11,126 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.87/sh | -$1,739 cycle +$21 [-$3,193…-$2,084] | 87% surv 86% | -$4,750 NOT cap gain +$27,370 |
| budget: banked $1,760 debit $1,739 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,489/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -19% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 72% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,564/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,906 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 96.6% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 55.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,230 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,760 | $-23,885 | +$8,235 | +$1,100 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $10 | $-24,060 | +$8,060 | -$650 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,740 | $-24,235 | +$7,885 | -$2,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-16,240 | $-25,685 | +$6,435 | -$16,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.88/sh | +$1,759 cycle +$3,259 [+$1,478…+$1,957] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$23,287 NOT cap gain +$8,833 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.39/sh | +$774 cycle +$2,274 [+$88…+$692] · 83% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$16,897 NOT cap gain +$15,223 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$156 cycle +$1,656 [-$692…-$34] · 24% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$15,714 NOT cap gain +$16,406 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$1 cycle +$1,501 [-$764…-$171] · 19% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$22,170 NOT cap gain +$9,950 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.75/sh | -$1,498 cycle +$2 [-$2,863…-$1,915] · 1% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$9,269 NOT cap gain +$22,851 |
| budget: banked $1,500 debit $1,498 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,786/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 61% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,539/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,166 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 100.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 57.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,620 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-35.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,500 | $-25,045 | +$7,075 | +$840 |
| +2.5% | $35.36 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-225 | $-25,218 | +$6,902 | -$885 |
| +5% | $36.23 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,950 | $-25,390 | +$6,730 | -$2,610 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-17,500 | $-26,945 | +$5,175 | -$18,160 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,722 cycle +$3,902 [+$1,376…+$1,836] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$23,543 NOT cap gain +$8,577 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.61/sh | +$1,211 cycle +$3,391 [+$793…+$1,201] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$22,980 NOT cap gain +$9,140 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$721 cycle +$2,901 [-$25…+$575] · 73% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$17,170 NOT cap gain +$14,950 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$114 cycle +$2,294 [-$818…-$125] · 21% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$15,977 NOT cap gain +$16,143 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,978 cycle +$202 [-$3,641…-$2,488] | 90% surv 89% | -$2,769 NOT cap gain +$29,351 |
| budget: banked $2,180 debit $1,978 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$202 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,882/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,175/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 89% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,486 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 101.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 58.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,390 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.66 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-35.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,180 | $-25,265 | +$6,855 | +$1,520 |
| +2.5% | $34.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $480 | $-25,435 | +$6,685 | -$180 |
| +5% | $35.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,220 | $-25,605 | +$6,515 | -$1,880 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-17,820 | $-27,265 | +$4,855 | -$18,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.84/sh | +$1,518 cycle +$3,696 [+$1,209…+$1,529] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$24,583 NOT cap gain +$7,537 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.59/sh | +$1,060 cycle +$3,238 [+$675…+$960] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$23,967 NOT cap gain +$8,153 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$602 cycle +$2,780 [-$105…+$359] · 64% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$18,125 NOT cap gain +$13,995 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$65 cycle +$2,243 [-$822…-$274] · 16% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$16,862 NOT cap gain +$15,258 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.12/sh | -$2,025 cycle +$153 [-$3,718…-$2,623] | 92% surv 92% | -$1,071 NOT cap gain +$31,049 |
| budget: banked $2,178 debit $2,025 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$153 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,193/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,167/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 89% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $136/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,922 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 93.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 53.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-29,034 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-34.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $34.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,178 | $-26,101 | +$6,019 | +$1,584 |
| +2.5% | $34.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $671 | $-26,101 | +$6,019 | +$77 |
| +5% | $35.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-837 | $-26,101 | +$6,019 | -$1,431 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-16,722 | $-26,101 | +$6,019 | -$17,316 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.79/sh | +$1,107 cycle +$3,389 [+$873…+$1,018] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$27,459 NOT cap gain +$4,661 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.54/sh | +$757 cycle +$3,039 [+$441…+$581] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$26,734 NOT cap gain +$5,386 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.38/sh | +$526 cycle +$2,808 [-$51…+$246] · 68% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$21,565 NOT cap gain +$10,555 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$362 cycle +$2,644 [-$263…+$61] · 33% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$20,828 NOT cap gain +$11,292 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,380 cycle +$902 [-$2,766…-$1,914] | 91% surv 90% | -$6,429 NOT cap gain +$25,691 |
| budget: banked $2,282 debit $1,380 (60% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$902 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $1,039/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,558/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 93% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $790/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,784 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 77.5% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 44.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-22,568 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $31.68 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $32-33.69 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.69 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $32.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,282 | $-28,565 | +$3,555 | +$1,820 |
| +2.5% | $32.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,162 | $-28,245 | +$3,875 | +$700 |
| +5% | $33.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $42 | $-27,925 | +$4,195 | -$420 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-14,518 | $-23,765 | +$8,355 | -$14,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.77/sh | +$1,160 cycle +$3,470 [+$912…+$993] · 100% credit | 65% surv 55% | -$28,311 NOT cap gain +$3,809 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.52/sh | +$787 cycle +$3,097 [+$431…+$577] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$27,609 NOT cap gain +$4,511 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$35 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.48/sh | +$714 cycle +$3,024 [+$104…+$378] · 84% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$23,182 NOT cap gain +$8,938 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$351 cycle +$2,661 [-$382…-$22] · 22% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$21,744 NOT cap gain +$10,376 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.98/sh | -$1,475 cycle +$835 [-$3,121…-$2,110] | 91% surv 91% | -$7,020 NOT cap gain +$25,100 |
| budget: banked $2,310 debit $1,475 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$835 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $1,045/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,662/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 94% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $829/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,440 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 85.7% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 49.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-24,390 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $31.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-33.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,310 | $-29,470 | +$2,650 | +$1,815 |
| +2.5% | $32.29 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,129 | $-29,234 | +$2,886 | +$634 |
| +5% | $33.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-53 | $-28,998 | +$3,122 | -$548 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-16,440 | $-25,720 | +$6,400 | -$16,935 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$832 cycle +$3,021 | 65% surv 55% | -$28,802 NOT cap gain +$3,318 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.39/sh | +$432 cycle +$2,621 | 68% surv 60% | -$28,128 NOT cap gain +$3,992 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$144 cycle +$2,333 | 77% surv 73% | -$22,115 NOT cap gain +$10,005 |
| SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.00/sh | -$1,102 cycle +$1,087 | 92% surv 92% | -$7,162 NOT cap gain +$24,958 |
| budget: banked $2,189 debit $1,102 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,087 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $678/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,209/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,164/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 89% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $639/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,178 |
| … as % of IC ($32,000) | 63.1% |
| … as % of ML ($56,000) | 36.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-17,743 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $30.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-33.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,189 | $-29,634 | +$2,486 | +$1,826 |
| +2.5% | $31.77 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,337 | $-29,817 | +$2,303 | +$974 |
| +5% | $32.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $484 | $-29,274 | +$2,846 | +$121 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $-12,111 | $-21,259 | +$10,861 | -$12,474 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,458 cycle +$2,298 [+$1,346…+$1,840] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$47,702 NOT cap gain +$12,398 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.52/sh | +$786 cycle +$1,626 [+$380…+$993] · 95% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$41,000 NOT cap gain +$19,100 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$286 cycle +$1,126 [-$230…+$482] · 55% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$39,700 NOT cap gain +$20,400 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$61 cycle +$901 [-$416…+$236] · 40% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$46,225 NOT cap gain +$13,875 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.39/sh | -$585 cycle +$255 [-$1,287…-$469] · 9% credit | 81% surv 79% | -$34,271 NOT cap gain +$25,829 |
| budget: banked $840 debit $585 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$255 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,385/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $585/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,456 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 624.3% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 39.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-45,187 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-37.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $840 | $-49,160 | +$10,940 | +$765 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (1.0σ) | $-547 | $-48,883 | +$11,217 | -$622 |
| +5% | $38.85 (1.2σ) | $-1,935 | $-48,605 | +$11,495 | -$2,010 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-28,410 | $-44,060 | +$16,040 | -$26,235 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,589 cycle +$2,864 [+$1,369…+$1,939] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$48,947 NOT cap gain +$11,153 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.47/sh | +$796 cycle +$2,071 [+$273…+$964] · 92% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$42,365 NOT cap gain +$17,735 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$246 cycle +$1,521 [-$403…+$356] · 41% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$41,115 NOT cap gain +$18,985 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$41 cycle +$1,316 [-$554…+$136] · 31% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$47,620 NOT cap gain +$12,480 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.73/sh | -$1,244 cycle +$31 [-$2,347…-$1,316] · 1% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$34,505 NOT cap gain +$25,595 |
| budget: banked $1,275 debit $1,244 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,685/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,781/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,196/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,828 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 730.5% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 46.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-51,110 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-36.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,275 | $-50,535 | +$9,565 | +$1,190 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-255 | $-50,445 | +$9,655 | -$340 |
| +5% | $37.80 (1.0σ) | $-1,785 | $-50,355 | +$9,745 | -$1,870 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-33,575 | $-48,935 | +$11,165 | -$31,110 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.83/sh | +$1,569 cycle +$4,115 [+$1,245…+$1,523] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$53,106 NOT cap gain +$6,994 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.57/sh | +$1,088 cycle +$3,634 [+$679…+$936] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$52,512 NOT cap gain +$7,588 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$814 cycle +$3,360 [+$106…+$523] · 83% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$47,386 NOT cap gain +$12,714 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$29 cycle +$2,575 [-$928…-$374] · 11% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$45,471 NOT cap gain +$14,629 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,879 cycle +$667 [-$3,572…-$2,550] | 90% surv 90% | -$32,078 NOT cap gain +$28,022 |
| budget: banked $2,546 debit $1,879 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$667 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,594/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,548/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,942/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$53,563 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 892.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 57.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.8 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-57,228 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-34.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $34.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,546 | $-54,674 | +$5,426 | +$2,451 |
| +2.5% | $33.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $979 | $-54,757 | +$5,343 | +$884 |
| +5% | $34.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-589 | $-54,839 | +$5,261 | -$684 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-42,104 | $-57,174 | +$2,926 | -$39,349 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.56/sh | +$3,125 cycle +$3,225 | 66% surv 56% | -$21,600 NOT cap gain +$38,500 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$472 cycle +$572 | 71% surv 65% | -$17,778 NOT cap gain +$42,322 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$489 cycle +$589 | 77% surv 73% | -$8,762 NOT cap gain +$51,338 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,240/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,962 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 382.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 24.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $50.49 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $51.00 (3.1σ) | $100 | $-24,725 | +$35,375 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $52.27 (3.3σ) | $-2,450 | $-24,980 | +$35,120 | -$2,550 |
| +5% | $53.55 (3.5σ) | $-5,000 | $-25,235 | +$34,865 | -$5,100 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-10,900 | $-25,825 | +$34,275 | -$8,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.52/sh | +$3,033 cycle +$3,133 | 66% surv 56% | -$23,492 NOT cap gain +$36,608 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$407 cycle +$507 | 71% surv 65% | -$19,644 NOT cap gain +$40,456 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$379 cycle +$479 | 77% surv 73% | -$10,672 NOT cap gain +$49,428 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,240/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,962 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 416.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 26.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,170 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (2.9σ) | $100 | $-26,525 | +$33,575 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (3.1σ) | $-2,400 | $-26,775 | +$33,325 | -$2,500 |
| +5% | $52.50 (3.3σ) | $-4,900 | $-27,025 | +$33,075 | -$5,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-12,900 | $-27,825 | +$32,275 | -$10,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.47/sh | +$2,942 cycle +$3,102 [+$3,331…+$4,633] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$25,324 NOT cap gain +$34,776 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$342 cycle +$502 [+$239…+$1,786] · 86% credit | 71% surv 65% | -$21,449 NOT cap gain +$38,651 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$271 cycle +$431 [+$74…+$1,998] · 76% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$12,519 NOT cap gain +$47,581 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,015/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,902 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 448.4% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 28.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,150 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.00 (2.8σ) | $160 | $-28,265 | +$31,835 | +$60 |
| +2.5% | $50.22 (2.9σ) | $-2,290 | $-28,510 | +$31,590 | -$2,390 |
| +5% | $51.45 (3.1σ) | $-4,740 | $-28,755 | +$31,345 | -$4,840 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-14,840 | $-29,765 | +$30,335 | -$11,940 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.43/sh | +$2,852 cycle +$2,952 [+$3,587…+$4,257] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$27,274 NOT cap gain +$32,826 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$279 cycle +$379 [+$333…+$1,632] · 87% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$23,372 NOT cap gain +$36,728 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$167 cycle +$267 [+$178…+$1,771] · 82% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$14,484 NOT cap gain +$45,616 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,240/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,962 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 482.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 30.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,350 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (2.6σ) | $100 | $-30,125 | +$29,975 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (2.8σ) | $-2,300 | $-30,365 | +$29,735 | -$2,400 |
| +5% | $50.40 (3.0σ) | $-4,700 | $-30,605 | +$29,495 | -$4,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-16,900 | $-31,825 | +$28,275 | -$14,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.38/sh | +$2,763 cycle +$2,863 [+$3,300…+$4,111] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$29,162 NOT cap gain +$30,938 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$217 cycle +$317 [+$214…+$1,342] · 84% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$25,234 NOT cap gain +$34,866 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$65 cycle +$165 [+$55…+$1,419] · 78% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$16,386 NOT cap gain +$43,714 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,240/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,962 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 516.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 32.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,290 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.4σ) | $100 | $-31,925 | +$28,175 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (2.6σ) | $-2,250 | $-32,160 | +$27,940 | -$2,350 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.8σ) | $-4,600 | $-32,395 | +$27,705 | -$4,700 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-18,900 | $-33,825 | +$26,275 | -$16,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.34/sh | +$2,676 cycle +$2,796 [+$2,995…+$3,981] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$31,030 NOT cap gain +$29,070 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$156 cycle +$276 [-$36…+$1,158] · 73% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$27,075 NOT cap gain +$33,025 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$18 cycle +$138 [-$309…+$1,311] · 64% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$21,812 NOT cap gain +$38,288 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$34 cycle +$86 [-$361…+$1,180] · 62% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$18,265 NOT cap gain +$41,835 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $34 (28% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,834/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,165/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,942 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 549.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 35.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (2.3σ) | $120 | $-33,705 | +$26,395 | +$20 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.5σ) | $-2,180 | $-33,935 | +$26,165 | -$2,280 |
| +5% | $48.30 (2.6σ) | $-4,480 | $-34,165 | +$25,935 | -$4,580 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-20,880 | $-35,805 | +$24,295 | -$17,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.29/sh | +$2,589 cycle +$2,709 [+$2,921…+$3,860] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$32,916 NOT cap gain +$27,184 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$546 cycle +$666 [+$276…+$1,828] · 83% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$24,885 NOT cap gain +$35,215 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$97 cycle +$217 [-$124…+$1,136] · 73% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$28,934 NOT cap gain +$31,166 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$52 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$61 cycle +$59 [-$426…+$1,198] · 60% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$23,692 NOT cap gain +$36,408 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $61 (51% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,546/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,165/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,942 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 582.4% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 37.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,240 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (2.1σ) | $120 | $-35,505 | +$24,595 | +$20 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.3σ) | $-2,130 | $-35,730 | +$24,370 | -$2,230 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.5σ) | $-4,380 | $-35,955 | +$24,145 | -$4,480 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-22,880 | $-37,805 | +$22,295 | -$19,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.25/sh | +$2,504 cycle +$2,684 [+$2,778…+$3,720] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$34,741 NOT cap gain +$25,359 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$457 cycle +$637 [+$124…+$1,586] · 80% credit | 74% surv 70% | -$26,714 NOT cap gain +$33,386 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$38 cycle +$218 [-$240…+$873] · 62% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$30,732 NOT cap gain +$29,368 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.07/sh | -$138 cycle +$42 [-$555…+$933] · 54% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$25,509 NOT cap gain +$34,591 |
| budget: banked $180 debit $138 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,177/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $675/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -85% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,940/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$36,882 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 614.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 39.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,410 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $180 | $-37,245 | +$22,855 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (2.1σ) | $-2,020 | $-37,465 | +$22,635 | -$2,120 |
| +5% | $46.20 (2.3σ) | $-4,220 | $-37,685 | +$22,415 | -$4,320 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-24,820 | $-39,745 | +$20,355 | -$21,920 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.17/sh | +$2,338 cycle +$2,738 [+$2,389…+$3,467] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$38,287 NOT cap gain +$21,813 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$285 cycle +$685 [-$267…+$1,281] · 64% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$30,265 NOT cap gain +$29,835 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$22 cycle +$422 [-$433…+$837] · 54% credit | 70% surv 64% | -$35,929 NOT cap gain +$24,171 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.20/sh | -$399 cycle +$1 [-$1,021…+$481] · 36% credit | 79% surv 76% | -$25,550 NOT cap gain +$34,550 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $399 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,271/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -67% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,115/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,662 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 677.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 43.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,160 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.00 (1.7σ) | $400 | $-40,625 | +$19,475 | +$300 |
| +2.5% | $43.05 (1.8σ) | $-1,700 | $-40,835 | +$19,265 | -$1,800 |
| +5% | $44.10 (2.0σ) | $-3,800 | $-41,045 | +$19,055 | -$3,900 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-28,600 | $-43,525 | +$16,575 | -$25,700 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.13/sh | +$2,257 cycle +$2,737 [+$2,304…+$3,291] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$40,089 NOT cap gain +$20,011 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$220 cycle +$700 [-$167…+$903] · 64% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$39,251 NOT cap gain +$20,849 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$203 cycle +$683 [-$313…+$963] · 62% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$32,068 NOT cap gain +$28,032 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$355 cycle +$125 [-$974…+$374] · 35% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$30,826 NOT cap gain +$29,274 |
| budget: banked $480 debit $355 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,113/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -61% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-815/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,582 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 709.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 45.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,160 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.5σ) | $480 | $-42,345 | +$17,755 | +$380 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.7σ) | $-1,570 | $-42,550 | +$17,550 | -$1,670 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.8σ) | $-3,620 | $-42,755 | +$17,345 | -$3,720 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-30,520 | $-45,445 | +$14,655 | -$27,620 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.09/sh | +$2,177 cycle +$2,817 [+$2,191…+$2,825] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$41,809 NOT cap gain +$18,291 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$672 cycle +$1,312 [+$174…+$1,313] · 83% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$34,139 NOT cap gain +$25,961 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$184 cycle +$824 [-$301…+$752] · 56% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$40,927 NOT cap gain +$19,173 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$122 cycle +$762 [-$495…+$756] · 51% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$33,789 NOT cap gain +$26,311 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.28/sh | -$562 cycle +$78 [-$1,273…-$13] · 25% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$29,073 NOT cap gain +$31,027 |
| budget: banked $640 debit $562 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,540/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -48% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-215/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,422 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 740.4% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 47.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,120 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (1.3σ) | $640 | $-43,985 | +$16,115 | +$540 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.5σ) | $-1,360 | $-44,185 | +$15,915 | -$1,460 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.7σ) | $-3,360 | $-44,385 | +$15,715 | -$3,460 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-32,360 | $-47,285 | +$12,815 | -$29,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.07/sh | +$2,137 cycle +$2,417 [+$2,059…+$2,925] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$43,108 NOT cap gain +$16,992 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$622 cycle +$902 [+$101…+$1,237] · 80% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$35,449 NOT cap gain +$24,651 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$167 cycle +$447 [-$353…+$696] · 51% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$42,204 NOT cap gain +$17,896 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$83 cycle +$363 [-$574…+$657] · 44% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$35,088 NOT cap gain +$25,012 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,565/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,782 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 763.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 48.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,550 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.87 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.87 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.50 (1.3σ) | $280 | $-45,245 | +$14,855 | +$180 |
| +2.5% | $40.49 (1.4σ) | $-1,695 | $-45,443 | +$14,657 | -$1,795 |
| +5% | $41.48 (1.6σ) | $-3,670 | $-45,640 | +$14,460 | -$3,770 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-33,720 | $-48,645 | +$11,455 | -$30,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.05/sh | +$2,098 cycle +$2,378 [+$1,961…+$2,672] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$44,048 NOT cap gain +$16,052 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$572 cycle +$852 [-$38…+$1,137] · 73% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$36,398 NOT cap gain +$23,702 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$149 cycle +$429 [-$456…+$633] · 50% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$43,122 NOT cap gain +$16,978 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$44 cycle +$324 [-$737…+$542] · 42% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$36,027 NOT cap gain +$24,073 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,565/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,782 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 779.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 49.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,610 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (1.2σ) | $280 | $-46,145 | +$13,955 | +$180 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (1.3σ) | $-1,670 | $-46,340 | +$13,760 | -$1,770 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.5σ) | $-3,620 | $-46,535 | +$13,565 | -$3,720 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-34,720 | $-49,645 | +$10,455 | -$31,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.03/sh | +$2,059 cycle +$2,819 [+$1,922…+$2,621] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$44,506 NOT cap gain +$15,594 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$524 cycle +$1,284 [-$65…+$1,025] · 71% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$36,867 NOT cap gain +$23,233 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$132 cycle +$892 [-$432…+$550] · 47% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$43,559 NOT cap gain +$16,541 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$6 cycle +$766 [-$721…+$424] · 37% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$36,485 NOT cap gain +$23,615 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$675 cycle +$85 [-$1,495…-$339] · 18% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$31,766 NOT cap gain +$28,334 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $675 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,016/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,850/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -38% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $235/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,302 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 788.4% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 50.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,420 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.04 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.04 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.50 (1.1σ) | $760 | $-46,565 | +$13,535 | +$660 |
| +2.5% | $39.46 (1.3σ) | $-1,165 | $-46,758 | +$13,342 | -$1,265 |
| +5% | $40.43 (1.4σ) | $-3,090 | $-46,950 | +$13,150 | -$3,190 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-35,240 | $-50,165 | +$9,935 | -$32,340 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.99/sh | +$1,982 cycle +$2,522 [+$1,841…+$2,514] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$46,603 NOT cap gain +$13,497 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$428 cycle +$968 [-$203…+$710] · 60% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$38,983 NOT cap gain +$21,117 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$98 cycle +$638 [-$490…+$338] · 42% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$45,613 NOT cap gain +$14,487 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.25/sh | -$497 cycle +$43 [-$1,366…-$290] · 19% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$38,108 NOT cap gain +$21,992 |
| budget: banked $540 debit $497 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,093/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-590/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,522 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 825.4% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 52.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,620 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $540 | $-48,585 | +$11,515 | +$440 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (1.1σ) | $-1,335 | $-48,773 | +$11,327 | -$1,435 |
| +5% | $39.38 (1.2σ) | $-3,210 | $-48,960 | +$11,140 | -$3,310 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-37,460 | $-52,385 | +$7,715 | -$34,560 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.95/sh | +$1,906 cycle +$2,686 [+$1,645…+$2,300] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$48,239 NOT cap gain +$11,861 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.50/sh | +$992 cycle +$1,772 [+$398…+$1,185] · 95% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$41,779 NOT cap gain +$18,321 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$334 cycle +$1,114 [-$388…+$453] · 46% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$40,636 NOT cap gain +$19,464 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$65 cycle +$845 [-$608…+$164] · 32% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$47,206 NOT cap gain +$12,894 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$639 cycle +$141 [-$1,610…-$616] · 12% credit | 78% surv 75% | -$38,910 NOT cap gain +$21,190 |
| budget: banked $780 debit $639 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$141 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,641/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,925/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -36% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $310/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$51,282 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 854.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 54.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-60,480 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-37.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $780 | $-50,145 | +$9,955 | +$680 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,045 | $-50,328 | +$9,772 | -$1,145 |
| +5% | $38.33 (1.1σ) | $-2,870 | $-50,510 | +$9,590 | -$2,970 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-39,220 | $-54,145 | +$5,955 | -$36,320 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.92/sh | +$1,465 cycle +$2,745 [+$1,250…+$1,650] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$49,960 NOT cap gain +$10,140 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.44/sh | +$705 cycle +$1,985 [+$180…+$768] · 89% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$43,346 NOT cap gain +$16,754 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$195 cycle +$1,475 [-$453…+$185] · 33% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$42,056 NOT cap gain +$18,044 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$26 cycle +$1,306 [-$567…+$15] · 26% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$48,525 NOT cap gain +$11,575 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.74/sh | -$1,181 cycle +$99 [-$2,235…-$1,330] · 1% credit | 83% surv 82% | -$35,331 NOT cap gain +$24,769 |
| budget: banked $1,280 debit $1,181 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $2,426/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,225/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,969 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 699.5% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 44.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.6 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-48,304 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-36.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,280 | $-51,425 | +$8,675 | +$1,200 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-140 | $-51,248 | +$8,852 | -$220 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,560 | $-51,070 | +$9,030 | -$1,640 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-32,320 | $-47,825 | +$12,275 | -$30,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,257 cycle +$2,489 [+$1,068…+$1,412] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$51,107 NOT cap gain +$8,993 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.41/sh | +$579 cycle +$1,811 [+$107…+$574] · 85% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$44,410 NOT cap gain +$15,690 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$140 cycle +$1,372 [-$451…+$86] · 30% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$43,049 NOT cap gain +$17,051 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$12 cycle +$1,244 [-$526…-$38] · 22% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$49,477 NOT cap gain +$10,623 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.87/sh | -$1,217 cycle +$15 [-$2,251…-$1,433] | 87% surv 86% | -$32,706 NOT cap gain +$27,394 |
| budget: banked $1,232 debit $1,217 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $1,742/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,065/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,311 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 621.9% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 39.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-42,147 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,232 | $-52,363 | +$7,737 | +$1,162 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7 | $-52,013 | +$8,087 | -$63 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,218 | $-51,663 | +$8,437 | -$1,288 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-28,868 | $-44,663 | +$15,437 | -$26,838 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.88/sh | +$1,495 cycle +$2,770 [+$1,233…+$1,663] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$51,741 NOT cap gain +$8,359 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.39/sh | +$658 cycle +$1,933 [+$66…+$593] · 82% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$45,203 NOT cap gain +$14,897 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$133 cycle +$1,408 [-$603…-$5] · 25% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$43,928 NOT cap gain +$16,172 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$1 cycle +$1,276 [-$667…-$125] · 19% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$50,360 NOT cap gain +$9,740 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.75/sh | -$1,273 cycle +$2 [-$2,463…-$1,589] · 1% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$37,234 NOT cap gain +$22,866 |
| budget: banked $1,275 debit $1,273 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,368/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,781/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,196/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,378 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 773.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 49.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.0 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-51,510 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-35.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,275 | $-53,235 | +$6,865 | +$1,190 |
| +2.5% | $35.36 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-191 | $-53,149 | +$6,951 | -$276 |
| +5% | $36.23 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,658 | $-53,063 | +$7,037 | -$1,742 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-36,125 | $-51,485 | +$8,615 | -$33,660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,033 cycle +$2,341 [+$842…+$1,134] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$53,044 NOT cap gain +$7,056 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.61/sh | +$726 cycle +$2,034 [+$480…+$725] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$52,276 NOT cap gain +$7,824 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$433 cycle +$1,741 [+$10…+$361] · 76% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$46,270 NOT cap gain +$13,830 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$68 cycle +$1,376 [-$461…-$66] · 22% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$44,835 NOT cap gain +$15,265 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,187 cycle +$121 [-$2,117…-$1,452] | 90% surv 89% | -$30,789 NOT cap gain +$29,311 |
| budget: banked $1,308 debit $1,187 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$121 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,129/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,905/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,370/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,929 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 548.8% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 35.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-36,222 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.66 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-35.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,308 | $-54,077 | +$6,023 | +$1,248 |
| +2.5% | $34.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $288 | $-53,567 | +$6,533 | +$228 |
| +5% | $35.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-732 | $-53,057 | +$7,043 | -$792 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-25,692 | $-41,777 | +$18,323 | -$23,952 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.84/sh | +$928 cycle +$2,259 [+$739…+$940] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$54,022 NOT cap gain +$6,078 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.59/sh | +$648 cycle +$1,979 [+$414…+$617] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$53,227 NOT cap gain +$6,873 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$368 cycle +$1,699 [-$63…+$229] · 64% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$47,207 NOT cap gain +$12,893 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$39 cycle +$1,370 [-$500…-$153] · 16% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$45,735 NOT cap gain +$14,365 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.12/sh | -$1,237 cycle +$94 [-$2,274…-$1,607] | 92% surv 92% | -$28,112 NOT cap gain +$31,988 |
| budget: banked $1,331 debit $1,237 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$94 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $729/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,991/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,466/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,603 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 510.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 32.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-33,132 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-34.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $34.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,331 | $-54,949 | +$5,151 | +$1,276 |
| +2.5% | $34.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $410 | $-54,363 | +$5,737 | +$355 |
| +5% | $35.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-512 | $-53,777 | +$6,323 | -$567 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-23,969 | $-40,199 | +$19,901 | -$22,374 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.79/sh | +$632 cycle +$1,936 [+$499…+$582] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$57,029 NOT cap gain +$3,071 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.54/sh | +$432 cycle +$1,736 [+$250…+$328] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$56,154 NOT cap gain +$3,946 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.38/sh | +$301 cycle +$1,605 [-$41…+$134] · 67% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$50,886 NOT cap gain +$9,214 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$207 cycle +$1,511 [-$165…+$25] · 32% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$50,080 NOT cap gain +$10,020 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$789 cycle +$515 [-$1,633…-$1,103] | 91% surv 90% | -$33,976 NOT cap gain +$26,124 |
| budget: banked $1,304 debit $789 (60% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$515 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $594/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,890/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,395/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,121 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 385.3% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 24.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-24,088 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $31.68 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $32-33.69 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.69 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $32.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,304 | $-57,661 | +$2,439 | +$1,264 |
| +2.5% | $32.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $664 | $-56,861 | +$3,239 | +$624 |
| +5% | $33.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $24 | $-56,061 | +$4,039 | -$16 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-18,296 | $-34,961 | +$25,139 | -$17,136 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.77/sh | +$619 cycle +$1,851 [+$486…+$530] · 100% credit | 65% surv 55% | -$58,015 NOT cap gain +$2,085 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.52/sh | +$420 cycle +$1,652 [+$229…+$309] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$57,139 NOT cap gain +$2,961 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$35 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.48/sh | +$381 cycle +$1,613 [+$57…+$205] · 83% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$52,678 NOT cap gain +$7,422 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$187 cycle +$1,419 [-$200…-$10] · 22% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$51,071 NOT cap gain +$9,029 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.98/sh | -$787 cycle +$445 [-$1,658…-$1,122] | 91% surv 91% | -$34,946 NOT cap gain +$25,154 |
| budget: banked $1,232 debit $787 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$445 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $557/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,125/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,593 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 393.2% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 25.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-24,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $31.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-33.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,232 | $-58,633 | +$1,467 | +$1,192 |
| +2.5% | $32.29 (≤1σ, normal week) | $602 | $-57,846 | +$2,254 | +$562 |
| +5% | $33.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-28 | $-57,058 | +$3,042 | -$68 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-18,768 | $-35,433 | +$24,667 | -$17,608 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$529 cycle +$1,922 | 65% surv 55% | -$58,113 NOT cap gain +$1,987 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.39/sh | +$275 cycle +$1,668 | 68% surv 60% | -$57,293 NOT cap gain +$2,807 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$92 cycle +$1,485 | 77% surv 73% | -$51,176 NOT cap gain +$8,924 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.00/sh | -$701 cycle +$692 | 92% surv 92% | -$34,869 NOT cap gain +$25,231 |
| budget: banked $1,393 debit $701 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$692 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $431/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,224/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,738/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,679 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 344.6% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 22.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-21,084 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $30.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-33.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,393 | $-58,642 | +$1,458 | +$1,358 |
| +2.5% | $31.77 (≤1σ, normal week) | $851 | $-58,515 | +$1,585 | +$816 |
| +5% | $32.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $308 | $-57,662 | +$2,438 | +$273 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.9σ) | $-16,457 | $-33,267 | +$26,833 | -$15,442 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,458 cycle +$2,298 [+$1,346…+$1,840] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$66,102 NOT cap gain +$12,378 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.52/sh | +$786 cycle +$1,626 [+$380…+$993] · 95% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$59,400 NOT cap gain +$19,080 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$286 cycle +$1,126 [-$230…+$482] · 55% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$58,100 NOT cap gain +$20,380 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$61 cycle +$901 [-$416…+$236] · 40% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$64,625 NOT cap gain +$13,855 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.39/sh | -$585 cycle +$255 [-$1,287…-$469] · 9% credit | 81% surv 79% | -$52,671 NOT cap gain +$25,809 |
| budget: banked $840 debit $585 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$255 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,385/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-560/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$51,816 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 378.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 48.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.6 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-58,972 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-37.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $840 | $-67,560 | +$10,920 | +$825 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (1.0σ) | $-547 | $-67,283 | +$11,197 | -$562 |
| +5% | $38.85 (1.2σ) | $-1,935 | $-67,005 | +$11,475 | -$1,950 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-38,805 | $-59,631 | +$18,849 | -$38,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,589 cycle +$2,864 [+$1,369…+$1,939] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$67,339 NOT cap gain +$11,141 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.47/sh | +$796 cycle +$2,071 [+$273…+$964] · 92% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$60,757 NOT cap gain +$17,723 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$246 cycle +$1,521 [-$403…+$356] · 41% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$59,507 NOT cap gain +$18,973 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$41 cycle +$1,316 [-$554…+$136] · 31% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$66,012 NOT cap gain +$12,468 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.73/sh | -$1,244 cycle +$31 [-$2,347…-$1,316] · 1% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$52,897 NOT cap gain +$25,583 |
| budget: banked $1,275 debit $1,244 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,685/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,781/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,067/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$60,102 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 438.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 55.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.5 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-66,734 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-36.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,275 | $-68,927 | +$9,553 | +$1,258 |
| +2.5% | $36.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-255 | $-68,837 | +$9,643 | -$272 |
| +5% | $37.80 (1.0σ) | $-1,785 | $-68,747 | +$9,733 | -$1,802 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-45,356 | $-66,184 | +$12,296 | -$45,373 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.83/sh | +$1,569 cycle +$4,115 [+$1,245…+$1,523] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$71,490 NOT cap gain +$6,990 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.57/sh | +$1,088 cycle +$3,634 [+$679…+$936] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$70,896 NOT cap gain +$7,584 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$814 cycle +$3,360 [+$106…+$523] · 83% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$65,770 NOT cap gain +$12,710 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$29 cycle +$2,575 [-$928…-$374] · 11% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$63,855 NOT cap gain +$14,625 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,879 cycle +$667 [-$3,572…-$2,550] | 90% surv 90% | -$50,462 NOT cap gain +$28,018 |
| budget: banked $2,546 debit $1,879 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$667 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,594/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,548/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,830/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$71,752 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 523.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 66.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.8 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-74,689 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-34.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $34.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,546 | $-73,058 | +$5,422 | +$2,527 |
| +2.5% | $33.82 (≤1σ, normal week) | $979 | $-73,141 | +$5,339 | +$960 |
| +5% | $34.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-589 | $-73,223 | +$5,257 | -$608 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-55,271 | $-76,101 | +$2,379 | -$55,290 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.56/sh | +$3,125 cycle +$3,225 | 66% surv 56% | -$39,980 NOT cap gain +$38,500 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$55 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$472 cycle +$572 | 71% surv 65% | -$36,158 NOT cap gain +$42,322 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$489 cycle +$589 | 77% surv 73% | -$27,142 NOT cap gain +$51,338 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,345/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,108 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 307.4% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 39.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,630 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $50.49 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $51.00 (3.1σ) | $100 | $-43,105 | +$35,375 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $52.27 (3.3σ) | $-2,450 | $-43,360 | +$35,120 | -$2,470 |
| +5% | $53.55 (3.5σ) | $-5,000 | $-43,615 | +$34,865 | -$5,020 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-24,760 | $-45,591 | +$32,889 | -$24,780 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.52/sh | +$3,033 cycle +$3,133 | 66% surv 56% | -$41,872 NOT cap gain +$36,608 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$54 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$407 cycle +$507 | 71% surv 65% | -$38,024 NOT cap gain +$40,456 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.19/sh | +$379 cycle +$479 | 77% surv 73% | -$29,052 NOT cap gain +$49,428 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,345/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,108 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 322.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 41.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,550 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (2.9σ) | $100 | $-44,905 | +$33,575 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (3.1σ) | $-2,400 | $-45,155 | +$33,325 | -$2,420 |
| +5% | $52.50 (3.3σ) | $-4,900 | $-45,405 | +$33,075 | -$4,920 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-26,760 | $-47,591 | +$30,889 | -$26,780 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.47/sh | +$2,942 cycle +$3,102 [+$3,331…+$4,633] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$43,704 NOT cap gain +$34,776 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$342 cycle +$502 [+$239…+$1,786] · 86% credit | 71% surv 65% | -$39,829 NOT cap gain +$38,651 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$271 cycle +$431 [+$74…+$1,998] · 76% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$30,899 NOT cap gain +$47,581 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,120/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,048 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 336.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 42.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,530 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.00 (2.8σ) | $160 | $-46,645 | +$31,835 | +$140 |
| +2.5% | $50.22 (2.9σ) | $-2,290 | $-46,890 | +$31,590 | -$2,310 |
| +5% | $51.45 (3.1σ) | $-4,740 | $-47,135 | +$31,345 | -$4,760 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-28,700 | $-49,531 | +$28,949 | -$28,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.43/sh | +$2,852 cycle +$2,952 [+$3,587…+$4,257] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$45,654 NOT cap gain +$32,826 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.14/sh | +$279 cycle +$379 [+$333…+$1,632] · 87% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$41,752 NOT cap gain +$36,728 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$167 cycle +$267 [+$178…+$1,771] · 82% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$32,864 NOT cap gain +$45,616 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,345/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,108 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 351.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 44.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,730 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (2.6σ) | $100 | $-48,505 | +$29,975 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (2.8σ) | $-2,300 | $-48,745 | +$29,735 | -$2,320 |
| +5% | $50.40 (3.0σ) | $-4,700 | $-48,985 | +$29,495 | -$4,720 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-30,760 | $-51,591 | +$26,889 | -$30,780 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.38/sh | +$2,763 cycle +$2,863 [+$3,300…+$4,111] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$47,542 NOT cap gain +$30,938 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$217 cycle +$317 [+$214…+$1,342] · 84% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$43,614 NOT cap gain +$34,866 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$65 cycle +$165 [+$55…+$1,419] · 78% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$34,766 NOT cap gain +$43,714 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,345/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,108 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 365.8% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 46.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,670 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.4σ) | $100 | $-50,305 | +$28,175 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (2.6σ) | $-2,250 | $-50,540 | +$27,940 | -$2,270 |
| +5% | $49.35 (2.8σ) | $-4,600 | $-50,775 | +$27,705 | -$4,620 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-32,760 | $-53,591 | +$24,889 | -$32,780 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.34/sh | +$2,676 cycle +$2,796 [+$2,995…+$3,981] · 100% credit | 66% surv 56% | -$49,410 NOT cap gain +$29,070 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$156 cycle +$276 [-$36…+$1,158] · 73% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$45,455 NOT cap gain +$33,025 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$18 cycle +$138 [-$309…+$1,311] · 64% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$40,192 NOT cap gain +$38,288 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$34 cycle +$86 [-$361…+$1,180] · 62% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$36,645 NOT cap gain +$41,835 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $34 (28% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,834/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,270/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$52,088 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 380.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 48.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,580 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (2.3σ) | $120 | $-52,085 | +$26,395 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.5σ) | $-2,180 | $-52,315 | +$26,165 | -$2,200 |
| +5% | $48.30 (2.6σ) | $-4,480 | $-52,545 | +$25,935 | -$4,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-34,740 | $-55,571 | +$22,909 | -$34,760 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.29/sh | +$2,589 cycle +$2,709 [+$2,921…+$3,860] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$51,296 NOT cap gain +$27,184 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$546 cycle +$666 [+$276…+$1,828] · 83% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$43,265 NOT cap gain +$35,215 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$97 cycle +$217 [-$124…+$1,136] · 73% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$47,314 NOT cap gain +$31,166 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$52 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$61 cycle +$59 [-$426…+$1,198] · 60% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$42,072 NOT cap gain +$36,408 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $61 (51% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,546/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,270/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$54,088 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 394.8% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 50.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.9 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,620 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (2.1σ) | $120 | $-53,885 | +$24,595 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.3σ) | $-2,130 | $-54,110 | +$24,370 | -$2,150 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.5σ) | $-4,380 | $-54,335 | +$24,145 | -$4,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-36,740 | $-57,571 | +$20,909 | -$36,760 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.25/sh | +$2,504 cycle +$2,684 [+$2,778…+$3,720] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$53,121 NOT cap gain +$25,359 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$457 cycle +$637 [+$124…+$1,586] · 80% credit | 74% surv 70% | -$45,094 NOT cap gain +$33,386 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$38 cycle +$218 [-$240…+$873] · 62% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$49,112 NOT cap gain +$29,368 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.07/sh | -$138 cycle +$42 [-$555…+$933] · 54% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$43,889 NOT cap gain +$34,591 |
| budget: banked $180 debit $138 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,177/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $675/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -85% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3,045/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$56,028 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 409.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 52.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (2.0σ) | $180 | $-55,625 | +$22,855 | +$160 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (2.1σ) | $-2,020 | $-55,845 | +$22,635 | -$2,040 |
| +5% | $46.20 (2.3σ) | $-4,220 | $-56,065 | +$22,415 | -$4,240 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-38,680 | $-59,511 | +$18,969 | -$38,700 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.17/sh | +$2,338 cycle +$2,738 [+$2,389…+$3,467] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$56,667 NOT cap gain +$21,813 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$285 cycle +$685 [-$267…+$1,281] · 64% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$48,645 NOT cap gain +$29,835 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$45 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$22 cycle +$422 [-$433…+$837] · 54% credit | 70% surv 64% | -$54,309 NOT cap gain +$24,171 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.20/sh | -$399 cycle +$1 [-$1,021…+$481] · 36% credit | 79% surv 76% | -$43,930 NOT cap gain +$34,550 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $399 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,271/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -67% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,220/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$59,808 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 436.6% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 55.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,540 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.00 (1.7σ) | $400 | $-59,005 | +$19,475 | +$380 |
| +2.5% | $43.05 (1.8σ) | $-1,700 | $-59,215 | +$19,265 | -$1,720 |
| +5% | $44.10 (2.0σ) | $-3,800 | $-59,425 | +$19,055 | -$3,820 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-42,460 | $-63,291 | +$15,189 | -$42,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.13/sh | +$2,257 cycle +$2,737 [+$2,304…+$3,291] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$58,469 NOT cap gain +$20,011 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$220 cycle +$700 [-$167…+$903] · 64% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$57,631 NOT cap gain +$20,849 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$203 cycle +$683 [-$313…+$963] · 62% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$50,448 NOT cap gain +$28,032 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$355 cycle +$125 [-$974…+$374] · 35% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$49,206 NOT cap gain +$29,274 |
| budget: banked $480 debit $355 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $6,113/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -61% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,920/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$61,728 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 450.6% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 57.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,540 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.5σ) | $480 | $-60,725 | +$17,755 | +$460 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.7σ) | $-1,570 | $-60,930 | +$17,550 | -$1,590 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.8σ) | $-3,620 | $-61,135 | +$17,345 | -$3,640 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-44,380 | $-65,211 | +$13,269 | -$44,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.09/sh | +$2,177 cycle +$2,817 [+$2,191…+$2,825] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$60,189 NOT cap gain +$18,291 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$672 cycle +$1,312 [+$174…+$1,313] · 83% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$52,519 NOT cap gain +$25,961 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$184 cycle +$824 [-$301…+$752] · 56% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$59,307 NOT cap gain +$19,173 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$122 cycle +$762 [-$495…+$756] · 51% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$52,169 NOT cap gain +$26,311 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.28/sh | -$562 cycle +$78 [-$1,273…-$13] · 25% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$47,453 NOT cap gain +$31,027 |
| budget: banked $640 debit $562 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,540/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -48% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,320/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$63,568 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 464.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 59.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.9 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,500 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (1.3σ) | $640 | $-62,365 | +$16,115 | +$620 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.5σ) | $-1,360 | $-62,565 | +$15,915 | -$1,380 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.7σ) | $-3,360 | $-62,765 | +$15,715 | -$3,380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-46,220 | $-67,051 | +$11,429 | -$46,240 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.07/sh | +$2,137 cycle +$2,417 [+$2,059…+$2,925] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$61,488 NOT cap gain +$16,992 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$622 cycle +$902 [+$101…+$1,237] · 80% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$53,829 NOT cap gain +$24,651 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$167 cycle +$447 [-$353…+$696] · 51% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$60,584 NOT cap gain +$17,896 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$83 cycle +$363 [-$574…+$657] · 44% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$53,468 NOT cap gain +$25,012 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,670/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$64,928 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 473.9% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 60.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,930 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.87 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.87 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.50 (1.3σ) | $280 | $-63,625 | +$14,855 | +$260 |
| +2.5% | $40.49 (1.4σ) | $-1,695 | $-63,823 | +$14,657 | -$1,715 |
| +5% | $41.48 (1.6σ) | $-3,670 | $-64,020 | +$14,460 | -$3,690 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-47,580 | $-68,411 | +$10,069 | -$47,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.05/sh | +$2,098 cycle +$2,378 [+$1,961…+$2,672] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$62,428 NOT cap gain +$16,052 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$572 cycle +$852 [-$38…+$1,137] · 73% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$54,778 NOT cap gain +$23,702 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$149 cycle +$429 [-$456…+$633] · 50% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$61,502 NOT cap gain +$16,978 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$44 cycle +$324 [-$737…+$542] · 42% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$54,407 NOT cap gain +$24,073 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-2,670/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$65,928 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 481.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 61.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,990 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (1.2σ) | $280 | $-64,525 | +$13,955 | +$260 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (1.3σ) | $-1,670 | $-64,720 | +$13,760 | -$1,690 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.5σ) | $-3,620 | $-64,915 | +$13,565 | -$3,640 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-48,580 | $-69,411 | +$9,069 | -$48,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.03/sh | +$2,059 cycle +$2,819 [+$1,922…+$2,621] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$62,886 NOT cap gain +$15,594 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$524 cycle +$1,284 [-$65…+$1,025] · 71% credit | 75% surv 71% | -$55,247 NOT cap gain +$23,233 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$40 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$132 cycle +$892 [-$432…+$550] · 47% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$61,939 NOT cap gain +$16,541 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$6 cycle +$766 [-$721…+$424] · 37% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$54,865 NOT cap gain +$23,615 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$675 cycle +$85 [-$1,495…-$339] · 18% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$50,146 NOT cap gain +$28,334 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $675 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,016/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,850/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -38% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-870/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$66,448 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 485.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 61.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.2 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.04 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.04 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.50 (1.1σ) | $760 | $-64,945 | +$13,535 | +$740 |
| +2.5% | $39.46 (1.3σ) | $-1,165 | $-65,138 | +$13,342 | -$1,185 |
| +5% | $40.43 (1.4σ) | $-3,090 | $-65,330 | +$13,150 | -$3,110 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-49,100 | $-69,931 | +$8,549 | -$49,120 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.99/sh | +$1,982 cycle +$2,522 [+$1,841…+$2,514] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$64,983 NOT cap gain +$13,497 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$428 cycle +$968 [-$203…+$710] · 60% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$57,363 NOT cap gain +$21,117 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$98 cycle +$638 [-$490…+$338] · 42% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$63,993 NOT cap gain +$14,487 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.25/sh | -$497 cycle +$43 [-$1,366…-$290] · 19% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$56,488 NOT cap gain +$21,992 |
| budget: banked $540 debit $497 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,093/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,695/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$68,668 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 501.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 63.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-79,000 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $540 | $-66,965 | +$11,515 | +$520 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (1.1σ) | $-1,335 | $-67,153 | +$11,327 | -$1,355 |
| +5% | $39.38 (1.2σ) | $-3,210 | $-67,340 | +$11,140 | -$3,230 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-51,320 | $-72,151 | +$6,329 | -$51,340 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.95/sh | +$1,906 cycle +$2,686 [+$1,645…+$2,300] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$66,619 NOT cap gain +$11,861 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.50/sh | +$992 cycle +$1,772 [+$398…+$1,185] · 95% credit | 74% surv 69% | -$60,159 NOT cap gain +$18,321 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$334 cycle +$1,114 [-$388…+$453] · 46% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$59,016 NOT cap gain +$19,464 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$65 cycle +$845 [-$608…+$164] · 32% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$65,586 NOT cap gain +$12,894 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$639 cycle +$141 [-$1,610…-$616] · 12% credit | 78% surv 75% | -$57,290 NOT cap gain +$21,190 |
| budget: banked $780 debit $639 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$141 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,641/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,925/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | -36% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-795/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$70,428 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 514.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 65.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-78,860 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $36-37.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $36.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $780 | $-68,525 | +$9,955 | +$760 |
| +2.5% | $37.41 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,045 | $-68,708 | +$9,772 | -$1,065 |
| +5% | $38.33 (1.1σ) | $-2,870 | $-68,890 | +$9,590 | -$2,890 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-53,080 | $-73,911 | +$4,569 | -$53,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.92/sh | +$1,465 cycle +$2,745 [+$1,250…+$1,650] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$68,356 NOT cap gain +$10,124 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.44/sh | +$705 cycle +$1,985 [+$180…+$768] · 89% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$61,742 NOT cap gain +$16,738 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$195 cycle +$1,475 [-$453…+$185] · 33% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$60,452 NOT cap gain +$18,028 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$26 cycle +$1,306 [-$567…+$15] · 26% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$66,921 NOT cap gain +$11,559 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.74/sh | -$1,181 cycle +$99 [-$2,235…-$1,330] · 1% credit | 83% surv 82% | -$53,727 NOT cap gain +$24,753 |
| budget: banked $1,280 debit $1,181 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $2,426/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,088/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$57,287 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 418.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 53.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.2 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-63,008 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $35.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-36.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $36.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,280 | $-69,821 | +$8,659 | +$1,264 |
| +2.5% | $36.39 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-140 | $-69,644 | +$8,836 | -$156 |
| +5% | $37.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,560 | $-69,466 | +$9,014 | -$1,576 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-43,408 | $-64,235 | +$14,245 | -$43,424 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,257 cycle +$2,489 [+$1,068…+$1,412] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$69,511 NOT cap gain +$8,969 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.41/sh | +$579 cycle +$1,811 [+$107…+$574] · 85% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$62,814 NOT cap gain +$15,666 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$140 cycle +$1,372 [-$451…+$86] · 30% credit | 76% surv 72% | -$61,453 NOT cap gain +$17,027 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$37 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$12 cycle +$1,244 [-$526…-$38] · 22% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$67,881 NOT cap gain +$10,599 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.87/sh | -$1,217 cycle +$15 [-$2,251…-$1,433] | 87% surv 86% | -$51,110 NOT cap gain +$27,370 |
| budget: banked $1,232 debit $1,217 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $1,742/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $912/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,714 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 370.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 47.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.5 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-55,013 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,232 | $-70,767 | +$7,713 | +$1,218 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7 | $-70,417 | +$8,063 | -$7 |
| +5% | $36.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,218 | $-70,067 | +$8,413 | -$1,232 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-38,570 | $-59,395 | +$19,085 | -$38,584 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.88/sh | +$1,495 cycle +$2,770 [+$1,233…+$1,663] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$70,133 NOT cap gain +$8,347 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.39/sh | +$658 cycle +$1,933 [+$66…+$593] · 82% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$63,595 NOT cap gain +$14,885 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$133 cycle +$1,408 [-$603…-$5] · 25% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$62,320 NOT cap gain +$16,160 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$1 cycle +$1,276 [-$667…-$125] · 19% credit | 68% surv 62% | -$68,752 NOT cap gain +$9,728 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.75/sh | -$1,273 cycle +$2 [-$2,463…-$1,589] · 1% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$55,626 NOT cap gain +$22,854 |
| budget: banked $1,275 debit $1,273 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,368/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,781/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,067/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$62,652 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 457.3% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 58.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.8 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-67,133 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-35.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,275 | $-71,627 | +$6,853 | +$1,258 |
| +2.5% | $35.36 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-191 | $-71,541 | +$6,939 | -$208 |
| +5% | $36.23 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,658 | $-71,455 | +$7,025 | -$1,674 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-47,906 | $-68,734 | +$9,746 | -$47,923 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,033 cycle +$2,341 [+$842…+$1,134] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$71,456 NOT cap gain +$7,024 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$35 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.61/sh | +$726 cycle +$2,034 [+$480…+$725] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$70,688 NOT cap gain +$7,792 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.36/sh | +$433 cycle +$1,741 [+$10…+$361] · 76% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$64,682 NOT cap gain +$13,798 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$68 cycle +$1,376 [-$461…-$66] · 22% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$63,247 NOT cap gain +$15,233 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$1,187 cycle +$121 [-$2,117…-$1,452] | 90% surv 89% | -$49,201 NOT cap gain +$29,279 |
| budget: banked $1,308 debit $1,187 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$121 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,129/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,905/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +7% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,201/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,417 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 324.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 41.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $-47,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.66 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $34-35.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $34.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,308 | $-72,489 | +$5,991 | +$1,296 |
| +2.5% | $34.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $288 | $-71,979 | +$6,501 | +$276 |
| +5% | $35.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-732 | $-71,469 | +$7,011 | -$744 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-34,008 | $-54,831 | +$23,649 | -$34,020 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.84/sh | +$928 cycle +$2,259 [+$739…+$940] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$72,438 NOT cap gain +$6,042 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.59/sh | +$648 cycle +$1,979 [+$414…+$617] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$71,643 NOT cap gain +$6,837 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$38 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.33/sh | +$368 cycle +$1,699 [-$63…+$229] · 64% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$65,623 NOT cap gain +$12,857 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$39 cycle +$1,370 [-$500…-$153] · 16% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$64,151 NOT cap gain +$14,329 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.12/sh | -$1,237 cycle +$94 [-$2,274…-$1,607] | 92% surv 92% | -$46,528 NOT cap gain +$31,952 |
| budget: banked $1,331 debit $1,237 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$94 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $729/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,991/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,289/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,134 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 300.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 38.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-43,241 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $33.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $33-34.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $34.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $33.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,331 | $-73,365 | +$5,115 | +$1,320 |
| +2.5% | $34.34 (≤1σ, normal week) | $410 | $-72,779 | +$5,701 | +$399 |
| +5% | $35.18 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-512 | $-72,193 | +$6,287 | -$522 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-31,592 | $-52,414 | +$26,066 | -$31,603 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.79/sh | +$632 cycle +$1,936 [+$499…+$582] · 100% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$75,457 NOT cap gain +$3,023 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$33 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.54/sh | +$432 cycle +$1,736 [+$250…+$328] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$74,582 NOT cap gain +$3,898 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.38/sh | +$301 cycle +$1,605 [-$41…+$134] · 67% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$69,314 NOT cap gain +$9,166 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$207 cycle +$1,511 [-$165…+$25] · 32% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$68,508 NOT cap gain +$9,972 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.99/sh | -$789 cycle +$515 [-$1,633…-$1,103] | 91% surv 90% | -$52,404 NOT cap gain +$26,076 |
| budget: banked $1,304 debit $789 (60% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$515 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $594/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,890/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,194/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,779 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 224.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 28.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-31,440 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $31.68 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $32-33.69 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.69 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $32.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,304 | $-76,089 | +$2,391 | +$1,296 |
| +2.5% | $32.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $664 | $-75,289 | +$3,191 | +$656 |
| +5% | $33.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $24 | $-74,489 | +$3,991 | +$16 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-23,840 | $-44,659 | +$33,821 | -$23,848 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.77/sh | +$619 cycle +$1,851 [+$486…+$530] · 100% credit | 65% surv 55% | -$76,443 NOT cap gain +$2,037 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.52/sh | +$420 cycle +$1,652 [+$229…+$309] · 100% credit | 67% surv 58% | -$75,567 NOT cap gain +$2,913 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$35 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.48/sh | +$381 cycle +$1,613 [+$57…+$205] · 83% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$71,106 NOT cap gain +$7,374 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$187 cycle +$1,419 [-$200…-$10] · 22% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$69,499 NOT cap gain +$8,981 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.98/sh | -$787 cycle +$445 [-$1,658…-$1,122] | 91% surv 91% | -$53,374 NOT cap gain +$25,106 |
| budget: banked $1,232 debit $787 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$445 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $557/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $924/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,251 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 228.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 29.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-31,552 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $31.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-33.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,232 | $-77,061 | +$1,419 | +$1,224 |
| +2.5% | $32.29 (≤1σ, normal week) | $602 | $-76,274 | +$2,206 | +$594 |
| +5% | $33.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-28 | $-75,486 | +$2,994 | -$36 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-24,312 | $-45,131 | +$33,349 | -$24,320 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$529 cycle +$1,922 | 65% surv 55% | -$76,545 NOT cap gain +$1,935 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.39/sh | +$275 cycle +$1,668 | 68% surv 60% | -$75,725 NOT cap gain +$2,755 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$92 cycle +$1,485 | 77% surv 73% | -$69,608 NOT cap gain +$8,872 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.00/sh | -$701 cycle +$692 | 92% surv 92% | -$53,301 NOT cap gain +$25,179 |
| budget: banked $1,393 debit $701 (50% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$692 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $431/mo while parked; 13 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,224/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,594/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($9,188/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,530/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,380 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 199.9% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 25.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-27,517 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $30.69 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $31-33.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $33.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $31.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,393 | $-77,074 | +$1,406 | +$1,386 |
| +2.5% | $31.77 (≤1σ, normal week) | $851 | $-76,947 | +$1,533 | +$844 |
| +5% | $32.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $308 | $-76,094 | +$2,386 | +$301 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.0σ) | $-21,308 | $-42,126 | +$36,354 | -$21,315 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$5,039 cycle +$6,639 [+$4,840…+$7,693] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | +$2,001 SAFE cap gain +$9,801 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$5,109 cycle +$6,709 [+$4,945…+$7,739] · 100% credit | 67% surv 55% | +$2,133 SAFE cap gain +$9,933 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$5,566 cycle +$7,166 [+$5,085…+$8,467] · 100% credit | 70% surv 61% | +$3,210 SAFE cap gain +$11,010 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$59 cycle +$1,659 [-$1,214…+$2,257] · 58% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$1,057 NOT cap gain +$6,743 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -57% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,634 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 269.4% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 269.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-7,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.6σ) | $1,600 | $-3,038 | +$4,762 | +$1,400 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.8σ) | $-4,900 | $-9,135 | -$1,335 | -$5,100 |
| +5% | $13.65 (2.0σ) | $-11,400 | $-15,232 | -$7,432 | -$11,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (18.9σ) | $-549,400 | $-519,876 | -$512,076 | -$98,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (145 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.22/sh | +$3,233 cycle +$5,698 [+$2,466…+$4,157] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$125 NOT cap gain +$7,675 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.22/sh | +$3,246 cycle +$5,711 [+$2,519…+$4,168] · 100% credit | 67% surv 55% | -$50 NOT cap gain +$7,750 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$3,284 cycle +$5,749 [+$2,149…+$4,209] · 98% credit | 71% surv 62% | +$608 SAFE cap gain +$8,408 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.12/sh | -$1,713 cycle +$752 [-$3,687…-$1,239] · 12% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$2,529 NOT cap gain +$5,271 |
| budget: banked $2,465 debit $1,713 (69% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$752 cash · rolled 145 ct earn ≈ $9,594/mo while parked; 55 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,244/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,354/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,680 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 315.3% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 315.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (145 ct) | $-5,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,465 | $-3,358 | +$4,442 | +$2,320 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (1.2σ) | $-1,885 | $-7,336 | +$464 | -$2,030 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.3σ) | $-6,235 | $-11,314 | -$3,514 | -$6,380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (18.9σ) | $-411,510 | $-505,956 | -$498,156 | -$84,680 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (163 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$3,402 cycle +$7,151 [+$2,327…+$3,689] · 100% credit | 67% surv 55% | +$752 SAFE cap gain +$8,552 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$3,408 cycle +$7,157 [+$2,278…+$3,673] · 99% credit | 66% surv 54% | +$696 SAFE cap gain +$8,496 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$12 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$3,290 cycle +$7,039 [+$1,638…+$3,365] · 96% credit | 71% surv 62% | +$1,260 SAFE cap gain +$9,060 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.21/sh | -$3,424 cycle +$325 [-$6,383…-$4,064] · 1% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$2,974 NOT cap gain +$4,826 |
| budget: banked $3,749 debit $3,424 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$325 cash · rolled 163 ct earn ≈ $7,415/mo while parked; 37 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,059/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,133/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,157 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 419.6% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 419.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (163 ct) | $-6,928 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,749 | $-2,712 | +$5,088 | +$3,586 |
| +2.5% | $11.79 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-937 | $-7,042 | +$758 | -$1,100 |
| +5% | $12.08 (1.0σ) | $-5,624 | $-11,372 | -$3,572 | -$5,787 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (18.9σ) | $-469,766 | $-523,640 | -$515,840 | -$102,364 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (183 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$11 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$3,289 cycle +$10,792 [+$1,624…+$2,338] · 98% credit | 66% surv 55% | +$3,133 SAFE cap gain +$10,933 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$10 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$3,340 cycle +$10,843 [+$1,576…+$2,341] · 98% credit | 66% surv 54% | +$3,122 SAFE cap gain +$10,922 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$11 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$2,835 cycle +$10,338 [+$102…+$1,409] · 77% credit | 71% surv 63% | +$3,299 SAFE cap gain +$11,099 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.31/sh | -$5,729 cycle +$1,774 [-$11,856…-$8,140] | 92% surv 92% | -$1,545 NOT cap gain +$6,255 |
| budget: banked $7,503 debit $5,729 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,774 cash · rolled 183 ct earn ≈ $3,307/mo while parked; 17 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $28,136/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $28,170/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$66,826 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 607.5% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 607.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (183 ct) | $-8,601 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10.39 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $10-10.99 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $10.99 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $10.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7,503 | $-218 | +$7,582 | +$7,320 |
| +2.5% | $10.76 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,699 | $-4,696 | +$3,104 | +$2,516 |
| +5% | $11.03 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,105 | $-9,175 | -$1,375 | -$2,288 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (18.9σ) | $-542,412 | $-551,206 | -$543,406 | -$129,930 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$5,340 cycle +$6,540 [+$5,610…+$8,790] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | +$2,522 SAFE cap gain +$10,322 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$5,437 cycle +$6,637 [+$5,745…+$8,828] · 100% credit | 67% surv 55% | +$2,681 SAFE cap gain +$10,481 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$497 cycle +$1,697 [+$286…+$4,322] · 77% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$399 NOT cap gain +$7,401 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -68% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,034 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 182.1% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 182.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-7,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.37 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.50 (1.9σ) | $1,200 | $-2,818 | +$4,982 | +$1,000 |
| +2.5% | $13.84 (2.1σ) | $-5,550 | $-9,149 | -$1,349 | -$5,750 |
| +5% | $14.18 (2.3σ) | $-12,300 | $-15,481 | -$7,681 | -$12,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (18.9σ) | $-539,800 | $-510,276 | -$502,476 | -$89,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$4,788 cycle +$6,788 [+$4,126…+$6,670] · 100% credit | 67% surv 55% | +$1,592 SAFE cap gain +$9,392 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$4,745 cycle +$6,745 [+$4,045…+$6,651] · 99% credit | 66% surv 54% | +$1,487 SAFE cap gain +$9,287 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$5,040 cycle +$7,040 [+$4,024…+$7,100] · 99% credit | 70% surv 62% | +$2,464 SAFE cap gain +$10,264 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$14 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.02/sh | -$355 cycle +$1,645 [-$2,080…+$1,484] · 44% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$1,691 NOT cap gain +$6,109 |
| budget: banked $2,000 debit $355 (18% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,645 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $17,681/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | -46% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,234 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 356.7% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 356.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-8,400 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.50 (1.3σ) | $2,000 | $-3,258 | +$4,542 | +$1,800 |
| +2.5% | $12.81 (1.5σ) | $-4,250 | $-9,120 | -$1,320 | -$4,450 |
| +5% | $13.12 (1.7σ) | $-10,500 | $-14,983 | -$7,183 | -$10,700 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (18.9σ) | $-559,000 | $-529,476 | -$521,676 | -$108,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (110 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$11 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$2,134 cycle +$5,874 [+$1,303…+$1,978] · 99% credit | 66% surv 55% | -$1,092 NOT cap gain +$6,708 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$11 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.20/sh | +$2,152 cycle +$5,892 [+$1,270…+$1,976] · 99% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$1,136 NOT cap gain +$6,664 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$12 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$1,957 cycle +$5,697 [+$655…+$1,570] · 91% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$649 NOT cap gain +$7,151 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$3,480 cycle +$260 [-$6,258…-$4,456] | 91% surv 90% | -$2,366 NOT cap gain +$5,434 |
| budget: banked $3,740 debit $3,480 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$260 cash · rolled 110 ct earn ≈ $2,483/mo while parked; 90 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,000/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($28,000/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,205/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,439 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 322.2% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 322.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (110 ct) | $-4,565 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.37 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.37 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,740 | $-3,288 | +$4,512 | +$3,630 |
| +2.5% | $11.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $715 | $-5,972 | +$1,828 | +$605 |
| +5% | $11.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,310 | $-8,656 | -$856 | -$2,420 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (18.9σ) | $-321,310 | $-494,646 | -$486,846 | -$73,370 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$962 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.05/sh | +$3,027 cycle +$6,402 [-$1,173…+$6,981] · 68% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$48,237 NOT cap gain +$117,078 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$972 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.82/sh | +$912 cycle +$4,287 [-$3,644…+$4,826] · 51% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$45,056 NOT cap gain +$120,259 |
| SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$997 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$5.04/sh | -$2,518 cycle +$857 [-$7,668…+$1,384] · 30% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$35,250 NOT cap gain +$130,065 |
| budget: banked $3,375 debit $2,518 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$857 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $30,700/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$915 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$13.58/sh | -$6,789 cycle -$3,414 [-$11,838…-$2,878] · 10% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$82,945 NOT cap gain +$82,370 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -54% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 23% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,936/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$74,458 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 100.2% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 17.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,553 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $905.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $906-922.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $922.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $915.00 (1.4σ) | $3,375 | $-76,156 | +$89,159 | +$1,100 |
| +2.5% | $937.87 (1.6σ) | $-8,062 | $-75,481 | +$89,834 | -$10,337 |
| +5% | $960.75 (1.7σ) | $-19,500 | $-74,806 | +$90,509 | -$21,775 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (2.3σ) | $-53,425 | $-72,805 | +$92,510 | -$55,700 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$927 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.45/sh | +$3,223 cycle +$8,498 [-$1,920…+$4,964] · 60% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$64,674 NOT cap gain +$100,641 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$937 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.27/sh | +$1,137 cycle +$6,412 [-$4,561…+$2,774] · 43% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$61,465 NOT cap gain +$103,850 |
| SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$982 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$9.70/sh | -$4,851 cycle +$424 [-$12,309…-$3,693] · 10% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$43,625 NOT cap gain +$121,690 |
| budget: banked $5,275 debit $4,851 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$424 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $25,477/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$880 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$12.52/sh | -$6,259 cycle -$984 [-$12,676…-$4,826] · 6% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$99,047 NOT cap gain +$66,268 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $19,781/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -28% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,061/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$90,058 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 121.2% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 21.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,578 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $871.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $871-891.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $891.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $880.00 (1.1σ) | $5,275 | $-92,788 | +$72,527 | +$3,000 |
| +2.5% | $902.00 (1.3σ) | $-5,725 | $-92,139 | +$73,176 | -$8,000 |
| +5% | $924.00 (1.4σ) | $-16,725 | $-91,490 | +$73,825 | -$19,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (2.3σ) | $-69,025 | $-88,405 | +$76,910 | -$71,300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$887 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$9.20/sh | +$4,599 cycle +$12,274 [-$141…+$5,780] · 74% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$82,077 NOT cap gain +$83,238 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$907 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.59/sh | +$1,296 cycle +$8,971 [-$4,806…+$1,736] · 35% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$74,791 NOT cap gain +$90,524 |
| SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$850 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$11.64/sh | -$5,822 cycle +$1,853 [-$12,587…-$5,620] · 6% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$112,095 NOT cap gain +$53,220 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$977 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$14.72/sh | -$7,361 cycle +$314 [-$15,652…-$7,584] · 3% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$46,382 NOT cap gain +$118,933 |
| budget: banked $7,675 debit $7,361 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$314 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $20,150/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $28,781/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $28,061/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$102,658 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 138.2% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 24.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,590 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $841.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $842-865.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $865.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $850.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $7,675 | $-106,273 | +$59,042 | +$5,400 |
| +2.5% | $871.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,950 | $-105,646 | +$59,669 | -$5,225 |
| +5% | $892.50 (1.2σ) | $-13,575 | $-105,019 | +$60,296 | -$15,850 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (2.3σ) | $-81,625 | $-101,005 | +$64,310 | -$83,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$832 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$9.63/sh | +$4,814 cycle +$19,564 [-$860…+$3,175] · 64% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$103,910 NOT cap gain +$61,405 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$852 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$3.02/sh | +$1,508 cycle +$16,258 [-$5,563…-$779] · 20% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$96,626 NOT cap gain +$68,689 |
| SS $1,029 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$795 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$10.12/sh | -$5,061 cycle +$9,689 [-$12,880…-$7,587] · 3% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$133,381 NOT cap gain +$31,934 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,037 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$28.00/sh | -$13,999 cycle +$751 [-$25,664…-$17,708] | 90% surv 90% | -$14,176 NOT cap gain +$151,139 |
| budget: banked $14,750 debit $13,999 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$751 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,988/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $55,312/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $54,592/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$123,083 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 165.7% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 29.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,603 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $787.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $787-825.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $825.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $795.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $14,750 | $-128,321 | +$36,994 | +$12,475 |
| +2.5% | $814.87 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,813 | $-127,734 | +$37,581 | +$2,538 |
| +5% | $834.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-5,125 | $-127,148 | +$38,167 | -$7,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,028.60 (2.3σ) | $-102,050 | $-121,430 | +$43,885 | -$104,325 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,290 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$27.65/sh | -$13,826 cycle -$13,665 | 60% surv 52% | +$105,367 SAFE cap gain +$270,682 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,317 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.77/sh | +$385 cycle +$546 | 69% surv 58% | +$133,880 SAFE cap gain +$299,195 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $606/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-114/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,324 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,277.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,277-1,290.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,290.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,290.00 (4.5σ) | $162 | $119,193 | +$284,508 | +$127,886 |
| +2.5% | $1,322.25 (4.8σ) | $-15,963 | $120,145 | +$285,460 | +$127,886 |
| +5% | $1,354.50 (5.1σ) | $-32,088 | $121,096 | +$286,411 | +$127,886 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,280 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$27.21/sh | -$13,607 cycle -$13,436 | 61% surv 52% | +$100,301 SAFE cap gain +$265,616 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,307 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.22/sh | +$612 cycle +$783 | 69% surv 58% | +$128,821 SAFE cap gain +$294,136 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $641/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-79/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,324 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,267.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,267-1,280.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,280.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,280.00 (4.4σ) | $171 | $113,908 | +$279,223 | +$122,896 |
| +2.5% | $1,312.00 (4.7σ) | $-15,829 | $114,852 | +$280,167 | +$122,896 |
| +5% | $1,344.00 (5.0σ) | $-31,829 | $115,796 | +$281,111 | +$122,896 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,270 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$26.78/sh | -$13,388 cycle -$13,208 | 61% surv 52% | +$95,234 SAFE cap gain +$260,549 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,297 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.67/sh | +$835 cycle +$1,015 | 69% surv 58% | +$123,759 SAFE cap gain +$289,074 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $677/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-43/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,325 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,257.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,257-1,270.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,270.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,270.00 (4.3σ) | $180 | $108,622 | +$273,937 | +$117,906 |
| +2.5% | $1,301.75 (4.6σ) | $-15,694 | $109,559 | +$274,874 | +$117,906 |
| +5% | $1,333.50 (4.9σ) | $-31,570 | $110,496 | +$275,811 | +$117,906 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,260 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$26.34/sh | -$13,172 cycle -$12,987 | 61% surv 52% | +$90,160 SAFE cap gain +$255,475 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,287 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.11/sh | +$1,054 cycle +$1,239 | 69% surv 58% | +$118,688 SAFE cap gain +$284,003 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $695/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-25/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,325 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,247.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,247-1,260.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,260.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,260.00 (4.3σ) | $185 | $103,332 | +$268,647 | +$112,910 |
| +2.5% | $1,291.50 (4.5σ) | $-15,565 | $104,261 | +$269,576 | +$112,910 |
| +5% | $1,323.00 (4.8σ) | $-31,315 | $105,191 | +$270,506 | +$112,910 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,250 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$25.92/sh | -$12,958 cycle -$12,763 | 61% surv 52% | +$85,089 SAFE cap gain +$250,404 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,277 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.54/sh | +$1,269 cycle +$1,464 | 69% surv 58% | +$113,617 SAFE cap gain +$278,932 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $730/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,325 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,237.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,238-1,250.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,250.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,250.00 (4.2σ) | $195 | $98,047 | +$263,362 | +$107,920 |
| +2.5% | $1,281.25 (4.4σ) | $-15,430 | $98,968 | +$264,283 | +$107,920 |
| +5% | $1,312.50 (4.7σ) | $-31,055 | $99,890 | +$265,205 | +$107,920 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,240 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$25.49/sh | -$12,745 cycle -$12,670 | 61% surv 52% | +$79,887 SAFE cap gain +$245,202 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,267 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.96/sh | +$1,479 cycle +$1,554 | 69% surv 59% | +$108,413 SAFE cap gain +$273,728 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $281/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-439/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,227.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,228-1,240.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,240.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,240.00 (4.1σ) | $75 | $92,632 | +$257,947 | +$102,800 |
| +2.5% | $1,271.00 (4.4σ) | $-15,425 | $93,546 | +$258,861 | +$102,800 |
| +5% | $1,302.00 (4.6σ) | $-30,925 | $94,461 | +$259,776 | +$102,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,230 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$25.07/sh | -$12,534 cycle -$12,449 | 61% surv 52% | +$74,813 SAFE cap gain +$240,128 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,257 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$3.37/sh | +$1,686 cycle +$1,771 | 69% surv 59% | +$103,334 SAFE cap gain +$268,649 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $319/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-401/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,217.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,218-1,230.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,230.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,230.00 (4.0σ) | $85 | $87,347 | +$252,662 | +$97,810 |
| +2.5% | $1,260.75 (4.3σ) | $-15,290 | $88,254 | +$253,569 | +$97,810 |
| +5% | $1,291.50 (4.5σ) | $-30,665 | $89,161 | +$254,476 | +$97,810 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,220 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$24.65/sh | -$12,325 cycle -$12,230 | 61% surv 52% | +$69,737 SAFE cap gain +$235,052 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,247 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$3.78/sh | +$1,888 cycle +$1,983 | 69% surv 59% | +$98,252 SAFE cap gain +$263,567 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,257 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.13/sh | -$65 cycle +$30 | 70% surv 60% | +$101,594 SAFE cap gain +$266,909 |
| budget: banked $95 debit $65 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$30 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $46,422/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $356/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-364/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,453 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,207.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,208-1,220.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,220.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $95 | $82,062 | +$247,377 | +$92,820 |
| +2.5% | $1,250.50 (4.2σ) | $-15,155 | $82,962 | +$248,277 | +$92,820 |
| +5% | $1,281.00 (4.4σ) | $-30,405 | $83,861 | +$249,176 | +$92,820 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,210 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$24.23/sh | -$12,117 cycle -$12,007 | 61% surv 52% | +$64,665 SAFE cap gain +$229,980 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,247 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$136 cycle +$246 | 70% surv 61% | +$96,514 SAFE cap gain +$261,829 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $412/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-308/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,197.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,198-1,210.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,210.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,210.00 (3.8σ) | $110 | $76,782 | +$242,097 | +$87,835 |
| +2.5% | $1,240.25 (4.1σ) | $-15,015 | $77,674 | +$242,989 | +$87,835 |
| +5% | $1,270.50 (4.4σ) | $-30,140 | $78,567 | +$243,882 | +$87,835 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,200 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$23.82/sh | -$11,912 cycle -$11,712 | 61% surv 52% | +$59,665 SAFE cap gain +$224,980 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,237 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.66/sh | +$332 cycle +$532 | 70% surv 61% | +$91,505 SAFE cap gain +$256,820 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $30/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,368 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,188.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,188-1,200.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,200.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,200.00 (3.8σ) | $200 | $71,577 | +$236,892 | +$82,925 |
| +2.5% | $1,230.00 (4.0σ) | $-14,800 | $72,462 | +$237,777 | +$82,925 |
| +5% | $1,260.00 (4.3σ) | $-29,800 | $73,347 | +$238,662 | +$82,925 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,190 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$23.42/sh | -$11,708 cycle -$11,573 | 61% surv 52% | +$54,509 SAFE cap gain +$219,824 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,227 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.05/sh | +$524 cycle +$659 | 70% surv 61% | +$86,337 SAFE cap gain +$251,652 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $506/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-214/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,178.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,178-1,190.54 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,190.54 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,190.00 (3.7σ) | $135 | $66,217 | +$231,532 | +$77,860 |
| +2.5% | $1,219.75 (3.9σ) | $-14,740 | $67,094 | +$232,409 | +$77,860 |
| +5% | $1,249.50 (4.2σ) | $-29,615 | $67,972 | +$233,287 | +$77,860 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,180 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$23.01/sh | -$11,505 cycle -$11,355 | 61% surv 52% | +$49,431 SAFE cap gain +$214,746 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,227 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$101 cycle +$251 | 70% surv 62% | +$85,930 SAFE cap gain +$251,245 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-158/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,410 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,168.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,168-1,180.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,180.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,180.00 (3.6σ) | $150 | $60,937 | +$226,252 | +$72,875 |
| +2.5% | $1,209.50 (3.8σ) | $-14,600 | $61,807 | +$227,122 | +$72,875 |
| +5% | $1,239.00 (4.1σ) | $-29,350 | $62,677 | +$227,992 | +$72,875 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,170 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$22.61/sh | -$11,305 cycle -$11,135 | 61% surv 52% | +$44,357 SAFE cap gain +$209,672 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,217 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.52/sh | +$258 cycle +$428 | 70% surv 62% | +$80,812 SAFE cap gain +$246,127 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $638/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-82/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,158.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,158-1,170.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,170.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,170.00 (3.5σ) | $170 | $55,662 | +$220,977 | +$67,895 |
| +2.5% | $1,199.25 (3.8σ) | $-14,455 | $56,525 | +$221,840 | +$67,895 |
| +5% | $1,228.50 (4.0σ) | $-29,080 | $57,388 | +$222,703 | +$67,895 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,160 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$22.21/sh | -$11,106 cycle -$10,916 | 61% surv 53% | +$39,280 SAFE cap gain +$204,595 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,207 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$411 cycle +$601 | 70% surv 62% | +$75,690 SAFE cap gain +$241,005 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $712/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-8/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,448 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,148.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,148-1,160.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,160.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,160.00 (3.4σ) | $190 | $50,387 | +$215,702 | +$62,915 |
| +2.5% | $1,189.00 (3.7σ) | $-14,310 | $51,242 | +$216,557 | +$62,915 |
| +5% | $1,218.00 (3.9σ) | $-28,810 | $52,098 | +$217,413 | +$62,915 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,150 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$21.82/sh | -$10,909 cycle -$10,639 | 61% surv 53% | +$34,262 SAFE cap gain +$199,577 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,197 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.12/sh | +$561 cycle +$831 | 70% surv 62% | +$70,625 SAFE cap gain +$235,940 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,013/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $293/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,408 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,138.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,138-1,150.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,150.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,150.00 (3.3σ) | $270 | $45,172 | +$210,487 | +$57,995 |
| +2.5% | $1,178.75 (3.6σ) | $-14,105 | $46,020 | +$211,335 | +$57,995 |
| +5% | $1,207.50 (3.8σ) | $-28,480 | $46,868 | +$212,183 | +$57,995 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,140 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$21.43/sh | -$10,714 cycle -$10,409 | 61% surv 53% | +$29,197 SAFE cap gain +$194,512 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,187 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.41/sh | +$707 cycle +$1,012 | 70% surv 62% | +$65,510 SAFE cap gain +$230,825 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,144/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $424/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,415 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,128.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,129-1,140.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,140.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,140.00 (3.3σ) | $305 | $39,912 | +$205,227 | +$53,030 |
| +2.5% | $1,168.50 (3.5σ) | $-13,945 | $40,753 | +$206,068 | +$53,030 |
| +5% | $1,197.00 (3.7σ) | $-28,195 | $41,593 | +$206,908 | +$53,030 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,135 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$21.23/sh | -$10,617 cycle -$10,362 | 61% surv 53% | +$26,597 SAFE cap gain +$191,912 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,182 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.56/sh | +$779 cycle +$1,034 | 70% surv 62% | +$62,885 SAFE cap gain +$228,200 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $956/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $236/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,448 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,123.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,124-1,135.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,135.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,135.00 (3.2σ) | $255 | $37,214 | +$202,529 | +$50,480 |
| +2.5% | $1,163.38 (3.5σ) | $-13,932 | $38,051 | +$203,366 | +$50,480 |
| +5% | $1,191.75 (3.7σ) | $-28,120 | $38,888 | +$204,203 | +$50,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,130 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$21.04/sh | -$10,521 cycle -$10,211 | 61% surv 53% | +$24,101 SAFE cap gain +$189,416 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,177 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.70/sh | +$849 cycle +$1,159 | 70% surv 62% | +$60,363 SAFE cap gain +$225,678 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,163/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $443/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,423 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,118.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,119-1,130.84 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,130.84 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,130.00 (3.2σ) | $310 | $34,622 | +$199,937 | +$48,035 |
| +2.5% | $1,158.25 (3.4σ) | $-13,815 | $35,455 | +$200,770 | +$48,035 |
| +5% | $1,186.50 (3.6σ) | $-27,940 | $36,289 | +$201,604 | +$48,035 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,125 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.85/sh | -$10,425 cycle -$10,140 | 61% surv 53% | +$21,524 SAFE cap gain +$186,839 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,172 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.84/sh | +$919 cycle +$1,204 | 71% surv 62% | +$57,760 SAFE cap gain +$223,075 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,069/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $349/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,448 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,113.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,114-1,125.84 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,125.84 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,125.00 (3.1σ) | $285 | $31,949 | +$197,264 | +$45,510 |
| +2.5% | $1,153.12 (3.4σ) | $-13,778 | $32,779 | +$198,094 | +$45,510 |
| +5% | $1,181.25 (3.6σ) | $-27,840 | $33,609 | +$198,924 | +$45,510 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,120 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.66/sh | -$10,329 cycle -$10,029 | 61% surv 53% | +$18,987 SAFE cap gain +$184,302 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,167 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.98/sh | +$988 cycle +$1,288 | 71% surv 62% | +$55,196 SAFE cap gain +$220,511 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $405/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,448 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,108.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,109-1,120.87 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,120.87 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,120.00 (3.1σ) | $300 | $29,317 | +$194,632 | +$43,025 |
| +2.5% | $1,148.00 (3.3σ) | $-13,700 | $30,143 | +$195,458 | +$43,025 |
| +5% | $1,176.00 (3.6σ) | $-27,700 | $30,969 | +$196,284 | +$43,025 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,115 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.47/sh | -$10,234 cycle -$9,914 | 61% surv 53% | +$16,455 SAFE cap gain +$181,770 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,162 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.11/sh | +$1,056 cycle +$1,376 | 71% surv 62% | +$52,637 SAFE cap gain +$217,952 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $480/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,448 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,103.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,104-1,115.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,115.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,115.00 (3.0σ) | $320 | $26,689 | +$192,004 | +$40,545 |
| +2.5% | $1,142.88 (3.3σ) | $-13,618 | $27,512 | +$192,827 | +$40,545 |
| +5% | $1,170.75 (3.5σ) | $-27,555 | $28,334 | +$193,649 | +$40,545 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,110 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.28/sh | -$10,139 cycle -$9,749 | 61% surv 53% | +$13,972 SAFE cap gain +$179,287 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,157 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.25/sh | +$1,123 cycle +$1,513 | 71% surv 62% | +$50,126 SAFE cap gain +$215,441 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,462/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $742/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,423 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,098.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,099-1,110.99 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,110.99 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,110.00 (3.0σ) | $390 | $24,112 | +$189,427 | +$38,115 |
| +2.5% | $1,137.75 (3.2σ) | $-13,485 | $24,930 | +$190,245 | +$38,115 |
| +5% | $1,165.50 (3.5σ) | $-27,360 | $25,749 | +$191,064 | +$38,115 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,105 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.09/sh | -$10,045 cycle -$9,690 | 61% surv 53% | +$11,384 SAFE cap gain +$176,699 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,152 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.38/sh | +$1,189 cycle +$1,544 | 71% surv 62% | +$47,510 SAFE cap gain +$212,825 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,331/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $611/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,448 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,093.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,094-1,105.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,105.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,105.00 (3.0σ) | $355 | $21,429 | +$186,744 | +$35,580 |
| +2.5% | $1,132.62 (3.2σ) | $-13,458 | $22,244 | +$187,559 | +$35,580 |
| +5% | $1,160.25 (3.4σ) | $-27,270 | $23,059 | +$188,374 | +$35,580 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,100 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$19.90/sh | -$9,951 cycle -$9,451 | 61% surv 53% | +$8,975 SAFE cap gain +$174,290 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,147 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.51/sh | +$1,254 cycle +$1,754 | 71% surv 62% | +$45,073 SAFE cap gain +$210,388 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($27,317/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($54,634/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,155/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($74,300) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($419,300) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-165,353 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,089.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,089-1,101.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,101.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,100.00 (2.9σ) | $500 | $18,927 | +$184,242 | +$33,225 |
| +2.5% | $1,127.50 (3.1σ) | $-13,250 | $19,738 | +$185,053 | +$33,225 |
| +5% | $1,155.00 (3.4σ) | $-27,000 | $20,549 | +$185,864 | +$33,225 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$962 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$6.05/sh | +$1,211 cycle +$2,561 [-$429…+$2,522] · 65% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$59,237 NOT cap gain +$45,911 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$972 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.82/sh | +$365 cycle +$1,715 [-$1,414…+$1,647] · 47% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$58,008 NOT cap gain +$47,140 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$997 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$5.04/sh | -$1,007 cycle +$343 [-$3,074…+$162] · 26% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$54,196 NOT cap gain +$50,952 |
| budget: banked $1,350 debit $1,007 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$343 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $12,280/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$915 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$13.58/sh | -$2,716 cycle -$1,366 [-$4,688…-$1,511] · 10% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$72,913 NOT cap gain +$32,235 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,062/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -54% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 23% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,412/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$68,047 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 136.1% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 34.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,243 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $905.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $906-922.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $922.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $915.00 (1.4σ) | $1,350 | $-70,197 | +$34,951 | +$1,176 |
| +2.5% | $937.87 (1.6σ) | $-3,225 | $-70,028 | +$35,120 | -$3,399 |
| +5% | $960.75 (1.7σ) | $-7,800 | $-69,859 | +$35,289 | -$7,974 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-59,650 | $-67,940 | +$37,208 | -$59,824 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$917 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$8.86/sh | +$1,772 cycle +$3,882 [+$102…+$2,622] · 77% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$67,248 NOT cap gain +$37,900 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$937 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.27/sh | +$455 cycle +$2,565 [-$1,797…+$1,012] · 39% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$64,418 NOT cap gain +$40,730 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$982 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$9.70/sh | -$1,940 cycle +$170 [-$4,722…-$1,545] · 11% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$57,480 NOT cap gain +$47,668 |
| budget: banked $2,110 debit $1,940 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $10,191/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$880 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$12.52/sh | -$2,504 cycle -$394 [-$5,018…-$2,013] · 8% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$79,200 NOT cap gain +$25,948 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,912/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -28% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,262/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$74,287 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 148.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 37.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,253 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $871.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $871-891.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $891.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $880.00 (1.1σ) | $2,110 | $-76,696 | +$28,452 | +$1,936 |
| +2.5% | $902.00 (1.3σ) | $-2,290 | $-76,533 | +$28,615 | -$2,464 |
| +5% | $924.00 (1.4σ) | $-6,690 | $-76,371 | +$28,777 | -$6,864 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-65,890 | $-74,180 | +$30,968 | -$66,064 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$887 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$9.20/sh | +$1,840 cycle +$4,910 [+$81…+$2,344] · 76% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$72,443 NOT cap gain +$32,705 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$907 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.59/sh | +$518 cycle +$3,588 [-$1,776…+$779] · 36% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$69,616 NOT cap gain +$35,532 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$850 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$11.64/sh | -$2,329 cycle +$741 [-$4,875…-$2,163] · 8% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$84,287 NOT cap gain +$20,861 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$977 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$14.72/sh | -$2,944 cycle +$126 [-$5,930…-$3,028] · 4% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$58,561 NOT cap gain +$46,587 |
| budget: banked $3,070 debit $2,944 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$126 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $8,060/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,512/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,862/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$79,327 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 158.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 40.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,258 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $841.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $842-865.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $865.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $850.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,070 | $-81,958 | +$23,190 | +$2,896 |
| +2.5% | $871.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,180 | $-81,801 | +$23,347 | -$1,354 |
| +5% | $892.50 (1.2σ) | $-5,430 | $-81,644 | +$23,504 | -$5,604 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-70,930 | $-79,220 | +$25,928 | -$71,104 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$832 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$9.63/sh | +$1,926 cycle +$7,826 [-$305…+$1,199] · 66% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$80,934 NOT cap gain +$24,214 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$852 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$3.02/sh | +$603 cycle +$6,503 [-$2,151…-$349] · 20% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$78,108 NOT cap gain +$27,040 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$795 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$10.12/sh | -$2,024 cycle +$3,876 [-$5,083…-$3,065] · 3% credit | 61% surv 53% | -$92,559 NOT cap gain +$12,589 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,037 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$28.00/sh | -$5,600 cycle +$300 [-$10,147…-$7,107] | 90% surv 90% | -$45,942 NOT cap gain +$59,206 |
| budget: banked $5,900 debit $5,600 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$300 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,795/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $22,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $21,475/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$87,497 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 175.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 44.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,263 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $787.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $787-825.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $825.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $795.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,900 | $-90,535 | +$14,613 | +$5,726 |
| +2.5% | $814.87 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,925 | $-90,388 | +$14,760 | +$1,751 |
| +5% | $834.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,050 | $-90,241 | +$14,907 | -$2,224 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-79,100 | $-87,390 | +$17,758 | -$79,274 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,290 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$27.65/sh | -$5,531 cycle -$5,466 | 60% surv 52% | +$762 SAFE cap gain +$105,910 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,317 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.77/sh | +$154 cycle +$218 | 69% surv 58% | +$12,048 SAFE cap gain +$117,196 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $242/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-408/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,151 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,277.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,277-1,290.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,290.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,290.00 (4.5σ) | $65 | $6,292 | +$111,440 | +$13,891 |
| +2.5% | $1,322.25 (4.8σ) | $-6,385 | $6,531 | +$111,679 | +$13,891 |
| +5% | $1,354.50 (5.1σ) | $-12,835 | $6,770 | +$111,918 | +$13,891 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,280 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$27.21/sh | -$5,443 cycle -$5,374 | 61% surv 52% | -$1,220 NOT cap gain +$103,928 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,307 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.22/sh | +$245 cycle +$313 | 69% surv 58% | +$10,069 SAFE cap gain +$115,217 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $256/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-394/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,152 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,267.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,267-1,280.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,280.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,280.00 (4.4σ) | $68 | $4,222 | +$109,370 | +$11,894 |
| +2.5% | $1,312.00 (4.7σ) | $-6,332 | $4,459 | +$109,607 | +$11,894 |
| +5% | $1,344.00 (5.0σ) | $-12,732 | $4,696 | +$109,844 | +$11,894 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,270 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$26.78/sh | -$5,355 cycle -$5,283 | 61% surv 52% | -$3,203 NOT cap gain +$101,945 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,297 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.67/sh | +$334 cycle +$406 | 69% surv 58% | +$8,088 SAFE cap gain +$113,236 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $271/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-379/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,152 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,257.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,257-1,270.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,270.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,270.00 (4.3σ) | $72 | $2,152 | +$107,300 | +$9,898 |
| +2.5% | $1,301.75 (4.6σ) | $-6,278 | $2,387 | +$107,535 | +$9,898 |
| +5% | $1,333.50 (4.9σ) | $-12,628 | $2,622 | +$107,770 | +$9,898 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,260 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$26.34/sh | -$5,269 cycle -$5,195 | 61% surv 52% | -$5,189 NOT cap gain +$99,959 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,287 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.11/sh | +$422 cycle +$496 | 69% surv 58% | +$6,103 SAFE cap gain +$111,251 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $278/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-372/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$323 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 0.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 0.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,152 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,247.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,247-1,260.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,260.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,260.00 (4.3σ) | $74 | $80 | +$105,228 | +$7,900 |
| +2.5% | $1,291.50 (4.5σ) | $-6,226 | $313 | +$105,461 | +$7,900 |
| +5% | $1,323.00 (4.8σ) | $-12,526 | $546 | +$105,694 | +$7,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,250 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$25.92/sh | -$5,183 cycle -$5,105 | 61% surv 52% | -$7,173 NOT cap gain +$97,975 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,277 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.54/sh | +$508 cycle +$585 | 69% surv 58% | +$4,119 SAFE cap gain +$109,267 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $292/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-358/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,319 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 4.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 1.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,152 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,237.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,238-1,250.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,250.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,250.00 (4.2σ) | $78 | $-1,990 | +$103,158 | +$5,904 |
| +2.5% | $1,281.25 (4.4σ) | $-6,172 | $-1,759 | +$103,389 | +$5,904 |
| +5% | $1,312.50 (4.7σ) | $-12,422 | $-1,528 | +$103,620 | +$5,904 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,240 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$25.49/sh | -$5,098 cycle -$5,068 | 61% surv 52% | -$9,210 NOT cap gain +$95,938 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,267 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.96/sh | +$592 cycle +$622 | 69% surv 59% | +$2,081 SAFE cap gain +$107,229 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-538/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,367 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 8.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 2.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,202 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,227.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,228-1,240.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,240.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,240.00 (4.1σ) | $30 | $-4,112 | +$101,036 | +$3,856 |
| +2.5% | $1,271.00 (4.4σ) | $-6,170 | $-3,883 | +$101,265 | +$3,856 |
| +5% | $1,302.00 (4.6σ) | $-12,370 | $-3,653 | +$101,495 | +$3,856 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,230 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$25.07/sh | -$5,014 cycle -$4,980 | 61% surv 52% | -$11,196 NOT cap gain +$93,952 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,257 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$3.37/sh | +$674 cycle +$708 | 69% surv 59% | +$94 SAFE cap gain +$105,242 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $128/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-522/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,363 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 12.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 3.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,202 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,217.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,218-1,230.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,230.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,230.00 (4.0σ) | $34 | $-6,182 | +$98,966 | +$1,860 |
| +2.5% | $1,260.75 (4.3σ) | $-6,116 | $-5,955 | +$99,193 | +$1,860 |
| +5% | $1,291.50 (4.5σ) | $-12,266 | $-5,727 | +$99,421 | +$1,860 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,220 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$24.65/sh | -$4,930 cycle -$4,892 | 61% surv 52% | -$13,182 NOT cap gain +$91,966 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,247 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$3.78/sh | +$755 cycle +$793 | 69% surv 59% | -$1,895 NOT cap gain +$103,253 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,257 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.13/sh | -$26 cycle +$12 | 70% surv 60% | -$602 NOT cap gain +$104,546 |
| budget: banked $38 debit $26 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $18,569/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $142/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-508/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,359 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 16.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 4.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,203 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,207.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,208-1,220.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,220.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $38 | $-8,252 | +$96,896 | -$136 |
| +2.5% | $1,250.50 (4.2σ) | $-6,062 | $-8,026 | +$97,122 | -$136 |
| +5% | $1,281.00 (4.4σ) | $-12,162 | $-7,801 | +$97,347 | -$136 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,210 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$24.23/sh | -$4,847 cycle -$4,803 | 61% surv 52% | -$15,167 NOT cap gain +$89,981 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,247 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$54 cycle +$98 | 70% surv 61% | -$2,590 NOT cap gain +$102,558 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $165/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-485/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,353 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 20.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 5.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,202 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,197.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,198-1,210.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,210.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,210.00 (3.8σ) | $44 | $-10,320 | +$94,828 | -$130 |
| +2.5% | $1,240.25 (4.1σ) | $-6,006 | $-10,096 | +$95,052 | -$2,130 |
| +5% | $1,270.50 (4.4σ) | $-12,056 | $-9,872 | +$95,276 | -$2,130 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,200 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$23.82/sh | -$4,765 cycle -$4,685 | 61% surv 52% | -$17,123 NOT cap gain +$88,025 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,237 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.66/sh | +$133 cycle +$213 | 70% surv 61% | -$4,550 NOT cap gain +$100,598 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-350/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,317 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 24.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 6.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,169 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,188.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,188-1,200.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,200.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,200.00 (3.8σ) | $80 | $-12,358 | +$92,790 | -$94 |
| +2.5% | $1,230.00 (4.0σ) | $-5,920 | $-12,136 | +$93,012 | -$4,094 |
| +5% | $1,260.00 (4.3σ) | $-11,920 | $-11,914 | +$93,234 | -$4,094 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,190 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$23.42/sh | -$4,683 cycle -$4,629 | 61% surv 52% | -$19,141 NOT cap gain +$86,007 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,227 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.05/sh | +$209 cycle +$263 | 70% surv 61% | -$6,573 NOT cap gain +$98,575 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $203/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-448/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,343 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 28.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 7.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,202 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,178.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,178-1,190.54 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,190.54 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,190.00 (3.7σ) | $54 | $-14,458 | +$90,690 | -$120 |
| +2.5% | $1,219.75 (3.9σ) | $-5,896 | $-14,238 | +$90,910 | -$6,070 |
| +5% | $1,249.50 (4.2σ) | $-11,846 | $-14,018 | +$91,130 | -$6,120 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,180 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$23.01/sh | -$4,602 cycle -$4,542 | 61% surv 52% | -$21,128 NOT cap gain +$84,020 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,227 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$40 cycle +$100 | 70% surv 62% | -$6,736 NOT cap gain +$98,412 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $225/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-425/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,337 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 32.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 8.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,186 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,168.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,168-1,180.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,180.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,180.00 (3.6σ) | $60 | $-16,526 | +$88,622 | -$114 |
| +2.5% | $1,209.50 (3.8σ) | $-5,840 | $-16,308 | +$88,840 | -$6,014 |
| +5% | $1,239.00 (4.1σ) | $-11,740 | $-16,090 | +$89,058 | -$8,114 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,170 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$22.61/sh | -$4,522 cycle -$4,454 | 61% surv 52% | -$23,114 NOT cap gain +$82,034 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,217 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.52/sh | +$103 cycle +$171 | 70% surv 62% | -$8,739 NOT cap gain +$96,409 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $255/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-395/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,329 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 36.7% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 9.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,202 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,158.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,158-1,170.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,170.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,170.00 (3.5σ) | $68 | $-18,592 | +$86,556 | -$106 |
| +2.5% | $1,199.25 (3.8σ) | $-5,782 | $-18,376 | +$86,772 | -$5,956 |
| +5% | $1,228.50 (4.0σ) | $-11,632 | $-18,159 | +$86,989 | -$10,106 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,160 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$22.21/sh | -$4,443 cycle -$4,367 | 61% surv 53% | -$25,101 NOT cap gain +$80,047 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,207 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$165 cycle +$241 | 70% surv 62% | -$10,744 NOT cap gain +$94,404 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $285/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-365/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,321 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 40.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 10.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,201 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,148.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,148-1,160.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,160.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,160.00 (3.4σ) | $76 | $-20,658 | +$84,490 | -$98 |
| +2.5% | $1,189.00 (3.7σ) | $-5,724 | $-20,444 | +$84,704 | -$5,898 |
| +5% | $1,218.00 (3.9σ) | $-11,524 | $-20,229 | +$84,919 | -$11,698 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-11,924 | $-20,214 | +$84,934 | -$12,098 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,150 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$21.82/sh | -$4,364 cycle -$4,256 | 61% surv 53% | -$27,064 NOT cap gain +$78,084 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,197 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.12/sh | +$224 cycle +$332 | 70% surv 62% | -$12,726 NOT cap gain +$92,422 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $405/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-245/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,289 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 44.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 11.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,185 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,138.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,138-1,150.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,150.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,150.00 (3.3σ) | $108 | $-22,700 | +$82,448 | -$66 |
| +2.5% | $1,178.75 (3.6σ) | $-5,642 | $-22,487 | +$82,661 | -$5,816 |
| +5% | $1,207.50 (3.8σ) | $-11,392 | $-22,275 | +$82,873 | -$11,566 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-13,892 | $-22,182 | +$82,966 | -$14,066 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,140 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$21.43/sh | -$4,286 cycle -$4,164 | 61% surv 53% | -$29,046 NOT cap gain +$76,102 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,187 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.41/sh | +$283 cycle +$405 | 70% surv 62% | -$14,727 NOT cap gain +$90,421 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $458/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-192/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,275 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 48.5% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 12.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,188 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,128.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,129-1,140.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,140.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,140.00 (3.3σ) | $122 | $-24,760 | +$80,388 | -$52 |
| +2.5% | $1,168.50 (3.5σ) | $-5,578 | $-24,549 | +$80,599 | -$5,752 |
| +5% | $1,197.00 (3.7σ) | $-11,278 | $-24,338 | +$80,810 | -$11,452 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-15,878 | $-24,168 | +$80,980 | -$16,052 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,135 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$21.23/sh | -$4,247 cycle -$4,145 | 61% surv 53% | -$30,064 NOT cap gain +$75,084 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,182 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.56/sh | +$311 cycle +$413 | 70% surv 62% | -$15,756 NOT cap gain +$89,392 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $382/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-268/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,295 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 50.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 12.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,201 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,123.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,124-1,135.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,135.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,135.00 (3.2σ) | $102 | $-25,817 | +$79,331 | -$72 |
| +2.5% | $1,163.38 (3.5σ) | $-5,573 | $-25,607 | +$79,541 | -$5,747 |
| +5% | $1,191.75 (3.7σ) | $-11,248 | $-25,397 | +$79,751 | -$11,422 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-16,898 | $-25,188 | +$79,960 | -$17,072 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,130 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$21.04/sh | -$4,208 cycle -$4,084 | 61% surv 53% | -$31,041 NOT cap gain +$74,107 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,177 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.70/sh | +$340 cycle +$464 | 70% surv 62% | -$16,743 NOT cap gain +$88,405 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $465/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-185/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,273 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 52.5% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 13.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,191 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,118.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,119-1,130.84 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,130.84 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,130.00 (3.2σ) | $124 | $-26,832 | +$78,316 | -$50 |
| +2.5% | $1,158.25 (3.4σ) | $-5,526 | $-26,623 | +$78,525 | -$5,700 |
| +5% | $1,186.50 (3.6σ) | $-11,176 | $-26,414 | +$78,734 | -$11,350 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-17,876 | $-26,166 | +$78,982 | -$18,050 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,125 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.85/sh | -$4,170 cycle -$4,056 | 61% surv 53% | -$32,049 NOT cap gain +$73,099 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,172 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.84/sh | +$368 cycle +$482 | 71% surv 62% | -$17,762 NOT cap gain +$87,386 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $427/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-223/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,283 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 54.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 13.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,201 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,113.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,114-1,125.84 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,125.84 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,125.00 (3.1σ) | $114 | $-27,879 | +$77,269 | -$60 |
| +2.5% | $1,153.12 (3.4σ) | $-5,511 | $-27,671 | +$77,477 | -$5,685 |
| +5% | $1,181.25 (3.6σ) | $-11,136 | $-27,463 | +$77,685 | -$11,310 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-18,886 | $-27,176 | +$77,972 | -$19,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,120 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.66/sh | -$4,132 cycle -$4,012 | 61% surv 53% | -$33,042 NOT cap gain +$72,106 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,167 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.98/sh | +$395 cycle +$515 | 71% surv 62% | -$18,765 NOT cap gain +$86,383 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-200/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,277 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 56.6% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 14.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,201 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,108.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,109-1,120.87 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,120.87 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,120.00 (3.1σ) | $120 | $-28,910 | +$76,238 | -$54 |
| +2.5% | $1,148.00 (3.3σ) | $-5,480 | $-28,703 | +$76,445 | -$5,654 |
| +5% | $1,176.00 (3.6σ) | $-11,080 | $-28,496 | +$76,652 | -$11,254 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-19,880 | $-28,170 | +$76,978 | -$20,054 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,115 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.47/sh | -$4,094 cycle -$3,966 | 61% surv 53% | -$34,033 NOT cap gain +$71,115 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,162 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.11/sh | +$422 cycle +$550 | 71% surv 62% | -$19,767 NOT cap gain +$85,381 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-170/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,269 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 58.5% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 14.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,201 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,103.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,104-1,115.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,115.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,115.00 (3.0σ) | $128 | $-29,939 | +$75,209 | -$46 |
| +2.5% | $1,142.88 (3.3σ) | $-5,447 | $-29,733 | +$75,415 | -$5,621 |
| +5% | $1,170.75 (3.5σ) | $-11,022 | $-29,527 | +$75,621 | -$11,196 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-20,872 | $-29,162 | +$75,986 | -$21,046 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,110 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.28/sh | -$4,056 cycle -$3,900 | 61% surv 53% | -$35,004 NOT cap gain +$70,144 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,157 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.25/sh | +$449 cycle +$605 | 71% surv 62% | -$20,749 NOT cap gain +$84,399 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $585/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-65/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,241 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 60.5% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 15.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,191 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,098.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,099-1,110.99 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,110.99 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,110.00 (3.0σ) | $156 | $-30,948 | +$74,200 | -$18 |
| +2.5% | $1,137.75 (3.2σ) | $-5,394 | $-30,743 | +$74,405 | -$5,568 |
| +5% | $1,165.50 (3.5σ) | $-10,944 | $-30,537 | +$74,611 | -$11,118 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-21,844 | $-30,134 | +$75,014 | -$22,018 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,105 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$20.09/sh | -$4,018 cycle -$3,876 | 61% surv 53% | -$36,017 NOT cap gain +$69,131 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,152 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.38/sh | +$476 cycle +$618 | 71% surv 62% | -$21,774 NOT cap gain +$83,374 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $532/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-118/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,255 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 62.5% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 15.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,201 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,093.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,094-1,105.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,105.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,105.00 (3.0σ) | $142 | $-31,999 | +$73,149 | -$32 |
| +2.5% | $1,132.62 (3.2σ) | $-5,383 | $-31,795 | +$73,353 | -$5,557 |
| +5% | $1,160.25 (3.4σ) | $-10,908 | $-31,590 | +$73,558 | -$11,082 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-22,858 | $-31,148 | +$74,000 | -$23,032 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,100 | 12 Aug 2026 | 9d left | -$19.90/sh | -$3,981 cycle -$3,781 | 61% surv 53% | -$36,959 NOT cap gain +$68,189 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,147 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.51/sh | +$502 cycle +$702 | 71% surv 62% | -$22,727 NOT cap gain +$82,421 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($10,927/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($21,854/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $100/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,197 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 64.4% |
| … as % of ML ($198,000) | 16.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-105,163 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,089.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,089-1,101.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,101.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,100.00 (2.9σ) | $200 | $-32,978 | +$72,170 | +$26 |
| +2.5% | $1,127.50 (3.1σ) | $-5,300 | $-32,775 | +$72,373 | -$5,474 |
| +5% | $1,155.00 (3.4σ) | $-10,800 | $-32,571 | +$72,577 | -$10,974 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (3.9σ) | $-23,800 | $-32,090 | +$73,058 | -$23,974 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.70/sh | +$350 cycle +$610 [+$223…+$443] · 98% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$10,825 NOT cap gain +$3,080 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.49/sh | +$243 cycle +$503 [+$59…+$325] · 84% credit | 70% surv 62% | -$9,811 NOT cap gain +$4,094 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$101 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$113 cycle +$373 [-$85…+$186] · 58% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$9,491 NOT cap gain +$4,414 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$99 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$67 cycle +$327 [-$105…+$126] · 50% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$10,437 NOT cap gain +$3,468 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.35/sh | -$177 cycle +$83 [-$441…-$122] · 15% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$8,881 NOT cap gain +$5,024 |
| budget: banked $260 debit $177 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,310/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $975/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | -22% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $714/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,794 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 72.4% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 34.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,000 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $97-98.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $98.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $260 | $-11,175 | +$2,730 | +$255 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (1.3σ) | $-965 | $-11,297 | +$2,608 | -$970 |
| +5% | $102.90 (1.7σ) | $-2,190 | $-11,420 | +$2,485 | -$2,195 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-8,010 | $-12,002 | +$1,903 | -$5,745 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$96 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.67/sh | +$335 cycle +$695 [+$176…+$333] · 98% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$11,640 NOT cap gain +$2,265 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$98 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.43/sh | +$214 cycle +$574 [-$9…+$197] · 73% credit | 70% surv 62% | -$10,640 NOT cap gain +$3,265 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$84 cycle +$444 [-$157…+$51] · 34% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$10,320 NOT cap gain +$3,585 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$97 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.11/sh | +$54 cycle +$414 [-$147…+$23] · 29% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$11,250 NOT cap gain +$2,655 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.66/sh | -$330 cycle +$30 [-$671…-$409] · 3% credit | 79% surv 76% | -$9,384 NOT cap gain +$4,521 |
| budget: banked $360 debit $330 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$30 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $988/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,350/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,089/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,694 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 79.1% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 37.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,035 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $95.04 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $95-96.98 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.98 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $96.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $360 | $-11,975 | +$1,930 | +$355 |
| +2.5% | $98.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-840 | $-12,095 | +$1,810 | -$845 |
| +5% | $100.80 (1.3σ) | $-2,040 | $-12,215 | +$1,690 | -$2,045 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-8,910 | $-12,902 | +$1,003 | -$6,645 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.76/sh | +$304 cycle +$1,016 [+$90…+$198] · 93% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$11,997 NOT cap gain +$1,908 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$93 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.63/sh | +$250 cycle +$962 [+$72…+$163] · 92% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$12,721 NOT cap gain +$1,184 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$96 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$35 cycle +$747 [-$252…-$98] · 10% credit | 73% surv 67% | -$11,366 NOT cap gain +$2,539 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$94 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$27 cycle +$739 [-$210…-$81] · 10% credit | 68% surv 60% | -$12,274 NOT cap gain +$1,631 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.37/sh | -$550 cycle +$162 [-$1,107…-$762] | 91% surv 91% | -$7,901 NOT cap gain +$6,004 |
| budget: banked $712 debit $550 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$162 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $234/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,670/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | +114% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 107% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,411/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,331 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 69.0% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 32.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.7 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-11,206 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $92.07 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $92-94.98 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.98 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $93.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $712 | $-12,972 | +$933 | +$708 |
| +2.5% | $95.32 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-218 | $-12,855 | +$1,050 | -$222 |
| +5% | $97.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,148 | $-12,739 | +$1,166 | -$1,152 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-7,904 | $-12,349 | +$1,556 | -$6,092 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$105 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.81/sh | +$405 cycle +$435 [+$443…+$713] · 100% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$7,849 NOT cap gain +$6,056 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$106 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$118 cycle +$148 [+$113…+$406] · 91% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$7,466 NOT cap gain +$6,439 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$109 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$33 [-$20…+$339] · 73% credit | 73% surv 67% | -$6,231 NOT cap gain +$7,674 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$110 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.01/sh | -$3 cycle +$27 [-$25…+$328] · 71% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$6,012 NOT cap gain +$7,893 |
| budget: banked $30 debit $3 (8% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$27 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,851/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$110 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.19/sh | -$96 cycle -$66 [-$121…+$234] · 61% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$5,880 NOT cap gain +$8,025 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | -91% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-148/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,524 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 48.3% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 22.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-13,972 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $103.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $104-105.19 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $105.19 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $105.00 (2.0σ) | $30 | $-8,255 | +$5,650 | +$25 |
| +2.5% | $107.62 (2.5σ) | $-1,282 | $-8,386 | +$5,519 | -$1,287 |
| +5% | $110.25 (2.9σ) | $-2,595 | $-8,517 | +$5,388 | -$2,475 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-4,740 | $-8,732 | +$5,173 | -$2,475 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$104 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.79/sh | +$397 cycle +$437 [+$398…+$678] · 99% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$8,298 NOT cap gain +$5,607 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.41/sh | +$204 cycle +$244 [+$151…+$506] · 92% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$6,920 NOT cap gain +$6,985 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$105 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.22/sh | +$110 cycle +$150 [+$56…+$366] · 84% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$7,914 NOT cap gain +$5,991 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$109 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.03/sh | -$17 cycle +$23 [-$98…+$272] · 61% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$6,466 NOT cap gain +$7,439 |
| budget: banked $40 debit $17 (41% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,791/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-111/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,014 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 51.9% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 24.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-13,940 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $102.96 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $103-104.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $104.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $104.00 (1.9σ) | $40 | $-8,695 | +$5,210 | +$35 |
| +2.5% | $106.60 (2.3σ) | $-1,260 | $-8,825 | +$5,080 | -$1,265 |
| +5% | $109.20 (2.7σ) | $-2,560 | $-8,955 | +$4,950 | -$2,565 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-5,230 | $-9,222 | +$4,683 | -$2,965 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$103 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.78/sh | +$389 cycle +$429 [+$388…+$667] · 99% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$8,756 NOT cap gain +$5,149 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$106 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.38/sh | +$188 cycle +$228 [+$154…+$488] · 90% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$7,386 NOT cap gain +$6,519 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$104 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.21/sh | +$103 cycle +$143 [+$65…+$357] · 85% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$8,371 NOT cap gain +$5,534 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.04/sh | -$22 cycle +$18 [-$86…+$268] · 61% credit | 73% surv 67% | -$7,146 NOT cap gain +$6,759 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$108 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.06/sh | -$30 cycle +$10 [-$93…+$256] · 59% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$6,929 NOT cap gain +$6,976 |
| budget: banked $40 debit $30 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$10 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,731/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-111/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,514 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 55.6% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 26.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,048 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $101.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $102-103.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $103.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $103.00 (1.7σ) | $40 | $-9,145 | +$4,760 | +$35 |
| +2.5% | $105.57 (2.1σ) | $-1,247 | $-9,273 | +$4,632 | -$1,252 |
| +5% | $108.15 (2.5σ) | $-2,535 | $-9,402 | +$4,503 | -$2,540 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-5,730 | $-9,722 | +$4,183 | -$3,465 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$102 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$381 cycle +$431 [+$361…+$646] · 99% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$9,204 NOT cap gain +$4,701 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$172 cycle +$222 [+$120…+$449] · 89% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$7,842 NOT cap gain +$6,063 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$103 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$96 cycle +$146 [+$45…+$330] · 82% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$8,818 NOT cap gain +$5,087 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$107 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.09/sh | -$44 cycle +$6 [-$131…+$217] · 56% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$7,383 NOT cap gain +$6,522 |
| budget: banked $50 debit $44 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,673/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | -85% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-74/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,004 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 59.2% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 28.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,048 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $100.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $101-102.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $102.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $102.00 (1.5σ) | $50 | $-9,585 | +$4,320 | +$45 |
| +2.5% | $104.55 (2.0σ) | $-1,225 | $-9,712 | +$4,193 | -$1,230 |
| +5% | $107.10 (2.4σ) | $-2,500 | $-9,840 | +$4,065 | -$2,505 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-6,220 | $-10,212 | +$3,693 | -$3,955 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$101 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.75/sh | +$373 cycle +$413 [+$317…+$539] · 99% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$9,672 NOT cap gain +$4,233 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$157 cycle +$197 [+$46…+$338] · 81% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$8,317 NOT cap gain +$5,588 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$102 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$88 cycle +$128 [-$11…+$239] · 73% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$9,286 NOT cap gain +$4,619 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-111/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,514 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 63.0% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 29.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,170 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.99 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $100-101.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $101.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $101.00 (1.4σ) | $40 | $-10,045 | +$3,860 | +$35 |
| +2.5% | $103.52 (1.8σ) | $-1,222 | $-10,171 | +$3,734 | -$1,227 |
| +5% | $106.05 (2.2σ) | $-2,485 | $-10,297 | +$3,608 | -$2,490 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-6,730 | $-10,722 | +$3,183 | -$4,465 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$100 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.73/sh | +$365 cycle +$490 [+$288…+$528] · 99% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$10,044 NOT cap gain +$3,861 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$142 cycle +$267 [-$4…+$326] · 74% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$8,697 NOT cap gain +$5,208 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$101 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$81 cycle +$206 [-$43…+$231] · 66% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$9,658 NOT cap gain +$4,247 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.14/sh | -$70 cycle +$55 [-$247…+$105] · 38% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$8,234 NOT cap gain +$5,671 |
| budget: banked $125 debit $70 (56% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,558/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $469/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | -62% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $208/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,929 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 66.0% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 31.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-13,995 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $99.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $99-100.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $100.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $100.00 (1.2σ) | $125 | $-10,410 | +$3,495 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $102.50 (1.6σ) | $-1,125 | $-10,534 | +$3,370 | -$1,130 |
| +5% | $105.00 (2.0σ) | $-2,375 | $-10,660 | +$3,245 | -$2,380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-7,145 | $-11,137 | +$2,768 | -$4,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$99 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.71/sh | +$357 cycle +$497 [+$271…+$509] · 99% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$10,487 NOT cap gain +$3,418 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$102 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$127 cycle +$267 [-$19…+$290] · 70% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$9,147 NOT cap gain +$4,758 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$100 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$74 cycle +$214 [-$51…+$206] · 61% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$10,100 NOT cap gain +$3,805 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.17/sh | -$83 cycle +$57 [-$264…+$61] · 29% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$8,682 NOT cap gain +$5,223 |
| budget: banked $140 debit $83 (59% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$57 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,502/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $525/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | -58% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $264/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,414 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 69.6% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 33.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-13,985 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $98.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $98-99.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $99.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $99.00 (1.1σ) | $140 | $-10,845 | +$3,060 | +$135 |
| +2.5% | $101.47 (1.5σ) | $-1,097 | $-10,968 | +$2,937 | -$1,102 |
| +5% | $103.95 (1.9σ) | $-2,335 | $-11,092 | +$2,813 | -$2,340 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-7,630 | $-11,622 | +$2,283 | -$5,365 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$97 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.68/sh | +$342 cycle +$667 [+$200…+$404] · 98% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$11,217 NOT cap gain +$2,688 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.46/sh | +$229 cycle +$554 [+$28…+$288] · 81% credit | 70% surv 62% | -$10,210 NOT cap gain +$3,695 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$100 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$98 cycle +$423 [-$122…+$152] · 49% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$9,891 NOT cap gain +$4,014 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$98 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.12/sh | +$60 cycle +$385 [-$125…+$101] · 42% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$10,829 NOT cap gain +$3,076 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$103 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.65/sh | -$323 cycle +$2 [-$638…-$314] · 5% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$8,962 NOT cap gain +$4,943 |
| budget: banked $325 debit $323 (99% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,033/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,219/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | -2% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 49% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $958/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,229 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 75.7% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 35.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-14,302 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $96.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $96-98.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $98.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $97.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $325 | $-11,560 | +$2,345 | +$320 |
| +2.5% | $99.42 (1.1σ) | $-887 | $-11,681 | +$2,224 | -$892 |
| +5% | $101.85 (1.5σ) | $-2,100 | $-11,802 | +$2,103 | -$2,105 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-8,445 | $-12,437 | +$1,468 | -$6,180 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.79/sh | +$238 cycle +$637 [+$95…+$187] · 95% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$11,925 NOT cap gain +$1,980 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$94 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.64/sh | +$192 cycle +$591 [+$73…+$150] · 94% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$12,642 NOT cap gain +$1,263 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$34 cycle +$433 [-$154…-$39] · 16% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$11,229 NOT cap gain +$2,676 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$95 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$24 cycle +$423 [-$132…-$36] · 16% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$12,139 NOT cap gain +$1,766 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$105 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.29/sh | -$387 cycle +$12 [-$733…-$517] | 89% surv 88% | -$8,050 NOT cap gain +$5,855 |
| budget: banked $399 debit $387 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $238/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,496/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | +20% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 60% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,239/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,833 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 50.5% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 24.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-8,577 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $93.06 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $93-96.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $94.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $399 | $-12,834 | +$1,071 | +$396 |
| +2.5% | $96.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-306 | $-12,481 | +$1,424 | -$309 |
| +5% | $98.70 (1.0σ) | $-1,011 | $-12,128 | +$1,776 | -$1,014 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-5,763 | $-10,661 | +$3,244 | -$4,404 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.61/sh | +$122 cycle +$552 | 64% surv 52% | -$13,350 NOT cap gain +$555 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$93 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.22/sh | +$44 cycle +$474 | 67% surv 57% | -$13,208 NOT cap gain +$697 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$33 cycle +$463 | 72% surv 65% | -$12,318 NOT cap gain +$1,587 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$104 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.32/sh | -$264 cycle +$166 | 91% surv 90% | -$8,565 NOT cap gain +$5,340 |
| budget: banked $430 debit $264 (61% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$166 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $123/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,612/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | +29% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 64% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,358/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,792 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 35.4% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 16.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-5,613 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $91.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $91-94.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $92.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $430 | $-13,472 | +$433 | +$428 |
| +2.5% | $94.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-30 | $-13,127 | +$778 | -$32 |
| +5% | $96.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-490 | $-12,552 | +$1,354 | -$492 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-4,078 | $-9,429 | +$4,476 | -$3,172 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$91 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.60/sh | +$119 cycle +$623 | 64% surv 52% | -$13,279 NOT cap gain +$626 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.24/sh | +$48 cycle +$552 | 67% surv 57% | -$13,350 NOT cap gain +$555 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$94 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$42 cycle +$546 | 73% surv 65% | -$12,686 NOT cap gain +$1,219 |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$100 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.37/sh | -$273 cycle +$231 | 90% surv 90% | -$10,301 NOT cap gain +$3,604 |
| budget: banked $504 debit $273 (54% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$231 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $154/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,890/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,250/mo) | +51% |
| vs normal income ($2,500/mo) | 76% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,635/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,918 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 36.4% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 17.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-5,715 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $90.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $90-94.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $91.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $504 | $-13,398 | +$507 | +$502 |
| +2.5% | $93.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $49 | $-13,509 | +$396 | +$47 |
| +5% | $95.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-406 | $-12,940 | +$965 | -$408 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (3.6σ) | $-4,204 | $-9,555 | +$4,350 | -$3,298 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$171 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.81/sh | +$905 cycle +$2,455 [-$78…+$1,855] · 73% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$25,872 NOT cap gain +$12,238 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$173 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$172 cycle +$1,722 [-$905…+$1,045] · 50% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$25,480 NOT cap gain +$12,630 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.42/sh | -$208 cycle +$1,342 [-$1,199…+$576] · 39% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$27,377 NOT cap gain +$10,733 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.44/sh | -$1,222 cycle +$328 [-$2,455…-$482] · 17% credit | 77% surv 66% | -$24,624 NOT cap gain +$13,486 |
| budget: banked $1,550 debit $1,222 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$328 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,730/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,812/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,434/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,420 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 143.6% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 31.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,360 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $168.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $168-173.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $173.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $170.00 (1.3σ) | $1,550 | $-27,168 | +$10,942 | +$1,495 |
| +2.5% | $174.25 (1.6σ) | $-575 | $-27,381 | +$10,729 | -$630 |
| +5% | $178.50 (1.9σ) | $-2,700 | $-27,594 | +$10,516 | -$2,755 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-25,450 | $-29,868 | +$8,242 | -$25,505 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$176 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.60/sh | +$799 cycle +$1,914 [-$27…+$2,070] · 75% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$24,163 NOT cap gain +$13,947 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$64 cycle +$1,179 [-$926…+$1,245] · 56% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$23,773 NOT cap gain +$14,337 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$181 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.63/sh | -$313 cycle +$802 [-$1,338…+$810] · 42% credit | 76% surv 62% | -$23,025 NOT cap gain +$15,085 |
| budget: banked $1,115 debit $313 (28% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$802 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,504/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$175 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.63/sh | -$317 cycle +$798 [-$1,239…+$752] · 42% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$25,670 NOT cap gain +$12,440 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,181/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -25% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,803/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,355 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 131.5% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 29.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,240 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $173.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $173-177.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $177.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $175.00 (1.6σ) | $1,115 | $-25,354 | +$12,756 | +$1,060 |
| +2.5% | $179.37 (1.9σ) | $-1,072 | $-25,572 | +$12,538 | -$1,127 |
| +5% | $183.75 (2.2σ) | $-3,260 | $-25,791 | +$12,319 | -$3,315 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-23,385 | $-27,803 | +$10,307 | -$23,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$171 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.81/sh | +$905 cycle +$2,455 [-$78…+$1,855] · 73% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$25,872 NOT cap gain +$12,238 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$173 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$172 cycle +$1,722 [-$905…+$1,045] · 50% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$25,480 NOT cap gain +$12,630 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.42/sh | -$208 cycle +$1,342 [-$1,199…+$576] · 39% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$27,377 NOT cap gain +$10,733 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.44/sh | -$1,222 cycle +$328 [-$2,455…-$482] · 17% credit | 77% surv 66% | -$24,624 NOT cap gain +$13,486 |
| budget: banked $1,550 debit $1,222 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$328 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,730/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,812/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,434/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,420 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 143.6% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 31.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,360 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $168.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $168-173.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $173.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $170.00 (1.3σ) | $1,550 | $-27,168 | +$10,942 | +$1,495 |
| +2.5% | $174.25 (1.6σ) | $-575 | $-27,381 | +$10,729 | -$630 |
| +5% | $178.50 (1.9σ) | $-2,700 | $-27,594 | +$10,516 | -$2,755 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-25,450 | $-29,868 | +$8,242 | -$25,505 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$158 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$38 cycle +$3,638 [-$1,561…-$215] · 21% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$30,705 NOT cap gain +$7,405 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$163 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$26 cycle +$3,626 [-$1,740…-$267] · 20% credit | 76% surv 63% | -$28,076 NOT cap gain +$10,034 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$158 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$3,603 [-$1,562…-$253] · 19% credit | 72% surv 54% | -$30,349 NOT cap gain +$7,761 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$186 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$7.12/sh | -$3,561 cycle +$39 [-$6,207…-$4,187] | 90% surv 88% | -$21,538 NOT cap gain +$16,572 |
| budget: banked $3,600 debit $3,561 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$39 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,187/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +141% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 121% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,122/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,620 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 168.4% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 37.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,360 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $155.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $156-165.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $165.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $157.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,600 | $-30,744 | +$7,366 | +$3,545 |
| +2.5% | $161.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,631 | $-30,940 | +$7,170 | +$1,576 |
| +5% | $165.38 (1.0σ) | $-338 | $-31,137 | +$6,973 | -$392 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-29,650 | $-34,068 | +$4,042 | -$29,705 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$230 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$3.80/sh | -$1,900 cycle -$1,875 | 70% surv 52% | -$3,593 NOT cap gain +$34,517 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $94/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-284/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,650 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $227.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $228-231.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $231.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $230.00 (5.2σ) | $25 | $-1,694 | +$36,416 | +$2,470 |
| +2.5% | $235.75 (5.5σ) | $-2,850 | $-1,981 | +$36,129 | +$2,470 |
| +5% | $241.50 (5.9σ) | $-5,725 | $-2,268 | +$35,842 | +$2,470 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$220 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$3.12/sh | -$1,559 cycle -$1,484 | 71% surv 52% | -$7,703 NOT cap gain +$30,407 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $281/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-97/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$895 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 5.3% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 1.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,222 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $217.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $218-220.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $220.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $220.00 (4.5σ) | $75 | $-6,143 | +$31,967 | +$20 |
| +2.5% | $225.50 (4.9σ) | $-2,675 | $-6,418 | +$31,692 | -$2,480 |
| +5% | $231.00 (5.2σ) | $-5,425 | $-6,694 | +$31,416 | -$2,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$215 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$2.80/sh | -$1,398 cycle -$1,323 | 71% surv 52% | -$9,791 NOT cap gain +$28,319 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $281/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-97/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,395 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 20.0% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 4.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,175 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $212.85 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $213-215.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $215.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $215.00 (4.2σ) | $75 | $-8,393 | +$29,717 | +$20 |
| +2.5% | $220.37 (4.5σ) | $-2,612 | $-8,662 | +$29,448 | -$2,667 |
| +5% | $225.75 (4.9σ) | $-5,300 | $-8,931 | +$29,179 | -$4,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$210 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$2.48/sh | -$1,242 cycle -$1,142 | 71% surv 52% | -$11,860 NOT cap gain +$26,250 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-3/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,870 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 34.5% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 7.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,642 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $207.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $208-211.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $211.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $210.00 (3.9σ) | $100 | $-10,618 | +$27,492 | +$45 |
| +2.5% | $215.25 (4.2σ) | $-2,525 | $-10,881 | +$27,229 | -$2,580 |
| +5% | $220.50 (4.5σ) | $-5,150 | $-11,143 | +$26,967 | -$5,205 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-6,900 | $-11,318 | +$26,792 | -$6,955 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$202 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$2.04/sh | -$1,019 cycle -$844 | 71% surv 52% | -$14,938 NOT cap gain +$23,172 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$203 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$71 cycle +$246 | 72% surv 54% | -$13,456 NOT cap gain +$24,654 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $278/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,545 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 56.1% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 12.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,555 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $200.47 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $200-203.74 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $203.74 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $202.50 (3.4σ) | $175 | $-13,918 | +$24,192 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $207.56 (3.7σ) | $-2,356 | $-14,172 | +$23,938 | -$2,411 |
| +5% | $212.62 (4.0σ) | $-4,888 | $-14,425 | +$23,685 | -$4,942 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-10,575 | $-14,993 | +$23,117 | -$10,630 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$200 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.90/sh | -$948 cycle -$738 | 71% surv 52% | -$15,957 NOT cap gain +$22,153 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$201 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$147 cycle +$357 | 72% surv 54% | -$14,470 NOT cap gain +$23,640 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $788/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $410/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,760 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 63.3% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 14.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,130 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $198.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $198-200.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $200.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $200.00 (3.2σ) | $210 | $-15,008 | +$23,102 | +$155 |
| +2.5% | $205.00 (3.6σ) | $-2,290 | $-15,258 | +$22,852 | -$2,345 |
| +5% | $210.00 (3.9σ) | $-4,790 | $-15,508 | +$22,602 | -$4,845 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-11,790 | $-16,208 | +$21,902 | -$11,845 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$198 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.76/sh | -$878 cycle -$753 | 71% surv 52% | -$17,097 NOT cap gain +$21,013 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$198 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.44/sh | +$222 cycle +$347 | 72% surv 54% | -$15,605 NOT cap gain +$22,505 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $469/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $91/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,095 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 71.1% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 15.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,282 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $195.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $196-198.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $198.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $197.50 (3.1σ) | $125 | $-16,218 | +$21,892 | +$70 |
| +2.5% | $202.44 (3.4σ) | $-2,344 | $-16,465 | +$21,645 | -$2,399 |
| +5% | $207.38 (3.7σ) | $-4,812 | $-16,712 | +$21,398 | -$4,868 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-13,125 | $-17,543 | +$20,567 | -$13,180 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$195 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.62/sh | -$810 cycle -$625 | 71% surv 52% | -$18,094 NOT cap gain +$20,016 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$196 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.59/sh | +$294 cycle +$479 | 72% surv 54% | -$16,598 NOT cap gain +$21,512 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $694/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $316/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,285 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 78.1% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 17.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,280 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $193.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $193-195.71 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $195.71 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $195.00 (2.9σ) | $185 | $-17,283 | +$20,827 | +$130 |
| +2.5% | $199.87 (3.2σ) | $-2,252 | $-17,527 | +$20,583 | -$2,307 |
| +5% | $204.75 (3.5σ) | $-4,690 | $-17,771 | +$20,339 | -$4,745 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-14,315 | $-18,733 | +$19,377 | -$14,370 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$192 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.49/sh | -$743 cycle -$418 | 71% surv 52% | -$19,012 NOT cap gain +$19,098 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$193 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.73/sh | +$364 cycle +$689 | 73% surv 54% | -$17,513 NOT cap gain +$20,597 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,219/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $841/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,395 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 84.7% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 18.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,180 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $190.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $191-193.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $193.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $192.50 (2.8σ) | $325 | $-18,268 | +$19,842 | +$270 |
| +2.5% | $197.31 (3.1σ) | $-2,081 | $-18,509 | +$19,601 | -$2,136 |
| +5% | $202.12 (3.4σ) | $-4,488 | $-18,750 | +$19,360 | -$4,542 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-15,425 | $-19,843 | +$18,267 | -$15,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$191 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.86/sh | +$432 cycle +$832 [+$685…+$2,575] · 86% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$18,495 NOT cap gain +$19,615 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$193 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.62/sh | -$308 cycle +$92 [-$95…+$1,809] · 70% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$18,110 NOT cap gain +$20,000 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $308 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,285/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$190 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.36/sh | -$678 cycle -$278 [-$491…+$1,268] · 54% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$19,997 NOT cap gain +$18,113 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,122/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,570 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 91.6% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 20.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,168 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $188-190.91 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $190.91 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (2.6σ) | $400 | $-19,318 | +$18,792 | +$345 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (2.9σ) | $-1,975 | $-19,556 | +$18,554 | -$2,030 |
| +5% | $199.50 (3.2σ) | $-4,350 | $-19,793 | +$18,317 | -$4,405 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-16,600 | $-21,018 | +$17,092 | -$16,655 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$188 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.23/sh | -$614 cycle -$199 | 71% surv 52% | -$21,043 NOT cap gain +$17,067 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$188 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.00/sh | +$498 cycle +$913 | 73% surv 54% | -$19,539 NOT cap gain +$18,571 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$191 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.48/sh | -$241 cycle +$174 | 74% surv 58% | -$19,153 NOT cap gain +$18,957 |
| budget: banked $415 debit $241 (58% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$174 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,268/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,556/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -72% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,178/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,805 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 98.9% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 21.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,218 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $185.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $186-188.54 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $188.54 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $187.50 (2.4σ) | $415 | $-20,428 | +$17,682 | +$360 |
| +2.5% | $192.19 (2.7σ) | $-1,929 | $-20,663 | +$17,447 | -$1,984 |
| +5% | $196.88 (3.0σ) | $-4,272 | $-20,897 | +$17,213 | -$4,328 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-17,835 | $-22,253 | +$15,857 | -$17,890 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$186 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.12/sh | +$562 cycle +$1,102 [+$140…+$2,720] · 77% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$20,475 NOT cap gain +$17,635 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$188 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.35/sh | -$176 cycle +$364 [-$703…+$1,920] · 64% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$20,088 NOT cap gain +$18,022 |
| budget: banked $540 debit $176 (33% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$364 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,247/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$185 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$1.10/sh | -$552 cycle -$12 [-$1,068…+$1,365] · 51% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$21,980 NOT cap gain +$16,130 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,647/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,930 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 105.5% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 23.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,210 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $183.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $183-186.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $186.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $185.00 (2.3σ) | $540 | $-21,428 | +$16,682 | +$485 |
| +2.5% | $189.62 (2.6σ) | $-1,772 | $-21,660 | +$16,450 | -$1,827 |
| +5% | $194.25 (2.9σ) | $-4,085 | $-21,891 | +$16,219 | -$4,140 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-18,960 | $-23,378 | +$14,732 | -$19,015 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$183 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.25/sh | +$625 cycle +$1,305 [+$334…+$2,580] · 82% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$21,397 NOT cap gain +$16,713 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$188 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.98/sh | -$489 cycle +$191 [-$970…+$1,388] · 51% credit | 76% surv 62% | -$20,261 NOT cap gain +$17,849 |
| budget: banked $680 debit $489 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$191 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,596/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$182 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.98/sh | -$491 cycle +$189 [-$886…+$1,269] · 50% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$22,904 NOT cap gain +$15,206 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,550/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -54% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 23% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,172/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,040 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 112.0% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 24.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,185 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $180.68 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $181-184.01 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $184.01 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $182.50 (2.1σ) | $680 | $-22,414 | +$15,696 | +$625 |
| +2.5% | $187.06 (2.4σ) | $-1,601 | $-22,642 | +$15,468 | -$1,656 |
| +5% | $191.62 (2.7σ) | $-3,882 | $-22,870 | +$15,240 | -$3,938 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-20,070 | $-24,488 | +$13,622 | -$20,125 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$181 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.37/sh | +$685 cycle +$1,465 [+$482…+$2,262] · 85% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$22,362 NOT cap gain +$15,748 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$183 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$52 cycle +$728 [-$411…+$1,457] · 62% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$21,974 NOT cap gain +$16,136 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$180 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.86/sh | -$431 cycle +$349 [-$806…+$919] · 51% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$23,870 NOT cap gain +$14,240 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$186 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.86/sh | -$428 cycle +$352 [-$846…+$1,007] · 50% credit | 76% surv 62% | -$21,225 NOT cap gain +$16,885 |
| budget: banked $780 debit $428 (55% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$352 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,569/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,925/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -48% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,547/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,190 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 118.8% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 26.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,258 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $178.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $178-181.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $181.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $180.00 (2.0σ) | $780 | $-23,438 | +$14,672 | +$725 |
| +2.5% | $184.50 (2.3σ) | $-1,470 | $-23,663 | +$14,447 | -$1,525 |
| +5% | $189.00 (2.5σ) | $-3,720 | $-23,888 | +$14,222 | -$3,775 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-21,220 | $-25,638 | +$12,472 | -$21,275 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.49/sh | +$743 cycle +$1,693 [-$239…+$2,393] · 69% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$23,259 NOT cap gain +$14,851 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$181 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$957 [-$1,114…+$1,599] · 52% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$22,870 NOT cap gain +$15,240 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$183 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.74/sh | -$370 cycle +$580 [-$1,577…+$1,145] · 44% credit | 76% surv 62% | -$22,122 NOT cap gain +$15,988 |
| budget: banked $950 debit $370 (39% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$580 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,538/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$178 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.75/sh | -$373 cycle +$577 [-$1,431…+$1,046] · 43% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$24,767 NOT cap gain +$13,343 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -36% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,184/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,270 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 125.1% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 27.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,252 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $175.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $176-179.69 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $179.69 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $177.50 (1.8σ) | $950 | $-24,394 | +$13,716 | +$895 |
| +2.5% | $181.94 (2.1σ) | $-1,269 | $-24,615 | +$13,495 | -$1,324 |
| +5% | $186.38 (2.4σ) | $-3,488 | $-24,837 | +$13,273 | -$3,542 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-22,300 | $-26,718 | +$11,392 | -$22,355 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$173 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.71/sh | +$853 cycle +$2,193 [-$147…+$1,942] · 71% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$25,009 NOT cap gain +$13,101 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$176 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$119 cycle +$1,459 [-$961…+$1,173] · 51% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$24,618 NOT cap gain +$13,492 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$172 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.52/sh | -$262 cycle +$1,078 [-$1,283…+$684] · 39% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$26,515 NOT cap gain +$11,595 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$181 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.56/sh | -$1,278 cycle +$62 [-$2,644…-$312] · 17% credit | 77% surv 66% | -$23,765 NOT cap gain +$14,345 |
| budget: banked $1,340 debit $1,278 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,766/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | -10% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 45% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,647/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,380 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 137.5% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 30.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,340 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $170.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $171-175.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $175.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $172.50 (1.5σ) | $1,340 | $-26,254 | +$11,856 | +$1,285 |
| +2.5% | $176.81 (1.8σ) | $-816 | $-26,469 | +$11,641 | -$871 |
| +5% | $181.12 (2.0σ) | $-2,972 | $-26,685 | +$11,425 | -$3,028 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-24,410 | $-28,828 | +$9,282 | -$24,465 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$168 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.91/sh | +$955 cycle +$2,730 [-$165…+$1,734] · 71% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$26,722 NOT cap gain +$11,388 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$171 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$223 cycle +$1,998 [-$976…+$940] · 45% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$26,329 NOT cap gain +$11,781 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$168 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.31/sh | -$156 cycle +$1,619 [-$1,270…+$475] · 36% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$28,224 NOT cap gain +$9,886 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.06/sh | -$1,531 cycle +$244 [-$3,079…-$1,004] · 12% credit | 79% surv 70% | -$24,708 NOT cap gain +$13,402 |
| budget: banked $1,775 debit $1,531 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$244 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,086/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,656/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +19% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,278/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,445 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 149.7% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 33.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-38,398 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $165.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $166-171.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $171.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $167.50 (1.2σ) | $1,775 | $-28,068 | +$10,042 | +$1,720 |
| +2.5% | $171.69 (1.4σ) | $-319 | $-28,278 | +$9,832 | -$374 |
| +5% | $175.88 (1.7σ) | $-2,412 | $-28,487 | +$9,623 | -$2,468 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-26,475 | $-30,893 | +$7,217 | -$26,530 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$166 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.01/sh | +$803 cycle +$2,563 [-$215…+$1,199] · 67% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$28,003 NOT cap gain +$10,107 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$168 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.54/sh | +$217 cycle +$1,977 [-$872…+$572] · 40% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$27,464 NOT cap gain +$10,646 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$165 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.21/sh | -$84 cycle +$1,676 [-$1,086…+$225] · 33% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$29,282 NOT cap gain +$8,828 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$3.63/sh | -$1,451 cycle +$309 [-$2,859…-$1,218] · 6% credit | 81% surv 73% | -$24,632 NOT cap gain +$13,478 |
| budget: banked $1,760 debit $1,451 (82% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$309 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $4,389/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +18% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,244/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,016 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 123.6% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 27.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-30,618 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $163.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $163-169.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $169.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $165.00 (1.0σ) | $1,760 | $-29,197 | +$8,913 | +$1,716 |
| +2.5% | $169.12 (1.3σ) | $110 | $-28,991 | +$9,119 | +$66 |
| +5% | $173.25 (1.5σ) | $-1,540 | $-28,785 | +$9,325 | -$1,584 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-21,840 | $-26,247 | +$11,863 | -$21,884 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$163 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$2.10/sh | +$839 cycle +$2,819 [-$268…+$1,151] · 65% credit | 73% surv 54% | -$28,872 NOT cap gain +$9,238 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$166 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.64/sh | +$255 cycle +$2,235 [-$934…+$537] · 40% credit | 74% surv 58% | -$28,331 NOT cap gain +$9,779 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$162 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.11/sh | -$45 cycle +$1,935 [-$1,137…+$204] · 31% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$30,147 NOT cap gain +$7,963 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$4.36/sh | -$1,742 cycle +$238 [-$3,266…-$1,618] · 3% credit | 83% surv 76% | -$24,703 NOT cap gain +$13,407 |
| budget: banked $1,980 debit $1,742 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$238 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $3,800/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +33% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 66% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,069/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,796 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 128.2% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 28.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-30,748 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $160.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $161-168.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $168.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $162.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,980 | $-30,102 | +$8,008 | +$1,936 |
| +2.5% | $166.56 (1.1σ) | $355 | $-29,899 | +$8,211 | +$311 |
| +5% | $170.62 (1.4σ) | $-1,270 | $-29,696 | +$8,414 | -$1,314 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-22,620 | $-27,027 | +$11,083 | -$22,664 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$163 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.73/sh | +$218 cycle +$1,973 [-$781…+$184] · 32% credit | 74% surv 59% | -$29,707 NOT cap gain +$8,403 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$160 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.02/sh | -$5 cycle +$1,750 [-$919…-$42] · 23% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$31,446 NOT cap gain +$6,664 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$181 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$5.76/sh | -$1,729 cycle +$26 [-$3,135…-$1,908] | 86% surv 82% | -$23,779 NOT cap gain +$14,331 |
| budget: banked $1,755 debit $1,729 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,069/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,581/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +18% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,247/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,827 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 99.0% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 21.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-23,038 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $158.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $158-166.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $166.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $160.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,755 | $-31,442 | +$6,668 | +$1,722 |
| +2.5% | $164.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $555 | $-30,842 | +$7,268 | +$522 |
| +5% | $168.00 (1.2σ) | $-645 | $-30,242 | +$7,868 | -$678 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-17,445 | $-21,841 | +$16,269 | -$17,478 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$155 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$33 cycle +$1,623 [-$666…-$179] · 15% credit | 71% surv 52% | -$33,812 NOT cap gain +$4,298 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$161 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$27 cycle +$1,617 [-$745…-$210] · 15% credit | 76% surv 63% | -$31,177 NOT cap gain +$6,933 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$156 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$19 cycle +$1,609 [-$665…-$189] · 15% credit | 72% surv 54% | -$33,435 NOT cap gain +$4,675 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$183 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$7.01/sh | -$1,402 cycle +$188 [-$2,558…-$1,789] | 90% surv 89% | -$22,481 NOT cap gain +$15,629 |
| budget: banked $1,590 debit $1,402 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$188 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $861/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,962/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,650/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,798 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 69.4% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 15.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-15,369 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $153.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $153-163.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $163.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $155.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,590 | $-33,846 | +$4,264 | +$1,568 |
| +2.5% | $158.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $815 | $-32,877 | +$5,233 | +$793 |
| +5% | $162.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $40 | $-31,908 | +$6,202 | +$18 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-12,210 | $-16,595 | +$21,515 | -$12,232 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$152 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$50 cycle +$1,860 [-$742…-$259] · 12% credit | 71% surv 53% | -$34,700 NOT cap gain +$3,410 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$158 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$42 cycle +$1,852 [-$831…-$302] · 12% credit | 76% surv 63% | -$32,067 NOT cap gain +$6,043 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$153 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.18/sh | +$35 cycle +$1,845 [-$737…-$266] · 12% credit | 72% surv 54% | -$34,324 NOT cap gain +$3,786 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$181 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$6.90/sh | -$1,379 cycle +$431 [-$2,674…-$1,866] | 90% surv 89% | -$23,363 NOT cap gain +$14,747 |
| budget: banked $1,810 debit $1,379 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$431 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $847/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,788/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +21% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 61% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,476/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,078 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 71.0% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 15.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-15,404 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $150.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $151-162.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $162.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $152.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,810 | $-34,750 | +$3,360 | +$1,788 |
| +2.5% | $156.31 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,048 | $-33,797 | +$4,313 | +$1,026 |
| +5% | $160.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $285 | $-32,844 | +$5,266 | +$263 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-12,490 | $-16,875 | +$21,235 | -$12,512 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$150 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.34/sh | +$67 cycle +$2,097 [-$855…-$320] · 8% credit | 71% surv 53% | -$35,588 NOT cap gain +$2,522 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$151 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$51 cycle +$2,081 [-$848…-$325] · 7% credit | 72% surv 54% | -$35,213 NOT cap gain +$2,897 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$156 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.28/sh | +$56 cycle +$2,086 [-$956…-$374] · 7% credit | 76% surv 63% | -$32,958 NOT cap gain +$5,152 |
| SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$178 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$6.78/sh | -$1,357 cycle +$673 [-$2,872…-$1,928] | 90% surv 89% | -$24,246 NOT cap gain +$13,864 |
| budget: banked $2,030 debit $1,357 (67% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$673 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $833/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,612/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,600/mo) | +36% |
| vs normal income ($11,200/mo) | 68% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,358 |
| … as % of IC ($17,000) | 72.7% |
| … as % of ML ($77,000) | 16.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-15,449 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $148.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $148-161.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $161.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $150.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,030 | $-35,656 | +$2,454 | +$2,008 |
| +2.5% | $153.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,280 | $-34,718 | +$3,392 | +$1,258 |
| +5% | $157.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $530 | $-33,780 | +$4,330 | +$508 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $224.00 (4.8σ) | $-12,770 | $-17,155 | +$20,955 | -$12,792 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$69 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.63/sh | +$980 cycle +$1,538 [+$793…+$1,111] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$48,961 NOT cap gain +$6,263 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$75 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.56/sh | +$335 cycle +$893 [-$93…+$433] · 68% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$46,231 NOT cap gain +$8,993 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$77 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$93 cycle +$651 [-$382…+$175] · 38% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$45,663 NOT cap gain +$9,561 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$74 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$46 cycle +$604 [-$299…+$103] · 34% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$47,330 NOT cap gain +$7,894 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.91/sh | -$546 cycle +$12 [-$1,144…-$492] · 6% credit | 81% surv 79% | -$44,142 NOT cap gain +$11,082 |
| budget: banked $558 debit $546 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,919/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,092/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -25% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,041/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,151 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 314.8% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 71.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,248 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $68.31 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $68-69.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $69.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $69.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $558 | $-49,941 | +$5,283 | +$528 |
| +2.5% | $70.72 (1.0σ) | $-477 | $-50,044 | +$5,180 | -$507 |
| +5% | $72.45 (1.2σ) | $-1,512 | $-50,148 | +$5,076 | -$1,542 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-42,972 | $-54,294 | +$930 | -$28,872 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$66 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.64/sh | +$984 cycle +$1,770 [+$767…+$1,038] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$50,079 NOT cap gain +$5,145 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$72 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.66/sh | +$395 cycle +$1,181 [-$78…+$361] · 67% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$47,563 NOT cap gain +$7,661 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$74 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$96 cycle +$882 [-$433…+$38] · 27% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$46,782 NOT cap gain +$8,442 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$71 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$53 cycle +$839 [-$328…+$3] · 25% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$48,445 NOT cap gain +$6,779 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.16/sh | -$695 cycle +$91 [-$1,395…-$824] · 1% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$43,793 NOT cap gain +$11,431 |
| budget: banked $786 debit $695 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,568/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,948/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,896/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$51,423 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 322.8% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 73.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.2 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,275 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $65.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $66-67.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $67.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $66.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $786 | $-51,063 | +$4,161 | +$756 |
| +2.5% | $68.16 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-211 | $-51,163 | +$4,061 | -$242 |
| +5% | $69.83 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,209 | $-51,262 | +$3,962 | -$1,239 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-44,244 | $-55,566 | -$342 | -$30,144 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$61 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.64/sh | +$981 cycle +$2,673 [+$687…+$823] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$52,146 NOT cap gain +$3,078 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$66 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.97/sh | +$583 cycle +$2,275 [-$14…+$314] · 74% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$49,979 NOT cap gain +$5,245 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$69 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$91 cycle +$1,783 [-$637…-$213] · 9% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$48,851 NOT cap gain +$6,373 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$66 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$61 cycle +$1,753 [-$445…-$145] · 8% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$50,501 NOT cap gain +$4,723 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.61/sh | -$969 cycle +$723 [-$2,053…-$1,393] | 90% surv 90% | -$43,431 NOT cap gain +$11,793 |
| budget: banked $1,692 debit $969 (57% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$723 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $886/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,345/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | +127% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 114% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,294/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$53,817 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 337.8% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 77.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.6 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,443 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $60.39 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $60-64.19 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $64.19 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $61.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,692 | $-53,127 | +$2,097 | +$1,662 |
| +2.5% | $62.52 (≤1σ, normal week) | $777 | $-53,218 | +$2,006 | +$747 |
| +5% | $64.05 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-138 | $-53,310 | +$1,914 | -$168 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-46,638 | $-57,960 | -$2,736 | -$32,538 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.35/sh | +$810 cycle +$840 | 66% surv 53% | -$37,239 NOT cap gain +$17,985 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$94 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.26/sh | +$158 cycle +$188 | 69% surv 59% | -$36,676 NOT cap gain +$18,548 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$98 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.32/sh | +$192 cycle +$222 | 73% surv 66% | -$34,482 NOT cap gain +$20,742 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$99 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.01/sh | -$7 cycle +$23 | 74% surv 68% | -$34,141 NOT cap gain +$21,083 |
| budget: banked $30 debit $7 (22% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,760/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-939/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$36,879 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 231.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 52.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.6 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,320 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $91.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $91-92.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $92.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $92.00 (3.1σ) | $30 | $-38,049 | +$17,175 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $94.30 (3.3σ) | $-1,350 | $-38,187 | +$17,037 | -$1,380 |
| +5% | $96.60 (3.5σ) | $-2,730 | $-38,325 | +$16,899 | -$2,760 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-29,700 | $-41,022 | +$14,202 | -$15,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.39/sh | +$834 cycle +$864 | 66% surv 53% | -$38,295 NOT cap gain +$16,929 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$92 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.31/sh | +$185 cycle +$215 | 69% surv 59% | -$37,729 NOT cap gain +$17,495 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$18 cycle +$48 | 74% surv 68% | -$35,196 NOT cap gain +$20,028 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-939/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,079 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 239.0% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 54.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.8 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,233 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-90.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (2.9σ) | $30 | $-39,129 | +$16,095 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (3.1σ) | $-1,320 | $-39,264 | +$15,960 | -$1,350 |
| +5% | $94.50 (3.3σ) | $-2,670 | $-39,399 | +$15,825 | -$2,700 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-30,900 | $-42,222 | +$13,002 | -$16,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.43/sh | +$857 cycle +$887 | 66% surv 53% | -$39,352 NOT cap gain +$15,872 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$90 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.35/sh | +$210 cycle +$240 | 69% surv 59% | -$38,784 NOT cap gain +$16,440 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$40 cycle +$70 | 74% surv 68% | -$36,254 NOT cap gain +$18,970 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-939/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,279 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 246.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 56.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,338 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $87.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $87-88.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $88.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $88.00 (2.7σ) | $30 | $-40,209 | +$15,015 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $90.20 (2.9σ) | $-1,290 | $-40,341 | +$14,883 | -$1,320 |
| +5% | $92.40 (3.1σ) | $-2,610 | $-40,473 | +$14,751 | -$2,640 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-32,100 | $-43,422 | +$11,802 | -$18,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.46/sh | +$878 cycle +$908 | 66% surv 53% | -$40,411 NOT cap gain +$14,813 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.39/sh | +$233 cycle +$263 | 69% surv 59% | -$39,841 NOT cap gain +$15,383 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$61 cycle +$91 | 74% surv 68% | -$37,313 NOT cap gain +$17,911 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $112/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-939/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,479 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 254.1% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 57.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.3 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,314 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $85.14 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $85-86.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $86.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $86.00 (2.5σ) | $30 | $-41,289 | +$13,935 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $88.15 (2.7σ) | $-1,260 | $-41,418 | +$13,806 | -$1,290 |
| +5% | $90.30 (2.9σ) | $-2,550 | $-41,547 | +$13,677 | -$2,580 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-33,300 | $-44,622 | +$10,602 | -$19,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.48/sh | +$888 cycle +$948 | 66% surv 53% | -$40,911 NOT cap gain +$14,313 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.41/sh | +$244 cycle +$304 | 69% surv 59% | -$40,340 NOT cap gain +$14,884 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$6 cycle +$66 | 75% surv 69% | -$37,608 NOT cap gain +$17,616 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $225/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-826/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,049 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 257.7% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 58.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.4 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,359 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $84.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-85.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $85.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $85.00 (2.4σ) | $60 | $-41,799 | +$13,425 | +$30 |
| +2.5% | $87.12 (2.6σ) | $-1,215 | $-41,926 | +$13,298 | -$1,245 |
| +5% | $89.25 (2.8σ) | $-2,490 | $-42,054 | +$13,170 | -$2,520 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-33,870 | $-45,192 | +$10,032 | -$19,770 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.50/sh | +$897 cycle +$951 [+$1,010…+$1,428] · 100% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$41,448 NOT cap gain +$13,776 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$88 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$6 cycle +$60 [-$118…+$429] · 66% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$40,314 NOT cap gain +$14,910 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$92 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$15 cycle +$69 [-$179…+$515] · 63% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$38,145 NOT cap gain +$17,079 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $202/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-849/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,655 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 261.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 59.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.5 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,317 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $83.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $83-84.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $84.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $84.00 (2.3σ) | $54 | $-42,345 | +$12,879 | +$24 |
| +2.5% | $86.10 (2.5σ) | $-1,206 | $-42,471 | +$12,753 | -$1,236 |
| +5% | $88.20 (2.7σ) | $-2,466 | $-42,597 | +$12,627 | -$2,496 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-34,476 | $-45,798 | +$9,426 | -$20,376 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.51/sh | +$906 cycle +$966 [+$957…+$1,434] · 100% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$41,973 NOT cap gain +$13,251 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$16 cycle +$76 [-$155…+$439] · 63% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$40,838 NOT cap gain +$14,386 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$91 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$24 cycle +$84 [-$243…+$509] · 63% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$38,670 NOT cap gain +$16,554 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $225/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-826/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,249 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 265.2% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 60.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.6 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,365 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $82.17 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $82-83.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $83.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $83.00 (2.2σ) | $60 | $-42,879 | +$12,345 | +$30 |
| +2.5% | $85.07 (2.4σ) | $-1,185 | $-43,004 | +$12,220 | -$1,215 |
| +5% | $87.15 (2.6σ) | $-2,430 | $-43,128 | +$12,096 | -$2,460 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-35,070 | $-46,392 | +$8,832 | -$20,970 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.55/sh | +$930 cycle +$1,038 [+$914…+$1,409] · 98% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$43,521 NOT cap gain +$11,703 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$84 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$45 cycle +$153 [-$149…+$439] · 62% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$42,381 NOT cap gain +$12,843 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$47 cycle +$155 [-$232…+$502] · 61% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$40,219 NOT cap gain +$15,005 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $405/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -85% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-646/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$44,001 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 276.2% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 62.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,281 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-80.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.00 (1.9σ) | $108 | $-44,451 | +$10,773 | +$78 |
| +2.5% | $82.00 (2.1σ) | $-1,092 | $-44,571 | +$10,653 | -$1,122 |
| +5% | $84.00 (2.3σ) | $-2,292 | $-44,691 | +$10,533 | -$2,322 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-36,822 | $-48,144 | +$7,080 | -$22,722 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.57/sh | +$943 cycle +$1,081 [+$858…+$1,352] · 99% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$44,558 NOT cap gain +$10,666 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.52/sh | +$311 cycle +$449 [+$19…+$671] · 76% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$41,815 NOT cap gain +$13,409 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$62 cycle +$200 [-$180…+$353] · 57% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$43,414 NOT cap gain +$11,810 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$59 cycle +$197 [-$276…+$411] · 55% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$41,257 NOT cap gain +$13,967 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $518/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -81% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 9% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-534/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,171 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 283.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 64.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.1 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,311 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.7σ) | $138 | $-45,501 | +$9,723 | +$108 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.9σ) | $-1,032 | $-45,618 | +$9,606 | -$1,062 |
| +5% | $81.90 (2.1σ) | $-2,202 | $-45,735 | +$9,489 | -$2,232 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-37,992 | $-49,314 | +$5,910 | -$23,892 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.59/sh | +$955 cycle +$1,153 [+$828…+$1,304] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$45,566 NOT cap gain +$9,658 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.53/sh | +$320 cycle +$518 [-$28…+$629] · 72% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$42,826 NOT cap gain +$12,398 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$70 cycle +$268 [-$339…+$362] · 46% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$42,266 NOT cap gain +$12,958 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.02/sh | +$10 cycle +$208 [-$291…+$237] · 42% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$43,946 NOT cap gain +$11,278 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$85 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.23/sh | -$136 cycle +$62 [-$587…+$140] · 34% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$41,932 NOT cap gain +$13,292 |
| budget: banked $198 debit $136 (69% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,888/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $742/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-309/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,311 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 290.7% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 66.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.3 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,254 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.24 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $75-76.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $76.00 (1.5σ) | $198 | $-46,521 | +$8,703 | +$168 |
| +2.5% | $77.90 (1.7σ) | $-942 | $-46,635 | +$8,589 | -$972 |
| +5% | $79.80 (1.9σ) | $-2,082 | $-46,749 | +$8,475 | -$2,112 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-39,132 | $-50,454 | +$4,770 | -$25,032 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.60/sh | +$960 cycle +$1,164 [+$858…+$1,232] · 99% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$46,095 NOT cap gain +$9,129 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.54/sh | +$324 cycle +$528 [+$20…+$615] · 76% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$43,356 NOT cap gain +$11,868 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$75 cycle +$279 [-$273…+$352] · 56% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$42,795 NOT cap gain +$12,429 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$80 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$16 cycle +$220 [-$238…+$228] · 48% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$44,474 NOT cap gain +$10,750 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.22/sh | -$130 cycle +$74 [-$515…+$144] · 36% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$42,460 NOT cap gain +$12,764 |
| budget: banked $204 debit $130 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,857/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $765/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -73% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-286/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,905 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 294.4% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 67.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.4 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,275 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $74.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $74-75.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $75.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $75.00 (1.4σ) | $204 | $-47,055 | +$8,169 | +$174 |
| +2.5% | $76.88 (1.6σ) | $-921 | $-47,168 | +$8,056 | -$951 |
| +5% | $78.75 (1.8σ) | $-2,046 | $-47,280 | +$7,944 | -$2,076 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-39,726 | $-51,048 | +$4,176 | -$25,626 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.61/sh | +$964 cycle +$1,222 [+$848…+$1,299] · 99% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$46,577 NOT cap gain +$8,647 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.54/sh | +$327 cycle +$585 [-$9…+$640] · 74% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$43,839 NOT cap gain +$11,385 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$79 cycle +$337 [-$334…+$379] · 52% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$43,277 NOT cap gain +$11,947 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$22 cycle +$280 [-$282…+$250] · 44% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$44,954 NOT cap gain +$10,270 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$84 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.33/sh | -$200 cycle +$58 [-$664…+$85] · 31% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$42,476 NOT cap gain +$12,748 |
| budget: banked $258 debit $200 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,699/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $968/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-84/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,451 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 297.9% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 67.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.5 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,254 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $73.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-74.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $74.00 (1.3σ) | $258 | $-47,541 | +$7,683 | +$228 |
| +2.5% | $75.85 (1.5σ) | $-852 | $-47,652 | +$7,572 | -$882 |
| +5% | $77.70 (1.7σ) | $-1,962 | $-47,763 | +$7,461 | -$1,992 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-40,272 | $-51,594 | +$3,630 | -$26,172 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$73 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.61/sh | +$968 cycle +$1,238 [+$843…+$1,228] · 99% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$47,101 NOT cap gain +$8,123 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$329 cycle +$599 [-$33…+$591] · 72% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$44,365 NOT cap gain +$10,859 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$83 cycle +$353 [-$320…+$311] · 48% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$43,801 NOT cap gain +$11,423 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$28 cycle +$298 [-$270…+$202] · 44% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$45,476 NOT cap gain +$9,748 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$195 cycle +$75 [-$649…+$25] · 26% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$42,999 NOT cap gain +$12,225 |
| budget: banked $270 debit $195 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,667/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,012/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-39/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,039 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 301.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 68.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.6 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,320 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-73.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $73.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.00 (1.2σ) | $270 | $-48,069 | +$7,155 | +$240 |
| +2.5% | $74.82 (1.4σ) | $-825 | $-48,178 | +$7,046 | -$855 |
| +5% | $76.65 (1.6σ) | $-1,920 | $-48,288 | +$6,936 | -$1,950 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-40,860 | $-52,182 | +$3,042 | -$26,760 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.62/sh | +$972 cycle +$1,314 [+$828…+$1,218] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$47,565 NOT cap gain +$7,659 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$78 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.55/sh | +$331 cycle +$673 [-$28…+$556] · 73% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$44,831 NOT cap gain +$10,393 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$86 cycle +$428 [-$325…+$281] · 47% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$44,266 NOT cap gain +$10,958 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$77 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$33 cycle +$375 [-$271…+$176] · 43% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$45,939 NOT cap gain +$9,285 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.32/sh | -$190 cycle +$152 [-$656…-$14] · 25% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$43,462 NOT cap gain +$11,762 |
| budget: banked $342 debit $190 (56% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$152 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,634/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,282/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -54% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 23% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $231/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$48,567 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 304.9% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 69.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.7 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,239 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $71.28 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $71-72.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $72.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $72.00 (1.1σ) | $342 | $-48,537 | +$6,687 | +$312 |
| +2.5% | $73.80 (1.3σ) | $-738 | $-48,645 | +$6,579 | -$768 |
| +5% | $75.60 (1.5σ) | $-1,818 | $-48,753 | +$6,471 | -$1,848 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-41,388 | $-52,710 | +$2,514 | -$27,288 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$71 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.63/sh | +$975 cycle +$1,383 [+$803…+$1,183] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$48,036 NOT cap gain +$7,188 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$77 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.56/sh | +$333 cycle +$741 [-$87…+$481] · 67% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$45,303 NOT cap gain +$9,921 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$89 cycle +$497 [-$377…+$234] · 39% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$44,737 NOT cap gain +$10,487 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$76 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.06/sh | +$38 cycle +$446 [-$304…+$144] · 36% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$46,408 NOT cap gain +$8,816 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.58/sh | -$349 cycle +$59 [-$909…-$228] · 14% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$43,555 NOT cap gain +$11,669 |
| budget: banked $408 debit $349 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,328/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,530/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -45% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $479/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,101 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 308.2% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 70.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.8 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,350 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $70.29 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $70-71.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $71.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $71.00 (1.0σ) | $408 | $-49,011 | +$6,213 | +$378 |
| +2.5% | $72.77 (1.2σ) | $-657 | $-49,118 | +$6,106 | -$687 |
| +5% | $74.55 (1.4σ) | $-1,722 | $-49,224 | +$6,000 | -$1,752 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-41,922 | $-53,244 | +$1,980 | -$27,822 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$70 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.63/sh | +$978 cycle +$1,446 [+$803…+$1,142] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$48,513 NOT cap gain +$6,711 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$76 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.56/sh | +$334 cycle +$802 [-$77…+$441] · 69% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$45,782 NOT cap gain +$9,442 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$78 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$91 cycle +$559 [-$367…+$184] · 38% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$45,215 NOT cap gain +$10,009 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$75 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$42 cycle +$510 [-$301…+$104] · 35% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$46,884 NOT cap gain +$8,340 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$81 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.57/sh | -$344 cycle +$124 [-$897…-$275] · 12% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$44,030 NOT cap gain +$11,194 |
| budget: banked $468 debit $344 (73% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,296/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,755/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -37% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $704/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,641 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 311.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 71.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,386 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $69.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $69-71.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $71.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $70.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $468 | $-49,491 | +$5,733 | +$438 |
| +2.5% | $71.75 (1.1σ) | $-582 | $-49,596 | +$5,628 | -$612 |
| +5% | $73.50 (1.3σ) | $-1,632 | $-49,701 | +$5,523 | -$1,662 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-42,462 | $-53,784 | +$1,440 | -$28,362 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$68 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.64/sh | +$981 cycle +$1,563 [+$796…+$1,135] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$49,206 NOT cap gain +$6,018 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$75 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.56/sh | +$335 cycle +$917 [-$106…+$424] · 65% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$46,477 NOT cap gain +$8,747 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$76 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$94 cycle +$676 [-$392…+$175] · 37% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$45,908 NOT cap gain +$9,316 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$73 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$47 cycle +$629 [-$311…+$98] · 34% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$47,575 NOT cap gain +$7,649 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.90/sh | -$542 cycle +$40 [-$1,163…-$488] · 6% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$44,384 NOT cap gain +$10,840 |
| budget: banked $582 debit $542 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,904/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,182/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -22% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,131/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,427 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 316.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 72.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,392 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $67.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $68-69.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $69.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $68.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $582 | $-50,187 | +$5,037 | +$552 |
| +2.5% | $70.21 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-445 | $-50,290 | +$4,934 | -$475 |
| +5% | $71.92 (1.1σ) | $-1,473 | $-50,392 | +$4,832 | -$1,503 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-43,248 | $-54,570 | +$654 | -$29,148 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$68 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.64/sh | +$982 cycle +$1,462 [+$773…+$1,114] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$49,577 NOT cap gain +$5,647 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$74 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.56/sh | +$335 cycle +$815 [-$116…+$387] · 65% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$46,849 NOT cap gain +$8,375 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$76 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$94 cycle +$574 [-$405…+$131] · 35% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$46,280 NOT cap gain +$8,944 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$73 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$49 cycle +$529 [-$316…+$55] · 32% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$47,945 NOT cap gain +$7,279 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$79 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.56/sh | -$334 cycle +$146 [-$932…-$337] · 12% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$45,088 NOT cap gain +$10,136 |
| budget: banked $480 debit $334 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$146 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,230/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -35% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 32% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $749/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$50,829 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 319.1% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 72.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.1 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,347 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $67.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $67-69.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $69.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $68.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $480 | $-50,559 | +$4,665 | +$450 |
| +2.5% | $69.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-540 | $-50,661 | +$4,563 | -$570 |
| +5% | $71.40 (1.1σ) | $-1,560 | $-50,763 | +$4,461 | -$1,590 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-43,650 | $-54,972 | +$252 | -$29,550 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$68 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.64/sh | +$983 cycle +$1,517 [+$772…+$1,072] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$49,792 NOT cap gain +$5,432 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$74 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.56/sh | +$335 cycle +$869 [-$126…+$362] · 62% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$47,065 NOT cap gain +$8,159 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$75 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$95 cycle +$629 [-$414…+$92] · 32% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$46,495 NOT cap gain +$8,729 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$50 cycle +$584 [-$320…+$44] · 30% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$48,160 NOT cap gain +$7,064 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$78 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.55/sh | -$332 cycle +$202 [-$945…-$358] · 9% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$45,302 NOT cap gain +$9,922 |
| budget: banked $534 debit $332 (62% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$202 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,213/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,002/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -28% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $951/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$51,075 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 320.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 73.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.2 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,437 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $66.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $67-68.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $68.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $67.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $534 | $-50,775 | +$4,449 | +$504 |
| +2.5% | $69.19 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-478 | $-50,876 | +$4,348 | -$508 |
| +5% | $70.88 (1.0σ) | $-1,491 | $-50,978 | +$4,246 | -$1,521 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-43,896 | $-55,218 | +$6 | -$29,796 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$67 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.64/sh | +$983 cycle +$1,685 [+$769…+$1,043] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$49,894 NOT cap gain +$5,330 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$73 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.56/sh | +$334 cycle +$1,036 [-$148…+$302] · 60% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$47,168 NOT cap gain +$8,056 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$75 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$95 cycle +$797 [-$439…+$42] · 28% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$46,597 NOT cap gain +$8,627 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$72 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$52 cycle +$754 [-$338…+$6] · 26% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$48,260 NOT cap gain +$6,964 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.16/sh | -$698 cycle +$4 [-$1,408…-$809] · 2% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$43,610 NOT cap gain +$11,614 |
| budget: banked $702 debit $698 (99% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,582/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,632/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | -6% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,581/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$51,207 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 321.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 73.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.2 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,287 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $66.33 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $66-68.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $68.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $67.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $702 | $-50,877 | +$4,347 | +$672 |
| +2.5% | $68.67 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-303 | $-50,978 | +$4,246 | -$333 |
| +5% | $70.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,308 | $-51,078 | +$4,146 | -$1,338 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-44,028 | $-55,350 | -$126 | -$29,928 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$66 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.64/sh | +$984 cycle +$1,830 [+$749…+$1,011] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$50,289 NOT cap gain +$4,935 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$72 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.66/sh | +$394 cycle +$1,240 [-$118…+$340] · 64% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$47,774 NOT cap gain +$7,450 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$74 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$96 cycle +$942 [-$481…+$11] · 25% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$46,992 NOT cap gain +$8,232 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$71 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$54 cycle +$900 [-$363…-$18] · 24% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$48,654 NOT cap gain +$6,570 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.41/sh | -$845 cycle +$1 [-$1,659…-$997] | 87% surv 86% | -$43,073 NOT cap gain +$12,151 |
| budget: banked $846 debit $845 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,296/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,172/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,121/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$51,663 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 324.3% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 73.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.3 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-55,356 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $65.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $65-67.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $67.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $66.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $846 | $-51,273 | +$3,951 | +$816 |
| +2.5% | $67.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-144 | $-51,372 | +$3,852 | -$174 |
| +5% | $69.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,134 | $-51,471 | +$3,753 | -$1,164 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-44,484 | $-55,806 | -$582 | -$30,384 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.64/sh | +$820 cycle +$1,625 [+$622…+$810] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$51,029 NOT cap gain +$4,195 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$71 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.65/sh | +$327 cycle +$1,132 [-$100…+$235] · 61% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$48,417 NOT cap gain +$6,807 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$73 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$80 cycle +$885 [-$399…-$32] · 22% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$47,584 NOT cap gain +$7,640 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$70 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$47 cycle +$852 [-$295…-$33] · 20% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$49,237 NOT cap gain +$5,987 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$83 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.49/sh | -$745 cycle +$60 [-$1,430…-$925] | 88% surv 87% | -$43,009 NOT cap gain +$12,215 |
| budget: banked $805 debit $745 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$60 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $979/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,019/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,978/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,453 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 272.8% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 62.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-46,055 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-66.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $66.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $805 | $-51,849 | +$3,375 | +$780 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-8 | $-51,784 | +$3,440 | -$32 |
| +5% | $68.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-820 | $-51,719 | +$3,505 | -$845 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-37,470 | $-51,142 | +$4,082 | -$25,720 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$62 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.64/sh | +$655 cycle +$1,615 [+$474…+$570] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$52,654 NOT cap gain +$2,570 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$67 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.98/sh | +$392 cycle +$1,352 [+$28…+$238] · 79% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$50,352 NOT cap gain +$4,872 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$70 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$62 cycle +$1,022 [-$383…-$119] · 12% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$49,062 NOT cap gain +$6,162 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$67 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$40 cycle +$1,000 [-$272…-$82] · 11% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$50,704 NOT cap gain +$4,520 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$82 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.63/sh | -$652 cycle +$308 [-$1,316…-$900] | 90% surv 90% | -$43,296 NOT cap gain +$11,928 |
| budget: banked $960 debit $652 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$308 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $607/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | +29% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,569/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,646 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 223.8% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 51.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.4 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-36,966 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $61.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $61-64.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $64.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $62.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $960 | $-53,309 | +$1,915 | +$940 |
| +2.5% | $63.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $340 | $-53,092 | +$2,132 | +$320 |
| +5% | $65.10 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-280 | $-52,875 | +$2,349 | -$300 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-30,860 | $-46,882 | +$8,342 | -$21,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$60 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.63/sh | +$490 cycle +$1,450 | 67% surv 54% | -$53,759 NOT cap gain +$1,465 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$65 | 14 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$10 cycle +$970 | 75% surv 69% | -$51,674 NOT cap gain +$3,550 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$68 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$29 cycle +$989 | 78% surv 73% | -$50,035 NOT cap gain +$5,189 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$80 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$1.62/sh | -$485 cycle +$475 | 91% surv 90% | -$44,069 NOT cap gain +$11,155 |
| budget: banked $960 debit $485 (51% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$475 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $420/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,790/mo) | +29% |
| vs normal income ($5,580/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,579/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,095 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 170.1% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 38.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.9 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-27,672 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $59.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $59-63.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $63.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $60.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $960 | $-54,249 | +$975 | +$945 |
| +2.5% | $61.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $510 | $-54,024 | +$1,200 | +$495 |
| +5% | $63.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $60 | $-53,664 | +$1,560 | +$45 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (7.9σ) | $-23,505 | $-41,877 | +$13,347 | -$16,455 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $5.03 | $7.35 | $0.06 | $0.06 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.97 OTM. The $0.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $7.35 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (22d) | $379.59 | $505.00 | $5.57 | $5.57 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 95.41 OTM. The $5.57 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,985 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $505.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) | $114.41 | $126.30 | $0.95 | $0.95 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.59 OTM = 9.3% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $0.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$625 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $126.30 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) | $162.75 | $181.89 | $1.52 | $1.52 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.25 OTM. The $1.52 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,604 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $179.10 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) | $10.45 | $16.07 | - | - | OK | expiring OTM, penny buyback at the close, then re-sell |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $336.78 | $352.35 | $2.60 | $2.60 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.22 OTM = 3.9% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $2.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,450 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $352.35 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $336.78 | $352.31 | $2.60 | $2.60 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.22 OTM = 3.9% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $2.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,132 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $352.31 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $193.06 | $211.74 | $0.55 | $0.55 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.94 OTM = 8.8% (3.1x a typical daily move). The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$846 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $211.74 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $162.75 | $187.68 | $2.45 | $2.45 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 22.25 OTM. The $2.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,108 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $187.68 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $637.5C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $540.33 | $654.07 | $10.71 | $10.71 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 97.17 OTM = 18.0% (3.9x a typical daily move). The $10.71 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,955 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $654.07 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) | $16.92 | $20.75 | $0.11 | $0.11 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.58 OTM. The $0.11 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,013 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $20.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $355C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $326.84 | $362.70 | $7.94 | $7.94 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.16 OTM = 8.6% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $7.94 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$765 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $362.70 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $95.45 | $113.05 | $1.79 | $1.79 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.55 OTM. The $1.79 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,200 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $113.05 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $95.45 | $113.08 | $1.79 | $1.79 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.55 OTM. The $1.79 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,028 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $113.08 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) | $162.75 | $198.70 | $2.33 | $2.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.25 OTM. The $2.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,095 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $198.70 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (22d) | $374.33 | $396.32 | $2.34 | $2.34 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.67 OTM. The $2.34 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,268 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $396.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (50d) | $112.19 | $124.07 | $8.55 | $8.55 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.81 OTM = 7.0% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $8.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,022 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.07 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (50d) | $336.78 | $374.80 | $5.15 | $5.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 33.22 OTM = 9.9% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $5.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,375 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $374.80 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| IGV ↗ | Main:1299 | 12 | $92.60 | $85.33 | 0.0% | $98 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · 85% survhist 99% | 30%hist 13% | $660 | $2,475/mo (38%) | $6,480/mo | sell 12x $98 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $85.33. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: banked so far already lowers the effective floor to $84.63; selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.55/sh → floor ~$84.08 next cycle, ~$83.53 the cycle after. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| SPY ↗ BORDERLINE 29% | Neville:0865 | 12 | $733.66 | $698.05 | 0.0% | $744 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · 81% survhist 99% | 37%hist 18% | $912 | $6,840/mo (34%) | $20,064/mo | sell 12x $744 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $698.05. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: banked so far already lowers the effective floor to $696.55; selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.76/sh → floor ~$695.79 next cycle, ~$695.03 the cycle after. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| MU-LC670 ↗ | Joint:1782 | 1 | $752.99 | $821.05 | 9.0% | $825 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · 81% survhist 99% | 38%hist 18% | $900 | $6,750/mo (62%) | $10,927/mo | sell 1x $825 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $821.05. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: selling the 🎯 banks ~$9.00/sh → floor ~$812.05 next cycle, ~$803.05 the cycle after. Whole ~30 Aug on the 🎯 income alone, never selling below the floor. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| AMZN ↗⚡ER TODAY | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.43 | $248.89 | 6.6% | $250 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · 81% survhist 99% ⚡ CROSSES EARNINGS | 38%hist 18% | $1,380 | $10,350/mo (82%) | $12,640/mo | sell 10x $250 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $248.89. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: banked so far already lowers the effective floor to $244.25; selling the 🎯 banks ~$1.38/sh → floor ~$242.87 next cycle, ~$241.49 the cycle after. Whole ~14 Sep on the 🎯 income alone, never selling below the floor. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Headroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $24.96 | $17.47 | +42.9% |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $16.92 | $39.13 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $16.92 | $30.29 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 44.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $16.92 | $44.46 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| ETHA | Main:1299 | 50 | $14.46 | $17.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 16.6% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $36.53 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC20-1782 | Joint:1782 | 50 | $10.45 | $24.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 57.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250 | $10.45 | $26.40 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 60.4% below BE SS |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50 | $17.13 | 50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (22d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (22d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $350C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $370C 18 Sep 2026 (50d) |
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200 | $22.69 | 200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)] |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $355C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $638C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10 | $108.93 | 10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (50d) |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (8d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (1d) |
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $12.45 | 25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (15d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 130 | 55% | 72% | +16pp |
| 60-70% | 196 | 64% | 72% | +8pp |
| 70-80% | 259 | 76% | 96% | +20pp |
| 80-90% | 305 | 84% | 96% | +12pp |
| 90-100% | 528 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 28% touch rate over 1418 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 110 real buyback(s) recorded · 42 roll(s), net +$1.08/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 42 real rolls: buyback $4.25/sh, replacement credit financed 126% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.08/sh (28 of 42 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.