FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 13 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 9 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 18 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $105,855/mo (52% of normal target)

⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these

MARA 2026-07-29 · 16d

Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped click a fortress for the full decision dashboard

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	🎯 Recommended	Chal odds	Per cycle	Income/mo	Floor	Net/mo	Banked	POP	Cap @ CC-SS	Rec (mo)
COIN-LC165 ↗	Main:1299	8	$155.88	$214.07	37.3%	Sell 8 x $172.50 (4d) [This Fri]	9%	$1,376	$10,320	103%	$9,752	$456	94%	-$31,881 (237.2% IC)	1.6
QCOM ↗	RetireInc:7291	5	$182.77	$220.01	20.4%	Sell 5 x $200 (4d) [This Fri]	9%	$1,130	$8,475	102%	$8,041	$846	95%	-$8,873 (52.2% IC)	0.5
RKLB ↗	RetireInc:7291	6	$78.56	$145.79	85.6%	Sell 6 x $87.50 (4d) [This Fri]	11%	$756	$5,670	117%	$5,407	-	94%	-$34,219 (214.8% IC)	3.5
BMNR ↗	RetireInc:7291	50	$14.88	$19.15	28.7%	Sell 41 x $16.50 (4d) [This Fri]	11%	$697	$5,228	102%	$5,348	-	92%	-$10,182 (32.6% IC)	1.0
CLSK ↗	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.37	$16.75	35.4%	Sell 18 x $14 (4d) [This Fri]	12%	$468	$3,510	103%	$3,529	-	94%	-$4,486 (48.0% IC)	0.7
IREN-LC50 ↗	RetireInc:7291	20	$39.90	$66.30	66.2%	Sell 18 x $46 (4d) [This Fri]	13%	$1,494	$11,205	100%	$9,884	$451	93%	-$35,047 (255.8% IC)	1.6
IREN-LC45 ↗	Neville:0865	20	$39.90	$57.46	44.0%	Sell 18 x $46 (4d) [This Fri]	13%	$1,494	$11,205	100%	$10,241	$1,473	93%	-$19,143 (319.0% IC)	0.9
GLD ↗ ⚐	Main:1299	5	$371.97	$465.11	25.0%	Sell 5 x $383 (4d) [This Fri]	13%	$940	$7,050	111%	$6,513	$248	95%	-$40,117 (59.0% IC)	3.1
MSTR ↗	RetireInc:7291	4	$92.88	$167.51	80.3%	Sell 4 x $103 (4d) [This Fri]	14%	$528	$3,960	112%	$3,614	-	93%	-$25,275 (526.6% IC)	3.6
GLXY ↗ ⚐	Main:1299	25	$24.32	$32.74	34.6%	Sell 21 x $27.50 (4d) [This Fri]	14%	$840	$6,300	102%	$6,311	-	92%	-$10,162 (183.9% IC)	0.8
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗	Main:1299	200	$12.32	$17.85	45.0%	Sell 131 x $13.50 (4d) [This Fri]	18%	$3,144	$23,580	101%	$23,768	-	91%	-$53,882 (709.0% IC)	1.1
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗	Joint:1782	50	$12.32	$18.79	52.6%	Sell 33 x $13.50 (4d) [This Fri]	19%	$792	$5,940	101%	$5,986	-	91%	-$16,665 (77.0% IC)	1.4
ETHA ↗	Main:1299	50	$13.41	$17.53	30.7%	Sell 35 x $14 (4d) [This Fri]	21%	$455	$3,413	102%	$2,809	-	89%	-$11,896 (54.9% IC)	1.8
TOTAL (13)		468						$14,114	$105,855	103%	$101,203	$3,474		-$301,825

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 20 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 1 watch · 1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
META	Main:1299	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)	$659.45	$653.94	$61.16	$31.16	TRIPPED ▸	🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $30.00/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $31.16 is live theta (~$9,348). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs.
SPY	Neville:0865	12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (2d)	$750.07	$760.59	$0.88	$0.88	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.93 OTM. The $0.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$653 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $760.59 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , SPY is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run `fortress_fight.py --tickers SPY`.
APP	RetireInc:7291	1x $600C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$506.00	$604.35	$0.95	$0.95	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 94.00 OTM. The $0.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$430 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $604.35 (breakeven).
GLD	Main:1299	5x $390C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$372.29	$391.35	$0.55	$0.55	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.71 OTM. The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$651 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $388.05 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
NEM	Main:1299	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$93.15	$100.66	$0.68	$0.68	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.85 OTM. The $0.68 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$306 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $99.50 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
COPX	Joint:1782	20x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$75.24	$81.90	$0.37	$0.37	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.26 OTM. The $0.37 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$700 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $81.09 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$44.25	$50.95	$0.51	$0.51	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.75 OTM. The $0.51 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$902 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $50.95 (breakeven).
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$422.44	$489.83	$4.60	$4.60	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 57.56 OTM. The $4.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,933 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $489.83 (breakeven).
CRWV	Neville:0865	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$85.97	$101.02	$0.85	$0.85	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.03 OTM. The $0.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$487 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.02 (breakeven).
RIOT	Joint:1782	50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$20.52	$24.65	$0.12	$0.12	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.98 OTM. The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$512 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $24.38 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
SPCX	Neville:0865	5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$142.83	$176.09	$0.39	$0.39	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.17 OTM. The $0.39 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$521 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $176.09 (breakeven).
GLXY	Main:1299	100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$24.32	$30.21	$0.16	$0.16	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.68 OTM. The $0.16 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,554 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $29.85 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
IREN-LC25	Main:1299	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$39.90	$50.45	$0.30	$0.30	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.10 OTM. The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $49.75 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
IREN-LC25	Joint:1782	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$39.90	$50.45	$0.30	$0.30	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.10 OTM. The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $49.75 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2x $1155C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$921.10	$1,162.85	$6.41	$6.41	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 233.90 OTM. The $6.41 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,560 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,162.85 (breakeven).
IGV	Main:1299	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$92.38	$100.97	$0.36	$0.36	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.62 OTM. The $0.36 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,104 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.97 (breakeven).
NVDA	Neville:0865	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$206.85	$226.60	$1.62	$1.62	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.15 OTM. The $1.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$775 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $226.60 (breakeven).
MDB	Neville:0865	1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$341.60	$417.85	$2.02	$2.02	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 68.40 OTM. The $2.02 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$780 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $417.85 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$33.87	$48.79	$0.28	$0.28	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.13 OTM. The $0.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,110 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.79 (breakeven).
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)	$18.53	$23.27	$0.20	$0.20	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.47 OTM. The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$770 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.27 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
MARA-LC25 ↗	Neville:0865	250	$12.32	$13.93	13.1%	$14 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 94% surv	13%	$3,500	$26,250/mo (45%)	$58,636/mo	sell 250x $14 CC
COIN-LC145 ↗	RetireInc:7291	3	$155.88	$183.67	17.8%	$185 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · 86% surv	28%	$1,080	$1,800/mo (24%)	$7,507/mo	sell 3x $185 CC
AMZN ↗	Joint:1782	10	$243.84	$234.61	0.0%	$252.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 86% surv	29%	$1,640	$12,300/mo (68%)	$18,000/mo	sell 10x $252.50 CC
NOW ↗	Main:1299	10	$107.90	$112.42	4.2%	$114 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 83% surv	34%	$1,140	$8,550/mo (46%)	$18,682/mo	sell 10x $114 CC
GOOG-LC310 ↗	Joint:1782, Main:1299	15	$352.42	$334.36	0.0%	$362.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 83% surv	34%	$4,095	$30,713/mo (55%)	$56,045/mo	sell 15x $362.50 CC
GOOG-LC300 ↗	Neville:0865	15	$352.42	$332.41	0.0%	$362.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 83% surv	34%	$4,095	$30,713/mo (55%)	$56,045/mo	sell 15x $362.50 CC
INTC ↗	Neville:0865	5	$105.20	$109.62	4.2%	$113 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 82% surv	38%	$1,675	$12,562/mo (86%)	$14,591/mo	sell 5x $113 CC
MU-LC880 ↗	Main:1299	5	$919.80	$974.57	6.0%	$995 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 80% surv	40%	$20,675	$155,062/mo (110%)	$140,659/mo	sell 5x $995 CC
GOOG-LC340 ↗	Neville:0865	5	$352.42	$365.64	3.8%	$375 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · 80% surv	41%	$2,475	$6,750/mo (36%)	$18,682/mo	sell 5x $375 CC

CAPPED: 18 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $600C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $82C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$56.15	10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (11d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IREN-LC25	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
IREN-LC25	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1155C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)
RIOT	Joint:1782	50	$23.65	50x $24C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$15.75	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 596 of 1726 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	20	58%	55%	-3pp
60-70%	63	64%	68%	+4pp
70-80%	108	77%	94%	+17pp
80-90%	158	85%	99%	+14pp
90-100%	247	95%	100%	+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 32% avg vs realized 16% touch rate over 596 resolved (daily-close proxy, undercounts intraday touches).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 31 real buyback(s) recorded · 6 roll(s), net +$0.50/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-13 13:35