FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 14 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 8 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 18 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $105,060/mo (52% of normal target)

⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these

BMNR 2026-07-14 · TOMGOOG 2026-07-23 · 10dNOW 2026-07-23 · 10dINTC 2026-07-24 · 11dGLXY 2026-07-28 · 15dMARA 2026-07-29 · 16dQCOM 2026-07-30 · 17dAMZN 2026-07-31 · 18dCOIN 2026-07-31 · 18dMSTR 2026-07-31 · 18d

Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped click a fortress for the full decision dashboard

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	🎯 Recommended	Chal odds	Per cycle	Income/mo	Floor	Net/mo	Banked	POP	Cap @ CC-SS	Rec (mo)
GLD ↗ ⚐	Main:1299	5	$372.39	$465.93	25.1%	Sell 5 x $385 (4d) [This Fri]	9%	$710	$5,325	109%	$4,788	$248	96%	-$39,757 (58.5% IC)	4.1
BMNR ↗	RetireInc:7291	50	$14.81	$19.09	28.9%	Sell 41 x $16.50 (4d) [This Fri]	10%	$697	$5,228	102%	$5,348	-	93%	-$9,938 (31.8% IC)	1.0
COIN-LC145 ↗	RetireInc:7291	3	$157.22	$186.23	18.5%	Sell 3 x $172.50 (4d) [This Fri]	10%	$516	$3,870	106%	$3,669	$432	93%	-$3,604 (60.7% IC)	0.5
COIN-LC165 ↗	Main:1299	8	$157.22	$215.79	37.3%	Sell 8 x $172.50 (4d) [This Fri]	11%	$1,376	$10,320	106%	$9,752	$456	93%	-$33,253 (247.4% IC)	1.7
MSTR ↗	RetireInc:7291	4	$92.71	$166.51	79.6%	Sell 4 x $103 (4d) [This Fri]	13%	$528	$3,960	112%	$3,614	-	93%	-$24,878 (518.3% IC)	3.5
QCOM ↗	RetireInc:7291	5	$185.09	$224.01	21.0%	Sell 5 x $200 (4d) [This Fri]	14%	$1,130	$8,475	117%	$8,041	$846	93%	-$10,875 (64.0% IC)	0.7
RKLB ↗	RetireInc:7291	6	$80.50	$148.48	84.4%	Sell 5 x $88.50 (4d) [This Fri]	14%	$530	$3,975	100%	$3,713	-	91%	-$29,459 (184.9% IC)	3.7
CLSK ↗	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.46	$16.80	34.8%	Sell 18 x $14 (4d) [This Fri]	14%	$468	$3,510	103%	$3,529	-	93%	-$4,566 (48.8% IC)	0.7
GLXY ↗ ⚐	Main:1299	25	$24.35	$32.86	34.9%	Sell 21 x $27.50 (4d) [This Fri]	14%	$840	$6,300	102%	$6,311	-	92%	-$10,408 (188.4% IC)	0.8
IREN-LC50 ↗	RetireInc:7291	20	$40.32	$67.06	66.3%	Sell 17 x $46 (4d) [This Fri]	16%	$1,411	$10,582	102%	$9,286	$451	91%	-$34,393 (251.0% IC)	1.7
IREN-LC45 ↗	Neville:0865	20	$40.32	$58.52	45.1%	Sell 17 x $46 (4d) [This Fri]	16%	$1,411	$10,582	102%	$9,624	$1,473	91%	-$19,870 (331.2% IC)	1.0
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗	Main:1299	200	$12.43	$17.99	44.7%	Sell 131 x $13.50 (4d) [This Fri]	21%	$3,144	$23,580	101%	$23,768	-	89%	-$55,677 (732.6% IC)	1.2
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗	Joint:1782	50	$12.43	$18.93	52.3%	Sell 33 x $13.50 (4d) [This Fri]	22%	$792	$5,940	101%	$5,986	-	89%	-$17,119 (79.1% IC)	1.5
ETHA ↗	Main:1299	50	$13.43	$17.55	30.6%	Sell 35 x $14 (4d) [This Fri]	23%	$455	$3,413	102%	$2,809	-	89%	-$11,975 (55.3% IC)	1.8
TOTAL (14)		471						$14,008	$105,060	104%	$100,238	$3,906		-$305,773

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 20 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 1 watch · 1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
META	Main:1299	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)	$665.95	$653.94	$61.16	$25.09	TRIPPED ▸	🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $36.07/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $25.09 is live theta (~$7,528). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs.
SPY	Neville:0865	12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (2d)	$752.64	$760.59	$0.88	$0.88	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.30 OTM. The $0.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$653 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $760.59 (breakeven).
APP	RetireInc:7291	1x $600C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$506.98	$604.35	$0.95	$0.95	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 93.02 OTM. The $0.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$430 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $604.35 (breakeven).
GLD	Main:1299	5x $390C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$372.45	$391.35	$0.55	$0.55	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.55 OTM. The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$651 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $388.05 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
NEM	Main:1299	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$94.03	$100.66	$0.68	$0.68	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.97 OTM. The $0.68 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$306 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $99.50 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
COPX	Joint:1782	20x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$75.61	$81.90	$0.37	$0.37	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.89 OTM. The $0.37 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$700 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $81.09 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$428.75	$489.83	$4.60	$4.60	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 51.25 OTM. The $4.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,933 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $489.83 (breakeven).
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$44.08	$50.95	$0.51	$0.51	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.92 OTM. The $0.51 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$902 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $50.95 (breakeven).
CRWV	Neville:0865	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$87.24	$101.02	$0.85	$0.85	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.76 OTM. The $0.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$487 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.02 (breakeven).
RIOT	Joint:1782	50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$20.70	$24.65	$0.12	$0.12	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.80 OTM. The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$512 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $24.38 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
SPCX	Neville:0865	5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$143.90	$176.09	$0.39	$0.39	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.10 OTM. The $0.39 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$521 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $176.09 (breakeven).
GLXY	Main:1299	100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$24.35	$30.21	$0.16	$0.16	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.65 OTM. The $0.16 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,554 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $29.85 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2x $1155C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$936.00	$1,162.85	$6.41	$6.41	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 219.00 OTM. The $6.41 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,560 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,162.85 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25	Main:1299	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$40.32	$50.45	$0.30	$0.30	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.68 OTM. The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $49.75 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
IREN-LC25	Joint:1782	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$40.32	$50.45	$0.30	$0.30	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.68 OTM. The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $49.75 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
IGV	Main:1299	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$92.81	$100.97	$0.36	$0.36	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.19 OTM. The $0.36 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,104 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.97 (breakeven).
NVDA	Neville:0865	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$208.31	$226.60	$1.62	$1.62	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.69 OTM. The $1.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$775 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $226.60 (breakeven).
MDB	Neville:0865	1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$344.87	$417.85	$2.02	$2.02	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 65.13 OTM. The $2.02 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$780 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $417.85 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$34.06	$48.79	$0.28	$0.28	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.94 OTM. The $0.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,110 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.79 (breakeven).
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)	$19.16	$23.27	$0.20	$0.20	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.84 OTM. The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$770 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.27 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
GOOG-LC310 ↗	Joint:1782, Main:1299	15	$353.81	$338.28	0.0%	$365 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 85% surv	30%	$3,075	$23,062/mo (45%)	$51,136/mo	sell 15x $365 CC
GOOG-LC300 ↗	Neville:0865	15	$353.81	$336.24	0.0%	$365 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 85% surv	30%	$3,075	$23,062/mo (45%)	$51,136/mo	sell 15x $365 CC
NOW ↗	Main:1299	10	$108.78	$114.05	4.8%	$115 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 83% surv	34%	$960	$7,200/mo (41%)	$17,455/mo	sell 10x $115 CC
INTC ↗	Neville:0865	5	$106.75	$113.60	6.4%	$115 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 83% surv	35%	$1,350	$10,125/mo (93%)	$10,850/mo	sell 5x $115 CC
AMZN ↗	Joint:1782	10	$244.90	$237.86	0.0%	$252.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 82% surv	35%	$1,640	$12,300/mo (70%)	$17,527/mo	sell 10x $252.50 CC
GOOG-LC340 ↗	Neville:0865	5	$353.81	$373.51	5.6%	$377.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · 81% surv	39%	$2,175	$5,932/mo (35%)	$17,045/mo	sell 5x $377.50 CC
MARA-LC25 ↗	Neville:0865	250	$12.43	$14.12	13.6%	$14.50 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · 81% surv	40%	$10,750	$17,917/mo (31%)	$58,636/mo	sell 250x $14.50 CC
MU-LC880 ↗	Main:1299	5	$934.80	$1,007.33	7.8%	$1010 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 80% surv	41%	$18,025	$135,188/mo (129%)	$104,564/mo	sell 5x $1010 CC

CAPPED: 18 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $600C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $82C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$56.15	10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (11d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IREN-LC25	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
IREN-LC25	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1155C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)
RIOT	Joint:1782	50	$23.65	50x $24C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$15.75	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 596 of 1749 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	20	58%	55%	-3pp
60-70%	63	64%	68%	+4pp
70-80%	108	77%	94%	+17pp
80-90%	158	85%	99%	+14pp
90-100%	247	95%	100%	+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 32% avg vs realized 16% touch rate over 596 resolved (daily-close proxy, undercounts intraday touches).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 31 real buyback(s) recorded · 6 roll(s), net +$0.50/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-13 19:31