FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 14 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 8 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 18 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $80,486/mo (52% of normal target)

⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these

BMNR 2026-07-14 · TOMGOOG 2026-07-23 · 10dNOW 2026-07-23 · 10dINTC 2026-07-24 · 11dGLXY 2026-07-28 · 15dMARA 2026-07-29 · 16dQCOM 2026-07-30 · 17dAMZN 2026-07-31 · 18dCOIN 2026-07-31 · 18dMSTR 2026-07-31 · 18d

Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped click a fortress for the full decision dashboard

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	🎯 Recommended	Chal odds	Per cycle	Income/mo	Floor	Net/mo	Banked	POP	Cap @ CC-SS	Rec (mo)
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗	Joint:1782	50	$12.25	$19.03	55.4%	Sell 46 x $13.50 (4d) [This Fri]	22%	$552	$4,140	101%	$4,151	-	85%	-$24,898 (115.0% IC)	3.0
COIN-LC165 ↗	Main:1299	8	$157.95	$216.88	37.3%	Sell 7 x $170 (4d) [This Fri]	23%	$1,141	$8,558	105%	$8,115	$456	86%	-$31,678 (235.7% IC)	1.9
RKLB ↗	RetireInc:7291	6	$78.34	$147.92	88.8%	Sell 5 x $85 (4d) [This Fri]	23%	$490	$3,675	103%	$3,368	-	86%	-$30,969 (194.4% IC)	4.3
COIN-LC145 ↗	RetireInc:7291	3	$157.95	$188.08	19.1%	Sell 3 x $170 (4d) [This Fri]	23%	$489	$3,668	120%	$3,556	$432	86%	-$4,936 (83.1% IC)	0.8
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗	Main:1299	200	$12.25	$18.59	51.7%	Sell 182 x $13.50 (4d) [This Fri]	23%	$2,184	$16,380	100%	$16,429	-	85%	-$90,427 (1189.8% IC)	2.8
QCOM ↗	RetireInc:7291	5	$185.87	$228.13	22.7%	Sell 5 x $202.50 (4d) [This Fri]	25%	$515	$3,862	73%	$3,793	$846	89%	-$12,301 (72.4% IC)	1.2
MSTR ↗	RetireInc:7291	4	$91.23	$167.78	83.9%	Sell 4 x $99 (4d) [This Fri]	26%	$440	$3,300	116%	$2,926	-	85%	-$27,072 (564.0% IC)	4.8
IREN-LC50 ↗	RetireInc:7291	20	$41.09	$67.21	63.6%	Sell 19 x $47 (4d) [This Fri]	26%	$722	$5,415	68%	$3,967	$451	89%	-$37,683 (275.1% IC)	2.4
IREN-LC45 ↗	Neville:0865	20	$41.09	$59.16	44.0%	Sell 19 x $47 (4d) [This Fri]	26%	$722	$5,415	68%	$4,431	$1,473	89%	-$22,391 (373.2% IC)	1.4
CLSK ↗	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.41	$17.01	37.1%	Sell 16 x $13.50 (4d) [This Fri]	26%	$272	$2,040	103%	$2,065	-	84%	-$5,342 (57.1% IC)	1.4
BMNR ↗	RetireInc:7291	50	$14.52	$19.63	35.3%	Sell 35 x $16 (4d) [This Fri]	32%	$490	$3,675	67%	$3,604	-	87%	-$12,232 (39.1% IC)	1.1
ETHA ↗	Main:1299	50	$13.36	$18.03	34.9%	Sell 39 x $14 (4d) [This Fri]	35%	$234	$1,755	68%	$1,115	-	85%	-$15,472 (71.5% IC)	3.0
GLXY ↗ ⚐	Main:1299	25	$24.14	$32.96	36.6%	Sell 21 x $27 (4d) [This Fri]	35%	$483	$3,622	69%	$3,633	-	85%	-$12,038 (217.9% IC)	1.2
GLD ↗ ⚐	Main:1299	5	$370.75	$472.43	27.4%	Sell 5 x $384 (11d) [Next Fri]	40%	$855	$2,332	67%	$1,637	$248	83%	-$43,358 (63.8% IC)	6.3
TOTAL (14)		471						$9,589	$67,837	87%	$62,789	$3,906		-$370,797

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 20 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 1 watch · 7 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
META	Main:1299	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)	$662.64	$653.94	$55.35	$22.43	TRIPPED ▸	🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $32.92/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $22.43 is live theta (~$6,729). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs.
SPY	Neville:0865	12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (2d)	$753.13	$760.59	$0.53	$0.53	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.97 OTM. The $0.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$653 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $760.59 (breakeven).
GLD	Main:1299	5x $390C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$370.84	$391.35	$0.23	$0.23	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.16 OTM. The $0.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$651 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $388.05 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$43.10	$50.95	$0.20	$0.20	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.90 OTM. The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$902 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $50.95 (breakeven).
SPCX	Neville:0865	5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$140.35	$176.09	$0.23	$0.23	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 34.65 OTM. The $0.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$521 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $176.09 (breakeven).
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2x $1155C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$921.92	$1,162.85	$1.50	$1.50	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 233.08 OTM. The $1.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,560 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,162.85 (breakeven).
APP	RetireInc:7291	1x $600C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$466.02	$604.35	$0.20	$0.20	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 133.98 OTM. The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$430 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $604.35 (breakeven).
MDB	Neville:0865	1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$338.73	$417.85	$1.95	$1.95	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 71.27 OTM. The $1.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$780 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $417.85 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$34.41	$48.79	$0.17	$0.17	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.59 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,110 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.79 (breakeven).
NEM	Main:1299	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$93.75	$100.66	$0.32	$0.32	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.25 OTM. The $0.32 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$306 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $99.50 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
COPX	Joint:1782	20x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$75.75	$81.90	$0.22	$0.22	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.75 OTM. The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$700 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $81.09 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$427.00	$489.83	$2.56	$2.56	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 53.00 OTM. The $2.56 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,933 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $489.83 (breakeven).
CRWV	Neville:0865	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$85.41	$101.02	$0.30	$0.30	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.59 OTM. The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$487 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.02 (breakeven).
RIOT	Joint:1782	50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$20.23	$24.65	$0.08	$0.08	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.27 OTM. The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$512 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $24.38 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
IREN-LC25	Main:1299	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$41.11	$50.45	$0.18	$0.18	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.89 OTM. The $0.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $49.75 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
IREN-LC25	Joint:1782	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$41.11	$50.45	$0.18	$0.18	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.89 OTM. The $0.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $49.75 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
GLXY	Main:1299	100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)	$24.19	$30.21	$0.08	$0.08	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.81 OTM. The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,554 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $29.85 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
NVDA	Neville:0865	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$208.48	$226.60	$1.13	$1.13	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.52 OTM. The $1.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$775 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $226.60 (breakeven).
IGV	Main:1299	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)	$92.01	$100.97	$0.25	$0.25	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.99 OTM. The $0.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,104 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.97 (breakeven).
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)	$18.50	$23.27	$0.17	$0.17	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.50 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$770 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.27 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
AMZN ↗	Joint:1782	10	$247.44	$238.34	0.0%	$257.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 84% surv	32%	$860	$6,450/mo (66%)	$9,761/mo	sell 10x $257.50 CC
MARA-LC25 ↗	Neville:0865	250	$12.25	$14.41	17.7%	$14.50 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · 82% surv	38%	$7,500	$12,500/mo (31%)	$40,909/mo	sell 250x $14.50 CC
GOOG-LC310 ↗	Joint:1782, Main:1299	15	$353.94	$338.08	0.0%	$365 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 81% surv	38%	$2,085	$15,638/mo (34%)	$45,614/mo	sell 15x $365 CC
GOOG-LC300 ↗	Neville:0865	15	$353.94	$336.54	0.0%	$365 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 81% surv	38%	$2,085	$15,638/mo (34%)	$45,614/mo	sell 15x $365 CC
GOOG-LC340 ↗	Neville:0865	5	$353.94	$373.20	5.4%	$380 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · 81% surv	39%	$1,700	$4,636/mo (30%)	$15,205/mo	sell 5x $380 CC
MU-LC880 ↗	Main:1299	5	$925.59	$1,057.44	14.2%	$1060 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · 81% surv	40%	$10,000	$27,273/mo (39%)	$70,457/mo	sell 5x $1060 CC
INTC ↗	Neville:0865	5	$104.96	$116.70	11.2%	$120 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · 81% surv	40%	$1,525	$4,159/mo (49%)	$8,411/mo	sell 5x $120 CC
NOW ↗	Main:1299	10	$108.58	$112.23	3.4%	$115 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · 80% surv	40%	$990	$7,425/mo (42%)	$17,727/mo	sell 10x $115 CC

CAPPED: 18 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $600C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $82C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$56.15	10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (11d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IREN-LC25	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
IREN-LC25	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1155C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (11d)
RIOT	Joint:1782	50	$23.65	50x $24C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$15.75	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (18d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 (4d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 596 of 1797 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	20	58%	55%	-3pp
60-70%	63	64%	68%	+4pp
70-80%	108	77%	94%	+17pp
80-90%	158	85%	99%	+14pp
90-100%	247	95%	100%	+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 32% avg vs realized 16% touch rate over 596 resolved (daily-close proxy, undercounts intraday touches).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 31 real buyback(s) recorded · 6 roll(s), net +$0.50/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-13 22:11