FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 17 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 5 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 19 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $99,850/mo (52% of normal target)

⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these

BMNR 2026-07-14 · TODAYINTC 2026-07-24 · 10dGLXY 2026-07-28 · 14dENPH 2026-07-29 · 15dMARA 2026-07-29 · 15dQCOM 2026-07-30 · 16dCOIN 2026-07-31 · 17dMSTR 2026-07-31 · 17dRIOT 2026-07-31 · 17d

Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped click a fortress for the full decision dashboard

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	🎯 Recommended	Chal odds	Per cycle	Income/mo	Floor	Net/mo	Banked	POP	Cap @ CC-SS	Rec (mo)
SPCX ↗	Neville:0865	5	$137.94	$182.81	32.5%	Sell 5 x $152.50 (3d) [This Fri]	8%	$450	$4,500	117%	$4,500	-	92%	-$14,707 (108.9% IC)	1.9
CLSK ↗	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.20	$17.30	41.9%	Sell 22 x $14 (3d) [This Fri]	8%	$198	$1,980	104%	$1,985	-	92%	-$7,073 (75.6% IC)	1.9
BMNR ↗	RetireInc:7291	50	$14.40	$19.71	36.8%	Sell 38 x $16 (3d) [This Fri]	9%	$456	$4,560	102%	$4,465	-	94%	-$13,650 (43.7% IC)	1.5
COIN-LC165 ↗	Main:1299	8	$155.88	$216.00	38.6%	Sell 8 x $172.50 (3d) [This Fri]	10%	$776	$7,760	106%	$7,277	$456	92%	-$34,021 (253.1% IC)	2.3
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗	Main:1299	200	$12.06	$17.89	48.2%	Sell 192 x $13.50 (3d) [This Fri]	11%	$1,728	$17,280	100%	$17,304	-	92%	-$82,489 (1085.4% IC)	2.4
RKLB ↗	RetireInc:7291	6	$76.40	$147.88	93.6%	Sell 5 x $85 (3d) [This Fri]	11%	$310	$3,100	102%	$2,780	-	91%	-$31,130 (195.4% IC)	5.1
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗	Joint:1782	50	$12.06	$19.47	61.4%	Sell 48 x $13.50 (3d) [This Fri]	12%	$432	$4,320	100%	$4,326	-	92%	-$28,209 (130.3% IC)	3.3
CRWV ↗	Neville:0865	5	$83.30	$128.70	54.5%	Sell 5 x $92.50 (3d) [This Fri]	13%	$355	$3,550	120%	$3,400	$1,311	92%	-$17,745 (173.5% IC)	3.0
APP ↗	RetireInc:7291	1	$443.75	$603.13	35.9%	Sell 1 x $490 (3d) [This Fri]	13%	$250	$2,500	103%	$2,464	$415	91%	-$11,063 (86.4% IC)	2.3
IREN-LC50 ↗	RetireInc:7291	20	$39.00	$67.69	73.6%	Sell 20 x $45 (3d) [This Fri]	13%	$780	$7,800	104%	$6,327	$451	92%	-$44,596 (325.5% IC)	3.0
IREN-LC45 ↗	Neville:0865	20	$39.00	$59.03	51.4%	Sell 20 x $45 (3d) [This Fri]	13%	$780	$7,800	104%	$6,758	$1,473	92%	-$27,279 (454.6% IC)	1.8
MSTR ↗	RetireInc:7291	4	$91.88	$167.57	82.4%	Sell 4 x $102 (3d) [This Fri]	13%	$320	$3,200	119%	$2,831	-	91%	-$25,906 (539.7% IC)	4.8
MU-LC970 ↗	Neville:0865	2	$930.83	$1,245.41	33.8%	Sell 2 x $1045 (3d) [This Fri]	13%	$1,580	$15,800	104%	$15,404	$2,449	91%	-$38,502 (77.0% IC)	1.3
QCOM ↗	RetireInc:7291	5	$183.09	$227.74	24.4%	Sell 5 x $197.50 (3d) [This Fri]	15%	$570	$5,700	108%	$5,593	$846	90%	-$14,551 (85.6% IC)	1.4
ETHA ↗	Main:1299	50	$13.32	$17.74	33.2%	Sell 37 x $14 (3d) [This Fri]	16%	$222	$2,220	103%	$1,651	-	90%	-$13,601 (62.8% IC)	3.1
GLXY ↗ ⚐	Main:1299	25	$23.35	$33.14	41.9%	Sell 16 x $26 (3d) [This Fri]	16%	$400	$4,000	101%	$4,016	-	89%	-$11,030 (199.6% IC)	1.4
ENPH ↗	RetireInc:7291	10	$42.80	$58.59	36.9%	Sell 9 x $47 (3d) [This Fri]	17%	$378	$3,780	110%	$3,684	$806	88%	-$10,051 (137.7% IC)	1.5
TOTAL (17)		486						$9,985	$99,850	105%	$94,765	$8,206		-$425,604

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 21 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 1 watch · 6 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
META	Main:1299	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (17d)	$658.13	$653.94	$52.10	$24.00	TRIPPED ▸	🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $28.10/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $24.00 is live theta (~$7,200). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs.
SPY	Neville:0865	12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (1d)	$748.52	$760.59	$0.17	$0.17	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.38 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$653 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $760.59 (breakeven).
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$423.09	$489.83	$1.84	$1.84	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 56.91 OTM. The $1.84 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,933 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $489.83 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25	Main:1299	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$39.02	$50.45	$0.08	$0.08	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.98 OTM. The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $49.75 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
IREN-LC25	Joint:1782	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$39.02	$50.45	$0.08	$0.08	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.98 OTM. The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $49.75 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
GLXY	Main:1299	100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$23.32	$30.21	$0.04	$0.04	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.68 OTM. The $0.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,554 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $29.85 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
MDB	Neville:0865	1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)	$339.47	$417.85	$1.75	$1.75	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 70.53 OTM. The $1.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$780 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $417.85 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)	$34.36	$48.79	$0.20	$0.20	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.64 OTM. The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,110 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.79 (breakeven).
GLD	Main:1299	10x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$366.99	$379.86	$0.86	$0.86	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.01 OTM. The $0.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$810 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $377.11 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
AMZN	Joint:1782	10x $257.5C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$247.90	$258.45	$1.05	$1.05	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.60 OTM. The $1.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $258.45 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$351.38	$370.65	$0.55	$0.55	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.62 OTM. The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $370.65 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	15x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$351.38	$370.65	$0.55	$0.55	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.62 OTM. The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $370.65 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$351.38	$370.65	$0.55	$0.55	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.62 OTM. The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$300 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $370.65 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC310	Main:1299	10x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$351.38	$370.65	$0.55	$0.55	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.62 OTM. The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$600 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $370.65 (breakeven).
NEM	Main:1299	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$93.01	$100.66	$0.21	$0.21	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.99 OTM. The $0.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$306 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $99.50 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
COPX	Joint:1782	20x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$74.17	$81.90	$0.17	$0.17	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.33 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$700 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $81.09 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
NOW	Main:1299	10x $123C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$110.26	$123.45	$0.30	$0.30	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.74 OTM. The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$400 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $123.45 (breakeven).
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	5x $13.5C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)	$12.07	$13.61	$0.10	$0.10	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.43 OTM. The $0.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$31 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $13.43 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
IGV	Main:1299	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)	$92.18	$100.97	$0.35	$0.35	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.82 OTM. The $0.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,104 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.97 (breakeven).
NVDA	Neville:0865	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)	$204.15	$226.60	$0.61	$0.61	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 20.85 OTM. The $0.61 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$775 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $226.60 (breakeven).
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (17d)	$18.13	$23.27	$0.15	$0.15	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.87 OTM. The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$770 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.27 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
RIOT ↗	Joint:1782	50	$19.87	$21.12	6.3%	$22 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · 88% surv	24%	$900	$9,000/mo (63%)	$14,382/mo	sell 50x $22 CC
COIN-LC145 ↗	RetireInc:7291	3	$155.88	$187.14	20.1%	$187.50 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · 88% surv	26%	$747	$1,318/mo (24%)	$5,490/mo	sell 3x $187.50 CC
MARA-LC25 ↗	Neville:0865	245	$12.06	$13.69	13.5%	$14 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · 85% surv	31%	$4,900	$14,700/mo (35%)	$42,154/mo	sell 245x $14 CC
INTC ↗	Neville:0865	5	$102.30	$116.97	14.3%	$117 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · 83% surv	36%	$1,525	$4,575/mo (59%)	$7,788/mo	sell 5x $117 CC
MU-LC880 ↗	Main:1299	5	$930.83	$1,053.86	13.2%	$1060 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · 81% surv	40%	$11,325	$33,975/mo (45%)	$76,119/mo	sell 5x $1060 CC

CAPPED: 19 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $258C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $82C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC310	Main:1299	10	$392.50	10x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	15x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (10d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IREN-LC25	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC25	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (17d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $123C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$15.75	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (17d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (1d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 609 of 1880 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	21	58%	57%	-1pp
60-70%	67	64%	69%	+5pp
70-80%	111	77%	94%	+17pp
80-90%	161	85%	99%	+14pp
90-100%	249	95%	100%	+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 32% avg vs realized 16% touch rate over 609 resolved (daily-close proxy, undercounts intraday touches).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 34 real buyback(s) recorded · 6 roll(s), net +$0.50/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-14 03:38