FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 16 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 6 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 19 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $87,360/mo (53% of normal target)

⚠ EARNINGS WATCH , do not sell FIGHT income whose expiry crosses these

BMNR 2026-07-16 · 2dINTC 2026-07-24 · 10dGLXY 2026-07-28 · 14dENPH 2026-07-29 · 15dMARA 2026-07-29 · 15dQCOM 2026-07-30 · 16dCOIN 2026-07-31 · 17dMSTR 2026-07-31 · 17dRIOT 2026-07-31 · 17d

Red = an expiry you would sell already crosses earnings; amber = within 21 days. Click a fortress for the full banner and safe-tenor guidance.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped click a fortress for the full decision dashboard

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	🎯 Recommended	Chal odds	Per cycle	Income/mo	Floor	Net/mo	Banked	POP	Cap @ CC-SS	Rec (mo)
SPCX ↗	Neville:0865	5	$141.28	$182.37	29.1%	Sell 5 x $155 (3d) [This Fri]	12%	$450	$4,500	117%	$4,500	-	94%	-$13,233 (98.0% IC)	1.7
CRWV ↗	Neville:0865	5	$85.57	$128.58	50.3%	Sell 5 x $95 (3d) [This Fri]	13%	$285	$2,850	107%	$2,650	$1,311	91%	-$16,505 (161.4% IC)	3.1
COIN-LC165 ↗	Main:1299	8	$159.80	$215.51	34.9%	Sell 8 x $175 (3d) [This Fri]	13%	$752	$7,520	112%	$6,986	$456	88%	-$31,658 (235.5% IC)	2.4
RKLB ↗	RetireInc:7291	6	$79.77	$148.41	86.1%	Sell 6 x $88.50 (3d) [This Fri]	14%	$336	$3,360	107%	$3,035	-	89%	-$35,611 (223.5% IC)	5.7
COIN-LC145 ↗	RetireInc:7291	3	$159.80	$186.27	16.6%	Sell 3 x $175 (3d) [This Fri]	16%	$282	$2,820	112%	$2,493	$432	88%	-$3,098 (52.1% IC)	0.6
MSTR ↗	RetireInc:7291	4	$94.81	$167.63	76.8%	Sell 4 x $104 (3d) [This Fri]	17%	$268	$2,680	113%	$2,311	-	87%	-$25,182 (524.6% IC)	5.3
IREN-LC50 ↗	RetireInc:7291	20	$40.37	$67.43	67.0%	Sell 16 x $45 (3d) [This Fri]	19%	$640	$6,400	102%	$4,987	$451	85%	-$35,255 (257.3% IC)	2.8
IREN-LC45 ↗	Neville:0865	20	$40.37	$59.10	46.4%	Sell 16 x $45 (3d) [This Fri]	19%	$640	$6,400	102%	$5,201	$1,473	85%	-$21,916 (365.3% IC)	1.7
ETHA ↗	Main:1299	50	$14.12	$17.95	27.1%	Sell 50 x $15 (3d) [This Fri]	20%	$150	$1,500	67%	$941	-	91%	-$14,582 (67.4% IC)	3.3
MU-LC970 ↗	Neville:0865	2	$985.76	$1,238.16	25.6%	Sell 2 x $1080 (3d) [This Fri]	20%	$1,570	$15,700	107%	$15,221	$2,449	87%	-$30,063 (60.1% IC)	1.0
BMNR ↗	RetireInc:7291	50	$15.57	$19.69	26.5%	Sell 36 x $17 (3d) [This Fri]	20%	$432	$4,320	102%	$4,754	-	86%	-$9,250 (29.6% IC)	1.1
MARA-LC20-1782 ↗	Joint:1782	50	$12.36	$18.86	52.6%	Sell 41 x $13.50 (3d) [This Fri]	21%	$369	$3,690	102%	$3,717	-	84%	-$21,596 (99.8% IC)	3.0
MARA-LC20-1299 ↗	Main:1299	200	$12.36	$18.50	49.6%	Sell 161 x $13.50 (3d) [This Fri]	21%	$1,449	$14,490	100%	$14,607	-	84%	-$78,979 (1039.2% IC)	2.7
ENPH ↗	RetireInc:7291	10	$44.17	$58.87	33.3%	Sell 9 x $48 (3d) [This Fri]	26%	$387	$3,870	109%	$3,792	$806	84%	-$9,394 (128.7% IC)	1.3
GLXY ↗ ⚐	Main:1299	25	$24.15	$33.11	37.1%	Sell 16 x $26 (3d) [This Fri]	27%	$384	$3,840	102%	$3,872	-	85%	-$10,997 (199.0% IC)	1.5
APP ↗	RetireInc:7291	1	$439.03	$611.11	39.2%	Sell 1 x $482.50 (10d) [Next Fri]	35%	$870	$2,610	104%	$2,574	$415	80%	-$11,991 (93.7% IC)	2.4
TOTAL (16)		459						$9,264	$86,550	104%	$81,642	$7,792		-$369,310

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 21 active short call(s) 1 TRIPPED · 2 watch · 4 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

META

Main:1299

3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (17d)

$653.50

$653.94

$47.45

$25.16

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$374.63

$379.86

$1.98

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NEM

Main:1299

5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$97.48

$100.66

$1.04

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPY

Neville:0865

12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (1d)

$750.37

$760.59

$0.14

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$442.40

$489.83

$2.24

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)

$90.41

$100.97

$0.17

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)

$318.92

$417.85

$1.63

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

20x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$78.42

$81.90

$0.60

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

10x $257.5C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$244.09

$258.45

$0.43

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$350.46

$370.65

$0.42

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

15x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$350.46

$370.65

$0.42

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$350.46

$370.65

$0.42

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Main:1299

10x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$350.46

$370.65

$0.42

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MARA-LC25

Neville:0865

5x $13.5C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$12.52

$13.61

$0.21

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $123C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$102.75

$123.45

$0.33

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLXY

Main:1299

100x $30C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$24.29

$30.21

$0.24

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25

Main:1299

20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$40.43

$50.45

$0.13

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25

Joint:1782

20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)

$40.43

$50.45

$0.13

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)

$206.81

$226.60

$0.81

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HIMS

Main:1299

15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)

$34.50

$48.79

$0.60

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SOFI

RetireInc:7291

35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (17d)

$18.22

$23.27

$0.16

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
QCOM ↗	RetireInc:7291	5	$189.46	$228.61	20.7%	$230 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · 88% surv	25%	$1,040	$1,835/mo (19%)	$9,882/mo	sell 5x $230 CC
MARA-LC25 ↗	Neville:0865	245	$12.36	$15.21	23.1%	$15.50 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · 88% surv	25%	$3,185	$5,621/mo (16%)	$35,453/mo	sell 245x $15.50 CC
CLSK ↗	RetireInc:7291	25	$14.39	$17.90	24.4%	$18 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · 86% surv	29%	$550	$971/mo (24%)	$3,971/mo	sell 25x $18 CC
RIOT ↗	Joint:1782	50	$20.99	$20.70	0.0%	$23 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · 84% surv	32%	$600	$6,000/mo (49%)	$12,176/mo	sell 50x $23 CC
INTC ↗	Neville:0865	5	$107.05	$116.43	8.8%	$117 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · 84% surv	33%	$635	$6,350/mo (74%)	$8,596/mo	sell 5x $117 CC
MU-LC880 ↗	Main:1299	5	$985.76	$1,047.05	6.2%	$1065 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · 81% surv	39%	$5,125	$51,250/mo (70%)	$73,488/mo	sell 5x $1065 CC

CAPPED: 19 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $258C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $82C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $480C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $379C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC310	Main:1299	10	$392.50	10x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	15x $370C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $48C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $100C 24 Jul 2026 (10d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IREN-LC25	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC25	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $50C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $410C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (17d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $100C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $123C 17 Jul 2026 (3d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $225C 24 Jul 2026 (10d)
SOFI	RetireInc:7291	35	$15.75	35x $23C 31 Jul 2026 (17d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $760C 15 Jul 2026 (1d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 609 of 1947 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	21	58%	57%	-1pp
60-70%	67	64%	69%	+5pp
70-80%	111	77%	94%	+17pp
80-90%	161	85%	99%	+14pp
90-100%	249	95%	100%	+5pp

Touch odds: predicted 32% avg vs realized 16% touch rate over 609 resolved (daily-close proxy, undercounts intraday touches).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 34 real buyback(s) recorded · 6 roll(s), net +$0.50/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 --all | 2026-07-14 21:38